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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

Oil DA – Index
Oil DA – Index ......................................................................................................................................................................................1
___**Oil Prices DA**___.....................................................................................................................................................................2
Oil DA – 1NC (1/2) ...............................................................................................................................................................................3
Oil DA – 1NC (2/2) ...............................................................................................................................................................................4
2NC Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................................5
2NC Turns Case.....................................................................................................................................................................................6
2NR Turns Case.....................................................................................................................................................................................7
Uniqueness EXT – Alternative Energy Low..........................................................................................................................................8
Uniqueness EXT – Brink ......................................................................................................................................................................9
Uniqueness EXT – Prices Low............................................................................................................................................................10
OPEC Link Extensions.........................................................................................................................................................................11
OPEC Internal Link Extensions ..........................................................................................................................................................12
Recession Internal Link EXT ..............................................................................................................................................................13
Impact – Economy ..............................................................................................................................................................................14
Impact – Food Prices ...........................................................................................................................................................................15
Impact – Protectionism .......................................................................................................................................................................16
___**Oil Prices AFF Answers**___...................................................................................................................................................17
AFF – 2AC Non-Unique......................................................................................................................................................................18
AFF – 1AR Non-Unique......................................................................................................................................................................19
AFF – 2AC Link Turn .........................................................................................................................................................................20
AFF – 2AC No Internal Link ..............................................................................................................................................................21
AFF – 1AR No Internal Link ..............................................................................................................................................................22
AFF – 2AC OPEC Link Turn...............................................................................................................................................................23
AFF – 2AC OPEC No Internal Link ..................................................................................................................................................24
AFF – 2AC Prices Self-Correcting......................................................................................................................................................25

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

___**Oil Prices DA**___

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

Oil DA – 1NC (1/2)


(A) Uniqueness – gas prices are going down but we’re still on the brink – an unexpected jolt in prices
could produce an economic recession
NYT, 6-19-08
[“Driving Less, Americans Finally React to Sting of Gas Prices, a Study Says.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html]

The Cambridge Energy report cites some fundamental shifts in consumer behavior that suggest the beginning of an enduring trend.
The report noted that in California, where gasoline prices have historically led the rest of the country, gasoline consumption has declined
for two consecutive years and hybrid vehicle sales are rising.
Now the rest of the country seems to be following. Sales of pickup trucks, minivans and sport utility vehicles have fallen below 50 percent of new passenger
vehicle sales this year for the first time since 2001, the report says, as consumers turned to smaller vehicles in favor of fuel economy.
“It’s kind of stunning,” said Aaron F. Brady, a co-author of the report. “It was over 50 percent as late as February and by May it fell under 44 percent.
It’s like falling off a cliff.”
Drivers, meanwhile, are becoming more prudent in their driving habits, either by using public transportation, carpooling or just cutting down on unnecessary trips,
the two authors said in an interview. “Public transit ridership is surging all over the country,” said Samantha Gross, the other author.
While total vehicle miles Americans traveled grew by nearly 3 percent a year from 1984 to 2004, the rate of growth slowed suddenly in 2005 and 2006 and has
declined since then.
The last time gasoline consumption declined for a prolonged period was during the oil shocks in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when annual United States
consumption declined by 12 percent. Fast-rising oil prices, a deep recession and improved fuel efficiency standards drove down demand for gasoline.
The same situation is beginning to emerge today, according to the report, and basic home economics explains the trends. Since the 1980s, demand for gasoline has
climbed fairly steadily, except in late 1990 and 1991 because of a sharp price increase related to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and a recession. That is because spending
on gasoline became a smaller percentage of family income, especially through the 1990s.
Americans spent about 4.5 percent of their after-tax income on transportation fuels in 1981, according to Global Insight, a forecasting firm. As gasoline prices
dropped and family incomes rose, that percentage dropped to 1.9 percent in 1998. Today, it is back to 4 percent or more.
The national price for unleaded gasoline would need to average $4.23 a gallon “to create the same economic pain as in 1981,” the
Cambridge Energy report said. “Once unthinkable, such a level is now within view.” On Wednesday, gasoline averaged nearly $4.08 a gallon.
It would take a sizable decline in consumption to get back to the levels of gasoline use only a generation ago.

