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DDI 2008 1

KO Misc

KO misc day 1
KO misc day 1.................................................................................................................................................................1
2AC T card – incentives..................................................................................................................................................2
T – Incentives Aren’t to Government..............................................................................................................................3
Political Capital High–Campaigning..............................................................................................................................4
Political Capital High–National Security........................................................................................................................5
Political Capital Low–Congress Reluctant.....................................................................................................................6
Political Capital Low–Corruption...................................................................................................................................7
Political Capital Low–Economy.....................................................................................................................................8
Political Capital Low–Iran..............................................................................................................................................9
Political Capital Low–Iraq/Afghanistan War................................................................................................................10
Political Capital Low–Partisan Politics.........................................................................................................................11
CFTA – U overwhelms..................................................................................................................................................12
No CFTA.......................................................................................................................................................................13
Yes CFTA......................................................................................................................................................................14
Yes fiscal discipline.......................................................................................................................................................15
No fiscal discipline........................................................................................................................................................16
No fiscal discipline........................................................................................................................................................17
IRRESPONSIBILITY INEVITABLE..........................................................................................................................18
A2: F-22 sales to Japan good........................................................................................................................................19
A2: F-22 sales to Japan good........................................................................................................................................20
Relations Key to Heg....................................................................................................................................................21
Relations Key to Econ...................................................................................................................................................22
Incentives industry development..............................................................................................................................23
MASS TRANSIT SPENDING LINKS.........................................................................................................................24
Reprocessing spending links.........................................................................................................................................25
A2: Cali econ................................................................................................................................................................26
Private research solves nuclear.....................................................................................................................................27
States CP solves GNEP.................................................................................................................................................28
A2: GNEP.....................................................................................................................................................................29
War  racism...............................................................................................................................................................30
Obama Wins..................................................................................................................................................................31
Obama Good – space....................................................................................................................................................34
McCain avoids Bush.....................................................................................................................................................35
McCain Wins.................................................................................................................................................................36
Polls Fail.......................................................................................................................................................................37

DDI 2008 2
KO Misc

2AC T card – incentives
Incentives are broad. They include:
positive and negative
direct and indirect
economic and non-economic
and can target either producers OR consumers
Any definition which excludes these eradicates the meaning of the term
Kirsten Probst, and Annette von Lossau, Gesellschaft f�r Technische Zusammenarbeit, “Agro-biodiversity
conservation incentives,” SUBJECT: Incentives for the sustainable use and conservation of agrobiodiversity,
October 21, 2003, http://www.nbu.ac.uk/biota/Archive_Genetic/4914.htm
Participants in a workshop on incentive measures on sustainable use and conservation of agrobiodiversity in
Lusaka, 2001, defined a framework for analysis of incentives and incentive measures which differentiates
between positive and negative incentives, direct and indirect incentives, economic and non-economic
incentives. Moreover, it was stated that three main stakeholder groups could be distinguished: farmers,
consumers, and support system actors (policy makers, extension, research, NGOs, seed producers and other
service providers). Each of them can both receive incentives and design and implement incentive measures
to motivate and stimulate others. The distinction made between economic and non-economic incentives
deserves attention because it goes to the heart of the meaning of the word incentive. The significant
positive influence of non-economic incentives should not be underestimated. They involve access to
information, capacity building and recognition and are relevant to all stakeholders, i.e. farmers, the service
delivery system, politicians and consumers. Seed and animal fairs with diversity competitions are an
illustration of an incentive measure that yields a range of different incentives. The prizes for those farmers
that display most diversity are a crucial incentive. Increased awareness of the existence, beauty and
importance of genetic diversity and the recognition for the custodians of that diversity probably contributes to
the success of such events.

DDI 2008 3
KO Misc

T – Incentives Aren’t to Government
1. We meet – Our incentive is not an individual motivating himself

2. We meet – Congress provides an incentive to NASA

3. Counter-interpretation – Governmental organizations can provide alternative
energy incentives to other governmental organizations:

Energy Trust of Oregon, 2008, “Energy Trust Nonprofit/Government Incentives”,
http://www.energytrust.org/solar/commercial/nonp_gov.php
As a nonprofit/government organization, you have two options for installing a solar electric system on your
property. The first option foregoes the federal tax incentives, but gives you long term ownership of the
system. The second option fully utilizes the tax incentives, but typically requires that you purchase the solar
electricity from a third party system owner instead of owning the system yourself. Your choice will depend
on your financial situation and your long term goals.

4. Our interpretation is best
A. Most predictable and real world – Energy Trust of Oregon shows this is how
government alternative energy incentives work RIGHT NOW
B. Limits – They overlimit and exclude all governmental organizations – we
would always lose to the states counterplan
C. Ground – Neg gains ground for agent counterplans and PICs out of
organizations such as NASA
D. Education – Allows in-depth research of all parts of the USFG

5. Reasonability good
A. No ground loss – they still can read whatever they want in the 1NC
6. T is not a voter – it’s a must-win for the aff, only in-round abuse justifies a ballot

nsf/politics/story/8CB9815E91BADA4986257 49200155225?OpenDocument [Takumi Murayama] President George W.com/stltoday/news/stories. Ray LaHood. Louis Dispatch.stltoday. Bush headlined a fundraiser for Republican Aaron Schock in his race for the House seat being vacated by longtime GOP Rep. On Friday. but he remains a strong draw in some areas and continues to go to such places to raise money for Republicans. .DDI 2008 4 KO Misc Political Capital High–Campaigning Bush still strong in some areas – campaigning proves St. “Campaign digest. 07/26/2008. Bush's popularity at the national level has fallen to record lows.” http://www.

07/18/2008. Bush was upbeat recently as he recalled his recent string of accomplishments. We can get good energy legislation done.” http://ap. He rattled off his list.mcclatchydc. Nothing's going to happen. plus the negotiating leverage that comes with the power to veto legislation. AP. “Analysis: Democrats exact price from Bush for war. Won his bid to renew the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. which are fueling the White House PR machine. "We can get good housing legislation done. lame-duck president still has sway on national security issues. Ended the executive ban on drilling off most U..com/257/story/44730. We can get trade bills done. which he once labeled part of an "axis of evil. Won congressional approval of $162 billion for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. though only after including new college aid for military veterans that he'd opposed. Tried to reassure the public. 'Aw man. "People say. Congress reporter. in his first news conference since April. "In the eighth year of the presidency and in this environment.DDI 2008 5 KO Misc Political Capital High–National Security Bush has political capital – national security proves Julie Hirschfeld Davis.html [Takumi Murayama] Bush's achievements.com/article/ALeqM5iYmwCGxlASIEZMxmb0CI5QYdR9- wD92A6FQ80 [Takumi Murayama] Bush showed that even an unpopular. which he's long opposed." off the list of terrorism sponsors and loosened trade sanctions after it agreed to provide details of its nuclear program.S. including the controversial provision that could allow immunity for telecommunications firms that participated in warrantless wiretaps. Bush Political Capital High – recent national security compromises prove David Lightman.google. flow from his recent tendency to compromise more on national security issues. Took North Korea. Bush said he wasn't endorsing timetables. In recent weeks Bush: Discussed with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki what the White House called "a general time horizon" for cutting the number of American troops in Iraq. “Is Bush going out with 'a whimper'?” http://www. 08/03/2008. his former top legislative aide. McClatchy Newspapers. that he understood their economic pain and was working to ease it." said Candi Wolff. "What can we get done?" he asked." .' " he said. And there's plenty of time to get action with the United States Congress. and looked ahead. Bush's veto was pretty strong. you're running out of time. coastlines.

