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ADI 08

Food Prices toolkit

Food Prices Toolkit – Spring 3
Food Prices Toolkit – Spring 3 .............................................................................................................................1
** Uniqueness and Links **..................................................................................................................................5
Food prices High....................................................................................................................................................6
Food Prices High....................................................................................................................................................7
Food Prices Low.....................................................................................................................................................8
Food Prices Low.....................................................................................................................................................9
Food prices DA link ............................................................................................................................................10
AT – Food Prices – Alt cause land shortages.....................................................................................................11
Alt Cause – Bad Weather....................................................................................................................................12
Alt Cause – Infrastructure deficiency................................................................................................................13
AT – Food Prices – Human Ingenuity Solves....................................................................................................14
AT – Food Prices – Alt Cause population..........................................................................................................15
AT – Food prices – Alt Cause Generic...............................................................................................................16
AT – Food Prices – Alt Cause generic................................................................................................................16
AT – Food Price – Oil Alt cause..........................................................................................................................18
AT – Food Price – Oil Alt cause..........................................................................................................................19
Sugar DA - Ethanol..............................................................................................................................................21
Sugar DA - Ethanol..............................................................................................................................................22
Sugar Ethanol DA link Extension.......................................................................................................................23
Brazil Econ Strong now.......................................................................................................................................24
Corn Prices low now............................................................................................................................................25
Corn Prices low now............................................................................................................................................26
corn prices low now.............................................................................................................................................27
Corn Price link ....................................................................................................................................................28
AT: IOWA LOSS..................................................................................................................................................29
Corn Prices high ..................................................................................................................................................30
Wheat Price DA Impact - Pakistan....................................................................................................................31
Wheat prices high now........................................................................................................................................32
Wheat price low....................................................................................................................................................33
High Wheat  instability ..................................................................................................................................34


ADI 08
Food Prices toolkit

High Wheat  Famine........................................................................................................................................35
High Wheat kills economy...................................................................................................................................36
Wheat shortage temporary.................................................................................................................................37
Rice Prices low now.............................................................................................................................................38
Rice Price low now...............................................................................................................................................39
Rice Price low now...............................................................................................................................................40
Rice Price DA.......................................................................................................................................................41
Rice Price DA.......................................................................................................................................................42
Rice Subsidies key to Price..................................................................................................................................43
Rice Subsidies key to Price..................................................................................................................................44
High Prices hurt Rice Producers........................................................................................................................45
Rice key to Cali Economy....................................................................................................................................46
Fish Price DA........................................................................................................................................................47
Cotton Price DA Link..........................................................................................................................................48
Plan Increases cotton prices................................................................................................................................49
Cotton Price low now...........................................................................................................................................50
Cotton Prices high now........................................................................................................................................51
Cotton Price High now........................................................................................................................................52
**Generic Food Price Impacts**........................................................................................................................52
Famine – Deontology...........................................................................................................................................58
Famine –Deontology ...........................................................................................................................................59
Famine - Deontology............................................................................................................................................60
Africa War............................................................................................................................................................61
Africa War............................................................................................................................................................62
Resource Wars......................................................................................................................................................63
Resource Wars......................................................................................................................................................64
Resource Wars......................................................................................................................................................65
Failed States..........................................................................................................................................................66
Food Riots.............................................................................................................................................................67

ADI 08
Food Prices toolkit

Food Riots.............................................................................................................................................................68
Economy Impact..................................................................................................................................................69
Pakistan ................................................................................................................................................................70
India Impact Module...........................................................................................................................................71
China Module.......................................................................................................................................................74
China key to food security ..................................................................................................................................76
HIV/AIDS ............................................................................................................................................................78
Biodiversity ..........................................................................................................................................................81
Genocide ...............................................................................................................................................................83
Food Security - Generic.......................................................................................................................................84
Food Insecurity: War...........................................................................................................................................85
Food Insecurity: War...........................................................................................................................................86
Food Insecurity: Biodiversity Impact................................................................................................................87
Food Security: Terrorism Impact.......................................................................................................................88
Food Insecurity: Genocide Impact.....................................................................................................................89
**High Prices Good**.........................................................................................................................................90
High Food Prices Solve Poverty..........................................................................................................................91
High Food Prices Solve Poverty..........................................................................................................................92
High Food Prices Good  African Food security............................................................................................93
High Food Prices Good  African food security.............................................................................................94
High Food Prices Good  increase farm econ.................................................................................................95
High Prices Good – Brazil...................................................................................................................................96
**Other **............................................................................................................................................................97
HUNGER INEVITABLE....................................................................................................................................98
AT Food Prices DA..............................................................................................................................................99


.......................100 WAR TURNS CASE..................................................................................................................................101 4 ....ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit AT Food Price DA............................................................................................................................

ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit ** Uniqueness and Links ** 5 .

and Robert Olson. http://www.columbiamissourian. The index measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services. A broad set of trends are acting to raise food prices.S. Even a bumper harvest expected this year will do little to ease the plight of the world's poor. http://www. less than initial government estimates. Dry Weather in Australia.S. The various factors contributing to the rise in food prices include high oil prices. Meat prices will see particularly significant increases.eyeonfda. the FAO and OECD said that world ethanol production has tripled between 2000 and 2007 and is expected to double again in the next decade.(Clement Bezold.” The Daily Green. http://www. If the projected increase for 2008 proves true. ”The Future of Food Prices Crop Output Threatened by Wet Weather in Midwest.” he said. The Daily Green 6/6. June COLUMBIA — Consumers all over the world can expect to pay more for food in coming years. MU Agricultural Economics professor Joe Parcell credits several factors for the rise in food prices: exports. It may not reflect every consumer’s experience because not everyone spends money the same way. 2008 . soil and fishery conditions.50 a bushel of corn from a few years ago.” Columbia Missourian. Fidler. “Food prices expected to rise. feed use. Bezold. “I don’t think anyone could have guessed that exports would be so strong. “Food 2028: Key Forecasts. biofuels. Total grain output may be between 10 million metric tons and 12 million tons this harvest. according to the U. Parcell blames the weak dollar and exports that are driven by a strong global economy. for foreign buyers. “The weak dollar is causing $4 a bushel of corn to look as cheap. Climate change. An excerpt of FAO's Food Outlook report indicated: "Prices in real terms are projected to be 10 percent to 35 percent higher than in the past decade. This news comes after the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggested that in the next 10 years food prices will remain well above the levels of the last decade." Food prices are expected to continue to escalate Columbia Missourian 08-(Laura Chapius. as $2.” Institute for Alternative Futures. retailers must make up for the difference in the form of higher food costs.multiple reasons. According to the report. and energy generally.html) Food prices will increase sharply over the next two decades. urbanization. dry weather in western Australia is wreaking havoc with that area's grain crops. and each of these trends has a great deal of momentum. after a dry May. according to All Africa. Key trends include: • Increasing demand from rising affluence and changing diets in developing nations • Rapidly rising oil/energy prices •Climate instability • Water scarcity • Conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses • Competition of biofuel crops with food crops • Cutbacks in food exports • Decline and collapse of fisheries 6 . consumers will see the highest increase in food prices since 1990. The Economic Research Service of the U. challenges from climate change. low stock levels and speculation could also add to price volatility. This will be driven by increased costs of farming inputs. Major initiatives to address the challenges these trends pose can alleviate price pressures. but also the growth in demand for biofuels. and land.” The U.(Annie Bell increase-44060608) Meanwhile. Bureau of Labor Web site. January 9. changing diets. but cannot take hold fast enough to prevent significant price increases in the years ahead.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food prices High Food prices to remain 35 percent higher than the past decade. Department of Agriculture expects prices to rise another 4 percent this year. transportation.thedailygreen. Devin economic growth and expanding populations. Food Prices will continue to rise. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the food cost increase to rise nearly 50 percent more than the overall rate of inflation based on the consumer price index. 6-6-08. and Olson 08. With commodity prices hitting record levels and energy costs increasing.

56. nearly double last year's figure of $7. said USDA statistician Daryl Brinkman. 7 . according to the report. Wheat slipped from historic highs in March but is still up steeply from last year. and ConAgra Food Inc. Even though corn farmers seem able to pass on the higher cost of their fertilizers and fuel. "Demand for (meat) is not quite there. Corn sold for an average of $5. Corn is up 69%. are seeing more demand than ever for their crops. Corn and soybeans hit record prices. The annual report measures the price that farmers receive for their goods. Grain is up 42%.14 a bushel in 2006 and soybeans sold for $5. feed and fertilizer propelled grain prices to all-time highs in June. Meat prices haven't nearly kept pace with the cost of grain.32 in 2007. raising the overall price of crops and livestock by 16 percent this year compared to last year.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food Prices High Overall crop and livestock prices have increased 16% this year. so is domestic use of the crops for biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel.9 percent in June alone. Prices for farm products rose 1. packaging and marketing costs are also factored in. Grain prices gained 42 percent for the year overall.S. and soybeans have doubled in price. not the ultimate price that consumers pay for food. Corn went for just $2. And there is plenty of supply to meet that demand. up 69 percent from $3. The cost for cattle and hogs has largely stagnated.6 percent during June.. Lexis Rising costs for fuel. While exports are increasing. 2008. While soaring grain prices mean big profits for farmers and agribusiness firms like Archer Daniels Midland Co. on the other hand. so that is keeping those prices pretty steady.61 a bushel in June.61. Soybeans sold for $14. Associated Press Financial Wire. which is the biggest input cost for meat processors. Crops and livestock costs amount to a fraction of the final cost of food. meat companies haven't been able to do the same. Domestic biofuels are a main cause. after transportation. The USDA report shows corn and soybean prices climbing rapidly since 2007. according to a recent USDA report.20 a bushel. The price of livestock rose less than 1 percent. “Food prices rise 16 percent during 2008” July 31. Department of Agriculture report released Thursday. Corn and soybean farmers." Brinkman said. Grain staples including wheat and soybeans rose 1. according to a U. the trend is hurting meat companies Like Tyson Foods Inc.

Polish News Bulletin 6-12(June 12. (see. if good crop production conditions exist in the Northern Hemisphere during the next 6 months. In this perspective.) With such low world stocks of food commodities. also Trostle 2008)1. food prices might continue to rise sharply from the current high level. Recent increase in agricultural prices are strong. respectively. However. 4). The prices of wheat and soybeans declined by almost 30% and almost 20%. since their peak at the end of February this year.” USDA. Although the food commodity index has risen more than 60 percent in the last 2 years.pdf (Martin. Meijl et al. food commodity prices could retreat signifi cantly from their current highs. however. Since 1999 food commodity prices have risen 98 percent (as of March 2008). “Food Prices to Fall in Coming Months. If a significant shortfall occurs this year due to weather or disease. 8 . The prices. food prices are vulnerable to a production shortfall in one or more major production areas. Although trade fl ows can mitigate some of these effects. This makes food9price inflation socially and politically sensitive. of many (major) agricultural commodities have risen quickly over recent years (see Figure 1). food prices should start falling in the coming months. although real food prices are not extremely high in a historical perspective and other commodities have risen more. the index for all commodities has also risen 60 percent and the index for crude oil has risen even more (see. However. The transmission effect depends on the transparency of markets.europabio.1 The volatility is also high because the world market is a relatively small residual market in a world distorted by agricultural policies. p. http://www. lexis) According to a monthly report by the Institute of Agriculture Economics and Food Management (IERiGZ). Food prices are low in real terms Banse. food is not seen as an inflation-causing factor this year. “Why are current world food prices so high?”. and the July-August decrease may be greater than last year.2 The combination of high technological change and inelastic demand cause real world prices to decline in the long run (trend). 2003). However. Trostle 08(Ronald Trostle. In mid-year the price of meat (especially pork) may grow at a faster pace. an increase in the price of food – a basic necessity – causes hardships for many lower income consumers around the world. Local prices are linked with these world prices. Figure 3 shows that spot prices in early 2008 for soybean and wheat are declining again while the spot prices for rice and crude oil continue to rise. real agricultural prices are still low compared to the peaks in prices of the mid970s. and Hans. the index for all commodities has risen 286 percent.” Polish News Bulletin. but even with the increase that we have observed in the last three years. Although in April food price growth rate exceeded the general inflation rate due to the seasonal fruit and vegetable price rises. The institute expects that the demand for food will fall in the coming months on account of the growing general costs of living. Food Prices will drop with good crop production conditions. This is why much of the world’s attention is now focused on the increase in food prices more than on the more rapid increase in prices of other commodities. new or existing trade restrictions or barriers can exacerbate price impacts. the recent rise in food commodity prices is moderate. and the index for crude oil has risen 547 percent. LEI) World agricultural prices are very volatile which is due to traditional characteristics of agricultural markets such as inelastic (short run) supply and demand curves (see. The authors of the report cite the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the National Bank of Poland (NBP)'s May results on consumer confidence to state that consumption growth may slow down. LEI Agricultural Economics Research Institute. p. Head of division Agricultural Policy at LEI.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food Prices Low Food Prices expected to drop in the near future. May 2008. Trostle 2008. Nowicki. market power and accessibility. due to the seasonal supply decrease. Peter. owing to promising harvests. Figure 2 depicts the price index for food commodities along with an index for the average of all commodities and an index for crude oil. even though drought has brought harvest forecasts down. van Meijl. “Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices. 2008. 5/ Senior Researcher.

with spill over effects on crops and livestock. 5/29/08. Despite conceding that weather conditions and agricultural product supply may become more variable with climate change." However such causes of food price inflation are not new and they are not permanent. 9 .ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food Prices Low Food prices will decline Halliday. the outlook authors say they see no reason to believe that resolution seen in the past will not recur in the next few years. http://www. “Food prices will fall but remain above average.asp?n=85575-oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-food- prices (Jess. meatprocessor. The outlook says that the increase in prices since 2005/6 is partly the result of adverse weather conditions in major grain producing regions. and prices have come down once the situation returns to normality and supply response. these developments alone would have triggered strong price reactions. Staff Reporter.meatprocess. they have happened in the past. "In the context of low global stocks. OECD/FAO”.com/news/ng.

financing the consolidation of family farms. Gas. This isn't rocket science. This may have negative consequences for farmers elsewhere in the world. 2007 Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels The poor can be adversely affected by agricultural trade liberalization because prices of most agricultural commodities are likely to increase. it's almost definitional. Development Economics. including farmworkers. World Bank. Current farm policies are so poorly designed that they actually worsen the conditions they claim to solve. they cost Americans billions each year in higher taxes and higher food costs. and Farmers. thereby producing more food than otherwise would be produced. That means that fewer people go hungry than would be the case without these subsidies. Too.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food prices DA link Lifting subsidies massively risks raising food prices and creating more food insecurity. Net buyers of food. but the majority of subsidies go to commercial farms with average incomes of $200. * Farm subsidies are intended to help struggling family farmers. they promote overproduction and therefore lower prices further. The U. Riedl. For example: * Farm subsidies are intended to alleviate farmer poverty. but it does mean that supply is greater and prices are lower than they would be in the absence of the subsidies. the World Bank and many NGOs to get apoplectic have the effect of lowering world food prices. 2007. Conde Nast Portfolio May 14th 2008 The truth is that the U.S. Donald Mitchell of the Development Prospects Group. but rising agricultural commodity prices could have a negative effect on food security in developing countries that are net food importers. they harm them by excluding them from most subsidies.” Brian M. As mentioned earlier in the chapter. Instead. and William A. liberalization of trade in sugar is expected to increase world sugar prices by as much as 40 percent. Consumers. Center for International Trade. there are intra-country variations in addition to differences across countries. Ward 2007. very few of whom export temperate-zone or competing products on which there are currently high tariffs. and raising land values to levels that prevent young people from entering farming. Subsidies keep food prices low. The leastdeveloped countries.S. Those countries that are already integrated into international markets and possess good infrastructure are likely to benefit. and European subsidies that cause the Post. In all cases. will be adversely affected by rising food prices. Masami Kojima of the Oil. the NYT. and Mining Policy Division. would generally be worse off (FAO 2003).4 Prices are expected to rise more steeply for the food products that developing countries import than for the commodities they export. “How Farm Subsidies Harm Taxpayers. 10 . the negative effects are not confined to urban areas only. * Farm subsidies are intended to raise farmer incomes by remedying low crop prices. Professor and Director. Heritage Foundation) This year's expiration of federal agriculture policies gives Congress an important opportunity to take a fresh look at the $25 billion spent annually on farm subsidies. World Bank. Clemson University. Instead. * Farm subsidies are intended to be consumer-friendly and taxpayer- friendly. Instead. and European effectively pay their farmers to keep farming.000 and net worths of nearly $2 million. SUBSIDIES LOWER CROP PRICES REIDL 07 (June 20.

however. 2007). In theory there might be enough land available around the globe to feed an everincreasing world population and produce sufficient biomass feedstock simultaneously. 11 . Technically. competition for arable land among food.8 EJ in 2005. General Secretariat. Increasing demand for natural fibres and other materials. can all be expected to reduce the land available at a given rental cost. fibre. Round Table on Sustainable Development. As the FAO (2000) warns. The rapid growth of the biofuels industry is likely to keep these prices high and rising throughout at least the next decade (OECD/FAO. as both compete for the same inputs. These estimates should be viewed with caution. biomaterials and energy production cannot be avoided. the models used to calculate land availability tend to over-estimate the amount of land that could be used for agriculture and under- estimate the area of land that is already in use (by 10-20%). but it is more likely that land-use constraints will limit the amount of new land that can be brought into production leading to a “food-versus-fuel” debate. In short. Gneral Secretariat. up to 20 EJ from conventional ethanol and biodiesel. land use constraints make it almost impossible. Any diversion of land from food or feed production to production of energy biomass will influence food prices from the start. land use will be driven by the net private benefit owners can derive from their land. Round Table on Sustainable Development. for foods grown less intensively or using organic production methods. and for carbon sequestration. Doornbosch and Steenblik September 2007. has been judged possible by 2050. Moreover. in practice it is often extremely difficult to make land that is technically available for agriculture actually available in practice. without significant impacts on the wider global economy. Paris. or 11% of total demand for liquid fuels in the transport sector. Global production of biofuels amounted to 0. thus causing an unavoidable food-versus fuel debate. Paris. Moreover. for conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. Doornbosch and Steenblik September 2007. or roughly 1% of total road transport fuel consumption. Other competing demands will exist that put constraints on future changes in land use. Although in theory there is enough land to feed everyone.1 An expansion on this scale could not be achieved.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit AT – Food Prices – Alt cause land shortages It is impossible to avoid competition for land with food and other agriculture. The effects on farm commodity prices can already be seen today.

that is likely to be more than offset by deaths in heat waves. Although not all the effects of climate change will be bad. The panel included some of the nation's leading climate researchers. "We have already observed the consequences. An example of the kind of crop disruption to expect: This spring's unusually wet weather in Eastern Washington discouraged bees from flying. Tom.nwsource. too.but could be endangered by more heat waves or other climate disruptions. both of which greatly complicate water management. land and water. include the country growing warmer and wetter over the past century. many seeming pluses actually aren't. water and farms over the next half-century. Other results of the study include: Whereas warmer winter temperatures will spare some livestock from freezing to death. Some effects already can be felt.S. "It just scares the heck out of me. onions and fruit are more likely to be affected than grains. Maria Cantwell. of the Agriculture Department's Agricultural Research Service. "This is not a problem of tomorrow but a problem for today." said Rep. Horticultural crops such as tomatoes. D-Wash.are getting less. Grain crops may benefit from warmer temperatures. the report said. p. But. which synthesizes results of more than 1. headed by Sen. The West's system of capturing runoff from snowmelt is likely to be thrown out of whack by increased winter rains and higher spring temperatures melting snow faster.and higher prices.html (Robert. http://seattlepi. Staff Reporters 5/28/08. water shortages”. one of three lead authors.with the greatest water shortages -. Because of climate disruption of agriculture. More and hotter heat waves are occurring. says the report released Tuesday. D-Wash. growing more quickly -. said the review by 38 scientists. Increased fires and infestations of insects no longer killed off by cold winters could change the face of Western forests. "We have a very clearly observed trend toward earlier snowmelt and more winter rain. the West and Southwest -." said David Schimel of the National Ecological Observatory Network. “Get used to high food costs. Even if greenhouse gas production stopped now. An intense and sudden acidification of the Pacific resulting from climate change presages a possible breakdown in the marine food web. they are generally going to be smaller plants. While the South and East are receiving more rain and snow.and be ready for water Result: A smaller cherry harvest -. consumers can count on higher food prices. Department of Agriculture report cataloged effects thought by scientists to be likely over the next 25 to 50 years on agriculture. noting that nearly 10 percent of protein in the human diet is from the oceans. says a sweeping new scientific report rounding up likely effects of climate change on the United States' land. Seattle Pi) Shocked by rising food prices? Get used to it -. experts said at the hearing. mostly from the federal government and universities. the research team said." Other early effects." The U. For example.000 individual studies. "as they grow quicker.bad weather McClure and Paulson.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Alt Cause – Bad Weather Alt causality." said Jerry Hatfield. climate change already has been set in motion.. more carbon dioxide makes plants grow faster. That led to fewer cherry trees being fertilized through pollination. Jay Inslee. 12 . And it's not just humans' food that's at risk. researchers said in a news conference. said witnesses at a congressional field hearing in Seattle on Tuesday.

readbangkokpost. And the transitory food insecure fall below the food consumption threshold as a result of an economic or natural shock such as a drought. as rapidly increasing prices caused a global food crisis. have physical. and economic access to sufficient. 13 . and.such as improved irrigation and drought-tolerant crops . obligates these states to progressively realise the right to food. Rising productivity increases rural incomes and lowers food as well as insurance and safety nets. The contributions that agriculture makes to food security need to be complemented by medium-term programmes to raise incomes of the poor. to protect the chronic and transitory poor. the lack of access to food is a greater problem than food availability. The International Covenant on Economic. The commonly accepted definition of food security is when all people. food security emerged as a concept. in particular through biofortification that improves crop nutrient content. and Cultural Rights. sometimes with long-lasting consequences. 5/8/08. Attention focused first on food availability but then quickly moved to food access and food use. For most of the world's malnourished people.outweighs prices Fernquest. The same applies to households with poor access to food markets. Nutritionally improved crops give access to better diets. http://www. Other investments . The channels are complex and multiple. at all times. ratified by 153 states. social. safe. The seasonally food insecure fall below adequate consumption levels in the lean season. Social. and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Alt Cause – Infrastructure deficiency Infrastructure issues prevent food acquisition. including food aid.php (Jon. BA and MSc Applied Economics. to the human right to adequate food. making food more accessible to the poor. The chronically food insecure never have enough to eat. Investments in agriculture are important to increase food security. p. most recently. Productivity gains are key to food security in countries with a foreign exchange shortage or limited infrastructure to import food. “Achieving World Security” The World Bank) In the mid-1970s.reduce price and income variability by mitigating the impact of a drought.

Of course at first. The organic milk costs twice as much.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit AT – Food Prices – Human Ingenuity Solves Human ingenuity solves. So if food costs stay high. luxury foods and fancy restaurants will do just fine.because it is not worth flying across the country to eat at McDonald's. both formerly economists at UCLA. Wealthier families in particular will turn away from Safeway and look toward Whole Foods. That's the shorter run trend. But here's what's less commonly understood: In the longer run. They cut back on food costs across the board. as we've been seeing. If you are going to buy milk in any case. for a lot of people the future will be fresh pasta. people are cutting back on their food expenditures. caviar and organic tomatoes. people are horrified by the higher prices. American Public Media) We all know that food prices are rising fast. We're also in the middle of a recession and that won't last forever.people adjust behaviors to scarcity Cowen." named after its two founders Armen Alchian and William Allen. 7/10/08 p. Economists refer to this result as the "Alchian and Allen theorem. in relative terms. what originally looked expensive suddenly appears cheap in relative terms. The price comparison is then $6 to $4. people will get used to the general idea that food costs so much. The economic logic is this: If all food becomes more expensive. “Higher food prices won't always hurt”. organic food. it also explains why people tend to spend more when they are on vacation -. The organic milk seems only a little more expensive. you might even switch to the organic product. professor of economics at George Mason University. Now add on a $2 transport cost to each (Tyler. it doesn't seem so outrageously high. They'll start to think about spending more for the organic milk because. They're buying fewer luxuries and eating at home more often. There's a lot of evidence that the theorem describes actual consumer behavior. 14 .publicradio. As a result. not plain oatmeal and a can of beans. Consider a simple example: If food costs nothing to transport. say cheap milk would be $2 and organic milk would be $4. http://marketplace. Over time.

ADI 08
Food Prices toolkit

AT – Food Prices – Alt Cause population

Alt cause- population growth causes starvation
Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, 5/18/08 p.
prices&page=2 (Jeffrey, “Surging Food Prices Mean Global Instability”, The Scientific American)

Several factors are at play in the skyrocketing prices, reflecting both rising global demand and falling supplies of food grains. World
incomes have been rising at around 5 percent annually in recent years, and 4 percent in per capita terms, leading to an increased global
demand for food and for meat as a share of the diet. China’s economic growth, of course, has been double the world’s average. The rising demand for
meat exacerbates the pressures on grain and oil-seed prices since several kilograms of animal feed are required to produce each kilogram of meat. Feed
grains have risen from around 30 percent of total global grain production to around 40 percent today. Land that would otherwise be planted to the main grains is shifting
to soya bean and other oil seeds used for animal feed. It is forecast, for example, that U.S. farmers will cut maize plantings by 8 million acres, while raising soya-bean
production by about the same amount. The grain supply side has also been disrupted by climate shocks, such as Australia’s massive droughts.


ADI 08
Food Prices toolkit

AT – Food prices – Alt Cause Generic
KHOSLA 08 (Vinod Khosla, an Indian-American venture capitalist. He is an influential personality in Silicon
Valley. He was one of the co-founders of Sun Microsystems and became a general partner of the venture capital
firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers in 1986. “Khosla Speaks,” Forbes, May 21, 2008)

While corn prices certainly have some impact on biofuels, their impact is constantly overstated by
sources like the WSJ. In fact, they would do well to see what the U.S. Department of Agriculture has actually said on the subject. Yesterday, USDA
Chief Economist Joe Glauber noted: "On the international level, the President's Council of Economic
Advisors estimates that only 3% of the more than 40% increase we have seen in world food prices this
year is due to the increased demand on corn for ethanol." As the USDA noted previously: "Given that
foods using corn as an ingredient make up less than a third of retail food spending, overall retail food
prices would rise less than one percentage point per year above the normal rate of food price inflation
when corn prices increase by 50%."

HOLT-GIMENEZ AND PEABODY 08 (“From Food Rebellions to Food Sovereignty: Urgent call to fix a broken food system”
Posted May 16th, 2008, Eric Holt-Giménez and Loren Peabody, Executive Director, Food First/Institute for Food and Development

The immediate reasons for food price inflation include; droughts in major wheat-producing countries in
2005-06, low grain reserves (we have less than 54 days worth, globally); high oil prices; a doubling of per-capita meat
consumption in some developing countries, and the diversion of 5% of the world’s cereals to agrofuels.
Though an increase in agricultural growth is projected for 2008, most experts agree food prices will continue to rise. Drought,
meat diets, low reserves, and agrofuels are only the proximate causes of food price inflation. These factors
do not explain why—in an increasingly productive and affluent global food system—next year up to one
billion people will likely go hungry. To solve the problem of hunger, we need to address the root cause of
the food crisis: the corporate monopolization of the world’s food systems.

There are many reasons for high food prices, not just corn based ethanol
Farm Press, July 30, 2008 (“There's more to high food costs than corn prices,” Farm Press, d/l:

For one, there are many, many factors contributing to high food prices that are not correlated with high commodity prices. There are
high fuel costs required to transport commodities from the field to end users and high energy costs for processing commodities into
food, etc. And who do you think has to pay actor Sam Elliot to say, “Beef, it’s what’s for dinner.” That’s right, it’s the consumer.
Secondly, while high commodity prices do have some impact on higher food prices, it’s not such a clear cause

AT – Food Prices – Alt Cause generic
Food Prices rise as a direct result of recent weather conditions and high oil prices – ethanol production is only a secondary
cause of rising food prices.

MSNBC 10-2-2007

ADI 08
Food Prices toolkit

WASHINGTON - Increased production of corn-based ethanol has raised U.S. food prices this year but not nearly as much as high oil
prices and weather problems, the head of the Agriculture Department said Tuesday. Acting USDA Secretary Chuck Conner said
ethanol "clearly had some impact" on food price inflation, but the fuel is getting too much of the blame "for what's happening in
grocery store aisles." Heightened ethanol production is a cornerstone of President George W. Bush's energy policy and farmers increased the amount of corn they
planted to feed the fuel frenzy. But more ethanol also helped drive up the prices of livestock feed and other corn-dependent food products. Food prices have increased
about 2.7 percent in each of the last three years. But a jump of between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent is expected this year before retreating a bit to between 3 percent and
4 percent in 2008, Conner said at a conference hosted by the Renewable Fuels Association, which represents the U.S. ethanol industry. Global weather
conditions, including droughts in Australia, as well as rising demand in China and elsewhere drove up wheat prices. And the recent
record highs for retail oil prices also add to inflation by increasing the costs of everything from packaging to transportation, Conner said.
He did not specify how much each factor contributed to rising U.S. food prices.

