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UMKC SDI 2008 Reactors Negative

LouGie Lab Peak Coal

Peak Coal Answers

Peak Coal Answers..........................................................................................................................................................1
No coal peak....................................................................................................................................................................2
Inherency – no new coal plants.......................................................................................................................................3
Inherency – no new coal plants.......................................................................................................................................4
A2: Warming adv – peak coal takes it out......................................................................................................................5

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but it is producing less than 0. “The Coal Question and Climate Change. Peabody Energy. in large part because of fraud by the OPEC countries.html?iid=chix-sphere Over the next 25 years. at a cost of $137 billion. In contrast. with proposals to build 153 more in 42 states over the next decade. and there are large differences in prices. We have more than 200 years of coal reserves at our current burn rate. and earnings of $423 million.9171.com/node/2697 Oil reserves are rightly viewed skeptically at The Oil Drum. is. with lots of additional figures and source links. or South America. Chair for the Division of Engineering and Applied Science at Caltech. Coal reserves are compiled by the national geological surveys. to provide electricity to 93 million homes and support our energy-guzzling lifestyles.fired plant promising near zero pollution emissions--all in the hope of making the nation less oil dependent.00. Montana has larger coal reserves than Europe.8 billion--mostly from the West. The U.1% of that coal each year. with 2005 sales of $4. On the other hand. in contrast to the situation for oil. Our estimate of future coal production depends a lot on whether we think that the people of Montana will get into serious coal production.time. the Saudi Arabia of coal. Most coal is consumed in the country it is produced in. will carry electricity from the coalfields of Wyoming to consumers in California. However. up 28%.S. so much so that discovery history is routinely used to predict future production. and unlike oil reserves. from 52%. is in acquisition mode worldwide. the Department of Energy predicts the use of coal will provide an increasing portion of our power--up to nearly 60%. we will analyze production on a regional basis. the nation's largest coal company. the National Coal Council (McCall is a member) has laid out an aggressive energy plan using coal over the next two decades. Once oil is found. The Bush Administration has put down its own $2 billion bet. I will apply the techniques to coal that are routinely used here for oil. 2006 http://www. Coal is different from oil. and we have not found it all yet. they are honest. after all. For this reason. Coal production is expected to soar from 1. even in the same country.theoildrum. there are large coal fields that are almost undeveloped.6 billion. 6/25 2007 http://www. up 140%. Finally. and consider the consequences for future climate change. New transmission lines.1 billion tons a year to 1. and indicates that the reserves may be too high. Their arguments about bias are wrong – coal reserves are well known and accurately surveyed Dave Rutledge. the world market for coal is only partially developed. Convened by the Secretary of Energy. People who are interested in more details can get the spreadsheets with the raw data at my web site. a next-generation coal. 2 . There are 440 coal-fired plants across the nation. largely by pursuing FutureGen. it is likely to be produced quickly. “Is Coal Golden?” Time Oct.com/time/magazine/article/0. and much of the intuition that we may have developed about oil from nights pondering TOD posts is wrong for coal. Finding oil is hard.UMKC SDI 2008 Reactors Negative LouGie Lab Peak Coal No coal peak The DOE concludes that we have 200 years of coal reserves Cathy Booth Thomas. recently Dr. As an example. Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler and their Energy Watch Group have written an important paper “Coal: Resources and Future Production” that shows that there are major problems with the reliability of coal reserves.1541270. especially Wyoming's Powder River Basin. like the $6 billion Frontier Line. people knew where the coal was a century ago.” The Oil Drum. 02. Africa.

