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Armi Susandi Studies Program of Meteorology Department of Geophysics and Meteorology Institut Teknologi Bandung Jl. Ganesa no. 10 Bandung Phone:+62-22-2500494 Fax.:+62-22-2534139 email: email@example.com
In this study, we expressed the model of deforestation as a function of the direct causes, each of these expressed as a function of the indirect causes. The population and GDP growth used as indirect causes of deforestation. In this model, we assume that deforestation is caused by roundwood consumption, forest-product export, conversion to cropland, and forest fire. We calculate the elasticity of forest fire deforestation with respect to the population based on forest fire data between 1991 and 2000. Finally, we analyze emissions of carbon dioxide as consequent of deforestation rate in Indonesian forest.
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disturbing wildlife populations and alienating local people from their inherited lands. (Smith and Bouvier. Around 21 percent of Indonesia’s forests are protected. Deforestation in Indonesia has been increasing. who abandon plots after six or seven years due to declining yields. 2000). we develop the model of deforestation in Indonesia. which has a total forest area of more than 144 million ha. encompasses more than just subsistence or food crops. most of the fires that damaged vast areas of the Indonesian tropical forest in 1997 were purposely and illegally set by plantation companies to clear natural forests and subsistence agricultural areas that had been used for generations by local communities. and lack of law enforcement are tremendous problems. 2000). and the country had a rate of about 1 percent annual forest loss by the mid1990s. Estimates of deforestation range from 1.1994).1.3 million ha to 2 million ha per year (World Bank. and half of what remains is currently endangered (World Bank. Illegal logging. diverse natural forests and fallows are destroyed permanently. Apportionment of the deforestation rate among proximate causes is even less precise. 2 . Thus. Logging is thought to cause deforestation not through clear cutting. Indonesia has already lost an approximate 72 percent of its original limit forest. There are shifting cultivation systems which include both staple crops and exportoriented tree products. Once the forests are burned. For instance. however. often presumed to be subsistence-oriented. but by facilitating entry and clearing by shifting cultivators (Barbier et al. in some low-population density areas. Much of the remainder is attributed to shifting cultivators. In addition. We use population and economic growth as the driving forces of deforestation. In this paper. Shifting cultivation in Indonesia. corruption. 1993). and with the establishment of large plantations for palm oil or pulpwood. Introduction Indonesia has some 10 percent of the world’s remaining tropical forest. the government allocates the burned areas to corporations which establish vast monocultures of exotic species for pulpwood or palm oil. Much deforestation is associated with the settlement of official transmigration sites. coffee is grown by shifting cultivators.
Deforestation from cropland conversion (including transmigration and infrastructure development) at 838.000 ha per year (Bappenas.2% annual increase during 1990 – 2000 (FWI/GFW.497 ha for the years of 1999. 162. external debt and government policies. In 1998. 1994 and 1997. such shifting cultivation and crop land conversion (START. the forest area burnt amounted to 119. Deforestation rate due to round wood consumption was 377. i.000. respectively (Dirjen PHPA. 2000).090. each of these has previously been expressed as a function of the indirect causes. and conversion to pasture land. we substituted conversion to pasture land as an direct cause of deforestation with forest fire.000 ha per year during 1982 – 1990 (ALGAS. Boer et al. 14.. Most fires are mainly in agricultural lands rather than in forest lands (KMNLH and UNDP. the average area affected by forest fire was about 100. assuming 1. The causes of fires are largely due to changes in land use. 3 . We extrapolate this to increase to 938. Model of deforestation Causes of tropical deforestation have been classified into two levels.000 ha per year. The first-level (or direct) causes are grouped into two classes. pressure for forest products (for consumption and exports) and pressure on forest land alternative (cropland) land uses. 2000. The rate of deforestation is expressed as a function of the direct causes.000 ha.330.000. The second-level (or indirect) causes of deforestation are population. See Kant’s and Redantz (1997) for a detail description. and 265. and 2002. Roundwood consumption and forest product export are also the common causes of deforestation after agriculture development.. the largest forest fire ever in the world burnt 514.000 ha (Dirjen PHPA. 1998 identified agriculture development as the main causes of deforestation in Indonesia. 1997). gross domestic product. and 35. Later. 2002). 1992).016.e. conversion to cropland.560 ha per year in 2000. DGFPNC (2003) reports that the extent of forest fire was 44. Forest fires have caused much damage to economy and environment. Based on the forest fire data from 1982-1990. 3. We have modified an econometric model of tropical deforestation and apply them to Indonesian deforestation case. 2001. 1998). which occurs mostly every year in Indonesia.000 ha per year during 1982 – 1990 as reported by ALGAS (1997). Kant and Redantz’s (1997) model assume that deforestation is caused by roundwood consumption.2. 1997). 1999). export of forest products. In the El-Niño years of 1991. In addition. deforestation from forest product export was around 705.
