You are on page 1of 48

Updates

DDI 2008 <KO>
Santa Claus

Updates
Updates........................................................................................................................................................................................................1
Econ Low.....................................................................................................................................................................................................2
OCS – Won’t pass - Pelosi...........................................................................................................................................................................3
OCS – AT: Pelosi.........................................................................................................................................................................................4
OCS – AT: ↓ Oil...........................................................................................................................................................................................5
OCS – Pelosi Key........................................................................................................................................................................................6
OCS – Won’t Pass........................................................................................................................................................................................7
Global Warming !.........................................................................................................................................................................................8
C&T elections link.......................................................................................................................................................................................9
Auto Industry Weak...................................................................................................................................................................................10
Bioterror Now/Biodefense fails.................................................................................................................................................................11
No Bioterror – Research/Biodefense solves..............................................................................................................................................12
CA State DA Brink.....................................................................................................................................................................................13
(Solar/Wind) Tax Credits – GOP hates......................................................................................................................................................14
2NC OCS Tax Credit Tradeoff Link..........................................................................................................................................................15
AT: Prolif Deterrence (Middle East)......................................................................................................................................................16
Econ = Dead...............................................................................................................................................................................................17
Econ Low...................................................................................................................................................................................................18
Econ Collapse = Slow................................................................................................................................................................................19
Economy = Resilient .................................................................................................................................................................................20
Econ Collapse Inevitable...........................................................................................................................................................................21
Econ Low/AT: Fed.....................................................................................................................................................................................22
Econ Brink.................................................................................................................................................................................................23
Econ - Growing..........................................................................................................................................................................................24
New York Economy – Low........................................................................................................................................................................25
No Israel Strikes.........................................................................................................................................................................................26
No Strikes – Israel and US.........................................................................................................................................................................27
US opposes Israeli Strikes.........................................................................................................................................................................28
No Pol Cap.................................................................................................................................................................................................29

1

Updates
DDI 2008 <KO>
Santa Claus

Econ Low
Economy declining now – unemployment and slowing trade
New York Times 8-1-08, Michael M. Grynbaum and Floyd Norris contributed reporting, More Arrows Seen Pointing to a
Recession, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/01/business/01econ.html
The American economy expanded more slowly than expected from April to June, the government reported Thursday, while
numbers for the last three months of 2007 were revised downward to show a contraction — the first official slide
backward since the last recession in 2001. Economists construed the tepid growth in the second quarter, combined with a
surge in claims for unemployment benefits, as a clear indication that the economy remains mired in the weeds of a
downturn. Many said the data increased the likelihood that a recession began late last year. The next major piece of data
comes Friday, when the government is to release its monthly snapshot of the job market. Analysts expect the report to show a
loss of 75,000 jobs, signifying the seventh straight month of declines. “We already knew the economy was weak, and now
you have both a negative growth number coupled with job losses,” said Dean Baker, a director of the liberal Center for
Economic and Policy Research. “There’s a lot of real bad times to come.” President Bush zeroed in on the positive growth in
the second quarter — a 1.9 percent annual rate of expansion, compared with an anticipated 2.3 percent rate. That follows
growth of 0.9 percent in the first quarter. He claimed success for the $100 billion in tax rebates sent out by the government this
year in a bid to spur spending, along with $52 billion in tax cuts for businesses. “We got some positive news today,” the
president said in West Virginia, addressing a coal industry trade association. “It’s not as good as we’d like it to be but I want to
remind you a few months ago, there were predictions, and — that the economy would shrink this quarter, not grow.” But the
snapshot of disappointing economic growth released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday morning provided no
comfort to Wall Street, where a broad sell-off commenced. By the end of business, the Dow Jones industrial average was down
206 points to close at 11,378, a drop of nearly 2 percent. The rout may have been explained in part by significant changes the
government made to historical data on the profitability of American businesses. According to the revised numbers, corporate
profits earned in the United States by American companies rose much more swiftly than previously recorded from 2005
through 2007, making the recent decline appear much steeper. That the economy grew at all this spring is a testament to two
bright spots — increased consumer spending fueled by the tax rebates, and the continuing expansion of American exports.
Consumer spending, which amounts to 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate between April and June,
after growing at a meager 0.9 percent clip in the previous quarter. “Clearly the tax rebates did give some oomph to the
economy,” said Robert Barbera, chief economist at the research and trading firm ITG. Exports expanded at a 9.2 percent annual
pace in the second quarter, up from 5.1 percent in the first three months of the year. Foreign sales have been lubricated by the
weak dollar, which makes American-made goods cheaper on world markets. Adding to the improving trade picture, imports
dropped by 6.6 percent, as Americans tightened their spending. Imports are subtracted from economic growth, so the effect was
positive. Over all, trade added 2.42 percentage points to the growth rate from April to June. Without that contribution, the
economy would have contracted. But many economists are dubious that consumer spending and exports can keep growing
robustly in the face of substantial challenges that are now entrenched in the United States and are gathering force in many
other major economies. Japan and much of Europe appear headed into downturns, damping demand for American-
made products. “The trade improvement doesn’t look sustainable,” said Jan Hatzius, an economist at Goldman Sachs in
New York. “In an environment where the global economy is clearly slowing, you’re not being able to get that export
growth in future quarters.”

2

Updates
DDI 2008 <KO>
Santa Claus

OCS – Won’t pass - Pelosi
Pelosi will block OCS passage despite overwhelming pressure
Zachary Coile, Chronicle Washington Bureau, 7-31-08, Despite the pressure, Pelosi stays firm: No vote on offshore oil drilling,
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/31/MNSH122TA3.DTL

For weeks, pressure has been mounting in Congress to approve more domestic oil drilling, but House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi has held the line, using her power to block a vote on offshore drilling. President Bush has made almost daily calls
for Democratic leaders to take action. House GOP leaders, citing a new poll showing that a slim majority of Californians
now favor offshore drilling, issued a release today saying "even (Pelosi's) own California neighbors oppose her efforts to
block new drilling far off American coasts." GOP lawmakers are so disgruntled they're urging Bush to deny Congress its
August break by calling a special session on energy. Even some Democrats are getting antsy, fearing the party's stance
could hurt in the fall elections. But Pelosi, who has opposed offshore drilling throughout her two decades in Congress,
insists opening new areas to drilling won't lower gas prices in the short-term. She believes a vote would only help the
GOP blame Democrats for high gas prices. "I will not ... give the administration an excuse for its failure," Pelosi said at an
end-of-session roundtable interview today. Republicans have put a bull's eye on the federal moratorium on coastal drilling,
which has kept most of the East and West coasts off limits to new oil rigs since 1982. Bush announced earlier this month that
he would lift the presidential moratorium on drilling, and the GOP is now seeking to lift the congressional ban. Pelosi drew
derision from her critics for telling Politico this week that she was blocking a vote on offshore drilling because "I'm trying to
save the planet." But she elaborated on that theme today, saying she sees energy independence and fighting global warming
as "my flagship issue." She said she would use her power to resist a policy that could increase the country's oil dependency.
"I'm not going to be diverted for a political tactic from a course of action that has a big-picture view - a vision about an
energy independent future that reduces our dependence on fossil fuels ... and focuses on those renewables that are
protective of the environment," she said. Republicans are quietly gleeful at Pelosi's tactics, which have only breathed more life
into an issue the GOP is clinging to as a lifeline in an otherwise grim year for the party. Some House Republicans said today
that they will ask Bush to order a special session of Congress in August if lawmakers adjourn this week, as expected, without
voting on drilling. While a special session is unlikely, House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, made clear that his party
plans to use the issue as a bludgeon against Democrats throughout the five-week August recess. "A solid majority of
Americans want us to have more drilling for more American-made energy, and they aren't going to take no for an answer,"
Boehner said today. "Speaker Pelosi, Senators (Harry) Reid and (Barack) Obama are defying the will of the American
people, and they're doing so at their own risk."

3

Updates
DDI 2008 <KO>
Santa Claus

OCS – AT: Pelosi
OCS drilling will override Pelosi – 2/3 majority
Zachary Coile, Chronicle Washington Bureau, 7-31-08, Despite the pressure, Pelosi stays firm: No vote on offshore oil drilling,
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/31/MNSH122TA3.DTL
Some Democrats have already started to shift their views. Rep. Tim Holden, D-Pa., who voted two years ago against
drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and for a federal ban on offshore drilling, told a hometown paper last weekend
he now wants to "drill everywhere." A new CNN/Opinion Research poll released this week found that 69 percent of
Americans favor more offshore drilling, while 30 percent oppose it. But the poll found the public was split over whether
more coastal drilling would lower gas prices, with 51 percent saying yes and 49 percent saying no. But the poll's more
interesting finding was about who Americans blame for $4-a-gallon gas prices: About two-thirds said oil companies and
foreign countries that produce energy were the major causes. Just over half blamed the Bush administration, the war in Iraq and
the moratorium on offshore drilling. But only about 1 in 3 - 31 percent - blamed Democrats in Congress for high gas prices.
"Republicans feel like they have an opening because of the gas price issue (to push for) domestic drilling, but we haven't
seen any empirical evidence or tangible evidence that it's hurting Democrats," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the
nonpartisan Rothenberg Report, which tracks House and Senate races. "Maybe this fall the issue will develop into a
Republican advantage, but I don't see that we're there yet. It's a battle of messages between the two parties more than an anvil
around the necks of Democrats." Pelosi has been holding votes on measures aimed at addressing gas prices, such as legislation
to crack down on speculators in energy commodity markets and a measure to force Bush to release oil from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve. But here's the catch: The bills have won majority support, but failed to get the two-thirds backing
needed to pass under special rules Pelosi has used to keep Republicans from offering a drilling measure on the House
floor. Democratic leaders fear it might draw enough support to pass. The issue is likely to heat up again this fall.
Republicans are debating whether to shut down the federal government - by blocking a continuing resolution to keep the
government funded beyond Sept. 30 - if Democrats don't allow a vote on offshore drilling.

4

Borenstein says it might drop pump prices as much as 25 cents a gallon in 10 years or more. Reality Check On Offshore Drilling http://www. Supporters say when the bucket is running dry.that would be burned up in 16 months. Why? Because the leasing process is cumbersome.C. Most of the U.7 million barrels a day . "It would have a pretty modest effect even when it did start flowing. And currently.S." said U. almost 10 billion barrels. any little bit helps. Then there's this. there aren't enough rigs or workers or refineries to handle more oil. offshore oil. But at the current rate of U.shtml?source=mostpop_story According to the federal government's own Department of Energy.cbsnews.about 20. drilling off America's coasts would not have a significant impact on domestic oil production or prices before 2030. but: "I think it is very unlikely that we will ever see oil prices that get us back to $2 a gallon or even $3 a gallon.S. And off-shore leasing wouldn't even begin before 2012. Berkeley energy researcher Severin Borenstein. 7-30-08." Opponents of the drilling say what's off our shores is a drop in the bucket. 5 .Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus OCS – AT: ↓ Oil Offshore drilling won’t affect oil prices soon CBS. consumption . lie off the coast of California.com/stories/2008/07/30/eveningnews/main4309471.

