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CHAPTER 4 - PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY Experiment : A situation involving chance or probability that leads to result called outcomes. The result of single trial of an experiment. One or more outcomes of an experiment. The measure of how likely an event is.

Outcome Event Probability

: : :

EXAMPLE: Problem 1 : A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red. a. What are the chances of landing on blue after spinning the spinner? b. What are the chances of landing on red? Spinning the spinner. The possible outcomes are landing on yellow, blue, green or red. a. b. a. Landing on blue. Landing on red. The chances of landing on blue are 1 in 4, or one fourth. Therefore, the probability of landing on blue is one fourth. The chances of landing on red are 1 in 4, or one fourth. Therefore, the probability of landing on red is one fourth.

Experiment Outcomes

: :

Event

Probability/Solution

b.

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Problem 2

Toss a dice and observe the number that appears on the upper face. a. What is probability of rolling an even number? b. What is the probability of rolling a number less than 4? __________________________________________ __________________________________________ a. b. ____________________________________ ____________________________________ ____________________________________ ____________________________________ b. ____________________________________ ____________________________________

Experiment Outcomes Event

: : :

Probability/Solution

a.

Simple event

An outcome or an event that cannot be further broken down into simpler components. Usually denote by E. Set of all simple events In terms of simple events; sample space is a collection of one or more simple events. Usually denote by S. If the probability space S consist of a finite number of equal likely outcomes, then the probability of an event E , written P ( E ) is defined as:
n( E ) n (S )

Sample space

Probability

P (E ) =

The number of ways event E can occur The Total Number of Possible Outcomes

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EXAMPLE

Refer to Problem 1:
S = { Yellow (Y), Blue (B), Green (G), Red (R) } Let Event A = { Landing on Blue } = { B } Event B = { Landing on Red } = { R } n (S) = 4; Therefore; a. P (A) = n (A) = 1; n (B) = 1

n(A) n(S) =

1 4

b.

P(B) =

n(B) n(S)

1 4

TAKE NOTE: The probability of an event A is a number between 0 and 1 inclusive 0 P ( A) 1

Refer Problem 2:
S= Let Event A = Event B = n(S) = ; n (A) = ; n (B) =

Therefore;

a.

P(A) =

b.

P(B) =

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CHAPTER 4 - PROBABILITY

EXAMPLE ,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10} , given A = {odd numbers} = {1 ,3,5,7,9} Sample space, S = {1 and B = {even numbers} = {2,4,6,8,10} . Find P ( A) and P ( B )

EXAMPLE: A card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that the card is a seven.

EXAMPLE: Two fair coins are tossed. Find the probability that the two heads are obtained.

EXAMPLE: A ball is drawn from a box containing 10 red, 15 black, 5 green and 10 yellow balls. Find the probability that the ball is a. b. c. d. e. Black Not green or yellow Not yellow Red or black or green Not blue

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Venn diagram

A simple way of illustrating the relationship between sets. The sets are represented by a simple plane area, usually bounded by a circle or a closed space.

EXAMPLE: The data below shows a survey of 305 college students. 125 take Mathematics 115 take Accounting 110 take Science 35 take Mathematics and Accounting 30 take Mathematics and Science 34 take Accountings and Science 10 take Mathematics, Science and Accounting a. b. c. d. e. Illustrates the information using a Venn Diagram How many take Mathematics only How many takes Accounting but not Science How many take Science or Accounting How many students who are not taking any subject

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CHAPTER 4 - PROBABILITY

Tree diagram

Illustrates experiments that can be generated in stages. Each level of branching on the tree corresponds to a step required to generate the final outcome.

EXAMPLE: A medical technician records a persons blood type and Rh factor. List the sample events in the experiment. EXAMPLE: Two balls are drawn from a box containing 10 red, 15 black, 5 green and 10 yellow balls. If the balls are selected i) First with replacement and again without replacement. First without replacement and again without replacement. ii) Find the probability if the balls selected are: a. Of the same color b. Not the same colors Green and yellow c. d. Both black

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CHAPTER 4 - PROBABILITY

Probability table

A tabulated form to illustrate experiments that can be generated in stages.

