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SDI 2008 1

WHAM! Natural Gas DA

Natural Gas DA Index
Natural Gas DA Index................................................1
1NC Natural Gas DA (1/3).........................................3
1NC Natural Gas DA (2/3).........................................4
1NC Natural Gas DA (3/3).........................................5
Ext. Demand High......................................................6
Brink...........................................................................7
Link- General (1/2)....................................................8
Link- General (2/2)....................................................9
Link- Solar...............................................................10
Link- RPS.................................................................11
Link- Wind...............................................................12
Link- Biofuels..........................................................13
Link- Nuclear Power (1/2).......................................14
Link- Nuclear Power (2/2).......................................15
Ext. US Key to Qatar...............................................16
Ext. LNG Key to US/Qatar......................................17
Heg ! 2NC................................................................18
Ext. Heg Internal Link.............................................19
Middle East War !....................................................20
Ext. Middle East War Internal Link.........................21
AT: Qatar Corrupt/Econ not liberalized...................22
AT: Domestic Reserves Solve..................................23
AT: Offshore Drilling Solves...................................24
AT: Canada Solves...................................................25
US-Q atar Relations Strong......................................26
Dependence ! 2NC...................................................27
Econ ! 2NC...............................................................28
AT: Impact Turns......................................................29
AT: Natural Gas Unsafe...........................................30
AT: Terrorism Turn...................................................31
AT: Hurst Turns........................................................32
AT: Iran LNG...........................................................33
Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better- Warming (1/2). .34
Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better- Warming (2/2). .35
No Link- No Tradeoff..............................................36
No Link- Alt Cause..................................................37

SDI 2008 2
WHAM! Natural Gas DA

Aff ! T/- Economy Module......................................38
Ext. Economy ! T/ Internal Link..............................39
Aff ! T/- Terrorism Module......................................40
Ext. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (1/2).....................41
Ext. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (2/2).....................42
Aff ! T/ Safety..........................................................43
Aff ! T/- Environment Module.................................44
Ext. Environment ! T/ Internal Link........................45
Aff AT: Levene.........................................................46
AT: The Coastguard can Solve.................................47

SDI 2008 3
WHAM! Natural Gas DA

1NC Natural Gas DA (1/3)
A. US demand for natural gas is high and increasing causing higher prices
The Associated Press State & Local Wire, Newswire, June 3, 2008, lexis, Natural gas reps. tell Mo.
regulators demand causing spikes, nna
Natural gas and utility industry representatives tell regulators increasing demand could fuel higher
energy prices. Chris McGill with the American Gas Association says there are now two peak periods
for natural gas demand. There's the traditional winter heating season, and one in summer because
more electrical plants use natural gas. Besides demand, the trade groups point to weaker U.S. currency,
increasing foreign competition for liquefied natural gas and hurricanes as contributors for higher
prices. The Public Service Commission last week allowed three utilities to charge an extra $100 to
$200 for natural gas. The bump can be adjusted as gas prices change, and it factors only market prices and
doesn't account for profits.

B. This demand is met by increasing imports of LNG for Qatar- the US is the primary
market for Qatar
The Hindustan Times“Qatar aims to raise LNG output to 77 million tons in two years,” 4-9-2008, Proquest
Nicosia, April 9 -- Qatar has aimed to raise production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from 31 million
tons a year to 77 million tons a year by 2010, the country's Minister of State for Energy and Industry
Affairs, Dr. Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada, told the 16th Annual Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference
in Doha. Qatar is already the biggest LNG exporter in the world and with a number of huge projects
that will cost billions of dollars, mainly the two LNG processing trains - where gas is liquefied - it will
add by the end of the year another 8 million tons to its LNG output. Recently, a four billion dollars deal
to build natural gas processing facilities in Qatar was reached between Qatar Liquefied Gas Co. and Japan's
Chiyoda. The two companies agreed to build two LNG processing trains to the Qatargas-3 and Qatargas-4
projects in the Ras Laffan Industrial city. The United States will be a primary market for the gas
produced by the new units. America will cover 30 per cent of its total LNG needs from Qatar. As from
next year, it will buy more than 15 million tons of LNG a year from Qatar. The country's first markets
were Japan and Korea. India followed soon. The country's Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah told
journalists that Qatar's investment in the hydrocarbon sector would exceed 60 billion dollars.

C. Renewable energy reduces natural gas demand from Qatar
Union of Concerned Scientists, 8/27/07, “Clean Energy”, AB,
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/clean_energy_policies/the-renewable-electricity-standard.html#6
Much of the U.S. energy system—power plants, dams, refineries, pipelines, tankers, and the electricity
transmission grid—presents significant safety and security risks. Renewable energy facilities are small,
geographically dispersed, and do not require transporting or storing radioactive or combustible materials.
Increasing renewable energy would reduce the number of vulnerable facilities over time. Renewable
energy can also reduce the need to expand imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG imports from
non-NAFTA countries, including some OPEC members—Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, and Qatar
—are projected to grow from less than 1 percent of gas supply today to up to 12 percent by 2010.
Renewable fuels can also displace oil. Among the experts calling for a federal RES to increase energy
security are James Woolsey, former head of the CIA, Robert McFarland, former national security advisor to
President Reagan, and Admiral Thomas Moorer, former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

SDI 2008 4
WHAM! Natural Gas DA

1NC Natural Gas DA (2/3)
D. US LNG imports key to maintaining US-Qatar relations.
Michael Klare – professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2006 The Nation, “The
Geopolitics of Natural Gas,” 1-23-2006, www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Oil_watch/Geopolitics_NaturalGas.html) //
JMP
The rising worldwide demand for gas is also influencing relations between the major consuming
nations and their principal suppliers. A key factor in the geopolitics of natural gas is the heavy concentration of reserves in a
relatively small number of producing countries. All told, the top ten gas producers harbor 76 percent of the world's proven reserves,
while the top five-Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates-hold nearly 67 percent. This means, of course, that
these countries are in a very strong position to control the global flow of gas and to influence market forces.Russia, which owns 26.7
percent of the world's proven gas supplies (compared with 2.9 percent for the United States), will play a dominant role in the energy
field for many decades to come. Although the United States and Russia produced similar amounts of gas in 2004-05 (543 billion and 589
billion cubic meters, respectively), America's output was about 10 percent of its total reserves while Russia's output was only 1 percent.
Russia already supplies a large share of Europe's natural gas, and when new pipelines are constructed, it will be capable of supplying
vast amounts to China, Korea and Japan-even the United States, eventually. Until now, the Russians have been very careful to avoid
giving the impression that they intend to exploit their dominant position in Europe for political advantage. Nevertheless, Moscow has
been accused of engaging in such practices in the past: In December 2000, for example, it temporarily suspended gas deliveries to
Georgia in a move perceived by many Georgians as punishment for the failure of its leaders, notably then-President Eduard
Shevardnadze, to defer to Russia on key regional issues. The current blockage of gas to Ukraine can be seen as another instance of the
same tactic. Officials of the European Union are worried about the growing role of Gazprom in the delivery of natural gas to Europe. At
present, Gazprom supplies approximately 40 percent of Europe's natural gas, and its share is likely to grow as gas fields in the North Sea
are exhausted. Fearing that Moscow may someday exploit its role as Europe's major gas supplier to wring political concessions from its
customers, EU officials have called for greater diversity in the procurement of energy-so far, to little avail. Iran is also a major producer
of natural gas. Under increasing diplomatic pressure from the Bush Administration to halt its suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons,
Tehran has been eager to establish joint production and export projects with friendly nations in Europe and Asia. In the past two years
alone, it has signed several multibillion-dollar deals with companies from France, Italy, Norway, Turkey, Japan and India for joint
development of offshore gas fields in the Persian Gulf and the construction of new pipelines to Europe and Asia. Capping this drive was
the signing in October 2004 of a $100 billion, twenty-five-year contract with the China National Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec)
for the joint production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG), much of which will ultimately go to China. While all this makes
perfect commercial sense, given Iran's need for foreign partners in the management of these ambitious projects, it is safe to assume
Tehran is also seeking to increase the number of allies it can turn to in case of a showdown with the United States. Qatar has
tacked the opposite way, using its huge gas reserves to establish close ties with Washington and to
insinuate itself beneath the US defense umbrella. Under a $10 billion, twenty-five-year agreement
signed in 2003, ExxonMobil will build the world's largest LNG shipping facility in Qatar. Much of the
resulting liquid will go to the United States to be converted back into gas. This will entail the construction of new
LNG terminals at ports on the US Gulf Coast, a major undertaking. Like Qatar's, many of the world's largest deposits of natural gas are
located far from the areas where demand is greatest. The most efficient and economical way to transport gas to distant markets is by
pipeline. As a result, vast natural gas pipeline networks have been built in North America, Europe and the former Soviet Union, and
many more such conduits are under construction. These networks are easiest to construct on land or in relatively shallow, enclosed
bodies of water like the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, both of which are now traversed by gas pipelines.

705. 42 However.org. As it turned out. including prominent organizations such as the Qatar Charitable Society and the Shaikh Eid bin Mohammed Al Thani Charitable Association. police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights. the technology is a secret for nobody.and this is far from certain -. 2001 as “significant. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another. this war will be without winners and losers. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be used to justify anticipatory measures. including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated. “Extinction!” August 26-September 1 2004 . http://weekly. Article 24 of the law establishing the Authority allows the Emir to grant an exemption from QACA oversight to any organization at any time. Today. Societies would close in on themselves.S.the weapons used are less harmful than those used then.hml A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki. Qatar also established the Qatar Authority for Charitable Activities (QACA) in March 2004 to monitor the activities of all Qatari domestic and international charitable organizations. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet. we will all be losers.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718. it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. these allegations. . Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs. So far. proved to be unfounded. nuclear weapons have been used only to threaten. at the time.Extinction Mohamed Sid-Ahmed.Department of State has characterized Qatar’s counterterrorism support since September 11. as well as the allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD. passed in March 2004. 1/24/08 http://fas. Qatar’s central bank operates a financial intelligence unit (FIU) which monitors activity Qatar’s banking system and serves as a liaison office to similar units in the United States and around the world. What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails. US/Qatar relations are key to counterterrorism efforts Christopher Blanchard.”41 Qatar’s Combating Terrorism Law. F. from which no one will emerge victorious. with no knowledge of nuclear technology. Managing Editor for Al-Ahali. Issue no. even if -. had no choice but to capitulate. This completely changes the rules of the game. This could lead to a third world war. All international financial charity transfers and project verification fall within the jurisdiction of the new QACA. except for the two bombs dropped on Japan. We have reached a point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events.eg/2004/705/op5.ahram. established definitions of terrorism and terrorist financing and broadened the government’s power to detect and prevent terrorist threats and to investigate and prosecute terrorists and their supporters. Japan.pdf The U. tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate.SDI 2008 5 WHAM! Natural Gas DA 1NC Natural Gas DA (3/3) E.

producers not having the ability to influence market prices by withholding production). AB Last week. Demand for natural gas is high and rising. imbalances in supply and demand must inevitably engender price volatility. ocean-borne fuel just as LNG is undergoing a worldwide resurgence. For example. achieved by cooling the normally gaseous substance to about -260 degrees (Fahrenheit) and removing certain components. demand for natural gas has risen over 33 percent in the period 1986-2006. is pushing greater demand for LNG. industrial operations. The San Diego Union Tribune. In Europe. Why Natural Gas Matters in Today’s Energy and Environmental Picture. This is further exacerbated if a major supplier such as Algeria is shut down or gas from Russia is curtailed through a transit country such as Ukraine. there is now competition in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from exporting countries. are seeing natural gas supplies diminish. with reserves in Russia. natural gas can be moved much more easily around the world. he also endorsed projects such as the liquefied natural gas receiving terminals proposed for Baja California. Additionally. Colleagues and I have created detailed game theoretic models of market equilibria in which producers (or their marketing arms) may withhold production in order to achieve higher profits. but this process is costly.SDI 2008 6 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Ext. there are some very large producers. By using specialized cryogenic tankers. the environmental and economic value of natural gas has soared.aspx In recent years. or separate. or LNG. LNG is the liquid form of this fuel. the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission required interstate pipeline companies to unbundle.org/Publications/WPC/Pages/03_10_08_Natural_Gas_Gabriel. In the last 20 years. the effects of market power raise European prices by some 27 percent. . LC http://www. all the more important given the current move towards a low-carbon world. Two other trends have emerged over the last 20 years that have helped to spur both domestic and international natural gas consumption. driven by a multitude of factors. If the Mexican projects get built. The overall picture then is one of a global competition for this important fuel source. Shrinking supplies. Diane Lindquist. as well as residential and commercial use. imports of natural gas as a percentage of total consumption have risen from just over 4 percent in 1986 to almost 16 percent in 2006. Demand High Demand for natural gas has increased and gained a more prominent role on the international market. In the United States. The second trend is the rise of liquefied natural gas trading. their sales and transportation services in order to promote competition and mitigate their potential market power. In the United States. staff writer. Natural gas holds a favorable environmental position relative to coal and oil. along with economic growth and environmental concerns about coal and oil. “A liquid diet”. Compared with an assumption of perfectly competitive producers in Europe (that is. receiving terminals on North America's West Coast. Similar legislative measures were enacted in the European Union that promoted third-party access and legal splitting of gas sellers and network operators. Weekly Policy Commentary. 15 Jul 2008. when Russia temporarily cut off gas to Ukraine over a price dispute. resulting in geopolitical market power. As such. the influence of Russian production and control of key pipelines was felt in Ukraine and Western Europe in the winter of 2005-2006. which affected downstream Europe. and Qatar combined accounting for nearly 60 percent of this total. Greenspan said. "Without the flexibility such facilities will impart. The resulting simulations indicate that market power can raise natural gas prices considerably. March 10. making it an ever- important fuel for power generation. The first was the enactment of regulations geared at liberalizing gas markets. Lexis Nexis. Nearly 75 percent of the world's natural gas reserves can be found in the Middle East and Eurasia. That. Iran. While there is not yet a common "world gas price" as in the case with oil. they would add a new dynamic to global trading of the super-cooled. 2008. they will be the first liquefied natural gas. Steven Gabriel. mean the United States must build LNG receiving terminals to create a safety valve that would help stabilize gas prices." he said. when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that natural gas shortfalls are a serious problem that could erode the nation's economic recovery.rff. dependence on natural gas from other countries has been rising over time. Other developed countries. in addition to the United States. In the United States. geopolitical issues are more pronounced since almost half of the European Union's imports of gas come from Russia.

