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SDI 2008 KMT

Tournament Updates

TOURNAMENT DISAD UPDATES...........................................................................................................................1
BUSH UNPOPULAR NOW........................................................................................................................................2
2AC INDIA DEAL FRONTLINE – AT: BUSH BAD................................................................................................3
1AR EXTS - INDIA DEAL NON-UNIQUE – NSG...................................................................................................4
2AC SPENDING DA FRONTLINE............................................................................................................................5
2AC SPENDING FRONTLINE...................................................................................................................................6
2AC SPENDING DA FRONTLINE............................................................................................................................7
SPENDING EXTS #1 – ECONOMY LOW NOW......................................................................................................8
SPENDING EXTS--#1 – ECONOMY LOW NOW...................................................................................................9
SPENDING EXTS - #2 – DEFICIT SPENDING NOW............................................................................................10
SPENDING EXTS - #2 – DEFICIT SPENDING NOW............................................................................................11
SPENDING EXTS - #3 – NO PAY-GO NOW...........................................................................................................12
2AC JAPAN COMPETITIVENES/SOFT POWER DA............................................................................................13
2AC SILVER DA FRONTLINE................................................................................................................................14
SILVER EXTS - #2 – ALT CAUSES TO DEMAND................................................................................................15


The latter mark is higher than Nixon's 70 percent disapproval rating in August 1974. Less than a quarter of California voters – 24 percent – said they approve of Bush's job performance. compared with 71 percent who said they disapprove." More Republicans approve of Bush than disapprove. But the poll found that 90 percent of Democrats and 83 percent of independent voters disapprove of Bush.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates BUSH UNPOPULAR NOW Bush’s disapproval ratings have reached the highest in the nation’s history SACRAMENTO BEE 07-19-2008 [parth] President Bush's disapproval rating in California has reached the highest mark for a president since the Field Poll began tracking White House numbers in 1961. a drop from 24 percent who said the same in May. "What's driving this particular poll down are the significantly lower ratings he's getting on the economy. Voter appraisal of Bush's handling of the Iraq war has remained steady at 28 percent approval. 2 . the same month he resigned from office after his role in the Watergate scandal was revealed. compared with 27 percent in May. by a 54 percent to 38 percent margin. I would consider those to have bottomed out." said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. according to its latest survey released Friday. "His Iraq ratings seem to have stabilized. Only 18 percent of voters said they approve of Bush's handling of the economy.

and securing approval from the 45 nations that form the Nuclear Suppliers Group.K. But the IAEA Board of Governors is not expected to take up the matter until August. The Communists have since allied themselves with the BJP and other opposition parties to try to bring down the Government over the issue.But the legislation passed in 2006 -. requires that Congress be in 30 days of continuous session to consider it. "This deal makes us a subservient partner. This week.completing an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. July 22.timesonline.html. just short of the simple majority it needs in the 543-seat parliament. less than 40 days are left in the session before Congress adjourns on Sept. Democrats won concessions in the compromise. opponents say it will give the United States too much control over India's foreign policy and military nuclear programme.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates 2AC INDIA DEAL FRONTLINE – AT: BUSH BAD FIRST.S. 2008. (Singh) India's civil nuclear agreement with the United States may have cleared a key hurdle in New Delhi this week. L. AND. Congressional aides said that clock can begin to tick only once India clears two more hurdles -.the so-called Hyde Act -. spokeswoman for the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has struggled to keep his coalition government intact over the controversial deal to give New Delhi access to U. AND. so both sides are now courting a handful of However. The confidence vote was triggered when the Communist parties that gave the ruling coalition its parliamentary majority withdrew their support in protest over the nuclear deal. 3 . the BJP whereas the NSG may take several months to reach a consensus. but it appears unlikely to win final approval in the U. independents and small party members who remain undecided. Congress May Not Pass U. rather than scrapped.S. both [the IAEA and NSG actions] have to take place in the next couple of weeks" for the deal to be considered by Congress.ece (Singh) However.9 billion in grants. India parliament launches nuclear debate in vote that could break Government.S. Congress this year. nuclear technology for the first time since it conducted a nuclear test in 1974. "We are not against nuclear energy. 2008 Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday. But we would never like India to become party to an agreement which is unequal.washingtonpost. but political analysts say that the Government appears to have won the support of between 268 and 271 MPs. It makes India a junior partner. http://www. said Lynne Weil. with MPs from both sides defecting amid allegations that votes were being bought for as much as £3 million each." he said. the opposition is close behind with an estimated 268 votes. the frenzy of backroom dealing intensified. according to administration officials and congressional aides." Meanwhile. as Republicans long sought.-India Nuclear Pact A10. "At this point. THE LINK IS NON-UNIQUE – HOUSING BILL WAS A CONCESSION TO THE DEMOCRATS TULSA TODAY 07-26 Paulson's request for the emergency power to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac led to a bipartisan deal on the bill. Advani. We are not against a very close relationship with America. told parliament that he wanted the nuclear deal to be renegotiated. which also creates a regulator with tighter controls on the government-sponsored mortgage companies. 26. The numbers are still 4372268. including a permanent affordable housing program to be financed by the two companies' profits and the $3. Because of the long August recess.-India agreement. http://www. raising the possibility that India could begin nuclear trade with other countries even without the Bush administration's signature deal.that gave preliminary approval to the U. he secured an agreement with the Samajwadi Party to back the deal.S. giving him enough support to retain his majority even as the Communists bolted over fears that the pact would infringe on India's sovereignty. NON-UNIQUE – NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP AND IAEA Glenn Kessler July 01523_pf. which governs trade in reactors and uranium. NON-UNIQUE – INDIAN PARLIAMENT The Times.

