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The Caucasus

DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

The Caucasus
The Caucasus..........................................................................................................................................................1
U – Armenia/Azerbaijian......................................................................................................................................2
U – Ossetia..............................................................................................................................................................3
U – Ingushetia.........................................................................................................................................................4
U – Kabardino-Balkaria........................................................................................................................................5
U – Georgia.............................................................................................................................................................6
U – Abkhazia..........................................................................................................................................................7
No Ossetia War.......................................................................................................................................................8
No Caucasus War...................................................................................................................................................9
No Caspian War...................................................................................................................................................10
No Turkish Involvement......................................................................................................................................11

1
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

U – Armenia/Azerbaijian
Armenia and Azerbaijian have been permanently unstable since independence
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia), 7/7/08, “BAKU IN THE FOCUS OF INTRIGUE” lexis [BB]
After the breakup of the USSR the Transcaucasian states of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia turned out to be in the
zone of permanent geopolitical instability. This circumstance impacts not only the foreign policy of these countries but
also their ability to build their statehood. Georgia and Azerbaijan lost control over part of their territories. Armenia
being in economic blockade is painfully seeking a vector for development acceptable for it and has acute reaction to
changes of the established fragile balance in this sensitive region of the world. Hence, during preparation of the visit of the
Russian President to Azerbaijan, Moscow did its best to observe politeness: President of Armenia Serzh Sarkisyan visited
Russia previously according to an invitation of Dmitry Medvedev.

2
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

U – Ossetia
Ossetia instable now – they’re preparing for war against Georgia
Daily News Bulletin (Moscow), 8/2/08, “S. Ossetia May Order Full Mobilization, Recruit Volunteers in N. Caucasus – Kokoity”
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2467202&title=S_Ossetia_May_Order.html [BB]
The South Ossetian authorities are prepared to order general mobilization and announce the recruitment of volunteers
throughout the entire North Caucasus to oppose Georgia's attacks, South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity said. "If Georgia
continues provocative actions, we will announce the recruitment of volunteers not only in the North Ossetia but in the entire
North Caucasus and also carry out general mobilization in South Ossetia," Kokoity told Interfax on Saturday. Kokoity said he
had discussed the Georgian attacks with North Ossetian President Teimuraz Mamsurov. Response fire opened by South Ossetian
forces inflicted significant damage on Georgian troops, Kokoity said. "There are losses among Georgian personnel and hardware," he
said. "A lot of strongholds on the Sarabuka Hill were hit, and in the morning we heard Georgian soldiers moaning and weeping, as no
aid was provided to them - in fact, they were abandoned," Kokoity said. Georgia is currently concealing the true losses it incurred
from South Ossetia's retaliatory actions, he said. South Ossetian forces have destroyed at least one armored personnel carrier, he said.
"A house belonging to a sniper, who earlier shot South Ossetian residents, has also been destroyed," Kokoity said. Residents of the
Georgian village "outraged by this man's activities" showed South Ossetian forces the house's location, he said. Kokoity admitted that
Tskhinvali had sustained significant damage because of the attacks. "About 30 craters from large-caliber mines were recorded in the
southern part of Tskhinvali alone in the morning," Kokoity said. South Ossetia has not known damages comparable to those caused by
the Friday firing since 2004, he said.

Russia’s threatening Georgia, threaten to use force


BBC Worldwide Monitoring, 8/4/08, “Moscow warns Georgia over escalation of conflict in breakaway region” lexis [BB]
Russia has accused Georgia of using disproportionate force in its breakaway republic of South Ossetia, and has called for
urgent steps to avoid violence, the Russian Foreign Ministry official website www.mid.ru has said. "Moscow is seriously concerned
with the escalation of tensions in the region caused by disproportionate use of force by the Georgian side," Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister Grigoriy Karasin told his Georgian counterpart Grigol Vashadze by phone. "Tbilisi should realize that there is a real
threat of the situation developing in a violent way, and should take effective measures not to allow further escalation of the conflict,"
the website quoted him as saying.