EXAMPLE: A medical technician records a persons blood type and Rh factor. List the sample events in the experiment.

Probability Table: Blood Type Rh Factor Negative Positive A B AB O

EXAMPLE: Refer to the table illustrated below.

Length of Loyalty Remain Not Remain Total


< 1 year 10 25 35 1-5 years 30 15 45

Service
6-10 years 5 10 15 >10 years 75 30 105 Total 120 80 200

a. What is the probability of selecting at random an executive who has been working for more than 10 years? b. What is the probability of selecting at random an executive who would not remain with the company and has less than one year of service?

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Operations of set theory:


i. Unions

A B :

The union of events A and B, is the event that A or B or both occur.

ii.

Intersection

A B :

The intersection of events A and B, is the event that both A and B occur.

iii.

Complements A :

Also denoted by AC and A represents the area (values) not in A

iv.

Disjoint A B = 0 :

Also called mutually exclusive events are two events that does not contain have similarities.

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EXAMPLE: Two fair coins are tossed, and the outcome is recorded. These are the events of interest: A: Observe at least one head B: Observe at least one tail Define the events A, B, A B, and A B as collections of simple events, and find their probabilities.

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EXAMPLE: An experiment consists of tossing a single dice and observing the number of dots that shows on the upper face. Events A, B and C are defined as follows: A B C : : : Observe a number less than 4 Observe a number less than or equal to 2 Observe a number greater than 3

Draw a Venn diagram that illustrates the situation:

Find the following probabilities: 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. P( S ) P( B ) P(A B C) P(A B) P(A C) P(B C) P(A C) P(B C)

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CHAPTER 4 - PROBABILITY

Addition Rule:
The addition rule helps solve probability problems that involve two events. When asked to find the probability of A or B, mean that A can happen, or B can happen, or both can happen together. This is what is stated in the addition rule. Notation for Addition Rule: P (A or B) = P (in a single trial, event A occurs or event B occurs or they both occur)

Additive Rule of Probability

Deals with unions of events Given two events, A and B, the probability of their union, A B, is equal to P (A B) = P (A) + P(B) P (A B)

* Mutually exclusive

Two events are mutually exclusive when one event occurs the other cannot. When events A and B are mutually exclusive, P( A B) = 0

For the additive rule: P (A B) = P (A) + P(B) P (A B) If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P (A B) = 0 thus P (A B) = P (A) + P (B)

Suppose we roll two dice and want to find the probability of rolling a sum of 6 or 8. This can be written in words as P(6 or 8) or more mathematically is P(6 8). So what is the probability of getting a 6 or an 8 or both?

P (6) P (8)

= =

5/36 5/36

P (6 and 8 together) is impossible so the probability is 0.

So P(6

8) = 5/36 + 5/36 - 0 = 10/36 = 5/18

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CHAPTER 4 - PROBABILITY

EXAMPLE 1. You are going to pull one card out of a deck. Find P(Ace King).

2.

You are going to roll two dice. Find P(sum that is even or sum that is a multiple of 3).

3.

Drawing a card from an ordinary deck of cards. Find P(three or jack), P(three or jack), and P(club or four).

Remember that: - OR (the union symbol ) means that one or the other or both events can happen. - AND (the intersection symbol ) means that two events happen.

