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SDI 2008 KMT

Warming Good – Ice Age


WARMING GOOD – ICE AGE
WARMING GOOD – ICE AGE.........................................................................................................................1
1NC SHELL........................................................................................................................................................2
1NC SHELL........................................................................................................................................................3
U – ICE AGE COMING.....................................................................................................................................4
U – ICE AGE COMING.....................................................................................................................................5
U – TEMPS ARE COOLING - AT: ICE MELTS............................................................................................6
U – TEMPS ARE COOLING – SOLAR VARIATIONS....................................................................................7
AT: WILKENS ICE SHELF COLLAPSE.........................................................................................................8
ICE AGE BRINKS..............................................................................................................................................9
GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE.....................................................................................10
GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE.....................................................................................11
GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE.....................................................................................12
GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE.....................................................................................13
MILANKOVITCH THEORY TRUE...............................................................................................................14
ICE AGE IMPACTS.........................................................................................................................................15
ICE AGE – IMPACTS – EXTINCTION..........................................................................................................16
ICE AGE – IMPACTS – SUPERVOLCANOES..............................................................................................17
ICE AGE – IMPACTS – SUPERVOLCANOES..............................................................................................18
ICE AGE – IMPACTS – WAR.........................................................................................................................19
ICE AGE – IMPACTS – SPECIES LOSS........................................................................................................20
ICE AGE – IMPACTS - FAMINE....................................................................................................................21
2NC FRONTLINE – NO NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT SHUTDOWN....................................................22
2NC FRONTLINE – NO NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT SHUTDOWN....................................................23
NAC ANS - #1 – THEORY WRONG..............................................................................................................24
NAC ANS - #1 – THEORY WRONG..............................................................................................................25
GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE – 2AC.....................................................................................................26
GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE – 2AC.....................................................................................................27
GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE – 2AC.....................................................................................................28
1AR – WARMING  ICE AGE......................................................................................................................29
EXTS – NO ICE AGE COMING NOW...........................................................................................................30
EXTS – NO ICE AGE COMING NOW...........................................................................................................31
EXTS – GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE...................................................................................................32
EXTS – WARMING  ICE AGE....................................................................................................................33
EXTS – WARMING  ICE AGE....................................................................................................................34
EXTS – GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE...................................................................................................36
EXTS – GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE...................................................................................................37
EXTS – GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE...................................................................................................38
EXTS – CONVEYOR BELT BRINKS............................................................................................................39
ICE AGE ANS – WARMING OUTWEIGHS..................................................................................................40
IMPACT ANS – WE CAN ADAPT WITH TECH...........................................................................................41

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SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

1NC SHELL

A. STATUS QUO CO2 EMISSIONS MEANS PERMANENT WARMTH – WE WILL BE ABLE TO


STAVE OFF THE NEXT ICE AGE
BERGER AND LOUTRE 2002 [Andre and MF, professors @ Universite catholique de Louvain, “An
exceptionally long interglacial ahead?”, SCIENCE, August, lexis/ttate]
On a geological time scale, climate cycles are believed to be driven by changes in insulation (solar radiation received at the top of the
atmosphere) as a result of variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun. Over the next 100,000 years, the amplitude of insulation variations will be
small (see the figure), much smaller than during the Eemian. For example, at 65 deg N in June, insulation will vary by less than 25 Wmz over the next 25,000 years, compared with 110
the Eemian can hardly be taken as an analog for the next
Wm^sup -2^ between 125,000 and 115,000 years ago. From the standpoint of insulation,
millennia, as is often assumed. The small amplitude of future insolation variations is exceptional. One of the few past analogs (13)
occurred at about 400,000 years before the present, overlapping part of MIS-- 11. Then and now, very low eccentricity values coincided with the minima of the 400,000-year eccentricity
cycle. Eccentricity will reach almost zero within the next 25,000 years, damping the variations of precession considerably. Simulations with a two-dimensional climate model (14), forced
with insolation and CO^sub 2^ variations over the next 100,000 years, provide an insight into the possible consequences of this rare phenomenon. Most CO^sub 2^ scenarios (15) led to an
exceptionally long interglacial from 5000 years before the present to 50,000 years from now (see the bottom panel of the figure), with the next glacial maximum in 100,000 years. Only for
CO^sub 2^ concentrations less than 220 ppmv was an early entrance into glaciation simulated (15). Such a long interglacial appears to have occurred only once in the last 500,000 years, at
MIS-11 (2, 3, 16). At this time, astronomical insolation and some proxy climate indicators were similar to those of today. The COZ concentration was at an interglacial level [slightly
above 280 ppmv (8)]. Simulations with these values (16) also show a particularly long interglacial, illustrating the importance of CO^sub 2^ concentrations during periods when the
The present-day CO^sub 2^ concentration of 370 ppmv is already well
amplitude of insolation variation is too small to drive the climate system.
above typical interglacial values of ~290 ppmv. Taking into account anthropogenic perturbations, we have studied further
in which the CO2 concentration increases to up to 750 ppmv over the next 200 years, returning to natural levels by 1000 years from now (13, 15). The results
suggest that, under very small insolation variations, there is a threshold value of CO^sub 2^ above which the
Greenland Ice Sheet disappears (see the bottom panel of the figure). The climate system may take 50,000 years to assimilate the
impacts of human activities during the early third millennium. In this case, an "irreversible greenhouse effect" could
become the most likely future climate. If the Greenland and west Antarctic Ice Sheets disappear completely, then today's
"Anthropocene" (17) may only be a transition between the Quaternary and the next geological period. J. Murray
Mitchell Jr. already predicted in 1972 that "The net impact of human activities on the climate of the future decades and centuries
is quite likely to be one of warming and therefore favorable to the perpetuation of the present interglacial" [(1), p. 436].

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1NC SHELL
AND, THE IMPACT OF ICE AGE OUTWEIGHS GLOBAL WARMING – EXTINCTION
JAWOROWSKI 2004 [Zbigniew, chairman @ Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for
Radiological Protection in Warsaw, 21ST CENTURY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Winter/ttate]
It is difficult to predict the advent of a new Ice Age-the time when continental glaciers will start to cover Scandinavia, Central and Northern Europe, Asia, Canada, and the United States,
Chile and Argentina with a layer of ice hundreds and thousands of meters thick; when mountain glaciers in the Himalayas, Andes and Alps, in Africa and
Indonesia once again will descend into the valleys. Some climatologists claim that this will happen in 50 to 150 years.
modern civilization? They will be swept away by
What fate awaits the Baltic Sea, the lakes, the forests, animals, cities, nations, and the whole infrastructure of
the advancing ice and then covered by moraine hills. This disaster will be incomparably more calamitous than all the
doomsday prophecies of the proponents of the ~-made global warming hypothesis.
The current sunspot cycle is weaker than the preceding cycles, and the next two cycles will be even weaker. Bashkirtsev and Mishnich expect that the minimum of the sec- ular cycle of solar activity
will occur between 2021 and 2026, which will result in the minimum global temperature of the surface air. The shift from warm to cool climate might have already started. The average
annual air temperature in Irkutsk, which correlates well with the average annual global temper- ature of the surface air, reached its maximum of +2.3°C in 1997, and then began to drop to
+1.2°C in 1998, to +0.7°C in 1999, and to +0.4°C in 2000. This prediction is in agreement with major changes observed currently in biota of Pacific Ocean, associated with an oscillating
climate cycle of about 50 years’ periodicity.
let's enjoy the warming, this
The approaching new Ice Age poses a real challenge for mankind, much greater than all the other challenges in history. Before it comes-
benign gift from nature, and let's vigorously investigate the physics of clouds. F. Hoyle and C. Wickramasinghe stated recently that "without some
artificial means of giving positive feedback to the climate ... an eventual drift into Ice Age conditions appears
inevitable." These conditions "would render a large fraction of the world's major food growing areas inoperable, and so
would inevitably lead to the extinction of most of the present human population." According to Hoyle and Wickramsinghe, "those
who have engaged in uncritical scaremongering over an enhanced greenhouse effect raising the Earth's temperature by
a degree or two should be seen as both misguided and dangerous," for the problem of the present "is of a drift back into an
Ice Age, not away from an Ice Age."
Will mankind be able to protect the biosphere against the next returning Ice Age? It depends on how much time we still have. I do not think that in the next 50 years we would acquire the
knowledge and resources sufficient for governing climate on a global scale. Surely we shall not stop climate cooling by increasing industrial CO2 emissions. Even with the doubling of
CO2 atmospheric levels, the increase in global surface air tem- perature would be trifling. However, it is unlikely that perma- nent doubling of the atmospheric CO2 , even using all our
car- bon resources, is attainable by human activities. Also, it does not seem possible that we will ever gain influ- ence over the Sun’s activity. However, I think that in the next centuries
we shall learn to control sea currents and clouds, and this could be sufficient to govern the climate of our planet.
The following "thought experiment" illustrates how valuable our civilization, and the very existence of man's intellect, for the terrestrial biosphere. Mikhail Budyko, the leading Russian
Ice Age periods could result in a
climatologist (now deceased) predicted in 1982 a future drastic C02 deficit in the atmosphere, and claimed that one of the next
freezing of the entire surface of the Earth, including the oceans. The only niches of life, he said, would survive on the active
volcano edges.

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U – ICE AGE COMING

ORBITAL CYCLES PROVE WE SHOULD BE IN A NATURAL ICE AGE BY 2012


CARUBA 2008 [Alan, YEARBOOK OF EXPERTS, February 19/ttate]
Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, is
staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute. He recently published a commentary asserting that a global cold
spell could replace global warming. Note that the Earth has been warming-about one degree Fahrenheit-since
the last mini-Ice Age ended around 1850. "The real reasons for climate change are uneven solar radiation",
said Dr. Sorokhtin, while citing others that include the Earth's axis gyration and instability of oceanic
currents.
"Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius
and area of the irradiating solar surface." Yes, the Sun itself goes through periods of change. Dr. Sorokhtin
believes that "Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by
2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or
even longer."
There is a reason scientists refer to our era as an "interglacial period", i.e., a time between Ice Ages. We are
at the end of an 11,500 cycle.

ICE AGE COMING—GLACIER DATA PROVES


HECHT 2005 [Laurence, editor, “Is a new ice age underway?”, 21ST CENTURY SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY MAGAZINE, http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Ice_Age.html / ttate]
“Watch out, Al Gore. The glaciers will get you!” With that appended note, my friend, retired field geologist
Jack Sauers, forwarded to me a report that should have been a lead item in every newspaper in the world. It
was the news that the best-measured glacier in North America, the Nisqually on Mount Rainier, has been
growing since 1931.

The significance of the fact, immediately grasped by any competent climatologist, is that glacial advance is
an early warning sign of Northern Hemisphere chilling of the sort that can bring on an Ice Age. The last
Little Ice Age continued from about 1400 to 1850. It was followed by a period of slight warming. There are a
growing number of signs that we may be descending into another Little Ice Age—all the mountains of
“global warming” propaganda aside.

REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERNS PROVE ICE AGE IS COMING


CARUBA 2008 [Alan, YEARBOOK OF EXPERTS, February 19 / ttate]
If you have been paying attention to global weather reports, you know that China has had the heaviest
snowfall in at least three decades. David Deming, a geophysicist, in a December 19, 2007 article in The
Washington Times, noted that, "South America this year experienced one of its coldest winters in decades. In
Buenos Aires, snow fell for the first time since the year 1918." This occurred across the entire Southern
Hemisphere. "Johannesburg, South Africa, had the first significant snowfall in 26 years. Australia
experienced the coldest June ever."

It must be said that one big blizzard does not an Ice Age make, but a whole series of events that suggest a
cooling cycle may well be the warning that is being ignored in the midst of the vast global warming hoax.

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Warming Good – Ice Age
U – ICE AGE COMING

WE ARE DUE FOR A FULL-SCALE ICE AGE – SOLAR ACTIVITY


BRENNAN 2007 [Phillip, ice age researcher and author, “Could Low Solar Activity Trigger an Ice
Age?”, Dec 05, http://www.iceagenow.com/Could_Low_Solar_Activity_Trigger_an_Ice_Age.htm / ttate]
After a period of very high sunspot activity in the 20th century, our sun has suddenly gone exceptionally
quiet, says astronomer Dr. David Whitehouse.
We’re at the end of one sunspot cycle, and though astronomers keep waiting for the sunspots to return
marking the start of cycle 24, there’s no sign of that returning anytime soon.
Sunspots - dark blotches of magnetic turbulence on the Sun's surface - come and go in a roughly 11-year
cycle. Every 11 years there’s usually a sunspot maximum followed by a minimum. But in May 2006 this
slowed to a record low. "It's off the bottom of the charts," said NASA scientist David Hathaway. "This has
important repercussions for future solar activity." What's more, it's not the only indicator that the Sun is up to
something."
My concern is that this decline in activity could be a precursor to the next ice age, because during the
Maunder Minimum, when sunspots were rare during the 17th century, the earth endured the "Little Ice Age."
Studies show that by the end of the 20th century the Sun's activity may have been the highest in more than
8,000 years, with the Sun’s magnetic field almost doubling in the past century.
That’s where the so-called "global warming" came from.
But in the past ten years or so the Sun’s activity started declining. Cycle 24 was supposed to arrive a year
ago. Then NOAA changed its forecast to March 2007. Now they’ve upped it to March 2008. The longer it
takes, the weaker Cycle 24 it is likely to be. Such behavior is usually followed by cooler temperatures on
Earth.
Some members of the Russian Academy of Sciences say we may be at the start of a period like that seen
between 1790 and 1820, a minor decline in solar activity called the Dalton Minimum. They estimate that the
Sun's reduced activity may cause a global temperature drop of 1.5C by 2020. This is larger than most
sensible predictions of man-made global warming over this period.
I fear that the decline will be far greater than that. The next beat of the Little Ice Age cycle is due. The next
beat of the 11,500-year ice-age cycle is due. And the next beat of the 105,000-year ice-age cycle is due. In
other words, we're due for the BIG one.

