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SDI 2008 p.

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AT K Ecofem..................................................................................................................................2
AT K Biopower...............................................................................................................................4
AT K Biopower – Risk of nuclear war is decreasing extensions................................................9
AT DA Politics they say “DADT good”......................................................................................10
AT DA Politics they say “DADT good” – Terrorism extensions..............................................12
AT DA Politics they say “DADT bad”........................................................................................13
AT DA Japanese competitiveness...............................................................................................15
AT DA Japanese competitiveness - Japanese economy decreasing now extensions...............16
AT DA CFTA................................................................................................................................17
AT DA CFTA Pelosi extensions...................................................................................................18
AT DA CFTA Elections extensions.............................................................................................19
AT DA CFTA- Won’t Pass...........................................................................................................20
AT DA CFTA- Will Pass..............................................................................................................21
AT DA Congressional Elections- Dems Win..............................................................................22
AT DA Congressional Elections General...................................................................................23
AT DA India Deal.........................................................................................................................24
AT DA India Deal IAEA/NSG extensions..................................................................................25
AT DA India Deal - No Time extensions....................................................................................26
AT DA India Deal- Will Pass.......................................................................................................27
AT DA Spending...........................................................................................................................28
AT DA Business Confidence........................................................................................................29
SDI 2008 p. 2 of 29
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AT K Ecofem
No link - The plan establishes a permanent waste repository and allows interim dry cask
storage. They don’t have a specific link to either of those actions.

No link – links of omission should be rejected on face. There are a host of other problems in
the world that we didn’t mention that doesn’t prove that we hurt or help those issues.

Perm – do the plan and all non mutually exclusive components of their

BALIUNAS ’99 (Sallie, “Extremes of Ecofeminism”,
It is difficult for a scientist to breech the basic level of disagreement between science and ecofeminism:
the material Universe does not have the ability to care whether or not humans get the laws of physics
right, or whether we even know that such rules exist. 7 The structure and evolution of Homo Sapiens,
including our capacity for thought, is the result of a dynamic, physical process responding to the
environment. Ecofeminism is wrong when it asserts that the ability to reason is antithetical to nature.
Human intelligence arose out of natural processes. During the late Pleistocene, in a struggle for survival
against the harsh conditions of the last major ice age, the cerebral cortex of the human brain increased
dramatically in size, improving the capacity for intelligence to a degree not seen previously in hominid
evolution. This means that the environment, and natural selection, produced the major development in
human intelligence from which arose the ability to do science. Intelligence is an extraordinarily useful
trait for a species in a changing environment.

Our aff is a da to the alternative – only increasing nuclear power can stop new coal power
plants. The impact to that is four extinction scenarios.

Turn - Modern science is key to reducing the risk of extinction.

SIDY ’02 (Richard, Science, Religion, and the Search for God: Bridging the Gap)
Scientific awareness is expanding to the point where the most advanced scientists stand in humble awe
before an ever-growing view of the Universe. In searching for the origin and laws of matter, energy, and life,
scientists are crossing the threshold from the visible world of matter into the invisible world of energy. They
are beginning to develop instruments sensitive to even the subtlest of invisible energies. When science
applies its research to the benefit of humanity, there will be greater enlightenment. Rather than spending
millions on research to serve materialistic purposes, such scientists may eventually investigate the spiritual
causes behind existence. This will broaden the approach of medical science and change people's attitudes
towards birth, life and death.
New scientific research will make spiritual truths knowable and remove ignorance, fear, and doubt from
people's minds. Scientists who are in awe of existence will develop more responsibility in the application of
their knowledge. No longer will they use science for war, for greed, or for activities which poison the earth.
On the contrary, scientists of conscience do work, and will continue to work to solve the problems of our
earth in order to restore health and well-being to our planet. Such science will be an essential tool in man's
spiritual search for meaning in life.
SDI 2008 p. 3 of 29
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BALIUNAS ’99 (Sallie, “Extremes of Ecofeminism”,
The knowledge gained in understanding the environment has led to the ability to alleviate some pain,
suffering, and death. Through science and technology endemic diseases like malaria, and dengue and
yellow fever have been essentially eradicated in the Western world. Yet in Africa, malaria kills several
million people a year, many of them children. The main cause of premature death in the developing world is
preventable infectious diseases. The reasons these largely preventable deaths are still occurring are several,
including economic, social, and cultural ones. Adopting an extremist ideology that denies the ability of
science to discern facts will not help to remove those barriers to applying the technology to save those
lives. Ignorance, as always, is a cruel ideology.

Turn – even ecofeminists believe we need to do something about global warming. This is a
net benefit to our perm.
BALIUNAS ’99 (Sallie, “Extremes of Ecofeminism”,
To be sure, environmental problems caused by humans have existed since hominids first walked upright and
began manipulating the environment with their intelligence and tool-making abilities. Ecofeminists work
from the belief that humans now have the capacity to alter destructively the earth’s environment. They
believe catastrophic global warming is one realistic scenario, requiring emergency and feminist passion.
While storytelling and mythmaking are different realizations of the intellectual capacity to do science,
they are not useful substitutes for it. In the case of increased carbon dioxide and its possible impact of
catastrophic warming, science does have some good news. First, the computer simulations of the climate
predict gradual warming over the next 100 years. Evidence has rapidly accumulated (e.g., the global lower
tropospheric temperature measurements made by satellites and balloons, or the Arctic temperature records)
that the future warming will be much slower and of smaller magnitude than predicted, because the early
effects of warming, which should be discernible, have not yet emerged. That leaves a period of several
decades in which to study cost-effective mitigation, adaptation, and alternative energy sources (e.g., fission
and fusion) without incurring any significant, future penalty in temperature rise. Here the Precautionary
Principle (by which an activity must not be allowed unless it is unequivocally proven safe for the
environment), a non-scientific principle, enters in the political and social debate. Science is used to put the
threat of global warming on the negotiating table (the hypothesis is that projected increases in carbon
dioxide will cause catastrophic global warming), then forbidden to define further the problem. ("We know
enough and must not take any risks with the earth!") The essential element of open controversy in scientific
explorations has been disallowed. Such ideas have led to the Kyoto agreement. Scientists agree that the
emission cuts it asks for, though substantial, are far too small to avert any significant amount of the projected
global warming, and that the computer simulations that project the warming fail scientific validation. It is
refreshing to hear the honesty in the comment of Canada’s environment minister on the Kyoto agreement,
"Even if the science is all phoney, there are collateral environmental benefits."8 Even if those benefits,
without science, cannot be defined.
SDI 2008 p. 4 of 29
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AT K Biopower
Identification of biopolitics doesn’t mandate rejection – individual consequences should be

Perm do the plan and all non-mutually exclusive parts of their alternative.