com/world/asia/PrinterFriendly. Then again. the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and America's Congress. said that India would press ahead “very soon” with a controversial policy: a civil-nuclear co-operation agreement with America. Only. the deal is a dead- cert. it is unsurprising that so many Indians do assume it.This would give India access to nuclear fuel and technology. But with several other NSG members having expressed concerns. In a country with massive energy needs.economist. the deal is not yet done: it needs approving by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency.They may turn out to be right. despite its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. India's great rival. (Singh) IT CAME like monsoon rain. the prime minister.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates 1AR EXTS . Manmohan Singh. http://www. that would be momentous.cfm?storyid=11700198. after a head-aching spell of summer heat. still unknown. ending months of mixed messages and tiresome speculation. now that Mr Singh has plumped for it. Not that you would necessarily know this from Indian media coverage of the saga. On July 7th. the deal's safe passage cannot be assumed. A pronounced feature of their country's rapid emergence is the awesome self-confidence—and sometimes hubris—it inspires in Indian breasts. Winning their blessings before President George Bush's term expires next January will be tight. Most Indian commentators—including those within the ruling Congress party—appear to have concluded that. 4 . Mr Bush will certainly push hard for it. and pretensions to global-power status.INDIA DEAL NON-UNIQUE – NSG NO INDIA DEAL IN STATUS QUO – NO NSG APPROVAL BEFORE BUSH TERM ENDS THE ECONOMIST 07-09-2008 “Overconfident India” The Economist Newspaper. despite opposition from his government's parliamentary allies. and the attitude of China.

says the mountains of red ink have one cause -. indicating that an upturn in the business cycle is not yet in http://www. homeland security.1 in the previous period. when the burden is divided among working Americans. 7/25 [OneNewsNow.4 in the week to July 18 from 131. said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.was due to higher interest rates and jobless claims and to weaker housing.65 trillion when fiscal year 2008 ends September 30.reuters.5 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2009. woman and child in the country is nearly $30." he points out. But what do these deficit numbers mean for the average American? Shughart says the future tax liability for every man. "With the WLI level falling to its lowest reading in nearly five years. it is clear that a business cycle recovery is nowhere in massive increases in spending for education under the No Child Left Behind program. 7/25 [Reuters. and lots of spending on wars on terror.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates 2AC SPENDING DA FRONTLINE FIRST. managing director at ECRI said in an instant message interview. revised down from minus 6.onenewsnow. NON-UNIQUE – ECONOMY LOW NOW – NO UPSWING COMING Reuters. University of Mississippi economics professor William Shughart notes that America is "spending more than $250 billion a year just on interest on the national debt. The index's annualized growth rate slipped to a 10-week low at negative 6. downwardly revised from 131. he says. a New York-based independent forecasting group.4 percent. Nalepka] Washington's addiction to deficit spending will impose "huge direct costs" on future An economics professor says generations of Americans. The Economic Cycle Research Institute. “Economist: Federal gov't addicted to debt”.000.2. a senior fellow at the Independent Institute. Congressional analysts estimate the taxpayer cost of propping up the mortgage giants may be as high as $25" Shughart. a research group said on Friday. July 25.a move that will further increase the federal debt by $5 trillion over night. July 25.excessive spending.A gauge of future U.9 percent from minus 6." AND. 2003-. "Under the Bush administration over the last few years.5 percent." Achuthan said. “GLOBAL ECONOMY-US consumers less glum. UK growth sputters”. And that number more than doubles. the Iraqi War.aspx? And in a new op-ed for The Washington Times. "The way a good leading index works is that its level always turns up months before the end of the recession. Lakshman Achuthan. and $10. 2008. we've gotten the biggest expansion in entitlement spending since the New Deal with the Medicare Part D program. economic growth fell to its lowest level in nearly five years and its annualized growth rate was also down.0 in the week to October 24. The decline in the index --to its lowest since it hit 129. DEFICIT SPENDING NOW AND INEVITABLE OneNewsNow. http://www. Nalepka] NEW YORK (Reuters) . The economist also blasts the Bush administration for seeking to bail out Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae -. 2008. It is estimated that total federal debt will reach $9. 5 . and the war in Afghanistan.