(B) Link – the AFF creates the perfect storm – alternative energy development during a time of
declining consumption is OPEC’s biggest fear
Mufson, ‘6
[Steven. “As OPEC Meets, Fresh Doubts About Its Power.” The Washington Post. September 10, 2006. p. Lexis]

"OPEC knows, through both intuition and experience, that it does not operate in a vacuum," said Alvaro Silva-Calderón, then the secretary
general. "If it wants to sell its oil, then it must attract buyers. And it does not attract buyers by scaring them off, or being unreliable." He added, "Producers need
consumers and consumers need producers."
When he gave that speech, OPEC's price target for a barrel of crude oil ranged from $22 to $28. Three years later, the price of oil has nearly tripled. And
as OPEC prepares to meet on Monday, the group is worried that high oil prices will chase consumers to alternate energy sources,
weaken Western and Asian economies to the point of hurting demand and bring about a boost in supply from non-OPEC countries.

(C) Internal link – OPEC pronouncements are key – they can quickly produce price spikes
AP Financial, 6-26-08
[“AP Financial NewsBrief.” Associated Press Financial Wire. P. Lexis]

Oil prices spike close to $139 after OPEC comment


Oil prices surged Thursday after OPEC's president said oil could hit $170 a barrel and buyers came back into the market after a sharp
drop the day before. A slightly weaker U.S. dollar against the euro and the Japanese yen also helped support prices.

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

Oil DA – 1NC (2/2)


(D) Impact – oil-based recessions have a high probability of escalating into nuclear war
Qasem, ‘7 – Masters in IR from Columbia
[Islam Yasin. 7-9, The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage,
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_islam_ya_070709_the_coming_warfare_o.htm]

Recognizing the strategic value of oil for their national interests, superpowers will not hesitate to unleash their economic and
military power to ensure secure access to oil resources, triggering worldwide tension, if not armed conflict. And while
superpowers like the United States maintain superior conventional military power, in addition to their nuclear power, some weaker
states are already nuclearly armed, others are seeking nuclear weapons. In an anarchic world with many nuclear-weapon states
feeling insecure, and a global economy in downward spiral, the chances of using nuclear weapons in pursuit of national
interests are high.

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

2NC Overview
Extend our New York times evidence – the price of oil has finally fallen after new fears of consumer
demand lowered the price. Our Mufson evidence says OPEC is particularly frightened by the
prospects of a decrease in consumer demand and a simultaneous shift to alternative energy. Our AP
Financial evidence says that OPEC can easily manipulate the market by issuing pronouncements to
purposely raise the price of gas. Our Qasem evidence says that an economic recession produced by oil
would be enough to convince superpowers to unleash their nuclear weapons against one another.

The DA outweighs the AFF –

(a) Timeframe – the plan’s solvency takes forever but the crisis produced by oil at above
$150/barrel would be instantaneous

(b) Probability – oil has already put obvious strains on the US economy as it teeters on the brink of
a recession – history’s greatest wars are produced by economic recessions, not environmental
harm

(c) Magnitude – the only scenario for SUPERPOWER nuclear warfare is one that threatens core
national interests – out of all the international goods, only oil so directly influences the survival
of nations that they would enact desperate survival measures

(d) Turns the case – a global nuclear war would eliminate the biosphere

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2NC Turns Case


The DA turns the case – OPEC will manipulate prices to undermine the AFF
FREERKS, ‘8 – DIRECTOR of RENTECH CORP.
[ROBERT L. “LIQUID FUEL FROM COAL.” CQ Congressional Testimony. September 5, 2007, p. Lexis]

Federal policies and programs that can help to provide the needed certainty can take several forms. The first, and most natural, would be for the
Department of Defense to enter into long term supply contracts with F-T fuel producers. There are several bi- partisan proposals to enable this, including extension
of the Department's contracting authority from its current 5 year limit to 25 years. Next would be the establishment of a program similar to that proposed by
Representatives Boucher and Shimkus to create a "price collar" program which would protect producers from a dramatic drop in oil prices and taxpayers through a
revenue sharing mechanism when prices exceed a certain level.
Extending the extending the existing alternative fuels excise tax credit, which covers F-T fuels and is set to expire in the fall of 2009, to 2020 would also
provide a level of protection for investors from potential OPEC price manipulation intended to undermine U.S. alternative
energy programs.

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

2NR Turns Case


Extend the 2NC Freerks evidence – OPEC will initiate price manipulation to undermine US
alternative energy programs

Specifically, OPEC will dim the allure of the plan’s incentives


The Gazette, ’00
[“Tech stocks swoon: Nortel, BCE help drag Toronto down; GE keeps Dow lit up.” March 30, 2000, p. Lexis]

Oil-and-gas producers rose as investors judged that a pledged increase in oil production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries [OPEC] will lead to stable prices. Talisman Energy Inc. gained $2.60 to $38.45 and Suncor Energy Inc. rose $2.20 to $58.75.

