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SOCIAL ABACUS, DECEMBER 23, 2008

KATE G. NIEDERHOFFER

T he F ut u re O f M ea s u rem e nt

What does 2009 hold?


The Future of Measurement

I. We will substantially advance “It's
not
enough
to
study
connec8vity.

You
have
to



look
at
message
content
and
propaga8on
to

our understanding of understand
whom
an
individual
is
really
listening
to

individuals and the meaningful and
whom
he
or
she
is
meaningfully
connected

connections they have. with.”

‐
Seth
Grimes,
Alta
Plana
“I
think
many
of
these
new
metrics
in
social
media

will
allow
us
to
get
a
glimpse
of
some
of
the
things

that
are
most
interes8ng
in
personality
research
but
 II. We will identify methods to
have
been
generally
neglected
because
they
are
 tap what people are *really*
hard
to
measure
using
conven8onal
methods.
In

par8cular,
I
am
looking
forward
to
what
the
new

thinking, feeling, and paying
measures
will
tell
us
about
iden8ty.
It
seems
that
so
 attention to, meanwhile gaining
much
social
media
is
concerned
with
the
idea
of
 insight on what a measurement
discovering
who
we
are
and
with
conveying
that

idea
to
others.”
is truly capturing.

‐Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas
at
Aus8n,
Author
 “When
we
read
a
blog
or
watch
a
video,
most

of
Snoop:
What
Your
Stuff
Says
About
You current
measurement
tools
assume
that
we
are

paying
aZen8on
to
the
content
of
the
message
or,

“I
think
the
future
of
web‐based
measurement
is
 perhaps,
the
emo8onal
tone
of
the
message.

going
to
require
increasingly
deep
analy8cal
insights
 Content
is
measured
by
looking
at
low
frequency

on
user
behavior
and
the
rela8onships
they
have
 nouns
and
regular
verbs.

Emo8on
is
assumed
by
the

with
each
other…
It's
very
difficult
today
to
analyze
 use
of
emo8on‐8nged
words…
The
majority
of
our

[complex
web‐click
sequences]
within
a
database
 words
are
part
of
the
trash.

They
signal
how

down
to
a
per‐user
per‐session
level
off
large‐scale
 people
are
thinking,
how
they
are
organizing
their

data…
Graph
analy8cs
is
also
very
hard
to
do
for
 worlds,
their
rela8onships
with
other
people
and

large‐scale,
granular
data...but
the
deep
insights
 their
wri8ng
topics…
Over
the
next
few
years,
an

gained
on
how
people
are
connected
is
very
 increasing
number
of
people
will
be
exploring
the

powerful.”

 nonobvious
parts
of
language
to
get
a
beZer
sense

of
the
social
and
psychological
features
of
the

‐Shawn
Kung,
Aster
Data author,
the
message,
and
its
impact.

This
will
extend

beyond
these
junk
words
and
will
likely
include

“One
direc8on
in
the
future
of
measurement
is
the
 punctua8on,
emo8cons,
or
other
text
shortcuts.
This

Quan8fied
Self”
movement
in
which
people
apply
 way
of
thinking
will
be
relevant
for
blogs,
chat,

one
or
more
biological
sensors
to
themselves
and
 twiZer,
and
text
messaging.

It
should
also
be

track
the
results…
gathering
this
data
to
data
mine
 relevant
for
spoken
media
as
well.”

their
own
behavior
with
the
goal
of
improving

health,
efficiency,
behavior
modifica8on,
or
self‐ ‐James
Pennebaker,
University
of
Texas
at
Aus8n,

absorp8on.” Author
of
Opening
Up:
The
Healing
Power
of

Neal
Burns,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Center
for
Brand
Research Expressing
Emo8ons
‐Marc
Smith,
Telligent
Systems
Walter
Carl,
Chat
Threads, “I'm
very
much
in
to
appraisal
(framework)
right

“My
key
predic8on
related
to
this
is
that
companies
 now,
which
is,
in
a
large
part,
about
content
words.

Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City
&
organiza8ons
are
going
to
have
to
learn
to
build
 However,
there
is
always
a
disconnect
between
the

Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n:
Department
of
Psychology rela8onships
and
manage
their
social
interac8ons
 expression
of
private
state
and
the
private
state

across
mul8ple
groups
(employees,
customers,
 itself.