we make forest fire deforestation with respect to the population.6509 Dtroundwood −1 0. We calculated the elasticity (e) of deforestation (D) with respect to the population (P) as e = (δD / D ) / (δP / P ) . 1997. based on deforestation data between 1990 and 2000. export of forest products.respectively. we simulate the indirect causes of deforestation (population. and GDP growth ( YG ) as e = (δD / D ) / (δYG / YG ) for Indonesia.0434 Dtcropland −1 (4) D fire t ⎛ P =⎜ t ⎜P ⎝ t −1 Dtfire −1 (5) where Dt is total deforestation in year t 4 . Firstly. We have chosen the first-level (direct) causes of deforestation in Indonesia as roundwood consumption. This paper expands the work of Susandi and Tol (2004) in two ways.6171 (3) D cropland t ⎛ Y ⎞ = ⎜ t − 1⎟ ⎜Y ⎟ ⎝ t −1 ⎠ ⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ 0. we assume that forest fire deforestation falls gradually over time by decade in the years after 2000. the average area affected by forest fire was about 35. gross domestic product) with three different trajectories to reflect future demographic (Lutz.0668 (2) D exp ort t ⎞ ⎛YW = ⎜ tW − 1⎟ ⎟ ⎜Y ⎝ t −1 ⎠ Dtexp ort −1 0. as suggestion by Kant. In the original model (Susandi and Tol. Based on the percentage with and without El-Niño years during 1991-2000. because of an increasing effort in forest fire prevention. Total deforestation model is described below: Dt = Dtroundwood + Dtexp ort + Dtcropland + Dt fire (1) with D roundwood t ⎛ P ⎞ =⎜ t ⎟ ⎜P ⎟ ⎝ t −1 ⎠ 0. 2004).781 ha per year. UN. change in cropland and forest fire. Understanding the linkages between the first-level (direct) causes and the second-level (indirect) ones is also important. Secondly. 1998) and socio economic development uncertainty.
B1.87 3.63 3.497 ha 5 . These scenarios are follow the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) as wrote on IPCC.46 3.14 3. rising from 35.Dtroundwood Dtexp ort Dtcropland Dt fire is deforestation of round wood consumption in year t is deforestation of forest products export in year t is deforestation of cropland in year t is deforestation of forest fire in year t is the total population of Indonesia in year t is the total GDP of the rest of the world in year t is the GDP of Indonesia in year t Pt YtW Yt Population and economic growth are the driving forces of deforestation.93 A2 0.15 B1 0. In the A1B and the B1 scenarios. Results In the year 2000. In our model. Table 1. medium.59 3. Table 1 shows total growth between 2000 and 2100 for the four scenarios. These data are an expressed of population data projection from 2000 to 2050 with three different variants: low.497 ha per year. population lead first to increasing forest fire deforestation. and high. 1999). the results of deforestation of forest fire are given in Figure 1.03 2.14 4.07 2. Total growth of population and GDP between 2000 and 2100 (resume for Indonesia) Set Population growth (% per year) GDP growth (% per year) Per capita GDP growth (% per year) A1B 0. We use historical and projected population data from UN (2003). Indonesian deforestation of forest fire was 35. and B2). We extrapolate the population and GDP data projection for the next year to 2100 based on the growth rate of the previously data. The GDP data for Indonesia are taken from the AIM model (Morita and Lee. A2.48 B2 0.08 3. 2000 and we selected four SRES scenarios (A1B.