NEW STUDIES PROVE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING


BOISE WEEKLY 05-13-2008 [“A new reason to freak out about the weather”, proquest/ttate]
Damn scientists can't make up their minds. Now that we've all been trained to worry about the Earth
warming up a few degrees, some scientists are now claiming that we have a bigger problem to worry about:
the coming of a new ice age. The twin culprits are the sun's magnetic field and the flow of ocean and wind
currents with the bottom line being that we've suffered the coldest winter since Al Gore became a superhero
and glaciers are once again growing rather than shrinking. According to Australian geophysicist Phil
Chapman, a lack of sunspot activity and the weakening of the surj's magnetic field is to blame for the world's
rapid cooling since January 2007. "This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record, and it
puts us back to where we were in 1930," said Dr. Chapman. "If the temperature does not soon recover, we
will have to conclude that global warming is over." (Times of India)

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U – TEMPS ARE COOLING - AT: ICE MELTS

ICE GROWING IN THE ANTARCTIC REGIONS


CREATING ORWELLIAN WORLDVIEW 2008[“Media ignores record ice growth and cooling
Temperatures”, lexis/ttate]
According to Joseph DAleo a certified consulting meteorologist last year the Antarctic set a new record for
ice growth and this summer a unprecedented snow fall covered the southern hemisphere but you didnt hear
that in the media did you? Why? I think we all know why. That type of news doesnt fit in with the popular
media meme of Global warming.

DAleo claims that recent reports citing Global warming as the fault for the phenomena in Antarctica are
misleading. According to DAleo in comparison to the vast ice mass of Antarctica the Wilkins ice sheet
break amounts to an icicle falling from a snow and ice cover roof. No big deal.

It is also DAleo claim that, winter is coming on quickly. Satellite images show the ice has already refrozen
around the broken pieces and expanded. In fact the ice is returning so fast, it is running an amazing 60%
ahead (4.0 vs 2.5 million square km extent) of last year when it set a new record.

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U – TEMPS ARE COOLING – SOLAR VARIATIONS

SOLAR VARIATIONS  GLOBAL TEMPS COOLING


BELLINGHAM HERALD 2008 [“Geologist: Sun’s shift could mean global chill”, April 09,
proquest/
ttate]
Apr. 9--BELLINGHAM -- Fluctuations in solar radiation could mean colder weather in the decades ahead, despite all
the talk about global warming, retired Western Washington University geologist Don Easterbrook said Tuesday.

Easterbrook is convinced that the threat of global warming from mankind's carbon dioxide pollution is
overblown.

In a campus lecture, he cited centuries of climate data in an effort to convince a somewhat skeptical audience
that carbon dioxide's impact on climate is being much exaggerated by former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and by scientists who
appear to have won the debate over global warming.

"Despite all you hear about the debate being over, the debate is just starting," Easterbrook said.

30-YEAR TREND

Easterbrook doesn't deny that the Earth's climate has been warming slowly since about 1980. But he argued
that this warming trend fits a longstanding pattern of warming and cooling cycles that last roughly 30 years.
Sunspot activity and other solar changes appear to explain the 30-year cycles, he said.

If that pattern persists, the earth could now be close to the next 30-year cooling cycle, Easterbrook said.

He noted that the 2007-08 winter set records for cold and snow in many parts of the globe. According to the data he displayed, the Earth's temperature hit a peak in
1998 and has been steady or slightly cooler since then.

"One cold winter doesn't mean much of anything," he said. "A 10-year trend is interesting."

He contended that warming periods appear to match periods of sunspot activity, which currently is at a low point.

Easterbrook noted that astrophysicists have been expecting that activity to begin increasing soon, but so far it has not.

Prolonged periods of low activity could lead to a dramatic cooling such as occurred in Europe during the so-called "Little Ice Age," a term loosely used to describe
cooler weather in the 14th to 19th centuries, Easterbrook said.

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AT: WILKENS ICE SHELF COLLAPSE

TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ANTARCTIC – THE ICE SHELF DID NOT COLLAPSE
DUE TO WARMING
CREATING ORWELLIAN WORLDVIEW 2008[“Media ignores record ice growth and cooling
Temperatures”, lexis/ttate]
The Ice in Antarctic is not melting at a dangerous rate because of Global warming. In reality temperatures
have been cooling on the continent since 1979.

Yet this MSNBC report filed by Andrea Thompson gives the unwarranted impression that one, the shelf
collapse was due to Global warming and two, this collapse was an enormous Ice mass.

Wrong on both counts tectonic activity (earth movement) was the cause of the Wilkins Ice Shelf collapse
not Global warming as reported. This movement is usually associated with Earthquakes, volcanic activity,
mountain-building and oceanic trench formation and secondly in relations to the vast geographic region of
Antarctica the Wilkins Ice Shelf collapse is but a small section of ice in comparison. The picture above
demonstrates how large and cold the area is which we are discussing.

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ICE AGE BRINKS

WE ARE ON THE BRINK – THE NEXT ICE AGE WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW YEARS TO BEGIN
TAYLOR 2004 [James M., managing editor, “NY Times: Greenhouse gases may avert next ice age”,
ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE NEWS, January 01,
http://www.globalwarmingheartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=14022 / ttate]
With or without global warming, the Times reports many experts are convinced the current warmth should
end “any millennium now.” Not only is the next ice age overdue, but the scientific evidence suggests the
Earth typically transitions from warming periods to full-fledged ice ages in a matter of decades. This, as the
Times noted, has many scientists wondering: Is it really wise for policymakers to be considering drastic steps
to forestall warming?

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GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE

CO2 Emissions are key to stop at least Five Ice Ages


ScienceDaily Aug. 30, 2007 Dr Tyrrell is a Reader in the University of Southampton's School of Ocean and
Earth Science. This research was published in Tellus B, vol 59 p664
ScienceDaily (Aug. 30, 2007) — Future ice ages may be delayed by up to half a million years by our burning of fossil
fuels. That is the implication of recent work by Dr Toby Tyrrell of the University of Southampton's School of
Ocean and Earth Science at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. Arguably, this work
demonstrates the most far-reaching disruption of long-term planetary processes yet suggested for human
activity. Dr Tyrrell's team used a mathematical model to study what would happen to marine chemistry in a
world with ever-increasing supplies of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. The world's oceans are absorbing
CO2 from the atmosphere but in doing so they are becoming more acidic. This in turn is dissolving the
calcium carbonate in the shells produced by surface-dwelling marine organisms, adding even more carbon to
the oceans. The outcome is elevated carbon dioxide for far longer than previously assumed. Computer
modelling in 2004 by a then oceanography undergraduate student at the University, Stephanie Castle, first
interested Dr Tyrrell and colleague Professor John Shepherd in the problem. They subsequently developed a
theoretical analysis to validate the plausibility of the phenomenon. The work, which is part-funded by the
Natural Environment Research Council, confirms earlier ideas of David Archer of the University of Chicago,
who first estimated the impact rising CO2 levels would have on the timing of the next ice age. Dr Tyrrell
said: 'Our research shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burning
fossil fuels. It shows that it if we use up all known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them.
The result would be the same if we burned them at present rates or at more moderate rates; we would still get
the same eventual ice-age-prevention result.' Ice ages occur around every 100,000 years as the pattern of
Earth's orbit alters over time. Changes in the way the sun strikes the Earth allows for the growth of ice caps,
plunging the Earth into an ice age. But it is not only variations in received sunlight that determine the descent
into an ice age; levels of atmospheric CO2 are also important. Humanity has to date burnt about 300 Gt C of
fossil fuels. This work suggests that even if only 1000 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) are eventually burnt (out
of total reserves of about 4000 Gt C) then it is likely that the next ice age will be skipped. Burning all
recoverable fossil fuels could lead to avoidance of the next five ice ages.

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GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE


WE ARE OVERDUE FOR AN ICE AGE – THE IMPACTS OUTWEIGH WARMING – MORE
WARMING KEY TO HUMAN SURVIVAL
WEEKEND AUSTRALIAN 2008 [April 26, lexis/hayes]
The latest countercultural contribution came in The Australian on Wednesday. Phil Chapman is a geophysicist and the first Australian to become a NASA astronaut. He makes
the standard argument that the average temperature on earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide, with a new twist.
As of last year, the global temperature is falling precipitously. All four of the agencies that track global temperatures (Hadley, NASA
Goddard, the Christy group and Remote Sensing Systems) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007.
Chapman comments: ``This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we
were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over. It is
time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice
age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.''
A little ice age would be ``much more harmful than anything warming may do'', but still benign by comparison with the
severe glaciation that for the past several million years has almost always blighted theplanet.
The Holocene, the warm interglacial period we've been enjoying through the past 11,000 years, has lasted longer
than normal and is due to come to an end. When it does, glaciation can occur quite quickly. For most of Europe and
North America to be buried under a layer of ice, eventually growing to a thickness of about 1.5km, the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it
can happen in as little as 20 years.
Chapman says: ``The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the
other hand, it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20
years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027. By then, most of the advanced nations would have
ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond
imagining. Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees.''
Chapman canvases strategies that may just conceivably prevent or at least delay the transition to severe glaciation. One involves a vast bulldozing program to dirty
and darken the snowfields in Canada and Siberia, ``in the hope of reducing reflectance so as to absorb more warmth from the sun. We may also be able to release
enormous floods of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from the hydrates under the Arctic permafrost and on the continental shelves, perhaps using nuclear
weapons to destabilise the deposits''.
He concludes: ``All
those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give some
thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead. It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their
reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at stake.''
The 10-year plateau in global temperatures since 1998 has already sunk the hypothesis that anthropogenic
greenhouse gas will lead to catastrophic global warming. To minds open to the evidence, it has been a collapsing paradigm for quite
some time.

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GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE

Global warming prevents next ice age


Thompson 2007 [“Global Warming Good News: No More Ice Ages”, LiveScience, 9/7/07
[http://www.livescience.com/environment/070907_co2_iceage.html], Chinikamwala
The ocean is absorbing some of the carbon dioxide emitted into the air, which is causing it to become more acidic (similarly, the
bubbles of carbon dioxide dissolved in your soda are what give it acidity).
Tyrrell and his team's model shows that carbon dioxide levels will be higher far into the future than
previously predicted, because the acidifying ocean will dissolve more calcium carbonate from the shells of
marine organisms, which acts as a buffer against acidification. But this buffer can only help to a certain
point, and eventually the ocean won't be able to take up any more carbon dioxide.
"It can't just keep taking it up," said Joan Kleypas of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, who was not involved in the study.
The model results, detailed in a recent issue of the journal Tellus, project that 8 to 10 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted into the
atmosphere will remain there for thousands of years, causing levels of the greenhouse gas to equilibrate in
the atmosphere at twice their pre-industrial levels.
"It won't go back to original levels," Kleypas told LiveScience.
the carbon dioxide
Even if we burn only a quarter of the Earth's total reserves of fossil fuels (currently we have burned less than one tenth of reserves),
remaining in the atmosphere could cause the next ice age to be skipped because ice sheets and glaciers will
have melted and won't be able to reform substantially, Tyrrell found.
In fact, burning up all of Earth's reserves would prevent the next five ice ages, the model shows, he said.
"Our research shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burning fossil fuels," Tyrrell said. "It shows that if we use up
all known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them. The result would be the same if we burned them at present rates
or at more moderate rates; we would still get the same eventual ice-age-prevention result."