this year's 4. they averaged $22 billion a year in the 1990s. 2) attaching new entitlement legislation to appropriations bills. the Democratic Congress has reduced PAYGO to nothing more than empty rhetoric. for example. If such legislative maneuvering was not hypocritical enough.cfm. 7/1 [Brian M. So Congress presumably can add another $50 billion to next year's spending and comply with paygo by promising to reduce spending by that amount in 2017. 6 . the Senate also bypassed its own rules against: 1) creating new entitlements that significantly increase long-term budget deficits. the Senate violated four of its own budget rules. The Democratic Congressional majority has repeatedly boasted of their Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) rules requiring new entitlement and tax bills to be fully offset. chairman of National Center for Policy Analysis.opinionjournal.[3] By voting to add hundreds of billions of dollars to current and future budget deficits. Chinikamwala It all sounds They recently waived PAYGO for the bloated farm bill and the tax rebates. In total. July 1. Hermann Fellow in Federal Budgetary Affairs in the Thomas A. former governor of Delaware. and are $100 billion a year now. 2008. Wall Street Journal. and employed blatant gimmicks to cover up PAYGO violations in last year's S-CHIP and higher education bills. “The Iraq War Bill Was the Wrong Place to Create a Permanent New Entitlement”. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation. and 3) declaring non-emergency expenditures as emergencies. DEMOCRATS VIOLATING PAY-GO NOW Riedl. EXCEPTIONS TO PAY-GO INEVITABLE du Pont. Yet the only reason to put this new veterans' entitlement into an "emergency bill" is because such bills are exempt from all budget rules and therefore require no offsets. "Emergency" expenditures are not covered by paygo either. http://www. Riedl is Grover M. Paygo requires setting spending amounts for the current fiscal year and five or 10 years from now. and health spending will continue to grow unabated. It does not cover spending increases in existing entitlement programs. 1/24/07. but paygo is riddled with deceptions. So. And the new House paygo rule contains the blockbuster of all loopholes: The House can pay for short-term spending increases by promising long-term spending cuts.7% Medicaid spending increase and Medicare's 14% (which includes Bush's senior citizens' drug program) spending increase will be]. this is not the first time the Democratic Congress disregarded its budget rules and increased the budget deficit. [http://www. AND.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates 2AC SPENDING FRONTLINE AND. Of course. very fiscally responsible. Heritage Foundation. Nalepka] It evaded PAYGO. a rule to be casually discarded whenever it is not convenient to the Democrats' spending agenda.heritage.

