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SDI 08 -09 Malicious Lemons

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NUCLEAR WAR LEADS TO ICE AGE

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N/W -> ICE AGE


A nuclear war between just two countries using less than 1% of the world’s nuclear arsenal results in
rapid and long -lasting cooling
Robock Et. Al. 2007 (Alan Robock, Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University, Brian Toon and
Charles Bardeen, University of Colorado, Richard Turco, UCLA, Georgiy Stenchikov, Rutgers University, and Luke Oman, Johns
Hopkins University, “Climate Effects of a Regional Nuclear Conflict”, IPRC Climate, 2007.
<http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/iprc_climate_NW.pdf.>)

With support from the National Science Foundation, we studied the following scenario: A nuclear war between two countries in which
each country is using 50 Hiroshima -size (15 kilotons) weapons to attack the other’s most populated urban areas with populations that
could exceed 10 million. These 100 bombs represent less than 0.03% of the explosive power of the current nuclear arsenal worldwide.
In our 100 - weapon scenario, we estimate that five megatons of smoke would result from urban firestorms rising into the upper troposphere due to pyro -convection.
Direct fatalities due to fire and smoke would be comparable to those worldwide in World War II. Furthermore, the megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of long
-lived radionuclides would likely have to be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications. We also anticipate substantial
perturbations of global ozone. To investigate the climate response to this massive smoke injection, we conducted simulations with a
state -of -the -art general circulation model, ModelE from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which includes a module to
calculate the transport and removal of aerosol particles. Our experience with this model shows it simulates realistically the climate
response to large volcanic eruptions. Article continues. In the model, the black carbon particles in the aerosol layer are heated by
absorption of shortwave radiation. This heating induces vertical motions and the aerosols are lofted close to the top of the stratosphere,
much higher than is typical of weakly absorbing volcanic sulfate aerosols. As a result, the carbon aerosols have a very long residence
time and continue to affect surface climate for more than a decade. The mass e -folding time for the smoke is six years; for typical volcanic eruptions,
one year; and for tropospheric aerosols, one week. The global -average surface shortwave radiation in response to the aerosols decreases by up to 15 W/m2 (Figure 1).
Five years after the initial smoke injection, the global -average perturbation is still at –7 W/m2. This exceeds the maximum global -average surface cooling of –4 W/m2
following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, the largest of the 20th century. The cooling is also greater than the global average increase of 1.5 W/m2 at the
surface or 4 W/m2 at the tropopause for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The smoke cloud lowers surface temperature significantly (Figure 1).
(Stratospheric temperatures are also severely perturbed.) A global average surface cooling of –1.25°C persists for years. After a
decade, the cooling is still –0.5°C (Figure 1). The temperature changes are largest over land. …article continues…Precipitation recovers faster
than temperature, but both lag the forcing. For comparison, the global average net surface -shortwave forcing from a model simulation of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo
eruption is shown. 18 IPRC Climate, vol. 7, no. 1, 2007 most of the grain -growing regions, are several degrees cooler. As in the case with the earlier nuclear
winter calculations, large climatic effects are felt in regions far removed from the countries involved in the conflict. As a result of
Earth’s surface cooling, evapotranspiration slows and the global hydrological cycle is weakened, with global precipitation reduced by
about 10% (Figure 1). Although rainfall decreases mostly in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as observed after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, large areas on the
continents are also affected, including the Asian summer monsoon. The temperature, precipitation, and insolation changes would affect agriculture
greatly. For example, the growing season in some regions of North America and Europe are shortened by 10 to 20 days. Such a
reduction in growing season may completely eliminate crops that have insufficient time to reach maturity. And these reductions
continue for several years. To put the results in a larger historical context, the greatest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years, the 1815 Tambora eruption in
Indonesia, resulted in a “Year Without a Summer” in 1816 in the Northern Hemisphere. Killing frosts disrupted agriculture throughout the summer in New England and
led to significant emigration. In Europe, the wet cold summer caused a widespread harvest failure, resulting in famines and economic
collapse. That climatic disruption only lasted one year. Because the black carbon aerosols in the current nuclear simulation are lofted
into the upper stratosphere where their residence time is close to a decade, the climatic effects of the fivemegaton case are
significantly greater and more persistent than those following the Tambora eruption.
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N/W -> ICE AGE

Nuclear war triggers rapid climate cooling and global devastation


Davidson 06 (Keay Davidson, Chronicle Science Writer, “Small Nuclear War Could Severely Cool the Planet”. San Francisco
Chronicle 12 Dec. 2006. <http://www.sfgate.com/cgi -bin/article/article?f -/c/a/2006/12/12/MNGE5MTRI31.DTL>).

