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Russia DA

Uniqueness – Russia and the United States get along now
Medvedev: No progress with US after Bush meeting, Steve Gutterman (staff writer),
The Associated Press, July 9th 2008.

Medvedev said Russia wants good relations with Bush's successor in the White House, and that
he and Bush agreed the U.S. election campaign should not disrupt their ties.

"We expressed our mutual opinion that under no conditions should we allow a pause in the
relations," Medvedev said. He said that "irrespective of who wins in the elections, we are interested in
normal, comprehensive and constructive relations with the U.S. administration."

Internal link- Europe, china and many other countries will follow
the united states for alt. energy.

John Podesta, Todd Stern, and Kit Batten, (President, Managing Director for Energy and
Environmental Policy, and Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress), Capturing the
Energy Opportunity,, November 2007, Retrieved 6-5-

“But far-reaching, mandatory U.S. action has to come first. Without that, the United States
will have no credibility to argue for broader global participation. American action will spur
developing world action in two separate ways. First, the policy changes needed to cut
carbon emissions in the United States are job producing and growth-generating actions.
Other countries will emulate them, just as China, Russia, Brazil, and other countries have
adopted building energy codes and appliance efficiency standards based on U.S. models.”

(So after many countries start switching to alternative energy. The demand for Russia oil is
going to decrease dramatically)

down from around 22 percent in 2000. on a small scale. Summer.pdf) in 2005 the number of dollar millionaires in Russia grew by 17. Yegor Gaidar has repeatedly reminded us that the sixfold decrease in the oil price in 1986 led to the collapse of the USSR. and accounted for 30 percent of all foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country. Most of Russia's product exports consist of fuel oil and diesel fuel. have almost doubled since 2004.S. The causes of the economy’s success give no grounds for optimism. Hudson Institute Study Group on U. Updated monthly and annual data are available from EIA’s Petroleum Navigator.S. the fuel sector accounts for about 20. rising to over 400.External link.hudson. .5 percent of GDP. the government established a stabilization fund in 2004..-Web%20(2).-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: IS CONFLICT INEVITABLE?. in the United States.-Russian Relations in 7(U. mainly because it is associated with high oil prices and has partly been achieved by sectors protected from foreign competition. the economy has a false bottom. the fund was expected to be worth $158 billion. http://www. Impacts. By the end of Increases in product exports can be attributed to political pressures to maintain refinery operations and higher international oil product prices. like everything else in Russia.Russia’s economy is dependent on exporting oil Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas exports. the oil and gas sector generated more than 60 percent of Russia’s export revenues (64% in 2007). According to IMF and World Bank estimates.Russians economy would collapse with no oil Russia’s economy will collapse if oil prices decline. which are used for heating in European countries and. and the twofold fall in 1998 caused a financial crisis that almost finished off the barely breathing Russian economy.4 percent as against 6 percent in the U.000 bbl/d of crude oil and products in 2007. A collapse of the oil price could plunge the Russian economy into recession. and people remember what a fall in the oil price means.S. However. In order to manage windfall oil receipts. Russian oil exports to the U. According to calculations by Alfa Bank. or about 12 percent of the country’s nominal GDP.

Russia's 89 republics.does not suffer civil war quietly or alone. If these rebellions spread and Moscow responds with force. A major power like Russia -. Within Russia. in scores of sites scattered throughout the country. Three-quarters of them already have their own constitutions. As the central government finds itself unable to force its will beyond Moscow (if even that far). David '99 (STEVEN R.A collapsed economy in Russia would result in chaos and maybe nuclear war. DAVID is a Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University. power devolves to the periphery. Chechnya's successful revolt against Russian control inspired similar movements for autonomy and independence throughout the country. With the economy collapsing. Just as the sheer brutality of the last Russian civil war laid the basis for the privations of Soviet communism. western Europe. So far. republics feel less and less incentive to pay taxes to Moscow when they receive so little in return. particularly attacks on nuclear plants. Should Russia succumb to internal war. "Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars. 1999. the consequences for the United States and Europe will be severe. making weapons and supplies available to a wide range of anti-American groups and states. the consequences would be even worse. krais. Armed struggles in Russia could easily spill into its neighbors. however. a second civil war might produce another horrific regime.000 nuclear weapons and the raw material for tens of thousands more. would poison the environment of much of Europe and Asia. Strong ethnic bonds promoted by shortsighted Soviet policies may motivate non-Russians to secede from the Federation. civil war is likely. the government has managed to prevent the loss of any weapons or much material. Russia retains some 20. 1999 / February. however.even though in decline -. No nuclear state has ever fallen victim to civil war. and oblasts grow ever more independent in a system that does little to keep them together. nearly all of which make some claim to sovereignty. And it is hard to think of anything that would increase this threat more than the chaos that would follow a Russian civil war . Moscow's already weak grip on nuclear sites will slacken. Damage from the fighting. If war erupts. Most alarming is the real possibility that the violent disintegration of Russia could lead to loss of control over its nuclear arsenal. Such dispersal of nuclear weapons represents the greatest physical threat America now faces." Foreign Affairs January.Impact 2.) Divining the military's allegiance is crucial. An embattled Russian Federation might provoke opportunistic Massive flows of refugees would pour into central and attacks from enemies such as China. but even without a clear precedent the grim consequences can be foreseen. since the structure of the Russian Federation makes it virtually certain that regional conflicts will continue to erupt.