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01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E 0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S 04: WOMEN ON THE RISE 0 5 : C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y 0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y 0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E 0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E ! 09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE 10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE 1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 .

0 12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY 13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS 14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD 1 5 : N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S 16: ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL 1 7 : C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S 1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N 19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER 2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y

M E G AT R E N D S

M eg a t ren d s a re l o n g -t erm p ro cesses o f t ra n sf o rm a t i o n w i t h a b road scop e and a d ra m a t i c i m p a ct . T h ey a re co n si d ered t o b e p o w erf u l f a ct o rs w h ich shap e f ut ure markets. There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends: T I M E H O RI Z O N M eg a t ren d s ca n b e o b serv ed o v er d eca d es. Q u a n t i t a t i v e, em p irically unam big u o u s i n d i ca t o rs a re a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e p resen t . T h ey ca n b e p ro j e ct ed w it h high p ro b a b i l i t i es a t l ea st 1 5 y ea rs i n t o t h e f u t u re. RE A C H M eg a t ren d s i m p a ct co m p reh en si v el y o n a l l reg i o n s, a n d resu l t in m ult idim ensio n a l t ra n sf o rm a t i o n s o f a l l so ci et a l su b sy st em s, w h et h er i n p o l it ics, societ y, or eco n o m y. T h ei r p reci se f ea t u res v a ry a cco rd i n g t o t h e reg i o n i n q uest ion. INTENSITY OF IMPACT M eg a t ren d s i m p a ct p o w erf u l l y a n d ext en si v el y o n a l l a ct o rs, w het her it is gov ern m en t s, i n d i v i d u a l s a n d t h ei r co n su m p t i o n p a t t ern s, o r c orp orat ions and t h ei r st ra t eg i es. T h e t erm M eg a t ren d s w a s co i n ed b y J o h n N a i sb i t t , w h o , 2 5 y e ars ago, p ublish ed a b o o k o f t h e sa m e t i t l e. M eg a t ren d s p resen t ed 1 0 f a r-re aching develop m en t s w h i ch p a i n t ed a p i ct u re o f o u r f u t u re a t t h e t u rn o f t h e m illennium . The b o o k b eca m e a b est sel l er a n d m a d e N a i sb i t t a t ra i l b l a z er f o r social and econ o m i c t ren d resea rch . W i t h h i n d si g h t , o n e h a s t o a ck n o w l ed g e graciously t hat h i s a n a l y ses d i d n o t l a ck t h e n ecessa ry v i si o n . H e co i n ed , e. g ., t he exp ression G l o b a l i sa t i o n , reco g n i sed ev ery i n d i v i d u a l s i n crea si n g resp onsibilit y f or his o w n l i f e, en v i si o n ed t h e i n f o rm a t i o n a n d m u l t i -o p t i o n so ci et y, and realised how d ecen t ra l , n et w o rk i n g st ru ct u res w o u l d d o m i n a t e t h e n ew m i l l e nnium .

THE TREND TOWARDS

M E G AT R E N D S

To d a y, m eg a t ren d s h a v e b eco m e a rel ev a n t st ra t eg i c i ssu e i n m any corp orat e h ea d qu a rt ers. S i em en s, t o n a m e a si g n i f i ca n t exa m p l e, h a s st ressed t he im p ort a n ce o f m eg a t ren d s f o r i t s b u si n ess o n v a ri o u s o cca si o n s. D riv en by it s CEO, K l a u s K l ei n f el d , S i em en s h a s st a rt ed t o re-a l i g n i t s b u si n ess f i e lds f ocussing on t h e m eg a t ren d s d em o g ra p h i c ch a n g e a n d u rb a n i sa t i o n . O n l y re cent ly, Z_p unkt co o p era t ed w i t h S i em en s Co rp o ra t e S t ra t eg y d ep a rt m en t i n creat ing a corp orat e m a n a g em en t rep o rt o n t h e m eg a t ren d s cru ci a l f o r t h e co m p a n y. S o m e m eg a t ren d s, su ch a s d em o g ra p h i c ch a n g e, h ea l t h , o r m o bilit y, hav e f ound a p l a ce o n m a n y a g en d a s. E xp eri en ce a l so sh o w s, h o w ev er, t h a t businesses dif f er i n t h ei r ev a l u a t i o n o f sp eci f i c m eg a t ren d s t h ei r rel a t i v e st rat egic signif ica n ce b ei n g d et erm i n ed b y a co m p a n y s f o cu s o n sp eci f i c m arket s, p roduct s, a n d cu st o m ers. W i t h i t s n ew g l o b a l m a xi m T h e Co n su m er D ecides , Nike is reco g n i si n g a m eg a t ren d w h i ch w e d escri b e a s a n ew p h a se o f i n dividualiz at ion. G en era l E l ect ri c, o n t h e o t h er h a n d , f o cu ses o n si m i l a r i ssu es as it s com p et it or S i em en s, sh o w ca sed b y i t s n ew E co m a g i n a t i o n a d v ert i si n g cam p aign. H o w ca n co m p a n i es crea t e v a l u e f ro m m eg a t ren d s? Va l u a b l e i n sight s w ill only b e g a i n ed i f i n f o rm a t i o n o n a m eg a t ren d i s t ra n sl a t ed i n t o a com p anys very o w n co n t ext , a n d i n t o f u t u re i n n o v a t i o n f i el d s, m a rk et s, a n d p roduct s. Not t he t ren d a s su ch i s o f i n t erest , b u t i t s st ra t eg i c i m p l i ca t i o n s. I f y o u w ant t o p rep are y o u rsel f i n t i m e f o r t h e f u t u re m a rk et s em erg i n g f ro m m eg a t rends, Z_p unkt can o f f er a w i d e ra n g e o f t ri ed -a n d -t est ed , b u si n ess-sp eci f i c a p p roaches: Whet her i t s l ect u res o r o n e-d a y i n h o u se w o rk sh o p s, i d en t i f i ca t i o n o f st rat egic innov at io n f i el d s o r n ew b u si n ess f i el d s.

