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SDI 08 1

Russia and Saudi Ups

Russia and Saudi Oil DA Updates
Russia DA Uniqueness...........................................................................................2

GDP growth could close in on 8% in 2008. Only time will tell if this is the right time to buy.6%.3% in the first half of 2008. http://www.3bn for Russia’s biggest wholesale power producer before price caps end in 2011. The cost of the train ticket from Moscow to St Petersburg has doubled in a year.html) Russian GDP could grow about 8% in 2008. Russia’s economy to grow 8% this year. “Based on my appraisals and the appraisals of the Economic Development Ministry. Property giant Emaar bought UK estate agency Hamptons just in time for the market to slump. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov said at a meeting with members of the Association of European Business in Moscow on Thursday.6%. Arriving back in Russia after a year’s absence last week there is an immediate sense of economic prosperity in the air.83trn) in foreign currency reserves. 2008 (“Russian Economy flourishes like UAE’s”.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2387619&title=Russian _Economy_Could. Indeed. and supplies electricity to Moscow and the oil-rich Tyumen region. Industrial production could grow by more than 6%. which was already up to 9% for the year on July 7. while industrial production increased 6.business24- 7. but isn’t infallible Istock analysis July 10. similarly ballet prices have shot up and even the price of art on the streets is double what it was two years ago. As an example. OGK-1 has four plants in European Russia and two in Siberia. But the omens are very fortuitous in post-Putin Russia. GDP has been rising sharply at around seven per cent per annum for the past seven years. The government’s official forecast for GDP growth in 2008 currently stands at 7. Even gas at the pumps sells for US prices these days. US and parts of Europe. http://www. while the forecast for industrial production is 5. Last week came the news that Dubai World and OAO Roskommunenergo are to bid $5. or three percentage points higher than in the same period of last year. and acquiring the second-largest US housebuilder John Laing was arguably even worse on timing. and part of a $34bn sale of electricity generation and distribution assets since And as emerging stock markets like China and India have sold down rapidly since last October. the Russian bourse hovers near an all-time high. 48 and 35 per cent respectively. The economic transformation runs deep and is being overlooked by the Cold War mentality of some observers in the West.” he said.istockanalyst. and has amassed $500 billion (Dh1. 2008 (“Russian Economy could grow 8% in 2008”. This will be the first Russian Energy investment by a GCC oil state. Russian GDP grew 8.1bn in Kirk Kerkorian’s MGM Mirage company in Las Vegas as part of Dubai’s diversification plans. Ministry. But then Madame Tussauds in London proved an excellent buy and was sold on for double the sale price. Since then Las Vegas has gone into an unprecedented slump with tourism falling in a city once thought recession proof.aspx) With oil prices remaining high. he cited inflation. Zhukov noted that Russia has maintained a rather high level of economic growth “despite the continuing financial crisis throughout the world.7%. usually a sign of economic strength or possibly overheating. The Economic Development Ministry will present an According to the Economic Development updated forecast for 2008 to the government at the end of July. It is only too easy for foreign investors to become the latecomers to any investment party.” although there have nevertheless been some negative consequences.SDI 08 2 Russia and Saudi Ups Russia DA Uniqueness Russia’s economy is surging because of high oil prices but inflation has also risen making the economy vulnerable to any sudden change Emirates Business 24/7 July 11. Then again last August Dubai World agreed to invest $5. and none of the near panic seen in the UK. . Dubai-based entities have a mixed record for buying foreign assets in recent years. the most apparent change is that inflation has surged in Russia. he said. Russia is enjoying a similar economic boom to the Emirates.