Ballard Power Systems Inc. slipped with fuel-cell shares in the U.S. after OPEC's pledge diminished the allure of alternate fuel
sources. Ballard fell $19.85 to $115.15 while Global Thermoelectric, which produces fuel- cell-powered generators for remote locations,
dropped $4.90 to $31.70.

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

Uniqueness EXT – Alternative Energy Low


Alternative energy is constrained in the status quo – it isn’t enough to effect demand
Africa News, 6-30-‘08
[“South Africa; High Oil Prices 'Could Put Country in Recession'” June 30, 2008, p. Lexis]

According to Cees Bruggemans, chief economist at First National Bank, the rising price of oil would contribute to the local economy's
potential to slide into a recession.
Vunani Securities chief economist Johan Rossouw said the rising oil price was pushing SA's inflation higher, and this would slow economic growth. His forecast
for consumer price inflation less mortgage costs (CPIX) next month was 13,2%.
But without a fuel price hike, CPIX was forecast at 12,7%. This meant fuel could account for a 50-basis-point rise in CPIX.
Last month's CPIX was 10,9%
Standard Bank group economist Goolam Ballim said high oil prices would lead to lower consumer spending in the next few quarters. Ballim forecast the medium-
term equilibrium price for oil to be closer to $100 a barrel, rather than $150 a barrel.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has said oil prices could rise to $150-$170 in the next few months.
Rossouw said investors should be hedging against the risk of a higher oil price and treading very carefully in the equities market. The scenario ahead was bearish
and over the next 12 months equities would remain low with negative market returns expected, he said.
Speculative futures trading had played a significant role in the rise of the oil price, he said. "Oil has developed into a new asset class. Not only oil, but all
commodities."
Bruggemans agreed the market was driving up the price of oil by speculating on supply constraints, and warned the supply situation was unlikely to change soon.
In any case, he said, non-Opec oil suppliers or alternative fuels (such as biofuels) had not succeeded in meeting demand.
Bruggemans said demand did not appear to be declining because it was to a large extent being driven by growing emerging markets such as China. He said Chinese
consumers were not feeling the pinch of the increasing oil price because of government subsidies, which could be sustained because of China's large current
account surplus.

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

Uniqueness EXT – Brink


The plan happens at the worst imaginable time – OPEC is being pummeled and the only consolation
they have is awaiting the results of new studies on alternative energy
European Report, 6-25-’08
[“EU/OPEC : ENERGY DIALOGUE BEARS LITTLE FRUIT.” P. Lexis]

Doubts by oil producing nations as to the EU's energy policy, and the concentration on renewables and security of supply, were dispelled somewhat with the EU
presenting its various energy packages. OPEC and EU both acknowledge the "continued" importance of fossil fuels, in particular oil, but "welcomed" the growing
diversity in the energy mix, including renewables. Presenting a 2030 baseline demand scenario, the EU confirmed that its policy
developments will not translate into a reduction in oil imports. OPEC noted that uncertainties of crude oil demand stem mainly from technology,
alternative fuels as well as consuming countries' policies. OPEC received some consolation in the form of an agreement to finalise the terms
of reference for a joint study on the impact of biofuels on oil refining.

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

Uniqueness EXT – Prices Low


Extend the 1NC NYT evidence – the price of gas became so prohibitively high that consumers reduced
gas demand and caused the price to fall

More evidence that we’ve entered demand destruction – it will be a prolonged effect of the economy –
MarketWatch, 7-2-’08
[“Oil demand may be a victim of its own success.” P. Nexis]
Demand destruction
Oil traders have been keeping a close watch on demand for any signs that the high prices for oil and gasoline have been causing
consumers to cut back on spending.
The average U.S. retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline climbed to a fresh record level of $4.092 Wednesday -- that's up over 38% from a year ago, according
to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report.
"It is very clear that we have entered a new era in fuels pricing that will take some adjustment from consumers," said Smith. "Change
to these new price levels is already apparent with declining demand in the U.S.," he said.
The International Energy Agency cut its five-year forecast for global oil demand on Tuesday, saying booming oil prices are
causing wealthy countries' drivers to park their gas-guzzlers.