3
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

U – Ingushetia
Seriously? Chechnya hasn’t ever been stable, fighting is spilling over into
Dagestan and Ingushetia
Reuter, 7/30/08, “Car blast kils at least 2 in Russia's Ingushetia,” Reuters Worldwide
http://uk.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKL02844820080730 [BB]
At least two people were killed and five wounded when a car exploded outside a police station in the southern Russian region
of Ingushetia on Wednesday, police sources said. Police said an explosive device equivalent to 3-4 kg (6.6-8.8 lbs) of TNT blew up
under a vehicle in a parking lot full of service cars outside police headquarters in Nazran, the region's main city. "We will have exact
information on this only after an investigation is completed," a local police source said. Attacks, shootouts and bombings occur
frequently in Ingushetia, an impoverished Russian region in the Caucasus mountains. Much of the violence has been aimed at
police and judges. Russian forces have fought two wars in nearby Chechnya since 1994, killing thousands of people and
scarring the north Caucasus. The violence has spilled over into neighbouring Dagestan and Ingushetia, two of Russia's poorest
regions. (Writing by Chris Baldwin, editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Mary Gabriel)

Criminal gangs means constant instability in Ingushetia and Checnya


RNIA, Russia News and Information Agency, 8/1/08, “Russian serviceman killed in Ingushetia shooting”
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080801/115391573.html [BB]
One member of Russia's security forces was killed and another injured Friday in a shootout in the North Caucasus republic of
Ingushetia, local investigators said. The Interior Ministry troops were carrying out a dawn raid on a house in Malgobek when
they came under fire from four attackers. Investigators are on the scene and the building has been surrounded. The wounded
serviceman has been hospitalized. Security forces in Ingushetia, which borders the restive southern Russian republic of
Chechnya, are frequently involved in firefights with criminal gangs.

4
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

U – Kabardino-Balkaria
Terrorism and instability are spreading into Kabardino-Balkaria – it’s part of a
larger rebellion against Russia
Reuters, 7/8/08, “Three Killed in Russia’s N. Caucasus” http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSL08316455 [BB]
Three policemen were shot and killed early on Tuesday in Baksan, a small town in Russia's North Caucasus region of
Kabardino-Balkaria, news agency Interfax said quoting local law enforcement. "Criminals attacked a highway patrol post
situated in the so-called Baksan circle and shot dead three members of the police with an automatic weapon," police said. Two
wars in nearby Chechnya since 1994 have impoverished and scarred the North Caucasus, and sporadic violence across the
region happens almost daily, but attacks in Kabardino-Balkaria are less frequent than other provinces. In January unidentified
assailants in Kabardino-Balkaria attacked and killed the regional head of a police unit charged with fighting organised crime. Another
police officer from the same unit was shot dead in May at a car wash. It is unclear if these attacks are linked to a wider low
intensity rebellion across the north Caucasus against Russian forces or to local criminal groups.

5
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

U – Georgia
Russia is stepping up aggression on the Georgian border, US-Russian conflict is
inevitable
The Georgian Times, 7/28/08, “Georgia Gearing up for “Immediate Response”, Russia Flexing Muscles with “Caucasus Frontier
2008”” http://www.geotimes.ge/index.php?m=home&newsid=11713 [BB]
1,625 Georgian military servicemen are taking part in a large-scale international military training, alongside US forces, known
as Immediate Response at the site of the fourth infantry brigade of Vaziani base. This training is the first of its kind to be held in
Georgia and is part of the joint Georgian-American project. Within the program, command-headquarter training is being carried out
with land force brigades. One of the tasks Georgian and American soldiers had to fulfill together was patrolling near the selected
settled area where an unexpected attack recently took place. Georgian and American military personnel evacuated local population and
withdrew wounded people from the site. The Georgian-American trainings coincided with the Russian military exercises near
the Georgia-Russia border. The Georgian Foreign Ministry said that these trainings, Dubbed Caucasus Frontier 2008,
launched by Russia’s North Caucasian Military District (SKVO) on July 15 in close proximity of the border, are a continuation
of Russia’s aggressive policy. The exercises involve units of the North Caucasus Military District, mainly the 58th Army, the
4th Air Force Army, Interior Ministry troops, and border guards. They include some 8,000 Russian military personnel, about
700 armor units and over 30 aircraft. Russia has said, “In connection with an escalation in tension in the Georgian-Abkhaz
and Georgian-Ossetian conflict zones, issues related to involvement in special peace enforcement operations in the zones of
armed conflict will also be worked out during the exercises.” On July 10 Colonel General Sergey Makarov, the commander of
SKVO, said that Russia’s North Caucasian Military District was ready to provide assistance to Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia and
South Ossetia if needed. Tbilisi claims that Russia’s “aggressive policy” poses a threat to peace and stability in the entire
Caucasus region. Meanwhile, the Defense Ministry representatives say the plans for Immediate Response training began last
December.