Rises in food prices caused by Weakening U.S. dollar and greater consumption, Ethanol production is a
marginal culprit
Tim Mitchell, March 8, 2008,

CHAMPAIGN – Area agricultural leaders say that a weakening U.S. dollar and more mouths to feed around the
world – not ethanol plants – are largely responsible for the increased prices consumers are paying for food
products. "When you find yourself paying more money for a box of corn flakes at the grocery store, only a few
pennies of that increase came from the price of corn," said former Illinois Farm Bureau President Ron Warfield
of Gibson City


” Council on Foreign Relations) Rising energy prices have direct causal implications for the food market. as the price of oil rises. The percentage of total agricultural input expenditures directed toward energy costs has risen significantly in recent years. June 30.” Spheres of Influence. the current price a commodity trades for at market). the price of grain follows it upward. where he wrote for the Harvard Lampoon and was a fellow at Harvard Magazine. Slate. processing. Assistant Editor of CFR. Newsweek. “Food vs Fuel: Diversion of Crops Could Cause More Hunger. The input costs of electricity have also at the Council on Foreign Relations. in the sense that many of the same factors pushing up energy prices—population trends. for instance. the Washington Post. “Historically the food and energy economies have been largely separate.” he says. fertilizer is an energy-intensive expense. Teslik graduated from Harvard University. this new relation. petroleum fuels get more expensive. but now with the con. Fuel is used in several aspects of the agricultural production process.ered—the link between the price of food and the price of petroleum.) 18 .[2] He has written speeches for international political figures and corporate executives. Department of Agriculture notes that the U. June 2008) As Now that food crops can be converted into fuels.[1] and was formerly a professional speechwriter. furthering the burden. “Food Prices. biofuels become more profitable. “If the food value of grain is less than its fuel value.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES.struction of so many fuel ethanol distil. Teslik's writings have been published by the Council on Foreign Relations. they are merging. energy prices are also correlated to food prices.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit AT – Food Price – Oil Alt cause RISING PETROLEUM COSTS ARE THE ROOT CAUSE OF GRAIN PRICE INCREASES TENENBAUM 08 (David J. too. biofuel pro. According to Brown.leries.6 percent in 2008. particularly when substantial transport costs are borne by local farmers—so that expense.tion with empty gas tanks. Tenenbaum is a Wisconsin-based magazine freelancer who penned four books in Arco’s Toolbox series for professional builders. Though it isn’t itself an energy product. Volume 116. A briefing from the U. TIME Europe. and the New York Times.[3] the alumni magazine. Thus.S.e.S.” RISING OIL PRICES INCREASE PRICES OF ALL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS TESLIK 08 (Lee Hudson Teslik. including fertilization. 2008. These costs are typically passed along to customers and are reflected in global spot prices (i. a new factor must be consid. following a rise of 11. therefore. (Beyond direct causation.ducers can afford to pay more for their feedstock. or market speculation—also affect food prices. and transportation.. agricultural industry’s total expenditures on fuel and oil are forecast to rise 12. the market will move the grain into the energy economy. is reflected in the final price of foodstuffs.5 percent in 2007.ship puts hungry people in direct competi.

dairy and poultry. according to an analysis by Purdue University agricultural economists released Wednesday. Whitley. Staff Writer. Charles W. but the number of factors in play today “pretty much overwhelms the system’s ability to deal with it. And because oil and agricultural commodities are priced in dollars.” Dwyer said it is incorrect to single out the current U.which directly affects the cost of food being shipped overseas. Normally. The economists predict food prices will remain high as long as oil prices are also high and the dollar is weak. and six key factors are creating a “perfect storm” of conditions that are boosting prices worldwide.htm WASHINGTON — A diverse and complex set of factors — including biofuels production. "Whatever impacts the dollar will influence food prices. Members of the group who spoke to America.usatoday. But they did breakdown the impact on corn.S biofuels policy as the driver behind why corn prices and commodity prices in general have spiked sharply higher in the last 18 months. The rest was caused by the increasing price of prices_N. http://www. and Hui Jiang. That increases the demand for corn. according to the most recent government figures available. a lot of the newspapers have unfairly scapegoated the U. biofuels policy. Department of Agriculture says the highest anticipated increases this year are in eggs. “When farmers have to pay more for their fertilizers and other inputs. He also said the full impact of higher corn and soybean prices haven't shown up in grocery prices yet. include Michael J. "There's a link today between crude oil and corn that never existed in the past.” He and his colleagues outlined six factors. "Lower oil and a strong dollar would bring pressure on commodity prices to fall. "Even if all the subsidies go away tomorrow. a group of U. high oil prices.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit AT – Food Price – Oil Alt cause The key culprit for food price fluctuation is oil prices and currency rates – not Biofuels Maureen Groppe. The Purdue researchers said the factors are too interrelated to be able to say how much of the price increase is caused by each factor. subsidies of the ethanol industry. weather-related production problems and the increased use of corn and other food commodities for bioenergy. Corey.S." Tyner said. The analysts estimated that about $1 of the $4 increase in a bushel of corn is due to the U. “Right now. “A lot of the world press is covering this issue right now. 19 . Dwyer said. The government's explanations for the increases are similar to those identified by Purdue researchers: stronger global demand.S. The biggest pull comes from increased demand for biofuels as gasoline becomes more expensive. the declining value of the dollar has made them cheaper for other nations.html Washington -. higher processing costs and higher costs for transportation -. to ship a ton of corn out of New Orleans to Asia [costs] about $130. the international system is dynamic enough to handle one or two simultaneous shocks. First. Daniel B. deputy director of that office.S.World prices for oil and food commodities are closely linked. increasing the demand." The rise in Oil prices is the direct cause of the current rise in food prices. which promotes the conversion of some corn into biofuels." said economist Wally Tyner. The cost of food has increased 7. dollar exchange rate and commodity prices is stronger and more important than many other studies imply. for driving up director and chief economist for the Foreign Agricultural Service. and it is probably the number one issue in the newspapers around the world. a weak dollar and food consumption rates — are behind the sharply rising cost of food. Unfortunately.S. which has tripled in price since 2004.S. 7/24/2008 Gannett News Service http://www. Department of Agriculture (USDA) economists said June 23. a USDA agricultural economist.844729e-02. increased exports caused by both the stronger demand and weaker dollar. fertilizers and herbicides (many of which are petroleum-based)." Tyner said.5% since last year. 27 June 2008.” Dwyer said. Dwyer.america. calling that a "revolution" in global agriculture. corn prices will still be high unless we choose to ban the use of corn for ethanol. "The link between the U. “it means these higher food prices are not all pure profit to a producer because their costs are up as well. the report's lead author.” a dramatic increase from not long ago." said Purdue economist Phil Abbott. and prices are spiking sharply higher. as well as for petroleum-based items including fertilizer and diesel that are used to grow commodities. The english/2008/June/20080626154419WCyeroC6. higher energy prices have led to higher input costs for pesticides.

ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit **Commodities** 20 .

Brazil key to Latin American growth.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Sugar DA . Winter 1999/2k. At this point. and that on soybeans very small. president of the Inter-American Dialogue. and driven by local and regional interests--are a feeble underpinning for a modern economy and society. especially in industrial countries. Hakim 99. which would dramatically reduce the production of sugar in a number of countries. Among currently used feedstocks for biofuel manufacture are sugarcane. Nevertheless. Masami Kojima and Todd Johnson October 2005 Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP) Potential for Biofuels for Transport in Developing Countries Liberalization of agricultural trade and removal of domestic subsidies and protection. 21 . Sugar ethanol is key to Brazil’s economy. This in turn would raise the cost of ethanol production until supply expansion responds to the much higher world sugar price.(Peter Hakim. Brazilian politics--fragmented. a more free and vigorous press. who need to manage an unruly congress and fickle public opinion to keep reform efforts on track.Ethanol Uniqueness and Link . The world sugar market is one of the most distorted.5 percent a year for the decade. Brazil has spent billions of dollars over decades of research to develop the technology to mass produce ethanol from the millions of cane acres that spread along the South American landscape. Complete trade liberalization. The impact on the price of maize would be smaller.cnn. or a stronger trade union movement. there is no telling whether Brazil's economy will turn up or down. a product fueling economic growth in Brazil. which accounts for nearly one third of Latin America's population and economic activity. The country's fortunes hinge on the political skills and luck of President Fernando Cardoso and his advisers. the country succeeded far beyond anyone's expectations in squeezing inflation out of its economy and quickly recuperating from its recent currency crisis. Brazil's growth throughout the 1990s has been sluggish and will average less than August 7 2007 http://money. weakly institutionalized. It is the wild card. and soybeans.htm Meet sugar cane ethanol. CNNMoney.” Academic Search Premier) Brazil. a nation that between its oil reserves and the burgeoning ethanol industry has attained energy self-sufficiency. “Foreign Policy.Removing sugar subsidies raise feedstock prices for sugar hurting sugar ethanol production. Is Latin America Doomed to Failure. is forecast to raise the world price of sugar by about 30–40 percent according to most estimates. would induce significant price increases for many agricultural Yet few Latin American countries can boast richer political debate on key national issues. True. will heavily influence the region's overall economic performance in the coming years. maize.

Any kind of political-economic-social-security deterioration in the region will profoundly affect the health of the U.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Sugar DA article. 22 . NDU Working Paper.(Boris Saavedra.Ethanol Downturn kills to the US economy.” http://www. Saavedra 03.S. economy—and the concomitant power to act in the global security arena. Confronting Terrorism in Latin America.pdf) The United States shares with its Latin American neighbors an increasingly and vitally important financial. April 2003. professor. Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies . National Defense University. and security partnership. commercial.

. Trade liberalization would increase world prices for sugar more than those for all the biofuel feedstocks currently being used commercially. Donald Mitchell of the Development Prospects Group. 2007 Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels In countries where government provides support to agriculture. liberalization would kill sugar ethanol industries. U. which would have an adverse impact on ethanol economics. maize and soybeans in the United States and sugar beets and rapeseed oil in the European Union are large recipients of government aid. with high protection and price supports to EU.S. Clemson University. The global sugar market is among the most distorted. Ward 2007. World Bank. and William A. and Mining Policy Division. World Bank. 23 . biofuel feedstocks are usually beneficiaries of the subsidies. Professor and Director. Development Economics. Among major biofuel producers.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Sugar Ethanol DA link Extension Sugar subsidies depress world prices by 40%. Center for International Trade. and Japanese producers. Masami Kojima of the Oil. Gas. These policies have been estimated to depress world sugar prices by up to 40 percent from the levels that would have prevailed under a free market (Mitchell 2004).

Brazil’s economy is strong now. 24 .php?id=1182 .as-coa. The New York Times profiles Brazil’s recent financial and social growth and highlights its successful development recipe of respect for open markets combined with targeted social programs.” http://www. the talks’ collapse brings mixed results and expectations for its Q&A. For Brazil. Brazil is experiencing its strongest economic performance in three decades and has thus far remained fairly insulated from the U.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Brazil Econ Strong now Despite failure at Doha. Now recognized as a world player. 2008 . “Dealing without Doha. Carlos Macias August 1. Global Insight's Jan Randolph counts Brazil as one of the biggest losers in Doha's failure. On the other Council of the Americas. credit crisis. In a Forbes.

25 cents to $7. There continues to be "a lot of speculators getting out of the market.65 a bushel. "And then. Midwest. On Wednesday. you've got this attitude that is pretty pervasive in the trade right now that we're going to have a "So.S. analyst for AgriViser. provide some moisture. traders and analysts said. you're sitting here looking to August going 'there is no weather problem. December corn closed down 22 and analysts said. overall. he said. it's about 20% lower than its all-time high." said Sid Love.05.5 cents to $3. however.'" The prospect of plentiful rain next week across portions of the corn belt is further pressuring the market. Dow Jones Newswires. There are "a lot of people" now projecting average yields at 152 bushels per acre or higher." said Elaine Kub. which drove prices substantially lower in late trading Thursday. president of financial information provider Hackett Financial Advisors.96 a bushel after the Midwest flooding inundated some crop fields in the Corn Belt. Liquidation”) CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade corn futures settled sharply lower on continuing fund liquidation and a "non-threatening" weather outlook. 8/1/2008. THE LATEST REPORT SHOW THAT CORN PRICES ARE DECREASING AP 08 (Aug 1.65 per bushel." said Shawn Hackett. July 31. the benchmark contract rose for a fifth day to end at $6." FUND LIQUIDATION IS DRIVING CORN PRICES LOWER DAVIS 08 (Ryan Davis." said Durchholz.S. traders September corn closed down 22 1/2 cents to $5.63 a bushel on July 23.S. 12 crop production report. analyst with Kropf and Love consulting. Department of Agriculture is currently predicting an average yield of 148.5 cents to $5. The market also continues to look beyond the above-average temperatures expected throughout the U. 2008.85. based in San Francisco." said Dale Durchholz. MarketWatch.” Moming Zhou. 1/2 cents to $5. December corn fell 22. The U. 25 .4 bushels per acre. November soybeans declined 39 cents to $13. Fund liquidation. MarketWatch reporter.21 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. "The next few weeks should be a very fertile time to solidify one's commitment [to corn] and set the stage for well above average returns. “CBOT Corn Review: Drops Sharply On Weather.875 a bushel. reasonably good corn crop. That report is seen as the first concrete indication of the effects of June flooding throughout the U. Trading in the past few sessions. the lowest since March 23. Wheat for September delivery rose 10. Recent favorable weather has helped corn's pollination this month and has put downward pressure on prices. See Food Futures.85 a bushel.94 a bushel. corn belt this weekend to an expected mid-week cooldown starting around Tuesday. “Agriculture futures trade mostly lower on CBOT”) Agriculture futures mostly traded lower Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade. Beef futures traded higher and pork futures traded mixed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange." Corn futures for December delivery soared 26% in June to as high as $7. "But I expect prices to stay near their low until we find something really bullish. "We have obviously seen some recovery in corn prices" as some investors decided "that the market was oversold. and cool things off again. has seen signs of rebound in corn prices. New yield projections will be released in a USDA Aug. and March corn closed down 22 1/2 cents to $6. December oats dropped 9. continued to pressure prices for the duration of Friday's session. 2008) "The current correction in corn is nearing one of the best buying opportunities in a very long time. "After a couple of days we're going to turn this (heat) around and see another frontal system come. But futures in July erased all the June gains and dived to $5. a grain analyst at commodities information provider DTN. Still. Some analysts cautioned that corn could stay lower for the rest of the year.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Corn Prices low now CORN PRICES ARE THE LOWEST IN MONTHS AND WILL STAY LOW FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR ZHOU 08 (“Corn's recent slump may create buying opportunity.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 22. "To say that we have seen some extreme selling behavior in commodities over the last several weeks is a gross understatement.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Corn Prices low now WEATHER FORECASTS CAUSED A SHARP DECREASE IN CORN PRICES JACOBS 08 (“Corn. 2008. thousands of acres of Midwest farmland. August 1. “ edges/story. http://www. after earlier falling to $5. INCREASING INVESTMENTS MEANS CORN PRICES HAVE STABILIZED. Associated Press) Corn and soybean prices fell sharply Friday as forecasts for rainfall in the steamy Midwest boosted expectations of good crop development and lessened supply concerns. a grain analyst at commodities information provider DTN. said in a note. "It will be difficult to rally prices in corn or beans as long as the weather remains bearish.S. or 2. September wheat futures ended higher. to settle at $5. Prices have eased in recent weeks as warm.5 cents.78 percent. of Grainanalyst. 2008.97 a bushel. Meanwhile. "We have obviously seen some recovery in corn prices" as some investors decided "that the market was oversold.” STEVENSON JACOBS. with crude oil rebounding slightly and gold. the lowest since April 1. dry conditions return to the region.aspx?guid=%7B303E75A8-14CF-40AD-804B-B150FF6221C5%7D&dist=msr_4) Corn remains nearly $2 lower than its record high hit last month." 26 . ZHOU 08 (Moming Zhou. soybeans rise as dollar edges lower” July 28." Vic Lespinasse.94 a bushel on the CBOT. Soybeans for November delivery dropped 39 cents. Showers are expected in parts of the Midwest next week.marketwatch. president of Hackett Financial Advisors. CORN PRICES HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECLINING. The crops have been recovering well after the worst flooding in 15 years ravaged the U." said Shawn raising hopes of a robust 2008 yield." said Elaine Kub. soybeans decline on Midwest rain forecast. adding 10 cents Corn and soybean prices soared to record levels after the June floods wiped out to $7. It fell nearly 6% last week and has slumped 20% this month. Corn and a few other commodities "have been the poster children for irrational selling extremes. to settle at $13." Corn ended last week's trading at $5.7 percent.85 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.65 a bushel on the CBOT. Corn Belt in June.82. Other commodities traded mixed. silver and copper prices turning lower. offering relief to dry corn and soybean crops as farmers prepare for the important fall harvest. or 3. MarketWatch Staff writer. "But I expect prices to stay near their low until we find something really bullish.

Both corn and soybeans are planted in spring and harvested in fall. the drop in ethanol prices over the past two exports and because of more concern about U. improving crop conditions. "Prices of both crops turned lower in soybeans fall on weather concerns. and November soybeans lost 39 cents. JUNE WAS AN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCE. wheat up”. Continued strong demand by China and interruptions in exports from Argentina contributed to the large June exports. to $13. Soybean prices have not declined as sharply as corn prices. 27 . ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU 08 (Illinois Farm Bureau. 2008.65 a bushel. topping "Much of the out just under $8. and lower crude oil prices. large daily price movements can be expected. the USDA estimated that 64% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition." Good says. or 2. but could settle into a more "sideways" pattern as production prospects unfold. PROJECTED THUNDERSTORMS LEAVE ROOM FOR CONTINUED GROWTH." said Elaine Kub. Corn prices are now 25% lower than their record high near $8 hit last month." Good notes. topping out just under $16. FARMS ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM THE JUNE NATURAL DISASTERS. Some analysts said that corn's recent fall has created buying opportunities for the commodity. "That weather pattern followed a generally wet.aspx?guid=%7B0A594601%2D325C%2D4A11%2DB90B%2D0598C1D5B131%7D&dist=mor enews) Corn futures for December delivery slumped 22. During the same period. or 3. MarketWatch Staff writer “Corn. Still Not Stable.S. Thunderstorms were forecast to move into the Midwest. At the close of overnight trade on July 21. he notes CORN PRICES CONTINUE TO DECLINE FROM THEIR $8 HIGHS. July 28. compared to about 45 million in June 2007. "There is no shortage of speculative market bears. cool May that resulted in late planting and slow emergence in some areas. 1.marketwatch. according to University of Illinois Marketing Specialist Darrel Good." He adds that soybean prices were also supported by a generally strong export pace. according to Accuweather. crop conditions.8%. Grain Prices Continue to Weaken. http://www. Aug.37." weeks has been more than offset by the decline in corn prices.5 cents. December 2008 corn futures settled $1. 2008.7%. USDA export estimates indicate that soybean exports during June totaled about 57 million bushels. to end at $5. December 2008 corn futures increased about $2 per bushel during the month of June. a grain analyst at commodities research firm DTN." says Good.40 are down 12% from the contract high. November 2008 soybean futures rallied more than $3. and bring with them rains that will give crop growth in the major corn-producing area a major boost. http://prairiefarmer.74 below the contract high. equal to the rating of a year ago. STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED." he notes." As of July 13. November 2008 soybean futures at $14.82 per gallon on July 3 to $2. June rally was related to weather conditions in the United States as excessive rainfall threatened acreage and yield in a wide area over the Midwest. Lower crude oil prices have resulted in lower prices for ethanol. "Soybean prices have been a little more resilient because of the uncertainty about Argentine For corn. who continue to interpret the generally favorable weather as a sign that yields could still match trend-line projections. "Corn prices have been pressured by a combination of larger-than-expected acreage estimates released by the USDA on June 30.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit CORN PRICES LOW NOW CORN PRICES CONTINUE TO DECLINE FROM THEIR JUNE HIGH.aspx?ascxid=fpStory&fpsid=35035&fpstid=2) Corn and soybean prices continue to weaken.57 per gallon on July 18. The average price of ethanol at Iowa plants declined from $2. " "While December 2008 futures are down by more than 20% from the contract high. Prairie Farmer newsletter. ZHOU 08 (Moming concerns/story.85 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

2007 Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels Rising prices of maize—and potentially of cassava. 2007 Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels The United States has a variety of government policies that support domestic producers of maize and prevent world market price signals from being transmitted to farmers (OECD 2006a). and Mining Policy Division. The main impact would be a drop in farm land prices. most of whom are net food purchasers. which is also an ethanol feedstock— would be a concern for the world’s poor. Ward 2007. World Bank. Donald Mitchell of the Development Prospects Group. Professor and Director. Ward 2007. World Bank. the number of foodinsecure people in the world would rise by more than 16 million (Runge and Senauer 2007). World Bank. Professor and Director. thereby maintaining supply levels. This relatively small impact on prices and trade is due to the fact that much of the land devoted to maize production would likely remain dedicated to maize even without government policies. World Bank. Rising corn prices rapidly increase food insecurity. even though the United States is among the lowest cost producers of maize net of subsidies. Donald Mitchell of the Development Prospects Group. These policies encourage maize farmers to produce even when world market prices are depressed and keep global maize stocks high and prices low. and William A. and William A. and Mining Policy Division. Center for International Trade. Maize is the preferred staple food of more than 1. Masami Kojima of the Oil. Center for International Trade. Masami Kojima of the Oil. Removing all import tariffs and farm support programs would result in an estimated increase in average world maize prices of 5. Clemson University.2 billion people in Latin America and Africa (Global Crop Diversity Trust 2006). A study at the University of Minnesota estimated that. Cassava provides one-third of the caloric needs in sub-Saharan Africa and is the primary staple for more than 200 million poor people. for every percentage increase in the real prices of staple foods.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Corn Price link Subsidies keep corn prices low. Development Economics. Gas.5 percent (Fabiosa and others 2003). It is also a reserve when other crops fail. 28 . Clemson University. Development Economics. Gas.7 percent and an increase in maize trade of 4.

Total loss then was estimated at 3. estimated that 560.3 billion. Iowa statewide could have a good crop. Iowa farmers planted 13. he said.4 million acres of soybeans." he said.000 acres of soybeans were lost. said Chad Hart. Nonetheless. the outlook is much better than earlier in the year. however. a grain expert told an agriculture task force Wednesday.50. On June 20. His numbers exclude fields that have been replanted. while soybeans are around $14 a bushel. On Wednesday.50 a bushel. and statewide a decent harvest is in the works. Hart noted that yield estimates are not yet available. The hits are still significant. Depending on factors such as how early it frosts or if additional disasters take place. Corn is now around $5. which probably explains the contrasts with earlier reports.7 million acres of corn and 9. down from a high this year of around $16. Hart told the Rebuild Iowa Commission's Agriculture and Environment Task Force.000 acres of corn and more than 400. using numbers from the National Agriculture Statistics Service.” By JASON CLAYWORTH. that the overall picture should not overlook the situations of some farmers who lost all or substantial portions of their crops. 29 . Hart told task force members. July 31. Northey said Wednesday. 2008. He cautioned. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey estimated that 20 percent of corn and 10 percent of soybeans had been destroyed due to flooding. an economics professor at Iowa State University who works closely with ISU Extension. but some of the hurt has been reduced by replanting. Des Moines Register) Iowa's crop losses from floods are far less than first estimated. In total. Hart. Northey said he believes Wednesday's estimates are accurate. and those expectations are the reasons corn prices have dropped by nearly $2 a bushel in recent weeks. Iowa is in line to harvest about 93 percent of the corn planted and 95 percent of soybeans. "The point is.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit AT: IOWA LOSS IOWA CROP LOSSES ARE FAR LESS THAN EXPECTED AND WON’T AFFECT PRICES MUCH CLAYWORTH 08 (“Expert: Iowa's crop loss less severe than assessed.3 million acres and $3. Some farmers may see diminished yields largely because of late planting. he said.

Lisa Shumaker) CHICAGO (Reuters) . said Gary Schnitkey. http://in.S. analysts NEW YORK.” Jul 28. up 36 percent from 2008 and up 85 percent from the five-year average $286 per acre. The cost to plant corn next spring will be $529 per acre. crop production costs to rise one-third in 2009.S.S. corn should sell for about $6 a bushel next year. U. analysts said. ethanol have been narrowly profitable for the third week running. 2008.88 a bushel on Thursday. an agricultural economist who conducts the annual survey of expenses excluding land costs. Research) reported this week that its corn costs during the second quarter rose to $5. the study projects a break-even price of $3. At $321 an acre. based on yields of 54 bushels per acre.82 a bushel for corn in central Illinois.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Corn Prices high CORN PRICES ARE DECREASING BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH BECAUSE OF ETHANOL DEMAND REUTERS 08 (“U. Aug 1 (Reuters) -Average margins for making U. But global grain demand has kept the corn price from falling too far. Soybeans would break even at $9. Based on futures markets. down about 10 cents from last week. but slipped slightly this week on stronger corn prices. Profile.S. Most ethanol in the United States is made from corn. farmers will have to spend roughly 30 percent more next spring to plant corn and soybeans due to soaring energy prices driving up the cost of fertilizer. ethanol distillers profit for third week. Aventine reported a net loss of $1.N: Quote. compared with $3.reuters. 30 .U. Ethanol maker Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc (AVR. making it difficult for all but the most efficient distillers to profit this year. consumers will likely pay higher prices for everything from bread to milk to meat. with soybeans in the $13 to $14 range. up nearly 15 cents from the previous week. according to a University of Illinois study.9 million on the quarter due to losses on investment securities. Schnitkey predicts 2009 prices significantly above break-even prices. Corn. CORN PRICES WILL INCREASE NEXT YEAR BECAUSE OF FERTILIZER COST SHUMAKER 08 (“U.38 a bushel. As a result. based on an average yield of 191 bushels an acre.99 a bushel last year. September corn futures CU8 on the Chicago Board of Trade closed at nearly $5. rising oil prices and government mandates for biofuels.S.65 a bushel. 2008. At least corn prices have fallen sharply since spiking above $7 per bushel during the worst floods in the Midwest in 15 years in June. Assuming cash-rent fees of $200 an acre. he said. soybean and wheat prices at the Chicago Board of Trade hit record highs this year amid increased global demand for food. soybean input costs are projected to rise by 34 percent from 2008 and more than 78 percent from the 2003-2007 average of $180 an acre. distillers were making about 15 cents per gallon this week for every gallon of ethanol.” Aug 2.

exclusive of transportation. of course. Canada. The exceptions. India. Like most developing nations.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Wheat Price DA Impact .” The export price for Pakistani wheat during the April-May export window was approximately $225-232 per ton. 2007.Pakistan FAILURE TO CONTAIN THIS CRISIS WILL LEAD TO PAKISTAN INSTABILITY AND THE COLLAPSE OF ITS DEMOCRACY. Pakistan is now looking at an estimated import price of $380-400 per ton. 2007 that the Pakistani government would import one million tons of wheat. The nations producing and exporting food.” Triggered by wheat export curbs by Kazakhstan and the lowest world inventory in 26 years.S. A failure in this effort can lead to significant instability and has the potential to threaten the future of democracy in Pakistan. Kazakhstan is in the belt of wheat production that stretches from Ukraine through southern Russia. of the available 10 million tons from the 2007-08 crop. particularly food. South Asia Investor Review 08. fuel. with the bulk of his or her income spent on food. South Asia Investor Review is focused on reporting. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service. “Another Wheat Crisis Looms for Pakistan." Well. The dramatic increases in commodity prices. here we are in February 2008 and the price of wheat has more than doubled yet again since Dec. " Former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz announced in Sept. wheat price hit a new record at $25 per bushel or about $900 per ton. the average person in Pakistan has very low discretionary spending. 55 per kilo for raw wheat in bulk excluding transportation. The incoming government in Pakistan will face a very difficult challenge in containing tremendous inflationary pressures on basic commodities such as food and fuel. China and the African nations. In fact. Kazakhstan is the sixth-largest exporter of wheat. metals etc.. milling and bagging. the inflation of wheat prices now exceeds all other commodities including oil.S. Argentina and the European Union. For December 2007 delivery. behind the U. is very troubling for the vast majority of populations living in the developing countries such as Pakistan. Russia. According to the U. Riaz Haq. analyzing and discussing the economy and the financial markets of countries in South Asia. and metals actually benefit from this trend of higher commodity prices. It already has exported nearly seven million tons of grain. including Pakistan. This translates into Pakistan Rs. are the nations with their own significant production of food and fuel and other natural resources. stating that this action was necessary to “maintain a reasonable buffer stock for the future. gold. It represents a 400% increase in less than a year. 2-26. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Agriculture Minister Akhmetzhan Esimov said. 31 . clothing and shelter.

leaving buyers. Foreign buying is driving this market. “Anyone who tells you they’ve seen something like this is a liar. With demand soaring abroad and droughts crimping supply. and stocks in the United States have dropped to levels unseen since 1948. Mexico. “That is something that definitely has the market excited. All of a sudden. but these buyers include South Korea.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Wheat prices high now The high price of wheat is getting higher The New York Times 08’ In Price and Supply.html) CHICAGO — For decades. The grain was usually plentiful and prices were low. wheat was a commodity no American needed to think much about. Prices for common wheat are up nearly 50 percent since August. the world’s wheat stockpiles have fallen to their lowest level in 30 years. 2008 (http://www. Prices have been gyrating in recent days as traders tried to figure out what to make of the situation.73 a bushel on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. spring wheat. Nigeria and Venezuela. except the farmers who grew it. “We haven’t hit a price that has slowed the international interest.nytimes. too. growers and longtime commodity traders shaking their heads. jumped to $16. Wheat Is the Unstable Staple By DAVID STREITFELD Published: February 13. when it exceeded $20 a bushel in today’s dollars after huge sales to the Soviet Union. and they are up even more for the most sought-after varieties. and they are developing a taste for products made from wheat. Though this week’s prices were nominal records. those assumptions have been turned upside down. prices for a sought-after variety. S.” said Joe Victor of the commodity research firm Allendale. the latest of several records. the inflation-adjusted record for wheat was set in the” said Vince Boddicker of the Farmers Trading Company in Mitchell. Taiwan. 32 .” Among the consequences are stretched wallets at home and abroad as food processors pass along higher costs. Economic growth abroad has given people the means to improve their diets. On Tuesday.