The Not-So-Great Energy Debate. Sources on Capitol Hill tell me that the only thing holding the line on the bans right now is Pelosi's ability to block the vote. the ban is toast. The stakes are very high. 8-3-08. it's hard to convince folks that drilling today won't lower prices tomorrow. Yes. With the R's pressing this as their sole issue. she may not be able to control this one. and the majority of the public solidly in the "lift the ban" camp.com/jared-bernstein/the-not-so-great-energy-d_b_116618.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus OCS – Pelosi Key OCS will only pass if Pelosi lets it through Jared Bernstein. If that does occur. senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute. That's a bipartisan group of 10 Senators who propose a limited expansion of OCS leasing with a quid pro quo that both repeals a big tax break from big oil and makes them finally pay royalties they've been avoiding for drilling on public lands. and sources tell me if it comes to a vote. certainly on the OCS and maybe ANWR too.html The reason this is so critical is because our only hope of winning this debate may lie in helping people to unconnect the dots between lifting the moratorium and the price of gas. http://www. 6 . But how about NOT drilling today? Because that's what we're talking about here.huffingtonpost. our best move may be to go for something like the "gang of 10" compromise.

http://www. Although a compromise. “The President knows. Included are proposals to expand drilling in the Gulf to within 50 miles of Florida.artaug02.0. ‘but for drilling in protected areas offshore.” she continued. Republicans contend that it would reduce dependency on foreign oil imports and provide a bridge toward currently less economical renewable technology. that the impact of any new drilling will be insignificant – promising savings of only pennies per gallon many years down the road.courant. paint the problem as one we cannot drill our way out of. 8-2-08. and now he wants to say. with time running out on the congressional session. parties are stepping up attacks to highlight differences on issues such as energy policy. Additionally.com/news/nationworld/hc- energy0802. as his own Administration has stated. http://www. “The President has failed in his economic policy.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus OCS – Won’t Pass OCS won’t pass – Dems see it as a hoax ABC News. Bush Signs Housing Bill. Shortly after it was announced. the proposal's prospects appear a long shot for this year. and boost efforts to convert coal into motor vehicle fuel. 7 . our economy would be thriving and the price of gas would be lower. OCS won’t pass LA Times. potentially opening up a portion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and immediately moving toward renewable power sources like wind. help revive the nuclear industry.com/explorepolitics/?feed=bim&id=26115324 The president recently repealed the executive branch ban on drilling in the outer continental shelf (OCS) and has called on Congress to follow suit in repealing its own ban. And in a politically charged election year. solar and geothermal. Democrats have criticized the move toward domestic oil production as an environmental hazard and a solution that would take years and have little real impact at the pump.kcrg. But the Democratic leadership. Barack Obama.6146864. Senate Nears Energy Compromise. Asks for New Focus On Energy.” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Wednesday in response to the president’s comments. a number of the proposals remain controversial. the plan drew criticism from Florida's senators. including presidential candidate Sen.story However. 7-30-08. instead focusing their attention on curbing speculation in oil futures markets.’ That hoax is unworthy of the serious debate we must have to relieve the pain of consumers at the pump and to promote energy independence. Despite bipart.

” It’s sheer irresponsibility not to do whatever we can to eliminate that threat. Op-Ed. But that uncertainty is actually what makes action so urgent. Which risk would you rather run? Martin Weitzman. offers some sobering numbers.html?hp In themselves. It’s true that scientists don’t know exactly how much world temperatures will rise if we persist with business as usual.nytimes. Surveying a wide range of climate models. But the skirmish over drilling is the opening stage of a much bigger fight over environmental policy. there’s also a chance that we’ll fail to act only to find that the results of inaction were catastrophic. 8-1-08. that’s enough to “effectively destroy planet Earth as we know it.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Global Warming ! Global warming will destroy us if we don’t act now Paul Krugman. As Mr. Weitzman points out. above all.com/2008/08/01/opinion/01krugman. world temperatures will rise by 18 degrees Fahrenheit). professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University. 8 . limits on offshore drilling are only a modest-sized issue. they suggest about a 5 percent chance that world temperatures will eventually rise by more than 10 degrees Celsius (that is. While there’s a chance that we’ll act against global warming only to find that the danger was overstated. a Harvard economist who has been driving much of the recent high-level debate. is the question of whether we’ll take action against climate change before it’s utterly too late. http://www. he argues that. New York Times. Can This Planet Be Saved?. What’s at stake in that fight. over all.

and really would raise energy prices. 8-1-08. I just wish I had more confidence that she’s going to succeed. is if those who stand in the way of action come to be perceived as not just wrong but immoral. McCain’s energy posturing — that it was “the same old politics.” Mr. a cap-and-trade system would in effect be a tax on carbon (though Mr. 9 .nytimes. Obama gains environmentalists Paul Krugman. McCain apparently doesn’t know that). Can This Planet Be Saved?. major news organizations have pointed this out. professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University.com/2008/08/01/opinion/01krugman. McCain’s gambit seems nonetheless to be working: public support for ending restrictions on drilling has risen sharply. what are the chances of getting serious action against global warming? After all.html?hp Now for the bad news: sheer irresponsibility may be a winning political strategy. that’s why I was disappointed with Barack Obama’s response to Mr. Hence my concern: if a completely bogus claim that environmental protection is raising energy prices can get this much political traction. Yet Mr. I’d suggest. Incidentally. with roughly half of voters saying that increased offshore drilling would reduce gas prices within a year. I’m very glad to know that Nancy Pelosi is trying to save the planet. The only way we’re going to get action. New York Times. http://www. Obama was dismissive when he should have been outraged.McCain loses base. So as I said. McCain’s claim that opponents of offshore drilling are responsible for high gas prices is ridiculous — and to their credit. Mr.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus C&T elections link Cap and trade causes McCain to lose the election . Op-Ed.

3 billion for buyouts of hourly workers and $2.com/2008/08/02/business/02gm.V. As gas prices rose above $4 a gallon. more fuel-efficient cars.M.39 shortly before 1 p.M. or about 6 percent. Wagoner said the company would close four assembly plants making pickups and S. In June. the company’s international sales grew 10 percent. speculation grew among investors this summer that the automaker was running dangerously short on cash reserves.M. era.U.html The General Motors Corporation reported a stunning second-quarter loss of $15.M. reporter for the Detroit News and a former Business Week correspondent.8 billion related to the bankruptcy filing of its former parts unit.’s filing for bankruptcy protection. economy and auto market. Last week. G.7 billion to $19.’s vehicle sales in North America fell 20 percent in the quarter.V. And in a move that symbolized the end of the S. The company lost $4. also announced plans to add third shifts at two plants to increase the output of smaller cars. Mr.U.M.’s declined sharply in a market that was already trending downward. operations. Last month.S.’s that were once G.M. But while weak economic conditions and falling sales have affected nearly every automaker. particularly its performance in its core North American market. production. kept cutting.1 billion in special charges that included $3. Overall vehicle sales in the United States dropped 10 percent in the first six months. was surprised by the abrupt shift to smaller. The dismal earnings reflected the impact of steadily falling vehicles sales in the overall United States market. 10 .V.M.000 units of vehicle production.” Mr.M. and a huge shift by consumers away from the trucks and S.3 billion on operations in the quarter that ended June 30..V. as investors speculated openly about the possibility of G. Detroit’s three car companies have borne the brunt of the slowdown. In its second-quarter report.U. The automaker’s shares were off sharply on Friday.V.’s. said it lost $6.000 workers — or a quarter of its unionized work force — accepted the offers and agreed to leave the company. said Friday that the charges to scale down the automaker’s work force and manufacturing operations were critical in its restructuring.M. But even as G. Besides cutting truck and S. G. But the automaker is burning through about $1 billion a month in cash as it tries to keep financing new product programs amid falling sales and revenue. had begun a “strategic review” toward a likely sale of its Hummer brand. G. While G. Automakers are scheduled to report their July sales later on Friday.5 billion on Friday because of a dramatic decline in United States sales and charges for job cuts. About 19.’s United States sales dropped. the automaker announced broad plans for further cost cuts. But the company’s overall loss was inflated by $9.8 billion. and we continue to take the aggressive steps necessary to transform our U.5 Billion in Quarter.’s by 2010 and slash 500. 8-2-08. to $10.M.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Auto Industry Weak Auto Industry dying Bill Vlasic.7 billion as it took big write-downs on the values of its North American truck plants and its inventory of used pickups and S. sales of G. and the company’s inventories of unsold trucks forced it to scale back production in the United States dramatically. from $29.’s most profitable vehicles. “As our recent product.M.’s chairman. That compared with a profit of $92 million in the quarter a year ago. Mr. capacity and liquidity actions clearly demonstrate. Loses $15.4 billion in North America in the period. Wagoner said.S.’s second-quarter results were worse than projected by analysts.nytimes. While its overseas operations continued to perform well. plant closings and the falling value of trucks and sport utility vehicles. G.V.U. The automaker stepped up its cutbacks in the United States by offering another round of buyout and early retirement programs to its hourly workers. G. . we are reacting rapidly to the challenges facing the U.M.. http://www.m. G. and its worldwide revenues fell 18 percent.U. said it had $21 billion in cash reserves and access to another $5 billion in credit. New York Times. the Delphi Corporation. the largest American automaker. Wagoner said that G. like its Detroit rivals Ford and Chrysler.U. falling 68 cents.’s large pickups and S. asset sales and debt offerings to improve its liquidity by $15 billion. G.M. and its revenue dropped 33 percent. Rick Wagoner. G.M. the Ford Motor Company reported a loss of $8.

which are easily available and can be very destructive. Ivins. “There won’t be a rush to judgment. VaxGen of Brisbane.S. which killed five people." said Craig Vanderwagen.B. But the revelation that F. an assistant secretary at Health and Human Services who oversees the biodefense effort.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Bioterror Now/Biodefense fails High risk of bioterror attack now – biodefense increases risk.html?pagewanted=2 Today. might have been to draw public attention to a dire threat. More people in more places handling toxic agents create more opportunities for an accident or intentional misuse by an insider..I. scientist who has studied ways to trace a bioterrorist attack to its source. There also is insufficient federal oversight of biodefense facilities to make sure the laboratories follow security rules and report accidents that might threaten lab workers or. An anthrax vaccine he helped invent was slated to be added to the nation’s vaccine stockpile through an $877 million contract awarded in 2004.” Mr. though they said they were still weighing how and when to seek an end to the grand jury investigation. F. lead to a release that might endanger the public.” said Representative Bart Stupak. Afghanistan. Ivins had spent years working on moved from the laboratory to a proposed billion-dollar federal contract after the attacks. But the deal collapsed in late 2006 after the contractor. Ivins’s lawyer and some of the scientist’s colleagues that he was innocent. Rhodes testified. “That’s not a decision we’re going to make lightly. found that just two pounds of anthrax spores dropped over an American city could kill more than 100. an experimental vaccine Dr. 11 . Despite the insistence of Dr. taxpayer — and no risk. investigate it and respond with drugs.I. Mr.I.” said Randall S. Efforts on Bioterrorism. Rhodes testified.000 people. If that was the motive. for instance.I. Congressional investigators recently warned. Yazid Sufaat. New York Times. Ivins. officials at the Justice Department and the F. in a licensing agreement with the Army to produce the vaccine. no difficulty. Federal officials say they are convinced that the surge in spending has brought real gains. “One well-placed student. Murch. but frankly I’m more concerned about bombs and guns. chairman of a House panel that has investigated recent safety lapses at biolabs. not less risk. vaccines and cleanup are all hugely improved. technician or senior scientist — no cost. even among some specialists. said at a Congressional hearing in October. Vanderwagen said. said Richard H.B. “The Federal Bureau of Investigation and the intelligence community were the ones who were most concerned about it. Patents Dr. “I think it’s an important risk.B.” Heightening the concern has been a string of accidents at certain new or expanded biodefense laboratories. One 2003 study led by a Stanford scholar. if carried out by a biodefense insider like Dr. In effect the government may be providing the tools that a would-be terrorist could use. "We can get pills in the mouth. Calif. And there is ample evidence that Qaeda leaders have shown interest in using biological weapons. failed to meet deadlines. a Malaysian-born Qaeda biochemist who trained in the United States. on Saturday appeared confident that they had the right man. it succeeded — for example. investigators believe that the anthrax attacks were carried out by Dr. Ebright said. “Across the spectrum of biothreats we have expanded our capacity significantly.” one Justice Department official said Saturday. VaxGen. attracting money and prestige to a once-obscure field. had listed two patents held by Dr." Supporters of the spending surge cite studies that project apocalyptic tolls from a large-scale bioattack.nytimes. there are hundreds of such researchers in scores of laboratories at universities and other institutions around the United States. preparing for the next bioattack. Ebright. Mr. a former F. but it made no mention of compensation planned for their work. 8-3-08. Ivins and his colleague. Democrat of Michigan. an Army biodefense scientist who committed suicide last week after he learned that he was about to be indicted for murder. even if antibiotic distribution began quickly. a Rutgers University biochemist and vocal critic of the federal surge in biodefense spending. investigators have long speculated that the motive for the attacks. Almost $50 billion in federal money has been spent since 2001 to build new laboratories.com/2008/08/03/us/03anthrax. and al-Qaeda is developing it ERIC LIPTON and SCOTT SHANE. which has reduced the sense of urgency about the bioterrorist threat. with the salary being provided courtesy of the U. Ivins held on the research might have proved personally profitable.” Mr. But the proliferation of biodefense research laboratories presents real threats. Keith Rhodes.B. several of which were not properly reported to authorities when they first took place. has already re-ignited a debate: Has the unprecedented boom in biodefense research made the country less secure by multiplying the places and people with access to dangerous germs? “We are putting America at more risk. Systems to detect an attack.” Nearly seven years have passed without another biological attack. http://www. too. in an extreme case. spent several months in 2001 trying to cultivate anthrax in Kandahar. “That is all it takes. develop vaccines and stockpile drugs.S. Debate Is Revived Over U. an investigator with the Government Accountability Office.