A regional nuclear war between Third World nations could trigger planetwide cooling that would likely ravage agriculture and kill
millions of people, scientists reported Monday. For many years, Western military scientists and strategists have assumed that the
damage from small -scale regional nuclear wars would be limited to continents on which they occurred. Now, in a revamping of the
"nuclear winter" debate of the 1980s, new and far more sophisticated computer models show that even these little nuclear wars could
create global devastation. Scientists, reporting their findings at the American Geophysical Conference in San Francisco, said vast
urban firestorms ignited by war would send thick, dark clouds into the upper atmosphere, blocking the sun's rays and cooling much of
the planet, with severe climatic and agricultural results. The soot might remain in the upper atmosphere for up to a decade. "All hell
would break loose," said Prof. Richard Turco of UCLA's department of atmospheric and ocean sciences. In some places, the planet
could cool more than it did during the so -called Little Ice Age of the 17th century, when glaciers advanced over much of northern
Europe, said Alan Robock of Rutgers University, speaking Monday at a news conference at the Moscone Center, where the conference
is being held this week. "It would be very difficult for agriculture," he said. The scientists' research is a new twist on the nuclear winter hypothesis, which
attracted attention in the early 1980s. Back then, planetary scientist Carl Sagan and others warned that a much larger nuclear war between the United States and Soviet
Union would lead to extensive atmospheric cooling and agricultural failure on a much greater scale and kill far more people. The hypothesis sparked widespread
scientific and political controversy. It faded from public attention toward the end of the Cold War, after which many U.S. strategists
concluded that major nuclear wars that threatened all civilization were improbable. But that judgment was premature, because of the
recent emergence of small - and medium -sized nations that either have or are trying to develop nuclear weapons, the scientists
warned. They said that worldwide, a regional nuclear war could kill tens of millions of people, partly because even a small number of
nuclear blasts could generate enough smoke to trigger a global climate change. The nuclear explosions and smoke could also damage the ozone
layer in the upper atmosphere, they said. That layer shields Earth's surface from cancer -causing radiation from the sun. Initially, about 20 percent of the soot would be
washed out of the atmosphere by rainfall, said Turco, who was one of the pioneers of the original nuclear winter hypothesis. However, much of the rest of the soot
would rise skyward and warm as it was baked by the sun. That warming would make the soot more buoyant and force it even higher into the sky until it penetrated the
stratosphere - - just above the tops of thunderclouds - - where high -speed winds would quickly spread the soot throughout the atmosphere, Turco and his colleagues
said. The climatic effects of the regional nuclear wars were computer -modeled by Turco and colleagues including another veteran nuclear winter theorist, Owen Brian
Toon, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Colorado; his student colleague, Charles Bardeen; Robock; scientist Georgi Stenchikov, also of Rutgers; and Luke
Oman of Johns Hopkins University. Alluding to the spread of nuclear weapons to medium -sized nations such as North Korea, Turco said: "The only way to solve this
problem is through diplomacy. Force won't do it. We need to be looking forward to complete disarmament of nuclear weapons."
SDI 08 -09 Malicious Lemons
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N/W -> ICE AGE

Even a minor terrorist attack with nuclear weapons could plunge the planet into an unprecedented
nuclear winter
CNN News 06 (CNN News citing a report by the Geophusical Union in San Francisco, 12 Dec. 2006. <
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Technology/Story?id -2720173&page -1>)
The decline of the Soviet Union may have left many Americans feeling safer from nuclear war, but a disturbing new study argues that
an attack by terrorists sponsored by a small nuclear state could be just as lethal. Nuclear wasteland Scientists say that even a small
nuclear war, between small countries or carried out by terrorists could have global repercussions. Such an attack "could generate
casualties comparable to those once predicted for a full -scale nuclear exchange in a superpower conflict," says the report, presented
Monday during the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. Furthermore, Americans should not think of
themselves as isolated from potential small -scale, regional nuclear conflicts in such distant areas as the Middle East or Asia. The
impact of such an encounter would be global, probably plunging the planet into a "nuclear winter" and blanketing wide areas of the
world with radioactive fallout. The report, which cautions that there are many uncertainties in its own conclusions, was produced by a
team of scientists who have been long active in studying the consequences of nuclear war. The study assumes that weapons used by
terrorists, or smaller states, would be much smaller than those available to the superpowers, probably on the scale of those dropped on
Japan during World War II. But the results would be catastrophic because the weapons would most likely be targeted at major cities.
"The current combination of nuclear proliferation, political instability, and urban demographics forms perhaps the greatest danger to
the stability of society since the dawn of humanity," Brian Toon of the University of Colorado in Boulder told a press conference prior
to the presentation. The number of countries known to have nuclear weapons has grown to eight, but as many as 40 have some fissionable material and could
produce bombs fairly quickly, the scientists said, basing their conclusions partly on studies by the National Academy of Sciences, the Department of Defense, and their
own years -long research. Toon said Japan, for example, has enough nuclear material on hand to produce 20,000 weapons, and "most think they could do it in weeks."
Many of the conclusions are based on the consequences of two nations, each with 50 bombs, delivering their full complement of weapons on each other. That's not a
hypothetical figure, they suggested, because both India and Pakistan are believed to have at least that many weapons. So what would happen if they had at it? About
20 million persons in that area would die, the scientists concluded. But the weapons would send up such a plume of smoke that the
upper atmosphere would become opaque, blocking out so much solar radiation that temperatures around the world would plummet.
"You would have a global climate change unprecedented in human history," said Alan Robock, associated director of the Center
for Environmental Prediction at Rutgers Cook College and a member of the research team. "It would instantaneously be colder than
the little ice age." There would be shorter growing seasons, less rain, less sun, and starvation around the world.
SDI 08 -09 Malicious Lemons
Ice Age cometh 5/8
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N/W -> ICE AGE