" Fitch Ratings said December 18." the sector faces "escalating credit challenges" in the intermediate to long term as "capital markets will eventually turn less accommodating. Companies that form growth plans and financial structures without considering the potential for a shift in the capital market environment or downturn in valuations can run into financial problems down the road. The rating agency based its stable outlook for next year on the fact that natural gas and wholesale power prices. FINANCE. form a challenging environment for the regulated gas and electric utility sector. at the same time that costly new facilities come online." Fitch said. and it would be unsurprising to witness some fallout from the lofty prices being paid for power and gas assets and/or companies." . added that high energy prices combined with other "rising cost elements. Fitch cautioned there is "a possibility that sustained higher prices for gas and electric power and public programs for demand management will eventually lead to reduced consumption. Fitch said it expects the power and gas sector will eventually face escalating credit challenges. gas distributors. 4 LC http://www. while below recent highs. Pg.SDI 2008 7 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Brink Now is the key time for the gas market Global Power Report. and most traditionally regulated integrated investor-owned electric utilities are better positioned to recover rising costs. "Capital market conditions that are currently positive for this sector will eventually turn less accommodating. Fitch." Fitch said that while some utilities such as public power utilities. processing and storage companies.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4157357044 &format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4157357047&cisb=22_T41573570 46&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8146&docNo=1 While the 2007 outlook for the US power and natural gas industry is "generally stable. December 21.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. other IOUs face "a more contentious regulatory and political environment." In addition." lending favorable credit implications to many companies in the sector." In the intermediate or longer term. however. adding that "easy and liberal financing has accelerated merger and acquisition activity. particularly merchant generators and gas gathering.lexisnexis. remain at "elevated levels. 2006.

with renewable energy providing a critical mid-term to long-term supplement. scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence.SDI 2008 8 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Link. as I will describe in a moment. and creates new competitors to traditional power plants. increasing renewable energy would reduce natural gas prices. while saving consumers more than $75 billion on their natural gas bills over the next five years. As a result.4 The model used in ACEEE’s analysis also demonstrates that the near-term natural gas price response and consumer savings from increasing energy efficiency and renewable energy could be much greater than projected in EIA’s NEMS model. A recent study by the American Council for An Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) confirms that modest near-term reductions in gas and electricity consumption through efficiency measures coupled with increased renewable energy use could significantly impact natural gas prices and availability. a growing number of voices are calling for increased diversification of electricity supplies. increased diversification away from gas-fired generation can indirectly suppress natural gas prices.9 percent ($0. August 26.12 per million Btu) compared to business as usual in 2020. and even greater air pollution reduction benefits. resulting in cumulative gas bill savings of $15 billion (Fig. In addition. and the expected continuation of volatile and high prices for at least the mid-term future. by reducing natural gas demand.General (1/2) Energy diversification reduces demand of natural gas Ryan Wiser. A 20 percent standard could reduce natural gas prices by as much as $0. "Renewable Energy Can Help Ease Natural Gas Crunch". renewable energy begins to displace new coal-fired power plants (which become economically competitive) instead of natural gas facilities after 2020. Renewable Energy will have a large impact on natural gas UCS 05 (Union of Concerned Scientists. Renewable energy will have an impact on natural gas UCS 05 (Union of Concerned Scientists. August 26. "Renewable Energy Can Help Ease Natural Gas Crunch". Because increased renewable energy use reduces the demand for natural gas. Such diversification holds the prospect of directly reducing our dependence on a fuel whose costs are highly uncertain. renewable energy has less of an impact on natural gas prices in these later years. 2005 "Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply Diversificatio Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives & Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources With the recent run-up in natural gas prices.25/million Btu. . 5) through 2025. but it continues to provide total energy bill savings to consumers from lower electricity prices. Achieving the 10 percent RES could reduce gas prices by 1. Under current EIA forecasts. thereby hedging the risk of natural gas price volatility and escalation. Implementing effective energy efficiency measures can be the fastest and most cost effective approach to balancing gas demand and supply.

. these studies consistently find that renewable energy and energy efficiency deployment will reduce natural gas demand. Those studies that review the impact of more aggressive national renewable energy deployment efforts have found that such efforts could reduce demand for natural gas by as much as 3 to 4 quadrillion BTU (Quads) a year by 2020. with a mean reduction across studies of approximately 2 Quads (7%). or 4% of total projected demand in 2020. Less aggressive levels of national deployment are found to reduce gas consumption by as much as 1. with a mean reduction across studies of 0. 2005 "Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply Diversificatio Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives & Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources As shown in our full report. thereby putting downward pressure on gas prices. 2005 "Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply Diversificatio Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives & Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources The level of demand and price reduction depends in large part on the level of renewable energy and energy efficiency deployment. or 10% of projected national gas consumption.5 Quads. scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence. Energy efficiency will reduce LNG use Ryan Wiser.7 Quads (2%).General (2/2) Alternative energy will reduce demand by 10% Ryan Wiser. scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence.SDI 2008 9 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Link.

.S. 12/17/07. Scientific American. but the payoff is greater. fundamentally cutting U.com/article. The infrastructure would displace 300 large coal-fired power plants and 300 more large natural gas plants and all the fuels they consume.7 billion tons a year. trade deficits and easing political tension in the Middle East and elsewhere.SDI 2008 10 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Link.9 billion tons from gasoline vehicles would be displaced by plug-in hybrids refueled by the solar power grid. Because solar technologies are almost pollution-free. That investment is substantial. and another 1.Solar Solar energy reduces use of natural gas James Mason. putting a major brake on global warming. http://www. the plan would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by 1. AB. “A Solar Grand Plan”. The plan would effectively eliminate all imported oil. saving billions of dollars year after year. In 2050 U.sciam. Solar plants consume little or no fuel.cfm?id=a- solar-grand-plan The federal government would have to invest more than $400 billion over the next 40 years to complete the 2050 plan.S. carbon dioxide emissions would be 62 percent below 2005 levels.

" the report said. In the RPS 10% case.doe. jlk. and the electricity generation shares of both coal and natural gas are projected to be lower than in the reference case. and prices. Times Dispatch guest columnist. the revised caps and the consequent need for introducing control technologies and other measures necessary to achieve compliance with the caps would raise the cost of electricity from coal-fired power plants relative to those using other fuels.chesapeakeclimate.html The imposition of new. because the cost of the RPS credits that nonrenewable electricity generators must hold increases as the renewable share target becomes more stringent. eia.by 2020. These limits are attainable and implementing them is unlikely to increase our electric rates. It would also require these utilities to enact energy efficiency programs to save an additional 5 percent of electric usage by 2020. 9-19-2007.”SS. 11. The Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) bill sponsored by Sen.org/news/news_detail. it will be necessary for electricity and motor fuel producers to dramatically increase their use of technologies that play a relatively small role in today's energy markets.eia. Lexis. 1/17/2007 . . "This analysis suggests that. The effective price premium associated with using renewable fuels declines over time relative to nonrenewable sources. and cause a "dramatic shift" away from coal and natural gas generation. the projected impacts on coal markets fall roughly midway between the results in the reference and RPS 20% cases. 10-11-2001. In the RPS cases. http://www.cfm?id=247 Virginia has an important choice to make. “EIA FINDS THAT FEDERAL 25% RPS WOULD CAUSE DRAMATIC SHIFT AWAY FROM COAL GENERATION. “Fuel Market and Macroeconomic Impacts. to comply with the twin 25- by-25 mandates. encourage fuel switching. national and regional production. (Figure 22) In general.doe. EIA said the 13-fold increase in renewable electricity generation from 2005 levels would be accompanied by more than a 12-fold increase in the amount of ethanol and biodiesel needed. Jim Madden. and cause the level of coal-fired generation to be reduced. For instance. More evidence EIA Special Report. solar. and biomass -. The impacts on national coal industry production levels are projected to be negative relative to the reference case. http://www. Jim Madden is the president of Chesapeake Renewable Energy. Energy Information Administration said in a report released Sept.RPS RPS would significantly reduce natural gas usage Foster Electric Report. all the nonhydroelectric renewable generation technologies are projected to increase their market share of total generation. If the General Assembly passes this bill.such as wind. such as coal and natural gas. “Support for RPS Legislation Is a Stand for Clean Energy”. Every megawatt-hour of clean energy produced removes the need to generate a megawatt-hour of electricity from other sources.” SS. The overall impacts on coal production depend on both the extent of the projected decline in coal demand and the types of coal expected to be used in the future mix of coal-burning capacity. Virginia would join 23 other states in taking a stand in support of clean energy. more stringent emission caps on electricity power plants would affect coal consumption. Mary Margaret Whipple would require that all retail electric utilities in Virginia obtain 12 percent of their electricity from renewable sources -. Meeting twin 25% national renewable portfolio standards for electricity and transportation fuels by 2025 would require nearly a 13-fold increase from 2005 levels in non-hydropower renewable generation.S.gov. but it's a no-brainer. the U. RPS would remove the need for natural gas.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/epp/chapter_4.SDI 2008 11 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Link.

and would need to grow well over 20 times that to replace gas. Network for New Energy Choices • Report No." he said. “Wind Power: A reality check”. AB. AB.Wind Wind trades off with natural gas Dr.SDI 2008 12 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Link." .8 and 3. Wind power could viably replace natural gas Steve Hargreaves. according to EIA.com/disp/story. 01-07.cnn. it will become a cost-effective power source. wind power's ability to produce 21% of the nation's electricity needs isn't out of the question. respectively—compared to all other generators including advanced coal. Wind power could replace natural gas Loren Steffy. 7/10/08. "The price of natural gas will still be better for vehicles and still be cheaper than foreign oil. http://money. it's worth noting that wind capacity has increased 12 fold since 1990. natural gas.mpl/front/5882292. “Pickens' plan is bold — too bad it won't work”. Reporter. the natural gas will move out. While wind currently only makes up 0. CNN Money. Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). http://www.8% of the country's total electricity production. and nuclear reactors. Houston Chronicle. and as commodity prices rise.0 cents per kWh. June. 7/22/08.html Pickens argued that wind technology will improve as more farms are built. Benjamin Sovacool. "As it moves in.chron. 2007 A similar study conducted by the Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research (VCCER) found that renewable generators fueled by wind and landfill gases offered the cheapest forms of electricity—2.com/2008/07/22/news/economy/pickens_wind/?postversion=2008072214 Despite these challenges.

energy combustors (i. the biofuels used can be shredded material. A number of direct conversion biomass-to. staff writer. or hydrocarbons.SDI 2008 13 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Link. moisture levels. The producer gas resulting from this thermal decomposition can replace natural gas or be further processed to produce syngas (synthesis gas). or pole plant raw material feedstock specifications.or currently no-value biomass from sorting yard operations.and medium-scale electrical generation from biomass and woody waste provides new opportunities to use low.Biofuels Biofuels replace natural gas demand Jerrold E Rudie. panel product mill.com/news/science/1488981/integrated_biomass_technologies/ One of the primary principles of IBT is the conversion of biomass to heat or electrical energy. A number of companies have begun.engineered to make them economical for smaller scale and even semi- portable operations. but direct conversion of biomass to energy requires knowing optimal fuel sizes. red Orbit. they are being adopted by some rural communities and small businesses. These smaller biomass-to-energy units are now available and becoming profitable alternatives to using fossil fuels. is growing. some of the biofuels can be processed into pellets to meet a growing home-use market for wood pellets. or are contemplating. In addition. electrical generators) are being re. hammer milled material. 7/22/08. especially bio-based energy. higher alcohols. The forest products industry in the United States uses almost 100 million dry tons of wood waste annually for energy.redorbit. pulp mill. “integrated biomass technologies”.e. It is usually less expensive to generate bio-based electrical energy locally and distribute it regionally than to transport the biomass to larger regional electrical generation facilities. As smaller units have become available. installation of wood waste or hog fuel gasifiers. The need for energy.. Targeting these biomass residues for their optimal economic use will maximize the value of aJl currently nonmerchantable material. AB. and energy contents. . chips or pellets. http://www. Depending on size and design of the combustors. All logging operations leave forest residues that are unsuitable or too small to meet sawmill. used to manufacture other chemicals such as methanol. Recent interest in distributed small.

