YEARS

MAKING MA RK
S ET

CRISIL FUND INSIGHTS
Monthly funds newsletter from CRISIL Research
Volume - 11 March 2012

CTION BE TT FUN ER

For most investors, portfolio diversification is one that includes securities or mutual funds across asset classes, i.e., equity, debt, gold, etc based on their risk profile. Geographical diversification is conspicuous by its absence. Investors can look at international funds to reduce risks and enhance returns via diversification across geographies, currencies and different market conditions. Currently, 17 fund houses in India offer this choice. These funds are available across developed and emerging markets as well as under different fund management styles, viz. active and passive management. Investors who have fully diversified their portfolios across domestic funds can look at geographic diversification as per their risk-return requirements. The benefit of investing in international funds can be seen in Table 1. Developed market equities (indices) performed better than emerging market equities in the bear phase (2008 and 2011) while emerging market equities outperformed in a bull phase. Thus, global diversification of one's portfolio through a selection of international equity mutual funds not only reduces risks in a bear phase but also enhances returns in a bull phase. These funds are professionally managed by Indian registered mutual funds that directly invest in foreign securities or overseas mutual funds (which in turn invest in foreign securities). Table 1 - Calendar year performance of global equity indices Market Phase
DJIA (US) FTSE (UK) Nikkei (Japan) S&P CNX Nifty (India) Shanghai (China) Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Strait Times (Singapore) BOVESPA (Brazil) RTS (Russia) 2004 3.15 7.54 7.61 10.68 -15.40 13.15 17.09 17.81 8.26 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -0.61 16.29 6.43 -33.84 18.82 16.71 10.71 3.80 -31.33 22.07 6.92 -11.13 -42.12 19.04 40.24 29.73 46.96 54.77 -51.79 75.76 -8.33 130.43 96.66 -65.39 79.98 4.54 34.20 39.31 -48.27 52.02 13.61 27.20 16.63 -49.41 64.49 27.71 32.93 43.65 -41.22 82.66 83.29 70.75 19.18 -72.41 128.62 2010 11.02 9.00 -3.01 17.95 -14.31 5.32 10.09 1.05 22.54 2011 5.53 -5.55 -17.34 -24.62 -21.68 -19.97 -17.04 -18.11 -21.94 2012* 6.01 5.37 14.50 16.45 10.42 17.61 13.14 15.96 25.56
Developed

Investment thoughts

International Equity Funds – Go global to diversify your portfolio

Chart 1 - Types of International funds in India
Types of International Funds in India

Actively Managed International Funds

Passively Managed International Funds Funds of Funds

Emerging

Invest entire corpus only in one market

Invest around 65-70% in Indian markets and remaining 35-30% in global markets

Exchange Traded Funds

DJIA- Dow Jones Industrial Average, All figures in percentage, * till February 29, 2012 indicates bull phase indicates bear phase Returns in green denote maximum returns in that year Returns in orange denote minimum returns in that year
Foreign Fund is a Mother Fund Local Fund is a Feeder Fund

For investors who want to protect their portfolio from market uncertainty, exposure to developed market indices via mutual funds provides an ideal hedge. Similarly, investors looking for higher
Table 2 - Calendar year performance of international equity funds
2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Emerging Markets Average 10.12 -11.90 11.84 74.13 Min 5.87 -25.28 7.11 51.38 Max 16.88 -1.62 24.13 104.22 Developed Markets Average 8.92 -9.74 11.44 59.49 Min 1.60 -25.55 4.90 26.23 Max 15.39 7.86 21.88 78.73 Domestic Benchmark S&P CNX Nifty 16.45 -24.62 17.95 75.76 All figures are in percentage, *till February 29, 2012

returns can look at investing in emerging markets/ high-growth economies like India. As seen in Table 2, developed market funds gave higher returns or declined less in the volatile periods (2011 and 2008), while emerging market indices scored higher in bull period (2007, 2009, 2010 and 2012 YTD).

-51.27 55.19 -51.93 55.19 -50.28 55.19 -44.50 24.86 -55.18 24.86 -30.07 24.86 -51.79 54.77

International Funds - Risk factors
i) Currency risk Underlying securities in international funds or investments in mother funds are made in foreign currency, which makes them vulnerable to the currency risk. This was seen in recent times when the dollar appreciated sharply against most emerging market currencies, with the domestic rupee reaching historic lows. For example, if an investor invests Rs 50,000 in an international fund when the rupee conversion rate is Rs 50 per US dollar (1,000 units @ 1 unit per US dollar), and exits when the conversion rate is Rs 54 per US dollar, the investor's gain on account of the conversion factor would be Rs 4,000 [1,000 units * (54-50)], assuming there are no mark-to-market gains/ losses. However, on the negative side, the appreciation of the rupee can result in capital loss.