I know I hadn't until I saw this small quote in a recent article . With soybeans still high. Mr. have the retail prices for things made from wheat. American Fuels 08’ What has happened to the price of wheat? May 14.americanfuels. The average price for a pound of white bread in March was $1. And as this chart of wheat futures shows wheat topped $13 per bushel in the middle of March and is now trading at less than $8 per bushel.html) Quietly. So quiet in fact that I doubt anyone has noticed. such as bread gone down any? Well. 2008 (http://www. Reed said. it hasn't. So the months of being told that ethanol production was leading to higher wheat costs as farmers switched from growing wheat to growing corn for ethanol (which didn't happen see here) has lead to bakers being able to keep bread prices high even though wheat prices have fallen without anyone questioning it. over the last two months the price of wheat has gone down. So the big question is. As soon as I saw it I went over to the Chicago Board of Trade and started looking for 33 . but lately they have dropped below $8.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Wheat price low Wheat prices lowering now. with little or no fanfare. wheat prices soared to nearly $13 a bushel. that could be another factor pushing some farmers away from planting corn. Over the winter. according to the Department of Labor.373.350 and for April it was $1.

THE DISTURBED SUPPLY AND DEMAND IS SNOWBALLING INTO CIVIL TURMOIL IN 14 COUNTRIES.have already begun to descend off their highs. April 27. injuring at least 50 people. But that would still leave a year-over-year price hike of 45 percent. The food price shock now roiling world markets is destabilizing governments.N. and become a multidimensional problem affecting economic growth. To quell unrest. 34 . Much of the increase is being absorbed by middle men -. . The U. more than 20. Washington Post. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is struggling for political survival after a March rebuke from voters furious over food prices.” Anthony Faiola. As farmers rush to plant more wheat now that profit prospects have climbed.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Wheat  instability WHEAT PRICES ARE DESTABILIZING GOVERNMENTS AND IGNITING STREET RIOTS. suggesting that the world must cope with a new reality of more expensive food. forced to spend more and more of their income on skyrocketing food bills. from the beginning of 2005 to early 2008. The convergence of events has thrown world food supply and demand out of whack and snowballed into civil turmoil. it fears. By comparison. In Bangladesh. In Malaysia. and grain prices are sky high. according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. AND POLITICAL SECURITY AROUND THE WORLD. It is outpacing even the Soviet grain emergency of 1972-75. World Food Program has warned of an alarming surge in hunger in areas as far-flung as North Korea and West Africa. prices leapt 80 percent. igniting street riots and threatening to send a new wave of hunger rippling through the world's poorest nations. Prices for some crops -- such as wheat -." U. At least 14 countries have been racked by food-related violence. social progress and even political security around the world. Few believe prices will go back to where they were in early 2006.distributors. "This crisis could result in a cascade of others . THE WHEAT CRISIS AFFECTS ECONOMIC GROWTH. The crisis. processors. analysts predict that prices may come down as much as 30 percent in the coming months. 2008. .000 factory workers protesting food prices rampaged through the streets two weeks ago. when world food prices rose 78 percent. SOCIAL PROGRESS.N. Haitian Prime Minister Jacques-Édouard Alexis was forced to step down this month. The world’s poor suffer most. After hungry mobs and violent riots beset Port-au-Prince. will plunge more than 100 million of the world's poorest people deeper into poverty. even governments -. countries including Indonesia are digging deep to boost food subsidies. “The New Economics of Hunger: a brutal convergence of events has hit an unprepared global market.but consumers worldwide are still feeling the pinch. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said.

Manthita Sou. April 27. 35 . Living on the 50 cents a day she earns weaving textiles to support a family of three. it is a matter of survival. Washington Post. Her solution: stop eating bread. "I don't know how long we can survive like this.” Anthony Faiola. People worldwide are coping in different ways. her answer has been to cut out breakfast. Instead. But sorghum has jumped 20 percent in the past 12 months." she said. 2008. a 43-year-old widow in the Mauritanian desert village of Maghleg. In a mud hut on the Sahara's edge. “The New Economics of Hunger: a brutal convergence of events has hit an unprepared global market. a dark grain widely consumed by the world's poorest people. is confronting wheat prices that are up 67 percent on local markets in the past year. drink tea for lunch and ration a small serving of soupy sorghum meal for family dinners. she has downgraded to cheaper foods. such as sorghum. For the 1 billion living on less than a dollar a day. and grain prices are sky high. The world’s poor suffer most.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Wheat  Famine HIGH WHEAT PRICES THREATEN THE SURVIVAL OF 1 BILLION OF THE WORLD’S POOREST PEOPLE.

a shortage of supply and a weak dollar.mpl/business/steffy/5583879. Like oil.50 on the Chicago Board of Trade.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Wheat kills economy Rising wheat prices hurt the economy Steffy 08’ Houston Chronicle (http://www. the biggest such increase since 1973. Call it flaxen gold. higher prices for wheat and other edible commodities can rattle our already shaky economy.chron. Though prices retreated at week's end. Also like Wheat is acting like the new oil. the world's pre-eminent grain rose more than 25 percent last month. according to Bloomberg News. wheat prices are being driven by global demand. On Wednesday. 36 . contracts for May delivery reached a record of $13.

37 . before rebounding to about 700 million bushels by the end of the decade. Wheat plantings will rise to 65 million acres in the 2008-9 season.html) Few farmers have enough wheat on hand to take advantage of the recent increases.nytimes. Higher prices “will encourage additional acreage and production.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Wheat shortage temporary Wheat shortages are temporary and have no long term impact The New York Times 08’ In Price and Supply. the trader said. from 456 million bushels. Wheat Is the Unstable Staple By DAVID STREITFELD Published: February 13.” the report said. though it predicted the number would then fall because of competition from other crops. Stockpiles were predicted to fall this year to 312 million bushels. the Agriculture Department 2008 (http://www. from 60. Most sold last fall for prices that seemed good at the time. sees the wheat shortage as temporary. released Tuesday.4 million this year. The United States Department of Agriculture’s 10-year forecast.

com/news/CBOT-wheat-falls-rice-ends-mixed- 10328-3-1. The euro fell to $1.5250. Rice futures are Stable With a mixed ending for the month of July Commodity was up 62c at $20. with the markets keeping an eye on weak corn futures.ittefaq. which are viewed as hedges against inflation.html NEW YORK: Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures sagged on expectations for a bearish increase in US carryout and production. The dollar ticked higher against the 15-nation euro Thursday after the Commerce Department reported a jump in retail sales. and Minneapolis Grain Exchange September wheat slipped 2c to $8.75c to $8.wtop. June 12. Rice prices will fall due to a good harvest Dhaka July 22. http://www.19. July rice. 2008-07-10. with July higher but all other contracts lower on speculative selling. said economist and BRAC Executive Director Dr Mahabub Hossain. 38 . and November rice was down 18c to $18. CBOT September wheat shed 10. Kansas City Board of Trade September wheat dropped 8.69 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade. 2008. which is trading without limits because it is in delivery.htm Rice price in the international market is bound to fall in the wake of a good harvest. A rising greenback aslso makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. 2008 The New Nation : Bangladeshs Independent News Source http://nation.Rice futures fell Thursday as a stronger dollar encouraged selling from investors who bought commodities as a hedge against inflation.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Rice Prices low now Rice prices are controlled by dollar prices due to a speculator hedging strategy The Associated Press. after earlier falling as low as $18. down from $1. Rough rice futures for September delivery fell NEW YORK (AP) .75c to $8. boosted by tax rebate checks. Rice futures ended mixed on the CBOT.5452. September rice was down 16c to $17.2575 per bushel. Regardless of speculation.commodityonline.31 per hundredweight. A stronger dollar typically leads investors to sell commodities.91. However.5571 in New York late Wednesday.5 cents to $18. He told BSS that as only seven per cent of the total global output goes into the international market the high prices caused by speculation by one or two countries should be difficult to sustain particularly in the wake of a good harvest in the last season. http://www.83.

000 tonnes.5% to $780 per tonne from last week's $800 due to slowing export allowing it to export as much as 4. Rather than sell at a loss. August 01. which will lower rice retail prices Malaysian national news agency (Bernama).6 million tonnes of paddy rice from the June-July crop this year.000 tonnes of Thai rice in May.550 per tonne from RM4. The Thai government is predicting a harvest of 7. ''Foreign market activities are now also signalled it had completed its purchases for the year with a deal for 600.000. said Chookiat Ophaswongse. the wholesale prices of the various grades of rice were reduced following the fall by 25 percent in the world market price of white rice.450 per tonne compared to RM3. Malaysia bought 200." he added in the statement. Padi Beras Nasional Berhad (Bernas) managing director Bakry Hamzah in a statement today. Thai exporters or the government are likely to build up massive stockpiles of milled rice.php Rice prices are expected to fall next month as the second June-July crops from Thailand and Vietnam are har_dhvested and brought to market. http://www. the Philippines. Vietnam is also looking at higher-than-expected output this year. besides the price of other grades of rice following changes in the world market 2008.200 previously. He said the price of Thai glutinous rice (10 percent) was now at RM2.000 tonnes had been put on hold since Kuala Lumpur's stocks had doubled to 180. the level at which the government has pledged to step in and buy from farmers. and Pakistan basmathi PK-385 and D98 at RM5.000 previously.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Rice Price low now Rice prices poised to fall more due to an increase of Vietnamese rice on the world market WICHIT CHANTANUSORNSIRI & PHUSADEE Bernas announced the reduction in the price of fragrant white rice and glutinous rice by 15 percent and 12 percent respectively. He forecast that rice prices should fall further after Vietnam cut its minimum price for shipments by 2.5 million tonnes. Bangkok Post. but its Agriculture Minister said on Monday talks to buy another 300. 39 . experts say. a bit quiet. compared with only four million tonnes last year. Rice Wholesale Prices are Down.000 per tonne from RM5. With such a large flood of rice expected next month and demand drying up. Last week. http://www. "The price stability will also encourage local rice millers to produce Super Special grade local rice (5 percent) and help ensure sufficient supply of this grade of rice in the market. Thursday June 26.'' said Mr Chookiat. president of the Rice Exporters Association. warn traders. 2008. According to Bakry.php?id=350066 The price of several grades of imported rice has gone down between nine and 25 percent from Friday. the world's biggest buyer.600 per tonne from RM3.900 before.bangkokpost.000 tonnes struck with Vietnam. and Thai Hom Mali white rice AAA grade at RM3. Baht weakness could also add pressure to prices. The cut came shortly after Hanoi lifted an export ban on rice this month. in line with its shipments in 2007.400 per tonne compared to RM3. Thai Hom Mali grade A rice is now selling at RM3.500 previously. Buyers are holding their orders back as they expect prices to fall further next month due to increasing supply. traders expect prices of the staple could fall to $700 a tonne in Thailand. said the wholesale price of Thai white rice with 5 percent broken grains and Vietnamese rice (5 percent) was now fixed at RM2. which can last in silos for up to five years. Bakry said the reduced wholesale prices of rice were expected to also bring down the retail prices. Recently.

These restrictions promised to further dry up what was already an anemic international trade in rice.html?mod=relevancy. The most recent rice-price spike resulted from government actions. Interestingly.wsj. The monthly history of the gold price for the past six decades is divided into three categories.php?pub_id=9472 From the Middle Ages onwards. the fear of deficient harvests in England and France immediately produced pamphlets attacking hoarders and speculators for driving up prices. It's no surprise rice prices surged. 2008. David Ranson and I have constructed the accompanying chart that illustrates the way that the price of rice responds to changes in the price of gold. a strengthening dollar will lead to a drop in rice prices. Today is no different. Globe Asia. Steve H. India's government has taken to shuttering commodity futures exchanges to protect the public from the sky-high prices caused by speculators. If it's not the speculators." That said. http://www. who told the Petrograd Soviet that "until we apply terror to speculators – shooting on the spot – we won't get anywhere. Rice price surges are controlled only by Government actions STEVE H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. http://online. India. the public's ire about speculators has risen – just as it did in the days of old. June 10.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Rice Price low now Rice prices are controlled by Dollar exchange rates NOT Speculators. the world's largest rice importer – to bulk up their stockpiles in the face of food security concerns and you have a deadly one-two punch: restricted supply and burgeoning demand. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. the wrong culprits have been fingered. It's time to stop blaming the speculators and start pointing a finger at the weak dollar Speculators have no effect on the Rice Market. WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA. The evolution of the price of rice over the following year is then plotted. Politicians have been quick to blame private speculators and hoarders for sky-high rice prices but.. …. A host of countries – including China. Hanke. Egypt and Vietnam – imposed restrictions and bans on exports. It's clear that changes in the dollar's price have accounted for the lion's share of the changes in rice prices what nonsense. Steve H. Add to this the desire of other governments – including Malaysia and the Philippines. according to the degree of the gold price change in the initial month. then what is causing rice prices to surge? The rice price problem (and that of other commodities) is largely a dollar problem.Steve H. As Condorcet. Turgot and Smith might have said. The fall in the dollar relative to gold has forced a massive increase in the world price of rice and other commodities. HANKE and DAVID RANSON. With rice prices soaring. Never mind. No current-day politicians have matched Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. 40 .com/article/SB121304377448658293. as usual. . many commodities whose prices have surged such as tungsten and cobalt are closely held and don't trade on futures exchanges. June 2008.cato.

Tariffs. In Delhi. For our own national interest. Griswold 06 (Daniel. The U. Worldwide. escalating barriers to processed rice.S. Ending rice subsidies would actually push global prices even higher. prices. Rice Subsidies”. tariffs on rice imports average 43 percent.S. Prices of gram dal remained steady at all the reporting centers except for an increase at Delhi.7. Rice payments tend to be concentrated among a small number of large producers. atta. “Wheat and Sugar Prices Generally Stable Last Week OTHER FOOD COMMODITIES SHOW MIXED TREND” http://pib. with ramifications for U.S.S. and groundnut oil held steady for one week. and as workers. including repeal of tariffs and a rapid phaseout of subsidies.asp?relid=40808) 13:13 IST Retail prices of farm commodities monitored by the Department of Consumer Affairs at different locations have generally remained steady or shown mixed trend over the week ending July 25. tariff- rate quotas. Tariffs on imported rice drive up prices for consumers. tur and yellow peas. Price of vanaspati held steady for one month. 16th. as consumers. production and export subsidies. Prices of sugar remained steady at all the reporting centers except for an increase at Delhi and Mumbai and decrease at Bhubaneshwar and Bangalore.S. Bhubaneshwar. economy generally through a misallocation of resources. MP: CP: prices (30. Bangalore. Prices of gram dal. and historical acreage.S. perpetuate poverty and hardship for millions of rice farmers in developing countries. Prices of tur dal remained steady at all reporting centers except for an increase at Lucknow. Direct taxpayer subsidies to the rice sector have averaged $1 billion a year since 1998 and are projected to average $700 million a year through 2015. Globally.S. Prices of wheat. 2008. Daniel Griswold is the director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Trade Policy Studies. Guwahati and Chennai and decrease at Mumbai and Thiruvanthapuram. prices of rice.S. Press Information Bureau 08 ( July 30th.nic. milk and salt held steady during the last six months. Those programs make rice one of the most heavily supported commodities in the United States. the U. sugar. Rice subsidies not only provide rice farmers in the U. Prices of wheat remained steady at all reporting centers except an increase at Lucknow. and state monopoly trading enterprises are common. government supports domestic rice production through tariffs on imported rice and direct taxpayer subsidies based on production. Bhubaneshwar.4 million tonnes of pulses of which about 1. with 75% of their annual income but actually keep the currently astronomically high price down. in turn. and border protection and production subsidies account for three-quarters of income for rice farmers in wealthier countries. tur dal. undermining our broader interests and our standing in the world. Those lower prices. Congress and the president should work together to adopt a more marketoriented rice program in the upcoming 2007 farm bill. even though they’re holding at dangerously high levels. program also leaves the United States vulnerable to challenges in the World Trade Organization. PSUs have contracted to import about 1. 41 .in/release/release.S. tea. The U.S. The pulses being imported include urad.22 million tonnes has arrived and 1. and the rice program imposes a drag on the U. Americans pay for the rice program three times over—as taxpayers. moong. Nov. rice program is no exception. The U. U. potato and onion increased while the price of mustard oil decreased.2008) U. policy drives down prices for rice by 4 to 6 percent. Chennai and Thiruvananthapuram and decreased at Delhi and Mumbai. taxpayers and consumers and rice producers abroad.) Rice is the world’s most important food commodity and also the most protected and subsidized.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Rice Price DA Rice prices are currently stable. “Grain Drain: The Hidden Cost of U.10 million tonnes has been disposed till date.

“rice prices have skyrocketed to near historical levels.” he said. capitalist market is dictating intolerable conditions for masses of people on every continent. Clashes between protesters and United Nations occupation troops left at least five people dead and scores wounded and saw crowds attempt to storm the presidential palace. The cost of a kilogram of rice has risen to $1 in a country where the average income is barely 50 cents a day. Yemen.” Instead. Children will suffer from malnutrition. provoking a worldwide eruption of class struggle. Peru. you are going to kill us. holding up such a bag. Indonesia. Cambodia April 6 to protest food price hikes. however. then the consequences on the population in a large set of countries. south Asia and Latin America. Britain. More decisive. who used gunfire in an attempt to disperse the crowds. Germany. * In Egypt.” He added that wheat prices had increased by 120 percent. a 2-kilogram bag of rice. and throughout The global most of sub-Saharan Africa. * In Bangladesh. is the realization that this crisis confronting the most impoverished countries and poorest sections of the world’s population is threatening to unleash a revolution of the hungry that could topple governments across large parts of the world. Mexico. The strikers demanded a “significant and effective” cut in the price of rice and other stables. with hunger. with more likely to come. “now consumes about half of the daily income of a poor family. Scores were injured in clashes with police. felt compelled to acknowledge the emerging worldwide catastrophe. thousands marched on the home of President Laurent Gbagbo. The United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food Jean Ziegler offered among the bleakest prognoses for the continuing crisis. “We are heading for a very long period of rioting. Ziegler warned. With terrifying rapidity. warning of the threat of widespread hunger and already emerging political instability. He pointed out that. Food prices in Haiti had risen on average by 40 percent in less than a year. while ignoring the fact that hundreds of millions across the planet are being threatened with starvation. referring in only one brief reference to the risk of “high oil and commodity prices. “If food prices go on as they are today. conflicts (and) waves of uncontrollable regional instability marked by the despair of the most vulnerable populations. Thailand. the World Bank and the Group of Seven were convened in the shadow of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. * Earlier this month. Those kind of questions sometimes end into war.” said Zoellick. Even as the IMF and World Bank were meeting. While Wall Street’s turmoil and the deepening credit crunch dominated discussions.S. hunger claimed the life of a child under the age of 10 every 5 seconds. * Unions and shopkeepers staged a two-day general strike in the West African nation of Burkina Faso last week to protest high prices. will be terrible. governments fear revolution of the hungry” http://axisoflogic.. they focused on the stability of the financial markets. The “international community will also need to take urgent and concerted action in order to avoid the larger political and security implications of this growing crisis. Police broke up the protest with tear gas and batons. France. but not only Africa.” Strauss-Kahn added: “So it’s not only a humanitarian question. then the consequences on the population in a large set of countries . north of Cairo. in the Ivory Coast. the International Monetary Fund managing director. the more than doubling the cost of a loaf of bread. chanting “we are hungry” and “life is too expensive. will be terrible. “If food prices go on as they are today. It is the concern that this struggle will spin out of control that found expression in the statements of concern issued by the IMF and World Bank leaders together with finance ministers and central bank chiefs gathered in Washington.000 textile workers took to the streets to denounce soaring food prices and demand higher wages. and the government sent plainclothes police into the factories to force workers to work. Italy and Canada) made virtually no mention of the global food crisis. Hundreds were arrested.” Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Axis Of Logic 08 (4/15. the starvation of millions and the imminent slaughter of entire populations through forced starvation. Uzbekistan. is “an imminent massacre. on Saturday. What was now posed. who earn a monthly salary of just $25. He warned that governments “will see what they have done totally destroyed and their legitimacy facing the population destroyed also.” “In Bangladesh.” he told the French daily Liberation Monday. with the cost of staples such as rice doubling. leaders of the global financial institutions were forced to take note of the growing global food emergency. Food prices in Egypt have risen by 40 percent in the past year. Police armed with cattle prods broke up the protest. threatening the workers.” World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in an opening speech to the meeting of finance ministers. the government of Haiti was forced out in a no-confidence vote passed in response to several days of demonstrations and protests against rising food prices and hunger that swept all the country’s major cities. It is also a democratic question.shtml Bill Van Auken (born 1950) is a politician and activist for the Socialist Equality Party and was a presidential candidate in the U. The seven major capitalist powers in the G-7 (the US.. in part because while these agencies are instruments of the main imperialist powers. The IMF and World Bank. It is not only an economic question. resource wars. “Amid mounting food crisis. Japan. told an April 12 press conference in Washington. election of 2004) Last week’s meetings in Washington of the International Monetary Fund. some 20. including Africa. promising measures to shore up investor confidence. for two days last week. with two people shot dead by security forces. even before the present crisis. and 854 million people in the world were seriously undernourished. It would be too revealing for them to focus exclusively on the fate of major finance houses. The same essential story has been repeated in country after country.” The country has seen food prices soar by between 30 percent and 60 percent from one week to the next. rising by around 75 percent globally and more in some markets.” 42 . strikes and clashes have taken place in Bolivia. Pakistan. * Several hundred demonstrators marched on parliament in Phnom Penh. Bill Van Auken. Similar demonstrations. Ethiopia. they must posture as responsive to the needs of all countries.” “In just two months. with consequences all of their lives. Hundreds of thousands of people will be starving.” United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told international finance and trade officials at a UN meeting following the weekend talks in Washington. from Africa to the Middle East. The price of rice in the country has doubled over the past year. however.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Rice Price DA Higher rice prices would cause government collapse. protests by workers over food prices rocked the textile center of Mahalla al-Kobra. injuring over a dozen people. hundreds of millions of people all over the planet have been confronted with the inability to obtain the basic necessities of life.

S. free trade is losing its luster. putting the U. Heavily protected producers in rich and poor countries would be undercut as more-efficient farmers emerge in countries such as Brazil. 43 .S. But more than 90% of the state’s farmers grow crops such as oranges and nuts that receive almost no government aid and would benefit from market-opening measures. Rice farmers aren’t happy about being labeled big-time recipients of corporate welfare. the Colusa farmer figures he lost at least $100 an acre. he farms 485 acres of sticky clay soil. while the cost of fuel and fertilizer soared. hiring planes to fly in seed at planting time and using high-tech laser equipment to level his fields.S. Last year California rice farmers received $140 million in subsidies. California farmers received $5. Today that has dropped to 12%. imports are growing even faster.. thanks to favorable weather.” said Mike Wooten. vice president of corporate relations for Sunkist Growers Inc. Rice prices have risen this year. who is cutting back his rice acreage and shifting to high-value medicinal plants and herbs such as lavender. what’s the benefit if the price is below the cost of production?” asked the 57-year-old Struckmeyer. the U. They say it is the only way they can survive when they face such high trade barriers in other countries and high production costs. the nation’s second-largest rice-producing region.and medium-grain rice. kept rice prices 30% below those of the previous year.3 billion in subsidies from 1995 to 2004. an average of $37. Los Angeles Times. As the nation’s leading exporter of farm goods. for example. had a 20% share of the global rice market. but they don’t apologize for taking the government’s money. farm exports are rising. which requires large amounts of water.latimes. Rice. December 04 2005. according to the Environmental Working Group. Struckmeyer and other California rice growers produced a record crop of high-quality short. on track to register its first trade deficit in agriculture in nearly five decades. But those ample supplies. fertilizer and land. The double-edged sword of trade liberalization can be seen in California. much of which went to Japan. basil and rose geranium. Fifteen years ago. plus competition from Asian suppliers. who receive large tax rebates and other government subsidies. http://articles. High-cost producers would be forced to move out of lower-paying commodity crops and into niche markets. Argentina and parts of Southeast Asia. face tariffs as high as 50% in China and compete against European farmers. “Even if right now we could sell 1 million more sacks of rice. Even with tens of thousands of dollars in aid from the calrice4 Chip Struckmeyer’s rice farm is a model of 21st-century efficiency.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Rice Subsidies key to Price Lowering Rice subsides will force farmers to switch to profitable Medicinal crops. leading to a collapse of the United States rice industry. the Doha trade round could dramatically reshape global agriculture trade. Here in the rich Sacramento Valley. Last year. With the help of his son and a manager. California has a huge stake in the effort underway in the 148-member World Trade Organization to get the world’s richest countries to give up billions of dollars in farm supports in exchange for increased access to other markets. costs four times as much to produce as corn or soybeans. an organization based in Washington that has been a chief critic of farm subsidies.089 per recipient. If successful. a grower-owned marketing cooperative. “We are significantly disadvantaged at this point. but he still doesn’t think he’ll make up last year’s losses. Though U. having a ripple effect throughout the entire agricultural community Evelyn Iritani. California citrus producers.

California) For more than 50 years. 2001.000 acres in the Sacramento Valley -. as Congress approved multibillion. The Hoffarts. California farmers who produce the nation's second largest rice crop -. Dan Spangler acknowledges that the portion of his income from the government is probably the highest in history. Paul Schnitt Sep.covering 500. They were among 19 Sacramento Valley rice farming operations -. The government subsidies of $480 million to the state's rice farmers nearly matched the $485 million market "It's a bittersweet situation. brothers working side by side. Not really. we need that government payment. The Sacramento Bee (Sacramento. grows rice on 1. 25. received $1. During 1999 and 2000. "Try growing rice without being in the value of the crop for 1999 and 2000. "Farmers like to think they are independent. "The reality is. along with brothers Neil and Mark.mainly extended family partnerships -. In many rural Northern California counties.dollar bailouts the past four years for several farm commodities.600 acres near Yuba City. has a blunt response. and be profitable.250.000 and $1 million." said Arnold Hoffart. rather than sell their land to developers. growing old and yielding to sons. the Spanglers have farmed rice in Sutter County. Yet the subsidies.124. An additional 93 received subsidies between $500. it undercuts the classic notion of the independent family farmer as the mainstay of the rice economy. come with a price. operating as Triple H Ranches.64 in government subsidies over the last two years. (federal) program." 44 . But there has never been a time when their silent partners have been so vital: the taxpayers. Not only does the money make farmers dependent on government funding." Spangler said. the Spanglers and their colleagues in the California rice industry have become so dependent on federal aid that they rely on taxpayer dollars for half their income." Gary Spangler. Much of the money went to large family farming operations that took advantage of rules designed to maximize government payments.that received more than $1 million in taxpayer assistance in that two-year period.harvested $480 million in federal subsidies. who. documented in records obtained by The Bee under the Freedom of Information Act.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Rice Subsidies key to Price The Rice industry is dependent on federal government subsidies for its very existence – cutting subsidies to the rice industry would have a ripple effect throughout the agricultural community. In the five years since Congress vowed to wean farmers from government subsidies. the government cash allows farmers to sustain their way of life. a partner and cousin.

In the sprawling." Rice prices have been creeping upward since the beginning of this decade. The price of rice." she said. a cyclone in Bangladesh. But for many rice farmers in Asia.iht." said Robert Zeigler.typhoons in the Philippines. something that the Thai commerce minister recently encouraged before reversing himself. The biggest winners are the millers and packers.they produce less than their actual needs. reached $795 per ton last week. but their productivity is low. has become a focal point of the global rice market as other traditional exporting countries like Vietnam and India have halted or put restrictions on their exports in recent weeks to ensure sufficient domestic supplies. once a relatively inexpensive and neglected commodity. Thomas Fuller. not cash in their bank accounts. "Are most of the farmers benefiting from this?" said Kwanchai of the Thai Rice Foundation. Their farms are generally bigger and more modern than those in Laos and other remote parts of Asia. high-tech farms of the United States.S. Yet it is striking how many people in the rice business in Thailand are complaining as the price of rice soars. which carries a life sentence. “High rice prices no windfall for many Asian farmers” http://www. they’re suffering under high production prices and are unable to produce enough to provide stability to the rice market. But Pomchan. Most of them sell their crops immediately after the main harvest in November. His neighbors are worse off: They put down their tools when the prices of gasoline." She is 68 years old. Perhaps most important. Multimedia Graphic » View Related Articles Rich nations seek action on rising food prices World food prices soar as Asia consumes more Today in Business with Reuters U.php) TONG JAI DAI. but it was not until February that they spiked sharply. His extended family eats more or less all the rice he harvests from his small plot.and an overall reduction in the amount of land dedicated to rice farming. "Their fields are empty. they have no way of storing their own rice." said Kwanchai Gomez. Korbsook Iamsuri. the world's largest rice importer. The price of Thai B grade rice. Thailand. the government warned that anyone hoarding rice could be charged with economic sabotage. farmers. when supply is ample and prices are usually lowest. director general of the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines. But there are winners in the rice business. But it is a measure of the relatively weak position of rice farmers that even in Thailand most farmers have not yet benefited from the increase in prices. a research center.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Prices hurt Rice Producers Even as international rice producers should be rejoicing over high prices. [are] not rejoicing." "This price rise is a problem for everyone because no one was prepared. The price of Thai white rice is 122 percent higher now than it was in November. There are also strong suspicions of hoarding. said the suddenness of the upswing had caused some exporters to lose tens of thousands of dollars. can harvest as often as four times a year and thus will reap a windfall in May when their next crop is due. and there are likely to be more if the high prices hold or rise. the oil fields of Saudi Arabia and the coal mines of Australia.5 "The assumption is that all farmers are billion second-quarter loss Police report says Société Générale was unaware of rogue trades better off when prices go up. flooding in Indonesia and Vietnam .com/articles/2008/04/06/business/rice. always politically sensitive in Asia. a widely traded variety. a rice exporting company that controls about 5 percent of the Thai export market. an increase of 147 percent from a year earlier. Laos: It should be happy times in the radiant green rice paddies that Pomchan Luanguanna has spent more than three decades tilling: The price of his crop is soaring faster and higher than anyone can remember. "Certainly not in my lifetime. jobless rate hits 4-year high GM posts $15. Experts say rice prices are rising because of a mix of irrational panic. drillers and miners are rubbing their hands in anticipation of a continued windfall from the boom in commodity prices. Commercial farmers who have access to irrigation. has spread anxiety among consumers who are emptying shelves of the least expensive varieties. like many small farmers across Asia. the executive director of the Thai Rice Foundation. Armed soldiers supervised the distribution of subsidized rice last week. weather problems . International Herald Tribune 08 (April 7. the head of Kamolkij." Pomchan said. fertilizer and pesticides soared. "The problem is that a large proportion of rice producers in the world are actually net rice buyers . "Nobody has ever seen such a jump in the price of rice. because they are able to hold onto their rice and sell at higher prices. the commodity they produce ends up as food in their stomachs. to gold sprouting from the black soil. and that's a long time. 45 . "I would say no. In the Philippines. and local newspapers are comparing rice. which in Thailand be 25 percent of the total number. which is by far the world's largest rice exporter.