not easier. This is the key to the pay-go trick: Growth raises incomes. when you make more money Uncle Sam automatically takes more of it. and worse. open markets and restraint on government spending have spurred economic growth for a quarter 553962~_Pay_go__system_still_isn_t_the_way_to_go. That’s pretty shocking when you consider those programs. because under pay-go taxes go up and entitlements grow unchecked. and adjudicate disputes over credit transactions. to pursue those policies. That’s a tax increase. and the market price would depend on how ambitious the annual increase in the RPS would be. Even the president’s So we have nothing more than a fiscal Ponzi scheme. 2/8/07. making the RPS effectively self-enforcing. JD CANDIDATE.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates 2AC SPENDING DA FRONTLINE AND. Chinikamwala The problem with pay-go is that it’s Industry actors that fail to meet the standard would be subjected to steep fines that substantially outpace the fair market value of the energy Another advantage is that unlike direct government subsidies. the market value of credits will ultimately determine when the standard "self-sunsets. administer penalties for noncompliance. out of the fiscal equation altogether. a tax-raising device disguised as responsible budgeting. miraculously. Even then.482 funding is necessary. This is the politics of the status quo. Low tax rates. it is effective in both regulated and competitive wholesale energy markets. FORDHAM JOURNAL OF CORPORATE FINANCE AND LAW. spending-only version of pay-go leaves automatic spending programs. every power retailer (like a utility) would have to determine whether it would be more expensive to produce their own renewable energy or directly subsidize the production of it elsewhere. PAY-GO IS BAD – MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO RESTRAIN FEDERAL SPENDING Pieler. moving folks into higher tax brackets. the use of House rules to protect incumbents from tough and forward-looking decisions. Pay-go makes it tougher.488 AND. CASE SOLVES THE INEVITABLE IMPACT – CONTINUED RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS GUARANTEES PRICE SHOCKS AND INSTABILITY – IT IS TRY OR DIE WITH THE AFF – WE SOLVE THE TERMINAL IMPACT TO THE DA 7 . pay-go makes it tougher for Congress to grapple with the entitlement challenge with anything other than tax increases.480 In this way. which by law expire in a few years. but here a bit of truth-in-packaging is in order. of-return on their payroll taxes will likely be set aside.examiner. [http://www.484 The overseeing agency would merely be required to certify the annual ownership of the credits themselves. Pelosi pay-go makes it harder to cut taxes and more difficult to restrain federal spending. growth and low inflation. Worse. it could worsen the deficit worse by blocking tax relief."486 Once a credit becomes worthless. That’s the heart of the problem. The Examiner. all at the expense of the taxpayer.487 To ensure long-term growth of the renewable energy industry. pay-go might cut the deficit.col1/ ttate] Credits would not be allowed to be carried over from year to year. Somebody usually means everybody. and pay-go ignores it. any reforms aimed at stimulating private investment to improve beneficiaries’ rate- Since pay-go obstructs entitlement reform too. over a long enough period of time to set off the diminishing rate of return for the credits. by common consent. the deficit matters much less than policies aimed at jobs. no public credit. If we had a drive for spending cuts elsewhere. Social Security and Medicaid. The AWEA also notes that in an energy credit-based RPS scheme.485 The formula for setting fine rates would be set statutorily along with the RPS to avoid costly and time-consuming bureaucratic rule-making procedures. but not from legislation.html]. accelerate fast enough. “Blowing in the Wind”. The president wants to extend his job-creating tax cuts. all under the banner of fiscal restraint. but Pelosi pay-go treats that extension as a new tax cut that must be “paid for” (in tax increases). the RPS will have to start high enough. If Congress wants to return some of that tax increase to us. The taxpayer isn’t supposed to worry about the fine print of budgeting.483 Furthermore. pay-go says no: You have to “pay for” the most modest tax relief with tax hikes on somebody. 2007 [Corey. pose our biggest long-term fiscal problem. http://findarticles. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>RPS SPECIFIC BELOW AND. entitlements such as Medicare. NO LINK – LITTLE TO NO GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS NEEDED SHOOCK. the RPS will have accomplished its goal for at least the year. a serious threat to economic growth and the taxpayer’s peace-of-mind. Pay-go doesn’t touch spending bills. Anyone who pays income taxes figures out that.

511. as The Wall Street Journal notes. where stock prices lost much of their recent gains. This is not something we Richard Sparks.000 from to In a normal housing market." Bill Cheney. including the shares of Citigroup." "This is telling us any bottoming in the housing market will be very long and drawn out. housing is still very economist at John Hancock financial units. with the Dow Jones shedding 120. 7/24/08. More significantly.1% from a year ago to $215. the state of New York yesterday officially filed civil fraud charges against UBS over an alleged "multibillion-dollar consumer and securities]. those real-estate data were among the biggest blows to the markets yesterday.230). and the big European share indexes are all down. The National Association of Realtors said the pace of existing home sales fell by 2. So was an analyst report saying many of WaMu's unsecured creditors are quietly removing their funds from the bank.75 points or 1. guardian." said Richard Dekaser.S. Merrill Lynch and Washington Mutual -.a better gauge of underlying labour trends . this is usually 5 months. the National Association of Realtors reported a 2. The median national home price declined 6.500. and a 6. analyst at Schaeffer's investment research.49m homes. That seemed to be the prevailing line of thought yesterday in the U. [http://www. the four-week average of new claims .6% month-to-month decline in the annual rate of sales of existing homes in June. “Economy Ain't Good.04% to 11. US homes sales at 10-year low. signalling troubled times ahead for the US economy. including a sharp increase in weekly claims for unemployment insurance reported by the Labor Department. following the 2. so the banking sector's troubles aren't over. Especially hard hit were financial stocks. US stocks extended their losses following the poor housing news.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates SPENDING EXTS #1 – ECONOMY LOW NOW U.a sector besieged for much of this There was year. which will take a near record-high 11. said the faster prices fell. some bad economic news yesterday.1% tumble in the median home price. the Journal says. With the housing market so central to the months to clear at the current sales pace.S.html?mod=googlenews_wsj. 8 .86m units. as the Journal reports. the quicker sales would recover.000. and the more stable four-week moving average was up just 4. In another less-than-reassuring development for the financial sector. though this is a volatile economic indicator.S. Chinikamwala Sales of existing homes in the US plummeted by more than double the expected rate. "It will take a long time for inventories to return to normal. However. http://online. said: "This is more evidence that are going to snap out of quickly. Economists polled by Reuters were expecting a more modest fall in home resales to 4. economy on the decline now – increased unemployment and housing crisis. reflecting the continued beleaguered state of the American housing market.000 rise." becoming the latest government entity to take action on charges that investors were pushed into the auction-rate securities market without adequately being informed about the risks. The stock of homes for sale held steady at 4.4% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday. financial markets.63. figures showed today.wsj.6% last month to an annual rate of 4. a jump of 34. July 25. which partly reflected normal seasonal volatility. Markets Say 'Doh!'”. 2008.'s economic problems. and to a banking sector still reeling from the mortgage-market implosion. That's the level of jobless claims that dominated the bust era earlier this decade.000 the week before. economist at National City Corp. the economy is still in the dumps and maybe we haven't hit a bottom. a 10-year-low.000 (£108.500 to 382. Nalepka] Ah. Most Asian stock-market benchmarks traded sharply lower today. The Wall Street Journal 7/25 [Wall Street Journal. Government data showed a 34. US housing sector weak Balakrishnan. The bad housing data followed a jump in the number of US workers filing new claims for jobless benefits last week.rose to 382. but one that enjoyed a bump upwards this week following the announcement of financial results so full of pain many investors saw a possible bottom.