ii) Country/ geo-political risks - International funds will always be subject to country-specific, economic and geo-political risks. Some international funds invest only in one country, hence any political or economic problems in that country will have a negative impact on the performance of these funds. For e.g., the economic dishevel caused by a tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan in February 2011 impacted its market severely compared to other global markets. iii) Tax treatment - International funds which invest at least 65% in Indian stocks and the remaining in international markets are categorised as equity funds and, accordingly, enjoy tax benefits. Short-term capital gains are taxed at 10% for these funds while long-term capital gains are tax free. All other types of funds in this category are taxed like debt funds, where the long-term gains would be taxed at a flat rate of 10% without indexation or 20% with indexation. The short-term gains will be added to the investor's income and will be taxed as per the applicable slab rates. Hence, investors must understand the structure of the international fund to know the tax implications.

Conclusion
International funds allow investors to reduce risks and increase returns via diversification across geographies, currencies and different market conditions. Investors can choose to invest in emerging markets or developed markets as per their risk profile and investment objectives. Investors who prefer active management, should look at international fund of funds or pure international funds. For passive investors, the ETF route for international funds will suffice. However, investors should invest in international funds only after having diversified their portfolio in the domestic mutual fund market first.

CNX Realty gained the most. In the secondary market. the aggregated information will also be available on the website of the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI).18 6.55% (January 2012) n n Mutual Fund Overview 8. with views of strong demand due to positive US economic indicators and Greece securing the second bailout.26 1. SEBI allowed the same fund manager to manage the portfolios of the mutual fund.20% 6.February 2012 May-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jun-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jul-11 Feb-12 Jan-12 5. ITC Ltd.27% 6. led to the rise in global oil prices. n . Commercial Engineers & Body Builders Co. n n n n n n n Fund news n The International Advisory Board (ISB).Software Pharmaceuticals Refineries/Marketing Diversified Cigarettes Telecom . All sectoral indices except CNX Pharma ended positive during the month. n n February 29.28 4. up over 8. however. FIIs bought equities worth Rs 25. ICICI Bank Ltd. Some gains were. mutual funds sold equities worth Rs 2. Income funds (including ultra short term debt funds) witnessed outflows of Rs 2.93 11.87 11.91 1. Top Sector Exposures . SEBI asked fund houses launching fixed maturity plans (FMPs) to spell out sectors they will refrain from investing in. Setco Automotive Ltd.February 2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Infosys Ltd.90 1.22 1. Positive global cues included strong US jobs data and expectations that the Eurozone debt crisis may ease. 2012 5385 17753 January 31. Sonata Software Ltd. Shukra Jewellery Ltd.The month-end portfolios as of February 2012 and quarterly average assets under management (AUM) as of December 2011 have been considered for the report.6 60000 7.37 4. if the investment objective and asset allocation were the same. offshore fund. which may influence investors’ investment decisions. etc.61% during the month after pharma companies posted disappointing quarterly earnings and as investors ignored defensive pharma stocks in a rising market. HDFC Bank Ltd.36 3. 2012 8. up around 14%. SEBI said the policies and procedures approved by the AMC board should identify the methodologies to be used for valuing each type of security/asset held by the scheme. mutual funds were net buyers to the tune of Rs 20.5% to Rs 1.191 cr in February.CRISIL FUNDINSIGHTS n Market . constituted by SEBI.86 lakh cr in February due to rise in the equity market despite witnessing outflows of Rs 2. CNX Midcap index was the second biggest gainer. JSW Energy Ltd.860 cr during February taking the total asset for the category to Rs 1. SEBI mandated that such fund managers must replicate at least 70% of the portfolio as well as report reasons if there is more than 10% deviation in returns across such funds. Multi Commodity Exchange Of India Ltd. the second consecutive month of selling. Domestic cues such as encouraging corporate earnings and fall in monthly inflation numbers added to the gains in the market. Assets of equity funds surged by Rs 6. emerging developments and challenges. the highest monthly buying since records and compared to buying of Rs 11.66 11. Orbit Corporation Ltd.75 lakh cr in February 2012 primarily due to mark-to-market gains in equity funds and inflows into money market funds.58 3.92 n The Indian mutual fund industry’s month-end assets under management (AUM) rose by around 2% or Rs 16. Exits 3i Infotech Ltd. SEBI widened the definition of ‘advertisement’ to include all forms of communications on behalf of an AMC. 2012 8. State Bank Of India Bharti Airtel Ltd. capped due to intermittent profit booking as well as weak domestic growth forecast for the fiscal year.4 -80000 Net Flows Rs cr 130000 Note .089 cr in the previous month.97 0. Reliance Industries Ltd. Jubilant Industries Ltd.February 2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Banks Computers . Among major regulatory developments.75 0.25 n n Indicators 10 Yr Gsec Monthly WPI Inflation February 29.76 0. Shriram Group proposed to revive its defunct mutual fund business and plans to launch new products in the next six months.217 cr in February.71 2. Larsen & Toubro Ltd. HDFC Ltd. SEBI asked mutual funds to disclose daily n n n transaction in debt securities with a 30-day lag on their websites. 2012 5199 17194 Absolute Change 186 559 % Change 3.2 Net flows (Rs cr) Industry AUM (Rs lakh cr) 200000 Top Stock Exposures .the first time the category posted outflows for four months in a row. Astral Poly Technik Ltd.Overview Indices S&P CNX Nifty BSE Sensex The Indian equity market (S&P CNX Nifty) rose around 4% in February.803 cr in January. Source: AMFI Category/Index returns Large Cap Funds Diversified Equity Funds Small and Midcap Funds Balanced Funds Monthly Income Plans Long Term Gilt Funds Long Term Debt Funds Ultra Short Term Funds Liquid Funds Gold Funds* *CRISIL Gold Index Absolute Monthly Returns% Feb 2012 Jan 2012 3. TCS Ltd. In the debt market.100 cr to Rs 6.95% (February 2012) January 31. Ltd.15 8. portfolio management service (PMS).8 -150000 Entries Everonn Education Ltd. versus net selling of Rs 1.57 lakh cr (6.77 1.Services Oil Exploration Cement Power AUM Rs lakh cr 7. The ISB was constituted by SEBI in September 2011 to guide the regulator about global experiences. industrial production data for December at a dismal 1.5% gains) at the end of the month.77 0. Concerns surrounding supply disruption from Iran. primarily due to persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) buying and firm global cues. Further.8% and rising global oil prices which touched $107 per barrel as of end February from $98 at the beginning of the year. New Stocks Entries and Exits in Mutual Fund Portfolios . Money market funds witnessed inflows of Rs 6.0 -10000 6.809 cr in the month (the highest outflow for any category in the month) on profit booking.5% while the CNX Auto index rose by 8.082 cr or 3.712 cr compared to net buying of Rs 9. said that the mutual fund industry needs to widen the investor base and educate investors.440 cr in the previous month.14 0.527 cr . Essar Oil Ltd. CNX Pharma index lost around 1. To ensure credit quality and mitigate risks. Kirloskar Industries Ltd.42% on the back of high industry sales in January.