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Multiplication Rule:
The multiplication rule also deals with two events, but in these problems the events occur as a result of more than one task (rolling one die then another, drawing two cards, spinning a spinner twice, pulling two marbles out of a bag, etc). When asked to find the probability of A and B, we want to find out the probability of events A and B happening. Notation for Multiplication Rule: P (A and B) = P (event A occurs in a first trial and event B occurs in a second trial / event A and event B occur together)

Multiplicative Rule of Probability

Deals with intersections of events Given two events, A and B, the probability that both of two events occur is P (A B) = P (A) P (B|A) @ P (A B) = P (B) P (A|B)

* Independent events

Two events A and B are said to be Independent if and only if either P ( A|B ) = P ( A) or P ( B| A) = P ( B ) Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent.

For multiplicative rule: P (A B) = P (A) P (B|A) @ P (A B) = P (B) P (A|B) If A and B are independent, then P (A B) = P (A) P (B) Similarly, if A, B and C are independent events, then the probability that A, B, and C occur is P (A B C) = P (A) P (B) P (C)

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CHAPTER 4 - PROBABILITY

EXAMPLE: 1. Suppose we roll one die followed by another and want to find the probability of rolling a 4 on the first die and rolling an even number on the second die. P (4) = 1/6 P (even) = 3/6 So P (4 even) = (1/6) (3/6) = 3/36 = 1/12

While the rule can be applied regardless of dependence or independence of events, we should note here that rolling a 4 on one die followed by rolling an even number on the second die are independent events. Each die is treated as a separate thing and what happens on the first die does not influence or effect what happens on the second die. This is our basic definition of independent events: the outcome of one event does not influence or affect the outcome of another event.

Notice: In this problem we are not dealing with the sum of both dice. We are only dealing with the probability of 4 on one die only and then, as a separate event, the probability of an even number on one dies only.

2.

Suppose you have a box with 3 blue marbles, 2 red marbles, and 4 yellow marbles. We are going to pull out the first marble, leave it out, and then pull out another marble. What is the probability of pulling out a red marble followed by a blue marble?

We can still use the multiplication rule which says we need to find P(red) P(blue). But be aware that in this case when we go to pull out the second marble, there will only be 8 marbles left in the bag. P (red) = 2/9 P (red P (blue) = 3/8

blue) = (2/9)(3/8) = 6/72 = 1/12

Notice: The events in this example were dependent. When the first marble was pulled out and kept out, it affected the probability of the second event. This is what is meant by dependent events.

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EXAMPLE: 1. There are 11 marbles in a bag. Two are yellow, five are pink and four are green. Suppose you pull out one marble, record its color, put it back in the bag and then pull out another marble. Find a. P (yellow and pink) b. P (pink and green)

2.

Suppose you are going to draw two cards from a standard deck. What is the probability that the first card is an ace and the second card is a jack.

Conditional Probability:
This rule is applied when you have two events and you already know the outcome of one of the events.

Conditional Probability

Probability obtained with the additional information that some other event has already occurred.

The conditional probability of B, given that A has occurred, is:


P(B| A) = P(A B) P(A) if P(A) 0

The conditional probability of A, given that B has occurred, is:


P(A|B) = P(A B) P(B) if P(B) 0

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CHAPTER 4 - PROBABILITY

EXAMPLE: 1. A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test? This problem describes a conditional probability since it asks us to find the probability that the second test was passed given that the first test was passed.

P(Second| First ) =

P(First and Second) P(First )

0.25 0.42

= 0.6 = 60%

2.

A survey of 500 adults asked about college expenses. The survey asked questions about whether or not the person had a child in college and about the cost of attending college. Results are shown in the table below. Cost Too Much Child in College Child not in College 0.30 0.20 Cost Just Right 0.13 0.25 Cost Too Low 0.01 0.11

Suppose one person is chosen at random. Given that the person has a child in college, what is the probability that he or she ranks the cost of attending college as cost too much? This problem reads: P (cost too much | child in college) or P (cost too much given that there is a child in college) According to the conditional probability rule:

P(cost too much child in college) = P(cost too much child in college) = 0.30

P(child in college) = 0.30 + 0.13 + 0.01 = 0.44 Therefore;


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Complementation

The complement of an event A, denoted by AC , consists of all the simple events in the sample space S that are not in A.

