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CHKP 7Wk. JRs. UM 08 MNDI Elections- Shared.

Obama Elections Disadvantage- Shared Version

Obama Elections Disadvantage- Shared Version.........................................................................................................1
Obama Elections DA INC............................................................................................................................................3
Obama Elections DA INC CONTINUED....................................................................................................................4
Obama Elections DA INC CONTINUED....................................................................................................................5
Obama Elections Uniqueness- Obama will Win..........................................................................................................6
Obama Elections Uniqueness- Obama will Win..........................................................................................................7
Obama Elections Uniqueness- Obama will Win..........................................................................................................8
Obama Elections Uniqueness- Obama will Win- A2 Hillary Supporters....................................................................9
Obama Elections Uniqueness- Obama winning on Energy Issue..............................................................................11
Obama Elections Uniqueness- Obama ahead with Independents...............................................................................12
Obama Elections Uniqueness- A2 Uniqueness O/W Link.........................................................................................13
Obama Elections Uniqueness- A2 Uniqueness O/W Link.........................................................................................14
Obama Elections Uniqueness- Link Uniqueness- No Energy legislation Coming....................................................15
Obama Elections Uniqueness- Link Uniqueness- No Energy legislation Coming....................................................16
Obama Elections Links- Popular Bush Initiative key to McCain Victory.................................................................17
Obama Elections Links- McCain tied to Bush Initiatives..........................................................................................18
Obama Elections Links- McCain tied to Bush Initiatives..........................................................................................19
Obama Elections Links- Renewable/Alternative Energy Popular with Public..........................................................20
Obama Elections Links- Renewable/Alternative Energy Popular with Public..........................................................21
Obama Elections Links- Renewable/Alternative Energy Popular with Public..........................................................22
Obama Elections Links- Renewable/Alternative Energy Popular with Public..........................................................23
Obama Elections Links- RPS Legislation Popular with Public..................................................................................24
Obama Elections Links- Solar Energy Popular with Public.......................................................................................25
Obama Elections Links- Solar Energy Popular with Public.......................................................................................26
Obama Elections Links- Wind Energy Popular with Public......................................................................................27
Obama Elections Links- Nuclear Energy Popular with Public..................................................................................28
Obama Elections Links- Nuclear Energy Popular with Public..................................................................................29
Obama Elections Links- Addressing Global Warming popular with Public..............................................................30
Americans in large bipartisan numbers say the heating of the earth’s atmosphere is having serious effects on the
environment now or will soon and think that it is necessary to take immediate steps to reduce its effects, the latest
New York Times/CBS News poll finds. Ninety percent of Democrats, 80 percent of independents and 60 percent
of Republicans said immediate action was required to curb the warming of the atmosphere and deal with its effects
on the global climate. Nineteen percent said it was not necessary to act now, and 1 percent said no steps were
needed. Several recent international reports have concluded with near certainty that human activities are the main
cause of global warming since 1950. The poll found that 84 percent of Americans see human activity as at least
contributing to warming. The poll also found that Americans want the United States to support conservation and to
be a global leader in addressing environmental problems and developing alternative energy sources to reduce
reliance on fossil fuels like oil and coal. ....................................................................................................................30
Obama Elections Links- Net Metering popular with Public......................................................................................31
Obama Elections Links- Climate/Environment key 2008 Election Issue..................................................................32
Obama Elections Links- Energy key 2008 Election Issue..........................................................................................33
Obama Elections Links- Gas Prices key 2008 Election Issue....................................................................................34
Obama Elections Impacts- Obama victory key to US Soft Power.............................................................................35
Obama Elections Impacts- Obama victory key to US Soft Power.............................................................................36
Obama Elections Impacts- Soft Power key to US Hegemony...................................................................................37
Obama Elections Impacts- Soft Power key to US Hegemony...................................................................................38
Obama Elections Impacts- US Hegemony Good Impacts..........................................................................................39

CHKP 7Wk. JRs. UM 08 MNDI Elections- Shared.
Obama Elections Impacts- Iran Strike Bad 2NC Impact Scenario.............................................................................40
Obama Elections Impacts- Obama key to resolving Iran issue Peacefully................................................................41
Obama Elections Impacts- McCain would attack Iran...............................................................................................42
Obama Elections Impacts- Iran Strike Bad Impacts...................................................................................................43
Obama Elections DA- Uniqueness- Obama will Lose...............................................................................................45
Obama Elections DA- Uniqueness- Obama will Lose...............................................................................................47
Obama Elections DA- Uniqueness- Obama tied with McCain..................................................................................49
Obama Elections DA- Links- Popular Bush Initiative doesn’t cause McCain Victory.............................................50
Obama Elections DA- Links- Aff. Plan wouldn’t be a Win for Bush/McCain..........................................................51
Obama Elections DA- Links- Aff. Plan wouldn’t be a Win for Bush/McCain..........................................................52
Obama Elections DA- Links- Energy/Environment not key Election Issues.............................................................53
Obama Elections DA- Links- Environment/Climate not key Election Issues............................................................54
Obama Elections DA- Links- Environment/Climate not key Election Issues............................................................56
Obama Elections DA- Links- RPS Unpopular...........................................................................................................57
Obama Elections DA- Links- Carbon Tax Unpopular...............................................................................................59
Obama Elections DA- Links- Ethanol Unpopular......................................................................................................60
Obama Elections DA- Impacts- Obama win won’t increase US Soft Power.............................................................61
Obama Elections DA- Impacts- McCain win would increase US Soft Power...........................................................62
Obama Elections DA- Impacts- VISA Procedures A/C to US Soft Power................................................................63
Obama Elections DA- Impacts- Death Penalty A/C to US Soft Power.....................................................................64
Obama Elections DA- Impacts- US Hegemony Bad Impacts....................................................................................65
Obama Elections DA- Impacts- US won’t strike Iran................................................................................................66
Obama Elections DA- Impacts- Obama Victory causes US strike against Iran.........................................................68
Obama Elections DA- Impacts- Obama Victory causes Israeil strike against Iran....................................................69


CHKP 7Wk. JRs. UM 08 MNDI Elections- Shared.
Obama Elections DA INC
A. Uniqueness

Obama will win an extremely close election, as he currently is projected to win 284 electoral votes
Birmingham Weekly, June 26, 2008, p.
• Currently, Obama enjoys “strong” leads in six states, accounting for a total 45 electoral votes, is the
“probable” winner in eight states with 133 total electoral votes, and has five states with 57 total votes
“leaning” his way; of the 11 tossup states, Obama leads in four, with the 49 electoral votes in those states
bringing his current total to 284 and making him, at this point, the next President of the United States.
• McCain’s current total of 254 electoral votes comes from seven “strong” states with 47 total votes, 10
“probable” states with 90 votes, four “leaners” with 38 votes and seven “tossups” with 76 votes. • A final
note: This is likely to be an extremely close election, as evidenced in part by the relatively few states that can
be considered a sure bet for either candidate. At this point, Obama can count on winning only the District of
Columbia, Hawaii, his home state of Illinois, and Vermont, which together account for just 31 of the 270 electoral
votes needed to win. McCain fares slightly better, with leads that appear to be insurmountable in Alabama,
Kentucky, Tennessee and Utah, giving him a starting base of 33 electoral votes. The rest, as we shall see, remain
largely up for grabs.

B. Links

1. American public universally supports development of alternative energy sources
New York Times, “Public Says Warming Is a Problem, but Remains Split on Response”, Lexis-Nexis, April 27,
Americans in large bipartisan numbers say the heating of the earth's atmosphere is having serious effects on the
environment now or will soon and think that it is
Americans broadly support using renewable energy sources like solar and wind power and say fueling vehicles
with ethanol, which is now made largely from corn, is a good idea, the survey found. They also are nearly evenly
split on building nuclear power plants to reduce reliance on imported energy sources. When asked whether they
would accept a nuclear plan in their community, they said no, 59 percent to 36 percent. The nationwide telephone
poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday with 1,052 adults. The margin-of-sampling error is plus or minus three
percentage points. Nearly four of five of those polled said they believed that the condition of the air, water, land
and wildlife around the world was fair or poor. One percent rated global environmental quality as excellent, and 19
percent called it good. But 56 percent said the environmental condition in their communities was excellent or good.
Despite general optimism about their children's future found in other surveys, respondents in this poll said by 57
percent to 11 percent that the condition of the environment would be worse for the next generation. Fifty-two
percent said that generally speaking they would support protecting the environment over stimulating the economy.
Thirty-six percent chose the economy. But respondents also said, 62 percent to 21 percent, that developing new
energy sources was more important than protecting the environment. Yet they also expressed the belief that the
government should encourage conservation over increasing development of additional energy sources. By a substantial margin, Americans continue to oppose drilling for
oil and natural gas in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, as they have for the last six years. Although respondents split almost evenly on whether Washington
can effectively address global warming, they almost unanimously (92 percent to 6 percent) supported requiring automobile manufacturers to make more fuel-efficient cars.
There is more opposition to using fossil fuels among Democrats than Republicans. Fifty-four percent of Democrats consider using coal to generate electricity to be a bad
idea, compared with 39 percent of Republicans. Sixty-one percent of Republicans favor using natural gas to generate power, while Democrats divided, with 42 percent
saying it is a good idea and 45 percent opposing it. Americans almost universally support developing alternative energy sources like wind or solar power and biofuels, with
87 percent expressing approval. But fewer than 10 percent of those polled said they used any alternative energy source at home.


" Hutchison said of McCain's proposals. Food Costs. The Democratic Congress is -. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Bush might also borrow from Clinton's post-1994 playbook of proposing a lot of small." said Sen. Clinton might be the model. or at least his own base. A goal: Just change the climate For example. But the president needn't get such ideas passed. Obama Elections DA INC CONTINUED 2. "That is something Americans can grasp as a goal. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas).might be a good idea with the added benefit of possibly annoying teacher's unions.astonishingly -. he need only get them discussed in order to recalibrate the political climate more in his favor. He also holds the veto pen. And John McCain is putting that forward. "All of these things are a package that Americans will be able to see would give us energy independence by the year 2025. Gas Prices. but the Democratic takeover inspired him to find it. but he still has the biggest megaphone in the country. September 4.even more unpopular than President Bush.thehill. Ideally. For anyone still thinking that foreign policy will dominate this year's election cycle." 4 . It wouldn't be easy. USA TODAY. "I think the biggest issues that this election will be decided on this year is energy. never mind sell. particularly given Bush's liabilities and the media climate generally. Lexis At home. If Bush can pick some well-chosen fights with Congress. p. such proposals would unite a majority of Americans but divide moderate Democrats from the party's left-wing base (spare me the rending of clothes and gnashing of teeth over the cruelty of "wedge issues"). ideally over spending. House speaker Newt Gingrich alike -.a proposal backed by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former U. JRs. 2007.CHKP 7Wk. paying inner- city students to get good grades -. A popular policy initiative like the Affirmative plan would allow Bush to secure enough voters for McCain to win the election Jonah Goldberg. Her statements come on the same afternoon that John McCain plans to give a speech calling for domestic oil drilling to help decrease the United States' dependence on foreign oil. "Hutchison: Biggest Election Issues are Energy.S. Hutchison went on to tout McCain's plan to increase the domestic energy supply and criticize Democrats for failing to match it with one of their own. the cost of food in the food stores. Such ideas are hard to come up with. he might at least bring back disheartened members of his own political base. Surely the authors of compassionate conservatism could conjure similar treacle. Bush seemed to have lost it in the Oval Office couch cushions for much of his presidency. the cost of gasoline at the pump. a Senate Republican press conference Tuesday will serve as a wake-up call. 3. Bush could have some fat opportunities to rally the majority of Americans. But again. Bush's options are far more>. to the GOP side.Shared. Clinton had his school uniforms and V-chips. Given the Democrats' need to placate their own base in order to prove all that effort in '06 was worth it. Editor at large of National Review Online and syndicated columnist and a member of USA TODAY's board of contributors.not foreign policy The Hill’s Blog Briefing Room June 17. Energy and gas prices key to the 2008 presidential election. 28 June 2008 <http://briefingroom. very popular (and mostly insipid) programs and initiatives." The Hill's Blog Briefing Room 17 June 2008.

InfoTrac While generally less threatening to U. they will devour his political capital. Less than 10 percent of the 170 states in today's world are ethnically homogenous. Yet the United States can continue to enable and mobilize international coalitions to pursue shared security interests. as the world's leading economy. he will need to indicate a new tone in foreign policy which shows that we will once again export hope rather than fear.S. Communal conflicts. regional. prepositioning of U. Jr. In a world of identity crises on many levels of analysis. some impose risks of "horizontal" escalation. there have been some 30 communal conflicts since the end of the Cold War. communal conflicts are the most likely kind of post-cold war conflict and have thus far proved the most frequent. Iran and North Korea where hard power plays a large role. p. in particular. Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University and Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations.. Nye. and two alphabets. but the election alone will not be sufficient. it is not clear which selves deserve sovereignty: nationalities. At the same time. he will have to be careful not to let this inherited legacy of problems define his presidency. JRs. Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University and Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations. This can happen through the involvement of affiliated ethnic groups that spread across borders. Obama Elections DA INC CONTINUED C. The U. p. and so forth. rather. 2008. Role Leadership by the United States.Shared. is a continent of a thousand ethnic and linguistic groups squeezed into some 50-odd states. three religions. If he drops the ball on any of these issues. interests than global or regional balance of power conflicts. and harsher attacks on civilian populations as well as military personnel. Winter. many of them with borders determined by colonial powers in the last century with little regard to traditional ethnic boundaries. and global institutions. The paradox of the post-cold war role of the United States is that it is the most powerful state in terms of both "hard" power resources (its economy and military forces) and "soft" ones (the appeal of its political system and culture). or the use of neighboring territories to ship weapons to combatants. alliances. Obama victory will restore America’s soft power as a nation Joseph S. US soft power prevents 30 regional conflicts from going nuclear Joseph S. leadership effective and joint action possible: forward stationing and preventive deployments of U.S. and in each case its role must be proportionate to its interests at stake and the costs of pursuing them. its most powerful military force." creation of a special bipartisan group to formulate a new policy on climate change. many of them still ongoing. Electing Obama will greatly help restore America's soft power as a nation that can recreate itself. This requires sustained attention to the infrastructure and institutional mechanisms that make U. and allied equipment. Impacts 1. 2.html Unfortunately.S. As a result of such disjunctions between borders and peoples. uses of force for deterrence. There is also the danger that communal conflicts could become more numerous if the UN and regional security organizations lose the credibility. and steady improvement in the conflict resolution abilities of an interlocking set of bilateral alliances. Some time between November 4 and January 20. The former Yugoslavia was a country with five nationalities. and reassurance are much harder to carry out when both those using force and those on the receiving end are disparate coalitions of international organizations. yet it is not so powerful that it can achieve all its international goals by acting alone. Pakistan. Washington Quarterly. particularly those involving wars of soft-pow_b_106717. are very difficult to manage through the UN and other institutions built to address interstate conflicts. particularly when so many states face potential communal conflicts of their own. The use of ethnic propaganda also raises the risk of "vertical" escalation to more intense violence. Preventing and Addressing Conflicts: The Pivotal U. Africa. The United States lacks both the international and domestic prerequisites to resolve every conflict. Similarly. Afghanistan. or the spread to other states within their respective regions. ethnic groups.huffingtonpost. It is not too soon to start thinking about symbols and policies for the days immediately after the election. role will thus not be that of a lone global policeman. Jr. Only half have one ethnic group that accounts for as much as 75 percent of their population.S. and subnational groups. 1996. whether or not the United States itself supplies large military forces. more sophisticated and destructive weapons. willingness. the sudden flood of refugees into neighboring states. regional organizations. http://www. linguistic groups.CHKP 7Wk. advance planning and joint training to ensure interoperability with allied forces. or religious groups. and individual states cannot provide a universal answer to the dilemma of self-determination versus the inviolability of established borders. regional security organizations and alliances. four languages. dropping the term "global war on terror. and capabilities necessary to deal with such conflicts. The UN.S. 5 . Nye. a President Obama will inherit a number of policy problems such as Iraq. a "listening trip" to Asia. and communal conflicts. and allied forces. although few communal conflicts by themselves threaten security beyond their regions. June 12.S. compellence. UM 08 MNDI Elections. the United States can frequently serve as the sheriff of the posse. leading shifting coalitions of friends and allies to address shared security concerns within the legitimizing framework of international organizations. This could take several forms: announcement of an intent to close Guantanamo. is a key factor in limiting the frequency and destructiveness of great power.. and a leading democracy. states. Moreover.

June 25.” 25 June 2008 <http://voanews.CHKP 7Wk. John Kerry (Mass. Another poll earlier this week by Newsweek magazine put Obama's lead at 15 points. They echo several recent national polls -. especially the rising cost of fuel. the GOP candidate. McCain sharply disagrees with Obama's plan to begin pulling U. Sen. troops out of Iraq shortly after taking office.S. the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.Obama will Win Obama holds a narrow lead over McCain because he is ahead in numerous swing sates. John McCain (R-Ariz." Given the Democrat's advantage on the economy. "I believe that we will withdraw over time. Other recent surveys show McCain trailing by anywhere from three to six and the Wall Street Journal. The four surveys are the kickoff of a four-month effort to measure voter sentiment in key battleground states. other national surveys -. "I think all of that bodes well for Democrats in the campaign.html?hpid=topnews Democrat Barack Obama holds narrow leads over GOP rival John McCain in Colorado and Michigan. the race to be much closer.cfm> One survey by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News found Obama leading McCain by a margin of 49 to 37 percent. “New Polls Show Obama's Lead Surging Over McCain.S. voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin.showing Obama with a double-digit lead over McCain. a political scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington. the economic insecurity associated with globalization. the stagnant wages of most ordinary American households. 6 . Obama has a sizeable popular vote lead over McCain Los Angeles Times.washingtonpost. the economic recession.0.Shared. an indication that these states may not be in the swing category this election. troops before Iraq is stabilized. economy. but national polls show the race is very close Washington Post. http://www.including the Gallup daily tracking poll -. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president. Political experts say Obama's lead is likely due to increasing voter concerns about the weakening U." McCain said. In two other states that were closely contested in the 2004 presidential election -- Wisconsin and Minnesota -. And I believe we will come home with victory and honor. "High gas prices and job losses.including surveys conducted for Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg -.S. UM 08 MNDI Elections.5763707.S.) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. However. But the polls also indicate they are divided over whether to withdraw U.) won each by slim margins in 2004. http://www. and not with defeat. p.story WASHINGTON -. In a two-man race between the major party candidates. On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr. Obama Elections Uniqueness. The Democratic Party's presidential nominee carried both Wisconsin and Minnesota in each of the last four elections. political strategists predict Senator McCain will focus on his experience in foreign policy and national security. "I believe that it will be set by facts on the ground. registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend. not by an artificial timetable. 48% to 33%.Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy. Obama’s in the lead – weak economy and Iraq war Jim JRs. Obama says he favors a measured approach to pulling U. two of the most competitive states in two of the most competitive regions of the country heading into the general- election campaign. 2008. but more generally. although Sen. troops out of p. according to surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost. June 26.Obama holds double-digit edges among likely voters." Public opinion polls have long showed most Americans do not believe the Iraq war was worth the cost." said Thomas 2008jun25.

Shared. even though John McCain says he will. the senator has flip-flopped on public campaign financing and now says he will not accept it. "If we want to go play in a state like Georgia" in the fullest way. many of whom will arrive by the Fourth of July. and dollars are the primary reason why. to oversee it. "we'll be able to do that. voting histories. Harold M. All of this. Abbi Easter. But. In an interview. 2008. the wisdom went. Officials said they expected that Clinton's fund-raisers could bring in a total of $75 million in the coming weeks. "These resources allow you to not make decisions based on financial limitations. which no Democratic presidential candidate has won since 1964. Four years ago. that is an astounding amount of cash and it puts Obama light years ahead of McCain's paltry $85 million. p. The Democratic National Committee has since greatly improved its voter information file. a private concern co-founded by a longtime Democratic operative. the biggest battlegrounds will have scores.iht. http://www.” June 26. the smart money is betting the next president of the United States will be named Obama. Add in the fact that the media generally love Barack Obama. 7 . But Obama is putting his own stamp on the plan by moving much of the party's operations from Washington to his headquarters in Chicago and installing Paul Tewes. is going to take more than the $43. which sent supporters door to door to spread the word about the president in their own neighborhoods — a personal touch informed by detailed lists of neighbors' occupations. it would prevent fat cats in the private sector from donating big dollars to influence a potential POTUS. Money might not be able to buy true love. Ickes." David Axelrod. Yet Obama's team has looked into advertising in as many as 25 states and has made clear its openness to running commercials on the broadcast television networks. many of whom have given small amounts and could be readily tapped again.billoreilly. the Obama campaign will have a director and staff members in all 50 states. like the military. Obama Elections Uniqueness. Ickes said Obama's campaign aides were particularly interested in new information his company had gathered about cable television viewing habits. generously giving him positive news coverage. the campaign's chief strategist. But his aides were also considering buying another huge list with information on tens of millions of Americans.php] But. Obama had his real advantage in his own group of 1.5 million donors.1 million that Obama had in the bank as of last month. Of course. "and this is such a novelty I feel like a kid at their first Christmas. As you may have heard. said of the specialty cable commercials. JRs. Fox News Host. even though he once thought it was a swell The campaign is in many ways building on a strategy championed by Howard Dean. While some states will have only a few workers assigned to them. Democrats and their liberal allies scrambled to match the vast lists of personal voter information gathered by the Republicans through public records and consumer data banks. That's because." By the end of the month. and his campaign believes he can raise another $300 million before the vote next November. Referring to a state that has long leaned Republican. The list is owned by Catalist. and you can see some dark clouds on the horizon for McCain. it's voluntary — and Obama is no longer interested in signing up. But Plouffe said the volunteer program was modeled after the one that Bush's aides devised in 2004." She said she was also expecting help from as many as 100 of the 3. the party chairman who has been pressing Democrats to establish a presence in all states rather than focus primarily on battlegrounds. Party leaders in Republican- leaning states like Georgia and Montana are already reporting an influx of paid Obama staffers and volunteers who were sent there to begin registering potential Obama voters." a group of full-time volunteers fanning out across the country to oversee local registration efforts.he will have a huge money and advertising advantage Bill O'Reilly. The government set taxpayer-based funding for presidential candidates at $85 million because. http://www. pet causes and hobbies. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Obama raised about $300 million. perfected by Bush in 2004. "I've been doing Democratic politics in the state for 25 years." Easter said. Obama's team is also sending resources to Virginia.Obama will Win Smart money on Obama to win. of course. treasurer of the state's Democratic Party. one of his top organizers.600 "Obama Organizing Fellows. aides to Obama expect to have something McCain likely will not: enough resources to eliminate the hard choices that campaigns have traditionally faced when balancing the competing needs of their various state efforts. like the young audience for MTV and the African-American viewership for BET. . "It's a great opportunity to get people information that may be particularly germane to them. said Obama had dispatched five paid staff members to the state to begin organizing a voter registration drive. Obama campaign officials said that was because they were considering a tailored commercial campaign on niche cable channels that could give Obama special access to groups that his campaign deemed crucial for victory. Obama plans national push on ads and turnout. “Obama's Advantage: Money. which is now at Obama's disposal. he added. but it can certainly buy TV and radio airtime. The mobilization is being helped along by Obama's robust Internet operation specializing in reaching out to the younger voters who use social networking sites like Facebook. an army of mercenary consultants and legions of staff members in every state. Even with the fund-raising dip in May.CHKP 7Wk." Plouffe said in an interview. in his defeat of Hillary Right now. members of both parties said. Only Obama has the resources to sustain and win an election strategy IHT 6/22 [International Herald Tribune.

Obama will Win All political trends point to an Obama victory Bloomberg 6/24 [News station. However. Independent candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader get 7 percent combined. Obama Leads McCain by 15 Points as Voters Reject Republicans." Davis recalled Obama's struggle against primary rival Hillary Clinton to win blue-collar voters in Rust Belt states. the Los Angeles Times polling director. a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows. Bush. views of President George W. States like Pennsylvania. beats McCain 48 percent to 33 percent in a four-way race. Illinois Senator Obama. UM 08 MNDI Elections. http://www. countered that "winning the Kerry states can be problematic for them. Polls showing Obama doing better there now merely reflect that Obama's enjoying a short-term bump after winning the Democratic primary campaign. he said. McCain is still struggling to win over some of his core groups. and that is the economy. ``The Obama voters are much more energized and motivated to come out to vote than the McCain voters. Obama. Obama's margin and most of the poll's findings in other areas give the Democrats a commanding advantage more than four months before the November election. ``The good news for Obama is also that he seems to be doing better on the issue that is uppermost in voters' minds. Michigan and New Hampshire.'' she says. the economy and the direction of the country -. Davis conceded: "The downside for us as a party is we have fewer Republicans today than we did four years ago. that's a toss-up right now.CHKP 7Wk. McCain draft JRs. Obama Elections Uniqueness. McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis. winning support from once skeptical women and] June 25 (Bloomberg) -. Plouffe said the closest this year may be Pennsylvania. Of the states Kerry won in 2004.dll/article?AID=/20080626/NEWS05/806260362] "John McCain is not able to play a lot of offense in our view in the Kerry states.voter bump after winning Democratic primary campaign Honolulu Advertiser 6/26 [Hawaiian Newspaper. with the remainder undecided. http://news.'' Obama will win." said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe in an hourlong briefing at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington. the Republicans. in a telephone interview.point to even greater trouble for rival John McCain.Shared. says Susan Pinkus.honoluluadvertiser. and most of the political trends -.Democrat Barack Obama has opened a 15-point lead in the presidential race." 8 .

