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LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___

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Serving Utah Since. . .Now

INDEX

TERRORISM ADD-ON ……………………………..2-3
INHERENCY……………………………………….4-5
SCIENCE INVESTMENT DECREASING……6-8
OTHER NATIONS CATCHING UP…………..9
FUNDING KEY TO EFFECTIVENESS……..10
ECON INTERNALS-Market Harmonization..11
ECON INTERNALS-Competitiveness………12-17
ECON INTERNALS-Job Creation…….18-21
ECON INTERNALS-Oil Prices………22-23
GENERAL SOLVENCY…………..24
LEADERSHIP INTERNALS…….25
IMPACT EXTENSION-ECON…………26-27
IMPACT EXTENSION-Leadership….28-30
IMPACT EXTENSION-Terrorism……31-35
NON UNIQUE-Increasing Incentives Now…36
AT-SQ Incentives Solve………………..37
AT-Oil Supplies OK…………………….38-39
Now Key Time………………………….40
AT-Trades Off With DOE Research….41
AT-No Shortterm Solvency………….42
AT-Alternatives Fail………………43
AT-T Government Research………44
AT-Plan Unpopular………………45
AT-Science Bad………………….46-49

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LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___)
Serving Utah Since. . .Now

Terrorism Add-On

Programs that train new scientists and aim at longterm discovery are critical to homeland
security and fighting terrorism
NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and
National Academy of Medicine, Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and
Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future,
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id)

Scientific and engineering research demonstrated its essential role in the nation’s defense
during World War II. Research led to the rapid development and deployment of the
atomic bomb, radar and sonar detectors, nylon that revolutionized parachute use, and
penicillin that saved battlefield lives. Throughout the Cold War the United States relied
on a technological edge to offset the larger forces of its adversaries and thus generously
supported basic research. The US military continues to depend on new and emerging
technologies to respond to the diffuse and uncertain threats that characterize the 21st
century and to provide the men and women in uniform with the best possible equipment
and support.37 Just as Vannevar Bush described a tight linkage between research and
security,38 the Hart–Rudman Commission a half-century later argued that security can be
achieved only by funding more basic research in a variety of fields.39 In the wake of the
9/11 attacks and the anthrax mailings, it is clear that innovation capacity and homeland
security are also tightly coupled. There can be no security without the economic vitality
created by innovation, just as there can be no economic vitality without a secure
environment in which to live and work.40 Investment in R&D for homeland security has
grown rapidly; however, most of it has been in the form of development of new
technologies to meet immediate needs. Human capacity is as important as research
funding. As part of its comprehensive overview of how science and technology could
contribute to countering terrorism, for example, the National Research Council
recommended a human-resources development program similar to the post-Sputnik
National Defense Education Act (NDEA) of 1958.41 A Department of Defense proposal
to create and fund a new NDEA is currently being examined in Congress.42

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LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___)
Serving Utah Since. . .Now

Terrorism Add-On
TERRORISM RISKS EXTINCTION

Alexander in 2003
Yonah Alexander, Inter-University for Terrorism Studies Director, 2003
[The Washington Times, "Terrorism myths and realities," 8/28]

Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have
once again illustrated dramatically that the international community
failed, thus far at least, to understand the magnitude and implications
of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. Even
the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard
terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical
strategic challenge to their national security concerns. It is not
surprising, therefore, that on September 11, 2001, Americans were
stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists
striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial
and military powers. Likewise, Israel and its citizens, despite the
collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of
terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three
years ago, are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of
intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process
through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. Why are
the United States and Israel, as well as scores of other countries
affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by
new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons, including
misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to
terrorism's expansion, such as lack of a universal definition of
terrorism, the religionization of politics, double standards of morality,
weak punishment of terrorists, and the exploitation of the media by
terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. Unlike their historical
counterparts, contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of
violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and
impact. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future
terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism
[e.g. biological, chemical, radiological, nuclear and cyber] with its
serious implications concerning national, regional and global security
concerns.

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LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___)
Serving Utah Since. . .Now

Inherency-Not Funded Now

Despite Congressional support the administration has refused to fund ARPA-E
Sternstein in 2006 (Aliya [staff] Federal Computer Week, May 1, 2006
http://www.fcw.com/print/12_15/news/94203-1.html)

Gordon said the innovation portion of the president’s fiscal 2007 budget request might
have been inspired by the NAS report, but the budget addresses only a limited number of
the report’s recommendations. The NAS report recommends the creation of a new agency
modeled after the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Defense Department
agency that created ArpaNet, which predated the Internet. House Science Committee
members held a hearing in March to discuss whether developing a new organization
within DOE — dubbed ARPA-E — could advance U.S. energy competitiveness. Several
innovation bills promote ARPA-E as a program that could help wean the country of its
dependence on foreign oil. Sens. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.),
Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) introduced an R&D package
in January that authorizes the creation of ARPA-E. That package, the Protect America’s
Competitive Edge Act, includes three bills to implement the NAS report
recommendations.

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the White House said. the White House issued a statement saying Bush is "concerned" about ARPA-E and other provisions in the bill.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. calls for DOE to establish an "Advanced Research Projects Agency ? Energy. The statement that the White House issued last week said Bush is "concerned that the legislation includes excessive [funding] authorizations and new duplicative programs. 2007 President Bush signed legislation last week that will create a major new research agency at the Energy Department. he claims it would trade off with existing research Inside Energy August 13. It fears that the agency would take away congressionally appropriated funds from DOE's Science Office and other energy programs. The America COMPETES Act (H. however. White House science advisor John Marburger told Platts in a recent interview that his "concern has always been that creation of all new programs in DOE will compete with our efforts to get research funding in the Office of Science. compared with $3. Bush praised parts of the bill that will boost funding for math and science education." The new law. among other things." to pursue high-risk research that could lead to the development of break-through energy technologies to address the country's energy security concerns. is "more appropriately left to the private sector.R. It authorizes $300 million for ARPA-E in fiscal 2008. In a signing ceremony in the Oval Office on Thursday. but not for provisions that would require "excessive or duplicative funding. the White House said 5 .Now Inherency-Not Funded Now Despite signing legislation that funds ARPA-E.5 billion in fiscal 2008. But later that day. puts the science office on track to double its budget. which the House and Senate passed earlier this month." The research that ARPA-E will take on. It also separates ARPA-E monies from the rest of DOE. the Administration has refused to request funding for the past two years. Bush will request funding in his 2009 budget for provisions in the bill that he supports. The Bush administration has been opposed to the ARPA-E concept since it was introduced in 2005 as part of a National Academies report. The law calls for the department's science program to receive $4. But Bush said he would not call for full funding for the office over concerns that it would siphon resources away from existing DOE programs.8 billion in fiscal 2007. . 2272)." He added that the department does not "need a lot of other missions to spend money on right now." Accordingly. which has been badly in need of new resources. . Despite an independent staff and funding mandate.

6 . and speech recognition. US industry spent more on tort litigation than on research and development. the most capable high-energy particle accelerator on Earth will. only four American companies ranked among the top 10 corporate recipients of patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office. as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP).LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. the corporate research structure has been significantly eroded. GE Research. The companies and nation can.edu/openbook. . IBM Research.37 In 2005. however. . Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. and others. Some of the most important fundamental research in the 20th century was accomplished in corporate laboratories—Bell Labs.41 Private sector R&D is aimed at near term products eroding the entire research structure NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine. reside outside the United States.Now Science Investment Decreasing Both private and public sources of research funding are drying up NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine. was 45% less in fiscal year (FY) 2004 than in FY 1976. One reason might be the challenge of capturing the results of research investments within one company or even a single nation on a long-term basis. for the first time. and engineering combined equals the annual increase in US healthcare costs incurred every 20 days.php?record_id=11463&page=R1) The US research structure that evolved after World War II was a self-reinforcing triangle of industry.edu/openbook. capture high-technology discoveries at least for the near term (5-10 years) and enhance the importance of innovation in jobs. corporate funding of certain applied research has been enhanced at such companies as Google and Intel and at many biotechnology companies. Nonetheless.php?record_id=11463&page=R1) In 2001 (the most recent year for which data are available). the increasing pressure on corporations for short-term results has made investments in research highly problematic. mathematics. academe. Xerox PARC.38 Beginning in 2007. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future.35 For example.nap. Since that time. the United States has successfully capitalized on research in monoclonal antibodies. As a result. network systems.nap.39Federal funding of research in the physical sciences. http://books. http://books.40 The amount invested annually by the US federal government in research in the physical sciences. and government. Two sides of that triangle—industrial research and government investment in R&D as a fraction of gross domenstic product (GDP) have changed dramatically.

36 Widespread. For example.38 But reducing the risk for individual research projects increases the likelihood that breakthrough. kidney dialysis. . recognizes this concern.Now Science Investment Decreasing Current government R&D investment is aimed at short-term gains preventing tech breakthroughs that would create entire industries NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future.php?record_id=11463&page=R1) Although support for research in the life sciences increased sharply in the 1990s and produced remarkable results. The NIH roadmap39 established in fiscal year (FY) 2004. funding for research in most physical sciences. mathematics. if anecdotal.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. even the generally highly effective Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has been criticized in this regard in congressional testimony. high-payoff. but the amount of funds devoted to long-term. “disruptive” technologies will not be found—the kinds of discoveries that often yield huge returns. and engineering—have become increasingly risk-averse and focused onshort-term results. mathematics. and magnetic resonance imaging— are the result of R&D in the physical sciences.nap. “smart” pacemakers. Even to those whose principal interest is in health or healthcare. A recent National Academies study37 revealed that the average age at which a principal investigator receives his or her first grant is 42 years—partly because of requirements for evidence of an extensive “track record” to reduce risk to the grant-makers.edu/openbook. Many believe that federal funding agencies—perhaps influenced by the stagnation of funding levels in the physical sciences. engineering. high-risk research remains very limited. evidence shows that even the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have changed their approach in this regard. http://books. and engineering has declined or remained relatively flat—in real purchasing power—for several decades. and mathematics. that seems short-sighted: Many medical devices and procedures— such as endoscopic surgery. . History also suggests that young researchers make disproportionately important discoveries. 7 . The need is to strengthen investment in the latter areas while not disinvesting in those areas of the health sciences that are producing promising results.

NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine. . environmental research—supported by agencies other than NIH also has leveled off.php?record_id) Public funding for science and engineering rose through the 1990s. including that of the health sciences. Funding for important areas of the life sciences—plant science. these are disciplines that lead to innovation across the spectrum of modern life.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since.edu/openbook. and increases for mathematics and engineering only slightly surpassed inflation (Figure 3-13).nap. Federal spending on the physical sciences remained roughly flat. Must invest in physical sciences. ecology.49 8 .Now Science Investment Decreasing Current public investment in research is only medical. The lack of new funding for research in the physical sciences. . Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. Yet. but virtually all of the increase went to biomedical research at NIH. http://books. mathematics. and engineering raises concern about the overall health of the science and engineering research enterprise.

to fund incubation centers for new businesses.19 Similarly. to promote venture capital activity.Now Other Countries Catching Up Research funding increasing worldwide threatening US dominance NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine. R&D as a percentage of GDP was 2.13 Their strategies include the willingness to increase public support for research universities. In the 1990s. That deficit raises concern about our competitive ability in important areas of technology. by 2010.18 in France. Switzerland.98 in Japan.18The rapid rise of South Korea as a major science and engineering power has been fueled by the establishment of the Korea Science Foundation—funded primarily by the national sports lottery—to enhance public understanding. the number of papers listed in the Science Citation Index.20 Some consequences of this new global science and engineering activity are already apparent—not only in manufacturing but also in services.15 In 2000. USR&D spending increased 140%. knowledge. The Chinese Science Foundation is modeled after our National Science Foundation. 3-4). member nations spend 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) on research and development (R&D). and 1. .17 China is emulating the US system as well. we can take pride in watching as other nations eagerly adopt major components of the US innovation model.14 Many nations have made research a high priority. To attract the best graduate students from around the world. Other nations also are spending more on higher education and providing incentives for students to study science and engineering. EU leaders are urging that. In China. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. 2. the number of researchers. other nations are strengthening their own programs and institutions.16 Many nations also are investing more aggressively in higher education and increasing their public investments in R&D (Figure 3-1).85 in the United Kingdom. . while the share for emerging countries in Asia grew from 7 to 27%. to enhance protections for intellectual property rights. 3-3. Those investments are stimulating growth in the number of research universities in those countries.21 In broader terms. and there was steady growth in South Korea.22 The United States now has a negative trade balance even for high-technology products (Figure 3-5). both China and Japan increased the number of students pursuing science and engineering degrees.72 in the United States. http://books. and peer review methodology and startup packages for junior faculty are patterned on US practices. 2.php?record_id) It is no surprise that as the value of research becomes more widely understood.nap. and elsewhere are offering science and engineering courses in English. universities in Japan. Figures 3-2. To position the European Union (EU) as the most competitive knowledge-based economy in the world and enhance its attractiveness to researchers worldwide. from $177 billion to $245 billion. the US share of global exports has fallen in the past 20 years from 30 to 17%. and acceptance of science and engineering throughout the nation. and to expand opportunities for innovative small companies.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since.49 in Germany.edu/openbook. and the number of doctoral degrees granted (Table 3-1. the government uses contests and prizes specifically to stimulate the scientific enterprise and public appreciation of scientific knowledge. If imitation is flattery. national spending in the past few years for all R&D activities rose 500%. in the same period. India’s software services exports rose from essentially zero in 1993 to about $10 billion in 2002. the number of patents awarded.23 9 . from $14 billion in 1991 to $65 billion in 2002. 2.

house. "It is the culture of innovation at DARPA that has made it so successful and unique.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since." 10 . . Historically. and the talented and passionate staff is the heart of that culture." said Gordon. . ‘far out’ research for the Department of Defense which resulted in some of the most transformational technologies of our time.gov/Press/PRArticle.aspx?NewsID=2151) "I want to congratulate the men and women of DARPA who have been on the vanguard of our nation’s technological superiority for a half century.Now Funding Key To Effectiveness Adequate funding key to ARPA-E research House of Representatives Press Office in 2008 (April 9. 2008 http://science. DARPA defied conventional thinking and pursued cutting-edge and. With adequate funding and forward-thinking leadership. ARPA-E might be celebrating the same level of revolutionary results 50 years from now. some might say. It’s time we take the DARPA model and apply it to the most pressing challenge we face today – energy.

the U.-EU Summit consider joint efforts in clean energy technologies that will help us address our shared concerns about energy security and climate change. In short. In the area of the environment. And so. May 19.S. by creating the Transatlantic Economic Council (TEC). have friends.-EU Summit in Washington. So there is a strong incentive to work together as friends and partners. we could generate $10 billion in saved costs and potential growth for the transatlantic economy. Let's remember that the transatlantic market today makes up nearly 55 percent of global GDP and about 40 percent of world trade. eliminate barriers to transatlantic trade. and was signed by President Bush. However. The goal of the TEC is to promote regulatory cooperation. . Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs] State Department Press Release. . we are trying to do exactly that.S. and strengthen support for open investment regimes. The U. Both the United States and Europe believe in strong and effective regulation to protect our citizens and the environment. unnecessary differences in our regulatory approaches have made our companies less competitive.S. it is trying to reduce barriers to trade and investment. also has partners. working together. in some cases. raised consumer costs. Chamber of Commerce and BusinessEurope believe that if we could align our economies better. the Transatlantic Economic Council is recommending that the June 2008 U. DC. 2008) So.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since.Now Econ Internals-European Market Harmonization Encouraging alternative energy production harmonizes US and European markets. 11 . which met for the second time today in Brussels. This is crucial to continuing US access to 55% of the world economy and the continuation of transatlantic trade Graffy in 2008 (Colleen [Deputy Asst.S. reduced consumer choice and slowed job creation. The TEC was created in April 2007. under the Framework for Advancing Transatlantic Economic Integration.S. advance capital market liberalization. Chancellor Merkel and European Commission President Barroso during the U. when I am posed the question: "Does America have friends in Europe with regard to trade and climate change?" I would say not only does the U.

2008) One of the major causes of our energy crisis is the failed policies of the current Administration. it is up to the Congress to try to jumpstart a comprehensive solution to skyrocketing energy prices. fare increases. The relentless increase in jet fuel prices has contributed to airline bankruptcies. our energy costs are rising much more quickly than energy costs in other countries. Because the Administration has proved itself unable and unwilling to take the necessary steps to provide affordable energy supplies to the American people.70 per gallon. and jet fuel. mergers. diesel fuel. rising comparative costs crush US competitiveness Levin in 2008 (Carl [Senator. heating oil. Rising diesel prices have placed a crushing burden upon our nation's truckers. heating our homes and offices. 12 . and other industries.40 per gallon. directly threatening our global competitiveness. Sky- high crude oil prices have led to record highs in the price of other fuels produced from crude oil. this industry cannot survive in current form. "If fuel continues to go up. farmers. Rising energy prices increase the cost of producing the medicines we need for our health. traveling by car. May 12. The chickens have come home to roost on seven years of a business-as- usual energy policy. generating electricity. and growing the food we eat and transporting it to market. has soared to a record high of nearly $4. and service cuts.25 per gallon." the president of the Air Transport Association said recently. manufacturers. including gasoline. The price of diesel fuel. paired with fiscal and foreign policies that have pushed our growing energy problem close to a breaking point.Now Econ Internals-Competitiveness The current approach emphasizes oil over alternative incentives. Rising energy prices increase the cost of getting to work and taking our children to school. Michigan] States News Service. truck.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. Jet fuel costs nearly $3. and manufacturing countless industrial and consumer products. . The price of crude oil recently reached a record high price of about $126 per barrel. . air and rail. To make matters worse. The national average price of gasoline is at a record high of about $3. which is normally less expensive than gasoline.

Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. assisted by progressive government policies. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. techniques and tools so advanced that there is no competition. Bush has said “Science and technology have never been more essential to the defense of the nation and the health of our economy. flatter world—as long as US workers remain among the best educated. It is the view of this committee that the determining factors in such outcomes are the extent of a nation’s commitment to get out and compete in the global marketplace. hardest-working.New generations of US scientists and engineers. They will be those who develop talent. could lead the way to US leadership in the new. The big winners in the increasingly fierce global scramble for supremacy will not be those who simply make commodities faster and cheaper than the competition.php?record_id=11463&page=R1) President George W.Now Econ Internals-Competitiveness Science investment key to US competitiveness NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.php?record_id=11463&page=R1) It has also been argued that in a period of tectonic change such as the one that the global community is now undergoing.nap. Major economic changes mean some nations will lose and pay the economic consequences.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. best trained. .edu/openbook.nap. there will inevitably be nations and individuals that are winners or losers.”5A letter from the leadership of the National Science Foundation to the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology put the case even more bluntly:6Civilization is on the brink of a new industrial order. and most productive in the world.edu/openbook. http://books. . http://books. 13 . Training new scientists is key to avoid the loss of US competitiveness NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.

Korea. Well-paying jobs.edu/openbook.46 China formally adopted a pro-R&D policy in the middle of the 1990s and has been moving rapidly to raise government spending on basic research. Our economy depends on the knowledge that fuels the growth of business and plants the seeds of new industries. which in turn provides rewarding employment for commensurately educated workers. The governments of Finland. . and high-quality education require the discovery.47 The United States is now part of a connected. The United States must match that tempo if it hopes to maintain the degree of prosperity it has enjoyed in the past. competitiveness healthcare and wages are all dependent on taking action to match the research efforts of developing countries across the world NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.php?record_id=11463&page=R1) A common denominator of the concerns expressed by many citizens is the need for and use of knowledge. strengthen research institutions. 14 . Canada.Now Econ Internals-Competitiveness Jobs.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. . accessible healthcare. and Singapore have mapped and implemented strategies to increase the knowledge base of students and researchers. competitive world in which many nations are empowering their indigenous “brainware” and building new and effective performance partnerships—and they are doing so with remarkable focus. and promote exports of high-technology products—activities in which the United States has in the past excelled. Ireland. Chapter 2 explains that US prosperity since World War II has depended heavily on the excellence of its “knowledge institutions”: high-technology industries. http://books. vigor. to reform old structures in a fashion that supports a market economy. and determination. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. and to build indigenous capacity in science and technology. federal R&D agencies. and research universities that are generally acknowledged to be the best in the world. and dissemination of information and techniques.The innovation model in place for a half- century has been so successful in the United States that other nations are now beginning to emulate it.nap. application.