Congress is run by Democrats reluctant to give Bush any domestic victories. “Is Bush going out with 'a whimper'?” http://www. His public approval is so poor.mcclatchydc. had similar thoughts. and his approval ratings have remained at or near a dismal 30 percent for about a year. low approval David Lightman. "All this is pretty much a lot of noise." Warber said. He's going out with a whimper. 07/18/2008. "It's very difficult for him now.DDI 2008 6 KO Misc Political Capital Low–Congress Reluctant Bush political capital low – Congress reluctant. The White House. professor of political science at Clemson University. the experts and the polls say.com/257/story/44730. is wrong. however.html [Takumi Murayama] WASHINGTON — The White House wants the American public to think it's on the rebound. . presidential scholar at Vanderbilt University and the author of "The Effective President." said Erwin Hargrove. President Bush hasn't begun a comeback. McClatchy Newspapers. scoring important triumphs in Iraq and North Korea and on domestic spying while taking tough stands on oil drilling and relief for homeowners." Adam Warber. he doesn't really have a lot of political capital.

Thus. the torture and murder of prisoners.dll/article?AID=/20080731/OPINION/807310309/ 1018 [Takumi Murayama] The press.” http://www. Lately. the press has served its crucial role in a democracy. 07/31/2008. It is no accident that President Bush's popularity is at a historic low and that his credibility is in tatters. Only this week a Justice Department report provided details of the political corruption of the Justice Department itself.rutlandherald. and electronic spying. “A blow to freedom. has nevertheless performed admirably in bringing to light the historic abuses of the Bush administration. we have learned about kidnappings and secret prisons. shining light on the actions of the government in order allow the people to hold their government accountable. . In reality. Defenders of the president would blame the press.DDI 2008 7 KO Misc Political Capital Low–Corruption Bush political capital at historic low because of corruption Rutland Herald.com/apps/pbcs. often with the help of confidential sources. It has been essential for the public to have access to these reports so it could make informed judgments about the conduct of the government. frequently criticized for its failings. Leahy and others have been shining a spotlight on the political corruption of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Passage is expected.com. founder of FiveThirtyEight. “Why McCain is still in it. “Is Bush going out with 'a whimper'?” http://www. nor will Bush find his path smooth elsewhere. and Afghanistan prove. Bush Political Capital Low – Economy. Congress is expected to consider help for faltering housing markets. The Republican brand is in tatters because of the Iraq war and the economic slowdown.DDI 2008 8 KO Misc Political Capital Low–Economy Bush political capital low – Iraq and economy prove Nate Silver.com/257/story/44730. http://www. Polls show that more than eight out of 10 Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. David Lightman. including a rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And Obama is on pace to raise more money than any presidential candidate in history. Analysts say that unless the president's approval rating jumps — unlikely as long as the economy wobbles and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars continue — his clout is likely to remain diminished. McClatchy Newspapers. 08/04/2008.0. saying the bill could become costly to taxpayers.latimes. a political website. Some conservative Republicans are wary.2423895. 07/18/2008.html [Takumi Murayama] Next week.story [Takumi Murayama] Barack Obama seems to enjoy some enormous advantages over John McCain in their pursuit of the White House. Iraq. but it won't come easily. .” LA Times.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-silver4- 2008aug04.mcclatchydc.

http://www. 08/04/2008.” The Guardian. However.DDI 2008 9 KO Misc Political Capital Low–Iran Failure to attack Iran proves lack of political capital Max Hastings. but bombing would be a catastrophe. The folly of American military posturing towards Iran is its absence of credibility.usa [Takumi Murayama] This is unspectacular.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/04/iran. no one doubts Bush's executive power to launch an air attack. former editor of the Daily Telegraph and the London Evening Standard. or sanction the Israelis to do so.guardian. but seems right. . That is to say. making matters worse rather than better.co. “Negotiating with Iran is maddening. it is evident to all but the neocons and some dangerous people in Jerusalem that such action must fail in its purposes.

Addressing Iraq's perceived nuclear ambitions.html [Takumi Murayama] Next week. 07/18/2008. And Obama is on pace to raise more money than any presidential candidate in history. if late.” Sydney Morning Herald.com. but at a substantial cost . “Why McCain is still in it.and one that is welcome. and Afghanistan prove.in lives.smh. time and political capital.0. dollars. http://www.DDI 2008 10 KO Misc Political Capital Low–Iraq/Afghanistan War Iraq has decimated Bush’s political capital AP. nor will Bush find his path smooth elsewhere.indianagazette. 08/04/2008.” LA Times. The most striking example of this anti-diplomacy model.com.” originally printed in Durango Herald. “This political earthquake will be The Big One. http://online.html [Takumi Murayama] While President George Bush hoped that winning the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 represented a fundamental realignment to his party. publisher of The Sun-Herald. saying the bill could become costly to taxpayers. but it won't come easily. of course. David Lightman. Congress is expected to consider help for faltering housing markets. Bush Political Capital low – Iraq and Katrina prove Bruce Wolpe.story [Takumi Murayama] Barack Obama seems to enjoy some enormous advantages over John McCain in their pursuit of the White House. founder of FiveThirtyEight. worked on Capitol Hill.au/news/us-election/this-political-earthquake-will-be-the-big- one/2008/07/05/1214951117109. 08/03/2008. 07/06/2008. For far too long. Bush political capital low – Iraq and economy prove Nate Silver.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=34368&It emid=126 [Takumi Murayama] Nevertheless. which has removed that country from the trio.mcclatchydc.com/257/story/44730. Bush Political Capital Low – Economy. is the war in Iraq. “Is Bush going out with 'a whimper'?” http://www. director of corporate affairs for Fairfax Media. . has been involved in several Democratic political campaigns. Passage is expected. Some conservative Republicans are wary. Iraq. more than five years later. the willingness to talk is a big change . a political website.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-silver4- 2008aug04.com/index. The Republican brand is in tatters because of the Iraq war and the economic slowdown. whatever designs he had were torn asunder by repeated failures of competence reflected in the blunder in Iraq. could have benefited from a less heavy-handed approach. Analysts say that unless the president's approval rating jumps — unlikely as long as the economy wobbles and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars continue — his clout is likely to remain diminished. the Bush administration has left diplomacy on the shelf when dealing with what it defined as "Axis of Evil" countries: Iran. Iraq and North Korea. “Editorial Roundup. http://www. Polls show that more than eight out of 10 Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. including a rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.2423895.latimes. McClatchy Newspapers. it seems now. That is a hard-learned lesson that will continue to burden the United States and Iraq for years to come. the utter squandering of the President's political capital after his 2004 re-election and paralysis in response to Hurricane Katrina.

. The administration that has spared no effort to frighten Americans about the threat of another terrorist attack rejected a highly qualified counterterrorism candidate for no better reason than his wife is a Democrat. “Justice corrupted.html [Takumi Murayama] Think about that. It was better to risk another catastrophic attack and the loss of untold numbers of lives than to promote Hochul. How Bush salvages his reputation after that revelation is beyond understanding.” http://www.buffalonews. 08/03/2008.com/149/story/405958.DDI 2008 11 KO Misc Political Capital Low–Partisan Politics Salvaging Bush’s political capital is almost impossible Buffalo News.

http://www.aspx?id=2610 Not only US Republican lawmakers have been calling for a vote on the proposed free trade agreement with Colombia—and those with Panama and Korea.and submitted to Congress for approval in April . it is still unclear if the Colombia FTA will be approved this year. http://www. vehemently called on Democrat lawmakers to vote and approve these three proposed free trade agreements. President Bush. No indications of congress voting on CFTA Latin Business Chronicle. 7-28-08.the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate .com/app/article.latinbusinesschronicle.or more than three months ago.opposes the Colombia FTA.latinbusinesschronicle. But the opportunity will only be open during the very short lame duck Congress session.com/app/article. some experts predict. It does not appear that local US politics will allow the vote on the US-Colombia free trade agreement until after the November elections. If there is no vote on the US-Colombia FTA during this current session of Congress. the proposed FTA might return to its embryonic stage. which was signed more than two years ago . the US-Colombia FTA may have a chance. However. Senator Barack Obama . Latin Business Chronicle. 8-4-08.in February 2006 .DDI 2008 12 KO Misc CFTA – U overwhelms No risk of CFTA passing until after the elections Enrique Gomez Pinzon. when commemorating Colombia's independence. Does that mean it would be 'dead'? I do not think so. There are no indications that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will allow a vote on the agreement. Partner at Holland & Knight LLP. Once US political leaders can return to taking care of business as usual. . but may be forced to support some congressional passage if he becomes president. if that were to happen.aspx?id=2618 However. probably the new administration will want to review the text and maybe renegotiate or add to the current proposed FTA.