such as a promising new experimental vaccines or therapies to treat smallpox or Ebola virus. New York Times. The country now also has a greatly expanded stockpile of vaccines and drugs to treat anyone exposed in a future attack.com/2008/08/03/us/03anthrax. but frankly I’m more concerned about bombs and guns. and the related surge in research. a former F. Michael Greenberger.html?pagewanted=2 Proponents say that clustering the laboratories on a military base will encourage safe scientific collaboration and save money through sharing of some facilities.” Status quo can solve bioterror ERIC LIPTON and SCOTT SHANE. which are easily available and can be very destructive.S. even among some specialists.com/2008/08/03/us/03anthrax. Vanderwagen said. 8-3-08. Efforts on Bioterrorism.nytimes. “Across the spectrum of biothreats we have expanded our capacity significantly. without creating significant new vulnerabilities. Debate Is Revived Over U. Debate Is Revived Over U." said Craig Vanderwagen. director of the Center for Health and Homeland Security at the University of Maryland. New York Times. vaccines and cleanup are all hugely improved.nytimes. The build-up. an assistant secretary at Health and Human Services who oversees the biodefense effort. investigate it and respond with drugs.S.html?pagewanted=2 Nearly seven years have passed without another biological attack. "We can get pills in the mouth. Systems to detect an attack. which has reduced the sense of urgency about the bioterrorist threat.B. including enough antibiotics to treat 40 million Americans who might be exposed to anthrax and nearly 5 million bottles of a special potassium iodide liquid that help protect infants from harm caused by nuclear fallout. “I think it’s an important risk.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus No Bioterror – Research/Biodefense solves Status quo solves bioterrorism – research ERIC LIPTON and SCOTT SHANE. http://www.” said Randall S. Murch. Mr.” he said. said he was convinced that the increased spending has left the nation better prepared for a future attack. “But the research ethic today is one of much greater disciple and focus on security than was true prior to the anthrax attacks. federal officials argue. has brought some important advances." 12 .I. “You can never say that the system is 100 percent secure. Efforts on Bioterrorism. http://www. Federal officials say they are convinced that the surge in spending has brought real gains. 8-3-08. scientist who has studied ways to trace a bioterrorist attack to its source.

Mr. and a sales tax increase may also be in the offing. which is heavily leveraged and peppered with numerous mandatory spending requirements approved as ballot measures by voters. which is particularly challenging with large deficits and unpopular cuts. http://www. a law professor at the University of California. Further. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered a temporary pay cut to the federal minimum wage of $6. and a record number of California homeowners met with foreclosures last quarter — 121.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus CA State DA Brink California’s economy is on the brink New York Times. now several weeks overdue and about $17 billion in the red. a Republican. And the structure of the state’s budget. up 125 percent from the second quarter of 2007.html?ref=us Among states struggling with budget deficits brought on by a national economic slowdown and the subprime lending crisis. “So much of the state is in hock. California saw its problems brought into sharp relief last week. a difficult formula in times when jobs are in short supply.” The state has already made a 10 percent cut to its Medicaid reimbursement rate and deferred payments to vendors. The state is also one of the few that require a two-thirds legislative majority to pass a budget. Schwarzenegger has called for 10 percent across-the-board reductions to all general fund departments. anyway. Los Angeles and an expert on the state’s constitution.000 more. California is among the worst-hit states in the foreclosure crisis.com/2008/08/03/us/03budget.nytimes. and the laying off of 10.55 an hour for roughly 200. Schwarzenegger. 13 . the state relies on income taxes rather than property taxes for most of its revenues. if the state controller goes along with it.000 state workers. 8-3-08. “Propositions have money mandates. makes it all the harder to balance. Mr. said he would reimburse workers for their full pay once the Legislature had finished the state budget. California Is Among States Struggling With Budgets.341 defaults. according to DataQuick Information Systems.” said Jonathan Zasloff. Gov.

"All the Republicans want to do is not pay for anything and we know the House would not accept that.. Associated Press. R-Texas. clean coal. John Cornyn. threatened a presidential veto. renewable energy package. GOP blocks action on tax.com/article/ALeqM5icrolgbXr0mlnZQmLr-1svIyNDpwD9289B8O0 For the fourth time this summer Republicans stopped the Senate from taking up wide-ranging legislation that extends tax breaks for teachers. Major business groups. D-Nev. anticipating the defeat. many which expired at the end of last year or will run out at the end of this year. said his party sees a "need to dispose of the pending energy bill to help bring down the price of gas at the pump before turning to other matters. http://ap. plug-in electric vehicles and a variety of others. helping out investors in wind and solar power. The vote Wednesday was 51-43. But Sen. it's a matter or principle and politics: many oppose what they say are new tax increases to pay for parts of the package and nearly all say the Senate's only business now is acting on an energy bill that promotes drilling and other measures to boost domestic oil supply. But for many Republicans. businesses and parents and provides tax credits to an array of renewable energy entrepreneurs.google. citing new taxes and other objections to the bill. usual GOP allies. The White House. nine short of the 60 needed to begin floor debate." The bill would extend some $18 billion worth of renewable energy tax credits. 14 . 7-30-08. have implored Congress to act on the tax credits." said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus (Solar/Wind) Tax Credits – GOP hates Current GOP hates tax credits for solar/wind energy JIM ABRAMS.

The feckless Democrats are maneuvering to dodge oil drilling floor votes. Their affection. the tax incentives will expire at the end of the year. Reckless and Feckless. and other clean energy investment capital is likely to go elsewhere. GOP is blocking tax credits on alternative energy to get oil drilling – plan eliminates it. Congress Sandbags Renewables. 8-3-08. the policy director for Republicans for Environmental Protection. solar. and billions of dollars in wind. The reckless Republicans are blocking important bills.thedailygreen. sock 'em partisan politics when the Senate failed to move legislation extending various tax incentives for renewable resources. such as the renewables incentives. Reid was “moving the goalposts” to avoid potentially difficult votes on domestic drilling.com/stories/2008/07/31/politics/politico/thecrypt/main4312030. where the politics are less toxic and the financial certainty more solid. both parties are playing for political trophies. 7-31-08.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus 2NC OCS Tax Credit Tradeoff Link Passage of tax credits depletes GOP influence on drilling The Politico. such as the renewables incentives. 15 . Reckless and feckless.shtml Republicans countered that by insisting on considering a tax extenders bill alongside the speculation bill. however.com/environmental-news/blogs/republican/renewable-energy-tax-incentives-55080301 Both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress have professed their undying love for renewable energy resources. They’re trying to run out the clock while they hope that the November election will paint the whole town blue.cbsnews. which has the effect of sandbagging important bills. that’s what they are. allowing dems to block OCS Jim DiPeso. http://www. Reid: Work On Energy Bill "over Until The Fall" http://www. Rather than putting money where their energy mouths are. which polls show may play to their advantage. as leverage to push for oil drilling floor votes. If the game of chicken goes on much longer. took a back seat to rock 'em.

also develop their own nuclear arsenals. out of fear or competitive emulation. there would have to be detection systems that could unambiguously determine whether a nuclear-armed ballistic missile was launched from.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus AT: Prolif  Deterrence (Middle East) Deterrence doesn’t apply for Middle East prolif – at best it causes nuclear terrorism Stephen Peter Rosen. Preparations could thus be made for retaliation. One of the greatest fears about Iran's possible acquisition of nuclear weapons. that within the next decade Iran manages to acquire a few crude nuclear weapons and that these can be delivered by ballistic missiles within the Middle East and by clandestine means to the United States and Europe. it would be difficult to retaliate against a bomb that has no clear return address. but until they exist and their effectiveness is demonstrated. moreover. 2006. In a multipolar nuclear Middle East. others that it would. deterrence might well be weak. the small number of nuclear states meant that the identity of any nuclear attacker would be obvious. most analysts considered it unlikely that nuclear weapons would be used during peacetime. For deterrence to work in such an environment. which would dramatically increase the likelihood of their being used. If a nuclear-armed ballistic missile were launched while conventional fighting involving non-nuclear-armed ballistic missiles was going on in the region. and this helped deter first strikes. but the frequency of conventional wars in the Middle East would make it a less comforting prospect. for the sake of argument. That scenario would still be the most likely in a postproliferation future as well. It gets worse. such logic might not hold. But those systems were optimized to monitor the Soviet Union and may not be as effective at identifying launches conducted from other countries. Iran. Some argue that the Iranian government would never condone such a transfer. There is no way of knowing for sure. Academic Search Premier Assume. or Saudi Arabia. 16 . During the Cold War. they worried more about the possibility of a nuclear conflict somehow emerging out of a conventional war.  Foreign Affairs. however. In earlier decades. is that Tehran might give them to a terrorist group. Harvard. After Proliferation. the United States spent an enormous amount of resources on over-the-horizon radars and satellites that could detect the origin of missile launches in the Soviet Union. say. How would strategic interactions in this new world play out? During the Cold War. Assume also that Saudi Arabia and Turkey. It may be technically simple for the United States (or Israel or Saudi Arabia) to deploy such systems. Turkey. how confident would any government be that it could identify the party responsible? The difficulty would be greater still if an airplane or a cruise missile were used to deliver the nuclear weapon. Beton Michael Kaneb Professor of National Security and Military Affairs.

7 per cent in July. is empowered to provide. It also makes incomplete allowance for the fiscal component of the various housing-related bail-outs now in train. fiscal stimulus or no. A deficit of 5 per cent of gross domestic product next year is within reach. the hitherto unstoppable engine of US growth. Instead. California. and the tax base (lacking a value-added tax or equivalent) is less cyclically sensitive. are forced to draw on the full support that the Treasury. If the budget outlook starts to scare the markets and interrupt the flow of foreign capital to the US. but it very well might in the next few quarters. The prices of food and petrol. this was expected to grow to a surplus of 4. in fact. and their associated debt-service costs. which perversely tighten fiscal policy during recessions. this has not embedded itself in expectations of permanently higher inflation. but consumer spending. €321bn).2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2007. Even if it does not. That followed growth of 1 per cent in the first quarter and a contraction (on revised numbers) of 0. and prices start pushing wages. or roughly $1. among other things. the administration knowingly opted for outrageous fiscal excess . In spite of the slowdown. is stalling.5 per cent of GDP by 2008. States have to comply with semi-binding balanced budget rules as well. add tens of billions more. but this is the nearest thing. These pencil in a deficit of nearly $500bn (£253bn. Most forecasters are expecting a double-dip US slowdown . The White House just updated its budget forecasts for next year. 8-4-08. Budget deficits should indeed rise sharply in recessions.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Econ = Dead The economy is dead and can’t be revived – 13 reasons The Financial Times UK.adding insult to injury with its phoney tax-cut sunset provisions. It offered the Bush administration ample scope for outlays on homeland security and other unforeseen priorities. policymakers' worries about inflation. It has not happened yet. this startling record of fiscal irresponsibility has all but taken fiscal policy off the table as an available response to the slowdown. This year's actual deficit of 3 per cent of GDP therefore represents a worsening of more than 7 per cent of GDP. involuntary part-time working is on the rise. It is worth remembering where the blame for this neutering of fiscal policy lies: squarely with the Bush administration. the labour market is already behaving that way. 17 . Luck is about all it has left. Unemployment moved up to 5. Barack Obama. Only luck can save America's economy. On unchanged policy. all within a budget balanced over the course of the business cycle. The point at which fiscal easing becomes self-cancelling may not be far away. Eight years on. the Democratic contender. In the US.more than some think wise . Crucially. with the passage of the new housing bill. the budget stood in surplus to the tune of 2. Overtime is falling. the labour department reported on Friday. together with still-tightening credit conditions and a housing market that has not yet touched bottom.and the second dip could be a technical recession. output grew less than 2 per cent at an annual rate in the second quarter. both presidential candidates are promising to cut taxes by thousands of billions of dollars over the next 10 years (relative to the Bush administration's bogus baseline). This excludes roughly $80bn of war costs.but precious little remains. in the midst of the current slowdown.000bn. and moderate tax cuts as well. Automatic fiscal stabilisers are less powerful in the US: the government is smaller. this requires more forceful intervention than in most European countries. A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking output. Regardless. the dollar might fall abruptly . Almost all of this deterioration is due to policy: to tax cuts. The recent poor numbers for output and jobs led markets not to expect that interest rates will be cut further. spending increases. Even so. consumer prices are rising at their fastest for almost 20 years. But they cannot be relied on in future because growth in Europe and elsewhere is going to be limited by. What more can be done? The short answer is nothing. further aggressive fiscal easing at the federal level would be risky.4 per cent of GDP. Prospects for the second half of the year are poor. output would have fallen.and is having to assure the markets that it is keeping an eye on inflation. If that happens. this is no mere "mental recession". the housing agencies. are weighing it down.html The US economy may not be in recession. The policy options have narrowed almost to zero.com/cms/s/0/db4d7196-61bb-11dd- af94-000077b07658. Some of the current boost from the fiscal injection delivered last quarter will keep feeding through. Looking farther ahead. but to hope that they will not be raised again just yet. Net exports were the main accelerator in the second quarter . If Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. is calling for an additional fiscal stimulus right now. slower than expected. While it may be true that the US has seen much worse. Unemployment will climb above 6 per cent next year. The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates sharply . That projected surplus was a priceless gift to the White House. http://www. The US economy had better have luck on its side. In spite of the recent fiscal stimulus.ft. has been forced to sack thousands of workers and put state employees on the minimum wage.worsening the inflation risk and forcing the Fed's hand on interest rates. designed for no other purpose than to disguise the long-term fiscal implications. At the start of this decade. that would be little consolation. Some fiscal room for manoeuvre would be good right now .without that rise. interest rates would have to go up.