P ( A ') = 1 P ( A )

EXAMPLE:
1. events A and B it 2 7 5 P ( A) = , P ( A B ) = and P ( A B ) = . Find 3 12 12 P ( B) a. For is known that

b.

P( B|A )

2.

For events A and B it is known that P ( A) = P ( B ) and P ( A B ) = 0.1 and P ( A B ) = 0.7 . Find P ( A) .

3.

Given P(A) = 0.4 and P(B ) = 0.5 a. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, find P (both A and B) b. If A and B are independent events, find P (either A and B)

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4.

In a color preference experiment, 8 toys are placed in a container. The toys are identical except for color where 2 are red, and six are green. A child is asked to choose two toys at random, once with replacement and once without replacement. What is the probability that the child chooses the two red toys for both ways? Draw tree diagram for each method to illustrate your working. (Relate the tree diagram using the multiplicative rule of probability)

5.

An experiment consists of tossing a single dice and observing the number of dots that shows on the upper face. Events A, B and C are defined as follows: A B C : : : Observe a number less than 4 Observe a number less than or equal to 2 Observe a number greater than 3

Are events A and B independent? Are the events A and B mutually exclusive?

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6.

Toss two coins and observe the outcome. Define these events: A: Head on the first coin. B: Tail on the second coin. Are events A and B independent?

TAKE NOTE: For this type of question, ensure you prove the steps accordingly.

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Additional Rules using complements of events:

P (A B ) = P ( A B )

P (A B ) = P ( A B)

P ( A B )

P ( A B )

P ( A )

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EXAMPLE: Given P ( A) = 0.59 , P ( B ) = 0.30 and P ( A B ) = 0.21, find a. P ( A B ) b. P ( A ' B ') c. P ( A B ') d. P ( A ' B ')

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EXAMPLE: Given P ( A) = 0.40 , P ( B ) = 0.70 and P ( A B ) = 0.2 , find a. P ( A / B ) b. P ( A '/ B ) c. P ( A / B ') d. P ( A '/ B ')

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Bayes Theorem

The probability of event A, given that event B has subsequently occurred, is


P (A )P (B | A )

P (A |B ) =

[P (A )P (B | A )] + [P (A )P (B | A )]

EXAMPLE: Suppose 5% of the population of Umen (a fictional country) have a disease that is peculiar to that country. Consider there is technique to detect the disease although it is not very accurate. The probability that the test indicates disease is present is 0.90. The probability that a person actually does not have the disease but test indicates the disease is present is written as 0.15. Illustration using tree diagram: Define the situation Let
D: N: X: X:

Have the disease Does not have the disease Test show the disease is present (positive) Test shows the disease is not present (negative)

Draw tree diagram using the terms defined above

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Possible questions: a. What is the probability of the patient is tested positive?

b. What is the probability of the patient is tested negative?

c. What is the probability that the patient has the disease and tested positive?

d. What is the probability that a person has the disease, given that he or she is tested positive?

e. What is the probability that a person has the disease, given that he or she is tested negative?

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When a person needs a taxi, it is hired from one of the three firms : X, Y and Z. Of the hiring, 40% are from X, 50% are from Y and 10% are from Z. For taxi hired from X, 9% arrived late. The corresponding percentages for taxis hired that arrived late from firm Y and Z are 6% and 20% respectively. a. Construct a tree diagram for the above information. b. Calculate the probability that the next taxi hired i. will be from X and will not arrive late ii. will arrive late c. Given that a call is made for a taxi and that it arrives late, find the probability that it came from Y.

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Permutations

The number of ways we can arrange n distinct objects, taking them r at a time is

n r

n! (n r )!

Permutation is an ordered arrangement of all or part of a set o items.

