You are on page 1of 12

A non-conventional energy future

Christophe de Margerie
Chairman & CEO TOTAL APPEA 2012 Conference Adelaide, May 14th

TOTAL’s LT vision of the world energy mix
Mboe/d 340.0
320.0

300.0
280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0

300
2% 10% 6%

2% 3% 11% 6% 24%

4% 3% 11% 6%

Solar, wind, others Hydro Biomass Nuclear

Moderate growth of global energy demand (+25% in 20 years) Fossil fuels = 76% of energy supply in 2030 Oil production expected to level off at around 96 Mb/d

200
26%

22%

Coal

140.0
120.0 100.0 81% 100 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0

23% 22%

24%

Gas

76%
31%
30%
Oil

Gas to become the secondlargest energy source
Strong growth but limited contribution of new energies  Solar : +15% CAGR

33%

2010

2020(e)

2030(e)

 Biofuels : +5% CAGR

Source: Total, as of feb. 2012

2

Unconventional resources are key for our industry’s future

Oil resources

Gas resources

~3,500 Bboe

~2,500 Bboe

100

Unconventional resources
oil shale
130

80

extra heavy oil
Years of production at current pace

unrisked tight oil

unrisked shale & tight gas, CBM

Years of production at current pace

35

Yet to find and increased recovery rate Identified resources Already produced

80
50

3

Unconventional oil and gas rebalancing resources geographical distribution
Oil 2350 Gboe (*) Conventional 70% (*) excluding oil shales Unconventional 30% Gas 2500 Gboe Conventional 49% Unconventional 51%

FSU North America Europe

Middle East Africa Asia

South America

% : repartition of conventional and unconventional reserves and resources per region

Conventional oil

Unconventional oil

Conventional gas
4

Unconventional gas

Growth in global gas demand (+2.5% per year between 2010-2020) led by a booming Asian market (+6.2% per year)
North America
Bcf/d 90
Gas demand +1.5% CAGR

Europe
Bcf/d 90
Gas demand +1.8% CAGR

Asia
Bcf/d 90
Gas demand +6.2% CAGR

60

60

60

30

30

30

10

20(e) Domestic supply

10

20(e) Existing LNG contracts

10

20(e)

Pipeline imports

Increase of gas consumption in the North American energy mix, moderated by energy efficiency programs LNG imports/exports to remain marginal

 Demand driven by power generation, especially in Eastern Europe and Turkey  Gas, best alternative (versus nuclear or coal) to meet increasing energy needs

 China as a new driver of LNG demand  Real but limited global impact of Fukushima accident

5

LNG, a growth market with increase in demand = +5% per year between 2010-2020
Mt/y 600
~100
~50

Global LNG supply / demand

Strong LNG demand in both traditional and emerging markets
Other demand

Asian market particularly strong
Complexity of LNG projects increasing tensions on supply

400
~15

200

Asian demand

Tightening markets supportive of gas prices in Europe and Asia
2005 2010
2015(e)

2020(e)

2025(e)

2030(e)

LNG nominal capacities Existing facilities Approved projects

LNG supply LNG supply based on other identified projects

Large capital requirements needed to match LNG demand

6

Australia’s LNG industry is changing scale, to become the world’s largest LNG exporter by 2017/18
140 120 100 mmtpa 80
Qatari capacity

 Large resource potential and favourable location to serve the Asian market
Projects under construction to increase fourfold the $25B Australian LNG production capacity by 2016-2018 A major industrial and $45B human challenge
$35B Project costs and operating $16B costs shall be kept under control to remain competitive versus other LNG exporting countries $26B

60
40 20 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

operating Possible

Under construction speculative

Source: Woodmac

7

Total is a global LNG actor, with large projects under way
As of 31/12/2011
Yamal LNG (FEED) 15 Mt/y TOTAL: 20%

Ichthys 8.4 Mt/y TOTAL: 24%

8

Three LNG projects under development
Ichthys
(24%)

Capacity 8.4 Mt/y of LNG, 1.6 Mt/y of LPG ~100 kb/d of condensates Start-up end-2016 34 B$ investment including LNG plant

LNG sold on long-term contracts indexed to oil price

Angola LNG (13.6%)

GLNG (27.5%)

Upstream LNG
Mt/y

Start-up: 1H12 Capacity: 5.2 Mt/y of LNG

Start-up: 2015 Capacity: 7.2 Mt/y of LNG
9

CSR embedded in our strategy to be ACCEPTABLE

Ethics and human rights at the forefront Ethics committee reporting directly to CEO Anti-corruption and compliance programs Human Rights Internal Guide Active member of Global Compact LEAD

Careful environmental stewardship Minimizing environmental impact (air, water, soil…) Limiting green house gas emissions Improving energy efficiency Reducing flaring

Taking care of local communities Working together with local stakeholders

Being a local actor, wherever we are
Listening to local communities and entertaining a real dialog with them

Emphasizing local content Volume of gas flared
Msm3/d

10

Making non-conventional developments acceptable
We have to understand and to address a widespread feeling of distrust towards energy companies
 A global issue  Severe accidents in the recent past: Fukushima, Macondo  Critics and fears towards technologies used in new hydrocarbon developments: deep offshore, shale gas, oil sands...

Gas developments in Australia need to be better understood
 Number and size of projects will inevitably have an impact  The industry must • Better communicate about the projects • Treat industrial safety and environmental stewardship as top priorities • Identify potential nuisance, mitigate them and enter into a sincere dialog with the communities concerned

11

A non-conventional energy future
Christophe de Margerie
Chairman & CEO TOTAL APPEA 2012 Conference Adelaide, May 14th