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Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

StockSmart
Weekly Review
KSE-30 12,373.39 12,755.54 -3.00% Allshare 9,983.28 10,238.21 -2.49% US$bn 40.01 41.07 -2.59%

May 11, 2012

AKD Research
research@akdsecurities.net 009221 111 253 111
Indices KSE-100 This week 14,230.49 Last week 14,612.28 Change -2.61% Indices KMI-30 This week 24,519.59 Last week 25,167.03 Change -2.57% Mkt Cap. This week Last week Change PkRbn 3,635.14 3,730.49 -2.56%

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares) This week 236.95 Last week 335.18 Change -29.31%

The KSE-100 Index lost 2.61% to close at 14,230.49 points with the bulk of selling pressure coming in the last two days. We attribute this weakness to 1) selloff in intl markets, including commodities, which saw E&Ps take a breather, 2) pre-Budget jitters with news flow pointing towards higher taxation for Banks, 3) SECP clarification that the Anti Money Laundering Act is not superseded by recent changes to the CGT regime and 4) a cooling off in Pak-US relations with negative ramifications for foreign inflows. That said, there were selected outperformers within the AKD Universe these included AICL (+9.6%WoW), PTC (+4.8%WoW on ICH prospects) and EFOODS (+4.3%WoW despite closing at its lower circuit in the last two days). PSO (+3.0%WoW) also gained following reported release of PkR72bn in the energy chain. The heftiest decliners within our coverage included PSMC (-11.4%WoW on fears regarding Budgetary measures), UBL (-10.0%WoW) and ABL (-9.0%WoW); the two banking stocks in for sharp profit taking after outperforming recently. Average daily volume this week registered at 237mn shares, down 29%WoW, with the top three volume leaders being PTC, DGKC and LOTPTA.

Index & Volume Chart


(Shrs'000) (Index) 350,000 300,000 14,618 14,614 14,514 14,420 14,400 150,000 100,000 14,230 50,000 14,200 14,600 14,800

Universe Gainers & Losers


10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% AICL

Top-5 Volum e Leaders Sym bol PTC DGKC LOTPTA JSCL FATIMA : : : : : Volum e (m n) 188.15 125.36 84.76 77.37 65.28

250,000 200,000

EFOODS

LOTPTA

ENGRO

PTC

7-May

8-May

9-May

10-May

11-May

Ready Volume (LHS)

KSE100 Index (RHS)

Source: KSE & AKD Research


(mn) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 May-11 (Index) 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 Jul-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 KSE-100 Index

Outlook
Pre-Budget news flow is likely to continue capturing investor attention next week earlier market murmurs regarding a potential reduction in corporate income tax rate appear to have been overtaken by a more wary stance. At the same time, the market should also be very interested in unfolding dynamics viz. US-Pakistan relations, particularly if some word comes through on the reopening of NATO supply routes. For the Telecom sector in particular, a formal announcement on ICH formation/ASR rates revision will be keenly awaited.

Volume (LHS)

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg (AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2012 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

PSM C

HM B

PSO

ABL

UBL

14,000

AKD Securities Limited


May 11, 2012

StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update

KSE-100 Intraday Charts


May 11, 2012
14,495 14,430 14,365 14,300 14,235 14,170 14,105 14,040 9:03 9:58 10:52 11:46 12:40 13:35 14:29 15:23 16:17