The 3 letters, P, Q and R can be arranged in the following ways PQR PRQ QPR RPQ RQP QRP

Each of the arrangement is called permutation of the letters P, Q and R. Using the formula for permutation, the number of permutations of the 3 letters taken 3 at a time is
3

P3 =

3! (3 3)!

3! 0! = 3 2 1 = =6 Similarly, if the question requires the number of permutations of 3 letters taken 2 at a time is
3

P2 =

3! (3 2)!

3! 1! = 3 2 1 = =6 The permutations are PQ, PR, QP, QR, RP, RQ. . TAKE NOTE: PR and RP are considered as 2 different permutations

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The numbers of permutations of n items with p are alike of a first kind, q is alike of a second kind, r is alike of a third kind, and so on is n! p ! q ! r !..... The number of permutations if the n items are arrange in a circle

( n 1) !
p ! q ! r !.....

Calculate the number of permutations that can be formed using letters from the word STATISTICS.

3 lottery tickets are drawn from a total of 50. If the tickets are distributed to each of 3 employees in the order in which they are drawn, the order will be important. How many simple events are associated with the experiment?

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In how many ways can the letters A, B, C, D and E can be arranged without repetition when a. b. c. all the 5 letters are taken at a time 4 of the letters are taken at a time 3 of the letters are taken at a time

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Find the number of arrangements of the word MATHEMATICS and THEMSELVES

How many 3-letter words can be formed from the letters in the word ABSOLUTE? How many of these 3-letters words a. b. Contain the letter S, Do not contain any vowel

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Combinations

The number of distinct combinations of n distinct objects that can be formed, taking them r at a time is

n r

n! r!(n r )!

Combination of a set of items is a selection of one or more of the items with no consideration given to the order or arrangement of the items

The number of combinations of 3 letters, P, Q and R, taken 2 at a time is


3

C2 =

3! 2! ( 3 2 ) !

3 2 1 2 1 1 =3 = The combinations are: PQ or QP, QR or RQ and PR or RP. TAKE NOTE: PR and RP are considered the same combination The relation between permutation and combination can be written as

C = P! r
n r

n r

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EXAMPLE: A printed circuit board may be purchased from 5 suppliers. In how many ways can 3 suppliers be chosen from the 5.

EXAMPLE: A committee is to be formed from 8 men and 4 women. Find the number of ways this committee can be formed consisting of a. b. c. 7 members 7 members, 5 men and 2 women 7 members, men more than the women

TAKE NOTE: Permutations and Combinations techniques are easier to perform by using the box method

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EXERCISE: 1. One card will be randomly selected from a standard 52-card deck. What is the probability the card will be queen?

2. The National Center for Health Statistics reports that of 883 deaths, 24 resulted from an automobile accident, 182 from cancer and 333 from heart disease. What is the probability that a particular death is due to an automobile accident?

3. An ordinary dice is thrown. Find the probability that the number obtained a. Is a multiple of 3 b. Is less than 7 c. Is a factor of 6

,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9} , A = {2,4,7,9} , B = {1 ,3,5,7,9} , C = {2,3,4,5} , and 4. If S = {1 D = {1 } . List the elements of the sets and the probabilities ,6,7 corresponding to the following events: a. A c C b. B C c c. d. e.

(S B ) (C
c

c c

D B

( A B )c

5. If 3 coins are to be thrown simultaneously together, list down all the elements.

6. Referring to question 5, what is the probability of obtaining a. One head b. At least two heads c. All tails

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7. A trainee has conducted a survey on the hand phone market among students in private higher educational institutes (IPTS) around Kuala Lumpur. From the survey among 130 students, the following data were gathered: 53 students use MOTOROLA phones 58 students use NOKIA phones 54 students use SONY ERRICSON phones 30 students use NOKIA phones only 25 students use SONY ERRICSON phones only 28 students use MOTOROLA phones only 8 students use all three phones a. b. Present the information gathered using a Venn Diagram How many students use only MOTOROLA and NOKIA phones? How many students use at least 2 hand phones? How many students did not use any off the phones above?

c. d.