then it would likely be met with natural gas. Energy companies are drilling more holes than ever but they have been unable to increase domestic production of natural gas for a number of years.000 residential gas customers. every American knows full well the pain of increasing global energy demand. “Nuclear Energy: What We Can Learn From Other Nations”. AB. 1/24/05. Clearly.nei.Nuclear Power (1/2) Nuclear energy trades off with natural gas Nicholas Loris. we are now facing a downturn in domestic natural gas production capacity. 7/2/8. higher prices and tightened supply have some nations. been able to keep the lights on. http://www. for the most part.cfm U. . As a result. And because energy sources. with the price of gas breaking the $4 barrier and natural gas prices increasing.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/wm1977. electricity demand is projected to increase up to 40 percent by 2030. The addition of nuclear power plants will mitigate our dependence on costly domestic natural gas and imported LNG to replace domestic production. “WE WILL NEED POWER FROM NUCLEAR PLANTS”.SDI 2008 14 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Link. staff reporter. and other countries are projecting similar increases.S. AB. To produce the same amount of yearly electricity as a single 1. The Nuclear Energy Institute.S. Petersburg Times. experiencing power shortages. Nuclear energy reduces natural gas dependence Ronnie Dubs. AB. St.org/filefolder/white_paper_reducing_demand_natural_gas_1-24-05. http://www. If that demand were not met by nuclear power. especially fossil fuels.[5] While the U. Although natural gas is the energy resource of choice for new power generation plants. “Nuclear Energy’s Role in Reducing Demand for Natural Gas Through Diversification of Energy Sources Used for Electricity Generation”.000-megawatt nuclear plant operating at 90 percent capacity factor requires approximately 54 billion cubic feet of natural gas.S. nuclear energy can be used to generate electricity.pdf What nuclear energy did for U. are global commodities. it can do for natural gas over the next 10-20 years. driving up the price for electricity as well as all the other goods that use natural gas in their production. such as China. electricity supply in the 1970s and 1980s with respect to oil. has.S. Most directly. reporter.heritage. This is equivalent to the usage of approximately 660. growing demand in one part of the world affects the global economy. Lexis Nexis The first thing we need to seriously consider is the avoidance of new power generation capacity using natural gas. Nuclear energy reduces natural gas demand. The Heritage Foundation.[4] The rapid industrial development of both China and India is already placing great pressure on global energy supplies. This would put additional pressure on natural gas reserves. or about one percent of the total residential customers in the U. improving nuclear production—through efficiency gains and building new nuclear power plants—relieves pressure on the natural gas supply and enhances the nation’s energy diversity. Nuclear energy can help meet this growing demand.

as fuel. natural gas fuels the cogeneration plants that serve the projects. Western Canada lacks the extensive unconventional resources that have allowed US production to remain relatively flat for the past three decades. 2005 "Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply Diversificatio Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives & Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Our report confirms that the natural-gas-price reductions projected by earlier modeling studies are consistent with economic theory. Increased renewable energy and energy efficiency will cause an inward shift in the natural gas demand curve. 2007. Natural gas prices are higher than anticipated and likely to become more expensive as supplies diminish. Other project developers are considering gasifiers that would burn another waste product. coal.Nuclear Power (2/2) Nuclear energy decreases natural gas prices. Nuclear power would reduce natural gas demand Ryan Wiser. With the exception of some coal-fired electricity purchased off the grid. Natural gas production in Alberta is declining as the conventional fields that have been the life blood of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin go into permanent decline. Uranium fuel has a fixed price for as long as 30 to 50 years. nuclear). it still is a source. Energy Intelligence Dec. the most common greenhouse gas. a byproduct extracted from bitumen. Similar natural gas price reductions would likely result from increased use of other non-natural-gas energy sources that displace natural gas consumption (e. On the surface. Houston Bureau Chief. leading to lower natural gas prices than would have been realized under the higher-demand conditions. noted speakers at the Canadian Institute's Oil Sands conference. Calgary-based investment bank FirstEnergy Capital predicts that Alberta 's gas output could fall by 1 billion cubic feet of gas per day by the end of 2008 from current production of about 16.4 Bcf/d. 10. Barbara Shook. NatGas. scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence. The Nexen-OptiCan Long Lake project is dealing with the challenge by constructing a gasifier that will convert asphaltenes. in place of natural gas. Coal and heavy hydrocarbons produce large volumes of CO2. Nuclear plants also emit no carbon dioxide. petroleum coke.” Lexis VF Alberta 's massive oil sands production and upgrading facilities require enormous quantities of electricity to power the giant shovels and other equipment and generate steam and hydrogen for converting the bitumen- sand mixture into synthetic crude or finished products. . While natural gas yields lesser amounts.. followed by a similar supply drop in 2009. “Power for Oil Sands Projects Might be From Nukes. Natural Gas Week. One proposed solution gaining a lot of attention recently is nuclear energy.SDI 2008 15 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Link.g. nuclear power seems to be an attractive option.

the Bush administration would like to see competition blossom among LNG exporters."The world gas price will then become as important to Middle East economies as the world oil price. US Key to Qatar US imports of LNG Are key to Qatar’s market TDS 08 “ECONOMY”. Qatar Asia." he added.com/qa/economy. http://www.S. site of the world's largest LNG exports of more than 31 million metric tons per year.traveldocs." 1-12-2004. includes a refinery with a 140. natural gas. Logic suggests that exporters will want to coordinate strategies to prevent a gas price collapse. and Japanese firms and the state-owned Qatar Petroleum (QP). some of OPEC's most important member states shifted their attention from crude oil to LNG exports at a conference convened by the administration of the US President George W.000 bpd capacity. Australia and Oman. Spencer Abraham. Bush to boost US imports of the refrigerated fuel. liquefied natural gas. .5%. The Americans are increasingly concerned about the security of their energy supplies. and several new petrochemical plants will be built in the coming years. Non- OPEC producers like Russia. editor-in. Qatar's heavy industrial base. or more specifically.06. The country's economic growth has been stunning. currently accounting for one-quarter of the natural gas consumed in the world every day.energybulletin. companies are playing a major role in the development of the oil and gas sector and petrochemicals. located in Messaieed. is on the cards as the natural gas business." said Edmund O"Sullivan. The U. "The international trade in gas delivered by pipeline and tanker. While OPEC largely controls global oil supplies and prices. possibly even a successor. are looking at LNG exports to generate new revenue. Qatar's per capita GDP is $67.S. Energy Bulletin. In December. All these industries use gas for fuel. "It's in our interest to develop as many international sources as possible" for US imports of LNG. and the energy ministers of the Organization of Gas-Exporting Countries. Trinidad.chief of the Middle East Economic Digest.net/node/145) // JMP It's 2020. which has dominated the world"s energy market since the 1970s.. Norway. 6. and U. "LNG is clearly going to be a large factor in the world's future energy equation.08.htm Qatar's natural gas liquefaction facilities and related industries are located in Ras Laffan Industrial City. particularly the Gulf-based LNG sector. http://www. The worldwide shift toward LNG will bring in its wake profound political and economic changes in many parts of the world.000. "2020 Scenario: OPEC May Be Replaced. Qatar's nominal GDP. and the 2007 growth rate was 12. OPEC. is set to expand into a global boom with the US as the dominant market. Whisper it those who dare: an OPEC for gas may soon be on the world energy agenda. said at the conference in Washington. US Energy Secretary. and a petrochemical plant. gather in Madrid for their annual get-together to determine production quotas and price levels for the new primary energy source that fuels the global economy . a fertilizer plant for urea and ammonia. but the emergence of a partner. Most are joint ventures between U." he said. a steel plant.SDI 2008 16 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Ext. currently $63. to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. is the major equipment supplier for Qatar's oil and gas industry. will rival the scale and complexity of today's petroleum market. known as OGEC.S. providing a lifeline for the economies of some Gulf states whose oil production is sliding into decline as fields are exhausted. 4 (Hector Igbikiowubo. known as LNG. The United States is without doubt the key market for LNG. European. That scenario may seem somewhat fanciful right now. the umbrella for the dozen or so nations which dominate the market. and have long sought to undermine OPEC's influence in the oil market. had recently been growing at an average of 15%. The Qatari Government's strategy is to utilize its wealth to generate more wealth by diversifying the economic base of the country beyond hydrocarbons.8 billion. US it the vital market for Qatar natural gas. and projected to soon be the highest in the world.

SDI 2008 17 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Ext. but it has deep political implications as well. It also gives the emirate a huge head start on the other Gulf producers. Spain and the US.massively magnifying the small state's geopolitical punch. It signed natural gas megadeals with ExxonMobil and Shell worth $17 billion. Qatar. It proved itself a trusted Arab ally through its support for US policy and military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. which has been assuming a more assertive role in Gulf affairs.html) // JMP In the space of four days in October. and the economic benefits of having a few thousands soldiers kicking around their country. will provide it with the kind of stability and security that its neighbors can only dream about. and has other projects worth an estimated $20 billion with US and European energy giants in the pipeline. particularly by allowing the US Central Command to set up its operational headquarters in the emirate when other Gulf states refused. Centcom is a vital element in President George W. particularly with the United States.is viewed by Washington as vital to the long-term fuel supply. In addition to de facto security guarantees that serve both countries' interests. where and when US forces operate and policy is implemented . having Centcom in Doha gives Qatar a say in how.the world capital of the gas-to-liquids industry by 2010 and the single largest supplier of liquefied natural gas to the United States. www. this has meant that Doha has been given 'access to some top-shelf technology.com/31790. "Is Doha the next Dubai? Qatar's billion- dollar deals with big oil make it an economic heavyweight. All this will make the tiny emirate - OPEC's smallest oil producer . Current LNG production is 15 million tons a year." 12-3-2003. AME Info. worth $12 billion. The ExxonMobil deal. which are increasingly looking to gas as the energy and export-driver of the future. a huge energy market that is ready to undergo rapid and vast expansion in the coming years. According to the Texas-based security think tank Stratfor. Inside the Gulf's next energy superpower whose ambitions shadow those of Dubai.natural gas supercooled and condensed for transportation by ship .' . mainly to Japan. Qatar became an energy superpower. LNG . Qatar has emerged unscathed from the political strains the events of September 11th placed on the United States' relations with the Gulf states. is the centerpiece of these glittering prizes. Bush's war against terrorism and the most active military command in the US defense establishment. is on target to become the world's biggest LNG exporter by 2010 with an annual output of 30 million tons and is pushing to raise production to 45 million tons a year. 3 (AME Info is the ultimate Middle East business resource. Qatar's success in forging these new contractual connections.ameinfo. LNG Key to US/Qatar LNG is the vital internal link to US-Qatar relations.

military equipment in the world. military construction activities in Qatar. Combat Air Operations Center for the Middle East moved from Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia to Qatar’s Al Udeid. Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs. 1995 Washington Quarterly.democracy. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. threats of regional hegemony by renegade states. including a new air operations command center. Nearby Camp As Sayliyah is the largest pre-positioning facility of U.S. free markets. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. command. this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. including a global nuclear exchange. Congress appropriated and authorized $126 million for U. serves as a logistics.pdf The Al Udeid airbase south of Doha. U.S. First. .S. 1/24/08 http://fas. and the rule of law. access to the base there was formalized in late 2000.S.SDI 2008 18 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Heg ! 2NC A. and low-level conflicts. the U.R. Spring.S. Second. operations in Afghanistan and Iraqi.S. Finally. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems.S. Qatar invested over $1 billion to construct the Al Udeid air base during the 1990s: it did not have an air force of its own at the time. power projection and hegemony Christopher Blanchard. Qatar is contributing $400 million to U. Senior Analyst at RAND. the Qatari capital. US/Qatar relations are key basing. In April 2003. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. and U.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. Lexis Under the third option. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (H. U.S. such as nuclear proliferation. On balance. Nuclear war Zalmay Khalilzad. 4986) authorizes $81. efforts to upgrade and construct facilities there. 34 From FY2003 to FY2007. B.S. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. Qatar’s financing and construction of the state-of-the-art air force base at Al Udeid was widely interpreted to be a tacit invitation to deeper cooperation with U.7 million in FY2008 spending to build new Air Force and Special Operations facilities in Qatar. military forces. and basing hub for U.

the Arab countries] import [them]. With the Exception of NATO Member Countries" "Last night. [Al-'Ajami] claims that France hopes to achieve economic development by opening up markets in the Arab countries .SDI 2008 19 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Ext. the Golan Heights.S. an article appeared in the Qatari daily Al-Sharq. military base.Qatar .'they export [goods].is doing the least for the Arabs. Al-'Ajami condemns the Arab leaders for their eagerness to respond to invitations extended by foreign leaders.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP199608 "Qatar is the Largest U. army in the Gulf. The Al-'Udaid air base [in Qatar] is [a source of] power for the U. authored by one Fawaz Al-'Ajami. while we [i.France's invitation to the Mediterranean Union is a case in point.S. with the exception of NATO member countries. who seek to promote their own and their allies' interests . Ethiopia-occupied Somalia.memri. 7/22/08 http://www.' "The columnist points out that instead of helping to promote foreign interests. providing the American occupying forces in Iraq with air cover and logistical aid. brother Fawaz Al-'Ajami forgets that his own country . Military Base." .e. the Arabs should demand [the establishment of] a union to deal with their own issues. Heg Internal Link Qatar is key to US power projection and hegemony. such as Palestine.org/bin/articles. Sudan. MEMRI Middle East Media Research Institute. While stressing the urgency of [establishing] an Arab union.S. and the independence of Lebanon. and there are numerous examples to that effect. Qatar is the largest U.