Won't pass. 31. If the FTA were to come up at a future date. 7-28-08. individuals kidnapped. Director of AMLA Counsulting LLC. The free trade agreement would allow Colombia to lock in this progress by continuing to grow and through growth create jobs and better economic conditions for its citizens. and it unfortunately seems very likely that Speaker Pelosi would rather prevent this vote from taking place than engaging in a discussion over short-term quick fixes versus long-term economic and political gains for both the US and Colombia. as the intellectual authors of most crimes have gone unpunished. Over the past six years. recent labor law reforms passed by the Colombian Congress create as many problems as they resolve. Importantly. the labor rights situation in Colombia.voanews. so long as the labor and other human riguhts concerns remain. Latin Business Chronicle. Colombia is one of the US' best trading partners. NewsVOA. It is unlikely that the lack of a vote this year means the death of the FTA.com/english/2008-07-22- voa63. The business community has agreed to higher taxation rates to be able to finance the war against terrorism without disturbing macroeconomic balances. shows no signs of improvement.human rights Paula Wolfson. http://www. http://www. Latin Business Chronicle. Indeed. 7-22-08. the signal to the region will clearly be to seek other allies that would better understand the beneficial impact of trade for democratic growth. and drug distribution on schedule. a decisive factor for most Democrats. Pelosi will prevent the vote from taking place Beatrice Rangel. and the free trade agreement will certainly increase US exports to Colombia. Colombia has made every possible effort to reduce violence. the Colombian government executed a rescue operation that liberated not only the French-Colombian celebrity Ingrid Betancourt but also three US citizens. Washington.com/app/article. http://www. . Certainly.latinbusinesschronicle.cfm Democratic Party leaders in the House have put off formal consideration of the free trade agreement because of concerns about the Colombian government's human rights record. and the labor market remains very weak.com/app/article. Colombia has further stood up bravely to the FARC's extortionist practices.aspx?id=2610 It is extremely unlikely that the Congress will vote on the Colombia FTA during the current session.too many factors Jeff Vogt. the Bush administration has largely failed to address the urgent concerns noted by Speaker Pelosi with regard to shoring up the US economy.latinbusinesschronicle. Also.DDI 2008 13 KO Misc No CFTA Won't pass. Global Economic Policy Specialist at AFL-CIO. Measures to combat impunity have been insufficient. drug trade. But anything is possible during an election year in the US. Should the US Congress refuse to take a vote on this very important agreement for Latin America's democratic development. 7-28-08.aspx?id=2610 I fail to understand how the US Congress is going to explain to the world in general and Latin America in particular that it stands for democracy in the Hemisphere while shunning the US-Colombia free trade agreement. opposition will continue. and human rights violations. is significantly higher than the number murdered the same time last year. there would be pressure to address additional concerns of citizens both in the United States and Colombia. First. More recently. which have kept villages under siege. 22. the number of trade unionists murdered so far this year. These jobs are also essential to secure the peaceful integration of FARC members into society.

stability.with the strong bipartisan support of Congress .DDI 2008 14 KO Misc Yes CFTA Will pass.co. and security of the Hemisphere. Our Free Trade Agreements. and thank the Committee for its focus on and support of these vital issues.htm The Bush Administration . We will continue our vigorous engagement in this Hemisphere. Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Economic. energy and foreign policy interests.nz/stories/WO0808/S00038.has made deepening economic engagement in the Hemisphere a top foreign policy priority. Congressional approval of the Colombia FTA would further advance these efforts and contribute significantly to ensuring the future prosperity. are helping to lay a regional economic foundation that will advance our mutual economic. Scoop Independent News. Sullivan.scoop. .bipart support Daniel S. and Business Affairs Statement Before the Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. http://www. 8-4-08. Energy. and our broader economic dialogue with major emerging economies like Brazil. our Millennium Challenge Corporation compacts. our aviation liberalization agreements.

bruneinews. . that victory is in the face of a budget deficit forecasted to exceed $482 billion in the coming fiscal year.patriotpost. Unfortunately. Thankfully. the appeal to reduce spending on duplicate and unproven programs weighed more greatly on their collective conscience than the desire for perceived easy re-election back home.net/story/387487 White House spokeswoman Dana Perino says President Bush is determined to enforce greater fiscal discipline while pursuing a pro-growth economic strategy. Perino added that defense and security costs since the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States have placed enormous financial burdens on the country. When we reported two weeks ago on Reid’s sly attempt to revive earlier earmarks that Coburn single-handedly sunk. 8-1-08 http://archive. but that those expenditures are vital and appropriate. Score a small victory for sensible government spending.DDI 2008 15 KO Misc Yes fiscal discipline Republicans holding the line for fiscal discipline now PATROIT POST. The 52-40 vote to consider the $10-billion collection of 35 previously stymied spending bills fell eight votes short of the 60 required. Fiscal discipline now—security costs don't count BRUNEI NEWS 7-28-08 http://www. Tom Coburn (R-OK) and his fellow Republicans banded together to prevent Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-NV) omnibus earmark package from reaching a vote this week.php Sen. we were skeptical that the GOP would stick together in the face of earmark spending that curries favor with constituents.us/pub/08-31_Digest/page-2.

6 trillion.” she said. because it never was.615 trillion. And there’s plenty more deficit spending on the way.citizen-times. a surplus projected to top $5 trillion by 2010.com/blogs/2008/07/30/couricandco/entry4309239. No fiscal discipline now—Bush is spending like a madman CBS News 7-30-08 http://www. The latest evidence of that came this week. When he held sway over Congress.DDI 2008 16 KO Misc No fiscal discipline No fiscal discipline now—trillions of new spending Citizen Times 7-31-08 http://www.shtml It’s an issue President Bush never talks about – understandable for a politician who regards himself as a defender of fiscal discipline. “Nor does he make apologies for the economic stimulus package.” But there’s plenty of spending in the national debt that has nothing to do with the war on terrorism or the $168 billion economy stimulus package enacted in February. but it never seemed serious.dll/article?AID=200880730043 The president owns this legacy. running huge annual deficits. the national debt was $5.cbsnews.com/apps/pbcs.citizen-times. the lack of any sense of fiscal discipline may be the longest-lasting. Bush. When the president took office. White House press secretary Dana Perino defended some of the deficit spending. The ceiling was recently raised to $10. when the federal budget deficit projection for 2009 checked in at nearly $490 billion. No fiscal discipline—hundreds of billions spent Citizen Times 7-31-08 http://www. Asked this morning if President Bush were self-conscious or even embarrassed about signing another increase in the debt limit. But the president took that sunny outlook and turned the nation’s fiscal picture completely around.com/apps/pbcs. There was talk of fiscal restraint from the administration. . such as vows to cut in half the deficit it created. he went six years without vetoing a bill on any kind. let alone a spending bill. Bush inherited a budget running a surplus in 2001.dll/article?AID=200880730043 Of the many dubious legacies of President George W. “The President makes no apologies for the money he spends to protect this country from terrorists who want to attack us.