For
example,
I
may
say
'I
like
that'
simply
to

Seth
Grimes,
Alta
Plana
partners)
and
mul8ple
plaYorms
To
do
this
they
will
 avoid
a
social
conflict.
Looking
at
the
types
of

MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs need
to
beZer
understand
the
data
that
is
present
 paZerns
in
func8on
words
(which
have
been
used
in

as
well
as
what
needs
to
be
present
in
order
to
build
 a
number
of
classifiers
for
things
like
gender
and

Paul
Janowitz,
Sen8ent
Services
rela8onships
(strength
of
8es)
that
are
meaningful
 age)
may
also
be
a
way
to
figure
out
the
'truth'
of

Shawn
Kung,
Aster
Data to
them
from
an
ROI
standpoint
and
to
the
different
 the
expression.
We
did
some
work
on
the
BLEWS

groups.” project
looking
at
'emo8onal
charge'.
The
goal
being

Roddy
Lindsay,
Facebook
to
figure
out
the
level
of
emo8on
at
the
8me
of

Jamie
Pennebaker,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Department
of
 ‐Miles
Sims,
Small
World
Labs wri8ng.
This
is
another
aggregate
signal
useful
in

Psychology
sifing
the
content
data.”
Martha
Russell,
Media
X
at
Stanford
University
Miles
Sims,
Small
World
Labs MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs

Marc
Smith,
Telligent
Daniel
Tunkelang,
Endeca
SOCIAL ABACUS, DECEMBER 23, 2008 HTTP://SOCIALABACUS.BLOGSPOT.COM/

T he F ut u re O f M ea s u rem e nt

What does 2009 hold?


The Future of Measurement

II. continued... III. We will determine how to


“In
short,
I
predict
measurement
in
the
future
will
8e
 measure the value of social
together
Demand
(branding)
and
Life8me
Value

(purchase
and
repeat
purchase)
outcomes
by

interactions and attach
developing
a
framework
for
determining
how
 financial value, whether we’re
effec8ve
you
are
at
guiding
the
consumer
journey
 monetizing attention or a new
[across
specific
stages/phases/
milestones.

This

means
defining
those
stages,
assigning
a
specific

medium.
communica8ons
job
to
each,
defining
a
consumer

outcome
for
each,
and
then
tracking
the
numbers
of
 “My
personal
favorite
measure
is
ra8o
of
8me

Neal
Burns,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Center
for
Brand
Research people
efficiently
moving
in
and
out
of
those
stages
 people
collec8vely
spend
reading
my
blog
to
the

as
communica8ons
/
marke8ng
/
adver8sing
tac8cs
 8me
I
spend
wri8ng
it.
Embedding
video
is
chea8ng.

Walter
Carl,
Chat
Threads, are
introduced.” Less
glibly,
I
do
like
think
in
terms
of
ROI,
and
I

imagine
that
the
accountants
do
too.
It
probably

Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City
 makes
the
most
sense
to
measure
investment
in

terms
of
8me.
My
experience
and
reading
suggest

Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n:
Department
of
Psychology that
you
can't
just
throw
money
at
social
media,
as

evidenced
by
the
failure
of
corporate
blogs
or
other

Seth
Grimes,
Alta
Plana “My
fear
is
that
in
our
rush
to
measure
exci8ng
new
 soulless
marke8ng
efforts.
Rather,
the
successful

stuff
and
op8mize
predic8ve
validity
we
may
neglect
 investments
represent
real
8me
from
real
people

MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs to
keep
our
eye
on
the
vital
but
much
less
glamorous
 who
put
their
souls
into
it
(e.g.,
actual
execu8ves

area
of
discriminant
validity.
For
many
purposes
 blogging
or
using
TwiZer).