A concrete list of studies and statistics support our side – demand is clearly falling
AP, 6-25-‘08
[“Oil prices steady around $137 in Asia.” P. Lexis]
Investors also awaited the release of U.S. government fuel stocks data later Wednesday expected to show a drop in crude oil inventories.
"The concerns about demand destruction are real in particular in the U.S.," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz
in Singapore. "The market is holding its breath, waiting for the U.S. inventory report."
In a weekly report Tuesday, MasterCard's SpendingPulse survey found that demand for gasoline in the U.S. fell 2.7 percent last week
compared with the same week last year, and is off by an average of 3.6 percent over the last four weeks compared with the same
period in 2007. A litany of recent reports from the U.S. Energy and Transportation departments has offered concrete evidence
American consumers are driving less in response to high prices.

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OPEC Link Extensions


Extend the 1NC Mufson evidence – OPEC is desperately frightened of new alternative energy
development, particularly in markets that are heavy oil consumers like the US

Alternative energy incentives are zero-sum with OPEC consumption – the eventual goal of the AFF is
a world apart from oil – from an article called “Foil OPEC” –
Stuart News, ’00
[“FOIL OPEC BY RELYING ON ALTERNATE ENERGY SOURCES.” September 23, 2000. p. Lexis]
The member countries of OPEC are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. I don't know
about you, but I would not personally trust a person who has the traits of the leaders of any one of these countries with having anything to do with my personal
welfare. Yet, the United States government continually places the welfare of the American people in the hands of these despots.
After more than 25 years of yo-yo oil-crisis blackmail, it is time for our government to take the steps necessary to alleviate us of the
dependence on foreign oil. The government needs to offer inducements for development of alternative sources of energy.
To start with, we should wise up and build more nuclear power plants. France derives more than 77 percent and Sweden 52 percent of their electrical power from
nuclear power plants. The United States derives only 22 percent of its power from nuclear power plants. Fearmongers are responsible for the cutback in building of
nuclear power plants. I suspect that some of the activists who have succeeded in causing the reduction of new nuclear power plants have more devious motives
regarding our future than they acknowledge.
In addition, there are countless other energy opportunities that our government could encourage with proper incentives. Whatever the
cost, it could never be greater than the current, and even greater future potential costs that we will incur at the hands of the dysfunctional and,
in almost all cases, despotic OPEC governments.

OPEC definitively ‘loses’ in the world of the AFF – from a US policy-maker –


Gregg, ’08 – U.S. Senator (R-NH)
[Judd. “GREGG SUPPORTS AMENDMENTS TO REDUCE GAS PRICES AND EASE DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL.”
States News Service. May 13, 2008, p. Lexis]

Although we agreed on temporarily halting deposits into the SPR which will hopefully have some effect on fuel prices, I am disappointed that my Democratic
colleagues do not see eye-to-eye with me on providing more U.S. oil and gas supplies for hardworking American families. The basic laws of supply and
demand can no longer be ignored. Unless we increase production along with more conservation and alternative fuels, the only real winner
will be OPEC and those that profit from tight supplies and the increasing strain on American pocketbooks.

The AFF stumbles over OPEC tripwires – it would show the system is failing and prompt internal
debate within OPEC
Miskel, ‘4 – professor of national-security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College and
[James. The Providence Journal (Rhode Island). “COMMENTARY - Cutting oil imports no cure-all.” May 27, 2004. p. Lexis]

The Gulf governments know that the real issue is oil itself, not the source of the oil. They know that when prices get too high, oil-consuming
countries reduce oil consumption, through conservation and increased energy efficiency, and invest in alternate fuels. That is why the Gulf
countries and their partners in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC] have historically tried to regulate production --
so as to keep oil prices from falling too low or rising too high. Fear that prices may be getting high enough to kick-start investments in
conservation and fuel switching is the reason why OPEC is talking now about increasing production.

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OPEC Internal Link Extensions


Extend the 1NC AP Financial evidence – OPEC chooses its pronouncements wisely to ratchet up prices
– the last major OPEC pronouncement caused a flurry of activity that produced the first steps of the
price spike

Additionally, the US has no power to restrain OPEC – previous legislation was vetoed
Atlanta Journal-Constitution, ‘08
[“Oil executives interrogated; Senate panel asks why prices are up so much. CEOs: Not their fault; it's 'world market.'” May 22,
2008 – p. Lexis]

Last week, a measure to stop filling the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve was passed with such strong bipartisan support that Bush signed it even as he
reiterated his opposition. On Tuesday, the House voted 324-84 for so-called "NOPEC" legislation, aimed at outlawing price manipulation by the
[OPEC] Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The White House already has promised a veto.
Although Democrats and Republicans are offering an array of proposals aimed at improving the energy outlook over the long term, there is little Congress
can do in the short term.
Today the House Judiciary committee will hold another hearing to grill oil executives.