9% in 1964 (it has since fallen to 0.php?record_id) Central to prosperity over the last 50 years has been our massive investment in science and technology. Government spending on research and development (R&D) soared after World War II. . .8%2). and obtains 44% of science and engineering citations. he says. the long-term growth rate of the US economy would have been closer to 2. If our economy had grown at that lower rate over the last 50 years.6 Business Week chief economist Michael Mandel argues that. and government spending on R&D as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) reached a peak of 1. http://books.nap. the United States employs nearly one-third of the world’s scientific and engineering researchers.Now Econ Internals-Competitiveness Loss of research and science leadership would crush 40% of the US economy NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.6% that has been the average since the end of World War II. with just 5% of the world’s population.5% annually rather than the 3. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. Technology improvements have accounted for up to one-half of GDP growth and at least two-thirds of productivity growth since 1946. By 1970.7 15 . accounts for 40% of all R&D spending. the World Economic Forum puts us second (after Finland) in overall competitiveness and first in technology and innovation.edu/openbook. the United States enrolled 30% of all postsecondary students in the world.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. and more than half the world’s science and engineering doctorates were awarded here. publishes 35% of science and engineering articles.3 Today. it would be 40% smaller today. wages. The International Institute for Management Development ranks the United States first in global competitiveness.4 The United States comes out at or near the top of global rankings for competitiveness. with corresponding implications for jobs. and the standard of living. without innovation.5 Leadership in science and technology has translated into rising standards of living.

US researchers become leaders of global research networks. It is clearly in America’s interest for China. trade. or financial flows can have major global consequences. the United States maintains leadership across key areas. by 2020 China will need to boost energy consumption by 150%. The US education system sets the standard for quality and innovation.edu/openbook. Just as global health. reduce the federal budget deficit. . and support an aging population. paradoxically. aging populations will require new treatments for chronic diseases. . But it does require that the United States maintain and extend its capacity to generate value as part of a global innovation system. Each challenge offers an opportunity for the United States to position itself as the leader in the markets that will be created for solutions to global challenges in such fields as energy. Methods to manage complex systems and respond quickly to emergencies will be essential. but it also spawned a range of challenges that. US leadership in science and technology supports our military leadership and addresses the major challenges of homeland security. Meanwhile. http://books. The United States might have a smaller share of the world’s economy. environmental. affordable. 16 . the success of other nations need not imply the failure of the United States. and nanotechnology will improve life for billions of people. there are several likely results: Although the US share of total scientific output continues to decline. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. The leadership of the United States in science and technology will make a critical contribution to those efforts and will benefit the lives of Americans here at home. It is important to recognize that all nations in the global economy are now inextricably linked. The increased movement of people around the world will lead to more outbreaks of communicable diseases. the EU.Now Econ Internals-Competitiveness Research solves the economy multiple ways NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.php?record_id) The relative competitive lead enjoyed by the United States will almost certainly shrink as other nations rapidly improve their science and technology capacity. attracting and anchoring investment from around the world. That means greater challenges for the United States. will have to be solved through appropriate investments in research: To maintain its current rate of growth. but it also presents an opportunity to raise living standards and improve quality of life around the world and to create a safer world. but the economy itself will be larger. biotechnology. and reliable energy. security measures must advance. it is the thesis of this report that it is important that such global prosperity be shared by the citizens of the United States. However. Investors continue to find it attractive to place their funds in US firms seeking to innovate and generate jobs in America. India. giving graduates a competitive edge over the larger number of lower wage scientists and engineers trained in the developing world.nap. and security issues affect everyone. If we increase our commitment to leadership in science and technology. The rapid worldwide development that has resulted from advances in science and technology has raised global standards of living. Our economy generates sufficient growth to reduce our trade imbalances. and India will need to do so by 100%. Our universities and national laboratories act as centers for regional innovation. so are we all dependent on the continued growth of other economies. Advances in information technology. Japan. In an increasingly interconnected economy.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. healthcare. Around the world. As the means to develop weapons of mass destruction become more widely available.60 It will be essential to develop clean. Their failure would pose a far greater threat to US prosperity and security than would their success. and other nations to succeed. In the global economy. no nation can prosper in isolation. For that reason. and security. even small disruptions to communications. the growing scale and sophistication of science and technology mean that we are much more likely to be able to solve those and other problems that will confront us. The strains of managing global growth will require global collaboration.

lowering the overall standard of living in the United States. Multinationals from China. domestic job creation and wage growth could stall. low-cost scientists and engineers. bringing on a crisis. several factors might lead to such an outcome: Rising spending on social security. If growth continuesat the current rate. The consequences would be enormous. and once lost. Excessive regulation of research institutions reduces the amount of money available for actual research. Those possibilities would exacerbate and accelerate the trends noted in Scenario 1: The availability of scientists and engineers could drop precipitously if foreign students and workers stop coming in large numbers. which could take decades to reverse. . while US-based multinationals that still have a large percentage of their employees in the United States begin to fail.The rapid pace of technological change and the increasing mobility of capital knowledge and talent mean that our current lead in science and technology could evaporate more quickly than is generally recognized if we fail to support it. . 17 . US venture capitalists begin to place their funds abroad. Many economists argue that such an imbalance is unsustainable in the long term. Scenario 2 considers what might happen if the commitment to science and technology were to lessen. Social Security.58 In 2005. building the capabilities of other nations while the US innovation system atrophies. could begin to dominate global markets. and Medicaid accounted for 8. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future.php?record_id) In Scenario 1. building on success in their domestic markets and on supplies of talented.edu/openbook. our lead would be difficult to regain. now more than $600 billion or about 6% of GDP. the federal government’s total spending for Medicare and Medicaid alone would reach 22% of GDP by 2050.4% of GDP. requires more than $2 billion a day of foreign investment. As innovation and investment move overseas.59 A loss of competitiveness in key export industries could lead to a loss of confidence in the US ability to cover the debt.nap. Medicare. and other developing nations. Although that would run counter to our national history. The war on terrorism refocuses government resources on short-term survival rather than long-term R&D. either because immigration restrictions make it more difficult or because better opportunities elsewhere reduce the incentives to work in the United States.Now Econ Internals-Competitiveness A more detailed scenario for economic and competitive collapse without science leadership NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine. Short-term cuts in funding for specific fields could lead to a rapid decline in the number of students in those disciplines.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. affecting jobs and the broader economy. If they were faced with a lack of qualified workers. Increasingly attractive opportunities overseas draw industrial R&D funding and talented US scientists and engineers away from the United States. http://books. Medicare. Higher US effective corporate tax rates discourage companies from investing in new facilities and research in the United States. Financing the US trade deficit. searching for higher returns. the United States continues to invest enough to maintain current trends in science and technology education and performance. leading to a slow decline in competitiveness. India. and Medicaid (now 42% of federal outlays compared with 25% in 1975) limit federal and state resources available for science and technology. multinational corporations might accelerate their overseas hiring.

Roberts and Wheeler counties). "The development of alternative energy projects. Development of the region's wind resources will also create an economic bonus similar to the boom the three largest wind farms in America have created around Sweetwater in Nolan County." he said. it peaks and starts declining.Now Econ Internals-Job Creation Incentives for alternative resources key to preserve the US economy in two ways." said Pickens. commissioned by Mesa Power. The study forecast the project would generate an estimated 1. 18 . First cushion for peak oil. low population and steady winds. new roads and houses. Studies show the Texas Panhandle winds are optimal for such a project. there's no decline curve. Roberts and Wheeler counties.500 jobs during the construction phase. "You find an oilfield. While other towns in West Texas struggle with plummeting house prices and job losses." Pickens said. Gray.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. With wind. Hemphill. An Austin-based Resource Inc. Sweetwater is in the midst of a construction explosion. that they enact a long-term extension of the Production Tax Credits. and $120 million during the operation phase. "It can drive you crazy.000 turbines. and 720 during a typical year of the operation phase. with its wide-open space. "I believe that Congress will recognize that it is critical not only to this project. Gray. but to renewable energy in this country. especially renewable resources such as wind power. is a logical location for wind-generated energy. second investments trickle down gauaranteeing massive local investment and job creation PR Newswire May 15. another renting out cranes used in erecting new turbines. projects that the Mesa Power wind farm will bring significant increases in jobs and income for the five counties of the project investment zone (Carson. The more significant impact during the operation phase is largely due to lease payments to be made to landowners in the project area amounting to $65. one servicing the blades of the county's 2. Tax revenues from the wind energy companies are bringing jobs." The Panhandle. 2008 Mesa Power is hopeful that the Pampa Wind Project will qualify for the Federal Production Tax Credits in 2010 and 2011 when the project will begin commercial operations. Hemphill.3 million per year. and you've got to find another one to replace it. . is critical for the future of the country in the face of declining world oil resources. personal income in the project investment zone will rise by $68. . blowing much of the time in the middle of the day when electric demand is at its peak. Two new companies opened in the past month.7 million per year during the construction phase. Mesa Power has leased land in Carson. and renovating local schools and hospitals there. who once operated one of the largest independent oil and gas production companies. economic impact study. where the landowners will receive annual royalties for the wind turbines operating on their property.

" he said. He said industry clusters related to advanced materials and alternative energy offer potential for growth in the state and the region. says clusters remain critical to the economic growth and competitiveness of the country and metropolitan areas such as Dayton. it's hard for any of them to leave. Blair said. New York and finance or. "You're much better off to study your local economy and think rigorously about what things have a natural advantage in your area rather than just reading what's in the newspaper and picking what's popular.Now Econ Internals-Job Creation Alternative energy investments create clusters of businesses that linked to one another creating sustainable longterm growth in US cities. the study's co-author and a venture capitalist. said both ideas hold promise. .LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. The concept . Think Hollywood and entertainment. D. an economics professor with Wright State University who has studied the issue locally. Karen Mills. 19 . sharing laborers. politicians and academics call them clusters. Regions need to look at what businesses and support services they already have and build upon those. he said. of course. 2008 Development experts." he said.is nothing new. This is crucial to reviving the US economy and competitiveness Dayton Daily News May 11." The establishment of interdependent businesses also helps keep companies in the area. Dayton and automotive manufacturing. "You're building a more lasting economic base.-based think tank. Manufacturers often require capital to buy new equipment and training for their workers in order to tap into these areas. Having money to conduct feasibility studies and other research could help regions find ways to fix deficiencies they may have." David Swenson is vice president of business initiatives with the Edison Materials Technology Center. "There's a big tendency in people who practice economic development to jump on the bandwagon. "Once they are here. John Blair. once they are all reinforcing each other. he said.similar businesses locating near and trading with one another. driving university research and training . But he cautions that any data gathered needs to be tempered with information provided by local experts in the public and private sector to give meaning to the numbers. said the federal government can support their growth by providing data and funding.C. an organization that assists manufacturers. . a Washington. But a recent study by the Brookings Institute.