CONTINUED USE OF FOSSIL FUELS KEY TO STAVING OFF THE ICE AGE
WESTERN MAIL 2001 [April 03, lexis/ttate]
Earth needs much more global warming, not less, to prevent a new ice age, say Cardiff University's Professor Chandra
Wickramasinghe and his associate Sir Fred Hoyle .. Joint research suggests current climate conditions - an Earth warming up and
causing more flooding and storms - are actually the exception rather than the rule.
For 90pc of the past 50 million years Earth has actually been locked in an ice age with vast areas of
permanent ice and snow.
The academics, in a new paper for the Astrophysics and Space Science journal, say this is the normal and stable state of Earth that humans escaped only temporarily because a
kilometrewide comet struck 10,000 years ago.
Wales, like most of the UK and Europe, was at the time covered from the north down to the Brecon Beacons with ice hundreds of metres thick.
Prof Wickramasinghe said the impact of the comet had enough energy to throw up large amounts of water in the high atmosphere to create a powerful greenhouse effect and a warmer
climate.
Methane stored near the continental margins and on the ocean floor was unleashed and feedback circuits created to maintain the new and relatively stable greenhouse effect.
Prof Wickramasinghe said, "If there was no greenhouse effect at all the temperature would be something like
30 degrees below what it is now so we would be in a permanent ice age situation.
"In Wales, for example, we would have at least 300 metres of ice. That was present 12,000 years ago which is quite recent in geological time scales and humans survived only on the
margins of this ice."
Prof Wickramasinghe and mentor Prof Hoyle, who have been making comet-related revelations for nearly 30 years, went back to 10,000 BC for their latest research.
"It was to decide what caused the end of this ice age so suddenly, the change from ice age to warmth in a matter of decades, " said Prof Wickramasinghe.
"That switch has been a puzzle for a long time and such a sharp change of temperatures could only have been caused by the one-kilometre comet hitting Earth and releasing the energy to
vaporise oceans."
The fear is all this reversing because of comet dust clogging Earth's upper atmosphere.
Prof Wickramasinghe said, "There is always a screen of particles in the upper atmosphere and if it thickens ten-fold then the sunlight would be reflected back to space causing a rapid
cooling of the earth.
"So thegreenhouse effect is something that actually keeps us going. It's a minor evil compared with what we
are talking about in an ice age."
"Regrettable as such effects would be, the much more serious threat is the return to ice age conditions.
Perhaps we should step up rather than decrease our greenhouse gas emissions."

12
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE

CONTINUED CO2 EMISSIONS NECESSARY TO CHECK OFF OVERDUE ICE AGE


MARSH 2008 [George, retired physicist @ Argonne National Laboratory and former consultant to
the Dept of Defense, “The Coming of a New Ice Age”,
http://www.winningreen.com/site/epage/59549_621.htm / ttate
Five hundred million years ago, carbon dioxide concentrations were over 13 times current levels; and not
until about 20 million years ago did carbon dioxide levels dropped to a little less than twice what they are
today.
It is possible that moderately increased carbon dioxide concentrations could extend the current interglacial
period. But we have not reached the level required yet, nor do we know the optimum level to reach.
So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UN’s
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climatology community in general could do is spend
their efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide needed to extend the current interglacial
period indefinitely.
NASA has predicted that the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should
cause a very significant cooling of Earth’s climate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a new Ice Age?
We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by spending trillions
of dollars to combat a perceived global warming threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.

CONTINUED CO2 EMISSIONS NECESSARY TO BLOCK AN ICE AGE FOR THOUSANDS OF


YEARS
ECOFRIEND.ORG 2007 [“Carbon emissions might prevent the next ice age”, August 23,
http://www.ecofriend.org/entry/carbon-emissions-might-prevent-the-next-ice-age/ sui]
What happens when you drink a lot in the evening? The answer is obvious! You have a hangover in the morning.
Similar is the case with our environment, once the oceans and the atmosphere drink a lot of CO2 emitted by
us, it too will go in a hangover that will not last a day or two but hundreds of thousands of years. This hangover
might cause enough warming to delay the next ice age by thousands of years.
Researchers have estimated carbon dioxide as having a lifetime in the atmosphere between 5 and 200 years before it is ultimately absorbed by the oceans. The
detailed specs show an even grave picture of the planet, researchers are estimating that one-tenth of the CO2 we are emitting now will keep on lingering in the
atmosphere for at least 100,000 years and even much longer than that.
We all estimate that the unique power of Earth to heal itself might sort out things for us. However, the stats don’t show this. As the atmosphere keeps on
accumulating more and more CO2, the more amount is absorbed by the oceans that makes them more acidic. This increase in the acidity levels of water dissolves
more calcium carbonate from the shells of marine organisms. This in turn reduces the oceans ability to absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere leaving more of this
greenhouse gas lurking in the air.
This increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases will result in the onset of global warming that will ultimately
delay or even prevent the next ice age that usually occurs every 100,000 years. Changes in the orbit of our planet
make it shift away from the sun, which decreases the amount of sunlight and the heat entering our
atmosphere. This triggers a global cooling effect resulting in the growth of ice caps. For some reasons that are still not
clear, this global cooling causes the ocean to draw more CO2 from the atmosphere. Starved of this greenhouse
gas the atmospheres temperature plunges until the planet is covered in ice.
For now the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere rests at 380 ppm, up from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. An analysis shows that these levels could reach 900
ppm by the end of the century. CO2 levels above 560 ppm would most certainly be enough to prevent the global cooling that now triggers an ice age. Even levels of
400 ppm might make this process less likely.
This all might look good as the planet might be deprived of its next ice age, but future consequences of this can be devastating. Researchers are estimating that
CO2 from the planet, then also it will postpone the next ice age by half a million years, that is four
even if nature absorbs all the
normal ice ages might never happen.

13
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

MILANKOVITCH THEORY TRUE

RECENT RESEARCH ON SEAFLOOR SEDIMENT PROVES SOLAR CYCLES THEORY


CORRECT
PELLERIN, THOMPSON, AND GOLDSTEIN 2003 [“Are ice age cycles of the Northern
Hemisphere driven by processes in the Southern Hemisphere?, BNET,
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_gx5204/is_2003/ai_n19124300 / Chinikamwala]
Despite gaps in knowledge, many hypotheses exist about what causes an ice age to begin or end. Some focus
on the Northern Hemisphere as the connection between orbital variations and climate. In the 1930s, for
example, the Serbian geophysicist Milutin Milankovitch suggested that orbital variations in solar radiation at
60N drove the waxing and waning of ice sheets in North America and Europe. In 1912, Milankovitch had
described the small but regular changes in the shape of Earths orbit and the direction of its axis, a process
now called the Milankovitch cycle. A confluence of these factors maximum eccentricity (when Earths orbit
is most elliptical), extreme axial tilt (with the North Pole pointed most acutely away from the Sun), and
precession, which delays and reduces solar radiation at high northern latitudes could lead to a major ice age
in the Northern Hemisphere.
A recent study of Antarctic seafloor sediment cores by an international team of scientists shows that changes
in polar regions particularly the advance and retreat of glaciers follow variations in Earths orbit, tilt, and
precession as described in the Milankovitch cycle. The samples showed that Antarctic glaciers advanced and
retreated at regular intervals during a 400,000-year period, and the glaciation and retreat cycle matched those
predicted by Milankovitch, with increased glaciation at 100,000-and 40,000-year intervals.

14
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

ICE AGE IMPACTS

ICE AGE  UNIMAGINED CATASTROPHES AND MASS DEATH


CHAPMAN 2008 [Phil, “Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh, THE AUSTRALIAN, April 23,
lexis/ttate]
It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if
we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850. There is no doubt
that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything
warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate
agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but
global cooling will decrease it.
Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to
compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases.
There is also another possibility, remote but much more serious. The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and
other evidence show that for the past several million years, severe glaciation has almost always afflicted our
planet.
The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under about
1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typically
lasting less than 10,000 years.
The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000
years ago, so the ice is overdue. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in
global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years.
The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand,
it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for
20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027.
By then, most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the
world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining.
Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees. Once the
glaciation starts, it will last 1000 centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time.

15
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age
ICE AGE – IMPACTS – EXTINCTION

ICE AGE  EXTINCTION


CARUBA 2008 [Alan, YEARBOOK OF EXPERTS, February 19/ttate]
On February 7, Investors Business Daily had an editorial titled "The Sun Also Sets" in which it cited the
views of Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council. In
essence, Tapping wants people to know that solar activity such as sunspots, i.e., magnetic storms, "has been
disturbingly quiet."

It's useful to know that global temperatures and events closely reflect solar cycles.

The lack of activity "could signal the beginning of what is known as the Maunder Minimum." While solar
cycles tend to last about 11 years, the lack of normal or increased activity can trigger the Maunder Minimum,
an event that occurs every few centuries, can last as long as a century, and causes a colder earth.

The most recent such event was the mini-Ice Age that climatologists date from around 1300 to 1850. In the
midst of this there was a distinct solar hibernation from around 1650 to 1715.

"Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and if the sun remains quiet for
another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive
snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere."

If these events continue and become a cycle of cooling, it represents a major threat to the Earth's population
because it means that food crops will fail and, with them, the means to feed livestock, and the rest of us.

ICE AGE  EXTINCTION – WE SHOULD NOT BE WORRIED ABOUT WARMING


CARUBA 2008 [Alan, YEARBOOK OF EXPERTS, February 19/ttate]
At the very moment the Earth is on the cusp of what is likely to be a very long cooling and possibly a full
scale repeat of the last Ice Age, all the engines of government, nationally and internationally, are trying to
inhibit the discovery, extraction, and use of energy reserves that will be needed to cope with climate changes
that will impact millions and, ultimately, billions of people.

All the ethanol, wind turbines, and solar panels in the world will not keep you warm when a short or long
term cooling of the Earth occurs. Ironically, as the Greens worry about so-called endangered polar bears in
the Arctic, the bears are far more likely to survive than humans.

16
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

ICE AGE – IMPACTS – SUPERVOLCANOES

AND, SUPER VOLCANOES –

A. ICE AGE  SUPER VOLCANOES


BRENNAN 2005 [Phil, veteran journalist for Newsmax, January 25, www.newsmax.com / ttate]
"The transition period between interglacial periods and glaciation is not a smooth one – history shows
it to be violent beyond imagination. And it may be just around the corner. If the unchallenged results of the work of
Genevieve Woillard and others who studied past ice ages are any indication of the pace of glaciation, once it starts, the transition period
is a mere 20 years or so. And we may be well into that 20-year period now. Woillard estimated that the period before that final 20 years –
when the earth began gearing up for an end to the interglacial period – could be as long as 150 years and as short as 75 years."

According to Woillard's studies and those of other paleological climate researchers,


the transition between interglacial and glacial
periods is one of increasing violence – more volcanic eruptions, storms, earthquakes and other natural
disasters.
Allow me to digress. In considering what lay behind the earthquake that triggered the killer tsunami, we should note that the size and weight of the
Antarctic ice pack has grown substantially in recent years. What's that got to do with the quake?

Just this, as I wrote in 1997: "As Peter Tomkins and Christopher Bird explained in their book, Secret
of the Soil: "... ice and snow, accumulating at the poles, presses down on the planet, causing it to
bulge at the seams like a balloon. This triggers the pre-stressed earthquake faults into slipping. Hence
earthquakes. It also causes volcanism – potentially more dangerous – by squeezing magma and
causing eruptions. The colder it gets and the more snow presses down on the Poles, the more magma
is compressed and volcanoes act up."

B. SUPERVOLCANOES  EXTINCTION
BBC NEWS 2000 [“Super Volcanoes”, February 03,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes.shtml /ttate]
Hidden deep beneath the Earth's surface lie one of the most destructive and yet least-understood
natural phenomena in the world - supervolcanoes. Only a handful exist in the world but when one
erupts it will be unlike any volcano we have ever witnessed. The explosion will be heard around the
world. The sky will darken, black rain will fall, and the Earth will be plunged into the equivalent of a
nuclear winter.
The last supervolcano to erupt was Toba 74,000 years ago in Sumatra. Ten thousand times bigger than Mt St Helens, it created a global catastrophe
dramatically affecting life on Earth. Scientists know that another one is due - they just don't know when... or where.

It is little known that lying underneath one of America's areas of outstanding natural beauty - Yellowstone Park - is one of the largest supervolcanoes in
the world. Scientists have revealed that it has been on a regular eruption cycle of 600,000 years. The last eruption was 640,000 years ago... so the next is
overdue.

17
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

ICE AGE – IMPACTS – SUPERVOLCANOES

SUPERVOLCANOES  EXTINCTION
LIVESCIENCE NEWS 2005 [“Super volcano will challenge civilization, geologists warn”, March
08, http://www.livescience.com/environment/050308_super_volcano.html //ttate]
Super-eruptions are up to hundreds of times larger than these," said Stephen Self of the United Kingdom's
(U.K.) Open University.

"An area the size of North America can be devastated, and pronounced deterioration of global climate would
be expected for a few years following the eruption," Self said. "They could result in the devastation of world
agriculture, severe disruption of food supplies, and mass starvation. These effects could be sufficiently severe
to threaten the fabric of civilization."

18
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age
ICE AGE – IMPACTS – WAR

ICE AGE  GLOBAL WARS


CHAPMAN 2008 [Phil, geophysicist and astronautical engineer, “Letter to Jerry Pournelle, PhD”,
http://globalwarming-arclein.blogspot.com/2008/03/arctic-heat-dump-phil-chapman-pournelle.html,
accessed 6-30-08 / ttate]
However, the four major organizations that track the global average temperature have now released their
results for 2007. They are the Hadley Centre in the UK (Hadley), the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., in
Santa Rosa, CA, (RSS) and the Christy group at the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH). The first three have been alarmed about GW for years, while the
All four of these studies report an astonishing drop in
UAH group (which uses satellite MSU measurements) has tended to be skeptical.
global temperature during 2007, between 0.59 and 0.75 degrees C. You can see graphs of their data at
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/ .
This is by far the fastest change in global temperature on record. It is probably just a blip – but if the climate stabilizes at this level, it will have wiped out all the
we will have to
increase since 1920, and the whole GW thing will have gone away. Moreover, if 2008 shows another decrease of this magnitude,
consider seriously the possibility that the 20-year transition to the next Ice Age has begun.
To paraphrase Eugene O'Neill, The Ice Age Cometh? If this is true, the consequences are appalling. Most of North America and all
of Europe north of the Alps will be under a mile of ice by 2030. This means that most of the advanced
countries except Australia will cease to exist. There can be little doubt that the need to survive will trump any
international norms of behavior: I would expect that Europe would invade Africa and the US would invade
Mexico, accepting genocide of the indigenous populations as an unfortunate necessity, given the absolute
need for lebensraum.