OPEC has the ability to manipulate the price of oil – the status quo proves it
Washington Times, ’08
[“Price at the pump likely to reach $4.” April 9, 2008, p. Lexis]

While the government forecaster foresees high fuel prices as a permanent fixture of the world economy, many private forecasters say
they are befuddled by the relentless rise in prices which they think are defying the laws of economics, particularly with slumping demand in the U.S.
Many private forecasters attribute high prices to manipulation by the [OPEC] Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and
speculation in the oil market, which reached record levels in the first quarter.
Joe Stanislaw, an independent energy adviser to Deloitte & Touche, calculates that the physical realities of supply and demand point to
an oil price of $50 a barrel. The possibility of supply disruptions due to political strife in Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria might add another $10. Anything
above that, he argues, is due to oil's popularity as an investment.

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Recession Internal Link EXT


The economy is EXTREMELY vulnerable to OPEC manipulation
Business Week Online, ‘8
[“The Economy: Back to 1979?” May 20, 2008, p. Lexis]

Still, as the old saying goes, history


may not repeat itself but it frequently rhymes. For instance, it was during this speech that Carter
announced the creation of the Energy Dept., which quickly evolved into a massive, hidebound bureaucracy. And it was after September
11 that President Bush created another giant, dysfunctional bureaucracy, the Homeland Security Dept.
It's also striking how much hasn't changed in three decades. Politicians are still calling for "energy independence" even though the economy is
now more dependent on foreign oil than ever -- certainly much more than in 1979. The economy remains vulnerable to the price
manipulations of OPEC nations and other oil producers.

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Impact – Economy
Higher oil prices undermine the foundation of consumer confidence
Chicago Tribune, ‘07
[“Oil detours from road up to $100: Forecast for lower demand, possibility of OPEC supply increase cited in Tuesday's slide.”
November 14, 2007, p. Lexis]

The consequences of high oil prices are "a little more like termites as opposed to something more dramatic," said Carl Steidtmann, chief
economist at Deloitte Research in New York. "It just slowly eats away at the foundation of consumer spending, and that will obviously
continue to happen."
Steidtmann noted that high energy costs are helping push up the cost of food, while many consumers also are getting squeezed because of higher
mortgage payments and less access to credit.

Consumer confidence is make or break in the new economy


Depew, ‘8 – former analyst at Dorsey & Wright and broker at AIG and PaineWebber
[Kevin. Re-printed in an article titled “Price Increases, or Margin Squeezes?” May 20 @
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/consumer_spending/index.html]

Kevin takes the spread between the index of Finished Goods, less the cost inputs of the raw materials (Crude Goods).
The spread has flipped negative in 2003, and has significantly widened since then. This suggests that inflationary price pressures are building,
mostly due to higher raw material costs. Ordinarily, there is often a lag between pass-through costs, and pricing pressures -- but the current situation represents an
extreme.
This leaves manufactures with one of two options: They can raise prices, or they can suffer margin pressure.
"This shows increasing pressure on producers to rein in raw materials costs that are not keeping pace with finished goods costs. In
other words, the pass through of increasing costs is reaching extreme levels. Virtually every conference call we listen to says the same thing. That is
why the consumer is so important now. Corporate profits are getting crushed right as we head into a consumer recession."

The loss of economic growth results in war and extinction


Bearden, 2k
[U.S. Army (Retired), T.E., LTC, U.S. Army, “The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How to Solve It Quickly,” http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3aaf97f22e23.htm,
June 24]

History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions. Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and
number of their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations, are almost certain to
be released. As an example, suppose a starving North Korea launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic
suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China-whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States-attacks Taiwan. In addition to immediate
responses, the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic nuclear studies
have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then
compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side of the MAD coin that is almost
never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its
perceived foes as rapidly and massively as possible. As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs. Today, a great percent
of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed, are already on site within the United States itself. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization
as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades.

