You are on page 1of 18

WNDI 2008 1

Elections DA Aff

Elections DA Aff
Elections DA Aff.........................................................................................................................................................1
Elections DA Aff.............................................................................................................................1
2AC AT: Elections......................................................................................................................................................3
2AC AT: Elections.........................................................................................................................3
Yes McCain.................................................................................................................................................................4
Yes McCain.....................................................................................................................................4
Yes McCain – Ohio.....................................................................................................................................................5
Yes McCain – Ohio.........................................................................................................................5
Yes McCain – Virginia................................................................................................................................................6
Yes McCain – Virginia...................................................................................................................6
Yes McCain – NV ......................................................................................................................................................7
Yes McCain – NV ..........................................................................................................................7
AT: Deep South..........................................................................................................................................................8
AT: Deep South..............................................................................................................................8
AT: Link – Nuclear Power.........................................................................................................................................9
AT: Link – Nuclear Power............................................................................................................9
AT: Link – Cap and Trade........................................................................................................................................10
AT: Link – Cap and Trade.........................................................................................................10
AT: Link-Uniqueness ..............................................................................................................................................11
AT: Link-Uniqueness .................................................................................................................11
Economy Key............................................................................................................................................................12
Economy Key................................................................................................................................12
AT: Bush/Issues Key................................................................................................................................................13
AT: Bush/Issues Key...................................................................................................................13
AT: Bush Key...........................................................................................................................................................14
AT: Bush Key...............................................................................................................................14
McCain Solves PHEVs.............................................................................................................................................15
McCain Solves PHEVs................................................................................................................15
McCain Solves Warming..........................................................................................................................................16
McCain Solves Warming.............................................................................................................16
McCain Solves Nuclear............................................................................................................................................17
McCain Solves Nuclear................................................................................................................17
AT: Universal Health Care.......................................................................................................................................18
AT: Universal Health Care.........................................................................................................18
WNDI 2008 2
Elections DA Aff
WNDI 2008 3
Elections DA Aff

2AC AT: Elections


( ) Obama won’t necessarily win and issues aren’t key
Steven Stark, culture commentator for NPR, 6-12-2008, “Will the Election Be All About Obama?”
RealClearPolitics, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/going_dutch.html
Sure, he'll occasionally get the spotlight, and there are things he can do to improve his chances marginally.
But in the end, this election is about Barack Obama. The country wants a significant change in
direction and Obama and the Democrats are the only ones who can credibly promise to deliver it. Thus,
the results in November are going to come down to one question: can a significant portion of the
electorate abide Barack Obama as its next president? Right now, it's an open question. And for Obama
to get the answer he wants, he's going to have to be another Ronald Reagan or another Franklin
Delano Roosevelt. There is always a threshold over which nominees must pass when the electorate decides
whether a candidate can be trusted with the most powerful job in the world. For some, like General Dwight
Eisenhower in 1952, doing so is a cakewalk. For upstarts and more ideological purists, it's harder. Obama, of
course, is the upstart of upstarts. The good news for Obama is that most nominees do, in fact, successfully
make the transition, especially when there is an overriding desire for change. John F. Kennedy in 1960,
Jimmy Carter in 1976, Reagan in 1980, and Bill Clinton in 1992 all faced an initially skeptical electorate and,
through favorable debate performances and constant exposure in the general-election campaign, gradually
reassured the public that it had less to fear from the unknown than from the known. Upon closer
examination, however, the Kennedy, Carter, and Clinton comparisons may not offer much of a
precedent for Obama. After all, each of the three was a centrist who ran at his challenger from the right
as well as the left. Clinton and Carter came from the Southern GOP base and founded their appeal, in part,
on their willingness to deviate sharply from party orthodoxy. JFK, too, was a hawk on military policy,
running against Nixon from the right on the basis of a purported missile gap. In contrast, as his Senate voting
record and positions demonstrate, Obama is as liberal as they come, without any public record of straying
from his party's left-leaning causes and constituencies. That means to win, he'll have to replicate the
Reagan experience and basically lead an ideological revolution that will redraw the electoral map.
Risk assessment It's a highly risky strategy, to say the least. It's risky, in part, because Americans -- even
when they say they want change -- often don't endorse a sharp turn in direction. Yes, FDR's election in
1932 signaled a transformation, but the nation was in the midst of its worst depression. Reagan fomented a
shift in the other direction, but the economy was in tatters and another nation held our citizens hostage. Are
the Iraq War and current economic situation commensurate woes? If precedent is any guide, for the
Democrats to win, the voters will have to think so. Then there's Obama himself. FDR and Reagan were well-
known figures on the national scene for years before they finally made it to the Oval Office; they each had a
track record as governor of the nation's then-largest state (New York and California, respectively) that, in the
end, reassured voters they could be trusted with the nation's highest office. Obama, by comparison, has a
short résumé. Yes, experience can be overrated (as Hillary Clinton discovered) but if you're promising to
drastically refashion our politics, it may be more of a prerequisite than usual. Obama's uphill battle is
made even trickier by the opponent he faces. Both FDR and Reagan won the office against damaged
incumbents who, to a large number of Americans, had virtually disqualified themselves for a second term.
McCain may not be a particularly vibrant candidate (especially if his Louisiana speech of this past week
is any indication), but he's not the incumbent. Those focusing on Obama's challenges so far have tended to
dwell on the issue of race. But race isn't really the main issue. Anybody would find it difficult to do what
Obama is trying to do. He has a hard sell ahead of him, and there have been far more instances when such
"revolutionary" candidates (think William Jennings Bryan, Barry Goldwater, or George McGovern)
have found the general-election mountain far too steep to climb. Support him or not, give Obama credit
for this: he thinks big, which is why the upcoming campaign will focus almost exclusively on his ideas and
his persona. If only by doing that, he's already changed our politics.
WNDI 2008 4
Elections DA Aff