THE TREND TOWARDS

M E G AT R E N D S

M E G AT R E N D S

01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

. . . .

In the West, ageing and shrinking populations In the developing countries, a baby boom Increasing migration streams Demographic shifts

M E G AT R E N D S

0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N REACHES A N E W S TA G E

. Individualism, a global phenomenon . Changing relationship patterns: Few strong, many loose relationships . From mass markets to micro markets . Self-sufficiency and DIY-economics

M E G AT R E N D S

0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S

. Increasing health awareness and higher personal responsibility . Health tech health style . New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically modified food, novel food) . New converging markets (food, pharmaceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)

M E G AT R E N D S

04: WOMEN ON THE RISE

. Women are integrated into the working world . Female soft skills become more important . Participation as market actors: Defining influence on product and service standards . Work-life balance

M E G AT R E N D S

0 5 : C U LT U R A L DIVERSITY

. Plural ways of life between tradition and today . Value systems compete globally . Emergence of hybrid culture

M E G AT R E N D S

0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S OF MOBILITY

. Globally, mobility increases . Barriers to mobility increase . Transport infrastructures are upgraded/extended . New vehicle concepts new drive technologies

M E G AT R E N D S

0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E

. Web 2.0: New media find their way into our everyday lives . Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real . Virtual business worlds

M E G AT R E N D S

0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , LEARNING FROM N AT U R E

. Biology becomes the leading science . Renaissance of bionics . Swarm intelligence: New forms of social organisation

M E G AT R E N D S

09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE

. IT-revolution continues . Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces, new surfaces . Neuro sciences, artificial intelligence, and robotics . Transparent society: Surveillance and control

M E G AT R E N D S

10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE

. Information and nanotechnology to be key drivers of convergence . Stimuli in many areas of application (medical science, energy, materials) . NBIC-convergence

M E G AT R E N D S

1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0

. Shift to Asia and a new role for the West . Global strategies, customised to places and regions . Emergence of a global middle class . Globalised Flow of Capital

M E G AT R E N D S

12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY

. Education and learning as a basis . Innovation as a key driver and competition factor . New global knowledge elite the creative class

M E G AT R E N D S

13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS

. Open systems and networks: Limits of industries, markets, and businesses dissolve . New value-adding chains (customer integration, coopetition) . Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to new markets

M E G AT R E N D S

14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD

. Advances in automation (from the sector of production to the sectors of service and knowledge) . Highly flexible working practices (anytime, anywhere) . Flexible, interactive work structures

M E G AT R E N D S

15: NEW CONSUMPTION P AT T E R N S

. The Third World participates in economic wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid) . Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia . Sustainable consumption in the West (LOHAS, Eco Chic, Moral Commerce)

M E G AT R E N D S

1 6 : ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL

. Strategic resource scarcities (fossil fuels, freshwater, minerals, metals) . Use of alternative sources of energy and renewable resources . Revolution in energy efficiency . Decentralised energy supply

M E G AT R E N D S

1 7 : CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

. CO 2 -discharges and global rise of temperatures . Increase of environmental problems in emerging and developing countries . Clean technologies . Corporate responsibility increases

M E G AT R E N D S

1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N

. Megacities grow strongly . Development of adapted infrastructure solutions . New forms of residence, living, and participation

M E G AT R E N D S

19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER

. China and India join the ranks of world powers . Crisis of Western democracies . Russias renaissance . Africa awakes

M E G AT R E N D S

2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L SECURITY

. . . .

Global risk society Festering cultural conflicts and failed states Global terrorism Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction

C O N TA C T

I f y o u a re i n t erest ed i n m eg a t ren d s, p l ea se co n t a ct K l a u s B u rm ei st er, o u r M a n a g i n g D i rect o r ( b u rm ei st er@ z -p u n k t . de) , or H o l g er G l o ck n er, o u r D i rect o r Fo resi g h t Co n su l t i n g ( g l o ck n er@z - p unkt .de) .

ABOUT Z_PUNKT

Z _ p u n k t i s a co n su l t i n g f i rm f o r st ra t eg y a n d i n n o v a t i o n . We are exp ert s in Co rp o ra t e Fo resi g h t , i . e. , i n t ra n sl a t i n g t ren d a n d f u t u re resea r ch int o t he dayt o -d a y w o rk o f st ra t eg i c m a n a g em en t . S i n ce 1 9 9 7, w e h a v e been sup p ort ing b u si n esses a n d p u b l i c i n st i t u t i o n s i n Fo resi g h t Resea rch a n d Consult ing.

Z _ p u n k t G m b H T h e Fo resi g h t Co m p a n y A n n a -S ch n ei d er-S t ei g 2 Rh ei n a u h a f en 5 0 6 78 K l n 0 0 49 - ( 0 ) 2 2 1 - 3 5 5 5 3 4 - 0 h t t p : / / w w w. z -p u n k t . d e g l o ck n er@ z -p u n k t . d e w a t k i n s@ z -p u n k t . d e

01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E 0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S 04: WOMEN ON THE RISE 0 5 : C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y 0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y 0 7 : D I Berlin L I F Copyright Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company Kln KarlsruheG I TA L 2008E S T Y L E 0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E ! 09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE 10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE 1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0 12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY 13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS 14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD 1 5 : N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S 16: ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL 1 7 : C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S 1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N 19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER
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M E G AT R E N D S

2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y