"Most of Barack Obama's money is coming from small contributions. The poll found 53 percent of the Democrats who favored Clinton for the nomination two months ago now back Obama for president. Following a private fundraiser with Clinton's top donors in Washington on Thursday. Politico's chief political correspondent. The Unity gathering was the latest and most visible event in a series of gestures the two senators have made in the past two days in hopes of settling the hard feelings of the long primary More than one in five who had backed the New York senator now plan to support Republican John McCain in the fall." said Tom Daschle. Time is our friend here. Clinton Move to Unify Democrats." Allen said. a boost for McCain if those opinions hold.Shared. But every dollar matters and being able to get those Clinton fundraisers is very important for his campaign moving forward. conducted by Knowledge Networks.history has shown how important that can be: When Senator Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter for the nomination in 1980. they campaign side-by-side for the first time. the National Association of Latino Elected Officials. "She has an extraordinary following all across the country -." Obama's May fundraising report reveals a slowdown: $23 million in contributions. which endorsed her during the primaries. The campaign says over 3. But the biggest plus Clinton offers is cash. setting in motion an epic coast-to-coast war of attrition between the two candidates that ended June 3. Hillary Clinton is ready to actively rally her troops to his side. "The campaign could not afford for all these supporters to take the summer off and lick their wounds. The poll was taken in the days after Clinton suspended her campaign and said she was supporting her to-unify-democrats/20080626165709990001] MANCHESTER. Clinton suspended her campaign four days later. The poll suggests time is beginning to heal some rifts from the primary campaign and that the New York senator's endorsement of Obama carried weight. the two were to fly together Friday aboard Obama's campaign plane to a rally in Unity. national co-chair of the Obama campaign." said 55-year-old Susan Gates of Massachusetts. (June 27) — When Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton step onstage in their first joint campaign appearance in New Hampshire. when Obama clinched the nomination. needs those checks. "She was a terrific campaigner. 9 . more than $7 million less than a month earlier. 2008<> WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama has won over more than half of Hillary Rodham Clinton's former supporters. N. http://news. “Poll: Most Clinton supporters back Obama. "They never made up in a convincing way and it was one of the reasons why President Carter lost. Sen. the battle became bitter -. Democrats are practically salivating over the potential positives Clinton brings with her.000 Americans to see how their political views evolve over the course of the campaign. yet far from complete. "Democrats are consolidating behind the nominee as the choice in the election is more clear and as the contest fades.700 — a carefully chosen venue in a key general election battleground state. But analysts predict Clinton's supporters could produce a surge of up to $75 million. it will be the first public display of a rapprochement between former rivals hoping to set aside differences and unify the party while helping each other.CHKP 7Wk." said public opinion analyst Mark Mellman. population 1.. N. That's an improvement from April. Clinton has a tremendous role if she wants to take it. Obama. "We still have work to do. giving money right away. Rival Sen. and NALEO." The Obama campaign also has encouraged supporters to host "United for Change" house meetings with supporters of Clinton and other candidates on Saturday.000 are being planned across all 50 states. Obama's progress with Clinton supporters is marked. I think. On Friday. The AP-Yahoo News UM 08 MNDI Elections. Clinton narrowly won the state's contest. and so she can be an extraordinarily effective surrogate for me and the values and ideals we share as Democrats.H." said Mike Allen. Unity awarded exactly 107 votes to each candidate in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary in January. On Thursday.H.” June 26." Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters in a strategy briefing." Obama's outreach to Clinton supporters picks up this week.” June 22. "They want them to be in there raising money." Daschle said." Clinton's help in soothing the bad blood between the campaigns is critical -.and the fallout was fatal. "I think Sen. Obama and Clinton moving to rectify Democratic unity AP 6/27 [Obama. and the two will campaign together for the first time Friday in New Hampshire. “Clinton Brings What Obama Needs: Money. Clinton planned to introduce Obama to her financial backers Thursday night in Washington. in the campaign." Obama’s winning Clinton’s supporters NEDRA PICKLER. 2008 < http://ap. and following some time off." Obama told reporters Wednesday. "It wasn't a difficult decision — I was a lifelong Democrat. among minority groups. is part of an ongoing study that tracks the attitudes and opinions of a scientifically selected group of more than 2. "Money is important in a presidential campaign. CBS News correspondent Thalia Assuras reports. John McCain was close behind.shtml?source=mostpop_story> (CBS) Two weeks after pledging her full-hearted support to democratic nominee Barack Obama in her concession speech.A2 Hillary Supporters Hillary will make Obama win – Supporters and critical fundraising CBS. who just a few days ago broke his pledge to rely on public financing. Clinton also praised Obama before two major interest groups Thursday — the American Nurses Association. she will introduce Obama to her key fundraisers. JRs.cbsnews. She.Obama will Win. inspired millions of people. "I want her campaigning as much as she can. among working people. "Her involvement in the campaign is welcome news and we're very excited about it. a former Clinton backer now firmly in Obama's camp.among women. according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll that finds party loyalty trumping hard feelings less than three weeks after their bruising Democratic presidential contest ended. Obama Elections when only 40 percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama over McCain. Aside from the symbolism of its name.

JRs. UM 08 MNDI Elections. 10 .Shared.CHKP 7Wk.

Obama Elections Uniqueness. Bush's policies on energy and the environment almost from the day he took office. NJ -. Surveys show that the public is critical of Bush’s energy policies New York Times. 2007“Public Says Warming Is a Problem.CHKP see Barack Obama as better able than John McCain to handle energy issues and the economy. while Obama has an edge on healthcare and taxes. 2008. By large margins. McCain's only advantage is on terrorism. Most respondents said they did not expect that any withdrawal of American troops from Iraq would cause prices to fall. p. 65. Republican of More than 80 percent foresee higher prices in coming months.aspx PRINCETON. 11 . which warming. Obama leading McCain on energy issue in status quo Gallup. Nearly half of those polled also said they did not believe that their fellow Americans most scientists say contribute to the would be willing to change driving habits to save gasoline or reduce the production of heat-trapping gases. which is one of top two voter concerns Gallup. but Remains Split on Response”. Minn. When it comes to specific steps to foster conservation or produce more energy. April 27. http://www. has been critical of the administration's responses and has advocated building nuclear plants to provide electricity. said Democrats were more likely than Republicans to protect the environment and foster energy it will be among the chief topics in the 2008 campaign. One-third approved Mr. who said he was a Republican. and a majority of those polled. 48% to 32%.Shared. The negative view of new gasoline taxes may reflect the wide expectation that pump prices will continue to increase regardless of government action. with 47% choosing Obama and 28% McCain. On the economy. and illegal immigration. forget about the cleanup. The issue arises frequently in public forums. Respondents expressed little confidence in President Bush's handling of environmental or energy issues. the poll found.aspx Obama has a clear advantage over McCain on both of these top two issues. Six other issues were tested in the poll. Lexis Senator John McCain. ''I think the Republicans have slashed the funds for cleanup of the environment. with many citing the Iraq war as a primary cause. Those policies have also cost him some Republican support. according to a recent Gallup survey. the poll showed. respondents opposed an increase in pump prices of $2 a gallon. June 24. a respondent from Maple Grove. to deal with environmental and energy-supply concerns.Obama winning on Energy Issue Obama currently leads McCain on energy issue.'' said Ron Gellerman. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Americans give Obama a 19- point edge over McCain as best able to deal with energy. June 24. the two most important election issues in the public's eyes. the public is deeply torn. with the two candidates positioned roughly evenly on Iraq. including many Republicans. or even $1. Bush's handling of the environment and 27 percent approved his approach to energy questions. 2008. and if it comes down to whether or not it will cost big business. Obama has a 16-point margin over McCain. and it is likely that along with the Iraq war and health care. Respondents said they would support higher gasoline prices to reduce dependence on foreign oil but would oppose higher prices to combat global warming. p.. moral values. JRs. http://www. Three-quarters said they would be willing to pay more for electricity generated by renewable sources like solar or wind energy. Democrats have criticized Mr.

These five states were critical to the GOP's success in 2000 and 2004.0. "There are pretty big numbers lying around to turn out. "He's running ahead among women. Obama's map keys on boost in black vote.Obama ahead with Independents Obama running ahead of McCain among independents Los Angeles Times. http://www. Hundreds of thousands more blacks are eligible to vote but are not registered.story "Meanwhile. 2008. UM 08 MNDI Elections. In Florida alone. Obama Elections Uniqueness. 12 ." she said. but President Bush's victory margins were slim enough to suggest a major expansion of black turnout could help lead to Democratic gains this year. And campaign analysts have identified similar potential in North Carolina. June 25. black voters and other minorities. Obama is doing well among a broad range of voters. JRs.html?syndication=rss] WASHINGTON — As they ponder a political map that has spelled defeat for Democrats in the past two presidential elections.nwsource. Virginia. said he has identified "big pockets of potential voters" in key 2008jun25. John Bellows." Obama is capitalizing on independent voters and is winning over swing states LA Times 6/24 [Los Angeles Times. more than half a million black registered voters stayed home in 2004.latimes. p. Missouri and Ohio." he said. Obama strategists believe they have identified a gold mine of new and potentially decisive Democratic voters in at least five battleground states. He's running roughly even among white voters and independents. Sen. http://seattletimes. a database expert in the Obama campaign.CHKP 7Wk.Shared. Barack Obama's campaign strategists are quietly laying plans to draw blacks to the polls in unprecedented numbers by capitalizing on the excitement over the prospect of electing the nation's first black president.

” said Morin. They echo several recent national polls -.including the Gallup daily tracking poll -. other national surveys an indication that these states may not be in the swing category this election. 13 .A2 Uniqueness O/W Link Obama is winning now but polls could still change – empirically proven with Bush and Dukakis Times of India. Double-digit leads in polls over-represent Democrats – Obama only has a small single digit lead Andrew Satter. single digit lead for Obama.” Morin said. Polls: Obama Leads In Four Key States. Obama Elections Uniqueness. and has begun expressing apprehension that Republicans will resort to scare-mongering to win the elections. I know something is going on.” 22 Jun 2008 <http://timesofindia. The Democratic Party's presidential nominee carried both Wisconsin and Minnesota in each of the last four elections. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters. The four surveys are the kickoff of a four-month effort to measure voter sentiment in key battleground states. "We know what kind of campaign they're going to run. They're going to try to make you afraid. according to surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost. the GOP candidate. Times/Bloomberg polls over-representing Democrats. if the two polls that show Obama winning by a large margin were to modify their findings using the same percentage of Democrats and Republicans as other polls. We know that the best predictor of how someone is going to vote is their party ID. “Barack bounces ahead with 15% lead. 53 percent to 34 percent. “The Wild Differences in Polls. "It is going to be very difficult for Republicans to run on their stewardship of the economy or their outstanding foreign policy.cqpolitics. says Richard Morin. UM 08 MNDI Elections. 2008 <http://www. voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51% to 27% Younger voters are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27percent.cms> Overall.” June and the Wall Street Journal. Times/Bloomberg and the Newsweek findings.” In fact. In two other states that were closely contested in the 2004 presidential election the race to be much closer.” While there are indeed more people who identify themselves as Democrats than Republicans in the country. although Sen. including Gallup.A. Morin says. Registered independents have also moved toward Obama. backing him by a 48 percent to 36 percent margin after splitting about evenly in last month's poll. two of the most competitive states in two of the most competitive regions of the country heading into the general- election campaign. you find that their results change dramatically. Obama has narrow leads in polls WP 6/26 [Washington Post. pollsters and pundit caution that Obama is far from a shoo-in in the election still more than four months http://www. Fears that Hillary supporters will defect to McCain following her loss also appears to have been overblown. Clinton supporters backed the Illinois senator by a significantly smaller margin. “When I look at those results. are more in line with the actual disparity than the Bloomberg or Newsweek polls. Explained.indiatimes. John Kerry (Mass. In the new poll. registered Democrats and Democratic leaners who supported Clinton during the primaries now favor Obama over McCain by 69%to 18%.showing Obama with a double-digit lead over McCain. They point to the 1988 election when Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George Bush sr when the primaries ended in May." Obama told a fundraiser in Jacksonville. Obama’s lead would come down to somewhere between a toss-up and a small.Shared. I look for the percentage of Republicans. June 26.cbsnews. JRs.A. “The first place that I look when I see these discrepancies. Obama himself is taking nothing for granted.shtml] Democrat Barack Obama holds narrow leads over GOP rival John McCain in Colorado and Michigan.Wisconsin and Minnesota -. Florida. However.A.) won each by slim margins in 2004.cfm?docID=news-000002907401&parm1=1&cpage=1> All “if you do the math and apply the proper percentages to the L. “Interestingly enough.CHKP 7Wk. Democrats and Independents in the sample. Times/Bloomberg and the Newsweek polls have (too) large percentage of Democrats and a (too) small percentage of Republicans. In an interview with CQ Politics. he said the discrepancy is probably a result of the Newsweek and L.Obama holds double-digit edges among likely voters. a senior editor at the Pew Research Center. “Both the L. In last month's survey. but ended up being trounced in November. Morin says the other polls. However.including surveys conducted for Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg -.

politico. p. I've posted the whole thing after the jump. voters. Times survey is recalculated to a more normalized range for party identification. two). UM 08 MNDI Elections. http://www. Normally. Hence this: "It is important that both the campaign. Other polls show the race to be close. if you include Newsweek last weekend.CHKP 7Wk.Shared.presidential race is very close Wall Street Journal. That's an unusually low 2008. putting on their psychology hat. June 25. "If the L." Newsweek and LA Times polls are outliers. of course. But.wsj. Liz Harrington and David Kanevsky. which is what we are seeing in most other polls. 14 . but the short argument is that the survey's party id sample was flawed. JRs. the McCain camp has sent out a memo from their pollsters shooting down the LA Times/Bloomberg poll released yesterday (and sitting on Drudge) that shows Obama up 15." write Bill McInturff. 2008. McCain trailing by 15 points in each seal the deal on an Obama presidency. Most other polls have the party ID gap with a significantly smaller Democratic edge. But both polls appear to be outliers. and nonvoters lean Democratic. with Republicans making up only 22% of respondents. and a 17-point advantage in the Times poll.html Recognizing the danger of a perception hardening. as well as reporters covering the campaign. Democrats had a 14-point advantage in Newsweek's sample. http://online. The McCain camp.html? mod=opinion_main_commentaries Some Democrats claim new polls by Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times showing p. not likely. the memo is about much more than just one outlier (or. only two-thirds of those end up casting ballots. is trying to ease anxities and calm fears among party elites and activists that Obama is developing a lead so significant that it can't be overcome. Both surveys polled Uniqueness O/W Link LA Times/Bloomberg poll showing a 15 point Obama lead was methodologically flawed Politico. McCain would be down in the mid-single digits. not over-react to every single survey that is released. Obama Elections Uniqueness. June 27. Second.

which the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee passed in December. who might see it as a threat to automobile or other manufacturing industry jobs. 2008. he said. Lexis With a new energy law on the books and a national election around the corner. Congress appears unlikely to pass major energy and environmental laws in 2008. 2008. the odds are even worse. UM 08 MNDI Elections. 15 . January 10. p. and the Senate and the House may give more attention to climate change legislation. January 10. Analyst with the investment firm Friedman. Obama Elections Uniqueness. even when there are supply interruptions and a single party controls Capitol Hill and the White House.Shared." No major climate change/cap-and-trade legislation will emerge from Congress this year Global Power Report. Book said. even with oil prices flirting at or near $100/barrel. p.CHKP 7Wk. January 10. 2008.Link Uniqueness." Still. Lexis "I'm thinking it's going to be very bare bones. a wide-open presidential race could ignite a partisan brawl as soon as mid-February. pitting Big Oil against clean and green power in a battle for subsidy dollars. if clear front-runners emerge from early state primary elections and Democrats appear determined to continue 'pay-as-you-go' fiscal strictures. "I don't think anything new is going to come unless they're responding to some sort of crisis. although probably will not pass such bills." he said. JRs. Book said.No Energy legislation Coming Congress unlikely to pass major energy and environmental legislation in 2008 Global Power Report. Congress won’t pass new energy laws this year Kevin Book." he said. Ramsey. Global Power Report. was unlikely to come up for a Senate or House floor vote. "This year. Lexis Recent history shows how difficult it is for Congress to pass energy laws. Book said a mandatory cap-and-trade bill for greenhouse gases. Washington analysts say. Such a vote. it could turn off Democrat-leaning union members. "Democrats command a narrow margin in Congress. would put the Democratic nominee for president in a "check-mate" situation ? if he or she supported the bill. which are scheduled to expire at the end of 2008. p. some analysts say Congress likely will at least enact bills extending production tax credits for renewable energy production. Billings.

in perhaps late 2009 or early 2010. January 2. Michael Bloomberg.Shared. p. Climate change unlikely to be high on the presidential election agenda Michael Bloomberg. "We need to have this happen sooner rather than later. with hundreds of city mayors around the US having now taken a strong position on climate change. greenhouse gas emissions. said in Bali: "It won't have much effect and I'm probably overstating it. chief executive of PNM Resources. Lexis But Jeff Sterba. 2008. Obama Elections Uniqueness. p." Mr Bloomberg went on: "Governments go through cycles and I believe that the issue of climate change will be taken on as more people understand [it].No Energy legislation Coming Domestic climate legislation in 2008 unlikely Jeff Sterba. called final domestic legislation this year unlikely. Mayor of New York City.iema. It's not really discussed by the presidential candidates.Link Uniqueness. He said this view is shared by many other CEOs participating in the U. JRs.S. the issue is unlikely to be high on the presidential election agenda. The US administration's position on climate change was in the spotlight last weekend as its delegation was booed in the closing hours of the marathon United Nations meeting in Bali. May 20." 16 . At the moment they're unwilling to face any issue that has cause to alienate any group of voters.CHKP 7Wk. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Greenwire. http://www. and I would have to say that is unfortunate.S." said Sterba. Chairman of the Edison Electric Institute and Chief executive of PNM Resources. that's what I think. Every other place I've been in the last two years is talking about it in a more advanced way. mayor of New York. It won't be [on the agenda] at the next election but it will be on the political agenda as we go forward. Climate Action Partnership. "The problem is more in Congress. a coalition of businesses and environmental groups that is calling for a mandatory cap on U." He predicted that a domestic plan is more likely to be completed about a year into the new administration. "I would say that most of us feel that the likelihood of anything happening this year is pretty remote. Institute of Environmental Management & Assessment. Nevertheless." He pointed out that the issue was having an effect on local politics.

UM 08 MNDI Elections. If Al Gore had won in 2000. Furthermore. Bill Clinton's legacy would certainly be higher (and it will also improve if Hillary Clinton is elected). 2007. As my colleague Ramesh Ponnuru argues.Popular Bush Initiative key to McCain Victory Bush’s job approval rating must be in the mid-40s for McCain to have a chance at winning the election Jonah Goldberg. Since winner-in-08-white-house-race-2007-05-22. JRs. http://thehill. 2007. May 22. But how to get those numbers up so late in his administration? Bush’s job approval rating much reach at least 45 percent to make a McCain victory likely Oxford Analytica. Editor at large of National Review Online and syndicated columnist and a member of USA TODAY's board of contributors.Shared. There are few parallels for such an abysmal rating during a second presidential term. they have moved within a comparatively narrow 29-36 percent band in mainstream surveys. September 4. If he cannot achieve at least a 45 percent approval rating by next year. The problem for Bush and the GOP is that it seems very unlikely a Republican candidate will have any chance of winning in 2008 so long as Bush's approval ratings are in the freezing range. Obama Elections Links. even Bush’s personal pollsters seem to expect that his ratings will remain at this low ebb for the rest of the year and into 2008. Lexis President Reagan's historical standing was put on the glide path to greatness in part because his anointed successor won the presidency.html •Unpopular president. p. when (with the obvious exception of former President Richard Nixon) the occupant of the White House tends to become more personally popular at the same time that he becomes less politically effective.CHKP 7Wk. Bush's approval ratings need to be at least in the mid-40s for the Republican nominee to have a fighting chance. then the president will remain a liability for his party’s electoral prospects. The president’s approval ratings have been unusually poor for almost two years. p. USA TODAY. 17 .

CHKP 7Wk. JRs. UM 08 MNDI Elections- Shared.
Obama Elections Links- McCain tied to Bush Initiatives
McCain can’t break ties with Bush – their messages overlap
LA Times 6-20-08 [Maeve Reston and Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers; “McCain struggles to break
free of Bush”; 6-20-2008;,0,2497288.story]
The candidate wants to distance himself from the president, but their messages keep overlapping. In the months ahead, John
McCain will have to repeatedly beat back claims by Barack Obama's campaign that he is running to win a third term for the
Bush administration. But events this week have illustrated just how difficult that could be. In this crucial opening phase of the
general election campaign -- when McCain is trying to establish his independence from the unpopular president -- his message has
repeatedly been eclipsed by that of the White House. On Thursday morning, McCain dropped in to flood-ravaged southeastern Iowa,
where he toured half-submerged buildings and offered comfort to displaced residents by telling them they had done a "magnificent job."
But the images of the Arizona senator flashed side by side on television with those of President Bush, who was briefed on the damage in
Cedar Rapids, less than 30 miles away. The campaign's message was similarly upstaged by the White House earlier this week after the
airing of an ad that portrayed McCain as an adversary of the president on climate change. On Monday, McCain called for lifting a federal
ban on offshore oil and gas drilling, a reversal of his long-held opposition. The next day the news leaked that Bush planned to second that
call, and he did so -- giving Democratic operatives fodder to fire off e-mails criticizing the "Bush-McCain energy plan." Even Cindy
McCain appeared to be on the same wavelength as the White House this week. During a visit to Vietnam, she echoed Laura Bush's
criticism of Myanmar's military junta, one of the few issues the first lady has addressed publicly.

Bush’s endorsement ties him to McCain
Reuters ‘8 [Editor: Cynthia Osterman; “McCain wins Bush Endorsement for Presidency”; 3-5-2008;
The endorsement will likely help McCain rally disenchanted conservatives behind his candidacy, and with Bush helping him raise
much-needed campaign cash, it will give him a significant boost headed into the campaign for the November election. But the
endorsement also gave Democrats ammunition to use against McCain, since Bush is unpopular among many Americans because of
the Iraq war and the ailing U.S. economy. Experts doubt the two men will appear together often. The Democratic National Committee
said McCain "offers a third term of George W. Bush" and put up on the Web site a video of the entire Bush-McCain
ceremony, saying "we couldn't say it better ourselves." McCain, an Arizona senator who at 71 would be the oldest person ever elected to
a first U.S. presidential term, said he has "great admiration, respect and affection" for Bush and wants him to campaign for him as
much as possible. "I hope that the president will find time from his busy schedule to be out on the campaign trail with me," he said. He
also said he will now begin the process of picking a vice-presidential running mate, a choice analysts said was of critical importance given
McCain's advanced age. 'MCSAME'? A liberal group called the Campaign to Defend America greeted the endorsement with a television
advertisement that equated McCain with Bush, saying he was "McSame as Bush," particularly on the Iraq war. "A trillion dollars in Iraq
over the next 10 years. McSame as Bush," the ad's narrator says as Bush's head is digitally removed from his body in the ad and replaced
with McCain's. Bush laughed off a question as to whether his endorsement could hurt McCain more than it helps him, and he made clear
he would not overshadow McCain, saying, "I've had my time in the Oval Office." "Look, if my showing up and endorsing him helps him,
or if I'm against him and it helps him -- either way, I want him to win," he said. At a time when change is the buzzword in presidential
politics, Bush said it was his experience that the American people expect change, but that the fight against Islamic extremists will require
steadfast resolve. "And the good news about our candidate there will be a new president, a man of character and courage, but he's not
going to change when it comes to taking on the enemy. He understands this is a dangerous world," he said. Republican pollster Whit
Ayres said Bush's endorsement means the Republican Party is now united behind McCain.


CHKP 7Wk. JRs. UM 08 MNDI Elections- Shared.
Obama Elections Links- McCain tied to Bush Initiatives
Bush’s endorsement inextricably ties his politics with McCain
Froomkin ‘8 [Dan, Washington Post Columnist; “Bush’s Mixed Blessing”; 3-5-2008;]
So for McCain, today's embrace with Bush is the classic double-edged sword. On the one hand, there is
something undeniably compelling about the symbolism of one Republican standard-bearer handing the
torch to another, surrounded by the pomp and power of the White House. It will also help McCain with
Bush's core supporters. But on the other hand, Bush is damaged goods, deeply unpopular not just with
Democrats but also independents, and the walking embodiment of what Americans evidently are eager to put
behind them. Michael D. Shear and Peter Slevin write in The Washington Post that today's endorsement is
"intended to cement the senator as the political heir of his former rival." But Mark Silva blogs for Tribune that
"the public embrace of a president whose public approval has hovered at an average of 33 percent for the past year
in the Gallup Poll will readily be taken by his Democratic opponent as a symbol that a vote for McCain is a vote
for a continuation of the Bush White House." David Gregory reports for NBC News: "A source close to Bush says
McCain has to be careful with a Bush embrace. "'Better to do it now rather than later,' this source says, 'Get it out
of the way.'
McCain is Bush’s third term
Eichel '8 [Larry, Senior Staff Writer at the Inquirer; "McCain's Big Balancing Act is a Tough One"; Philadelphia
Inquirer; June 22, 2008; LEXIS]
The other side is repeatedly making the argument that McCain is running for "George Bush's third term." Last
week, Obama said that "it's my impression that John McCain has adopted not only George Bush's policies
but George Bush's playbook." U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D., Mass.) said that "John McCain has fully embraced the
failed, tragic [foreign] policy of the Bush administration over the last 71/2 years." McCain's aides and allies
counter that Obama has done far less than their man in terms of bucking party orthodoxy and seeking consensus in the Senate. The McCain bipartisan resume includes work
on such subjects as campaign-finance and immigration reform. Reclaiming the banner of reform, which he owned during his 2000 presidential run, is critical for him.
Witness his campaign slogan: Reform. Prosperity. Peace. In that regard, being the one candidate to agree to federal spending limits for the general election may help. But to
be seen as a maverick, analysts say, he'll have to act the part more than he has to date. "He's trying to turn the page from where Bush is, and it's a very heavy page," said
James Thurber, a political scientist at American University in Washington. "With everything working against him, it's incredible that he's even competitive. But he is."


