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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 1

Scholars India Modeling DA


1NC Shell 1/2..................................................................................................................................................................2
1NC Shell 2/2..................................................................................................................................................................3
***Unq***......................................................................................................................................................................4
Indian Econ High ...........................................................................................................................................................5
AT: N/U - Indian Economy Low.....................................................................................................................................6
AT: N/U - Global Econ Downturn..................................................................................................................................7
Indian Consumer Confidence High.................................................................................................................................8
Indian Business Confidence High...................................................................................................................................9
Regulations Low...........................................................................................................................................................10
No Regulations Coming Now.......................................................................................................................................11
***Links***..................................................................................................................................................................12
Link – India Models US Regulations............................................................................................................................13
Link – India Models US Regulations............................................................................................................................14
Link – India Models US Subsides.................................................................................................................................15
India Only Models US..................................................................................................................................................16
India Only Models US..................................................................................................................................................17
***Impacts***..............................................................................................................................................................18
Regulations Kill Indian Economy.................................................................................................................................19
Regulations Decrease Biz Con......................................................................................................................................20
Econ Decline = India/Pakistan War..............................................................................................................................21
India/Pakistan War Goes Nuclear.................................................................................................................................22
India/Pakistan – AT: Limited Nuclear War...................................................................................................................23
India Key to Global Economy......................................................................................................................................24
***AFF Answers***....................................................................................................................................................25
N/U – Indian Economy Low.........................................................................................................................................26
N/U – Consumer Confidence Low................................................................................................................................27
No Link – India won’t model........................................................................................................................................28
No Link – No Modeling................................................................................................................................................29
No Link - No Modeling – Enron ..................................................................................................................................30
Turn – Oil dependence bad for Indian econ..................................................................................................................31
Turn - Renewables Key to Indian Economy.................................................................................................................32
Turn – Indian Alt. Energy key to stop warming............................................................................................................33
Turn - ↑ Growth=War...................................................................................................................................................34
No India/Pakistan War..................................................................................................................................................35
War inevitable - Kashmir..............................................................................................................................................36
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 2
Scholars India Modeling DA

1NC Shell 1/2


A. Indian economy strong now

Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team
(25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July
15, 2008)
Indians are optimistic about the local job prospects over the next twelve months. With 86 per cent, Indians are
the second most optimistic people where the job market is concerned over the next 12 months. 26 per cent of Indian respondents
consider job prospects in the country ‘excellent’ while 60 per cent respondents consider the job prospects ‘good’. Promising job
prospects for Indians over the next 12 months makes them confident about their personal finances over the same period. 12 per cent of
Indian respondents consider their state of personal finances ‘excellent’ and 67 percent consider it ‘good’ in the next twelve months. At 79
per cent in this positive frame of mind, India along with Denmark and Indonesia figures in the list of the most optimistic countries where
personal finances are concerned. “Inspite of an alarming inflation rate, India is still a growing economy with the
GDP ranging around nine per cent. There is still demand for talent in the market and especially with
the entry of various multinational brands the job market looks lucrative,” continued Panchal.

B. India models US energy policy

Atwood 2 (Emily R., J.D. Candidate, The Dickinson School of Law, Penn. State U, Winter,
11 Penn St. Envtl. L. Rev. 101, lexis)
The tension between the need to enhance environmental laws and the drive to industrialize the country
exists throughout most of Asia. Ben Boer, the Co-director of the Australian Center for Environmental Law, recently noted,
"the incongruities between the need to protect the environment globally and locally, and the national
aspirations for development, are nowhere more acute and more increasingly manifest than in the Asian
region." n11 The Asian Development Bank recently noted that "Asia's environmental performance has not matched its remarkable
economic progress during the past thirty years." n12 In Asia's modern historical and political development, the
government and legal structures of the United States and the United Kingdom have often served as a model
of inspiration. n13 In this particular context, however, nations in Asia, such as India, will not be able to follow the
Western model for industrial development because of a lack of natural resources. n14 The South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) n15 stated that "environmental degradation in South Asia is [*105] perhaps the most
alarming in Asia." n16 Additionally, India, like most South and East Asian nations, faces the prospect of developing in an
environmentally sensitive age. Unlike European and North American countries, South Asia must be environmentally conscious
in the development of the country; India, therefore, is not assisted by the paradigm of western
industrialization. Thus, India and other nations will need to deal with environmentally conscious development issues on their own.

C. Regulations kill economic growth

International Herald Tribune 7 (Nov 16, Elisabeth Rosenthal, The New York Times Media Group)
China and India have resisted inclusion in global climate-change pacts, saying that emissions limits
would severely handicap their economies and efforts to improve the lives of their citizens. The United
States has refused to participate in plans that involve caps on emissions, especially if developing
countries are not included.
Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN Environment Program, said that emerging economies deserved help in environmental
improvement, which is often costly. ''It is a question of sharing the burden and how to do it,'' he said by telephone. ''That is at the heart of
the negotiations.''
Indeed, T. Sankaralingam, managing director of NTPC, the largest Indian utility, said climate concerns inevitably took
a back seat in countries that were still trying to pull millions out of poverty.
''The priority for our country is economic growth and accessibility to energy for the people,'' he said at the energy
congress. ''We need to build power plants and transportation systems.''
He noted that 600 million people in India have no access to electricity. ''People below the poverty line should not be denied the benefits
of economic growth,'' he said.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 3
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1NC Shell 2/2


2. Economic decline causes India/Pakistan conflict
Schaffer`2 (Director South Asia Program, CSIS and Former U.S. Ambassador, Washington Quarterly 2002)
Mediocre growth will extract a high price in terms of political and foreign policies. Without reforms, India's economy
will sag, leading to competitive subsidization and spiraling fiscal deficits. A more worrisome issue for the United States, however, is that this
situation
could tempt India's government to take an unusually strident line toward Pakistan and its other neighbors,
which, in turn, would increase the risk of some kind of miscalculation or desperate move by Pakistan.
Continues…Particularly striking about the building blocks for the new Indo-U.S. relationship is how little Pakistan figures in them. Yet, the long-standing
dispute between India and Pakistan remains the greatest obstacle to the role India wants to play in the world, and the
possibility of unintended
Indo-Pakistani conflict is still the single greatest potential danger the United States perceives in South Asia.
Leaving Pakistan out of a discussion of Indo-U.S. ties would be disingenuous, particularly in the aftermath of September 11. India's unresolved problems
with Pakistan start with Kashmir, the subject of conflicting claims by India and Pakistan and the object of two wars between them as well as a continuing
insurgency, supported by Pakistan, in the Indian-held parts of the state. The list of problems between the two countries also includes a group of secondary
issues related to Kashmir, such as the status of the world's most desolate, disputed military installation on the Siachen Glacier in the high Himalayas, as well
as a number of other "normalization" issues, including trade and visa regulations. Since September 11, the level and frequency of violence has increased
within Kashmir and across the "Line of Control" that separates India and Pakistan. Statements coming from both governments provide no encouragement
that the leadership of either country is close to a sustainable formula for resuming talks about the situation. India's most recent initiative for beginning talks
with Kashmiri political leaders also seems to be going nowhere. Even worse, high-profile terrorist incidents, including suicide bombings of the State
Assembly building in Srinagar (capital of the part of Kashmir administered by India) and more recently at the Indian parliament in New Delhi, have raised
tensions between India and Pakistan dramatically. The most likely culprits in both cases are militant organizations that also appear on the U.S. government's
list of terrorist organizations, active in Kashmir but headquartered in Pakistan. U.S. actions since that latest incident have made clear that the freedom of
action these groups have enjoyed in Pakistan is incompatible with the relationship Pakistan is now trying to establish with the United States. The regional
military buildup that followed the bombing demonstrates how easily
such incidents can provoke a cataclysmic set of reactions
and how vulnerable regional peace is to another violent incident. Resolving these problems will require a
high level of Indian and Pakistani leadership. Both countries, as well as Kashmiri representatives, urgently
need to start a process that will eventually lead to an arrangement that is comfortable for all three parties and
that addresses the issue of the Indo-Pakistani relationship and the problems of governance within Kashmir. Any such
process would be slow and crisis-ridden; finding a solution is a marathon effort, not a quick fix. The obstacles to the success of such an endeavor are
daunting. In India, coalition politics and broad popular resentment against Pakistan make it difficult for a leader to push even in the best of times for a
If India's economic performance is mediocre, this task will become
reasonable settlement of India's problems with Pakistan.
more difficult. For Pakistan, Kashmir has powerful popular appeal. The political compromise required for a settlement
would be very painful, and the strength Pakistan's government has gained by confronting militant groups
over their activities in Afghanistan will not easily carry over to Kashmir. Without such an effort, however, the likelihood of
new and dangerous confrontations over Kashmir is unacceptably high. Despite the new issues that unite India and the United States, this all-too-
familiar one remains at the top of U.S. foreign priorities and cries out for a sustained and sophisticated U.S.
diplomatic strategy.