000 jobs are likely to be sent overseas each year. an assumption that in turn depends on our continued development of new technologies and training of workers for the jobs of the 21st century. estimates that about 225. however. Global Insight. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. . agree on two fundamental points: in the short term. Many experts point out that the number of jobs lost to offshoring is small compared with the regular monthly churning of jobs in the US economy. In 2004. McKinsey.32 The optimists and the pessimists. higher skilled careers. .28 The Information Technology Association of America (ITAA). for example.php?record_id) Forrester Research estimates that 3. the private sector created more than 30 million jobs and lost about 29 million. free trade with low-wage countries with rapidly improving innovation capacities will help or hurt the US economy in the long term. some US workers will lose their jobs and face difficult transitions to new. http://books.nap.4 million US jobs could be lost to offshoring by 2015.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since.Now Econ Internals-Job Creation Only tech investment can guarantee the job creation needed for US economic stability NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.4 million jobs. the net gain was 1.edu/openbook. America’s only hope for continuing to create new high-wage jobs is to maintain our lead in innovation. this suggests that the US economy will continue to create new jobs at a constant rate. and in the long term. more generally.31 Once again. a small fraction of the total annual job churn.27 Ashok Bardhan and Cynthia Kroll calculate that more than 14 million US jobs are at risk of being sent offshore. 20 . Economists and others actively debate whether outsourcing or.29 and McKinsey and Company30 all argue that those losses will be offset by net gains in US employment—presuming that the United States takes the steps needed to maintain a vibrant economy.

edu/openbook. and 15 million in 8 high-wage countries. the ability to interact comfortably with diverse clientele. that only 13% of the potential talent supply in low- wage nations is suited to work for multinational corporations because these individuals lack language skills. NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.7 million in the United States.Now Econ Internals-Job Creation Scientific investment effectively combats offshoring. because of low-quality domestic education systems. Language barriers etc.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. and because of a lack of cultural fit. including knowledge of other cultures. US workers also must be able to communicate effectively orally and in writing. For the United States to compete. workers in low-wage countries increasingly will be in direct competition with workers from developed nations. 21 . . there is much to do to prepare US students for work in a more competitive global economy— as well as to provide the rudimentary skills needed in any economy.nap. The same study estimates. Although much of our education system is working to teach those skills. manage projects. http://books.php?record_id) A recent McKinsey and Company study45 reported that the supply of young professionals (university graduates with up to 7 years of experience) in low-wage countries vastly outstrips the supply in high-wage countries. prevent the offshoring of high-tech industries. . then. including 7. however. its workers can and must bring to the workplace not only technical skills and knowledge but other valuable skills. lead teams. and the motivation to apply their skills. There were 33 million people in that category in 28 low-wage countries. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. and solve problems.46 With opportunities to study or work abroad or to work at home for a multinational corporation.

The federal government must do its part first to develop these technologies so that they will then in turn be within reach of the American public. We need expanded federal research and development grants as well as increased tax incentives and federal loan guarantees to make cellulosic ethanol a viable replacement for gasoline. May 12. . advanced batteries. Such an investment will make technologies such as plug-in hybrid vehicles affordable to the American public. 2008) I have long been advocated advanced automotive technologies such as hybrid electric. We need an equally strong investment in development of alternative fuels that can replace gasoline. which requires a significantly greater federal investment in biofuels technologies. We need a strong push toward biofuels produced from cellulosic materials. 22 . I have strongly supported efforts to increase our production of renewable fuels and to do that in a way that will also reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. hydrogen and fuel cells and promoted development of these technologies through federal research and development and through joint government- industry partnerships. We need a significant infusion of federal dollars into these efforts to make revolutionary breakthroughs in automotive technologies. .Now Econ Internals-Oil Prices Only US investment in alternative energy sources can drive down oil prices. and reduce our dependence on oil and reduce prices at the pump. Incentives are crucial to tech breakthroughs Levin in 2008 (Carl [Senator. Michigan] States News Service.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. Cellulosic ethanol has enormous potential for significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions but additional federal support is required to make this technology financially viable.

functioning as an imperfect ("clumsy") cartel and at times maintaining oil price well above estimated competitive levels. Oil Dependence Allows OPEC to Set and Sustain High Oil Prices. 2/28/07] 23 . May 5. Estimating the Energy Security Benefits of Reduced U. with 60% of reserves in the Persian Gulf region." [U. OPEC's production or pricing decisions can impose sustained economic costs over many years and can exacerbate. . largely in relation to cycles of growth in global import demand and OPEC market share.Now Econ Internals-Oil Prices Decreasing dependence is crucial to forcing an OPEC price decrease SENATE DEMOCRATIC COMMUNICATIONS CENTER (Congressional Documents and Publications. Partly as a consequence of this concentration of low cost reserves.S.S.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. Department of Energy. Oil Imports. or ameliorate. . The strength and influence of this cartel grows and declines. "Global oil reserves are concentrated in a volatile region of the world.S. 2008 ) U. Nonetheless. short-run supply shocks. OPEC producers are able to exercise market power.

. In the United States. Because the key to unlocking our energy future is ensuring that the innovation cycle continues at a rapid pace across the spectrum . we are aggressively funding programs .for both basic science and applied RandD . educational and business institutions are the best way to solve. At the same time. at our universities.Now General Solvency-Private Gov’t Coop Key Government inentives that encourage cooperation across government. alternative energy technologies. as well as establishing innovative programs to bring venture capital-sponsored entrepreneurs into our National Laboratories to help commercialize new technologies. we're actively pursing new approaches to getting beneficial technologies out into the marketplace quickly by employing a range of collaborative models.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. including cost-sharing partnerships and loan guarantees. deliver and use energy.in our government laboratories. governments have a critical role in funding the research that will help to lessen the world's dependence on fossil fuels and harness the tremendous power of clean. Bodman in 2008 (Samuel [US Secretary of Energy] Energy Department Documents and Publications May 13. 2008) First. and especially in the private sector. Crucial to breathrough tech.to try to incentivize the collaboration that is necessary between government and the private sector. 24 . the breakthroughs that truly change the nature of our thinking and fundamentally alter how we produce. . under President Bush's leadership.to hasten the type of transformational discoveries we need. What we're trying to do is look at this challenge in a new way -.

Our roads. Our infrastructure is crumbling. We need a national service plan to involve our youth and give them a stake in their country's future. . 2008) We are being strangled by our need for foreign oil. We have to take care of our veterans and rethink our place in the world and what we are willing to do to boost our armed services. We have to be vigilant and secure in our borders. water tanks. The Clinton and Bush administrations ignored the problem. their lives become a nightmare some will never escape.Now Leadership Internals-Energy Dependence US leadership is being crushed by dependence on foreign oil subsidies key to competitiveness McFeatters in 2008 (Ann [National Columnist. May 18. water mains and other structures that make our nation work are all in need of costly repairs. Every federal agency that deals with the environment needs to be overhauled. We have been foolish and profligate with energy. but we've gotten off track. Our military is stretched to the breaking point. We have to start from scratch. pipelines. Scripp Howard News Service] Plain Dealer (Cleveland). upgrading and replacement. We must create a rational plan for energy independence. workable.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. . We no longer have that luxury. We are still the most impressive nation on Earth. It's time to remember and insist our leaders remember. The United States stopped leading on this front. If they get sick or injured. Terrorism is a fact of life. We must get serious about environmental protection and cleanup and global warming. We've forgotten the sacrifices and hard work that made this nation great. The No Child Left Behind Act did not work. ports. Our students do not know as much and are not learning as much as those in many Third World countries. We must reform our immigration system without giving up our civil liberties or slamming our doors. We must invest in alternative energy sources. affordable universal health care system. We have to redouble our efforts to be innovative. respond to technological challenges and stay competitive in a changing world. We have the power to destroy the delicate ecosystem that makes life on Earth possible. The Clinton and Bush administrations stuck their heads in the sand. The public education system that made us the envy of the world is broken. sewers. and now we're in trouble. it must pick up the reins again. About 47 million Americans do not have health care. It is time to create a rational. bridges. 25 .

Economic Decline Causes War Mead. They aren't just bad for your 401(k). We stop playing "The Price is Right" and start up a new round of "Saving Private Ryan. will be the first to feel the pinch. and convinced the Japanese military that the country had no choice but to build an Asian empire. the biggest ever. How can this be? Think about the mother of all global meltdowns: the Great Depression that started in 1929. In other words. August 23. Let the world economy crash far enough. That's the thing about depressions.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. to be exact. The IMF-World Bank bailout of beleaguered Asian economies. bigger than the Mexican bailout. Global recession will lay off millions across the planet. But the biggest impact of the Depression on the United States--and on world history--wasn't money. It's the financial markets. such as Singapore. undermined the ability of moderates to oppose Joseph Stalin's power in Russia." 26 .S. 1998 Walter Russell Mead. then the market headed south big time. is urgent since the ongoing regional recession may indeed spread out to affect even the more stable American economy.S. Wages plummeted. The South Korea $50 billion bailout. and trigger a stoppage of production in all types of industries. despair will negate further efforts towards growth and induce more crimes and war. It was blood: World War II. Moving out of recession takes time and while the crisis continues.Now Impact Extensions-Economy A prolonged US recesssion will spread globally and cause conflicts that slaughter millions Business World 1/8/98 A global recession will make the 1929 depression in the US look like a sari-sari store closing down. thousands of banks and brokerages went bankrupt. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. stocks began to collapse in October. Senior Fellow for U. A global depression can kill more people at a shorter time than a protracted regional war. Industry-based nations with little or no agrarian economy. not the terrorist training camps that pose the biggest immediate threat to world peace. U. 1998 Forget suicide car bombers and Afghan fanatics. . There were similar horror stories worldwide. and the rules change. millions of people lost their jobs. especially South Korea. staged a rally. even if that meant war with the United States and Britain. hints how urgent the situation is. An American recession will surely trigger a global recession. . At the bottom. The Los Angeles Times. a protracted recession will make it harder to get out of it and may cause a depression. The Depression brought Adolf Hitler to power in Germany. the Dow Jones industrial average had lost 90% of its value.