CHKP 7Wk. JRs. UM 08 MNDI Elections- Shared.
Obama Elections Links- Renewable/Alternative Energy Popular with Public
Voters across the political spectrum supports government policies on alternative energy
Agriculture Online, March 6, 2006, “Survey shows public support for renewable energy”, p.
A new national public opinion survey demonstrates overwhelming public support for government policies
and investments that will support development of renewable energy sources like solar, wind and ethanol.
"This survey underscores a major shift in public opinion," says Read Smith, co-chair of the 25 x '25 Work
Group, an organization that would like to see the US to get 25% of all energy from renewable resources by the
year 2025. "Americans want to invest in renewable energy right here at home so that we are less dependent
on countries in unfriendly and unstable parts of the world." Survey results were released today at the 25x'25
Agriculture and Forestry Renewable Energy Summit. Among the findings: Ninety-eight percent of voters see a
national goal of having 25% of our domestic energy needs met by renewable resources by the year 2025 as
important for the country, and 74% feel that it is "very important." Ninety percent of voters believe this goal is
achievable. Similar majorities support government action to encourage greater use of renewable energy: 88% favor
financial incentives, and 92% support minimum government standards for the use of renewable energy by the
private sector. Nearly all voters (98%) say the costs, such as the cost of research and development and the cost of
building new renewable energy production facilities, would be worth it to move us toward the 25x'25 goal. Voters
consider energy to be an important issue facing the country, rating it similarly with health care, terrorism and
national security, and education, and ahead of taxes and the war in Iraq. Half (50%) of voters believe America is
headed for an energy crisis in the future, and 35% believe the country already is facing a crisis. Voters see many
convincing arguments for a shift to renewable energy -- the need to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil,
protection of the environment for future generations, the readiness of these technologies to contribute today,
and the opportunities they present to create new jobs, especially in rural communities.
Polls indicate that the public across political leanings support alternative energy policies
David DeFusco, Director of Communications at Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, “Yale poll
reveals overwhelming public desire for new energy policy direction “,,, June 9, 2005
Yale poll reveals overwhelming public desire for new energy policy direction New Haven, Conn. - A new Yale
University research survey of 1,000 adults nationwide reveals that while Americans are deeply divided on many
issues, they overwhelmingly believe that the United States is too dependent on imported oil. The survey
shows a vast majority of the public also wants to see government action to develop new "clean" energy
sources, including solar and wind power as well as hydrogen cars. 92% of Americans say that they are worried
about dependence on foreign oil 93% of Americans want government to develop new energy technologies and
require auto industry to make cars and trucks that get better gas mileage The results underscore Americans' deep
concerns about the country's current energy policies, particularly the nation's dependence on imported oil. Fully 92
percent say this dependence is a serious problem, while 68 percent say it is a "very serious" problem. Across all
regions of the country and every demographic group, there is broad support for a new emphasis on finding
alternative energy sources. Building more solar power facilities is considered a "good idea" by 90 percent of
the public; 87 percent support expanded wind farms; and 86 percent want increased funding for renewable
energy research. According to Gus Speth, dean of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, "This
poll underscores the fact that Americans want not only energy independence but also to find ways to break the
linkage between energy use and environmental harm, from local air pollution to global warming." Results of
the poll indicate that 93 percent of Americans say requiring the auto industry to make cars that get better gas
mileage is a good idea. Just 6 percent say it is a bad idea. This sentiment varies little by political leaning, with
96 percent of Democrats and Independents and 86 percent of Republicans supporting the call for more fuel-
efficient vehicles.


Ninety percent of Democrats. institutional and financial clean energy specialization and experience. it will be among the chief topics in the 2008 campaign. The challenge in the years ahead is to provide subsidies in a way that ensures that these technologies get off the drawing board and are able to wean themselves from support The American public wants the gov’t to implement alternative energy policies and it’s becoming a major issue in the 2008 election New York Times. "This is providing a vital impetus that is moving clean technology across the great divide of cost. setting mandates." "The rapidly advancing new paradigms of climate change. Examples include Brazil in biofuels. and it is likely that along with the Iraq war and health care. supply shortages in silicon.CHKP 7Wk. and policy implementation and cooperation among the United States. Nineteen percent said it was not necessary to act now. Lexis-Nexis. China and others will produce a broad range of opportunities. from traditional incumbents such as electrical power companies and major oil and gas companies to new entrants such as venture capital firms. Senator John McCain. “Public Says Warming Is a Problem. and competitive pressures from escalating component costs. Recent international reports have said with near certainty that human activities are the main cause of global warming since 1950. according to the CERA report Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy. CERA Chairman and IHS Executive Vice President. energy security. the European Union. The poll found that 84 percent of Americans see human activity as at least contributing to warming." said Robert LaCount. and 1 percent said no steps were needed.Wind will make the largest gains. 80 percent of independents and 60 percent of Republicans said immediate action was required to curb the warming of the atmosphere and deal with its effects on the global climate.despite near-term bottlenecks in wind turbine manufacturing. . CERA's Crossing the Divide analysis offers a number of key insights about potentially significant clean energy opportunities for almost every energy sector participant: . John Edwards and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York have offered fairly detailed plans for national and international programs to reduce heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide and encouraging alternative energy sources. the latest New York Times/CBS News poll finds. technical.Government policy remains a key driver for clean energy advancement . "We are seeing a major shift in public opinion.Putting a price on CO2 emissions.Some places are becoming concentrations of political.There is already a "bubbling" of clean energy clusters . Obama Elections Links. reinforced by the expectation that carbon policies could fundamentally change the competitive landscape of the global energy business. “Climate Change Will Spur Seven Trillion Dollars In New Investment By 2030”." he added. head of CERA's Climate Change and Clean Energy Group. has been critical of the administration's responses and has advocated building nuclear plants to provide electricity. scale and maturity that has separated it from markets served by mainstream technologies and processes. February 6. but Remains Split on Response”. Republican of Arizona. Lexis-Nexis. 2007 Americans in large bipartisan numbers say the heating of the earth's atmosphere is having serious effects on the environment now or will soon and think that it is necessary to take immediate steps to reduce its effects. JRs. "All participants in the global energy business. UM 08 MNDI Elections. The issue arises frequently in public forums. risks and pitfalls as the modern energy industry increasingly moves to adopt clean technologies that will be part of the alternative.Renewable/Alternative Energy Popular with Public Major percentage of public opinion now in favor of alternative energy Space Daily. "will play a role in shaping this alternative energy future. 2008 The result of this rising public and private momentum is an increase in worldwide clean energy investment that could surpass $7US trillion by 2030 in cumulative real 2007 dollars. April 27. Spain in wind technologies. proven results. Germany in photovoltaic (PV) technology. 21 . followed by solar power and biomass . .Shared. The poll also found that Americans want the United States to support conservation and to be a global leader in addressing environmental problems and developing alternative energy sources to reduce reliance on fossil fuels like oil and coal.Renewable power technologies are poised for substantial growth ." said Daniel Yergin. and providing subsidies all work to kick-start clean energy technologies by overcoming the economic advantage of conventional technologies. The presidential candidates have recognized the desire for swifter action on energy and the environment than the Bush administration has pursued and have offered plans with varying degrees of specificity. Among the leading Democrats. low-carbon pathway to the energy future.

the public will disapprove of inaction or efforts that expand our reliance on conventional fuels or create more global warming pollution. Conversely. there is new evidence that points us not only to support for solutions but also toward new signs of the expediency with which Americans want their leaders in Congress to take this issue on. We should demand that our leaders show global leadership on this crucial issue. alternative energy. The survey shows that 79 percent of Americans approve of providing tax credits "as an incentive to companies to build solar. with GfK NOP. as evidenced by a new poll.americanprogress. JRs. This public urgency is consistent with the scientific urgency illustrated by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that determined that human activity causes global warming and that climate change will put humans and our planet at real risk if left unchecked.000 adults. 75 percent agreed. Independents. http://www. and Republicans believe the evidence of global warming is now clear and only strengthens the case for immediate action on energy independence. A poll for the Center for American Progress conducted by GreenbergQuinlanRosner Research found that a majority of Americans look to Washington for meaningful and timely action. when Americans ranked the threat of climate change and air pollution as the top energy-related concerns. Senior Fellow.CHKP 7Wk. They see clean energy as a path to economic growth and new jobs. 4-17-2007. and television screens and energy alternative advocacy permeated the Web. Economic growth ranked at the bottom of the four choices." Only 20 percent do not approve. meaningful action to make America become self-sufficient in its energy use and create new jobs in the process. As we approach Earth Day this Sunday. wind and advanced-design nuclear power plants. They want their leaders to show they will do the right thing. believe we should be leading the world in clean. while only 22 percent do not approve. Americans overwhelmingly support vigorous standards for clean alternative energy technologies and better mileage.Renewable/Alternative Energy Popular with Public Americans want energy independence and distancing from fossil fuels – polls prove Podesta et al ‘7 [John. they believe we can do anything. and we must hold them accountable for making it happen. clearly believe that the issue of energy independence and global warming is one of the biggest priorities for our nation’s leaders. economic growth is simply a greater concern at this time. Democrats. including new nuclear power plants. including government assistance for carbon-free energy technologies. "Eight of 10 Americans Support Federal Incentives to Spur Growth of Carbon-Free Energy Technology.html] After a year when public education and media coverage saturated classrooms. and. the survey found. according to a new national survey of 1. A majority of Americans now rank economic growth as a top concern." Seventy-seven percent of those surveyed approve. They also support a cap and reduction on global warming pollution. Among the most important findings: Americans want freedom and self sufficiency from our energy policies. In January. The House is on a fast track to adopt solutions to these pressing problems and plans to consider additional pieces of the solution in July and this fall. Americans massively support federal incentives and loan guarantees for many forms of carbon-free energy tech Newswire 08. the House made a down payment on clean energy alternatives such as wind and solar energy by redirecting federal tax breaks and subsidies for big oil companies to investments in clean energy. hydro and renewable energy. too. The new telephone survey was conducted April 10-13 by Bisconti Research Inc. Senior Fellow and Director of Climate Strategy." PR Newswire 25 Apr. Eighty-four percent of Americans agree that the nation should take advantage of all low-carbon energy sources. put money to good use and act accordingly themselves. Americans. In the survey conducted last October. “Americans Urgently Want Action on Energy Independence and Global Warming”. President of Center for American Progress. 27 June 2008. advanced-design nuclear power plants "or other energy technology that reduces greenhouse gases to jump-start investment in these critical energy facilities. while 47 percent named global warming as a first or second choice and 46 percent named energy security first or second. 22 . This is a sharp change from the results of a Bisconti Research survey in October 2007. we urge you to enunciate support and swift.Shared. The Senate has now laid plans to debate clean alternative energy proposals in May. including nuclear. to produce electricity while limiting greenhouse gas emissions. ahead of the threat of climate change and the need for energy security. This new poll demonstrates that legislators can support clean alternative energy and limits on global warming pollution with the confidence that the American people will enthusiastically applaud such efforts. UM 08 MNDI Elections. activists have been joined now by other Americans who. Nearly 80 percent of Americans endorse the use of federal financial incentives to help promote development of carbon-free energy technologies. "There is still a clear public mandate for climate change solutions. Seventy-eight percent of Americans agree that electric companies should prepare now so that new nuclear plants could be built if needed within the next decade. Air pollution was ranked first or second by 43 percent of 9 percent). and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. wind. If the political will exists. From Al Gore and Davis Guggenheim’s Oscar win for “An Inconvenient Truth” to the thousands who participated in “Step It Up” events last week in advocacy of carbon emissions reductions and the “Live Earth” global warming concerts planned for July 7th on every continent." said Bisconti Research President Ann Bisconti." The survey found that public support for preparing for and building new nuclear power plants remains strong. Laura Nichols." 57 percent of Americans named economic growth among the top two concerns. 2008. Sixty-seven percent associate nuclear energy "a lot" or "a little" as a climate change solution. Daniel Weiss. The number of Americans "strongly approving" of tax credits exceeded the number of Americans "strongly disapproving" by the same four-to-one margin (37 percent vs. Support was nearly identical when Americans were asked about providing federal loan guarantees to companies that build solar. Americans want accountability. theaters. "These numbers do not mean that the public is less worried about global climate change than they were last year. Eighty-two percent believe that nuclear energy will be "very" or "somewhat" important in meeting the nation's electricity needs in the years ahead. Scientists aren’t the only ones urging our leaders to take action on global warming—the American public demands it. in the tradition of our “can-do” spirit. Obama Elections Links. Asked to choose which of four issues seem "most important. LexisNexis Academic. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have laid the groundwork for what should be a bipartisan approach to addressing the public and scientific urgency – meeting the challenge they have set for Congress is critical.

27 June 2008 <http://www. a firm providing consulting services on renewable energy policy and market development.000 megawatts (MW) of new renewable energy coming on line. Obama Elections Links. if they are built. want their government to support renewable energy. Americans agree that the federal government should extend incentives that encourage greater use of renewable energy technologies.” 23 .CHKP for-US-Solar-and-Wind-Incentives-23442. “In 2007. Other factors include rapidly rising energy prices and growing import dependency of natural gas in addition to petroleum. the US is now the number two wind power globally and has increased solar installations by 50% in 2007. infusing some $20 billion in new investment into the economy.awea. and a growing bulwark patchwork of state incentives and public support. but not least. UM 08 MNDI Elections. the dawning realization that we are not going to drill our way to lower energy prices. the high probability of climate change having a bit of an impact on us.html>. Mark: Principal at Kestrel Development Company. “The results confirm that Americans.Renewable/Alternative Energy Popular with Public Public support partially responsible for past wind and solar tech Burger 08. JRs. in a poll commissioned by AWEA. will cost far more and their electricity will be far more expensive than our parents' generators.” Just 12% disagree. with almost 6. and that new coal and nuclear power plants.Shared. 2008) – By a 7-1 margin.glgroup. Overwhelming majority of Americans want USFG to support renewable energy American Wind Energy Association. The survey research firm Zogby International surveyed Americans on existing federal incentives for renewable energy.html Washington. according to a national poll released today by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). 2008. 2007 was a record-breaking year for renewable electricity generation in the United States. by an overwhelming majority. “The federal government should continue existing incentives to encourage greater use of renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar power. http://www. This is due to the moderate federal incentives in effect since 2005 (but only good for three years). The survey found that 85% of Americans agree with the statement. In spite of the American attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (certainly not because of it).” said AWEA Executive Director Randall Swisher. January 22. Burger. tax incentives for renewable energy created tens of thousands of jobs for Americans. We call upon Congress to help sustain this remarkable growth by extending these incentives. Last. But the federal production tax credit (PTC) and tax incentives for other renewable energy sources are now in danger of lapsing at the end of this year. DC (January 22.

redorbit.RPS Legislation Popular with Public Public support for renewable energy mandate stronger than ever Joshua Fershee. 83 percent of those in military families. UM 08 MNDI Elections. 24 .org/articles/show/70819. Rightly or wrongly. documents growing support for renewable energy and growing concern about energy independence as top domestic priorities for potential 2008 voters. 81 percent of rural voters. 2007. the prospects for approval look good this year. Professor in the Gerald Ford School of Public Policy at the University of opposition remains strong. JRs. and continually increasing state RPS legislation indicate that support for a renewable energy mandate is stronger than ever. 2007. 2008. May 17." And it looks like more states will join their ranks this year. said Barry Rabe. growing support from utilities. However. p. "These policies have proven popular in a number of states. The question remains: Is Congress? Considerable bipartisan voter support for a national RPS Facilities Net 07. June 8." Facilities Net.earthtimes. 15 Nov. namely Michigan. 86 percent of Southerners. Highlights of the survey include: .Shared. http://www. University of North Dakota School of Law. commissioned by the American Wind Energy Association." he said. North Carolina and Illinois. The poll. the majority of Americans appear ready to take a calculated risk to find out if renewable energy can fulfill its promise. A recent poll of potential 2008 voters found that Americans across the political spectrum support a new national standard for renewable electricity like those already in place in more than 20 Public opinion polls. 77 percent of self-identified conservatives.asp?id=7875>. "The majority of American citizens already live in Congressional districts with an RPS. Assistant Professor of Law. professor in the Gerald Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. http://www.77 percent of Republicans. 28 June 2008 <http://www.facilitiesnet.CHKP 7Wk. Obama Elections Links. "Poll Shows Bipartisan Support for National Renewable Electricity Standard.html Despite failure of similar legislation in the past. p.93 percent of conservatives agreed that energy independence “should be the government’s top priority” . 85 percent of independent voters and 92 percent of Democrats agreed that the Federal government should follow the lead of a number of states that now require at least some of their electricity come from renewable sources such as wind and solar RPS has proven popular with the American public Barry Rabe. where legislators are considering making the current voluntary standard mandatory.

CHKP 7Wk. We recently polled voter attitudes towards solar in Tex. in 2005. -. natural gas. http://gristmill.Solar Energy Popular with Public Overwhelming popularity for solar energy expansion Browning ‘7 [Adam. Politicians need to better understand this. even if it increases their monthly utility bills. 2008 A public opinion survey published last week in Florida indicates that residents overwhelmingly support State- backed initiatives to invest in solar energy. The survey.and the results were nearly 20 points higher than a similar poll in Calif. “Polls and Renewable Energy: People Want it”. the nationwide survey asked respondents to predict what source of energy would be used to generate the most electricity in 15 years. and 78 percent say they would be willing to pay up to $1 a month on their utility bills to pay for] There has been an absolute sea-change in the popularity of renewable energy in this country.grist. the state polled voters in 2004. JRs. “The Public Supports Solar Power”. And an article published last July in the New York Times reported that a survey conducted by a trade association from the nuclear power industry found that its respondents preferred — solar. R-Altamonte Springs. gaining 27 percent of respondents’ votes over other energy sources such as nuclear. The sun won. 3-28-2007. and coal. Obama Elections Links. Tampa Tribune's recent article "A Changing Political Climate": State Sen. According to the Times article. http://blog. and Fla. Survey results indicated that respondents favored developing more renewable energy sources over building more power plants by a two to one margin. To wit. When they do. good things solar-power/. public opinion polls regarding alternative energy often rank solar energy at the top of the list as the most viable alternative energy source. is pushing for more solar investment in Florida.Shared. Lee Constantine. According to the 2008 March/April edition of Solar Today.coolerplanet. Several public opinion surveys say that the public prefers solar energy Cooler Planet. As a precursor to California’s aggressive “Million Solar Roofs” initiative. Floridians are not alone in their enthusiasm for solar power. UM 08 MNDI Elections. So perhaps solar energy will soon draw singular attention in Congress? The public certainly has become more aware of energy tradeoffs 25 . commissioned by the state. March 20. Over 81 percent of the survey’s 625 respondents said that they are willing to pay a dollar more on their monthly utility bills to support the investment in solar energy. was conducted after high consumer demand depleted the state’s solar rebate program fund six months earlier than anticipated. co-founder of VSI. He says a recent Mason-Dixon poll found that 90 percent of Floridians think the Florida Legislature should encourage investment in solar energy. a publication from the American Solar Energy Society.

as the results of this survey clearly show. The message from consumers to homebuilders is clear . The survey was conducted in May of this year among 1.Shared. 2008. to California. May 30." said Ron Kenedi. renewable form of energy. Panels that convert sunlight to electricity are winning supporters around the world — from Europe. vice president. http://www.Solar Energy Popular with Public Solar energy enjoys public support DoE ‘8 [U. cited by 27 percent of those polled.CHKP 7Wk. It is no wonder solar power has captured the public imagination. where Gov. 2007 The trade association for the nuclear power industry recently asked 1. consumers are interested in solar energy. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s “Million Solar Roofs” initiative is promoted as building a homegrown industry and fighting global warming.000 Americans what energy source they thought would be used most for generating electricity in 15 years. 26 . “Growing Number of Americans Think That Solar Electricity Should Be Offered on All New Homes”. up significantly from one year ago (79 percent).S. evidence that Americans recognize the value of solar as a clean. Lexis-Nexis. where gleaming arrays cloak skyscrapers and farmers’ fields. First can differentiate themselves while satisfying customer needs by offering solar electricity on any home they build. Solar Energy Solutions Group. According to a recent Roper survey commissioned by Sharp Electronics “City Leadership in Going Solar”. Department of Energy – SunEdison.Nuclear poll: 27% said “SOLAR” would be most used for electricity in 15 years Solar energy consistently ranks at the top of alternative energy surveys – Americans recognize the potential of solar power Business Wire.pdf] Solar enjoys more public support than any other renewable resource . Sharp Electronics Corporation. April 15. JRs.Approval ratings over 90% since the late 1990’s » Florida: 59% of residents willing to pay 25 cents or more extra per month » Ohio: 89% of residents willing to pay 50 cents or more extra per month .solaramericacities. The winner was the sun. Obama Elections Links. where stock offerings for panel makers have had a great ride. or coal or natural gas. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Three-quarters of survey respondents perceive solar power to be more important than ever. nearly 90 percent of Americans think that solar electricity should be an option for all new home construction.004 adults to measure their perceptions of solar power. to Wall Street. The top choice? Not nuclear plants. "More and more.

Vermont.000 participants). Opinion surveys regularly show that just over eight out of 10 people (80%) are in favor of wind energy. a finding from several surveys carried out in the UK and in Spain. April 2005. UM 08 MNDI Elections. http://www. “Wind Energy Benefits”. the largest customer-driven wind energy program in the nation (more than 30. But when accurate information and knowledge is made available. experienced 30% annual growth from 1998 to 2003. Accessed June 24. along with concern over debilitating illnesses associated with air pollutants.Wind Energy Popular with Public Wind energy is farming public support EEC ‘7 [Endless Energy Corporation. Last updated Spring 2007. Public support for wind energy – public opinion increases after implementation AWEA ‘7 [America Wind Energy Association. The rest are undecided.nrel. “Wind Energy Policy Issues”. and less than one in ten (around 5%) are against it. In Searsburg. Once the wind farm is built.html#What%20is%20net%20metering%20(net%20billing)%20and %20how%20does%20it%20work] Wind energy is one of the most popular energy technologies.awea. Xcel Energy’s Windsource.shtml] Public approval for wind projects usually starts high (before the project is started) and support consistently increases after the wind farm is constructed. more than 300 utilities currently offer green pricing programs that include wind energy. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.Shared. the wind farm project had a 66% approval / neutral rating before construction and 83% afterwards. wind has overwhelming public support.S.pdf] The people want wind energy. Deliberative public polling in Texas7 and Nebraska8 demonstrated overwhelming support of wind energy as an element of the generation portfolio. Last updated 2007. JRs. Department of Energy. Many people express their support by purchasing blocks of wind energy to power their homes or businesses. many who were opposed to wind energy change their opinion and decide to support the wind farm. http://www.CHKP 7Wk. 2008. Some people who live near proposed wind projects may be apprehensive about them. Wind farming popular with the public DoE ‘5 [ Because customers want wind as a portion of their electricity Because of all the reasons listed above. http://www. Obama Elections Links. Public opinion in support of wind power tends to become even more strongly in favor once the wind turbines are installed and operating. Other projects have had similar results. experience shows that initial concerns are reduced and support for wind farms increases. “General Wind Farm Public Support”. 27 .

500 Americans conducted from July 28 through August 1. 61 percent of respondents said they support the increased use of nuclear power as a way to contain projected global warming. The Heartland Institute. JRs.Nuclear Energy Popular with Public Public support for nuclear energy will continually grow CSI ‘6 [Matthew Nisbet. Nuclear technology popularity growing now – recent energy policies prove Taylor ‘6 [James E. if and when the decision is made to build a new nuclear power plant in a specific area. Poll”. http://www. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 has made the regulatory process less difficult. Environment and Climate News. As a result. “Public Favors Nuclear Power. Energy producer Entergy has taken the lead on new plant construction and is likely to receive a site permit from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 2007 allowing a proposed new plant in Mississippi.CHKP 7Wk. Global warming fears have swayed many former opponents to support nuclear power. public support in the aggregate is also likely to increase. Entergy plans to add a second new nuclear power plant in Louisiana. 10-1-2006.heartland. “Going Nuclear: Frames and Public Opinion about Atomic Energy”." said Nuclear Energy Institute spokesperson Trish Conrad. Poll”. http://www. In a telephone poll of nearly 1. The federal Energy Policy Act of 2005 removed some of the obstacles to new plant construction. according to testimony by Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Nils Diaz in May 2006 before the Senate Energy] Nuclear energy is likely to remain a “third rail” of environmental Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. while only 30 percent opposed it.. http://www. the Miami Herald and Kalamazoo Gazette published house editorials supporting increased use of nuclear power. Who shows up to protest. 16 companies have formally notified federal authorities they are considering building new nuclear power plants. Environment and Climate News. or speak out at the local level will have a stronger impact on the future of nuclear energy in the U.heartland. UM 08 MNDI Elections. and for good reason. published August 4.Shared. Nuclear energy is also likely to remain an ambivalent issue for the generation of Americans who lived through Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.. with many environmental groups willing to devote heavy resources to opposing any new plant construction. than the current struggle to shape national opinion. mobilized minorities of local citizens will prove decisive. according to a new poll by Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times. and environmentally friendly power source. as recent poll trends suggest. are in line with increasing support for nuclear power in newspaper editorial departments. 10-1-2006. economical. with the images and frames of a runaway technology easily evoked by carefully designed message strategies. Polls prove nuclear technology is popular with the majority of American public Taylor ‘6 [James E. The poll continues a trend of ever-increasing public support for nuclear power as a clean. The Heartland Institute.csicop. and as the perceived urgency of energy independence and global warming increases. and it is likely to receive an NRC site permit for that plant in 2008. The Skeptical Inquirer. And public support is really lining up behind nuclear power.S. Obama Elections Links. vote. The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll results. However. However.cfm?artId=19723] Twice as many Americans support nuclear power as oppose it. 6-1-2006." 28 . Shortly after the poll results were released.cfm?artId=19723] The growing public support for nuclear power is already having positive effects on future construction plans. "Expanded baseload production will be needed to meet growing demand [for electricity]. the more time passes with no new focusing events related to the dangers of nuclear energy. Framing will be the central device by which both advocates and opponents of nuclear energy manage public opinion at the national “Public Favors Nuclear Power. "There are several factors working in favor of development and expansion of nuclear power plants in the near future.