3. Global Nuclear War

Fai`1(Executive Director of the Washington-based Kashmiri American Council


(Dr. Ghulam Nabi, “India Pakistan Summit and the Issue of Kashmir,” 7/8, Washington Times,
http://www.pakistanlink.com/Letters/2001/July/13/05.html)
The foreign policy of the United States in South Asia should move from the lackadaisical and distant (with
India crowned with a unilateral veto power) to aggressive involvement at the vortex. The most dangerous
place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years
and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. It has ignited two wars between the
estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear
winter threatening the entire globe. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary. This apocalyptic
vision is no idiosyncratic view. The Director of Central Intelligence, the Department of Defense, and world
experts generally place Kashmir at the peak of their nuclear worries. Both India and Pakistan are
racing like thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery vehicles. Their defense
budgets are climbing despite widespread misery amongst their populations. Neither country has initialed the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, or indicated an inclination to ratify an
impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 4
Scholars India Modeling DA

***Unq***
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 5
Scholars India Modeling DA

Indian Econ High


Export growth driving Indian economy
Smith 7/13 (“Near-term risks rising in Mideast, India and China but the fundamentals remain excellent”
Author: Justin Smith Published: 13-07-2008 Source: BI-ME Buisiness Intelligence Middle East. www.bi-
me.com/doc_print.php?id=22419 accessed July 15, 2008)
India exporting more manufactured goods One of the most encouraging stories of the past few months
has been the rise of Indian exports of processed goods. They have boomed, a significant change from
the previous dominance of agricultural exports. This has been useful in preventing a massive
ballooning of the trade deficit on the back of high oil prices and other imports. Trade has grown as a
proportion of GDP, with imports now equivalent to 20% of GDP, exports 14%. (Of course, India is only a
few steps along the road that China took in the 1980s, to a place where total trade is now equivalent to 64%
of GDP in China.) But like China, India's exposure to a slowing US economy is more limited. Last year,
only 14% of exports were to the US, compared with 23% for China. There is another important contrast to
draw here. Too much of India's export growth in 2007-2008 has been driven by commodity prices. If
these were to decline, then the overall trade deficit would likely sharpen, although this would also
depend on the price of oil products, of which India is a major importer. China, in contrast, would see its
surplus rise again if commodity prices fell, but this would be because of a falling import bill.

Investment rates driving Indian growth


Smith 7/13 (“Near-term risks rising in Mideast, India and China but the fundamentals remain excellent”
Author: Justin Smith Published: 13-07-2008 Source: BI-ME Buisiness Intelligence Middle East. www.bi-
me.com/doc_print.php?id=22419 accessed July 15, 2008)
Higher savings in India, financing higher investment Short-term exigencies aside, India seems to be also
solving one key challenge: its savings rates are rising. Not to China levels, perhaps, but this is still really
significant as savings can finance investment. In 2007-2008 India's savings rate was 34.8% of GDP,
thanks to higher corporate and government saving, as well as stable household savings. Investment has
risen as a result, from around 20% of GDP five years ago to 34% today. India still needs to be a bit more
of a dragon here, as 30% of agricultural output is still wasted before reaching market because of the
lack of infrastructure, and the country also has a power deficit of some 15% at times of peak demand.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 6
Scholars India Modeling DA

AT: N/U - Indian Economy Low


India will bounce back in 2009
Smith 7/13 (“Near-term risks rising in Mideast, India and China but the fundamentals remain excellent”
Author: Justin Smith Published: 13-07-2008 Source: BI-ME Buisiness Intelligence Middle East. www.bi-
me.com/doc_print.php?id=22419 accessed July 15, 2008)
Fast, but slowing growth Both India and China are slowing, predominantly because of US weakness, cost pressures and domestic
tightening measures (both raised interest rates in 2007, India two times, China five). So far in 2008, India has already raised rates twice
by a total of 75bps (the repo rate is now at 8.5%). Needless to say, more aggressive rate hikes could still be in the offing in India and we
still expect more hikes in China too, although the bank credit quota is doing the heavy lifting there at present. Even in this weak
patch though, we see both countries still moving ahead: India should grow 7.4% year-on-year in fiscal
2008-2009, China at 9.5% in 2008. There is a difference though. India should still be able to bounce back
a bit in 2009-2010 to 8.5%, but China will continue to decelerate. The impending government staff wage
hikes in India could provide a boost to consumption. The Indian central bank (RBI) could quickly
reverse its tightening bias gradually once inflation starts reverting towards 5% year-on-year in second
half 2009. Corporates could still continue to build capacity in anticipation of future demand.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 7
Scholars India Modeling DA

AT: N/U - Global Econ Downturn


Global downturns boost the Indian economy
India Times 6/18 (“India second in consumer confidence index” Economic Times 18 Jun, 2008, 1859 hrs IST,
IANS http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-3142535,prtpage-1.cms Accessed July 15, 2008)
NEW DELHI: Despite a marginal slowdown in growth, India still ranks second after Norway in
consumer confidence and their attitude towards recession, says a survey by a global information and
media consultancy. "One market's trash is another's treasure, Norway and India still ride the wave of
economic slowdown," says the Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey conducted among 28,153 Internet
users in 51 markets in Europe, Asia Pacific, the Americas and the Middle East. "Aside from consistently
high consumer confidence, the two most optimistic nations in the world, Norway and India, share something
in common: Their economies are benefiting from the by-products of economic slowdown." The survey
says India will see its employment rate rise in inverse proportion to rich nations, thanks to the
country's enthusiastic adoption of work-force optimisation practices and the outsourcing bug. "India
has established itself as a hub for outsourcing technical and support staff, as belts in the world's leading
economies tighten. We may well see India's economy, and the confidence of its consumers, soar." The
Nielson survey says 94 percent of Norwegians and 86 percent of Indians were optimistic about their job
prospects over the next year, while a staggering 93 percent Portuguese and 89 percent Japanese felt their
job prospects were either not so good or downright bad.

Global downturn = gain for India


India Times 6/24 (“Consumer confidence falls; Indians still optimistic: Survey” 24 Jun, 2008, 2027 hrs IST, PTI
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-3160997,prtpage-1.cms accessed July 15, 2008)
NEW DELHI: Indian consumers' spending power might have been adversely impacted by soaring
inflation and surging crude prices but they still remain among the most confident in the world, says a
survey. The latest online survey conducted by global media and information company Nielsen has revealed that consumer confidence
in India has declined by 11 points to 122, the lowest level in the last five years. According to the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence
Index, which measures consumer confidence, major concerns and spending habits in 51 countries, about 58 per cent of Indian
respondents do not think that their country is in an economic recession now. However, 42 per cent of Indians believe that the country is
currently in an economic recession. Despite the consumer confidence declining by 11 points, Indian consumers
continue to be the most confident in the region and is ranked just behind Norway (129 points). "India is
one of the few markets that stand to gain from the grim economic outlook In recent years, India has
established itself as a hub for outsourcing technical and support staff; as belts in the world's leading
economies tighten, we may well see India's economy and the confidence of its consumers soar," the
report said. Globally the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 88 down six points in the last six months the largest
single drop the index has recorded in the last three years. India dropped from 133 points in the last leg of the survey in November 2007
to 122 points while US suffered the biggest fall in confidence index, falling 17 points.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 8
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Indian Consumer Confidence High


India has second highest consumer confidence in the world
Hindustan Times 6/25 (Suman Layak Mumbai, June 25, 2008
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print.aspx?Id=f3ec126b-6539-49a8-aec3-5442fc71861f © Copyright
2007 Hindustan Times Last Updated: 00:29 IST(25/6/2008) “Indians upbeat about buying, jobs” accessed July 15,
2008)
Inflation, 11.05 per cent at last count, seems to have dented Indian consumers’ confidence, but they’re
not hitting the panic button. A survey by consultancy firm AC Nielsen shows the Indian consumer
confidence index down 13 points to 122, but it’s still the second highest in the world. Norway tops the list at
129. The others don’t feel that optimistic, the global index is down to 88, with Americans, Latvians and New Zealanders high on the
pessimism chart. The index is calculated on basis of answers to questions on job outlook, state of personal finance and whether it’s a
good time to buy something. The survey covered 500 people each in the 51 countries it was conducted in. Sarang Panchal, AC
Nielsen’s managing director of research for Asia and Australia, said Indians are shopping more and the
country is among the top three brand-conscious markets. “Good jobs, hefty pay packets and exposure
to lifestyle are pushing Indians towards luxury items.” The survey says Indians are optimistic about
employment too. Around 26 per cent felt job market in India is excellent, while 60 per cent felt it was
good. Sixty nine per cent were worried about inflation, but 58 per cent said the country was not in the midst
of a recession. India is one of the few markets that can benefit from a global recession—cost-cutting in
the developed world would lead to more outsourcing.

Even with minor dips, overall confidence remains high


Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team
(25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July
15, 2008)
"Despite the drop in consumer confidence, India ranked second with 122 points, just behind Norway
which scored 129 points on The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index. Indian consumers continue to be the
most confident in the region, despite posting a dramatic 11-point fall," he adds. Panchal further states that
India is one of the few markets that stand to gain from the grim economic outlook. "In recent years, India
has established itself as a hub for outsourcing technical and support staff; as belts in the world’s
leading economies tighten, we may well see India’s economy along with the confidence of its consumers
soar. Portugal, Korea and Japan languished at the bottom of rankings as the world’s most pessimistic
nations."