1 percent by June 9). the experts have concluded that all macroeconomic indicators. which could eventually slow down economic growth He congratulated President Dmitry Medvedev and his colleagues on Russia's strong economic growth. for the first time World Bank experts spoke about the overheating of the Russian economy. Importantly. Zoellick was much more diplomatic than the authors of the World Bank's early June report on the Russian economy. http://mnweekly. . and said that this is a very interesting time for Russia and its relations with the World Bank.7 percent from January to May of this year. although some problems plague it Moscow News 7/6/08 (“World Bank Chief praises Russian economy”. which they define as a situation where consumer demand outstrips the supply of goods and services. and 8. point to the strength of the Russian economy. Graphic evidence of this is the faster growth of wages and salaries than labor productivity.html ) Zoellick was generous with his praise for the Russian economy.7 percent in the first quarter of this year. But they again criticized the Russian government for persistent inflation (which reached 7. and was up to 8.1 percent in 2007. Nevertheless. except for inflation. This situation threatens even higher inflation. They too commended Russia for its economic growth rates: 8.SDI 08 3 Russia and Saudi Ups Russia DA Uniqueness The Russian economy is strong and getting stronger.

a prominent economist in Moscow. he said. said Sorokin. said Russia's by the infusion of cash into the economy as well as the higher prices of oil and gas. then." . the total volume of agricultural production in Russia in 2007 was roughly 25 percent less than in 1989.SDI 08 4 Russia and Saudi Ups Russia DA I/L oil prices key to economy The Russian economy is strong now solely because of oil prices it’s the only thing masking the underlying problems McClatchy Newspapers July 17. http://www. but not products.html) inflation generally was thought to be fueled Dmitry Sorokin. is the fundamental problem that the country's infrastructure was never fully rebuilt after chronic underinvestment by the Soviets. domestic product — about $1. For instance. But lurking beneath everything. the deputy Why. "I call it a GDP made of it's not true growth." Sorokin said. It's because of high oil prices. which have given us money. followed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and then the 1998 economic crisis. 2008 (“Russia worries about its high inflation”. is Russia's gross director of the economics institute at Russia's academy of sciences in Moscow.29 trillion last year — so high? "The answer is obvious.

oil-rich Gulf markets are one of the few reliable sources of finance.. the vast sovereign wealth funds being built up by Gulf oil produces might be managed under the strictest principles of Islamic Estimates of the total size of assets held under Islamic finance rules vary. Today approximately one quarter of the world's one billion Muslims live in Africa-that is about 250 million. such as Nigeria. such as Somalia. investment bank Investec announced a partnership with a Saudi investment provider to produce the first sharia-compliant fund targeting Africa. Ivory Coast. 2008 (“Centres fight for Islamic finance as oil booms”. in A. France can help financial innovation and benefit from the deep pockets of Middle Eastern investors as liquidity has dried up elsewhere in the global financial markets. which prohibits the use of interest -. Algeria.html) One thousand. It is no surprise then that cities with substantial Muslim populations and connections as diverse as Singapore and Hong Kong. Other funds are following. Dr.and therefore investment in conventional banks. Kenya and Tanzania. The move constituted Islam's first footsteps in the African continent. as well as a second tier of countries where Islam is either the majority religion. but the Asian Development Bank estimates it at around $1 trillion.but recently the French government signalled a change in attitude. and opened up an era of continuous expansion for the faith.and Western financial woes seen deepening -. less than 50% of the inhabitants. Hunwick holds a joint position as professor of religion and professor of African history. In June. Most other African countries have minority Muslim populations. with growth of 10 to 15 percent a year. Morocco. Islamic law-compliant investment products are springing into existence as financial centres try to compete for a slice of the Middle East's colossal new oil revenues.and with high oil and food prices limiting growth -. two thirds of the worldwide Islamic sukuk bond market -.uga. "By preparing the ground for Islamic finance. http://www." It is unclear to what extent. In the countries of the northern one third of the continent they are a majority-up to 99% of the population in some cases. others have smaller numbers. His research has concerned aspects of the intellectual and social history of Muslims in West Africa. There is a huge population of Muslims in Africa and their numbers are only increasing Hunwick 96 (John. i. or is the religion of approximately half of the population. to some extent the Sudan). both as a spiritual enterprise and a political kingdom. B. . “Africa and Islamic Revival: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives”.D. Currently High oil prices are giving money to help Islamic banks who will invest that in helping Africa because there are people who will only take sharia products- plan takes away the income The Guardian July 23. the Arab commander 'Amr ibn al-'As led his army across what we would now call the Gaza Strip and into Egypt. Tunisia. With dollar crude prices soaring to almost double their level of a year ago -. especially in Mali and Nigeria. Niger. "The French have lagged the British. With conventional sources of cash depleted by the credit crunch and fears of recession around the developed world estimated $100 billion -.SDI 08 5 Russia and Saudi Ups Islamic Bank Add on A. This includes all the countries we would nowadays recognize as "Arab" countries in Africa ( From Africa to Paris to Britain's former industrial heartland.e. and these include some with sizeable minorities such as Ghana." ratings agency Standard & Poor's said this week. if at all. But products to target those who demand sharia products. Sierra Leone. 641. Chad. London and Birmingham and even Paris are vying to act as key centres of expertise in the new boom. Mauritania and. For now.a new intensity has gripped Islamic finance growth. Eritrea and Ethiopia. Mali. three hundred and fifty-five years ago. Senegal and Guinea. more and more takers have been coming forward with alcohol or pornography producers. based in Malaysia where the industry first took off.