The perm is net beneficial - the evidence we just read said we need to assess individual
consequences which means you can weigh the advantage to the aff in the interim as we
transition to their alternative. Any risk of one of our massive 1ac impacts during the
transition is a reason to vote affirmative.
SDI 2008 p. 5 of 29
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Their impacts are empirically denied – biopower has been increasing but the risk of
nuclear war has substantially decreased.

Biopolitics aren’t intrinsically genocidal—it is circumstance, not biopower, which enabled

the Holocaust—in fact, strengthening current democratic structures checks genocide
O’Kane 97 (Rosemary, Modernity, the Holocaust and politics, Economy and Society, 26:1, p 43-6, AG)

Modern bureaucracy is not 'intrinsically capable of genocidal action' (Bauman 1989: 106). Centralized state coercion has
no natural move to terror. In the explanation of modern genocides it is chosen policies which play the greatest part, whether
in effecting bureaucratic secrecy, organizing forced labour, implementing a system of terror, harnessing science and technology or introducing
extermination policies, as means and as ends. As Nazi Germany and Stalin's USSR have shown, furthermore, those chosen policies
of genocidal government turned away from and not towards modernity. The choosing of policies, however, is not
independent of circumstances. An analysis of the history of each case plays an important part in explaining where and how genocidal
governments come to power and analysis of political institutions and structures also helps towards an understanding of the factors which act as
obstacles to modern genocide. But it is not just political factors which stand in the way of another Holocaust in modern society.
Modern societies have not only pluralist democratic political systems but also economic pluralism where workers
are free to change jobs and bargain wages and where independent firms, each with their own independent bureaucracies, exist in
competition with state-controlled enterprises. In modern societies this economic pluralism both promotes and is served by the open
scientific method. By ignoring competition and the capacity for people to move between organizations whether economic, political, scientific or
social, Bauman overlooks crucial but also very 'ordinary and common' attributes of truly modern societies. It is these very ordinary and
common attributes of modernity which stand in the way of modern genocides.
SDI 2008 p. 6 of 29
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It is theoretically and practically inconceivable to improve things without transforming

state power.
SDI 2008 p. 7 of 29
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Turn - the plan’s intervention opens up the possibility of the kritik.

SDI 2008 p. 8 of 29
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Deconstruction alone fails.

Hardt, Assoc. Prof of Literature at Duke, and Negri, formerly Lecturer in Political Science at the University
of Paris, ’00 (Michael and Antonio, Empire, p. 216 , DJW)
SDI 2008 p. 9 of 29
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AT K Biopower – Risk of nuclear war is decreasing extensions

Risk of nuclear war has substantially decreased.
Clinton ’96 (Hillary, Journal of Commerce, July 10, twmh , p. 7A)

For 50 years, a cruel and arbitrary line divided Europe. On one side of that line, people came together to contain the
threat of Communism moving West. On the other side, tyranny and domination forced people to exchange their
freedom for the false promise of a utopian ideal and a distorted sense of social stability. Today, the Berlin Wall, as
we know, is gone. There is no Iron Curtain. The line has been erased. In country after country, Communism has
crumbled; democracy has come alive. The threat of nuclear war no longer hovers over us.

U.S. leadership is responsible for significantly reducing the greatest threat of nuclear war.
Rosenfeld ’90 (Stephen, Washington Post, Oct. 5, twmh , p. A25)

In the official view -- the right view -- unification triumphantly caps the end of the division of Europe into Cold
War blocs, the rededication of a country and a continent on the basis of democracy, the free market and
mutual security, and the reduction of Soviet-American tensions of which the greatest was the threat of nuclear
war. That all this happened peacefully and in tandem with the Soviet Union but under American leadership -- the
leadership of the past decade and the past four decades -- is cause for pride and rejoicing.
SDI 2008 p. 10 of 29
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AT DA Politics they say “DADT good”

DADT leads to the collapse of the US’s soft power.
Lau, Professor at the University of Chicago, 04 (Holning, 71 U. Chi. L. Rev. 1689, p. 1709 bmk)

The United States creates a double standard by resorting to cultural relativism on sexual orientation rights. In his
article, On American Exceptionalism, Harold Hongju Koh notes that double standards are a type of exceptionalism
that is not new to American foreign policy. n127 What are the consequences of such American exceptionalism?
Scholars have asserted that American exceptionalism compromises the United States's soft powers. n128 By
reducing American credibility, [*1709] exceptionalism compromises the United States's soft power to conduct
diplomacy. There has been a trend, however, among human rights scholars and practitioners to look beyond these
soft effects to the transnational legal consequences of American exceptionalism. For example, human rights
advocates have challenged the American treatment of Guantanamo Bay detainees through litigation in American
courts, n129 British courts, n130 and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. n131

U.S. soft power solves and prevents global conflicts – empirically

Nye and Armitage in 07 (Richard L. Armitage and Joseph S. Nye Jr., Dec. 9, 07, Stop Getting Mad,
America. Get Smart., The Washington Post, Lexis Nexis)
In a changing world, the United States should become a smarter power by once again investing in the global good
-- by providing things that people and governments want but cannot attain without U.S. leadership. By
complementing U.S. military and economic strength with greater investments in soft power, Washington can
build the framework to tackle tough global challenges. We call this smart power.
Smart power is not about getting the world to like us. It is about developing a strategy that balances our hard
(coercive) power with our soft (attractive) power. During the Cold War, the United States deterred Soviet aggression
through investments in hard power. But as Gates noted late last month, U.S. leaders also realized that "the nature of
the conflict required us to develop key capabilities and institutions -- many of them non-military." So the United
States used its soft power to rebuild Europe and Japan and to establish the norms and institutions that became the
core of the international order for the past half-century. The Cold War ended under a barrage of hammers on the
Berlin Wall rather than a barrage of artillery across the Fulda Gap precisely because of this integrated approach.

DADT causes shortages of translators in military undermining the war on terrorism

USA Today, February 13, 2006, (“Arab Speakers Still Scarce”, Lexis, mm)