This Weeks Daily Reports


FFBL: 1QCY12 analyst briefing takeaways & outlook (May 11, 2012) FFBL held its 1QCY12 analyst briefing yesterday to discuss 1QCY12 results as well as provide us with an update on the industry dynamics. Key takeaways included i) reduction in urea price by PkR145/bag in order to stimulate sales and reduce rising inventory levels, ii) gas rotation mechanism for SNGP based fertilizer plants in the offing, and iii) managements optimism on urea and DAP demand outlook, where urea and DAP offtake are forecast to rise YoY by 3% and 6% respectively. Outlook for intl phosphates is uncertain given weaker demand outlook from India. Incorporating the said change in urea price, we have lowered our target price for FFBL by 7% to PkR40/share with a Reduce stance on the scrip. Banks:Facing higher regulatory risk (May 10, 2012) Following robust 1QCY12 results (listed banks' profits up 31%YoY to PkR32.5bn), the banking sector has gained 44%CYTD, beating the KSE-100 Index by 15% in the process. However, unfolding of regulatory risks coupled with disconcerting prebudget news flow has recently curbed share price momentum. While we see implementation risks for proposals such as increasing tax rate on interest earned from Tbills, we believe increase in corporate tax rate on banks cannot completely be ruled out. As such, the next few weeks until the FY13 Budget could potentially see choppy banking sector price performance. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects appear bright where positives include 1) strong balance sheet growth which should counter NIM compression, 2) balance sheet de-risking leading to continued reduction in loans provisions and 3) initiation of interim payouts by some large banks which could drive the overall valuation rerating process. At current levels, we have a Market weight stance on Pakistan Banks with a selective preference for BAFL. OGDC: 3Q vindicates stronger earnings outlook (May 09, 2012) We raise full year FY12 estimates by 13% on lower exploration and adjustment in effective tax rate, with future earnings up by 7%-8% through forecast range. Alongside rollover, we raise our NAV-based target price for OGDC to PkR188/share up 6% from previous TP. Recent solid 3QFY12 performance with earnings of PkR6.43/ share vindicates our view of a solid earnings outlook backed by a blend of volume and value growth as phased development monetizations are streamed online. Additional upside based on uptick in Qadirpur wellhead gas price will underpin a broader revision in estimates (ceiling adjustment to US$400/ton versus US$320/ton currently). That said, post result announcement, stock price has underperformed by 3.8% versus the broader market where recent news flow regarding potential utilization of OGDC's funds for power sector TFCs risks undermining expected improvement in payout profile as well as exploration and development commitments. At current market price, the stock offers an upside of 13% - Accumulate. LOTPTA: Awaiting regulatory respite (May 08, 2012) LOTPTA managed to post a slight profit of PkR151mn (EPS: PkR0.10) in 1QCY12, down significantly by 94%YoY on poor margins. GMs for 1QCY12 stood at just 2% compared with 24% last year following a steep 64%YoY fall in PTA-Px PMs. That said, there are a number of potential triggers for LOTPTA which could lead towards multiple re-rating for the scrip. Triggers include i) co-generation power plant commissioning, ii) seasonal uptick in demand, iii) rising domestic cotton prices and lastly iv) potential increase in PTA import duty in budget FY13. However, downward sticky Px prices remain the key risk for LOTPTA. The stock is currently trading at demanding CY12 P/E multiple of 11.2x and is trading at a 7% premium to our target price of PkR8.37/share, implying a Reduce stance. That said, potential increase in PTA import duty could be a game changer and force us to revisit our investment case.

May 10, 2012


14,750 14,675 14,600 14,525 14,450 14,375 14,300 9:28 10:19 11:11 12:02 12:54 13:45 14:36
14:28

May 09, 2012


14,700 14,650 14,600 14,550 14,500 14,450 14,400 9:20 10:11 11:03 11:54 12:45 13:36 15:19

May 07, 2012


14,750 14,700 14,650 14,600 14,550 14,500 9:20 9:58 10:37 11:15 11:53 12:32 13:10 13:48 14:27 15:05

Source: KSE Note: Index data for May 08, 2012 not available.

15:27

AKD Securities Limited


May 11, 2012

StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports


LUCK on the up! (May 07, 2012) We have updated our financial model for Lucky Cement (LUCK) following release of 3QFY12 results, accounting for i) higher cement and lower coal prices, ii) higher effective tax rate compared to our estimates and iii) rolling forward our financial model assigning a 25% weight to FY12 and 75% weight to FY13 valuation. Resultantly, earnings have been tweaked upwards in the range of 0.4%-7.4% over the period FY12E to FY16F where we now expect LUCK to post earnings of PkR6.5bn (EPS:PkR20.1) in full year FY12. Lower coal prices have been the major reason for the increase in pre-tax earnings in subsequent years where our full year FY13 coal price assumption has been revised downwards to US$105 per ton FOB (previous US$122 per ton). Our coal price assumption remains conservative given that spot Coal Richards Bay price stands at US$97.5 per ton. Our target price of PkR148.4 (including PkR0.6 for investment in Yunus Energy) implies an upside of 11.5% from current levels - Accumulate!