com/articles/2008/07/30/editorial/doc488e36c273df8602871660." said the Democrat who chairs the Senate Budget Committee. dramatic reductions in spending may have to wait. high energy costs and the slowing economy would seem to preclude the kind of fiscal discipline that’s possible with a booming. "If we gave Olympic medals for fiscal irresponsibility. then adding even more on top of those. argues that large deficits are an indicator of the irresponsible ways of Congress and the president. Kent Conrad. manageable deficits and attention to long-term entitlement program costs. ***Bush wins the Olympic gold for fiscal irresponsibility*** THE SUN 7-29-08 http://www. the deficit spending continues unabated.S. "this in a nutshell is the Bush Administration's legacy: Mr.000 in debt thanks to runaway spending.nysun.html So a-borrowin' we go.aarp. 7-29-08 http://www. Bush entered office with the biggest surpluses in history and leaves with the biggest deficits.DDI 2008 17 KO Misc No fiscal discipline War and energy costs preclude fiscal discipline Daily News. "This administration will now leave office with the worst record of fiscal responsibility in the history of the country.org/yourmoney/personalfinance/articles/editorial_promises_vs_obligations.tdn. then promising to add even more if re-elected this fall? The national debt is approaching $10 trillion. That figure is currently $9. Bixby. the silver. "It underscores how little we've done to maintain fiscal discipline over the last several years. President Bush would take the gold. The annual deficit is the amount we come up short each year. 7-30-08 http://bulletin. because he's got the three highest record deficits ever. Concord's executive director.5 trillion.org/dsp_article. But we won't get an apology any time soon because then they'd have to stop spending.'' he said." PAY GO BROKEN NOW American Spectator. said. Each newborn American baby enters the world a little more than $30.spectator. . 7-31-08 http://www. government is not required to balance its books." The Democrat who chairs the House Budget Committee.com/editorials/a-democratic-deficit/82808/ No sooner were the latest budget projections by the Office of Management and Budget released yesterday than Democrats were whipping themselves into a frenzy of outrage at President Bush.asp?art_id=13624 Couldn't the House give us an apology for creating more entitlement programs than the people can possibly fund. And despite the House's paygo rule requiring any new spending to be paid for. The Concord Coalition is a Washington-area advocacy group that focuses on fiscal responsibility — balanced budgets.txt Granted. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. No fiscal discipline under Congress and Bush AARP Bulletin. the federal debt is the aggregate total of unpaid deficits. Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress are directly responsible for this. and the bronze. John Spratt. Unlike the state of Minnesota. peacetime economy. the U.

then I nominate Dennis "Umbrella Stand" Kozlowski for Treasury secretary. Further. but it’s important to recognize that our next commander in chief isn’t going to enter office with a clean slate. 7-14-08 http://online.dll/article?AID=200880730043 The bad news is the deficit may get worse.com/apps/pbcs. if not decades. the next president. To paraphrase John Houseman. Because of all this." According to the Tax Policy Center. Fiscal discipline? It's as much a quaint abstraction on Pennsylvania Avenue as it is on Wall Street.by living beyond its means. The projection doesn’t include the costs of wars and papers over borrowing from Social Security surplus funds.3 trillion to the national debt while McCain's would add $4. We certainly can’t go down that road at the speed with which our current president has recklessly driven. which could translate to lower tax revenues and increased spending on things like unemployment benefits and food stamps. will enter office handcuffed. So does McCain.citizen-times. It’s a glum picture. It also means both candidates’ economic proposals aren’t very realistic. assuming that all of their optimistic revenue offsets expire.com/article/SB121581648363147369. but instead with a massive cleanup job ahead.3 trillion. This president’s shadow will be cast over the nation’s fiscal outlook for years. DDI 2008 18 KO Misc IRRESPONSIBILITY INEVITABLE Inevitable—either Barack or McCain would break fiscal discipline Barrons. the great actor who nevertheless will remain best remembered as the spokesman for Smith Barney: "Congress loses money the old fashioned way -. Obama's plan would add $3.html?mod=googlenews_barrons Barack Obama promises fiscal discipline.barrons. the deficit could balloon due to the slumping economy. a joint project of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution. We can’t go down that road forever. If this is fiscal discipline. No fiscal discipline for decades Citizen Times 7-31-08 http://www. Both are proposing tax cuts without specifying spending cuts. whether McCain or Obama. .

S. Ensuring the security of F-22 technology in those countries would be more difficult. even with stringent export controls. One the most recent--and infamous--examples of an illegal technology transfer is the Lavi fighter program. and even Saudi Arabia. Beset by rising costs. it's difficult to persuade lawmakers to purchase additional Raptors. 4/23/07 (http://formerspook. Raptor purchase may be limited to only 179 jets. well below what the service wants. Raptor sales to Japan would also keep the Lockheed assembly line open past the projected shut-down date. the U. the program proved too expensive and was ultimately scrapped. and it provides a foundation for more sophisticated aircraft in the future.S. With the Army and Marine Corps trying to overcome a decade of under-funding. By comparison. avionics. based on the U. at the expense of basing along the Taiwan Strait. So what happened to the Lavi? Many of the Israeli experts--and the technology--made their way to China. even long-time allies like Israel and Japan.html) Last week.-Israeli venture that began in the 1980s. intelligence community. convincing Congress to buy more F-22s will be a tough sell. Japan's acquisition of the Raptor—even for defensive purposes--would force China to realign its advanced fighter force to meet that challenge. air-to-air missiles. As Bill Gertz reported in the Washington Times last Friday. On the other hand. reflecting internal security issues. the possibility of foreign F-22 sales may still exist.com/2007/04/raptors-for-japan. the F-22 is truly state-of-the-art. Despite those concerns. Keeping the production line open would give the Air Force (and its supporters) a chance to lobby Congress for a bigger "domestic" buy. Pro-China elements at the White House and the Pentagon oppose the deal.DDI 2008 19 KO Misc A2: F-22 sales to Japan good F-22 sales will cause Chinese arms races.S. The Air Force also hopes that foreign interest might spur our own government to buy more F-22s. with Raptor squadrons in Alaska and Okinawa. we noted the Air Force's long-standing opposition to potential exports of the F-22 stealth fighter. which would (obviously) upset Beijing. it made little sense to share our most advanced technology with any foreign customer. but it's easily the best fighter the Chinese have built on their own (more or less). First. The technology will leak to them through Israel Smiley. Japan would like to purchase up to 100 Raptors. Secondly. including South Korea. and that has ignited a debate within the administration. where they formed the foundation of the F-10 fighter program. American taxpayers provided much of the funding for the Lavi. Former member of the U. is planning only limited F-22 deployments in the Far East. . The Lavi program was aimed at developing an advanced. a joint U. multi-role fourth- generation fighter. the F-10 isn't a world-beater.blogspot. But there is a risk in that strategy. Israel. officials concerned about China's growing military power support the proposed export deal. approval of exports to Japan will bring demands for sales to other U.S. As we noted recently. while the Israelis supplied the bulk of the technical expertise. active- radar. the U. From the service's perspective. noting that the Japan sale could cause a shift in the region's balance of power. allies. For the near term. despite its technological supremacy. with an advanced air intercept radar. and the Air Force is (rightfully) concerned about the possible compromise of that technology through export sales. and Russian-made.S. or (in the case of Israel) a willingness to share it with other countries. which means more jobs and revenue in states like Texas and Georgia. at almost $300 million a copy. The F- 10 is virtually a clone of the Lavi.S. Past experience shows that advanced technology has a habit of winding up in the wrong hands. Unfortunately. F-16.