8. The probability of surviving a certain transplant operation is 0.55. If a patient survives the operation, the probability that his or her body will reject the transplant within a month is 0.20. What is the probability of surviving both of these critical stages?

9. In a college graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied mathematics, 69 studied history and 35 studied both mathematics and history. a. Draw a Venn diagram that illustrates the above situation b. Using the diagram drawn in (a), find the probability of i. The student takes mathematics and history ii. The student does not take either of these subjects iii. The student takes history but not mathematics

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10. A selected group of employees of Samsung Manufacturing is to be surveyed about a new pension plan. In-depth interviews are to be conducted with each employee selected in the sample. The employees are classified as follows: Classification Supervisors Maintenance Production Management Secretarial Event A B C D E No of employees 120 50 1460 302 68

What is the probability that the first person selected is a. b. Either in maintenance or secretarial Not in management

11. There are 100 students in a first year college intake, 45 are male students of which 36 are studying programming. From the total female students, 42 are studying programming. Draw a probability table to illustrate the situation. What is the probability that a student selected randomly is studying programming knowing that the student is a male?

12. A coin is loaded so that the probabilities of heads and tails are 0.52 and 0.48 respectively. If the coin is tossed three times, what is the probabilities of getting a. All heads b. Two tails and a head in that order

13. Given that A and B are two events with probabilities P(A) = 0.4, P(A/B) = 0.2 and P(B) = 0.15. Find a. P(B/A) b. P(A B) 14. Two event R and T are defined in a sample space with probabilities P(R) = 0.35, P(T) = 0.28 and P(RT) = 0.06. Find

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a. b. c.

P(R T) P(RT) P(RT)

15. Two ordinary dice are thrown. Find the probability that the sum of the scores obtained a. b. c. d. is a multiple of 5 is greater than 9 is a multiple of 5 or is greater than 9 is a multiple of 5 and is greater than 9

16. Two events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.4 and P(A/B) = 0.1. Calculate the probabilities a. that both the events occur b. at least one of the event occur c. B occur, given that A has occurred.

17. Three people in an office decide to enter a marathon race. The respective probabilities that they will complete the marathon are 0.9, 0.7, and 0.6. Find the probability that at least one will not complete the marathon. Assume that of each is independent of the performances of the others.

18. Suppose A and B are two event with P(B) = 0.5, P(A / B) = 0.4 and P(A / B) = 0.3. Find a. P(A B) b. P(A B)

19. Let S and T are two events such that P(S) = 0.6, P(T) = 0.5 and P(S T) = 0.3. Obtain a. P(S T) b. P(T / S)

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20. Suppose that A and B are two events with P(A) = 1/5, P(B) = 1/4 and P(A B) = 1/3. Find a. P(A B) b. P(A / B) c. P(B / A)

21. A and B are two events where P(B) = 1/6 , P(A B) = 1/12, and P(B / A) = 1/3. Find a. P(A) b. P(A / B)

22. Given that P(A) = 0.8, P(A / B) = 0.8 and P(A B) = 0.5. Find a. P(B) b. P(B / A) c. P(A B)

23. A sharpshooter hits a target with probability independence, find the probability of getting a. A hit followed by two misses b. Two hits and a miss in any order

0.75.

Assuming

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24. A box contains 5 red bulbs, 4 blue bulbs and 3 yellow bulbs. Three balls are selected at random from the box. a. Find the probability that all three bulbs are of the same color. b. Find the probability that the three bulbs are of different colors if it is known that one of them is yellow.

