Arizona Debate Institute 2008

State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

State Economy (Non-Iowa) DA Index
State Economy (Non-Iowa) DA Index...........................................................................................................1 Florida Economy DA ***Sugar***..............................................................................................................2 1NC - Florida Economy DA..........................................................................................................................3 Uniqueness - Florida Econ High....................................................................................................................4 Arkansas Economy DA ***Cotton***..........................................................................................................5 1NC - Arkansas Economy DA ......................................................................................................................6 Uniqueness – Arkansas Econ High................................................................................................................7 Links - Cotton ................................................................................................................................................8 North Dakota Economy DA ***Sugar Beets***...........................................................................................9 1NC – North Dakota Economy DA............................................................................................................10 Uniqueness – North Dakota Econ High.......................................................................................................11 Massachusetts Economy DA ***Fisheries***............................................................................................12 1NC – Massachusetts Economy DA............................................................................................................13 North Carolina Economy DA ***CAFO’s***.............................................................................................14 1NC – North Carolina Economy DA ..........................................................................................................15 *** AFF*** North Carolina ........................................................................................................................17 Uniqueness – North Carolina Econ Low .....................................................................................................18 *** AFF*** California ................................................................................................................................19 ***AFF *** Florida ....................................................................................................................................21 Uniqueness – Florida Econ Low .................................................................................................................22 Uniqueness – Florida Econ Low .................................................................................................................23 Florida Economy – Link Turns ...................................................................................................................24 *** AFF*** Massachusetts .........................................................................................................................25 Uniqueness – Massachusetts Econ Low ......................................................................................................26 Link Turns - Cotton......................................................................................................................................27 *** AFF*** North Dakota ..........................................................................................................................28 .....................................................................................................................................................................28 Uniqueness – North Dakota Econ Low .......................................................................................................29 ***AFF *** Arkansas .................................................................................................................................30 Uniqueness – Arkansas Econ Low ..............................................................................................................31

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
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Fellows

Florida Economy DA ***Sugar***

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
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1NC - Florida Economy DA
(A) Uniqueness - Florida econ high – businesses Jacksonville Business Journal 7-24
(“’High impact’ businesses drive Florida’s growth,” 08) Businesses whose sales have at least doubled over four years are the major driver of Florida's employment and revenue growth, according to a U.S. Small Business Administration study.Of the 376,600 such businesses nationwide, called highimpact businesses by the SBA, a little more than 32,000, or about 2 percent, are in Florida. "High-impact firms are important to Florida's economic growth and development," said Chad Moutray, chief economist for the SBA's Office of Advocacy, in a news release. "State policy makers would be wise to consider how their policies can encourage such firms.” These "high-impact" businesses are found in all industries, tend to be on average 25 years old and come in all class sizes, according to the recently released study, "High-Impact Firms: Gazelles Revisited." In late 2007, the Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce launched a new group to assist second-stage businesses and determine which services are missing.

(B) Link – Subsidies key to Florida’s economy Florida Insider 07
(“Big Scapegoat: The War on Florida’s Sugar Industry,” October 16) But in Florida at least, it often seems that public enemy number one is “Big Sugar,” the big-sounding, usually pejorative nickname for South Florida’s sugar industry. The caricature isn’t new. Remember fictional Congressman David Dilbeck, played by Burt Reynolds, from Carl Hiassen’s novel-turned-film “Strip Tease?” That tale of Dilbeck’s lust for the character portrayed by Demi Moore viewed doubly sweet for having a key scene of dastardly-do happen in a nighttime Okeechobee cane field. Now with “Cane,” the klieg lights of national media are trained on the sugar industry as never before. In Florida, this is nothing new. For years, in the minds of everybody from environmentalists to editorial writers to thirsty Miamians, fiction has been truer than truth. Big Sugar has become the Big Scapegoat for whatever ails the pop-up civilization known as South Florida.

(C) Impacts - Florida’s economy key to global economy Bush 06
(President George W., “President Bush Discusses the Economy in Florida,” The White House, July 31) And here's another way that we can help the entrepreneurial spirit flourish and help make sure south Florida remains a vibrant part of our national economy, and that is to open up markets for trade. I'm worried about protectionist tendencies in the United States, people saying, well, we don't want to -- really want to compete. Let's just kind of throw up some walls and barriers so people can't sell products into the United States. Such policies will damage the Port of Miami; such policies are shortsighted, as far as I'm concerned.

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness - Florida Econ High
Florida econ high Kauffmannn 08
(Chris, staff writer, Orlando Business Journal, 07/11, http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2008/07/14/story2.html) The worst of the state's recession is over. So says Evangelos Otto Simos, chief economist for Durham, N.H.-based Infometrica. His firm runs e-forecasting.com, which just issued a new report saying Florida's leading economic indicators showed improvement in May, for the second straight month. And that, Simos says, may signal the bottom of the economic cycle has come and gone. "The economy is still not good, but it won't become worse than it is. It's the beginning of the turnaround."