Consumer confidence high


Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team
(25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July
15, 2008)
Good job and financial prospects have sufficiently loosened the Indian purse and 45 per cent of
respondents surveyed are optimistic that it is the perfect time to buy things that they would want or
need. “Indians are shopping more and are buying well known brands. In a recent luxury brands survey
done by Nielsen, India figured amongst the top three most brand conscious countries of the world. This
shows that good jobs, hefty pay packages, and global exposure to lifestyle are pushing the Indian
consumer towards luxury items. So even when there is an economic recession globally, Indians are
splurging and are optimistic about their finances,” says Panchal.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 9
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Indian Business Confidence High


Indian business confidence high
Cambridge Network News 7/9 (KPMG LLP Date: 09/07/08 “India asks: what credit crunch?”
http://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/article/default.aspx?objid=49065 accessed July 15, 2008)
With global markets feeling the full impact of the fall-out from the credit crunch, India has shrugged
off worries to lead emerging market deal activity. Nina Amin and Ian Gomes, Partners at KPMG, review India’s appetite
for acquisitions. India is now the UK’s fourth largest trading partner - behind the US, China and Belgium. India’s private
enterprises’ insatiable appetite to acquire foreign assets is catapulting the nation on the global stage. In
the 12 months ending early December 2007, acquisitions abroad by Indian companies totaled US$39 billion, five
times more than in that for 2006. Despite the turmoil in the global financial markets, bullish Indian
companies are continuing to lead the charge for acquisitions within the developed economies. Possibly the
highest profiled example so far this year is the acquisition of Ford’s Jaguar and Landrover brands by
Tata Motors, India’s number one automaker. In fact, among the final three serious bidders for the brands, two were Indian firms,
(Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors). It was Tata Motors who were finally handed the keys in March for a $2.3 billion price tag. The
deal gives them a product line-up ranging from the world's cheapest car to some of its more expensive ones. Already this year there
has been news of plans by the Bank of India to increase its presence in the overseas market through
acquisitions and the Indian Corporate Affairs Minister has announced plans to streamline procedures for mergers and acquisitions by
firms through changes in company laws. At a time when other buyers seem to be retreating from the M&A field,
Indian companies’ acquisition activities have not slowed over the past six months.

Business confidence soaring now


Cambridge Network News 7/9 (KPMG LLP Date: 09/07/08 “India asks: what credit crunch?”
http://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/article/default.aspx?objid=49065 accessed July 15, 2008)
Ian Gomes said: “It’s also worth bearing in mind that while Indian deals for example have been at the lower end of
the value spectrum, deals involving U.S. companies have typically been worth rather more, getting to
the sort of the size at which many buyers and lenders may now be balking as the liquidity squeeze
continues. Deals will still happen though so, if China is to be less of a factor, then the challenge for possible M&A targets in
the other emerging markets over the next six months is to make themselves as attractive as possible to potential U.S suitors whose
roving eye may now be looking elsewhere.” The success of India's outward investment, particularly with
overseas acquisitions, has heralded a new stage in the country's economic development. As investment
restrictions have been relaxed and financial regulations have been streamlined, such as, allowing greater
access to debt financing from domestic as well as international markets, business confidence has soared. The
combination of greater business opportunities and better availability of capital has brought about a
mindset change that is giving Indian companies more courage to enter overseas markets via mergers
and acquisitions.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 10
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Regulations Low
India is on the right track now-Their few and simple regulations are good for biz con
Bhagat`7 (Rasheeda, Buisness Line, Of Business confidence and nuclear strikes, February 15, 2007,
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/02/15/stories/2007021500150800.htm)
To arrive at the rankings, 10 indicators, such as start-up, operation, trade, payment of taxes, and so on,
were considered by the study, which is the third in a series on South Asia. India is ranked a "top
reformer," as five reforms introduced by it have "reduced the time, cost, and hassle for businesses in
India to comply with legal and administrative requirements, placing the country among the top 20
reformers worldwide." Though Pakistan ranks higher than India in `ease of doing business', India is ranked
the top `reformer' in the region, as it pushed through reforms to "simplify business registration, cross-
border trade, and payment of taxes," eased access to credit and strengthened investor protection. "Although
the reforms improved India's ranking over last year's, it still ranks relatively low (in ease of doing
business) at 134, and stands 41 places after China, which is reforming at a faster pace. The top-ranked
countries in the region are the Maldives (53) and Pakistan (74), followed by Bangladesh (88), Sri Lanka (89),
Nepal (100), India (134), Bhutan (138), and Afghanistan (162)." "Significant improvements" had been
made by India in reducing the "red tape" that entrepreneurs face in doing business, and it "now takes
35 days to register a business in Mumbai compared with 71 days a year ago and 89 days in 2004," comments
Ms Caralee McLiesh, one of the authors of the report, noting that it could do much better by efficient
implementation of the regulations in place. Arguing that more business-friendly practices and fewer
obstacles for entrepreneurs can translate into potential for creating more jobs, Mr Simon Bell, World
Bank Manager for Financial and Private Sector Development in South Asia, says: "In India, over 8 million
workers have formal jobs in the private sector — in a country of over 1 billion people and a workforce
of 458 million. Indian States would greatly benefit from new enterprises and jobs, which can come with
more business-friendly regulations." In Pakistan, Karachi is the best of the six cities chosen for the study in
terms of doing business easily, while "Quetta imposes the most complex and costly administrative barriers."
But court hassles, labour regulations and tax complications remain major problems.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 11
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No Regulations Coming Now


Indian business aren’t expecting major, sudden changes
Madan`6 (Tanvi, The Brookings Institution, The Brookings Foreign Policy Studies Energy Security Series India, November
2006, http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2006/11india.aspx)
“Official” and “unofficial” India are keenly aware of energy-related problems and potential solutions.
The stumbling block to effective change tends to be implementation, which has often been slow (some
prefer the term “measured”) and reactive. Future changes in the energy sector are also not likely to be
drastic. Reform will continue, as much a result of necessity as of choice. It will be a slow process,
primarily for political and social reasons, but also because of the difficulty of developing an energy
strategy as opposed to a cluster of (sometimes contradictory) energy policies. Integrating these policies is
apt to be a difficult task.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 12
Scholars India Modeling DA

***Links***
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 13
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Link – India Models US Regulations


US government regulations will be emulated in India

Heinz 7 (John: Professor of Environmental Policy and Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences Harvard University
http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:aw_5uMAh3HMJ:wacsf.vportal.net/launchpad/Client_00057/2007/SF%2520Conference/Holdren_present
ation.pdf+united+states+%22reduce+emissions%22+%22india+will+follow%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us)
Global warming” is a misnomer because it implies some-thing gradual, uniform, & benign, none of which is true; “global climatic disruption” is a
more accurate description. The disruption & its impacts are growing more rapidly than was expected. “Dangerous anthropogenic
interference” can no longer be avoided. Goal must be to avoid catastrophic interference. This will be a challenge
because early & large deflections from the “business as usual” emissions path are required. There is no panacea, but much that can
be done. Most important is putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions. United States is near a political
“tipping point” on climate-change policy; after we move, China & India will follow.

CDM proves, India and China will fall in line with the US

Canberra Times 5 (August 6, lexis)


The aim of the "Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate" is supposedly to
promote the use of clean technology between Australia, the United States and developing nations like
India and China. But the agreement is merely a weaker version of a mechanism that already exists with the
Kyoto protocol.
The "Clean Development Mechanism" (CDM) within Kyoto specifically allows developed nations to
exchange and invest in clean development technologies within the developing world. Both developed
and developing nations have taken huge steps towards implementing and investing in the CDM. The
Indian government for example has published a 187-page national strategy for the implementation of the
CDM. The report specifically identifies clean development projects for India that developed nations can
invest in, such as renewable energy initiatives. China has similarly highlighted some key projects
within the CDM like wind energy, biomass gasification and technology efficiencies that would involve
investment and technology transfer with the developed world.

India models American environmental policy

Sovacool 8 (Benjamin K. Research Fellow in the Energy Governance Program at the Centre on Asia and
Globalization, part of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore., 27 Stan.
Envtl. L.J. 397, June, lexis)
Third, other countries continue to model American-style federalism. Germany, the Republic of Austria,
Russian Federation, Spain, India, and Nigeria have all based parts of their government structure on
American federalism, choosing to decentralize power by adopting constitutions that are more federalist
than the ones that they have replaced. n24 The "American experience with ... federalism," writes John
Kincaid, "may have useful implications for an emerging federalist revolution worldwide." n25 Mikhail
Gorbachev even stated that "the phenomenon of federalism affects the interests of the entire global
community." n26 Given such trends, it seems likely that other countries may model American
environmental federalism. If this is the case, ensuring that the United States government addresses
renewable energy and climate policy at the proper scale becomes even more important for the signal it
sends to the world.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 14
Scholars India Modeling DA

Link – India Models US Regulations


Other countries will model US emissions regulations

Podesta 7 (http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/11/energy_chapter.html)
A word about the international dimension is necessary. This report’s focus is on what we must do at home to
transform the energy foundation of our economy, and so the complex issues involved in devising global
solutions are largely beyond its scope. But a few short points are in order. All major carbon-emitting
nations, including key developing countries such as China and India, will have to be part of the solution.
In fact, most of the future emissions growth will be generated by developing countries who collectively will
account for over 75 percent of global emissions growth by 2030. But far-reaching, mandatory U.S. action
has to come first. Without that, the United States will have no credibility to argue for broader global
participation. American action will spur developing world action in two separate ways. First, the
policy changes needed to cut carbon emissions in the United States are job-producing and growth-
generating actions. Other countries will emulate them, just as China, Russia, Brazil, and other countries
have adopted building energy codes and appliance efficiency standards based on U.S. models. Second,
the technologies needed to promote low-carbon economies are increasingly produced and sold in a
global market. When America buys compact fluorescent lamps, most of them are made in China, so China
automatically develops the manufacturing technology to use them domestically.