The state is planning 23.) No new coal plants – local opposition Lester R. New York. In May.UMKC SDI 2008 Reactors Negative LouGie Lab Peak Coal Inherency – no new coal plants No new coal plants – legal setbacks and local opposition means that plans for over 100 plants have been scrapped Lester R. only 3 percent chose coal. Information on the grassroots momentum to oppose coal plants is tracked on the Web site Coal Moratorium NOW! States that are working to reduce carbon emissions are banding together to discourage other states from building new coal plants simply because it would cancel their own carbon reduction efforts. “U. dubbed “one of the world's most influential thinkers” by the Washington Post and the recipient of 23 honorary degrees. Department of Energy listed 151 coal-fired power plants in the planning stages and talked about a resurgence in coal-fired electricity. Wisconsin. dubbed “one of the world's most influential thinkers” by the Washington Post and the recipient of 23 honorary degrees. and the remaining plants will likely be challenged as they reach the permitting stage. a non-profit environmental legal group. And in a letter on January 22. founder of the Earth Policy Institute. the national leader on this issue.org/Updates/2008/Update70. Another emerging reason is soaring construction costs. 3 . and the 1994 Blue Planet Prize. is actively opposing new coal plants and has announced that the state plans to build the world’s largest solar-thermal power plant. the Natural Resources Defense Council. the 1987 UN Environment Prize. farm. And now even those 3 proposed plants may be challenged. the energy focus within the Texas state government is shifting to wind power. In late 2006. the U. a MacArthur Fellowship. (See data. who is keenly aware of Florida’s vulnerability to rising seas. Brown. The permits were subsequently denied. And then there are intensifying health concerns about mercury emissions and the 23. the Borgström Prize by the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry. a MacArthur Fellowship. the Borgström Prize by the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry.S. is working with hundreds of local groups to mount legal challenges in state after state. Meanwhile.S.” Earth Policy Institute 2/14/08 http://www. In addition to the 59 plants that were dropped. One of the first major coal industry setbacks came in early 2007. 2008. The principal reason for opposing new coal plants is the mounting concern about climate change. But during 2007. Florida’s Public Service Commission refused to license a huge $5. Moving Toward Ban on New Coal-Fired Power Plants. Moving Toward Ban on New Coal-Fired Power Plants. and community organizations and a fast-growing number of state governments. close to 50 more coal plants are being contested in the courts. Brown.earth- policy.htm The Sierra Club. Other national groups that are actively involved include the Rainforest Action Network. the 1987 UN Environment Prize. coal-fired power plants were either refused licenses by state governments or quietly abandoned. as determined in an April 2007 Supreme Court ruling.earth- policy.org/Updates/2008/Update70. The public at large is turning against coal. the Presidential Medal of Italy. citing that carbon dioxide is an air pollutant and should be regulated.S. led to the quiet withdrawal of four other proposals for coal plants in the state. a similar grouping of states urged South Carolina’s Department of Health and Environmental Control to refuse a permit for the proposed 600-megawatt Pee Dee coal plant.000 megawatts of new wind-generating capacity (equal to 23 coal-fired power plants). the 1989 World Wide Fund for Nature Gold Medal. when environmental groups convinced Texas-based utility TXU to reduce the number of planned coal-fired power plants in Texas from 11 to 3. “U.600 U. 59 proposed U. and several other northeastern states wrote to Kansas health officials urging them to deny permits for two new coal power plants of 700 megawatts each. efficiency.htm In a report compiled in early 2007. This argument by Earthjustice.S. the attorneys general of California. combined with widely expressed public opposition to any more coal-fired power plants in Florida.7-billion. and Environmental Defense. In a September 2007 national poll by the Opinion Research Corporation about which electricity source people would prefer. 1. health.S. and the 1994 Blue Planet Prize. Republican Governor Charlie Crist. the Presidential Medal of Italy.960-megawatt coal plant because the utility could not prove that building the plant would be cheaper than investing in conservation. for instance. founder of the Earth Policy Institute. What began as a few local ripples of resistance to coal-fired power is quickly evolving into a national tidal wave of grassroots opposition from environmental. the 1989 World Wide Fund for Nature Gold Medal. and renewable energy sources. deaths per year from power plant air pollution.” Earth Policy Institute 2/14/08 http://www.