Hoping to make a difference in the world (and perhaps sensing the prospect of likely employment), U.S. students are
flocking to newly formed Arabic classes on high school and college campuses. Enrolling is the easy part. First, the
students learn that Arabic text reads from right to left but that numbers flow from left to right. Letters change form,
depending on where they are placed in a word. Some sounds have no English equivalent. And then the really hard
part sinks in. Classical Arabic, which is what's generally taught in U.S. classrooms, is the equivalent of Medieval
English. It's fine for literature and diplomacy but virtually useless on the streets of Cairo. And Egyptian colloquial
Arabic differs from other colloquial Arabic tongues. It's no wonder the dropout rate is so high. In the best programs,
only 25% of first-year students reach the third-year level. In a majority of college programs, students have no choice
but to stop after the first year because their university doesn't offer a second year. The persistence of such problems
four years after the 9/11 attacks is one measure both of the difficulty of the challenge and of the nation's sluggish
response to it. There are many others. In Iraq, the military lacks American translators, forcing reliance on foreigners.
At home, an inspector general reported last year that thousands of hours of intelligence tapes remain untranslated.
The military, the FBI and the CIA all have sharply increased recruiting of people who speak the languages used on
those tapes, but the supply falls far short of the need, particularly for the most-skilled linguists. At the State
Department, for instance, only 10 of 34,000 employees are rated fully fluent in Arabic. In his recent budget,
President Bush proposed an initiative to address the shortfall by jump-starting training in such critical languages as
Arabic, Farsi, Hindi and Urdu. The $114 million program would fund experiments in language instruction and
study-abroad opportunities for up to 3,000 high school students. It would pay for 300 teachers to come to the USA
and study-abroad opportunities for high-school language teachers. It also would create a corps of 1,000 experts in
critical languages to assist the federal government or teach in K-12 schools. The goal is to produce 2,000 advanced
speakers of critical languages by 2009. That's a start, if a belated one. When no one is available to translate
SDI 2008 p. 11 of 29
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intercepted terrorist communications, you have to wonder whether the war on terrorism can be won.

Terrorism risks extinction

Yonah Alexander 8/25/03 (professor and director of the Inter-University for Terrorism Studies in Israel and the
United States, The Washington Times,
Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically
that the international community failed, thus far at least, to understand the magnitude and implications of
the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. Even the United States and Israel have for
decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic
challenge to their national security concerns. It is not surprising, therefore, that on September 11, 2001,
Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating
blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. Likewise, Israel and its citizens, despite
the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second
intifada that began almost three years ago, are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive
diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire
arrangements (hudna). Why are the United States and Israel, as well as scores of other countries affected
by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many
reasons, including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's
expansion, such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism, the religionization of politics, double
standards of morality, weak punishment of terrorists, and the exploitation of the media by terrorist
propaganda and psychological warfare. Unlike their historical counterparts, contemporary terrorists have
introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. The
internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age
of Super Terrorism (e.g. biological, chemical, radiological, nuclear and cyber) with its serious implications
concerning national, regional and global security concerns.
SDI 2008 p. 12 of 29
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AT DA Politics they say “DADT good” – Terrorism extensions

DADT kicks people out who serve in critical positions.
Bender, ’06 (Brian, “Military Retaining More Gay Soldiers”, July 19, 2006, p. l/n, ncv)

Recent studies have shown that many soldiers dismissed in past years under "don't ask, don't tell" tended to be in
highly trained specialties now in demand, including linguists and medical technicians.

DADT results in reductions in translators and intelligence operators.

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’06 (Undesirable Army: Shortfalls Allow the Entry of Hate-Filled Recruits, July 19, 2006,
p. l/n, ncv)

Homosexuals in the military have long had to deal with a "don't ask, don't tell" policy. Gays and lesbians are shown
the door the second their sexual orientation is known. The military has been consistently ruthless in this regard, even
when it meant thinning the ranks of capable translators and intelligence operators for an inconsequential factor like
sexual identity.

The Miitary has discharged translators for violating DADT. This hurts the already
devastating shortage of military linguistics needed to fight the war on terror.
New York Times, January 14. 2005, (John Files, “National Briefing, Gay Linguists Dismissed from Military”,
Lexus, mm)

The military has discharged 20 service personnel who spoke or had studied Arabic for being gay since 1998,
according to new data from the Pentagon. Gay rights advocates argue that the dismissals run counter to a critical
shortage of translators and interpreters needed for the war on terrorism. Pentagon officials had previously reported
that nine Army linguists, including six trained in Arabic, had been discharged under the military's ''don't ask, don't
tell'' policy from the Defense Language Institute in Monterey, Calif. John Files (NYT)

The dispachment of translators who violate DADT hurts the military.

Washington Times, December 3, 2003, (Anne Hull, “How ‘Don’t Tell’ Translates: The Military Needs Linguists.
But It Doesn’t Want This One”, Lexus, mm)

In the past two years, the Department of Defense has discharged 37 linguists from the Defense Language Institute
for being gay. Like Glover, many studied Arabic. At a time of heightened need for intelligence specialists, 37
linguists were rendered useless because of their homosexuality.
SDI 2008 p. 13 of 29
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AT DA Politics they say “DADT bad”

no link – their link is about nuclear power not about waste disposal.

turn - Yucca is very unpopular.

Jim Green, National nuclear campaigner - Friends of the Earth, Australia, 2007-05-29, “US-led Global Nuclear
Energy Partnership”, jlk,
RADIOACTIVE WASTE Establishing interim storage and permanent disposal facilities for nuclear
waste has been a protracted and controversial issue in the US and it is a long way from resolution. The
waste management problems could jeopardise plans to build new reactors. The US House Committee (2006)
questions whether the Nuclear Regulatory Commission would licence new reactors in the absence of a clear
disposal path for spent fuel, and notes that DOE's response is to seek legislation eliminating the availability
of disposal space in a permanent repository as a consideration for the NRC in licensing new reactors. The
Committee argues that attempting to "legislate away" the waste problem is not a responsible course of action.
The estimated opening date for the Yucca Mountain repository in Nevada has been pushed back to
2017 — initially it was planned to be in operation in 1998. The US House Committee (2006) notes that
DOE's latest plan for Yucca Mountain envisages a license application for construction being filed in
fiscal year 2008, construction starting three to four years later and disposal of commercial spent fuel
sometime near the end of the next decade. This is a seven-year delay from the schedule just two years
ago, the Committee notes. In other words, Yucca Mountain is not drawing closer but receding into the

Nuclear power is still a hot button issue.

Waste News, 10-1-07, Revisiting the nuke debate, lexis, bc
It's back! After some 30 years, applications have been made for two new nuclear power plants in the United
States. And that likely will heat up the nuclear power debate. NRG Energy is seeking to build two new
facilities in Texas, the first serious attempt at new nuclear power operations since the infamous
accident at Three Mile Island in 1979. Time only has slightly cooled nuclear power as a hot button
topic since then.

