SOCIAL ABACUS, DECEMBER 23, 2008

KATE G. NIEDERHOFFER

T he F ut u re O f M ea s u rem e nt
What does 2009 hold?

The Future of Measurement
I. We will substantially advance our understanding of individuals and the meaningful connections they have.
“I
think
many
of
these
new
metrics
in
social
media
 will
allow
us
to
get
a
glimpse
of
some
of
the
things
 that
are
most
interes8ng
in
personality
research
but
 have
been
generally
neglected
because
they
are
 hard
to
measure
using
conven8onal
methods.
In
 par8cular,
I
am
looking
forward
to
what
the
new
 measures
will
tell
us
about
iden8ty.
It
seems
that
so
 much
social
media
is
concerned
with
the
idea
of
 discovering
who
we
are
and
with
conveying
that
 idea
to
others.” ‐Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas
at
Aus8n,
Author
 of
Snoop:
What
Your
Stuff
Says
About
You “I
think
the
future
of
web‐based
measurement
is
 going
to
require
increasingly
deep
analy8cal
insights
 on
user
behavior
and
the
rela8onships
they
have
 with
each
other…
It's
very
difficult
today
to
analyze
 [complex
web‐click
sequences]
within
a
database
 down
to
a
per‐user
per‐session
level
off
large‐scale
 data…
Graph
analy8cs
is
also
very
hard
to
do
for
 large‐scale,
granular
data...but
the
deep
insights
 gained
on
how
people
are
connected
is
very
 powerful.”

 ‐Shawn
Kung,
Aster
Data “One
direc8on
in
the
future
of
measurement
is
the
 Quan8fied
Self”
movement
in
which
people
apply
 one
or
more
biological
sensors
to
themselves
and
 track
the
results…
gathering
this
data
to
data
mine
 their
own
behavior
with
the
goal
of
improving
 health,
efficiency,
behavior
modifica8on,
or
self‐ absorp8on.” Neal
Burns,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Center
for
Brand
Research Walter
Carl,
Chat
Threads, Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n:
Department
of
Psychology Seth
Grimes,
Alta
Plana MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs Paul
Janowitz,
Sen8ent
Services Shawn
Kung,
Aster
Data Roddy
Lindsay,
Facebook Jamie
Pennebaker,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Department
of
 Psychology Martha
Russell,
Media
X
at
Stanford
University Miles
Sims,
Small
World
Labs Marc
Smith,
Telligent Daniel
Tunkelang,
Endeca “My
key
predic8on
related
to
this
is
that
companies
 &
organiza8ons
are
going
to
have
to
learn
to
build
 rela8onships
and
manage
their
social
interac8ons
 across
mul8ple
groups
(employees,
customers,
 partners)
and
mul8ple
plaYorms
To
do
this
they
will
 need
to
beZer
understand
the
data
that
is
present
 as
well
as
what
needs
to
be
present
in
order
to
build
 rela8onships
(strength
of
8es)
that
are
meaningful
 to
them
from
an
ROI
standpoint
and
to
the
different
 groups.” ‐Miles
Sims,
Small
World
Labs ‐Marc
Smith,
Telligent
Systems “It's
not
enough
to
study
connec8vity.

You
have
to
 look
at
message
content
and
propaga8on
to
 understand
whom
an
individual
is
really
listening
to
 and
whom
he
or
she
is
meaningfully
connected
 with.” ‐
Seth
Grimes,
Alta
Plana

II. We will identify methods to tap what people are *really* thinking, feeling, and paying attention to, meanwhile gaining insight on what a measurement is truly capturing.
“When
we
read
a
blog
or
watch
a
video,
most
 current
measurement
tools
assume
that
we
are
 paying
aZen8on
to
the
content
of
the
message
or,
 perhaps,
the
emo8onal
tone
of
the
message.
 Content
is
measured
by
looking
at
low
frequency
 nouns
and
regular
verbs.

Emo8on
is
assumed
by
the
 use
of
emo8on‐8nged
words…
The
majority
of
our
 words
are
part
of
the
trash.

They
signal
how
 people
are
thinking,
how
they
are
organizing
their
 worlds,
their
rela8onships
with
other
people
and
 their
wri8ng
topics…
Over
the
next
few
years,
an
 increasing
number
of
people
will
be
exploring
the
 nonobvious
parts
of
language
to
get
a
beZer
sense
 of
the
social
and
psychological
features
of
the
 author,
the
message,
and
its
impact.