” http://johnibiii.A recent Gallup poll showed 57% of Americans now favor further exploration off the U. is that the NEI surveys are by far the best historical record of public sentiment. 2006 As is common in policy debates. Carey. Strongly Favorable Increases to 35% In the October survey. including record high levels of those who “strongly support” the use of nuclear energy. A new national public opinion poll shows that two-thirds of Americans favor the use of nuclear energy as one of the ways to provide electricity in the United States. public opinion”. Today. John E. 29 . The most recent national poll of 1.S. 67% of Americans support domestic nuclear power Carey 8. the best polls on public sentiment. Notice the variations in public support over time.S. and then climbs to historic highs in 2004-2006. Bisconti Research with RoperASW has tracked public opinion about nuclear energy and related issues several times a year during this period of intense discussion of both energy security and the security of important elements of the nation’s infrastructure like nuclear power plants. Environment. find that 86 percent of Americans like nuclear power Matthew Nisbet. Support for nuclear energy surged in early 2001 during development of a National Energy Plan and has remained at or near record high levels except for a small decline in June of this year. And 35 percent strongly favor the use of nuclear energy compared with 15 percent who are strongly opposed. Assistant Professor at American University. UM 08 MNDI Elections. according to the NEI polls. Other surveys have been administered only intermittently. they write: “A recent nationwide poll by Bisconti Research found that 86 percent of Americans see nuclear energy as an important part of meeting future electricity needs and 77 percent agree that utilities should prepare now to build new nuclear plants in the next roughly 70% of the public say that they favor the use of nuclear energy as one of the ways to provide electricity in the U. The dip again in 1995 and 1996 is not as easily explained.S. Peace and Freedom ’08. In a May Boston Globe op-ed. though it could be attributable to negative news attention brought about by the ten year anniversary of Chernobyl.S. “Congress Well Behind Public Opinion on Energy. Take for example Christine Todd Whitman and Patrick Moore. http://www. November 2002. with items asked consistently every year since the early 1980s. June 1.000 adults was conducted October environment/ A May 2008 public opinion survey by Zogby International shows 67% of Americans support the construction of nuclear powered electric generating plants in the U. JRs. particularly the drop in support after Chernobyl in 1986.Nuclear power does not create carbon emissions during the generating process.Yet Congress has not enacted any legeslation to move ahead on nuclear power or new drilling. The problem. As a general rule. advocates on both sides claim that the public backs their preferred policy options. declines in 2002 and 2003 with the threat of terrorist attacks on power plants. two-thirds of the public (65 percent) favor the use of nuclear energy.Shared. polls commissioned by advocacy groups often paint things in rosier terms than polls conducted by news organizations or independent outfits like Gallup or the Pew Center for the People and the Press.csicop. Those Who “Strongly Support” at Record Levels. Survey of U.Nuclear Energy Popular with Public Two-thirds of Americans support the use of nuclear energy NMC ‘2 [Nuclear Management Company publishing Bisconti Research. Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.wordpress. Public Opinion October 4-6. The polling on nuclear energy is no exception. “Survey of U. however. Two-Thirds of the Public Favors Nuclear Energy. a pro-industry think tank. peaks in 2001 during that year’s energy debate.CHKP 7Wk. Figure 1 plots the results of one of the standard items asked nearly every year by NEI since the early 1980s.S.” But is this an accurate characterization of public opinion? The Bisconti polling was commissioned by the Nuclear Energy Institute. coasts at sea and in the wilds of places like the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR). NEI surveys. Obama Elections Links. 2002 Two-thirds of Americans Support Use of Nuclear Energy. The trend in rising public support appears to recover in 1998.

nytimes. Americans now want immediate action.americanprogress. 10-11- 2006. 30 . A multinational poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs finds that global warming is a big concern among the Chinese and the Indian publics and is viewed especially urgently by South Koreans and Australians.S. Case closed: global warming evident and caused primarily by human actions. The U. and that America should lead the way.” This percentage is up 9 points from the 34 percent willing to pay significant costs in a Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) poll taken in June 2005. when only 37 percent believed global warning put U. and Marjorie Connelly. Global Warming”. while just 34 percent believe global warming is caused more by nature. 2007. Asked to choose the argument that comes closest to their opinion about global warming. 26 June 2008 <http://www. Americans believe this will be a boon for the economy. and 1 percent said no steps were needed. only 17 percent of Americans agree that “until we are sure that global warming is really a problem.. Obama Elections Links. including 50 percent who strongly believe this[1]—a 7-point increase since November 2005[2]. Australians and the Chinese agree that action needs to be taken now. John M. Indians prefer a more gradual approach. Many Americans. will create jobs. Broder. alternative energy and they want their leadership to act now to change our energy policies to put the country on the right path.17-07. The poll found that 84 percent of Americans see human activity as at least contributing to warming. As this survey demonstrates. UM 08 MNDI Elections.html] A new survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the Center for American Progress shows a heightened demand among Americans for immediate action to tackle global warming and achieve energy independence. even if it involves significant expenditures. the latest New York Times/CBS News poll finds. the public debate over whether global warming is here and whether it is caused by humans is The public wants major change that quickly moves the country toward energy independence. interests. Ninety percent of Democrats. "Poll Finds Majority See Threat in Global Warming. More Americans See Global Warming as Threat American concern about global warming has surged nine points since 2004. so we can deal with the problem gradually. More than three-quarters (76 percent) of people believe the effects of global warming are apparent now.CHKP 7Wk. American public demands anti-global warming policies now Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research ‘7 [Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. vital interests at risk. “World Publics Willing to Bear Costs of Combating Climate Change”.org/issues/2007/04/environment_poll. Most telling. which represents an 8-point increase in the past 16 months. Americans are demanding clean.Addressing Global Warming popular with Public Massive public support for policies to combat global warming WPO ‘6 [World Public Opinion. We should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs. Concern about energy and global warming now rivals health care as the top domestic issue that requires immediate action. Several recent international reports have concluded with near certainty that human activities are the main cause of global warming since 1950.php?lb=bte&pnt=255&nid=&id=] Concern about global warming has increased sharply in the United States.” Thirty-seven percent think that the problem of global warming should be addressed but that “its effects will be gradual. http://www." The New York Times 26 Apr. Sixty-one percent believe that global warming is caused more by human actions than by naturally occurring forces. Americans believe reducing dependence on oil and coal to stop global warming is one of the most important challenges our country faces (29 percent) on par with bringing down rising health care costs (32 percent) and well ahead of other issues. 80 percent of independents and 60 percent of Republicans said immediate action was required to curb the warming of the atmosphere and deal with its effects on the global climate.Shared. Nearly half of the American public sees climate change as a critical threat to vital U. Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the current energy policies and now believe America has fallen behind the rest of the world on energy. The Chicago Council’s 2006 survey shows that 46 percent of Americans now consider climate change menacing. 4. JRs. The poll also found that Americans want the United States to support conservation and to be a global leader in addressing environmental problems and developing alternative energy sources to reduce reliance on fossil fuels like oil and coal. raising it to the upper half of international threats. Americans in large bipartisan numbers say the heating of the earth’s atmosphere is having serious effects on the environment now or will soon and think that it is necessary to take immediate steps to reduce its effects.” The highest percentage (43%) says global warming is “a serious and pressing problem. public is not alone. Forty-five percent strongly agree that human actions are primarily responsible for global warming[3].S. “New Urgency for Action on Energy Independence.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&sq=solar%20power %20poll&st=cse&scp=5>. Polls finds that curbing global warming is an important bipartisan issue NYT 07. Nineteen percent said it was not necessary to act now. we should not take any steps that would have economic costs.worldpublicopinion. Only small minorities in the United States and the other countries surveyed think that evidence for global warming is too weak to justify measures that might entail economic costs.

Today.awea. It is not clear at present what impact this will have on net metering programs. http://www. and both upheld their net metering requirements.state. “The solar economy is thriving in the Hudson Valley and the imminent arrival of the Solar Energy Consortium promises to turn the region into a hot spot for the industry’s expansion. Last updated 2007. “The expansion of net metering will have an enormous long term economic benefit in terms of promoting the Hudson Valley as a hub for solar innovation and development.pdf] Utilities in several states have challenged net metering orders or petitioned the PUCs to terminate the net metering requirements. and others are considering it. the Iowa Utilities Board withdrew a proposal to eliminate Iowa’s existing net metering rule following a significant display of public support. New York State Assembly member. Thirty- four states have enacted it in some form. James Green. and that it is standard practice in the utility industry for utilities to trade power among themselves without accounting for differences in the cost of generating the various kilowatt-hours involved. Obama Elections Links. does not apply to retail metering and billing.aocwind. the legal issues arising from net metering orders are not completely resolved. JRs. In March 1998. So far none has succeeded in overturning an existing net metering order. EL-93-55-000.8 MW to the new 10 MW is very. and utilities may continue their challenges at the state level. Both PUCs maintain that the state has the right to establish alternative billing and metering practices for retail transactions and these rights are not preempted by PURPA. October 18. Executive Vice President of the New York Solar Energy Industries Association. “Wind Energy Policy Issues”. Cahill. H.” said Mr. which involves wholesale transactions.6 Utility challenges have been based on the premise that net metering orders violate PURPA and often cite the FERC decision on Connecticut Light and Power. The PSC is sending an important signal that New York State is open for business – solar energy business – and utilities need to do their part to help consumers benefit from this clean renewable energy source. Empirical support for net metering – Iowa proves NREL ’98 [National Renewable Energy Laboratory. very exciting news – far beyond what we expected. Americans want more net metering Kevin A.Net Metering popular with Public Popularity for net metering is growing now AWEA ‘7 [America Wind Energy “Cahill Energized Over Public Service Commission Net Metering Decision”. which states that PURPA bars the states from requiring utilities to pay QFs the retail rate. However. Many utilities have argued against net metering laws. May 1998.” 31 . “Current Experience with Net Metering Programs”. PUCs of both states found that net metering requirements do not violate PURPA because utilities are not required to purchase electricity from customers at a rate higher than utility avoided cost. saying that they are being required. 2007 "Every public opinion poll done on solar energy confirms consumers want more solar. The PSC decision to raise the net metering limit for Central Hudson from its current 1. rather than having to sell the power to the utility at the price the utility pays for the wholesale electricity it buys or generates itself. Another uncertainty is utility restructuring and retail Cahill. They also ruled that the Connecticut Light and Power decision.html#What%20is%20net%20metering%20(net%20billing)%20and%20how %20does%20it%20work] Net metering can improve the economics of a residential wind turbine by allowing the turbine's owner to use her excess electricity to offset utility-supplied power at the full retail rate.Shared. to buy power from wind turbine owners at full retail rates. net metering's popularity is growing.” said Christine Donovan.CHKP 7Wk. Yih-Huei Wan. in effect. wind energy advocates have successfully argued that what is going on is a power swap. and are therefore being deprived of a profit on part of their electricity sales.ny. UM 08 MNDI Elections. No. http://assembly. PUCs of Maine7 and Minnesota8 did rule on the PURPA issue related to net metering in 1997. http://www.

not given away to large polluters.cgi? f=/c/a/2008/05/18/IN3R10MGSK. http://www.npr.perhaps a first . San Francisco Chronicle. concern over imported oil from the Middle East. January 2008.sfgate.DTL The Democratic presidential candidates have each committed to a national energy portfolio of at least 25 percent of electricity from clean energy sources by 2025." National Public Radio. Scientists know that the most credible signals of a warming climate reside in the evolving patterns of weather over the long-term. 30 Jan. But the questions all are tied to money. Yale Climate Media Forum. Protecting the environment is one of the top three campaign issues South Bend Tribune (Indiana). p. The new awareness results from several factors: A growing consensus among Americans on the left and right that global warming issues must be addressed. http://www. 32 .yaleclimatemediaforum. Lexis Ross said the top three campaign issues in his mind are the county's financial crisis. We are now in a moment . 2008. and the newfound muscle of California's eco-voters. Climate issue has potential to transform 2008 presidential election Bruce Lieberman. and sadly. and all three candidates are in favor of cap-and-trade systems to build greenhouse gas markets. p. p. "One hell of a Katrina next September would totally transform what happens on November still have.Climate/Environment key 2008 Election Issue Climate change now a front-burner election issue National Public Radio 08. he said. Climate change is moving to the front burner for many of the candidates vying for the Democratic and Republican nominations in 2008. not on the one we maintaining the county's infrastructure and protecting the environment. 28 June 2008 <http://www. environmental issues have taken a back seat in national elections. May 4. May 18. but politically challenging. JRs. It is vital. Ross said." Corell said.CHKP 7Wk.htm What happens between now and election day to elevate or sink the climate change issue in the minds of the electorate is anyone's guess. And that could certainly change the dynamics of the campaign's final months.compulsion to put a face on global warming. Obama Elections Links. Historically.where a growing view exists that energy and climate could be front-burner issues for candidates and voters.Shared.html>. 2008. Reported on science issues from 2002-2007 for the San Diego Union-Tribune. The time is right to focus on the energy system we want. thanks to their state's early primary this year.and the media's . to make sure that all emissions credits are auctioned. Energy and climate will be a front-burner issue in the 2008 presidential election Daniel Kammen. Professor in the Energy and Resources Group and in the Goldman School of Public Policy at UC Berkeley. But another summer of punishing heat waves or a cataclysmic season of Atlantic hurricanes could play into the public's . which goes back to the so-called Circuit Breaker legislation. 2008. UM 08 MNDI Elections. "Elections 2008. But that appears to be changing. All three are key to whether the county can encourage and attract future growth.

the No.Energy key 2008 Election Issue Alternative technologies and US energy policy will be a major electoral issue. Adjunct Senior Fellow for Science and Technology at the Council on Foreign Relations. Lexis Oil prices flirting with $100 a barrel. 2008. energy-independent. Only 14 percent of people believe we lead the world in developing these technologies. a majority of Americans (52 percent) believes the U. Energy issues will have unprecedented prominence in 2008 presidential election Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. http://www. including Andrew Shapiro of GreenOrder and Jesse Fink of Marshall Street Management. after the Green Debate.cfr.S. national press secretary for the Sierra Club. Regardless of who they choose to run against Sen. alternative energy. along with a significant bloc of Republicans (41 percent). ''Only 27 percent of people feel that our energy policy is headed in the right direction. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Shapiro argues. High prices are sapping economic growth.'' the Greenberg firm said. and solving that problem will require radical new energy technologies as well.large majorities of independent voters want USFG action The New York Times. GreenPrimary.S. "Even in '04. Obama Elections Links. we're happy everybody is talking about it. is either falling or has fallen far behind other countries in developing clean. Lexis A group of environmental voters can study the different candidates' policy positions and even vote for the one they think is most serious.'' Mr. p. All this is good news in the rest of the world.aspx Two issues top the (Energy has spiked in its importance to voters in recent months as gas prices have risen to the $4-per-gallon level. 2007.html?breadcrumb=%2Fbios %2F3131%2Fdavid_g_victor Democrats voting in Ohio and Texas may well decide the shape of the U. the all but certain Republican candidate. conducted for the Center for American Progress. natural gas and electricity are also more costly than a few years ago. while there was a clear difference between the to host online forums where. 1 concern across most of the country. ''The 2008 presidential campaign will present the first opportunity for a national candidate to make sustainability a breakthrough electoral issue.CHKP 7Wk. "The bottom line for us. p. p.S.Shared. p." said David Willett. warnings of climate change and holiday road trips fueled by gas topping $3 a gallon are combining to give energy issues unprecedented prominence in the presidential campaign. March 3. June 24. A new survey released last week by the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. it wasn't really a campaign issue. Gasoline is now approaching $4 a gallon. just created a Website. it is likely that energy issues will figure more prominently in the election than at any time in the last generation.) 33 . based on the percentage rating each as extremely important in choosing between candidates: energy/gas prices and the economy. John McCain. http://www." Energy has spiked in its importance to voters in recent months Gallup. April 25. November 25.'' Energy issues will figure prominently in 2008 presidential election David Victor. JRs. ''Moreover. underscores that large majorities of independents (59 percent) and Democrats (76 percent) support action now to stop global warming and make the U. while 65 percent say our energy policy is seriously off on the wrong track. which is hoping that a new regime in Washington will put the United States on a more sustainable energy path. Global warming has become a bipartisan worry. 2008. presidential election.

"Gas At $4 Brings Promises. May 13. Raum. Obama and McCain have made high gas prices a top issue in their campaigns and have offered dueling remedies aimed at easing them. and rent. Lexis Oil prices keep climbing to record highs. “Energy Solutions Vs.) Americans won’t be taking to the highways for summer vacation as they have in the past.proxy. Oil and gas prices that have doubled in the past year have squeezed aside the war in Iraq as the No. 24 June 2008. 28 June 2008. professor emeritus of politics at Princeton University. including gas prices. threatening to push the US economy into recession. p. And both make it sound as if only their proposals would chart the path to lower fuel prices and a final cure for what President Bush once labeled the nation's addiction to foreign oil." Associated Press. Filling a 20— gallon tank now costs more than $80. LexisNexis Academic. And I believe it is time for the federal government to lift these restrictions and to put our own reserves to use. we called it a 'refuge' for a reason. By the end of the year." The Texas Observer 27 June docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4056392213&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=101&resultsUrlKe y=29_T4056392216&cisb=22_T4056392215&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8176&docNo=. JRs. tying it with the economy as the top 7Wk. American voters are close to being ready to tap sources of oil in unused federal park lands like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and more than ready to drill beneath the oceans and in the outer continental shelf. http://www. everytime they fill their tanks. In a USA Today-Gallup Poll released Monday.08 a gallon for regular unleaded. Gas prices are the single biggest election issue Washington Times June 19. reflecting the polls. called for more ocean exploration Tuesday: "We have proven oil reserves of at least 21 billion barrels in the United States. Fuel prices likely will be a dominant election issue this fall. Energy Politics.umich. a Rasmussen phone poll taken Tuesday showed a much larger percentage. nine in 10 people said energy. politicians can't leave it alone. 33 percent said they are not and another 14 percent said they are not sure.Gas Prices key 2008 Election Issue Gas prices are the biggest issue this election Associated Press June 25. and economic issues are a top concern for American voters during this presidential election year when they will choose a successor to Bush. gasoline prices are now the single biggest issue for voters in the 2008 presidential election. of voters supporting offshore drilling and 64 percent said they think it would lower prices at the 67 percent. Gas prices will be a dominant election issue Texas Observer June 27. Tom. 2008." said Fred Greenstein." He is still not ready to drill in ANWR: "When America set aside the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Their positions are being echoed daily by their surrogates on Capitol Hill.lib. With the average at $4. Obama Elections Links. 1 issue this election year and both parties are blaming each other for the price spike — and for apparent congressional paralysis. 34 . some analysts say gas could hit $6 a gallon. (Elevated fuel costs have contributed to skyrocketing food prices as>. Is it open season for pandering? "I think it is. John McCain. A Fox 5/The Washington Times/Rasmussen poll released Monday showed that 53 percent of voters were ready to open up federal parks like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to oil drilling.4 billion fewer highway miles in April 2008 than they did in April Pandering. People said Obama would do a better job than McCain on energy issues by 19 percentage points." Oil prices and economic issues top concern for American voters in presidential election Chinadaily. or even the intermediate term.php?aid=2791>. This is a real pressure point for people every day." The Washington Times 19 June 2008. 28 June 2008 <http://www. Therefore.Shared. Yet energy experts and economists — and even some of the candidates' own advisers — say none of their signature proposals will have any impact on $4 gasoline or $130 a barrel oil in the near term. "Pandering At the Pump. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Working families are feeling the pinch—some choose between money for gas and basic needs like food. would be very or extremely important in deciding their presidential vote in November. This debate is certain to get louder as the November election approaches. 25 June 2008 <http://ap. Gas prices are so high the rural unemployed cannot afford to leave their houses to look for work. The Department of Transportation reports that Americans drove 1.

his racial journey. http://www. The American Prospect. just as a clear decision to leave Iraq would provide much greater leverage for diplomacy and military force in a whole variety of new ways. he couched his progressive. http://www. Poll after poll has found that when Democrats respond aggressively to claims that they are not equipped to defend America they are able to offset Republican advantages. The strong argument that they will rests on Harvard professor Joseph Nye's notion of "soft power": The idea that America's real strength rests not so much on its ability to impose -.but on its ability to attract. Maybe all that will come to pass. editor of Te Atlantic Newspaper. global development and the dangers of failed states. In the run up to the 2006 mid-term elections when Republicans began accusing Democrats of being soft on terrorism because of their opposition to warrantless wiretapping.Shared. is a professor of politics and international studies at the University of San Francisco. His international heritage. Instead. a Democracy Corps study found that the best response was to take the argument head article=its_time_to_stop_talking_about_soft_power] It's possible to build a compelling national security message by tying traditional progressive themes into the ideas of Soft Power: promoting a foreign policy that reflects our values and traditions. Obama did not try to prove his toughness with hawkish saber rattling about war. after a disastrous eight years. At the same time. Even more important than the specific wording is the manner in which the message is delivered. Obama offers a double dollop of global promise. Mr. and maybe all will be well. both because of who he is and because of what he says he will do: Talk to Hugo Chávez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. May 29. Similarly. Apr 24. In this reading. policy director @ National Secuirty Network. Watch out for that pedestal!. when Democrats stood up to the president in March 2007 and passed legislation to end the Iraq War. http://www. UM 08 MNDI Elections. It's Time to Stop Talking About Soft Power. their poll numbers on security improved -. Obama Elections it can and often does through the military and economic tools of hard power -.php?showtopic=1348] "The question is whether the virtues that Mr. will be better liked (or less disliked) in places like Britain and Germany.not because they were taking the traditionally "hard" position but because they were asserting themselves. a Foreign Policy In Focus analyst. members of Obama’s foreign policy team are “more likely to stress ’soft power’ issues like human rights.Obama victory key to US Soft Power Obama is the best bet for increasing US soft power.prospect.html] The simple existence of Obama as a new president in a new century would in itself enhance America’s soft power immeasurably. Obama would mean the rebranding of America. reduce carbon emissions and so on. as The Nation magazine noted. shut down Guantanamo. Perhaps the best lesson that Democrats can draw is from Barack Obama's forceful response to President Bush's claim that having a dialogue with Iran is the equivalent of appeasement.fpif. http://andrewsullivan. using all of our tools to tackle complex All of these messages reflect the thinking behind Soft Power but do not connote weakness. smart argument that there is a value to communicating with those we have strong disagreements with in the most assertive terms possible: "If George Bush and John McCain want to have a debate about protecting the United States of America that is a debate I am happy to have any time. Obama would bring to the Oval Office as a symbol will translate into effectiveness as a president.” As a result. Obama will at the very least keep the US image from falling.” And new approaches are definitely Clearly an Obama victory will mean that the] Progressive Democrats do have reason to be disappointed with Obama’s foreign policy agenda. Feb 4. not liabilities. any place.theatlantic.S.that’s key to heg Goldenberg 08 [Ilan. JRs. Obama: The Value Of Soft Power.multiple reasons Sullivan 07 [Andrew.but will most likely increase soft power Wall Street Journal 08 [May 21. The Re-Branding of America. Obama will stress soft power Zunes 08 [Stephen Zunes. 35 ." Obama will increase US soft power.civildiscourse. his middle name: these are assets for this country.CHKP 7Wk. “Obama may be more open to challenging old Washington assumptions and crafting new approaches. reestablishing our moral authority in the world. where the Illinois senator is often billed as a new Jack Kennedy or even Abraham Lincoln.. Behind Obama and Clinton. What mattered was less the substance of the argument than the fact that Democrats were unafraid to defend their ideas.