19
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age
ICE AGE – IMPACTS – SPECIES LOSS

AN ICE AGE  SPECIES LOSS – WARMING DOES NOT


BUDYKO, ET AL 1998 [M.I. – researcher @ State Hydrological Insitute in USSR, “Natural Climatic
Catastrophes”, GLOBAL CLIMATIC CATASTROPHES /ttate]
The heating of the atmosphere as cause of animal extinction also seems highly improbable, because of the
selective character of the extinction. Vertebrates, including many groups that had no thermoregulation,
disappeared, whereas warm-blooded animals (mammals and birds) did not suffer. This indicates the,
extinction of animals at the end of the Cretaceous to have been induced by a short-term cooling.

20
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

ICE AGE – IMPACTS - FAMINE

ICE AGE  NO RAINFALL


STANLEY 1996 [Steven, prof of paleobiology @ Johns Hopkins Univ and former Guggenheim Fellow,
“Chapter Four: When Winters Bgin.” CHILDREN OF THE ICE AGE/ttate]
One of the most profound environmental effects of the Ice Age has been a reduction of rainfall in many
regions of the world. In fact, during glacial maxima broad areas of Africa have become drier than they are
today. During these arid intervals dunes that at present are defunct and stabilized by vegetation have become
active in a zone that extends about three hundred miles south of the present Sahara. As dunes are wont to do
under the influence of desert winds, they have migrated. The same pattern is evident south of the equator,
where ancient sands of a previously expanded Kalahari Desert now lie buried beneath grassy savannas.
Although most of these ancient dune deposits remain to be dated, they obviously represent glacial maxima.

21
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

2NC FRONTLINE – NO NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT SHUTDOWN

FIRST, NO SHUTDOWN – NEW RESEARCH SHOWS CURRENT IS MUCH MORE STABLE


THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT – EVEN IPCC VOTES NEG
NEW YORK TIMES 2007 [May 15,
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/15/science/earth/15cold.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1 / Chinikamwala]
All that has now been removed from the forecast. Not only is northern Europe warming, but every major climate model produced by scientists worldwide in recent
warming will almost certainly continue.
years has also shown that the
“The concern had previously been that we were close to a threshold where the Atlantic circulation system
would stop,” said Susan Solomon, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “We now believe we are much
farther from that threshold, thanks to improved modeling and ocean measurements. The Gulf Stream and the
North Atlantic Current are more stable than previously thought.”
After consulting 23 climate models, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in February it was “very
unlikely” that the crucial flow of warm water to Europe would stall in this century. The panel did say that the gradual
melting of the Greenland ice sheet along with increased precipitation in the far north were likely to weaken the North Atlantic Current by 25 percent through 2100.
But the panel added that any cooling effect in Europe would be overwhelmed by a general warming of the
atmosphere, a warming that the panel said was under way as a result of rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases.
“The bottom line is that the atmosphere is warming up so much that a slowdown of the North Atlantic
Current will never be able to cool Europe,” said Helge Drange, a professor at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center in
Bergen, Norway.

AND, PREVIOUS CHANGES IN CURRENT SALINITY DUE TO NATURAL CYCLES – ANY


EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AFF CITES HAS BEEN DISPROVEN
RITTER, staff writer, 2007 [NORTH COUNTY TIMES, June 15,
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/06/16/science/14_46_146_15_07.txt], Chinikamwala
Researchers also are reconsidering the commonly held view that a drop in north Atlantic salinity was caused by melting Arctic sea ice. The salt level has
started recovering since 2000 and scientists now say the fluctuations reflect a natural cycle.
"We now realize that the observed decline in ocean salinity that occurred from 1965-2000 had more to do with the
wind patterns and storm tracks than with global warming," said Ruth Curry, an oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution in Massachusetts.
Nevertheless, climate change is expected to play a bigger role in the next cycle of freshening expected around 2020, because the Greenland ice cap is melting faster,
Curry said.
"Will it slow the ocean conveyor? It's possible," said Curry, who is not connected to Hansen's research."Will it cause the same sort of complete
alteration that we know happened 12,000 years ago? No, that's very unlikely."
Even the long-established tenet that Europe owes its mild winters to the Gulf Stream is under scrutiny, most vocally by Richard Seager, a scientist at the
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y.
He calls the Gulf Stream effect a myth, and claims the prevailing wind patterns have a much bigger role in
explaining why Europe is several degrees warmer in winter than the equivalent latitudes in North America.
"The amount of warming that the current gives -- only about 2-3 degrees over land on either side -- is really small compared
to the temperature difference between those regions, which is more like 15 to 20 centigrade in winter," he said.
"So no one should ever confuse that temperature difference between the two regions as being in any way
caused by the movement of heat by the Gulf Stream."

22
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

2NC FRONTLINE – NO NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT SHUTDOWN

AND, NO SLOWING NOW


TAYLOR 2007 [James M., managing editor of Environment & Climate News, “Gulf stream will not
shut down, SCIENCE magazine admits”, HEARTLAND INSTITUTE, February 01,
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=20505 / Chinikamwala
New data from an array of 19 measuring stations attached to buoys throughout the Atlantic Ocean show no
slowing of the Gulf Stream.
Scientists examining the data concluded Bryden's assertions were based on a single "snapshot" measurement of the Gulf Stream, which has always been subject to
wide, temporary variances.
Looking at comprehensive data taken from a much larger sampling area over a much longer period of time, scientists concluded, in the words of the November 17
issue of Science magazine, "the lag reported late last year was a mere flicker in a system prone to natural slowdowns and
speedups."
Reporting from an October conference of scientists that examined the new data, German oceanographer Martin Visbeck told Science, "more than 95 percent of the
we have not seen any significant change of the Atlantic circulation to date."
scientists at the workshop concluded that
"Abrupt climate change initiated by the
Johan Jungclaus, a German scientist who models ice sheets, reported in the November 7 New Scientist,
ice sheet melting is not a realistic scenario for the 21st century."
Climate Realists Ignored
Climate realists have long argued that alarmist predictions of a demise of the Gulf Stream were scientifically unsubstantiated.
Robert Bradley, president of the Institute for Energy Research, pointed out the speculative nature of such claims in the September 2000 issue of Environment &
Climate News. "Climate-oceanic interactions are clearly a complicated subject that the science community is still trying to understand," reported Bradley.
Other climate realists were even more critical, though news stories rarely reported the possibility they might be correct.
Benny Peiser, a research scientist at John Moores University in Liverpool, England, pointed out in December 2005 that the Gulf
Stream shutdown theory was a "silly ice age scare" that was "swallowed hook, line, and sinker" by media
allies of global warming alarmists.
"Cooling prophecies are simply not corroborated by some of the most advanced climate research," noted Peiser in
a letter to Nature. "At best, they are speculative and as such should be handled with extreme caution. What is more, the conjectures you are promoting fly
in the face of all previous long-term climate predictions on which UK government policies have been based for years."
"We can only hope the news media report the scientific refutation of this scare scenario as vigorously as they reported its initial postulation," said Bradley in an
interview for this article. "Such a forthright scientific refutation makes it very hard for the environmental activist groups to continue trotting out this scare scenario.
"We can add this debunked alarmist scare to a plethora of other debunked environmental scares, such as the
population bomb, global cooling, and resource exhaustion," Bradley added. "This is certainly an embarrassment to Al Gore, who
presented this as one of the potential global warming catastrophes in his recent propaganda film."

23
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

NAC ANS - #1 – THEORY WRONG

Global warming won’t lead to ice age – incorrect models


WEAVER AND HILLAIRE- MARCEL 2004 [Andrew – prof @ School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
@ University of Victoria and C. – researcher @ GEOTOP @ Univ. de Quebec a Montreal, “Global warming
and the next ice age”, SCIENCE, April 16, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/304/5669/400 /
Chinikamwala]
It is certainly true that if the AMO were to become inactive, substantial short-term cooling would result in
western Europe, especially during the winter. However, it is important to emphasize that not a single coupled
model assessed by the 2001 IPCC Working Group I on Climate Change Science (4) predicted a collapse in
the AMO during the 21st century. Even in those models where the AMO was found to weaken during the
21st century, there would still be warming over Europe due to the radiative forcing associated with increased
levels of greenhouse gases.
Models that eventually lead to a collapse of the AMO under global warming conditions typically fall into two
categories: (i) flux-adjusted coupled general circulation models, and (ii) intermediate-complexity models
with zonally averaged ocean components. Both suites of models are known to be more sensitive to
freshwater perturbations. In the first class of models, a small perturbation away from the present climate
leads to large systematic errors in the salinity fields (as large flux adjustments are applied) that then build up
to cause dramatic AMO transitions. In the second class of models, the convection and sinking of water
masses are coupled (there is no horizontal structure). In contrast, newer non-flux-adjusted models find a
more stable AMO under future conditions of climate change (11, 13, 14).
Even the recent observations of freshening in the North Atlantic (15) (a reduction of salinity due to the
addition of freshwater) appear to be consistent with the projections of perhaps the most sophisticated non-
flux-adjusted model (11). Ironically, this model suggests that such freshening is associated with an increased
AMO (16). This same model proposes that it is only Labrador Sea Water formation that is susceptible to
collapse in response to global warming.
In light of the paleoclimate record and our understanding of the contemporary climate system, it is safe to
say that global warming will not lead to the onset of a new ice age. These same records suggest that it is
highly unlikely that global warming will lead to a widespread collapse of the AMO--despite the appealing
possibility raised in two recent studies (18, 19)--although it is possible that deep convection in the Labrador
Sea will cease. Such an event would have much more minor consequences on the climate downstream over
Europe.

24
SDI 2008 KMT
Warming Good – Ice Age

NAC ANS - #1 – THEORY WRONG

WARMING CANNOT CAUSE ICE AGES—THE NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT IS NOT A KEY
REGULATOR
MARSH 2008 [George, retired physicist @ Argonne National Laboratory and former consultant to
the Dept of Defense, “The Coming of a New Ice Age”,
http://www.winningreen.com/site/epage/59549_621.htm / ttate
There has been much speculation in both the scientific and popular literature that increased warming as a
consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions could lead to an increased flow of fresh water into
the north Atlantic that would shut down the thermohaline circulation, known alternately as the meridional
overturning circulation or the Atlantic heat conveyor [21]. This in turn it is argued, could initiate a new ice
age in Europe. There are two major misconceptions behind such speculation: First, the Gulf Stream is not
responsible for the transport of most of the heat that gives Europe its mild climate [22]; and while the shut
down of the thermohaline circulation does appear to play an important role in the dramatic drop in
temperature due to Heinrich and Dansgaard- Oeschger events [23], such shutdowns can only occur during
an ice age. Indeed, Broecker [24], who first linked the thermohaline circulation to the ice ages, now
discounts the fear that a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation could trigger an ice age. He has pointed
out that for that scenario to work feedback amplification from extensive sea ice is required [25]. The
possibility that global warming could trigger an ice age through shutdown of the thermohaline circulation
may therefore be discounted.

25
SDI 2008 KMT
Global Warming Good - Ice Age

GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE – 2AC


FIRST, ICE AGE NOT COMING NOW – ICE CAPS MELTING FASTER THAN EVER
CTV 2008 [“North Pole ice may completely melt away this summer, June 27,
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080627/iceless_north_080627/20080627?hub=CTVNew
sAt11 / ttate]
For the first time in modern history, the North Pole may be iceless this summer. Scientists say it's an even bet that
sea ice in the region will completely disappear in the next few months, perhaps as soon as August.
Ice at the North Pole quickly and significantly melted away last year, and that may be causing further melting this
summer. Scientists say the disappearance of long-term and thicker ice formed over the years has disappeared. Now,
most of the ice that's left is seasonal ice, which melts away much more quickly during warm weather.
"This year there is a lot of young ice. There's always some, but this year there's a lot," Andy Mahoney, a researcher
at the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center, told CTV.ca.
Satellite observations indicate the ice remaining at the poles is melting faster than last year's rate, which was
already a record year for Arctic ice loss. Scientists say whether or not the ice melts completely, this year's northern melt is yet another example of the impact that
global warming is having on the planet's environment.
"There were some people who were saying last year was a rogue year. If the same thing happens again a lot more people are going to be persuaded about the consequences
of global warming," Mahoney said.