Yes McCain
( ) McCain will win – Electoral College heavily tilted towards GOP
Robert Novak, Syndicated Political Columnist, 5-28-2008, “Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama
268,” Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26723
Electoral College: While national polls garner attention, they have no direct bearing on choosing our
next President. A state-by-state count of electoral votes is the key to analyzing the presidential race.
For the first time this year, we run through all 50 states plus the District of Columbia in order to handicap the
presidential race. Outlook: If the election were held today, we see a McCain victory by the narrowest of
margins.
WNDI 2008 5
Elections DA Aff

Yes McCain – Ohio


( ) McCain will carry Ohio
Robert Novak, Syndicated Political Columnist, 7-16-2008, “New Electoral College Analysis: Obama 273,
McCain 265,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27570&s=rcme
Ohio (20): No matter what, Ohio can't escape its role as battleground. This year, however, McCain seems
to be slightly stronger here than Bush was in 2000 and 2004. Central to McCain's success is Obama's
reputation among "bitter" gun owners and religious voters—Hillary's Democrats. Much of Obama's
campaign will be an outreach to bitter Ohio Democrats, but for now, the Buckeye State tilts Republican.
Leaning McCain.
WNDI 2008 6
Elections DA Aff

Yes McCain – Virginia


( ) McCain will carry Virginia
Robert Novak, Syndicated Political Columnist, 7-16-2008, “New Electoral College Analysis: Obama 273,
McCain 265,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27570&s=rcme
Virginia: Virginia is possibly the most talked-about Red state to be making a pilgrimage to Blue. Given
the Democratic takeover of the governorship, a Senate seat, and probably the other Senate seat, it seems
fitting that Obama should have a strong play for Virginia's 13 electoral votes. But given the Southern
nature of much of this state, and the high portion of undecideds, McCain should still feel confident
about the commonwealth. Leaning McCain.
WNDI 2008 7
Elections DA Aff