in fact. including against the Euro and the yen. quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. or 1. and they have occurred at a time when U. tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults. the inflationary consequences of such a policy is not apparent yet. so-called alternative-A mortgages. and inadequate regulation were behind the U. a investment firm in Los Angeles that trades mortgage securities. Atteberry. said he expected losses on prime loans at his bank to triple in the coming months and described the outlook for them as “terrible. James Dimon. Of particular concern are “alt-A” loans. even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak. http://www. 8-4-08. The US dollar fell across the board. The US Economy is weak Mercopress. At the current growth rate of nearly 2%. 8-1-08. US economy picks up but Governors give different picture. “Prime will be far bigger in its impact.7 percent in that time. it has never balanced the budget. because of the Fed’s aggressive policy of reducing interest rates to fight market falls or to bail out financial companies in trouble. It can be said that they have contributed to weakening the United States and making it more vulnerable to economic and financial shocks.” The economy is weak and won’t revive itself soon Rodrigue Tremblay Online Journal. the US economy is only growing at half the rate it was one year ago. 18 . economy and bad government policies. president of First Pacific Advisors. credit are showing their first. doubled to 2. Because of the current economic slowdown.2%. On the contrary. some refer to the Fed’s bailouts of troubled investment banks as a sort of Bernanke put. “Subprime was the tip of the iceberg. Although such deficits at about 3. many of which were made to people with good credit scores without proof of their income or assets. On Friday.com/2008/08/04/business/04lend.mercopress.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Econ Low Economy is weak – mortgage crisis. Defaults are likely to accelerate because many homeowners’ monthly payments are rising rapidly.S.do?id=14123&formato=HTML Mr Paulson predicted that the US economy would get stronger next year "and beyond". it has even spent the budget surplus that it inherited from the Clinton administration. they are cumulative.nytimes.com/artman/publish/article_3575.3 percent of the gross national product (GDP) are lower than the 6. the chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase.” In a conference call with analysts last month. let us look quickly at fiscal policy. http://onlinejournal. dollar much weaker. VIKAS BAJAJ. making it harder for people to refinance loans or sell their homes.78% lower at 11. analysts said.6% to show a negative growth figure of -0. foreign indebtedness is much higher and the U. The seeds are now sown for the next bubble. which account for most of the $12 trillion market.02 points. or subprime. lax lending standards. Delinquencies among prime loans. The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime. the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate in July climbed to a four-year high. Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults.378. housing bubble. http://www. Third. Let us keep in mind that historically-low interest rates. Indeed. The Bush-Cheney administration’s fiscal policy has been characterized by budget deficit upon budget deficit.” said Thomas H. The benchmark Dow Jones index closed more than 200 points. Reports last week showed another drop in home prices.S.0 percent of GDP we saw in the early 1980’s. 8-4-08. And it has announced that it plans to leave the coming administration with a record 2009 deficit of half a trillion dollars.S. slower-than-expected economic growth and a huge loss at General Motors.com/vernoticia. The U. whatever the state of the economy. In its entire eight years in office. While it is difficult to draw precise parallels among various segments of the mortgage market. following the release of the data. auto industry collapse NYT. But the figure was worse than expected and caused shares to fall.shtml In the same spirit. Investors were also concerned that the government had downgraded its estimate of growth in the last three months of 2007 from the previous reading of 0. but it could be the foundations of future inflation down the road. the arc of the crisis in subprime loans suggests that the problems in the broader market may not peak for another year or two. The higher bills come as home prices continue to decline and banks tighten their lending standards. the previous Bush-Cheney administration’s record was its 2004 $413 billion deficit. The mortgage troubles have been exacerbated by an economy that is still struggling.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1 Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers.S.

Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Econ Collapse = Slow Economic collapse will be slow – current mortgage crisis proves Rodrigue Tremblay Online Journal. bad decisions and bad policies do not always result in immediate negative consequences. The U. economy and bad government policies.shtml In economics.S. 19 . Many of the current economic and financial problems of today are the result of bad policies of the past. http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3575. It takes time for them to work their way through the economy and produce their corrosive effects. 8-4-08.

The result has been an unhealthy mixture of greed. and this has amounted to a mismanagement of the U. This does not mean that the private side of the U.S. http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3575. the private sector is resilient Rodrigue Tremblay Online Journal.S. The U. shortsightedness and market manipulation. economy is not resilient and strong. It only means that government policies have often been misguided and have damaged the private economy and hurt the people economically. And now.S. 8-4-08. 20 . economy.shtml There have been many policy missteps over the last 20 some years. all the chickens are coming home to roost and the crisis is deepening.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Economy = Resilient Even if government policies are hurting the economy. economy and bad government policies.

http://onlinejournal. monetary policy. deregulation of the financial sector has been based on developing what I would call predatory financial capitalism. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the speculative prevention rule called the downtick-uptick rule (which prohibited short-selling when stock prices were falling). 8-4-08. we are back to the 1930s with large financial institutions reaping huge profits and paying obscene salaries to their CEOs in good times and with government bailing them out with public money when things turn sour. Such safeguards had been put in place in order to avoid systemic financial instability. this was a system that was not only risky but also fraught with shady activities.S.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Econ Collapse Inevitable Econ collapse inevitable Rodrigue Tremblay Online Journal. 21 . let us consider regulation policy for the crucial financial sector. economy and bad government policies. at the government level. U.5 trillion hedge fund industry. First. to make financial institutions more responsible to users and to avoid costly government bailouts when large financial institutions fail. To accomplish this deregulation or non-regulation of the financial sector and to encourage the over-indebtedness of the U. also known as “bootstrap” investments. This is particularly true in regards to regulation policy. The last one in line was the reckless abolition by the U.S.S. economy.com/artman/publish/article_3575. the development of the pyramidal $2. that is to say the systematic encouragement of excessive risk taking (moral hazard) and of corporate greed in general. it seems that short-term benefits were often privileged at the expense of long-term costs. each new economic crisis seems to have been “solved” by creating the conditions for the next one. a whole series of safeguards that had been wisely established to prevent a repeat of the financial and economic disasters of the 1930s were dismantled and cast aside. and fiscal policy. The U.shtml Essentially. Over the last 20 years. S. and the practice of program trading. in July 2006. the practice of highly-leveraged buyouts (LBOs) of healthy companies with their own high- yield debt. Each time a policy choice had to be made. Moreover. Today.

at 2% when they meet Tuesday. which influence borrowing costs economywide. http://www. In some ways.S. While they continue to fight to stabilize financial markets and an economy weakened by the housing meltdown. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are expected to keep their target for short-term interest rates. central bankers began aggressively pumping money into a faltering financial system. the highest in 17 years.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Econ Low/AT: Fed Economy is weak and Fed won’t change rates USA Today.com/money/economy/2008-08-03-fed-fmoc-bernanke_N. The consumer price index was up 5% in June from a year earlier. The Fed would normally raise rates to combat inflation. 8-4-08. The rate has been steady since April. price pressures are forcing the Fed to sit on the sidelines. Fed policymakers now also have to ward off inflationary pressures that have nearly doubled in the last year in large part because of rapidly rising energy and food prices. Given the competing challenges.htm Federal Reserve policymakers are finding their jobs aren't getting any easier as a sluggish economy and stubbornly high inflation put them in an interest-rate bind. 22 . Barbara Hagenbaugh. the job now has become more complicated.usatoday. Fed unlikely to change rates this week. While the weak economy would suggest the need for lower interest rates. The meeting comes a year after U.

but faces difficulties AFP. "While our economy faces substantial difficulties that will continue to be a drag on growth in the short term. He said the market will be helped by the recently enacted housing rescue package aimed at helping homeowners refinance and adding liquidity to the sector.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Econ Brink Economy is growing and stabilizing. but suggested there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel. I expect our economy to continue growing this year although at a moderate pace. housing continues to be at the heart of our economic challenges and remains our most significant downside risk. but with some analysts still worried about a possible recession." he said in a Washington speech.google. 23 .com/article/ALeqM5iE-ObRDGruw_UuQ6i4- G8TTt_Bxw Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Thursday he expects "moderate" growth in the US economy this year and some stability returning to the housing market in a matter of months. Paulson sees US economy still growing this year. We are making progress although not in a straight line. it is important to remember that our long-term fundamentals are strong. 8-1-08.9 percent growth pace in the second quarter lifted by an economic stimulus plan and exports. The top US economic official made his comments after data showed a 1." Paulson was relatively upbeat on prospects for a recovery in the battered housing market after the worst slump in decades. "Recognizing the challenges ahead of us. http://afp.