Cali key to US Economy Matthew Benjamin 10/12/03. including field preparation. US News http://www. infrastructure and rice land prices in industry. But Buffett meant more than a morbid fascination with car chases and Hollywood glitterati. September 2003. The UC estimated the typical full costs are $944 per acre. This is the income that supported the production costs. California's economy accounts for an eighth of the U.000 rural community jobs in the Sacramento Valley with the California rice industry. "You can't have trouble out there without it affecting the rest of the country. Rice is the number one agricultural commodity measured by market value of production in Butte. Colusa. Hired and family farm labor is another major cost item. Sumner and Henrich Brunke. state and national economies (see the Measure of California Agriculture. This employment is crucial in these communities. This is also the revenue that forms the basis for the industry's contributions to the rural economies of Northern California.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Rice key to Cali Economy California’s economy relies on the Rice industry for export and tax revenue as well as employment . So when the Golden State sneezes.S. Employment multipliers show that each million dollars of rice revenue generates approximately 10 jobs in the local county. the national economy can easily catch a cold. Glenn. Buyers in Northeast Asia and the Mediterranean region rely on California rice and these markets are growing with more open trade rules. seeding. agriculture. fertilizing. including Rice production does not simply add rice revenue to the approaching 2. Its technology. The impacts are larger than 1. The effect is largest. That revenue is government Total revenue of the California rice industry was almost $500 million per year in both 2001 and 2002 (see table 1). The top six rice-producing counties are Colusa. drying. Glenn. Together these six counties produce about 94 percent of the California total. Total revenue was thus somewhat less than $10 per hundredweight. Land was the largest single cost item and indicates the capitalized value of net future returns that growers anticipate from producing rice. Additional revenue for other businesses and additional employment in rural communities follows from economic activity initiated in the rice industry. which have a relatively small economic base and higher than average unemployment rates.6 in Butte. Sutter.calrice. and Yuba counties. Butte. Rice is particularly important in six counties of the Sacramento Valley." As usual. irrigation and pest control are about $380 per acre. including straw management add another $219 per acre. Costs associated with owned or rented crop land add $225 per acre. ranking between Britain and France. storage. According to the cost of production data compiled by University of California Cooperative Extension the typical cultural costs for rice.60 dollars are added in county economic activity for each dollar of rice revenue in the counties of the Sacramento Valley. economy and is larger than the economies of all but four nations. It is also an important crop in Yolo County and is the number 2 slightly behind processing tomatoes in total revenue. The cost side of the net revenue equation indicates how total industry revenue was distributed. 46 . The largest impact is in Butte County with about 13 jobs per million dollars of rice total revenue. and entertainment industries lead the nation. post harvest costs and interest. The local "multiplier" impacts indicate that about $1. University of California Agricultural Issues Center). www.usnews.a decline in rice revenue would Devestate Californias economy Daniel A. Rice is a major export commodity for California and California is a major rice exporter.0 in Sacramento County. this economic activity and the added land values contribute to tax revenue that is used for rural schooling and other local and state services. Yuba and Yolo. multiplied as the economic activity of rice growers and others spreads through the local. California is the number-two rice state in the United States and the sole producer of high quality medium grain japonica rice favored by many consumers. California rice also plays a major role in the national and global rice economy. Sutter. billionaire financier Warren Buffett said in August when asked why he agreed to advise then gubernatorial hopeful Arnold Schwarzenegger. the Oracle of Omaha was dead on. In addition. Overall we can associate about 5. Sutter and Yolo counties where there is more non-farm business that relies on rice. ….htm Everybody is interested in California. Harvest.

" Oliver wrote. therefore. and help build up an information base. Some people argue that there are no ’good’ subsidies. not an end initself.4 million go toward fishermen's subsidies. Oliver recommended that just half of the $13. they're down to 24 days a year at sea. and other groundfish. not on the dictates of NOAA bureaucrats. these occur despite lower subsidies. "Our fishing families are hurting. Kerry and Kennedy reiterated that the funds should go to help the ailing fishermen. such as buyouts. The regulation.” Boston Globe. "Capacity reduction. needless to add. cut days at sea for Massachusetts fishermen who catch haddock. contribute to protecting fish habitats. lead to effective monitoring. control and surveillance systems. A decade ago. are one among several means to an end. removing them would be devastating Steven Rosenberg. Oliver also recommended that 40 to 60 percent of the funds be used to buy back some of the 700 federal groundfish permits held by Massachusetts fishermen. flounder.Rather. March 16. “Senators Criticize Fishing oversight. and this federal funding is intended to do just that. fishermen could fish almost 100 days out of the year. "These funds should be distributed based on the needs of our fishermen. acting assistant administrator for fisheries for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. introduce equitable property rights (which sufficiently recognize the characteristics of artisanal. "There's no question that our fishing industry needs immediate relief. they are mainly related to open-access regimes and an indiscriminate response to market signals. is at the core of transitioning to a more stable fishing environment. encourage participatory management regimes. and the last thing they need is a bureaucratic mess of federal dictates and interagency squabbles. The fishermen of Massachusetts need help and they need it now. I look forward to working with the fishing industry and our state officials to ensure that the funds are used to help those who were hurt by Framework 42. which took effect in November 2006. small-scale fisheries)." Kerry said. In e-mails to the Globe. the organization that oversees fishing regulations. director of the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries. d/l: LexisNexis) At issue is a Feb. 8 letter written by John Oliver. 47 . 2008 ([Rosenberg is a staff member of the Boston Globe]. There are ’good’subsidies and ’bad’ subsidies." Added Kennedy. We disagree. In his letter to Paul Diodati. Good subsidies also help to maintain a healthy environment. the overcapacity and overfishing in the fisheries of several developing countries cannot be attributed to subsidies.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Fish Price DA The only thing keeping Fishermen from going under are subsides granted by the government. Good subsidies are those that can bring about better control over the input of fishing effort and the output of fish. If equity and sustainability could become the ’public objective’. but under Framework 42." Framework 42 is the latest in a series of federal government regulations designed to build up depleted fishing stocks. relocate fishers from overcrowded inshore waters to labour-scarce fisheries or non- fishing activities.Subsidies. removing them would damage the ecsystem International collective in support of fishworks in 2005 Clearly.

However. cotton farmers in developing nations find it difficult to sell their cotton for a profit. therefore increasing world supply and depressing prices. America’s subsidised products undermine the economies of these countries by lowering the worldwide price. Economic viewpoints. 48 .ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Cotton Price DA Link Domestic subsidies lower the worldwide price of cotton by raising the supply. Helling. American subsidies stimulate US production of cotton. such as Burkina Faso. Madeline. Beaulier. Hall. could contribute to their economic development. High cotton: Why the USA should not Provide subsidies to cotton farmers. Local revenues that could be generated by the domestic cotton industry within African states. As a result. 2008.

Chad and Mali. Cotton subsidies. whose economies rely heavily on cotton production. “There’s real money here for the individual African. due to government subsidies. Small farmers in Burkina Faso complain that ‘they must compete against highly- mechanized.” says Daniel Sumner. 85% of the population farms cotton. In Uganda. cotton growers are expanding production. foreign investors are opening gins and assisting growers. consider the following from the presidents of Mali and Burkina Faso: 49 . . 2008. Helling. Economist’s View. in Burkina Faso. well-subsidized US rivals’ and argue that ‘American subsidies serve to depress prices on world markets’ (BBC News. and are flooding the international market with their cotton as a result. Subsidies to American cotton farmers are interfering with normal market processes. perhaps as much as 15%. High cotton: Why the USA should not Provide subsidies to cotton farmers.html Take away subsidies and cotton prices will rise. In some parts of Africa. an economist and cotton expert at the University of California. In Zambia. but local farmers cannot compete with the American cotton in the marketplace (Olvera and Magill. where civil wars in the 1970’s and 1980’s devastated farming. The cost of cotton production in Burkina Faso is one- third the cost of production in the USA. cotton growers are making a major comeback.typepad. American farmers are receiving artificially high prices for their cotton. Burkina Faso.. Economic viewpoints. Hall. For example. This glut has driven the price of cotton down and has thus had a detrimental impact on countries such as Benin.. Africans are trying to make the best out of a bad situation. Plan causes for domestic cotton prices to skyrocket because subsidies allow farmers to receive artificially low prices. Beaulier.. Madeline. 2006. 2007). cotton output is soaring. To get some perspective on the effect of US cotton subsidies on Burkina Faso’s economy. In both http://economistsview. 2007).ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Plan Increases cotton prices Eliminating subsidies raises cotton prices by as much as fifteen percent.

profit margins will be “thin” to say the least. On May 1. http://www.00. 50 . July 2008 Cotton Marketing News. Today’s price at 73 cents translates into 70 cents or less cash price for most producers. and corn was $5. Since April 1 and May 1. Cotton Prices Again Down Amid Rising Pessimism. I’m sure this is not exactly what the producer had in mind back in March. Indian domestic prices started declining after New Delhi eliminated tariffs and taxes on cotton imports. Cotton prices decreasing in 2008 Don Shurley. Today. Volume 6.27. Cotton has trended downward and lost ground relative to other Cotton prices continued last week declining amid new signs of falling global production and consumption in the next season.98/bu (Sep08 futures). if prices remain at this level into harvest and considering the sharp increase in production costs this year.47/bu (Nov08 futures). cotton was 77 ½ cents. soybeans $11. So. cotton was 81 cents/lb (Dec08 futures).ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Cotton Price low now Cotton prices continuing to decline even though production is falling. Emerging Textiles July 2008. A rebound in other commodity markets was ignored on the U.S. closing futures prices were roughly— cotton 73 cents. and corn $6. and corn $6. however.50. corn and soybean prices have held up with soybeans increasing. and May when the decision was made to plant the crop. Emerging Textiles Trade Information.93. Number 29 On April 1. April. soybeans $14. soybeans were $11. cotton market while such a weakness did not trigger a recovery in physical demand.

Cotton prices rising higher and higher.9 million tons (+3%).yarnsandfibers. However. cotton harvested area in the USA is projected to decline by a further 15% in 2008/09 as a result of surging prices for soybeans. The price committee fully deliberated the price issue and later decided to reduce the prices by Rs 25 per maund. Increases in prices of competing crops." says ICAC. says the group. therefore.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Cotton Prices high now World Cotton Price is Projected Higher in 2008/09 Secretariat. http://www. This projected price increase is due mainly to an expected decline in the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland). wheat and other oilseeds. The sources said that the trading may pick-up further as the demand had been rising while the fears about short crop have accelerated the process of procurement.php3?id=15490&p_type=Cotton The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 79 cents per pound in 2008/09. 31.000 lint bales were traded at higher prices on Wednesday. while cotton mill use is projected to grow at a lower rate of +1% compared with 2% in 2007/08 and 7% in 2006/07. the prices fixed at Rs 3. The fundamentals of cotton supply and use alone would suggest a season-average Cotlook A Index of less than 70 cents per pound in 2007/08.010 to 4150 per maund. "World cotton production is projected to decline slightly in 2008/09 to 26. However. Global Industry News 2008.yarnsandfibers.html Brisk trading continued in cotton market as over 5.100 bales were from Sindh. ICAC sees cotton prices rising in 2008/2009. INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE. While ginners and growers were concerned about the prices and said that they should get adequate compensation for it. Floor brokers said that the trading improved after the fears of short crop.0 million tons. exchanged at the rate of Rs 4. Spinners and millers were looking to grab all the unsold stock. West Africa and Australia. As a result of the gap between world production and consumption. Brazil. They were happy after the increase in prices. http://www. due to slower world economic growth and an increase in cotton prices relative to polyester.180 per 40 kg The supply of fresh phutti was slow which affected the deals. 6 cents higher than the expected 2007/08 average.8 million hectares. Declines in production are forecast in the United States.900 per maund. April 08 World cotton area is projected to remain relatively stable in 2008/09 at 33. and -13% from 2006/07). YNFX (/Yarns and Fibers Exchange) Cotton Price while the official spot rates were at Rs 4. world cotton ending stocks are projected to decline for the second season during 2008/09 to 11 million tons (-5% from 2007/08. About 1. 51 . On Friday. Australia and Brazil.250 per maund. while stable area is projected for Pakistan. These reductions could offset increases projected in Asia. the increasing role of speculative activity and commodity investment funds may be affecting cotton prices in ways that are not reflected in fundamental measures of cotton supply and use. World cotton production in 2008/09 is projected at 26. The prices were showing upward trend from the last few days. the African Franc Zone. Turkey and Uzbekistan. over-8000 lint bales changed hands. World cotton production is expected to decline due to competition from other crops. India. and Turkey due to competition from grains and soybeans. based on trends in prices during the first eight months of 2007/08. The KCA sources said that there had been brisk trading on Friday trading period. Reduced cotton plantings in the USA could be offset by increases in China (Mainland). July 2008. While the remaining were from Punjab and changed hands in the price-range of Rs 4. it is obvious that prices will be higher.150 to 4. Yarns and Fibers Exchange.

Cotton fiber prices increased substantially across markets.html Acrylic staple fiber. Acrylonitrile prices North China inched up further by US$5 a ton to US$2. 2008. and standard Shankar 6 prices increased 4 cents to US$1. VSF price in India declined by a cent in the week 1. Cotton price surges to record high.5D in Pakistan was at US$3.05 while 1.0D dull was US$2.93 a kg. Free Press Release Distribution.5D/38mm in China inched up by a cent to US$2. Cotlook A index rising by five cents. Cotton prices hikes substantially.2D dull was at US$3.95 a kg.45 a kg In India. prices declined by a cent across specs.77 a kg. 75D bright and dull in China local market was at US$7.25 a kg.5D/38 mm in China was at US$3. 3D Mitsubishi Rayon contract price was unchanged at US$2.53 a kg while in Taiwan was at US$2. 10D bright in India got quoted at US$5. 1. Indian cotton prices were also bullish.51 a kg. June 24.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Cotton Price High now Cotton prices rising significantly. VFY prices in China inched up to a couple of cents for respective specs. 2008. Cotton prices at record high. China cotton index inched up by a cent. Cotlook A index increased 5 cents in the week.nation.Increased price of 'phutti' as well as demand of cotton by textile mills had led to the rise in cotton price.05 a kg. 1. the spec fell by a cent to US$2.5D-2.prlog.01 whereas 1.4 price-surges-to-record-high The price of high quality cotton has climbed by Rs100 to a record level of Rs4200 per maund across the country. 2008. The Nation Daily Newspaper. PRlog press. In India. Their delivery will be made on July 1. http://www.070 a ton while else where it remained constant. whereas Nymex cotton futures jumped 11 cents.Senior cotton trader Nasim Usman told newsmen on Tuesday the deal of 200 bales of cotton from Pak Pattan's fresh crop was finalized at Rs4200 per maund. **Generic Food Price Impacts** 52 .com.

ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit 53 .

is fighting any change to the system. Providing cash to buy food locally would help stimulate farming in the countries that need it most. focus on maximum extraction from the land -. President Bush is right to press Congress for more food assistance.” New York Times. we will need more muscle power devoted to food production. And we're suddenly paying more -. is essentially a solitary craft. Escalating Food Prices threaten millionswith hunger NY Times. sell more. for all its down-home community the United States and Europe -. 2008 (“Food Emergency. 54 . which supports food aid as long as it gets the profit. As escalating food prices threaten an additional 100 million people with that's clean. d/l: LexisNexis) Similar networks could also operate in the countries that are now experiencing food shortages. the American farm lobby. including Haiti. the United States has flooded the world with food exports. May 6. d/l: LexisNexis) COOKING. But regional systems will work only if there is enough small-scale farming going on to make them viable.have driven corn prices up by 25 percent over the last year. Beyond the emergency aid. providing financial and technical assistance to small farmers across the world. Local farming efforts focused on conserving natural resources and biodiversity are essential to improving food security in developing countries. Land-grant universities and agricultural schools.” New York Times. displacing small farmers and disrupting domestic markets. growing world demand and government-subsidized ethanol production -. There have already been food riots in several countries. like farming. a new concept of humanitarian aid is required. Around the world. 2008 (“Change We Can Stomach. 2008 (“Change We Can Stomach. He is also right to insist that some of that aid be given in cash to purchase food from local farmers.take more. as a report just published by the International Assessment of Agriculture Science and Technology for Development has stock our pantries. The situation has become increasingly desperate as rising energy prices. with fears of more to about as easy as securing a housing loan. We must build on these tenets. we also need to rethink how we educate the people who will grow our food. Egypt and Somalia. But lately it's feeling more like a lonely burden. (The need is especially urgent when you consider that the average age of today's American farmer is over 55.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Famine High Food prices have lead to world-wide shortages and hunger NY Times. from Cairo to Port-au-Prince. Unfortunately. and more people on the farm.) In order to move gracefully into a post-industrial agriculture economy. It's enough to make you want to toss in the toque. May 11. May 11. d/l: LexisNexis) As soaring food prices threaten to unleash widespread hunger across Africa and other poor countries. green and humane -.” New York Times. dependent on financing from agribusiness. increases in food prices have governments facing riots born of shortages and hunger. wealthy donors also need to do a lot more to help Africa and other developing countries increase food production. For years. waste more. That will require assistance to develop agricultural markets and aid and credit for new technologies and seeds to boost yields. Finding guilt-free food for our menus -.75 percent more in the last six years -. High Food Prices and resistance from the US Farm lobby are driving millions to suffer from hunger globally NY Times. With a less energy-intensive food system in place. The prices of wheat and soybeans have doubled.

poor families already struggle. who are suffering from malnutrition NY Times. this cannot be seen as a luxury. to provide their children with such varied diets. children between 6 and 24 months old need energy furnished by grains and fats. but if the world truly seeks to contain this growing crisis. To maintain health and growth. But increasing the quantity of food aid is not enough. As you point out. Enhancing existing food aid with these supplements may increase the global cost of food aid. it is critical to strengthen the World Food Program's ability to carry out general food distributions and other interventions as the global food crisis spreads.” New York Times. In ''malnutrition hot spots'' like the Sahel. where most of the world's five million malnutrition-related deaths occur each year. Stemming and reversing the high rate of malnutrition-related deaths in the young should be a top priority. d/l: LexisNexis) What should also be highlighted is the devastating effect that rising world food prices will have on the most vulnerable infants and young children. East Africa and South Asia. and often fail. as well as specific essential nutrients included in animal-source proteins like milk. Beyond the age of exclusive breast-feeding. ''Ready to use'' nutrient-rich and dense foods and other nutritional supplements geared to the specific needs of young children can have a significant effect.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Famine Rising Food prices are hurting the world’s children. 2008 (“To prevent malnutrition For Children’s Sake. the quality of the food children receive is as important as the quantity. April 14. 55 .

alerted the more than 500 delegates that while 854 million people went without food in the world last year. burning grain as fuel. Complacency in the face of famine is murder. Ongoing violence there has made it difficult for relief organizations to provide food for the people. enough food was produced to feed 12 billion people. learning disabilities.2 million tons of grain. Even though enough food exists to feed the world's population. The resulting famine has been declared a national disaster. and stunted growth. about 500. Fuel and transportation problems also make the distribution of available gram more difficult. I am suffering from under-consumption. The prospect of food attracts the children to school. people of every age struggle to fill their most basic needs every day. organizing director of the National Student Campaign Against Hunger and Homelessness. according to the U.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Famine Famine threatens to kill millions in Africa in the next year alone. But for many of those students.000 people diefrom hunger-related causes every day. The three-day meeting is being hosted by the Conference of Non-governmental Organisations in Consultative Relationship with the United Nations (CONGO) and the United Nations Millennium Campaign. much land is unsuitable for agriculture. "There is actually a food crisis that is looming" in developing countries. During the late 1990s. The Hunger Project. But experts say the drought is not the main cause of the food crisis. director of youth marketing for the relief group World Vision International. according to the BBC. there is more than enough food to feed every hungry person. money isn't being spent on developing land for farming." says Jennifer Hecker. * Zimbabwe has a shortage of 1. Many others just can't get to the food. the ground is covered with the rotting bodies of animals thathave died from lack of food and water. in the city of Nairobi. where flooding has wiped out local crops and caused afood crisis. hunger levels are increasing because nations aren't investing enough in farming. a Weekly Reader publication October 1. the number had reached 852 million. Meanwhile. One New Zealand food manufacturer is reported to have offered canned dog food for the people. Because people's household stocks have run low. world hunger rates have risen.) After the number of hungry people fell from 959 million in1970 to 791 million in 1997. According to the United Nations. Conflict and economic problems were the main causesof more than 35 percent of food emergencies between 1992 and 2003. U. the body is unable to fight illnesses such as malaria. So why did 854 million go without?” http://www. Hunger exists because of the distribution of that food. honorary president of the World Federation of United Nations Associations: "We are wasting food in the North. and minerals. Wars and other conflicts can also make growing or getting food difficult. resulting in food insecurity uncertain access to safe and adequate food. * Land mines in Angola keep farmers from returning to their land for harvesting. and costs have sky-rocketed.000 people lived in refugee camps in the region of West Darfur. says Debbie Diederich. For example. Jean Ziegler. hunger rose at a rate of almost 4 million people per year. (Hunger in this context means long-term lackof food. that is the only food they eat each day. At press time. June 30 2007 “Africa: Food for 12 billion. By 2002. measles. The United Nations notes that if hunger statistics remain interactive. special rapporteur on the right to" said Mary Wahu Kaara from the Kenya Debt Relief Network with reference to the North and the South.N. Africa News. the human population is growing. Severe hunger and malnutrition (lack of adequate nutrients) can result in permanent brain damage." Their contributions were part of a heated debate over the past two days about the eradication of hunger. and growing grain to feed pigs to slaughter for ham. proteins. the government has been accused of spending millions of dollars on luxury vehicles. Her words were echoed by Hilkka Pietila. estimates that 24. Without enough calories. War and conflict can displace people to remote areas with little water and land that is unsuitable for farming. 2007 SS "As you are suffering from over-consumption. We need to strike a balance." Ziegler said. and diarrhea. * In Burkina Faso. In regions such as Mandera. the porridge gives them the energy they need to learn. One in three children has been declared malnourished. The Kenyan government turned down the donation. Going without food is dangerous. The United Nations notes that in recent years.php?PageID=5038 accessed July 2. 2006 Worldwide. Current Health 2006 Running on empty: the global fight against hunger is as fierce as ever. 56 . an organization that works to end world hunger.N. YOUR WORLD. it quickly rose again. Hunger and malnutrition rates are increasing causing a public health emergency. Here are just some of the current hunger situations in Africa alone. every schoolchild eats a bowl of porridge each day at school. Food and Agriculture Organization. * In Sudan. this at the Civil Society Development Forum. many families go without food because it's too costly. decade is hitting Kenya hard. vitamins. and in many areas. the demand for grain on the market has * The worst drought in a risen. "This is why a child that dies from famine is murder. 20 percent of families have had to abandon farming because of deaths from AIDS. * In Malawi. It ends Saturday.5 million people in need of immediate aid. We are eating too much. government conflict with rebels has uprooted whole communities. more than 5 million children worldwide will die each year from complications of starvation. the country is appealing todonors for $225 million to help an estimated 3. The impact on children is particularly harsh. Because of government instability. "Hunger exists not because there's a lack of food or a lack of resources. Some advocates believe that governments around the globe don't spend enough on feeding the hungry or farming.

India and other parts of Asia. I recall all too vividly the first time I held a dying child in Africa. but according to the World Health Organization. Canada. But despite all this we are seeing the creation of a permanent underclass of extremely poor people who are severely malnourished. the statistics become far too real. They have troubled me now for the five years I have spent as head of the World Food Program. they are hard to get your mind around and. On average WFP feeds more than 90 million malnourished people.S. not on the low-grade hunger that is ruining the lives of 400 million children. Millions still starve in a world of plenty. How could we -. all of us seem to pay far more attention to the former than the latter. It was already too late. I couldn't. So why aren't we getting the traction we need to do something about it? In part. Ottawa Citizen] What if your child were starving? One child dies every five seconds of hunger and related diseases. First. to see some of these young children. too. It's difficult to imagine all that loss of innocent life. and the local doctor from Medecins sans Frontieres said the child had at best a few weeks to live. 57 . The issue is not so much a lack of generosity by donors as perhaps mistaken priorities. and natural disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami. I am a proud Republican. MORRIS APRIL 13TH [James. It is not clear to me that the donor or academic communities have fully grasped the incredible impact of good nutrition in global development. How is this still happening in 2007? We are so rich in the United States. Frankly. the world's biggest killer remains what it was when we slept in caves. hunger and malnutrition are still the biggest threat to health worldwide and they claim more lives than AIDS. And they haunt you. I certainly saw a plea in the face of his mother.from all donors -. So not only are we not doing enough. Europe and Japan that we watch sports and soap operas on expensive little cellphones and the value of the food we throw away far exceeds what it would cost to feed all the world's orphans and refugees.let this happen? The child's face was blank. and then quickly after. The AIDS pandemic and the Indian Ocean tsunami elicited an unprecedented outpouring of private aid and foundations such as Gates. as I have. to hold them in your arms and look into the eyes of their pleading mothers. I have often thought a hungry child in the middle of a war or a huge natural disaster was somehow better off than one living in a developing country at peace and quietly struggling to better itself. perhaps in a television appeal or a news article. WFP delivers food aid to poor families that saves millions of children's lives -. an ardent capitalist and probably a touch more traditional than most. but it is not yet enough to have a real impact on the cold statistics of child mortality. We North Americans worry sometimes obsessively about the health impact of eating too much. largely due to economic growth in China. While there are 852 million people who are chronically hungry worldwide. and who would want to? But if you had the opportunity. a bit paralysing. malaria and tuberculosis combined. there was an incredible sorrow.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Famine Millions are dying right now due to hunger. It is pretty amazing that with all our technology. but it is a different hunger and largely the product of local failures in quite well-funded social welfare systems. And because I am all those things. I suspect that on some level many people in the West do not really believe hunger is as lethal as we know it is.and the lives of those left hungry by war in Darfur. frustrated and ashamed that we tolerate hunger and malnutrition on the scale it still exists today. but somehow I still saw a plea in it. I am really puzzled. hunger exists in North America. Official Development Assistance has broken through to an all-time high of more than $100 billion and globally poverty dropped by an extraordinary 20 per cent in the 1990s. worse yet. who I know thought that somehow I could miraculously help. We so clearly have the capacity to end it. barely one-10th of the size of domestic nutrition efforts in the U. could I -. AIDS in southern Africa. global food aid -. And most global aid is concentrated on emergencies such as Afghanistan and Darfur. World Food Program. You have no doubt run across these sad statistics before. Ford and Lilly are having a greater impact than ever before. we are concentrating our resources predominantly on emergencies that make the evening news. Do I sound like I am pushing some global welfare scheme? I am not. and the numbers of starving are growing. Yes. a deep shame.