Yes McCain – NV
( ) Obama not leading in Nevada
Don Frederick, LAT Political Blogger, 7-7-2008, “In Nevada, the numbers game tilts Democratic,” LA Times
Blog, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/07/in-nevada-the-n.html
As heartening as all this may be to Barack Obama's presidential campaign -- which included Nevada as one
of the 18 states where his opening general election ads have aired -- few analysts will yet make [Obama]
the favorite to capture it. Two polls in June showed the race for Nevada's five electoral votes very close,
but with John McCain holding a slight lead. The Republican White House contender benefits from
residing in a neighboring state. And, as underscored by a McCain radio ad unveiled late last week on
Spanish-speaking stations in Nevada and New Mexico, he will aggressively court the Latino vote in the
Southwest.
WNDI 2008 8
Elections DA Aff

AT: Deep South


( ) Obama won’t break solid south
Dahleen Glanton, correspondent, 7-13-2008, Chicago Tribune, “In Deep South, Obama sees new shades of blue,”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-obama-southjul13,0,1063903.story
Obama recently began running television ads in 18 states, including Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.
While political observers say there is a chance he could succeed in Virginia and North Carolina, it is less
likely that he can break the Republican stranglehold in Deep South states.
.
WNDI 2008 9
Elections DA Aff

AT: Link – Nuclear Power


( ) Nuclear power isn’t popular enough
Alex Kaplun, E&ENews PM reporter, 3-10-2008, “ENERGY POLICY: Poll shows voters united on alternatives,
split on nuclear, oil industry incentives,” E&E News, nexis
About 59 percent of Republicans say they support increased use of nuclear power, compared to 34
percent of Democrats and 46 percent of independents. Fifty-two percent of Republicans also favored tax
cuts for oil exploration, compar
WNDI 2008 10
Elections DA Aff

AT: Link – Cap and Trade


( ) McCain won’t support cap and trade – won’t take credit
Matthew Yglesias, Political Blogger for the Atlantic Monthly, 7-12-2008, “McCain and Climate,” Matthew
Yglesias Blog, http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/mccain_and_climate.php
I have to agree that it's incredibly unhelpful to have Bill Clinton and Al Gore praising John McCain on
climate change. It's true, in a sense, that McCain is better than your average Republican on this issue. But
that was much more true a couple of years ago when he was cosponsoring the McCain-Lieberman climate
change half-measures bill. These days, though, that bill, inadequate as it is, has become the Lieberman-
Warner bill because McCain dropped his support for it. If McCain's not even going to support the
most conservative cap-and-trade bill in the mix, then what is his nominal support for cap-and-trade
worth, exactly? It's hard to construct an appropriate analogy here, but if Barack Obama claimed to be "for"
something, and yet opposed every concrete effort to make it happen, I doubt GOP eminences grises would be
leaping forward to praise him.
WNDI 2008 11
Elections DA Aff

AT: Link-Uniqueness
( ) McCain benefits from energy debate now
James Pethokoukis, Capital Commerce Correspondent, 7-15-2008, “4 Reasons the Weak Economy Is Now
Helping McCain,” US News World Report, http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/7/15/4-reasons-
the-weak-economy-is-now-helping-mccain.html
1) Gas prices. Polls show the public wants lower gas prices and thinks oil drilling can help get them. And
McCain and the Republicans have positioned themselves as the party of more energy and lower prices.
They want to drill, and they want to build more nuclear plants. But instead of opening up new areas to
drilling, Democrats want to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And who can forget Obama's response when
asked what he thought of higher gas prices: "I would have preferred a gradual adjustment." One problem may
be that Obama fashioned his energy plan when oil was a mere $60 a barrel. McCain seems to be smartly
tweaking his policies on the fly—drilling, the gas tax moratorium—to appeal to voters furious about
higher prices at the pump.
WNDI 2008 12
Elections DA Aff