This
will
extend
 beyond
these
junk
words
and
will
likely
include
 punctua8on,
emo8cons,
or
other
text
shortcuts.
This
 way
of
thinking
will
be
relevant
for
blogs,
chat,
 twiZer,
and
text
messaging.

It
should
also
be
 relevant
for
spoken
media
as
well.”
 ‐James
Pennebaker,
University
of
Texas
at
Aus8n,
 Author
of
Opening
Up:
The
Healing
Power
of
 Expressing
Emo8ons “I'm
very
much
in
to
appraisal
(framework)
right
 now,
which
is,
in
a
large
part,
about
content
words.
 However,
there
is
always
a
disconnect
between
the
 expression
of
private
state
and
the
private
state
 itself.

For
example,
I
may
say
'I
like
that'
simply
to
 avoid
a
social
conflict.
Looking
at
the
types
of
 paZerns
in
func8on
words
(which
have
been
used
in
 a
number
of
classifiers
for
things
like
gender
and
 age)
may
also
be
a
way
to
figure
out
the
'truth'
of
 the
expression.
We
did
some
work
on
the
BLEWS
 project
looking
at
'emo8onal
charge'.
The
goal
being
 to
figure
out
the
level
of
emo8on
at
the
8me
of
 wri8ng.
This
is
another
aggregate
signal
useful
in
 sifing
the
content
data.” MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs 

SOCIAL ABACUS, DECEMBER 23, 2008

HTTP://SOCIALABACUS.BLOGSPOT.COM/

T he F ut u re O f M ea s u rem e nt
What does 2009 hold?

The Future of Measurement
II. continued...
“In
short,
I
predict
measurement
in
the
future
will
8e
 together
Demand
(branding)
and
Life8me
Value
 (purchase
and
repeat
purchase)
outcomes
by
 developing
a
framework
for
determining
how
 effec8ve
you
are
at
guiding
the
consumer
journey
 [across
specific
stages/phases/
milestones.

This
 means
defining
those
stages,
assigning
a
specific
 communica8ons
job
to
each,
defining
a
consumer
 outcome
for
each,
and
then
tracking
the
numbers
of
 people
efficiently
moving
in
and
out
of
those
stages
 as
communica8ons
/
marke8ng
/
adver8sing
tac8cs
 are
introduced.” Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City


III. We will determine how to measure the value of social interactions and attach financial value, whether we’re monetizing attention or a new medium.
“My
personal
favorite
measure
is
ra8o
of
8me
 people
collec8vely
spend
reading
my
blog
to
the
 8me
I
spend
wri8ng
it.
Embedding
video
is
chea8ng.
 Less
glibly,
I
do
like
think
in
terms
of
ROI,
and
I
 imagine
that
the
accountants
do
too.
It
probably
 makes
the
most
sense
to
measure
investment
in
 terms
of
8me.
My
experience
and
reading
suggest
 that
you
can't
just
throw
money
at
social
media,
as
 evidenced
by
the
failure
of
corporate
blogs
or
other
 soulless
marke8ng
efforts.
Rather,
the
successful
 investments
represent
real
8me
from
real
people
 who
put
their
souls
into
it
(e.g.,
actual
execu8ves
 blogging
or
using
TwiZer).

I
suppose
you
can
 ul8mately
measure
that
investment
in
financial
 terms
based
on
the
opportunity
cost
of
their
not
 doing
other
work,
but
it's
important
for
people
to
 realize
that
the
resources
aren't
fungible.
So
the
real
 ques8on
is
how
to
measure
the
return.
I
don't
see
 social
media
as
comparable
to
online
product
 adver8sing,
where
the
natural
measures
are
pay‐per‐ click
or
pay‐per
ac8on.
The
main
goal
seems
to
 be
branding.
A
differen8al
measure
of
brand
 awareness
/
percep8on
would
be
ideal
as
an
end‐to‐ end
measure,
but
perhaps
there
are
some
useful,
 easier
to
obtain
measures
we
can
get
along
the
way.”
 Daniel
Tunkelung,
Endeca