Alan Gewirth. as far as the application of my argument to the Bengal emergency is concerned. our lives. to do it. 38. or that he does not harm them but only fails to help them. I ought to wade in and pull the child out. Chicago. our society.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Famine – Deontology There is no moral difference between allowing a child to starve and killing that child. 58 . Philosophy and Public Affairs. I hope. it was King’s opponents who were responsible because their intervention operated as the sufficient conditions of the riots and injuries. it does not affect his moral duty not to torture his mother to death. A vote negative is a death knell for millions SINGER 1972 [Peter. King might also have replied that the Republic would not be worth saving if the price that had to be paid was the violation of the civil rights of black Americans. to be made explicit. By the principle of the intervening action. philosophy professor. For the principle takes. This will mean getting my clothes muddy. p. I think most people will agree about this. and to promote what is good. It is difficult. and perhaps from some of them it would not follow that death by starvation is in itself bad. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University. Those who disagree need read no further. An application of this principle would be as follows: if I am walking past a shallow pond and see a child drowning in it. he was morally responsible for the disorders. so that her correlative right remains absolute. ten thousand miles away. but this is insignificant. I could even. try to argue for the moral position that I take. without thereby sacrificing anything of comparable moral importance. So far as it concerns us here. the reply would be that these rights cannot justifiably be secured at the price of the rights of blacks. accept my conclusion. and laureate professor at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics. shelter. there is nothing unique about this situation except its magnitude. The Bengal emergency is just the latest and most acute of a series of major emergencies in various parts of the world. An example of this principle may help to show its connection with the absolutist thesis. Affluence.needs to be altered. The important point is not that he lets these persons die rather than kills them. so that anyone who accepts certain assumptions. although one may reach the same view by different routes. By "without sacrificing anything of comparable moral importance" I mean without causing anything else comparably bad to happen. and deaths that ensued and that were shaking the American Republic to its foundations. What are the moral implications of a situation like this? In what follows. Since the moral responsibility is not the son’s. qualify the point so as to make it: if it is in our power to prevent something very bad from happening. Our actions to stave off famine should be evaluated for their inherent moral value. comparably important. or that he intends their deaths obliquely but not directly. perhaps impossible. I shall not argue for this view. The principle of intervening actions enhances our argument. and because the size of the problem has ensured that it has been given adequate publicity. firstly. The point is rather that it is only through the intervening lethal actions of the terrorists that his refusal eventuates in many deaths. pp. In arguing for this conclusion I will not. 229-243 [revised edition]] These are the essential facts about the present situation in Bengal. indeed. and medical care are bad. There are also many parts of the world in which people die from malnutrition and lack of food independent of any special emergency. and it requires this of us only when we can do it without sacrificing anything that is. 1994. vol. and with it. no. Famine. without thereby sacrificing anything morally significant. even in its qualified form. It follows from the principle of the intervening action that it is not the son but rather the terrorists who are morally as well as causally responsible for the many deaths that do or may ensue on his refusal to torture his mother to death. Ira W. the whole way we look at moral issues . 1. and so for brevity I will henceforth take this assumption as accepted. University of Melbourne.our moral conceptual scheme . we are not responsible for the trivial probabilistic effects of their disads. and Morality. riots. the way of life that has come to be taken for granted in our society. I shall argue that the way people in relatively affluent countries react to a situation like that in Bengal cannot be justified. to refute such positions. The uncontroversial appearance of the principle just stated is deceptive. or failing to promote some moral good. If it were acted upon. the principle makes no distinction between cases in which I am the only person who could possibly do anything and cases in which I am just one among millions in the same position. however. I shall. we ought. from the moral point of view. Secondly. while the death of the child would presumably be a very bad thing. will. I take Bengal as my example only because it is the present concern. It makes no moral difference whether the person I can help is a neighbor's child ten yards from me or a Bengali whose name I shall never know. 1 (Spring 1972). or doing something that is wrong in itself. As for the rights of other Americans to peace and order. however. People can hold all sorts of eccentric positions. morally. It requires us only to prevent what is bad. was repeatedly told that because he led demonstrations in support of civil rights. comparable in significance to the bad thing that we can prevent. arising both from natural and from manmade causes. we ought. claim to be morally neutral. My next point is this: if it is in our power to prevent something bad from happening. of course. Neither individuals nor governments can claim to be unaware of what is happening there. I begin with the assumption that suffering and death from lack of food. ABSOLUTISM AND ITS CONSEQUENTIALIST CRITICS. Martin Luther King. no account of proximity or distance. to do it. and our world would be fundamentally changed. This principle seems almost as uncontroversial as the last one. Jr. morally.

we shall be less effective than we would otherwise have been. Philosophy and Public Affairs. would not have seemed so extraordinary at other times and in other places. So Ambrosius says. vol. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University. such a proposal might seem narrow-minded. Now. it should be emphasized that these considerations are relevant only to the issue of what we should require from others. that we need to have a basic moral code which is not too far beyond the capacities of the ordinary man. that if we wear ourselves out through overwork. Given the present conditions in many parts of the world. I cannot see. while certainly contrary to contemporary Western moral standards. and not to what we ourselves ought to do. In any case. It follows from some forms of utilitarian theory that we all ought. among them Sidgwick and Urmson." [4] I now want to consider a number of points. University of Melbourne. more practical than philosophical. Since most people are self-interested to some degree. I think. 1. they will at least refrain from murder. 1 (Spring 1972). and Morality. hardly be honest to take this as evidence that it is not the case that we ought to do it. and the money you bury in the earth is the redemption and freedom of the penniless. In a society which held that no man should have more than enough while others have less than they need.for instance. morally. It may still be thought that my conclusions are so wildly out of line with what everyone else thinks and has always thought that there must be something wrong with the argument somewhere. to the naked.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Famine –Deontology We must help when we can to prevent famine. Of course. it is out responsibility to do it SINGER 1972 [Peter. the possibility that by spreading the idea that we ought to be doing very much more than we are to relieve famine we shall bring about a general breakdown of moral behavior seems remote. so as to get the best possible result? This would seem to be an empirical question. Equally. One objection to the Sidgwick-Urmson line of argument is that it takes insufficient account of the effect that moral standards can have on the decisions we make. Therefore the division and appropriation of property. pp. it is worth the risk. material goods are provided for the satisfaction of human needs. morally. These points challenge not the idea that we ought to be doing all we can to prevent starvation. The issue here is: Where should we draw the line between conduct that is required and conduct that is good although not required. however. In order to show that my conclusions. very greatly influenced by what people around him are doing and expecting him to do. It would. according to the natural order instituted by divine providence. but the idea that giving away a great deal of money is the best means to this end. Given a society in which a wealthy man who gives 5 percent of his income to famine relief is regarded as most generous. though. which proceeds from human law. to be working full time to increase the balance of happiness over misery. very few of us are likely to do everything that we ought to do. Nevertheless. for if there were no bad occurrences that we could prevent without sacrificing something of comparable moral importance. 229-243 [revised edition]] It has been argued by some writers. What it is possible for a man to do and what he is likely to do are both. the clothing you shut away. of natural right. I would like to quote a passage from a writer not normally thought of as a way-out radical. although a very difficult one. Finally. and laureate professor at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics. If the stakes are an end to widespread starvation. rather than a criticism of our ordinary standards of behavior. The second objection to my attack on the present distinction between duty and charity is one which has from time to time been made against utilitarianism. when all considerations of this sort have been taken into account. however. must not hinder the satisfaction of man's necessity from such goods. which are relevant to the application of the moral conclusion we have reached. mitigating circumstances can be adduced . it is not surprising that a proposal that we all ought to give away half our incomes will be thought to be absurdly unrealistic. The position I have taken here would not lead to this conclusion in all circumstances. they will do neither. to the poor for their sustenance. Crudely stated. for otherwise there will be a general breakdown of compliance with the moral code. it does follow from my argument that we ought. Famine. to be working full time to relieve great suffering of the sort that occurs as a result of famine or other disasters. whereas if we tell them that they ought to refrain from murder and that it is good to give to famine relief but not wrong not to do so. and it is also to be found in the Decretum Gratiani: "The bread which you withhold belongs to the hungry. this argument suggests that if we tell people that they ought to refrain from murder and give everything they do not really need to famine relief. my argument would have no application. whatever a man has in superabundance is owed. the conclusion remains: we ought to be preventing as much suffering as we can without sacrificing something else of comparable moral importance. Ira W. This conclusion is one which we may be reluctant to face. Affluence. no. 59 . why it should be regarded as a criticism of the position for which I have argued. Thomas Aquinas.

despite his strong antipathy toward the Mengistu Communist regime. or an instrument of diplomatic coercion. he and I could not be more different in our political and economic outlooks -.and lower-income countries as well. and having the means to obtain it. yet significant gaps remain between rights and reality. and generates individual entitlements and related obligations potentially enforceable in courts of law. In some ways. including access to food via means of production or Procurement." Whatever a government's perceived sins or the level of popular indignation. Professor of Applied Economics at Cornell. This undernutrition problem is overwhelmingly concentrated in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. 12 defines this right as "having physical and economic access to food of adequate quality and quantity. western industrialized societies as well. General Comment No. And we agree that food should never be a weapon in war. BARRET. Never has there been a time when the capacity to end global hunger has been greater. Co-Director of the African Food Security and Natural Resources Management program at Cornell and editor of the American Journal of Agricultural Economics.13 In 1999. though pockets of hunger and malnutrition remain in all countries. While the global community is adequately providing access to food for 1.Deontology We have a moral obligation to stop hunger wherever it is needed. The most eloquent affirmation of this principle came from President Ronald Reagan when he approved US aid to Ethiopia in 1985 during the great famine there." Access should be sustainable and protect human dignity. Jean Ziegler. Food is a basic human right that we have the resources to uphold. We do not see the world through the same lens. Deputy regional director for CASE International. the United Nations Committee on Economic. MORRIS.5 billion more people than it was able to feed twenty years ago. Social and Cultural Rights clarified the right to food when it attached a "general comment" on this right to the ICESCR. 2005 [Christopher.especially women and children -. Food Aid After Fifty Years: Recasting its Role. Executive Director of the World Food Programme. but on one point we could not agree more: vulnerable. hungry people -. Routledge. 112] Numerous authors note that the interest in human rights – and particularly the right to food – increasingly dominates humanitarian and development debates. The right to food is generally understood to constitute a claim of the individual vis-a-vis the state in which s/he resides. AND MAXWELL.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Famine .have a right to food. He put it quite simply: "A hungry child knows no politics.he is a leading Swiss socialist and I am a confirmed American capitalist. This underlines the difference between needs and rights – rights imply an obligation on behalf of other parties that needs do not. and as obesity problems associated with excess food consumption become widespread health concerns not only in the high-income countries but in middle. Statement to the Executive Director of the Security Council) The United Nations has a Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food. more than 800 million people remain chronically undernourished and hungry. pg. 60 . June 30th 2005 (James T. we cannot withhold aid as a political tactic in an emergency.

Food insecurity can also contribute to the outbreak of conflict.not to mention in that she also probably already has the Bomb. and domestic instability in Zimbabwe. outside powers can more easily find client states there than. Vol. http://www. Very few countries in Africa are beholden to any particular No. Marc J. conflict has an enormous impact on human (food. a proxy war alone may not induce the Great Powers to fight each other. DC. 61 . a political scientist. Improved early warning and response (with more technically-advanced use of geographic information systems and satellites plus onthe." thank you. personal. Famine Early Warning System (FEWS)—by establishing grain reserves and minimal food-aid obligations for donor nations. And Thomas Marchione. But an African nuclear strike can ignite a much broader conflagration. Rwanda. 2. 1994)—an impact well beyond the immediate conflicts and combatants. in Europe where the political lines have long since been drawn. such a strike would in the first place have been facilitated by outside help . Civil wars in the Congo (the country formerly known as Zaire). India. CONFLICT: A CAUSE AND EFFECT OF HUNGER Earthscape. In the Horn of Africa in the 1970s. Ethiopia is a case in point: in the 1970s the failure of Emperor Haile Selaissie's government to respond to food shortages touched off his overthrow. engineering. environmental. And this strategy was largely successful in preventing drought-induced famines in the 1980s and 1990s. Africa is an ocean of troubled waters. Somalia and Sierra Leone. 2003 an In sum. 7. Rabid Tiger Project. etc. politically-oppressed populations. U. and some people love to go fishing.ground informants) became part of a deliberate international political strategy to prevent food insecurity and prevent famine or civil disruption. Ellen Messer Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a visiting associate professor at the School of Nutrition Science and Policy. RABID TIGER NEWSLETTER. 11/18/2002 Founder. and political) security (UNDP.html. as well as occasional brushfire and other wars (thanks in part to "national" borders that cut across tribal ones) turn into a really nasty stew. an African war can attract outside involvement very quickly. triggering chronic famines and civil wars. Thus. She was previously director of the World Hunger Program at Brown University. Geopolitically speaking. But the famine experience of Ethiopia in the 1980s demonstrated that improvements in famine early warning are not sufficient to ensure the successful prevention or mitigation of both famines and the possibility that denial of access to food will ignite conflict. if the other powers are interested in a fight. Certainly. health.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Africa War Food insecurity causes conflict and civil wars in Africa. is Special Assistant to the Director General at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington. The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear war is most likely to start in Africa. Sudan and other countries. Tufts University. Of course. 1980s. These conflicts cause global war. who are willing to push the button rather than risk being seen as wishy-washy in the face of a mortal threat and overthrown. and 1990s. The international community responded to these calamitous conditions through the UN system by strengthening the FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS). Famines in the Sahelian nations of Upper Volta and Niger in the 1970s also triggered coups when governments proved unwilling or incapable of responding to these conditions or made only selective responses. Jeffrey Deutsch. is Nutrition Advisor at the Bureau for Humanitarian Response. http://www. The capacities of the World Food Programme and bilateral agencies' capacities to deliver food and development assistance were also expanded. Africa is open range. say. community. or Asia where many of the countries (China. South Africa is a major exception in this respect . p. Agency for International Development. We've got all too many rabid tigers and potential rabid tigers. Thus.earthscape. Japan) are powers unto themselves and don't need any "help. droughts devastated already food-insecure.S. economic.S. scientific. It also strengthened alternatives to GIEWS— such as the U.

demobilization and reintegration efforts in Africa. This. Statement to the Executive Director of the Security Council) Chronic hunger in the African countryside is a destabilizing influence that undermines political stability and security. Hungry children are far more easily recruited as child soldiers in places like northern Uganda. We need a dedicated effort through school feeding and other activities to keep these children in rural areas and in school. food aid is used to help restore social and economic sectors. Executive Director of the World Food Programme. has reduced the movements of nomads and led to overgrazing in areas with insufficient water. makes progress in the Doha Round on dismantling subsidies and other trade distorting practices critical for rural Africans. Burundi. and the result has been drought-like conditions.they too will act as a magnet in rural-urban migration. and the means to keep their families healthy. WFP invests heavily -. In the West Africa. often contributing to social disintegration and crime.000 former army and militia combatants in the DR Congo where pressure to demobilize and disarm has grown in recent months.” WFP food aid is now a tool to support education. for example. As one WFP report noted. When families can neither plant nor market livestock products. increasing crime and governmental capabilities MORRIS. Lagos and Lusaka experiencing growth rates of over 6 percent per has led to higher rather than lower rates of unemployment and social instability.000 combatants in Liberia.undoubtedly first in urban areas -. Morris. we have targeted 800. In the last five years alone. and cereal prices have skyrocketed. shelter. We have seen this problem for decades not just in Sudan. for example. where thousands are still displaced by over a decade of war. and progress is impossible if people lack basics like food. The current terms of trade for the continent's agricultural products are also poor. 62 . At a certain point the capacities of municipal governments are stretched to the limit and social demands are not met. especially among competing ethnic groups perhaps not accustomed to sharing the same political space. fighting has reduced cultivation. DR Congo. Projections for urban population growth in sub-Saharan Africa are among the highest in the world with cities like Nairobi.acts as a lure. The economy in North Darfur is now in shambles. Rwanda and Angola. The impact of rural urban migration on employment in Africa has been precisely the opposite of Western Europe and the United States -. Just this past week we approved a new demobilization aid package for 150. Sierra Leone. Senegal and other countries as well. to return to their home village if they do not have sufficient food tide them over to the next harvest. Competition for limited food resources can ignite violence and instability. by the way. over 80 percent of the poorest people are rural. The violence in Darfur. help rebuild communities and give people the means to safeguard their own welfare. There is little concerted investment to encourage Africans to remain in the countryside. In countries like Uganda and Kenya. Food aid has been a critical component in disarmament. Most markets are closed. further undermining rural economies. June 30th 2005 (James T.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Africa War Lack of food causes African instability – it forces people to cram into cities. aggravating internal political and social tensions. “today’s stability is fragile. There is a chance that as ARVs become more widely available -. It spurs the continuing migration of rural people into cities.when we get the funding -. Waves of AIDS orphans are fleeing the countryside and arrive in cities without any means of economic support. Somalia. June 30th 2005 (James T. but in Mauritania. the percentage of funding devoted to agriculture has dropped from 12 percent in the early 1980s to a mere 4 percent today. The fact that African agriculture is still so dependent on rainfall and there are comparatively large pastoral populations contributes to population movements that can also incite conflict. Yet if you look at ODA statistics. for example. Lack of food in Africa exacerbates refugee crises. Executive Director of the World Food Programme. It is difficult to persuade a family in Angola. where the existence of at least some basic social services -- including subsidized or free food -. they begin to move. African Governments and international donors have neglected investment in agriculture which aggravates the problem of poverty. Statement to the Executive Director of the Security Council) The continuing presence of large numbers of IDPs and refugees is inherently a threat to both political and economic stability and the threat of hunger presents significant complications in resettling repatriation packages that allow ex-combatants to feed themselves and their families while they get re-established at home.

fanning fears he would stage a violent crackdown to retain power [.60 per 100 pounds in Chicago. This week we've seen a continuation of that alarm as the crisis has spread.'' Mother Earth holds about 4 percent of its $100 million funds in the grain. a day after President Robert Mugabe urged Zimbabweans to defend seized land. No.9 percent to $21. 2008 (D-Day delivered by Newstex) -. 51. and presumably. 1995 (Jonathon. announced plans to buy 1 million tons and some of the world's largest exporters cut sales to ensure they can feed their own people. In the midst of a political crisis where longtime dictator Robert Mugabe has apparently lost national elections but won't give up his position. Left on its own.Last week I tried to call some attention to the looming world food crisis that is resulting from soaring prices on staples like rice and wheat. March. six hours theyre reinvading. she said. you know that there's a major problem out there. however slow and uncertain it may be in coming. When you see wheat harvests becoming a more prized commodity than heroin harvests in Afghanistan. The impact on global security is great. We've seen that grinding poverty can be a magnet for extremism and fundamentalism. Philippine President Gloria Arroyo announced two rice tenders today and pledged to crack down on hoarding. Economic development is the solution. Yemen and Indonesia.. Anyone found guilty of "stealing rice from the people'' will be jailed. REGIONAL CONFLICTS ESCALATE TO GREAT POWER NUCLEAR WARS Dean. in North Korea. Already we're seeing incidents in places like Egypt. Another example of geopolitical concerns of world hunger is in Zimbabwe. Rice climbed to a record for a fourth day as the Philippines.'' Roland Jansen. Vol. advisor on International Security Issues for the Union of Concerned Scientists.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Resource Wars Food prices kept at current levels for the long-term lead to massive resource wars. Pakistan. 9. This is basically a preview of the resource wars that will result if we continue to ignore the disastrous effects of climate change. including the United States. lexis) Experts throughout the world expect growing population pressures and increasing environmental stress to develop over the coming decades into intense. Lexisnexis accessed 7/29/08) Apr. Cameroon (40 died in riots in February). rose as much as 2. within five. Rice. In Masvingo where the police have been very cooperative. This is a national security crisis as well as a moral one. a country with 10. this process occurred in Israel. India. as nations without access to adequate food supplies will create civil unrest and perhaps even the toppling of many regimes. Iraq. for example. South Africa. the staple food for half the world. In past decades. unchecked regional violence and the fear of further violence will lead more states to develop nuclear weapons. regional violence can lead to confrontation and even war between the great powers. said Trevor Gifford. "We're in for a tough time. D-Day 08 (April 9.and it would markedly increase the vulnerability of the United States to direct attack. it would lead the present nuclear weapon states to modernize and increase their weapons . Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Ivory Coast. 63 .000% inflation and almost totally reliant on world food aid.. And it should be of particular concern where in the world these sparks of violence and rioting would occur. every time they remove invaders. Haiti. Uzbekistan. he told The Associated Press. But consider that nearly half of the 160 million in Pakistan are "food insecure" and risk malnutrition and starvation from rising prices. before paring gains. The price has doubled in the past year. 2. A world with 20 or 30 nuclear weapon states would not only make a more effective global security system impossible. the biggest importer. president of the Commercial Farmers Union. and as a result resource-poor nations will have little recourse. In the final analysis. as might occur. chief executive officer of Pfaffikon. "you will have huge problems of daily nutrition for half the planet. in the event of conflict between Ukraine and Russia or between China and its neighbors. in particular with respect to seizing farms. 45. Unless prices decline. But the world also needs effective regional conflict-prevention procedures.] Invasions that began Sunday worsened with intruders entering at least 23 farms in southern Masvingo province and northern Centenary. Wealthy or resource-rich nations will simply pull their goods from the world market and retrench to benefit their own citizens. violence has spread. far-reaching social unrest and regional conflict. p. Militant ruling party supporters invaded white-owned farms Monday. said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Zurich today. 2008 Wednesday 3:40 PM EST “World Food Crisis Update”. Switzerland-based Mother Earth Investments AG.

Montas said. "History is full of wars that started because of this kind of problem. 2008 The head of the International Monetary Fund warned Friday that soaring world food prices can have dire consequences.N. peacekeeping force distributed 14 tons of rice. High food prices cause massive resource wars..N. corn and other staple foods like milk particularly hurt developing nations.000 tons are available stock and will be distributed over the next two months starting Thursday. including the risk of war. as well as stoking broader inflation."As we know. as food represents as much as 60-80 percent of consumer spending in developing nations. she said.N. Program spokesperson Benita Luescher told CBS News correspondent Michelle Miller." Strauss-Kahn told a news conference at the close of the IMF spring meeting here.. mission in Haiti continue to support various projects aimed at creating jobs.Skyrocketing prices on rice.N. "The planet must tackle it. "What we're seeing is a perfect storm. beans. U. wheat. The IMF chief said the problem could also threaten democracies. Haitian lawmakers fired Prime Minister Jacques Edouard Alexis over the rioting. Once productive farmland has been abandoned as farmers struggle to grow crops in soil devastated by erosion. Children's Fund will double its child feeding program to combat malnutrition and spend some $1.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Resource Wars Food prices could trigger war in the world’s poorest regions and increase the severity of current conflicts Agence France Press Apr 12." Globally. Globally. calling for action to keep inflation in check.6 million on water and sanitation projects in the northwest and Artibonite regions. He also said France is doubling its food aid budget this year to about $95 million because 37 countries are experiencing "serious food crises." he said. Asked whether the crisis could lead to wars. natural disasters linked to climate change. even in countries where governments have done all they could to help the local population." he said. if they go on like they are doing today . Thirty-seven countries currently face food crises. country team in Haiti. which has long been haunted by chronic hunger.N. spokesman for the U.3 million. deforestation.. The World Food Program and the U. the IMF has said. are driving up the cost of food. CBS News April 18. there are risks of war. rising food costs have lead to social unrest in several countries such as Haiti and Egypt.000 tons of food and other help for Haitians in coming days as part of efforts to confront unrest over rising prices that set off recent rioting. flooding and tropical storms. French President Nicolas Sarkozy suggested a global partnership among financial institutions. Anger over surging food prices has threatened stability Haiti. (leading) to disruption of the economic environment. said the 8. Montas said. food prices have risen 40 percent since mid-2007.Higher energy prices. Strauss-Kahn responded that it was possible.500 Haitians are already employed by these projects which have a combined budget of $2.'s Food and Agriculture Organization has said. "When the tension goes above and beyond putting democracy into question. the U." he said. those kind of questions sometimes end in war. the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere. Mamadou Bah."Food prices.000-member U." Meanwhile. warning that social unrest could even lead to war. food prices have risen 40 percent since mid-2007. where the bulk of income is spent on the bare necessities for survival. the consequences will be terrible. and competition for grain used to make bio-fuels like ethanol. Egypt and elsewhere were an "extremely serious" problem. governments and the private sector to tackle the reasons for rising food prices. sugar and cooking oil to 1. 64 . Three Sri Lankan peacekeepers were injured by gunfire early last week." International Monetary Fund managing director Dominque Strauss-Kahn said." he said. Protests and looting in Port-au-Prince left at least seven dead last week. He was a finance minister in the late 1990s in France. officials said Thursday that United Nations programs will distribute 8. Brazilian members of the U. pregnant women and nursing mothers in the north.In recent months. The World Food Program blames soaring food prices on a convergence of rising energy costs. too. Dominique Strauss-Kahn told France's Europe-1 radio that the price rises that set off rioting in Haiti. The U. west and central regions of Haiti. including more than 80 percent of its rice.N. Haiti is particularly affected because it imports nearly all of its food. 2008 WASHINGTON (AFP) Rising food prices could have terrible consequences for the world."Hundreds of thousands of people will be starving .Development gains made in the past five or 10 years could be "totally destroyed. including a Nigerian officer in the 9. If the world wanted to avoid "these terrible consequences. learning from the past. compared to about 10-20 percent in industrialized countries. according to the Food and Agriculture Organization." Strauss-Kahn was appointed last year to head the IMF. Also on Friday.. such as toppling governments and even triggering wars. Some 2. spokeswoman Michele Montas said food provided by the World Food Program will focus on children.500 families in the capital's sprawling Cite Soleil slum Tuesday. The increases hit poor people hardest.N. peacekeeping force who was pulled from a car and killed Saturday." then rising prices had to be tackled.

Rocketing food prices — some of which have more than doubled in two years — have sparked riots in numerous countries recently. Similar protests exploded in Senegal and Mauritania late last year.8599." says Joachim von Braun. Millions are reeling from sticker shock and governments are scrambling to staunch a fast-moving crisis before it spins out of And Indian protesters burned hundreds of food-ration stores in West Bengal last October. burning government buildings and looting stores. accusing the owners of selling government-subsidized food on the lucrative black market. protests have turned violent.00. all asking one question: How long will the crisis last? 65 .1717572. Rioters tore through three cities in the West African nation of Burkina Faso last month. he notes.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Resource Wars High food Prices Result in Regional Instability Times 08’ [http://www. "This is a serious security issue. Days later in Cameroon.html] Add this to the list of items that could seriously threaten world peace: food. From Mexico to Pakistan. leaving around 20 people dead. director-general of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). in Washington. a taxi drivers' strike over fuel prices mutated into a massive protest about food prices. he has been bombarded by calls from officials around the world. In recent weeks.

compared with 21 percent. Switzerland-based Mother Earth Investments AG. Iraq. ``you will have huge problems of daily nutrition for half the planet. curbed sales this year to protect domestic stockpiles.7 million tons this year from 1. The price has jumped 48 percent this year. ``Central banks will have to start taking measures to slow the inflation pain down. the organization said on its Web site. Urban food protests in response to rising food prices in low and middle income countries. the Department of Agriculture said yesterday.233. Mauritania. if the price of grain doubles. but in the late 1990s the trend reversed and the number began to rise. or 2. about 2 percent of the crop was seeded.Rice climbed to a record for a fourth day as the the United Nations said in a report yesterday. Mozambique and Senegal have also experienced unrest in the last several weeks related to food and fuel prices.179. said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. said exports including Vichai Sriprasert.50 per 100 pounds. food aid will be reduced by half. ``I am leading the charge'' against any officials and businessmen who divert supplies or distort the price of the staple food. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials more than tripled in the past six years as global demand led by China outpaced supplies of metals and crops.48 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade.S. and Zimbabwe. chief executive officer of Pfaffikon. Wholesale costs in India rose 7 percent in the week ended March 22.9 million tons in 2007 to discourage speculation by local traders. Rice seeding in the U.miniwatt. Vietnam and India. April 8 (Bloomberg) -. former president of the Thai Rice Exporters' Association. Curbs on Exports” http://www. GRAIN TO FUEL CARS IS RAISING WORLD FOOD PRICES http://64.pdf+food+prices+and+ethanol] The number of hungry people in the world has been declining for several decades. the fastest pace in more than three years. according to police reports. Commodity prices are posting their seventh year of gains.. according to the report. Burkina Faso. Egypt. the biggest importer. As many as seven people died from exhaustion or in fights while waiting in bread lines in Egypt. said in a report yesterday. Cameroon. could lead to political instability that would add to the growing list of failed and failing states. Pakistan sent troops to guard flour mills in January.S.60 per 100 pounds in Chicago. 66 . the biggest rice-producing state. The World Bank in Washington says 33 nations from Mexico to Yemen may face ``social unrest'' after food and energy costs increased for six consecutive years. Soaring prices could lead to increased unrest. said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Zurich today. The Philippines. Four people died in two days of rioting last week over food prices in Haiti. is tightening controls over domestic sales and buying more overseas. a soft-commodities analyst with Standard Chartered Plc. Philippine President Gloria Arroyo announced two rice tenders today and pledged to crack down on hoarding.104/scholar?hl=en&lr=&scoring=r&q=cache:ldT8IgomYGcJ:www. The price has doubled in the past year. Rice futures for May delivery ended the day lower. Rice. Sim and Rossingh 08 (Glenys and Danielle. Wheat traded in Chicago has more than tripled in three years. citing the United Nations World Food Program's executive director Josette the western hemisphere's poorest country. The price of rice from Thailand. announced plans to buy 1 million tons and some of the world's largest exporters cut sales to ensure they can feed their own people. farm secretary Yap said on March 19. Unless food prices decline. is behind last year's pace because of flooding in growing regions. such as Mexico. Ivory Coast. Since food aid programs typically have fixed budgets. who heads global commodities research in London at Merrill Lynch & Co.'' Francisco Blanch. Arroyo said in a televised speech today. we will see serious malnutrition in over half the world’s population. dropping 52 cents. ``What we see in Haiti is what we're seeing in many of our operations around the world -. Anyone found guilty of ``stealing rice from the people'' will be jailed. Philippines Imports The Philippines may raise imports of milled rice by as much as 42 percent to 2. Standard Chartered yesterday increased its 2008 rice forecast by 12 percent to $18. Brown 10-05-07 Earth Policy Institute MASSIVE DIVERSION OF U.'' the report said. The government's rice tenders are in April and May. Ofon said. rose as much as 2. Farmers in six states have planted 11 percent of their crop versus 21 percent a year earlier. to $20. the world's biggest supplier. Liberia. China.'' The Philippine government had asked fast-food chains and restaurants to serve half portions of rice to cut waste. Egypt. Stockpiles are at their lowest since the 1980s and demand for the grain has gained 40 percent in two decades. including Chad. Dubai-based Ofon said. she said.9 percent to $21. Food importers may not be able to meet their needs because of the export limits. Half Portions ``We are starting to see conflict and civil unrest. Global Inflation Rising food prices are fueling global inflation.'' Mother Earth holds about 4 percent of its $100 million funds in the grain. Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap said March 26.'' Roland Jansen. Haiti. which imports about 15 percent of its rice. which will spark numerous conflicts and riots.rising prices that mean less food for the hungry. April 8th. Many of these are considered failed and failing states. ``We're in for a tough time. before paring gains. The United Nations currently lists 34 countries as needing emergency food assistance. ``The need to avert social tensions from high food prices'' has made ``food sufficiency even more urgent. “Rice Jumps to Record on Philippine Imports. In Arkansas.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Failed States Higher Food Prices Lead to an Increase in Failing States Brown 07’ [Lester R. accounting for more than a third of global rice exports. also threatening social stability. may climb another 25 percent this year. Unless prices decline.'' Abah Ofon.5 percent. such as in Haiti recently. the staple food for half the world.