AKD Securities Limited


May 11, 2012

StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update

Major World Indices Performance


Regional Valuations (2012)

Country
PE(x) 7.08 10.67 11.98 13.23 14.25 11.06 8.76

Bloomberg Code KSE100 Index CSEALL Index SET Index JCI Index FBMKLCI Index PCOMP Index VNINDEX Index HSI Index FSSTI Index IBX Index RTSSTD Index SENSEX Index SHCOMP Index SPX Index INDU Index CCMP Index UKX Index DAX Index DSM Index ADSMI Index DFMGI Index KWSEIDX Index MSM30 Index SASEIDX Index MXEF Index MXFM Index

11-May-12 14,230 5,109 1,191 4,114 1,584 5,158 480 19,965 2,883 20,769 9,559 16,293 2,395 1,358 12,855 2,934 5,509 6,476 8,548 2,478 1,515 6,447 5,746 7,222 981 473

4-May-12 14,612 5,375 1,227 4,217 1,591 5,298 476 21,086 2,991 21,037 9,627 16,831 2,452 1,369 13,038 2,956 5,655 6,561 8,670 2,501 1,582 6,479 5,862 7,546 1,013 479

WoW

CYTD

EPS Growth Pakistan 13% Indonesia 16% Malaysia 17% Philippines 10% Vitenam 13% India 14% China 17% % Pakistan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vitenam India China ROE 21.84 20.42 15.02 15.40 23.20 16.92 15.64

Divd Yld 7.46 2.76 3.85 2.68 4.82 2.17 2.82

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

Pakistan Srilanka Thailand Jakarta Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Hong Kong Singapore Brazil Russia India China S&P DJIA NASDAQ Composite UK German Qatar Abu Dhabi Dubai Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia MSCI EM MSCI FM

-2.61% 25.40% -4.96% -15.90% -2.97% 16.16% -2.43% 7.64% -0.42% 3.50% -2.63% 17.98% 0.79% 36.57% -5.32% 8.30% -3.58% 8.96% -1.27% 5.40% -0.71% -0.35% -3.20% 5.42% -2.33% 8.89% -0.81% 7.98% -1.41% 5.22% -0.77% 12.61% -2.58% -1.13% -1.30% 9.80% -1.40% -2.63% -0.93% 3.16% -4.24% 11.94% -0.50% 10.88% -1.98% 0.90% -4.30% 12.52% -3.19% 7.02% -1.32% 1.20% Source: Bloomberg
WoW 0.86% 0.05% 0.01% -1.18% -0.48% -1.42% -1.46% 1.19% 0.37% 1.20% CYTD 1.34% 11.14% -2.30% -3.24% 3.77% -1.31% 1.38% -0.46% 0.60% 2.08%

International Major Currencies


PkR/US$ Trend
92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 May-12 Nov-11 Dec-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jun-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Aug-11 Apr-12

SPOT Dollar Index USD/PkR USD/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD CHF/USD CAD/USD USD/KRW CNY/USD

11-May-12 80.185 90.845 79.860 1.293 1.607 1.004 0.784 0.929 1.000 1,148 6.314

4-May-12 79.498 90.800 79.850 1.308 1.615 1.018 0.796 0.918 0.996 1,134 6.293

Chg +/0.687 0.045 0.010 -0.016 -0.008 -0.015 -0.012 0.011 0.004 13.630 0.021

Source: Bloomberg

-4.35% 0.33% Source: Bloomberg


WoW -1.52% -2.47% -1.33% 2.16% -4.65% -3.62% -5.72% -0.56% -4.01% 0.00% CYTD -12.07% 5.12% 18.41% -44.21% -45.71% 11.40% -7.40% -14.95% -17.24% -21.77%

TRJ-CRB Index
360 350 340 330 320 310

Commodities
SPOT TRJ-CRB Nymex (WTI) ICE Brent N. Gas Henry Hub Cotton Gold Units Points US$/bbl. US$/bbl. US$/Mmbtu USd/Pound US$/Tr.Oz US$/Tr.Oz US$/MT US$/Oz US$/MT 11-May-12 292.62 96.06 111.66 2.36 93.35 1582.74 28.63 8207 1465 98.65 4-May-12 297.15 98.49 113.16 2.31 97.9 1642.22 30.3675 8253.5 1526.25 98.65

300

Sliver
290 May-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-11 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Aug-11 Apr-12

Copper Platinum Coal

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited


May 11, 2012

StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill Differential
(%) 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 1.05

Advance to Decline Ratio


1.45 1.35 1.25 1.15

(2.0) (4.0) (6.0) Oct-11 Aug-10 May-12 Feb-07 Nov-08 Sep-07 Apr-08 Mar-11 Jul-06 Jun-09 Jan-10
0.95 0.85 0.75 May-11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