html) Even though the likelihood of China’s initiating a war in the Pacific region remains small. technological peer competitor to the United States and other Pacific nations. and Japan have achieved quasi-or virtual nuclear armament. but the United States must work with its global allies to limit the development of China’s offensive air capabilities. p. Nuclear war Toshimaru Ogura and Ingyu Oh. The ability of China to project military power throughout the Pacific jeopardizes American influence in the region. Given the concentration of economic affluence and military power in this region and its growing importance to the world system.airpower. Even with China’s promise of a peaceful rise. The United States has maintained military dominance in the Pacific since the end of World War II. April. offensive development of the PLAAF still poses a threat to regional stability.38 China might respond by increasing its own military capabilities.DDI 2008 20 KO Misc A2: F-22 sales to Japan good Chinese air power expansion causes war throughout Asia Air and Space Power Journal.maxwell.39 It might also use airpower to project power to Central Asian states.nuclear annihilation. Adm Dennis C. Chinese militarization may lead neighboring states such as Japan and Korea.af. former commander of US Pacific Command. Professors of Economics and Political Economy at Waiikato University. virtual armament creates a new nightmare in this region. both of which wish to gain influence in the geostrategically important region. any hot conflict among those countries would threaten to escalate into global conflagration.”42 The Chinese have an inherent right to defend their sovereignty. MONTHLY REVIEW. to develop more aggressive military postures. Although these countries do not produce or possess actual bombs. which recently expressed concern over the lack of transparency in China’s military buildup. Thus. declared.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj07/fal07/greenberg. South Korea. 30 North Korea. Fall 2007 (http://www. Yet we must make them understand that the ocean and sky [are] ours. Blair. such as Kazakhstan. .40 Any form of PLAAF involvement in these nations could produce tension with the United States and Russia. but recent Chinese military development has the potential to shift the balance of power there. the United States must limit the PLAAF’s ability to wage offensive air operations. that supply China’s burgeoning energy demand. its acquisition of platforms such as the J-10 and Su-27 fighters may lead the PLAAF to become a regional. “We respect the authority of the People’s Liberation Army in their mainland. they possess sufficient technological know-how to possess one or several nuclear arsenals. 1997.41 To maintain the current balance of power in the Pacific. resulting in a spiral process that could lead to intense diplomatic or military confrontations.

depending on whether leaders in the Kremlin are cooperative or hostile to the United States. it has enough power and potential power to be either a spoiler or a contributing partner as America pursues its national security interests. He is also a professor of political science at Stanford University and a non-resident associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and James M. if controlled by leaders with genuinely imperial or anti-American intentions. an endowment which could also either serve or impede American strategic interests. Yet. Russia’s nuclear arsenal could again become a tool of blackmail against the United States and its allies. What to do about Russia. 2005. It is hard to imagine how Russian leaders could ever use this kind of power in either a positive or a threatening way. Goldgeier. relations that could be either useful or threatening to American security interests. Policy Review. Moreover. undermining US hegemony Michael McFaul Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.org/publications/policyreview/2921316. http://www. Russia is the world’s largest producer and exporter of hydrocarbons.hoover. Armed still with thousands of nuclear weapons and intercontinental delivery vehicles. .html At the same time. Russia inherited and maintains military and economic ties with Iran. Syria. and China. For instance. Russia remains the only country in the world still capable of annihilating the American homeland.DDI 2008 21 KO Misc Relations Key to Heg Collapse of US-Russian relations spurs counterbalancing and blackmail. North Korea.

the United States and Russia will establish a formal economic dialogue to discuss issues of mutual interest. This is the “non-oil economy. Gaddy. Russia earns that much in crude exports in less than a week. because more businesses and more jobs depend on the flow from oil and gas. crude oil export revenues totaled barely $2 billion. "Given the increased investment and trade between our two countries. 1999 — the price of Urals oil was less than $9. US. wholesale. yes. and Technology. By October. The Russian economy rests on two pillars: oil and gas.S. had total lendable funds of less than $250 billion. there is — more and more each year. Russia’s non-oil sectors are growing as a share of the total economy. the Russian government continues to add cash to the foreign exchange reserves and stabilization fund at a rate of $170 billion a year.com/france24Public/en/news/business/20080201-us-Russia-talks-on-economic-ties-import- nuclear-fuel." the Commerce Department said. Oil becomes more important. http://www." it said in a statement. Today. construction. In a sign of their deepening ties. The explanation for the reversal of fortune is hardly a secret. In exactly the eight years of Putin’s tenure. The deal "will provide US utilities with a reliable supply of nuclear fuel by allowing Russia to export.-Russia Economic Relationship. The joint statement said the dialogue reflected new economic trends. Look at the difference. 7. The Two Pillars 9. In 1998 Russia was a country so impoverished and whose meager finances had been so mismanaged that it was essentially bankrupt.france24. as holder of one of largest current account surpluses in world. is business activity in retail. The visual image is a platform resting on the pillars I mentioned. Almost every drop of the increased output has been shipped abroad to the world market.DDI 2008 22 KO Misc Relations Key to Econ Relations key to the US and world economy AFP.6 billion. People say: “But there’s more there than just oil. 10. which include US plans to import Russian nuclear fuel. Here we have witnessed one of the most dramatic reversals of fate in recent economic — and geopolitical — history.S. So. Is oil then becoming less important for Russia? No. real estate.brookings. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy. the price is $87.) Right now. the country’s foreign reserves were down to under $8 billion and falling. Fast forward now to this past summer. 8. Russia to hold formal economic talks. current account deficit. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and Russian Federal Atomic Energy Agency Director Sergey Kiriyenko will "sign a long-term suspension agreement governing trade in nuclear fuel. Consider the income from one component alone — crude oil exports. The pillars support more. Russia’s foreign reserves were well over $400 billion. It is just the opposite. Relations are key to the world economy Clifford G. consumer goods. Issues in the U. 11.php The United States and Russia announced Thursday they will launch formal talks this year to discuss growing trade and investment links. the US Commerce Department announced separately that the United States will import Russian nuclear fuel under a deal to be signed at Dulles International Airport near here on Friday. The most dramatic change has been in the area of state finances. it is one of the biggest financers of the U. In addition. 6. 2-1-08.aspx 5. (The IMF. When Vladimir Putin assumed the post of prime minister in August 1999. . Russia was thoroughly bankrupt and practically in receivership. It was so depleted of foreign reserves that denial of a bail-out to the tune of $15 billion or so could bring down a government. On Friday. and Russia produces nearly 10 million barrels a day. Russia was producing barely 6 million barrels a day. Roughly eight and a half years ago — on February 11.edu/testimony/2007/1017russia. Meanwhile.” Indeed. and Russia’s growing importance in the world economy. Foreign Policy. Right now. Trade." it added. The increase in wealth flowing into Russia from oil and gas is staggering. Washington will host the first meeting in the spring and delegates from both the public and private sector will participate in the new dialogue. they were at $6. Piled on that platform. Indeed. Russia has thus come a long way since the days when it was desperately dependent on the financial largess of the West. it had another $130 billion in its so-called oil stabilization fund. Senior Fellow.6 billion. according to a joint statement released by the State Department. Russia’s debt to the International Monetary Fund was $16. higher and higher.00. Global Economy and Development. 10-17-07. In the first three months of 1999.” 12. in the meantime. while minimizing any disruption to the United States' domestic enrichment industry. Brookings Institute. http://www. the value of those commodities has soared. In August 2007.00 a barrel.

These include grants for building. plant.DDI 2008 23 KO Misc Incentives industry development Incentives cause development of industry—prefer our interpretation. removal grants to new locations. and contract preference schemes . Government incentives Measures taken by a government to attract the development of industry in specified areas. assistance in encouraging sound industrial projects.com/topic/government- incentives?cat=technology. taxation allowances against investments.answers. Susan Mahew. and machinery. free rent of a government-owned factory for up to five years. loans. http://www. 2004. works. it's in the context of government incentives A Dicitionary of Geography.