95 million. The National Association of Realtors reported sales of existing homes and apartments fell 2. NAR president Richard Gaylord said the association's recent surveys showed "nearly a quarter of potential home buyers are waiting on the]. The level is 15. The US real estate market is in its worst slump in decades after years of sizzling growth fueled by low interest rates and 9 .100 dollars in June. including a boom in lending to subprime borrowers with poor credit histories. AFP.5 percent lower than in June 2007. "However.49 million units. which is why home buyers should always have a long-term view to build wealth.8-month supply in May. timing the market can be very tricky. [http://afp.2 percent to 4. The slump has pushed the US economy to the brink of recession and triggered massive losses among banks and finance firms.1 percent from a year ago. an 11. and a sign that the real estate market is still struggling to find a bottom. down 6. industry data showed Thursday. Chinikamwala US home sales fell another 2.6 percent.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates SPENDING EXTS--#1 – ECONOMY LOW NOW Real estate market leading causing recession AFP." in the face of declining prices.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace. US home sales slip another 2. up from a 10. 7/24/08." The inventory of unsold homes at the end of June rose 0. The median existing-home price for all housing types was 215. The report was also weaker than the average Wall Street estimate of a pace of 4.86 million. which have been forced to tighten lending.6 percent in June as inventories rose and prices fell with buyers still hesitant in the face of a horrific market slump.