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Arkansas Economy DA ***Cotton***

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1NC - Arkansas Economy DA
(A) Uniqueness – Arkansas econ high Stevens 08
(Laura, “$500 million pipeline in the works,” Arkansas Online, July 1) Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP has started building a 167-mile, $500 million pipeline to take natural gas from the Fayetteville Shale in north-central Arkansas to market. A peak of about 1,300 people will be employed in Arkansas during the construction, which is expected to be complete early next year. Conway County Judge Jimmy Hart estimated at a news conference Monday morning that 250 Arkansans thus far are employed by the project, which began construction in May. The payroll is an estimated $57 million. The Fayetteville Shale, a natural-gas formation that stretches from north-central Arkansas to the Mississippi River, is expected to have a $22 billion impact on the Arkansas economy between 2005 and 2012, according to a study by the University of Arkansas. However, state officials have said that number may be exaggerated. Originally announced in December 2006, Houston-based Boardwalk's pipeline was expected to cost $360 million. Since then, the price tag has gone up because of increased labor and materials costs, said Mike Mc-Mahon, senior vice president and general counsel for Boardwalk. "Since we've experienced increases in prices on some of the other projects we've completed, we're estimating a little bit higher than what we first reported on costs," McMahon said during a phone interview Monday. Gov. Mike Beebe toured the construction site in Center Ridge on Monday morning. "Not just for this area, but for the whole state, this is jobs; it's employment," he said. "It's the opportunity for people to make money and spend money. That helps the retailers - that helps every aspect of the Arkansas economy." Boardwalk's Fayetteville Lateral pipeline is part of an almost $5 billion investment to link unconventional natural-gas sources to the company's already established main transportation lines.

(B) Link - Farm subsidies key to Arkansas economy Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 05
(“Cotton farmers hit by 1-2 punch Arkansas stung by Bush subsidy plans, WTO trade ruling,” March 13) The National Cotton Council has cautioned that "reductions in U.S. agricultural support, prior to the completion of international trade negotiations, is the equivalent of unilateral disarmament." Randy Veach, a Mississippi County cotton farmer from Manila, said he believes the trade and budget issues are linked and that the outcome of the negotiations could have a significant impact on Arkansas. "There's no doubt that Congress and the administration are trying to make [farm] payments `greener' and less tied to markets and to production," which would facilitate WTO compliance, Veach said. Many observers believe "greener" farm programs, which would reward farmers for conservation and environmental performance, would be preferable to programs that reward them for agricultural productivity. The University of Arkansas has estimated that Bush's proposed budget reductions would mean $200 million less in farm subsidies for Arkansas during 2006, farmer Veach said. "That would cripple the agriculture economy in Arkansas."

( C) Impacts - Arkansas economy key to global economy

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State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness – Arkansas Econ High
Arkansas economy is growing strong now The Associated Press State & Local Wire, 04-23-08 (“Business leaders say Ark. economy has its strong points”
April 23, 2008 lexisnexis) The Arkansas economy has some soft spots, such as in sectors related to new home construction, but business leaders say the state has the elements in place to bounce back from the current slowdown. Randy Zook, a deputy director of the Arkansas Economic Development Commission, said direct investment from overseas will continue to help add jobs to the state. Speaking at the spring economic forecast conference by the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, Zook cited manufacturers that have recently set up shop in Little Rock. LM Glasfiber is building a $150 million plant at the Little Rock port where it will make windmill blades to supply the wind power industry. The company has already started production at a temporary site in south Little Rock. Other companies include two pipe manufacturers, Welspun Group Inc. and Man Industries Ltd., both of India. Welspun and Man each say they expect to spend $100 million for plants at the Arkansas River port. With the closure of a meat plant that burned in Booneville, that city is coping with the loss of 800 jobs, though there is a chance the plant may reopen. "If you're in Booneville right now, you're not in a recession, you're in a depression," Zook said. He said the situation is similar in Prescott, where a Potlatch Corp. mill has closed, putting about 180 people out of work. Forest products and businesses relate to new home construction are taking it on the chin because of the slowdown. But Zook said the foundation is solid. "Those things are going to come back," Zook said. "The industry will work off the unsold inventory." Zook said there are some clear bright spots for Arkansas, including the income that row crop farmers are expecting due to high prices for commodities such as soybeans, rice and corn. Plus, there is the development of the Fayetteville Shale play.