Small nuclear skirmishes cause rapid global cooling and famine for billions
Oman Et. Al. 07 (G. Oman, 1Department of Environmental Sciences Rutgers University, A. Robock1, 1Department of Environmental Sciences Rutgers
University, L. Stenchikov1, 1Department of Environmental Sciences Rutgers University, O. B. Toon2, 2Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and
Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado, C. Bardeen2, 2Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Laboratory for
Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado and R. P. Turco3, 3Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California, “Climatic
consequences of regional nuclear conflicts” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Published: 19 April 2007. < http://www.atmos -chem -phys.net/7/2003/2007/acp -7
-2003 -2007.pdf.>)

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the
climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima -size bombs (less than
0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and
reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting
because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts
it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous
“nuclear winter” simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes are
more long -lasting because the older models did not adequately represent the stratospheric plume rise.
Introduction The casualties from the direct effects of blast, radioactivity, and fires resulting from the massive use of nuclear weapons
by the superpowers would be so catastrophic that we avoided such a tragedy for the first four decades after the invention of nuclear
weapons. The realization, based on research conducted jointly by Western and Soviet scientists (Crutzen and Birks, 1982; Aleksandrov
and Stenchikov, 1983; Turco et al., 1983, 1990; Robock, 1984; Pittock et al., 1986; Harwell and Hutchinson, 1986; Sagan and Turco,
1990), that the climatic consequences, and indirect effects of the collapse of society, would be so severe that the ensuing nuclear
winter would produce famine for billions of people far from the tar - Correspondence to: A. Robock (robock@envsci.rutgers.edu)
get zones, may have been an important factor in the end of the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union (Robock,
1989). …article continues…A global average surface cooling of −1.25 C persists for years, and after a decade the cooling is still −0.5
C (Fig. 3). The temperature changes are largest over land. A map of the temperature change for the Northern Hemisphere summer one
year after the smoke injection is shown in Fig. 5. A cooling of several degrees occurs over large areas of North America and Eurasia,
including most of the grain -growing regions. As in the case with nuclear winter calculations, large climatic effects would occur in
regions far removed from the target areas or the countries involved in the conflict. Northern Hemisphere winter temperature changes
are also large (Fig. 6). Snow feedbacks enhance and prolong the climate response, as seen in areas of snow and sea ice changes - 22 -
486 487 Figure 4. …article continues… As a result of the cooling of the Earth’s surface, evapotranspiration is reduced and the global
hydrological cycle is weakened. The resulting global precipitation is reduced by about 10% (Fig. 3). Figure 8 shows maps of
precipitation change for the Northern Hemisphere summer one year after the smoke injection.

N/W -> ICE AGE


Smoke from a nuclear exchange leads to severe agricultural shifts as temperatures plummet below
freezing across the northern hemisphere
Robock et. Al. 2007 (Alan Robock, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, Luke Oman, Department of Earth
and Planetary Sciences at Johns Hopkins University, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers
University, “NUCLEAR WINTER REVISITED WITH A MODERN CLIMATE MODEL AND CURRENT NUCLEAR ARSENALS:
STILL CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES” Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmosphere, Apr. 2007, <
http://www.envsci.rutgers.edu/~gera/nwinter/nw6accepted.pdf>)