900 ha per year in 2100. with 34% of total deforestation in 2000.000 35.900 ha per year in 2050. corresponding to about 857. Forest product export is the second contributor to deforestation. this decreases to 39% of total deforestation.000 A1B A2 B1 B2 36. Deforestation of roundwood consumption increase gradually from 422. We assume that the B2 scenario is as reference scenario with the medium population and economy development projection. FAO and MoF 1990. slightly decreases to 32% of total deforestation in 2100.500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year 2070 2080 2090 2100 Figure 1.700 ha per year in 2100. Angelsen and Resosudarmo 1999). These scenarios are based on a variant the low population projection.500 35.400 ha per year in 2100 (Figure 1). cropland is the main contributor of the total rate of deforestation at 45% of total deforestation in 2000. in the B2 scenario. It is estimated that deforestation due to forest fire contributes was minor (Dick 1991.000 34.37. In Figure 2. 6 .500 ha/year 36.240 ha per year (20% of total deforestation) in 2000 to 28% of total deforestation in 2100 (Figure 2). For the median population projections. Indonesian forest fire deforestation increases to 36. then decreasing gradually to 35.200 ha per year in 2100. Deforestation of forest fire per year in 2000 to 35. The highest population trajectory in Indonesia will drive forest fire deforestation to 36.
Percentage of deforestation for reference scenario (B2 scenario) 3.000.000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year A1B A2 B1 B2/Ref Figure 3. Total deforestation with various scenarios Figure 3 shows that the rate of deforestation with various scenarios. the rate of deforestation is slightly decrease in 7 . In the A1B and the B1 scenarios.000. so. Even the population growth in the A2 scenario is highest but economy development is the lowest growth as driven to cropland deforestation.500.000 1. the rate of cropland deforestation is higher than in the B1 scenario.000 500. In the A1B scenario. the rate of deforestation is the same except the rate of cropland deforestation.500.000 2.000 2.000.000 ha/year 1.100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year roundwood consumption forest product export cropland change forest fire Figure 2.
Conclusions In this paper. The projection of deforestation levels for the year 2000 to the year 2100 are based on four SRES scenarios A1B. Indirect cause of forest fire relate to population would highest in the A2 scenario with the average Indonesian population growth rate over 100 years is 0. 8 . B1 50 40 30 20 10 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Figure 4.87% per year. In the B2 scenario (reference scenario). we developed the model of deforestation in Indonesia as implication of future demographic and socio-economic development. Our scenario projections indicate that economic development would lead the main contributor of cropland deforestation higher than other causes of deforestation. A2.million tonnes of C 500 490 480 470 460 450 440 430 2000 2020 2040 Year 2060 2080 2100 B2/Ref Diff. later increases to the end of century as implication of population development (Figure 3). A1B Diff. A2 Diff. In the A1B scenario. B1 and B2 (differing with respect to population and GDP growth). but still higher than in the A1B and B2 scenarios (Figure 3). and B2 scenarios compare to the B2 scenario (right-hand axis). 4. later decrease gradually. Carbon emission from deforestation the first half of century. Figure 4 shows the corresponding emissions of carbon dioxide (left-hand axis) and difference of carbon emission from the A1B. the rate of deforestation would higher than other scenarios first. A2. deforestation increases slightly to the first half of century and decreases slightly to the end of century.
Emissions of carbon dioxide from deforestation in Indonesia has also high and continue unabated. making the country a potentially big supplier of projects under CDM (clean development mechanism). Indonesia should be consider on those by slowing deforestation activities. 9 .