India will follow US lead on climate

CongressNow 7 (Dec 11, Geof Koss, CongressNow Staff)


Developing countries are exempt from controls under the current Kyoto Protocol, which expires in
2012. The ongoing meeting in Indonesia is designed to map out the path for negotiating a successor treaty.
Kerry and others have repeatedly argued that China and India will follow the United States' lead on
regulating carbon dioxide.
"I think the world wants to see the world's biggest emitter step up," he said this afternoon. "You cant
go on with this 'you first' routine. It's got to be a 'follow me.'"
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 15
Scholars India Modeling DA

Link – India Models US Subsides


India follow US lead on alternative energy subsidies

Boxer 7 (Barabra, Chairman, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, American University/Sustainable Development Law &
Policy, Fall, 8 Sustainable Dev. L. & Pol'y 2, lexis)
We must become far more energy efficient and cleaner. It is the federal government's role to create incentives for
new and green technologies. Electricity providers must look to renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, or
capture and sequester their global warming emissions. Our national automobile fleet must become dramatically more efficient. Our
industries and buildings must become state-of-the-art energy savers through retrofitting existing stock and incorporating green design in
new construction.
America must lead the world in clean technology development and renewable energy. It is essential for our
economy's ability to grow and remain internationally competitive. Other countries should become dependent on our clean technologies.
It will be these technologies that will free us from our dependencies on foreign energy sources and will enable other economies to
achieve development in a carbon-constrained world.
It is also the federal government's role to lead the international community. We will soon become the
only industrialized country not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. If we become reengaged with the
international community and take the lead on climate change, other nations like India and China will
follow. Combating climate change will also help avoid other environmental disasters like species extinction and prevent global
political instability from floods, diseases, mass migration, and conflicts over water, food, and other natural resources. By facing this
challenge now, we can maximize our chances of avoiding the most dangerous effects of climate change and capitalize on the tremendous
opportunities that lie ahead.
Our country's response to global warming is not only a measurement of international leadership, but also a
reflection of our national character. From the National Environmental Policy Act to the very idea of a "cap-and-trade" this
country has been a pioneer in environmental policy. The time has come for the United States to reclaim
its position as the preeminent world leader in environmental policy--and not just global warming.

US action can spur India to reduce emissions

Hands 7 (Betsy: http://www.montanastatehouse.com/index.php/betsyhands/its-time-to-deal-with-global-


warming/)
The United States’ is the largest single source of global warming pollutants. Our emissions of heat-trapping gases exceed those of China
and India combined and amount to about one-quarter of the world’s total. A simple fairness doctrine indicates that we should be equally
involved in the solution. More importantly, if the United States does not become the world’s leader in efforts to
reverse global warming then the technologies that are needed to redress the problem will not be developed. Without such
technologies, China and India will bury the world in global warming pollution in the next few decades. If we
value the future, we must immediately initiate actions that will lead to an 80% reduction in the emissions of heat-trapping
pollution, particularly carbon dioxide, by 2050. By so leading, we can expect the rest of the world to follow.

United States’ alternative energy policies set an example that countries will follow

Robertson 7 (Peter: Chairman of Strategic Planning, Policy, Government and Public Affairs for Chevron Corporation
http://www.chevron.com/GlobalIssues/CorporateResponsibility/2006/executive_interview/)
Tomorrow's energy supplies must not only be affordable and reliable, but cleaner than ever before. Governments can play a
role in stimulating the development and deployment of new energy technologies such as carbon sequestration,
next-generation ethanol fuels, and advanced battery systems. In many cases, it is impossible to commercialize promising technologies
without government support and partnership. As one of the largest energy consumers in the United States, the U.S.
government can set an example by requiring agencies to use less energy, providing incentives to
increase energy efficiency and promoting conservation efforts. More fundamental, governments have a
responsibility to lead open and honest debates on how to balance continued economic growth with our shared desire to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions. After all, energy is more than mobility, light and heat. It is a fundamental driver of
global economic growth and opportunity. Policy makers must articulate solutions that will enable both goals to be reached
or be prepared to propose sensible trade-offs. Policies geared toward absolutes – economic growth regardless of environmental
consequences or emissions reduction at any cost – are bound to be unsustainable. Ultimately, we must all be better informed and learn
about these issues.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 16
Scholars India Modeling DA

India Only Models US


India will only follow US environmental standards

Eco worldly 8 (June 26, http://ecoworldly.com/2008/06/26/should-us-be-held-to-higher-environmental-standards/)


If the US can commit to higher environmental standards - mainly because it is the main polluter
anyway, it will significantly make it easier for the world to engage other major polluters such as China
and India in the global climate response.
China and India, like many developing nations accuse the US and other developed nations of having done
damage to the environment for longer periods to time. Unlike the US however, many of the developing nations have
approved international climate agreements, a critical first step in addressing the problem.
However, developing nations lack the werewithal to produce the requisite greneer techonlogies as well as the political and economic
might to influence a global response.
On the contrary, the US has all this in abundance but seriously lacks the moral aptitude because of its stance on the global climate
agreement.
With its financial and technological might, the US is well-positioned to build a low-emissions
environment, and therefore set an example to the rest of the world.
It is a paradoxic sham that the US assumes a claim to higher moral standards in protecting democracy worldwide yet refuses due to self-
interest to commit to global agreements against what scientists have described as the “greatest threat facing humanity” in our time.
The proposition that the US can go it alone is hurtful to global efforts because it makes other countries,
chiefly China, to engage in finger pointing without addressing the problem.
As the world’s leading power, the US needs to show farsighted leadership in efforts to respond to
threats posed by climate change.
“By committing to higher environmental standards, the US can make it a priority to develop and prove
the effectiveness of alternative forms of energy, and use this as a basis to lobby and mobilize less-
developed nations,” states US in the World, an initiative to get Americans involved in worldly matters.
“By acting first, the U.S. and other rich countries that are most responsible for global warming - because they burn the most oil, gas, and
coal - can set a powerful example for others to follow. By committing themselves to developing alternative energy
sources, technologically advanced countries like the United States can create new jobs and industries at
home while jump-starting the international effort to slow global warming and influencing the energy
choices of less advanced countries that are on the brink of making big new energy investments,” adds
US in the World.

US has the unique ability to influence other countries

Scherr 6 (Jacob, Director of Natrual Resource Defense Council http://www.nrdc.org/international/osuperpower.asp)


As a young lawyer at NRDC in the 1970s, I found it incredibly inspiring to watch the United States lead the world in the fight to protect
our planet from mounting pollution and resource degradation. I would never have imagined then that decades later -- as we enter a time
of unprecedented global change -- the leadership of the United States would be so blind to the world's growing environmental threats.
What makes this situation particularly hard to fathom is that no single nation has more to lose by refusing to confront
our current environmental problems -- or more to contribute toward solving them -- than the United
States. As shareholders in the world's largest economy, Americans have grown more accustomed to material comfort than any other
people. Yet with resources such as oil, land and fresh water in finite supply -- and with consumer demand in China and other nations
rapidly increasing -- we simply cannot sustain our current rate of consumption. At the same time, we are the world's biggest polluter.
America's status as both the wealthiest and most polluting country on earth means that we must be a
central player in any effort to protect the global environment. Yet despite our unparalleled influence --
and the growing pressures on our planet's natural systems -- the United States has increasingly failed to
take a leadership role on environmental protection. No other country in the world is as well positioned
as the United States to stimulate the kinds of sweeping changes that are critical right now. If we
embrace technologies that help us live more efficiently and actively cooperate with other countries on
environmental issues, we can sustain our societies without overwhelming the world's ecosystems.
Otherwise, what kind of planet will we leave our children?
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 17
Scholars India Modeling DA

India Only Models US


US leadership in alt energy k/t global action – only the US can be the instigator