FIPI Flows for the week


(US$'000) 3,000 1,946 2,000 1,000 (1,000) (2,000) 807

LIPI Flows for the week


15.00 Ind., 3.81 Co., 10.03

2,331 1,931

10.00 5.00 (5.00) (10.00)

NBFCs, 3.55

Others, 0.62 Bank/DFIs, (9.96) M.Funds, (7.62)

(3,000) (4,000) 7-May 8-May

(15.00)
(3,689) 9-May 10-May 11-May

(US$mn)

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index


20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% May-11

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM


30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% May-11 Mar-12 May-12 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Jul-11
KSE1 00 M SCI EM M SCI FM

Jul-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

May-12

KSE-100

AKD Universe

AKD Securities Limited


May 11, 2012

StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations


11-May-12 EPS (PkR) EPS chg (%) Price to Earnings (x) Price to Book (x) Price to CF (x) Earnings Yield (%) Dividend Yield (%) Book Value per Share (PkR) Return on Equity (%) Return on Assets (%) Chg in Sales (%) Gross Margin (%) Operating Margin (%) Net Margin (%) Payout (%) EV / EBITDA (x) Price to Sales (x) 2010A 7.01 25.10 10.01 2.02 13.37 9.99 4.97 34.68 20.22 3.68 14.81 27.59 17.99 10.48 49.73 6.44 1.05 2011A 8.75 24.80 8.02 1.77 12.28 12.47 6.49 39.63 22.08 4.04 13.72 28.69 18.90 11.50 52.05 5.42 0.92 2012F 9.91 13.23 7.08 1.55 10.77 14.12 7.46 45.35 21.84 4.15 18.02 27.38 18.14 11.03 52.81 4.70 0.78 2013F 10.99 10.95 6.38 1.39 7.97 15.67 8.69 50.65 21.70 4.21 8.88 28.36 18.96 11.24 55.46 4.19 0.72 2014F 12.38 12.67 5.67 1.23 7.66 17.65 9.71 56.83 21.79 4.33 5.96 29.37 19.70 11.95 55.03 3.77 0.68 2015F 13.99 12.94 5.02 1.11 7.17 19.93 10.52 63.19 22.13 4.48 9.61 29.77 20.10 12.32 52.78 3.33 0.62

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart FY12F


(x) 15.0 11.5 8.0 4.5

Jul-05

May-06

Mar-07

Jan-08

Nov-08

Oct-09

Aug-10

Jun-11

May-12

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart FY12F


(x)

3.25 2.50 1.75 1.00

Jul-05

May-06

Mar-07

Jan-08

Nov-08

Oct-09

Aug-10

Jun-11

May-12

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited


May 11, 2012

StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations


Stocks Symbol Price (PkR) Industrial Engineering Millat Tractors Construction and Materials DG Khan Cement Lucky Cement Chemicals Engro Polymer Chemicals Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited Engro Chemical Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. Fauji Fertilizer Company Fatima Fertilizer Food Producers Unilever Pakistan Limited Engro Foods Limited Gas Water & Multiutilities Sui Southern Gas company Non Life Insurance Adamjee Insurance Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Development Co. Pak Oilfields Pakistan State Oil Electricity Hub Power Co. Kot Addu Power Company TP (PkR) Stance 11A/E EPS 12F 13F 11A/E PER 12F 13F 11A/E PBV 12F 13F 11A/E DY 12F 13F