Global war. inviting its Central Command to set up its forward headquarters at al-Udeid. The Economist.S." he was quoted as saying. Last month he coaxed Lebanon's viciously bickering politicians into ending a crippling 18-month power struggle. while annoying both pro-Israeli Americans as well as religiously conservative Saudis. The emirate's output of liquid natural gas. to attend. whose leader. and fostering a rapprochement between Syria and its estranged Arab brothers. the secular party of the Palestinian president. firmly on the map of international diplomacy. But under the guidance of his distant cousin. Syria and the Islamist parties Hamas in Palestine and Hizbullah in Lebanon on the other. He has sent aid to help Gazans under Israeli siege. is set to double in the next five years. Yet the country has reached out to America's enemies. the long-serving foreign minister.cfm?story_id=11506776 IN 1952. Other mediators failed in Lebanon.S. Qatar has cut the apron strings that traditionally tie smaller Gulf states to bigger. whose lively. The talk now is of Sheikh Hamad healing the rift between Hamas and Fatah. both Sheikh Hamads have generously sponsored the Qatar-based satellite channel. because they were not seen as neutral. and the “resistance” block that includes Iran. a complex of branch campuses from some of the world's most prestigious colleges. the year that Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani was born. Sheikh Hamad broke with tradition to invite Iran's controversial president. Zalmay Khalilzad told the daily Die Presse the Middle East was now so disordered that it had the potential to inflame the world as Europe did during the first half of the 20th century. in time for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. "Europe was just as dysfunctional for a while. But there has been plenty of fast Qatari footwork too. Meanwhile. Qatar has also mediated between insurgent clansmen and the government of Yemen. older regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. and millions more to help reconstruct the mostly Shia parts of Lebanon that Israel bombed in its war in the summer of 2006 with Hizbullah. and more recently also prime minister. and adopted a firmly independent line. Doha. A free week spent in one of Doha's six-star hotels would dull the meanest fighting spirit. too. Following Hamas's election victory in 2006. from oil. But the apparent contradictions in Qatar's policy are now paying off. he is said to admire. http://www. its biggest export. which sticks out of Saudi Arabia into the Gulf like a sore thumb. The emirate he rules now hosts Education City. They enjoy an income per person of $80. According to IMF figures. envoy. The emirate has assiduously wooed the United States. Qatar has also pleased America by regularly hosting Israeli officials.com. “Small country. Economist. Most of that wealth came easily. Qatar had fewer than 40.com/article/politicsNews/idUSL2719552620070827 Upheaval in the Middle East and Islamic civilization could cause another world war.economist. Qatar's emir has stamped this Jamaica-sized patch of flat. Hassan Nasrallah. B. scorched desert. That has strengthened extremism and creates a breeding ground for terrorism.SDI 2008 20 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Middle East War ! A. ambassador to the United Nations was quoted as saying in an Austrian newspaper interview published on Monday. to thrash out an agreement.reuters. Qatar's oil money has certainly helped to make peace. observers have questioned the apparently erratic course of Qatari foreign policy. critical coverage and reform-Islamist leanings continue to attract high audience ratings. bigger sweeteners. as opposed to the army of foreign guest workers who serve them." he said in remarks translated by Reuters into English from the published German. And some of its wars became world wars.000 residents this year surpassed those of Luxembourg to become the world's richest. Sheikh Hamad bin Jasim. and by sending a generous $100m in aid to help those hit by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. big ideas. and there are wags in Lebanon. who number fewer than 200.com/world/africa/displaystory. Yet that plump figure belies the far greater private wealth of native Qatari citizens. As host of the annual summit of Gulf Arab leaders this year.870. But Sheikh Hamad has succeeded in achieving something that other petro-despots have not. for instance. the sheikh publicly scolded America for working to undermine the results of the democratic process in Palestine.000 but who own nearly all the emirate's assets. an airbase near Doha. there is plenty more of that coming. flying them to his capital. Reuters 2007“Middle East turmoil could cause world war: U. Jun 5th 2008. and not a single school. most of them barefoot nomads and fishermen. and acted as an increasingly well-trampled bridge between the Middle East's polarised camps: America and its pro-Western Arab allies on the one hand. The base has one of the biggest stocks of American military supplies anywhere in the world. Mahmoud Abbas.000 people. Qatari property investment has also helped to bolster Syria's sagging economy. Since Sheikh Hamad ousted his father in a bloodless coup in 1995. the country's 950. . LNG allows Qatar to secure its influence in Middle East peace. al-Jazeera. who contend that their politicians pocketed other. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. for instance. Now the problems of the Middle East and Islamic civilization have the same potential to engulf the world.” 8/27. the U.” http://www. "The (Middle East) is going through a very difficult transformation phase. And even if it is just Qatar's money that wins friends.

It enjoys economic ties to Israel. such as Saudi Arabia.SDI 2008 21 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Ext. and a future dialogue on the fate of the militant Shiite Hezbollah's weapons. the largest US military facility in the region. and Israeli officials often participate in meetings and conferences in Doha. Qatar is uniquely suited to help mediate Lebanon's crisis. director of the Brookings Doha Center. Qatar is "rising in regional and even international prominence as a convener of vital conferences. So it does have the US military base. successfully shepherding the negotiations between feuding Lebanese factions to end months of political turmoil and violence. is the only country with good relations on both sides and has the money to back it up. Qatar is in the unusual position of having a foot in both camps. With regional powers. A thumb-shaped peninsula jutting into the Persian Gulf. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first Iranian head of state to attend the annual summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Doha. are often seen wandering through Doha's gleaming shopping malls as guests of Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani. "Just a year ago. In December. Qatar enjoys genial relations with the Islamic Republic. the election of a new president. for its close ties to Iran and influence in Lebanon. but Saudi Arabia is considered an interested party. Qatar . Saudi Arabia was trying to do this [mediation]. . on the Lebanon issue. "Qatar is a tiny fish stuck between giants – Iran and Saudi Arabia. Middle East War Internal Link Qatar’s economic stability is key to peace in the Middle East. citing the World Trade Organization's Doha Round and the Asian Games among others. aligned behind rival players in Lebanon." Mr. where the US and Iran and their respective regional allies are struggling for dominance. and Egypt. an electoral law. Asma. making it one of the higher per-capita income states in the world. Oil and gas amount to more than 60 percent of gross domestic product.html?page=1 Doha. But Qatar is somewhat in between. It's seen as charting an unashamedly independent path in the maze of Arab politics. "Qatar. While many Arab Gulf countries fret about Iran's regional ambitions." Despite its limited size. director of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Center in Beirut. The Damascus regime is viewed with hostility by other key Arab states. Jordan." says Paul Salem. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his wife. but it actively balances this with deeper relations with Iran. Amr adds. Nicholas Blanford Beirut correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor 5/23/08 “Why Qatar is emerging as Middle East peacemaker http://www. Yet Qatar also is Syria's closest Arab friend. investing millions of dollars in major property development projects and providing diplomatic support. hosting the Al-Udeid Air Base. It remains a key ally of Washington.com/2008/0523/p06s02-wome."Qatar's intense mediation bore fruit Wednesday in a last-minute deal on the composition of the next Lebanese government.This tiny Gulf state emerged this week at the forefront of regional diplomacy. such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. "It simply tries to balance all those interests with those of the US. According to Qataris." says Hady Amr. Qatar possesses the third-largest gas deposits in the world and last year became the world's largest liquefied natural gas exporter. In a highly factionalized Middle East.csmonitor.

American firms considering Qatar as a market are encouraged to visit and avail themselves of the counseling and customized services available from the Commercial Section of the American Embassy in Doha. Qatar has a stable currency and the country imposes no foreign exchange controls. The Qatari Government has established credibility among the population and the business community. U. In some cases. power. the country’s economy is growing faster than the evolution of necessary laws and procedures affecting business to keep up. When plans and projects are announced. and contracts are awarded in a generally efficient and transparent manner. health. and providing foreign investors more opportunities. Doing business with Qatar Petroleum and the public sector is in general transparent and efficient. products and services.S. Sometimes regulations are not widely published and are at times enforced with little or no consultation with the private sector.S. it is possible to resolve commercial disputes in Qatari courts.S. In addition. and stands ready to assist US firms in their market development efforts in this dynamic country. When disputes do arise. Commercial service "Market of the Month – Qatar" Doha Qatar SkylineQatar . tourism infrastructure. There are many positive aspects to Qatar’s business framework.buyusa. Qatar is very amenable to western visitors. Furthermore. rent is increasing rapidly given the growth of the economy and the influx of foreign workers into Qatar.SDI 2008 22 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: Qatar Corrupt/Econ not liberalized Qatar has a transparent and liberalized economy capable of increased investment. the Qatari Government aims to engender a forward-looking and highly skilled population.Market of the Month January 2008.Com 08 (U. Commercial Service Doha Opening Ceremony In the last five years. Qatari companies and customers are highly interested in working with Americans and buying U.html) //DG Doing Business in Qatar There is great optimism and excitement among the business community in Qatar. However.S.S. By transforming hydrocarbon wealth into modern health facilities. and security experts consider Qatar one of the lowest crime countries on earth. U. companies report that the customs clearing process is generally problem-free. tourism. There are well-capitalized financial institutions in Qatar. U.gov/sacramento/qatarmarket. Business dealings in Qatar. The US Commercial Service has recently opened an office in Qatar. Shortages in materials and labor are common in this red-hot economic environment. BuyUsa. and throughout the Middle East rely on personal interaction and business relationships take time to cultivate. Qatar has liberalized its trade and investment climate in line with its WTO obligations by reducing tariffs. http://www. Why Qatar? . and high overall inflation continues to be a concern throughout the region. with all of this tremendous growth and development comes some expected growing pains.S. manufacturing. the government permits up to 100% of foreign ownership in agriculture. and western-style education institutions. and projects involved in Qatar’s natural resources. education. exports. though the process is more time-consuming than in the United States. removing unnecessary restrictions and barriers to trade. they are usually realized.S. Commercial Service Director General Israel Hernandez at U. firms also report that industrial standards that are applied in Qatar are favorable to U.

thirdworldtraveler. or LNG. United Press International. with painful effects on the poor. more than from any source except oil. AB Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Tuesday dumped icy cold water on the notion that natural gas will be able to keep the U.com/Oil_watch/Geopolitics_NaturalGas. but also on increasing volumes of liquefied natural gas.SDI 2008 23 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: Domestic Reserves Solve Domestic supply isn’t enough. www. "We have communicated to the Indian government our concerns about the gas pipeline cooperation between Iran and India. Testifying before the House Energy and Commerce Committee.Qatar and foreign suppliers are key Michael Klare – professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. As with oil. economy humming without the uncertainty that accompanies dependence on foreign oil imports. Nigeria and Russia. This country now relies on natural gas for approximately one-fourth of its total energy supply. Greenspan said the nation appeared destined -.to include not only gas produced in North America in its energy mix for the 21st century. “The Geopolitics of Natural Gas. America could become heavily dependent on foreign suppliers for essential energy needs. the Bush Administration has been applying pressure on New Delhi to cancel the project. Ever since India announced plans more than a year ago to build a natural gas pipeline from fields in Iran to its own territory via Pakistan.or doomed -. Natural gas provides approximately 14 percent of the energy used to generate electricity in this country. Hil Anderson 16 Junnn 2008. including the NATO powers and Japan. But the Indians have continued talks with Islamabad and Tehran over the pipeline plan. Lexis Nexis. Gas is also used as a feedstock for the manufacture of hydrogen. 45 percent of home heating fuel and 31 percent of the energy and petrochemicals consumed by agriculture and industry. claiming it will undermine US attempts to isolate Tehran and curb its nuclear efforts. . Many of America's key allies. need for gas from other regions is growing and energy plants seek more gas from foreign suppliers like Qatar. but with those reserves being depleted at a rapid pace and few untapped fields available for exploitation.” 1-23-2006. from overseas." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced after meeting with Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh on March 16.html) // JMP Item. a promising new entrant in the race to develop alternative fuels. are dependent on imports. the economy has become more and more vulnerable to fluctuations in gas supply and pricing-a vulnerability that should be especially evident this winter as gas prices hit record levels. The United States currently relies on North American supplies for most of its gas. 2006 The Nation. a situation fraught with danger for national security. “Natural Gas economics turn international”. The United States is becoming increasingly dependent on natural gas.S. North American LNG won’t be enough to keep up. As a result.

2007 http://www.com/houston/stories/2007/11/26/daily10. according to a model built by the Baker Institute.html Even so." .S. Ford Gunter. November 26.SDI 2008 24 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: Offshore Drilling Solves Oil drilling in the U.bizjournals.S. is not enough to make the country independent of foreign oil. Houston Business Journal. opening restricted areas in the Outer Continental Shelf and Rocky Mountains to drilling and resource development "will not render the United States energy independent nor will it even lower U. dependence on LNG imports in 2015 by a significant volume.

speroforum.asp?id=15596&t=Is+Liquified+Natural+Gas+an+Economic+Target%3F The natural gas industry has an excellent safety record. However. . the 9/11 attacks have changed the threat profile.SDI 2008 25 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: Canada Solves Canada doesn’t have the needed resources for natural gas Spero News 6/3008 “Is Liquified Natural Gas an Economic Target?” http://www.com/site/article.S.S. future requirements. it will inevitably increase its imports of LNG because Canada cannot provide enough natural gas to meet U. If the U. is to continue increasing its appetite for natural gas.

pdf The United States promptly recognized the assumption of power by Shaikh Hamad in June 1995 and has welcomed Qatar’s defense cooperation. and educational reform efforts since that time. have been balanced over time by Qatar’s counterterrorism efforts and its broader. Qatari.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718. and enjoy extensive economic links. defense relations have expanded over the last 15 years to include cooperative defense exercises. Ties between the U. relations remain cordial and close. military forces being used in ongoing operations in Iraq. military operations in the Persian Gulf. and the global war on terrorism. Since September 2005. The first resident U. critical of U.S. embassy was opened in March 1973.S. “Background Note: Qatar. Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs. Qatari-U. as well as Qatari political. Qatar sees the development of a world-class educational system as key to its continued success. and Qatar are excellent. the Georgetown School of Foreign Service. Department of State. and other universities including Texas A&M. As a result. Cornell University has established a degree-granting branch medical school campus in Doha.S. 1/24/08 http://fas.S.” http://www. Qatar and the United States coordinate closely on regional diplomatic initiatives. Qatar has donated $100 million to victims of Hurricane Katrina in the U.SDI 2008 26 WHAM! Natural Gas DA US-Qatar Relations Strong US-Qatar relations high. Amir Hamad last visited Washington in 2004. and Northwestern also have branch campuses in Qatar's "Education City" complex. equipment pre-positioning. Gulf states. long-term commitment to host and support U. at times.S.S. especially in the hydrocarbons sector. and President Bush visited Qatar in 2003.S. Afghanistan. and base access agreements.S. .U.S.S. June 2008 Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. 32 U.htm U. Carnegie Mellon University. although Qatari officials have been.security cooperation and economic links U. hundreds of Qataris study in the United States. ambassador arrived in July 1974. economic. Today.defense cooperation Christopher Blanchard. The U. the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Design. cooperate to increase security in the Gulf.-QATARI RELATIONS Bilateral relations are strong and expanding. including members of the royal family.state.S.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5437. US-Qatar relations high. concerns regarding alleged material support for terrorist groups by some Qataris.

Pickens says more than one-third of foreign oil imports will be replaced within 10 years. . they've adopted far more advanced 21st Century techniques in this struggle than we have. 7-9-08.. even video games .html Our dependence on foreign oil greatly increases our susceptibility to terrorism.'s natural gas resources and building new wind-generation facilities. this war will be without winners and losers. it will take a long time.. it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living.SDI 2008 27 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Dependence ! 2NC A. Natural gas is the only way to break oil dependence AgWeb. "Ethanol is an ugly baby. A sister initiative to reduce oil dependence would go a long way toward easing the terrorist threat.S. pop music.eg/2004/705/op5. By taking advantage of the U. from which no one will emerge victorious. They use blogs.We also need to face some hard facts about terrorists: In many ways. he doesn't see it as a feasible option due to the lack of resources.com/rj-eskow/a-national-security- initi_b_27355. poetry . he says nearly 8 million vehicles in the world are capable of running on natural gas. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another." Hydro power : "It works great.. police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights." he says." he says. has several fuel options. Nuclear : "Nuclear will work." he says. art.org. Ethanol : Pickens admits ethanol is not going to be the energy solution in the U... He says they haven't been developed as they should because foreign oil was too cheap for too long.ahram. websites.S. "But. Societies would close in on themselves. He also believes building wind farms in rural America is a fabulous opportunity to turn a local economy around. Additionally. "Natural gas is the second largest natural resource in the country. C." The Plan Pickens believes the best candidate for breaking the addiction to foreign oil is natural gas . with some being better than others. by allowing us to become more neutral brokers in the Arabian peninsula. to build support and find recruits. Coal : "Coal is just not going to do it.com. This could lead to a third world war. Extinction Sid-Ahmed ’04 (Mohamed. "It is the only resource in America we have that can make a difference. non-Democratic regimes in the Middle East. He says it burns cleaner. but says he likes it better than foreign oil.. emails.S. Huffington Post 8/16/06 http://www. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet. But. CM Pickens says the U. by forcing us to continue supporting widely-hated.S. tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. Oil dependence causes terrorist attacks. B. as outlined in his plan.huffingtonpost.htm What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails. but it's our baby. is cheaper and is domestic. video." He also says the country has to develop more wind farms and that the U. RJ Eskow.political analyst for Al-Ahram weekly “Extinction!” http://weekly. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds." he says. “Pickens Plan: Creating an Energy-Secure Future”. has a better potential for large-scale wind power than any country in the world. Natural Gas : Pickens believes natural gas is the best option for a transportation fuel source. Wind/Solar : Pickens applauds the use of both wind and solar as renewable energy sources. LexisNexis. we will all be losers.

bc The conventional wisdom goes like this: Manufacturers are crumbling. chief of current economic analysis at Statscan. though high commodity prices elsewhere are still benefiting Canada. the fastest in more than a year. Nuclear war. which is clearly the weak part of the economy. or manufacturers . Russia.2 per cent in October in a month when a strong currency was supposed to have battered exports and sent shoppers on U. rising 0. of all things." he said. "If there's one sector that's collapsing. a full $10-billion stems from a turnaround in manufacturing.8 per cent at the start of the year." Low natural gas prices are the key reason. spending sprees.or even shrinks? In that case. Statistics Canada said yesterday. Low gas prices kill the economy Tavia Grant. lexis.Thing is. rich against poor. fellow. 28 But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates . Of that.S. or so we're told. Factories are being shuttered. shoppers abandoning malls and growth has hit the skids. it's not retailers. according to Philip Cross. consumers crossing the border are denting domestic retail sales. 2007 Saturday Numbers give the lie that slowdown fears. That pace has accelerated from just 1. drooped. December 22. China. Of that. . B. according to Philip Cross. the effect of border shopping has been muted. The Globe and Mail. Instead. Council on Foreign Relations. Annual growth is now running at 2. The data say otherwise. representing an extra $13-billion in the economy. "The big turnarounds this year have been in manufacturing and wholesale. summer pp. and economic growth has withered.SDI 2008 28 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Econ ! 2NC A. we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North. chief of current economic analysis at Statscan. Walter Russel Mead. India - these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the '30s. Consumer spending and factory output were key drivers of growth .while the energy sector. a full $10-billion stems from a turnaround in manufacturing.it's natural gas. Economic growth once again topped forecasts. 1992 New perspectives quarterly. 12-22-07. that may all be wrong.8 per cent.

in response to a proposed facility. November 18. according to climatologist Dr.) The fallacious technique of arguing against the "safety" of a technology by citing some potential misuse is not unique to LNG--it is used by environmentalists to oppose other life-promoting technologies. (And in the case where the danger comes from a foreign aggressor. To "prove" that fossil fuels cause cataclysmic climate change--first." Fortunately. anti-fossil fuel policies. "a very serious problem. Second. it is the aggressor. First. one might expect energy-short state governments to eagerly approve corporations' proposals for new LNG facilities. such as propane. In 1995.8 on the Richter scale! LNG's admirable safety record is the result of two fundamental factors. temperatures. since it can become explosive and flammable only under rare conditions. bowing to pressure from environmentalists." The environmentalists' proclamations of danger and doom are not honest errors based on an overzealous concern for human safety and well-being--they are a dishonest scare-tactic to make their anti-industrial policies appealing to those who do not share the environmentalist belief that nature should be preserved at human expense. of the $200 million lost by apple-growers over the Alar scare." Environmentalists got the pesticide DDT and the apple preservative Alar off the market with claims that each causes cancer--based on studies using mice fed the equivalent of over 100. of the millions who continue to die unnecessarily due to the DDT ban. of the energy crises created by anti-nuclear. The Sierra Club calls LNG "extremely volatile. LNG producers protect against these conditions by using advanced safety technologies and procedures--such as double-hull tankers. Safety in the pursuit of technology is a valid concern. Washington Times. contrary to environmentalist propaganda. November 16. hazardous material--it is far less hazardous than many commonly used substances. LNG is not an especially volatile. Patrick Michaels. that must be eliminated. they are repeatedly rejecting them. global warming--environmentalists cite the predictions of wildly inaccurate computer models that. as Alan Greenspan has observed. 2004) “Environmentalism's Dangerous Campaign for "Safety"” The Ayn Rand Center for Individual Rights http://www. environmentalists' screams about "safety" should be dismissed out-of-hand and not be permitted to further thwart technological progress. Would environmentalists accept the argument that since arsonists can do massive damage by burning trees-- witness the California forest fires--trees should be banned? The fact that something can be misused to harm others is an argument only for forbidding that misuse (where possible)--not for depriving individuals of the many beneficial uses of trees. But what about the claim that the risk of infiltration by terrorists justifies banning LNG--such as Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's statement. there is a proven technology that could enable Americans to access plentiful natural gas stores from overseas: Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)--natural gas cooled and condensed into a portable liquid. Given their track record of dishonest arguments and the anti-industrial goals that motivate them. only one person has died in an LNG-related accident. safety-systems with automatic shutdown. perform "worse than a table of random numbers when applied to U.S.000 times normal human consumption.SDI 2008 29 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: Impact Turns LNG is safe – the environmentalists are wrong Alex Epstein (Providence Journal. but only within the context of a preeminent regard for human well-being and its greatest benefactor: industrial civilization. such as nuclear power and biotechnology." and labels LNG tankers and storage facilities an "enormous risk" that "endanger our health and safety. LNG facilities in Kobe. global cooling in the 1970s. planes. now. Japan." A documentary popular among opponents of LNG claims that an LNG mishap or a terrorist attack on an LNG facility could incinerate an entire city. 1/600th its original volume. pseudo-scientific methods environmentalists use to condemn technologies as "unsafe. and the use of offshore facilities far removed from population centers. that LNG facilities would displace "plant and animal life" or that LNG tankers may require harbors to be dredged--but one objection has been more effective than all the rest combined: the claim that LNG is catastrophically unsafe. And this technique itself is just one of the many pseudo-logical. 2004. that there "is simply no way that it makes sense to site an LNG [facility] in this location in the post-9/11 world"? This is no more valid than saying that because terrorists can do massive damage by crashing planes into buildings.aynrand. not one of his unlimited potential targets. In the last 60 years in the United States. instead. Is LNG a disaster waiting to happen? Consider its history. or LNG. Observe that environmentalists are utterly indifferent to the human toll of abandoning "unsafe" technologies--of natural gas shortages. Countries like Japan use LNG accident-free to get nearly all of their natural gas. planes and buildings should be banned. . Environmentalists level many objections against LNG--for example. went undamaged in an earthquake that registered 6.org/site/News2?news_iv_ctrl=1077&page=NewsArticle&id=10421 OZ America's domestic shortage of natural gas is. Given these facts.

no terminal impact Dr. The most attractive targets are the boats: 1.000 injuries.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.iomosaic. PHD Professor of Structural Engineering 2006 “Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths” updated 2006.000 deaths and upwards of 20. It is important to keep in mind that this is the worst case scenario. the LNG industry has amassed 60 years of transportation and operational experience world wide without a single casualty being inflicted on the general public. then LNG facilities and tankers are not good targets. Because the amount of energy required to breach containment is so large. It is legitimate for an inquiring and concerned public to ask pertinent questions and by the same token it is legitimate for those well versed in LNG safety to answer those questions. Terminals are equipped with emergency fire detection mechanisms designed to minimize the impact of fires resulting from terrorist attacks or accidents. it is clear that there is a significant resurgence in proposed projects to import LNG into the United States. A report. It is totally inappropriate for segments of the media and groups of citizens to engage in fear-mongering and initiate campaigns of misinformation." The effects of any safety problem will not spread. it will not explode. The zone of impact will be moderate but will not extend anywhere close to the 30 miles predicted by some illinformed groups. http://archives1.SDI 2008 30 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: Natural Gas Unsafe It is unlikely that a large impact would result from LNG explosions Council on Foreign Relations. If mass casualty is the goal of any terrorist group. If the cloud encounters populated areas it will quickly find an ignition source before covering large populated areas and burn back to the spill site. put out by Good Harbor Consulting assessing the risk of a proposed LNG terminal in Providence. Rhode Island.pdf) In summary. concluded that a successful terrorist attack on a tanker could result in as many as 8. then.cfr. We have taken into account the new threats that have emerged in the form of terrorism in our evaluations as well. G. in almost all cases the major hazard presented by terrorists is a fire. Finally. In this paper we have drawn upon the vast amount of field measurements and data.org/publication/9810/ OZ But an attack on an LNG terminal might not be so damaging. since the Cleveland accident of 1944. operational and engineering information regarding LNG gathered over the last 60 years to candidly address the safety issues associated with large scale LNG importation. not an explosion. The overall conclusion is straightforward. written by Eben Kaplan 2/27/06 “Liquefied Natural Gas: A Potential Terrorist Target?” http://www.000-foot tankers with double hulls and specially constructed storage tanks that keep the LNG cold. Along with this renewed interest it is understandable that there is increasing concern regarding the safety associated with large scale LNG importation. A report on LNG safety and security by the University of Texas' Center for Energy and Economics explains LNG "tanks require exceptionally large amounts of force to cause damage. significant impact will be felt in the vicinity of the release. A. In the highly unlikely event of a very large scale release of LNG on land or water. Melhem. . As long as the LNG vapor cloud is unconfined.

president. simultaneously. even with the use of an explosive charge (that is large enough) on a storage tank. "you could have a petty officer in the Coast Guard making this call.iomosaic.SDI 2008 31 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: Terrorism Turn There are precautions in place Council on Foreign Relations.S. The opposition comes from both the general public as well as politicians. there is also a heavy security presence. Melhem. during the winter. Saraf "Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths" updated 2006.S. access to the terminals is controlled. written by Eben Kaplan 2/27/06 “Liquefied Natural Gas: A Potential Terrorist Target?” http://www. This significantly limits the extent of impact. Let us examine the issue of possible LNG explosion when the liquid and vapor are not confined. As a result. In addition. Facilities handling large quantities of hazardous materials. unless the LNG vapors contain high fractions of ethane and propane (more than 20%). and security personnel perform regular threat-response drills. and tanker crews must pass a security check before being allowed to board the vessels. G. Explosion test data on methane/ethane mixtures in the vapor phase support these statements1.000 m3 of LNG in a heavily populated area. Any private vessels that drift too close are sternly turned away. firefighting tugboats. Cole-style attack remains an important security concern for defense planners. http://archives1. LNG pool fire hazards are localized and as a result thermal radiation effects (2nd degree burns) are typically confined to within one or two pool diameters from the edge of the flame. At LNG terminals.org/publication/9810/ OZ What safety precautions are taken to prevent such attacks? LNG tankers approaching U. the city of Boston denied permission to an LNG tanker from entering port and unloading its much needed LNG cargo at an Everett LNG terminal. The most likely outcome of a terrorist attack will be a large pool fire and possibly a low order deflagration/flash fire of finely divided LNG liquid droplets aerosolized by the blast force of the explosive charge. The risk of a terrorist attack because of LNG is not likely. As a result.S." When a passenger jet enters restricted airspace over a nuclear plant. such as LNG terminals and tankers.cfr.pdf) AP After the terrorist attacks of 9/11. S. who must decide whether to repel the plane with force.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks. A." he says. government agencies and the public became more concerned about chemical storage and transportation facilities that are close to populated areas. waters must provide ninety-six hours' notice. were initially identified as attractive terrorist targets. methane is relatively insensitive to initiation as compared to heavier hydrocarbons. Dr. The likelihood of this scenario is equivalent to each of the authors of this paper winning the power ball or megabucks lottery several times. it is the U. divers." Fay says. and as well as proposals to build new LNG terminals. Bridges along the tanker's route are closed and nearby airports suspend flights. First. Knake says. The same scenario is feared for large LNG storage tanks. There is a lot of debate surrounding the potential for an LNG explosion. Kalelkar. Yet when a private craft drifts too close to an LNG tanker. Available data and good understanding of explosion dynamics indicate that it is not possible to detonate LNG vapors. Dr. Furthermore. allowing the Coast Guard to provide a small flotilla to safely escort the boat to its destination. LNG tankers and bulk storage tanks are not attractive targets for terrorists who seek to achieve mass casualties. a U. and a helicopter. there is significant opposition to proposals for LNG terminal expansions. . security and surveillance of LNG terminals/facilities and ships coming to port to unload LNG cargo have increased considerably. A. (Dr. S. Tankers are inspected and screened for explosives before they are allowed to approach land. LNG has to be vaporized and then mixed in the right proportions with air in order to obtain a composition that can burn. The scenario feared by all involves a terrorist using an explosive charge (or flying an airplane) to breach and possibly detonate one or more storage tanks on a ship containing up to 125. "It doesn't require trained experts to evade the Coast Guard. In 2002. Added security detail includes local police boats.S. "It's not a difficult thing to do if you're determined to do it. Because of its low cost and high impact.

he’s looking for jobs for his members. therefore. women and. the United States can deny its adversaries the wherewithal they use to harm us. Tell the truth for a change.. likely to be cited in other news reports and academic papers and may ‘inform policy’ as the saying goes. sadly. The union delegate speaking to congress has alternate motives. asks: ““Where is the BLEVE going to occur in this tank? Where are you going to direct the flames back at this tank to heat up the liquid? How are you going to build up the pressure so that it overcomes the safety release? When you can explain this all logically as per the ship’s construction. It is a voluntary. which I believe is US territory and a US second register.IAGS. Cindy Hurst. rightwing activists and religious organisations and associated with the ‘Make American Free Coalition”‘ which tells us it is “spearheading a global effort to transition the transportation sector to next-generation fuels and vehicles that can utilize them. a Lieutenant Commander in the US Navy Reserve. America won’t be safe: “…members of the public remain adamantly opposed to bringing LNG with its foreign ships and crews into their “backyards.SDI 2008 32 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: Hurst Turns Hurst is wrong and biased – empirical evidence & testaments show Maritime Accident Casebook was created by Bob Couttie in June 2007. A sniffy person might point out that American men. free resource for seafarers and those who train them and support is always welcome. a grouping of politicians. that Moss-type tanks are particularly at risk.” The mechanism posited by Hurst is a boiling-liquid-expanding-vapor-explosion or BLEVE and suggests.org/2008/06/25/lng-terrorism-al-quaida-is-winning/ OZ Sharp eyes picked up on a headline in Maritime Safety News for 16th June: “The LNG Threat:Liquefied Natural Gas Tankers Remain Giant Terror Targets on the extremist American website The Cutting Edge. where does the author get her information from? In case anyone really is interested many of the new LNG ships. popular among both seafarers and maritime accident investigators.” perhaps rightly so. women and children are more at risk from other American men.. . “As for all this rot about flags of convenience. or any other LNG tank.” The assumption of the paper is that LNG carriers are manned by non-American crews and flagged under non-US registries and until they are. more likely. I am master of one of these potential LNG bombers they seem so worried about and it distresses me beyond words to be slandered in front of Congress. The paper originates with the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. She does not suggest any means by which this could occur.” Of course. Scott Conway who has served eight years onboard LNG tankers and who is intimately familiar with the construction of the Moss spherical tanker. “Cut out this nonsense and scaremongering. it may be that the rest of the world has a far better idea of the real potential for using an LNG carrier as a weapon and whther or not one is likely explode if attacked.The Terrorist Threat to Liquefied Natural Gas: Fact or Fiction? from a political analyst with the US military’s Foreign Military Studies Office. 6/25/08 http://www. Every American president subject to actual or attempted assassination has been the victim of an American with the sole exception of William Kinley in 1901. logically or illogically.” Neither Hurst. nor The Cutting Edge provide a practical scenario for creating a BLEVE in a Moss tank. including the one I am master of is registered in the Marshall Islands. terrorism is the red herring being used to convince the American public I am a threat. Says Hurst: “The rest of the world does not seem to share the same security and safety concerns as Americans regarding LNG. credible source. Indeed. wrongly so. It quickly established itself as an authoritative.. based on a report citing a DNV executive. This could be a potential problem. and is. Anyone who knows anything about LNG tankers knows it’s almost impossible to blow such a ship up.” One of MAC’s correspondents. My crime is to be non-American. one of Hurst’s sources.” Or. criticised the Cutting Edge version of the Hurst report: “Yet another article by partisan authors scaring the pants off the American public. Eight times more Americans are killed by American bullets every year than died in the 9/11 attack at ‘foreign’ hands.maritimeaccident. children than from Al Quaida. We would have ignored it except that the report was based on a paper. then we’ll talk seriously. in command of an LNG tanker.

Demand has been rising at 6. Another Gulf-wide project . the first time that has happened since the oil industry was nationalized in 1975.com/31790. the GCC's current gas reserves are estimated at 975 trillion cubic feet.5 percent a year and some of these states are already finding themselves hard put to meet it. the gas will be used for domestic consumption rather than export. By 2005. but always winds up getting shelved . Inside the Gulf's next energy superpower whose ambitions shadow those of Dubai. Collectively. Perhaps the prospects for the gas grid will fare better as regional demand for Qatar's abundance of this source of energy inexorably mounts. the GCC's overall deficit is expected to hit 4.as it did when the GCC oil ministers met in Doha in early November. . But Iran is having to struggle to attract sufficient technology and funds to develop its massive reserves and lags far behind Qatar's breakneck development program over the last 10 years or so. Unilateral sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States prevent American companies from providing investment.ameinfo." 12-3-2003. like many others involving collective GCC participation. Even then. which is vulnerable to blockage.html) // JMP Qatar is ideally positioned to become the leading gas supplier to its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council. But with the exception of Qatar these are mostly what is known as 'associated gas' linked to oil production and not capable of meeting the rising demand for gas. and 6 billion cubic feet per day by 2010. 3 (AME Info is the ultimate Middle East business resource. Saudi Arabia has an estimated 25 trillion cubic feet of oil-associated gas and is in the process of opening up its upstream gas sector to foreign investment. is ripe for foreign investment. yet the idea. for instance.SDI 2008 33 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: Iran LNG Iran isn’t capable of supplying the US. www. "Is Doha the next Dubai? Qatar's billion- dollar deals with big oil make it an economic heavyweight. The idea has been kicking around for decades. Iran is the only regional state that can rival Qatar's gas reserves.5 billion cubic feet per day. and is trotted out with every regional crisis. rather than inside the Gulf. Its big offshore South Pars field in the Gulf. The GCC has long talked about building a regional gas grid based in Qatar's North Field to supply the alliance's member states.would provide export terminals for tankers on the Arabian Sea coast. has foundered because of a lack of political will. But that is proving to be a laborious process and it will take years before production begins.an oil pipeline starting in Kuwait to link all the GCC countries . Recurring power shortages in the region have given the project some urgency.Sanctions and lack of technology and infrastructre AME Info. Shipping routes out of the Gulf have to pass through the chokepoint Strait of Hormuz.

2 million onshore acres under lease. The chief executive officer (CEO) of Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake Energy Corp.all east of the Rockies. and affordable. Pg. Report No. 14-18% in 2008. Gas is produced in 22 of 50 states. Prices are. Recent shale discoveries." According to McClendon. 3-D seismic data for 17. distributed a "Gas Manifesto" at the Natural Gas Roundtable on September 27 making the case for each of his claims. which disperses the benefits of greater production and use. Fayetteville Shale. Chesapeake. McClendon went on. indeed.S. McClendon insists that gas is comparatively cheap .Warming (1/2) Gas is the only viable way to reduce emissions. the CEO claimed. and the world. and U. 8.SDI 2008 34 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better. later. Chesapeake's costs have at least doubled in the past five years. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) employs a definition of "proven" gas reserves that he considers obsolete. given the "structural increase" in gas prices and improvements in horizontal directional drilling (HDD) and well-completion technologies.S. they launched an aggressive leasing program to acquire proven developed and undeveloped reserves and. gas is and should remain the preferred fuel for new power plants. Meanwhile. but milk prices are up 110%. Forth Worth Barnett Shale.S.S." On the demand side. he told FNGR. the developing global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) "virtually assures" that the days of $10+ price spikes "are over in the U.priced at roughly 50% of the Btu equivalent price of oil. "There's a lot more gas out there than anyone realizes. switching to gas as a primary fuel would spare Detroit a return to the "econobox" cars manufactured in the 1970s and 1980s. McClendon reminded the group of energy insiders. most metals are up 400-500%. grew from an initial investment of $50. and independents "are now producing at a loss. gas plants have predictable construction costs and time lines. McClendon and partners bet that unconventional gas formations like tight sands and shale would become more economic. 10-5-07. and oil is up 100-150% over the same period. The company now has a 10-year inventory of drilling sites. Chesapeake is gas-heavy. "change everything we know about gas supply in the U. 2663. The company has been exploring or acquiring assets in the Mid-Continent. 12. Texas Gulf Coast." McClendon told the Roundtable. South Texas. captures reserves in vertical but not horizontal plays. and one big reason is that the U. Permian Basin. In addition to being cleaner. Foster Natural Gas Report. possible and probable reserves. Ark-La-Tex and Appalachian Basins. Senator Don Nickles (R) as board members. On environmental grounds. The current definition. . "it's a great time" to be a gas consumer because the 1 Bcf/d rise in gas demand for power is "more than offset" by a 1 Bcf/d drop in industrial and space heating demand.alternative energy will fail." The prospects are equally sunny for gas prices. trade deficit? It's simple: Use natural gas instead of oil in the transportation sector. After the 1998- 1999 price collapse. The latest Potential Gas Committee study by the Colorado School of Mines estimates a 75-year supply of natural gas. CM Aubrey McClendon is pushing natural gas as clean. In any case. and Chesapeake expects 18-22% in 2007. higher than five years ago. “No Restraint: Chesapeake Energy CEO Continues Offensive To Promote Natural Gas Over Coal”. Production growth is at 19% this year.7 million acres. Delaware Basin. abundant. Gas should even begin to back out gasoline and diesel usage. which can be substantial. with only about 8% of its holdings in oil. which boasts former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating (R) and former U. From 2000 to 2006. the best solution for global warming and national energy security. and fuel prices can be hedged for 15-20 years. and 12-16% in 2009. and 10 Tcf of estimated proved reserves . "Want to reduce OPEC's power and reduce U.S.000 to become one of the largest gas producers in the United States and the largest independent gas producer." despite what is assumed on Capitol Hill. LexisNexis.S. and Canadian studies together promise over 120 years of North American supply.

: Omnitek Engineering. however. Corp. rising oil prices and the real threat of global warming make abundantly available and inexpensive natural gas the fuel for the future. Omnitek has developed a system to convert any existing diesel engine to a clean-burning natural gas engine at a fraction of the cost of a new engine. the state's largest gas utility. says his company's 53 percent market share in the Greater Boston area should be closer to 90 percent. C1. More evidence The Boston Globe. “Omnitek Engineering. 1-17-08. “As oil prices spike. Steve Holliday. LexisNexis. "There's a huge opportunity here to clean things up by burning natural gas. CM As the price of crude oil continues to increase and the thread of global warming and air pollution remains. Diesel engines have been the backbone of the transportation industry. Announces New Chinese Language Website”. CM Natural gas delivery companies say they have the answer: Convert to gas.Warming (2/2) Natural gas is better to solve global warming than alternative energy M2 Presswire. fuel economy and durability. Omnitek estimates the population of heavy-duty diesel vehicles and stationary engines around the world which can be converted using the Omnitek Diesel-to-Natural Gas Conversion System and offer the best ROI approaching ten million engines. diesel powered trucks and buses are used worldwide. more versatile. the chief executive of National Grid PLC. BUSINESS section. Valued for their power. more secure. "Natural gas is way out there as the cleanest fossil fuel there is. Natural gas has emerged as a perfect solution to these challenges. they are heavy polluters and significantly contribute to global warming. and. Pg.SDI 2008 35 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better. The companies say that the price of natural gas is significantly lower than heating oil right now and that switching to "green natural gas technologies" will help prevent climate change. everything right now is going the way of natural gas. the British company that recently purchased Keyspan Energy Delivery. spiking oil prices offer opportunity”. natural gas is inexpensive and clean burning. 11-11-07. by some measures. the search for an alternative fuel becomes increasingly important. natural gas utilities find opportunity For gas utilities." In the struggle for supremacy in New England between heating oil dealers and natural gas utilities. more environmentally friendly." Holliday said. Readily available in many countries from indigenous sources. . LexisNexis. Corp.Prevailing economic factors. Gas is cheaper.

No Tradeoff No tradeoff between natural gas and forms of renewable energy Dr. .S.SDI 2008 36 WHAM! Natural Gas DA No Link. 01-07. primary energy supply in 2030 that they did in 2005. Network for New Energy Choices • Report No. Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). 2007 Despite the rapid growth projected for biofuels and other non-hydroelectric renewable energy sources … oil. and natural gas still are projected to provide roughly the same 86-percent share of the total U. June. coal. Benjamin Sovacool.

Section: North America: Forecasts. January 31. gas demand should rise by about 1.000 MW are expected to have extended outages for installation of environmental control equipment this year. . Pg. while several coal-fired plants amounting to around 20.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4226453779 &format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4226453782&cisb=22_T42264537 81&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8146&docNo=5 Assuming normal weather. Near-normal weather should increase both air-conditioning load and space-heating demand. the analyst predicted.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.SDI 2008 37 WHAM! Natural Gas DA No Link. thereby placing even more pressure on domestic production and imports to keep up with demand. 23.Alt Cause Weather conditions are central to the demand placed on the natural gas sector.3 Bcf/d this year. 2008 http://www.lexisnexis. Global Power Report. Melanie Tatum.

Russia. Because natural gas accounts for nearly 90 percent of the cost of fertilizer. we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North. rich against poor. China. petrochemical industry. June.S. relies on natural gas as a primary feedstock as well as for fuel. escalating natural gas prices in 2005 created significant economic hardships for U. . Benjamin Sovacool.76 B. farmers. The U. Network for New Energy Choices • Report No.Economy Module A. Nuclear war. 01-07. 2004. As well. 28 But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates . economy.000 jobs to foreign plants where natural gas was much cheaper. 1992 New perspectives quarterly.or even shrinks? In that case.SDI 2008 38 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Aff ! T/. the Wall Street Journal reported that the petrochemical sector had lost approximately 78. some manufacturing and vindustrial consumers that relied heavily on natural gas moved their facilities overseas. On February 17. High gas prices devastate the economy Dr. Walter Russel Mead. summer pp.S. 2007 Natural-gas induced price spikes have been devastating to the U. fellow. for example. Council on Foreign Relations. Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS).S. India - these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the '30s.

April 2. the price for oil and natural gas tends to fall. as alarming numbers of subprime mortgage foreclosures were reported. but now we just have to add the recession element to the equation.com/us/lnacademic/returnTo. Currently.lexisnexis. Natural Gas Week." a gas futures trader in Houston said.SDI 2008 39 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Ext. Economy ! T/ Internal Link High energy costs kill the US economy Alan Lammey. "There's been a lot of concern that troubles in the US housing sector could infect the broader domestic economy and dent demand for energy. stifling growth. bc ''If you put a cap in America . FEATURE STORIES. When prices go up." More evidence Matthew Warren.do?returnToKey=20_T4167316719 Alarm bells are going off everywhere regarding the state of the economy. The hottest of topics. While some economists think that the economy will weather this storm. especially in countries many of which import a lot of natural gas and rely on that for their economic growth because they don't have coal. What we need to do on power generation in America . ''America gobbling up even more natural gas on the global marketplace is not just bad for our economy." A direct link exists between energy costs and the economy. the only choice the utility has actually is to go to natural gas and expand their renewable portfolio. So if a full-blown recession emerges. and now big troubles in the US housing market are the main catalysts of concern. That leaves less to spend on other goods and services.. but that will be relatively incremental. businesses and consumers put more of their money into keeping the lights on and keeping their gas tanks filled.'' . and we weren't even in recession during that time. others think recession is now inevitable. on the electrical utility sector today. from the crumbling subprime mortgage market to growing concern from the US Federal Reserve over stout energy prices. and it's very substantial. "Historically. supply and demand issues for natural gas will ultimately drive prices just like we've seen over years.. However. is pursue the research agenda and with massive incentives. but almost all view recent economic events and intractably high energy costs with trepidation. growing consumer indebtedness. when the country slips into recession. high energy costs. and ultimately natural gas prices in the near future. 2007.. we saw prompt-month gas futures fall down to the $4 area. then that would seem reasonable. 9-29-07.. lexis. Weekend Australian. it's bad for the global economy. And a sluggish economy could take a toll on oil. LC http://www. The most recent signal: A huge fallout in the mortgage industry. "Last year.'' Connaughton told journalists in Washington.

these allegations. This completely changes the rules of the game. Issue no. This could lead to a third world war. Experts don’t agree fully on safety boundaries. . But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. despite the myriad security measures in place. More studies are needed to bring about sound conclusions and ensure the greatest possible degree of public safety. However. members of the public remain adamantly opposed to bringing LNG with its foreign ships and crews into their “backyards. the technology is a secret for nobody. as time passes and the role of LNG grows worldwide. tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. A small scale LNG leak could cause natural gas prices to spike temporarily before returning to normal.hml A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki. even if -. http://weekly. we want to know the hazards initially. including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq.S. LC Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is more than just a potential weapon of mass destruction in the right locale. as well as the allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD. B. from which no one will emerge victorious. except for the two bombs dropped on Japan. LNG imports comprised only three percent of overall natural gas consumption in the U.Terrorism Module A. A large-scale leak or attack that leads to human-casualties could cause prices to spike severely and not return back to their original rates. June 30. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated. Cindy Hurst. Thompson. it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. During a March 21. can sway the stock market and affect global pricing of energy and the economy. Empirical data demonstrating what would happen if there were to be an attack are virtually non-existent. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet. We have reached a point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events.and this is far from certain -. Because of this uncertainty. “Extinction!” August 26-September 1 2004 . Despite the unknown outcomes of human emotion. Additionally. proved to be unfounded. it is equally important to try to assess the economic impacts that an LNG incident might incur. of the second district of Mississippi. with no knowledge of nuclear technology. As it turned out. at the time. 705.” The variables that would affect the economic impact are too numerous to make such a predetermined calculation possible. had no choice but to capitulate. Societies would close in on themselves. Emotion. whether positive or negative. to increase by 8. Today.eg/2004/705/op5. but we also want to look at economic conditions that relate to it.the weapons used are less harmful than those used then. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another. 2008. observed that although it is important to consider the dangers of LNG. nuclear weapons have been used only to threaten. Japan. LNG could potentially lead to terrorism in the U. So far.S.org. Building a terminal offshore will certainly mitigate a possible attack. Congressman Bennie G. it is critical and cannot be omitted from any potential calculation.” perhaps rightly so. it would be difficult to thwart people willing to die to carry out an attack. as will enhanced security measures. Managing Editor for Al-Ahali. “…Terrorists would just as well like to keep a port out of business for a week or two and that would be an absolutely significant incident… So. political military research analyst with the Foreign Military Studies Office and Lieutenant Commander in the United States Navy Reserve. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be used to justify anticipatory measures. the potential impact of a terrorist attack on these tankers or terminals increases. in 2005.SDI 2008 40 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Aff ! T/. as well as to ensure the security of an important commodity. Extinction Mohamed Sid-Ahmed. It also offers terrorists an awesome economic target wherever in the world it can be found--even on the high seas. Energy analysts expect LNG imports into the U. we will all be losers. Clearly. 2007 hearing.7 percent annually through 2030. this war will be without winners and losers.ahram. I think part of our challenge is how we look at all the consequences associated with the handling of LNG. police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).S. It is impossible to measure anticipated human emotion.

.S. is asking for more time to study a proposed liquefied natural gas facility in Fall River.com/massachusetts/content/projo_20040921_ma21lng. on its own. The potential for problems lies within the people who are somehow involved in the industry. “It’s the location of the ports.projo. on the other hand. LNG ships and tankers are structurally sound. "Lloyd's executive likens LNG attack to nuclear explosion" 9-21-2004. A number of known vulnerabilities exist within the LNG industry. Nor are the questions. such as LNG. Deputy General Counsel of the Marine Engineers’ Beneficial Association (MEBA)." 6-17-2008. 5-7-07. Unfortunately. Certainly. It would be equally imprudent to assume that these targets are impenetrable. A weapon of mass destruction? Maybe. it would be possible for someone to work under a different identity on board one of these tankers and avoid detection. "A thorough review would confirm this conclusion. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (1/2) Terrorism Likely With Natural Gas—Spiking Prices David Wood. In other words.SDI 2008 41 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Ext. Supply diversity cuts risk exposure. The Coast Guard does. Many ships operate under grossly unregulated “open registry” or “flags of convenience” registries and often originate from ports with poor security systems in place. solve the security of supply issue misses part of the problem. ports. Such scenarios are not difficult to develop and suggest that dependence on a few very large LNG suppliers would provide only limited security of supply for consumers. no method is in place to ensure these crews are who they claim to be. and where the LNG is loaded. The answers are not reassuring. Under the current system. meanwhile. Due to a lack of any meaningful international regulatory oversight. Romney sent a letter to FERC Secretary Magalie Salas yesterday. "Terrorism threatens natural gas supply. staffwriter. and Mexico) will. and who gets on the vessel [that is important]. security measures currently in place make LNG terminals and ships extremely hard targets for terrorists. bc Events such as vessel collisions or terrorist attacks on LNG shipping in the Straits of Hormuz could also have short-term effects on LNG supplies. these same background checks are not performed on foreign crews. Liquified natural gas tankers on the world's oceans remain as giant terror targets." Romney wrote. Inadequate vetting of crews LNG shipments often originate from politically unstable and unfriendly countries and regions.html AMK Governor Romney. Nigeria. However. These vulnerabilities lie in the human factor. Can Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) be used as a lethal weapon of mass destruction? That question lies at the heart of the debate about increasing use of this important energy resource. Algeria and Egypt. it would be imprudent to believe that terrorists are either incapable or unwilling to attack such targets. Although this is an issue of security for all cargo ships. www." LNG is very dangerous and can be a WMD Hurst. Inadequate access to LNG shipping and strategic stocks of LNG could cause future supply interruptions even with extensive onshore LNG regasification capacity in place.134600. Spero News. Background checks are conducted on Americans by the Coast Guard and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). 8 – political-military research analyst with the Foreign Military Studies Office and a Lieutenant Commander in the United States Navy Reserve (Cindy. Some of the locations in which LNG originates include Qatar. LNG sites could be terrorist targets – the danger is real Providence Journal 4 (Mark Reynolds. saying terrorism must be considered as a possible threat. The US belief that building tens of new regasification facilities in North America (Canada. lexis. US. Oil and Gas Journal." said William Doyle. it is even more critical for ships carrying potentially dangerous cargo. no completely trustworthy and uniform system is in place for vetting foreign mariners. "There is simply no way that it makes sense to site an LNG facility in this location in the post-911 world. require crew lists from all vessels entering U. saying federal regulators haven't adequately studied potential dangers posed by a terrorist attack on a tanker. causing price spikes for natural gas customers. However.

gas supply.SDI 2008 42 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Ext. not an explosion. because of LNG's explosive potential. They are also good targets because "if you take out those terminals.Associate Editor of the Council on Foreign Relations February 27. Unless the tanker is struck at a very high speed or the object striking it is very sharp. Because the amount of energy required to breach containment is so large. Eben. Terminals make better targets because an attack could result in a massive fire that could potentially kill scores of people. in which terrorists detonated explosives after pulling alongside the warship in a small vessel. The most attractive targets are the boats: 1. Cole attack. AP. http://www. A report. Are LNG ships and terminals potential terrorist targets? Yes.S. may be placed in the path of an LNG tanker or on the tanker itself. sailing it toward a major population area and detonating the cargo. says Rob Knake. experts say.S. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (2/2) LNG provides a target for terrorist attacks.org/publication/9810/.000-foot tankers with double hulls and specially constructed storage tanks that keep the LNG cold.000 injuries. 2006. It is important to keep in mind that this is the worst case scenario. a homeland-security private consulting firm. has specifically cited LNG as a desirable target. there is a chance LNG would spill out and cause a massive fire. if such a breach did occur.]" Knake says. Rhode Island. 6. The 2000 U. Other possible methods of attack include firing missiles or rocket-propelled grenades at a tanker and or air strikes. Pipelines are not as attractive because the flow of gas can quickly be cut off and an explosion easily contained. you could have a significant disruption [in the U. for example. put out by Good Harbor Consulting assessing the risk of a proposed LNG terminal in Providence. "Liquefied Natural Gas: A Potential Terrorist Target?". such an explosion could cause the cargo to spill and ignite. . LLC. is often cited as an example of such an attack. the worst-case scenario being a massive explosion." The Sandia National Laboratories report assesses four potential ways terrorists may target an LNG tanker and the worst potential outcomes: Ramming: Terrorists may attempt to drive another vessel into an LNG tanker or to divert a tanker into a stationary object. Terminals are equipped with emergency fire detection mechanisms designed to minimize the impact of fires resulting from terrorist attacks or accidents. Kaplan. But an attack on an LNG terminal might not be so damaging. senior associate at Good Harbor Consulting. such as mines. The impact of an assault would vary depending on the size and location of the attack.S. Al-Qaeda. If powerful enough. Hijacking: The most catastrophic scenario involving an LNG tanker involves terrorists taking control of an LNG tanker.cfr. External Attack: There are several ways terrorists may attempt to assault an LNG tanker. it is unlikely that a breach of the hull will occur.000 deaths and upwards of 20. Triggered Explosion: Explosives. concluded that a successful terrorist attack on a tanker could result in as many as 8. However. in almost all cases the major hazard presented by terrorists is a fire. Tankers are particularly vulnerable as they traverse inland waterways en route to their destinations. A report on LNG safety and security by the University of Texas' Center for Energy and Economics explains LNG "tanks require exceptionally large amounts of force to cause damage.

staffwriter. http://www. it is not until the thermal radiation intensity falls below 1. whether at sea or in ports. in less than a minute. LNG’s properties make it uniquely dangerous if there were to be a spill or fire.pdf) //DG Accidents Terrorism isn’t the only risk. make obvious targets.html AMK One report does describe hypothetical fires that might erupt if gas leaks from a tanker in its liquid form changes into a gaseous form and ignites when it comes into contact with a flame. The assertion. www. which is contested by industry experts. "FACT SHEET:Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)" November 2007. A “worst case scenario” could set structures aflame out to 2." according to the chairman of Lloyd's. However.projo. LNG carries an inherent risk of accidents. Regulators. "Just about any expert will come up with a different assessment regarding LNG depending on the parameters and assumptions they have. said federal regulators have not changed their analysis. "Lloyd's executive likens LNG attack to nuclear explosion" 9-21-2004. would be capable of inflicting third-degree burns a little less than a mile away.15 An LNG attack would be like a nuclear bomb going off. a spokesman for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. staffwriter. a British insurer of natural gas port facilities like the ones being proposed in Fall River and Providence. even from far distances Providence Journal 4 (Mark Reynolds." LNG explosions could lead to massive fires and intense burns. will review the safety of different LNG proposals on a case- by-case basis. delivered last night to business leaders in Houston. "We stand by all of our analysis on this matter.134600. injuring many Providence Journal 4 (Mark Reynolds. failing to study larger ships that are planned and assuming that only some of the LNG tanker contents are released. Peter Levene.134600." he said. Levene described Texas as a "state at risk" and said that securing its remote oil facilities is a "particular challenge." said Levene. was in a speech that the chairman.SDI 2008 43 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Aff ! T/ Safety Accidents will occur and are highly dangerous Ewall. who emphasized the LNG shipping industry's safe track record.energyjustice.067 feet and burn people as far as 6." "Gas carriers too.com/massachusetts/content/projo_20040921_ma21lng.949 feet away. (Mike.6 kilowatts per square meter that there is no damage to exposed humans. Bryan Lee. According to a December 2004 report by Sandia National Laboratory. FERC allows damaging thermal radiation beyond the site boundary as long as its level is below 5 kilowatts per square meter.projo. he said. "Lloyd's executive likens LNG attack to nuclear explosion" 9-21-2004." said Lee. In one instance.html AMK A terrorist attack on an LNG tanker "would have the force of a small nuclear explosion. The report’s idea of “worst case” didn’t include the actual worst case. 07 – founder and director of Energy Justice Network. .com/massachusetts/content/projo_20040921_ma21lng. "Specialists reckon that a terrorist attack on an LNG tanker would have the force of a small nuclear explosion.net/naturalgas/lngfact sheet. as do all industrial facilities. www.14 an accident or terrorist attack on a liquefied natural gas tanker could cause “major injuries and significant damage to structures” a third of a mile away and could cause second-degree burns on people more than a mile away. the blaze.

Here we see the shallowness of Green reformism. n77 As the current mass extinction has progressed. eat up the time global corporations have to work out plans for conversion to mass coal burning. n69 erosion. Some Greens have hesitated to come out strongly against LNG for fear this will slow down conversion of "dirty" coal-fueled to "clean" gas-fueled power plant. Here. and to find out -. and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are relatively mild examples of what might be expected if this trend continues. one by one. the more successfully it can resist a stress.over the plants and animals of the world. will open forest ecosystems to commercial exploitation and Pacific LNG (a consortium made-up of British Gas Group. mankind pursued this domination with a single- minded determination to master the world. To accept that the snail darter. and then humans also would become extinct. . Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada. In addition to food. In this sense. n68 2. Fall 2004. in which each knot is connected to others by several strands. peoples' resistance-such as the Green movement has pioneered-can have an effect on a much wider social field than that of the immediate points of confrontation. Yabog and Gasyrg. n76 4. Many. Pest. n75 Moreover. No one knows how many [*171] species the world needs to support human life. unbranched circle of threads -. In Bolivia ( with gas reserves of 52. and Spain's Repsol- YPF) plans to construct a 700 km pipeline from Bolivia to a port in Chile from which LNG will be shipped to a Baja California terminal proposed by the American corporation Sempra. The new role for LNG forced on the ruling class by the depletion of US domestic wells in fact offers the same leverage for activism that opposition to nuclear power did in the 1970s. Aside from the issue of how clean mass methane-fueled generation really is-or how large the world's fossil gas reserve really is-not to oppose LNG construction is to forego one of the few opportunities available to move society to the mass conversion to solar energy that Greens have supposedly always as a principal goal. 4 ("LNG: The Next Battle Line. Bolivia's President. could cause total ecosystem collapse and human extinction.Scientific value is the use of species for research into the physical processes of the world. -. as many as ninety percent of the existing species perished. and new species replaced the old. humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. as the number of species decline. www. and Biologically diverse ecosystems are within species by reducing the number of individuals. or ( if it is ever possible ) fusion power. filling narrow ecological niches. . Extinction David N. each new animal or plant extinction. Diner (Judge Advocate General’s Corps of US Army) 1994 Military Law Review. the rivets from an aircraft's wings." n79 By causing widespread extinctions. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. a large portion of basic scientific research would be impossible. Theoretically. the effect of each new extinction on the remaining species increases dramatically. n72 Without plants and animals. [l]ike a net. if not most. BP-Amoco. and exploit nature for the maximum benefit of the human race. and flood control are prime benefits certain species provide to man. n67 In past mass extinction episodes. a project hardly popular with the Bolivian people. -. species offer many direct and indirect benefits to mankind.greenparty.SDI 2008 44 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Aff ! T/. Both trends carry serious future implications.Environment Module A. LNG hurts environment through reducing innovation and causing ecosystem destruction Greenparty. the number of species could decline to the point at which the ecosystem fails. the world's biological diversity generally has decreased. in fact on the nature of our total future society. As biologic simplicity increases. they may be critical in an indirect role." Reprinted from Synthesis/Regeneration #35. mankind may be edging closer to the abyss. At some point. In a closely interconnected ecosystem. This trend occurs within ecosystems by reducing the number of species. or Dismal Swamp southeastern shrew n74 could save mankind may be difficult for some. the LNG issue has the potential to be the next major battle line. Scientific and Utilitarian Value.html) Opposition to LNG terminal construction is more than "not-in-my-backyard. plutonium breeder reactors. Ecological Value. the greatly stepped-up pace of natural gas extraction outside the US envisioned by LNG proponents threatens native ecosystems around the world. Lexis No species has ever dominated its fellow species as man has.pollution control. exploitative technologies. was forced to resign from office and flee to Miami after tens of thousands of workers. tame the wilderness. Furthermore. and biodegradation. in effect. humans live off of other species. n70 oxygen production. species are useless to man in a direct utilitarian sense. Bridas. The spreading Sahara Desert in Africa. On October 17. "The more complex the ecosystem.which if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole. With fossil fuel reserves moving towards peak and decline around the world ( whatever time frame one accepts ). sewage treatment. such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple. farmers and indigenous people marched on the Capital in protest of Lozada's give-away of Bolivian resources. 74 protesters were killed. because their extirpations could affect a directly useful species negatively. In most cases.Ecological value is the value that species have in maintaining the environment. with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects. people have assumed the God-like power of life and death -- extinction or survival -. Nonetheless. characterized by a large number of specialist species. 2003.3 trillion cubic feet ). . n71 3." Any increase the United States' dependency on foreign fossil fuels can only intensify the nation's existing imperialistic politics. Biological Diversity. -. Like a mechanic removing. So why should the world be concerned now? The prime reason is the world's survival. is an area where decentralized. and mankind may someday desperately need the species that it is exterminating today. and yet the world moved forward. Bolivia's unemployment rate is 30% and 70% of Bolivians live in poverty. Utilitarian value is the direct utility humans draw from plants and animals. two in-the-works projects. n73 Only a fraction of the [*172] earth's species have been examined. These ecosystems inherently are more stable than less diverse systems. For most of history.by allowing certain species to become extinct -- would not be sound policy. so does the risk of ecosystem failure. . Plants and animals also provide additional ecological services -.org/LNG. harelip sucker.The main premise of species preservation is that diversity is better than simplicity. in other words. Like all animal life. B. resistance to anything less than full conversion to democratically controlled renewable energy will. all of which are intrinsically centralized. the loss of a species affects other species dependent on it.

320 The report cautioned that leakage from natural gas storage structures can be especially hazardous when they cause natural gas to migrate into drinking-water aquifers or escape to the surface.000 miles of oil pipelines. 4.321 . 160. Environment ! T/ Internal Link Natural gas production results in loss of ecosystems Dr.SDI 2008 45 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Ext.4 million miles of natural gas pipelines. One report from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory noted that leaks can occur due to improper well design. and1. are susceptible to serious accidents that can pollute the air and water of local communities. 2007 Oil and natural gas storage facilities. processing and transportation – produces substantial amount of pollution and toxic waste. Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). operation. there are more than 150 refineries. Network for New Energy Choices • Report No. vegetation. 01-07.000 offshore platforms. Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). mining. the production o fossil fuels and uranium – the drilling. June. Benjamin Sovacool. June. in addition to significantly adding to the cost of natural gas and oil infrastructure. 01-07. and crops. More evidence Dr.” Leaked natural gas can significantly endanger life and property. 410 underground gas storage fields. water resources. Benjamin Sovacool. Each can degrade their surrounding environment and negatively impact the health and safety of Americans. In the United States. creating a “significant safety risk. 125 nuclear waste storage facilities. construction. 2007 In addition to the environmental damage caused by fossil fuel combustion. maintenance. Network for New Energy Choices • Report No.

The chairman could not be reached for comment yesterday. Lloyd's. was also posted on the Internet weblog Talk Show American.projo. in an abbreviated form. The same abstract. although a text of his speech contains a footnote. Levene's company. Levene also did not specify Texas LNG port facilities and tanker ships that might be at risk.134600. Dr. is the world's second-largest commercial insurer. staffwriter. Some critics of the proposal in Fall River have spoken in apocalyptic terms of potential LNG disasters. on the Web site of Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor in July.html AMK Levene did not name the specialists in his remarks.C. J. Records kept by federal regulators show that several LNG port facilities have been proposed in Texas. www. no official reports by government regulators have made comparisons between the various LNG catastrophes that experts have hypothesized and destruction from an atomic bomb. "Lloyd's executive likens LNG attack to nuclear explosion" 9-21-2004. . The footnote attributes the observation to the author of an article posted. But to date.K. They do not show any existing facilities.com/massachusetts/content/projo_20040921_ma21lng. Daly. apparently authored by the same person.SDI 2008 46 WHAM! Natural Gas DA Aff AT: Levene Their expert Levene is denied – his evidence is false and biased Providence Journal 4 (Mark Reynolds.

The Department of Energy predicts that the US will have to increase natural gas imports by 600% over the next 25 years to meet demand. the fact that new LNG terminals -." according to the GAO. These are in place and are being followed. as "ports generally lack plans for dealing with economic issues.SDI 2008 47 WHAM! Natural Gas DA AT: The Coastguard can Solve The Coast Guard will not be able to protect the natural gas imported to the U. no breaches of cargo tanks have occurred and of the 30 LNG tanker incidents that have happened since 2002. "LNG tankers are some of the most heavily regulated and closely guarded vessels that come into any port in the US .000 LNG shipments delivered worldwide since 1959." The GAO said that while there are multiple response plans in place to deal with an attack on a vessel or LNG facility.particularly along the US Gulf Coast -. Sullivan. Ports. 2008. CG Said Unprepared. such as prioritizing the movement of vessels after a port reopens. facilities and emergency service agencies plan and prepare for both. all were minor and none involved the loss of the ship or its cargo. "Coast Guard headquarters has not developed plans for shifting resources among units." The third challenge is "some ports report difficulty in securing response resources" needed to respond to either a manmade or natural disaster. lexis) –CMM The seaborne supply chain bringing natural gas to the US is becoming even more exposed to terrorist attack and disruptions and the very agency charged with defending the nation's ports and harbors is getting stretched dangerously thin. The second is strictly economic." according to the GAO report. The first is dealing with a spill and a terrorist threat. "These increased demands could cause the Coast Guard to continue to be unable to meet the standards it has set for keeping US ports secure.4 trillion cubic feet per year.S. "There are already very strong protocols that the Coast Guard has. "We have received the report and are currently reviewing it. "GAO Report: LNG Tankers Remain Vulnerable. Natural Gas Week. "Some units' workloads are likely to grow as new liquefied natural gas facilities are added. Other security measures include shutting down the port to any other traffic hours before the LNG carrier arrives and keeping an exclusion zone around the vessel while it is offloading its cargo." Coast Guard spokeswoman Angela Hirsch told Natural Gas Week ." Some of those security measures include the LNG tankers being escorted from the harbor entrance to the terminal by armed Coast Guard vessels. with imports projected to increase eight-fold to 4. Brian Salerno testified that of the 40. According to the federal Energy Information Administration." Hirsch said. such as escorts and boardings . . USCG Rear Adm. For fiscal year 2006. According to the GAO. the GAO report said the Coast Guard cannot meet its own requirements for protecting either LNG carriers or oil tankers entering US waters." the GAO said. two LNG-laden tankers arrive at one of five US terminals every three days. but that number is expected to quadruple by 2015 as demand grows and more receiving capacity opens." January 14. the Coast Guard allocated four new ships for LNG security. but not together. 8 (John A. That was the conclusion of a US Government Accountability Office report released last week that challenged the nation's ability to protect its energy supply chain. "A lack of resources has hindered some Coast Guard units from meeting their self-imposed requirements for security activities. LNG is expected to play a large role in that. is the main reason that red flags are being raised about the Coast Guard.are being built and scheduled to begin coming online in several years. During that hearing. A similar GAO report in March led to a hearing by the congressional Committee on Homeland Security. stakeholders face three main challenges in making them work. but no requests were made for additional resources in 2007 or FY 2008. In particular.