1999 Krismon. R. Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR). BAPPENAS (National Development Planning Board). and J. 1992 Proceedings of International workshop on Long-Term Integrated Forest Fire Management in Indonesia. Boer.References ALGAS (Asian Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy). edited by A. Pearce. Sugandhy. Edward. 17-18 June 1992. 1991 Forest Land Use. Bappenas. Jakarta. Setiawan. Barbier. Forest Use Zonation. D.. Background paper for UN Conference on Environment and Development Prepare for KLH and Bapedal. Angelsen. Ivar Strand. N. eds. A. 1997 Taxonomy of Greenhouse Gases Mitigation Options for Energy and Non Energy Sectors Technical Report TASK B 2. A. 19 pp... Bandung. Bey. Jakarta. Boer and Gunardi. A. M. 2003 Forestry Statistics of Indonesia 2002 Department of Forestry Republic of Indonesia. J. A. 1994 The timber trade and tropical deforestation in Indonesia In Katrina Brown and David W. The Causes of Tropical Deforestation. Jakarta. London. Jakarta. R. 1998 Economic Assessment of GHG abatement options for forestry sector In Proceedings ALGAS-Final National Workshop. S. UCL Press. Joanne Burgess. Gintings. 10 . and Deforestation in Indonesia. Dick. Farmers and Forests: The Effect of the Economic Crisis on Farmers’ Livelihoods and Forest Use in the Outer Island of Indonesia Unpublished Paper. M. Resosudarmo. Nancy Bockstael.P. Wahyudi. Bey. I. DGFPNC (Directorate General of Forest Protection and Nature Conservation). Government of Indonesia. Baharsjah. de Rozari. Indonesia.
1 Volume2.). 1997 Langkah-langkah penanggulangan kebakaran hutan selama musim kemarau tahun 1997 di Indonesia Jakarta. factor. Washington. 11 . 5-15. Cambridge University Press. 1998 Forest fire and areas in Indonesia: impacts. (ed. W. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Earthscan. pp. Edition 1 Ministry of Environment and United Nation Development Programme. Forestry Study Technical Report No. A. Bogor. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Indonesia UTF/INS/065/INS. Forest Watch Indonesia. Directorate General of Forest Utilization Department of Forestry. Forest Watch Indonesia/Global Forest Watch (FWI/GFW). factor and evaluasi). and evaluation (Kebakaran hutan dan lahan di Indonesia: dampak . Indonesia. 1990 Situation and outlook for the forestry sector in Indonesia: Forest Resource base. Jakarta. 1997 An econometric model of tropical deforestation Journal of Forest Management 3:1. Lutz. DC. FAO and MoF. KMNLH and UNDP. 1996. 2002 The State of The Forest: Indonesia.Dirjen PHPA (Directorate General of Forest Protection and Nature Conservation). Indonesia.. Indonesia and Global Forest Watch. London-England. Kant S and Redantz. 2000 Emission Scenarios: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Cambridge. The Future Population of the World: What can we assume today? 2nd Edition.
Version 1. UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs (Population Division). 2000 The World Bank Forest Strategy: Striking the Right Balance The World Bank. p. 2004 The impact of international emissions reduction on energy and forestry sector of Indonesia.. 44. Washington.Morita. 12 . 1999 IPCC SRES Database.0. Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Smith. NY. Indonesia. Report on Earth System Science. New York.nies. 2000 Asian Aerosol Data Synthesis Project: Aerosol from forest fire in Indonesia. D. Glenn. and R. In Susandi. UN (United Nations).C.-C.. NY.v. Tol. Jakarta. UN (United Nations).go. T. and Hélène Bouvier.S. Emission Scenario Database prepare for IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (http:www-cger. q. The Impact of International Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction on Indonesia. and H.html). Lee. START. A. 1998 World Population Projections to 2150. New York. Susandi. World Bank. 2003 World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. United Nations. 2004.J.1993 Spontaneous migrants strategies and settlement processees in mountains and plains in Charras and Pain (1993).jp/cger-e/db/ipcc.
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