Eric Holt-Giménez and Loren Peabody. and where government and industry are unresponsive. Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy) The skyrocketing cost of food has resurrected the specter of the "food riot. Without massive. soy prices were 87% higher. Mauritania. As of March 2008. Italy. WHICH WILL INCREASE WITHOUT REFORM HOLT-GIMENEZ AND PEABODY 08 (“From Food Rebellions to Food Sovereignty: Urgent call to fix a broken food system” Posted May 16th. 67 . and Haiti. Rather they are angry demonstrations against high food prices in countries that formerly had food surpluses. Senegal. the poorest country in the western hemisphere. The Economist’s comparable index stands at its highest point since it was originally formulated in 1845. The food crisis will get worse before it gets better. with food prices increases of 50-100%. They reflect demands for food sovereignty: people’s political and economic right to determine the course of their own food systems." The World Bank reports that global food prices rose 83% over the last three years and the FAO cites a 45% increase in their world food price index during just the past nine months. Egypt. Morocco. But the protests are not simply crazed “riots” by hungry masses. Over 100 people have been killed and many more injured. people have taken to the streets in Mexico. immediate injections of food aid. rice had climbed 74%.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food Riots HIGH FOOD PRICES ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO FOOD RIOTS. Yemen. Not surprisingly. and maize was up 31%. Executive Director. 2008. In Haiti. driving the poor to eat biscuits made of mud and vegetable oil angry protestors forced the Prime Minister out of office. Cameroon. average world wheat prices were 130% above their level a year earlier. Indonesia. Burkina Faso. 100 million people in the Global South will join the swelling ranks of the word’s hungry.

Thailand. she says. "They would add the occasional piece of meat or chicken. Toronto Star SECTION: NEWS. the responsibility for warding off the starvation that could trigger massive global unrest falls on the shoulders of aid providers and their donors." 68 . "We know that calories a day to survive healthily. she says. That's three adults should have about 2.donors should begin to curtail domestic subsidies for producing biofuel. many were already spending more than half their incomes on food . The upward surge in price may not last. And. social and economic policy co-ordinator for New York-based Global Policy Forum. more medical care. It's a vicious circle of misery. "Small-scale farmers should be producing for local markets. profiteering and increased production of biofuels that feed vehicles rather than people. “A vicious circle of misery. higher fuel and fertilizer costs have escalated prices so much the government staged a dramatic crackdown on rice theft. Oxfam Canada's humanitarian co-ordinator.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food Riots FOOD PRICES THREATEN WORLD SECURITY AND CAUSE MASSIVE HUNGER WARD 08 (The Toronto Star.and before the price spike. Cameroon. Pg. he says. In the long term. In Australia. chronic hunger will become the norm. Canada donated about $161 million of the agency's $2. which dampen incentive for growing food crops. the Philippines. The humble foodstuff almost seems targeted by a malevolent agri-god. For countries like El Salvador.000 days away from the WFP's deadline for launching cutbacks if its plea for support isn't heeded." His words reflect frustration over the complex causes of the price spikes. In the Philippines. In North Korea." says Katarina Wahlberg. where money buys 50 per cent less food than it did last year . "There are short.and long-term things we can do to help. Children are especially vulnerable to malnutrition." Robert Zeigler. The "six degrees of separation" between rich and poor countries are rapidly shrinking. from historic lows in food stocks aggravated by global warming to higher consumption of meat and dairy products in emerging economies.” Olivia Ward. and beans. and it will drop pretty quickly. a third of the crop was decimated by floods. Uzbekistan and beyond. In 2007. donor countries and aid agencies are wrestling with some of the toughest policy a tonne." Now. With food riots spreading from Haiti to Egypt. Yemen. April 20. head of the Philippines-based International Rice Research Institute. Hunger means more illness. and perhaps a tortilla. "it's coming down to rice. experts say. but not anywhere near $300 a tonne. "If you cut back to 1." says Mia Vukojevic." And less of it. rice is becoming unaffordable in quantities that sustain life for the most destitute. The current price is about $1. Wahlberg adds." says Rowe. Once the fallback food of the poorest. to escalating energy costs. Increasingly. A09) Salvadoran President Elias Antonio Saca declares it a "perfect storm" that "might become a hurricane that could upset not only our economies but the stability of our countries. Since last January its price has leapt by 80 per cent on world markets.9 billion budget. decisions in recent memory.000 they will get sick. wealthy donor countries have to increase their contributions to WFP and other aid agencies. more time to recover.aid is especially urgent. Agencies are only beginning to lengthen the list of destitute people who are dependent on their help. In the short term. told Reuters. drought has almost halted the largest rice mill in the southern hemisphere. the link between food security and world security has never been stronger. more deaths. but there's little chance of a return to the days of cheap and available rice supplies." The UN will focus on rising food prices when its agencies meet in Switzerland on April 28.300 As a result. As the price of basic staples soars and global aid reaches the breaking point. "In Salvador the poor used to survive on rice. 2008. "We will hit a peak. they must take a hard look at the side effects of globalization that make the poorest countries dependent on imported food.

The ministers also warned that the rising cost of oil and other commodities could spur broader increases of prices and wages. who does Summers's old job at the US treasury. But that depends on the US housing market stabilising. severe downward pressure on the dollar that threatens to become a disorderly plunge. the world economy because steps to spur economic activity. accompanied by an extended period of weakness in the eurozone and spillover effects on the rest of the global economy through weaker trade flows and tougher credit conditions. tighter credit conditions and a falling stock market. April 18.” the statement said. rising unemployment. rising food prices make it harder to avoid recession in the West. Journalist. For one thing. under this alternative scenario it says there would be a deeper and longer period of falling growth in the US. New York Times“Surging Oil and Food Prices Threaten the World Economy. Gordon Brown considers this to be a serious crisis and is right to call for a global response. the still-sizeable global imbalances that have resulted in massive trade surpluses in Asia. a far bigger drop in equity and property prices than it currently expects. said he expected to see some impact from lower interest rates and tax cuts by the third quarter of this year. pose a serious challenge to stable growth worldwide. 2008. and massive trade deficits in the US. Guardian Weekly.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Economy Impact HIGH WORLD FOOD PRICES ENSURE A GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN Elliot. “Elevated commodity prices. and an unwillingness on the part of foreign investors to continue buying US assets. can also lead to price increases. which have set off street protests across the world. Lexis) The first is that it is far too early to say that the worst is over.” 69 . The IMF says that risks are still heavily weighted to the downside. The combination of inflation and low growth. the price of food will go up. the soft-landing thesis conveniently ignores the other headwinds facing the global economy. is difficult to escape “For a long time. though they stopped short of offering concrete solutions.nytimes. Finance ministers from the Group of 8 industrialized nations wrapped up a two-day meeting in Japan that was dominated by talk of rising petroleum prices. The specter of fighting inflation as the ministers try to revive their flagging economies would “make our policy choices more complicated. The world has suddenly woken up to what should have been blindingly obvious: trying to solve the problem of climate change by using crops for biofuel was a short-term fix with potentially lethal result. “Soft Landings and Hard Realities: The IMF Thinks We Can Ride Out This Crisis. 2008 (Larry. a record. enjoyed a combination of robust growth and low inflation. bigger losses for US banks. because until it does there is a real risk of a vicious circle of foreclosures. If you encourage farmers to use land that would have produced food for fuel. which have been only slightly reduced by a cheaper greenback and weaker growth. It produced an alternative scenario in which there would be a further tightening of credit conditions. Japan — The global economy faces a one-two punch from slowing growth and soaring fuel and food prices. known as stagflation. In a statement. since they stifle consumer confidence and make policy-makers warier about cutting interest rates. especially of oil and food. like lowering interest rates. Henry Paulson. a gloomier assessment of the prospects for long-term productivity growth in the US. It already believes there is a 25% risk of a global recession. High food prices kill the global economy MARTIN FACKLER.html?fta=y OSAKA. In addition. June 15. Finance Ministers Warn “ http://www. finance ministers from the world’s richest nations warned Saturday. This scenario looks just as realistic as the fund's baseline soft-landing forecast.” the statement said. That list was supplemented last week by global hunger caused by rising food prices. the ministers said higher prices of oil and other commodities threatened the world economy at a time when it was still reeling from the collapse of the housing market in the United States. These include rocketing commodity prices that are contributing to a sharp rise in imported inflation. there is a clear disjunction between the idea that this is the biggest financial shock since the Depression and the idea that there will be only a short-lived and relatively mild impact on growth. The ministers urged oil- rich nations to increase production to help reverse a trend that has pushed up oil prices to nearly $140 a barrel. collapsing consumer but it now faces headwinds. But There Could Be Far Worse News To Come”. Yet apart from the humanitarian need to help those going hungry.

taxation and prioritising government spending in order to lower budget deficit while protecting the poor. B4 The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Pakistan Continued high food prices push Pakistan’s economy and government over the edge. the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. a growing current account deficit and sinking foreign exchange reserves could all threaten Pakistans economy unless the new government took urgent action. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary. The Washington Times. The director of central intelligence. the countrys economy flourished. “The most dangerous place. It has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965. Neither country has initialed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. said World Bank by imported inflation. and world experts generally place Kashmir at the peak of their nuclear worries. Pakistan Newswire 08 (3/28. 2001. or indicated an inclination to ratify an impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.5 despite its political troubles. to offer an appropriate safety net for poor. “World Bank says Pakistan must take immediate action to prevent its economy from collapse”. United Nations predicts 2008 growth at 6. a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan.” p. the World Bank has warned. July 8. especially now that Musharraf has lost power. and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. Subsidy programmes could include cash transfers. World Bank said its team discussed changes in oil imports. EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE KASHMIRI AMERICAN COUNCIL. the Defense Department. Both India and Pakistan are racing like thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery vehicles. Growth can only continue if Pakistan adjusts to new global reality. l/n accessed 7/29) Pakistan must take immediate action to prevent its economy from collapse. This apocalyptic vision is no idiosyncratic view. which were given to families affected by devastating October 2005 earthquake. Under President Pervez Musharraf. 70 . but the economic picture for Pakistan is not good. South Asian conflict ensures nuclear winter Ghulam Nabi FAI. as foreign investment remained strong and stock market had posted gains. vice president Praful Patel. Their defense budgets are climbing despite widespread misery amongst their populations. The comments came after Bank officials met with representatives of new Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani. World Bank warned that the rising budget deficit. Bank noted there were some positive areas in economy. which has been led by consumer spending. higher inflation. which includes high prices for oil. It said painful adjustments would be needed to prevent a crisis sparked by high oil and food prices. Patel said. But there are fears that growth. could be hit This is not yet a crisis. commodities and foodstuffs such as wheat.

India may not exactly be food insecure today. In frontline States such as Punjab and Haryana grain mono-cropping has resulted in deterioration of soil health. and India cannot remain insulated. Relief from agricultural commodity inflation (called 'agflation') is unlikely anytime soon. admittedly a slow phenomenon. the future looks uncertain and somewhat scary. Any further rise in average temperatures during the growing season December-March can potentially affect yields. high energy prices lift grain prices worldwide. While demand continues to expand rapidly . So. Should traditional foods be diverted for burning as fuel? How ethical is it to burn food when millions across the world are hungry and cannot afford high-priced food? This debate is likely to continue for a while until the market returns to more sensible levels. for instance. Synthetic fertilisers. The demand-supply mismatch follows rising demand unmatched by production. We need to take cognisance of this looming threat.driven by income growth. are becoming more India's status serious as time goes by. Weather has turned suspect and water stress is becoming endemic. India too has taken a series of steps to shut out exports and augment imports. wheat is at the limit of heat tolerance. Tropical countries are at greater risk of being affected by climate change. Rising energy prices too contribute to food inflation globally as the cost of food production rises. We need heat-tolerant varieties that consume water efficiently. Russia imposed an export tax on wheat. Climate change and global warming have added a new dimension to the already unnerving market uncertainty. banned the use of grains for bio-fuels in June 2007. Adaptation and mitigation strategies need to be put in place to fight global warming. The research priorities are clear. An ecological disaster is waiting to happen. and wheat. Farm scientists have their task cut out. India's concerns relating to grains. can devastate agriculture. The water table has declined to alarmingly low levels.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit India Impact Module Rising food prices is inviting an ecological catastrophe in India. As a fallout of food inflation. in addition to wheat. There is now creeping dependence on wheat imports to augment domestic availability and rein in prices.output has turned unsteady in the last 6. OPINION GLOBAL WARMING MAY AGGRAVATE INDIA'S WHEAT WORRIES. Grains are becoming inaccessible and unaffordable for the poor. in addition to several others that already exist. Under Indian growing conditions. in particular. is another important grain that is susceptible to global warming. Business Line 08 (May 7. 71 . demographic pressure and changing food preferences . There is heightened awareness about the pernicious effects of rising average temperatures. China. This has an effect on market prices. but the widening supply gap does raise concerns over food security in the coming years. The per capita availability of foodgrains today is less than it was 15 years ago. use of energy for mechanised farming and transportation costs rise with higher energy costs. the 'food versus fuel' debate is becoming shriller. Wheat could be one of the crops most seriously affected by global warming. Global warming. Indian maize. in general. So.7 years. l/n accessed 7/30) Processors and consumers are scurrying to cover their requirements and save themselves from further price increases. Governments have recognised the threat from high food prices and have begun to take precipitate action to contain the damage.

N. The United Nations says that two-thirds of Haitians live on less than $1 a day." The cakes' raw material comes from a clay deposit outside Port-au-Prince. the cakes are the last resort. Now. U. "It stops the hunger.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Haiti High food prices are forcing 2/3 of the population of Haiti to do the unthinkable. officials say that food is available in the impoverished Caribbean nation. 72 . "You eat them when you have to.N. short of cash. eat mud” accessed via l/n) People in Haiti have become so desperate for food that many are eating mud. U." said Marie-Carmelle Baptiste. But prices are rising so fast that the Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that food will cost 80 percent more at the end of the year than it did in January. Baptiste said they have become more expensive to make. The high prices come in a country where much of the population is already living on the edge. In normal times. UPI 08 (July 29th. who makes mud cakes. but she does not want to raise her prices until she has to because she knows that. “Haitians. pregnant women use mud cakes as a source of calcium. The Guardian reported. eating mud in an attempt to relieve their starvation. they are famine food. for her customers. officials said.

particularly wages in the government sector. The rising food prices have helped fuel protests and strikes by working professionals around the country. and a man scurries away holding five round pieces of freshly baked bread. "What can I say? You can see this bread problem for yourself. known locally as "balady" or country bread. Economist Hanaa Kheir el-Din says the entire wage system needs to be overhauled.S. she says. And unsubsidized bread is in plentiful supply at local markets. “Egyptian Bread Crisis Stirs Anger”. Bread is such a vital staple food here that Egyptians use a different word for it than other Arabic-speakers do . but at the same time.voanews. Mar 24th. She shakes her head and moves into line. Yemen and even wealthy Saudi sugar. VOA News: http://www.they call it "aish." This bakery is selling round loaves of government-subsidized bread. a shortage of subsidized bread has resulted in long lines and occasional clashes in which several people have been killed. This is an emotional issue.over the past few months. she would end up spending about one quarter of her monthly income on bread alone. There is no shortage of bread for those willing and able to pay higher prices for it. "Balady bread in particular should not be made available to people who can afford better bread." said Kheir el-Din.but balady bread has been kept at five piasters a loaf. He says the bakery employees let some people inside to get bread quickly while he and the rest are waiting in line outside in the sun for hours. She says her family of five lives on a single pension of only 350 Egyptian pounds a month. rice. If she had to buy unsubsidized bread at five cents apiece. and women in the crowd shade themselves from the sun with plastic bags. The last time the Egyptian government tried to remove subsidies on bread." Back at the bakery. There are a lot of food prices which rose sizably .one of stagnant wages that have failed to keep up with the cost of living. and the loaves are smaller than the real balady ones. Last week." he said. leading to long lines and short tempers. and even doctors in public hospitals. the bread crisis is a symptom of a larger problem . "This should be targeted to the people who cannot afford to buy a 25. 16 Mar 2008 An Egyptian woman carries a tray of bread at a public oven in Giza. riots broke out and more than 70 people were killed. everything is rising .look at the oil price for instance. one that is growing as global food prices rise. VOA Correspondent Challiss McDonough has more from Cairo. shouting at each other and jostling for the best place in line. or less than one U.cfm?CFID=19734031&CFTOKEN=71827604) In Egypt. President Hosni Mubarak ordered the army to use its bakeries to make balady bread in an effort to stem the shortage. but the roots of the problem are more than just simple supply and demand. in 1977. including stopping the export of locally grown rice. rising food prices have fueled a shortage of this subsidized bread.or 40-piaster loaf. Several people have been killed in fighting that has broken out in bread lines or clashes between customers and bakers. and this is where the subsidy program has to be revised." which literally means "life. living on less than two dollars a day. But food subsidies now take up a huge portion of Egypt's annual budget." said Kheir el-Din. and the food subsidies cannot be removed until ordinary working Egyptians can earn a living wage. Egypt. Fatma says each of her family members eats two pieces of bread a day. "One has to revise the subsidy program along with revising the income policy." 73 . food prices have sparked demonstrations and riots in countries such as Morocco." Egypt's government has taken other measures to try to rein in rising food prices. McDonough 08 (Challiss. And other governments in the region are facing similar troubles . In Egypt. An Egyptian woman carries a tray of bread at a public oven in Giza. Fatma sighs as she stares at the raucous crowd pushing and shoving to get closer to the front. The president has ordered the army to use its bakeries to try to end the bread crisis. a heavy metal door swings open and then clangs shut quickly. At the bakery. A woman named Fatma says she waits here for two to three hours every day to buy bread for her family of five. But everybody may get this subsidized bread. But it is not simply a matter of supply and demand. and roughly 20 percent of the population is below the official poverty line. In recent months. saying under her breath. cent a loaf. Rising food prices and poverty have combined with corruption to create a bread problem that will not be easily solved. "May God have mercy on the poor. "You cannot pay a person 100 pounds a month as income and then let him buy whatever commodities are available in the market at market prices." The World Bank says Egypt's economy has been growing at a healthy rate of seven percent per year. Some people who buy the subsidized product resell it just down the street for twice the price. poverty has been growing too. So Egypt's poor are not seeing the benefits of the economic growth. even the president acknowledged that part of the problem is corruption. Egypt. but that costs five times as much. The price is fixed at five Egyptian piasters. Kheir el-Din says the subsidies need to be targeted to the neediest people. The heat is blistering already. That is similar to the wages earned by civil servants and factory workers. 16 Mar 2008 About 30 people are crowding around two small windows at a Cairo bakery.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Egypt Unless food price relief is given Egyptian civil unrest will continue to spark demonstrations and food riots. The corruption is not limited to selling subsidized wheat flour on the black market. She says she simply cannot afford to feed her children that way. Gesturing toward the chaos at the bakery window. The prices of everything have gotten so high. Another man who gives his name only as Samir waves his hand angrily toward the door. Economist Hanaa Kheir el-Din is executive director of the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies. Fatma says the unsubsidized bread is too expensive. "All other food prices have risen. and the flour which goes into it is delivered at a much lower price while the baker can sell it on the black market at several times the price. or just over $60.

The move was long overdue. The figure." the statistics bureau said. some observers caution that the mainland economy could also fall victim to sustained high inflation and slower growth." China's recent bout of inflation has been triggered mainly by soaring food prices. warning tougher measures were needed to handle the nation's most intractable economic problem. China's communist rulers have made the war on inflation one of their main economic priorities this year. it is vital for the government to keep its tightening policy stance to anchor inflationary expectations. in global markets for commodities and for food products. fearing that rising prices could impact social stability as the costs of essentials rocket." Despite avoiding the adverse effects of high food prices. and especially grain prices. the favourite meat for the vast majority of Chinese. continue to rise. The mainland has a long way to go to normalise prices of fuel and other things. May 12. while the public debt-to-GDP ratio is only about 20 per cent . China’s economy is poised to be severely hurt if high food prices continue." said Louis Kuijs. saying high prices abroad constituted a major pressure for the economy. "At the moment. What is more. "China's economy is quite well connected to the world economy. More can easily afford to maintain fuel subsidies via price controls. "It is linked to the fact that the international prices of primary products. And. Overall food prices increased by 22.3 percent more expensive over the same period. in mid-June. Steven Sitao Xu. according to the statistics bureau. The costs of such subsidies are mainly borne by affected state-owned companies in the form of a profit squeeze.5 per cent of gross domestic product this year. non-food prices increased by a mere 1. 2008. 74 ." the statistics bureau said in a press release. "Growth in consumer prices remains high. as soaring oil and food prices in world markets show no sign of easing. Peter Harmsen. Investment bank Goldman Sachs said the figures were higher than market expectations." "As underlying inflationary pressures remain undiminished. while pork. In fact.the budget surplus is expected to be 0. "That means many of the price impacts that are being felt at the global level. The way China is now importing inflation reflects its ever-greater integration with the global economy. Lexis China's inflation rate rose to 8. a senior economist with the World Bank's Beijing office. South China Morning Post.5 per cent in April to 7.7 per cent in May. and data from the statistics bureau data showed this remained the case last month. the decision to raise energy prices underscores Beijing's commitment to move towards a more sustainable growth path by liberalising politically sensitive but economically inefficient state price controls. released by the National Bureau of Statistics. Staff Writer. Chinese economic policymakers are certainly worried about rising prices. we must pay close attention to future price trends and prioritise the control of price increases and inflation even higher.3 percent growth in March from 8. not necessarily by Beijing and the yuan in the form of loss of investors' confidence. impacting domestic food prices. marked a reacceleration after the consumer price index weakened to 8. “Chinese economy is fit to weather stagflation” Lexis The spectre of stagflation looms over much of the global economy. are being felt in China as well. Agence France Presse.1 percent in April from a year earlier. "Global inflation has intensified.7 percent in February. but that was largely due to the effect of measuring the year-on-year increases from the already-elevated levels of last year. foreign economists said.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit China Module Increased food prices are severely hurting China’s ability to combat domestic hunger and threaten the nation’s economic growth. the government was forced to raise the state-mandated prices of petrol and electricity.8 percent in April from a year earlier. July 15. True. “China warns about inflation with price rises at near 12-year highs”. the government said Monday.5 percent in April. suggesting that "it is still far too early to claim success in the battle against inflation. Thanks to its strong fiscal profile . By contrast. staying near 12-year highs. But what about mainland China? Its economy continues to speed ahead. creating major outside pressure for China. became 68. 2008. Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan on Friday warned global inflation posed a threat to the country's speedy growth. its consumer price index fell from 8." Goldman Sachs said in a research note." Wang said in a speech at a financial forum in Shanghai. Staff Writer. Chinese policymakers' chief goal is to engineer a soft landing of the economy. but recently the central bank has been slamming on the brakes to curb inflation.

more or less recovering losses earlier in the year when worries over Western banks sparked global risk aversion. has prompting price rises that have in turn sparked inflation." the bank said in a research note. putting them down 12. Developed markets were also hit. "The credit crunch was very much a Western phenomenon. Investment bank Morgan Stanley says Asia stands to lose out the most from oil's rise as the region. particularly food and fuel in India and China. but S&P says they lost slightly less. 75 . US and emerging markets. investment director for fund manager Fidelity covering global. against 14 per cent for the equivalent global index.07 per cent in June. seeking diversification from a developed world downturn. is more energy reliant than other emerging markets. Emerging markets have proved largely "decoupled" from the Western credit crunch but inflation is proving a global problem. Their resilient and ever-growing demand for natural resources. Lexis Most emerging economies beyond a handful of crude producers are suffering from record oil and food prices." Hedge fund monitor EPFR says fund flows into emerging markets had been broadly positive this year but have now turned negative everywhere except the Middle East and Africa. Until late May emerging equities in particular had been doing relatively well. down 7. will still struggle with high inflation and the risk of economic overheating.5 per cent so far this year.90 per cent in the year to date. Benchmark MSCI emerging equities are down almost 17 per cent so far this year. Special Correspondent for the Birmingham Post. Some investors even moved into emerging markets. higher oil prices may also prompt Western buyers to seek suppliers closer to them due to higher delivery costs. Emerging markets have in some ways been a victim of their own success. "The monumental energy price increases will be a 'game change' for Asia. Index provider Standard & Poor says that by its indices emerging equity markets lost 10.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit China The combination of high food and oil prices has been uniquely detrimental for emerging markets like China. South Africa and Turkey also stand out as being vulnerable. Moreover. especially China. “Record oil and food prices hurt markets in East the most. Peter Apps. while Russia and the Gulf States. 2008. "Inflation is much more global. EMERGING MARKETS” July 9. which should be the main beneficiaries as crude prices soar. with Asian markets in general and China's in particular likely to be notable losers. Birmingham Post." said Mark Hammond.

fruit and vegetables because the snow and ice storms in southern China in January and February destroyed many horticultural crops. reducing the number of undernourished people by more than 150 million over the past 30 years. the price of staple foods like wheat and rice has more than doubled. and export some of the lessons . demand for food has changed. and announced that the government would give $2 million to the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) in response to the extraordinary difficulties it is facing as a result of rising food prices.5 million: the largest donation ever made by China to WFP for use in other developing countries. Like the tsunami that swept across the Indian Ocean in December 2004. these simple foods are also used to produce feed for animals and ethanol for biofuels. perhaps better than any other developing country. the country is making a major contribution to world food security. China is carrying a heavy burden for global food security. rapeseed and vegetables not just for their families but for other provinces too. to meet growing requirements at home and to stabilize prices. grains like wheat. Cyclone well as financial and other support . the average 6-year-old boy in China today is 6 kg heavier and 6 cm taller than he would have been 30 years ago. restrictions on exports and limits on the use of food for biofuel production. The State Grain Administration estimates its grain reserves hold between 150 and 200 million tons .to developing countries which are still struggling with poverty and hunger. rice.3 billion people.enough to meet up to six months' consumption and well above the 18 percent of consumption recommended by FAO. demands for grains.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit China key to food security China is critical to world food security. one in three Chinese children was malnourished. which accounts for 30 percent of the basket of goods on which inflation is calculated. I have seen how hard-working farmers in rural Anhui province toil to grow wheat. the increases in prices of basic foods such as bread and rice are disastrous. But China is not immune to food price pressure. Unfortunately. Personally. More than 95 percent of the grain it needs is grown in China. China has already made so much progress. Director of the World Food Program in China. a sign of poor nutrition. Notwithstanding the impressive increases in grain production in China over the past 30 years. Those increases have been attributed to rises in three main commodities: pork because a disease killed many of the herd last year. That's concrete evidence of better diets and health. this wave of high prices knows no borders. It is bringing a surge of suffering to poor people across the globe and its effects such as increased malnutrition and poverty will be felt for years to come. who spend 10 to 20 percent of their income on food. The people who spend more than half of their income putting food on the family table are now faced with the prospect of cutting back on more nutritious foods like meat and dairy. their impact is unrivaled Anthea Webb. will find it even harder to meet their needs this year. Now the world is counting on its farmers being able to continue increasing the amount of grain they can grow. China's role is fundamental. What has caused this dramatic change in food prices? Firstly. This brings China's donation to WFP in 2008 to $4. This uncanny convergence of factors . The amount of land and water available for agriculture is decreasing. or on desserts and other treats. and production has increased every year for the past four years. rising production costs and reduced supply because of bad weather . has been blamed for the high levels of inflation recorded in the past year. Secondly.including the World Food Program . “WHY CHINA IS CRUCIAL TO WORLD FOOD SECURITY” May 15.are counting on those measures to be successful. The WFP's executive director has called the effect a "silent tsunami". Lexis For us. corn and rice. that means cutting back on the number of times they eat at restaurants. China Daily. Over the past year the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)'s food price index has risen by 57 percent. however. WFP is hoping that it can learn from China's tremendous progress. Last week Premier Wen Jiabao said that "China is deeply concerned about food security". Food. On the international market. is also likely to contribute to higher rice prices. Whatever happened. Where does China fit into this picture? Already. And the best incentive is for farming to be profitable. Better machinery and irrigation could help this productive province grow even more. with the right kind of support from the government. Once upon a time. and cooking oil because it relies heavily on soybean imports. The very poorest . it is very hard to predict now how bad the impact of the calamity will be and what kinds of impact it will have on China. I have also seen that many of them still rely on buffaloes to till their fields and on rainfall to water their crops. high crude oil prices have impacted the cost of producing food. But for people who were just able to make ends meet last year. It knows that growing economies need healthy. Many commodity analysts . The government has demonstrated its concern over the issue of domestic food prices by introducing 10 measures to boost production and contain prices. 76 . who had planned to buy some of that rice. today just 7 percent of children are too short for their age. the people of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. which devastated much of the Irrawaddy Delta in Myanmar. The premier also said that by ensuring China can provide sufficient food for its population of 1. Today. fuel for their machinery and transport to market have also risen. by producing food for more than 20 percent of the world's population on less than 10 percent of its arable land.those who survive on 50 cents a day . especially at a time when the world is sliding into a food crisis.have created an economic "perfect storm". For the wealthier consumers. At a moment when world food security is facing unprecedented challenges from rising prices. Then.5 million tons last year. so much will depend on them being able to get better yields. On top of the suffering currently facing the people affected directly by the Cyclone. has seen first hand how economic development depends on food security. Shoppers from Beijing to Boston to Brussels have seen their grocery bill rise rapidly. few farmers are reaping the benefit of high food prices since the cost of fertilizers. the country's farmers face a tough challenge to keep increasing the amount of grain they grow at the same pace as demand is rising. These include incentives for farmers. the weather also plays a big part in agriculture and recent years have seen serious droughts in major grain-exporting nations such as Australia. China still played a very important role in the world's food security. the international price of which has grown steadily over recent years. 2008. reaching 501. I am optimistic that China's farmers can rise to this challenge. were used mainly as food for people. Thirdly. meaning their profit margins have decreased. It is the world's largest producer of grain.have started to reduce the number of meager meals they eat each day. since it has destroyed much of this year's crop. well- nourished and well-educated workers. In fact.