crime. The US will depend increasingly on weapons exports to nurse its economy back to health. The US may depend more and more on the use of force and its superiority to get its ways internationally.). famine. North Korea. . Korea. war. Economic hardship is not the only cause of these social and political pathologies. global recession will spawn wars of all kinds. Regional conflicts in key flashpoints can easily erupt such as in the Middle East. But economic growth – and growth alone – creates the additional resources that make it possible to achieve such fundamental goals as higher living standards. Ethnic wars can easily escalate in the grapple for dwindling food stocks as in India-Pakistan-Afghanistan. They also undermine efforts to deal with such global problems as environmental pollution. This will further induce wars and conflicts which will aggravate US recession rather than solve it. and Taiwan. sickness. 27 . Lopez. but it aggravates all of them. AIDS. ethnic and religious hatred around the world. . Unemployment in the US will be the hardest to cope with since it may have very little capability for subsistence economy and its agrarian base is automated and controlled by a few. Food riots and the breakdown of law and order are possibilities.Now Impact Extensions-Economy Economic growth solves crime. In the Philippines. famine. Unemployment worldwide will be in the billions. AIDS and other plagues. Certainly. of economics @ Pace U.. The weapons industry may also grow rapidly because of the ensuing wars. the production and trafficking of drugs. Foreign Affairs Like the Great Depression. and in turn they feed back on economic development. 9/10/98 L/N What would it be like if global recession becomes full bloom? The results will be catastrophic. Leonard Silk Winter 1993 (prof. Ethiopia- Eritrea. Economic decline leads to wars of all kind Bernardo V. Arms escalation will have Primacy over food production if wars escalate. national and collective security. Yugoslavia. and all kinds of other bad things. splintered insurgency forces may take advantage of the economic drought to regroup and reemerge in the countryside. the current economic slump has fanned the fires of nationalist. Ethiopia and other African countries as first candidates. a healthier environment. CONTINUES. The riots and looting of stores in New York City in the late '70s because of a state-wide brownout hint of the type of anarchy in the cities.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. BusinessWorld. Growth will not solve all of these problems by itself. as in some Latin American countries. Famine can be triggered in key Third World nations with India.. Such looting in this most affluent nation is not impossible. Indonesia. and more liberal and open economies and societies.

threats of regional hegemony by renegade states. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First.S. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. 28 . On balance. such as nuclear proliferation. . this is the best long- term guiding principle and vision. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. U. Second. and low-level conflicts. including a global nuclear exchange. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. Finally. U. free markets. Spring Under the third option.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. Washington Quarterly. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers.democracy. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. and the rule of law. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -.S. the amazing. .Now Impact Extensions-Leadership Loss of US Leadership sparks multiple nuclear wars Khalilzad 95 Zalmay.

their own nuclear weapons. conflict. Iran and Iraq have. That danger would only increase if the United States withdrew from the world. the likelihood of their actual use would increase accordingly. . Brad Roberts) 1995. Without U. p. it could gain a significant capability to damage the U. increasing the risk of war between the Arabs and the Israelis. 29 . Given that total imports and exports are equal to a quarter of the U.S.Now Impact Extensions-Leadership Decline in US gurantees worldwide nuclear war Khalizhad in 95 Zalmay Khalilzad.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. The result would be a much more dangerous world in which many states possessed WMD capabilities. To preclude this development. and hostile hegemony in East Asia. withdrawal is likely to lead to an intensified struggle for regional domination. U.S. If this happened. and the PErsian Gulf would harm the economy of the United States even in the unlikely event that it was able to avoid involvement in major wars and conflicts. the weak oil-rich states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) would be unlikely to retain their independence.S. the Saudis might seek to acquire. Europe. Hegemony over the Persian Gulf by either Iran or Iraq would bring he rest of the Arab Middle East under its influence and domination because of the shift in the balance of power. investments in these regions. perhaps purchase. protection. exports and imports and jeopardizing U. would be harmed.60 In the Persian Gulf.S. perhaps reducing U. Already several rogue states such as North Korea and Iran are seeking nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. Higher oil prices would reduce the U. Turmoil in Asia and Europe wold force major economic readjustment in the United States. .S. Any country that gained hegemony would have vast economic resources at its disposal that could be used to build military capability as well as gain leverage over the United States and other oil-importing nations. The extension of instability. Israeli security problems would multiply and the peace process would be fundamentally undermined. including the United States.S. in the past. and world economies. the security of every nation in the world." Washington Quarterly Reader.S. the cost of necessary adjustments might be high. The higher level of turmoil in the world would also increase the likelihood of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and means of their delivery. standard of living. If either Iraq or Iran controlled the region that dominates the world supply of oil. "Losing the Moment? The United States and the World After the Cold War. Order and Disorder after the Cold War (ed. gross domestic product. both sought regional hegemony.

(Prager.) Yet its awfulness is only exceeded by its ubiquity.Now Impact Extensions-Leadership Loss of US leadershiop results in multiple scenarios for major war throughout the world Prager. it is ingratitude that characterizes much of the world's — including many Americans' — attitude toward the United States. Columbia University. It is American idealism coupled with its dominant economic and military power that alone prevents evil from drowning the world. followed by various forms of secular and religious totalitarianism. Japan would rearm and probably seek nuclear weapons to counter emboldened Korea and China.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. August 31. http://www. . Vast unemployment and social dislocation would ensue. No one would come to Israel's aid when Iran and other Muslim states attempted to destroy that country. Fellow. Law. 2004. Think about it. Ph.com/0804/prager1. No one would come to South Korea's aid as North Korea invaded and probably prevailed over South Korea. making it a formidable Stalinist force in East Asia.asp. . including inside Europe — as its only real opposition disappeared.jewishworldreview. Dennis. In fact. to leftist billionaires like George Soros — do not understand this. 30 . The many fools of the Left who devote their lives to curbing American power — from those who manage editorial pages and the news media. 2004. Russia would probably recommence imposing its will on its neighbors. to the academics who warn generations of students against American power. Cruelty and economic depression would dominate the planet. School of International Affairs. No one would stop the Chinese from conquering Taiwan. Islamic terrorism would increase exponentially — everywhere. “This Year’s Ingrate of the Year Award Goes To…” Jewish World Review. Pepperdine University.D. Without America: The world would collapse into economic and moral chaos.

but a free market in everything – enriched uranium. perhaps. anger and fear would hang over our public life for a generation.scale attacks would pull at the already-fragile tissue of trust that binds us to our leadership and destroy the trust we have in one another. and by the time fear and paranoia settled deep in our bones. 31 . our onetime fiends. . in short order. Canadian scholar. And if the institutions of our democracy were unable to protect us from our enemies.will mean the death of democracy.the detonation of a radiological or dirty bomb.ksg. We have a history of lynching in this country. killing our former neighbors. Once the zones of devastation were cordoned off and the bodies buried. We have the best of reasons to fear the fire next time. living in a national-security state on continuous alert.harvard.ytm_050204. We would endure.Now Impact Extensions-Terrorism Another major terror attack leads to worldwide war Ignatieff 2004 [Michael Ignatieff. melancholy. with sealed borders." New York Times Magazine. An attack of this sort is already in the realm of possibility. .but Americans will not forgive a second one. was a conventional attack. Any of these events could cause death.. devastation and panic on a scale that would make 9/11 seem like a pale prelude.. constant identity checks and permanent detention camps for dissidents and aliens. 11. or a low-yield nuclear device or a chemical strike in a subway. we might find ourselves. The recipes for making ultimate weapons are on the Internet. but we would no longer recognize ourselves. After such an attack. while torture might reappear in our interrogation cells. A democracy can allow its leaders one fatal mistake -.<take> taking the law into our own hands. a pall of mourning. Sept.edu/news/oped. we might go even further.and that's what 9/11 looks like to many observers -.htm Consider the consequences of a second major attack on the mainland United States . ricin. for all its horror. anthrax -. and unless we shut down these markets. Liberal Member of Parliament in the Canadian House of Commons.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. A succession of large . The worst of it is that government would not have to impose tyranny on a cowed populace. Democracies live by free markets. Our constitutional rights might disappear from our courts. We would demand it for our own protection. we might repeat the worst episodes from our past. We would survive. doomsday will be for sale. "Lesser Evils. but we would lose our identity as free peoples. Armageddon is being privatized. May 2 2004] http://www. That is what defeat in a war on terror looks like. and the materiel required is available for the right price.

Now Impact Extensions-Terrorism Terrrorists will relentlessly attack the US we must search out and kill them Epstein 2005. win the "hearts and minds" of angry Muslims by heaping public affection on Islam. by shutting down Guantanamo. All of this evades one blatant truth: the hatred being heaped on America is irrational and undeserved." Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. and routinely tortures and executes peaceful dissenters." writes a "New York Times" columnist." We must. We face. They do not seek respect for the rights of the individual (Muslim or non-Muslim). and pursuit of worldly pleasures as the height of depravity. Consider the issue of treatment of POWs. is a major cause of anti-American terrorism. . So-called Muslim opinion is not the unanimous and just consensus that its seekers pretend. . keeps them in unspeakable poverty. "We have become the most hated nation in the world.s_iv_ctrl=1021) This is the latest example of the apologies and hand-wringing that occur anytime there is any widespread display of Muslim anger. Jr. These people oppose us not because of any legitimate grievances against America." Muslim anger over America's support of Israel. a crisis of "Muslim opinion.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. but because they are steeped in a fundamentalist interpretation of their religion-- one that views America's freedom. Ted Kennedy lamented. .. by being more "evenhanded" between free Israel and the terrorist Palestinian Authority--and certainly by avoiding any new military action in the Muslim world. as for the rest. prosperity. It is the irrational and unjust opinion of the world's worst Muslims: Islamists and their legions of "moderate" supporters and sympathizers. If we fail to win over "Muslim opinion. Yet these same Muslims are silent about the summary convictions and torture--real torture. (Alex.aynrand. "Muslim Opinion Be Damned. with electric drills and vats of acid--that are official policy and daily practice throughout the Middle East. "Whatever one's views on the [Iraq] war. 2005. in which the United States is accused of not being "hard enough" on Israel--a free nation with laws that protect all citizens. we are told. the bitter anger that it has provoked among Muslims around the world. these commentators say. In the case of our militant enemies. the biggest problem facing America today is the fact that many Muslims are mad at us. Yet "Muslim opinion" reveres the Palestinian Authority. . Sept 12. "thoughtful Americans need to consider . we must kill or demoralize them-- especially those regimes that support terrorism and fuel the Islamist movement. they seek a world in which the rights of all are sacrificed to the dictates of Islam. trying to kill Americans. a brutal dictatorship that deprives Palestinians of every basic freedom. Jew and Arab alike--for Israel's supposed mistreatment of Palestinians. we will drive even more to become terrorists. http://www. Fellow at the Ayn Rand Institute. we must politically ignore them and intellectually CONTINUED>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 32 . The proper response to Islamists and their supporters is to identify them as our ideological and political enemies--and dispense justice accordingly.org/site/News2?pa. Or consider "Muslim opinion" over the United States' handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." we are told. as a result of this disastrous policy in the prisons. To listen to most of our foreign- policy commentators. Many Muslims are up in arms about the treatment of prisoners of war in Iraq and at Guantanamo--many of whom were captured on battlefields. they say.." In response to Abu Ghraib.