Neal
Burns,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Center
for
Brand
Research Walter
Carl,
Chat
Threads, Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n:
Department
of
Psychology Seth
Grimes,
Alta
Plana MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs Paul
Janowitz,
Sen8ent
Services Shawn
Kung,
Aster
Data Roddy
Lindsay,
Facebook Jamie
Pennebaker,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Department
of
 Psychology Martha
Russell,
Media
X
at
Stanford
University Miles
Sims,
Small
World
Labs Marc
Smith,
Telligent Daniel
Tunkelang,
Endeca

“My
fear
is
that
in
our
rush
to
measure
exci8ng
new
 stuff
and
op8mize
predic8ve
validity
we
may
neglect
 to
keep
our
eye
on
the
vital
but
much
less
glamorous
 area
of
discriminant
validity.
For
many
purposes
 people
may
not
care
about
discriminant
validity
 because
as
long
as
our
measure
relates
to
an
 outcome
in
which
we're
interested,
who
cares
what
 that
measure
is
really
tapping?
That
makes
some
 sense
in
the
short
term,
but
if
we
want
to
generalize
 our
predic8ve
models
to
other
domains
we
must
get
 a
firm
grasp
of
the
processes
driving
the
predic8ons.
 That
means
having
a
good
idea
of
what
it
is
that
we
 are
measuring,
which
entails
having
a
clear
idea
of
 what
it
is
we
are
not
measuring.” ‐Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas
at
Aus8n,
Author
of
 Snoop:
What
Your
Stuff
Says
About
You

“I
predict
that
within
the
next
2
years
someone
will
 figure
out
how
to
do
home
brewed
eye‐tracking
with
 iSight/other
webcams
and
create
a
panel
of
web
 surfers
who
send
in
their
eye
fixa8on
data
to
be
 aggregated
and
analyzed…
This
data
would
be
 invaluable
to
every
working
web
designer
on
the
 planet.

Design
and
layout
decisions
could
be
driven
 by
data.

Not
to
men8on
adver8sing;
a
lot
of
this
 "banner
blindness"
lore
is
really
poorly
studied
as
 are
the
tradeoffs
between
size
and
placement
in
 online
adver8sing…
The
value
equa8on
becomes
a
 lot
simpler
with
the
eye
panel......$
per
unit
8me
of
 aZen8on.

Ul8mately
brand
dollars
are
buying
 eyeballs
and
such
data
tells
them
where
eyeballs
are
 going.” Roddy
Lindsay,
Facebook


“There
is
an
interes8ng
rela8onship
between
the
 amount
of
aZen8on
and
the
quality
of
that
 aZen8on.
Extrapola8ng
from
a
real
life
example
‐
a
 blogger
with
a
large
readership
writes
about
X
and
 links
to
another
blog.
However,
as
the
blogger
is
not
 really
an
authority
on
the
topic,
he
drives
liZle
click
 through.
Another
blog
with
a
far
lower
readership
 (1‐2
orders
of
magnitude
say)
also
writes
about
X
 and
links
to
another
blog.
Here,
however,
there
is
 (in
absolute,
not
rela8ve
terms)
more
click
through
 because
this
blogger
really
knows
about
the
topic
 and
has
a
smaller
but
more
focused
community.
 Thus
the
rela8onship
between
popularity
and
 authority
is
very
important
when
measuring
a
blog.” MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs 

SOCIAL ABACUS, DECEMBER 23, 2008

HTTP://SOCIALABACUS.BLOGSPOT.COM/

T he F ut u re O f M ea s u rem e nt
What does 2009 hold?

The Future of Measurement
III. continued...
“I
believe
the
next
movement
in
measurement
 needs
to
change
the
focus
 from
the
medium
to
the
rela8onship
between
the
 human
being
(consumer)
 and
the
en8ty
(brand,
company,
product,
etc.).

 Sounds
obvious,
 right?

Agree.