"Rising food prices may lead to income gains for net producers. Estimates on the price elasticity of poverty by commodity in the Philippines suggested that a 10 percent increase in non-food prices -. reposted at http://povertynewsblog. The effects of rising food prices were observed to be different across households. Such policies may push the economy into recession. Dumlao 08 (Doris. The study thus proposed an alternative price index for the poor Finally.html) MANILA.such as fuel and utilities -. the severity of poverty rose by 16. even in terms of utilities charges.3 percent in April has put the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas under more pressure to tighten monetary policy. The Philippine The study showed the dominating effect of rising food prices on poverty over the period of 2003-06.” The surge in the country's inflation rate to a three-year high of 8. with increasing food prices. a new study by an Asian Development Bank economist suggests.” the study said. the study said a 10 percent increase in the price of rice would force an additional 660. particularly staple food items such as rice. “Thus. The study also suggested that the decline in the standard of living due to food price increases was particularly greater for the poorest of the poor. the price increases in the Philippines have led to greater sufferings for the poorest segment of the population. An increase in fuel prices of 10 percent was also seen driving more people into poverty.” the study said. Separating the impact of specific commodity increases. The conclusion of a new research paper -. “In particular.” the study said. “At worse.” the study said.” it said. which will hurt the poor even more.000 Filipinos into poverty.” it added.3 million more Filipinos fall into poverty.” it said. The study showed that since 2003. “It is wiser thus to direct government policies towards stabilizing food prices. "In addition. Guinigundo said. the major factor causing high inflation in the Philippines in recent periods. "Specifically.For every 10 percent increase in food prices. First. many urban and rural poor who are food consumers and not necessarily producers suffer the most from rising food prices. and not just supply shocks. some will gain and some will lose. Using household surveys and detailed price data. we're looking at the second-round effects.blogspot. During the BSP's latest quarterly inflation briefing Thursday. top BSP officials said there were indications that demand pressures. but with a smaller headcount of 160. monetary policy may not be an effective tool to combat rising inflation.” The second trigger. “ADB: High food prices affect poor most. However.7 million people into poverty.was that inflation was hitting poor Filipino consumers harder than the more affluent ones. “Given these current trends moreover. the study analyzed the impacts of higher food prices on the average standard of living and on poverty for the Philippines. safety measures will be required particularly for the poorest of the poor to be able to cushion the negative impact of higher food prices on their spending. the poor are highly sensitive to the price changes in food. concerns over rising food prices are surmounting because such increase can undermine the gains from poverty reduction and human development that developing countries have experienced for the last decade or so. were also contributing to the sharp increases in consumer prices and that the central bank would have a role to play in cooling inflation and managing people's expectations.would drive an additional 1. If there are wage adjustments and transport fare adjustments.“Has Inflation Hurt the Poor? Regional Analysis in the Philippines” authored by ADB economist Hyun Son -. these households struggling to meet the minimum standards of living might have no choice but to cut down their expenditures on health and children's education. 77 . The non-food items of consumption have played a relatively minor role. was the role of the inflation expectations channel in managing actual inflation.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Poverty Rising food prices are forcing 2 and a half million people into poverty with each slight increase in the Philippines alone. BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said: “We're looking at two things. I think monetary policy will have a good scope for addressing inflation. about 2. Philippines -. “Hence. cause more poverty” May 8. the study found that the increase in food prices has been that takes into account the consumption patterns of the poor.000.8 percent while the standard of living declined by about 1 percent over the period.” the study said. once you see an early sign of evidence of second round effects.

event_summary&event_id=201764 Suneetha Kadiyala.of a generation. 18. a quarter of the population of Europe. between 1347 and 1352. as a matter of fact. And whereas death by plague was a merciful five days of agony. With Aids. HIV/AIDS can exacerbate food and nutrition insecurity: HIV/AIDS-related illness and the diversion of resources to AIDS treatment result in labor and capital shortages that threaten food supply. argued that food insecurity—a situation in which people cannot get enough food to lead fully productive lives—increases the risk of exposure to HIV/AIDS through factors such as increased migration and transactional sex. a scientist at the International Food Policy Research Institute. 2. exceeds $4 billion. The Black Death . It is comparable only to the Black Death of the Middle Ages in the terror it evokes and the graves it fills. Due to the strong connections between the prevalence of the virus and malnutrition. specifically those with large AIDS funding arms. as HIV raises energy requirements by 10-30 percent in adults.000 Africans will die today. it also compromises effectiveness and increases toxicity of anti- retrovirals. Of the 25 countries with the highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS.8 million people are already dead. the vector is humanity itself. The plague toll of tens of millions in two decades was a veritable holocaust. increasing risk factors such as migration and transactional sex.3 million infected worldwide (24. 21 are receiving assistance from the WFP. It is simply a waste. But there was proffered an explanation: It was the honour of bathing a battlefield with young blood. 10-16 http://www. more than a million lives were lost at the Battle of the Somme alone. on the other hand. 85 per cent of them African. Last year alone. 6. There is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. 78 .unwilling participants in a March of the Damned. But it was a death that could be avoided by the simple expedient of changing addresses and whose vector could be seen and exterminated. July 15. Kadiyala noted that malnutrition is not only associated with a decrease in immune function. she said. leading to a loss of farming knowledge. But Aids is without precedent. HIV is not satisfied until years of stigma and excruciating torture have been wrought on its victim. the nice person in the next seat in the bus.wilsoncenter. The daily toll in Kenya is 500.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit HIV/AIDS Famine exacerbates and contributes to HIV/AIDs transmission. the lives of 10 million young men were sacrificed for a cause that was judged to be more worthwhile than the dreams . today easily cured by antibiotics and prevented by vaccines . The 2007 budget for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).5 million of them Africans) carry the seeds of their inevitable demise . but it will be nothing compared to the viral holocaust: So far. Additionally. It is death contracted not in the battlefield but in bedrooms and other venues of furtive intimacy. for example. Aids does not come at a time of scientific innocence: It flies in the face of space exploration. Conversely. in which generals would use soldiers as cannon fodder. Every human being who expresses the innate desire to preserve the human genetic pool through the natural mechanism of reproduction is potentially at risk. There has never been fought a war on these shores that was so wanton in its thirst for human some of which Dey believes should be rerouted to improving nutrition: “There is a growing body of literature that indicates nutritional support is a vital part of a comprehensive response to HIV/AIDS. 2006 Food Security and Its Impact on International Development and HIV Reduction. 2000 Lexis Every age has its killer.” AIDs is a unprecedent threat to all life on the planet. 43. In food-scarce areas. During the First World War. But unlike the plague.the plague. AFRICA NEWS. the manipulation of genes and the mapping of the human genome. It is difficult to remember any time in history when the survival of the human race was so hopelessly in jeopardy.8 million lives went down the drain.killed a full 40 million Europeans. Mutuma Mathiu. AIDS deaths degrade formal and informal rural organizations. setting a trend that was to become fairly common. HIV-positive individuals are more susceptible to malnutrition. Aids. Wilson Center.even the mere living out of a lifetime . is a holocaust without even a lame or bigoted justification. Dey said that food security should be a priority for donor organizations.cfm?topic_id=116811&fuseaction=topics. patriotism or simply racial pride.

ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit HIV/AIDS Elevated food prices leads to an inability to treat HIV/AIDS in Africa Mallard 08 (Cole. effective global responses in the fight against HIV/AIDS. Often. but they come late.” He adds that international trade agreements can help increase Africa’s ability to sell its produce and revive the economy. someone will drop out of school or the workforce to care for an ill family member. for VOA News. the world doesn’t have the food to deliver. 2006 (Rosemarie North. and I think these things always come with time. 79 . are also compromised by constantly having to make additional appeals. International Federation editor of the Red Cross Red Crescent. http://www. it requires good nutrition. North. He says focusing on the grass roots level would enhance food availability as 30-voa25. he says. like the World Food Program. and if one’s income is threatened by sickness. much of the household income will be spent on medicines or doctors. From Toronto.” A lack of the nutrition gained from food makes the HIV/AIDS pandemic worse. by bringing in better seeds and better fertilizer and some small irrigation. you get a tremendous increase in crop productivity when you do that. without good nutrition. Finally. malnutrition hastens the progress of HIV/ AIDS and opportunistic infections. 2007) In homes where someone has HIV/AIDS. Stephen Lewis. he told Voice of America reporter Cole Mallard that without good nutrition it’s not possible for a person with HIV to handle the effects of anti- retroviral drugs and enhance their performance. Google. All this. July 30th. comes down to the fact that “for a grandmother who’s buried her own adult children and is looking after four or five grandchildren. There is a lethal nexus between food and HIV/AIDS. Alicia Keyes (l) and Stephen Lewis Stephen Lewis and singer Alicia Keys at Toronto AIDS conference in 2006 He says food security is an issue because “Africa is desperately short of food. antiretroviral drugs are not as effective. “I think that Professor Jeffrey Sachs has shown that with his millennium villages.” He adds that most Africans earn their living through agriculture. is now co-director of AIDS Free World.voanews. and the ability to produce enough food is increasingly limited.” But Lewis says agricultural productivity can be improved. and in the process of coming late you lose tremendous numbers of lives. ”The former UN AIDS envoy says the current rise in global food prices adds to the problem because countries that normally import food can’t afford it (he says that’s also true of oil prices) and agencies that deliver food to countries in crisis.cfm) AIDS experts say treating HIV/AIDS effectively requires more than medications such as anti-retroviral drugs. it’s a real crisis for the family. June 29. drought or famine. Canada. you simply cannot survive. This is one of the topics to be discussed at the 17th International AIDS conference in Mexico City. an international organization that promotes timely. Food Security-a paradigm shift. “then you’re in terrible difficulty. “but it requires a coordinated approach which is not in place. food security and sustainable livelihoods. the former UN special envoy for HIV/AIDS in Africa. and they only get one meal a day at school. D. reporting from Washington. People living with HIV/AIDS need more calories and nutrients each day.C. and the food prices at the local market are so high that she can’t afford to feed her kids on the weekend. editor of Red Cross Red Crescent. In addition.

HIV/AIDS leads to malnutrition by causing diseases that take nutrients from the body. September 2002 (Marti J van Liere. member of the Royal Tropical Institute of the Netherlands. Both AIDS and malnutrition are driven by poverty. With 3 million AIDS deaths in 2001. J van Liere. As well. income and will thus endanger the food security situation of the members of an AIDS affected household. the disease leads to losses in productivity. There is strong evidence that they operate in tandem. The latest figures of the FAO estimate that there are still more than 800 million people affected by hunger. September 2002. 80 . anorexia) Exclusive breast feeding. both at the individual level and at the social level : Malnourished individuals are more susceptible to become HIV-infected and more susceptible to secondary infections HIV infection and the secondary infections lead to malnutrition (increased nutritional requirements. HIV/AIDS and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa. diarrhoea. member of the Royal Tropical Institute. Most of those who die experience nutritional problems. we can calculate that 6 deaths per minute are due to HIV/AIDS. is one of the modes of transmission of the virus from the mother to her baby Finally. 3) Both AIDS and malnutrition are important killers in sub-Saharan Africa. Altogether there are 12 deaths per minute associated with malnutrition. pg. conflict. labour. and inequality.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit HIV/AIDs Malnutrition exacerbates HIV/AIDS by making people more susceptible to the disease. considered one of the most cost-effective nutrition behaviours for adequate growth and nutritional status of the baby.

"It is unquestionable . "we are up against a long cycle of rising prices". The Ehrlichs’ rivet-popper trope makes this same point. And if our species is very unlucky. the report said. which would cut agricultural output. it appears that civilization will disappear some time before the end of the next century – not with a bang but a whimper. Humanity will have to forgo many of the direct economic benefits it might have withdrawn from Earth's wellstocked genetic library. London Financial Times Asia Edition. and local climates will become harsher. for example. By the end of the century the extinction of perhaps a million species in the Amazon basin could have entrained famines in which a billion human beings perished. by eliminating rivets. increasing income levels and new demand from the It said water and land biofuels industry.7 tonnes per hectare in 2000. lack of water would hamper agriculture. For the past half century. deserts will continue their seemingly inexorable expansion.14 81 . The report. 96 (David. The Idea of Biodiversity: Philosophies of Paradise. soil erosion. the world has been able to increase output thanks to rising productivity boosted by genetic advances. It has value and of itself.until now fuelled by rising demand from emerging countries and the biofuels industry . Barring a nuclear conflict. said the boom . corn prices hit a 12-year high this year and rice prices have doubled in the past year to levels not seen since the mid-1990s. would be key factors shaping food production.1 tonnes per hectare in 1950 to 2. Richard Warburton. but that will make little difference. 22nd. would be forced to provide more water to their rapidly growing urban populations rather than to their farmers. It might. China and India. fertilisers and pesticides. Air pollution will increase.” 13 Elsewhere Ehrlich uses different particulars with no less drama: What then will happen if the current decimation of organic diversity continues? Crop yields will be more difficult to maintain in the face of climatic change. poultry. the world's two most populated countries. p 200-201) So biodiversity keeps the world running.would be exacerbated by supply constraints. the report for the first time examines the limitations faced by farm production in the medium term. But he warned that even if it was cyclical. such as the wider use of irrigation. "Balancing environmental sustainability against the needs of an ever larger and increasingly hungry population may well prove to be the biggest challenge of the 21st century. Wheat and soyabean prices have surged to records. Erwin. and ever more serious assaults by pests. In addition to land scarcity. "Sustainability will ultimately be defined by food production per area of land and quantity of water used. which could extinguish civilization.ft. such as cereal seeds resistant to drought. mortality from respiratory and epidemic disease. . Page 24 28E 40L 26U www. teaches environmental humanities @ the Institute for Earth Systems Science and Policy @ Cal State. as these are the obviously limiting factors. l/n accessed 8/1) Scarcity of water and arable land means that the boom in food prices could last longer than most expect. could only be increased at the cost of "massive destruction of forest and habitats and extreme pressure on biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacity". natural disasters. and Wilson oblige us to think about the value of biodiversity for our own lives. published today by the UK-based consultants Bidwells Agribusiness. and human beings remain heavily dependent on food. head of Agribusiness at Bidwells. Instead of focusing on the current factors behind rising food prices. the famines could lead to a thermonuclear war. decline of pollinators. Humanity will bring upon itself consequences depressingly similar to those expected from a nuclear winter. But Mr Warburton said that "yields gains have already plateaued" after more than doubling from 1. such as growing populations." the report said. . eggs and dairy products prices have also increased sharply. Conversion of productive land to wasteland will accelerate." Arable land.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Biodiversity Rising food prices will force arable land increases which will come at the cost of biodiversity Blas 08 (Javier. in particular. Sugar price surge. together with slow improvement in agronomics. said it was impossible to know yet whether the agricultural market was facing a structural or a cyclical Biodiversity loss ends in an absolute extinction. Jan. Water was also an issue in highly productive areas such as California and southern Spain. that constraints on (farm) production are tightening. Meat. and better agronomics. As ecosystem services falter. scarcity." the report said. we play Russian roulette with global ecology and human futures: “It is likely that destruction of the rich complex of species in the Amazon basin could trigger rapid changes in global climate patterns. Takacs. a new study has warned. Raven. miss out on a cure for cancer. and especially famine will lower life expectancies to the point where cancer (largely a disease of the elderly) will be unimportant. Agriculture remains heavily dependent on stable climate. as well as for us. loss of dependable water supplies.

Is actual or threatened physical starvation the next part of the scenario? And where are the governmental authorities whose job it is to protect the public welfare both at the national and international levels? These authorities long ago allowed a situation to develop.php?context=va&aid=8778) First of all.” Food production cannot safely be left in the hands of agribusiness and international finance capitalism any longer.globalresearch. Treasury Department. In other words. Of course public spirited action like this is itself a declining commodity in a world afflicted with the kind of market fundamentalism and rampant privatization that has been the rage since the 1980s Reagan Revolution. NASA.S. Or maybe there will be a responsible public authority around that will prohibit price gouging or else subsidize the purchaser. an innovation that took place on Bill Clinton’s watch. retail space. Back in the 1960s people who were starting to understand these things began a modest “back to the land” movement. control their natural resources.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Genocide Those benefiting from high food prices are profiting from current and eventual genocide from mass starvation. 82 . And is all this part of a long-term strategy by international Department of Justice says have penetrated world materials markets. federal government analyst. and enslave the rest who fear a similar fate? Already millions of people are losing their homes to housing inflation and foreclosure. and decisions by government and businesses to “buy local. It is now April. and other assets required to conduct the production/consumption cycle. But could you do it? Could you buy or lease land and pay taxes on it after the galloping inflation of the real estate bubble? Could you get bank loans for equipment and operating expenses under today’s constrained credit conditions? Could you afford fuel for your equipment when petroleum costs over $115 a barrel? Is water readily available from developed supplies and is electricity available at regulated prices? Could you purchase anything other than genetically- modified seed? Would local supermarkets buy your produce when your prices are undercut by massive corporate distributorships importing food from abroad? Does the system even exist in your home town for marketing of local farm products? And does anyone in power even care? Well. or b) planned. Second. let’s get rid of the idea that we are seeing “impersonal market forces” at work. Civil Service Commission. http://www. Already food has run out in some parts of the world. If a seller has an article in demand it’s a matter of choice whether he charges a premium when he offers it for sale. Except this time we need to do it right by demanding government policies that support it. Indeed.S. price supports. and the owners or mortgagees of the land. all three are part of a government that has gone so far as to exclude much of the rising cost of food from measurements of inflation. This includes not only the international financiers who provide capitalization. affordable utilities. Cook 08 (Richard.S. honest soul. such as food. Cook is a former U. where we obviously have a conspiracy among the contributing parties. including in developed nations like the U. In a few months winter will come. If he’s a decent. April 24. This means low-cost credit. the Food and Drug What will happen then? Are you certain food will be on your table? And suppose you wanted to make a contribution to your own well-being and to that of your family and community by going into farming. “Supply and demand” is not a “law”—it’s a policy. those who are charging monopoly prices for the commodities in demand. where people in localities no longer have the simple ability to feed themselves. . the various middlemen who bring the products to market after they leave the farm. as often happens in credit markets. let’s ask the question which any competent investigator should pose when starting out on the trail of a possible crime: “Who benefits?” Indeed we may be speaking of a crime on the scale of genocide if the events in question are a) avoidable. Today it is time to start one again. We always assume that whatever we need will be there so long as we have money in our bank account or the ability to charge on a credit card and pay later. including the leveraging of trading in commodity futures up to the 97 percent level. in which case the crime is one of negligent homicide. at least in the Northern Hemisphere. “We the People” should care. whether they do or not. it’s the financial elite of the world who have gained complete control of the most basic necessity of life. nor Barack Obama—has addressed the food pricing issue. favorable tax policies.S.S. even in emergencies. Those who benefit are obviously the ones who finance agricultural operations. And not one of the candidates remaining in the U. “Crisis in Food Prices Threatens Worldwide Starvation: Is it Genocide?” Richard C. maybe he won’t necessarily charge all the market will bear. Such assumptions are losing their validity. finance to starve much of the world’s population in order to seize their land. Hillary Clinton. presidential election—John McCain. In most parts of North America you can look around and see plenty of underutilized land. whose career included service with the U.S. but even organized crime groups which the U. and the U. the Carter White House. One of the worst aspects of the consumer society is the separation between the individual and the products of the earth we utilize. particularly if the item is a necessity of life.

And what is that Policy? In a word: GENOCIDE. which might be fine for you or I. Robert Zoellick. As the saying The simple fact is that the world is not “too full. as well as financial hedging. On the 18th June. a situation they believe will not change in the coming year. the little stinging insects that we depend upon to pollenate our food supply. And if Biofoolery is not enough. and people like him. guarantee control of the food supply chain. or as a lack of capability to produce. we are already there. “no shit. The agreement includes 144 ConAgra facilities. Culturally. is that the risk of cross-pollenation makes GM unpopular. Bees. commodity futures derivatives speculation. unavailability. for us to be able to solve the [long-term] problem. or that certain GM crop manufacturers also happen to belong to a cartel of pharmasutical/chemical/insecticide manufacturers and have had their products banned because they are harmful to bees? 83 . President of the World Bank. and “risk management services” — i. The population of this planet is staring a dark age in the face. stating that the rise in food prices would be likely to nullify the fight against poverty. For those unaware. located primarily in North America. George Soros. feed ingredients. Is it really a coincidence that this happens within a few years of the development of GM crops. Aspects. they need to do something about that. Prices must go up first so as to encourage people to consume less.e. The problem for the corporations. The policy has been stated many times: reduce the population of the planet from its present levels. as well as agriculture.aspects.” So Georgie wants us to consume less. Politicians and scientists have all been pushing the insanity that biofuels are the answer to the non-existent Global Warming problem. That form of profiteering only caused economic hardship. the biofuels insanity is a strategy that even the greenies don’t want. GM is being pushed harder than ever. Goergie told a Budapest newspaper: “Rather than expecting energy prices to go down somehow. as the result of Policy. result of population fuelled demand. So until the use of GM is universally accpepted. and more importantly. thus making fermentation easier. The ConAgra operations provide “procurement and marketing services” for ethanol and bio-diesel producers. the new company provides physical distribution and merchandising of grains. the World Bank issued statements warning of the impoverishment of entire regions of the world as the result of the food crisis. At April’s G7 meeting of finance ministers in Washington. and as Today’s hikes in oil and food prices are not the poverty forces the people of large parts of the planet into having large families. Georgie has moved on from currency speculation. But in terms of human suffering. Today. he is aiming fairly and squarely at human death. Just another of the “conincidences” in the world. Georgie’s not alone of course. are dying out in unprecedented numbers. with scientists at Michigan State University messing with the genetic makeup of corn to develop a strain that can break down its own cellulose. fertilizer. energy. supply chain infrastructure. and other commodity trading activities. at least in the short term. and energy products. as our basic economic infrastructure crumbles round our ears. is Colony Collapse Syndrome. and biofuel production more efficient. Renamed Gavilon.” It might feel like it is. because they know of the activities of speculative kingpin. the period we are entering now will put all historical genocides in the shade. GM crops are designed to reduce diversity of plant species through cross-pollenation. It doesn’t stop there. to be replaced with huge factory farms planting seeds only ever purchased from Monsanto adds to that effect.8 billion deal is estimated as the largest acquisition ever by a hedge fund.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Genocide Rising food prices nullify the fight against poverty and re-entrench an oligarchic principle of population correction through genocide. The decades long destruction globally of small farming. issued a statement at the same meeting. We even have these two insanities of GM and biofoolery getting it together. The $2. sometimes. It goes without saying that Georgie is right in there pushing biofuels. This aquisition was made by a private investment fund managed by Soros Fund Management LLC. we should accept that it must go further up first. Another string to the bow. who probably don’t struggle too much for our three meals a day. Soros was behind the near collapse of the British Pound in 1992. 7-29-08 (http://news. They are purely artificial. acting as part of a consortium with New York hedge fund Ospraie Management and New York asset manager General Atlantic. Sherlock!” These guys can make their statements with confidence.. What happens if you are one of the several billions who only eat once per day? Do they need encouragement to consume less? Georgie’s mechanism for pushing prices up is typified by his recent aquisition of all the commodities trading and merchandising business of the giant multi-national ConAgra Foods.

Widespread chronic hunger causes widespread instability and debilitating poverty and decreases all of our safety. security was largely a concern arising out of the conflict among states. the populations of the poorest countries and regions of the world still grow at an alarming pace. Int'l L. and resist disease. millions are women average six or more births in a lifetime. Silvio Berlusconi. 49 The food security issues of this region are a global concern. food security and poverty . destabilizes governments. Prime Minister of Italy. 84 . wrote that today's threats to security ." Human security is a value which can be broadly 50 defined as both the "freedom from fear" and the "freedom from want. introducing the national security element to food security concerns." 51 Until recently. 54 For example. think clearly. Fall. i." The enormous number of chronically 44 hungry people conjures up a critical question: how can we feed these people? While the rate of population growth has been leveling off in the developed. and reaches across international boundaries. Food Security Emergencies And The Power Of Eminent Domain: A Domestic Legal Tool To Treat A Global Problem. making it the most poverty- stricken region in the world today. 58 Widespread instability is an unmistakable characteristic of life in sub-Saharan Africa. 59 Food insecurity. 55 Likewise.terrorism. state security. therefore. It also has devastating consequences for society: it drains economies. One tragedy endlessly feeds upon and exacerbates the other because a person needs money to buy food. 45 Population statisticians refer to this phenomenon as population momentum." 56 Food Yet it is a mistake to think of global security only in military terms. [*285] Chronic hunger and poverty are the rock-and-a-hard-place in 48 between which the people of sub-Saharan Africa find themselves today. 53 In an editorial in the Economist. in December [*286] 2004. keeping our food supply secure plays a direct role in achieving freedom from fear. which can be summed up in the phrase "military preparedness. 47 undernourished and millions more live on a dollar a day. Candidate 2006. because it is so easy to do.are all interrelated so that no one country can tackle them alone. 57 security deserves its place in any long-term calculation regarding global security. during his resignation announcement.e.are chronically hungry. more than 842 million people . Food insecurity in the unstable regions of the world must be taken on now lest we find ourselves facing some far worse danger in the days to come. stated: "For the life of me. Lexis) Today.nearly three times the population of the United States . causes global insecurity because widespread instability in places like sub-Saharan Africa threatens all of our safety. the former Secretary of the Health and Human Services Department. hunger is one of the greatest problems the international community is facing. 05 (Robert H. J.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food Security . and Chairperson of the 2002 World Food Summit in Rome said. 33 Syracuse J. but she (or he) cannot earn money when she is chronically hungry.D. I cannot understand why the terrorists have not attacked our food supply. it is recognized that the achievement of freedom from want is as important a goal as the achievement of freedom from fear and countries must arm themselves against such fear by addressing food insecurity. all but two are in Africa. 43 "Chronic hunger is a profound. debilitating human experience that affects the ability of individuals to work productively. Tommy Thompson. & Com. Kofi Annan. "Together with terrorism. wealthy countries of the world. 277.. Secretary General of the United Nations. 46 Of the seventeen countries whose In sub-Saharan Africa. for example from the increased threat from global terrorism." 52 Today.Generic Foods security outweighs all other impacts – it makes every impact inevitable Trudell. The State Department has been studying the possibilities of food-borne bioterrorism.