But Housing Still Correcting. but said it will take additional months for the housing market -.S. 8-1-08.the biggest risk to the economy -. housing continues to be at the heart of our economic challenges and remains our most significant downside risk. economy to continue to grow. I expect our economy to continue growth this year although at a moderate pace. 24 . Wall Street Journal. The US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he expects the economy to continue growing this year and "to return to stronger growth next year and beyond". it is feared that growth would have been negative.S. economy" amid difficulties in the housing and financial markets.S. Paulson reiterated that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's continued activity is central to the speed at which the U." he said.S. Still. which gave tax rebates to 130 million households. economy revives.com/vernoticia.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Econ . US economy is growing – stimulus plan and Fannie/Freddie – data proves WSJ. Without that extra government spending. economy sped up in the spring after shrinking late last year.to fully recover. The department said gross domestic product climbed only 1. Wall Street had expected 2. Still. US economy picks up but Governors give different picture. Mr.com/article/SB121752429127901443." According to data the Commerce Department released early Thursday. growth was weaker than expected.do?id=14123&formato=HTML "Clearly the stimulus plan has supported the US economy during this difficult period and couldn't have been timelier." he said. "And home prices are likely to decline further on a national basis. The fact that the U. he argued that the markets could move through the bulk of the housing market correction "in months rather than years. Paulson Says Stimulus Worked." said Mr. Paulson. "Our first and most urgent priority is working through the housing downturn and capital market turmoil and that will be our priority until these situations are resolved.wsj. Analysts are now concerned about what will happen to the US when the benefit of the stimulus package. Addressing ongoing issues in the housing markets.S. Regis Hotel in Washington. he said in a speech at the St. MAYA JACKSON RANDALL.mercopress." said US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. That said.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Thursday said new economic data prove that the economic stimulus plan has successfully propped up the U.3% growth in GDP.Growing US Economy is growing Mercopress. the U. Mr. 7-31-08.9% in the second quarter despite the tax rebates provided in the economic stimulus package. economy. has passed. "Recognizing the challenges ahead of us. Meanwhile.html?mod=googlenews_wsj U. http://www. Paulson said he expects the U. which added almost 4% to the economy that quarter. although it will take additional time for the troubled housing and credit markets to return to normal.S. economy expanded modestly in the second quarter of 2008 is proof that the economic stimulus plan backed by Congress and the Bush Administration "has supported the U. Paulson said he expects foreclosures and existing home inventories to remain "substantially elevated" in 2008 and 2009. his focus going forward will be on the housing and capital markets. the Treasury chief said. "We are making progress although not in a straight line. http://online." Mr.

mercopress. http://www.do?id=14123&formato=HTML New York governor David Paterson earlier this week admitted the state economy was in recession and announced spending cuts to face a steep budget deficit due to declining tax revenues.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus New York Economy – Low New York’s economy is weak Mercopress. 25 . 8-1-08. US economy picks up but Governors give different picture.com/vernoticia.

and by all measures may never get there.N.com/article/88776-don-t-bet- on-an-iran-war-barron-s Despite Israel's saber-rattling. however -. "Why would Israel telegraph its punch like that?" he asks. "The United States and Israel share deep concern about Iran's nuclear program. issued after talks between senior officials from the United States and Israel in Washington. Barron's says the threat of an Israel or U.S." said the statement. http://www. and the two delegations discussed steps to strengthen diplomatic efforts and financial measures to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability. the same as that separating Israel from Iran. said nothing about the possibility of using force against Iran. 8-3-08. not 2009. The distance from Israel was roughly 900 miles. the Times of London quoted Israeli military sources who confirmed the "dress rehearsal" nature of the exercise. Israel discuss diplomatic push on Iran. it was successful precisely because it gave no hint at all of an impending attack. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in New York this week that tough sanctions should be used to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Barron's says cooler heads will prevail.. though it has never confirmed having nuclear weapons. which even over a short period would be cataclysmic to the global economy and stock markets. http://seekingalpha. who plans to quit after his party chooses a new leader in September. which the State Department said was being issued by both the United States and Israel. founder and head of highly-respected (and prescient) Stratfor global-intelligence company notes: The Iran-attack story gained widespread credence after the New York Times reported June 20 that more than 100 Israeli aircraft had participated several weeks earlier in a military exercise over the eastern Mediterranean.reuters. Seeking Alpha Editor. and the end game is closer than most imagine. George Friedman. while the U. Israel officially maintains that it will not be the first nation to introduce nuclear weapons in the region." The delegations were led by U. The U. 26 .-Israeli talks were part of regular consultations between the two countries known as the "strategic dialogue. U. Mofaz is considered a possible successor to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.S. attack on Iran is negligible. Lacking Western know-how.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus No Israel Strikes Israel won’t strike – rhetoric is all psychological Eli Hoffmann. Friedman says. Iran denies it. The saber-rattling by unnamed officials smacks of psychological warfare to Friedman. the State Department said on Thursday." the statement said. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday Iran would press ahead with its nuclear path. The brief statement. It gave no details of the measures discussed.com/article/newsOne/idUSN3137356320080731?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0 U. as expected." Ahmadinejad has recently toned down his anti-Western rhetoric. Iran is decades away from developing credible nuclear weaponry . Just a day later. which could easily drive crude prices "to more than $300 a barrel.not preparations for the real thing. the best it can hope for down the road would be a controlled explosion of a crude device.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs. The West accuses Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons under cover of a civilian program. while a story in the Jerusalem Post alluded to previous statements made by Israeli intelligence officials who said Iran would cross an unspecified nuclear threshold in 2008. "We also reaffirmed our strong mutual determination to counter Iran's support for terrorism. There has been speculation that either the United States or Israel could attack Iran's nuclear facilities. has softened its stance. though both have said force should be a last resort. but added that no options should be excluded.Barron's. sanctions on Iran if Tehran would freeze any expansion of its nuclear work. Bill Burns. 7-31-08.S. and Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz." An attack on Iran would essentially close the Strait of Hormuz until the area was de-mined.S. "Recall that when Israel took out Iraq's Osirak reactor back in 1981. Israel is believed to have the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal. and Israeli officials discussed diplomatic efforts and financial sanctions to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons. near Greece. and the exercise was viewed as a trial run for a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Don't Bet on an Iran War . Western powers gave Iran two weeks from July 19 to respond to their offer to hold off on imposing more U.S. Besides which. Israel wants diplomacy – strikes are unlikely Reuters.

" The Iranian government has long had an interest section in Washington. is in agreement that the military option is not the best option at this point. as well.S. an official denied there are now any sharp rifts. The administration's wariness of military options is also clear from recent efforts to dissuade Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. Both officials explained to their Israeli counterparts why the United States believes an attack isn't necessary now.S. national interests.S. 8-3-2008. he was followed in late June by Adm. The United States has reassured the Iraqi government that it would not approve Israeli overflights.html Analysts speculate about the danger of a U. The official described it as an effort to "reach out to the Iranian people. or Israeli military attack on Iran before the Bush administration departs office next January. government about the way to proceed with Iran. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Embassy there was seized in 1979. Mike McConnell. the evidence is actually pointing in the opposite direction. One sign that the diplomatic track is dominant for now is that the administration plans to announce late this month that it will open an interest section in Tehran. including the vice president's office. He also co-hosts PostGlobal.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus No Strikes – Israel and US US and Israel won’t strike Iran David Ignatius.S. traveled to Israel in early June. as it will be the first American diplomatic mission in Iran since the U. an associate editor and columnist for the Washington Post.washingtonpost. and why an attack would damage U. Michael Mullen. http://www.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2008/08/01/AR2008080102872. Washington Post. But if you read the tea leaves carefully. McConnell and Mullen also informed the Israelis that the United States would oppose overflights of Iraqi airspace to attack Iran." 27 . and we should pursue diplomatic and economic pressures. an administration official said. "Everyone from this White House. Though the administration has often been portrayed as divided over military options against Iran. after the Iraqis strongly protested any potential violation of their sovereignty. "We have made our position abundantly clear to the Israelis and indeed to the world. not just in our public statements but in our private conversations. the director of national intelligence. an online discussion of international issues. because the Iranians can't yet build a nuclear weapon." said Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell. This will be an important symbol." the official said. Page B07. 'Bomb Bomb Iran'? Not Likely. a senior official disclosed Thursday. "There is uniformity across the U.

S. a strike against Iran. a strike would rally support for the unpopular government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he faces growing economic difficulty. He also co-hosts PostGlobal.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus US opposes Israeli Strikes US opposes Israeli strikes on Iran David Ignatius. as with any military action. In evaluating the Iranian nuclear threat.S. an attack would undermine U. a strike would retard the Iranian nuclear program without destroying it. http://www. analysts believe Iran can't produce a bomb before the end of 2009 and probably not until the 2010--2015 time frame.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2008/08/01/AR2008080102872. opposition to an Israeli military strike now is based on four factors. intelligence official. 28 . and in Afghanistan. would have unpredictable consequences. when the United States appears to be making some progress.S. an associate editor and columnist for the Washington Post. 8-3-2008. the official said. the United States and Israel are using different intelligence. an online discussion of international issues. policy in Iraq.) Second. (One intelligence estimate is that an attack would delay the Iranians by just two months to two years. Page B07.washingtonpost. Washington Post. Third. First. U. according to a senior U. finally.html U.S. And. 'Bomb Bomb Iran'? Not Likely.

who fear a rout in November's elections. including a rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.S. put some polite distance between themselves and the White House. 7-20-08. In recent weeks Bush: • Discussed with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki what the White House called ''a general time horizon'' for cutting the number of American troops in Iraq. • Tried to reassure the public. who resigned because of Watergate-related scandals 19 months into his second term. presidential scholar at Vanderbilt University and the author of The Effective President.'' off the list of terrorism sponsors and loosened trade sanctions after it agreed to provide details of its nuclear program. and his approval ratings have remained at or near a dismal 30 percent for about a year. Bush is the nation's fifth lame duck since the 22nd Amendment limited presidents to two terms. Congress is run by Democrats reluctant to give Bush any domestic victories. Dwight D. which are fueling the White House PR machine.unlikely as long as the economy wobbles and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars continue -. flow from his recent tendency to compromise more on national security issues. There are more ominous signs for Bush that his power remains diluted. 29 . coastlines. scoring important triumphs in Iraq and North Korea and on domestic spying while taking tough stands on oil drilling and relief for homeowners. he doesn't really have a lot of political capital. saying the bill could become costly to taxpayers.'' Warber said. however. and in the House of Representatives. ''All this is pretty much a lot of noise. Bush was upbeat recently as he recalled his recent string of accomplishments. that's unlikely. `Aw. His public approval is so poor. President Bush hasn't begun a comeback.'' said Rep. the House chief deputy Republican whip. ''You want the president involved. Passage is expected. professor of government at the University of Texas.'' Congress needs to approve any end to the drilling ban. http://www. the president's done nothing. • Took North Korea.'' said Erwin Hargrove. but it won't come easily. He rattled off his list and looked ahead.'' Next week. but in the context of the election. man. and with Democratic leaders opposed.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus No Pol Cap Bush’s capital is dead – 7 reasons DAVID LIGHTMAN McClatchy News Service staff writer. Some conservative Republicans are wary. ''It's very difficult for him now. Miami Herald. ``Our candidates are on the ballot. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid dismissed Bush's energy policies. Bush's achievements. is wrong.com/news/nation/story/610912. This week. We can get good energy legislation done. professor of political science at Clemson University. ''What can we get done?'' he asked. the experts and the polls say. Nothing's going to happen. beginning with Harry Truman's successor in 1952. Republicans. Adam Warber. Ronald Reagan's number when he left office was 64 percent. Reid said.'' But outside the White House. which he once labeled part of an ''axis of evil. He's going out with a whimper. Bush said he wasn't endorsing timetables. Bill Clinton's was 59 percent in a July 2000 Gallup poll. We can get trade bills done. few were as optimistic.html The White House wants the American public to think it's on the rebound. you're running out of time. • Won congressional approval of $162 billion for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. in his first news conference since April. though only after including new college aid for military veterans that he'd opposed. • Ended the executive ban on drilling off most U.miamiherald. Eisenhower hit 59 percent approval just before stepping down. that he understood their economic pain and was working to ease it. Analysts say that unless the president's approval rating jumps -.. 'People say. Eric Cantor. Congress overrode his veto of Medicare legislation. saying.his clout is likely to remain diminished. had similar thoughts.' '' he said.'' said Bruce Buchanan. Bush's clout is in a downward spiral. R-Va. The others left office with strong approval ratings. ``We can get good housing legislation done.'' His call for more drilling. • Won his bid to renew the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. which he has long opposed. ``underlines and underscores that the main organization he's trying to help are the oil companies. ''It's not clear he's turned anything around. Congress is expected to consider help for faltering housing markets. The White House. And there's plenty of time to get action with the United States Congress. One was Richard Nixon. ''Really. so the current view of him will probably endure for a while. he's not on the ballot. including the controversial provision that could allow immunity for telecommunications firms that participated in warrantless wiretaps.

chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. D-Nev.300 new power plants. head of the presidential task force studying our energy needs. No new plants have been ordered since then. No specific plans.htm Vice President Dick Cheney. Federal officials estimate that electricity demand will rise 45 percent over the next two decades and require the construction of more than 1. Former Sen. we have preferred patchwork solutions like voluntary conservation to a growing dependency on nuclear power. The vice president scowled when he was asked if he would be willing to put the waste in either of those two states. But furious Nevada officials.. No state wants to be the repository of the more than 40. http://www. and Wyoming.org/views01/0412-05. are preparing for a noisy political battle over the Bush administration's interest in expanding nuclear power. "Nobody wants this waste. Only 20 percent of our electricity is generated by nuclear power. Cheney argues that modern. publicly warned that he would rally environmental groups and other nuclear opponents for a classic nomination fight. Last December Bush. The industry has been moribund in this country since the partial meltdown at Three Mile Island more than two decades ago set off fierce emotional resistance to an unreliable technology capable of accidentally spreading deadly radiation.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Nuclear Waste costs PC Waste storage makes expanding nuclear power unpopular Marianne Means. who has promised to veto any legislation that allows temporary storage. 90 miles from Las Vegas. is the author of what the state's congressional delegation calls the "screw Nevada" bill recommending Yucca Mountain. But they may figure wrong. improved reactors operate safely. a founding member of the International Women's Media. where Cheney grew up from age 13 on. Hearst Newspapers. RAlaska. Harry Reid.000 tons of high-level nuclear waste currently accumulating at 103 commercial reactor sites around the country." he said Sunday in an NBC "Meet The Press" interview. But Sen. 30 . 2001.commondreams. In 1987. saying only that he would like to see the percentage of electricity produced by nuclear power "go up. There remains. it is going to come down somewhere. "It's one of the safest industries around. this country goes through a political spasm in which we declare an energy emergency. Bush's home state." Two places it is not likely to come down are Texas. Recently they sharply challenged the scientific integrity of a feasibility study that found the location suitable for long-term storage. Former Sen. as secretary of energy. A leak could silently contaminate many miles of groundwater that millions of people depend on. who got the job instead. J." Environmentalists. But Utah's political leaders don't want their state to warehouse the waste either. If you throw it up in the air." he says unequivocally. April 12. Bennett Johnston. D-La.. "If we're going to go forward with nuclear power. And conservative Utah has considerable influence with Bush. "It is a highly politicized issue. Johnston wisely withdrew his name from contention. have thus far managed to fend off final federal approval. as the most likely site to bury the dangerous stuff. It was promoted as a temporary location for the waste casks for several years until the Yucca Mountain facility can be built." The Bush administration figures that the current rush for new energy sources will make nuclear power easier to sell a nervous public than in the past. however. So far. however. Spencer Abraham. An alternate waste site was suggested in Utah on the Skull Valley Goshute Indian Reservation. already angry at Bush for permitting logging in federal parks and other anti-conservation policy decisions. has been less identified with Nevada's fate but is believed to back its selection for storage as an essential step toward future nuclear power development. Reid bluntly said he would "do everything I can" to keep Johnston from the energy post. Cheney concedes that issue is still unsolved. using all their political clout." acknowledges Frank Murkowski. looking for a friendly Democrat to include in his Cabinet. echoing Murkowski that "it will have to be put someplace. some of which may be nuclear reactors. Cheney Will Face Wall of Opposition If They Try To Resurrect Nuclear Power. But President Bush has instructed Cheney to look into the prospect of resurrecting and developing nuclear power as a major part of a broad new energy policy. we need to find a way to resolve it. favors building new nuclear power plants - and he's oddly casual about it. Not for a minute. considered selecting Johnston. economically and efficiently. He ducked the issue. Not for a day. a little problem of how to dispose of the plants' radioactive waste. It's just too scary a prospect. past chairman of the National Press Foundation. This spent fuel is so deadly it can remain a potential threat to public health and safety for thousands of years. Bush. Cheney refused to get into the numbers game. now a nuclear industry lobbyist. predicting terrible shortages if we don't do something fast. Congress designated Nevada's Yucca Mountain. have yet surfaced. From time to time.

the report promises to study possible increases in the fuel economy of the nation's fleet of cars and light trucks -.html?res=9C0DE1D9113AF93BA25756C0A9679C8B63&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss The report is not without value. it offers hefty tax credits for hybrid cars that run on gasoline and electricity. May 18. it proposes some long-overdue capital spending on the country's transmission lines and natural-gas pipeline system.com/gst/fullpage. Though the document was hatched in secret. http://query. In addition. A Misguided Energy Proposal.nytimes. In a nod to the conservationists whom Vice President Dick Cheney has been belittling.though nobody really expects Mr. 31 . it could well stimulate an open debate on the country's energy future. 2001. Bush to risk any political capital on changes that the automobile industry opposes and Congress itself has refused to make. More specifically.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus AT: Fuel Efficiency CP doesn’t cost PC Congress and the auto-industry don’t want fuel efficiency regulations NYT.

RAlaska. April 12.htm No state wants to be the repository of the more than 40. But Utah's political leaders don't want their state to warehouse the waste either. 2001. now a nuclear industry lobbyist. a founding member of the International Women's Media. publicly warned that he would rally environmental groups and other nuclear opponents for a classic nomination fight. has been less identified with Nevada's fate but is believed to back its selection for storage as an essential step toward future nuclear power development. Johnston wisely withdrew his name from contention. as secretary of energy. Reid bluntly said he would "do everything I can" to keep Johnston from the energy post.commondreams. who got the job instead. chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. and Wyoming. Not for a minute. If you throw it up in the air. is the author of what the state's congressional delegation calls the "screw Nevada" bill recommending Yucca Mountain.. "Nobody wants this waste. Bennett Johnston. http://www. The vice president scowled when he was asked if he would be willing to put the waste in either of those two states. This spent fuel is so deadly it can remain a potential threat to public health and safety for thousands of years. as the most likely site to bury the dangerous stuff. have thus far managed to fend off final federal approval. past chairman of the National Press Foundation. J. 90 miles from Las Vegas." 32 ." acknowledges Frank Murkowski. Former Sen. Bush. Former Sen. In 1987. Harry Reid. A leak could silently contaminate many miles of groundwater that millions of people depend on. But furious Nevada officials. D-Nev. Congress designated Nevada's Yucca Mountain. And conservative Utah has considerable influence with Bush. Not for a day. where Cheney grew up from age 13 on. Spencer Abraham. But Sen. Cheney Will Face Wall of Opposition If They Try To Resurrect Nuclear Power. echoing Murkowski that "it will have to be put someplace. who has promised to veto any legislation that allows temporary storage. looking for a friendly Democrat to include in his Cabinet. it is going to come down somewhere. Bush's home state." Two places it is not likely to come down are Texas.. It was promoted as a temporary location for the waste casks for several years until the Yucca Mountain facility can be built.000 tons of high-level nuclear waste currently accumulating at 103 commercial reactor sites around the country. considered selecting Johnston. "It is a highly politicized issue. An alternate waste site was suggested in Utah on the Skull Valley Goshute Indian Reservation.org/views01/0412-05. Hearst Newspapers. Recently they sharply challenged the scientific integrity of a feasibility study that found the location suitable for long-term storage. He ducked the issue.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Yucca – Costs PC Repealing waste limitations on Yucca would collapse Bush’s political capital Marianne Means. D-La. using all their political clout. Last December Bush.

Alternet.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Yucca – Dems oppose Dems won’t support Yucca – Reid and elections John Gorenfeld. but now signed off on the project rather than wait. And Bush.alternet. the party's Senate Majority Leader and the responsible party for the early caucus date. "I have spent 20 years fighting the absurd idea that massive quantities of deadly nuclear waste can be transported across thousands of miles. the next step to establishing Yucca just may play a role in the 2008 general election. In 2002.org/environment/63261/?page=1 Any Democrat who wanted to support Yucca would have to deal with Harry Reid. Freelance Journalist." Reid has said. He was calling Bush a liar over Yucca long before he opposed him on Iraq.S. 11-13-2007. government will consider a 10. It's a license application that will fall smack in the middle of the presidential race next summer. http://www. The U. he told the New Yorker." Six years later. 33 . "started out on a real bad foot with me because of Yucca Mountain." The president had run promising to consider "sound science" before supporting Yucca. Nevada's Clout in the Primaries Puts the Spotlight on Nuclear Politics. Reid told Bush in an Oval Office meeting: "You sold out on this.000- page application and decide whether to grant permission to go ahead.

S. 34 . as both Republicans and Democrats sought to show they are responding to high energy prices in an election year. starting with seeking to open long-closed areas on the outer continental shelf.html?mod=googlenews_wsj WASHINGTON -. where the government says an estimated 18 billion barrels of oil and several trillion cubic feet of natural gas lie undiscovered. particularly over-the-counter swaps markets and foreign exchanges operating in the U. Sen. Republicans are hammering away at the issue. Reid suggested Tuesday he might agree to at least allow votes on the drilling issue. 7-15-2008. Reid. Reid Faces More Heat To Ease Oil-Drilling Ban. a Nevada Democrat. "We're happy to take a look at a number of different approaches.com/article/SB121617044402856421." he said. "If we get on to the speculation bill. we'll take a look at ways to amend that. But Republicans said they may try to block that legislation if it doesn't include measures to allow new domestic oil production.Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid faced more pressure to ease a congressional ban on expanded offshore drilling for oil. Sen.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Reid key to OCS OCS vote will pass now if Senator Reid agrees Wall Street Journal. said he is ready to move a bill targeting what he called "greedy speculators." With several polls showing a rise in public support for more drilling offshore." which would give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission greater authority to regulate energy futures.wsj. http://online.

But that will not be enough to bring about the military revolution that Mr Bush has effectively promised. New reconnaissance systems promise to give commanders an unrivalled view of any future battlefield. Each of America's armed forces represents a huge bureaucracy of vested interests. tells the American people all they need to know about the choice they face in this election.1 trillion budget would increase US military spending for the 11th straight year while slicing about $200bn from the social security and Medicare programs that aid older Americans. not least Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. which could eat up funding." Obama said through a spokesman. "The fact that John McCain.uk/world/2008/feb/04/usa. Both Dems and Republicans hate military spending Elana Schor is a staff reporter for Guardian America. Painful choices But in the conventional field. a veteran Pentagon insider. called the Bush budget "fiscally irresponsible and highly deceptive". Vested interests Fundamental change. where there may be a significant shift away from regarding Russia as the benchmark for constructing America's own nuclear forces. hoping to win the Democrats' presidential nod this spring. Judd Gregg. focusing more on social programmes than the White House. from Colin Powell - a former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff . Bush assumes that the Democrats who control Congress would cement his legacy by permanently extending individual and corporate tax cuts. a former defence secretary. That claim of a balanced budget hinges on only $70bn in spending on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. To take on such interests. The bottom line. even members of his own party gave the budget little credence." Gregg said. 2001. where every weapons system has its supporters in both the services and on Capitol Hill.bbc." the Democrat said in a statement. The $3. Democrats criticise Bush budget for fudging Iraq costs http://www. The presidential budget traditionally serves as a guide for Congress in its decisions over spending levels for government programmes. Revealing the extent of Bush's diminished political capital.stm But changes in military technology are also shaping the challenges of the future. The tempo and range of future combat may be very different. It will require an extraordinary investment of political capital.elanaschor George Bush released his annual budget plan today. used the budget's rosy projection of indefinite tax cuts to hammer the Republicans' likely nominee. now embraces them. and fails to respond to the real problems facing middle-class families. By contrast.uk/2/hi/americas/1349698. difficult choices will quickly become painful choices. which are likely to expire for the wealthiest taxpayers. Some $30 to $35bn in additional money may be needed in the 2002 fiscal year. 24 May. Defence reform is going to need new money.' http://news. which is the single biggest factor contributing to the long-term fiscal crisis we face. and Vice-President Dick Cheney. as ever. Fundamental defence reform is not going to be an easy brief.at the State Department. This administration is full of inside military knowledge. 2-4-2008. The majority party is likely to set separate priorities. which Congress must adjust every year to avoid leaving middle-class Americans with a huge tax bill. Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. prompting disdain from congressional Democrats who chastised the president for again fudging the costs of the Iraq war and tax cuts in order to claim he could erase the US deficit.guardian. The US needs more joint effort between the services and less duplication. but it needs to use this advantage in new ways.co. "Any budget. But Democrats have neither willingness nor compelling reason to meet Bush halfway during his last year in office. the president's budget does nothing to strengthen our economy. the senior Republican on the Senate budget committee. who once opposed these tax cuts.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Military Link – costs PC Modernizing the military costs political capital BBC News.more than twice as much as 2007 .co. released a statement that pointed out where the president fell short. The US remains the technological leader. Barack Obama. in the Pentagon is a matter as much of culture as of planning. needs to address the unsustainable growth of entitlement spending. to be effective. More accurate and longer-range weaponry is proliferating. Mr Bush has given strong backing to missile defence. leading a chorus of alarm in his party. The Bush budget also fails to account for the growth of the alternative minimum tax.before achieving balance in 2012. though. President Bush has chosen a strong team. The budget deficit under Bush's proposal would balloon to $410bn this year . "A 35 . an estimate that even White House aides acknowledge they will exceed during the next fiscal year. Bush seeks 'military revolution. is the dollar. Some defence experts believe that Mr Bush may have much more success in the nuclear field. "In the face of a looming recession.

such as fully funding the expected costs of the war on terror.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus budget also needs to honestly address the numbers contributing to its bottom line." 36 .

But his priorities are clear. April 12." For the economy. He told us that a president "is only here for a short while. an economics research and consulting service." and has to spend his political capital on "big projects. Tommy Franks drives the war.com/article. http://www. then Bush is going to emerge with all the political capital he needs. and Bush is entirely aware that while the war in Iraq rages.capmag. 2003 Bush's Next War to Liberate the American Economy. On the verge of a spectacular victory in Iraq.'’ 37 .Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Winning Iraq – Increases PC Winning in Iraq will increase Bush’s capital Don Luskin is Chief Investment Officer for Trend Macrolytics. But it ain't over till it's over. "I'm not going to let the stock market drive the war. the American public and American markets will be on an emotional roller coaster. He told us.asp?ID=2676 To do that will require enormous political capital. And he told us that he's committed to spending it. Bush may have that capital within his reach. Capitalism Magazine. Bush told us that means no less than a vision to "forever change this country into 'entrepreneurial heaven." But if this war concludes as favorably as it looks like it just might.

Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Military Hydrogen – Popular Supporting hydrogen production for the military is popular John Dizard. There is going to be more and more political pressure to achieve energy independence rather than face the prospect of endless military occupations of sources of oil. Bush. and aircraft to burn the pollution free fuel in various forms. It would solve a problem. staff writer Financial Times UK. ships. but it could take 20 years or so. Iraq and the hydrogen economy There can be no one left who thinks that yesterday's elections in Iraq will have ended the political instability in the Middle East. Jan 31 2005. It is now assumed even by the US military leadership that the forces in Iraq cannot be significantly decreased for years. 38 . The closest thing to an independence plan produced by the Bush administration or the energy industry is the hydrogen economy. The idea is to convert our vehicles.

39 . to forget market economics. Daily Camera.htmz President Bushis promoting the use of nuclear power plants to generate electricity. in particular. http://www.D. and California. one also has to be willing to forget Three Mile Island. the commercial nuclear power enterprise in this country developed a dual personality. unlike. From its inception in the late 1950's. commercial industry. degree in Engineering from the University of California in Berkeley energy policy formulation and analysis he worked for the U. of the kind that are in his support base. Because radioactive materials are toxic. from beginning to end. They belong to a very exclusive big-money club. The reason is that what makes a nuclear power plant "nuclear" is its fissionable fuel. radioactive waste and.org/views05/0430-24. It had to be. governments. the government today has to be a party to every phase of nuclear power generation. and concerns of national security. It is schizophrenic. say.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Nuclear Power – GOP and lobbies like Nuclear plants are popluar with the GOP and big businesses Meir Carasso Ph.commondreams. and there are many billions of dollars at stake.S. It seems a political choice. Nuclear Power Looks Worse Than Ever. and is entirely dependent on agencies of the federal government. is not a self- sufficient. But to belong. to forget nuclear terrorism. Investing in nuclear power plants can be attempted only by very large corporations. nuclear proliferation. 2005. and nuclear fuel is radioactive. the automobile industry. as it were. The nuclear industry.

" Kerekes added. The Heartland Institute." said Kerekes." The report also notes further advances in nuclear plant design. "It will take time to bring these next-generation facilities online. "That will reduce the plants' complexity. As the name suggests. a policy arm of the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC)." Deregulation Needed The report stresses. "It reflects the fact that there is considerable bipartisan support for nuclear energy and there has been such support for a long time. Drew Wilson. "For example. making them easier to inspect and maintain." Wilson said of any proposed Yucca Mountain legislation. pipes. "In addition to these three new approved designs. natural circulation." New Technological Advances Key to the DLC's support for nuclear power are technological advances that substantially improve on an already impressive safety and environmental record. so it can help clean up the air and combat climate change. "There is broad public support for nuclear power. these smaller plants would use hundreds of thousands of uranium pebbles rather than large cores to generate power. "From a safety perspective.org/Article. "at least four other designs may soon win NRC approval. "It produces no greenhouse gas emissions." Kerekes said. "It won't be moving for long if the majority leader is controlling the agenda. "New plant designs promise to produce power more safely and economically than first-generation facilities.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Nuclear – Popular (Pub." the report urges. the new plants rely on natural forces such as gravity." the report states. however." the report continues." the report adds. Democrat Group Calls for More Nuclear Power. As researchers at MIT recently concluded. While the project "is not proceeding at the pace we would like. valves. Among these is the promising modular." Nuclear Energy Institute spokesman Steve Kerekes said. "Support for clean.S. February 1. and condensation." Kerekes continued. the report encourages Democrats to take action now to remove regulatory hurdles that slow the development and construction process." 40 . centralized storage facility. "We certainly welcome the Progressive Policy Institute support. and overrides Reid’s opposition James Hoare. 'pebble bed' reactor design. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) to block completion of the Yucca Mountain storage facility for spent nuclear fuel. used fuel must be stored in many places around the country. assuring safe shutdown even in the event of an accident. told attendees at a nuclear power conference that Reid "is not going to change" his opposition to Yucca Mountain and that he will do whatever he can to block legislation that would assist completion of the facility. Progressives should support efforts to expedite the process. and economical nuclear power continues to build all across America. Dems) Nuclear power is popular with dems and public – safer now." Political Landscape in Flux The DLC's support for nuclear power may undermine efforts by U. On December 7 Reid's clerk. according to an October 2006 report by the Progressive Policy Institute. that technological advances such as pebble bed reactors require a great deal of time to navigate through regulatory processes and actually get built. "And until Yucca comes online. The report. against the wishes of citizens who desire one safe. "Harry Reid has acknowledged in the past that he alone cannot kill the program." praises nuclear power as a key weapon against asserted global climate change and air quality concerns.heartland. these pebbles burn more completely than their traditional counterparts. "A Progressive Energy Platform." the report explains. As a result. and cables than first-generation facilities. safe. "We anticipate this report will have a positive impact among Democrats and among citizens as a whole. the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has certified three new designs that would use significantly fewer pumps. Environment & Climate News. he expects DLC support for nuclear power to minimize Reid's influence in blocking Yucca Mountain progress. http://www.cfm?artId=20509 Nuclear power offers a safe and economical way to meet anticipated growth in American energy demand. "Nuclear power holds great potential to be an integral part of a diversified energy portfolio for America. 2007.

"I actually think we should explore nuclear power as part of the mix.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Nuclear – McCain McCain and GOP control nuclear power – they support it strongly compared to Obama and dems David Kestenbaum. John Edwards went first.org/templates/story/story. As a Navy pilot. The question came up during an early Democratic primary debate. who generate 80 percent of their power from nuclear. McCain's enthusiasm for nuclear has put him in unusual territory for a Republican: He's been praising the French. July 21. then nuclear energy is a powerful. though they've sometimes chosen their words with care. which today are essentially floating nuclear-powered cities." he said. Former North Carolina Sen. he landed on aircraft carriers. McCain is the most comfortable with the topic. Barack Obama and John McCain see it as a way to combat climate change. Obama went next. 2008. safest and most reliable energy sources on Earth.php?storyId=92690120 Nuclear power doesn't usually make for an applause line in a stump speech. McCain calls nuclear "one of the cleanest. powerful ally in that cause." he said in a May speech. a much safer topic. Nuclear Power A Thorny Issue For Candidates. saying he did not favor nuclear power. Obama's position is also somewhat unusual for a Democrat: He thinks nuclear power might be a good idea. before pivoting to solar energy. Of the two. Both Sens. NPR.npr. Science Desk. Correspondent. but it has come up on the campaign trail. 41 . http://www." "If we want to arrest global warming.

really.ART. It's difficult to categorize the liberals who support nuclear power and those who do not. ELIZABETH SOUDER. http://www. 42 . a Democratic political consulting firm in Austin. The debate is just beginning. Tony Kreindler. "It's clearly a mixed bag. who opposes nuclear power and worked on environmental efforts surrounding Barton Springs in Austin.State. business types. a spokesman for Environmental Defense. The amount tends to match the candidate's acceptance of nuclear power and tends to be higher than what Republican candidates have received from the same companies." said Mr.html Democratic voters haven't come to a consensus either. said his group reconsidered its anti-nuclear stance a few years ago." said Tom "Smitty" Smith." said Mr. Now the environmental advocacy group says nuclear power is an important low- carbon energy option. It's not necessarily young students conscious of climate change vs. including the presidential candidates." Dean Rindy. particularly senators and congressmen who have those nuclear facilities in their districts.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus AT: Dems hate Nuclear (elections/agenda) Dems are ambivalent on the issue Dallas Morning News. said most people.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/DN-nukes_27bus. 1-27-08. head of the Texas office for Public Citizen. "There hasn't been a lot of passionate debate on this in Democratic caucuses. Rindy. head of Rindy Miller Media. Uranium used in nuclear plants isn't a renewable fuel. aging anti-nuke hippies.2af68e5. So even the most connected politicos can't predict which way the party will go. though members still worry about safety. The dividing line seems to be between people who are motivated to compromise with the energy industry and those who want to devote resources solely to renewable power.Edition1. Freeman of the Nuclear Energy Institute. All three top Democratic candidates have received donations from employees of nuclear power companies. which opposes nuclear power. are customarily supportive of nuclear power. And it's not always environmental activists vs.dallasnews. Nuclear plants become a factor in elections. "Even people who were strong anti-nukers are beginning to have that conversation again. "Members of the political class. haven't been forced to choose a position on nuclear power yet.

no. But that high price tag--$5 billion annually for at least the next 4 years. and the 2004 election campaign. money. a member of the panel that reviewed the Columbia accident. it will take a lot of money and political capital to get us out before you go searching for something new.S. http://www. other presidents have had less luck winning support for human space flight. any human space flight proposal faces skepticism--or worse. senior writer with Science Magazine and Freelance Journalist. President Ronald Reagan's 1984 proposal to build a space station has taken vastly more time.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus NASA – PC links Funding NASA costs pol cap Andrew Lawler. p.sciencemag. 5652. Although his bold vision was realized. p. and President George H.org/cgi/content/full/302/5652/1873?ck=nck Congressional aides and other observers warn that any new mission will have to fit into an agency budget already strained by repairs to the space shuttle. Sources say that a small team of senior White House and federal agency officials has finished work on a tightly held set of options for the president. and deficits Andrew Lawler. Now Bush's son is pondering whether to propose a dramatic new direction for NASA in the wake of February's Columbia accident. and political capital than anticipated. 1873HUMAN SPACE FLIGHT: Bush Plan for NASA: Watch This Space. the completion of the space station. 5652. not to mention development of a shuttle alternative. "We've gotten so far into a hole in the past 30 years. rising federal deficits. 12 December 2003. Bush's 1989 plan to return to the moon and land on Mars never left the ground.sciencemag. W. 302.org/cgi/content/full/302/5652/1873?ck=nck U. 12 December 2003. Science: Vol. 1873HUMAN SPACE FLIGHT: Bush Plan for NASA: Watch This Space. they say. But in a Washington focused on the war against terrorism. 43 . NASA should first resolve the problems facing the shuttle and station systems. and a new series of technologically advanced planetary probes." says George Washington University political scientist John Logsdon. war on terror. http://www. Expanding NASA costs pol cap – Columbia. Science: Vol. according to those sources--was rejected as unrealistic. senior writer with Science Magazine and Freelance Journalist. 302. NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe has already battled skeptics in the Administration--and lost. no. space enthusiasts are blessed and cursed by President John F. White House officials say that O'Keefe pushed this fall for a dramatic increase in the agency's $15 billion budget to begin work that would ultimately lead to human Mars missions. Kennedy's 1961 call to go to the moon by the end of the decade.