6
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

U – Abkhazia
Uneasy peace in Abkhazia is being interfered by frequent terrorist activity
Xinhua, 7/6/08, “Four blasts reported in Georgia's Abkhazia” http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/06/content_8499076.htm
[BB]
Russian peacekeeping force said four blasts occurred on Sunday in Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia, Russian news
agency reported. There were no casualties in the blasts, Itar-Tass quoted Alexander Novitsky, assistant to the commander of the
Collective Peacekeeping Force in the zone of the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict. Last Monday, at least one person was killed and four
others were injured in two blasts at a central market in the capital of Abkhazia Sukhumi. Another two blasts took place a day
earlier in Abkhazia's Black Sea resort city of Gagra, injuring six people. Abkhazia declared independence from Georgia in the
1990s after the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991. But its self-proclaimed independence has yet to win international
recognition. An uneasy ceasefire was monitored by peacekeepers from Russia in the region.

Abkhazia headed towards war now – Georgia will protect its interests
Peter Fedynsky, VOA News Reporter, 4/14/08, “Mounting Tensions in Abkhazia Could Spark Caucasus War”
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2008/05/mil-080514-voa09.htm [BB]
Abkhazia today involves a series of charges, countercharges and denials. Abkhazian rebels say they have shot down several unmanned
Georgian surveillance planes over their territory since April. Tbilisi says only one has been hit and offers video as evidence the drone
was shot down by a Russian plane. And the Russian Foreign Ministry accuses Georgia of a military buildup near Abkhazia. All
sides say they will defend their interests and territory against possible attacks by the other. Georgian President Mikhail
Saakashvili says Georgia is not a big nation, but has good ammunition, good training, and the motivation to win against any possible
aggressor, invader, or occupier. He hastens to add that part of Georgia already is occupied by one of the biggest aggressors. By that
he means Russia, which has troops in Abkhazia, a region that formally belongs to Georgia. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov,
counters, he expresses his extreme concern at what he says is Georgia's current tendency toward confrontation based on ever
more alarming facts that Tbilisi is seeking to resolve the Abkhazian issue by force. Georgians and Abkhazians are separate ethnic
groups within Georgia, a nation concerned about its territorial integrity. Abkhazia seceded from Georgia in the 1990s and seeks formal
Russian recognition of its independence. Meanwhile, Moscow has issued Abkhazians Russian passports and has stationed
peacekeeping troops in the region. But independent Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer tells VOA the Russian peacekeeping
battalion is equipped with artillery, which seems inconsistent with its stated mission. Felgenhauer says U.N. observers have not been
allowed to inspect the battalion's positions. He notes, however, that Russian TV was there and showed heavy armaments that indicate
Russians are not there as peacekeepers. Felgenhauer says Moscow is concerned with possible Georgian membership in NATO, which
the Kremlin views as a threat. Such membership would put NATO troops just over the mountains from the Russian resort city of
Sochi, the site of the 2014 Winter Olympic Games. Felgenhauer warns hostilities could break out at any time. The military analyst
says he was told last year by the President of Abkhazia, Sergei Bagapsh, a few days ago by the Patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox
Church, Ilya II, and by Georgian officials - by everybody - that if fighting breaks out it will spread over the entire Caucasus. The
United Nations has expressed concern about the mounting tensions in Abkhazia. And in recent days, officials from the United
States and the European Union have been in the area seeking a peaceful resolution to the dispute.