sacrificing American soldiers to save Iraqi civilians and mosques. Such a policy would make us safe." Such measures have rewarded our enemy for waging physical and spiritual war against us. Iran--he has sought their "cooperation" and even cast some as "coalition partners. and emboldens our enemies." they have learned. but redouble its efforts to buy your love. "Condemn America. has taken the opposite approach to "Muslim opinion": appeasement. not with appeasement. most notably. he has appealed to their sensibilities and met their demands--e. like most politicians and intellectuals. Every concession to angry Muslim mobs gives hope to the Islamist cause.Now Impact Extensions-Terrorism CONTINUED>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> discredit them. They should begin by declaring that militant groups and states that threaten anti-Western violence in response to free speech will be met. 11." "Attack America via terrorist proxy. but with destruction.. President Bush. . and embolden the better Muslims to support our ideals and emulate our ways. Instead of identifying anti-American Muslims as ideological enemies to be discredited. Instead of seeking to crush the Islamists by defeating the causes they fight for--such as Islamic world domination and the destruction of Israel--he has appeased those causes." Every attempt to appease "Muslim opinion" preserves. expose Islamic anti-Americanism as irrational and immoral.g. Instead of destroying terrorist regimes that wage war against the West--including. promotes. 33 . Every day we allow terrorist regimes to exist gives their minions time to execute the next Sept.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. America needs honest leadership with the courage to identify and defeat our enemies--"Muslim opinion" be damned. while proudly arguing for the superiority of Americanism. "and America will neither blame you nor destroy you. . declaring Islam a "great religion" and rewarding the Palestinian terrorist Jihad with a promised Palestinian state. "and American leaders will praise your ideals and meet your demands." terrorist states and movements have been taught.

At Indian Point. . Pregnant women would spontaneously abort or give birth to horribly deformed offspring. Spiritually. Evacuation would be impossible. leukemias. From the Earth Island Journal.org A terrorist assault at Indian Point could yield three infernal fireballs of molten radioactive lava burning through the earth and into the aquifer and the river. California cut its electric consumption by some 15 percent. Within a year. 2002 Harvey Wasserman. the US could cheaply replace virtually all the reactors with increased efficiency. Now that we are at war. depositing relentless genetic poisons that would kill forever. Yet. where thousands of farm and wild animals died in heaps. Heart attacks. if not millions. diarrhea and incontinence.000 Soviet draftees forced through Chernobyl's seething remains in a futile attempt to clean it up are still dying from their exposure. lymphomas. Ghastly sores. but thousands would die trying. Who would volunteer for such an American task force? The immediate damage from an Indian Point attack (or a domestic accident) would render all five boroughs of New York City an apocalyptic wasteland. they would blast gigantic billows of horribly radioactive steam into the atmosphere. hair loss. Thousands of square miles would be saturated with the most lethal clouds ever created. sterility and impotence. asthma and blindness would afflict hundreds of thousands. Emphysema.earthisland. this is what could be happening as you read this. the ticking reactor bombs that could obliterate the very core of our life and of all future generations must be shut down 34 . ulcerations and burns would afflict the skin of millions. Striking water. www. . More than 800. This is what we missed by a mere 40 miles on September 11. nausea. our nation would never recover. Since its deregulation crisis. as the terror escalates. There are 103 of these potential Bombs of the Apocalypse operating in the US. As at Three Mile Island. Do we take this war seriously? Are we committed to the survival of our nation? If so. weeks and years. Greenpeace. natural ecosystems would be permanently and irrevocably destroyed. Infants and small children would quickly die en masse. Congress is fast-tracking the extension of the Price-Anderson Act. Attempts to quench the fires would be futile. Then comes the wave of cancers. stroke and multiple organ failure would kill thousands on the spot. financially and ecologically.Now Impact Extensions-Terrorism A single terrorist attack would devastate the world’s economy and ecosystem Wasserman. They generate a mere 8 percent of our total energy. inability to eat or drink or swallow. the molten cores would burn uncontrolled for days. a form of legal immunity that protects reactor operators from liability in case of a meltdown or terrorist attack. psychologically. tumors and hellish diseases for which new names will have to be invented.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. rashes.

. and creates such communities of interest among great powers. After all. Associate Professor of National Security Studies at the U. Biddle.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. that these tensions are more apparent than real. rather than driving them apart or spurring competition among them. a series of such attacks (or worse) could do greater damage to American economic growth than would the elevated defense expenditures needed to prevent them. . some may argue that terrorism does so much damage to economies. AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY AFTER 9/11: AN ASSESSMENT April 2005) By contrast. 35 .Now Impact Extensions-Terrorism Terrorism would crush the economy Biddle 2005 (Stephen D.S. And terrorism threatens every great power. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. this common threat could in theory drive the great powers together in opposition to Islamist fundamentalism.73 if so. the 9/11 attackers claim to have inflicted $1 trillion in economic damage on the United States.

tides or ocean currents.S.5 million in federal funding for research and development to help advance the viability and cost-competitiveness of advanced water power systems. Using environmentally responsible technologies. DOE Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. industry and universities to develop innovative and effective technologies capable of harnessing water power energy resources. renewable energy to further our energy security and help meet the President's goal to stop greenhouse gas emissions growth by 2025. including ocean wave. Department of Energy (DOE) has announced up to $7. DOE plans to award industry-led partnerships to research. DC . the U. free flowing water in rivers.As part of the Bush Administration's ongoing commitment to invest in clean energy technologies to meet growing energy demand while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. develop and/or field test advanced water power technologies to further the President's Advanced Energy Initiative. the FOA seeks to advance water research and development projects in support of water power technology. current and other water-based resources. "The U.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. "Water covers more than 70 percent of the Earth's surface. May 5. lower cost." Andy Karsner. 36 . . which dramatically increases clean-energy research funding to develop cleaner.Now Non-Uniques-Increasing Incentives Now DOE increasing water power subsidies now Scoggins in 2008 (Jennifer [DOE Public Affairs Officer] Energy Department Documents and Publications. and more reliable alternative energy sources. and other water resources to advance the Administration's comprehensive energy strategy and provide clean and reliable power in the United States. ." Through public-private partnerships. said. university or national laboratory partner and a minimum 50 percent non-federal cost share is required. we have a tremendous opportunity to harness energy produced from ocean waves. Department of Energy is aggressively pursuing the development of next-generation technologies that are capable of increasing the use of clean.S. DOE seeks partnerships with U.S. 2008) WASHINGTON. Successful applicants will be required to develop collaborative project teams involving at least one other industry. tidal. Through this Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA).

and speed the bankruptcy of the transportation trust fund. Since then. not on the urgent need to reduce the nation's overconsumption of imported oil. Paul Tsongas in his 1992 presidential bid. family anywhere from $0 to $70 over the course of the summer. the value of the dollar and the well-being of the U. not the nation's wasteful use of energy. depending on whose estimate you use. Consequently. New Jersey and Connecticut. The last serious presidential candidate to propose raising gas taxes to limit consumption and fund alternative energy research and mass transit was Sen. His campaign ended in the Michigan primary. and competition from China and India for scarce resources.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. So what have our policy responses been to this challenge? Over the past three decades. economy. Americans have been in a permanent state of denial about the dangers that our energy profligacy has created for our economy and environment. Most are blaming greedy oil companies and commodity speculators for high prices. growing consumption. Proposals to suspend state gas or petroleum taxes have circulated in the legislatures of New York. but the health of the world's climate as well. Leadership now is crucial to preserving US competitiveness Yaro in 2008 (Robert [President of the Regional Plan Association] Hartford Courant.S. political leaders are looking for scapegoats. We now know that our excess fuel consumption is undermining not only our national defense. competitiveness and the success of global efforts to manage climate change. What America and the region really need is leadership.Now AT-SQ Incentives Solve All current alternative energy incentives are jokes.responses based largely on results of focus groups. 37 . to the mess that is our national energy policy. already expected to move into deficit by the end of 2009. .S. not real solutions. the nation's energy supply has gone from one-third to two-thirds reliant on foreign oil. Presidents and Congresses from both parties can fairly share the blame for ducking this issue and continuing to pander to voters instead of proposing real solutions. They are aimed at lining the pockets of home state interest groups and won’t decrease consumption. Since then. America's energy and tax policies have been stuck in the 1950s. This "holiday" will save the average U. With oil hovering around $120 per barrel and gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon. when voters resoundingly rejected his proposed 50-cent-a-gallon gas tax increase. not pandering on an issue that is fundamental to the nation's future security. when we were the world's largest petroleum exporter. The bipartisan failure of leadership on this issue reached a new level this month with the announcement that presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was joining John McCain in calling for a "gas tax holiday" for the summer. total vehicle-miles traveled have burgeoned. 2008) It's now been 35 years since the first Arab oil embargo provided America with a wake-up call about the dangers associated with the nation's over-reliance on oil imports from countries that don't really like us. It won't do a thing to focus the nation on what we really need: national energy and related tax policies designed to reduce oil consumption and oil imports and put us on the track to an alternative energy future. cars and trucks have gotten larger and less fuel efficient. May 11. This isn't just a national issue. we've gotten only gauzy promises for increased ethanol production or energy independence from both Republican and Democratic candidates . and we have taken virtually no steps to develop alternative fuels or alternatives to ever-longer commutes on increasingly crowded highways. instead of the largest importer that we are today. .