Udall 8 (Tom, Chief Counsel to the Department of Health and Environment http://www.tomudall.house.gov/)
Thanks to the work of activists from Al Gore to the Union of Concerned Scientists, people from all walks of
life finally have begun to pay attention to global warming. Large majorities in countries around the world
now acknowledge that global warming constitutes a serious and immediate threat to the world’s ecology
and economy. Yet strong Congressional action to address the problem often has seemed a distant hope.
The world wants action, but we have little experience with the kind and magnitude of action that the
problem demands. However, it will require renewed trust between citizens and government, and
between nations. Unfortunately, that trust has not yet been built. The science underpinning the need for
emissions reductions is indisputable, but the American people must see that a plan for tackling global
warming can be good for business and workers. On the international level, no country wants to accept
curbs on emissions until they know that other countries will also do their part. The United States,
which produces 36 percent of the world's carbon emissions, must play a leadership role on this issue,
but we cannot succeed alone. Through our example and our diplomacy, we must build a global
consensus that every country will do what it takes to protect our planet. We are all in this together, and
the solution requires a global effort.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 18
Scholars India Modeling DA

***Impacts***
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 19
Scholars India Modeling DA

Regulations Kill Indian Economy

Regulations hurt Indian utility companies


Victor`8 (David G., professor at Stanford Law School and director of the Program on Energy & Sustainable Development; he
is also adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations., Asia’s Achilles Heel, http://www.newsweek.com/id/117004)
India is also plagued by administrative weakness—and the problems are getting worse as the Indian
economy takes off and government struggles to address the byproducts of rapid economic growth.
Large pockets of the Indian power grid are unreliable because Indian policymakers tinker with
electricity prices in an effort to deliver political favors. (Electricity supplied to most Indian farms costs
almost nothing and in some parts of the country is actually free. India has many farmers and they vote;
politicians court them with stunts like free power. Poor accounting systems allow others who steal power
to blame the farmers.) That tinkering has put most Indian power utilities into bankruptcy. The
problems would be even worse if most of the power sector were not actually owned by the central and
state governments in India, which shuffle money around to keep the companies afloat. Unable to get
reliable power that is essential to industrial production, most large power users build their own power
supplies. By some estimates, one third of the country's power plants are of this "captive" variety—by design,
disconnected from the government-controlled grid so they are more reliable and also immune from political
meddling.

Indian economy dependent on cheap energy

International Herald Tribune 7 (Nov 16, Elisabeth Rosenthal, The New York Times Media Group)
But in recent weeks, officials of the International Energy Agency, created to advise the industrialized nations,
have stressed that if a solution is not found to curb the growth of energy use and improve energy efficiency in
India and China, the trend will become harder and harder to reverse.
China and India are building huge numbers of power plants to meet energy needs over the next 10 years,
and 90 percent will burn coal. Coal is a highly polluting but relatively inexpensive source of power, making
it the choice of developing countries. While technology exists to make coal plants somewhat cleaner, it is
expensive.
''What choices China and India make will be with us for 60 years,'' said Birol, the agency economist.
''These are locked-in investments. Here in Europe - in Brussels, in Paris - we talk about biofuels and
photovoltaic cells. But in the world it is coal that increases most in the energy mix, especially in India in
China.''
Likewise, choices made in construction and manufacturing today in developing countries will leave a
long-lasting legacy. Cheap but low-efficiency appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners being
manufactured in countries like China to supply upwardly mobile populations will create emissions for
years to come. In terms of floor space, half the world's construction is in China, Birol said, and the quality of
windows and walls is poor, so the resulting buildings waste enormous amounts of energy.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 20
Scholars India Modeling DA

Regulations Decrease Biz Con


Less regulation increases business confidence
Bhagat`7 (Rasheeda, Buisness Line, Of Business confidence and nuclear strikes, February 15, 2007,
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/02/15/stories/2007021500150800.htm)
It is unlikely that anyone will be surprised by the finding of the World Bank's latest report on South
Asia that "doing business became easier in India in 2005-2006," but Chennai and Bangalore are going
to be jealous of Hyderabad emerging at the top as the Indian city with "most business-friendly
regulations". Hyderabad, the city that the former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, Mr Chandrababu Naidu,
so skilfully plotted on the global map, continues to have "the most business-friendly regulations," says the
study titled Doing Business in South Asia 2007. Released on Tuesday, the study places India among the top
20 reformers worldwide, and covers various aspects of doing business in 12 cities. In the `ease of doing
business' category, Hyderabad is followed by Bangalore and Jaipur. The last might come as a surprise, being
placed well above Chennai, which is somewhere in the middle of the list, but is a tribute to the management
of the BJP-ruled State led by Ms Vasundhara Raje. Compare this with Kolkata, being the worst among the
12, with Mumbai just a little ahead, "as these cities impose the most complex and costly business
regulations. Typically, large urban centres such as Mumbai and Kolkata have a high volume of business, so
regulatory and administrative bottlenecks create serious congestion," says the study, which puts
Bhubaneswar, Chandigarh, Chennai, Lucknow, New Delhi, Patna and Ranchi in the middle of the list, in that
order. Hyderabad is the preferred destination for businesses because it only takes 35 days to register a
property here compared to 138 days in New Delhi, or Kolkata, where it takes almost 155 days. Import and
export of goods happen fastest through the Chennai and Kolkata ports, as opposed to Mumbai, says the
report, adding: "States can learn from each other in the areas of business regulation. For example, it is easiest
to start a business in Jaipur. Closing a business is easiest in Bangalore, while registering a property is easiest
in Hyderabad."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 21
Scholars India Modeling DA

Econ Decline = India/Pakistan War


The government will try to distract the people during an economic decline by toying with
nationalism-This makes conflict with Pakistan more likely
Business Recorder`2k (Global News Wire, WHAT FORCES INDIA, PAKISTAN TO BACK DOWN IN KASHMIR?,
December 27, 2000 Lexis)
Looking at the domestic politics of each side, presumably it's a lot harder for Pakistan to calm things down
on their side of the Kashmir conflict than it is for India. "Well, yes, in the sense that it may be a lot harder for
the government of General Musharraf to rein in the Islamic militant groups who're doing much of the
fighting in Kashmir. But in the end, it may be equally difficult for India and Pakistan to step back from
the brink in Kashmir, because Kashmir is far more than a territorial dispute; it's intimately linked to
the national identity of both sides - with Pakistan's identity as an Islamic state and India's identity as a
secular state." Speaking of India's identity as a secular state, isn't that challenged by Prime Minister
Vajpayee's statements in support of a campaign to build a Hindu shrine over the ruins of the Babri mosque in
Ayodhya, which was destroyed by a mob of Hindu extremists in 1992? "Yes, but Vajpayee is playing a
delicate political game. And that's taking India into another dangerous phase, where the ruling
Bharatiya Janata party is revealing its hand, trying to exploit Hindu nationalist sentiments around the
Ayodhya issue. Some observers believe that he may be doing this as something of a distraction for his
supporters, trying to create political space for himself to push through tough economic measures,
which he desperately needs to do. The government is basically bankrupt, and India is facing an
economic slowdown. We're heading back into a terrible mess, but in a democracy as politically fractured
as India's, it's hard to cut government spending. The alternative is privatisation - the government owns
everything from hotels to car factories, and all they've managed to privatise in recent years was a bakery - but
there's strong ideological resistance. That may be tempting Vajpayee to distract people with the Ayodhya
issue.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 22
Scholars India Modeling DA

India/Pakistan War Goes Nuclear


Indo-Pakistani conflict goes nuclear
Deane`2 (John Deane, Chief Political Correspondent, PA News, KASHMIR CONFLICT 'COULD SPIRAL INTO NUCLEAR
WAR', May 27, 2002, Lexis)
The bitter dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir could escalate into a nuclear
confrontation, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw warned today. In a speech at the German foreign ministry in
Berlin Mr Straw, who is en route to a visit to India and Pakistan, underlined the gravity of the situation. Mr
Straw cautioned: "The current tension, and the build-up of military forces in Kashmir, could all too
easily spiral out of control into a conventional, and then nuclear conflict of a kind we have never seen
before. "We sometimes add the words 'incalculable risks' in such circumstances. But whilst we cannot
be precise, the risks are all too easy to describe. Death, destruction, disease, economic collapse, affecting
not just the immediate war theatre but many parts of the subcontinent and lasting for years. "So it is
imperative that a better way out of this conflict is found; a way that sees the end of cross-border
terrorism and the support for all forms of terrorism; then a de-escalation of military preparedness;
then a constructive dialogue to resolve this longstanding bilateral argument over this beautiful but
benighted area of Kashmir."

