General Election Opinion Poll

17th May 2012
Prepared for:

(1) Job No: 01912

MUST BE INCLUDED Methodology and Weighting
RED C interviewed a random sample of 1005 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 14th to 16th May 2012. A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two. Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote. Finally, some people tell RED C that they intend to vote, and have a good past voting record, but say they don’t know who they would vote for or refuse to answer the question. Whenever such people say which party they voted for in the last election, RED C ascribe 50% to the party they voted for previously. We have seen from analysis of past elections that this is the most likely outcome and this reallocation tries to overcome the effect of the “spiral of silence” where voters are do not want to admit who they will vote for. In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO.
(2)

Key Findings
Fine Gael remains the largest party in the state, with 32% share of the first preference vote. This continues the trend that has seen the party in and around the low 30% share during 2012 – but does also suggest some volatility among the electorate, given shifts in support just one week after the last RED C poll. Sinn Fein consolidate gains in support seen during 2012, securing 20% in today's poll, and remain the second largest party in the state. Support is strongest for the party among men and those living in Connaught and Ulster – however it is interesting that support is also now stronger among mid 35-54 year olds ages, whereas historically it was among younger age groups. Fianna Fail also consolidate some gains in support seen during 2012. They secure 18% of the first preference vote, a week after hitting their highest share for 3 years in a poll also conducted by RED C a week ago. Labour continue to see their support at a significantly lower level than at the last election. Their first preference share remains rooted at 13%, some six points below that achieved in 2011. Part of this appears to be a decline in Dublin, where they now lie in second place behind Fine Gael. The rise of the Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail share of vote appears to have been somewhat to the detriment of Independent candidates, whose first preference share falls back to general election 2011 levels at 15%, after gains seen in the interim.
(3)

General Election

(4)

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

32%

18% 13%

20% 17%

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fail

Sinn Féin

Independents/ Greens/Other

(5)

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT
Core figures 17th May 2012 Excluding 50% undecided, and weighting back 50% undecided to how they voted in 2011 2011 Election Results

% Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Independents/ Green / Others Undecided 25 10 14 17 14 20

% 32 13 18 20 17

% 36 19 17 10 17

(6)

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

33%

35%

32%

General election 2011 Paddy Power Jan 2012 Paddy Power March 2012 Paddy Power May 2012

36%

20%

19%

18%

20%

20%

17%

16%

16%

17%

15%

13%

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fáil

10%

Sinn Féin

14%

14%

Independents/ Green/Other

17%

17%
(7)

RED C Polls 2012 – First Preference Vote Over Time
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

Paddy Power Poll
45%

40%

Fine Gael
35%

32%
30%

25%

20%

Sinn Féin Fianna Fáil Independent Labour
10% 15%

20% 18% 15% 13%

5%

Green Party
0%

2%
Feb-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 GE 11 Jan-12 Jan-12 May-12 May-12

(8)

1st Preference vote x Demographics
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

Gender Total % Fine Gael Fianna Fail Labour Sinn Fein Independent candidates/ Green/ Other Party 32 18 13 20 Male % 28 16 15 28 Female % 35 20 10 13 18-34 % 21 20 14 22

Age 35-54 % 28 15 13 26 55+ % 45 19 11 13 ABC1 % 33 18 12 17

Class C2DE % 25 18 15 26 F % 60 15 4 8 Dublin % 27 10 22 18

Region ROL % 34 22 8 21 Munster % 32 22 12 20 Conn/ Ulster % 32 19 8 26

17

13

21

22

17

23

20

17

17

23

15

14

14

(9)