The trend is that McCain will go ahead of Obama soon. He is already ahead in Colorado
and is gaining in every swing state. Introducing the plan can only disrupt his momentum.
McClatchy Washington Beurau, byline Steven Thomma, 7/25/08, “Obama wins the week but McCain’s
still in the race,” MH
The Arizona Republican went to the battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, dominating local
news coverage and talking about gas prices, an issue mentioned in local coffee shops much more than
Obama's trip. Polls show Obama with an edge, but the contest still very close. In surveys of
battleground states taken just before Obama's trip and during its first days, Quinnipiac University
found McCain gaining on him in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin and pulling narrowly ahead in
Colorado. "The race is tightening," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Connecticut University's
Polling Institute. "McCain's doing a little better because Obama's post-primary bounce is wearing off."
SDI 2008 p. 14 of 29
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McCain is winning Nevada by a narrow margin now and Nevada is a key battle ground
state vital to the election.
Las Vegas Review Journal, byline Molly Ball, 6/17/08, “New R-J Nevada Poll: McCain 44%, Obama
42%,” MH
As the presidential candidates square off for the general election, Nevadans are closely divided between
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, according to a statewide poll. If the election
were held today, 44 percent would vote for McCain, 42 percent for Obama, while 14 percent of likely
voters remain undecided, according to the poll of 625 likely voters, conducted Monday through Wednesday
by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for the Review-Journal and The presidential contest is well within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4
percentage points. It confirms the conventional wisdom that Nevada is a swing state that might throw its
electoral votes to either candidate in November. "It's a statistical tie. It's a toss-up," said pollster Brad
Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon. "Nevada is a battleground. It's clearly a state both candidates,
both campaigns, both parties are going to pay a lot of attention to.

Yucca mountain is a key issue for Nevada voters – they oppose it strongly
Las Vegas Review-Journal, Nov. 28, 2007, “Poll finds Nevada voters strongly oppose Yucca, Survey shows
76 percent are against nuclear waste project”, JaretLK, ellipses in original
RENO -- Nevada voters remain overwhelmingly opposed to federal plans to store the nation's nuclear
waste at Yucca Mountain, according to a statewide poll published Tuesday. The survey of 600 likely
Nevada voters conducted for the Reno Gazette-Journal found that 76 percent oppose the project and 57
percent say the issue will be important in making their choice for president. The survey also found that
opposition to the project crosses party lines, but Democrats think it's a more important issue in the
presidential election than Republicans. Seventy-four percent of Democrats said the issue is important
to them in the presidential race, compared with 38 percent of Republicans. The poll was conducted
Nov. 16-19 by Maryland-based Research 2000. The margin of error is 4 percent. "From a national
perspective, any campaign that wants to win the hearts and minds of Nevada voters has to be prepared
to talk about long-term radioactive storage," said GOP strategist Greg Ferraro of Reno. "These numbers
will also force the candidates to look at alternatives for the waste." Yucca Mountain has gained more
attention from presidential candidates since Nevada moved up its presidential caucuses to Jan. 19,
following Iowa on Jan. 3 and the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8. Nevada's congressional delegation is
adamantly opposed to the project. Congress in 2002 picked the Yucca Mountain site about 100 miles
northwest of Las Vegas to entomb 77,000 tons of spent nuclear reactor fuel. Political analysts said the issue's
importance in presidential elections has been questionable. They cite President Bush's ability to carry Nevada
in 2004, despite his support of the Yucca Mountain site. "Yucca Mountain is not going to swing it for them
from one candidate to another," said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada,
Reno. "Among Democrats, this is a far more salient issue. There is no nuance allowed. ... Republicans,
even those who are opposed to Yucca Mountain, are not as adamant as are the Democrats," he said.
Every Democratic presidential candidate has come out against Yucca Mountain, but Rep. Ron Paul is the
only Republican candidate to come out strongly against it. The Department of Energy is preparing a license
application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to construct the project.
SDI 2008 p. 15 of 29
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AT DA Japanese competitiveness
Unique turn - Our economy advantage turns your DA – if the U.S. economy goes down so
will the Japanese economy which is slowing now.
Associated Press Worldstream ’08 (Feb. 12, l/n, twm)
Japanese Economy Minister Hiroko Ota said Tuesday that the nation's economy may temporarily slow
down because of the U.S. slump. "The U.S. economy is slowing down at an accelerating pace. It is
possible that Japan's economic growth will moderate temporarily because of the U.S.," Ota said at a
news conference. She said she will monitor the possible impact of a slowdown in the American economy on
Japan. Ota made the remarks when asked about the joint statement Saturday of the financial chiefs of the
Group of Seven industrialized countries that acknowledged the risk of a U.S. economic slowdown. But the
statement projected that in the long-term the U.S. economy will continue to grow. The American economy
a vital export market for Japan nearly stalled in the fourth quarter, growing at a pace of just 0.6
percent. The odds of a recession have grown considerably over the last year, and an increasing number
of analysts believe the economy may actually be shrinking now. Those concerns, plus rising oil prices,
market volatility and a global credit crunch have all caused analysts to speculate that Japan's economy
will also slow.

non-unique high oil and food prices are slowing the Japanese economy now.
International Herald Tribune July 8, 2008 p. 11 l/n twm
Japanese corporate profits are falling while consumer prices are expected to keep rising because of
high oil and food costs, Masaaki Shirakawa, the governor of the Bank of Japan, said Monday, underlining
the central bank's policy dilemma as it juggles the risks of slowing growth and rising global inflation.
In a further sign of weakness in the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan lowered its assessment for eight of
Japan's nine regions, with many of its regional branch managers citing soft personal consumption when they
met Monday. Shirakawa told the meeting that economic growth in Japan was slowing because of rising
energy and raw material costs, with exports increasing at a slower pace and corporate profits
decreasing. High commodity prices are expected to push up Japanese wholesale and retail prices, he said,
adding that the central bank needed to closely monitor the impact of rising raw material costs on the
economy. ''Global inflationary risks are intensifying, as seen in the surge in international commodity prices,''
Shirakawa said during a speech at the quarterly meeting.

no link – the U.S. doesn’t have the tech right now we would have to buy from Japan in the
short term
Jack Spencer, Research Fellow in Nuclear Energy in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at
The Heritage Foundation, June 2, 2008, Nuclear Power Needed to Minimize Lieberman-Warner's Economic Impact,
The reality is that the United States has not ordered a new reactor since the mid-1970s and it does not
have the industrial infrastructure to build even one reactor today. Its industrial and intellectual base
atrophied as the nuclear industry declined over the past three decades.

turn – the plan massively increases the size of the world nuclear energy market which
means that even if U.S. manufacturing gets some of that business Japan will also get new

no link – we tradeoff with jobs in the coal industry and Japan doesn’t have any sector of
that market which means we can only increase their export markets.

case turns the DA – runaway global warming will crush the global economy and Japan
along with it.
SDI 2008 p. 16 of 29
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AT DA Japanese competitiveness - Japanese economy decreasing now extensions

Japanese economy slowing now.

International Herald Tribune July 8, 2008 p. 11 l/n twm
That is partly because corporate activity, a key driver of growth, is weakening in the face of rising
materials costs and a global economic slowdown, putting the Japanese economy's longest postwar
expansion cycle at risk. Confidence among big Japanese manufacturers sank to a five-year low in
June, while companies expect profits for the fiscal year ending next March to fall for the first time in
seven years, a business sentiment survey by the Bank of Japan showed last week.

Majority of regions in Japan have economic problems.