The conflict will go nuclear


Khan`4(Khurshid Khan 2004 Most recent cited source is from 11/30/04 “Limited War Under the Nuclear Umbrella and its
Implications for South Asia” General Staff Officer Grade 1 in the Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs Directorate, Strategic
Plans Division, JSHQ, Pakistan. http://www.stimson.org/southasia/pdf/khurshidkhan.pdf)
Since the creation of India and Pakistan, both countries have been involved in several conflicts that
continue to pose the risk of inadvertent war. These conflicts include the Kashmir dispute, territorial disputes
such as Siachen, a nuclear arms race, and water disputes. Unlike in the past, any future war between the
two countries, no matter how limited it might be, will have the potential to escalate into a full-scale nuclear
war in light of the changed strategic environment. Although the nuclear tests conducted by India and
Pakistan in May 1998 have radically changed the strategic landscape in South Asia, nuclear weapons have
yet to assure strategic stability in South Asia despite tall claims by various quarters. The question of
stability in South Asia cannot be isolated from global conventional and nuclear weapons policies. The
US, Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, and to some extent Russian equation constitute a nuclear chain
affecting not only the stability of South Asia but also that of other regions.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 23
Scholars India Modeling DA

India/Pakistan – AT: Limited Nuclear War


Even a limited nuclear exchange kills billions
Times of India 10/4/07
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/Indo-Pak_nuclear_war_could_cause_one_billion_starvation_deaths/articleshow/2428228.cms

LONDON: A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would not only have catastrophic affects in these
two countries or their neighbours, but it could cause one billion people to starve to death across the
world.
Hundreds of millions of more would die from disease and conflicts over food in the aftermath of any
such war.
US medical expert Ira Helfand will on Thursday present this horrifying scenario in London during a
conference at the Royal Society of Medicine.
"A limited nuclear war taking place far away poses a threat that should concern everyone on the
planet," the New Scientist magazine quoted Helfand as saying.
"It is appropriate, given the data, to be frightened," said Helfand, who is an emergency-room doctor in
Northampton, Massachusetts, US, and a co-founder of the US anti-nuclear group, Physicians for Social
Responsibility.
Helfand has tried to map out the global consequences of India and Pakistan exploding 100 Hiroshima-
sized nuclear warheads.
Referring to earlier studies that have suggested that in such a conflict, the annual growing season in the
world's most important grain-producing areas would shrink by between 10 and 20 days, he said that
the world is ill-prepared to cope with such a disaster.
"Global grain stocks stand at 49 days, lower than at any point in the past five decades," he said, adding:
"These stocks would not provide any significant reserve in the event of a sharp decline in production.
We would see hoarding on a global scale."
Countries, which import more than half of their grain, such as Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan, would
be particularly vulnerable, along with 150 million people in north Africa, which imports 45 percent of
its food, Helfand said.
Many of the 800 million around the world who are already officially malnourished would also suffer, he
added.
He went on to say that the global death toll from a nuclear war in Asia "could exceed one billion from
starvation alone."
Food shortages could also trigger epidemics of cholera, typhus and other diseases, as well as armed
conflicts, which together could kill "hundreds of millions".
Helfand further told the magazine that the smoke would warm the stratosphere by up to 50°C,
accelerating the natural reactions that attack ozone.
"No-one has ever thought about this before...I think there is a potential for mass starvation," he cautioned.
Endorsing Helfand’s views, John Pike, director of the US think tank, globalsecurity.org, said the fallout
from a nuclear war between India and Pakistan "would be far more devastating for other countries
than generally appreciated."
"Local events can have global consequences," he added.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 24
Scholars India Modeling DA

India Key to Global Economy


Indian economic growth is key to the global economy
Srinivasan`6 (T.N., Stanford University, Working Paper No. 286 China, India and the World Economy, July 2006,
http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:4TaC67MOChYJ:scid.stanford.edu/pdf/SCID286.pdf)
The IMF (2005) recognizes that policy makers in India are actively seeking to strengthen
India’s global linkages and to accelerate its integration with the World economy. Success
in these efforts would increase the role of India in the World economy. The report
explicitly refers to one of the mechanisms, India’s import demand, through which this
would come about. To wit, A dynamic and open Indian economy would have an important
impact on the world economy. If India continues to embrace globalization and reform,
Indian imports could increasingly operate as a driver of global growth as it is one of a
handful of economies forecast to have a growing working-age population over the next 40
years. Some 75-110 million will enter the labor force in the next decade, which should-
provided these entrants are employed - fuel an increase in savings and investment given
the higher propensity for workers to save.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 25
Scholars India Modeling DA

***AFF Answers***
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 26
Scholars India Modeling DA

N/U – Indian Economy Low


US downturn hurts Indian economy
CNBC News 7/15 (“Bullish on telecom, media, FMCG, banking: Lotus AM” 2008-07-15 12:12:31 Source : IMW/CNBC-TV18
http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/news/mf-interview/bullish-telecommediafmcgbankinglotus-am/20/30/346979 accessed July 15, 2008)
Q: IT has been big problem today. What did you make of the Infosys numbers? Do you see more downside in the sector now? A: The
problem with IT is that there was a strong bounceback and people thought it was an oversold sector but there was no conviction buying.
Funds were not taking positions in IT across the bounceback. Our consistent theory is that one cannot just take positions based on the
rupee-dollar rate. If there is an increase in the credit cycle realizations and if the utilization rate starts
dropping, margins will start hurting and that will have a bigger impact on the sector Most of the
guidance was in line with the expectations of a strong US recovery. Towards the end of the year,
guidance was moving up. But now with in-line guidance coming in, people are getting wary about
whether that kind of a take-off will materialize if the underlying US economy is not doing too well.
The short-term picture, at least for the foreseeable couple of quarters, is hazy until some visibility comes on the
underlying demand and customers to justify a conviction position in this sector. Q: What do you expect by way of global
cues? Are you sensing or smelling some bad news from the US markets? Are you preparing for some severe downside
because the global cues? A: Whenever the government has to step in, it means that the country is in a
major crisis and we are talking huge numbers here. USD 5 trillion of mortgage assets are controlled by two
government entities or semi-government entities. Stock prices are down by 75% already. We expect
shareholders to pay in the Bear Stearns case.

High inflation hurting Indian economy


Smith 7/13 (“Near-term risks rising in Mideast, India and China but the fundamentals remain excellent”
Author: Justin Smith Published: 13-07-2008 Source: BI-ME Buisiness Intelligence Middle East. www.bi-me.com/doc_print.php?id=22419
accessed July 15, 2008)
Dangerously high inflation Both India and China are tightening because of inflation. Inflation in India
hit a 13-year high of 11.63% in June, more than 600bps above the RBI's comfort zone. China's CPI moved
up 7.7% year-on-year in May. In China, most of the current push in CPI is coming from food (although we
should be more concerned about non-food factory gate prices now rising at over 8%). In India, while food
prices are rising too the big driver of the wholesale price index is fuel and raw materials, which are
filtering down to the household level more quickly than in China. Fuel prices were hiked in India in
February (by a nominal 3% to 5% for gasoline and HSD) and more recently in June (by 9% to17%), while
Beijing recently hiked retail gas prices by almost 17% in June, after a 20% move in November 2007. Both
governments have tried to delay these hikes but with global oil likely to remain above US$120 for the
next few months, more hikes will have to come. If India passes on the full impact of global oil prices to
the local consumer, inflation could easily approach 25%. What is even more worrying in India's case is
that since aggregate demand is still strong, wages are rising.

Indian growth low


CNBC News 7/15 (“Bullish on telecom, media, FMCG, banking: Lotus AM” 2008-07-15 12:12:31 Source : IMW/CNBC-TV18
http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/news/mf-interview/bullish-telecommediafmcgbankinglotus-am/20/30/346979 accessed July 15, 2008)
The markets got off to a volatile start this week. Traders remained tentative on the back of more bad
news from the US financial sectors. The Nifty closed at 4,039 down 9 points, while the Sensex shut shop at
13,330 down 139 points. Ajay Bagga, CEO, Lotus AM, said things are looking pretty bad globally.
"The situation is grim in terms of financials in the US. Any deterioration there could see a further sell-
off, and emerging markets would face the brunt of it. Things are not looking too good in the short-term
for Indian markets as well. It will stay largely determined by global cues and that is not a short-term
remedy which can be corrected in the short-term. It is going to take time and India will follow in that
sequence.".
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 27
Scholars India Modeling DA

N/U – Consumer Confidence Low


Consumer confidence low
Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team
(25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July
15, 2008)
MUMBAI: The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index has found that consumer confidence in
India has fallen by 11 points to 122, the lowest level in the last five runs of the survey. The Nielsen
Global Consumer Confidence Index measures consumer confidence, major concerns and spending habits in
511 countries. 42 per cent of the Indian online consumers who took part in the survey believe that
India is currently in an economic recession. Globally the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index
dropped to 88, down six points in the last six months. This is the largest single drop the Index has
recorded in the last three years. India dropped from 133 points in the last leg of the survey in
November 2007 to 122 points. Across countries, the US suffered the biggest fall in Confidence Index,
dropping 17 points. Overall, Asia Pacific consumers are still amongst the most confident in the world. Five
out of the global top 10 countries hail from Asia Pacific and the overall total for the region is one point above
the global average.

Global recession driving down Indian consumer confidence


Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team
(25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July
15, 2008)
58 per cent of Indian respondents do not think that their country is in an economic recession now. When
asked, out of these 58 per cent, 38 per cent consider a global recession likely to hit India in the next 12
months. Regionally in Asia Pacific, two in five (42 per cent) of the consumers believe that their country
is currently in the midst of a recession. During times of economic slowdown, Indian consumers rank
inflation as their biggest concern (69 per cent), this being the tenth highest percentage globally for a
country worrying about inflation. “India's inflation rate of 8.1 per cent is the highest in several years. In
a country where economies are growing on an unprecedented scale, concerns about inflation are
understandable as this may mark a stop in the Indian growth story,” said Panchal.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 28
Scholars India Modeling DA

No Link – India won’t model


India won’t model US energy policy – they see the economic detriment
Senate Document 7 (Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, “New Analysis: Carbon Mandate
would harm Consumers, jobs, economy, Nov 15, lexis)

"The energy supply crisis in the United States is sending jobs to China, destroying our manufacturing
communities and forcing consumers to pay even higher energy bills. If we pass cap-and-trade
legislation without increasing energy supplies, our country could face an economic catastrophe, and
what's left of our good-paying jobs could vanish."
Senator Barrasso: "There is no incentive in this bill for China and India to follow our lead if we are
going to weaken our economy, lose jobs, and penalize companies. Hard-working taxpayers need clean,
affordable energy, period. Wyoming has tremendous energy resources which cannot be ignored.