I
suppose
you
can

Paul
Janowitz,
Sen8ent
Services people
may
not
care
about
discriminant
validity
 ul8mately
measure
that
investment
in
financial

because
as
long
as
our
measure
relates
to
an
 terms
based
on
the
opportunity
cost
of
their
not

Shawn
Kung,
Aster
Data outcome
in
which
we're
interested,
who
cares
what
 doing
other
work,
but
it's
important
for
people
to

that
measure
is
really
tapping?
That
makes
some
 realize
that
the
resources
aren't
fungible.
So
the
real

Roddy
Lindsay,
Facebook sense
in
the
short
term,
but
if
we
want
to
generalize
 ques8on
is
how
to
measure
the
return.
I
don't
see

our
predic8ve
models
to
other
domains
we
must
get
 social
media
as
comparable
to
online
product

Jamie
Pennebaker,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Department
of
 a
firm
grasp
of
the
processes
driving
the
predic8ons.
 adver8sing,
where
the
natural
measures
are
pay‐per‐
Psychology That
means
having
a
good
idea
of
what
it
is
that
we
 click
or
pay‐per
ac8on.
The
main
goal
seems
to

are
measuring,
which
entails
having
a
clear
idea
of
 be
branding.
A
differen8al
measure
of
brand

Martha
Russell,
Media
X
at
Stanford
University what
it
is
we
are
not
measuring.” awareness
/
percep8on
would
be
ideal
as
an
end‐to‐
end
measure,
but
perhaps
there
are
some
useful,

Miles
Sims,
Small
World
Labs ‐Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas
at
Aus8n,
Author
of
 easier
to
obtain
measures
we
can
get
along
the
way.”

Snoop:
What
Your
Stuff
Says
About
You
Marc
Smith,
Telligent Daniel
Tunkelung,
Endeca

Daniel
Tunkelang,
Endeca
“I
predict
that
within
the
next
2
years
someone
will

figure
out
how
to
do
home
brewed
eye‐tracking
with
 “There
is
an
interes8ng
rela8onship
between
the

iSight/other
webcams
and
create
a
panel
of
web
 amount
of
aZen8on
and
the
quality
of
that

surfers
who
send
in
their
eye
fixa8on
data
to
be
 aZen8on.
Extrapola8ng
from
a
real
life
example
‐
a

aggregated
and
analyzed…
This
data
would
be
 blogger
with
a
large
readership
writes
about
X
and

invaluable
to
every
working
web
designer
on
the
 links
to
another
blog.
However,
as
the
blogger
is
not

planet.

Design
and
layout
decisions
could
be
driven
 really
an
authority
on
the
topic,
he
drives
liZle
click

by
data.

Not
to
men8on
adver8sing;
a
lot
of
this
 through.
Another
blog
with
a
far
lower
readership

"banner
blindness"
lore
is
really
poorly
studied
as
 (1‐2
orders
of
magnitude
say)
also
writes
about
X

are
the
tradeoffs
between
size
and
placement
in
 and
links
to
another
blog.
Here,
however,
there
is

online
adver8sing…
The
value
equa8on
becomes
a
 (in
absolute,
not
rela8ve
terms)
more
click
through

lot
simpler
with
the
eye
panel......$
per
unit
8me
of
 because
this
blogger
really
knows
about
the
topic

aZen8on.

Ul8mately
brand
dollars
are
buying
 and
has
a
smaller
but
more
focused
community.

eyeballs
and
such
data
tells
them
where
eyeballs
are
 Thus
the
rela8onship
between
popularity
and

going.” authority
is
very
important
when
measuring
a
blog.”

Roddy
Lindsay,
Facebook
 MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs
SOCIAL ABACUS, DECEMBER 23, 2008 HTTP://SOCIALABACUS.BLOGSPOT.COM/

T he F ut u re O f M ea s u rem e nt

What does 2009 hold?


The Future of Measurement

III. continued... IV. We will build better tools to


“I
believe
the
next
movement
in
measurement
 manage-- analyze and
needs
to
change
the
focus

from
the
medium
to
the
rela8onship
between
the

visualize-- massive volumes of
human
being
(consumer)
 data, primarily tapping the
and
the
en8ty
(brand,
company,
product,
etc.).

 evolving social graph.
Neal
Burns,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Center
for
Brand
Research Sounds
obvious,

right?

Agree.