Twenty years ago, the results of climate model simulations of the response to smoke and dust from a massive nuclear exchange
between the superpowers could be summarized as “nuclear winter,” with rapid temperature, precipitation, and insolation drops at the
surface that would threaten global agriculture for at least a year. The global nuclear arsenal has fallen by a factor of three since then,
but there has been an expansion of the number of nuclear weapons states, with additional states trying to develop nuclear arsenals. We
SDI 08 -09 Malicious Lemons
Ice Age cometh 6/8
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use a modern climate model to re -examine the climate response to a range of nuclear wars, producing 50 and 150 Tg of smoke,
using moderate, and large portions of the current global arsenal, and find that there would be significant climatic responses to all the
scenarios….article continues…The effects of the smoke cloud on surface temperature are extremely large (Fig. 2). Stratospheric
temperatures are also severely perturbed (Fig. 3). A global average surface cooling of –7°C to –8°C persists for years, and after a
decade the cooling is still –4°C (Fig. 2). Considering that the global average cooling at the depth of the last ice age 18,000 yr ago was
about –5°C, this would be a climate change unprecedented in speed and amplitude in the history of the human race. The temperature
changes are largest over land. Maps of the temperature changes for the Northern Hemisphere summers for the year of smoke injection
(Year 0) and the next year (Year 1) are shown in Fig. 4. Cooling of more than –20°C occurs over large areas of North America and of
more than –30°C over much of Eurasia, including all agricultural regions. There are also large temperature changes in the tropics and
over Southern Hemisphere continents. Large climatic effects would occur in regions far removed from the target areas or the
countries involved in the conflict. As examples of the actual temperature changes in important grain -growing regions, we have
plotted the time series of daily minimum air temperature for grid points in Iowa, United States, at 42°N, 95°W, and in Ukraine at
50°N, 30°E (Fig. 5). For both locations (shown in Fig. 4), minimum temperatures rapidly plummet below freezing and stay
there for more than a year. In Ukraine, they stay below freezing for more than two years. Clearly, this would have agricultural
implications. As a result of the cooling of the Earth’s surface, evapotranspiration is reduced and the global hydrological cycle is
weakened. In addition, Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulations collapse, because the driving continent -ocean
temperature gradient does not develop. The resulting global precipitation is reduced by about 45%.
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Ice Age cometh 7/8
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80S IMPACT TO N/W


A nuclear winter destroys civilization’s biological support systems and imminent extinction
Ehrlich Et. Al. 1983 (Ehrlich PR, Harte J, Harwell MA, Raven PH, Sagan C, Woodwell GM, Berry J, Ayensu ES, Ehrlich AH,
Eisner T, “Long -term biological consequences of nuclear war” Pub Med, < http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6658451?ordinalpos
-1&itool -EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum>)

Subfreezing temperatures, low light levels, and high doses of ionizing and ultraviolet radiation extending for many months after a
large -scale nuclear war could destroy the biological support systems of civilization, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. Productivity
in natural and agricultural ecosystems could be severely restricted for a year or more. Postwar survivors would face starvation as well
as freezing conditions in the dark and be exposed to near -lethal doses of radiation. If, as now seems possible, the Southern
Hemisphere were affected also, global disruption of the biosphere could ensue. In any event, there would be severe consequences,
even in the areas not affected directly, because of the interdependence of the world economy. In either case the extinction of a large
fraction of the Earth's animals, plants, and microorganisms seems possible. The population size of Homo sapiens conceivably could be
reduced to prehistoric levels or below, and extinction of the human species itself cannot be excluded.
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NUCLEAR WINTER KILLS AGRO


New studies show that nuclear winter impacts will eliminate substantial agricultural growth for years
Robock et. Al. 2007 (Alan Robock, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, Luke Oman, Department of Earth
and Planetary Sciences at Johns Hopkins University, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers
University, “NUCLEAR WINTER REVISITED WITH A MODERN CLIMATE MODEL AND CURRENT NUCLEAR ARSENALS:
STILL CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES” Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmosphere, Apr. 2007, <
http://www.envsci.rutgers.edu/~gera/nwinter/nw6accepted.pdf>)

The amplitude of the climate changes from the 5 Tg, 50 Tg and 150 Tg cases are compared to those from global warming of the past
century in Fig. 8 and climate change of the past 1000 yr in Fig. 9. In both cases it is clear that all cases would produce unprecedented
long lasting climate change. The 50 Tg and 150 Tg cases produce cooling as large or larger than that experienced 18,000 yr ago
during the coldest period of the last Ice Age. Harwell and Hutchinson [1986] clearly described the impacts of nuclear winter. They
assumed that there would be no food production around the world for one year and concluded that most of the people on the planet
would run out of food and starve to death by then. Our results show that this period of no food production needs to be extended by
many years, making the impacts of nuclear winter even worse than previously thought. Agriculture would be affected by many
factors, including temperature changes, precipitation changes, and changes in insolation [e.g., Robock et al., 1993; Maytín et al.,
1995]. As an example, Fig. 10 shows changes in the length of the freeze-free growing season for the third full growing seasons in the
Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Such large reductions in growing season would completely eliminate crops that have
insufficient time to reach maturity. Also, global ozone loss is likely [Toon et al., 2006], with effects on downward ultraviolet
radiation [Vogelmann et al., 1992] and atmospheric circulation. Further analysis of these and other effects, which is beyond the scope
of this paper, is needed.