International Herald Tribune July 8, 2008 p. 11 l/n twm
''The inflation rate is stable in Japan compared with other countries, and there is no sign of rising crude oil
prices leading to higher wages,'' said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas Securities, adding, ''I don't
think there will be much discussion of a rate hike within the BOJ.'' The central bank's regional branch
managers, who meet in Tokyo four times a year, kept their overall assessment of the regional economy
unchanged in their report, saying growth continued to slow mainly because of high energy and materials
prices. But eight of the country's nine regions downgraded the assessment of their economies, with
many describing economic activity as sluggish or slowing. All nine regions lowered their assessment of
personal consumption as rising prices of daily necessities made consumers spend less on leisure and
more expensive items. ''Consumption is somewhat weak as consumers are cutting back on spending
with prices of gasoline and food on the rise,'' said Masahiro Samejima, manager of the Bank of Japan's
branch in Osaka in western Japan. ''Department stores say jewelry, paintings and luxury brand items aren't
selling very well, partly because share prices aren't rising much,'' he said. Hideo Hayakawa, manager of the
Bank of Japan branch in Nagoya, said export and output growth in the central Japanese region of Tokai,
home to Toyota Motor, was stagnating partly because of slowing U.S. demand for Japanese cars. The Bank
of Japan has kept monetary policy on hold since raising rates in February last year. It abandoned a tightening
bias in April this year on lingering economic uncertainty at home and abroad. Kazuyuki Sugimoto, the
deputy finance minister, said that he expected the world economy to slow as economies in the developed
world weakened, although he added that emerging economies remained firm. Sugimoto, who became deputy
finance minister last week, also said that the ministry would carefully monitor currency markets, when asked
about President George W. Bush's comment Sunday that the United States believed in a strong dollar policy.
''We do not comment on other countries' currency policy,'' he said. ''We'll watch currencies carefully.''
SDI 2008 p. 17 of 29
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No vote of CFTA
a. April delay
Market Watch 7/24/08
On April 10 2008 the US House of Representatives voted to indefinitely delay the implementation of
the United States-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. The move effectively delays debate on the
politically sensitive free trade deal until after the November 2008 Presidential election and avoids a
potentially damaging showdown between the two democratic presidential candidates who have both
questioned the merits of free trade. Colombia's food and drink exporters currently enjoy relatively
straightforward access to the US under the Andean Trade Preference and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA)
passed in 2002. However, this agreement will expire on December 31 2008 and the failure to pass the new
Trade Promotion Agreement sends a worrying signal that the US may be less open to Colombia's exports
under a new administration.

b. Pelosi won’t force a vote

Reuters, 7/22/08
The free trade deal with Colombia has been in limbo since April when U.S. House of Representatives
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, rebuffed an effort by Bush to force a vote on the pact.

c. Democratic opposition and union violence

The Hill, 7/4/08
The dramatic rescue of three U.S. hostages held by a Colombian rebel group is unlikely to win a House
vote on a controversial free trade agreement blocked by Democrats. A Democratic aide said that despite the
rescue, Colombia still has not achieved satisfactory results in violence against union organizers. In
addition, the aide said, Democratic leaders are not inclined to move a trade bill, which many Democrats
associate with the loss of manufacturing jobs, after a sixth straight months of job losses.

d. election year politics

Human Events, 7/4/08
Colombia’s patience -- sometimes valuable in the war on narcotics -- may soon wear thin because the U.S.
Congress is continuing to stall a vote on a Free Trade Agreement, in limbo since its signing 590 days ago
in November of 2006. White House Undersecretary for International Trade Christopher A. Padilla said
Congress is holding the CFTA hostage to election year politics, having refused it even a debate on the
House floor due to Congress’ disagreement with President Bush over “protocol” measures and
concerns for labor unions in the country.
SDI 2008 p. 18 of 29
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AT DA CFTA Pelosi extensions

Pelosi still concerned about security.
Reuters, 7/3/08
The rescue raised White House hopes that House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi might
reconsider her opposition to the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement and schedule a vote soon on the
pact. "One of the concerns that she said she's had has been security in Colombia," White House
spokeswoman Dana Perino said. "We maintain that President (Alvaro) Uribe, since elected -- since he was
elected -- has done a tremendous job of improving security there in Colombia." Although Pelosi applauds
the rescue, it doesn't reduce longstanding concerns she has had about violence facing union workers in
Colombia, Pelosi spokesman Nadeam Elshami said. Also, she still believes Congress and the Bush
administration must do more to boost the U.S. economy before turning to the Colombia trade pact,
Elshami said.
SDI 2008 p. 19 of 29
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AT DA CFTA Elections extensions

Dems and election year politics are blocking a deal
Colombia report 7/24/08
Colombia’s free trade agreement with the world’s largest economy is the ratification by the U.S. congress.
The Democratic majority in congress refuses to put the vote on the agenda until after the November
presidential elections, despite numerous requests made by U.S. President George W. Bush and his
Republican Party to ratify the pact.
SDI 2008 p. 20 of 29
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AT DA CFTA- Won’t Pass

CFTA won’t pass- election year
Business Week, 7/17/08
A trade deal the Bush Administration negotiated with Colombia could change all that, eliminating tariffs on
virtually all U.S. products. But the Colombia deal, as well as major agreements with Korea and Panama, has
stalled in Congress. These agreements have become a potent issue in the Presidential campaign. Senator
John McCain (R-Ariz.) traveled to Colombia two weeks ago and expressed his support for the Colombia
deal, while Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has said he wants to reevaluate various trade deals, including the
North American Free Trade Agreement, to increase protections for U.S. workers.

More evidence
Michael Collier, COHA Research Associate, 6/27/08
In an interview with the Washington Post, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made it clear that stalling a vote on
ratification of the CTPA was designed to pressure the Bush Administration to provide further domestic
economic stimulus provisions and worker benefits. With Bush unlikely to acquiesce, the prospects for
Congress to pass the agreement rest on the outcome of the November elections, which presently do not
appear favorable for Republicans. Meanwhile, Democratic nominee Barack Obama has openly declared his
opposition to the CTPA, based on Colombia's track record with organized labor and paramilitary groups.
Still, Obama's opposition to the CTPA is partially rooted in election year posturing, and his recent vote in
favor of the U.S.-Peru free trade agreement indicates he is not opposed to free trade in principle. In the event
of a November victory, it is unlikely he would ask Congress to ratify the CTPA in its current form.
Alternatively, McCain is an outspoken proponent of the free trade deal, as he will reiterate in his forthcoming
trip to Colombia. Since he has repeatedly insisted that maintaining free trade is a key part of his agenda,
McCain would categorically pursue CTPA ratification if he wins the 2008 election.
SDI 2008 p. 21 of 29
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AT DA CFTA- Will Pass

CFTA still possible
AP, 7/2/08
John McCain hailed the economic benefits of free trade to Colombians Wednesday, raising the possibility
of an eventual hemispheric-wide agreement even though a weak economy at home has soured many
U.S. voters on trade agreements.