052. which would be authorized to invest billions of dollars in troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.372. the total deficit for fiscal 2008 (ending this September 30) is expected to top $410 billion .7 billion.the national press says the budget deficit is small!" Right -.973. First.200. the government's total debt stood at $257 billion. It had a surplus of $4 billion in 1947 (the equivalent of about $38. here is the yearly total of total US government debt outstanding at the end of each federal fiscal year.506.807. after the costly war and America's huge investment in the rebuilding of Europe and Japan.653.because we're balancing the books of the federal government. ending the year at $9. 10 .50 09/30/2004 $7.48 09/30/2006 $8.597. Let's review. This needs to be changed. heading upwards to an estimated $10. http://www. Nalepka] For the past five years.062.with another $407 billion in red ink forecast for fiscal 2009.3 billion in current dollars) and modest surpluses in 1948.007.743.that is. That indicates the budget has never even come close to being balanced over the last 7 years -. Government spending now . Such irresponsibility is a relatively recent phenomenon. it will have doubled again by the end of the current fiscal year. July It will also give Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a new.64 trillion in 1994. the $175. It hit $4. 7/24 [Huffington Post. July 24.8 trillion. which ended last September 30.412. In February of this year. 1960 and 1969.209. That might send the wrong message to the markets about the US government's intentions.html.S. The mountains of red ink have just one cause: Washington's failure to live within its means. Since the end of fiscal year 2002.932.886. tougher regulator. “Spending like a drunken sailor”.new housing bill recently passed. the federal government has added at least $500 billion dollars of net new debt per year every year.86 Why are these figures important? Because they indicate there is a systemic problem with the US government's budgeting system.723.379. “Let's Add More Debt To the National Total”. In many of the post-war years the government actually operated in the black. Huffington Post. if the estimates Total federal debt doubled from 1975 to 1982. Total federal debt in 1940 .674.330. we don't have enough debt.7 billion. ' 7/19 [Hattiesburgamerican. As a result of the bill.696. when it broke the $1 trillion barrier. Anyone who is reporting the federal government's books are balanced should resign from the financial press right now because they have no idea what they are talking 2008. http://www.despite rampant claims to the contrary. And we certainly wouldn't want to do anything that remotely resembles fiscal responsibility. We almost take fiscal irresponsibility for granted.965. '57.709. 46 percent higher than the previous single month high (recorded in February 2007). all of the government's accumulated deficits from the time of the founding until just before World War II . This has resulted in some of the biggest federal budget deficits in history. Hattiesburgamerican.23 09/30/2005 $7.5 trillion by the end of the next fiscal year. 09/30/2007 $9.262. Congress will raise the national debt ceiling to $10. as well as insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages. And of government accountants are accurate. both within striking distance of 2004's record annual deficit of $412.16 09/30/2001 $5.899.that's why we're borrowing all that money -. ending the year at $1. 2008.661. '51. shall we? After all.6 trillion from $9.231. Congress and the White House have been on a spending binge that would embarrass a sailor on shore leave.hattiesburgamerican. Nalepka] From a story talking about the new housing bill: From the WSJ: The package could also come at a significant cost to the U. and nearly $14 billion more than the deficit for all of fiscal year 2007.14 trillion. "But Bonddad -. gradually edging up to $542 billion in 1975. Let's just add more debt to the total.#2 – DEFICIT SPENDING NOW High government spending now – deficit is doubling.178. '49.06 09/30/2000 $5. With the economy in the doldrums and the federal budget at an all-time high.62 09/30/2002 $6.235.dll/article?AID=/20080719/OPINION01/807190322.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates SPENDING EXTS . government.6 billion deficit was a single-month just $50.65 trillion.215. In 1947.32 09/30/2003 $6. It took about 18 years for that figure to double.

[4] That does not include the extra spending that could result from 64 reserve funds that allow Congress to increase spending further as long as they raise taxes accordingly. 11 .[5] Yet.heritage. Over the next decade. Discretionary spending has already expanded by 45 percent (after inflation) since 2001. Congress would provide an additional 8 percent increase. Entitlement spending increases--which are subject to This year would represent the second consecutive 8 percent hike in discretionary spending. Congress's budget would boost FY entitlement tsunami.000 per household annually. above this year's level. even non-defense programs have increased by 28 percent under President Bush--at an annual rate that is nearly twice as fast as under President Clinton.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates SPENDING EXTS .cfm. Riedl. 6/5 [Brian M. and the coming Social Security. That amount is also $24 billion over the President's proposed $992 billion.#2 – DEFICIT SPENDING NOW Federal spending is high – Bush and Congress raising budget. and Medicaid costs of 77 million retiring baby boomers threaten to add another $12. While defense spending has received large increases. Heritage Foundation. the difference between growing discretionary spending by 8 percent annually versus 3 percent annually is a staggering $3. http://www. “Congress's Budget Resolution Promises Spending Hikes Now and Tax Hikes Soon”. or 8 percent. Medicare. 2009 discretionary spending (excluding emergencies) by $80 Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation. yet each year's discretionary spending increase also matters because it becomes part of the following year's baseline. Riedl is Grover M. Hermann Fellow in Federal Budgetary Affairs in the Thomas A.000 per household to the taxpayers' annual tab. Nalepka] Federal spending now tops $25. June 5. PAYGO rules--get most of the attention.6 trillion--the same cost as extending all the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts and fixing the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). 2008.[3] Rather than address escalating federal spending and the coming the budget irresponsibly piles on even more spending and debt.

they have used blatant accounting gimmicks. and Waive their own PAYGO rules and enact a farm bill that adds approximately $20 billion to the budget deficit. Riedl is Grover M.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates SPENDING EXTS . despite record-high farm incomes. such as fake sunsets and shifting payment dates. 6/5 [Brian M. “Congress's Budget Resolution Promises Spending Hikes Now and Tax Hikes Soon”.org/Research/Budget/wm1946. Nalepka] The Democratic congressional majority promised pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) budgeting that would prevent new deficit spending.4 percent increase in discretionary spending.#3 – NO PAY-GO NOW Congress spending is still high – Democrats violating PAYGO.cfm. Heritage Foundation. 2008. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation.heritage. Riedl. http://www. Hermann Fellow in Federal Budgetary Affairs in the Thomas A. Enact a student loan bill with $15 billion in new deficit spending. 12 .[2] Gimmicks such as abusing the "emergency" designation also helped Congress to eventually secure White House acceptance of most of its proposed 9. to: Pass SCHIP (State Children's Health Insurance) legislation adding $55 billion to the budget deficit. During the 17 months of their majority. The budget resolution shows that Congress has retained its spending addiction. June 5.