Arkansas’s economy is up now Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 04-23-08 (DAVID SMITH “Economist: Recession is here He says subprime mortgage
market biggest contributor” April 23, 2008, lexisnexis) "Even in November, there was a wide range of people who were very optimistic that this economy was going to grow at a rate of about 2 percent a year," Goho said. "But I believe the economic growth is not there. I don't expect an economic collapse, but I think there will be serious economic turmoil." Arkansas' economy is doing relatively well, according to businessmen who also spoke at the conference at the Little Rock Hilton - Robert Smith, senior vice president at Dassault Falcon Jet; Thomas Schueck, chairman of Lexicon Inc. of Little Rock; Danny Games, director of corporate development at Chesapeake Energy; and Randy Zook, deputy director of administration and finance at the Arkansas Economic Development Commission. But a problem facing companies and the state is finding qualified workers. Smith said Falcon Jet has 200 high-paying jobs available, but cannot find people to fill them. Schueck said Lexicon, which is the parent for Schueck Steel, has had to develop a program where it trains workers because there are no qualified people to hire. Games said Chesapeake has dozens of jobs for workers on natural-gas drilling rigs that pay $55,000 and up, but it has to have people trained at community colleges in Beebe and Poteau, Okla., to fill them. Zook noted that there are about 75,000 Arkansans who are unemployed, and there are likely 75,000 jobs available across the state. The problem is that the 75,000 unemployed Arkansans aren't qualified to fill the available jobs, Zook said.

7/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows Links - Cotton

Farm subsides key to Arkansas economy Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 05
(“Cotton farmers hit by 1-2 punch Arkansans stung by Bush subsidy plans, WTO trade ruling,” 03/13, Lexis) Given U.S. cotton's increasing dependence on exports, the World Trade Organization's cotton ruling has an added significance. But Seth Meyer, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, doesn't expect to see any immediate changes in U.S. cotton subsidies. "There is no WTO police force which comes in and makes us change our rules," Meyer said, although Brazil eventually could be authorized to invoke retaliatory trade measures. The 301-page WTO appeals decision, which followed an initial 370-page ruling, is still being reviewed by U.S. trade officials and cotton-industry leaders. But Meyer said the appeals body "refused to answer" or quantify a number of issues, thus making it difficult to determine what penalties might be appropriate. "There's really no short-term motivation to make some correction today," he said. The National Cotton Council has cautioned that "reductions in U.S. agricultural support, prior to the completion of international trade negotiations, is the equivalent of unilateral disarmament." Randy Veach, a Mississippi County cotton farmer from Manila, said he believes the trade and budget issues are linked and that the outcome of the negotiations could have a significant impact on Arkansas. "There's no doubt that Congress and the administration are trying to make [farm] payments `greener' and less tied to markets and to production," which would facilitate WTO compliance, Veach said. Many observers believe "greener" farm programs, which would reward farmers for conservation and environmental performance, would be preferable to programs that reward them for agricultural productivity. The University of Arkansas has estimated that Bush's proposed budget reductions would mean $200 million less in farm subsidies for Arkansas during 2006, farmer Veach said. "That would cripple the agriculture economy in Arkansas." Eric Wailes, an agricultural economist at the University of Arkansas, said farm subsidies have increased the value of farmland and a drop in subsidies could reverse that trend.

Cotton subsidies key to Arkansas econ Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 05
(“Cotton farmers hit by 1-2 punch Arkansans stung by Bush subsidy plans, WTO trade ruling,” 03/13, Lexis) Although Arkansas' planted cotton acreage fell in 2004 to a 10-year low of 910,000 acres, a record yield of 1,112 pounds per acre boosted the state's production to an all-time high of 2.1 million bales of cotton fiber. The 795 tons of cottonseed produced was exceeded only in 1937. Arkansas' 2004 season-average cotton price of 55.9 cents per pound meant that the state's cotton fiber was worth $488.4 million. The cottonseeds were worth an additional $77.5 million. For the 10 th straight year, cotton was Arkansas' third-most important row crop in terms of production value. The state's 2004 rice crop, worth $768.2 million, and soybean crop, worth $690.6 million, ranked first and second. Cotton also ranked third in terms of 2004 planted acreage in Arkansas. Soybeans ranked first at 3.2 million acres and rice second at 1.6 million acres.

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

North Dakota Economy DA ***Sugar Beets***

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State Economy DAs non-Iowa

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1NC – North Dakota Economy DA
(A) Uniqueness – North Dakota econ high Moore 08
(Delbert, “Weak dollar has benefits for economy,” In-Forum, July 27) The new parity of the Canadian dollar with ours has greatly increased the number of Canadians shopping and vacationing in North Dakota, which is of immense advantage to our economy. North Dakota has increased foreign exports of agricultural machinery from about

(B) Link – subsidies key to North Dakota economy Conrad 08
(“Agriculture,” http://conrad.senate.gov/issues/agriculture.cfm) "Agriculture is the backbone of North Dakota's economy, and it is important that we build upon the successes of the 2002 Farm Bill as we write a new Farm Bill this year. We need to maintain and improve current commodity programs and look for new ways to further tie energy in with the crops we grow. I was proud to be one of four chief negotiators during the last Farm Bill, and I look forward to producing new legislation that will continue to help North Dakota's farmers, ranchers, and rural communities."