CFTA will pass- extradition

The Boston Globe, 7/10/08
When the US House leadership chose not to bring the Colombia Free Trade Agreement to a vote in
April, some opponents said that Uribe did not take seriously the atrocities committed by the
paramilitary groups. Last May 13, Uribe extradited 14 paramilitary leaders to the United States to
face drug trafficking and other charges. They had failed to meet their commitments under the terms of the
Justice and Peace Law, including compensating their victims. The extradition of these individuals alone
ought to persuade the House to now approve the agreement.

Will pass- Marulanda and hostage rescue

The Boston Globe, 7/10/08
Colombians have more work to do to make their society truly secure, democratic, and just. They have
earned respect for what they have accomplished so far and deserve continuing US support. The
hostage rescue and the death of a narco-terrorist leader provide the chance for a bipartisan show of
engagement with Latin America. Congress should seize it immediately.
SDI 2008 p. 22 of 29
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AT DA Congressional Elections- Dems Win

Dems will win
Ohmy News International, 7/8/08
While most public and media attention has naturally focused on the presidential race, the other elected branch
of the US government -- the Congress -- will also face voters in November. And while polls show that the
race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain remains tight, the good news in the
congressional races is all on the Democratic side of the aisle. Since losing control of both houses of
Congress in the 2006 elections, things have only gotten worse for Republicans. In the past year, Democrats
have one three seats in special elections in formerly safe Republican districts in Illinois, Mississippi,
and Louisiana. In Illinois, Democrats took over the seat formerly held by the last Republican Speaker
of the House, Dennis Hastert, while in Mississippi they won the seat held by Roger Wicker, who had
won the special election to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott. With those wins, the
Democrats now hold a 236-199 edge in the House, and seem poised to gain more.

Dems will win- a 14 seat gain is a conservative guess

Larry Sabato, Dir. UVa Center for Politics, 6/12/08
Furthermore, it appears very likely that Democrats will gain seats in the House, thus padding their
majority. The precise number of seats to be added is indeterminate for now, but eight to fourteen is a
decent, conservative guess. (As we always do at the Crystal Ball, we will adjust this estimate beginning in
early September and ending in early November.) The March 8th Democratic takeover of former GOP
Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat in Illinois by a little-known challenger, Bill Foster, was the first warning
shot across the Republican bow. So too was the special election of Democrat Don Cazayoux on May
3rd for the seat vacated by Republican Rep. Richard Baker.

Dems are going to win a 60 seat advantage

The Weekly Standard, 2008
I've always scoffed at the notion that the Democrats could win control of a 60-seat filibuster-proof
Senate majority in November, but the Hill's Aaron Blake points out that "Democrats have now polled
ahead or within the margin of error in 11 Republican-held seats, as polls conducted in recent weeks show
openings in second-tier targets including Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas. . . Democrats
have also polled ahead in at least some of the polling in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and
Virginia, polling substantial leads in the latter three. They have also been within the margin of

Dems will get the 60 vote filibuster

US News, 7/24/08
With 100-plus days until the elections, top Democrats are high on their prospects of picking up more
House and Senate seats. They credit good candidates, fundraising muscle, a strong field operation, and
planned TV buys—not to mention Barack Obama's coattails—along with the backdrop of an unpopular GOP
president and ailing economy. The GOP, of course, counters that its rivals' early predictions count for little.
Could Democrats reach the magic number of 60 for a filibuster-proof Senate majority? Such a feat
would certainly confound the expectations of political analysts. Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, who is
predicting a "tectonic-plate election," says that would be very difficult, but it's not out of the question.
Senate Democrats now have a slim voting majority of 51-49. The optimistic Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee, says that his party's candidates are ahead in races in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Alaska; running
"even or very close" in Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kentucky, Maine, and North Carolina; and "not close but narrowing" in Kansas,
Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Georgia. Leading up to November, Democrats have long had two built-in
advantages: far fewer seats up for re-election, 12 vs. 23, and not a single retirement (while five Republican
senators are calling it quits). Schumer prefers to point out that 35 races are playing out in 33 states that comprise the "reddest map in a
long time." Most contests are in the Deep South, Great Plains, and Mountain West. Only three states with Senate races are blue, though
barely: Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon, Schumer says.
SDI 2008 p. 23 of 29
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AT DA Congressional Elections General

Too many other factors and too far off
Larry Sabato, Dir. UVa Center for Politics, 6/12/08
If your district is not listed in our "toss-up", "leans", or "likely" categories, then you can assume for now that
the incumbent party has a big leg up to hold it. Yet there will be plenty of surprises in the months ahead,
including perhaps a couple more unexpected retirements or primary defeats, not to mention
unpredictable scandals. One example is the previously mentioned Don Young of Alaska, who may well
lose a GOP primary battle to retain his seat on August 26 to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. If Parnell wins,
Republicans may retain the House seat in November, while Young would be a sitting duck for
Democrats. The House picture could also become complicated by presidential third-parties that may
nominate candidates that hurt one party or the other disproportionately. Finally, the fates of politics may
consign most of just one party's marginal candidates to defeat if a strong trend develops next fall.
SDI 2008 p. 24 of 29
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AT DA India Deal
No vote
Joseph Crowley, foreign affairs committee, 7/25/08
Question: Now that the Manmohan Singh Government has won the vote of confidence, what are the
chances of the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear deal being passed by the US Congress now? Answer: I do think
there are still some issues that are lying in the way before it comes before the US Congress - the
International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Supplier Group. It has been indicated to us that
they would finish the work or come to an agreement near the end of October. That would certainly limit its
ability to come to the House (of Representatives) and the Senate before the end of this Presidential cycle. But
we do look forward to it. Whether it is IAEA or the NSG there are still some hurdles left that have to be
crossed before it comes back to the United States. Question: You have written a letter to the Prime
Minister today Answer: I have written a letter to the Prime Minister congratulating him on the vote of
confidence that he received. In the letter I indicated to him that it is my hope that the Government of India
will use this momentum and move swiftly to allow sufficient time for IAEA and NSG to clear the pact for
final approval by the Congress. It is my hope that that will happen. Question: Do you think that the
Congress has enough time left on its calendar to consider the deal when it comes to it. How long the
Congress can wait for it? Answer: Let me say this. We will be here for another week, and then take a break
for the August recess. We will come back in September and we will be here for approximately three weeks.
So in total four weeks are left on the legislative calendar before we break for the elections. All indications
right now is that there would be no Lame Duck session, but that could change between now and the end
of the year. Question: Given that the IAEA and NSG process is unlikely to be completed before September
end and that there is less likelihood of a Lame Duck session; so what happens to the deal than if the Congress
is not able to approve it before the end of this Presidential cycle. Answer: Well, if the Congress is unable to
pass it, I think, a number of things could happen. First of all other countries can move forward. We expect
that they would do that. If all works out with the IAEA and NSG then certainly several countries France and
probably Britain would move forward in terms of establishing ties with India. In such a situation, certainly
the country that initiated this would be at the disadvantage stage. In that case, we would have to take it up
again in the next Congress and go through the regular process. Question: That would be time consuming and
would have to go through the entire regular process again.