Economy Key
( ) Economy is key to the election
Megan Thee, Staff Writer, 7-16-2008, More Poll Findings: The Economy Trumps the War, by Far, New York
Times, http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/more-poll-findings-the-economy-trumps-the-war-by-far/
With the campaign now in full swing and a two-man race under way, voters say they worry most about the
economy and far less about the war in Iraq, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. In an
environment where gas prices now top $4 a gallon, mortgage companies are failing, and the financial
markets prove consistently shaky, more than half of those polled cited an economic issue as the most
important problem facing the country. The war in Iraq fell into the background, with only 13 percent of
those polled citing it as most important. Before the 2006 midterm elections when the Democrats won control
of Congress, only 7 percent of Americans said the economy was of paramount concern to them. Fifty-one
percent of those polled said the Democratic party is more likely than the Republican party to ensure a
strong economy, suggesting a liability for John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee. Voters
closely associate Mr. McCain with Mr. Bush. Six in 10 voters said they expect that if elected, Mr. McCain
would generally continue his predecessor’s economic policies.
WNDI 2008 13
Elections DA Aff

AT: Bush/Issues Key


( ) Public perception of Obama is the most important question for the election – issues
aren’t key
Myron Pitts, political columnist, 7-24-2008, “General Election Really a Referendum on Obama,”
FayObserver.comhttp://www.fayobserver.com/blog/comments?bid=7&eid=6969
The more I think about it, the more I think the general election is all about Obama. This is not an original
thought. MSNBC's Pat Buchanan and others have been saying the same thing. I think that you could have
taken any Republican from the primary, except perhaps the radical Ron Paul, and the poll numbers would
be roughly the same -- Obama with a slight edge or about even. I frankly think the GOP side could be blank
-- no nominee yet -- and the poll numbers would be the same. I don't doubt that McCain is probably the best
of a weak field on the other side, but really, the general election to date is not about him or his ideas. (He
should be thankful for the latter, considering that on the two major issues, the war and the economy, his ideas
are similar to Bush's.) The entire election is whether or not people will vote for the dramatic change
that Obama represents, or whether they won't. It all comes down to whether they see that change as
potentially good or potentially bad. This makes the GOP strategy fairly simple and conventional: Bring
him down. (Another Buchanan notion.)
WNDI 2008 14
Elections DA Aff

AT: Bush Key


( ) McCain needs the environment to distance himself from Bush
Lester Feder, staff writer, 6-20-2008, Huffington Post, “McCain’s Incoherent Environmentalism Is a Sign of
Larger Problems,”AlterNet,
http://www.alternet.org/environment/88885/?ses=8376171a6d7c9bae0dcb1e63ae0b3b59
Distancing himself from President Bush, John McCain pledged a new era of environmental stewardship
Monday as he outlined his plan to address global warming, a cause he has embraced since activists
hounded him during his 2000 run for president. This week, however, McCain infuriated environmental
groups by reversing his opposition to off-shore oil drilling and tying himself to President Bush, who
promptly called on Congress to lift the drilling ban. The McCain campaign has expended tremendous
resources on the global warming issue; it organized a "green" tour in May, and has just released a new ad
highlighting the candidate's position on the issue. From his campaign's perspective, the issue is a way to
show McCain's independence from President Bush while simultaneously signaling sympathy for
Americans who are struggling to fill their gas tanks. McCain's wholesale abandonment of a month-long
environmental PR strategy is more than a knee-jerk response to a new peak in oil prices. It is a sign that the
McCain campaign's efforts to define the 2008 election narrative are in disarray. Oddly, the political press --
which has a Midas touch for turning policy disputes into process stories -- seems to have missed the full
political significance of this policy shift.
WNDI 2008 15
Elections DA Aff

McCain Solves PHEVs


( ) McCain solves the case
Lorraine Wollert and Jeff Green, staff writers, 7-18-2008, “GM’s Volt Becomes Centerpiece in Presidential
Debate on Energy,” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aVV3eMUSiMgQ&refer=politics
McCain, 71, and Obama, 46, come at the issue from different directions. McCain wants to boost innovation
by offering purchasers of zero carbon-emission cars a $5,000 tax credit. A graduated tax credit would
apply to purchases of lower emission cars such as the Volt. He would establish a $300 million prize for
development of new battery technology for vehicles. He also wants to encourage construction of 100 new
nuclear plants and invest government money in development of clean-burning coal.
WNDI 2008 16
Elections DA Aff