ADI 08
Food Prices toolkit

Food Insecurity: War

Food insecurity risks global wars
Messer Professor of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University 01 (Ellen Messer, Marc J. Cohen, Special
Assistant to the Director General at the International Food Policy Research Institute & Thomas Marchione,
Nutrition Advisor at the Bureau for Humanitarian Response, U.S. Agency for International Development ,

Econometric studies provide additional empirical evidence of a link between food
insecurity and violent conflict. These studies find a strong relationship between
indicators of deprivation (such as low per capita income, economic stagnation and decline, high
income inequality, and slow growth in food production per capita) and violent civil strife (Nafziger &
Auvinen, 1997; Collier & Hoeffler, 1998). Mathematical models developed for a U.S. government study identified high infant mortality
—the variable that most efficiently reflects a country's overall quality of material life—as the single most efficient variable for
explaining conflicts between 1955 and 1994. Along with trade openness and regime type, infant mortality was one of three variables
best correlated with the historical cases studied. It often interacts with lack of trade openness and repressive regimes to trigger state
political and institutional factors in interaction with
failure (Esty et al., 1995; 1998). In sum,
environmental factors (such as drought and deforestation) are key indicators of potential
conflict in Africa: well-being is affected not just by natural disasters, but also by how effectively a regime responds to them.
Ineffective responses include inappropriate policies, such as those used by some Sahelian countries in the 1960s and 1970s: they
both neglected agriculture and subjected it to disproportionate taxation relative to the allocation of public expenditure received.
These policies greatly intensified the impact of the severe 1972-75 drought in the region (Christensen et al., 1981). Other ineffective
responses include unwillingness to respond to disaster, as in Ethiopia in 1974 or Rwanda in 1993 (J. Clay et al., 1988; Uvin, 1996b),
and deliberate use of food and hunger as weapons, as in the Horn of Africa in the 1980s and 1990s (Messer, Cohen, & D'Costa, 1998).
These examples demonstrate that famine is a result of political choices as well as capabilities (Drèze & Sen, 1989). Ethnic and
There is a high correlation between a country's involvement in
Political Rivalries, Hunger, and Conflict
conflict and its classification by FAO as a “low-income food deficit” country. Such
countries have high proportions of food-insecure households. And, as already noted, conflict is also
highly correlated with high rates of child mortality (see Figure 2), which is a common index for food insecurity. Nevertheless, a
number of analysts have challenged the notion that food insecurity is a causal factor in conflict. Paarlberg, for instance, argues that
environmental scarcities such as land shortage, land degradation, and rapid population growth—what he refers to as “eco-Malthusian
emiseration”—are not generally a factor in African conflicts. Rather, Paarlberg notes, the level of conflict in Africa has been relatively
stable since the end of the colonial era. In his view, “[a] far more convincing explanation for violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa
starts with the serious geographical mismatch, long noticed on the continent, between post-colonial national boundaries and ethnic
boundaries.” (Paarlberg, 1999, page 1). More generally, Gleditsch (1998) has pointed out that most conflicts can be sufficiently
explained as a result of political, economic, and cultural factors, without reference to environmental scarcities. In fact, neither
viewpoint precludes a food-security connection. Even Homer-Dixon (1999), a leading figure in the environmental security field,
concedes that environmental scarcity alone does not inevitably result in conflict. Instead, he stresses that
constraints can have a profound influence on the social factors that eventually lead to
conflict—as when elites monopolize control over scarce resources (such as water, cropland, or
forests) and non-elites perceive themselves as unfairly deprived. As an example of how this
works in practice, Uvin (1996b) argues persuasively that environmental factors in general—and food
insecurity in particular—critically contributed to triggering the 1994 genocide in Rwanda.
Per capita food production and availability had declined dramatically in Rwanda over the preceding
decade. The collapse of the world price of coffee in 1985 greatly reduced local and national government
revenues and sapped rural households' purchasing power, even as urban job opportunities grew scarce
and food prices rose. Deteriorating living conditions made many Rwandans into a ready
audience for government appeals to ethnic hatred.


ADI 08
Food Prices toolkit

Food Insecurity: War

Lack of food security causes social collapse within a country – this means your heg da is inevitable
Taylor and Cayford, 03 (Michael R, Jerry, American Patent Policy,
Biotechnology, and African Agriculture: The Case for Policy Change, RFF Report, November 2003, pg 7-8,

The countries of sub-Saharan Africa face daunting social, economic, and health challenges. Achieving basic food security is the
central one for many countries and individuals in that region. If basic nutritional needs are not being met, the consequences are seen, certainly, in
individual suffering, but also in the failure of societies to thrive socially and economically. Food security, economic development, and
poverty reduction are thoroughly intertwined. So too are the interests of the United States and developing countries in
Africa and elsewhere. In the post-September 11 environment, U.S. leaders increasingly recognize that the lack of food security
outside the United States is related to our quest for physical security inside the United States.

Malnutrition causes considerably more deaths than war
Charles Ellwood, University of Missouri. “Sociology and Modern Social Problems” 2003…
/chapter9.html 2003

As already implied, then, economic depression exercises a very considerable influence upon death rate, particularly when economic
depression causes very high prices for the necessities of life and even widespread scarcity of food. This cause produces far more deaths
in modern nations than war. The doubling of the price of bread in any civilized country would be a far greater calamity than a great war. While modern civilized
peoples fear famine but little, there are many classes in the great industrial nations that live upon such a narrow margin of existence
that the slightest increase in the cost of the necessities of life means practically the same as a famine to these classes. Statistics, therefore,
of all modern countries, and particularly of all great cities, show an enormous increase in sickness and death among the poorer classes in times
of economic depression.


ADI 08
Food Prices toolkit

Food Insecurity: Biodiversity Impact

Food insecurity results in the destruction on biodiversity
Trudell, J.D. Candidate 2006, 05 (Robert H., Fall, Food Security Emergencies And The Power Of Eminent
Domain: A Domestic Legal Tool To Treat A Global Problem, 33 Syracuse J. Int'l L. & Com. 277, Lexis)

In 1994, the United Nations Development Program, an organization dedicated to sustainable development in the developing world,
identified seven main categories of threats to human security: economic, health, environmental, personal, community, political, and
food security. 71
food security is fundamental to each of the other listed threats because a
population that cannot feed itself will not be able to thrive, will be increasingly
unhealthy, and will destroy the environment of the land it depends upon in its desperate
pursuit of food. [*288] The lack of food security in sub-Saharan Africa makes it one of the least stable regions of the world.
Such instability has a negative effect on global security, especially in the poorer countries of the world, which suffer from major
One cause of this instability can be seen in the connection of food insecurity with the
violent conflicts. 73

degrading sub-Saharan environment. In the search for sustainable agriculture, the

pressures of a growing population have resulted in a reduction of cropland. In Africa, 75

forests are cut down to make grazing pastures, then grazing pastures erode away and
become deserts or areas of land incapable of producing any sustainable harvest because the soil has no more nutrients. 76

One commentator, writing about sub-Saharan Africa, noted: "the relationship that exists between human security and environmental
degradation is best illustrated in the agricultural sector."Many of the farmers in this region still use the

"slash-and-burn" method of subsistence farming. The forests of sub-Saharan Africa are cut down for

agriculture because, as will be further discussed below, the African soil quickly loses its ability to sustain
plant life so more and more land is needed to grow the same amount of food. 79


Food insecurity in the unstable regions of the world must be taken on now lest we find ourselves facing some far worse danger in the days to come. for example from the increased threat from global terrorism. it is recognized that the achievement of freedom from want is as important a goal as the achievement of freedom from fear and countries must arm themselves against such fear by addressing food insecurity. Kofi Annan. J." 52 Today. 53 In an today's threats to security - editorial in the Economist.e. Int'l L. i. Secretary General of the United Nations.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food Security: Terrorism Impact Food insecurity in sub-Sahara increases the risks of terrorism Trudell. 277. 58 Widespread instability is an unmistakable characteristic of life in sub-Saharan Africa. which can be summed up in the phrase "military preparedness.. because it is so easy to do. & Com. the former Secretary of the Health and Human Services Department. during his resignation announcement. Tommy Thompson. Widespread chronic hunger causes widespread instability and debilitating poverty and decreases all of our safety. The State Department has been studying the possibilities of food-borne bioterrorism. Fall. food security and poverty . 55 Likewise. stated: "For the life of me. therefore. 05 (Robert H." 56 Yet it is a mistake to think of global security only in military terms. Lexis) Human security is a value which can be broadly defined as both the "freedom from fear" and the "freedom from want.D. Food Security Emergencies And The Power Of Eminent Domain: A Domestic Legal Tool To Treat A Global Problem.are all interrelated so that no one country can tackle them alone. wrote that terrorism. 54 For example. security was largely a concern arising out of the conflict among states. 59 Food insecurity. in December [*286] 2004. causes global insecurity because widespread instability in places like sub-Saharan Africa threatens all of our safety. state security. 88 . 57 Food security deserves its place in any long-term calculation regarding global security. 33 Syracuse J. introducing the national security element to food security concerns. keeping our food supply secure plays a direct role in achieving freedom from fear. I cannot understand why the terrorists have not attacked our food supply. Candidate 2006." 51 Until recently.

homeless segments of Rwandan society. those living in poverty. but certainly food insecurity played its deadly part in the tragedy." 99 With hindsight. Andre and Platteau's study showed that between 1988 and 1993 there was widespread unequal land distribution in Rwanda leading to a steep rise in the numbers of people in the "vulnerable sections of the population. 89 . J. 96 The "vicious cycle of poverty" reached across generations where the landless were led to despair and destroyed the traditional system of marriages. Lexis) Among other findings. The social system in Rwanda began to breakdown.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit Food Insecurity: Genocide Impact Food insecurity drives genocides Trudell. and nearly one million people were slaughtered. 95 These segments of the population were too numerous to simply become invisible. 277. largely due to long-held ethnic animus. tensions had developed to such an extent that the social fabric was at risk of falling asunder. 33 Syracuse J.D. 98 The Andre and Platteau study began in 1988. & Com.. we know this risk was realized. Fall. Int'l L." that is. 05 (Robert H. and even then. Food Security Emergencies And The Power Of Eminent Domain: A Domestic Legal Tool To Treat A Global Problem. "due to extreme scarcity of land and to the harsh realities of struggle for bare survival. Candidate 2006. 97 Rwandan courts and other methods of adjudicating land conflicts could not cope with the sheer numbers of disaffected people.

ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit **High Prices Good** 90 .

when demand exceeds supply. the World Bank’s flash estimate. to be found among the 1. Consider India. “Rising Food Prices – An Upside?”. With rising demand and constrained supply the iron law of economics permits no other response. Homi Kharas. July 29. 91 . John Deere. As a further complication. the impact also depends on what happens to labour. Productivity is on the rise. While most US shares have taken a beating. the ADB simulations suggest that there would be about the same number of winners and losers. these are the same households which have seen steady growth in wages in the last few years and have a middle-class living standard. This should come as no surprise. It is surely true that high food prices will cause hardship to many. In a market economy. China and Indonesia. Senior Fellow. a short while ago many analysts claimed that the greatest risk to China’s development was the growing gap between income levels in urban and rural areas.7 billion rural residents of India. which has a long history of subsidising agricultural input and output prices. Unfortunately. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just completed a study including the three countries with the largest rural populations in the world: India. with investments in equipment. In fact. The World Bank suggested that today’s higher food prices could push 100m more people into poverty. But for the majority of the world’s poor. Although some urban households will be made worse off. Beyond this.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Food Prices Solve Poverty Higher food prices help to spur investment in better production practices. The ADB report also analyses China in some detail. With today’s food prices. financially unsustainable. so many people would be affected. That cannot be denied and should not be forgotten. that problem has receded. Higher prices discourage consumption. The suffering of those in Cairo. The outcome in Indonesia appears to be more mixed. cereal production declined. High food prices are encouraging farmers to invest heavily in new equipment. China and Indonesia.aspx The good news is that higher food prices are exactly what is required to restore balance in the market. storage and land improvements. According to the ADB. but they also encourage more investment and enhance production. and environmentally destructive. Urban low-income and landless labourers would become poorer. http://www. It concludes that rural households in China should enjoy a significant reduction in the incidence of poverty as a result of high food prices. When prices fell steeply between 1997 and 2002. John Deere’s share price has doubled and has split two-for-one in the last two years. On average. cereal production has resumed its upward trend. Nor should we leap to the conclusion that food prices at today’s levels are here to stay. domestic agricultural prices in most countries do not mirror world prices but also reflect government tax and subsidy policies. The spectre of hunger is ugly. Some have argued that rising food prices hurt the poorest of the poor. which was based on an extrapolation from a nine-country study. 2008. That is the upside for humanity from today’s high food prices. prices rise. land and credit markets. The Brookings Institute. This pattern is being repeated across the world. Global Economy and Development. so average national poverty would remain unchanged. this has led to a system which is “unproductive.brookings. … (it) also accentuates inequality among rural Indian states.” Higher world food prices might be just the push needed by India. All these factors have to be taken into account to understand the impact of high food prices on household welfare. the dream of a “chicken in every pot” is becoming more attainable because world food supply is rising again. More profits for farmers does not mean a benefit to humanity. Now that prices have risen back to the levels of the mid-1990s. along with many other countries. More food is already being produced in response to higher prices: forecasts for cereals production in 2008 by the Food and Agriculture Organisation show a significant increase. There will be a massive reduction in the amount of poverty in a world with high food prices. Wolfensohn Center for Development. The World Bank estimates about poverty are wrong. to persuade it to reform its agricultural pricing system and provide new opportunities for its desperate farmers. has not stood up to Haiti and much of Africa is real. The reality is that the impact of high food prices depends on each household’s income and consumption patterns. Indonesia has large numbers in both these groups. while small and medium farmers would be better off. Anyone who doubts the link between food prices and agricultural investment should take a close look at the stock price of the world’s largest producer of agricultural equipment.

but economists say the commodities boom is probably helping more poor people than it hurts because developing countries are the primary source of raw materials. Developing Nations Provide Materials." said David Wyss. While high costs are a burden on millions of people in the developing world . developing countries Patrice Hill. "High commodity prices are a problem for the industrial countries . Chile.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Food Prices Solve Poverty High Food and Fuel prices good – benefit people of poor.washingtontimes. Venezuela. rice. where the money is fueling rapid growth. many of which are net exporters of commodities. 92 . Botswana. but a boon to the emerging economies. copper.the world's richer countries are paying the biggest price because they are dependent on developing nations for the raw materials they need to fuel their economies. Most Middle Eastern nations as well as countries such as Brazil. June 2. 2008 ([Hill is a reporter for the Washington Times] “High Prices Not All Bad.almost all of which are commodity importers. Argentina.primarily the urban poor not engaged in farming or mining . gold. Europe and Japan pay for fuel and other raw materials amounts to a massive transfer of income to the developing world. raising living standards and feeding the emergence of a middle class. d/l: http://www. Zambia and Congo are major beneficiaries of the sixfold increase in oil prices since 2002 as well as record high prices for corn. The hardship of high food and fuel prices for the world's most impoverished people has garnered much attention. diamonds and other basic goods the world needs for sustenance and growth. wheat.” Washington Times. chief economist at Standard & Poor's Corp. The hundreds of billions more dollars each year that consumers in the United States.

was "the fastest way" to cut off investment. Spence said he agreed with Manuel's view that "we have to avoid Balkanising the energy markets". At the opening session of the three-day conference. which were likely to moderate in the medium term as the supply side was encouraged. Spence.investment in technology to boost agricultural productivity created an enormous opportunity for Africa. said yesterday. this may appear to be the result of the passing impact of a commodity price boom. was also doubtful that developing countries would win the battle against American and European agricultural subsidies. High food prices provided an enormous opportunity for African investment in agricultural production as the continent was resource rich compared with any other continent. Michael Spence. said Spence. "But I am certain that those of us who have looked more closely at the development of Africa would have seen that there is evidence that the current opportunity to benefit from a commodity boom will not be frittered away as it was before. could translate into good news for the continent if governments "invested in productivity growth".” Donwald Pressly. 93 . where countries tried to lock up the sources of supply or to impose controls on exports or prices." Mbeki said.a major driver of rocketing food costs. But high prices of agricultural products lessened the destructive effect of these subsidies as emerging markets became more competitive as the products achieved higher prices. "For some. said high food prices. 2008.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Food Prices Good  African Food security Higher food prices encourage African governments to invest in agricultural production and leads to African economies’ lasting. “High Food Prices Open Investment Windows. The Star (South Africa) June 10." Some might expect African economies to slow down and run into difficulties at the end of this boom. He said any attempts to control prices would create a disincentive to investors "to create new technology". the World Bank chairman of the commission on growth. Attempting to control prices. President Thabo Mbeki said Africa had undergone "exciting growth" recently. Cape Town. “exciting growth. who spent 50 percent or more of their income on food and fuel costs . speaking at the annual bank conference on development economics. Spence was asked what finance minister Trevor Manuel could have meant by his remark that a multilateral response should be employed by developing countries to respond to the rising cost of fuel . Meanwhile.and they had a devastating effect on the poor. Spence.” lessening any destructive effects of subsidies. including South Africa. While nobody liked high food prices . whether in food or fuel. as many did after the boom of the 1960s and 1970s. a 2001 Nobel Prize winner. at least not by all countries.

since Africa's economic gains were at risk from high food and energy prices. and long-term food security. "This crisis provides the opportunity to build a coalition of responses across the African continent. The World Bank has asked developed nations to help African farmers take advantage of the high food prices through increased food production. This is to support immediate and long-term goals for growth in the continent's agriculture. The bank's president. Mr Zoellick told journalists that although African governments had increased their investment in Agriculture. The agencies asked leaders in developed nations. said while development partners had pledged additional financial assistance. enhances livelihoods. nutrition and ultimately. food security for Africa. "Africa's very impressive economic progress of the last eight years must not be derailed by high food prices. They asked governments to make it easier to buy food meant for humanitarian assistance by removing export controls and taxes. "This offers a vehicle for an agricultural renaissance that raises small-scale farmers' income. nutrition. and the World Food Programme executive director." Mr Zoellick said. He was speaking at joint press conference with Food and Agriculture Organisation representative for Africa. international organisations and the private sector to join hands under the leadership of African and regional organisations." said Mr Bage. few had met the 2003 commitment to spend at least 10 per cent of their annual budgets on agriculture. The four organisations asked the international community to complement increased financial assistance with real breakthroughs in trade negotiations. Africa can more than meet this challenge. 2008.” AllAfrica. Inc. the AU and the New Partnership for African Development. The Nation. "With good policies and sufficient assistance. Modibo Traoré. Africa News May 30.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Food Prices Good  African food security High food prices offer Africa the opportunity for an “agricultural renaissance” that will enhance Africans’ livelihoods. Ms Josette Sheeran. 94 . untapped agricultural potential. Mr Lennart Bage. Mr Robert Zoellick. This is to ensure that Africa's producers could gain access to lucrative markets. Others are development and infrastructure. Others were International Fund for Agricultural Development president. more needed to be done in agricultural research. "Efforts to meet the hunger Millenium Development Goal can succeed if we seize the opportunity of high food prices in a continent with vast. “World Bank Urges Continent to Take Advantage of High Food Prices.

Minister for Agriculture Brendan Smith described the export performance as an excellent result.6 billion accounting for 7 per cent of GDP. though. which has resulted in rising food prices. the bad summer last year meant that farmers were not able to benefit as much as they could have done from escalating prices and volumes were down slightly on other years.4 per cent. The biggest beneficiary has been the dairy industry which now accounts for 70 per cent of the EUR 400 million worth of exports to Asia last year. Dairy farmers received 34 cent a litre for their milk last year.9 per cent. Significant progress has been achieved in the face of stiff trading competition. FARM INCOMES rose by 12 percent last year buoyed by high food prices and better export markets especially in Asia. However. in particular. milk by 7. 95 . 8 per cent of employment and 10 per cent of exports. rising energy costs and the strengthening of the euro against the dollar and sterling. according to the Department of Agriculture’s annual review. IFA president Pádraig Walshe welcomed the rise in farm incomes and said dairy farmers. though. The figures mean that food prices have escalated this year and now stand at 14 per cent above May 2007. 2008.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Food Prices Good  increase farm econ. The biggest increases. were entitled to a boost in incomes after 10 years of losses in the sector. However. In total agricultural exports rose by an estimated 5 per cent last year to EUR 8. they have also led to a boom of Irish food exports to Asia which increased by a phenomenal 50 per cent last year. were in common foodstuffs with beef increasing by 5 per cent. There was also a small decrease in the income of poultry suppliers. Income levels for pig farmers decreased by 9. Escalating food prices globally this year have been partially blamed on demand in China and India especially for meat and dairy products. he also said that increases did not take into account that other sectors of the agriculture economy were struggling. below inflation of 4. Food prices in Ireland remain the second highest in the EU at 25 per cent more expensive than the European average. the boom in farm incomes did not translate into substantially higher food prices which only rose by 2. Mr Walshe said pig and poultry producers were squeezed between supermarkets and rising feed costs.8 per cent last year. with an increase of 12% in incomes. according to Department of Agriculture figures. for beef farmers is much better this year with an estimated increase of 20 percent in cattle prices because of a shortage of beef in the EU and a dramatic fall off in imports from Brazil because of health and safety issues. However. The outlook. saw cereal farmers incomes increase by nearly 70 percent last year. However. “Farm incomes increase buoyed by high food prices. a rise of 29 percent on the previous year. Bord Bia has now achieved its strategy of doubling food exports to Asia to EUR 400 million two years ahead of schedule.4 per cent and fresh vegetables by 7. High food prices buoyed the income of small cereal and dairy farmers elsewhere in the world. The booming dairy sector also benefited hugely from rising food prices.7 per cent and beef farmers were squeezed by falling demand and South American imports with a decrease in income levels of 1.7 per cent. The Irish Times July 1. The global shortage in commodities.” Ronan McGreevy.

orange juice and sugar. which at the turn of the decade was a debt-ridden ward of the International Monetary Fund. most notably in developing nations.the fastest rate in three years . Brazil's record commodity exports have bolstered its revenues and reserves to the point that it shed its external debts and became a net creditor to the world in January.4 percent in 2007 .a fitting symbol for the country's meteoric rise. allowing it to escape debt and stagnation and become an economic force Patrice Hill.washingtontimes. Brazil's economy expanded by 5. the Latin American giant whose exports of everything from beef to oranges have turned it into an economic force to contend with this Perhaps the most notable rising star among developing countries getting a lift from the commodities boom is Brazil. June 2. With a recent major discovery of oil off the coast of Rio de Janiero. prompting Wall Street ratings agencies to raise the nation's credit rating above junk status . The surge in food prices after years of stagnation has been especially kind to Brazil. "Going to the mall on Saturday afternoon is just as popular in Bangkok and Sao Paulo as it is in Boston and San Antonio. said Joseph P. chief market strategist at Bank of America Corp." he said. soybeans.” Washington Times. some analysts think Brazil may soon become a major exporter of oil as well. 2008 ([Hill is a reporter for the Washington Times] “High Prices Not All Bad. Quinlan. d/l: http://www. "The penchant to consume is gaining traction globally. Developing Nations Provide Materials. causing imports of all kinds to leap by 172 percent to $6 trillion in those nations between 2000 and 2007. The growing incomes and rising opportunities for people in Brazil and other commodity- rich countries have raised living standards and enabled consumers to purchase more from abroad." 96 .and its exports have tripled since 2003 amid booming global demand for steel.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit High Prices Good – Brazil High commodity prices have greatly benefitted Brazil above all other countries. iron-ore.

ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit **Other ** 97 .

Paradoxically. the food crisis did not begin with recent food riots. 2008. Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy. a thirty-year global trend in declining food prices still left 860 million of the world’s population hungry—largely because most of the world’s poor are small farmers who were plunged further into poverty by low prices for their crops. world food crisis with the root causes. Executive Director. but not completely disinterested. Though the agrofuels boom may have created the spark the ignited the food price inflation. 98 . Eric Holt-Giménez. “Pouring Fuel on the Food”) It is a mistake to confuse the immediate possible causes of the The World Bank’s agrofuels alarm is well-placed.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit HUNGER INEVITABLE BOTH LOW AND HIGH FOOD PRICES CONTRIBUTE TO FAMINE HOLT-GIMENEZ 08 (July 29.

S. This means that corn represents approximately 10. Those who make this linkage attribute high productivity and high production at the farm level to program payments. But no credible analyst has ever estimated that farm payments result in such a large supply expansion that their withdrawal would cause commodity prices to double. the largest increases should show up in food products in which currently subsidized raw ingredients (corn. it would take a doubling of commodity prices to increase consumer prices by 10 percent. The idea that U.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit AT Food Prices DA The link between subsidies and low food prices is a myth Bruce A. then a removal of farm program payments should lead to higher food prices.Suppose that the removal of farm programs caused the price of corn to increase by 5 percent. Babcock Iowa Ag Review Spring 2006 U. disposable income that is spent on food. farmers often justify farm program payments by linking the payments to the small share of U.S. For example. or soybeans) make up the largest share of total production costs. If corn prices were to rise by 10 percent with the removal of subsidies. pork chops that cost $3. If this story is true.S. That is.A reasonable formula for approximating how the price of a food item would change because of a change in the price of a raw ingredient is to multiply the percent change in the price of the raw ingredient by the share of the price of the food item that is represented by the cost of the raw ingredient. leading to lower food prices. And at this maximum share. 99 .00 per pound with farm subsidies would increase in price by less than two cents per pound. The cost of a market- ready hog represents 28 percent of the final retail price of pork.S.64 percent of the retail price of pork. commodities have a greater than 10 percent share of final retail value. then pork chops would cost only three cents per pound more than they currently do.It is difficult to come up with examples in which subsidized U. wheat. commodity policy is really a cheap food policy is a myth. Logically. retail prices for these products would go up by a smaller amount (in percentage terms) than the price of pork.53 percent. The availability of less-expensive raw ingredients then decreases production costs of food processors and manufacturers. corn represents perhaps 38 percent of the cost of producing a market-ready hog. The price of pork would then increase by about 0. Because corn represents a smaller share of the final value of beef and dairy products.

prices Bruce A.American consumers pay more than double the world price for sugar. Trade policies also drive up prices for peanuts. That amounts to an annual "food tax" per household of $146. the higher domestic food prices caused by U. The U. import controls. between 2000 and 2002 the average domestic price of nonfat dry milk was 23 percent higher than the world price. Lower Food Prices for American Families The foremost reason to curtail farm protectionism is to benefit American consumers. Rather. beef. sugar. and other sugar-containing products. supply and international commodity prices 100 . soft drinks. In 2006 Congress will begin to write a new farm bill to replace the protectionist and subsidy-laden 2002 legislation that is set to expire in 2007. processed foods would be substantially cheaper. and other commodities. The complicated nature of these decisions makes it quite difficult to determine if U. would apply downward pressure on the prices we pay for candy. These costs are compounded by escalating tariffs based on the amount of processing embodied in a product. International Trade Commission.9 cents per pound for beet sugar and 18 cents for cane sugar.9 billion a year for sugar due to import quotas alone. and other products. while the world spot price for raw cane sugar is currently about 10 cents per pound. Congress and the administration should seize the opportunity to do ourselves a big favor by eliminating farm subsidies and trade barriers. export subsidies. and cheese. the Bush administration will be negotiating with 147 other members of the World Trade Organization to conclude the Doha Round before the president's trade promotion authority expires in mid-2007. a change that would benefit all Americans in six important ways. orange juice. Preble February 2006 America's agricultural policies have remained fundamentally unchanged for nearly three-quarters of a century. 1.S. availability of crop insurance. and expected benefits from farm programs. Simple "rules of thumb" that use total payment levels as a guide or the belief that the programs work as a cheap food policy are inadequate measures of the impacts of farm payments on U. by extension. Babcock Iowa Ag Review Spring 2006 This discussion is not an attempt to minimize the impacts of U. Slivinski. bakery goods. By shielding the domestic market from global competition. According to the U. expected market prices. The burden of higher domestic food costs falls disproportionately on poor households. cotton.S. marketing orders. The number of variables that are taken into account when deciding how much acerage to plant make it impossible to say if government subsidies are affecting this decisions and. production costs. The competition and innovation that have changed the face of the planet have been effectively locked out of America's farm economy by politicians who fear farm voters more than the dispersed consumers who subsidize them. canned tuna.S. A 2000 study by the General Accounting Office estimated that Americans paid an extra $1. This consumer tax is paid over and above what we dole out to farmers through the federal budget. market prices for commodity inputs. Lifting sugar protection.S. it is meant to illustrate how complicated estimation of the impacts actually is. farm programs transferred $16. farm programs for crops other than cotton are vulnerable to a WTO case against them on the basis of price suppression.2 billion from American consumers to domestic agricultural producers in 2004. with higher prices at the grocery store negating some or all of the income support the government seeks to deliver via programs such as food stamps.American families also pay more for their milk. while restricting imports to maintain artificially high domestic prices. The time is ripe for unilaterally removing those distorting trade policies.S. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Farmers base their decisions about what and how much to plant on numerous factors. The federal sugar program guarantees domestic producers a take of 22.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit AT Food Price DA While direct payment subsidies lower food prices. other incentive structure mechanisms can act to keep prices artificially elevated Griswold. thanks to federal dairy price supports and trade barriers. peanuts. If American farm subsidies and trade barriers were significantly reduced. The role that these programs play in farmers' planting decisions varies across crops. Farm protections act as a regressive tax. government continues to subsidize the production of rice. cotton. If the government allowed lower. Meanwhile. for example. The federal government administers a byzantine system of domestic price supports. farm subsidies on farmers' acreage decisions. cheese 37 percent higher. including rotation considerations. and crop years. tobacco. government farm programs raise the cost of food and with it the overall cost of living.S. butter. regions. milk. millions of American households would enjoy higher real incomes. and domestic and international giveaway programs. and butter more than double.

• expanding urban populations due to displacement may affect market demands and may lead to intensified peri-urban production that competes with rural producers. Catherine Longley and Tom Slaymaker. DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPORT TO RURAL LIVELIHOODS. • changing household composition (due to death. abduction. labour and other inputs may be limited in places of refuge. for example: • insecurity may prevent access to farms and markets for the timely implementation of key tasks. displacement or migration) may reduce family labour. • the loss or depletion of financial assets may limit access to agricultural inputs. 101 .” July 2004.MULTIPLE WARRANTS CHRISTOPLOS ET AL 04 (Ian Christoplos.ADI 08 Spring Food Prices toolkit WAR TURNS CASE CONFLICT TURNS AGRICULTURE. • formal input delivery systems may cease to function. Overseas Development Institute Humanitarian Policy Group) Agricultural production is inevitably affected by conflict. • agricultural outputs may be forcibly extorted by warlords or local militia. • displacement may force farmers to abandon their farms and/or production output altogether. and • over-exploitation of land may have long-term negative consequences for the natural resource base. • changes in the local economy (either related to conflict or relief food supply) may render staple food production unprofitable (though other crops may become very profitable). • access to land. “THE CHANGING ROLES OF AGRICULTURAL REHABILITATION: LINKING RELIEF.