25. A box contains 15 mathematics books and 10 music books. Two books are selected one at a time without replacement, find a. The probability that the first book selected is a mathematics book b. The probability that the second book selected is a music book if the first book selected is a mathematics book

26. Given that P(C D) = , P(C/D) = 1/3 and P(D/C) = 3/5.Find a. P(C) b. P(D) c. P(C / D)

27. If A and B are mutually exclusive events with P ( A) = 0.5 and P ( B ) = 0.3 , find a. P ( A ') b. P ( B ') c. P ( A B ) d. P ( A ' B ') e. P ( A ' B ) f. P ( A ' B ')

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28. Given the following probabilities P(A) = 0.3, P(A B ) = 0.95 a. Find P(B ) if A and B are mutually exclusive b. Find P(B ) if A and B are independent events

29. A box contains 4 red balls, 5 green balls and 8 blue balls a. A ball is drawn at random from a box. Find the probability that it is i. Red ii. Green or blue b. Three balls are drawn one by one from the box. Find the probability that the balls are drawn in the order of red, green and blue if the ball is i. Replaced ii. Not replaced

30. From a box containing 6 black beads and 4 green beads. 3 beads are drawn in succession, each beads being replaced in the box before the next draw is made. Draw a tree diagram that represents the above experiment. Find the probability that a. All three are of the same color b. Each color is represented

31. If the probability that student A will fail a certain statistics examination is 0.5, the probability that student B will fail the examination is 0.2 and the probability that both student A and student B will fail the examination is 0.1, what is the probability that: a. At least one of the two students will fail the examination? b. Neither student A nor student B will fail the examination?

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32. Routine physical examinations are conducted annually as part of a health service program for a company for its employees. It was discovered that 8% of the employees need corrective shoes, 15% need dental work and 3% need both health service. What is the probability that an employee selected at random will need either corrective shoes or major dental work?

33. An automatic Shaw machine inserts mixed vegetables into a plastic bag. Experience revealed some packages were underweight and some overweight, but mostly had satisfactory weight. Weight Underweight, A Satisfactory, B Overweight, C Probability 0.025 0.900 0.075 1.000 No of packages 100 3600 300 4000

a. What is the probability of selecting three packages from the production line and finding all three are underweight? b. What does this probability mean?

34. The probability that a regularly schedule flight departs on time is P ( D ) = 0.83 , the probability that it arrives on time is P ( A) = 0.92 , and the probability that it departs and arrive on time is P ( D A) = 0.78 . Find the probability that a plane a. Arrives on time given that it departed on time b. Departed on time given that it has arrived on time

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35. A firm uses 3 local hotels to provide accommodations for its clients. From past experience, it is known that 15% of its clients are assigned rooms at Hotel A, 55% at Hotel B and 30% at Hotel C. It is known that the probabilities Hotel A, Hotel B and Hotel C will be facing water problems are 0.03, 0.02 and 0.07 respectively. a. Draw a tree diagram for the above data. b. What the probability that a client will be assigned a room without water problems?

36. The Credit Department of a supermarket reported that 75% of their sales are in cash while the remaining 25% are using credit cards. 80% of the cash sales and 30% of the sales using credit cards are for the sales amount of less than RM100. a. Draw a tree diagram for the above problem. b. What is the probability of a sale less than RM100? c. Puan Rahimah has just bought a calculator that cost less than RM100, what is the probability that she paid cash?

37. The number of employees of store A, B and C are distributed in the percentage 20%, 30% and 50%. 50%, 60% and 70% of these are women respectively. One employee is selected at random. a. Draw a tree diagram to summarize the above problem. b. What is the probability that the employee is a male? c. Given that the employee is a male, what is the probability that he works in store C?

38. In an annual sport election, there are three possible candidates. The probability of Mr. Ahmad, Mr. Yaman and Mr. Zain being nominated are 0.25, 0.45 and 0.3 respectively. If the nominated candidates are taking part in the election, the probability that the election is won by Mr. Ahmad, Mr. Yaman and Mr. Zain are 0.6, 0.35 and 0.60 respectively a. Draw a probability tree to represent the above situation. b. Given that someone won the election, what is the probability that he is Mr. Zain? 39. The Snapquick Store gets its supply of camera from three suppliers A, B and C in the ratio of 5 : 3 : 2. However, some of the cameras supplied

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are faulty. 10% of the cameras obtained from supplier A are faulty, so are 5% from supplier B and 3% from supplier C. a. Construct a tree diagram. b. One camera is chosen at random from the store. What is the probability that the camera i. is faulty ii. was obtained from supplier A if it is found to be faulty.