7
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

No Ossetia War
No chance of great power war between Ossetia and Georgia – Russia wants US
coop and exclusively peaceful means
BBC Worldwide Monitoring, 8/4/08 “Russia asks USA to influence Georgia over South Ossetia” [BB]
Moscow expects Washington to influence Tbilisi in order to relive tensions in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone. "Russia
already called upon Tbilisi to take a responsible line and is also expecting constructive influence from Washington," says the Russian
Foreign Ministry statement issued on Monday [4 August] following a telephone conversation between Russian Deputy Foreign
Minister Grigoriy Karasin and US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried. "The Russian side expressed its deep concern in
connection with the new escalation of tension regarding South Ossetia, illegal actions by the Georgian side to increase the
presence of its armed forces in the region and its uncontrolled construction of fortifications," the statement said. All this, in the
view of the Russian Foreign Ministry, "leads to nervousness among the population in South Ossetia". The Russian Foreign Ministry
added that Daniel Fried shared the view that it is necessary to resolve the existing problems exclusively by peaceful means and
through talks.

8
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

No Caucasus War
Business interests mean US-Russian cooperation will overwhelm enmity – no
war in the Caucasus
Elkhan E. Nuriyev, Director of the Center for International Studies (CIS) and Associate Professor of Political Science and
International Affairs at the University of the Caucasus, 2/18/99, http://cns.miis.edu/cres/nuriyev.htm [BB]
Political instability is very bad for business. The ongoing uncertainty about regional stability and peace must be considered very
carefully by all countries involved in regional conflict resolution and the pipeline debate. Security issues are becoming very crucial
in the region, particularly the security for the planned Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline route and the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline.
Furthermore, both these routes may be impossible to build without the United States playing some geopolitical role. Such US
involvement in the region's economy will deter Russia and Iran from dominating their smaller pro-Western neighbors. There
might be extensive US and NATO intervention in the region and opposing blocs may emerge as a result. In this respect, many will be
concerned about Russia's reaction if unilateral policies are pursued or multilateral policies are enacted that exclude or attempt
to marginalize Russia. This will be a very difficult, but perhaps not impossible, task for the United States. The Caucasus, with
its large natural resources and a huge market of more than 200 million people, could develop into a region of peace and prosperity.
It could also become a huge area of economic, social and political instability, which would negatively affect the future of this region
and the world. Therefore, the Western democracies and regional powers should work more closely to create a balanced interplay of
international competition in the Caucasus and in the CIS territory as a whole.[18] Compromise must replace competition in the
pipeline interests; otherwise a more provoked Caucasus will bring poverty and bloodshed to everyone in the region, with no clear
winner. The resolution of the conflicts in the Caucasus will depend on how successfully great powers seek to end the competition for
primacy and control in the region. The great powers should foster cooperation instead of maintaining competition in the region. The
Caucasus, too, should choose conciliation over confrontation. All parties should think of what can be done to prevent history from
repeating itself for the second time in the 20th century. We are talking here about the future of the region and the character of the next
century's international relations. We are talking here about the ongoing geopolitical game, which is quickly becoming a paramount
challenge for the US policy-making toward the year 2000 and beyond. In the last decade, both Russia and the United States have
experienced the breakdown of a bipolar system. As these two great powers approach the 21st century, they are faced with new
geopolitical challenges in a multipolar world. With political changes brought by the end of the Cold War, the need for the United
States and Russia to work together is greater than ever before. It is therefore vital that both Russia and the United States, along
with their friends and allies, make significant contributions to reducing geopolitical tensions, resolving regional conflicts, and
building a lasting world peace. Now is the time for clearer and faster policy solutions. The United States, Russia and other key
players should make the appropriate decisions without delay. Tomorrow may be too late.