com/doc/200712/obama What does he offer? First and foremost: his face. Obama Elections op. there's his color and his name. "Soft" may sound weak or pejorative. Obama potentially America's first soft power president? To begin.Shared. p. Obama's potentially pathbreaking foreign policy doctrine. former Sen. http://www. is two-pronged: a function of both hard power and soft power. What Mr. The war on Islamist terror. think again. A refugee with an empty belly is not much interested in discourse on constitutional theories of checks and balances. Obama believes is that in societies paralyzed by dehumanizing poverty. Schaller teaches political science at UMBC. and its profound limitations in winning a long war against radical Islam. But it may provide the United States a chance for a fresh start . They see Iraq. ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) are hard power.CHKP 7Wk. Atlantic Magazine senior Editor." said Mr. We have also seen its inherent weaknesses in Iraq. Such a re-branding is not trivial—it’s central to an effective war strategy.but then argued there's also a wall distorting our global image. As to those who say they don't care what foreigners think . Mr. a country whose elites are European in descent and mindset but that also features a huge population of Afro-Brazilians. who grew up in Indonesia and Hawaii. Because reputations are easy to destroy but difficult to rehabilitate. May 21. whether deriving from Paris or Karachi or Addis Ababa.Obama victory key to US Soft Power Barack Obama victory would immediately ratchet up America’s soft power a logarithm Andrew Sullivan. It proves them wrong about what America is in ways no words can. In one simple image. Guantanamo. Obama. must thaw the chilling effect of the Bush years. has The Simpsons on its cable package and a McDonald's a few blocks away. And. Obama is an emerging global icon. between "axis of evil" members Iran and North Korea. the Bush administration fertilizes rising anti-American radicalism with its reckless bad-neighbor policies. UM 08 MNDI Elections. who seem to wear anti-Americanism. who attended a majority-Muslim school as a boy. America’s soft power has been ratcheted up not a notch. too. For citizens of the world who are familiar with the sight of our Golden Arches or the sound Windows XP makes when they boot their Dell laptops. Mr. notional and cultural exports. 36 .S." If that notion itself sounds a wee bit soft. KFCs (Colonel Sanders' global fast-food chain) are soft power. Barack Obama the future "soft power" president of the United States? My current trip to Brazil and one a few months ago to Saudi Arabia .soft power is comparatively better than hard and key to heg Schaller 08 [Thomas F. and foreign policy all make him able. Saudis I met were both fascinated by the prospect that America could elect a black man with the middle name Hussein. December. from which I write. Which is where his face comes in. "The America as the beacon of hope is behind that wall. he may yet prove to be America's next great export.0.have convinced me that he would have a chance for a transformative global impact. as some sort of badge of honor .this is a myopic and dangerous way to look at the world. more significantly. ethnic and tribal violence. Think of it as the most effective potential re-branding of the United States since Reagan. John Edwards talked about the walls that divide us here in America . Obama and his foreign policy team emphasize "dignity promotion" over "democracy expansion. soft power relies on our moral. back home. Consider that the Marriott hotel on Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana Beach. and generally convinced it could never happen. 2007. survey in which people around the world were asked to rate 12 major countries in terms of their positive and negative influence revealed that America's negative rating (51 percent) was third worst. In Brazil. We have seen the potential of hard power in removing the Taliban and Saddam Hussein. secret prisons and government that argues that waterboarding is not torture. but also to create an ideological template that works to the West’s advantage over the long haul.schaller21may21. Then. Our security depends on it. http://www. race. In his speech last week endorsing Mr. there is a similar feeling of cautious optimism.column] Is Sen. there's a much greater chance to germinate terrorist ideas. His column appears regularly in The Sun. is now the alleged enemy." A 2007 British Broadcasting Corp.or worse. It derives from our ability to persuade the planet with our values. "And all the world sees now is a bully. after all. to fight where necessary. Meanwhile. with apologies for commodifying him. A brown-skinned man whose father was an African. the U. To use the shorthand of color. there is Mr. products and identity. The Atlantic Magazine. JRs. So what makes Mr. but a logarithm.a reason for nations that not long ago respected America because it set an example for the world to renew their beliefs in the world's lone remaining superpower. There is simply no other candidate with the potential of Obama to do this. our markets do.baltimoresun. an Obama victory this November will not be a panacea. which is exercised through our military and economic clout. Obama’s face gets close. or lacking safe or abundant food and water supplies.two countries that could hardly be more different . Obama is the next soft power president. A young Pakistani Muslim is watching television and sees that this man—Barack Hussein Obama—is the new face of America. but it's not. Consider this hypothetical. Unlike American "hard" power. Baltimore Sun. The fact is. It’s November 2008.5752532. not only is there little hope of democracies emerging.theatlantic. Edwards. The next president has to create a sophisticated and supple blend of soft and hard power to isolate the enemy. If you wanted the crudest but most effective weapon against the demonization of America that fuels Islamist ideology. explained by Spencer Ackerman in a recent cover piece for The American Prospect..

it is highly unlikely that terrorists could destroy American power. forms of distraction. At the same time. American leadership is more effective when it is morally based. The one entity with the capacity to challenge the United States in the near future is the European Union if it were to become a tight federation with major military capabilities and if the relations across the Atlantic were allowed to sour.Soft Power key to US Hegemony Soft Power key to sustaining US leadership – assumes the 21st century NYE 02 former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Dean of Harvard University's John F. “The global age has not changed the fact that nothing in the world can be done without the United States. a Harvard professor who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Bill Clinton. our soft power will play a major role. Yes. An Australian analyst may be right in her view that if the United States plays its cards well and acts not as a soloist but as the leader of a concert of nations. Let's begin with soft power. Soft power has the advantage of being much less violent than brute force. and should be used when necessary—as was demonstrated in Afghanistan and Iraq. Even short of a military balance of limitations. they return to their home countries immersed in American values. 37 . moreover. the diminished fungibility of military power in a global information age means that Europe is already well placed to balance the United States on the economic and transnational chessboards. If we respond effectively. and values. When foreign students undertake studies in the United States. Nye has defined soft power as "the ability to achieve desired outcomes in international affairs through attraction rather than coercion. the not inconsequential virtue of being much less costly. But American leadership in the world must depend on the assertion of soft power—namely. in terms of its duration. as the French critic Dominique Moisi puts it. become more like the Pax Romana than the Pax Britannica:’74 If so. hard power is needed as an implied threat. Why keep the peace with ground troops. In short. Nonetheless. the global appeal of American lifestyles. and modes of thinking." Nye argues. Such an outcome is possible but would require major changes in Europe and considerable ineptitude in American policy to bring it about. 18. and inter-continental missiles when Big Macs. aircraft carriers. Kennedy School of Government (Joseph. It can claim. As Henry Kissinger has argued. UM 08 MNDI Elections. “the Pax Americana.”73 The United States can learn useful lessons about a strategy of providing public goods from the history of Pax Britannica.75 United States leadership is solely dependent on Soft power FRASER 03 doctorate in political science from Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris. other countries may be driven to work together to take actions to complicate American objectives. “Weapons of Mass Distraction: Soft Power and American Empire”). Nye. more specifically. p. Obama Elections Impacts. That was the greatness achieved by Rome and Britain in their times. the United States is unlikely to face a challenge to its preeminence unless it acts so arrogantly that it helps other states to overcome their built. . . The term has been championed by Joseph S. attitudes.CHKP 7Wk. military muscle. and Hollywood blockbusters can help achieve the same long-term goals? Soft power also includes artistic expression and institutional arrangements—such as travelling exhibitions and scholarly exchange programs—that help export American models. even short of such a challenge. and coercive capacities. . culture. Or. but the campaign against terrorism will require a long and sustained effort. And the multiplicity of new actors means that there is very little the United States can achieve alone. Coca-Cola. JRs. the test of history for the United States will be whether we can turn our current predominant power into international consensus and our own principles into widely accepted international norms. norms. that America's global influence cannot depend solely on its economic strength. might. “The Paradox of American Power”) PEERING INTO THE FUTURE The September 2001 wake-up call means that Americans are unlikely to slip back into the complacency that marked the first decade after the Cold War.Shared. former Editor-in-Chief of National Post (Matthew.

“As a nation. Finally.”) In the global information age. signed in was not very popular in Japan. and exercises also allow them to train together and quickly become interoperable when a crisis occurs. and barriers such as high tariffs and distribution costs. but its interminable committees. such sharing not only enhances the ability of others to cooperate with us but also increases their inclination to do so. soft power has become a key strategic resource for the American Empire. an associate professor of communication at DePaul University.”36 Fitzpatrick points out that we must first educate ourselves about other countries before we attempt to change their views. US Army Developmental Test Command [Michael J. Once that happened.CHKP 7Wk. Power flows from that attraction. America has emerged as an undisputed imperial power whose soft-power umbrella overarches the entire world. She also warns against the dangers of “diplomatic chaos”—the confusion experienced by foreign citizens when U. but the reach of American soft power is indisputably global.S. In the post-Cold War era. The Means to Success in World Politics. polls show that it became more attractive to the Japanese public. Says Fitzpatrick: “[It’s] no wonder foreign citizens get confused about what this country really stands for. and intensity of cultural globalization. “Why We Need to Reestablish the USIA. Soft power key to hard power ZWIEBEL 06 Director of Range Infrastructure and Investments. policies and goals shift each time a new president is p. Obama Elections Impacts. NATO. The global transmission of American soft power is virtually simultaneous thanks to communications technologies such as satellites and the Internet. For example.”37 38 . Japanese politicians began to build it into their approaches to foreign policy.Soft Power key to US Hegemony Softpower can sustain US leadership FRASER 03 doctorate in political science from Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris. as the RAND Corporation’s John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt argue. “Soft Power. In the Japan case. so that other countries are not obliged continually to reexamine their options in an atmosphere of uncertain coalitions.18 As we share intelligence and capabilities with others. but such strengths ultimately will not matter if we fail to capture the minds and hearts of people around the world with the enduring story of freedom and democracy. A traditional realpolitik mind-set makes it difficult to share with others. The precise effects of American soft power. “Weapons of Mass Distraction: Soft Power and American Empire”). we will benefit if we are able to attract others into institutional alliances and eschew weakening those we have already created. the global extension of American soft power was never strictly a trade issue. for example.S. broad acceptance of the U. but from strong sharing. if the United States is an attractive source of security and reassurance.Shared. http://usacac. velocity. The United States benefits when it is regarded as a constant and trusted source of attraction. “we may have the mightiest military and the most sophisticated technology. Soft Power key to Hard Power & Coalitions Nye 2004 (Joseph. 32. initially the U. we develop common outlooks and approaches that improve our ability to deal with the new challenges. other countries will set their expectations in directions that are conducive to our interests. has addressed the ways soft power enhances other instruments of national power. and reactions it provokes. Foreign cultures are no longer protected by the ramparts of time. Fitzpatrick.-Japan security treaty.”17 Popularity can contribute to stability. First. We cannot afford that. especially Communism. former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Dean of Harvard University's John F. Dismissing the importance of attraction as merely ephemeral popularity ignores key insights from new theories of leadership as well as the new realities of the information age. power in the global information age will come not just from strong defenses. Its legitimacy is acknowledged in liberal democracies that share cultural values and strategic interests with America. it must be considered when developing foreign policy.” Military Review. The global ubiquity of American soft power has made it more difficult to resist in regions where elites are hostile to liberal democracy and free-market capitalism. JRs. Rather than having to put together pickup coalitions of the willing for each new game. American soft power is historically unprecedented due to the scope. not only aggregates the capabilities of advanced nations.pdf] Kathy former Editor-in-Chief of National Post (Matthew. but over the decades.leavenworth. and meets resistance in regions where those values are not shared. however. UM 08 MNDI Elections. while American soft power was deployed throughout the 20th century to promote the national interests of the United States. She too recognizes that for public diplomacy to be effective.S. by the Japanese public “contributed to the maintenance of US hegemony” and “served as political constraints compelling the ruling elites to continue cooperation with the United States. procedures. Zwiebel. Kennedy School of Government. . Few corners of the world have not been touched by its influence. Second. as economic interests were invariably linked with an ideological mission to disseminate American values in the face of geopolitical threats. space. the attractiveness of the United States will be crucial to our ability to achieve the outcomes we want.” she argues. As for alliances. But in the information age. can he debated.

but it hints at the perils that the absence of a dominant power. For America there is no longer a choice: if socially disagreeable. and Israel. "If the logic of American empire is unappealing. has been the fate of many other nations for centuries. p. Japan. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. Second. even revolutionary in its subversive impact sovereignty-based international politics. the Far East. threats of regional hegemony by renegade states. warming. the United States would almost certainly be drawn back into these areas. withdrawal would without doubt plunge the world almost immediately into a politically chaotic crisis. . enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. Obama Elections Impacts. Vol. professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. and risk to oil supplies are all readily conceivable. but for that of. and the Persian Gulf? Any such U. and Taiwan would have strong motivation to acquire nuclear weapons . Instability and regional competition could also escalate.S. JRs. Syria.e. 53-54) Withdrawal from foreign commitments might seem to be a means of evading hostility toward the United States.S. competition and even military rivalry between France and Germany) of the kind that some realist scholars of international relations have predicted. global . 21 elsewhere the dangers could increase. At the same time. Total security and total defense in the age of globalization are not attainable. p. Niall Ferguson has added that those who dislike American predominance ought to bear in mind that the alternative may not be a world of competing great powers.democracy. U.> Decline in hegemony will cause great power wars and nuclear exchange Lieber 05. Defense Analyst at RAND (Zalmay.S. but also in Southeast Asia involving Vietnam. to cope with a humanitarian catastrophe. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -. 'louth Korea. First." Similarly. Although Europe would almost certainly not see the return to competitive balancing among regional powers (i.S. national interests. Based on past experience. of endemic plunder and pillage in the world’s forgotten regions.US Hegemony Good Impacts Leadership prevents global nuclear exchange Khalilzad 95. RETHINKING GRAND STRATEGY. UM 08 MNDI Elections. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. "Losing the Moment? The United States and the World After the Cold War" The Washington Quarterly. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. Risks in the Middle East would be likely to increase. Ferguson's warning may be hyperbolic. but the consequences would almost certainly be harmful both to regional stability and to U. The real issue is: with how much insecurity can America live while promoting its interests in an increasingly interactive. including nuclear weapons.CHKP 7Wk. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. unilaterally protective of its own security while sustaining international stability not only for its own benefit. and poverty. and the rule of law. In Asia. 17) The notion of total national security is now a myth. Congress were to mandate the prompt retraction of U. there would be a pell-mell rush by some to rearm but also to reach a special arrangement with Russia. 18. Thailand. 2. but one with no hegemon at all.. America is the world- transforming society. such as nuclear proliferation. In reflecting on the security implications of this new reality. 84) <Under the third option."'' Loss of U.S. Iran would become dominant and would intimidate the adjoining Arab states. eventually involving the use of weapons of mass destruction plus human suffering on a vast scale. The American Era: Power and Strategy for the 21st Century. policymakers to concentrate on the more traditional U. hegemony would lead to political chaos and nuclear war Brzezinski 04. and possibly the Philippines. No. America traditional power.S. not only between India and Pakistan. "apolarity. In the Far East. a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In the Persian Gulf area. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. Despite the new realities of global interdependence and the mounting preoccupation of the international community with such new global issues as ecology. its insecurity has to be politically manageable. Pg. Saudi Arabia.the international community as a whole. it is not at all clear that the alternatives are that much more attractive.which they have the technological capacity to do quite quickly. with regional competition among the major countries of the Gulf region (Iran. THE CHOICE: GLOBAL DOMINATION OR GLOBAL LEADERSHIP. role as the linchpin of global stability. while uncomfortable. AIDS." could bring "an anarchic new Dark Age of wailing empires and religious fanaticism. U. The latter task compels U. of economic stagnation and civilization's retreat into a few fortified enclaves. war would probably break out on the Korean Peninsula while Japan would undertake a crash program of rearmament. Finally. ( Zbigniew.S. including a global nuclear exchange. In Europe. Major regional wars. free markets. former national security adviser. the argument that American power is uniquely central to world peace is supported by a simple hypothetical test: What would happen if the U. Steven Peter Rosen has thus fittingly observed. Indonesia. 39 ..Shared. and low-level conflicts.S. this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. it is important to bear in mind the points made earlier. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. economic disruption. Professor of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown University (Robert J. military power from its three crucial foreign deployments—Europe. interdependent world? Insecurity. floods of refugees. whether to defend friendly states. and Iraq) as well as Egypt. or to prevent a hostile power from dominating an entire region. On balance.S.

leaving no Iranian nuclear program. "If it's Obama: no. they will certainly be used again.Shared. the long-term consequences are dire. would approve of military action against Iran.israelinsider. the U. while Obama wouldn’t approve it Shabtai Shavit. the Nuclear conflicts will occur within the next 10 to 20 years. The nuclear threshold will have been crossed by a nuclear superpower against a non-nuclear country. the attack will cause a violent reaction from” Anti-War.S.S. http://web. "If [Republican candidate John] McCain gets elected.CHKP 7Wk. and popular uprisings in Pakistan." Shavit told the paper. 2008. will succeed. and just as Saddam stopped them with chemical weapons. Mossad chief from 1989 to 1996. In a best-case scenario. http://www. resulting potentially in hundreds of thousands of casualties.htm Shavit added that a victory by Democratic nominee Barack Obama in the November presidential election would significantly lower the chances that the U. he could really easily make a decision to go for it. civilian or otherwise. My prediction is that he won't go for it.S. and a pro-Western government will emerge. 40 . JRs. Millions of "human wave" Iranian militias will storm into Iraq. Many more countries will rush to get their own nuclear weapons as a deterrent. will stop them with nuclear weapons. and Iran will be paralyzed and decide not to retaliate for fear of a vastly more devastating nuclear attack." Iran strike causes extinction HIRSCH 05 [Jorge. The Middle East will explode. “Can A Nuclear Strike on Iran Be Averted.antiwar. Let us remember that the destructive power of existing nuclear arsenals is approximately one million times that of the Hiroshima bomb. and a nuclear conflict could even lead to Russia's and Israel's involvement using nuclear weapons. Iran will no longer threaten Israel. even in the best-case scenario. With no taboo against the use of nuclear weapons. chemical.Iran Strike Bad 2NC Impact Scenario McCain victory would result in Iran strike. Obama Elections Impacts. and missile facilities in Iran with conventional and low-yield nuclear weapons in a lightning surprise attack. Physics Professor at UC San Diego. UM 08 MNDI Elections. However.S. June 29. and will escalate until much of the world is destroyed. and other countries with pro-Western governments could be overtaken by radical regimes. 11-21. a regime change will ensue. the U. enough to erase Earth's population many times over. p. Israeli Insider. Saudi Arabia. Pakistan already has nuclear weapons. will destroy all nuclear.php?articleid=8089] In a worst-case scenario. In the short term. at least not in his first term in the White House.

It is a good one because it allows America the advantage of its own great character. Today few Americans--left or right--would be comfortable with direct talks between our president and a character like Mr.php?q=node/4419 It remains to be seen whether the conservative victories in both Washington and Tehran can endure or whether they will soon be overturned. and other regional players into the negotiations on the future of Iraq.U. relations with Iran could well be transformed. Obama would normalize relations with Iran and offer them a grand bargain Patrick Seale. We fight unapologetically for dominance. for example. history has given his idea a rather bad reputation. the risk to American prestige would be enormous. lame-duck president. Obama Elections Impacts. Obama's idea was born of mushy idealism. http://www. Barack Obama (D-IL) seem to correspond to a sub-genre of the diplomatic. displaying his commitment to "diplomacy"--now the most glamorous word in the Democratic "antiwar" lexicon? Whatever Mr. which in addition to bringing Syria. One could imagine President Obama as a kind of superhero taking off in Air Force One for Tehran. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Their purpose is to preserve a favorable balance of power that is already in place in the world. A Wilsonian like Obama might use limited military power to prevent genocide. George W. Ahmadinejad. it could work far better as a hard-nosed moral brinkmanship. a war of national survival. We have fought wars in distant lands for rather abstract reasons. If Barack Obama were to win the Democratic nomination -. there to be greeted on the tarmac by the villainous Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. but not to promote broad strategic and economic U. Iran. 41 . if all our entreaties to peace were flouted. We tend to think of our wars as miniature versions of World War II. Were an American president (or a secretary of state for the less daring) to land in Tehran. Obama's candidacy.antiwar. only for his idea. We do not harry ourselves much over the style of warfare--whether the locals like us. Obama's idea clearly makes no sense in a context of national survival. Conversely. whether or not we are solicitous of our captive's religious beliefs or dietary strictures. Was this a serious foreign policy proposal or simply a campaign counterpunch? Hillary Clinton had already held up this idea as evidence of Mr. But perhaps it looks this way because we are viewing it through too narrow a conception of warfare. p. Wars of discipline are pre-emptive by definition. March 21. we sacrifice for But since then we have fought wars in which our national survival was not immediately.CHKP 7Wk. Obama will try to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict and reach out to Syria and Iran Leon Hadar. Obama seems primed to use U.and then the Presidency -. If we were snubbed." which some commentators have hoped for. but the reality of American selflessness. Wouldn't such talk only puff up extremist leaders and make America into a supplicant? On its face. We don't sacrifice blood and treasure for change. 2008. a Carter/Obama type of Wilsonian approach would probably predispose one to embracing and implementing the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. The mullahs would make us characters in a tale of their own grandeur. Neville Chamberlain springs to mind as a man who was famously seduced into the wishful thinking that seems central to the idea of talking to one's enemies. Wasn't he just pushing back. What would this sort of Wilsonian at the helm spell for U. a dialogue started and ambassadors exchanged. We fight as enforcers rather than as rebels or as patriots fighting for survival. I think of such wars as essentially wars of discipline. Mr.S. like World War II. In the meantime. Obama's idea seems little more than a far-left fantasy. Leading British writer on the Middle East. could lead to a new emphasis on resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict.campaigniran. internationalist Wilsonian perspective that is more dovish than the hawkish Wilsonian approach promoted by the neoconservatives.html? id=110010909] After a recent Democratic presidential debate. An Obama-style Wilsonian would be likely to reach out to Iran through international venues to resolve the nuclear situation. if war became inevitable. on lines that Admiral Fallon might approve. 2008. Agence Global. at stake. and there has been the feeling that these were essentially wars of choice: We could win or lose without jeopardizing our nation's survival. diplomatic and economic power to expand cooperation among members of the international community through the influence of interdependency and the force of globalization. They pre-empt menace to the peaceful world order. Nov 26. And so we never have. http://www. where the line between interrogation and torture might lie. Relations might at least be normalized.S. JRs. There is no feeling in society that we can afford to lose these wars. We fight these wars not to survive but--once a menace has arisen--to discipline the world back into a balance of power that best ensures peace. policy? Not unlike former President Jimmy Carter. p. Bush is a discredited. Either our high- risk diplomacy works or we have the license to fight to win. he would talk directly even to America's worst enemies. In the context of the Middle East.S. Former United Nations bureau chief for the Jerusalem Post and is currently the Washington correspondent for the Singapore Business Times.Obama key to resolving Iran issue Peacefully Only Obama's diplomacy can convince Iran to stop its nuclear program and save a Middle Eastern war Wall Street Journal 07 [Obama Is Right on Iran. This is not an argument for Mr. Yet moral authority would redound to us precisely for making ourselves vulnerable to this kind of exploitation. struggling to retain some measure of authority in his last months in office. we fight to achieve a favorable balance of power--one in which a peace is established that guarantees our sovereignty and survival. http://opinionjournal.Shared. If Mr. in wars of survival. and we determine to defeat our enemy by any means necessary. The world would witness not the stereotype of American bullying. then we would have the moral authority to fight as if for articleid=12518 The views of Sen. But Mr. we give our allies around the world every reason to respect us. or even remotely. courage and moral confidence. even if the improvement does not go so far as the "grand bargain. March 14. Obama's intent. Mr. It would have been absurd for President Roosevelt to fly to Berlin and talk to Hitler. Obama's naiveté. Barack Obama proclaimed that were he to become president. Obama's idea does make sense in the buildup to wars where survival is not at risk--wars that are more a matter of urgent choice than of absolute necessity. The Republican candidate has openly joked about bombing Tehran.msnbc. it depends on the threat that the United States of America faces.CHKP 7Wk. including Robert Kagan. McCain delivered in Los Angeles on March 26. It was just over a year ago. one man asked him about the 'real problem' in the Middle East. to escalate the crisis with Iran." More: "The concerns have emerged in the weeks since Mr. ' But some think McCain's joke may well become policy. John R. McCain laughed and . Obama Elections the tune of the Beach Boys' classic 'Barbara Ann' . McCain might be coming under increased influence from a competing camp. Among those on the list are several prominent neoconservatives.the so-called pragmatists.McCain would attack Iran McCain likely to strike Iran and trigger a fresh war in the Middle East The Observer.' said McCain. ' says Cliff Schecter.’ the senator from Arizona told his audience at Bridgewater Associates. June 22. McCain became his party’s presumptive nominee and began more formally assembling a list of foreign policy advisers.” 42 . MCCAIN: PREEMPTIVE STRIKE?. And while Barack Obama has said repeatedly that he won't take the threat of military action off the table. As McCain stood on the stage.S. Lexis Such a group of warlike counsellors has raised fears that McCain may strike Iran to stop its suspected quest for a nuclear weapon.’ The New York Times: "But now one component of the fractious Republican Party foreign policy establishment -. or have the capability to do so. you would have to act immediately in defense of this nation's national security interests. the Chicago Tribune writes. http://www. Conn. a global investment firm. expressing concern that Mr.Shared. McCain will strike Iran. must stand ready to defend against a hostile nation's attack: ‘If someone is about to launch a weapon that would devastate America. whose thinking dominated President Bush’s first term and played a pivotal role in building the case for war. the neoconservatives.” “He did say that the U. June 20. McCain would not rule out a pre-emptive military strike against a potential threat like Iran. an author who helped write much of the foreign policy speech that Mr. in the tiny borough of Murrells Inlet in South Carolina. "The presumptive Republican nominee was asked at one of his signature ‘town-hall' styled campaign appearances in] But the most important message is to the American political system. author of a new book. UM 08 MNDI Elections. because obviously. triggering a fresh war in the Middle East. noting that he would consult more closely and carefully with Congress -.msn.aspx] During a town hall in Connecticut yesterday. but certainly the leaders of Congress.. 'When are we going to send an airmail message to Tehran?' the man pleaded. as president. bomb bomb Iran. would reject ‘the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive war. even eagerness.‘not with every member of Congress.began to sing: 'Bomb bomb bomb. The Real McCain Obama will not strike Iran and McCain will The Nation 08 [Israel Endorses McCain Campaign.even his aides want it MSNBC 08 [April 10. and McCain faced a small crowd in one of his characteristic town hall meetings. 2008.’” McCain: “‘I don't think you could make a blanket statement about pre- emptive war. 'I think a McCain presidency would be very likely to strike Iran. if he. Bolton.” Others include the security analyst Max Boot and a former United Nations ambassador. http://firstread. he's challenged McCain over the Arizonan's refusal to talk to Iran. p. McCain has made a point of his willigness. in which he described himself as “a realistic idealist. some of whom have come to view the Iraq war or its execution as a mistake -.