40. Of a group of students studying at a School of Management, 48% are male and 52% are female. 20% of the males and 30% of the females from this group, major in Marketing. Find the probability that: a. A student selected at random from this group is a female majoring in Marketing. b. A student selected at random from this group is not majoring in Marketing c. A marketing student selected at random from this group is a male.

41. In how many ways can the letters A, B, C, D, E and F can be arranged without repetition when a. All the 6 letters are taken at a time b. 5 of the letters are taken at a time c. 3 of the letters are taken at a time

42. Find the number of arrangements of the following words a. CALENDAR b. MALAYSIA c. CALCULATOR d. PROBABILITIES 43. Suppose repetitions are not permitted a. How many three digit numbers can be formed from the six digits 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 9?

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b. How many of these numbers are less than 400? c. How many are even? d. How many are odd? e. How many are multiples of 5?

44. Solve the problem in question 43, if repetitions are permitted.

45. A : {2,4,6,7} . How many 4 digits numbers can possibly be formed from set A if a. each digit can be used only once b. each digit can be used more than once c. 4th digit is odd number

46. In how many ways can the first, second and third prizes are awarded in a class of 30?

47. If there are 8 vacant seats in a bus, in how many ways can 5 persons seat themselves?

48. In how many ways can 7 persons sit at a round table?

49. How many 4-digit numbers can be formed by using the digits 0 to 9 if a. Repetition is allowed b. Repetition is not allowed

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50. Using the word MISSISSIPPI, find the number of permutations that can be formed a. From all the letters of the word b. If the words are to begin with the letter I c. If the words are to begin and end with the letter S d. If the two Ps are to be next to each other e. If the four Ss are to be next to each other

51. A class consists of seven men and five women a. Find the number of committees of five that can be formed from the class b. Find the number of committees that consist of three men and two women c. Find the number of committees that consist of at least one man and at least one woman

52. A bag contains five red marbles and six white marbles. a. Find the number of ways that four marbles can be drawn from the bag b. Find the number of ways that four marbles can be drawn from the bag, if two of the marbles must be red and two of the marbles must be white c. Find the number of ways that four marbles can be drawn from the bag if the four marbles must be of the same color

53. How many ways can the letters of the word DIGIT can be arranged? How many of these arrangement a. The Is are together? b. The Is are separated?

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54. A committee consist of 4 members will be selected from 5 polices, 2 lawyers and 3 doctors. How many ways the committee can be formed if a. The committee will consist of 3 polices b. The committee will consist of no more than a lawyer

55. A delegation of 4 members is to be formed from 7 chemistry lecturers and 5 biology lecturers. In how many ways can the group be formed if at least 2 chemistry lecturers should be in the group?

56. There are 7 women and 8 men in a committee. In how many ways can a group of 3 people be selected from the committee if the 3 should be of all men or all women?

57. In how many ways can a president, an assistant president, a treasurer and a secretary be chosen from 8 selected members of an organization?

58. Students of Diploma in Computer Science consist of 10 males and 15 females. What is the probability of selecting a committee of 5 males and four females if Siti must be one of them?

59. The eleven letters of the word BOOKSHELVES are arranged in a line. a. How many distinct arrangements can be done? b. If an arrangement is chosen at random, what is the probability that the two Os are together?

60. In an examination a student has to answer 6 out of 10 questions. a. How many choices does the student have? b. How many choices does the student have if he/she must answer the first two questions? c. How many choices does the student have if he/she must answer at least 3 of the first four questions?

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