MTL

490.0

583.6

Accumulate

54.8

34.5

56.6

8.9

14.2

8.6

5.13

4.35

3.48

7.3

3.5

5.8

DGKC LUCK

44.5 127.0

48.7 148.4

Accumulate Accumulate

0.4 12.3

7.4 20.1

8.0 24.8

114.1 10.3

6.0 6.3

5.6 5.1

0.65 1.48

0.58 1.30

0.53 1.14

0.0 3.2

4.5 6.3

4.5 8.8

EPCL LOTPTA ENGRO FFBL FFC FATIMA

12.0 9.5 108.0 42.9 120.0 25.1

9.4 8.4 170.4 40.5 144.9 41.5

Sell Reduce Buy Reduce Buy Buy

-1.1 2.8 15.8 11.5 17.7 2.0

1.1 0.8 14.6 5.5 16.3 2.7

0.3 0.9 20.3 7.9 16.3 5.0

-10.9 3.5 6.8 3.7 6.8 12.8

10.4 11.8 7.4 7.8 7.4 9.1

41.0 10.6 5.3 5.4 7.3 5.0

1.27 1.10 1.32 2.94 7.45 1.90

1.13 1.07 1.15 3.16 6.89 1.86

1.09 1.02 0.98 3.07 6.62 1.63

0.0 5.2 3.6 23.3 11.1 6.0

0.0 5.2 4.0 14.0 13.2 12.0

0.0 7.9 4.2 17.6 13.3 20.0

ULEVER EFOODS

7,201.2 69.8

5,213 52.3

Sell Sell

308.0 1.2

369.8 1.9

435.1 3.1

23.4 58.9

19.5 36.3

16.5 25.32 23.78 22.49 22.7 7.25 6.59 5.11

4.3 0.0

4.9 0.0

5.8 0.0

SSGC

21.1

38.6

Buy

5.4

5.7

5.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

1.05

0.86

0.73

9.0

8.5

11.7

AICL

78.0

80.6

Neutral

5.6

6.3

7.6

13.8

12.4

10.3

0.81

0.77

0.72

0.0

9.7

12.3

OGDC POL PSO

163.0 375.6 261.4

188.2 432.0 330.2

Accumulate Accumulate Buy

14.8 45.7 86.2

21.6 52.5 63.1

22.8 61.1 57.4

11.0 8.2 3.0

7.5 7.2 4.1

7.1 6.1 4.6

3.48 2.65 1.07

2.63 2.43 0.86

2.15 2.20 0.74

3.4 9.3 3.8

4.9 10.6 1.9

6.4 12.0 4.2

HUBC KAPCO

38.3 43.5

50.2 52.0

Buy Accumulate

4.8 7.4

5.9 7.5

6.3 8.1

8.0 5.9

6.5 5.8

6.1 5.4

1.41 1.56

1.31 1.50

1.20 1.43

14.4 14.9

14.8 15.5

15.7 16.8

Fixed Line Telecommunication Pakistan Telecommunication PTC Personal Goods Nishat Mills Banks Allied Bank Limited Bank AlFalah Habib Bank Limited Habib Metropolitan Bank MCB Bank Limited National Bank of Pakistan United Bank Ltd

16.1

18.5

Accumulate

1.6

2.1

2.7

9.8

7.6

5.9

0.83

0.83

0.82

10.9

9.3

10.9

NML

51.7

62.4

Buy

13.8

10.0

12.6

3.8

5.2

4.1

0.51

0.48

0.44

6.4

6.4

5.8

ABL BAFL HBL HMB MCB NBP UBL

66.8 17.4 111.3 18.5 174.0 45.6 81.0

69.0 20.0 110.0 20.0 169.0 51.2 82.5

Neutral Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Neutral

10.8 3.2 18.4 3.1 21.0 9.6 12.1

11.7 3.7 19.6 3.5 23.5 10.2 13.1

13.0 4.2 21.0 4.2 25.4 11.0 14.7

6.2 5.4 6.0 5.9 8.3 4.8 6.7

5.7 4.7 5.7 5.2 7.4 4.5 6.2

5.2 4.1 5.3 4.4 6.9 4.1 5.5

1.45 0.90 1.23 0.80 1.75 0.62 1.15

1.26 0.80 1.00 0.71 1.50 0.58 1.05

1.13 0.74 0.90 0.63 1.36 0.56 0.96

6.8 10.1 5.7 8.1 6.3 15.0 9.3

8.2 11.5 6.7 5.4 7.8 15.4 9.3

9.0 13.0 7.2 6.8 8.3 16.5 4.9

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited


May 11, 2012

StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance


Stocks KSE-100 Index Industrial Engineering Al-Ghazi Tractor Millat Tractors Autom obile and Parts Indus Motors Pak Suzuki Motors INDU PSMC 295.00 86.49 13.5 25.4 31.7 45.3 46.7 26.3 34.1 27.7 43.9 46.5 305 97.65 191.1 58.47 AGTL MTL 207.48 489.97 16.1 1.0 15.3 12.8 22.0 21.9 -7.4 -5.2 7.6 34.2 242.06 617.94 158.38 355.77 Sym bol Price 11-May-12 14,230.49 1M 3.0 Absolute Perform ance (%) 3M 6M 12M 16.3 18.2 18.2 YTD 25.4 1 Year High 14,617.97 1 Year Low 10,842.26