The US is not security threat to Russia – we can cooperate over energy policy
R. Craig Nation, Professor of Strategy and Director of Russian and Eurasian Studies at the U.S. Army War College since 1996, 2007,
“Russia, the United States, and the Caucasus,” Strategic Studies Institute, www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub764.pdf
[BB]
The United States has no vital interests at stake on the Russian periphery, and U.S. engagement does not place Russian
interests at risk. The enlargement of Western institutions such as the EU and NATO need not threaten Russia, toward whom they
manifest no hostile intent. Enlargement, in fact, can be perceived as a beneficial contribution to regional stability so long (and this is a
meaningful condition) as Russia itself is engaged positively. The NATO-Russia Council and EU-Russia Strategic Partnership
represent steps toward positive engagement, albeit, for the time being, inadequate ones. Russia is not a predator bent upon
subjugating its neighbors.81 Its motives in the Caucasus region are oriented strongly toward warding off further decline and securing
economic interests—the motives of “a status quo power that is no longer able to prevent or resist the rise of change.”82 The ogre of
Russian authoritarianism has been much discussed of late, but Putin’s agenda for authoritarian modernization, linked as it is
to the effort to recreate a strong and purposeful Russian state, need not be perceived as threatening or destabilizing. The
widespread presumption that Putin’s authoritarianism is tied to “the concomitant is rise of an increasingly assertive, neo-imperial
foreign policy” is just that, a presumption that may and should be challenged.83 Russia’s attempt to defend its leverage in strategically
sensitive areas adjacent to its borders is in some ways no more than prudent. For the United States, whose regional presence is built
upon the weak shoulders of political regimes in Azerbaijan and Georgia that are plagued by corruption, social unrest, and abuse of
authority, the attempt to achieve more robust cooperation with a Russian regional partner in areas where interests overlap
might be an option worth considering. Current trends are not positive, but they also are not irreversible.

9
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

No Caspian War
The great game is a lie – no chance of Central Asian war – US, China, Russia
will cooperate
Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director, Program Management Hudson Institute, 2006, “Averting a New Great Game in Central
Asia,” The Washington Quarterly, ASP [BB]
Central Asian security affairs have become much more complex than during the original nineteenth-century great game
between czarist Russia and the United Kingdom. At that time, these two governments could largely dominate local affairs, but
today a variety of influential actors are involved in the region. The early 1990s witnessed a vigorous competition between
Turkey and Iran for influence in Central Asia. More recently, India and Pakistan have pursued a mixture of cooperative and
competitive policies in the region that have influenced and been affected by their broader relationship. The now independent
Central Asian countries also invariably affect the region’s international relations as they seek to maneuver among the major
powers without compromising their newfound autonomy. Although Russia, China, and the United States substantially
affect regional security issues, they cannot dictate outcomes the way imperial governments frequently did a century ago.
Concerns about a renewed great game are thus exaggerated. The contest for influence in the region does not directly
challenge the vital national interests of China, Russia, or the United States, the most important extraregional countries in
Central Asian security affairs. Unless restrained, however, competitive pressures risk impeding opportunities for beneficial
cooperation among these countries. The three external great powers have incentives to compete for local allies, energy
resources, and military advantage, but they also share substantial interests, especially in reducing terrorism and drug
trafficking. If properly aligned, the major multilateral security organizations active in Central Asia could provide
opportunities for cooperative diplomacy in a region where bilateral ties traditionally have predominated.