however. housing and loan-guarantee budget areas have left the chairman.spacedaily. NASA now faces a similar battle next week in the Senate. it could trigger the first serious political debate about space spending since the 1989 and 1990 fights over the International Space Station. where members of the coinciding appropriations subcommittee killed Bush's new space exploration budget. It might even be possible. This latest cliff-hanger was triggered last week by tight spending limits imposed on subcommittee appropriators.including Boeing. Shortfalls in the VA. and it failed to pass either house of Congress and eventually was abandoned.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus NASA .called the crew exploration vehicle or CEV -- as well as the booster rocket to lift it into space. Regarding the latest funding effort. Majority Leader. 2004. lame-duck Congress returns. Those funds came out of unspent money remaining in fiscal year 2004. came within a single vote of canceling the station before the administration prevailed. NASA already has started the countdown to release of a January 2005 request for proposals for the new moonship -. aerospace firms that would design and manufacture the new space vehicles. uncompleted spending measures in a so-called omnibus bill. Bush.himself a former Senate staffer -. NASA Faces Final Budget Debate. UPI. Tom Delay.a dream by the current president's father to send astronauts back to the moon and onward to Mars. and independent agencies -. Sen.html Washington DC (UPI) Sep 16.com/news/nasa-04zm. R-Texas.. Such a strategy would mirror what happened in the House. it now would be in bottom of the eighth inning with score tied -. but failed to move the corpse to the floor. O'Keefe -.to start planning the lunar missions and related scientific research programs. Having failed to win House of Representatives approval for funding of President Bush's ambitious plan to send astronauts back to the moon and on to Mars. it would effectively kill all of the new space projects the president has sought. with insufficient room to cover the needs of the agencies under his purview. has vowed to block the bill from getting to the floor if it does not contain the requested money. http://www. he might urge NASA's supporters in Congress to attempt to link it with other. R-Mo. He may well be right about that. Christopher S. Northrop Grumman and smaller businesses and non-profits -. What was canceled.including NASA -- likewise may not approve new funds for the Bush space plan. equipment. Those funding battles. which ends Sept.and Congress at bat. Rep.W.PC Link Funding NASA costs political capital Frank Sietzen Jr. and it could be quite costly for O'Keefe in terms of political capital. The move would be tricky. Kit Bond. Further upping the ante. UPI staff writer. to add more funds in the House-Senate conference than either side had approved separately. O'Keefe also might have one more budget trick up his sleeve: If either the House or the Senate fails to approve a separate space appropriations bill. and Congress fails to include the $866 million requested by the administration in its final legislation. Last week.. the agency awarded some $27 million in study contracts to 11 firms -. 30. At stake are potential billions of dollars in development contracts for the U. Time is running out before the pre-election congressional recess. If the appropriations bill actually moves to the Senate floor for a vote. White House officials have let it be known the president would veto any space spending bill that excluded funds for his new project. Lockheed Martin. the appropriations subcommittee that reviews the budgets of the Veterans Administration. was another Bush 41 space initiative -. The idea was less detailed and developed than the project proposed by the current president.could forestall the budget ax if he manages to prevent the appropriations bill from receiving a vote on the Senate floor and exploiting its tightly constrained calendar. 44 . however. If this happens. robots and launching rockets for the Bush space plan. There. under this strategy. 2004 If NASA's battle over its fiscal year 2005 budget were a baseball game.S. O'Keefe reminded senators on the appropriations subcommittee of this fact last week. NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe once told United Press International he considered these maneuvers a political game of chicken. which occurred under President George H. so any unfinished business would be held over until the post-election. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

energy. NCAI is a non-partisan organization that has built successful relationships on both sides of the aisle for many decades. but we must address this obstructionism that stops all legislation no matter how bi-partisan and non-controversial.com/main/index. and the shared values of federalism that encourage local decision-making. economic development. http://www.S. religious freedom." said National Congress of American Indians (NCAI) President Joe A.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=480&Itemid=1&ed=68 Blow after blow.S. "At first we thought that it was coincidence that so many bills on Native issues were being blocked by members of the Republican Steering Committee. It is a very small number of Republican Senators. veterans. tribal sovereignty. Tribal leaders and the Republican Party share strong interests in law enforcement. and many other issues.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus GOP hates Natives GOP opposes bills supporting natives Tanasi Journal. "But it is clear now that it is not." 45 . which explicitly recognizes the treaty rights. Native American Community Shocked by Senate Republican Steering Committee Opposition. the military. the U. The Senate Republican Steering Committee is a small group of Senators who have been working together to put secret "holds" on all legislation benefiting Indian tribes and Indian people. Indian Country has had strong ties to the Republican Party through the Indian Self-Determination Policy and respect for the U. Constitution. 17 August 2007.tanasijournal. Garcia. Senate Republican Steering Committee continues to block all legislation that benefits Indian people.

Distributive or "porkbarrel" programs. First. surely no single issue has contributed more to the Bush administration’s ability to pursue a hard-right agenda than the war on terror—the political capital afforded by that issue has been the main reason Bush has been. and as President Reagan discovered when he vetoed the highway bill in 1987. although support from the opposition is lower at all levels of ideological conflict (Bond and Fleisher 1980.Texas A&M & Professor in Political Science . While political values shared between the president and members of Congress provide an important linkage source. most members of Congress are pragmatic politicians who do not have views and preferences at the extremes of a liberal-conservative continuum.org/article/?article=779 Furthermore. But now that political capital has evaporated precisely because of the Iraq War. the president tends to lose support from members of both parties at about the same rate. as ideological dif- ferences increase. can frequently build working majorities composed of their partisan base and like-minded members of the opposition. But this coalition of conservatives has no formal organization with elected leaders to serve as a communication and information center. Thus ideological forces in Congress often cause the formation of bipartisan coalitions to support or oppose the president's policy preferences. Brady and Bullock 1980. This lack of political capital means that the GOP now has few options left with which to push its right-wing policies on a less and less interested public. 75). so successful in turning the country to the right. on the other hand. Even conservatives who want to cut domestic spending and liberals who want to reduce defense spending work to protect domestic and defense programs in their districts. typically do not produce ideological divisions. Finally. ideology is a less important voting cue for moderates than it is for ideological extremists (Kingdon 1981. http://www. The "conservative coalition" of Republicans and southern Democrats. Professor in Political Science . ideological voting blocs are relatively informal coalitions composed of individuals who have similar values. for example. until recently. the effects of ideology are limited for several reasons. 46 . Senior Fellow at both The Century Foundation and American Progress. in turn.dissentmagazine.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus AT: No spillover Vote Switching is Real – ideology is minimal Bond & Fleisher. These ideological forces help explain why majority presidents have only a limited advantage over minority presidents in building majority support for their positions in Congress. Political capital spills over by controlling spin – War on terror proves Ruy Teixeira. most representatives' electoral self-interest is probably best served by avoiding ideological extremes. Because the typical American voter is not strongly ideological. and Richard The President in Legislation) pg 54 In a previous study of presidential-congressional relations from Eisenhower to Ford. Majority presidents inevitably experience defections of partisans who have ideologies in conflict with theirs. many votes that may be important to the president do not involve ideological issues. That. In general. means that progressive policy views held by the public can more easily come to the fore and push the political debate to the left. 268). Although there are several ideologies.Fordham 19 96 (Jon R. appears on certain votes and sometimes has a significant influence on the outcome of floor votes (Shelley 1983. Spring 2007. an extraordinary development. Dissent Magazine. for example. Moving Left? Bush’s Decline and American Liberalism. the most recent polls suggest that it will not be long before Bush’s approval rating on handling terrorism dips below 40 percent. Manley 1973). as President Carter discovered when he opposed several water projects in 1977. Second. Indeed. Minority presidents. As noted above. Presidents who attempt to tamper with these programs are likely to find few friends in Congress. we found that ideological conflict between the president and members of Congress was associated with lower support.

Following is a theoretical framework built upon this knowledge. A president can spend capital for noble goals such as a balanced budget. “I felt like he tried to spend capital on issues that he didn't have any capital on at first. political ideology. Knowledge of the effects and limitations of the systematic forces that influence congressional behavior provides a foundation for a theory to explain the linkage between the president and Congress. 47 .edu/trachtenberg/2005%20Proceedings%20Lee.pdf] Instead of investing political capital. The president cannot direct leadership towards already prioritized Congress. President George W. the president diminishes his political strength by initiating or pushing a policy proposal with no intent on return. In times of increased political capital. and Richard The President in Legislation) pg 33 Presidential leadership skill operates at the margin because "members of Congress have their own political needs and priorities.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus No Spillover Bush doesn’t believe capital spills over between issues Andrew. the president may spend it on an initiative. The theory of political capital as it relates to SAPs is that presidents are more likely to spend political capital through a presidential veto because they have the power to do so. President Clinton’s first term actions to balance the budget and normalize trade with China did not yield returns.Texas A&M & Professor in Political Science . When spending political capital. or to veto legislation. he accrued a large amount of capital from the September 11th attacks. LEE The Rose Institute of State & Local Government – Claremont McKenna College – Presented at the Georgia Political Science Association 2005 Conference “Invest or Spend?:Political capital and Statements of Administration Policy in the First Term of the George W. the literature identifies political parties. Commenting on President Clinton’s term. whoever he is. Political capital is not equal in all policy areas. is mostly powerless to affect" (King 1983. In spending political capital. Bush said.Fordham 1996 (Jon R. This analysis is a case study of the first Bush term’s adherence to this hypothesis. the president does not necessarily expect higher approval ratings. In summary.” http://a- s. and there is no guarantee that the president will be able to exploit the potential advantages to secure the votes he needs. Bond & Fleisher. In President Bush’s first term. the relative strength of SAP wording will also increase because the president has greater flexibility to take stands on particular issues. Each source is characterized by inherent limitations. Bush Presidency. and subsequently spent a substantial portion pursuing the Iraq war. which the president. 265).clayton. and presidential leadership skill as linkage agents that can serve as sources of presidential support in Congress. popularity with the public. balancing the budget in 1993 was a reason for the change of congressional control from the Democrats to the Republicans (Panetta 2002. In fact. 201-02). Professor in Political Science . like health care” (quoted in Suellentrop 2004). the end of Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Tim Johnson (S. and his home-state comrade. a whip count this far out is very. two of those four end up supporting cloture.).tnr. very rough. taking some of the emotional edge off the vote. it looks like it's going to be an uphill fight unless the occupant of the White House decides to expend some political capital on it. Gaming Out Cap-and-Trade in the Next Congress.). but what are the odds of that? 48 . only Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter seems like the type who might be persuaded to vote for cloture. proponents of cap-and-trade would have to pick up four votes from the "no" group without losing any supporters (it's conceivable that someone like Norm Coleman or Elizabeth Dole might suddenly have a change of heart when they're not facing tough re-election fights).com/tnr/blogs/environmentandenergy/archive/2008/06/06/gaming-out-cap-and- trade-in-the-next-congress. or pick up a stray Republican or two (probably by bribing them with pork). Lieberman–Warner didn't come close to getting the 60 votes needed for cloture this year. plus pledges from six more senators who missed the vote but say they would have voted for cloture. there are two Democrats: West Virginia's Robert Byrd and North Dakota's Kent Conrad. but here's some idea. Among the ten senators who missed the vote and didn't pledge to support cloture. Jay Rockefeller. Harvard Political Review editor-in-chief and former UC member. and Sherrod Brown (Ohio).D. voted for cloture). Byrd apparently opposed the bill (although his fellow Mountain Stater. 6-6-08. Conrad was apparently on the fence.aspx As Brad notes. All in all. win an upset victory over someone like Texas's John Cornyn or Mississippi's Roger Wicker. Mary Landrieu (La. the New Republic.Updates DDI 2008 <KO> Santa Claus Cap and trade link Cap and trade is unpopular in Congress Josh Patashnik. so getting his vote seems unlikely. Where might those votes come from if a similar bill is brought up next year? Obviously. is also a possibility. So that means it came up six votes short. Then you'd have to either cobble together two more votes from among the four Democrats who voted no--Dorgan. voted no. say. It probably also wouldn't hurt if gas prices went down in the interim. Among the Republicans who didn't vote. who will face re-election in 2010 in environmentally conscious New Hampshire. perhaps Judd Gregg. It got 48 votes (roll call here). If. blog. Byron Dorgan. Wayne Allard of Colorado and Pete Domenici of New Mexico could well be replaced by the two Udalls. http://blogs.