Construction and Materials DG Khan Cement Lucky Cement Chem icals Engro Polymer Chemicals Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited Engro Chemical Fatima Fertilizer Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. Fauji Fertilizer Company Food Producers Unilever Pakistan Limited Engro Foods Limited Gas Water & Multiutilities Sui Southern Gas company Non Life Insurance Adamjee Insurance Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Development Co. Pak Oilfields Pakistan State Oil Electricity Hub Pow er Co. Kot Addu Pow er Company HUBC KAPCO 38.32 43.52 2.4 -0.8 5.6 3.5 2.7 4.0 3.7 1.2 12.0 5.3 42.57 47.45 33.01 39.51 OGDC POL PSO 162.97 375.61 261.37 -1.0 2.1 6.3 3.4 2.7 4.0 4.5 4.7 2.7 11.4 15.2 -6.4 7.5 8.4 15.0 170.7 394.75 290.19 120.29 325.12 205.67 AICL 78.00 28.4 51.2 64.0 17.6 67.7 78 40.06 SSGC 21.10 -3.0 11.4 3.5 -0.4 9.4 25.55 16.94 ULEVER 7,201.23 69.78 23.7 45.2 35.5 85.8 28.7 173.3 41.2 182.4 29.4 208.8 7394.1 77.31 4946.4 21.8 EPCL LOTPTA ENGRO FATIMA FFBL FFC 11.98 9.53 107.99 25.06 42.86 119.97 -2.9 15.1 9.2 8.7 7.9 0.5 43.0 12.1 15.3 10.6 -8.7 -0.9 42.3 -14.8 6.4 5.3 -28.2 -3.1 5.0 -39.0 -29.1 99.5 1.9 28.4 64.8 2.8 51.4 9.3 1.0 20.3 13.23 15.62 152.32 26.89 63.67 132.23 7.23 7.9 70.75 12.28 37.67 92.73 DGKC LUCK 44.51 126.95 6.1 2.1 83.2 41.3 109.7 52.9 95.0 80.8 133.9 69.2 46.83 137.64 18.1 69.65

Fixed Line Telecom m unication Pakistan Telecommunication Personal Goods Nishat Mills Banks Allied Bank Limited Askari Bank Limited Bank AlFalah Habib Bank Limited Habib Metropolitan Bank MCB Bank Limited Meezan Bank Limited National Bank of Pakistan United Bank Ltd ABL AKBL BAFL HBL HMB MCB MEBL NBP UBL 66.81 15.10 17.35 111.25 18.50 173.98 27.90 45.58 80.98 2.8 3.1 7.9 1.1 8.4 1.1 -5.1 -5.7 7.1 18.5 56.3 39.9 0.4 5.7 4.6 40.8 30.9 32.5 14.9 59.3 46.0 5.9 -1.3 17.8 57.0 34.8 40.2 17.1 50.7 72.6 0.0 2.7 -6.8 78.8 14.2 26.7 36.4 73.2 54.2 15.4 9.5 42.2 80.6 52.9 54.6 73.39 15.99 18.44 116.54 21.77 191.43 29.86 49.65 89.94 48.67 7.62 9.41 95.95 16.18 122.36 15.14 25.39 51.27 NML 51.70 -11.6 8.8 14.7 -12.2 27.8 61.56 38.27 PTC 16.08 29.8 33.8 48.9 -5.7 54.8 17.67 9.88

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited


May 11, 2012

StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data T-bill 3M 6M 12M PIB 10Y KIBOR 6M Discount rate % % % % % % 13.50 13.75 13.91 14.05 13.94 13.5 13.04 13.26 13.35 13.46 13.38 13.5 13.04 13.23 13.33 13.18 13.35 12.0 12.28 12.32 12.37 12.28 12.23 12.0 11.78 11.79 11.86 12.17 11.91 12.0 11.74 11.67 11.84 12.77 11.98 12.0 11.67 11.70 11.79 12.49 11.90 12.0 11.73 11.79 11.84 12.84 11.90 12.0 11.83 11.90 11.93 13.15 11.95 12.0 Units Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

Inflation Headline inflation Core inflation Food inflation % % % 13.8 10.7 17.6 11.6 10.1 13.2 10.5 10.6 9.9 11.0 10.5 11.7 10.2 10.4 10.0 9.8 10.2 9.5 10.1 10.3 9.2 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.8 10.9 9.8