India will never implement policies to reduce emissions

Dessler 6 (Andrew: associate professor in the Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University
http://sciencepoliticsclimatechange.blogspot.com/2006/07/getting-china-and-india-onboard.html)
You often hear the statement that China and India will never sign on to any agreement that requires
them to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions because it will hurt their economic growth. See, for example,
this editorial, where they argue: Consider China and India, the world's emerging economic powerhouses.
Ecstatic over their rapid ascent from mass poverty, both nations do not see shuttering their
manufacturing and industrial plants to remedy a problem created mostly by the United States and
Europe as an opportunity. They see it as a bad joke. So Beijing opens about one new coal-fueled power
plant each week and New Delhi reduces environmental regulations on the mining industry and both
tolerate air pollution so extreme it makes Los Angeles seem like Eden.

India views the United States as losing leadership – they don’t want to emulate our policies
anymore

Mahbubani 7 (Kishore: Dean at the LKY School of Public Policy http://www.globalenvision.org/library/8/1436)


A century ago, we lived in the Western era of human history. Japan emerged as a Western power because there seemed to be
no alternative to Western power in 1868. Japanese Meiji reformer Yukichi Fukuzawa said: "Our immediate policy, therefore, should be to lose no
time in waiting for the enlightenment of our neighbouring countries in order to join them in developing Asia, but rather to depart from their ranks
and cast our lot with the civilized countries of the West. Sun Yat Sen also acknowledged superiority of the West: "We, the modern people of
China, are all useless, but if in the future we use Western civilization as a model, we can easily turn weakness into strength, and the old into the
new. Similarly, India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru said: "The search for the sources of India's strength and for her deterioration and
decay is long and intricate. Yet the recent causes of that decay are obvious enough. She fell behind in the march of technique, and Europe, which
had long been backward in many matters, took the lead in technical progress.3 Would these Asian statesmen, if alive today, readily acknowledge
the superiority of the West? With the West losing its magical place in the human imagination, it is also likely that the
desire to emulate the West will diminish in India and the rest of the world. India will continue with some of the
finest political traditions it has inherited from the West: Democracy, a respect for human rights and respect
for the rule of law. But increasingly, Indians will claim these traditions as their own, just as Western
philosophers happily accepted the work of Islamic rationalists and claimed their ideas as their own.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 29
Scholars India Modeling DA

No Link – No Modeling
Election year means no substantial changes in Indian energy policy
Hindustan Times 7/8 (Gaurav Choudhury, Hindustan Times New Delhi, July 08, 2008 Last Updated: 20:14 IST(8/7/2008) “Left turn
is all right for industry” With inputs from Indulal PM in Mumbai) http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print.aspx?Id=5e114454-aec7-
4d26-a1d1-722d57674914 © Copyright 2007 Hindustan Times accessed July 15, 2008)
Some industry captains and analysts said with elections round the year, not many of these initiatives would get a heads up, while many
felt otherwise. “We are concerned about the declining business confidence in the economy and extremely worried about any developing
governance vacuum emerging out of this political crisis,” President of Federation of India Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci)
Rajeev Chandrashekhar said. Among other proposals, the Left parties have been strongly opposing opening the floodgates for foreign
direct investment (FDI) in retail, fearing it would hurt the interests of neighbourhood kirana stores. A government-commissioned study
carried out by Indian Council for Research in International Economic Relations however, found that big corporations’ retail foray would
not drive away small stores out of business. Organised retailers are hoping the Left’s withdrawal of support would open up the sector
further. “We believe the government has chance to open up some sectors," said Kishore Biyani, Managing Director of Future Group that
runs the Big Bazaar chain of stores. JSW Steel Vice Chairman and President of Assocham Sajjan Jindal said the withdrawal of support
from the Left was anticipated. “We support the nuclear deal in the interest of country and whosoever supports the government on this
issue, deserves to be praised,” Jindal said. Economists also felt that the fresh political developments were unlikely to
have any bearing on the broader economy. “The momentum in the economy has more to do with
external factors such as oil prices and less with domestic political developments,” said Delhi-based
economist TK Bhaumik. He said the government would most likely maintain a “status quo” on the
economic policy front. “With elections not many months away, the government would adopt a
pragmatic approach and maintain the current stand on many politically contentious matters,” he said.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 30
Scholars India Modeling DA

No Link - No Modeling – Enron


Enron turned Asia off of modeling the U.S.
Morris`2 (Regan, Associated Press, Enron collapse casts doubt on American model for deregulating energy in Asia,
January 23, 2002, Lexis)
Cronyism, cooking the books, nepotism - when it comes to corrupt business practices, Asia is infamous.
With reports of corruption swirling around the bankruptcy of Enron Corp., many around the continent are
chuckling at the energy giant's failure to practice what it and other American companies preach - good
corporate governance, deregulation and freewheeling competition. The scandal is immediately affecting Enron
subsidiaries in Asia's energy sector. Moreover - on top of the California energy crisis - the Enron debacle has led
many in the region to rethink the American path of energy deregulation that Asian nations had begun to adopt.
"Obviously what's happened with Enron is going to affect the way that regulators think," said Rohan Dalziell, a
Hong Kong-based power analyst with ABN Amro. "It will cause regulators to go back and review criteria. It will
slow down the process." Asia's power generation has historically been closely guarded by governments, and
many operations were bloated and inefficient. But Asian governments had been embracing Enron's creed:
open up power sectors to competition in hopes of higher investment returns and lower consumer costs. Now, a
slower deregulation process will likely mean more years of power monopolies and possibly higher prices for
consumers throughout Asia. Immediately, the future of some of Enron's power plants and other assets in Asia
remains uncertain, analysts say. The company's trading office in Singapore has filed for bankruptcy, as have Enron
Japan Corp. and its three Japanese affiliates. Enron's stake in a joint venture in South Korea is for sale, and the
Philippines government is thinking of taking over Enron's stake in a venture there. A dlrs 2.9 billion electricity
plant in India raises questions about Enron's dealings there. Enron subsidiary Dabhol Power Co. - the largest
foreign investment project in India - already was at the center of a dispute between Enron and India. The
plant, which operated briefly and has yet to be fully built, triggered charges of bribe taking on both sides. Enron
claims the plant's sole customer - the Maharashtra State Electricity Board - failed to pay its bills and the Indian
federal government did not honor payment guarantees. The electricity board claims that Enron's prices were too high
and the contract needed to be renegotiated. The government has a claim against Enron because it stopped providing
electricity. Some in Asia see the Enron scandal reflecting on the whole business ethic that Americans have espoused
for the rest of the world. "The United States will no longer be able to preach about crony capitalism or
corporate governance," read a recent editorial in India's Business Standard newspaper. "And while there's
little doubt that we have no dearth of cronyism in India, for the moment, at least, it is those who supported
Enron's Dabhol misadventure who are squirming." In Asia, Enron had a cult following and its business methods
were widely studied. Indy Sarker, a Hong Kong-based energy analyst with Deutsche Bank AG, says too may people
"went gaga over Enron" and foolishly admired its high-risk investment strategies. Enron's large appetite for risk
was not restricted by American regulators, and analysts say that Asian regulators are likely to be more
conservative after the Enron collapse. ABN Amro's Dalziell says Asian regulators may also feel lost because they
will have to create a new model for deregulation. "Everybody right up until the beginning of last year was following
the American model of competition," he said. "But then you had two things ... the California crisis where energy
prices were forced through the roof and companies (were) close to bankruptcy. Secondly you had the Enron
collapse." Asian state-run power companies are generally not working well either, he says, because they're
"producing very low returns." Vijay Sethu, a former Enron official in Singapore, agreed regulators will likely
come up with a more conservative plan for Asian energy and - in the absence of Enron - will have a hard time
salvaging the free-market dogma. "When it came to deregulation and competition, it was Enron," he says. "They
were the real champions."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 31
Scholars India Modeling DA

Turn – Oil dependence bad for Indian econ


Diversifying away from oil key to Indian econ

South Asai Biz 6 (May 10, http://www.southasiabiz.com/2006/05/indian_oil_import_expense_beco.html)