“Strike Iran. JRs. at the very least.S. p. "Should war break out in the Middle East again. “WWIII OR Bust: Implications of a US Attack on Iran”. Muslim countries and the many others Bush has managed to piss off during his period in office. a nuclear escalation. Israel no longer needs U.. Russia and China have developed strong ties recently. Obama Elections Impacts.S.for whatever reason. Knowing Why Not to Bomb Iran is Half the Battle (forward. It can be assumed that watch Tehran fall to the Americans."(41) and Ezar Weissman.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration. nuclear targeting strategy. Each possesses nuclear once unthinkable except as a last resort. Watch Pakistan and Turkey Fall. particularly if it deploys and uses tactical nuclear weapons.> Attack on Iran risk Nuclear war with Russia and China Wokusch in ‘06 (Heather. if not for all out nuclear war. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. Centre for Research on Globalisation (CRG). In the words of Mark Gaffney. For some sane commentary on the matter.” http://www. Civilian casualties would be in the many thousands. THE US COULDN’T CONTAIN THE FALLOUT Stanton in 2006 [John .dissidentvoice. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use. With no country. [and] China. spy secrets.globalresearch. or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Does anyone in the USA think anymore? An attack on Iran would result in thousands of casualties for both US and Iranian military personnel.counterpunch. as the Iraqis did. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. would now be a strong probability. 2002." (44) IRAN STRIKES WOULD RESULT IN A NUCLEAR WORLD WAR III. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. including in Latin America.html] <That attitude is indicative of an intellectually bankrupt society.html Meanwhile.htm) Attacking Iran could also tip the scales towards a new geopolitical balance. or group of countries."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli ". His piece in Forward titled. the US government is no position to cope with the fallout. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing. China has China will not sit idly by and snapped up strategic energy contracts across the world.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and. Just last month. and arguably more 43 . one has to rely on the lucid commentary of Martin Van Crevald over in Israel. and even the threat of nuclear should be force-fed to supporters of an Iranian invasion.CHKP 7Wk. http://www. The ripple effect from such an action would cause a chain reaction of events that would spiral out of control.. March 3. Certainly. Russia snubbed Washington by announcing it would go ahead and honor a $700 million contract to arm Iran with surface-to-air missiles. Canada and Iran.Virginia-based writer specializing in political and national security matters – April 24. slated to guard Iran's nuclear facilities.. And after being burned when the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority invalidated Hussein-era oil deals. http://www. Seymour Hersh warns. both with each other and with Iran.Iran Strike Bad Impacts Middle East conflict will trigger a global nuclear war John Steinbach. February 20. Iran. most of whom are youngsters. capable of de-escalating such a conflict--save for Russia and China--a world war could ensue. one in which the US finds itself shut out by Russia. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U. complicity) is not reversed soon.Shared..

Bush crosses them at his nation's peril.CHKP 7Wk. each holds large reserves of US dollars which can be dumped in favor of euros. 44 . UM 08 MNDI Elections. threatening to the US. JRs.Shared.

com/leading-the-news/obama-in-the- drivers-seat-but-mccain-reads-the-map-2008-06-24. Obama may be ahead now. But both polls appear to be outliers.Uniqueness. In the Democratic primaries. On many core issues. Ohio. Most other polls have the party ID gap with a significantly smaller Democratic edge. UM 08 MNDI Elections.Shared. Bush in June and July. 20 to a President McCain. Obama will have so much money to spend he can microtarget millions of his supporters early and deliver absentee ballots – which are prone to abuse – to them.CHKP 7Wk. she said. but McCain has the key states under his record gas prices and the Iraq war. with the nonpartisan National Journal rating him the most liberal U. His record in office clearly leans left. which Bush won by 21 points but McCain presently leads by just 11. they will be." There is evidence that fall campaigns. New Mexico. it hadn’t happened in more than 100 years. In 1976. When asked this month by ABC News when he had ever broken with liberal orthodoxy and taken risks with his base – as Bill Clinton did on trade. In the fall. it isn't easy for Democrats to win 45 . and forcing debates over competing visions of foreign policy. while a significant increase in turnout among black voters allows him to compete — but not to win — in the South. John McCain (R-Ariz. and will Lose Obama will lose the election even tough he’s going to win the popular vote POLITICO 6/18 [Gored: Obama could win vote. Michigan. McCain Isn't 'Doomed'. JRs. culture and welfare – Mr.the race is close and should tip towards McCain. not likely. But the Democratic primary. Obama's ideas were rarely challenged. America wakes up on Jan. "Some 30% of voters say they could easily change their minds. but they should be worried. Michael Dukakis led George H. is still raw." says pollster Scott Rasmussen. Any polls are outliers. "This election is remarkably fluid with two nonincumbents running.wsj. One recent survey found only 53% of Republicans now approve of his performance. senator. Meanwhile. the 2004 map largely holds. Democrats had a 14-point advantage in Newsweek's sample. Here’s the scenario: Obama racks up huge margins among the increasingly affluent. which Bush won by 12 points but Rasmussen presently shows as a tossup. He is untested in foreign policy. Colorado and Virginia are offset by 21 new electoral votes for McCain in Michigan and New Hampshire — and despite a 2- or 3-point popular vote victory for Obama. and the size and scope of government. The McCain campaign reflects the candidate's impulsive nature and hasn't articulated a consistent reform agenda. That's an unusually low number. Sen. and a 17-point advantage in the Times poll. At a meeting of Obama voters I attended this week. Both surveys polled registered. He won by only five and a half points." she said.html] Sen. when voters were clearly looking for a reason to vote the incumbent party out of the White House. After all. http://online. http://news. McCain has an opening. He is most likely to win by engaging Mr. highly educated and liberal coastal states.html] Secure the Hillary Clinton vote. Obama’s 32 new electoral votes from Nevada. McCain wins solidly Republican states such Texas and Georgia by significantly smaller margins than Bush’s in 2004 and ekes out narrow victories in places such as North Carolina. One possible result: Even as the national mood moves left. and a third of independent voters aren't paying much attention yet.our evidence is predictive The Hill 6/24 [Obama in the driver’s seat but McCain reads the map. and nonvoters lean Democratic. This election reminds some of the 1980 race. Reagan finally convinced voters he was sensible and trustworthy. Gerald Ford was seen as a goner during the summer but rallied to finish only two points behind Jimmy Carter.) holds important advantages in the states that decided recent presidential elections. "Obama has a little more work to do. Tackling concerns about energy and food costs are key. Jimmy Carter kept even with Ronald Reagan well into October by painting him as risky and out of the mainstream. A dozen years later. Only McCain has the support of his base.W. only two-thirds of those end up casting ballots.S. 50% of voters favored a smaller government with fewer services while 45% wanted a bigger government with more services – the same percentage breakdown as in June 2004. a focused McCain campaign that clearly contrasts conservative and liberal approaches to the issues should have a good chance of winning. Obama Elections DA.daytondailynews. and wound up winning by double digits. despite the strong headwind Republicans face this November. The McCain campaign can't expect to win the election on the strength of their man's personal appeal or character. In last week's Washington Post poll. Normally. the country still leans right of center. voters. some bemoaned the fact that many of their friends backed him solely because of his cool "name brand" and vague message of change. Republicans shouldn't panic. in the home stretch. Obama had little to say. which tend to focus voters on big- picture issues. Then. and that’s key to the election Dayton Daily News 6/19 [Candidates have work to do for Ohio vote. but plugged-in observers from both parties see a distinct possibility of Barack Obama winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College — and with it the presidency — to John McCain. Mr. http://thehill. Even Bob Dole closed a 12-point Labor Day gap to only eight points by November 1996. If that history is a guide. President Bush's job rating has collapsed. lose election. with Republicans making up only 22% of respondents. Second. He lost by eight points in the fall.Obama doesn’t. http://www.html? mod=googlenews_wsj] Some Democrats claim new polls by Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times showing Sen. Even so.he will beat Obama on core issues Wall Street Journal 6/27 [No. Obama on the issues. Duffy said that McCain has just about wrapped up securing the conservative base that he needs to win the election. Here Mr. Bill Clinton had a 10-point lead around Labor Day. Barack Obama is roughly in the same position as Reagan was back then. McCain trailing by 15 points in each seal the deal on an Obama presidency. Other polls show the race to be] Until 2000. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire show promise for Republicans hoping to hold the White House amid a housing crisis. In 1992. usually help Republicans.

1% or more of the popular vote. 46 . JRs. Since FDR's last victory in 1944.Shared. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Both of Bill Clinton's victories were aided by Ross Perot's presence on the ballot. only one Democrat – Lyndon Johnson in 1964 – has won 50. in a two-person race for president.CHKP 7Wk.

. McCain. Donatelli said. noting Obama leads of varying sizes in a number of recent surveys. A fundraiser at Ethel Kennedy's Hickory Hill estate in Virginia earlier this week netted close to $6 million. Obama Elections DA. And since the country's top political and security officials are careful not to wade into domestic US politics. CBS. Donatelli predicted blue-collar voters would tilt the election to Mr. McCain.CHKP 7Wk. Clinton in the drawn-out primary battle.> US Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama's polling numbers are going up among Jewish voters. entered June with almost as much money as the presumptive Democratic nominee. McCain garnered 32% of the Jewish support. religion and nativism. McCain was favored in Israel over Obama by 43% to 20%." McCain is winning Jewish support – Jewish voters are key to swing states The Jerusalem Post. Obama lost primaries to Mrs. Miller. Clinton." he said. and a May 31 event in New York City headlined by former Vice President Al Gore brought in around $1 million more. The 9% lead for McCain among Israeli Jews stands in sharp contrast to a May Gallup poll of American Jewish preferences in which Obama enjoyed a whopping 29% lead among Jewish voters.” June 23. "We are a conservative party. Obama. Mr. That poll. 46.6 million as of May 31." Mr.washtimes. largely a result of his failure to connect with working- class whites. According to the poll. had $31. Polls are inaccurate – empirically proven with Bush and over-surveyed with Democrats US NEWS. but McCain still stronger. The party committees act as shadow campaigns. Clinton this week is expected to campaign alongside Mr. which is significantly better than what Republican presidential candidates traditionally get among US Jews. there is a great deal of interest these days in whom Israelis want to win the election. Mr. Obama got in hot water with blue-collar America by complaining at a private April fund-raiser in San Francisco that small-town voters were not supporting him because they are "bitter" and "cling" to guns. Money isn’t an issue for McCain – He has as much as Obama Jonathan D. the presumptive Republican nominee. in which he toned down his anti-NAFTA comments. The issue came up again over the weekend in an interview with Fortune magazine. often turned off white working- class voters during the grueling primary against Sen.A.a promise aimed at Rust Belt voters convinced the trade deal killed jobs.” June 21. Helped by Republican Party. Pennsylvania. "That is a staple of our campaign from the very beginning.jpost. Ohio and Nevada. Obama's campaign rhetoric threatening to scuttle the North American Free Trade Agreement . he would "open up a dialogue" with Canada and Mexico. “McCain. Obama for the first time in support of his candidacy. saying it was "nothing more than retreating behind protectionist walls. working to help him with key blocs that mostly backed Mrs. polls such as these could have significance. especially in key battleground states such as Florida. Hillary Rodham Clinton. it is no guarantee of success in November. was taken before Hillary Clinton bowed out of the race.3 million for Obama. “Obama rises among Israeli Jews. That survey was also taken before Clinton dropped out of the race. some 37% of the respondents said they either had no preference or did not> The Obama campaign. Asked whom they "prefer to be elected as president" of the US. had more money to spend than Obama during the three months leading up to the national party conventions. which declined repeated requests for comment on the Republican strategy. 2008 The CBS Evening News reported that while Barack Obama has gotten "quite a bounce" in the polls following his primary win.. 2008 < at least in Israel. the latter two by lopsided margins. Obama's NAFTA stance Friday in Ottawa. When combined with the Republican National Committee's bank balance. and we want to make sure our strongest supporters are going to be there. Strategy & Communications poll published in The Jerusalem Post on May 28. That is the key finding of a survey that appears Friday in Makor Rishon and was carried out by the Mutagim polling group. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Among American Jewish voters for whom Israel is an important election issue.John McCain. In a Keevoon Research. some 36 percent of Israelis favor Republican presidential hopeful John McCain. Has More Money Than Obama. But Mr.” June 26. McCain in the battlegrounds of Ohio and Pennsylvania and in states such as Kentucky and West Virginia . The outreach to blue-collar voters and other traditionally Democratic groups will not come at the expense of energizing the party base.5 million to just under $4 million for the Democrats.Uniqueness. “GOP courting blue-collar vote. concentrating their efforts on backing the presidential candidates. who was outraised by a 2-1 margin by Barack Obama during the presidential primaries. New York Democrat. Jewish voters are likely to be critical in the campaign.Obama will Lose Blue-Collar voters are going to tilt the election for McCain in swing states S. while 27% support Obama. Federal Election Commission records show. “Obama Bounce In Polls May Not Herald Easy Win. JRs. compared with $33. and Democratic fundraisers have turned their attention to filling the DNC's coffers now that the Illinois senator has secured the party's pid=20601087&sid=askDEx2Ryy8I&refer=home> June 21 (Bloomberg) -. 2008 <http://www. Salant and Kristin Jensen. The RNC had $53. 2008 <http://www. McCain blasted Mr." he said. looks at the 47 . which must turn out in large numbers to win in what is expected to be a very close election.all places where Mr. His credibility with working-class voters also was strained in February by reports that a top aide secretly told Canadian officials to ignore Mr.” Jun 26. saying that "sometimes during campaigns the rhetoric gets overheated and amplified" and that rather than opt out of NAFTA. It is devoting substantial recourses to ensure evangelical and conservative groups are "engaged and comfortable with our campaign strategy. an Arizona senator. Mrs. Even in that poll.

And in mid-June of 1992. with both Obama and McCain polling 45%.Shared.CHKP 7Wk. the Washington Post reports that a memo from GOP pollsters yesterday took issue with the LA Times/Bloomberg poll showing Obama topping John McCain 49%-37%.600 registered voter from June 22-24. Obama Now Tied In Gallup Tracking The newest Gallup daily presidential tracking poll shows the presidential race now tied. JRs. UM 08 MNDI Elections. compared to 22% of Republicans. Clinton recovered. Bill Clinton trailed both President Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot. The poll surveyed 2. W. Democrat Michael Dukakis was 17 points ahead of Vice President George H. historical record and says. Bush. Obama had been holding a 2-4 point lead for the previous week. saying it over-surveyed Democrats (they were 39% of those polled. Bush won comfortably." On another front. 48 . McCain. "Back in July of 1988.) The LAT defended their polling on their "Top of the Ticket " political blog yesterday.

down to 44 percent. “The Wild Differences in Polls. also showed a tie. Gallup's June 22-24 average. The margin of error is +/. and when voters' attention may be diverted elsewhere unless and until a major news event occurs with the potential to disrupt the structure of the the third straight day.CHKP 7Wk. Explained. June 24-26. Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied in national registered voter preferences for the fall election. if Ralph Nader and Bob Barr were included in the mix. 2008 <http://www. The Rasmussen daily tracking poll in the same period of time has shown a 3-7 point gap between the two candidates. From a broader perspective.) .cfm?docID=news-000002907401&parm1=1&cpage=1> If you’ve been watching Presidential preference polls over the past week.cqpolitics. Why the difference? Were the Newsweek and L. For the second straight day.” June 27. there has been little major change in the race for the entire month. and a Newsweek poll had Obama leading by 15 points. released on Wednesday. 49 . A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll showed Obama with a 12 point lead over but with each candidate receiving 45% of the vote. each now with 44% of the vote.A. “Obama. and is unchanged from yesterday. Obama Elections DA. Gallup’s daily tracking poll Thursday has John McCain and Barack Obama tied. NJ -. This relative stability is not unexpected in the summer months when no actual voting is taking place.Uniqueness. Today's report is based on the average of the latest three nights of interviewing. McCain Still Tied at 44%.Frank Newport McCain and Obama are tied – there’s only a tiny point gap between candidates Andrew Satter.2 percentage points. UM 08 MNDI Elections. 2008 <http://www. Both candidates dropped a point from yesterday’s tracking poll. click here. (To view the complete trend since March 7. you might feel a bit whipsawed. Neither of the daily tracking polls square with two polls from that show Barack Obama holding a stunning double-digit lead. with Obama either tying McCain or leading the race by a slim margin throughout June. JRs.Shared. Times biased in favor of Obama? Do the Rasmussen and Gallup pollsters favor McCain? Or maybe the public is wildly changing its views.aspx> PRINCETON.” June 27.Obama tied with McCain Obama and McCain are tied – no major change Gallup.

nytimes. was that he was not President Bush or Vice President Dick Cheney. McCain’s campaign. significant. Mr. “Sometimes it’s brought him into conflict with members of his party and with the president.” Mr. 2008. McCain. McCain.” McCain distancing himself from Bush over environmental issues New York Times. Bush. Mr. http://www. 25 June 2008 <http://www. rain-drenched foothills of the Cascade Mountains and asserting that in the effort to stem climate change. McCain actively trying to separate his environmental stance from Bush’s in status quo New York Times June 17. MARK PRESTON. who dismissed conservation as a “personal virtue” in 2001. ''There is a longstanding.” Mr. p. significant. McCain said the next president would have to break with the policies of the current and past administrations to free the United States from its dependence on foreign oil. Senator John McCain sought to straddle the divide between environmentalists and the energy industry on Tuesday as he called for conservation along with more refineries. McCain’s closest advisers." The New York Times 17 June 2008. “Conservation serves a critical national goal. McCain. CNN Political Editor. one of Mr. McCain distancing himself from Bush on numerous important issues New York Times. it's been moved to a private residence and is now closed to the media. Mr. Mr. and Mr. Bumiller.'' Mr. 2008. McCain said.'' He added. http://www.nytimes. is deeply unpopular. “John McCain stood up to the president and sounded the alarm on global warming five years ago. May 27. McCain distancing himself from Bush’s environmental policies The New York Times. McCain said last month.Shared. “In the face of climate change and other serious challenges. Instead. McCain’s central message. JRs. taking a walk in the cold. in a sign of how $4-a-gallon gas has made energy a central issue in the 2008 campaign.html? _r=3&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print>. So there will only be brief pictures of McCain and the president on the media. “In the last 10 years. the presumptive Republican presidential McCain implicitly criticized he has a realistic plan that will curb greenhouse gas emissions.html? pagewanted=1& Mr. 2008.Popular Bush Initiative doesn’t cause McCain Victory McCain can’t win presidential election on Bush’s coattails Mark Preston. June 17. whom the president endorsed at the White House in McCain for what they called his flip-flopping and capitulation to the oil industry. CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: If John McCain is to win in November. has been sprinting away from him this week. Bush. it's not going to be on a Bush coattail.'' At an outdoor news conference in the Cedar River Watershed east of Seattle. deep. May 14. June 17.” In a speech to oil industry executives and business and community leaders in Houston. Obama Elections DA. UM 08 MNDI Elections. more nuclear power plants and lifting a ban on oil exploration off the nation’s coasts. McCain was on his second day of a trip to the Pacific Northwest. Mr. So there will only be brief pictures of McCain and the president on airport tarmac. Elizabeth.CHKP 7Wk.Links. McCain and the unpopular Mr. Obama swiftly pointed out that Mr. who has a mixed record on the environment in the Senate — he has missed votes on toughening fuel economy standards and has opposed tax breaks meant to encourage alternative energy — has nonetheless tried to highlight what he considers his stark environmental divide with Mr. Bush rather than the similarities. he’s been an independent voice for what he thinks is in his country’s best interest. deep. The Democrats know that. and Jeff Zeleny. p. to promote his plan to slow global warming and appeal to the region's many independent voters who view the environment as an election issue of critical concern. But Mr. declared that ''the president and I have disagreed on this issue for many years -- it isn't a recent disagreement.nytimes. Mr. CNN.html? pagewanted=1& On balance.” Throughout the day.” said the narrator in a television commercial released on Tuesday by Mr. who questioned the scientific basis for global warming in his first term. "McCain Seeks to Break with Bush on Environment. p. p. strong difference on this issue between myself and the administration. Lexis Senator John McCain intensified his criticism of President Bush and the administration's environmental polices on Tuesday. Cheney. Obama and the Democratic National Committee relentlessly mocked Mr. 50 . HENRY: Democrats already used chummy photos for ads charging a McCain victory will amount to a third Bush term. “There is a longstanding. strong difference on this issue between myself and the administration. energy conservation is no longer just a moral luxury or a personal virtue. the McCain campaign has sought to emphasize the differences between Mr. 2008. Lexis While the event was initially planned to be open to cameras at the Phoenix Convention Center. and that he would not pursue the environmental policies of his two fellow Republicans in the unpopular administration. ''America can lead and not obstruct. derided by Senator Barack Obama in a day of political attacks and counterattacks by the two campaigns. McCain had supported the ban on offshore oil exploration during his first run for the presidency in 2000. “Today. a potential swing region in the November election.” said Mark Salter.

This month. Plan wouldn’t be a Win for Bush/McCain Bush won’t get credit – he threatened to veto energy bills before Cathy Cash. “Climate change: US politics: Bush is left isolated as America turns green. not too subtly. The House did not include CAFE standards but managed to insert an RPS for electric utilities of 15% by 2020 and a $16 billion package of tax credits. It acknowledges that climate change is a problem. But with Democrats in control of Congress for the first time in his presidency. not Congress.” July 2. But as recently as last week evidence emerged of White House officials tampering with reports from government scientists that do not toe the administration's line on climate change. lexis The proposed legislation would set a target of a 15% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. UM 08 MNDI Elections. GUARDIAN INTERNATIONAL PAGES. Congress.CHKP 7Wk. 2007 Friday. November 2. 51 . has said she wants to shepherd the bill through committee before the start of the Bali conference on climate change in early December. Nancy Pelosi. Bodman. state governments such as California. the director of climate change for NET. Bush is being isolated – he’s the only one left that doesn’t approve of alternative energy Suzanne Goldenberg. Bush has used the veto just once . who chairs the committee. In Congress. It calls for capping emissions at 2005 levels by 2012 and provides for a market-based system for trading emissions permits. said he's ``hopeful'' Congress will produce an energy package the president can sign. 26. 2007. 2007. The House speaker. he was replaced by Barbara Boxer. JRs. "The most likely scenario is that the president would veto the bill given his record but given the rapid shift in public opinion on this issue. It was backed by senators from coal-producing states in what campaigners saw as growing public support for action against global warming. but the change in the Senate illustrates how the rest of America has moved on. should set fuel economy standards. Both would shift billions in tax breaks from the oil industry to alternative and renewable energy development ? a tactic that attracted a veto threat from the Bush administration. The administration dislikes Senate-passed provisions to penalize oil companies for price gouging and to take antitrust action against the international oil cartel." Bush wouldn’t get credit . environmental campaigners believe that is likely.Links. and mayors have embarked on a course that could bring America into step with the international community on climate change. The bill is expected to be put to a vote of the full committee this month. a Democratic senator from California who considers global warming "a potential crisis of a magnitude we have never seen". lexis On the energy bill front. It enjoys broad support from Republicans and Democrats.Final Edition. a Democrat from California. "I doubt that the president is going to suddenly embrace a set of policies he rejected for six years. And while automakers have surrendered the position that regulators. I think there is a glimmer of hope. a reversal of its earlier insistence that the science was inconclusive.He vetoes to protects the oil company instead of the environment Automotive News. an independent senator from Connecticut. The legislation was introduced by a Republican. Asked by Automotive News for his reaction to the bill. 455 words. James Inhofe. But he has to deal with the reality that the Congress is making this one of the highest priorities for this country." said Angela Anderson.Aff. Other legislation that would set a higher standard for fuel efficiency in cars is also in the works. told the Boston Globe recently. who famously declared "global warming is a hoax". The Senate's $28 billion tax package was sidelined. Suzanne Goldenberg. with Democrats now in control of both chambers. compared with the 20% reduction that is the goal in the EU. Washington. Bush this year has killed two more measures and is angling to shoot down some others. lexis It appears President Bush has his little-used veto pen aimed at the Senate's recently passed energy bill and its auto fuel economy provisions. Pg. and remains personally opposed to mandatory caps on carbon gases. lexis For years. “Energy chief: Bush would veto Senate's bill. The administration has softened its language in recent months. the separate House and Senate bills include provisions that large numbers in the other chamber would not be expected to support: the Senate rejected a renewable portfolio standard for electric utilities but tacked on corporate average fuel economy standard of 35 miles per gallon for passenger vehicles in 2020. Until this year.” January 27. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman put the Senate energy bill on the list last week. Bush’s history prevents the public from crediting him The Guardian (London) . Barbara Boxer. dates unknown.the fewest of any president since the brief administration of the assassinated James Garfield 126 years ago. Democrats and Republicans have introduced five new bills on climate change so far this month." Ed Markey. It remains unclear how George Bush would react to any legislation emerging from the Democratically controlled Congress that imposes mandatory controls on emissions. and Joe Lieberman. George Bush may have two years to run on his presidency. the new Democratic chair of the House energy committee. “Energy and climate bills still in tough stages of House. which would seek to reduce emissions by 60-80% below 1990 levels by the middle of the century. "The president really has to move or this issue will have moved right past him.Shared. The House has yet to act.” October 1. and support for measures to tackle global warming is growing among large US corporations. Obama Elections DA. the most powerful voice in the US Senate on the environment was a conservative Republican from Oklahoma. the administration is holding on to that belief. Bodman said the bill also is flawed because it would require cars and trucks to average 35 mpg by 2020 instead of letting executive branch ``experts'' set numbers. John Warner of Virginia. has said she wants to see new laws on climate change by July 4 and. big business. The bill is expected to move swiftly through the legislative process. and compared warnings about climate change to Nazi propaganda. Senate diplomacy. 2007.