(C) Impacts – North Dakota agriculture key
North Dakota’s economy historically has been closely tied to natural resource-intensive industries, particularly agriculture. Since about 1980, problems in the farm sector, including low commodity prices and adverse weather, have contributed to the long-term trend of declining farm numbers. During the same period, the percentage of the state’s population living in urban places (i.e., towns with 2,500 or more residents) has grown from 45.6 percent in 1980 to 53.3 percent in 1990 and 55.0 percent in 2000. These trends suggest some restructuring of the state’s economy may have occurred. Economic development and diversification have long been priorities for North Dakota policy makers. During the1990s, developing agricultural products processing facilities within the state was a major economic development initiative. Farm input manufacturing also has become an important component of North Dakota’s manufacturing sector, as several input manufacturers began or expanded operations during the 1990s. The purpose of this report is to assess the role of agriculture in the North Dakota economy, as well as recent changes in the state’s economic structure. Key indicators used in the analysis include sales for final demand (i.e., sales to outof-state markets), gross state product (value added), and employment for each economic sector.

(2) Agriculture key to US econ (Insert card from Starter Set)

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness – North Dakota Econ High
Econ high – health care Bismack Tribune 08
(“Economy still strong in North Dakota,” July 16, www.bismarcktribune.com/articles/2008/07/16/news/opinion/editorials/160293.txt) Sales tax receipts give one indication of the health of a state's economy. North Dakotans continue to spend. The healthy economy has been sustained for a remarkable 20 consecutive quarters, five years of each quarter showing more sales than the previous year's equivalent period. In the first quarter of 2008, sales of $2.42 billion in the state indicated an increase of 12.9 percent from the same time the year before. Bismarck's increase was right at 6 percent.

Econ high Hagenbaugh 08
(Barbara, “How’s the economy in your hometown?” USA Today, 3/6) While higher farm prices are leading to rising prices in grocery stores, the gains are providing a big boost to areas where grains are grown, such as regions of North and South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. Not only are the higher prices helping farmers, but they also are boosting sales of companies that sell to farmers, such as John Deere. (DE) The Moline, Ill.-based company said last month it expects sales of equipment such as tractors and combines to rise approximately 17% in 2008.

11/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Massachusetts Economy DA ***Fisheries***

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
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Fellows

1NC – Massachusetts Economy DA
(A)Uniqueness – Massachusetts econ high Gavin 08
(Robert T. “State far outpacing US economy, report says,” The Boston Globe, April 30) The Massachusetts economy, buoyed by the technology sector, grew about five times faster than the nation's in the first three months of the year, the University of Massachusetts reported. The state's economy expanded at 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, UMass said, while the US economy grew only slightly -- at a 0.6 percent annual rate, according to the Commerce Department.

(B) Link – subsidies key to Mass economy Patrick and Murray 08
June 9, Gov. Deval L., Lieutenant Gov. Timothy P. "Governor Patrick Announces $13.4 Million in Relief Funds for Fishing Industry" "The over 1500 miles of Massachusetts coastlines and the communities it includes are not just part of our history and identity but a vital part of our economy," said Lt. Governor Timothy P. Murray. "The preservation and promotion of our fishing industry is an important part of the Patrick-Murray Administration's economic agenda." "The Massachusetts fishing industry is a vital part of the Commonwealth's economy," Senator Kennedy's spokeswoman Melissa Wagoner said. "Senator Kennedy is delighted that this long overdue relief is finally being made available to the fishermen. Those who have been harmed by the reductions in their days at sea mandated by Framework 42 should contact the Division of Marine Fisheries to apply for this well-deserved assistance." "Thousands of Massachusetts fishermen are finally getting the urgent relief they need," said Senator Kerry. "I am happy that as a result of the all of our hard work we are able to deliver the financial assistance that will enable thousands of our fishermen to get back on their feet and allow for the survival of one of our state's most significant and storied industries." "I am pleased the federal government recognized the importance of helping a vital industry in the Commonwealth while we all work to create a long-term fisheries management plan that truly works," said House Speaker Salvatore F. DiMasi. "Governor Patrick, Secretary Bowles, Senate President Murray, legislators representing coastal regions and our congressional delegation deserve our praise and thanks for their continued hard work on this important issue."