McCain Solves Warming


( ) McCain supports CO2 emission reductions
Scott Horsley, NPR Correspondent, 5-13-2008, “McCain Backs Limits on Greenhouse Gas Emissions,”
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90394736
Republican presidential candidate John McCain is touting his plan to combat global warming as he
stumps for votes this week in the Pacific Northwest. McCain travels to Washington state Tuesday for an
environmental forum outside Seattle. On Monday, he was in Portland, Ore., where he visited the offices of a
windmill company. McCain hopes his conservative approach to global warming will appeal to moderate
Democrats as well as Republicans. It relies on the same market forces that he says helped create the problem.
"For all of the last century, the profit motive basically led in one direction — toward machines, methods and
industries that used oil and gas," McCain said. "Enormous good came from that industrial growth, and we are
all the beneficiaries of the national prosperity it built. But there were costs we weren't counting." Those
costs, in the form of greenhouse gases, can no longer be ignored, McCain said. He hopes to create a profit
motive that works in the opposite direction — encouraging polluters to cut their carbon emissions. As
president, McCain would cap overall production of greenhouse gases. Companies that produce more
pollution would then have to buy carbon credits from those who find a cleaner way of doing business.
"Instantly, automakers, coal companies, power plants and every other enterprise in America would
have an incentive to reduce carbon emissions, because when they go under those limits, they can sell
the balance of permitted emissions for cash," McCain said.
WNDI 2008 17
Elections DA Aff

McCain Solves Nuclear


( ) McCain supports nuclear plants
Michael Mccord, Political Correspondent, 12-4-2007, “McCain: nuclear has role in energy mix,” Seacoastonline,
http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071204/NEWS/712040393
PORTSMOUTH — Republican presidential hopeful John McCain wants America to get serious about
nuclear power. "How can you possibly talk about alternative energy sources without nuclear power?" said
McCain, who will take part in a candidate forum Thursday hosted by Seacoast Media Group, the parent
company of the Portsmouth Herald. "It can have a real impact on decreasing greenhouse gases." At the
forum, the Arizona senator will talk to voters about his energy security and global climate change policies.
He said that facilities such as Seabrook Station nuclear power plant will be a vital component of his energy
proposals, which he believes will enhance the country's long-term energy security and help reverse the effects
of global warming. "We can do storage or reprocessing," McCain said about the issue of disposing of
spent nuclear fuel rods. Look at what the French and other industrialized countries are doing. It's not
a matter of technology, but leadership, and the American people can be convinced this is one of the smart
routes to take."
WNDI 2008 18
Elections DA Aff

AT: Universal Health Care


( ) No health care bill – regardless of president
Perry Pacon, Washington Post Campaign Blogger, 7-8-2008, “Democrats Gear Up New Push for Universal
Health Care,” The Washington Post, http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-
trail/2008/07/08/democrats_gear_up_new_push_for.html
McCain has also said he would make health care a major issue if he wins the presidency, but Democrats
and labor groups oppose many of his proposals, as the Arizona senator is trying to transform the health care
system into one in which individuals buy their own health care in a less-regulated market, which means they
could have lower costs but also would assume more risk. The new coalition, while not outlining a specific
health care plan, has goals that resembled what Obama and the Democratic candidates proposed in the
primaries, offering subsidies to people so health insurance is affordable to the 47 million Americans who
currently don't have it, creating new regulations that would prevent insurance companies from charging high
prices or not offering insurance to people who already have chronic illnesses and allowing people to either
buy insurance from a private company like Kaiser or enroll in a government-managed health care plan that
would be run like but separate from Medicare. But, even if Obama were elected, there's no broad
agreement on exactly how a universal health care bill would work, which is the problem Democrats
faced in 1993 when the Clintons pushed the issue. Insurance companies, who drove much of the opposition
in 1993, have signaled they would not support an approach like Obama's, which add regulations for
them but does not require all people to purchase health insurance. Democratic Senate aides are pointing to
the legislation passed in Massachusetts in 2006 as a model. That legislation included increased subsidies for
low-income people but also a mandate that all people in the state purchase insurance, something Obama has
railed against on the campaign trail.