External Indicators Export (PBS) Import (PBS) Trade Deficit (PBS) Home Remittances Current Account US$ (mn) US$ (mn) US$ (mn) US$ (mn) US$ (mn) 2,203 3,639 (1,436) 1,096 (100) 1,964 3,806 (1,842) 1,310 (201) 1,836 3,622 (1,786) 890 (1,034) 1,896 3,607 (1,711) 1,018 (287) 1,552 3,729 (2,177) 924 (688) 1,854 4,261 (2,407) 1,080 (14) 1,953 3,649 (1,696) 1,111 (364) 2,034 3,462 (1,428) 1,157 (260) 2,001 3,497 (1,496) 1,143 142

Banking Sector Deposits Advances Investments PkR (bn) PkR (bn) PkR (bn) 5,344 3,418 2,593 13.76 5.88 7.88 5,365 3,412 2,657 13.65 6.06 7.59 5,418 3,415 2,764 13.81 6.18 7.63 5,354 3,323 2,934 13.68 6.01 7.67 5,416 3,357 2,962 13.52 5.99 7.53 5,875 3,493 2,970 13.46 5.88 7.58 5,682 3,493 3,047 13.25 5.88 7.37 5,717 3,567 3,037 13.15 5.85 7.30 5,920 3,607 3,089 n.a n.a n.a

Weighted avg lending rate % Weighted avg deposit rate % Spread %

Public Finance Tax collection Direct taxes Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) PkR (mn) PkR (mn) 112,275 28,966 83,309 120,506 32,069 88,437 148,023 63,507 84,516 126,408 39,659 86,749 131,849 45,421 86,428 201,676 102,945 98,731 136,003 41,580 94,423 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Currency Reserves USDPkR - Interbank US$ (mn) PkR/USD 18,295 86.05 18,066 86.53 17,331 87.55 17,065 87.11 16,728 87.07 17,026 89.55 16,843 90.27 16,411 90.73 16,442 90.80

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited


May 11, 2012

StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team


Analyst
Naveed Vakil Raza Jafri, CFA Usman Zahid Ayub Ansari Anum Dhedhi M. Naeem Javid Qasim Anwar Hassan Quadri Azher Ali Quli Nasir Khan Tariq Mehmood

Tel no.
+92 111 253 111 (692) +92 111 253 111 (637) +92 111 253 111 (693) +92 111 253 111 (693) +92 111 253 111 (637) +92 111 253 111 (693) +92 111 253 111 (705) +92 111 253 111 (639) +92 111 253 111 (639) +92 111 253 111 (639) +92 111 253 111 (643)

E-mail
naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net usman.zahid@akdsecurities.net ayub.ansari@akdsecurities.net anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net naeem.javid@akdsecurities.net qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net azher.quli@akdsecurities.net nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

Coverage
E&P, Oil Marketing Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks Cement & Power Fertilizer, Chemical & Telecom Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks Textile, Fertilizer Technical Analysis Research Production Research Production Research Production Library Operations

DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS


This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information, opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied by our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of this publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice. This report is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. It is for information purposes only and is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Neither AKD Securities Limited nor any of its affiliates or any other person connected with the company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained therein. Subject to any applicable laws and regulations, AKD Securities Limited, its affiliates or group companies or individuals connected with AKD Securities Limited may have used the information contained herein before publication and may have positions in, may from time to time purchase or sell or have a material interest in any of the securities mentioned or related securities or may currently or in future have or have had a relationship with, or may provide or have provided investment banking, capital markets and/or other services to, the entities referred to herein, their advisors and/or any other connected parties. AKD Securities Limited (the company) or persons connected with it may from time to time have an investment banking or other relationship, including but not limited to, the participation or investment in commercial banking transaction (including loans) with some or all of the issuers mentioned therein, either for their own account or the account of their customers. Persons connected with the company may provide corporate finance and other services to the issuer of the securities mentioned herein, including the issuance of options on securities mentioned herein or any related investment and may make a purchase and/or sale of the securities or any related investment from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principal or agent. This document is being distributed in the United State solely to "major institutional investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and may not be furnished to any other person in the United States. Each U.S. person that receives this document by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it: is a "major institutional investor", as so defined; and understands the whole document. Any such person wishing to follow-up any of the information should do so by contacting a registered representative of AKD Securities Limited. The securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some states in the U.S. or in some countries. Any recipient, other than a U.S. recipient that wishes further information should contact the company. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose.

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