The House last night also passed. Washington Post Staff Writer. however. It also would provide grants for studies to promote ethanol pipelines. 2008. "lead to less domestic oil and gas production.Aff. LAWANDREG. which passed 241 to 172.Shared. The administration's main gripe is that most of the funding for the $18 billion measure comes from eliminating a tax break for five mega oil companies. Pg. wind or other renewable energy sources. lexis Bush also has threatened to veto legislation the House passed in February to extend and expand tax incentives for renewable electricity. A09. totaling nearly $16 billion. natural gas and coal. installation of pumps for 85 percent ethanol fuel at gas stations and production of cellulosic ethanol. lexis The House yesterday passed a far-reaching package of energy legislation that would promote conservation and the use of renewable resources at the expense of the country's oil and gas interests. the White House warned in a policy statement Friday that President Bush would veto the measure if approved. JRs. by Donna Block in Washington. as well as for plug-in hybrid cars.Links. National Security. solar and geothermal power and away from producing energy from oil. along with a broad energy package passed earlier by the House. It calls for more energy efficiency measures in the Capitol building. 858 words. he’s the protector of the oil companies Waste News. energy and fuel. It would be the first such requirement to apply to all the states. The bill. "is a targeted tax increase that puts U. 05. March 17. buildings and power grids. 221 to 189. Bush isn’t perceived as environmentally friendly. and higher and higher taxes. A-SECTION. The Democrats also won passage of a provision that would require that 15 percent of electricity from private utilities come from solar. The letter said President Bush's senior advisers would recommend that he veto the bills. buildings and appliances. UM 08 MNDI Elections. NEWS. 52 . would require more energy efficiency in appliances." The statement also said that repealing the manufacturing tax deduction for only the oil and gas industry. because it would.CHKP 7Wk. Sholnn Freeman. the Bush administration said Friday that the two House measures would result in less domestic oil and gas production. lexis As the bill neared a vote. 368 Wörter. Plan wouldn’t be a Win for Bush/McCain Bush wouldn’t get the credit – He protects the oil company too much The Washington Post. 2007 Sunday. higher energy costs. August 5. Pg. Obama Elections DA. 2007 Tuesday. Elizabeth McGowan. and Consumer Protection Act. that targets the oil and gas industry. which proponents of the bill say would reduce carbon dioxide emissions and electricity use. 732 words. and energy efficient homes. a companion tax package. August 7.S. Bush prioritizes economy over environment – he’ll never get credit from an environmentalist plan Daily Deal/The Deal. and the related tax title would result in new federal incentives for wind. Senators could broach the bill this month if they can find a 60th vote to avoid a filibuster. In a letter to Congress." The bill. the New Direction for Energy Independence. industries at a disadvantage to their foreign competitors.

that may be at least one reason the candidates are not emphasizing climate and energy in their stump speeches. Another poll from the Pew Research Center reported climate change ranking 20th out of 23 choices .. D. might want. "Renewable Energy as a Mainstream Product Choice. global warming ranked far below issues such as the Iraq War. when asked specifically about their priorities for Congress and the President. February 2. a longtime Coloradoan. Energy and environment issues not yet major presidential campaign issues Environment & Energy Daily. and James Woolsey. a Washington lobbyist for coal companies.Links. Frank Maisano. many consumers care more about what the product can give them. In a 2007 analysis of 21 opinion polls on American attitudes toward climate change and renewable energy.). That's because many consumers see renewable energy as a major change in lifestyle. During today's E&ETV Event Coverage. 25 June 2008 <http://www. said he is not surprised that energy and environment has not commanded the kind of attention that least the political reporters . education and immigration. political director for the League of Conservation Voters. Todd Stern.but when it comes down to real action it has to be easily accessible.renewableenergyworld. environmental adviser for Sen. with their understandably nuanced view of the subject. Stephen. Yale Climate Media Forum. not take away. Until the industry better addresses concerns about cost. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Obama Elections DA." said Massaro. it will simply be easier for Americans not to buy clean energy." Renewable Energy>. coupled with the complexity of the issues.are still giving those issues little attention so far in the campaign. energy and environment issues have yet to make a splash in stump speeches and debates. 2008. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N." says Ron Pernick. 2008.).net/tv/transcript/775 As the three remaining presidential candidates head into the home stretch of primary season. Panelists include. Lacey. But when the time comes for action. p. climate and energy policies don't differentiate the candidates. and so people don't want to make complete tradeoffs. and climate policy. that they support clean energy. "In all likelihood. A growing body of opinion research shows that Americans are concerned about how consumption of dirty fossil energies is impacting the environment.eenews. Climate and energy policies receiving little attention in 2008 presidential election Joseph Davis. John McCain (R-Ariz. JRs. It may also help explain why the news media . p. implementation and funding of alternative energy. 2008. not an ordinary product choice.). adviser to Sen. Lexis Tony Massaro.C. Freelance writer specializing on environmental. http://www. said the fast-paced primary season. 24 Feb. That may point to one of the keys for marketing renewable energy to the general public: while efficiency and conservation are very important in the entire energy picture. environmental adviser to Sen.CHKP 7Wk.. American Environics found that there is "widespread agreement that global warming is occurring and that the government should take action to address the problem. Lacey. Jason Grumet. threatening national security and hindering long-term economic growth. natural resources and energy issues. 24 Feb. Barack Obama (D-Ill. co-founder and principal of Clean Edge. April 15. If>. compared to other issues. 2008.Energy/Environment not key Election Issues Voters less supportive of policies that cause them to change their lifestyles Renewable Energy World 08. p. reliability and ease of use. 53 . Americans rank climate change and renewable energy as comparatively unimportant priorities Renewable Energy World 08. Stephen. heath care. we are not going to see that level of specificity the people of the West want and deserve until we have the general election has made it difficult for candidates to discuss energy and the environment in much depth.Y. "Renewable Energy as a Mainstream Product Choice." However.htm The forum performances suggested that.. a clean tech research and publishing firm. http://www. "People will say that they support the environment. despite the fact that each candidate has vowed to make climate and energy top priorities. renewable energy and climate change are not yet true priorities for the everyday consumer. wind-power developers and refineries nationwide. 25 June 2008 <http://www.renewableenergyworld. group that advocates for pro-environment policies and candidates.Shared. April 17. the candidates' energy and environment advisers give their positions on the expansion of coal and nuclear. say analysts." Renewable Energy World. a Washington. 2008. Energy and environmental issues not being discussed in presidential election Salt Lake Tribune.

the http://www.pdf Understanding the American Response to Global Warming. Entertainment and Design conference in Monterey. They believe that global warming is a 54 .strategicstudiesinstitute." said the Salt Lake City resident.the economy. p. That might appear puzzling after a year in which the issue of global warming exploded into the public consciousness and gasoline prices have made sensible energy policies a pocketbook issue for Americans of all political stripes. and we have one. in another nationally representative survey. such as energy and climate change. http://www. Presidential election won’t be a referendum on climate change Greenwire.pdf If the polls can be trusted. If that remains the case.all come back to smart environmental policies. California--Former US vice president and renowned climate change fighter Al Gore said Saturday that the global warming crisis is getting short shrift in this year's presidential race. May. "As important as it is to change the light bulbs. "I don't think it's being discussed as much as it should Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Joseph Kelliher said the presidential election is not shaping up as a referendum on climate change. the environment has not been a hot topic in the presidential races up to this point. nearly at the bottom. Global warming was well below terrorism.php?article_id=122308 MONTEREY.24 Global warming low priority amongst American voters Dr. health care and energy . In order to solve the climate crisis we have to solve the democracy crisis. May 20. p. as a leading national priority as well.Links.inquirer. and ecosystems distant in time and space. "And the answers I have heard have been pretty vague. Americans rank climate change below many other issues in terms of importance Carolyn Pumphrey. CEO. etc. Today we would see the Iraq War. just as the environment as a broader issue is almost always at the bottom of these kinds of priority rankings. October 3. JRs. I asked Americans which issues they thought should be the top priority for Congress and the the public generally perceives climate change as a moderate risk that will primarily impact people. hasn't translated into it being a voting priority issue for Americans. it is more important to change the he said. http://www. the new president may steer clear of pushing domestic legislation right out of the gate. places. entrepreneurs. A 2006 Pew study found that about 41 percent of Americans think that global warming is a very serious threat.S. 2008. Global warming has been given minimal attention in presidential debates. the budget deficit. Global warming currently receiving minimal attention in presidential election race Al Gore. 2008.strategicstudiesinstitute. many others are dragging their feet. especially if his or her mandate is about the economy and other issues. Obama Elections DA. p. My research demonstrates that across the board." No. and Internet superstars.pdf In 2004. Climate change not a salient issue to most Americans Dr. climate change came in California. Anthony Leiserowitz. p. though. ALLIANCE FOR CLIMATE PROTECTION. Climate change not a voting priority issue for Americans CATHY ZOI. However. UM 08 MNDI Elections. the American public is gradually beginning to believe that climate change is not simply the figment of imagination of overexcited environmentalists. climate change legislation will not be a reality anytime soon. Lexis To p. http://www. I found—and this is consistent with many other surveys—that global warming was a relatively low priority. 2008. education. of course. p.strategicstudiesinstitute. Former Vice President of the United States and Nobel Peace Prize Recipient. largely because of people like Al Gore and Arnold Schwarzenegger. In part. celebrities. to call for activism to push climate change to the top of the candidates' political agendas. February 2.CHKP 7Wk. Anthony Leiserowitz. 2008. Director of the Yale Project on Climate Change and a Research Scientist at the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University.htm CATHY ZOI: We have a very high level of awareness in the United States now. March 2. not key Election Issues Environment not a hot topic on the presidential campaign trail Salt Lake Tribune. Recent polling over the last month out of 22 public policy issues that Americans were asked about. May. the nation's top electricity regulator and a prominent utility official both predicted that U. Director of the Yale Project on Climate Change and a Research Scientist at the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University. they rank it well below other issues as a national priority. That awareness. that has to do with the way Americans perceive the risks of global warming. Triangle Institute for Security Studies. but she is not hearing enough about environmental issues." Gore told an elite gathering of scientists. http://newsinfo. which have ironically been sponsored by "something with an Orwellian label" of Clean Coal. healthcare. Agence She has made a point of following the presidential primaries this Lexis At the same conference yesterday. Gore observed.Shared.23 While some corporations are trying to find ways to be more energy efficient. Gore used the stage at a prestigious 2008. p. and they are not willing to dip into their pockets to find a remedy. 2008. "We have to become incredibly active as citizens in our democracy." Gore took solace in the fact that leading Democratic contenders Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama along with the Republican Party's all-but-certain nominee John McCain are promising "leadership" regarding climate change. 2008. global warming. the big issues of our time .

greater threat to nonhuman nature than to human beings. in a nutshell. Yale Climate Media Forum." That.CHKP 7Wk. increased disease rates.htm In its analysis. "Toward the bottom of the list you've got global warming. Thus it is not a particularly salient issue to most people. the quality of drinking water. they believe that each of these impacts is more likely to occur globally than at the local level. and just 28 percent say there will be 'extreme' impact of global warming in 50 years if efforts to address the problem are not increased.—not Americans—and distant in time—not for another 50 to 100 years. They believe that water shortages. At the same time. only about 4 in 10 Americans believe that immediate. Importantly.Shared. toxic waste in soil. smog and other environmental insults that directly affect their health. Gallup wrote: "On the prominent global warming issue. drastic action is needed to deal with global warming. http://www." Cass JRs. January 31. Americans not very concerned about global warming Bruce Lieberman reported on science issues from 2002-2007 for the San Diego Union-Tribune. may explain why the climate change issue has not received sustained attention by reporters and editorial writers covering the presidential election. said Loren Cass. 2008. something that is going to affect other people far away—small island countries. or from the candidates themselves. p. Mass.yaleclimatemediaforum. 55 . Americans tend to think of climate change as a distant problem. and lower living standards. are only moderately likely. Gallup polls taken close to Earth Day since 1989 have consistently shown that people concerned about environmental issues are most worried about pollution in rivers. a professor of climate and environmental policy at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester. UM 08 MNDI Elections. etc. most Americans take it seriously as a problem. if ever. poor people in the tropics.

p. the climate issue is failing to consistently get the attention that scientists. Yale Climate Media Forum. with specialist reporters and beats being replaced by general assignment reporters as newsrooms downsize. Climate not a major election issue because the economy is overshadowing it Loren Cass. but it's not something you can talk about in the middle of a potential recession or in the middle of a war and expect people to respond to it. it's such a big challenge. a political scientist at the University of California at Santa Barbara and an expert on public opinion on energy and the environment. some political scientists say. 2008. p. http://www. James Baker. PCAP aims to help the next President forge an agenda to tackle the climate issue. NOAA administrator under President Clinton and an advisor to the Presidential Climate Action Project at the University of Colorado. But a warming climate is not about to go away.robbing the issue of urgency and immediacy that voters respond so powerfully to at the There are other reasons the climate issue has been given a pass by much of the media and the candidates. Yale Climate Media Forum. Professor of climate and environmental policy at the College of the Holy Cross. "The 'Let's lay out a big roadmap to the 21st century' kind of argument .or why they don't have any." said Eric Smith." Smith said. said that a big obstacle to covering the climate issue consistently and well lies within news organizations. Yale Climate Media Forum. and many of its worst effects are expected to develop over the next several decades .yaleclimatemediaforum. Climate issue falling in terms of importance in 2008 presidential election Bruce Lieberman reported on science issues from 2002-2007 for the San Diego Union-Tribune. 2008. JRs.Shared." said D. Corell said he has almost given up on any hope that the climate issue will become a leading issue in the 2008 campaign. January 31. 2008.or both. environmentalists.htm And it's especially difficult when people are worried about losing their homes or jobs . January 31. Cass. Obama Elections DA.htm So far in the 2008 election season. Schneider. "I think what you're seeing in the debates is a direct reflection of what the public is thinking. and it will likely be a dominant issue still in 2012 and beyond. "The economy is dominating everything Yale Climate Media Forum.htm Getting these climate issues and others on the front burner for candidates requires the national media to press the issue during the campaign.yaleclimatemediaforum.Environment/Climate not key Election Issues Climate issue won’t become dominant in 2008 presidential campaign Bruce Lieberman reported on science issues from 2002-2007 for the San Diego Union-Tribune.. 56 .. Becker calls global warming "the perfect problem" because it's hard to explain clearly. January 31. and many policy experts say it deserves.CHKP 7Wk. UM 08 MNDI Elections.Links. from Climate change won’t become leading issue in 2008 presidential election Bruce Lieberman reported on science issues from 2002-2007 for the San Diego Union-Tribune. http://www. That's not easy given those reporters' own sense of the priority issues. p. from the College of the Holy Cross. 2008.yaleclimatemediaforum. p. asking tough questions that require the candidates to explain their proposed policies . http://www. said the American political system makes it very difficult for single issues to become dominant in a presidential campaign in America. http://www. he said. January 31. sounds good.

Sherrod Brown of Ohio. But before abandoning 7 [Sara Parker. many believe that it should only create the rules and standards and 57 . And since utilities could meet a portion of their "renewable" percentage with badly needed energy efficiency improvements. would that really be an unachievable goal—even for the coal-dependent South (which has argued that it lacks resources for wind power)? Southern states hate the RPS because they have no wind resources Fox News 7. currently the most available and cost-effective renewable energy alternative to carbon-based or nuclear-powered electricity generation. the 2005 bill's renewable energy amendment. and Norm Coleman. a National RPS has been proposed 17 times since 1996 by various policymakers—but none of the bills passed into law at the federal level. The American people expect nothing less. 2007 http://www.00. 2007. conventional wisdom is that the RPS is the one energy measure the Senate can't possibly pass.usnews. solar." According to a recent United Press International article. an article published on RenewableEnergyAccess. the bill's taxes on the energy industry may have been a bigger deciding factor than renewable energy. like Landrieu from a big oil state.Links. who noted Bingaman's amendment is expected to be filibustered after being introduced.3 million customers in Alabama.” June 22. the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. First of all. Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard study notes that under the present system. Now. December 10. staff writer. in large part because of the scarcity of wind power. however.html ] Fast-forward to the present. and geothermal now total less than 3 percent of generation. Early last month. Sam Brownback of Kansas. No southern state or state bordering the deep South has approved an RPS. a Minnesota Republican. If the goal was scaled back from 15 percent to 10 percent—as it was in the 2005 bill—would that make a difference? It still would be a huge gain. And it was the loss of Republican votes that probably hurt the most. just enough to make a difference.renewableenergyworld. http://www. dirty sources of energy. Jeff Bingaman.foxnews. "The challenge will be overcoming the filibuster. doesn't count as a gain because his predecessor. While the government will be instrumental in establishing a National RPS." said Senator Bingaman addressing Congress on Monday. a bitter setback for New Mexico Democrat Jeff Bingaman. Florida and Mississippi. And indeed. http://www. reported that the utility Southern Company openly opposed a National RPS—and was spending huge sums of money lobbying against such legislation arguing that it would increase costs for it's 4. and the Senate's defeat of a broad energy bill that handily passed the House. For some of them. Lincoln Chafee. never had. who pushed aggressively for the so-called renewable portfolio standard — or RPS. which leaves ratepayers in other states with more stringent environmental safeguards picking up their ] "Undoubtedly. SUVs. fearing it would lead to increases in energy rates in their states as utilities would be forced to purchase renewable energy sources elsewhere and at marked-up rates. (The vote of the sixth Democrat who gained a GOP seat in "But I am confident that as long as we keep in mind our shared goal—to work together and produce legislation that makes meaningful progress on securing America's energy future—the Senate will rise to the occasion. RPS gained the vote of five key Democrats who defeated a Republican in the 2006 election: Claire McCaskill of Missouri. we will debate amendments that will bring out strong opinions. and Jim Webb of Virginia.Shared. However. a new study released yesterday by The Network for New Energy Choices reports that a National RPS would create a level playing field for states.Southern Republicans mounted an aggressive effort to block the federal RPS. is not coming solely from oil lobbyists as many in the American public might assume. especially over 13 years." said Rubens. nor did it need to gain. “National RPS to include Coal & Nuclear?” June solar. both from states that rank near the top in wind energy potential: Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Republican John Thune of South Dakota voted to advance this year's energy bill even though they had voted against RPS in 2005. RPS unpopular – it’s empirically divisive in Congress RenewableEnergyAccess. some states enjoy deflated electricity prices from cheap. and we will have some heated —yet honest—debates. "It's a bit of moving target. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania." Heavy opposition. Indeed. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. In addition. That baseline of support should have given RPS a fighting chance after the results of the 2006 election. 52 to 48. 53 to 42. UM 08 MNDI Elections.html ] Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said negotiations on a federal renewable energy standard failed to produce an agreement in time to incorporate a deal into the final energy bill. Jon Tester of Montana. had been a Republican supporter of RPS in 2005.) Add to those numbers two positive vote switches for RPS. when wind. the Senate should look closely at these six votes. It just won straight up. JRs. The League of Conservation Voters' 2005 score card has the details. Did support for wind and solar actually erode between the 2005 and 2007 votes on renewable energy? Well.RPS Unpopular RPS taxes on the energy industry are controversial and make it unpopular in the Congress US News & World Report 7 [“How the Senate Tide Turned Against Wind and Solar.CHKP 7Wk. Obama Elections DA. correspondent. [Major Garrett. “Senate Votes to Increase Fuel Economy Standards in Cars. 23 states have now passed individual RPS legislation indicating that both elected officials and the American public are recognizing the environmental and economic benefits of renewable energy. a New Mexico Democrat. sponsored by Sens. 2007. and Republicans Charles Grassley of Iowa. but the multi-billion dollar utility industry as well.285872. and John Ensign of Nevada (Ensign was recorded as not voting on the energy bill last week). Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island. losing six crucial votes of senators who had supported RPS in 2005: Democrats Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Evan Bayh of Indiana. But this year's energy bill fizzled. the vote counters believe the only way to revive the bill is to remove the ambition for 15 percent renewable energy nationwide by 2020.

said Rubens.CHKP 7Wk. From there. JRs. 58 . UM 08 MNDI Elections.Shared. it should let the market establish what technologies will be used to accomplish the goals set by the RPS. define what technologies qualify for renewable energy credits.

Paul. and so on.proxy. Nicholas D. in a word. they are." Christian Science Monitor 5 July 2007. by Bryan Caplan.'' he The cover portrays the electorate as a flock of sheep. but that's barely on the national agenda. Unless the poor get a break on this consumption tax. High gas prices make a carbon tax unpopular Dissent Mag 08. public ignorance of details. UM 08 MNDI Elections. No wonder then that Mr. 30 June 2008. Most credible proposals call for some kind of energy or carbon tax. for example. does a remarkably thorough job of insulting the American voter. (Polls show that two-thirds of Americans don't want to pay more at the pump. ''Democracies frequently adopt and maintain policies harmful for most people. "The Seven Myths of Energy docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4067318680&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4067318684&cisb=22_T 4067318683&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&selRCNodeID=37&no.) all related to economics. Roberts.proxy. and it would generate substantial revenues that could be used to fund research into alternatives. The first is a suspicion of market outcomes and a desire to control markets.lib. would be even less so with gasoline prices already so high. it will hit them harder than wealthier just as they don't prefer more slowly. higher fuel taxes.lib.wordpress.Shared. suspicious of market outcomes. "Voters Speak: Baaa!" The International Herald Tribune 31 July 2007. This book. 59 . of ''systematic error'' .umich. Such a tax would have two critical effects. 30 June 2008. especially with gas prices hovering around $3 a gallon. the time has come for tough love." Dissent Mag 26>. Obama Elections docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4067318680&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4067318684&cisb=22_T 4067318683&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&selRCNodeID=37&no. LexisNexis Academic.'' Caplan notes. of course. 30 June 2008 <http://dissentmag. irrationally distrust carbon tax International Herald Tribune 07.the power of special interests. ''This book develops an alternative story of how democracy fails.and vote accordingly. No wonder that no presidential candidate endorses it. raise the price of gasoline and home heating/cooling. And it would put the burden of generating the same level of federal revenues on consumers while reducing the tax burden on labor and capital (workers and employers). To be sure. "Al Gore's Inconvenient Tax. LexisNexis Academic. The most efficient way to address climate change would be a carbon tax that would build on the market mechanism. never popular with voters. ''The central idea is that voters are worse than ignorant. 2008.Carbon Tax Unpopular Carbon tax would raise price of gas – unpopular with two thirds of Americans Christian Science Moniter 07. an economist at George Mason University.lexisnexis.CHKP This "carbon tax" would. Gore waited until March to really push this extreme makeover of the US tax system aimed at achieving a rapid reduction in oil and coal use with a fee on greenhouse-gas emissions. as it has in Europe.Links.lexisnexis. irrational . http://www. Kristof. But Caplan argues that those accounts fall short. It would keep the cost of oil high and thus discourage demand. or tax credits and other incentives to invest in the new energy technologies.'' Caplan identifies four areas.where voters routinely prefer policies that are contrary to their interests. There are various explanations for this . http://www. Given America’s tectonic pace toward energy security.umich. JRs.

2. released yesterday. two news outlets that are hip-deep in the US mainstream. JRs. Wilson Research Strategies conducted the survey for the the National Center for Public Policy Research. Biofuels are becoming increasingly unpopular due to disastrous effects on the environment Chemical News & Intelligence. There is resistance from communities where water is scarce against ethanol plants being sited in their neighborhoods." Time said. looks less green than oil-derived gasoline. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Crop Prospects and Food Situation report. not promoting energy security. they're part of the problem". "Corn ethanol. published in October 2007. the annual average price of corn (US there have been protests about the price of corn or wheat in Yemen." the Time report said. US Gulf) has risen by 85%. which has been promoted by eco-activists and eco-investors as well as by President Bush as the fuel of the future.76/ton. Simon. “BIOFUELS: Critics ramp up campaign against ethanol”. concluding: "It turns out that the carbon lost when wilderness is razed overwhelms the gains from cleaner-burning fuels. surveyors said the renewable fuels standard would cause the ethanol industry to use about one-third of this year's corn crop -. Even cellulosic ethanol made from switch grass. these new challenging reports appeared in recent issues of Time magazine and The New York Times. Food prices are rising across the world.26/ton in 2007. 2008 WASHINGTON (ICIS news)--Recent US news reports have challenged popular and congressional wisdom about global warming but the reports were significant more for their venue than content . 2008. 27 June 2008. Pollsters then told participants that supporters of the mandate say it will promote energy security. Biofuels are under siege. Time said that when carbon-storing forests in developing countries such as Brazil were razed to grow biofuel feedstock." Grunwald wrote. On the contrary." 60 . with reports that the price of bagels in New York has risen dramatically because of a shortage of wheat.38 (? 59. Citing a study reported in Science magazine. and in some countries where food is scarce or incomes are low. http://www. 2008 Ethanol's critics are ramping up their efforts to force Congress to revisit U. contributing to high food prices. The rising price of wheat is also hitting Americans closer to home. as unobjectionable as the troops or the middle class. Lexis-Nexis.An E&E Special Report The survey of 802 likely voters. In the same period. June 11. found that 76 percent of respondents want the ethanol law changed and 41 percent would like to see the mandate repealed. According to the FAO. other focused media and government studies for considerable time. does little to promote energy security and produces more greenhouse gas emissions. Allison Winter. The public considers ethanol dangerous. always environmentally suspect. provide financial benefits for rural areas and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. from $88. turns out to be environmentally disastrous. the annual average price of wheat has grown by 137%. where one person died and there were riots in Mexico over the price of corn." ICIS Chemical Business 11 Feb.eenews. Keyword: ethanol. imperilling the planet in the name of saving it". a nonprofit conservative think tank that receives almost all of its funding from individual donors.Ethanol Unpopular The rising price of food has put ethanol under public siege ICIS Chem Business 08.75/ton to $234.71)/short ton in 2000 to $164.S.Shared. this has caused civil disturbances.Links.a debatable point among agriculture experts." the story added.and they suggest a small but telling shift in public opinion. from $98. In it. April 10. However. "Renewable fuels has become one of those motherhood-and-apple-pie catchphrases. "Biofuelsbacklash. and even producing more greenhouse gases Environment & Energy Daily. Renewable fuels advocates characterized the survey as a "push poll. “INSIGHT: US public begins to question biofuels”. and the pitch-forks from the masses are finding their mark. shows that the world grain supply and demand situation is moving closer into balance and that stockpiles are dwindling. including a new poll that says most Americans think lawmakers should eliminate or reduce the corn ethanol mandate. In the past year. LexisNexis Academic. resistance. "Sugarcane ethanol is much cleaner and biofuels created from waste products that don't gobble up land have real potential but even cellulosic ethanol increases overall emissions when its plant source is grown on good cropland. and has been reported here and elsewhere on ICIS news. There is talk of food prices rising because of the diversion of corn (about 25% of the US crop in 2007) into ethanol production. biofuels policy. "corn ethanol and soy biodiesel produce about twice the emissions of gasoline"." Before asking for a response.CHKP 7Wk. Robinson.46 percent. "it is dramatically accelerating global warming. Obama Elections DA. Pollsters gave a slightly longer description of the position from opponents: that the mandate contributes to world hunger. Perhaps most surprising and damning was the Time magazine story of 27 March titled "The Clean Energy Myth" on the newsstand magazine's cover and [1]"The Clean Energy Scam" on its Web site. author Michael Grunwald baldly proclaimed: "Biofuels aren't part of the solution [to global warming]. energy. the news reports said that biofuels might not be the panacea for US energy and environmental problems and that emissions caps might damage the US economy without any effect on climate change. really. The fact that those grand dames of US media are questioning basic tenets of climate change philosophy indicates that a sea change in opinion may be under way. Citing various scholars and scientists. UM 08 MNDI Elections. The poll has a margin of error of 3. "But several new studies show the biofuel boom is doing exactly the opposite of what its proponents intended. None of this is very new stuff. Energy Harvest: Power From the Farm -. depending on how much corn is harvested this year.

the 46-year-old son of a black Kenyan man and a white American. http://www. He's never faced off with foreign leaders and has no idea what a delicate sparring match diplomacy in the Middle East can be. http://thecrossedpond. 'They will kill Obama if he becomes US president': Outcry over Nobel Prize winner's assassination warning. June 9.". UM 08 MNDI Obama-US-president-Outcry-Nobel-Prize-winners-assassination-warning. his assassination would be seen as a massively regressive http://www.Assassination A. dismissed Mrs Lessing's comments. But as chair of a Senate subcommittee on Europe.Shared. America’s global critics would be immesurably emboldened by the tragedy. Obama will be assassinated Mail Online 08 [Online Newspaper. 61 .dailymail.Impacts.that’s key to soft power Aslan 07 [Reza. And at a time in which the United States has gone from sole superpower to global pariah in a mere seven years." B. The blow to American soft power would rival that caused by the second Iraq War–just as Obama’s election might have been seen around the world as a progressive gesture.Obama win won’t increase US Soft Power Obama is too inexperienced when it comes to foreign policy. Feb 11.washingtonpost. a black man in the position of president. president. American Opinion group with sponsors. JRs. He Could Care Less About Obama's Story.html] British Nobel Prize winner Doris Lessing caused uproar last night by predicting the assassination of Barack Obama if he becomes the first black U. Turn. They would kill him. he has never made an official trip to Western Europe (except a one-day stopover in London in August 2005) or held a single policy dyn/content/article/2007/12/28/AR2007122801899_2.html] Obama may possess all the intuition of a fortuneteller. Obama Elections DA. The 88-year-old novelist's remarks came as the Democratic candidate toasted the most successful day in his White House campaign. and Future of Islam.S.CHKP 7Wk. p. Evolution. these things matter. Reza Aslan is an assistant professor of creative writing at the University of California at Riverside and the author of "No god but God: The Origins. 2. Miss Lessing said: "He would probably not last long. That kills soft power Crossed Pond 07 [What if Barack Obama is killed?. They would be far more successful in portraying America as a violent and racist] Lastly. Mr Obama. Dec 30.