.DDI 2008 24 KO Misc MASS TRANSIT SPENDING LINKS There's 88000 local governments in the US as of 2002 US census 02 http://www.000 more each than a conventional articulated diesel bus. One hybrid bus costs 200 thousand dollars Jane Hadley. In fact. 12-13-04. Hybrid buses’ fuel economy promises don’t materialize. the New Flyer hybrid articulated buses have gotten worse mileage than the often-maligned 1989 dual-mode Breda buses they are replacing.census. at times. http://seattlepi.html The number of the nation's local governments totaled 87.com/transportation/203509_metro13.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/governments/000410. Seattle Post-Intelligencer. according to the first information from the 2002 Census of Governments [PDF 1MB] released today by the Commerce Department's Census Bureau.525 in 2002 and nearly one-third of them provided information and services online.nwsource.html Expensive new hybrid diesel-electric buses that were portrayed by King County Metro as "green" heroes that would use up to 40 percent less fuel than existing buses have fallen far short of that promise. Yet the hybrid buses cost $200.

5 billion per year for the current U. The American public would end up having to pay this charge.com/opinion/ci_10089395 With the state of California facing a $15 billion budget shortfall. . Non-unique—California is one month and 15 billion dollars overdue Sacramento Bee. Democrats and Republicans are a month overdue in getting a new spending plan in place. UCS Senior Staff Scientis. The Energy Department recently released an industry estimate that a reprocessing plant with an annual capacity of 2.000 tons of nuclear waste have already been produced. An Argonne National Laboratory scientist recently estimated that the cost premium for reprocessing spent fuel would range from 0. Edwin Lyman.S. 8-3-08 http://www. and existing reactors add some 2. In the United States. http://www.S.6 cents per kilowatt-hour—corresponding to an extra $3 to $4. would need two of these to reprocess all its spent fuel. Arnold Schwarzenegger is about to order a temporary pay cut for 200.000 metric tons of spent fuel would cost up to $20 billion to build—and the U. Gov. some 55.4 to 0. 5-08.000 metric tons of spent fuel annually. nuclear reactor fleet.org/global_security/nuclear_terrorism/extracting-plutonium-from-nuclear-reactor- spent-fuel. either through increased taxes or higher electricity bills.000 state employees and wants to furlough thousands of others to preserve cash so the government can continue operating through September.ucsusa.html Reprocessing and the use of plutonium as reactor fuel are also far more expensive than using uranium fuel and disposing of the spent fuel directly.DDI 2008 25 KO Misc Reprocessing spending links Nuclear reprocessing costs 40 billion dollars Dr.insidebayarea.

California's economy is resilient Comerica Bank.DDI 2008 26 KO Misc A2: Cali econ Construction's key to California—plan doesn’t affect that ACP Publications 6-25-08 http://www. 6 "California brief" http://www. .321. Nationally. chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America (AGC). That part of the state economy is in a steep slide that is considerably more severe than what is going on nationally.com/Comerica_Content/Corporate_Communications/Docs/CaliforniaEcon omicBrief_2006_04.com/blog/1110000511/post/1130028913.143.comerica. 5-percent of the state’s non-farm employment of 15. construction accounted for 5-percent of non-farm employment but fell 5.1-percent over the year as homebuilding shrank.acppubs. Annual pay in 2006 in construction averaged $48. 5-percent more than the national private sector average of $42. just sent out the following interesting fact sheet about the importance of the construction industry to our State’s economy: The industry employed 815.8 trillion in 2007. job growth overall accelerated in California over the past several months. But remarkably. Despite the considerable drag from the housing sector.pdf Surprisingly Resilient California is still in the midst of a painful consolidation of its homebuilding sector.414.8- percent from one year before. construction pay averaged $44.000 workers in May 2008. the state has a good shot at outperforming the national economy again in 2006.496.html Kenneth Simonson.809. 1-percent more than the private sector average of $47.000 and a decrease of 9. Nationally. Construction contributed $70 billion to state GDP of $1.

6 http://www.heritage. The government's role should be to ensure safety and allow the industry-- just like any other--to compete and flourish in open markets. federal officials have begun routinely approving requests to run existing nuclear plants harder and longer than ever. ..DDI 2008 27 KO Misc Private research solves nuclear Private research solves California Public Interest Research Group. and a favorable political climate. the nuclear industry is working to achieve a “nuclear renaissance.” After 30 years without a single new order for a nuclear power plant in the U.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/bg2086.cfm Private investors have a key role to play in reestablishing America's nuclear industry. Private sector is key to nuclear development Jack Spencer. private investors provide the capital and take the risks necessary to develop the nuclear industry. Meanwhile. In general. several companies are now in the early stages of proposing new nuclear power plants. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies 7 http://www.calpirg.S. The industry is no longer owned or supported by the government. although the Energy Policy Act of 2005 does provide some incentives to utilities.org/home/reports/report-archives/healthy- communities/healthy-communities/challenging-nuclear-power-in-the-states-policy-and-organizing-tools-for- slowing-the-nuclear-renaissance Capitalizing on rising energy prices. growing concern about global warming. Research Fellow in Nuclear Energy in the Thomas A.

. 4. calls for a significant increase in funding for two controversial administration nuclear efforts: the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) and a new mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel facility at Savannah River. a monthly journal of authoritative information and analysis published by the Arms Control Association. their author.DDI 2008 28 KO Misc States CP solves GNEP Federal action for GNEP isn't a reason the counterplan is bad—Bush will expand GNEP in the status quo Miles Pomper. Bush’s fiscal 2009 budget request. The administration made the request despite the fact that Congress significantly cut funds for both programs last year and key lawmakers continue to express skepticism about the initiatives. unveiled Feb. 2008 President George W. editor of Arms Control Today. South Carolina.

org/web-edition/reports/the-future-of-gnep/the- future-of-gnep-the-international-partners GNEP partners plan to invite an additional 25 countries. including several from the Persian Gulf. to join the partnership this fall. While the Energy Department has touted the growth of GNEP membership. "No funds are provided for any continued work on GNEP. and it's unclear whether this language will be retained in the event of a continuing resolution.DDI 2008 29 KO Misc A2: GNEP GNEP is NON-BINDING—means their cards about US led safety regulations are BULLSHIT Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.thebulletin. No similar provisions were contained in the Senate bill. a requirement if." It instructed Energy to continue to coordinate GNEP's research and development arm with countries that already have advanced fuel-cycle capabilities (Britain. Partners merely agree to support the expansion of nuclear energy and to close the fuel cycle by signing the GNEP Statement of Principles PDF. member countries aren't asked to make legally binding commitments or commit any funding.thebulletin. . but not to work with countries aspiring to have nuclear capabilities. including the department's efforts to solicit developing partner countries in the GNEP program.org/web-edition/reports/the-future-of-gnep/the- future-of-gnep-the-international-partners With regard to GNEP's international aspects. as appears likely. France. Congress doesn't finalize the 2009 Energy and Water Appropriations bill. Current GNEP policies mandate the US not to work with countries developing nuclear power—only with already advanced fuel-cycle countries Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. 7-31-08 http://www. 7-31-08 http://www. and Japan). the 2009 House Committee report specified.

. stop it from causing massive racism. Means we gain access to their in- round discourse.DDI 2008 30 KO Misc War  racism WAR AND ECONOMIC DECLINE PERPETUATE RACISM We're trying to STOP the plan.