Some 33. capital crashes or floods. estimated that Africa would annually need between $ 1 billion to $ 3 billion to combat the disease. Muslims are unwilling to reveal their status while alive and families are afraid to say how their loved ones died. We are watching a whole continent degenerate into ghostly skeletons that finally succumb to a most excruciating. The belief that the Islamic way of life protects Muslims is therefore unrealistic and leads to a false sense of security in the Muslim community. The denial and taboos surrounding HIV/AIDS result in people questioning Positive Muslims' leadership in this field. Muslims will realise the importance that of HIV prevention.kit. Does this mean that the UN Security Council and the U. Since most Muslims believe that they have not touched or seen a fellow Muslim who is HIV-positive. 70 percent of them in Africa. governments' conscience. What barometer is used to proclaim a holocaust if this number is not a sure measure? There is no doubt that AIDS is the most serious threat to humankind. http://www. Congress. advocates abstinence from any sexual activity before marriage. D.S. “Will Annan finally put out Africa’s fires?” Jakarta Post. that most Muslims believe they have not seen or touched a fellow Muslim living with HIV/AIDS. like many other religious traditions.000 people died from armed conflicts compared to 2. second.S. Many Muslims believe that AIDS is a homosexual disease or a disease that affects black people only.and thus even the West has stakes in the AIDS challenge. according to the UN. Once sub- . Being able to see and touch something often makes it more real for people.2 million from AIDS. World Bank President James Wolfensohn lamented that Africa was losing teachers faster than they could be replaced. in particular have at last decided to remember Africa? Suddenly. Statistics show that AIDS is the leading killer in sub-Saharan Africa. more serious than hurricanes. This attitude stems from the belief that the Islamic way of life protects people from contracting HIV and. AIDS was seen as threat to world peace. The trouble is that AIDS has no cure -. and so many Muslims have come across someone who is HIV-positive. Muslims in Africa are at a Unique risk of contracting AIDS without assistance. The challenge is not one of a single continent alone because Africa cannot be quarantined. but currently receives only $ 160 million a year in official assistance. and that AIDS was now more effective than war in destabilizing African countries.S. People challenge our legitimacy and purpose as an organisation. In 1998. Probably. hoping through our awareness and education campaigns. if approved by the U. would bring U. 200. Due to the secrecy surrounding HIV/AIDS. About 13 million of the 16 million people who have died of AIDS are in Africa. earthquakes. The impact is extinction Muchiri 2k [Michael Kibaara Staff Member at Ministry of Education in Nairobi. Peter Piot. The hope is that Gore does not intend to make political capital out of this by painting the usually disagreeable Republican- controlled Congress as the bad guy and hope the buck stops on the whole of current and future U.SDI 08 6 Russia and Saudi Ups Islamic Bank Add on C. It has no cure yet. Although the UN . presidential vote. before they are able to see and touch fellow Muslims whom they know are HIV-positive. Gore said that his new initiative. Maybe there is nothing left to salvage in Africa after all and this talk is about the African-American vote in November's U. dehumanizing death. one of our greatest challenges has been to establish ourselves and our ability to lead in a community that believes it does not require leadership in the face of the AIDS pandemic. March 6. We continue to grapple with this. The reality is that many Muslims have sex before marriage and engage in extra-marital affairs.asp ) One of the difficulties Positive Muslims faces is convincing the Muslim community that AIDS is something that also affects them. Islam.6 million people have HIV around the world. thereby robbing countries of their most productive members and decimating entire villages. economic LN] The executive director of UNAIDS. they don’t believe it affects them when it does Royal Tropical Institute 2003 (“"Positive Muslims" leadership in South Africa”.S. surpassing people killed in warfare. the AIDS challenge is a fundamental one in that it and the Security Council cannot solve all African problems threatens to wipe out man. questioning the type of leadership we provide and asking whether Muslim leadership on HIV/AIDS is required in the first place. they conclude that AIDS does not affect them. contributions to fighting AIDS and other infectious diseases to $ 325 million. and Gore would ask the congress to set up millions of dollars on this case. The reality is that one cannot see who is HIV- positive or negative.