AND, GLOBAL WARMING WILL LEAD TO AN ICE AGE – 5 YEAR TIMEFRAME


CORUNNA 2008 [Dr. J.C., “Next ice age could be closing in”, SARNIA OBSERVOR, lexis/ttate]
Intense global warming has increased temperatures in the Gulf Stream and increased heat transfer into the Arctic
Ocean. Intense global warming has also greatly increased atmospheric heat transfer into the Arctic.
Results from new and improved measurements have shown surprised scientists that enormous amounts of heat are being transferred into the
Arctic. The heat is melting the ice in the Arctic Ocean and this will soon result in several months of open water
there.
Currently, the Arctic Ocean is covered by ice. There can be little water evaporation so the lands surrounding the
Arctic Ocean are deserts (four to eight inches of precipitation per annum). Arctic winds are like northeast trades blowing from the pole. With open ocean,
evaporation will increase greatly and produce huge snowfalls that will extend far to the south.
Currently, insolation (solar heating) on Arctic land masses is barely sufficient to melt the winter's snowfall.
With lake-effect snows (ocean-effect snows), there is no possibility of being able to melt the accumulated winter
snowfall in the Arctic.
Instant ice age.
With lakes and swamps covered by ice and snow all year, there is no production of carbon dioxide and methane to effect global warming, so the ice age continues.
Glaciations are probably terminated by the heat-caused release of methane from the methane hydrate beds on the continental slopes when sea levels drop more than 150
metres because of water locked up in the continental ice sheets.
It is known that at least one of the recent ice ages was generated by an open (ice-free) Arctic Ocean.
Because of lag time between generating greenhouse gases and their effects, we cannot reverse global warming in time to ward off this next ice age.
It is estimated now that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in September (month for warmest ocean water) by the
year 2013.
The irony of the recent intense global warming is that it is accelerating the advent of the next ice age.
It could begin in five years; maybe less.

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GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE – 2AC
AND, WARMING WON’T STAVE OFF THE NEXT ICE AGE
WORLD NET DAILY 2007 [“Study finds CO2 didn’t end ice age”, September 29,
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=57895 / ttate]
A new peer-reviewed scientific study counters a major premise of global warming theory, concluding carbon
dioxide did not end the last ice age. The study, led by University of Southern California geologist Lowell Stott, concluded deep-sea
temperatures rose 1,300 years before the rise in atmospheric CO2, which would rule out the greenhouse gas as the
main agent of the meltdown.
"There has been this continual reference to the correspondence between CO2 and climate change as reflected in ice
core records as justification for the role of CO2 in climate change," said Stott. "You can no longer argue that CO2 alone caused the
end of the ice ages."Another new study published in Science refutes the "Hockey Stick" temperature graph, used by man-made global warming theorists such as
former Vice President Al Gore to argue for a recent spike in average global temperature after centuries of relative stability. Stott's new study suggests the rise in greenhouse
gas likely was a result of warming. It may have accelerated the meltdown, he says, but was not its main cause.

AND, PREFER OUR EVIDENCE – BASED ON RELIABLE AGGREGATE DATA OVER THE NEG’S
SMALL SAMPLE SIZE
REVKIN, environment reporter, 2008 [Andrew C., “Skeptics on human climate impact seize on cold spell,
NEW YORK TIMES, March 02, lexis/ttate]
The world has seen some extraordinary winter conditions in both hemispheres over the past year: snow in Johannesburg last
June and in Baghdad in January, Arctic sea ice returning with a vengeance after a record retreat last summer, paralyzing blizzards in China, and a sharp drop in the globe’s average temperature. It is
no wonder that some scientists, opinion writers, political operatives and other people who challenge warnings about dangerous human-caused global warming have jumped on this as a teachable
moment. “Earth’s ‘Fever’ Breaks: Global COOLING Currently Under Way,” read a blog post and news release on Wednesday from Marc Morano, the communications director for the Republican
minority on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. So what is happening? According to a host of climate experts, including some who
question the extent and risks of global warming, it is mostly good old-fashioned weather, along with a cold kick from the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is in its La Niña
phase for a few more months, a year after it was in the opposite warm El Niño pattern. If anything else is afoot — like some cooling related to sunspot cycles or slow shifts in ocean and
there is no way
atmospheric patterns that can influence temperatures — an array of scientists who have staked out differing positions on the overall threat from global warming agree that
to pinpoint whether such a new force is at work. Many scientists also say that the cool spell in no way undermines the
enormous body of evidence pointing to a warming world with disrupted weather patterns, less ice and rising seas should heat-trapping greenhouse
gases from burning fossil fuels and forests continue to accumulate in the air. “The current downturn is not very unusual,” said Carl Mears, a scientist
that has been using satellite data to track global temperature and
at Remote Sensing Systems, a private research group in Santa Rosa, Calif.,
whose findings have been held out as reliable by a variety of climate experts. He pointed to similar drops in 1988, 1991-92,
and 1998, but with a long-term warming trend clear nonetheless. “Temperatures are very likely to recover after the La Niña event is over,” he said. Mr.
Morano, in an e-mail message, was undaunted, saying turnabout is fair play: “Fair is fair. Noting (not hyping) an unusually harsh global winter is merely pointing out the obvious. Dissenters of a
man-made ‘climate crisis’ are using the reality of this record-breaking winter to expose the silly warming alarmism that the news media and some scientists have been ceaselessly promoting for
decades.” More clucking about the cold is likely over the next several days. The Heartland Institute, a public policy research group in Chicago opposed to regulatory
approaches to environmental problems, is holding a conference in Times Square on Monday and Tuesday aimed at exploring questions about the cause and dangers of climate change. The event
will convene an array of scientists, economists, statisticians and libertarian commentators holding a dizzying range of views on the changing climate — from those who see a human influence but
think it is not dangerous, to others who say global warming is a hoax, the sun’s fault or beneficial. Many attendees say it is the dawn of a new paradigm. But many climate scientists
and environmental campaigners say it is the skeptics’ last stand. Michael E. Schlesinger, an atmospheric scientist at the University of
Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, said that any focus on the last few months or years as evidence undermining the established theory that
accumulating greenhouse gases are making the world warmer was, at best, a waste of time and, at worst, a harmful
distraction. Discerning a human influence on climate, he said, “involves finding a signal in a noisy background.” He added, “The only way to do this within our noisy climate system is to
average over a sufficient number of years that the noise is greatly diminished, thereby revealing the signal. This means that one cannot look at any single year and know
whether what one is seeing is the signal or the noise or both the signal and the noise.” The shifts in the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic
(where ice has retreated significantly in recent summers) and Antarctic (where the area of floating sea ice has grown lately) are similarly hard to attribute to particular influences. Interviews and e-
mail exchanges with half a dozen polar climate and ice experts last week produced a rough consensus: Even with the extensive refreezing of Arctic waters in the deep chill of the sunless boreal
winter, the fresh-formed ice remains far thinner than the yards-thick, years-old ice that dominated the region until the 1990s. That means the odds of having vast stretches of open water next
“Climate skeptics typically take a few small pieces of the puzzle to debunk global warming,
summer remain high, many Arctic experts said.
and ignore the whole picture that the larger science community sees by looking at all the pieces,” said Ignatius G. Rigor, a climate scientist at
the Polar Science Center of the University of Washington in Seattle. He said the argument for a growing human influence on climate laid out in last year’s reports from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, or I.P.C.C., was supported by evidence from many fields. “I will admit that we do not have all the pieces,” Dr. Rigor said, “but as the I.P.C.C. reports, the preponderance of
evidence suggests that global warming is real.” As for the Arctic, he said, “Yes, this year’s winter ice extent is higher than last year’s, but it is still lower
than the long-term mean.” Dr. Rigor said next summer’s ice retreat, despite the regrowth of thin fresh-formed ice now, could still surpass last year’s, when nearly all of the Arctic
Ocean between Alaska and Siberia was open water.

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GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE – 2AC

AND, INDEPENDENTLY, OCEAN WARMING AND NAC SHUTDOWN  MASSIVE DIE-OFF OF


PHYTOPLANKTON
SCIENCE DAILY 2005 [“Atlantic Current Shutdown Could Disrupt Ocean Food Chain”, May 13,
http://www.sciencedaily.comreleases/2005/04/050412213152.htm / Hayes]
If increased precipitation and sea surface heating from global warming disrupts the Atlantic Conveyer current – as some
scientists predict – the effect on the ocean food chain in the Atlantic and other oceans could be severe, according to a new study just
published in Nature.
global productivity of phytoplankton could decrease by as much as 20 percent and in some areas,
In a worst case scenario,
such as the North Atlantic, the loss could hit 50 percent. The study was conducted by Andreas Schmittner, an assistant professor in the College
of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University.
In his sophisticated computer model, Schmittner does not predict that the Atlantic Conveyer current, which drags warm water from the southern tropics into the North
Atlantic and warms Europe, will be disrupted. Rather, his study is one of the first to examine what would happen to the ocean food chain if such a disruption did take place.
"Phytoplankton are the basis of the entire marine food web," Schmittner said. "They ultimately affect everything from
zooplankton to the larger fish that people consume."
"When the Atlantic Conveyer current works, the dead plankton sink to the bottom and are replaced at the surface with nutrient-rich water that encourages further
production," Schmittner said. "When the current is disrupted, and the mixing slows, that production also is disrupted."
Atlantic Conveyer current isn't just idle speculation. A growing body of evidence suggests that it switched on and off 20 to 25
The shutdown of the
times during the last ice age.
Schmittner said scientists also have examined ice cores from Greenland and measured isotopes that show rapid temperature changes, which coincide with changes in ocean
nutrient concentrations measured in deep-sea sediment cores.
"One full oscillation of these switches took 1,500 years," Schmittner said, "but the individual transitions happened surprisingly fast. The climate went from a cold state to a
warm state in as little as 20 to 50 years. Surface temperatures in Greenland increased 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit and water temperatures increased 10 to 20 degrees."

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1AR – WARMING  ICE AGE

WARMING  ICE AGE WITHIN A DECADE


GAGOSIAN 2003 [Dr. Robert B, pres and dir of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, “Abrubt climate
change: should we be worried?”, Prepared for a panel @ World Economic Forum, January 27,
http://www.whoi.edu/home/about/whatsnew_abruptclimate.html / ttate]
Global warming could actually lead to a big chill in some parts of the world. If the atmosphere continues to warm,
it could soon trigger a dramatic and abrupt cooling throughout the North Atlantic region -- where, not incidentally,
some 60 percent of the world's economy is based. When I say "dramatic," I mean: Average winter temperatures
could drop by 5 degrees Fahrenheit over much of the United States, and by 10 degrees in the northeastern United
States and in Europe. That's enough to send mountain glaciers advancing down from the Alps. To freeze rivers and
harbors and bind North Atlantic shipping lanes in ice. To disrupt the operation of ground and air transportation. To
cause energy needs to soar exponentially. To force wholesale changes in agricultural practices and fisheries. To
change the way we feed our populations. In short, the world, and the world economy, would be drastically
different. And when I say "abrupt," I mean: These changes could happen within a decade, and they could persist
for hundreds of years. You could see the changes in your lifetime, and your grandchildren's grandchildren will still
be confronting them. And when I say "soon," I mean: In just the past year, we have seen ominous signs that we
may be headed toward a potentially dangerous threshold. If we cross it, Earth's climate could switch gears and
jump very rapidly -- not gradually -- into a completely different mode of operation.

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EXTS – NO ICE AGE COMING NOW

NO NATURAL ICE AGE DUE FOR 70,000 YEARS


BERGER AND LOUTRE 2002 [Andre and MF, professors @ Universite catholique de Louvain, “An
exceptionally long interglacial ahead?”, SCIENCE, August, lexis/ttate]
When paleoclimatologists gathered in 1972 to discuss how and when the present warm period would end (1), a slide into the next glacial seemed
imminent. But more recent studies point toward a different future: a long interglacial that may last another 50,000
years. An interglacial is an uninterrupted warm interval during which global climate reaches at least the preindustrial level of warmth. Based on geological records
available in 1972, the last two interglacials (including the Eemian, ~125,000 years ago) were believed to have lasted about 10,000 years. This is about the length of the
current warm interval--the Holocene--to date. Assuming a similar duration for all interglacials, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that the present-day warm epoch will
terminate relatively soon if man does not intervene" (1, p. 267). Some assumptions made 30 years ago have since been questioned. Past
interglacials may have been longer than originally assumed (2). Some, including marine isotope stage 11 (MIS-11, 400,000 years ago), may have been warmer than at
even without human perturbation,
present (3). We are also increasingly aware of the intensification of the greenhouse effect by human activities (4). But
future climate may not develop as in past interglacials (5) because the forcings and mechanisms that produced
these earlier warm periods may have been quite different from today's. Most early attempts to predict future climate at the geological
time scale (6, 7) prolonged the cooling that started at the peak of the Holocene some 6000 years ago, predicting a cold interval in about 25,000 years and a glaciation in
about 55,000 years. These projections were based on statistical rules or simple models that did not include any CO2 forcing. They thus implicitly assumed a value equal to
the average of the last glacial-interglacial cycles [~225 parts per million by volume (ppmv) (8)]. But some studies disagreed with these projections. With a simple ice-sheet
model, Oerlemans and Van der Veen (9) predicted a long interglacial lasting another 50,000 years, followed by a first glacial maximum in about 65,000 years. Ledley also
an ice age is unlikely to begin in the next 70,000 years (10), based on the relation between the observed rate
stated that
of change of ice volume and the summer solstice radiation. Other studies were more oriented toward modeling, including the possible effects
of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the dynamics of the ice-age cycles. For example, according to Saltzman et al. (11) an increase in atmospheric CO2, if maintained over a
long period of time, could trigger the climatic system into a stable regime with small ice sheets, if any, in the Northern Hemisphere. Loutre (12) also showed that a CO2
concentration of 710 ppmv, returning to a present-day value within 5000 years, could lead to a collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a few thousand years.On a
geological time scale, climate cycles are believed to be driven by changes in insolation (solar radiation received at the top of the
atmosphere) as a result of variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun. Over the next 100,000 years, the amplitude of insolation variations will be small
(see the figure), much smaller than during the Eemian. For example, at 65ºN in June, insolation will vary by less than 25 Wm-2 over the next 25,000 years, compared with
110 Wm-2 between 125,000 and 115,000 years ago. From the standpoint of insolation, the Eemian can hardly be taken as an analog for the next millennia, as is often
assumed. The small amplitude of future insolation variations is exceptional. One of the few past analogs (13) occurred at about 400,000 years before the present,
overlapping part of MIS-11. Then and now, very low eccentricity values coincided with the minima of the 400,000-year eccentricity cycle. Eccentricity will reach almost
zero within the next 25,000 years, damping the variations of precession considerably.