But,
I
don't
believe
that's
what
we
 currently
do
at
 all
‐‐
we're
so
focused
on
what
we
can
measure
 versus
what
we
should.” ‐Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City “My
other
predic8on
in
this
area
for
the
future
is
 that
non‐linear
simula8on
techniques
will
take‐off
in
 helping
plan,
op8mize,
and
report
return
on
 marke8ng/adver8sing
campaigns
and
individual
 tac8cs…I
believe
over
the
next
5
years
it
will
take
off
 and
give
strategic
planners
and
financial
ROI
types
 some
powerful
tools
to
harness
the
massive
data
 sets
available
to
bring
it
all
together
into
a
single
 virtual
marketplace
with
which
to
both
play
"what‐if"
 scenarios
AND
extra
actual
impact
of
individual
 efforts
on
the
business
outcomes
desired
 (getng
to
ROI
calcula8ons).” ‐
Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City

Neal
Burns,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Center
for
Brand
Research Walter
Carl,
Chat
Threads, Maury
Giles,
GSD&M
Idea
City Sam
Gosling,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n:
Department
of
Psychology Seth
Grimes,
Alta
Plana MaZhew
Hurst,
Microsof
Live
Labs Paul
Janowitz,
Sen8ent
Services Shawn
Kung,
Aster
Data Roddy
Lindsay,
Facebook Jamie
Pennebaker,
University
of
Texas,
Aus8n
Department
of
 Psychology Martha
Russell,
Media
X
at
Stanford
University Miles
Sims,
Small
World
Labs Marc
Smith,
Telligent Daniel
Tunkelang,
Endeca

IV. We will build better tools to manage-- analyze and visualize-- massive volumes of data, primarily tapping the evolving social graph.
Interes8ngly,
this
was
one
of
the
most
ac8ve
threads
 of
discussion.
Several
specific
tools
were
men8oned:
 e.g.,
www.many‐eyes.com
,
www.visual‐literacy.org/ periodic_table/periodic_table.html.

“I
do,
however,
believe
that
the
wisdom
to
find
the
 new
metrics
that
are
needed
for
media
purchase
can
 be
significantly
informed
by
a
more
complete
 "model"
of
the
media
intersec8ons
of
people
and
 technology.
Essen8ally,
measurers
need
to
change
 the
perceptual
thresholds
of
the
measures,
so
we
 can
thoughYully
evaluate
the
more
expanded
 models
and
select
for
use
the
indicators
that
are
 most
relevant
for
the
current
business
context.
In
the
 end,
we
may
return
to
using
the
metrics
that
are
 currently
used.

But
even
if
that's
the
case,
I
believe
 we'll
be
smarter
about
it.
At
a
minimum,
media
 measurers
and
buyers
will,
I
think,
need
to
evolve
to
 using
several
metrics
in
combina8on.

And
I
believe
 new
concepts
will
evolve
to
describe
and
measure
 individuals
and
groups
of
individuals
at
various
 stages
of
uni‐,
bi‐,
and
mul8‐direc8onal
 communica8ons.” ‐Martha
Russell,
Stanford’s
Media
X “There
are
at
least
five
ways
that
[brand‐related
 social
interac8ons]
can
add
value
and
I
predict
that
 organiza8ons
will
increasingly
feel
compelled
to
 aZach
a
financial
value
to
one
or
more
of
these: ‐
incremental
revenue
from
posi8ve
referrals ‐
protec8ng
revenue
by
minimizing
impact
of
 nega8ve
recommenda8ons ‐
decreased
customer
acquisi8on
costs
because
 exis8ng
customers
are
doing
the
"work"
for
 marketers ‐
accelera8on
effect
(value
from
involving
 "influencers"
early
on
which
accelerates
adop8on
of
 innova8on) ‐
learning
and
insight
from
listening
and/or
co‐ crea8on
ini8a8ves.” 
‐
Walter
Carl,
ChatThreads

“Social
media
offers
great
opportunity
to
access
a
 vast
amount
of
social
network
data.

Every
social
 media
system
generates
social
networks,
not
just
the
 ones
that
call
themselves
"social
networking
 services."
There
are
a
number
of
tools
available
for
 manipula8ng,
analyzing,
and
visualizing
social
 networks.

The
Interna8onal
Network
for
Social
 Network
Anlaysis
(hZp://www.insna.org)
is
a
great
 source
of
pointers
to
a
number
of
the
leading
 packages.” ‐
Marc
Smith,
Telligent

“As
a
market
research
and
UX
company
we
get
lots
 of
data,
but
at
the
end
of
the
day
we
live
and
die
 based
upon
how
we
present
it.” ‐
Paul
Janowitz,
Sen8ent
Services