signaling the beginning of the end of the black race and maybe the human race. fell by 0. the world's second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia. Last year. for more oil top priorities for the strategic oil sector and approved a number of tax breaks for the oil industry from 2009 to allow firms to fund new projects.Their evidence doesn’t assume new findings The Guardian UK July 23. Sure as death.6 percent in 2010 compared to 2007. . Shmatko said earlier this month that Russian oil output will be at least flat this year despite a drop in the first half and will certainly rise next year. as saying that oil output in Russia will reach 514 million tonnes (10. an energy ministry document showed on Wednesday. prompting some analysts to say the fall might become a trend until the country launches production at new deposits in East Siberia and the Far East.3 percent in the first half of this year. Oil production in Russia. stopping short of making predictions for issued by Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Russia expects its oil output will rise by 4.3 million barrels per day) in 2010. Africa's time has run 08 7 Russia and Saudi Ups Saharan Africa is wiped out.2 percent in 2006. it shall not be long before another continent is on the brink of extinction.3 mbpd in 2010”.including a record 11 percent in 2003. 2008 (“Russia oil output seen up at 10. a notch up from 2. Russian production rose by 2. A government source quoted the report. up from 491. The report did not include the ministry's forecasts of oil production for this year and 2009. A2: Russian Oil Production Peaked Russia will still be able to increase production by 2010. but much lower than huge spikes in previous The government made maintaining output and exploring years -.3 percent.5 million tonnes last year.

You need to see the oil price fall for a considerable period of time. Non-Unique Oil Prices are falling and the Russian economy is just getting stronger RussiaToday July 17. it’s a sign the markets are not sure strong levels of demand can persist. 2008 (“Russian Economy could grow 8% in 2008”.ru/business/news/27632) Fears of an economic slowdown in the US keep kept oil markets volatile on wednesday - with a sharp downward movement of 6 dollars a barrel for the second day running. which was already up to 9% for the year on July 7. If this trend continues in the next ten days or two weeks we should see another run at higher prices.russiatoday. remains little affected for now. the world’s second-biggest oil exporter. While the clouds continue to gather for the leading developed economies. At the same time there is reason to believe this might be a bubble. he cited inflation. Russia." The innovative development model will make it possible to maintain average GDP growth rates at 6. favorable situation on the global energy market to switch the Russian economy to an innovative development model. any hope that lower prices will slow inflation are also vague.html) Zhukov noted that Russia has maintained a rather high level of economic growth "despite the continuing financial crisis throughout the world. raise the competitiveness of Russian business. steadily develop the banking system and increase its contribution to economic growth. . carry out several large infrastructural projects. he said." although there have nevertheless been some negative consequences. At around 135 dollars. fundamental demand for oil remains strong.5% per year for the period until 2020 even if oil prices fall. investors are increasingly looking to Russia as a safe haven. Ron Smith of Alfa Bank says long-term. But the falls in the oil price of this week wont have an immediate impact on inflationary pressure according to Roland Nash of Renaissance Capital. _Economy_Could.SDI 08 8 Russia and Saudi Ups A2: Russia DA Oil prices wont Collapse Econ The Russian government is making the economy impervious to oil prices Istock analysis July 10. 2008 (“Oil Prices Wont Affect Russian Economy”. or three percentage points higher He also said the government has set the goal of "using the than in the same period of last year. http://www. Inflation has topped 9 per cent so far this year. http://www. if the hedge funds and everyone else who’s piled into suddenly start to think that prices are going to go down then that will become a self fulfilling prophecy and they will go down. Its to small a move to have a big impact on the inflation rate in the short term. and if this trade ever turns. retain a high level of investment. So the decision by ratings agency Moody’s to lift its investment rating of Russian government debt is a timely signal to investors. As an example.istockanalyst. With petro-dollars flowing into the country.