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Impact – Food Prices


Higher oil prices undermine consumer confidence and increase the price of food
Chicago Tribune, ‘07
[“Oil detours from road up to $100: Forecast for lower demand, possibility of OPEC supply increase cited in Tuesday's slide.”
November 14, 2007, p. Lexis]

The consequences of high oil prices are "a little more like termites as opposed to something more dramatic," said Carl Steidtmann, chief
economist at Deloitte Research in New York. "It just slowly eats away at the foundation of consumer spending, and that will obviously
continue to happen."
Steidtmann noted that high energy costs are helping push up the cost of food, while many consumers also are getting squeezed because of higher
mortgage payments and less access to credit.

Rising food prices will kill billions


Tampa Tribune ‘96
[Paul Power Jr., “Grain shortage growing problem,” Jan 20, LN]

There are more people in this world than ever, but less grain to feed them. That's kindled fears of a world food crisis, a problem Florida
may help prevent. Poor weather, drought, political unrest and economic shifts have decreased planting, pushing world grain reserves to record lows. Meanwhile, the world's population
grew by 100 million, to 5.75 billion in 1995 - a record increase. Now, miners in West Central Florida are digging out phosphate more quickly, so it can be used to make fertilizer. Analysts
are warning about the increasing possibility of flood or drought in the world's food-producing regions. That can push food prices much higher, both here and abroad, and even cause
famine in the poorest countries. U.S. food prices may rise more than 4 percent this year, ahead of the rate of inflation. "Conditions today indicate that there is at least some vulnerability in
the food supply," said Sara Schwartz, an agricultural economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Corn and soybean production plunged last year in the United States, she said. Wet
weather slowed grain planting in the United States and Canada. Elsewhere, drought and civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa cut production to 20 percent below normal. The European
Union has less than one quarter of the grain reserves it held in 1993. The amount of corn expected to be available in the United States by summer - when corn is harvested - was trimmed
by crop forecasters this week to 507 million bushels, the lowest in 20 years. On a global scale, food supplies - measured by stockpiles of grain - are not abundant. In
1995, world production failed to meet demand for the third consecutive year, said Per Pinstrup-Andersen, director of the International Food Policy Research
Institute in Washington, D.C. As a result, grain stockpiles fell from an average of 17 percent of annual consumption in 1994-1995 to 13 percent at the end of the 1995-1996 season, he
said. That's troubling, Pinstrup-Andersen noted, since 13 percent is well below the 17 percent the United Nations considers essential to provide a margin of safety in world food security.
During the food crisis of the early 1970s, world grain stocks were at 15 percent. "Even if they are merely blips, higher international prices can hurt poor
countries that import a significant portion of their food," he said. "Rising prices can also quickly put food out of reach of the 1.1 billion
people in the developing world who live on a dollar a day or less."

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Impact – Protectionism
New studies show high oil prices have the ability to produce war in 33 different countries – this causes
those countries to enact protectionist barriers as a last resort
STEKETEE, 6-20-08 – NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR
[Mike. “Crude uncertainties.” Weekend Australian. P. Lexis]

The oil boom has been accompanied by a commodities boom, meaning that, as a net commodities exporter, Australia has been all right, Jack. But that
does not make us immune from the global consequences of continued high oil prices.

With an estimated 850 million people short of food, the World Bank says an additional 33 countries are at risk of social instability as a result of
high food and oil prices. Countries are introducing trade restrictions to try to limit domestic price rises: a short-term fix that runs the risk of
snowballing into a new wave of protectionism that does long-term damage to the world economy.

Protectionist trade blocs will prompt a global nuclear war


Spicer 96, Former Member of British Parliament
[Michael, The Challenge from the East and the Rebirth of the West, p. 12]

The choice facing the West today is much the same as that which faced the Soviet bloc after World War II: between meeting head-on the
challenge of world trade with the adjustments and the benefits that it will bring, or of attempting to shut out markets that are growing and where a
dynamic new pace is being set for innovative productions. The problem about the second approach is not simply that it won’t hold: satellite technology alone
will ensure that consumers will begin to demand those goods that the East is able to provide most cheaply. More fundamentally, it will guarantee the
emergence of a fragmented world in which natural fears will be fanned and inflamed. A world divided into rigid trade blocs will be
a deeply troubled and unstable place in which suspicion and ultimately envy will possibly erupt into a major war. I do not say that the
converse will necessarily be true, that in a free trading world there will be an absence of all strife. Such a proposition would manifestly be absurd. But to trade is
to become interdependent, and that is a good step in the direction of world stability. With nuclear weapons at two a penny, stability
will be at a premium in the years ahead.