oil analyst for Oppenheimer and Company describes the oil market as "a farce. Mr. 2008) The President and CEO of Marathon Oil recently said. speculation affects the price of oil because it affects the price of everything we trade. in fact. 38 . a financial market analyst. oil analyst for Citigroup. Dr. Fadel Gheit. prices get distorted and stop reflecting true supply and demand. . and it won't shut down unless and until responsible governments step in. . A speculative bubble guarantees that oil prices will continue to rise." At the joint hearing on the effects of speculation we held last December. testified. It would be amazing if oil somehow escaped this effect.Now AT-Oil Supplies OK a/t oil supplies good.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. As we have all too often seen in recent years. deliver. "Of course financial trading." "The speculators have seized control and it's basically a free-for- all. . or transfer the commodity. more consistent with lower price levels. Tim Evans. May 12." Mr. "There is a bubble in oil prices." In January of this year. when speculation grows so large that it has a major impact on the market. not the trading strategies of speculators who only are in the market to make a profit by the buying and selling of paper contracts with no intent to actually purchase. Levin in 2008 (Carl [Senator. It has to be speculation on the futures market that is fueling this. Edward Krapels. .It’s not a question of total oil supply. a global gambling hall." A fair price for a commodity is a price that accurately reflects the forces of supply and demand for the commodity. "$100 oil isn't justified by the physical demand in the market. as oil hit $100 barrel." Dr. Michigan] States News Service. wrote "the larger supply and demand fundamentals do not support a further rise and are. Krapels added that as a result of this speculation.

May 12. Traders are trading contracts for future delivery of oil in record amounts. In global markets. instead they buy and sell contracts for crude oil just to make a profit from the changing prices. Michigan] States News Service. India. [PDF] Not surprisingly. 2008) Besides the weak dollar. While we can't do much about some causes of sky high gas prices. Speculators in the oil market do not intend to use crude oil. has contributed to price increases. from 500. the combination of increasing demand from developing countries. to about 3 million contracts now. helped increase the price of oil to a level far above the price that is justified by the traditional forces of supply and demand. and have not been fully reliable suppliers. .000 outstanding contracts in 2001. [Chart 3]. 39 . while holdings of non-speculative futures and options is up but 3 times. The number of futures and options contracts held by speculators has gone from around 100. . Growing demand for oil and gas in China. Overall. For example. there are other factors at work that account for soaring energy prices. increased 3rd world demand and rampant future speculation guarantee that prices will continue to spike Levin in 2008 (Carl [Senator. the amount of trading of futures and options in oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange has risen six-fold in recent years. which is a major oil producing country. in Nigeria. and other developing countries is contributing to an overall increase in global demand for crude oil. in fact. [PDF] Much of this increase in trading of futures has been due to speculation. a number of causes can be addressed. this massive speculation that the price of oil will increase has. to 1. many oil producing countries are politically unstable. [Chart 1].Now AT-Oil Supplies OK Currency weakness. for several years tribal gangs have been sabotaging production and pipelines.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. Some are beyond our control. creating a paper demand that is driving up prices and increasing price volatility solely to take a profit. others we can do something about. coupled with a variety of political problems in supplier countries. for example. [PDF] There is now 12 times as many speculative holdings as there was in 2001.2 million contracts currently held by speculators. which was 20% of the total number of outstanding contracts.000 contracts in 2001. which represents almost 40% of the outstanding futures and options contracts in oil on NYMEX [Chart 2]. Another key factor in price spikes of energy is rampant speculation in the energy markets. On the supply side.

Now is the window for investments that provide long term relief The Charleston post and Courier in 2008 (April 23.so far. chief of renewable-energy research at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in Berkeley.enough to power 2.000 megawatts in the next decade . meanwhile. In a related development.51 per gallon. like the economics of other goods. the Golden State's generally bright climate ("sunny California") makes it a natural for solar power.4 billion in transmission lines" for wind power. That's a high price to pay. solar and even an expansion of nuclear energy impractical in this nation . But Ryan Wiser. Then again. to be funded by an estimated charge of $86 per Californian. continued elevation in the costs of fossil fuels inevitably lowers the cost barriers that have made wind. could provide long term relief. the financial incentive for alternative-energy development continues to soar. the U. solar and other non-oil energy economically viable for electricity generation is on clear display in Texas.3 billion price tag..enough power for about 1. But the emerging alternative-energy market." That's apparently true as of now. In another related development. the economics of energy.5 million homes. That initiative's $3." As the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported last week.S. . California. aims to increase the state's solar-power output by 3. Those lines will be funded by Texas electricity rate-payers over the next several years. which has passed California as the nation's top wind-power state. retail price of regular gasoline hit a record $3. at up to $320 each. told the Star-Telegram: "You get more bang for your buck from wind energy than from solar energy. However. . as rapidly ascending gas prices have demonstrated anew.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since.Now High Oil Prices=Now Key Time High oil prices providwe a unique opportunity for alternatives development. Calif. And just as the Lone Star State's frequently windy conditions and vast open spaces make it a natural for wind power. the state traditionally known as America's "oil patch. That rising need for making wind. services and commodities.150 megawatts of electricity from wind turbines . Yet it could ultimately prove a positive investment for residents of Texas.6 million homes. Alternative energy sources remain prohibitively expensive in many areas. making his state the national leader in trying to convert energy from the sun into cost-efficient electricity. the Texas Legislature has approved a "Competitive Renewable Energy Zone" program that "will lead to the construction of $3 billion to $6. given a fair chance to reach its potential. 40 . The goal: motivating utility companies to produce another 5. has made a major commitment to solar power. Scientists and economists debate which state has made the best energy move. The spike in oil prices now inflicts financial hardships on Americans. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed the "Million Solar Roof Plan" into law in 2006. are subject to dramatic change.18 per barrel Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gov. 2008) The price of crude oil closed at a record $119.

former DOE advisor Melanie Kenderdine. But King notes that a bill adopted in January would set up a fund for clean energy research—including ARPA-E—using money from discontinued oil and gas subsidies. of course. Gajewski.Now AT-Trades off With DOE Research Claims that ARPA is duplicative are wrong. which. various legislative incarnations of the bill authorized annual appropriations anywhere from US $300 million to $1 billion. . which funds basic research across a broad array of fields. argues that little of that office’s research has energy technology applications.ieee.org/print/5484) Testifying at the first of many hearings on the ARPA-E bill. a former director of the division.” says William Happer. September 2007 http://www.spectrum. . It is funded independently from discontinued petroleum subsidies Adee in 2007 (Sarah [IEEE Editor] IEEE Forum.ieee. But House Science staffer Christopher King. even though the division relied on peer review of proposals. Started in 1977.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. says that the time from proposal to funding was sometimes as little as two months. it funded what Ryszard Gajewski calls the “infants and orphans” of energy research. now an associate director at the MIT Energy Initiative. will be crucial to ARPA-E’s success. The energy department once had an Advanced Energy Projects division. until it was abolished in 1998.spectrum. ARPA-E funding wouldn’t trade off with DOE funding. said that ARPA-E’s objective is not easy to distinguish from that of the DOE’s Office of Science. 41 . was the incubator for cutting-edge energy research. Where will that money come from? “I would guess that an ARPA-E will have to be funded at the expense of existing DOE programs. Since 2006.org/print/5484) Adequate funding. which DARPA does not do. September 2007 http://www. who worked on the ARPA-E legislation. Little DOE research has energy technology applications and its advanced tech funding was cut in 1998 Adee in 2007 (Sarah [IEEE Editor] IEEE Forum. who ran science programs at the DOE in the early 1990s.

and accidental-death rates and infant and maternal mortality (Figure 2-9) have fallen dramatically since the early 20th century. and its sustaining public support. Also responsible are the large-scale production. fuels the steady flow of knowledge and provides the mechanism for converting information into the products and services that create jobs and improve the quality of modern life. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. delivery. for example. pharmaceuticals. http://books.nap.php?record_id) One straightforward way to view the practical application of research is to compare US life expectancy (Figure 2-7) in 1900 (47.php?record_id) The visible products of research.24 Our cancer and heart-disease survival rates have improved (Figure 2-8). but it is essential to the future of the United States. All that activity. Maintaining that vast and complex enterprise during an age of competition and globalization is challenging. are made possible by a large enterprise mostly hidden from public view—fundamental and applied research. .edu/openbook. attributable to many factors.3 years)23 with that in 1999 (77 years). some as straightforward as the engineering of safe drinking-water supplies.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. saves $9 billion in health costs each year.edu/openbook.26 Medical research also has brought economic benefit. The development of lithium as a mental-health treatment. an intensively trained workforce. and a national infrastructure that provides risk capital to support the nation’s science and engineering innovation enterprise. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. and storage of nutritious foods and advances in diagnosis. and treatment methods. of course.25 Improvements in the nation’s health are. Medical research proves that long term research pays off. Treatment for testicular cancer has resulted in a 91% remission rate and annual savings of $166 million. medical devices. We cannot forsee the benefits NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.nap. http://books.27 42 . . however. Hip- fracture prevention in postmenopausal women at risk for osteoporosis saves $333 million annually.Now AT-NO Short Term Solvency Even if research has no immediate results it supports longterm discovery and industry NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.

. he estimates that the huge new chemical batteries could be out to market in as little as five years. regardless of the outcome. "Why not have a challenge like that. If all goes well. But that's only 12 years away from the statewide deadline to have 25 percent of our energy from renewable sources. Even with such a short timetable. . it has an aggregate effect Minneapolis Star Tribune May 5. Smyrl says it is good to challenge power companies to explore ways to sustain alternative energies. 2008 Smyrl will be watching to make sure recovering from that kind of pressure doesn't compromise the life or efficiency of the battery. that's a start.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. 43 ." he said. even if we only came in at half [12 percent].Now AT-Alternatives Fail Should force alternatives even if they fail.