business process engineer. Basically Japan is losing mind share amongst those who have the money (and hence power) in the world. Looking ahead. belfercenter. China and India are the looming giants of Asia. The index for large manufacturers’ business sentiment fell to 5 in June from 11 in March. Japan also faces serious demographic challenges.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates 2AC JAPAN COMPETITIVENES/SOFT POWER DA FIRST.. Despite advances in IT. there are signs that their soft-power resources are increasing. If all your best people are in HK are they going to care more and more about Tokyo? If the people with money and influence are dining every night with HK or Chinese or Singapore The best and brightest will increasingly see HK. with their huge populations and rapid economic growth rates. JAPAN CONFIDENCE LOW NOW NEW YORK TIMES 07-02-2008 [“Japan: Manufacturers’ Confidence Falls”. Unlike Germany. Harvard University. Beck There are limits. Japan has never come to terms with its record in the 1930s and Familiarity is important. “Soft Power in Asia Matters”. The residual suspicion that lingers in countries like China and Korea sets limits on Japan's appeal that are reinforced every time the Japanese prime minister visits Yasukuni Shrine. They become familiar with it and then later when they have money they are likely to buy more of what they are familiar with. JAPAN CAN NEVER BE A GLOBAL LEADER – MULTIPLE EXTERNAL FACTORS CHECK Joseph S. Increasingly to those who control the money of where to invest Japan doesn't matter. or "hard power.” archive. the Japanese language is not widely a central bank survey showed." resources growing. member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors. Sep 5 2007. Moreover. “If we China and officials where are Japanese officials going to come in and slip in a hint or two? Singapore as "where it is at". December 5. http://www. By mid-century. Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations.html?ref=world business] Confidence at major Japanese manufacturers has slumped to an almost five-year low and large corporations project a significant drop in profits for the half-year through September. But other sections in the quarterly tankan report suggested pockets of strength have cushioned Japan’s slowdown. Not only are their military. Nye.harvard. meaning major manufacturers were marginally more optimistic than pessimistic. having people on the ground is important. 2005. JAPAN’S SOFT POWER DECLINE INEVITABLE – THEY WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE FOREIGN INVESTORS SJ Smith. As the financial leaders of tomorrow increasingly have no contact with Japan that will decrease Japan's "soft power".nytimes. which repudiated its past aggression and reconciled with its neighbors in the framework of the European Union. Japan will increasingly be "past it" or "no longer important". Beck This does represent a loss of financial clout. the younger generation will . Although the figure represented the third straight quarterly drop and was the worst reading since September 2003. AND. Dean Emeritus of the Kennedy School.. Japan's culture remains inward-looking.ksg.japantoday. AND. This is one of the reasons why so many software companies give students cheap versions of very expensive software. and Japan's meager English-language skills make it difficult to attract international talent to its universities. It's simple. 13 . Japan's population could shrink by 30 percent unless it attracts 17 million immigrants—a hard task in a country historically resistant to immigration. too. it was better than market expectations of 2 to 4 and remained above zero.