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EXTS – NO ICE AGE COMING NOW

MOST STUDIES CONCLUDE NO NATURAL ICE AGE COMING FOR 10,000 YEARS
REVKIN, environment reporter, 2008 [Andrew C., “Skeptics on human climate impact seize on cold spell,
NEW YORK TIMES, March 02, lexis/ttate]
Despite the recent trend toward global warming, scientists have long wondered whether the Earth is nearing a new
ice age, an end to the 12,000-year temperate spell in which civilizations arose. Some have said such a transition is
overdue, given that each of the three temperate intervals that immediately preceded this current one lasted only
about 10,000 years. But now, in an eagerly awaited study, a group of climate and ice experts say they have new
evidence that Earth is not even halfway through the current warm era. The evidence comes from the oldest layers
of Antarctic ice ever sampled. Some scientists earlier proposed similar hypotheses, basing them on the
configuration of Earth's orbit, which seems to set the metronome that ice ages dance to. Temperature patterns
deciphered in sea sediments in recent years backed the theory. But experts say the new ice data are by far the
strongest corroborating evidence, revealing many similarities between today's atmospheric and temperature
patterns and those of a warm interval, with a duration of 28,000 years, that reached its peak 430,000 years ago. The
findings are described Thursday in the journal Nature in a report by the European Project for Ice Coring in
Antarctica. The evidence comes from a shaft of ice extracted over five grueling years from Antarctica's deep-
frozen innards, composed of thousands of ice layers formed as each year's snowfall was compressed over time. The
deepest ice retrieved so far comes from 10,000 feet deep and dates back 740,000 years. The relative abundance of
certain forms of hydrogen in the ice reflects past air temperatures. Many ice cores have been cut from various
glaciers and ice sheets around the world, but until now none have gone back beyond 420,000 years. "It's very
exciting to see ice that fell as snow three-quarters of a million years ago," said Dr. Eric Wolff, an author of the
paper and ice core expert with the British Antarctic Survey.

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EXTS – GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE


WARMING  ICE AGE
ABC NEWS 2007 [“New northern ice age could send refugees to Australia”,
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/05/2052408.htm / ttate]
ANU paleoclimatologist Timothy Barrows and his fellow researchers used a new dating technique that measures the radioactive
elements in some rocks. Dr Barrows explains that Europe is at risk of a new ice age as a result of global warming. "There are
some fears that warming in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly around the Greenland ice sheet, might cause quite a bit of
meltwater to come into the North Atlantic Ocean," he said. "That might change the salinity of the water there and
stop what's called 'the great conveyor belt of the oceans' forming deep water that releases an enormous amount of heat
that keeps Europe out of an ice age, essentially. "So if global warming does stop this circulation from occurring,
then we could potentially have a new ice age in Europe." Dr Barrows says this effect is similar to what happened
about 12,900 years ago, when the earth experienced rapid cooling. "There was a collapse of an ice sheet over North America, which slowed this circulation down, and caused a
mini ice age for 1,500 years in Europe," he said. He says a new ice age in the Northern Hemisphere is not far off. "You'd begin to feel the
effects almost immediately and certainly within a century," he said.

WARMING  ICE AGE – WEAKENS THE GULF STREAM


THE GUARDIAN 2003 [“Will global warming trigger a new ice age?”, November 13, lexis/ttate]
could the rapidly accelerating warming that we are experiencing actually hasten the onset of a new ice age? A
Is this really true, or
growing body of evidence suggests that, at least for the UK and western Europe, there is a serious risk of this happening - and soon.
The problem lies with the ocean current known as the Gulf Stream, which bathes the UK and north-west Europe in warm
water carried northwards from the Caribbean. It is the Gulf Stream, and associated currents, that allow strawberries to thrive along the Norwegian coast, while at
comparable latitudes in Greenland glaciers wind their way right down to sea level. The same currents permit palms to flourish in Cornwall and the Hebrides, whereas across the ocean in Labrador,
even temperate vegetation struggles to survive. Without the Gulf Stream, temperatures in the UK and north-west Europe would be five degrees centigrade or so cooler, with bitter winters at least as
fierce as those of the so-called Little Ice Age in the 17th to 19th centuries.
The Gulf Stream is part of a more complex system of currents known by a number of different names, of which the rather cumbersome North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Namoc)
is probably the most apt. This incorporates not only the Gulf Stream but also the cold return currents that convey water southwards again. As it approaches the Arctic, the Gulf Stream loses heat and
part of it heads back to warmer climes along the coast of Greenland and eastern Canada in the form of the cold, iceberg-laden current responsible for the loss of the Titanic. Much, however,
overturns - cooling and sinking beneath the Nordic seas between Norway and Greenland, before heading south again deep below the surface.
In the past, the slowing of the Gulf Stream has been intimately linked with dramatic regional cooling. Just 10,000
years ago, during a climatic cold snap known as the Younger Dryas, the current was severely weakened, causing northern European
temperatures to fall by as much as 10 degrees. Ten thousand years before that, at the height of the last ice age, when most of the UK was reduced to a frozen
wasteland, the Gulf Stream had just two-thirds of the strength it has now.
What's worrying is that for some years now, global climate models have been predicting a future weakening of the Gulf Stream as a
consequence of global warming. Such models visualise the disruption of the Namoc, including the Gulf Stream, as a result of large-scale
melting of Arctic ice and the consequent pouring of huge volumes of fresh water into the North Atlantic, in a century or
two. New data suggest, however, that we may not have to wait centuries, and in fact the whole process may be happening already.
So that the warm, saline surface waters of the Gulf Stream can continue to push northwards, there must be a comparable,
deep return current of cold, dense water from the Nordic seas. Disturbingly, this return current seems to have been slowing
since the middle of the last century. Bogi Hansen at the Faroese fisheries laboratory, and colleagues in Scotland and Norway, have been monitoring the deep
outflow of cold water from the Nordic seas as it passes over the submarine Greenland-Scotland ridge that straddles the North Atlantic at this point. Their results show that
the outflow has fallen by 20% since 1950, which suggests a comparable reduced inflow from the Gulf Stream.
Although there is as yet no direct substantiation of this, and his colleagues point to reports of the cooling and freshening of the Norwegian Sea and to temperatures that are already falling in parts of
the region as possible evidence of contemporary Gulf Stream weakening.
It also seems that it is not only the intensity of the outflow of cold water that is changing. Bob Dickson of the Centre for Environment, Fisheries, and Aquaculture Science at Lowestoft, and
colleagues, have reported a sustained and widespread freshening of returning deep waters south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge, which appears to have been going on for the past three or four
decades. Already the freshening is extending along the North American eastern seaboard towards the equator, in the so-called Deep Western Boundary current.
One of the scariest aspects of the current dramatic changes occurring in the system of North Atlantic currents is that the deep,
southward-flowing limb of the Namoc can be thought of as representing the headwaters of the worldwide system of ocean
currents known as the Global Thermohaline Circulation. The possibility exists, therefore, that a disruption of the Atlantic
currents might have implications far beyond a colder UK and north-west Europe, perhaps bringing dramatic climatic changes
to the entire planet.

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EXTS – WARMING  ICE AGE

WARMING  RAPID ICE AGE BY ENDING THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION – COLLAPSES


CIVILIZATION
HARTMANN 2004 [Thom, PhD from Brantridge University, “How Global Warming may cause the next ice
age”, THE LAST HOURS OF ANCIENT SUNLIGHT, updated edition, January 30,
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0130-11.htm/hayes]
Research shows that a new ice age is not as unlikely as previously thought. Even worse, there could be as little as two to three years'
warning. While global warming is being officially ignored by the political arm of the Bush administration, and Al Gore's recent conference on the topic during one of the
the Pentagon are taking a new look at the
coldest days of recent years provided joke fodder for conservative talk show hosts, the citizens of Europe and
greatest danger such climate change could produce for the northern hemisphere -- a sudden shift into a new ice age. What they're
finding is not at all comforting. In quick summary, if enough cold, fresh water coming from the melting polar ice caps and the melting
glaciers of Greenland flows into the northern Atlantic, it will shut down the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe and northeastern
North America warm. The worst-case scenario would be a full-blown return of the last ice age -- in a period as short as 2 to 3
years from its onset -- and the mid-case scenario would be a period like the "little ice age" of a few centuries ago that disrupted worldwide weather patterns
leading to extremely harsh winters, droughts, worldwide desertification, crop failures, and wars around the world. Here's how it works. If you look at a globe, you'll see
that the latitude of much of Europe and Scandinavia is the same as that of Alaska and permafrost-locked parts of northern Canada and central Siberia. Yet Europe has a
climate more similar to that of the United States than northern Canada or Siberia. Why? It turns out that our warmth is the result of ocean currents that bring warm surface
water up from the equator into northern regions that would otherwise be so cold that even in summer they'd be covered with ice. The current of greatest concern is often
The Great Conveyor Belt, while shaped by the Coriolis effect of the
referred to as "The Great Conveyor Belt," which includes what we call the Gulf Stream.
Earth's rotation, is mostly driven by the greater force created by differences in water temperatures and salinity. The North Atlantic Ocean is
saltier and colder than the Pacific, the result of it being so much smaller and locked into place by the Northern and Southern American Hemispheres on the west and Europe
and Africa on the east. As a result, the warm water of the Great Conveyor Belt evaporates out of the North Atlantic leaving behind saltier waters, and the cold continental
winds off the northern parts of North America cool the waters. Salty, cool waters settle to the bottom of the sea, most at a point a few hundred kilometers south of the
southern tip of Greenland, producing a whirlpool of falling water that's 5 to 10 miles across. While the whirlpool rarely breaks the surface, during certain times of year it
does produce an indentation and current in the ocean that can tilt ships and be seen from space (and may be what we see on the maps of ancient mariners). This falling
column of cold, salt-laden water pours itself to the bottom of the Atlantic, where it forms an undersea river forty times larger than all the rivers on land combined, flowing
south down to and around the southern tip of Africa, where it finally reaches the Pacific. Amazingly, the water is so deep and so dense (because of its cold and salinity) that
it often doesn't surface in the Pacific for as much as a thousand years after it first sank in the North Atlantic off the coast of Greenland. The out-flowing undersea river of
cold, salty water makes the level of the Atlantic slightly lower than that of the Pacific, drawing in a strong surface current of warm, fresher water from the Pacific to replace
the outflow of the undersea river. This warmer, fresher water slides up through the South Atlantic, loops around North America where it's known as the Gulf Stream, and
ends up off the coast of Europe. By the time it arrives near Greenland, it has cooled off and evaporated enough water to become cold and salty and sink to the ocean floor,
providing a continuous feed for that deep-sea river flowing to the Pacific. These two flows -- warm, fresher water in from the Pacific, which then grows salty and cools and
the Great Conveyor Belt is the only thing between
sinks to form an exiting deep sea river -- are known as the Great Conveyor Belt. Amazingly,
comfortable summers and a permanent ice age for Europe and the eastern coast of North America. Much of this science was unknown as recently as
twenty years ago. Then an international group of scientists went to Greenland and used newly developed drilling and sensing equipment to drill into some of the world's
most ancient accessible glaciers. Their instruments were so sensitive that when they analyzed the ice core samples they brought up, they were able to look at individual years
of snow. The results were shocking. Prior to the last decades, it was thought that the periods between glaciations and warmer times in North America, Europe, and North
Asia were gradual. We knew from the fossil record that the Great Ice Age period began a few million years ago, and during those years there were times where for hundreds
or thousands of years North America, Europe, and Siberia were covered with thick sheets of ice year-round. In between these icy times, there were periods when the glaciers
thawed, bare land was exposed, forests grew, and land animals (including early humans) moved into these northern regions. Most scientists figured the transition time from
icy to warm was gradual, lasting dozens to hundreds of years, and nobody was sure exactly what had caused it. (Variations in solar radiation were suspected, as were
volcanic activity, along with early theories about the Great Conveyor Belt, which, until recently, was a poorly understood phenomenon.) Looking at the ice cores, however,
scientists were shocked to discover that the transitions from ice age-like weather to contemporary-type weather
usually took only two or three years. Something was flipping the weather of the planet back and forth with a rapidity that was startling. It turns out that
the ice age versus temperate weather patterns weren't part of a smooth and linear process, like a dimmer slider for an overhead light bulb. They are part of a delicately
balanced teeter-totter, which can exist in one state or the other, but transits through the middle stage almost overnight. They more resemble a light switch, which is off as you
gradually and slowly lift it, until it hits a mid-point threshold or "breakover point" where suddenly the state is flipped from off to on and the light comes on. It appears that
small (less that .1 percent) variations in solar energy happen in roughly 1500-year cycles. This cycle, for example, is what brought us the "Little Ice Age" that started around
the year 1400 and dramatically cooled North America and Europe (we're now in the warming phase, recovering from that). When the ice in the Arctic Ocean is frozen solid
and locked up, and the glaciers on Greenland are relatively stable, this variation warms and cools the Earth in a very small way, but doesn't affect the operation of the Great
Conveyor Belt that brings moderating warm water into the North Atlantic. In millennia past, however, before the Arctic totally froze and locked up, and before some critical
threshold amount of fresh water was locked up in the Greenland and other glaciers, these 1500-year variations in solar energy didn't just slightly warm up or cool down the
weather for the land masses bracketing the North Atlantic. They flipped on and off periods of total glaciation and periods of temperate weather. And these changes came
suddenly. For early humans living in Europe 30,000 years ago - when the cave paintings in France were produced -- the weather would be pretty much like it is today for
well over a thousand years, giving people a chance to build culture to the point where they could produce art and reach across large territories. And then a particularly hard
winter would hit. The spring would come late, and summer would never seem to really arrive, with the winter snows appearing as early as September. The