b. No lame duck
Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in Asian Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, 7/8/08
K Alan Kronstadt, an expert on South Asian affairs and a senior analyst at the Congressional Research Service, is acclaimed in Washington, DC for his understanding of India,
Pakistan, their conflict over Kashmir, and other issues, both defence and trade-related. As an analyst at CRS, which is a kind of in-house think-tank for the United States Congress,
his reports on Pakistan and terrorism and US-Pakistan relations are eagerly studied by Washington policymakers. He spoke to Managing Editor (National Affairs) Sheela Bhatt a day
before Congress went into recess for the July 4 break. He discussed the future of the India-US civilian nuclear agreement in its current form and the possibility of it being passed by
the United States Congress. What is your take on the Indian government's decision to go ahead with the deal? What is the next possible scenario? Obviously, the steps are quite clear.
India will have to finalise the safeguards agreement and get it cleared from the board of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). The NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) will
have to agree to alter its guidelines (to allow) international trade (of nuclear material with India). Once the resolution is ready, it will be presented in Congress for a simple up and
down vote. It is expected that there will not be any amendment process. The key here is that, according to our laws, the Congressional calendar in US requires a continuous 30-day
session once the president introduces the bill to Congress. The calendar is getting a little tough now. Congress is in recess in August. The session of the 110th Congress, which sat in
January 2007, ends this year. The session is slated to end in late September unless a lame-duck session occurs after the November election. Congressmen may or may not decide to
come back for the lame-duck session, specially this year, now that we have a presidential election going on too. This is very disruptive to the Congressional schedule. The entire 435
members of the House (of Representatives) and one-third of the members of the Senate are running for re-election. They are compelled to go back to their districts to campaign.
Congress is likely to be not in session for (the remainder of the) year unless they choose to come back for the lame-duck session. What if President Bush decides to take it up? Then,
there are ways of doing it, right? I am not aware of any steps the president can take to do away with the 30 days of continuous session that is required. It is part of the law. We have
the Atomic Energy Act, which is relevant here (It deals with the regulation of nuclear materials and facilities in the US). There is the Hyde Act, which is an enabling act that is clear
about the requirements (that come after the submission by the) president. That's why, in the last few months we saw State Department officials started referring... to Senator (Joseph)
Biden's statements. As a senior (senator), Senator Biden's words should be taken as quite credible on the issue. Biden said we need to submit (the nuclear deal) sometime in June.
When the administration started referring to Biden's statements I took it as a sign that the (Bush) administration itself was seeing the timeline the same way. Subsequent statements
from the (US) ambassador (to India David Mulford) and even from some Congressmen suggest that the clock has run out. The 30 days' session starts when the president submits the
India-US nuclear co-operation agreement to Congress. To do that, certain steps at have to be completed at the IAEA and NSG. If the necessary steps at the IAEA and NSG are
do you think the nuclear deal has a good chance to pass Congress? The way I
completed by, say, the end of July, then
see it, there are just not enough days in the Congressional calendar without (including) a lame-duck
session. As I understand a session is planned in September that only leaves whatever days are left in
September and whatever days remain in July. I don't see how they (could) get 30 continuous days out
of that.
SDI 2008 p. 25 of 29
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AT DA India Deal IAEA/NSG extensions

Vote unlikely during bush presidency
Joseph Crowley, foreign affairs committee, 7/25/08
Question: The conversation with you gives me a sense that the chances of the deal going through the
Congress this year is very less. Answer: I think what we have to look at is that there is a time issue in the
Congress within this session and within this President's term. That is dictated by our constitution and not by
per say politics. Right now, I think, we are jumping ahead to Congress when we do not even have an
agreement reached with the NSG or the IAEA. I understand the concerns of the Indian Government to get
it passed this year, but there are still hurdles prior to it coming back to the Congress that have not been
addressed yet. So some may suggest that this could be a pre mature conversation, but I do hope that they do
move expeditiously enough so that we can at least have some sense of if we can bring this before the House
or now. Question: Is it unlikely that the Lame Duck session would be held this time? Answer: I did not
say that there is no chance (of a Lame Duck session). But the indications right now would lead me to
believe that the chances right now are less likely than likely. We do not know what will happen.
SDI 2008 p. 26 of 29
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AT DA India Deal - No Time extensions

Time is running out on the India deal.
The Hindu, 7/24/08 (PTI):
A senior Democratic law maker has said the likelihood of the Congress taking up the Indo-US civilian
nuclear deal before the year-end is "very" difficult. "My perspective regarding likelihood of the US
Congress taking up the nuclear issue again before the year-end is that as a practical matter, it will be
very difficult," Jim McDermott said in a statement. "I have closely watched the recent developments in India concerning the nuclear energy issue and the confidence vote
for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his government. But time is running out," he said. Agreements with the International
Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers Group must be obtained before the issue can reach
Congress, the Congressman explained. "The primary focus in US over the next few months will be on
politics leading up to the November election in which the American people will elect a new President, vote on all 435 House Members and one-
SDI 2008 p. 27 of 29
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AT DA India Deal- Will Pass

India deal will pass soon – it has momentum
NDTV, 7/25
After the Indo-US nuclear deal cleared its biggest hurdle on Tuesday, the anti-deal lobby in the US is
now pinning all their hopes on opposition to it by at least a few members of the International Atomic
Energy Agency, Nuclear Suppliers Group and the US Congress where it would soon be coming for
clearance. A bit disappointed with turn of events in New Delhi on Tuesday wherein Manmohan Singh won
the vote of confidence in Parliament, the anti-nuke lobby believes that it would now be difficult for them
to stop it, given the Bush administration is geared up to muster all the resources at their command to
get the deal passed quickly through the IAEA, NSG and the Congress.

Will pass – momentum and biden support

NDTV, 7/25
Within minutes of the government winning the confidence vote, supporters of the nuclear deal in the
US prepared to pick up the baton and sprint towards the finish line.
USIBC, an Industry group that spearheaded legislation in the United States in 2006 to change the US Atomic
Energy Act of 1954 -- enabling civilian nuclear cooperation with India, lost no time in highlighting the next
few steps needed to push this deal through the US Congress.
''We are delighted with the outcome of the confidence motion and now the real work begins. In terms of
the timing, I am very heartened that Senator Joe Biden, the Chairman of the of the Foreign Relations
Committee of the US Senate, has publicly said that he is going to fight like the devil to get this deal done
in this 110th Congress. We know that the time is tight but with champions like Joe Biden behind this I
am very hopeful,'' says USIBC president Ron Somers.