(C) Impacts – Mass econ key to US econ Boston Foundation 08
(“Economy” http://www.tbf.org/IndicatorsProject/Economy/Default.aspx) Boston anchors a regional economy of more than five million people that extends from Southern New Hampshire to Worcester and Cape Cod — making up the US Census Bureau’s "Boston-Worcester-Manchester Consolidated Statistical Area," the nation’s 7th largest metro area. At slightly fewer than 600,000 inhabitants, Boston is the 22nd largest US city, yet it has one of the nation’s highest concentrations of jobs and income, doubling its population each day as commuters flow into the city to work. Among US cities with populations between 500,000 and one million, Boston ranks 2nd in its ratio of jobs to residents. With its historic character, world-class museums, reinvigorated cultural sector, vibrant neighborhoods, extensive public transit, new Convention and Exhibition Center, beautiful natural surroundings, international airport and deep-water port, Boston is a destination for immigrants, tourists and business visitors alike, and the gateway to New England. Boston’s competitive advantages lie in research and development emerging from the area’s institutions of higher education and health care, and in financial, governmental, business, professional and human services, a beautiful physical infrastructure, culture of innovation and skilled workforce. Revitalized neighborhood business districts reflect Community Development Corporation(CDC) activity, the City’s Main Streets Initiative and a spate of new supermarkets, while major new commercial and mixed-use development is transforming many parts of the city.

13/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

North Carolina Economy DA ***CAFO’s***

14/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

1NC – North Carolina Economy DA
(A) Uniqueness – North Carolina econ high UNCC 08
(“Economist Expects State’s Economy to Grow in 2008, Despite Lags at National Level,” UNC Charlotte) The North Carolina economy is expected to continue its seventh year of economic expansion in 2008, according to UNC Charlotte economist John E. Connaughton, who released his quarterly forecast for the state today

(B) Link – subsidies key to North Carolina economy Missouri Rural Crisis Center 05
(“The facts abut CAFOs” http://www.inmotionmagazine.com/ra05/mlc3_05.html) It matters who is producing the Livestock: corporate controlled livestock factories or independent family farms who spend their $’s locally, create jobs and know how to be good neighbors.A Missouri study found that corporate contract operations create a net loss of employment. While creating 9 jobs for every 12,000 hogs produced, corporate contract operations displace 28 jobs. When comparing an equal number of sows on corporate contract operations versus family farms, the family farm system creates: 10% more permanent jobs, a 20% larger increase in local retail sales and a 37% larger increase in local income per capita. The number of farmers raising hogs is more important than the number of hogs being produced. Corporate concentration in the hog industry does not benefit consumers or independent producers. In the last 15 years, hog numbers in Missouri have stayed the same (2,700,000), while the number of hog farmers has decreased 85% from 15,000 to 2,200. From 1985-2005, the retail price of pork increased 75% from $1.62 to $2.83. During the same period, the hog producers’ share of the retail dollar decreased 30% from $.44 to $.31. Comparing a CAFO County to a Health Ordinance Protected County: From 1996 to June 2006, the unemployment rate in Linn County decreased by 0.6% while the unemployment rate in neighboring Sullivan County increased by nearly 2.0%. Since Linn County enacted its health ordinance in 1997, it’s general revenue sales tax has increased 22%--without raising taxes. In comparison, according to the Sullivan County Clerk, “the financial condition of the county continues to decline at an alarming pace. If our sales tax revenues don’t recover soon, our 2006 budget will be doomed.” CAFOs do not translate into Grain Production for Local Communities: A comparison between the three counties that produce the most CAFO hogs and three counties that have two or fewer CAFOs shows an increase in grain production in the non-CAFO counties of 6.21 million bushels while the CAFO counties show a decrease in grain production by 2.94 million bushels between 1985 and 2004.

(C) Impacts – North Carolina economy key to US econ Goodman 07
(Peter S. “In N.C. A Second Industrial Revolution,” Washington Post, September 3) Until the late 1950s, the low-slung brick building in the center of this minuscule town was home to the Kayser-Roth hosiery mill. Some 400 workers tended to clattering looms, churning out pantyhose. "It was the best employer in town," said Nancy May, a former worker. The hosiery mill is gone now, along with much of the Carolina textile industry -- a casualty of the global reordering that has concentrated production in Asia and Latin America. But the old brick building is still here and still making products -- albeit modern varieties that could scarcely have been imagined a half-century ago: Today, the site is occupied by a biotechnology company, Biolex Therapeutics. Inside, 90 workers harness expensive laboratory equipment and a plant called duckweed, a bane to local ponds, to develop a drug for a serious liver ailment. Even the lowest-paid lab technician takes home far more than the seamstresses earned. If the start-up succeeds, its product will be substantially more lucrative than pantyhose. As lawmakers pursue legislation aimed at softening the blow from factory closures, and as the downside of trade emerges as a talking point in the 2008 presidential campaign, it might seem that manufacturing is a dying part of the U.S. economy. But the retooling of this old brick building on Credle Street underscores how, despite its oft-pronounced demise, American manufacturing is in many regards stronger than ever. The United States makes more manufactured goods today than at any time in history, as measured by the dollar value of production adjusted for inflation -- three times as much as in the mid-1950s, the supposed heyday of American industry. Between 1977 and 2005, the value of American manufacturing swelled from $1.3 trillion to an all-time record $4.5 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. With less than 5 percent of the world's population, the United States is responsible for almost one-fourth of global manufacturing, a share that has changed little in decades. The United States is the largest manufacturing economy by far. Japan, the only serious rival for that title, has been losing ground.