we believe two factors mitigate this risk. although increasing speculation has made a short-term correction in raw material prices likely. rising incomes and credit growth have led to strong Russian household consumption. combined with tight global capacity. First. will keep the long-term commodity uptrend http://www. and is helping to diversify the economy.businessweek.SDI 08 9 Russia and Saudi Ups A2: Russia DA Oil prices wont Collapse Econ Arguments that the Russia Economy is too dependant on energy exports are wrong- 2 reasons Business Week July 18. . 2008 (“A rougher road for emerging market stocks”. in our view. which is supporting service and manufacturing growth. we believe a secular increase in emerging market demand.htm?chan=s earch) While the Russian economy is arguably too dependent on energy exports. Second.

" The sense of relief throughout the land is palpable. Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson who understands that when his cronies on Wall Street are bleeding it's because of the manipulation of the "short sellers". but in Iran’s case. Iran Daily reported. Talk might be cheap. proclaiming "We see no evidence of manipulation or undue speculation" -. not to speak of our Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke. Traders were watching developments in the Middle East after what appeared to be a shift in US policy toward Iran announced last Tuesday. But the price has dropped to $131 from a record $147.Steepest four day decline of oil prices in history and nothing to do with supply and demand The Huffington Post July 23. and of course our ex-Wall Streeter. talking points to rationalize doing nothing. While certainly not the only reason for sky-high oil.html) Here we go again. has become more of a casino huckster than vigilant decli_b_113994. 2008 (“Oil Prices in steep decline: be afraid be very afraid”. unnecessary tensions over Iran’s civilian nuclear program have helped fuel the surge in gas prices that is altering American lifestyles. http://www. talk might lead to cheaper gas at the if an eighteen dollar plunge in four trading days had everything to do with "supply and demand" -. For a moment the fact that we are still at levels over 160% above prices of only a year and a half ago -. . of our stalwart Secretary of Energy Sam Bodman.SDI 08 10 Russia and Saudi Ups A2: Russia and Saudi Arabia Non Unique Non-Unique.Unique. forever whitewashing the commodity exchanges. 2008 (“Oil prices fell again after iran And silenced for the moment is the inane commentary of President Bush.prices unheard of before -. Talk might be cheap.iranmania. Gulf storm”. talk might lead to cheaper gas at the pump. but All this while our when it's you and I paying through the nose at the pump "it's all about supply and demand". but in the case of Iran.oil prices just fell Iran News July 22. The cost of a barrel of oil shot up nearly 8 percent in a single day in June after a senior Israeli official raised the specter of an attack on Iran. which left much more impact on the oil market.thereby shamelessly providing this administration. Non. Traders said that prices also slipped on prospects that slowing economic growth would cut demand for crude.asp?NewsCode=60171&NewsKin d=Current%20Affairs) Oil prices fell again after Iran and world powers announced resumption of talks to put an end to the nuclear standoff.seems lost in the ebullient moment. regulatory commission. especially our Energy Secretary. the CFTC.huffingtonpost. of myriad oil company poobahs. CHN reported. not only because Americans are driving less but because the Bush administration has finally come to its senses to talk to the Islamic Republic of Iran over its civilian nuclear program instead of demanding that the country suspend its nuclear enrichment before any face-to-face negotiations. Oil prices tumbling "in the steepest four day decline in history. http://www.