Russia wouldn’t confront US forces – it wants US to counterbalance China and


maintain stability
Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director, Program Management Hudson Institute, 2006, “Averting a New Great Game in Central
Asia,” The Washington Quarterly, ASP [BB]
How long the Russian government will endorse the substantial U.S. military presence in Central Asia remains unclear.
Moscow initially accepted the deployments because U.S. forces could fight local Islamic extremists more effectively than
Russia and its local allies could. More recently, the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the Colored Revolutions that deposed pro-
Moscow governments in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan have led influential Russians to view the continued U.S. presence
as a major source of instability. In February 2005, the Russian Foreign Ministry pressured the Kyrgyz government to reject a
U.S. request to station AWACS aircraft at Ganci.9 Since then, Russia’s state-dominated media has repeatedly urged Central Asian governments to
crack down on U.S.-supported civil liberties groups.10 Alexander Vershbow, the departing U.S. ambassador to Russia, said that, to draw
Central Asian states closer to Moscow, some Russian officials had launched a “concerted and coordinated effort to foster the
impression that the United States is trying to undermine the regimes in the region.”11 Pushing too hard for U.S.
disengagement, however, could antagonize Washington, aggravate regional instability, and alarm Central Asians seeking
to balance the great powers. Moscow confronts more pressing security challenges in the Caucasus, especially Chechnya,
and would prefer not to divert resources to fill the security vacuum that would follow a U.S. withdrawal. Russians
worried about China’s growing influence in Central Asia also favor a counterbalancing U.S. presence in the region.12

Geopolitical conflict won’t happen – Central Asia is a secondary factor and


cooperation is key
Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director, Program Management Hudson Institute, 2006, “Averting a New Great Game in Central
Asia,” The Washington Quarterly, ASP [BB]

Fortunately, the fact that Central Asia does not represent the most important geographic region for any external great
power also works against the revival of a traditional, geopolitical great-game conflict. Russia, China, and the United
States have strong reasons to cooperate in the region. Although each country has extensive goals in Central Asia, the
resources they have available to pursue them are limited, given other priorities. As long as their general relations
remain nonconfrontational, Moscow, Beijing, and Washington are unlikely to pursue policies in a lower priority region
such as Central Asia that could disrupt their overall ties. Most often, they will find it more efficient and effective to
collaborate to diminish redundancies, exploit synergies, and pool funding and other scarce assets in the pursuit of
common objectives. Unfounded fears or overtly competitive policies could undermine these opportunities for cooperation and
should be avoided.
10
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
The Caucasus
DDI 2008 GT
Brad Bolman

No Turkish Involvement
Turkey’s new foreign policy is specifically non-confrontational – they are acting
as a balancer for great power
Bulent Aras, Professor of International Relations, 4/15/08, “Turkish policy toward central Asia,” http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-
web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=141729&bolum=159 [BB]
Turkey’s policy toward Central Asia reflects the new characteristics of foreign policy line. Turkey pays serious attention to
preserve good neighborhood policies with Iran and Russia, while attempting to prevent their policies that may harm the peace and
stability in the region. Turkey’s other priority in its policy on Central Asia is to make sure that these new states acquire the necessary
abilities to establish stability and security at home. In this way, they may develop the capability of effectively coping with regional and
domestic problems. In this regard, the Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency (TİKA) has played a crucial role.
Turkey has provided funds to Central Asian countries since their independence. The funds are comparable to those allocated by
European countries. TİKA’s role has changed under the premises of new foreign policy vision. TİKA’s diverse activities in various
fields and substantial development aid are important in terms of demonstrating Turkey’s vision of sharing its gains with the “relative”
states and communities. Turkey’s new policy is also backed by civil societal activities. The impact of the new policy can be seen in the
total performance of civil and official activities in Central Asia. Turkish businessmen, contractors and civil society organizations
launched considerable number of initiatives and projects in Central Asian states. President Abdullah Gül, for instance, was
accompanied by the Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (TOBB) and high number of businessmen during his
visit to Turkmenistan in December 2007. Businessmen and civil society organizations are seen essential for Turkey’s commitment to
the stability and welfare of the region. Turkey gained self‐confidence to develop a more durable and constructive policy toward the
Central Asia. Turkish policy makers see this new policy line in a wider framework of following balanced relations with regional
countries like Russia, Iran, Pakistan, India and China and maintaining good relations with the U.S. and the European Union.
Turkey facilitates good relations with regional and international actors to gain strategic depth in Central Asia through
bilateral relations with the countries in the region. It is also pursuing a multi‐dimensional policy line to become a key political and
economical partner in the region.

11
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus