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Overcoming the energy crises.

The government has conceded its inability to address the energy crisis that has jeopardized the countrys industrial production on the one hand and has brought misery to the masses on the other. Prime Minister Gilani has told an Energy Conference in Islamabad that the government cannot resolve the energy issue on its own while Petroleum Minister Naveed Qamar has pronounced that the government has no immediate solution at hand to stem the deepening energy challenges. It was revealed by the Prime Minister that the gap between production and demand of energy will be doubled in 15 years and unless addressed jointly by all stakeholders in the public and private sectors, the countrys development process will be in jeopardy. The Prime Minister also announced formation of the Government-Industry Council to recommend measures to tackle the challenge. That the country is faced with grave energy crisis and that there is dire need to overcome it through public-private partnership has dawned on Prime Minister Gilani now after completing three years of his power stint. He is certainly not alone to ignore this vital national issue. His predecessors have displayed equal callousness towards power generation. Its however, never too late to fall in line with the national imperatives. Whats essential is the commitment and sincerity on the part of the rulers to achieve the objective. Now that he has realized the gravity of the situation its hoped that he will personally pursue the issue in right earnest to lift the nation out of the energy impasse. The situation calls for short term as well as long term planning to boost power generation as well as to boost oil and gas production in the country. Its hoped that the Government-Industry Council, constituted by the Prime Minister, will come up with logical, practicable and public oriented proposals to overcome the challenge. The Prime Minister ought to ensure that the recommendations made by the council are expeditiously processed and implemented on war footing. Pakistan has already fallen decades behind in the construction of water reservoirs. Indecision has unfortunately marked the successive governments approach to this sector that is so vital for the economic survival of the country. Ironically, our past and present rulers lacked vision about the countrys energy needs of the country or were and are motivated by selfish designs to the detriment of the national interests.

policies of country leaders for energy crises.


While Ziaul Haq, Nawaz Sharif, Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf did not prepare any plan to meet the countrys future energy needs and failed to build any water reservoir, the BB and Zardari administrations opted for quick fix solution through corruption, prone, IPPs and RPPs with unprecedentedly high cost primarily for their alleged personal financial gains. None of them however, paid attention to the generation of low cost Hydel power through construction of dams. Successive governments remained engrossed in the so-called effort to build consensus on the politicized Kalabagh dam and ignored other viable projects such as Bhasha dam. While India has built scores of dams and hydel power generation units since the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, Pakistan has constructed only about half a dozen small and big dams over the past half a century. Because of Pakistans failure to utilize water of the rivers assigned to it under the Indus Water Treaty by constructing water storages, India is usurping their water and is building dams and power generation units on these rivers. Pakistan that produced 60 per cent Hydel power in 1960 is today producing 64 per cent fromoil and gas. And the hydel generated power costs about rupee one per unit as against Rs 15 per unit produced through oil and gas. The successive governments unfortunately failed to harness the potential of hydro power despite persistent demand by the energy experts as well as the international donors.

Report released by the petroleum.


Interestingly, a report released by the Petroleum Institute of Pakistan has warned that Pakistan will be unable to substantially develop its indigenous energy sources of hydel power and coal by 2025-26 under the current policies. The energy import requirements of the country may also grow from present 30 per cent to 75 per cent of the energy mix by 2025-26 costing over 50 billion dollars per annum in foreign exchange. The report further says that Pakistans energy sector is in a state of crisis and over the past few years had negatively impacted the social and economic development of the country. Its a pity that Pakistans rulers have remained insensitive to the growing power needs for countrys development as well as for domestic consumption. The present government is particularly unmoved despite public outcry over power outages that have mounted to about ten hours in the cities and towns. The situation in the rural areas is even worse. The industrial cities including Faisalabad, Sialkot, Gujrat, Gujranwala and Lahore are experiencing worst ever electricity and gas shut down. The countrys economic hub Karachi is also being subjected to merciless electricity load shedding. With the advent of summer, the plight of the masses especially in small towns

and rural areas is simply miserable due to power outages that invariably stretch to 12 to 15 hours a day. On top of it is the Gas companies machinations to subject the industrial cities in Punjab to discriminatory cut in gas supplies from three days a week to the total stoppage seriously affecting the national productivity. The present governments tragedy is that it has a tendency of picking up quarrels with other political parties and state institutions. Instead of devoting itself to the resolution of the national issues and mitigation of public hardships, it opted to confront the Supreme Court with no rhyme or reason. The whole effort of the government is at present revolves around its bid to save President Zardaris assets abroad built allegedly through clandestine commissions and kickbacks during Benazir Bhuttos tenures in power. It also opted for political bouts with PML(N) and to wasted its precious time that could have been utilized for envisioning plans for the development of various sectors including the energy. On the contrary, the country would have benefited a lot from a cooperative and supporting relationship between the two major national political parties. Its hoped that Prime Minister Gilani will not waste any more time in frivolous pursuits and devote himself to the resolution of issues such as electricity shortage, unemployment, poverty and high cost of living.

Sector Organization:
The electric power sector in Pakistan is operated by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation (KESC), with additional generation contribution from Independent (private) Power Producers (IPPs). WAPDA is responsible for supplying power to all of Pakistan, with the exception of Karachi, which is supplied by KESC. Currently, 15 IPPs operate in Pakistan under a Build-Own-Operate (BOO) basis. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regulates the power sector in Pakistan, which includes power generation, transmission and distribution. NEPRA is also responsible for determining electricity rates in Pakistan.

Growth in Pakistans Economy:


Robust economic growth-rates over the past several years have encouraged Pakistan to ignore fundamental weaknesses in the economy. Yes, Pakistans economy is growing; thats the good news. Pakistans economy is performing at a very high note with GDP growing at an exceptional rate, touching 8.35% in 2004-05. In its history of 58 years, there has been only a few golden years where the economy grew above 7%. This year official expectations are that GDP growth rate will be around 6.5 7.0%. For the coming years, the government is targeting GDP growth rate above 6%. The bad news is that with this growth comes higher electricity consumption and greater pressure on the countrys electricity resources. Unless Pakistanis government, but individual citizens as well act now, the countrys future will indeed be dark, in more ways than one.

Consumption of Electricity:
The survey said household sector has been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption followed by industries 31.1 per cent, agriculture 14.3 per cent, other government sector 7.4 per cent, commercial 5.5 per cent and street light 0.7 per cent. As per Pakistan Economic Survey 2010-11, electricity consumption has increased by 8.6 per cent during first three-quarter of last fiscal year. However, a top level WAPDA official maintained that electricity demand surged up to 13 per cent during last quarter.

Current Scenario of Electricity Supply in Pakistan:


At present, demand for electricity exceeds supply. Power outages and planned power cuts load-shedding are an everyday occurrence. In addition to their economic costs, electricity shortages foster political instability. Last summer angry public protests in Karachi and riots in Liaquatabad demonstrated how close many Pakistanis are to reaching the limits of their patience. A widespread power outage affecting much of the country last September triggered panicky rumours of a coup. This unrest may be only a foretaste of things to come. Absent drastic action, Pakistans electricity situation is expected to get far worse in the years ahead. Keeping in view the past trend and the future development, WAPDA has also revised its load forecast to eight per cent per annum as against previous estimates of five per cent on average. Even the revised load forecast has also failed all assessments due to which Authority has left no other option but to start load management this year, which may convert into scheduled loadshedding over a period of two year, sources maintained.

The country needs a quantum jump in electricity generation in medium-term scenario to revert the possibilities of load-shedding in future due to shrinking gap between demand and supply of electricity at peak hours. According to an official report, the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the financial year 2011-12. No power generation projects were commissioned during this fiscal year and the total installed capacity of electricity generation remained 19,478 MW to meet 15,082 MW firm supply and 14,642 MW peak demands. Malakand-lll (81MW), Pehur (18MW) and combined cycle power plant at Faisalabad (450MW) were planned to be commissioned during the year 2007. Besides this, Khan Khwar (72MW), Allai Khwar (121MW), Duber Khwar (130MW) and Kayal Khwar (130MW) are expected to be completed in 2008 along with Golan Gol (106MW) and Jinnah (96MW). Moreover, Matiltan (84MW), New Bong Escape (79MW) and Rajdhani (132MW) are expected by 2009 while Taunsa (120MW) is likely to be completed by 2010. WAPDA had also planned to install a high efficiency combined cycle power plant at Baloki (450MW), which is expected to be completed by 2010. In addition of these, power plant 1 & 2 of 300 MW each at Thar Coal with the assistance of China are also planned for commissioning in 2009. Moreover, efforts are also under way with China National Nuclear Corporation for the construction of a third nuclear power plant with a gross capacity of 325 MW at Chashma, they added. Meanwhile, provincial rivalries and widespread public opposition have significantly slowed the governments plans to build dams capable of generating electricity. Many Pakistanis argue that large hydroelectric projects should be a last resort, after low-cost energy conservation measures have been fully utilised.

Alternative Energy Resources:


The policy makers of Pakistan have so far failed to understand one thing. They do talk about making dams and setting up nuclear power plants but why do they not understand the importance and benefits of alternate energy sources such as solar, windmill energy etc. They are cheap and quick methods for producing electricity. Pakistan is a very blessed country because solar energy is available in most cities all year round similarly wind energy is readily available in the coastal areas. These energy sources if tapped can be of great help in reducing the current demand supply gap. On the other hand, hydropower and coal are perhaps under-utilised today, as Pakistan has ample potential supplies of both, at a time when these resources provide for relatively little of Pakistans energy needs. Pakistans proven coal reserves are the worlds sixth

largest, and the government intends to increase the share of coal in the overall energy mix from 7 to 18 percent by 2018 a course that may make sense from an energy standpoint, but which carries troubling environmental implications. Nuclear power at this point accounts for barely one percent of Pakistans energy consumption. The government has announced plans to develop a generating capability of 8,800 megawatts (MW) of nuclear energy by 2020, compared to the countrys current output of less than 450 MW. But this goal is unlikely to bereached unless Islamabad is able to persuade the United States and other western countries to help it develop civilian nuclear technology, an idea certain to meet with resistance in the West. Nonetheless, renewable energy labours under severe handicaps in competing with conventional energy hidden subsidies that allow for lower conventional energy generation costs, for example, and policies that permit conventional energy to disregard the costs of the pollution it creates when pricing power. Unless renewable energy is given a level playing field, a major expansion of renewable energy generation is unlikely, and the governments goal of 10 percent by 2015 will not be met. Rural areas across India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal have all implemented successful clean and renewable energy initiatives. Bangladesh, for instance, has experienced considerable success with solar home systems financed through micro-financing. Pakistans neighbours have something to teach Pakistan, if only it will listen. But solemn promises and soaring rhetoric will not do the job. Preparing for Pakistans energy needs over the next quarter century will require long-term vision, a national commitment widely shared among the countrys political and business leaders, inspired leadership sustained from one government to the next, and most of all, political will to make and carry out difficult choices. Pakistan the country, not just the government of the day needs to decide that muddling through is not enough. Pakistan, as a country, has to get serious about creating an energy strategy, and then and this is the hard part about implementing it.

Alternate Ways to Overcome Energy Crisis in Pakistan.


Energy in all forms is closely linked to economic prosperity of the county. Energy demand is increasing day by day because of urbanization, climate change and global warming. Pakistan is energy deficient country because of its inadequate energy power supply mix, rising energy gap between supply & demand, lack of energy efficiency legislation and its implementation. Conventional ways of generation of electricity energy through non-renewable resources is a long term process and this process usually takes five to ten years. In parallel to this, we should adopt all alternate ways to save and generate electricity through renewable resources to overcome the energy crisis in Pakistan. We discuss below that what the alternate ways to save and generate energy are.