S.37 and up by 15 percent on January's poll.10 an ounce as a slowing global economy knocks demand for industrial usage of the metal. I got a resounding. with a median forecast of $17. Mint can't keep up with demand. lexis. who are the UK’s biggest bullion supplier to the retail market. http://www. “That’s sticking your neck out and asking for it to be cut off. In the ‘70s we had a lot of sellers. with a median forecast of $17. but very few sellers. it is still another step in the gradual process of increasing investor awareness.50 an ounce in 2008.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates 2AC SILVER DA FRONTLINE FIRST.” he said. When I asked him if there was any truth to these rumours of a shortage. more and more gold and silver is passing into private hands. AND. Intelligencer Journal. AND.” But whether you believe in the shortage of physical silver or not. Then they get on the blogs and rumours spreads. “Is the world really short of silver?” “Reuters poll says average gold prices to be 30% higher this year and silver to track”. with holdings in the iSharesSilver Trust. standing at a record 6. “No”. NO SHORTAGE OF SUPPLY FRISBY 06-18-2008 [Dominic. "Silver does tend to track gold higher but the fundamentals are not that good. Dollar Has Silver Lining. From the London Bullion Market or even elsewhere. “These rumours start because people make judgements based on the markets that are available to them.45 tonnes on July 22. as more and more people start talking about / bansal] Silver is expected to follow gold higher in 2008. They’re hoarding it. At the moment we have buyers in precious metals. the largest silver-backed exchange traded fund listed in New York. May 29. Tony Baird. We saw our first programme on mainstream TV on the subject of gold last Friday on BBC1. I contacted Baird and Co. What’s more there is so much misanalysis of figures. almost a third higher than the 2007 average price of $13. 2008(Patrick. http://www. has become such a popular option for investors that the U. (Not everyone can buy in the London Bullion Market). I can get you silver in pretty much any quantity you like. you cannot argue with the fact that investor demand for precious metals is increasing steadily each year.The Silver Industry is Collapsing because we are not using it enough – PLAN INCREASES THE DEMAND SHEPPERD 07-24-2008 [David. While it didn’t really touch on the subject of “Why buy Gold?”. and spoke to the boss. If you want silver. There's rising mine supply and given the market is more industry driven." Standard Chartered's Smith said. demand could suffer in light of the economic slowdown.” I don’t make predictions about markets. NON-UNIQUE – DEMAND FOR SILVER EAGLE COIN INCREASING NOW Patrick Burns. But prices will struggle to move higher in 2009.” Baird continued. As central banks sell and investor demand increases.” That’s a view that precious metals analyst Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group confirms in his 2008 Gold and Silver Yearbooks. People were queuing up to sell their grandmother’s cutlery and their grandfather’s teeth. scheurell) Demand for the Silver Eagle. Mineweb staff writer. Mineweb. NON-UNIQUE AND TURN . which is one ounce of 99 percent-pure silver. private investor in mining and energy companies. These private investors are not selling their gold and silver.moneyweek.138. 14 . Rising investor interest has boosted silver so far in 2008. That is a trend that is not set to change but to continue. “It’s all rumour. But now there are very few.html] To investigate further. For Some. But I’ve been in this business for 40 years. Scrap silver is not hard to find and we refine it.

electrical conductors.” From silver’s current price of $18. in general. The prices of the two metals often move parallel to one another. is emerging markets like China. Now. consider the relative impact of a rock tossed into a pond versus the same rock being tossed into a puddle. but not the best performing precious metal. And there’s very little threat of central banks selling large tranches of silver into the market. India. And the rate at which iyndustry finds new. which I expect will clear $30 in 2008.5%. we’ve consumed more silver above ground than we’ve been able to extract from below ground (compared to only four to five years for gold). founder of GoldMoney. * Emerging Markets: Despite fears to the contrary. photographic film or disinfectants.1%.S. STRAIGHT STOCKS. For 18 straight years now. silver is poised to rocket . quite simply. That’s because the true driver toward higher commodity prices. whatever is needed must be mined. has better supply and demand characteristics than * Supply and gold. making gold the premier asset of choice.SDI 2008 KMT Tournament Updates SILVER EXTS .com/current-market-news/silver-prices-ready-to- rocket-four-reasons-why-and-two-ways-to-buy] Silver prices have vaulted an extraordinary 106% in the past two and a half years. robust industrial demand for silver will continue even if United States slips into recession. whether for jewelry. silver prices have gained 33% since mid December. unique uses for the white metal is staggering compared to gold. but steeper gains than gold. China’s expansion alone can be compared to the industrial explosions that took place in Japan in the 1960s and the United States at the turn of the last millennium.S. As a result. associate editor. Like gold.handing investors not only gains in our bear-market economy. Fewer dollars trade daily on the silver exchange than on the gold exchange. which is always an overhanging concern with gold.straightstocks. which has been hoarded by central banks for decades.33 an ounce.6%. More impressive. stocks have fared since then: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has plunged 13. And here are four reasons why that’s more than probable: Demand: Silver. To visualize this concept. “Silver prices ready to rocket: Four Reasons Why and Two Ways to Buy”. 15 . That honor will go to silver. Therefore. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 10. However. LIKE JEWELRY. silver is a safe haven from inflation and a weak dollar. Commercial demand for silver is growing. Russia and Eastern Europe. * Market Capitalization: The silver market is much less capitalized than the gold market. there’s no appreciable aboveground supply of silver. DRIVE THE DEMAND FOR SILVER CAGGESO 07-08-08 [Mike. compare that to how U. The S&P 500 Index has fallen 11. $30 an ounce would be a 63. That’s because only a portion of silver demand comes from investors. economy “will get much worse in 2008. http://www. James Turk. * Above Ground Supply: Unlike gold. said in his annual forecast that the U.#2 – ALT CAUSES TO DEMAND OTHER CAUSES.7% gain. every dollar spent on silver will have a greater impact on the silver market than dollars spent on gold will have on the gold market.