[CONTINUED….NO TEXT DELETED]

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EXTS – WARMING  ICE AGE


[CONTINUED FROM ABOVE…NO TEXT DELETED]
next winter would be brutally cold, and the next spring didn't happen at all, with above-freezing temperatures only being reached for a few days during August and the snow
never completely melting. After that, the summer never returned: for 1500 years the snow simply accumulated and accumulated, deeper and deeper, as the continent came to
be covered with glaciers and humans either fled or died out. (Neanderthals, who dominated Europe until the end of these cycles, appear to have been better adapted to cold
weather than Homo sapiens.) What brought on this sudden "disappearance of summer" period was that the warm-water currents of the Great Conveyor Belt had shut down.
Once the Gulf Stream was no longer flowing, it only took a year or three for the last of the residual heat held in the
North Atlantic Ocean to dissipate into the air over Europe, and then there was no more warmth to moderate the
northern latitudes. When the summer stopped in the north, the rains stopped around the equator: At the same time Europe was plunged into an Ice Age, the Middle
East and Africa were ravaged by drought and wind-driven firestorms. If the Great Conveyor Belt, which includes the Gulf Stream, were to stop
flowing today, the result would be sudden and dramatic. Winter would set in for the eastern half of North America and all
of Europe and Siberia, and never go away. Within three years, those regions would become uninhabitable and nearly
two billion humans would starve, freeze to death, or have to relocate. Civilization as we know it probably couldn't withstand the
impact of such a crushing blow. And, incredibly, the Great Conveyor Belt has hesitated a few times in the past decade. As William H. Calvin points out in
one of the best books available on this topic ("A Brain For All Seasons: human evolution & abrupt climate change"): "The abrupt cooling in the last warm period shows that
a flip can occur in situations much like the present one. What could possibly halt the salt-conveyor belt that brings tropical heat so much farther north and limits the
formation of ice sheets? Oceanographers are busy studying present-day failures of annual flushing, which give some perspective on the catastrophic failures of the past. In
the Labrador Sea, flushing failed during the 1970s, was strong again by 1990, and is now declining. In the Greenland Sea over the 1980s salt sinking declined by 80 percent.
Obviously, local failures can occur without catastrophe -- it's a question of how often and how widespread the failures are -- but the present state of decline is not very
Most scientists involved in research on this topic agree that the culprit is global warming, melting the icebergs on
reassuring."
When a critical threshold is reached,
Greenland and the Arctic icepack and thus flushing cold, fresh water down into the Greenland Sea from the north.
the climate will suddenly switch to an ice age that could last minimally 700 or so years, and maximally over 100,000 years. And when might that
threshold be reached? Nobody knows -- the action of the Great Conveyor Belt in defining ice ages was discovered only in the last decade. Preliminary computer models and
scientists willing to speculate suggest the switch could flip as early as next year, or it may be generations from now. It may be wobbling right now, producing the extremes
of weather we've seen in the past few years. What's almost certain is that if nothing is done about global warming, it will happen
sooner rather than later.

WARMING  ICE AGE


HIRN 2008 [expert author for Ezine Articles, “How Global Warming could cause an Ice Age”, EZINE
ARTICLES, March 19, http://ezinearticles.com/?How-Global-Warming-Could-Cause-An-Ice-
Age&id=1057279//Sui]
An Ice Age brought on by global warming was the scenario depicted in the movie THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW. While the science on which the movie based has been
called into question, there may be some merit in the theory that global warming could cause an Ice Age.
Why is Europe's climate comparatively milder than other places at the same latitude? Alaska and Greenland, both the same distance to the North Pole as Europe, are covered
with ice and permafrost while most of Europe is not.
The ocean currents called the
Gulf Stream bring warm waters up to Europe from the Caribbean. This water brings warmth to the
countries in its path. Cooler
water from Europe feeds back into the loop and causes the water to flow back to the
Caribbean in a continuous cycle.
The Gulf Stream has been significantly weakened in every major cooling event, including the last great Ice Age. In the past this weakening has been brought on by natural
events. In current times, global
warming brought on by human activities could be the cause of slowing or even stopping the Gulf
Stream. If this were to happen, the cold waters would stay in the area of Europe and the Northeastern US and could
mean an Ice Age for those regions.
If an Ice Age occurs, it will likely be due to the melting of polar ice. This will dump large quantities of cold, fresh
water into the ocean. It would disrupt the Gulf Stream and cause the cooling of many areas that now have milder
climates. The return flow of cold water from Greenland, which goes back to the Caribbean, has already showed a weakening over the last 50 years. There has
been a twenty percent decline in the amount of current flowing in this direction. It stands to reason that the warm
waters returning from the Caribbean have also decreased in volume. The change would not be gradual. This is a
phenomenon that takes place rather quickly. Perhaps it does not happen as fast as depicted in THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW. However, it could
happen within a few short years.

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A slowing or stoppage of the Gulf Stream would affect the entire earth. Observations have been made of current data and historical
information gleaned by studying the ocean and the lands around it. With all the information at hand, it appears that it is indeed possible
that global warming could bring about a modern Ice Age.

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EXTS – GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE

Global warming leads to cooler temperatures – freshening of Gulf Stream


Michaels, Senior Fellow in environmental studies, Is Global Warming Always Bad?, Cato Institute, 11/3/04,
[http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=2872], Chinikamwala
The problem lies with the ocean current known as the Gulf Stream, which bathes the UK and north-west Europe in warm water carried
northwards from the Caribbean. It is the Gulf Stream, and associated currents, that allow strawberries to thrive along the Norwegian coast, while at comparable latitudes in
Greenland glaciers wind their way right down to sea level. The same currents permit palms to flourish in Cornwall and the Hebrides, whereas across the ocean in Labrador,
Without the Gulf Stream, temperatures in the UK and north-west Europe would be
even temperate vegetation struggles to survive.
five degrees centigrade or so cooler, with bitter winters at least as fierce as those of the so-called Little Ice Age in the 17th to 19th centuries.
The Gulf Stream is part of a more complex system of currents known by a number of different names, of which the rather cumbersome North Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (Namoc) is probably the most apt. This incorporates not only the Gulf Stream but also the cold return currents that convey water southwards again.
As it approaches the Arctic, the Gulf Stream loses heat and part of it heads back to warmer climes along the coast
of Greenland and eastern Canada in the form of the cold, iceberg-laden current responsible for the loss of the Titanic. Much,
however, overturns - cooling and sinking beneath the Nordic seas between Norway and Greenland, before heading south
again deep below the surface.
In the past, the slowing of the Gulf Stream has been intimately linked with dramatic regional cooling. Just 10,000 years ago, during a climatic cold snap known as
the Younger Dryas, the current was severely weakened, causing northern European temperatures to fall by as much as 10
degrees. Ten thousand years before that, at the height of the last ice age, when most of the UK was reduced to a frozen wasteland, the Gulf Stream had just two-thirds of
the strength it has now.
global climate models have been predicting a future weakening of the Gulf Stream as
What's worrying is that for some years now,
a consequence of global warming. Such models visualise the disruption of the Namoc, including the Gulf Stream,
as a result of large-scale melting of Arctic ice and the consequent pouring of huge volumes of fresh water into the
North Atlantic, in a century or two. New data suggest, however, that we may not have to wait centuries, and in fact the whole process may be happening already.
So that the warm, saline surface waters of the Gulf Stream can continue to push northwards, there must be a
comparable, deep return current of cold, dense water from the Nordic seas. Disturbingly, this return current seems
to have been slowing since the middle of the last century. Bogi Hansen at the Faroese fisheries laboratory, and colleagues in Scotland and
Norway, have been monitoring the deep outflow of cold water from the Nordic seas as it passes over the submarine Greenland-Scotland ridge that straddles the North
Atlantic at this point. Their results show that the outflow has fallen by 20% since 1950, which suggests a comparable reduced
inflow from the Gulf Stream.
Although there is as yet no direct substantiation of this, and his colleagues point to reports of the cooling and freshening of the Norwegian Sea and to temperatures that are
already falling in parts of the region as possible evidence of contemporary Gulf Stream weakening.
It also seems that it is not only the intensity of the outflow of cold water that is changing. Bob Dickson of the Centre for Environment, Fisheries, and Aquaculture Science at
Lowestoft, and colleagues, have reported a
sustained and widespread freshening of returning deep waters south of the
Greenland-Scotland ridge, which appears to have been going on for the past three or four decades.
Already the freshening is extending along the North American eastern seaboard towards the equator, in the so-called Deep Western Boundary current.
One of the scariest aspects of the current dramatic changes occurring in the system of North Atlantic currents is that the deep, southward-flowing limb of the Namoc can be
a
thought of as representing the headwaters of the worldwide system of ocean currents known as the Global Thermohaline Circulation. The possibility exists, therefore, that
disruption of the Atlantic currents might have implications far beyond a colder UK and north-west Europe, perhaps
bringing dramatic climatic changes to the entire planet.

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EXTS – GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE

WARMING SHUTS DOWN CONVEYOR BELT


PEARCE, environmental consultant, 2007 [Fred, WITH SPEED AND VIOLENCE: WHY SCIENTISTS FEAR
TIPPING POINTS IN CLIMATE CHANGE, pages 145-147/ttate]
But the crux of the public debate on Broecker's ocean conveyor remains a very simple question: Could global warming shut the conveyor down?
Broecker seems rarely to have doubted it. And the claim has in recent years seemed almost to have a life of its own. This struck me most
strongly at a conference on "dangerous" climate change held at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, in Exeter in 2005. There I met Michael Schlesinger, of the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He is a sharp-suited guy sporting a pastiche of 1950S clothes and hairstyle. But if there were serious doubts in Exeter about
whether his style sense would ever come back into fashion, there was no doubt that his ideas about climate change had found their moment. For more than a decade,
Schlesinger has been making Broecker's case that a shutdown of the ocean conveyor could be closer than mainstream climate
modelers think. Some critics feel that he just doesn't know when to give up and move on. But he has stuck with it, criticizing the IPCC and its models for
systematically eliminating a range of quite possible doomsday scenarios from consideration. "The trouble with trying to reach a consensus is that all the interesting ideas get
eliminated," he said at the conference. Science by committee ends up throwing away the good stuff like the idea of the conveyor's shutting down. But in Exeter, Schlesinger
was back in vogue. He had been invited to present his model findings that a
global warming of just 3.6°F would melt the Greenland ice
sheet fast enough to swamp the ocean with freshwater and shut down the conveyor. The risk, he said, was
"unacceptably large." Although he had been saying much the same for a decade, he was now considered mainstream enough to be invited across the Atlantic to
expound his ideas at a conference organized by the British government. And he was no longer alone. Later in the day, Peter Challenor, of the British National Oceanography
Centre, in Southampton, said he had shortened his own odds about the likelihood of a conveyor shutdown from one in thirty to one in three. He guessed that a 3-degree
warming of Greenland would do it. Given how fast Greenland is currently warming, that seems a near certainty. But all this is models. What evidence is there on the ground
dangerous change is already afoot in the North Atlantic. And, whatever the skepticism about some
for the state of the conveyor? The truth is that
of Broecker's grander claims, the conveyor may already be in deep trouble. Since the mid-2000s, says Ruth Curry, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution, the waters of the far North Atlantic off Greenland-where Wadhams's chimneys deliver water to the ocean floor and maintain Broecker's conveyor-have become
decidedly fresher. In fact, much of the change happened back in the 1960s, when some 8 billion acre-feet of freshwater gushed out of the Arctic through the Fram Strait.
Oceanographers called the event the Great Salinity Anomaly. To this day, nobody is quite sure why it happened. It could have been ice breaking off the great Greenland ice
sheet, or sea ice caught up in unusual circulation patterns, or increased flow from the great Siberian rivers like the Ob and the Yenisey. Luckily, most of the freshwater
rapidly headed south into the North Atlantic proper. Only 3 billion acre-feet remained. Curry's studies of the phenomenon, published in Science in June 2005, concluded that
7 billion acre-feet would have been enough to "substantially reduce" the conveyor, and double that "could essentially shut it down." So it was a close call. With the region's
the conveyor remains on the critical list. Another single slug of
water still substantially fresher than it was at the start of the 1960s,
freshwater anytime soon could be disastrous. In the coming decades, some combination of increased rainfall, increased runoff from the land sur-
rounding the Arctic, and faster rates of ice melting could turn off the conveyor. And there would be no turning back, because models suggest that
it would not easily switch back on. "A shift in the ocean conveyor, once initiated, is essentially irreversible over a time period of many decades to
centuries," as Broecker's colleague Peter deMenocal puts it. "It would permanently alter the climatic norms for some of the most densely populated and highly
developed regions of the world." As I prepared to submit this book to the publisher, new research dramatically underlined the risks and fears
for the conveyor. Harry Bryden, of the National Oceanography Centre, had strung measuring buoys in a line across the Atlantic, from the Canary Islands to the
Bahamas, and found that the flow of water north from the Gulf Stream into the North Atlantic had faltered by 30 percent since the mid-I990S. Less warm water was going
north at the surface, and less cold water was coming back south along the ocean floor. This weakening of two critical features of the conveyor
was, so far as anyone knew, an unprecedented event. Probing further, Bryden found that the "deep water" from the Labrador Sea west of
Greenland still seemed to be flowing south. But the volume of deep water coming south from the Greenland Sea, the site of Wadhams's chimneys, had collapsed to half its
The implication was clear: the disappearing chimneys that Wadhams had watched with such despair were
former level.
indeed hobbling the ocean circulation. Broecker seemed on the verge of being proved right that the ocean conveyor
was at a threshold because of global warming.

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EXTS – GLOBAL WARMING  ICE AGE

WARMING LEADS TO AN INFLUX OF FRESH WATER – SHUTS DOWN THE NAC AND WILL
PLUNGE US INTO A CATASTROPHIC ICE AGE
INTELLIGENCER JOUNRAL 2008 [“Many confused about climate change”, July 02, lexis/keehun]
Intell, June 26) highlights the confusion many people feel about the climate experts talking global warming and
a possible ice age in the same breath. Actually, they are two sides of the same coin. Among major factors of
climate are the vast interconnected ocean currents. The Gulf Stream is part of this. These mighty currents
transfer tropical heat northward. Although London is as far north as the center of Hudson Bay, Canada, its
climate is far warmer in winter than St. Louis, over a 1,000 miles farther south. As these currents move
northward they cool and eventually sink and return south replaced by warmer water on the surface coming north.
Melting glaciers in the north - especially Greenland - are pouring vast amounts of fresh water into the ocean.
Fresh water is less dense than salt water. Too much fresh water may stop these ocean currents because fresh
water may keep the Gulf Stream, for example, from sinking and returning south. Thus, warmer water cannot
come north. The result would be a catastrophic chilling of Europe, the eastern United States and elsewhere, and
the Gulf Stream is only one such current. That is why those who warn of global warming also talk about the
possibility of an ice age. Paul Wragg, Denver

Gulf Stream can stop – history proves


RANDERSON, science correspondent, 2006 [“Sea Change: why global warming could Britain feeling the
cold”, THE GUARDIAN, October 27,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/oct/27/science.climatechange / Chinikamwala]
Scientists have uncovered more evidence for a dramatic weakening in the vast ocean current that gives Britain its relatively balmy climate by dragging warm water
northwards from the tropics. The slowdown, which climate modellers have predicted will follow global warming, has been confirmed by the most detailed study yet of
ocean flow in the Atlantic.
the data reveal that a part of the current, which is usually 60 times more powerful than the Amazon river, came to a
Most alarmingly,
temporary halt during November 2004.
The nightmare scenario of a shutdown in the meridional ocean current which drives the Gulf stream was dramatically portrayed in The Day After Tomorrow. The climate
disaster film had Europe and North America plunged into a new ice age practically overnight.
Although no scientist thinks the switch-off could happen that quickly, they do agree that even a weakening of the current over a few decades would have profound
consequences.
Warm water brought to Europe's shores raises the temperature by as much as 10C in some places and without it the
continent would be much colder and drier.
Researchers are not sure yet what to make of the 10-day hiatus. "We'd never seen anything like that before and we don't understand it. We didn't know it could happen," said
Harry Bryden, at the National Oceanography Centre, in Southampton, who presented the findings to a conference in Birmingham on rapid climate change.
Is it the first sign that the current is stuttering to a halt? "I want to know more before I say that," Professor Bryden said.
Lloyd Keigwin, a scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, in Massachusetts, in the US, described the temporary shutdown as "the most abrupt change in the
whole [climate] record".
He added: "It only lasted 10 days. But suppose it lasted 30 or 60 days, when do you ring up the prime minister and say
let's start stockpiling fuel? How can we rule out a longer one next year?"
Prof Bryden's group stunned climate researchers last year with data suggesting that the flow rate of the Atlantic circulation had dropped by
about 6m tonnes of water a second from 1957 to 1998. If the current remained that weak, he predicted, it would lead to a 1C drop in the UK in the
next decade. A complete shutdown would lead to a 4C-6C cooling over 20 years.
The study prompted the UK's Natural Environment Research Council to set up an array of 16 submerged stations spread across the Atlantic, from Florida to north Africa, to
measure flow rate and other variables at different depths. Data from these stations confirmed the slowdown in 1998 was not a "freak observation"- although the current does
seem to have picked up slightly since.

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EXTS – CONVEYOR BELT BRINKS

WE ARE ON THE BRINK – NEW RESEARCH PROVES PROBABILITY OF SHUTDOWN IS HIGH


SCIENCE DAILY 2005 [“Global warming could halt ocean circulation, with harmful results”, December 07,
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/12/051207180807.htm / ttate
"This is a dangerous, human-induced climate change," said Michael Schlesinger, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign. "The shutdown of the thermohaline circulation has been characterized as a high-consequence, low-probability event. Our
analysis, including the uncertainties in the problem, indicates it is a high-consequence, high-probability event." Schlesinger will present a talk
"Assessing the Risk of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation" on Dec. 8 at the United Nations Climate Control Conference in Montreal. He will discuss
recent work he and his colleagues performed on simulating and understanding the thermohaline circulation in the North
Atlantic Ocean. The thermohaline circulation is driven by differences in seawater density, caused by temperature and salinity. Like a great conveyor
belt, the circulation pattern moves warm surface water from the southern hemisphere toward the North Pole. Between Greenland and Norway, the water cools, sinks into the
carries a tremendous amount of heat northward, and plays a vital role
deep ocean, and begins flowing back to the south. "This movement
in maintaining the current climate," Schlesinger said. "If the thermohaline circulation shut down, the southern hemisphere would
become warmer and the northern hemisphere would become colder. The heavily populated regions of eastern North America and western Europe
would experience a significant shift in climate." Higher temperatures caused by global warming could add fresh water to the northern
North Atlantic by increasing the precipitation and by melting nearby sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet. This influx
of fresh water could reduce the surface salinity and density, leading to a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. "We
already have evidence dating back to 1965 that shows a drop in salinity around the North Atlantic," Schlesinger said. "The change is small, compared to what our model
needs to shut down the thermohaline, but we could be standing at the brink of an abrupt and irreversible climate change." To analyze
the problem, Schlesinger and his colleagues first used an uncoupled ocean general circulation model and a coupled atmosphere-ocean general
circulation model to simulate the present-day thermohaline circulation and explore how it would behave in response to the addition of fresh water. They then used
an extended, but simplified, model to represent the wide range of behavior of the thermohaline circulation. By combining the simple model with an economic model, they
could estimate the likelihood of a shutdown between now and 2205, both with and without the policy intervention of a carbon tax on fossil
fuels. The carbon tax started out at $10 per ton of carbon (about five cents per gallon of gasoline) and gradually increased. "We found that there is a 70 percent
likelihood of a thermohaline collapse, absent any climate policy," Schlesinger said. "Although this likelihood can be reduced by the policy
intervention, it still exceeds 25 percent even with maximal policy intervention." Because the risk of a thermohaline collapse is unacceptably large, Schlesinger said,
"measures over and above the policy intervention of a carbon tax -- such as carbon capture and sequestration -- should be given serious consideration." Collaborators on this
research are U. of I. research programmer Bin Li, Princeton University researchers Sergey Malyshev and Jianjun Yin, University of Michigan research scientist Natasha
Andronova, and Wesleyan University economics professor Gary Yohe.

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ICE AGE ANS – WARMING OUTWEIGHS

ERR AFF – CONFLICTING STUDIES MEANS IT IS BETTER TO DECREASE EMISSIONS


CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR 2004
[Peter N. Spotts, staff writer, “Ice age to warming - and back?”, May 18, lexis/ttate]
The Little Ice Age and "the 8,200-year event" are not exactly household terms. Once only a handful of climate
scientists puzzled over these episodes of abrupt climate change. Now, the topic is getting close scrutiny from the
Pentagon, the halls of Congress, and even Hollywood - where a disaster movie set for release in May depicts a
sudden deep freeze. One reason for all the interest? While policymakers have worried long and hard about global
warming, which might raise Earth's temperature 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C by century's end, a growing body of evidence
suggests natural forces could just as easily plunge Earth's average temperatures downward. In the past, the planet's
climate has changed 10 degrees in as little as 10 years. That may not sound like much. But the last time the planet
was 10 degrees colder, it was still in an ice age. "There's the very real potential of the climate system changing
dramatically and rapidly" in ways that lie outside modern human experience, says Mark Eakin, who heads the
paleoclimatology program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The possibility of a
sudden freeze doesn't mean mankind can relax efforts to curb global warming, many scientists warn. Indeed, given
the complexity of Earth's climate, human activities that spew greenhouse gases into the atmosphere may increase
the potential for an abrupt cooling. For example: Regional and global climates have undergone quick and dramatic
changes even after what would appear to be only gentle prodding by natural influences, Dr. Eakin says. In many
cases, that prodding has been far less severe than the changes humans have wrought via industrial emissions of
carbon dioxide. "In the absence of better knowledge, we have to assume that humans are making abrupt climate
change more likely - not because humans are worse than nature, it's just because we're changing the system," says
Richard Alley, a Penn State University paleoclimatologist. Dr. Alley led a 2002 National Research Council panel
that examined abrupt climate change and laid out recommendations for research priorities and possible adaptation
strategies.

COMPLEXITY OF ACCURATELY PREDICTING AN ICE AGE MEANS YOU VOTE AFF ON


PREDICTABLE WARMING IMPACTS
REVKIN, environment reporter, 2008 [Andrew C., “Skeptics on human climate impact seize on cold spell,
NEW YORK TIMES, March 02, lexis/ttate]
It may seem that human-driven global warming, although perhaps a disaster on the scale of centuries, may be a
good thing in the long run if it fends off the next ice age awhile. But many climatologists note that the complex
interplay of greenhouse gases, orbital shifts and other influences on climate remain poorly understood. In fact,
some experts say, there is a chance that human-induced warming could shut down heat-toting ocean currents that
keep northern latitudes warmer than they otherwise would be. The result could be a faster descent into glacial
times instead of a delay.

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IMPACT ANS – WE CAN ADAPT WITH TECH


NO IMPACT – TECH CHECKS BACK IMPACT
HANSEN, head of NASA Goddard Institute and prof of Environmental Sciences @ Columbia University, 2007
[James, “How can we avert dangerous climate change?”, Speech delivered to the Select Committee on Energy
Independence and Global Warming, US House of Representatives, ttate]
Thus the natural tendency today, absent humans, would be toward the next ice age, albeit the tendency would not
be very strong because the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit is rather small (0.017). However, another ice age will
never occur, unless humans go extinct. Although orbital changes are the ‘pacemaker’ of the ice ages, the two
mechanisms by which the Earth becomes colder in an ice age are reduction of the long-lived GHGs and increase of
ice sheet area. But these natural mechanisms are now overwhelmed by human-made emissions, so GHGs are
skyrocketing and ice is melting all over the planet. Humans are now in control of global climate, for better or
worse. An ice age will never be allowed to occur if humans exist, because it can be prevented by even a
‘thimbleful’ of CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), which are easily produced.

41