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___**Oil Prices AFF Answers**___

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AFF – 2AC Non-Unique


Non-unique – prices are at record highs and will keep growing
Elphinstone, 7-1
[JW. “Oil prices end down after topping $143 a barrel.” AP. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-
tAD91KJL5G0]

NEW YORK (AP) — The price of crude oil hit yet another record on the last day of a tumultuous first half, spurting past $143 a barrel before
ending lower on demand fears and a resilient dollar. Crude has shot up nearly 50 percent since the start of the year, in large part on the dollar's
troubles, and analysts expect that trend to remain intact as the second half of 2008 begins.

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

AFF – 1AR Non-Unique


Extend the 2AC Elphinstone evidence – prices hit RECORD HIGHS at $143 a barrel at the start of
July – this should have triggered the link

Here’s more evidence that prices are up and tons of factors will keep them that way –
CNN, 6-30
[“Oil prices hit new high of $143 a barrel.” http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/06/30/oil.peak.ap/]

Oil prices fluctuated Monday, surging past $143 a barrel for the first time and then falling back as a rising dollar prompted some investors to
sell. Meanwhile, the price of gas at the pump hit another record high.
Consumers face higher prices at the pump as crude oil continues to soar in cost.
Supply concerns, a weak dollar and a fragile global economy continue to drive the price of oil to new highs, as well as continued
tensions in the Middle East. However, oil gave back its gains after the Chicago Purchasing Managers' index of Midwest manufacturing beat estimates and
the dollar responded by rising against the euro.

<Answer the 2NC/1NR uniqueness evidence>

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

AFF – 2AC Link Turn


TURN – alternative energy lowers the price of gas by up to 50 cents a gallon
Thune, ‘8 – US Senator (SD)
[John. “PRESS CONFERENCE WITH SENATOR CHARLES GRASSLEY (R-IA); SUBJECT: ETHANOL PRODUCTION.”
Federal News Service. May 22, 2008. p. Nexis]

And I think it's important that it be stated, too, that the only thing that really has positively impacted the supply of energy in this country
over the past several years is biofuels. We use 140 billion gallons of gasoline every year. We're generating now about 8 billion gallons of ethanol. But
according to studies that have been done -- and of course, one of them that's already been alluded to was published in the Wall Street Journal several weeks
back by Merrill Lynch suggested that gas prices and oil prices would be 15 percent higher today were it not for the impact and the effect of
ethanol. Well, at today's prices, that's about 50 cents a gallon. We don't need less biofuels, we need more biofuels because it's the only
thing that is having a positive impact on the price of gasoline in this country.

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

AFF – 2AC No Internal Link


There are 7 different, independent factors of high oil prices the link can’t account for –
Natural Gas Developing Economies Chinese/Indian demand Political Instability Infrastructure
Shipping Dollar weakness
Agricultural and Food Policy Center, ‘8
[Department of Agricultural Economics @ Texas A&M University. “The Effects of Ethanol on Texas Food and Feed.” April,
http://www.afpc.tamu.edu/pubs/2/515/RR-08-01.pdf.]

No discussion or research on any of these issues would be complete without an overview of the overall energy complex. Oil prices have increased over the last 4
years from $35 per barrel in 2005 to over $100 per barrel in early 2008 (DOE-EIA). The impact of sharply higher oil prices continues to ripple through the
economy as businesses and consumers deal with higher prices. Oil prices alone are an incomplete look at energy markets and the role of higher
prices in the economy. Energy prices from all sources have increased over the same time period. Natural gas prices have increased largely due to
the increased demand for it in the production of electricity. Natural gas is also the major input in producing nitrogen fertilizer. Oil prices reflect
not only increased demand in the growing economies of the developing world, including China and India, but political instability
in major producing countries, refining infrastructure, shipping, and, for the United States, the effect of the weaker dollar on the cost
of imported oil.

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Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

AFF – 1AR No Internal Link


Extend our 2AC AFPC evidence – there are TONS of factors that drive high oil prices that the AFF
doesn’t effect and the NEG doesn’t solve, specifically natural gas development, developing economy
demand, Chinese and Indian demand, political instability, infrastructure, shipping, and the weakness
of the dollar.