Will pass before Bush leaves office

The Australian 7/23/08,25197,24063731-2703,00.html
INDIA'S crucial nuclear deal with Washington is finally set to go ahead after the country's embattled
coalition Government emerged victorious early today from a make-or-break confidence vote in the
parliament in New Delhi.After two days of heated debate, the 12-party coalition survived a massive
onslaught by combined opposition forces and won a majority in the 543-seat lower house. Early numbers in
electronic voting early today gave the Government 253 votes to 232 for the opposition. The finally tally was
awaited after paper votes had been counted, but officials said the Government was assured of victory. MPs
crowded around Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to congratulate him after a day of chaos, during which
millions of rupees were tossed on to the floor of parliament amid allegations that the Government had
attempted to bribe MPs to get extra votes. There were tumultuous scenes as government MPs celebrated by
throwing their order papers in the air and taunting their opponents who had believed they could bring down
the Government on an issue regarded as one of the most crucial to confront the nation in the 62 years since it
gained independence. The deal allows India, which has nuclear weapons and refuses to sign the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty, to be treated as a special case on condition it separates its civil and military
programs and allows some UN inspections. The Government says it would help to ease the chronic energy
shortage in India. Opponents say it would give the US too much control over Indian foreign policy and the
military nuclear program. Government officials argued that the country's 1.1 billion people badly needed
alternative sources of energy to avert an impending fuel crunch. The victory represents a major win for Dr
Singh, the architect of the deal he signed with US President George W. Bush in 2005. It also represents a
major foreign policy win for the Bush administration. The deal can now be hurried through to its next stages,
with agreements being negotiated with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the 45-nation Nuclear
Suppliers Group. Australia is expected to play a key role in relation to uranium supplies. Officials in New
Delhi and Washington said immediately after the vote that everything possible would be done to try to
get the final draft of the agreement passed by the US before the Bush administration left office.
SDI 2008 p. 28 of 29
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AT DA Spending
turn – our economy advantage turns the internal link to your impact

Spending high now, economy jacked now, deficit high now, economy resilient.
Reuters, 7/28/08
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration on Monday cut its budget deficit forecast for the
current year but expanded it to a record $482 billion for 2009 as the weakening U.S. economy slows
revenues and spending remains high. The White House said the budget shortfall for fiscal 2008, which
ends September 30, will likely come in at around $389 billion, below its $410 billion estimate released in
February, because receipts were holding up better than expected. However, due to tax rebates, overall receipts
will still be below last year The White House lowered its forecast for 2008 economic growth to 1.2
percent, measured fourth quarter over fourth quarter, from 2.7 percent previously, putting it in line with
private sector projections. But the administration said growth looked set to rebound to 2.9 percent next year
and 3.5 percent in 2010, stronger than many private economists expect The White House said its
projections portray an economy that is fundamentally resilient, with inflation controlled. "If food and
energy prices stabilize as expected, the inflation rate should decline," the White House said.

Spending high now- reckless policies, Iraq and Afghanistan.

CNN, 7/28/08
The Bush administration has spent heavily on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and faces a large
budget shortfall in tax revenue because of Bush's tax cuts and a souring economy. A Democratic point
man on the budget, Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota, blasted the administration for its "reckless fiscal
policies," blaming the president's tax cuts for driving the government into deficit and saying Bush
"will be remembered as the most fiscally irresponsible president in our nation's history." Conrad, who
chairs the Senate's budget committee, accused the president of "squandering" the deficit he inherited from
President Bill Clinton and said the increased debt the government has taken on to cover the deficit has
undermined the value of the dollar and hurt the overall economy. "If they gave out Olympic medals for
fiscal irresponsibility, President Bush would take the gold, silver and bronze," Conrad said. "With his
eight years in office, he will have had the five highest deficits ever recorded. And the highest of those
deficits is now projected to come in 2009, as he leaves office." But the senior administration official says
the budgetary problems stem from what is believed to be inadequate defense, intelligence and homeland
security resources that were handed down from Clinton.

Biggest deficit ever projected- war costs and economic slowdowns

Washington Post, 7/28/09
The federal budget deficit will surge to nearly $490 billion next fiscal year, a record dollar amount,
driven by continuing war costs and an economic slowdown that is not likely to turn around fast, according to
the Office of Management and Budget. After three successive years of decline, this year's deficit will
jump dramatically as well. That is likely to scramble the plans of the next president, regardless of
which candidate prevails. Either Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama will enter the White
House in a tide of red ink.

Spending high now- Iraq, Medicaid, transportation grants, vetrans’ benefits

USA Today, 7/28/08
The budget update shows this year's deficit headed under $400 billion, at least $10 billion less than
projected, according to the two officials. That's partly because tax revenues held up despite the weaker
economy.Curbing the deficit will fall to Bush's successor and the next Congress. The task will follow tax
cuts and major spending initiatives such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, transportation grants,
Medicare prescription drug coverage and expanded veterans' education benefits.
SDI 2008 p. 29 of 29
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AT DA Business Confidence
Fears of US recession, Midwest Flooding, Auto Industry decline and increased food prices.
Business First 6-30
National City Corp. said Monday that its Business Confidence Index declined to an all-time low of 57.8 as
respondents expressed concerns about the ramifications of Midwest flooding and the continued
struggles of the U.S. automotive industry. National City (NYSE: NCC) contacted business managers in
Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and asked them two questions:
Would you describe the current economic outlook for your specific business/industry as very poor, poor, fair,
good or very good; and Do you plan to reduce, maintain or increase the size of your work force in the coming
12 months? Business outlook and hiring plans indices are calculated by adding the percentage of total
positive responses and half of the neutral responses. The composite index is calculated by averaging the
outlook and hiring plans indices. Respondents contacted in June said they feared ripple effects of recent
Midwestern flooding, including higher food prices.

Increasing Costs- health care and energy

The Economist 7-24 ("Which way will capital vote?" 2008,
What they do know is that their members are gloomy. According to American Management Services, a
consultancy, 81% of small-business owners think the economy is in recession. The National Federation
of Independent Business, a lobby group, says small-business confidence is at its lowest ebb in three
decades. The big worry is inflation, especially of health-care and energy costs. Health-insurance costs
for small businesses have risen by 130% since 1999, causing wages to stagnate and many firms to
restrict or eliminate coverage. Mr McCain wants to curb costs by allowing more competition, and to give
tax breaks for health insurance to individuals rather than companies. Mr Obama promises subsidies to make
coverage nearly universal and to tax big firms that don't cover their employees. Both plans have drawbacks,
says Bruce Josten of the Chamber of Commerce. Few people will buy individual insurance policies under Mr
McCain's plan, he predicts, and Mr Obama's does not do enough to restrain costs.