The economy was by far the top issue. 8-1-08. an economics professor at Yale university who built the earliest of the models in 1978. in this poll anyway." said Ray Fair. "It is a decent margin but it is not a landslide.72.2 percent in the final three months of last year.6 per cent "The key thing here. CTV news staff.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November.reuters. is that Obama is doing better among fellow Democrats than McCain is with fellow Republicans. Reuters.5 percent and a 3 percent rate of inflation. Obama leads McCain in new election poll A new poll suggests Barack Obama has a seven-point lead over John McCain in the race to the White House. But previous data was revised lower to show output contracted 0.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idINN0138628820080801?sp=true Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U. the weakest performance since 2001. Economic models predict clear Obama win in November.3 per cent • Nader: 3.9 percent annualized pace.3 per cent • Other: 2. based on current gloomy economic estimates." said Fair. thereby extending Obama's lead even further. "It would have been much larger if there had been a recession in 2008. which assumed tepid U. economic activity doubled in the second quarter to a 1.the Iraq war -.S. when the same question was repeated with the names of Nader and Barr added. predicted the Republican candidate John McCain's share of the vote would be 47." pollster John Zogby told CTV's Canada AM on Wednesday. 4.1 per cent • Undecided: 9. http://in. Alister Bull.3 per cent • Barr: 3. The Zogby poll.would reinforce that election outcome. who ran the numbers in April.2 percent. • Obama: 46. was on the "wrong track. McCain and "someone else. Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on Nov. When respondents were asked who they would vote for if only given the choice between Obama.4 per cent • Other: 1." U. only 12 per cent of respondents felt that McCain's main campaign issue -.DDI 2008 31 KO Misc Obama Wins If bad economic conditions continue. also suggests independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr would draw votes away from McCain. handing Obama 52.S. More than two thirds of voters -. released Wednesday.many analysts think things will get worse between now and November -. with 47." most said they would support the Democratic candidate: • Obama: 47 per cent • McCain: 40.said the U.would be a deciding factor in who to vote for.9 per cent • Undecided: 9.9 per cent -. "The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the Republicans." Also. economic growth of 1. His model. and expanded only slightly at the start of 2008. McCain lost support. The poll also suggests McCain faces an uphill battle in the election because of voter dissatisfaction with the current Republican government. . Any further darkening in the economic outlook -. Obama wins. 7-16-08.3 per cent • McCain: 36. but nearly 10 per cent of voters have yet to make up their minds.8 per cent However.8 percent.1 per cent saying it would determine who got their support.S. Obama is winning because voters are unhappy with the current administration. The economy is a bigger voting issue than the Iraq war.

but on paper 2008 just doesn't look like his year. When Big Government liberalism is all the rage. But McCain is still a compelling figure. He has changed or shaded his positions on offshore drilling. it might be time to ask the question the horse-race-loving media are never supposed to ask: Is McCain a no- shot? Last week.DDI 2008 32 KO Misc McCain is a long shot because of lack of support for Bush and Republicans. and being white has never hurt a presidential candidate.time. He can't seem to decide whether to run as a maverick and risk demoralizing a GOP base that already mistrusts him or run as a conservative and risk alienating swing voters who already miss the John McCain of 2000. And on the economy.00. a severe blow to McCain's efforts to portray Obama's willingness to engage in dialogue as appeasement. He's a Republican in what is emerging as a Democratic year. Emory University's Alan Abramowitz has concocted a formula that has predicted the popular vote winner in 14 of the last 15 elections. 7-22-08. His initial reaction to the foreclosure crisis boiled down to old-fashioned conservative self-reliance. And he's aligned with Bush in a year of Bush fatigue over the Bush economy. a TIME/Rockefeller Foundation poll found that 82% of the country supports more federal infrastructure spending designed to create jobs. if not a precise "timetable. and was eventually replaced with a more aggressive plan for government assistance. He's got a heroic personal story. and shake-ups happen. His real problem is the political environment. ethanol. just as Obama has recommended. which went over like a lead balloon. naive when it comes to Iran and a Big Government liberal when it comes to the economy. McCain's courage in opposing water projects or the farm bill becomes less of a selling point.1825337.html?imw=Y Oh. And his campaign — which survived a near-death experience in the primaries — is in seemingly perpetual turmoil. forcing McCain to argue that al-Maliki didn't really mean it.8599. "History suggests that McCain is toast. it missed in 1968 but got the razor-thin margin right." The Bush Administration has also engaged in some diplomatic outreach with Iran. But…. and even the Bush Administration has accepted a "time horizon" for withdrawal. His barometer uses three criteria: the approval rating of the incumbent President. . the McCain campaign's case against Barack Obama went something like this: He's irresponsible when it comes to Iraq. the estate tax." Clive Crook wrote in the Financial Times. Never Underestimate McCain. immigration and a host of other issues.com/time/politics/article/0. let's just admit it: John McCain is a long shot. http://www. the economic growth rate and the "time-for-a-change" factor of whether the incumbent's party has controlled the White House for two terms. McCain has struggled to find his voice in this environment. McCain's score is the worst since Jimmy Carter's in 1980. Michael Grunwald¸ TIME. And considering what's happening off paper. But now Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has more or less endorsed Obama's plan to withdraw from Iraq.

The surge of troop strength in 2007 is paying handsome dividends in 2008." Mr. Senor observed. where Mr. "There would be enormous cross-pressure against doing that if things were unstable in Iraq. more subtle reason why the surge benefits Mr. Obama. McCain. would have fewer troops available to withdraw from a much more chaotic environment. "It's hard to make the election about national security. Globe and Mail’s Washington columnist and correspondent." Mr. and opposed the surge.DDI 2008 33 KO Misc The success of the Iraq surge is paying off for Obama John Ibbitson. Mr. the success of the surge has made life easier for Barack Obama. So during this election campaign. McCain's favour. the National Newspaper Award. If there had been no surge. where Mr. Obama has said that he might "refine" that plan after talking with commanders on the ground when he visits Iraq this summer. President George W. Mr. forces will be needed in Iraq for some time.theglobeandmail. since the surge worked. nominee for the Donner Prize. Obama. Mr." There is a second. Obama. McCain's view." Dan Senor believes.IBBITSON11/TPStory/TPCom ment After every other strategy had failed. recedes from the public consciousness and the domestic economy. Obama has the advantage over Mr.S.20080711. becomes the primary focus of the presidential election campaign. which in retrospect was politically astute. Barack Obama opposed the war in Iraq.com/servlet/story/GAM. if he wins the election. . the Trillium Award and the City of Toronto Book Award. success of the surge in Iraq is helping Obama. talk of withdrawals actually works against his argument that substantial U. when national security issues aren't in the news. which may have been less astute. (Mr. if elected president. "Ironically. might be able to substantially fulfill his pledge to have virtually all American forces out of Iraq within 16 months of taking office. First of all. 7-11-08. Instead. the opposite may be true. Bush finally came around to Mr. McCain is seen as stronger than Mr. as the situation in Iraq improves. Mr. "And it's hard for national security issues to be in the news when all is quiet. the Governor General's Award. McCain. In fact. national security. Senor observes. Obama. Senor is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former adviser on Iraq to the Bush administration. http://www. Senor argues. the success of the surge should rebound in Mr. Ironically.) For Mr.

NASA will inspire the world.0. the shuttle program's scheduled end. .story In a dramatic reversal of policy.orlandosentinel. budget. The Illinois senator promised he would work to add one more space-shuttle flight beyond 2010. Obama says he will protect NASA jobs. Robert Block.4293362." he said. a community economically dependent on the Kennedy Space Center.com/community/news/ucf/orl- obama0308aug03. http://www. make America stronger and help grow the economy here in Florida. "Under my watch. declaring that the United States "cannot cede our leadership in space. He followed the morning meeting with a speech to the National Urban League convention in Orlando.Obama was more supportive of the agency than he had ever been publicly." he told 1. 8-3-08." Though he said nothing specific about sending astronauts to the moon or Mars -. "We cannot afford to lose their expertise. Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama on Saturday told supporters on the Space Coast he no longer favors slashing NASA's budget.DDI 2008 34 KO Misc Obama Good – space Obama good for space. He said he wanted to ensure thousands of contract workers didn't lose their jobs. Orlando Sentinel Staff Writer.400 people at Brevard Community College in Titusville.the central focus of NASA's plans and key to the hopes of many space supporters -.