Here are more events that effect the price of oil that the NEG can’t solve –

(a) Strait of Hormuz conflict


Elphinstone, 7-1
[JW. “Oil prices end down after topping $143 a barrel.” AP. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-
tAD91KJL5G0]

Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Iran, also continue to boost oil prices. Traders were digesting reported comments from the
commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, who warned that if his country is attacked, Tehran would strike back by barraging Israel with missiles. In a report
published Saturday in the conservative Jam-e-Jam newspaper, Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari said that if Iran were provoked, it would also move to
control a key oil passageway in the Gulf.
Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil exporter and about 60 percent of the world's oil passes through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

(b) Iraqi instability


Elphinstone, 7-1
[JW. “Oil prices end down after topping $143 a barrel.” AP. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-
tAD91KJL5G0]

Global supply also remains a concern. The Iraqi government opened six oil fields to international bidding Monday as the nation attempts to
boost daily production by 60 percent.
The potential participation of big Western companies like BP PLC, Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Total SA in
Iraq's oil industry has been criticized in recent weeks following published reports that several were close to signing no-bid contracts with the Iraqi
government.
Those contracts were expected to be announced Monday, but Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani instead named 35 companies
that would be qualified to bid on service contracts for the oil fields of Rumeila, Zubair, Qurna West, Maysan, Kirkuk and Bay Hassan.

22
Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

AFF – 2AC OPEC Link Turn


Your logic is backwards – OPEC wants to LOWER prices to respond to alternative energy
MarketWatch, ‘7
[“NEWS & COMMENTARY; Markets; Futures Movers.” September 20, 2007. p. Lexis]

On Thursday, October reformulated gasoline closed at $2.1351 a gallon, up 4.17 cents, or 2%. October heating oil closed up 1.56 cents at $2.2609 a gallon.

"As long as inventories of crude keep dropping, I think we can expect the price to keep rising," said Charles Perry, chairman of
energy-consulting firm Perry Management.

But he said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC] is concerned about the price climb. The group of key oil
producers would "really like to se the price fall, and [that] may cause them to increase production," said Perry.

"What OPEC fears is conservation and alternate fuels, both of which are encouraged by higher prices," he said.

23
Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

AFF – 2AC OPEC No Internal Link


No link and turn – OPEC isn’t the cause of high prices, it wants them lowered
Market News International, ‘4
Cites John Lichtblau, chairman of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation
[“Reality Check: US Enrgy Execs: Little Room For Lwr Price.” July 15, 2004. p. Lexis]
"The price pressures are still on the upside -- they will stay high for the remainder of the year," predicted John Lichtblau, chairman of the Petroleum Industry
Research Foundation, an industry-funded think tank. Lichtblau suspects prices will remain in the mid to high $30s for the balance of this year, well above the
mid-$20s band that used to be OPEC's target. But he took pains to point out that OPEC is not a culprit when it comes to current
prices. "There's always an assumption that it's OPEC policy doing this. But OPEC is not the price maker. This is not their idea of
a long-term price level. They would prefer it be closer to thirty dollars because of the impact these prices have on the world economy and the
possibility of a shift from oil to alternate energy sources," he said. "On this one, OPEC is on the side of the consumer -- up to a point."

24
Baylor Debate Institute Oil DA

AFF – 2AC Prices Self-Correcting


High prices are self-correcting
Ritholtz, 6-19 – CEO and Director of Equity Research at FuisonIQ, an online quantitative research firm
[Barry L. His market perspectives are quoted regularly in the Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Forbes, Fortunes, and other print
media, also a professor at New York University's School of Continuing & Professional Studies. “Consumer Sentiment Drops to 28
Year Low.” From The Big Picture, called "The Creme de la Creme of Financial Blogs" by the WSJ.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/consumer_spending/index.html]

Earlier today, we looked at the decrease in miles driven in the US (Chart of the Day: US Miles Driven). Let's put that into some context, and consider a few goings
on in China.
SUV sales may be falling off the cliff in the US, but in China, they are red hot. Sales of the large vehicles in China rose by 40% in the first four
months of this year. That is twice the growth rate for the Chinese passenger car market.
Its no surprise why: The costs of petrol and diesel in China is as much as 40% cheaper than US levels (which are nearly half of European
prices).
China, the second-biggest fuel consumer after the U.S, has been encouraging SUV purchases via subsidized fuel.
That now appears to be changing: The Chinese government will "increase gasoline and diesel prices by 1,000 yuan ($145.50) a ton, the
National Development and Reform Commission said," according to a Bloomberg report. This represents a 17% price increase for gasoline and 18% for diesel.
China is also scheduled to raise jet-fuel prices by 1,500 yuan a ton (~25%).
The response in Crude futures was immediate: Crude Oil fell almost $5, spurring gains in the broad averages.
Demand Destruction is now clearly upon us. Its a cliche, but its true: The best cure for high prices are high prices.

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