But,
I
don't
believe
that's
what
we

Walter
Carl,
Chat
Threads, currently
do
at
 Interes8ngly,
this
was
one
of
the
most
ac8ve
threads

all
‐‐
we're
so
focused
on
what
we
can
measure
 of
discussion.
Several
specific
tools
were
men8oned:

Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City versus
what
we
should.” e.g.,
www.many‐eyes.com
,
www.visual‐literacy.org/
periodic_table/periodic_table.html.
Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n:
Department
of
Psychology ‐Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City

Seth
Grimes,
Alta
Plana
“My
other
predic8on
in
this
area
for
the
future
is

MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs “I
do,
however,
believe
that
the
wisdom
to
find
the
 that
non‐linear
simula8on
techniques
will
take‐off
in

new
metrics
that
are
needed
for
media
purchase
can
 helping
plan,
op8mize,
and
report
return
on

Paul
Janowitz,
Sen8ent
Services be
significantly
informed
by
a
more
complete
 marke8ng/adver8sing
campaigns
and
individual

"model"
of
the
media
intersec8ons
of
people
and
 tac8cs…I
believe
over
the
next
5
years
it
will
take
off

Shawn
Kung,
Aster
Data technology.
Essen8ally,
measurers
need
to
change
 and
give
strategic
planners
and
financial
ROI
types

the
perceptual
thresholds
of
the
measures,
so
we
 some
powerful
tools
to
harness
the
massive
data

Roddy
Lindsay,
Facebook can
thoughYully
evaluate
the
more
expanded
 sets
available
to
bring
it
all
together
into
a
single

models
and
select
for
use
the
indicators
that
are
 virtual
marketplace
with
which
to
both
play
"what‐if"

Jamie
Pennebaker,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Department
of
 most
relevant
for
the
current
business
context.
In
the
 scenarios
AND
extra
actual
impact
of
individual

Psychology end,
we
may
return
to
using
the
metrics
that
are
 efforts
on
the
business
outcomes
desired

currently
used.

But
even
if
that's
the
case,
I
believe
 (getng
to
ROI
calcula8ons).”
Martha
Russell,
Media
X
at
Stanford
University we'll
be
smarter
about
it.
At
a
minimum,
media

measurers
and
buyers
will,
I
think,
need
to
evolve
to
 ‐
Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City
Miles
Sims,
Small
World
Labs using
several
metrics
in
combina8on.

And
I
believe

new
concepts
will
evolve
to
describe
and
measure

Marc
Smith,
Telligent individuals
and
groups
of
individuals
at
various

stages
of
uni‐,
bi‐,
and
mul8‐direc8onal
 “Social
media
offers
great
opportunity
to
access
a

Daniel
Tunkelang,
Endeca communica8ons.” vast
amount
of
social
network
data.

Every
social

media
system
generates
social
networks,
not
just
the

‐Martha
Russell,
Stanford’s
Media
X ones
that
call
themselves
"social
networking

services."
There
are
a
number
of
tools
available
for

“There
are
at
least
five
ways
that
[brand‐related
 manipula8ng,
analyzing,
and
visualizing
social

social
interac8ons]
can
add
value
and
I
predict
that
 networks.

The
Interna8onal
Network
for
Social

organiza8ons
will
increasingly
feel
compelled
to
 Network
Anlaysis
(hZp://www.insna.org)
is
a
great

aZach
a
financial
value
to
one
or
more
of
these: source
of
pointers
to
a
number
of
the
leading

packages.”
‐
incremental
revenue
from
posi8ve
referrals
‐
Marc
Smith,
Telligent
‐
protec8ng
revenue
by
minimizing
impact
of

nega8ve
recommenda8ons

‐
decreased
customer
acquisi8on
costs
because
 “As
a
market
research
and
UX
company
we
get
lots

exis8ng
customers
are
doing
the
"work"
for
 of
data,
but
at
the
end
of
the
day
we
live
and
die

marketers based
upon
how
we
present
it.”

‐
accelera8on
effect
(value
from
involving
 ‐
Paul
Janowitz,
Sen8ent
Services
"influencers"
early
on
which
accelerates
adop8on
of

innova8on)

‐
learning
and
insight
from
listening
and/or
co‐
crea8on
ini8a8ves.”


‐
Walter
Carl,
ChatThreads