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

China has been growing but represents only about one-tenth of world manufacturing. But if the big picture is brighter than many realize, American manufacturing is nevertheless undergoing fundamental change that is exerting enormous pressure on workers. Imports are rising, now representing a third of all manufactured goods consumed in the country, up from 10 percent in the 1970s. American exports are rising even faster than imports, but companies face intense price competition, with China, India, Brazil and dozens of other low-wage countries now part of a global marketplace for labor and materials. Manufacturers are redesigning production lines to make them more efficient, substituting machinery for people wherever possible. So while American manufacturing is not declining, manufacturing employment has been shrinking dramatically. After peaking in 1979 at 19 million workers, the American manufacturing workforce has since dropped to 14 million, the lowest number since 1950. A stark educational divide has emerged on the factory floor, as skills and training separate winners from losers. In 1973, more than half of all American manufacturing workers failed to complete high school, and only 6 percent attended some college, according to the National Association of Manufacturers. By 2001, nearly half completed high school and one-fourth attended some college. North Carolina encapsulates the forces remaking American manufacturing. Between 2002 and 2005, the state lost 72,000 manufacturing jobs, about three-fourths in textiles, furniture-making and electronics, according to the North Carolina Commission on Workforce Development. At the same time, the state has become a rising powerhouse in lucrative new manufacturing sectors such as biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and sophisticated textiles.

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

*** AFF*** North Carolina

17/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness – North Carolina Econ Low
Econ low UNCC 08
(“Economist Expects State’s Economy to Grow in 2008, Despite Lags at National Level,” UNC Charlotte) Connaughton is optimistic for the state overall, in spite of several areas of concern. “Both rising energy prices and subprime credit problem have affected consumer behavior,” he said. “Rising gasoline prices are taking income out of consumer’s pockets and slowing purchases in other sectors, and the sub-prime credit scare is negatively affecting consumer’s confidence to purchase big-ticket items,” he added. “These two factors together slowed the North Carolina economy during 2007 and are likely to continue to be a problem into 2008.” Nevertheless, Connaughton expects the real, inflation adjusted Gross State Product (GSP) to increase by 2.2 percent over the 2007 level. By quarter, Connaughton predicts that GSP will increase by an annualized real growth rate of 2.9 percent in the first quarter and 3.3 percent in the second quarter. He expects GSP growth to drop off in the third quarter to 2.5 percent but anticipates a rebound in the fourth quarter, with an annualized real rate of 3.0 percent.

18/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

*** AFF*** California

19/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness – Cali Econ Low
Econ low Zuckerman 07
(Sam, staff writer, “Reports predict dismal year for California economy,” San Fran Chronicle, December 6) California's economy will turn ugly in the year ahead as the housing crunch takes a big bite out of jobs and widens the state budget deficit, two new reports project.The quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts the state will barely avoid recession, with non-farm jobs growing just 0.5 percent in 2008, down from 1.3 percent this year. The unemployment rate will rise to 6.1 percent by the second half of next year and remain at that elevated level for most of 2009, according to UCLA.

20/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

***AFF *** Florida

21/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness – Florida Econ Low
Florida’s Economy low- weather, housing, lack of energy growth Tampa Bay Business Journal ,07/31,08, Tampa Bay Business Journal
(http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/stories/2008/07/28/daily45.html) TECO Energy Inc. said second quarter net income was $51.4 million, or 24 cents a share, compared to $73.7 million, or 35 cents a share, in the second quarter of 2007. Revenue for the three months ended June 30 was $887.2 million, compared to $866.5 million in the same period a year earlier. The results for the quarter reflect benefits of the TECO Energy debt retirements, Sherrill Hudson, chairman and chief executive, said in a release. TECO Guatemala produced strong results, he said. Earnings from TECO Coal were lower than expected due to production costs impacting the entire industry, but Hudson said the prices in new sales contract will drive growth in earnings from the coal business next year. “Our Florida utilities benefited from better weather than last year, but the continued weak Florida economy and housing market limited customer and energy sales growth. Various forecasts earlier in the year indicated that the housing market was expected to bottom out in 2008, but the credit and housing issues appear to be deeper and more protracted than were forecast even a few months ago,” Hudson said. Tampa Electric, the company’s principal subsidiary, posted net income for the second quarter of $40.2 million, compared with $34.7 million for the same period in 2007, according to the release. TECO Energy also reduced its earnings guidance for the rest of 2008. The company now said it expects 2008 earnings from continuing operations to be in a range between 80 cents and 90 cents a share, down from the earlier outlook in a range of 95 cents to $1.10 a share. TECO Energy (NYSE: TE), based in Tampa, is an energy-related holding company.