One Republican media consultant interviewed last week termed this a "law of physics. needs to make this election about Obama. Matt Dowd.kansascity. Craig Gilbert. this is an Obama-centric race: the judgments that voters form about Obama in the next three months will have more to do with who wins than the ones they form about McCain. Related to that is an iron rule of politics: The candidate who is less familiar and established in people's minds is the one far more likely to be discussed .by the campaign. a key strategist in President's Bush's 2004 re-election race.and defined . this is what they have to do. rough him up. (that) they've made the judgment they have to somehow tarnish him. who supports Obama. But I think they've made a professional judgment that in order to win. Obama is the star of McCain’s campaign. If it's about Bush. he has a possibility to win. 8-3-08.DDI 2008 35 KO Misc McCain avoids Bush McCain wins by drawing attention to Obama and away from Bush. The battle over that candidate's image becomes the central struggle of the election. said that the 2008 election is "either about Obama or about Bush.com/445/story/732402. the subject of Obama is going to dominate the coverage and conversation. "I don't think it's very pretty. running in a lousy year for Republicans. The other is that this election already is about Obama ." In the view of many inside and outside the campaign. If it's about Obama." .even at the risk of making (McCain) himself look not so great. and their sense that he is harder to criticize.that whatever McCain says or does. "It appears the McCain people are so frustrated with Obama's star appeal. but is a longtime Senate collaborator and friend of McCain's.html One is that McCain. McCain loses. I hope it doesn't work." Feingold said." says Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold. In a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. http://www. compared with 27 percent who said the same about McCain. so that he doesn't look so great . writer for Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. 51 percent of voters said they find themselves focusing more on what kind of president Obama would be.

the electoral equation seemed pretty straightforward. Here's why: 1) Gas prices. Polls show the public wants lower gas prices and thinks oil drilling can help get them. And who can forget Obama's response when asked what he thought of higher gas prices: "I would have preferred a gradual adjustment. Yet here's McCain in a tight clinch with Obama.DDI 2008 36 KO Misc McCain Wins The weak economy is good for McCain because of what his and Obama’s policies are. arguably a far more inspirational—not to mention historic—figure. and they want to build more nuclear plants. $4-a-gallon gas. so does his economic policy. They want to drill. James Pethokoukis. Rather. a man whom French political observer Bernard-Henri Levy just declared in the New Republic magazine to be "not only the most charismatic but also the most gifted politician produced by the Democratic machine in a long time. But within the range of realistic possibilities. the mortgage mess and credit crunch looked to many like examples of free-market failure. Shouldn't Obama. pollsters will tell you that bad economies make voters skeptical of government rather than pushing them to embrace it. Now growth is sporadic at best. Approval ratings of President Bush and Congress are minuscule. The dynamic no longer seems to be a linear phenomenon in which a bad economy is good for Obama and a worse economy is even better. Certainly the expectation of Washington know-it-alls has been that a weak economy. win by a much bigger margin given voters' terrible perception of an economy battered by rising unemployment. when combined with frustration with the ongoing war in Iraq.com/blogs/capital- commerce/2008/7/15/4-reasons-the-weak-economy-is-now-helping-mccain. Bill Clinton won by 5. unemployment is rising sharply.") Up until now. Yet Obama still wants to raise investment. 4 Reasons the Weak Economy Is Now Helping McCain. unemployment was below 5 percent. Obama's economic policy was crafted when the economy was clearly expanding. the Fannie-Freddie mess could be used by Team McCain to vividly display the incompetency of big government at the exact time Obama is arguing for more government involvement in healthcare and energy. and bear markets in housing and stocks? But I think we may now be at the point where this economic mess has started working in McCain's favor. 7-15-08. the situation has become chaotic and almost impossible to predict in view of all the emerging variables. A recent Zogby poll showed that 46 percent of Democrats favored corporate taxes over taxpayer-funded federal programs as the best way to spur economic growth. by dominating the mortgage market "using subsidized credit" and pushing "private firms toward the fringes of the securitization process and into territory which included subprime and Alt-A loans. News & World Report. America doesn't think too much of its government right now. the better it was for Democrat Barack Obama and the worse for Republican John McCain. Democrats want to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. would give Obama at least a 10-point landslide. I may as well call it a day and go home right now. And Newsweek has Obama ahead by just 3 points—within the margin of error—after putting him up by a whopping 15 points last month. 4) A skeptical public. 2) Stale Obamanomics. But instead of opening up new areas to drilling. http://www. and the deficit is likely to top a record $500 billion. "If that poll is somehow right. is talking about pro-growth tax cuts and balancing the budget by the end of his first term. a McCain adviser told me. And out-and-out recession. But Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are creations of a federal government trying to promote a specific economic policy—greater homeownership.html The 2008 presidential race has gone weirdly nonlinear." In any event. on the other hand. McCain may now have a roughly fifty-fifty shot at victory. Recall that a big corporate tax cut is at the heart of the McCain economic program. The latest Rasmussen poll has Barack Obama with a 2 percentage-point lead over John McCain (Obama had been consistently leading by 5 points for the past six weeks). Indeed.S. 3) The Fannie and Freddie fiasco. Up until the announcement of the Paulson-Bernanke bailout. explains economist Brian Wesbury. assistant managing editor of the magazine's Money & Business section. McCain. Like his energy policy. . the gas tax moratorium—to appeal to voters furious about higher prices at the pump. and payroll taxes while expanding spending. Just as Obama's Iraq policy seems stuck in the past. And the artificial existence of these quasi-corporate creatures has contributed mightily to the housing mess. and the budget deficit was plunging.6 percentage points and 202 electoral votes in 1992. income. McCain seems to be smartly tweaking his policies on the fly—drilling." Look. And McCain and the Republicans have positioned themselves as the party of more energy and lower prices. money and politics columnist for U. would doom the GOP nominee. That's definitely the prediction of all those sophisticated presidential election forecasting models. according to the model of economist Ray Fair of Yale University." One problem may be that Obama fashioned his energy plan when oil was a mere $60 a barrel.usnews. The more the economy weakened. A big risk for Obama is that he will mistake a dislike of the GOP for a love of bigger government and overreach on policy and rhetoric. (After seeing that first Newsweek poll.

director of the school's polling institute. Ellen Gamerman.DDI 2008 37 KO Misc Polls Fail Either voters lie on polls or those who don’t take polls are a significant demographic. when the late Tom Bradley." Questions about polling and race were raised during this year's presidential primaries. Skeptics say the issue was neither race nor honesty. 8-2-08. The phrase refers to California's 1982 gubernatorial election. Obama leads Republican rival John McCain 47% to 41%. according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey last month.wsj. In a recently released study. polls gave Sen. doesn't blame lying. One theory is that Mr. "Why they're lying is probably as varied as individuals are varied. Clinton went on to win the state. Bradley lost the election. director of survey research at the Pew Research Center in Washington. http://online. Pollster Andrew Kohut. it's not because people lied. a black Democratic mayor of Los Angeles. he says. Mr. it's because the people who turned down the polls have different attitudes than the people who took the polls. Sacred Heart University in Fairfield. president of the Pew Research Center." says Jerry Lindsley. Obama and Sen. ." says Scott Keeter. In New Hampshire. reporter for The Wall Street Journal. led in exit polls against white Republican George Deukmejian. Deukmejian's supporters simply didn't want to participate in polls. found nearly 11% of people who have reported being polled said they have lied to pollsters about their views on politics and public affairs.html?mod=googlenews_wsj Pollsters look for the "Bradley Effect. they might all of a sudden get nervous about the kinds of questions they're being asked and start to lie or not be totally straightforward.." he says. Sen. Aides to Sen. "When polls get it wrong. The conclusion: some voters hid their true choice from pollsters. "There certainly is a presumption that people self-censor to some degree. Sen. Instead. But the two camps no doubt take surveys with a grain of salt. When Voters Lie. "Halfway through a survey.com/article/SB121763171653206035. Conn. some voters who were poorer." the idea that some white voters are reluctant to say they support a white candidate over a black candidate. Obama as much as a 10-percentage-point advantage over Hillary Clinton the day before the primary. less-educated and white may have had less favorable views of African-Americans and were less likely to take surveys. McCain declined to discuss the details of the candidates' polling strategies.