Obama Elections DA.CHKP 7Wk.Shared. His underlying premise is that the United States has a deep national-security interest in the growth of democracy abroad. He tells the Castros to empty the political prisons. May 25. February 5. scholarships will be far more important than smart bombs. p. we should promote democracy abroad because ''it is the democracies of the world that will provide the pillars upon which we can and must build an enduring peace.Impacts. p. p. he said in his March speech. Lexis McCain tied these disparate strands of foreign-policy thinking together by saying that diplomatic " soft power " is as important as military power in facing the world's challenges. which Cuba hasn't seen since 1958. free the media and legalize labor unions and political parties. Yet McCain appreciates the importance of soft power . arguing that it would be shortsighted for America to sacrifice the moral high ground. And that was just his carrot. UM 08 MNDI Elections. And unlike his GOP rivals. McCain's policy would project both hard and soft power to boost democracy and build the private sector. He also wants free elections. March 26. 2008.McCain win would increase US Soft Power McCain’s policy would project both hard and soft power Investor's Business Daily. ''scholarships will be far more important than smart bombs. Lexis Instead of talk.'' McCain thinks soft power is just important as military power Knight Ridder Washington Bureau.'' In an effort to change the face of the Islamic world.he spoke out passionately against the use of torture in interrogation. Lexis McCain's democracy talk has a '' soft power'' side as well as a hard-power one. 62 . Lexis McCain has centered his campaign on national security. McCain’s foreign policy has a soft power side as well New York Times. May 22." "In this struggle. JRs." McCain appreciates the importance of soft power University Wire. the former POW boasts the military experience and foreign-policy expertise to back up his hawkish views. p. 2008. particularly in "winning the hearts and minds of the vast majority of moderate Muslims who do not want their future controlled by a minority of violent extremists. Our strategy of relying on autocrats to protect our interests in the Middle East and elsewhere has backfired. 2008. 2008. he said.

. A decline in religious tolerance toward Muslims hurts the image of the United States in Muslim countries such as Pakistan and Indonesia as well as in the Arab world. In this strategic vacuum. Former Dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and Former Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Clinton Administration. Former Dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and Former Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Clinton Administration. government seems to lack overall strategic sense of why exchange is important. As the educator Victor Johnson noted. "the U. little coordination of exchange policies and visa policies. 59 American soft power is eroded more by policies like capital punishment or the absence of gun control.Shared. and Americans are unpopular in many parts of the world. such policies undercut American soft power. for example.Impacts.S..VISA Procedures A/C to US Soft Power Status quo decline in number of foreign students in US weakens America’s global hegemony and soft power The Edge Malaysia. p. this broad net is catching all kinds of people who are no danger whatsoever. The US lost some of its attractiveness for many. and new visa procedures have discouraged some foreign students. and Italy. American support for the death penalty. where we are the deviants in opinion among advanced countries. The decline in overseas visitors. 2004. Foreign Affairs. JRs.. Attitudes toward immigration have hardened. Visa procedures that discourage foreign students from traveling to the US erode America’s soft power Joseph Nye Jr." There is." By needlessly discouraging people from coming to the United States. it is difficult to counter the day-to-day obstacles that students encounter in trying to come here. 2004. its soft power declined this year. December 20. UM 08 MNDI Elections.CHKP 7Wk. Lexis It is also important to establish more policy coherence among the various dimensions of public diplomacy. Obama Elections DA. and notably in the number of foreign students in the US. p. but it is an important factor in the weakening of America's global hegemony. Policies that discourage students from coming to America undercuts American soft power Joseph Nye. France. The Association of International Educators reports that. 2004. the American domestic response to terrorism after 9/11 runs some risk of reducing our soft-power resources. .92 Similarly. is the immediate result of stricter visa laws. despite a declining share of the market for international students. p. Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. meets disapproval from two-thirds of the public in Great Britain. for example. May/June. 63 . Germany. and to relate them to other issues. Lexis But while America's hard power dominates the world scene. "while greater vigilance is certainly needed.

http://www. for example. May. n37 America's immigration policy. 64 . Our government’s democratic values and promotion of peace and human rights influence how other countries perceive us. 51st Judge Advocate Officer Graduate Course. Nye focuses on America itself. would be the cultivation of what he calls “soft power. 2002. observes Nye. 2002. Mirlyn Government polices at home and abroad can enhance or curtail soft power. and today. that fact does not diminish its importance. States Army. Given its proper weight. United. Nye continues." Nye examines a wide range of issues and indicators that he believes either enhance or undercut America's soft power. p. two examples of “hard power” that can overwhelm and alienate other countries. freelance writer living in Cambridge. For better or worse. soft power can serve as a much-needed balance to our economic and military might. but an equally productive focusing point. Professor of Government at Harvard. n40 capital punishment.CHKP 7Wk. While its intangible quality makes soft power much more difficult to use and control. America’s use of capital punishment and relatively permissive gun control laws undercut its soft power in European countries. capital punishment and weak gun control laws undercut our soft power in Europe. "The Home Front. “Soft power arises from our culture.harvard.Impacts. but so also are government efforts to promote democracy in the Reagan and Clinton administrations. foreign policies strongly affect US soft power.Death Penalty A/C to US Soft Power America’s use of capital punishment undercuts its soft power Julia Hanna. Capital punishment undercuts US soft power Joseph Nye. The thousands of international students who come to study at U. Nye does an excellent job quantifying and explaining notoriously slippery issues such as whetherAmerica suffers from cultural and moral decay. p. n36 whether American's are losing confidence in their societal institutions. This chapter is particularly well-written and persuasive.ksg. Similarly. JRs. n38 and the fundamental health and attractiveness of the American economy. n41 and "income inequality" n42 in a negative light. institutions are an example of this country’s soft power. n39 Nye does indulge in some partisan sniping. March. in the 1950s.” he states. Spring. Conversely. Lexis After completing his analysis of America's potential competitors and the changing environment the United States faces. In the fourth chapter. Capital punishment undercuts America’s soft power MAJOR JOHN HYATT.” or the ability to advance one’s agenda through attraction rather than coercion. The Judge Advocate General's School. p. values. Obama Elections DA. For example. But this does not distract much from the thrust of his message. Asia-Pacific Review.html Military power is an essential part of the response.Shared. racial segregation at home undercut American soft power in Africa. he casts America's approach to gun control. so does the latest Bruce Willis action flick. foreign policies that appear arrogant and unilateral in the eyes of others diminish American soft power. Military Law Review. Jimmy Carter’s human rights policies are a case in point. and policies. UM 08 MNDI Elections.

" The bottom line on nuclear weapons is that they make the conquest of great powers unthinkable. terrorist attacks on the United States. was over determined. 2001. They claim that the best way to protect the United States in the 21st century is to emulate the British.72 But if the U. These threats can be managed without U. The more NATO frightens Russia. assistance.000 Americans. no 4. pg 13-14) The case for restraint rests on three theoretical foundations. but they make it impossible to conquer a nuclear-armed adversary. and other forms of anti- imperial backlash. controlling more than 21 percent of the world's GDP.73 Furthermore. in contrast. Increased hegemony risks overseas great power wars that go nuclear Gholz. Sapolsky is Professor of Public Policy and Organization in Political Science at MIT. A West European military union. Any savings from force cuts will be marginaL7' The larger long- term cost of selective engagement is the risk of involvement in faraway great power wars. and Director of MIT defense studies program (Eugene. The idea. and Director of MIT defense studies program (Eugene. World War I1 resulted in the deaths of 400. Great power conflicts will continue to be a rare occurrence. it would alarm other nations and peoples and thus provoke counterbalancing behavior and create incentives for other nations to acquire weapons of mass destruction as an insurance policy against American military might. The biggest cost of selective engagement is the risk of being drawn into someone else's faraway great power war. Sapolsky is Professor of Public Policy and Organization in Political Science at MIT. pg 31-32) The prospect for spirals is greater in Europe. spring. 65 . the offense defense balance influences both the likelihood of war and the mechanisms by which wars start. Indeed. War begins either when status quo powers fail to deter aggressor states (the "deterrence model") or when a status quo state's defense policies undermine the security of one of its status quo neighbors.Director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute (Ivan. governments think more seriously about their security and are more likely to use "realist" analysis in designing their defense policy.76A new great power conflict. Maybe the presence of nuclear weapons damped the conflict. especially if it expands eastward. "Come Home America" International Security vol 21. Harvey. But NATO. engagement does not reduce that danger. the Japanese. precipitating an action-reaction cycle (the "spiral model"). high-cost events. The Cold War's great power peace. as it did the Soviet Union and Great Britain. diplomatically. But the costs of distant great power wars must be compared to the costs of the strategy intended to prevent them. JRs. Harvey. could be large-scale and directed at America’s homeland. Advocates of selective engagement argue that their policy's costs are We disagree with this assessment.S. nov 26) Since the September 11. Forms of backlash today. World War I1 was fought to prevent the consolidation of Europe and Asia by hostile. ignores the fact that today’s world bears little resemblance to the one over which Britain or Rome once presided. Koreans.'5 Third. maybe having a common foe (the United States) tempered their hostility toward each other. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Cato policy analysis no 459.13 Second. "Come Home America" International Security vol 21. redirect its economy toward the military. and economically. and international trade would be disrupted. America will be both safer and more prosperous.Gholz and Press are doctoral candidates in the Department of Political Science at MIT. A war would be a human tragedy.S.CHKP 7Wk. Obama Elections DA. In fact. and other empires of the past. After an American withdrawal. the United States is much better off staying as far away from the combatants as possible.yet they managed to keep things from getting out of hand.Gholz and Press are doctoral candidates in the Department of Political Science at MIT.S. and Russians would still have to worry about China. many times that number wounded. Maintaining substantial military power in Europe and Asia and the capability to surge forces to the Persian Gulf will require most of America's current military assets. The logic behind the idea is that if the United States can consolidate the international system under its enlightened hegemony. the United States will have to fight a war. Two costs are associated with selective engagement and both are high: the cost of maintaining forces in Europe and Asia and the risk that. 17 But because of the risk of nuclear escalation.S. arrogant. however. that is.Shared. Some analysts agree that the probability of great power wars stemming from American withdrawal is very low. the British and the Romans were the targets of assassinations. however. and the challenge will encourage European and Asian regional cooperation. but that activity was typically small-scale and took place far from the mother country. devastating the "winner. is far more threatening. may worry Russia. the Bush administration’s ambitious new National Security Strategy seems to embrace the notion of neoimperialism. Second. Roman. no 4. sea lanes. or externally by searching for allies. a devastating strike can be delivered with a handful of ballistic missiles or other delivery vehicles not subject to interception. the world is far more interconnected today. engagement was not necessary for peaceful great power relations during the Cold War. risk-tolerant leaders might still engage in limited wars against nuclear powers. and strategic. nuclear weapons and the presence of a unifying threat played a greater role. arson. so no aggressor can conquer a nuclear-armed great power. even conventional battles between nuclear powers should be rare. several commentators have advanced the idea of security through empire. might become less enthusiastic. elevated territory-can now fire off a last-ditch punitive strike. Nuclear weapons brought a powerful restraining influence. Even the loser of a war-a country that has completely lost control of its airspace. Increased hegemony causes a nuclear backlash – US poses a threat Eland 02 . Daryl. Although the word “empire” is not used. European and Asian powers had a common foe which encouraged them to cooperate. the potential costs associated with making enemies today are far greater than they were for empires past. Two differences are obvious: First. Most of all. the environment would suffer. but a new great power war would not raise that specter. The strategy could also have the opposite effect from what its proponents claim it would have. spring." No conquest would justify the costs of a large nuclear exchange. throughout the Cold War. might exact even higher costs from the participants. First. even Germany. But it is clear that U. The Soviets and Chinese have had all the ingredients for a great power war-border disputes.14 As threats become more intense. because it would be German rather than American troops standing guard on the new borders. nuclear weapons do not make war obsolete. Some advocates of selective engagement point to the past fifty years as evidence that America's forward military presence reduces the chance of war.US Hegemony Bad Impacts Hegemony fails – 3 reasons – and the use of nuclear weapons makes counter-balancing conflicts go nuclear Gholz. states tend to balance against the emerging threat. either internally by converting latent military power into deployed forces. or clumsy international behavior riskier politically. it exacerbates the risk. but continued U.16 Because nuclear weapons explode with far more destructive force than conventional munitions. “The Empire Strikes Out The "New Imperialism" and Its Fatal Flaws". the more likely it is that Russia will turn dangerously nationalist. rather. some evidence suggests that America's overseas presence was not the principal cause of great power peace during the Cold War. with 44 percent of the world's GDP. and occasional military clashes along their frontier. The Sino-Soviet dispute has been one of the bitterest in the world since the 1960s. Europe's strongest advocate for NATO expansion. with the possibility of nuclear use. Daryl. but when they happen. Press and Sapolsky 97 . the strategy of empire is likely to overstretch and bleed America’s economy and its military and federal budgets. when faced with external threats to their security. which makes the consequences of sanctimonious. but they still advocate engagement because they fear low-probability. and nearly 40 percent of GDP devoted to defense (compared to 4 percent today). Wars may still happen. military were to withdraw from Europe. a two-MRC force.Impacts. the Europeans would still need to keep an eye on Russia. hostile ideologies. and try to re-absorb its old buffer states. and the overextension could hasten the decline of the United States as a superpower. fanatical adversaries. Press and Sapolsky 97 . with engagement.

uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/2182070/Israel-'will-attack-Iran'- before-new-US-president-sworn-in. The US and Iran are simultaneously exploring a grand bargain and putting pressure on each other. It is highly unlikely. an unflinching hawk who proposes military action to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons. National Correspondent for The Atlantic Monthly.CHKP 7Wk. though not eliminate. but beyond that. not when the US has 150. Moreover. Turkey would be unlikely to acquiesce in permanent strategic superiority for its historic Persian rival. Jerusalem Post. Such an attack is unlikely. There will be a strong public reaction in the 66 . for two reasons. JRs.Impacts.** It would be a nice way to atone for the Kyl-Lieberman vote. while conceivable.00. its economy is a mess. The other.S. June won’t strike Iran US has given up on the possibility of attacking Iran John Bolton. p. http://www. p. June 10. but if the grand bargain attempt is seen to fail absolutely. p. it could go on record denying authorization and funds for use in a preemptive strike. Saudi Arabia could surely acquire the technology from Pakistan. or a blockade. http://www. it is wrong to write off Bush. Oil prices will further skyrocket and Iran could add to the crisis by cutting output. Re-stating the case against preemptive action is important. It may very well cause the US greater difficulty in Iraq. I just don't think it's in the cards.23896672- 7583.jpost. and increased terror can be expected against US and Western targets. June 21. Former U. To give the order would be rash and nuts. it the Congress wanted to be useful.theaustralian. p. but its Despite the weakness of the US position. What can it truly do? Attack American ships.theatlantic. Obama Elections DA. an attack to delay by several years at least Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons cannot be ruled block the Gulf? Maybe a pinprick to make it look good at home. much more important. the dangers of Iran's potential responses. that Iran would be willing to go beyond limited actions and risk direct military escalation. Iran is extremist." he said. If you had asked me a year ago I would have said I thought it was a real possibility. the risks of escalation and the costs to Iran's economy are too great. is a last-ditch effort to dissuade Iran from acquiring nuclear TheAtlantic. "I don't think it's serious any more. bemoaned what he sees as a lack of will by the Bush administration to itself contemplate military strikes. This does not mean the US definitely will not attack Iran's nuclear facilities. cid=1214132686901&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull There is little doubt that Iran will respond to a direct attack. http://jamesfallows.000 soldiers on its doorstep. I suspect. in Washington and the Middle East. and at this point in a lame-duck administration rash ideas encounter more friction that in earlier days. Despite Iran's oil reserves and geo-strategic power. heated rhetoric notwithstanding. Ambassador to the United Nations and Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. No impact to Iran retaliating against a military attack Chuck Freilich. "It's clear that the administration has essentially given up that possibility. I've tried to do so several times. http://www.telegraph. 2008. 2006.html Mr Bolton. if it hasn't already. US military attack on Iran unlikely James Fallows. It is vulnerable to sanctions and it is undergoing a serious internal debate about its direction. This is not least because many analysts. are actually limited.Shared. 2008.25197. But if anything the case is stronger if it doesn't rest on assertions the strike is about to occur. Separately. UM 08 MNDI Elections. June 26. but anything beyond temporary measures would be tantamount to cutting off its nose to spite its face. One is the weakness and partial exhaustion of the US's political position in the last days of the Bush administration. is unlikely because it is so obviously self- destructive.html Washington is attempting this grand bargain with Iran. 2008. US preparations can greatly reduce.* Meanwhile. not irrational. His recent trip to Europe has achieved greater European pressure and financial sanctions against Iran.php I have thought all along that an attack." US military attack against Iran unlikely The Australian. believe that a Persian Shi'ite nuclear bomb will surely beget an Arab Sunni nuclear bomb.

UM 08 MNDI Elections. If the US plays out the diplomatic route first. 67 .CHKP 7Wk. Moslem world. international reaction will be muted. JRs.Shared. though Arab regimes will be quietly relieved to be free of a nuclear Iran.

June 22.CHKP 7Wk.Obama Victory causes US strike against Iran If Obama wins the election. Kristol added that if Senator John McCain was going to win the presidency. UM 08 MNDI Elections. Bush will attack Iran Daniel Pipes. launch a military strike? KRISTOL: I don't know. http://thinkprogress. McCain that wins.does he worry that Obama won't follow through on that policy? Which is not just a Bush policy. Bush will strike Iran before he leaves office Bill Kristol. 68 . if the president thought John McCain were going to be the next president. you can't -. June 5. WALLACE: So are you suggesting that he might.N. http://rawstory. JRs.Impacts. 2008. p. Security Council. either before or after the election. the Taube/Diller distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution. It's a policy of the U. does he somehow think that -. I mean. 2008. but it's just factually true that electing someone like him. I think he would worry about it. 2008.and people are free to be for him for a million reasons. p. And should it be Mr. you attack-iran-if-he-thinks-obama-will-win/ President Bush is more likely to attack Iran if he thinks Senator Barack Obama may be elected. in fact. if Obama is going to win the election. according to an article by the Los Angeles Times. he would think it more appropriate to let the next president make that decision than do it on his way out. honestly. Director of the Middle East Forum. I think increases the risk of enemies testing him in his first months in office and allies being worried that he'll be too weak. Editor of the Weekly Standard. though. and let McCain decide what to do.Shared. Fox News Network. he’ll punt. what signal goes to Ahmadinejad if Obama wins on a platform of unconditional negotiations and with an obvious reluctance to even talk about using military force? And that's one of the ways in which electing someone like Obama -. Senators McCain and Obama have often sparred about whether military force or diplomacy should be the primary way of dealing with Iran. Obama Elections DA. On the other What I suspect will be the case is. p. with the policies he's articulated. Bush would “think it more appropriate” to let him deal with the issue. Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol told FOX News Sunday morning.using force against Iran. June 22. and earned a doctorate in early Islamic history from Harvard in's hard to make foreign policy based on guesses about election results. I do wonder with Senator Obama -. And it's not just Israel using nuclear weapons -. I think Israel is worried. What do Saudi Arabia and Egypt think if they listen to Obama? Don't they have a temptation to think. President Bush will do something. maybe we could use nuclear weapons if Obama becomes president?" If Obama wins the election. "Gee.if President Bush thinks Senator Obama is going to win. Bush more likely to attack Iran if Obama wins the election The Raw Story. should the Democratic nominee win in November. Lexis And I think. I mean.

S. this presents a number of problems for America and for the world.html Bolton thinks Israel may consider postponing the attack. That leaves Israel.-John-Bolton-predicts. Israel won’t attack Iran if McCain wins the election John and few countries will help the Israelis. "I think if they are to do anything. however. Obama Elections DA. June 26. at least not right now. Now. Hezbollah. Israel will attack the Iranians. 2009. So America will not use its military to stop Iran's nuclear aspirations. which he would not get. but certainly implied.CHKP 7Wk. the USA cannot attack Iran without alienating much of the planet. Unstated. he would be vilified and impeached. Ambassador to the United Nations and Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Former U. CBS analyst Michael Oren says that Israel does not want to wait for the new American president to be elected before action is taken.2933.telegraph. If President Bush were to attack Iran without congressional approval.S.S.00. First. http://www. June According to CBS News. June 25. My judgement is they would not want to do anything before our election because there's no telling what impact it could have on the election. 2006. however.this would cause the world economy to collapse Fox News.Obama Victory causes Israeil strike against Iran Israel will attack Iran if Obama wins the presidential election John Bolton. Such a scenario would send oil prices well above $200 a barrel. Hamas and possibly Syria will join Iran in striking Israel. 2008. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton believes Israel will stage a raid against Iran's nuclear facilities if Democratic nominee Barack Obama wins the upcoming presidential election in November. It is important for all of us to realize how fearful many people are these days. Israel is telling President Bush that if he doesn't do something to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons capability. still had a determination to prevent a nuclear Iran. http://www. JRs. http://www.html Israel. In an interview with FOX News. believes the Israeli attack would take place sometime between the day after Obama's win and his inauguration on January 20 of next year.S. R-Ariz.Shared. no matter what the stakes are. p.newsmax.Impacts.newsmax. if Senator John McCain. p. p. Former "They're also obviously looking at the American election calendar. "The Israelis have one eye on the calendar because of the pace at which the Iranians are proceeding both to develop their nuclear weapons capability and to do things like increase their defences by buying new Russian anti-aircraft systems and further harden the nuclear installations . Former'will-attack-Iran'- before-new-US-president-sworn-in. And this is exactly what the Islamic fascists want: world wide chaos and condemnation of Israel and the USA." Bolton reasons Israel wont be able to hold off a strike on Iran any longer than that given the Illinois senator's intended foreign policy toward the Islamic Republic. He says McCain's stance on Iran is far more realistic than that of the Bush administration. he argued. http://www.. often labeled a resolute neo-conservative. Telegraph. There is simply no will in this world — and in much of this country — for an armed confrontation with including millions of Americans. emerges as the victor in the presidential race. is that Israel believes Barack Obama might win and that he might not be as aggressive toward Iran as the Bush administration is. 69 . UM 08 MNDI Elections. causing the world economy to collapse. Bolton says. If Israel strikes Iran. they would likely do it between election and inauguration dates John Bolton. p. If that country attacks Iran. 2008. Ambassador to the United Nations and Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. the most likely period is after our elections and before the inauguration of the next President.html Former U." Obama victory would cause Israel to attack Iran. Bolton. Ambassador to the United Nations and Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The "optimal window" for strikes would be between the November 4 election and the inauguration on January 20. June 25. 2008. a full-fledged war will break out in the Middle East.

70 . UM 08 MNDI Elections. JRs.CHKP 7Wk.Shared.