Housing market is down because weak economy Susan R. Miller, 07/29/08, South Florida Business Journal, Associate Director, Information Services and Systems
(http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2008/07/28/daily21.html?q=Florida%20economy) The news remains grim for South Florida’s housing market, with numerous factors in play that continue to stave off a recovery in sales of new and existing homes. A week economy, higher energy prices and bad news coming from financial markets are keeping potential buyers at bay, according to a report released Tuesday by Metrostudy. “While builder cutbacks and discounted pricing are having an effect on reducing the inventory of homes, the tightening of credit standards has removed a sizable number of formerly qualified buyers from the market, and the uncertainty surrounding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac represents additional financial market problems,” said Mike Inselmann, president of Metrostudy, a national housing tracking and consulting company. Although the number of new homes being built continues to decline, the supply of finished vacant homes remained at a record 6.1 months as the annual pace of move-ins slowed, according to the study. Quarterly housing starts for Miami-Dade County dropped from 384 units in the first quarter of the year to 277 in the second quarter. Miami-Dade has an 11.3-month supply of total inventory. Meantime, the supply of finished vacant single-family homes in Broward County subdivisions increased for the seventh consecutive quarter, from 1,131 during the first quarter to 1,229 during the second quarter – the highest number in at least a decade. This represents a 7.6-month supply of homes on the market. In Palm Beach County, the number of vacant homes fell from 1,236 at the end of the first quarter to 1,015 at the end of the second quarter, a 4.4-month supply. But the news is not all grim, Inselmann noted. “As these issues run their cycle, demographic trends keep marching forward, creating a pool of potential buyers who will express themselves in the market when credit normalcy and calmer consumer psychology return, setting the stage for a decade of strong housing demand in the United States,” he said. “It’s a matter of when, not if.”

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness – Florida Econ Low
Florida’s economy low
Adrian Burns, 07/25/08, Business First of Columbus, (http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/07/28/story4.html?q=Florida%20economy) A market that once seemed like a banker's Valhalla for its fountain of growth is instead weighing heavily on the Ohio banks that ventured there. A line of Midwestern banks in recent years traveled to Florida in an effort to tap the state's red-hot real estate market and robust economic growth. But the housing market there has turned ice cold and the state's economy has declined with it - woes that are wreaking havoc for the banks that once had high hopes for their forays. Park National Corp. operated primarily in Ohio for decades and was known for miniscule loan losses and strong performance. But the Newarkbased bank's loan losses have soared - and earnings have gone downhill - since it acquired Vision Bancshares Inc. of Panama City, Fla., in March of last year.

Florida economy is down
Greg Allen, 07/30/08, NPR, (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93081828) The economic downturn is taking a toll on the boating industry in Florida. With high fuel prices and expensive boat payments, many Floridians are finding it harder to use, sell — and keep — their boats. Take Black Point Marina, south of Miami on Biscayne Bay. Marina officials say as fuel prices have risen, traffic here has gotten lighter. For boater Hank Banalewicz, fuel costs about twice as much as last summer. On a recent morning, he says it cost him $250 to take out a boat. Last year, when gas was cheaper, it cost about $100 or $120. "Oh, it's totally ridiculous," he says. And as for boat traffic on the water? "Hardly any boats . . . at all," he says. Banalewicz says he takes his boat out less frequently now, and when he does, he uses it differently. He cruises less and anchors more. That's the story in Florida — and also in Michigan, California and other places where boating is big. According to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, the state has more than a million registered vessels — one boat for every 18 people. Von Skinner, a boat dealer who owns the Cozy Cove Marina near Fort Lauderdale, Fla., says the cost of fuel is also now becoming an issue with boat buyers. "Two years ago, no one even asked how much fuel it burns — just how fast does it go, how many engines can I put on there?" Skinner says. "Now, of course, people are starting to think more fuel economy. The speed ain't as important."