In 2005-06 Indian oil import bill reached to $44.64 billion and it was 52% more than the previous year.
In last fiscal year, 99.4 million tonnes of crude oil were imported by India for a price of $ 38.77 billion
while 11.67 million tonnes of petroleum products cost for $ 5.86 billion. In 2004-05, India imported 95.86 million
tonnes of crude oil for $ 25.98 billion while was spent to import 10.47 million tonnes of petroleum products. This statistics has been
published by Petroleum Ministry and here we can see that there has a slight increase in import quantity but the increase in price is too
much. 52% is really not a matter of joke. If the price of oil continues to rise or even remain at this level then
Indian economy is going be badly affected- there is no doubt about it. If India wants to sustain
The billion dollar question is: What should Indian government do now?
Indian government should try to attract massive foreign investment in exploration of gas, coal and oil in India.
India should seriously engage itself with the Middle Eastern countries and its neighboring countries to secure a long term deal of oil and
gas.
Indian government should think of investing more on hydro electricity projects in Bhutan.
Indian government should allocate more fund in the research and generation of alternative energy
sources like wind energy. India is already the fourth largest producer of wind energy in the world.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 32
Scholars India Modeling DA

Turn - Renewables Key to Indian Economy


Renewable energy key to fuel India’s economy
Kalshian`6 (Rakesh, Info Change.com, India News Service, Introduction: Energy versus emissions: The big challenge of the
new millennium, June 2006, Lexix)
Admittedly, energy is a complex subject and there are no easy answers to these questions. A mix of
foresight, courage and inventiveness will determine what forms of energy India chooses to power its
economic growth with and whether it could leapfrog into a sustainable energy regime without losing its
competitive edge in the world economy. But the way things are moving now, the future doesn’t look all
that bright and sustainable. A draft report on energy policy authored by Kirit S Parekh, member (energy) of
the Planning Commission, paints a rather dismal picture. For instance, in the business-as-usual scenario,
India will exhaust its oil reserves in 22 years, its gas reserves in 30 years and its much-vaunted coal
reserves in 80 years. More alarming, the coal reserves might disappear in less than 40 years if India
continues to grow at 8% a year. But things might begin to look up if India is able to harness alternative
energy sources, such as hydel, biofuels, solar energy, and even nuclear energy. For instance, it estimates that
wind energy can generate 10 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) and energy plantations could contribute
30 to 60 mtoe from about 10 million hectares. This would not only create livelihoods but also provide
income in the form of carbon credits that can be sold at 20 euros per tonne of carbon dioxide. Solar
energy could contribute a useful 2.4 billion tonnes of oil equivalent for 10 million hectares, says the report. In
the long run, so several gurus of energy have predicted, India may have to move towards greater use of
renewable forms of energy, for which it has abundant resources. Globally, the renewable energy
industry is no longer in a state of infancy, with global investments in 2004 totaling $28 billion as compared
to $6 billion in 1995. Total installed capacity based on renewable energy was 155,000 MW in 2004, of which
wind power itself totaled 48,000 MW. A focused, goal-oriented programme of R&D would bring down
costs of renewable energy devices and meet the needs of a diverse range of applications and customers.
The Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol was supposed to provide the necessary
impetus to popularising renewable technologies in countries like India, but unfortunately, renewable
energy CDM projects are conspicuous by their absence.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 33
Scholars India Modeling DA

Turn – Indian Alt. Energy key to stop warming


Indian emissions reductions key to solve catastrophic warming

International Herald Tribune 7 (Nov 16, Elisabeth Rosenthal, The New York Times Media Group)
The average global temperature will rise to a devastating level by 2030 if China and India do not begin
curbing energy use and carbon emissions immediately, according to a prediction by officials of the
International Energy Agency.
Speaking at the World Energy Congress, the officials forecast Wednesday that 60 percent of the global
increase in emissions from 2005 to 2030 would come from India and China.
By next year, China will overtake the United States as the leader in carbon emissions, said the Paris-based
agency, which was founded by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Some studies
suggest that this has already occurred.
Citing a report from the agency last week, the officials said that if current development trends continued
unchanged, total carbon emissions would rise by 57 percent by 2030, leading to a global temperature
increase of 6 degrees Celsius, or 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations entity that presents its final report in
Valencia, Spain, on Saturday, has estimated that global emissions would cause warming of 1.8 to 4 degrees
Celsius by the end of the century. Many scientists say 2 degrees is the threshold beyond which there
would be significant social and economic disruption.
The agency officials said that by 2015, China, the United States and India would rank first, second and
third, respectively, in global emissions, accounting for more than half the world's total.
''So without moving these three countries, we should expect no realistic results in reducing emissions,''
said Fatih Birol, chief economist of the agency and the report's chief author.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 34
Scholars India Modeling DA

Turn - ↑ Growth=War
India’s economic growth increases the chances of conflict-Military spending and nationalism
Gulf News`3 (Gulf News, HUSAIN HAQQANI The writer is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Endow-ment for International
Peace in Washington D.C. He served as ambassador to Sri Lanka and as adviser to Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir
Bhutto., GLOOMY OUTLOOK FOR S. ASIA, March 29, 2003)
India's relative economic health could encourage anti-Pakistan hardliners in New Delhi to try and
"spend Pakistan into the ground" - a calculated policy of increasing the cost of military competition to
the point where Pakistan's economy collapses completely. India is already turning increasingly towards
Hindu nationalism, which is further aggravating ties with Pakistan. Inadequately performing
economies in South Asia also create the risk of India and Pakistan externalising the resentments of
their people. Instead of allowing such frightening prospects manifest themselves as reality, both need to start
looking at ways to minimise the unsettling effects of the global economic turndown on South Asia's
precarious political and social balance.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 35
Scholars India Modeling DA

No India/Pakistan War

India and Pakistan won’t go to war-The nukes made them think


Business Recorder`2k (Global News Wire, WHAT FORCES INDIA, PAKISTAN TO BACK DOWN IN KASHMIR?,
December 27, 2000 Lexis)
Last year India and Pakistan almost fought a war over Kashmir. Now they appear set to make peace,
with India extending its unilateral cease-fire against separatist groups there, and now Pakistan
beginning to withdraw its troops. Why the change? "These are the most hopeful developments in years,
and I think they're occurring because of how close the two sides came to another war last year over
Pakistan's Kargil incursion. There seems to be a realisation now that both sides will lose badly if there
is another war. And of course the fact that both sides now have nuclear weapons creates an added
anxiety. There's a better understanding by the leadership in both India and Pakistan that something has
to be done to reduce Kashmir's potential to be flash point that ignites conflict between the two. And, of
course, the Americans have helped both sides come to this realisation."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 36
Scholars India Modeling DA

War inevitable - Kashmir


The Kashmir question makes war inevitable
Business Recorder`2k (Business Recorder, London Financial Times, PAKISTAN READY TO TAKE BOLD
INITIATIVES ON KASHMIR: SOUTH NEEDS NORTH'S HELP TO GET RID OF DEBT BURDEN: CHIEF EXECUTIVE
ADDRESSES UN'S MILLENNIUM SUMMIT, September 7, 2000, Lexis)
KASHMIR: The Chief Executive called for a peaceful settlement of Kashmir dispute and said Pakistan was
ready to take bold initiatives to change the status quo through dialogue with India. He said this while
addressing the UN Millennium Summit and added that Kashmir was crying for justice even after 52 years.
"Pakistan stands for peace and is prepared to take bold initiatives to change the status quo through a
dialogue with India at any level, any time and anywhere," General Musharraf told a galaxy of leaders from
across the globe. The Chief Executive said, "Kashmir, the root cause of tension, has to be resolved. Ten
million people of the state cannot be denied their fundamental right to self-determination." During his
speech, he dwelt on the democracy and corruption describing the later "a transnational crime, which required
concerted endeavours." "Let me commit at this world forum, that we desire a 'No War Pact'; we are ready for
a mutual reduction of forces; and we also seek a South Asia free from all nuclear weapons. Pakistan shall not
be drawn into an arms race, nuclear or conventional, irrespective of provocation," he said. The savage
brutalities and killing of 70,000 people by 700,000 troops, he said, have only hardened the Kashmiris resolve.
said, when one party to a dispute is intransigent in rejecting the use of peaceful means, "the Security Council
is empowered to act." "The problem lies not in the Charter, but in lacking of political will. Until we produce
that will, all talk of crisis prevention and dispute resolution will ring hollow," he told the Millennium
Summit. General Musharraf said people of Jammu and Kashmir seek honouring of the pledge made to them
by the United Nations. "If the people of East Timor could be given their freedom, why not the people of
Kashmir?" he asked. This august body has resolved many major disputes and conflicts. In recent years, UN
intervention arrested massive human tragedies in Bosnia and Kosovo. Wherever there has been a departure
from the UN Charter and defiance of UN decisions, dispute has festered, often leading to conflict. Of these,
Kashmir and Palestine are the two prime examples, but with a difference. "Whereas the international
community and this world body are seriously engaged in finding a solution to the Palestine issue, Kashmir
cries for justice even after 52 years," he said. He said South Asian region was embroiled in conflict
because the people of Kashmir had been denied justice. This issue had led to the four wars in the
region. "While the global trend is for economic progress through regional co-operation, South Asia is
embroiled in conflict, " said the Chief Executive. Pakistanis located in the world's most volatile region
where one-fifth of humanity lives in a state of economic deprivation, he said. "The region stands heavily
militarised, even nuclearised,' which was certainly not of Pakistan's making," he added. "We have been
obliged to respond to the compulsions of our security and have merely acted in self-defence," said General
Musharraf.