" the minister said. are clamoring for the sharp tax cut to wean Russia off its addiction to Economy. which are growing at an annual rate of over 40 percent.iht. economic growth was high and investment increased. investment is not coming into the economy when inflation is high." he said. Kudrin startled audience at a recent tax conference when he compared the issue to nuclear war. he said. Inflation is the main factor behind the decline in retail Economy-Still. he said that "a slowdown in economic growth always occurs when inflation is high. Some of the most vehement warnings have been coming from the normally bland Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. however high inflation will certainly lead to a slowdown in economic growth. With all the government and private sector spending.php) Fears are growing that Russia's oil and gas fueled economy is running too hot — and about to boil over in the kind of mess that has scalded smaller East European neighbors. At the same time.SDI 08 11 Russia and Saudi Ups A2: Russia: Impact inevitable Russian economic decline inevitable inflation Istock Analyst July 22. "It can't be said for now that economic growth rates are declining. "In the end. Economic trends cannot be based on a single month. His opponents.1% as of July 14. including Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina. the Status Quo leads to nuke war inevitably. 2008 (“Some fear Russia's boom could turn to bust as economy growing too fast”. its try or die for the aff The International Herald Tribune July 22. who says gross domestic product is growing too fast and any ill-conceived stimulus measures such proposed tax cuts will lead to intolerable inflation and a sudden stall in growth. http://www. There is a basic impression in Russia that high economic growth rates can be achieved when inflation is up." he said. rising interest rates and lower investment levels. he said. inflation is reeling out of control — food prices are soaring at an annual rate of 25 percent — and threatens to submerge hundreds of thousands of people below the poverty line. he said. At the same time. . but could be slowed by high infation”. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said." Inflation in Russia stood at 9. he noted that investment has yet to decline but could do so. Cut taxes. and Russia won't maintain its thousands of atomic warheads. Kudrin warned.istockanalyst. Now. The problems facing the Russian economy are not connected with the global financial crisis. when inflation was on the decline. he said. inflation leads to a decline in economic growth rates.html) The Russian economy continues to grow." he told journalists on Tuesday in comments on the low growth levels in fixed capital investment and a reduction in retail growth rates in June. "Russia's problem is inflation. he added. The government is walking a tightrope. 2008 (“Russian economy still growing. In recent years. Russia’s is growing so fast its overheating boom will turn into bust. http://www. "The 33 percent share of the budget spent on defense and security is our guarantee that there won't be a nuclear war.

. causing a shock wave on international markets. http://www. when the country defaulted on domestic debt and devalued the currency.SDI 08 12 Russia and Saudi Ups A2: Russia DA: No Impact Russia’s economy wont decline their evidence is old and doesn’t assume Russian measures to prevent a crisis The International Herald Tribune July 22. 2008 (“Some fear Russia's boom could turn to bust as economy growing too fast”. Millions of Russians lost their Economy.iht. Russia has wisely used the oil windfall to tuck away hundreds of billions of dollars in strategic reserves and sovereign wealth funds — "rainy day" funds that it can use as a buffer against any short-term shock such as a precipitous drop in oil prices.php) Concerns over Russia's economy coincide with the approaching 10th anniversary of the 1998 financial crisis. Economists stress there is no chance of a repeat crisis.

Angola.SDI 08 13 Russia and Saudi Ups Saudi The Saudi economy has witnessed an economic boom over the past few years thanks to the high crude oil prices. http://africa. Continued growth in GDP for the short to medium term will have a positive affect on the growth of purchasing power for consumers.Indonesia. Saudi consumers are spending more money. Hard Choices for Oil-Exporting States" -. Malaysia and Norway -. which in turn boosted the economy.Uniqueness Currently the Saudi Economy Relies completely on oil revolving around weak governance and private sector Reuters News July 24. Furthermore. which have risen from US$25 per barrel in 2003 to exceed US$130 per barrel in 2008. and consumer confidence. With higher levels of disposable income. This in turn will help in preserving the country’s economic strength for the upcoming years. "Time. 2008 (“Trouble looms for oil producers –report”. This oil boom led to the increase in government revenue and expenditure. "These revolve around weak governance." The others -. The survey of the economic prospects of 12 oil-producing countries by Britain's Royal Institute for International Affairs -. Timor Leste (East Timor). The impact of a healthy economy on clothing spending is notably positive. The Saudi Economy is experiencing a boom from high oil prices Al Bawaba News July 23.Algeria. a report by a British think tank said on Wednesday. particularly on non-necessities such as mass market branded clothing.entitled "Ending Dependence. they face a plateau period long before oil runs out. Nigeria." Although many of them will be able to sell oil for decades. http://www. Saudi Arabia." it said. not oil. poorly performing private sectors and an inadequate programme of economic and political reform. Kazakhstan. .html ) Oil producing countries need to fix the rest of their economies to prepare for inevitable falls in exports.reuters. Only three of the 12 countries is running out. the government is investing revenue surplus in building infrastructure and growing the manufacturing and services sectors in the long term. Kuwait and Iran -- "face serious barriers and constraints. when the rate of production stops increasing while growing domestic demand means exports slow and revenues shrink. 2008 (“Global : Saudi Apparel Retail Market – Continues to Grow Strongly”.albawaba.described its own conclusions as "rather depressing".were "well on the road to moving towards a non-hydrocarbon-dependent economy. Azerbaijan.