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Florida Economy – Link Turns
Plan saves money Bovard 98
(James, author of Lost Rights: The Destruction of American Liberty, “The Great Sugar Shaft,” The Future of Freedom Foundation,” April) Since 1980, the sugar program has cost consumers and taxpayers the equivalent of more than $3 million for each American sugar grower. Some people win the lottery; other people grow sugar. Congressmen justify the sugar program as protecting Americans from the "roller-coaster of international sugar prices," as Rep. Byron Dorgan (D.-N.D.) declared. Unfortunately, Congress protects consumers from the roller-coaster by pegging American sugar prices on a level with the Goodyear blimp floating far above the amusement park. U.S. sugar prices have been as high as or higher than world prices for 44 of the last 45 years.

Saves money Griswold et al 06
(Daniel, Christopher Preble, and Stephen Slivinski, “Six Reasons to Kill Farm Subsidies and Trade Barriers,” Reason.com) Domestic sugar protection has maintained a concentration of producers in central Florida who have used up water from the endangered Florida Everglades while spitting back phosphorous content far above the level consistent with maintaining the surrounding ecosystem. The high runoff has seriously reduced periphyton, such as algae, that supports birds and other animal life. Congress has spent billions to repair the damage caused to the Everglades by the protected sugar industry. Farm programs also waste scarce water resources, especially in the arid West. Agricultural water subsidies alone amount to around $2 billion annually, propping up such uneconomical enterprises as growing cotton in the Arizona desert.

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

*** AFF*** Massachusetts

25/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness – Massachusetts Econ Low
Econ low Gavin 08
(Robert T. “State far outpacing US economy, report says,” The Boston Globe, April 30) Nonetheless, consumers are struggling, UMass analysts said. Falling home values combined with rising food and fuel costs are hurting confidence and spending. Consumer sectors, such as retail, are losing jobs. Retail employment has declined about 1 percent over the last year, according to state figures. And continued weakness in housing and consumer spending will slow the state's economic growth to an annual rate of about 2.5 percent over the next six months, according to UMass. At that rate of expansion, employment growth is likely to stall or decline, said Alan Clayton-Matthews, the UMass-Boston professor who calculates the state economic growth rates.

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Link Turns - Cotton
Plan saves money Chapman et al 06
(Dan, Ken Foskett, and Megan Clarke, “How savvy growers can double, or triple, subsidy dollars,” The Atlanta JournalConstitution, October 2) Total paid to these 195 recipients: $353 million. The biggest check: $15.8 million to Riceland Foods of Arkansas, a cooperative of 9,000 rice farmers. Circumventing limits -- $180,000 for an individual -- results in higher payouts to larger growers, who can use the payments to leverage bigger loans to grow more crops. But smaller growers are placed at a competitive disadvantage by a program once intended to keep them from losing their land.

27/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

*** AFF*** North Dakota

28/31

Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness – North Dakota Econ Low
North Dakota econ low Creighton University 08
(“Rural Mainstreet Economy Declines to Record Low,” May 15, www2.creighton.edu/publicrelations/newscenter/news/2008/may2008/may152008/rural_mainstreet_goss_051508/index.p hp) The RMI for North Dakota advanced to a healthy 56.6 from April’s 50.1 and March’s 50.5. However, retail sales were a weak 36.4 for May, reflecting what some see as a trend. Scott Tewksbury, CEO of Heartland State Bank in Edgeley, sees large-scale farming operations doing less business locally. “The ban on corporate farming has not kept farm operations from growing to large-scale size that may do less business with the Mainstreet economy. The ban has hampered financing efforts for large-scale, capital-intensive livestock operations in the state that could have added to the local economic base.”

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

***AFF *** Arkansas

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Arizona Debate Institute 2008
State Economy DAs non-Iowa

Fellows

Uniqueness – Arkansas Econ Low
Arkansas economy low Associated Press 08
(“Current Economy Affecting Farmers,” July 22, www.4029tv.com) The rising cost of everything from fuel to feed is costing farmers big profits, so much so that it’s forcing some out of business. Arkansas farmers filled a Springdale convention center to talk about their trade. “We raise half a million chickens a year and 100 hundred head of cattle," said Kenny Womack who owns a farm in east Arkansas. Womack said he came to the meeting to learn more about the current economy of the industry. From fuel to run tractors, to feed, prices are on the rise and profits are down. Womack says it’s leaving some farmers with a tough choice. "Go out of business or file bankruptcy,” said Womack. The price to sell a head of cattle is down 25 to 30 cents a pound from last year. "Thirty cents on a 600-pound calf, that's 150 less per calf," said Womack. Agriculture economists say it may be a rough road for a while for farmers for a while, but not forever. "We feel like we're in a temporary situation. Live stock numbers will go up, producers will catch up and corn prices will go down and hopefully people will have a pretty decent shot at making money every year," said economist Jim Sartwelle.

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