founder of the Earth Policy Institute. who had been opposing three coal-fired power plants in his own state. investment banks Morgan Stanley.htm In August 2007. Investment banks and political leaders are beginning to see what has been obvious for some time to climate scientists. the 1989 World Wide Fund for Nature Gold Medal. Citigroup downgraded coal company stocks across the board and recommended that its clients switch to other energy stocks. In early November 2007. “U. a MacArthur Fellowship. On February 13.” Earth Policy Institute 2/14/08 http://www. dubbed “one of the world's most influential thinkers” by the Washington Post and the recipient of 23 honorary degrees.org/Updates/2008/Update70.org/Updates/2008/Update70. Morgan Chase announced that any future lending for coal-fired power would be contingent on the utilities demonstrating that the plants would be economically viable with the higher costs associated with future federal restrictions on carbon emissions. 4 . “U. Moving Toward Ban on New Coal-Fired Power Plants. Representative Henry Waxman of California announced his intention to “introduce legislation that establishes a moratorium on the approval of new coal-fired power plants under the Clean Air Act until EPA finalizes regulations to address the greenhouse gas emissions from these sources. In July 2007. the Borgström Prize by the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry. founder of the Earth Policy Institute.earth- policy.” Earth Policy Institute 2/14/08 http://www.P. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada. it will mark the beginning of the end for coal-fired power in the United States. In early February 2008. In January 2008.S. Merrill Lynch also downgraded coal stocks. the 1989 World Wide Fund for Nature Gold Medal. Citi. Brown. and the 1994 Blue Planet Prize. dubbed “one of the world's most influential thinkers” by the Washington Post and the recipient of 23 honorary degrees. the 1987 UN Environment Prize. Bank of America announced it would follow suit. the Presidential Medal of Italy. Moving Toward Ban on New Coal-Fired Power Plants.S. a MacArthur Fellowship. and J. coal took a heavy political hit when U.htm Coal’s future is also suffering as Wall Street turns its back on the industry. such as NASA’s James Hansen who says that it makes no sense to build coal-fired power plants when we will have to bulldoze them in a few years. No new coal plants – Congressional opposition Lester R. and the 1994 Blue Planet Prize.UMKC SDI 2008 Reactors Negative LouGie Lab Peak Coal Inherency – no new coal plants No new coal plants – no support from Wall Street Lester R. announced that he was now against building coal- fired power plants anywhere in the world. the Borgström Prize by the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry.earth- policy. the 1987 UN Environment Prize.S. the Presidential Medal of Italy.” If a national moratorium is passed by Congress. Brown.

For the sake of comparison. gas. one of the world’s foremost climate scientists. this means that oil.com/richard_heinbergs_museletter_179_burning_the_furniture For the most part. and coal. the following charts from NASA’s James Hansen. climate policy experts have relied upon robust estimates of future global coal supplies. the critical threshold target for maximum allowable increase cited by many climate scientists. the current atmospheric CO2 level is 390 ppm.” QuickTimeª and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. with a very slow decline thereafter. 5 . Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute. If ASPO/EWG is correct. it won’t be able to burn enough carbon to trigger warming Richard Heinberg. In addition. a 420–440 ppm peak in CO2 levels may be consistent with a global average surface temperature increase of 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels.” and “coal phaseout. in the “business-as-usual” scenario absolute levels of production at the time of peaking are much higher than those forecast by ASPO and EWG.” 3/33/2007 http://globalpublicmedia. the ASPO/EWG peaking levels correspond to about 420–440 ppm of CO2 versus 575 ppm in Hanson’s first chart. show CO2 levels that will result from the burning of remaining fossil fuels given widely accepted reserves levels for oil. QuickTimeª and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. In both charts oil production is not projected to peak until 2020-2030.UMKC SDI 2008 Reactors Negative LouGie Lab Peak Coal A2: Warming adv – peak coal takes it out Their peak coal argument takes out the warming advantage – if the world really runs out of fossile fuels. and gas resource-and- production limitations may result in declines in CO2 emissions that are more or less in line with what is considered politically feasible for voluntary emissions reductions (the IEA “alternative policy” scenario). “Richard Heinberg's Museletter #179: Burning the Furniture. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). in the first chart. coal. under two scenarios: “business-as-usual. emissions from coal production do not peak until 2100. For example. former Core Faculty member of New College of California.