ENERGY CONSERVATION AND ENERGY EFFICEINCY IMPROVEMENT


The first and foremost task is to save and conserve energy in domestic, commercial, industrial and institutional facilities. Every facility is trying to conserve energy but process is too slow because of the lack of the energy conservation legislation and its implementation. The most dominant energy saving activity is the replacement of incandescent lights with compact florescent lighting (CFL). No doubt this activity will save lot of energy but this is not sufficient. The energy saving activities to be adopted in domestic, industrial, commercial and institutional facilities are as follows,

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Insulation of buildings roofs, walls, pipes and ducts. Use of glazed glass at building facades Use of energy efficient materials in buildings Use of high efficiency motors, pumps and controllers Use of Variable Frequency Drives (VFDs) Replacement of conventional heating & cooling by solar water heating & cooling Replacement of electro-magnetic ballast by electronic ballasts Replacement of conventional lighting by LED and Solar Lighting Installation of automatic shut off of lighting Installation of occupancy sensors Installation of exterior lighting controls

Pakistan Engineering Council and ENERCON have made joint efforts to conclude the Building Energy Code 2010 through a task force consisting of experts from various sectors and Izhar Group also contributed in this endeavor but without legislation and its implementation, we cannot achieve energy saving targets. There is a need for quick enforcement of the Building Energy code 2010 so that national energy saving targets can be achieved.

ALTERNATE AND RENEWABLE ENERGY APPLICATIONS SOLAR THERMAL

Solar Thermal is the process of generating heating cooling through solar radiations. Solar Water Heaters are very economical and feasible option for use in domestic, commercial, industrial and institutional facilities. The barrier to the growth of application of solar water heating is the lack of knowledge, skills for installation, operation and use of solar water heaters. The users behavior and wrong perceptions is also one of the main barriers in its growth. The growth of the solar water heaters can be increased by creating more incentives by the government and making it mandatory through Building Energy Code to install solar water heaters in all kinds of facilities. The payback of solar water solution varies from one to two years.

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS
Solar Photovoltaic is the process of generation of electricity through solar radiations. It is commonly called as PV. PV components include Solar Panels, Inverters and Charge Controllers, Deep Cycle Batteries, Mountings, cables and accessories. Solar PV solution is not affordable and feasible as the current price of PV solution is $8 per watt. This high cost is because of 40% duties on PV Components. The recent news in media about zero duty shows that Government has reduced duties to zero but one time zero duty needs more clarification by the Government. If the news of zero duty for all times is correct, this will spur growth in PV sector and this can help in saving energy. Grid Tied is process by which the electricity can be sold back by user to the grid at fixed feed-in-tariff and when electricity is sold back, the energy meter moves in reverse direction. Grid-Tied policy implementation is the real solution to overcome energy crisis in Pakistan. Alternate and Renewable Energy Policy 2010 is almost ready and in last Women to Energy Conference at PEC, it was told by AEDB that this policy will be enforced in January 2011 but so far this policy is also prey to vested interests. This policy can bring revolution in Pakistan if truly implemented.

SOLAR & LED LIGHTING


Solar and LED lighting is really a best energy saving option. The barrier in its growth is the high percentage of duties on import of Solar and LED lights. If the duties are made zero, this sector can grow at faster pace. It is just an estimate that 400 watts of conventional search light can be replaced by 80 Watt LED search Lights. You can see tremendous search lights in Government and Pakistan buildings and about one fifth energy can be saved by just replacement of conventional lights with LED lights. LED lighting has tremendous advantages in comparison with conventional lighting.

WIND POWER
Wind Power is relatively a cheaper alternate energy solution and Pakistan has great potential in wind power. The barrier in its growth is the lengthy process of acquisition of land and coordination issues of wind power developers with the Government Institutions. Implementation of AE and RE policy 2010 can be instrumental in its fast growth of wind power.

ENERGY ADMINSTRATION AUTHORITY


One of the barriers in growth of Alternate and Renewable applications is the lack of presence of one sole Energy Administration Authority for regulation of energy sector. We strongly recommend that that one Energy Administration Authority should be evolved to streamline decision making. Energy Efficiency Improvement and use of alternate and renewable energy applications can bring the country out of energy crises and it will help in reduction of GHS emissions enhancing energy security of the country. Government should provide facilitation through legislation, Private sector should follow the policies and laws and all chambers of commerce and industries should bridge this gap by providing platform where the Private and Government sector should work as team for growth of Alternate ad Renewable Energy Sector in Pakistan.