according to authorities in Riyadh. apart from in Saudi Arabia.indiatimes." he said.cms) An attack -. head of the University of Massachusetts's peace and world security programme and author of the book "Resource Wars". plan solves The Economic Times July 3. the world market has never been so vulnerable to an offensive by Jihadists in the kingdom.or even an attempted attack -. Of more than 700 people arrested in the course of the last six months in Saudi Arabia. Michael Klare. ket_in_fear_of_terror_attack_in_Saudi_Arabia/articleshow/3190779.SDI 08 14 Russia and Saudi Ups A2: Saudi DA: Impact inevitable (If you have oil adv. 2008 (“World oil market in fear of terror attack in Saudi Arabia”. dozens had been part of cells charged with preparing attacks against oil sites.) Impact inevitable in Status Quo. It would have an immediate effect on prices. .by Islamic extremists on Saudi Arabia's oil sector would have disastrous consequences on the world market and the price per barrel. With the price per barrel rising constantly and the capacity to increase global production almost non-existent. said that even if an attack caused little damage. analysts warn. "There would be a tremendous psychological effect because the market is already prepared to expect terrorist events like this. the impact would still be enormous. they said.

saying supply shortage is the main reason for the surge.aspx) A surge in oil prices above $100 over the past few months has started to destroy strong demand and this was evident in the recent price collapse. In its monthly report for August. With the exception of the world's oil giant Saudi Arabia. the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) as a whole has remained reluctant to increase production because it wants to drive prices even higher. but demand is a function of price also and. in the case of crude" . although demand destruction is gathering pace and prices have fallen by more than $17 a barrel in the past three days.business24- 7. "The world has been short of oil since the middle of 2006 and remains short now. said a report. which is run by former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Al Yamani. 2008 (“Demand for oil falling due to high prices”." CGES said. http://www. said the report by the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES). CGES rebuffed OPEC claims that the sharp rise in crude prices has been a result of speculation and the weak US dollar. it is a function of price differentials as well as absolute prices. sent to Emirates Business.SDI 08 15 Russia and Saudi Ups A2: Saudi DA: Non Unique Non Unique demand is falling in the Status Quo causing prices to go down Emirates Business 24/7 July 25. "Producers argue that they are supplying every barrel that their customers want to lift.

com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5905279. this will keep prices up Houston Chronicle July 24.chron. according to the report's authors John Mitchell from the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and Dundee University Emeritus Professor Paul Stevens. whose production capacity represents more than a quarter of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' total. Iran and Nigeria will stop exporting oil by 2040. With oil at $100 a barrel. Saudi Arabia. other sources of income will be needed to replace oil revenue. Oil output from Iran. Oil exports may last longer if producing nations scrap domestic fuel subsidies to reduce energy use or adopt renewable energy. Saudi Arabia's hydrocarbons revenue will fail to cover its fiscal deficit from 2030 onwards. Iran's oil income will cover its expenses until 2025. .html) To ensure the Saudi economy keeps growing. the researchers said. according to the report. will level off as soon as 2010. which the authors take as a floor price. Kuwait and Nigeria. http://www. they said. 2008 ( “Study: Saudi oil exports may start falling in 2014”. which may plateau by the middle of the next decade. and Kuwait's until 2040. the report said.SDI 08 16 Russia and Saudi Ups A2: Saudi DA: No Impact Other Countries’ production will collapse soon.