Now AT-T You Sponsor Gov’t Research Arpa-e would be an independent agency reporting to the DOE and funding University and industry research Adee in 2007 (Sarah [IEEE Editor] IEEE Forum. Like DARPA. 44 .S. The agency is a svelte 240 employees within the DOD behemoth.spectrum. weather satellites. response to the Soviet Union’s launch of the Sputnik satellite. .ieee. .LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. Program managers will be given a great deal of autonomy to jump-start promising projects and terminate failing ones just as quickly.org/print/5484) DARPA—famously credited with helping develop the Internet. ARPA-E will fund both university and industry programs. The agency’s director will bypass all the usual protocols to report directly to the Secretary of Energy. September 2007 http://www. and GPS—was established in 1958 as part of the U. autonomous agency whose personnel will be replaced about every four years to discourage bureaucratic lethargy. Legislators envision ARPA-E as a similarly small.

Terrorism was first. and nearly equally. ranked “extremely important” by 45% of respondents. According to a Gallup poll. too.Now AT-Plan Unpopular Americans heart jobs. but presumably one can conclude that Americans are generally worried about jobs—if not for themselves then for their children and grandchildren.44 Polls.43 Only 35% say that now is a good time to find a high-quality job. the Gallup organization asked respondents what issues concerned them most. and education (32%). . only provide a snapshot of America’s thinking. One CBS-New York Times poll showed security leading economic issues by only 1%.edu/openbook. polls have indicated persistent concern not only about the war in Iraq and issues of terrorism but also. NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine. of course. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. health care (33%). 61% say that it is not. 83% percent of US investors say job outsourcing to foreign countries is currently hurting the investment climate “a lot” (61%) or “a little” (22%).41 another42 showed that our economy and job security are of slightly greater concern to respondents than are issues of national security and terrorism.php?record_id=11463&page=R1) Does the public truly see the challenge to our prosperity? In recent months. about jobs and the economy. Investors are worried. next came the economy (39%).nap. On the eve of the 2004 presidential election.45 45 . The numbers who are worried about outsourcing are second only to the numbers who are worried about the price of energy. . according to a July 2005 Gallup poll on investor concerns.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. http://books.

edu/openbook. The consequences could be long-lasting and severe. By the 1970s. http://books. typhoid fever. That in turn provided the market force that fueled the development of new. the Montreal Protocol began a global phase-out of CFC production. and airborne-particle measurement technologies also have helped us to monitor and mitigate unexpected environmental problems. Fortunately. nonflammable replacements for ammonia and other toxic refrigerants then in use.000 ozone molecules. Water- pollution controls have mitigated declines in wildlife populations. 46 . Frigidaire synthesized the world’s first chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). A single chlorine atom can destroy as many as 100.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since.30 In 1987. some of these problems have been the consequence of unexpected side-effects of technological advances. when indoor plumbing was rare. engineers discovered that adding lead to gasoline caused it to burn more smoothly and improved the efficiency of engines. and carbon monoxide emissions per automobile are 85% lower than in the 1970s. Those achievements have reduced overall automobile emissions by 31%. Parallel advances in petroleum refining and the adoption and improvement of catalytic converters increased engine efficiency and removed harmful byproducts from the combustion process. trademarked as Freon.nap. Although the results of CFC use provide an example of the unintended negative consequences of technology. However.28 and by the 1970s the danger was apparent. scientists identified a chain reaction that begins with CFCs and sunlight and ends with the production of chlorine atoms. it had become clear that CFCs contribute to losses in the atmosphere’s protective layer of ozone. wastewater often was dumped directly into streets and rivers. In 1974. Weather satellites. Waterborne diseases— cholera. including increased cancer rates and global warming.29 Refrigeration In the early 1920s. non-CFC refrigerants. . Water Quality Early in the 20th century. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future.php?record_id) Advances in our understanding of the environment have led to better systems to promote human health and the health of our planet. In 1928. in many cases additional technological understanding was able to overcome unintended consequences without forfeiting the underlying benefits.Now AT. the response demonstrates the influence of science in diagnosing problems and providing effective solutions.Science Bad Tech good for the environment and humans multiple proofs NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine. The widespread use of leaded gasoline resulted in harmful concentrations of lead in the air. scientists began working on nontoxic. global positioning systems. they did not predict the explosive growth of the automobile industry. New formulations developed by petrochemical researchers not requiring the use of lead have resulted in vastly reduced emissions and improved air quality (Figure 2-10). Automobiles and Gasoline In the 1920s. Research and engineering for modern sewage treatment and consequent improvements in water quality have dramatically affected public and environmental health. however. dysentery. and research into wetlands and riparian habitats has informed the process of engineering water supplies for our population. Unfortunately. . and diarrhea—were rampant and among the leading causes of death in the United States.

and the development of competence. science. It has also uncovered important principles for structuring learning experiences that enable people to use what they have learned in new settings. the processes of thinking and learning.edu/openbook.php?record_id) Today. http://books. The revolution in the study of the mind that has occurred in recent decades has important implications for education. Collaborative studies of the design and evaluation of learning environments being conducted by cognitive and developmental psychologists and educators are yielding new knowledge about the nature of learning and teaching in a variety of settings.nap. the neural processes that occur during thought and learning. and assessment from those generally found in schools today. 47 . literature. .Science Bad Science key to understanding human behavior NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine.36 A new theory of learning now coming into focus will lead to very different approaches to the design of curriculum.Now AT.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. including mathematics. teaching. and history. . an extraordinary scientific effort is being devoted to the mind and the brain. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. social studies. Research in the social sciences has increased understanding of the nature of competent performance and the principles of knowledge organization that underlie people’s abilities to solve problems in a wide variety of fields.

Advances in highway construction in turn fueled the automotive industry. Advances in agricultural biotechnology have further reduced soil erosion and water contamination because they have reduced the need for tilling and for use of pesticides. The dramatic increase in telephone calls per capita over the following decades was made possible by advances in cable bundling. and many in urban areas relied on trolleys and trams to get to work and market. Cellular-telephone technology and voice-over-Internet protocols have added even more communication options. In 1900. In 1900. The “persistent presence” that those devices make possible and the eventual widespread availability of wireless and broadband services will spawn another revolution in communication.31 Such improvements as conservation tillage.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since.edu/openbook. and in text. Since 1950. safety. over the Internet.Science Bad Tech Good.nap. and over-fertilization have reduced the amount of arable land by 20%.32 Most of us give little thought to the vast array of electrical appliances that surround us. Interoperability between systems makes it possible to use one device to communicate by telephone. At the same time. Transportation As workers left farms to move to cities. and reliability of aircraft spawned yet another global industry that spans commercial airline service and overnight package delivery. Radio and television revolutionized the mass media. http://books. but the Internet has provided altogether new ways of communicating. less than 10% of the nation was electrified. and cordless communication (Figure 2-13). it solves multiple scenarios for human misery and death and environmental destruction NAS in 2007 (National Academy of Sciences with National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Medicine. Urban sprawl. Today. At the beginning of the 21st century. transportation systems developed to get them to work and home again. The increasing speed. in pictures. Communication At the beginning of the 20th century slightly more than 1 million telephones were in use in the United States. Improvements attributable to declining mortality and better environmental monitoring are compounded by gains made possible by other advances in technology. and the ability to ship food across the country made it possible to keep those refrigerators stocked. However. touch- tone dialing. The result has been a general enhancement in the quality of life in the United States as viewed by most observers. desertification.5 billion people in 1950. . one-fourth of US households had a horse. in voice. injudicious application of mechanization also led to increased soil erosion. new R&D will be needed to Disaster Mitigation 48 . 20% of the world’s topsoil has been lost—much of it in developing countries. there were more than 300 million telephone communication devices and cellular telephone lines in the United States. now virtually every home in the United States is wired (Figure 2-11). Improvements in refrigeration put a refrigerator in virtually every home. have greatly reduced soil erosion caused by traditional plowing and have promoted the conservation of soil moisture and nutrients. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. .Now AT. The food supply for the world’s population of more than 6 billion people comes from a land area that is 80% of what was used to feed 2. fiber optics. which includes the use of sweep plows to undercut wheat stalks but leave roots in place.php?record_id) Agricultural Mechanization Advances in agriculture have vastly increased farm productivity and food production. Electrification and Household Appliances Advances in technology in the 20th century resulted in changes at home and in the workplace. more than 90% of US households own at least one car (Figure 2-12).

The introduction and use of energy-efficient products have enabled the US economy to grow by 126% since 1973 while energy use has increased by only 30% (Figure 2-14). . Resource reduction and recycling are expanding across the United States.34 Weather prediction. With the advent of hybrid automobiles. as hurricane Katrina in New Orleans demonstrated. especially in underserved areas or developing countries. but industrial consumption of electricity grew by only 11%. It also revealed the urgent need to use resources wisely. 49 . electrification.Science Bad CONTINUED>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Loma Prieta earthquake in central California caused 60 deaths and more than $6 billion in property damage. have instituted trash-reduction programs. Early-warning systems for tornadoes and tsunamis offer another avenue for reducing the effects of natural disasters—but only when coupled with effective on-the-ground dissemination. early warning is not enough—sound structural design and a coordinated human response are also essential. Earthquake engineering and related technologies now make possible quake-resistant skyscrapers in high-risk zones. even though its top swayed from side to side by more than 1 foot for more than a minute. Today’s cars use about 60% of the gasoline per mile driven that was used in 1972. Furthermore. Similarly. spurred by advances in recycling technologies. has helped mitigate losses from hurricanes. thanks to the speed differential between radio and seismic waves. this last step of getting a product implemented. and communication come together in coordinating responses to natural disasters.35 Those improvements in efficiency are the result of work in a broad spectrum of science and engineering fields. but occupants of the 49-story Transamerica Pyramid building in San Francisco were unharmed. transportation.LMDIT 2008 ARPA E Aff Addendum (___/___) Serving Utah Since. In the 1990s. .000 people—illustrating the impact of the better engineered building protection available in California. Industries are producing increasingly energy-efficient products. Energy Conservation The last century saw demonstrations of the influence of technology in every facet of our lives. As is the case for many technologies. After Loma Prieta. A US Geological Survey radio system increases safety for cleanup crews during aftershocks.Now Structural design. workers in Oakland were given almost a half hour notice of aftershocks 50 miles away. Many communities. can be the most difficult. enabled by satellites and advances in imaging technology. from refrigerators to automobiles. as was the building itself. manufacturing output in the United States expanded by 41%.33 In December 1988. an earthquake in Georgia in the former USSR of the same magnitude as Loma Prieta led to the deaths of 22. The 1989 AT. refrigerators today require one-third of the electricity that they needed 30 years ago. further gains are now being realized.