62 14.Crore) Change Mutual Fund Name Oct-Dec Jul-Sep 2011 2011 Change % (Rs.71 15.35 11.Crore) (Rs. HDFC Monthly Income Plan LTP's risk profile is aggressive since its allocation to equity is higher.72 6.79 2.14 33. 2012 Returns are annualised for periods above 1-year.e.Crore) (Rs.40 -1 22 -15 NA -25103 -0.76 10.45 14.37 0.43 0.52 -853 -12.11 MIP Conservative Birla Sun Life MIP II .65 8.December 2011 For a detailed write-up on the CRISIL Mutual Fund Ranking and the complete ranking list. The fund is hybrid in nature. 2012 vis-à-vis Rs 1.60 -5.02 -7.91 42.4% returns by peers.Crore) (Rs.30 6.71 If an investor had invested Rs 1. other wise actualised Risk Ratios are annualised for a period of two years For Sharpe Ratio the risk free rate is 7. Chart 1: HDFC Monthly Income Plan LTP's Performance as on Feb 29 18 16 14 HDFC Monthly Income Plan .A Bird's Eye View Mutual Fund Name Oct-Dec 2011 (Rs.61 11.82 38. the initial capital would have grown to Rs 2.69 7.00 9.Crore) Month Month Months Years Years Inception Date Std.61 BNP Paribas Mutual Fund L&T Mutual Fund Taurus Mutual Fund Baroda Pioneer Mutual Fund Peerless Mutual Fund 4805 4616 4599 4582 4390 5243 4135 5367 3399 5608 4358 4536 1971 1505 1036 NA 789 723 447 869 456 447 278 206 157 176 NA 712742 -438 481 -8. The risk profile of the fund falls between that of a pure debt fund and a balanced fund (greater than 50% allocation to equity).50 NA 8.64 28. between 16% and 30%.19 0.65 5.58 299. AAUM is quarterly average number and includes Fund of Funds Every month.46 7. -329 -37.crisil.877 cr as of October-December 2011.14 -8. The performance over the past three years has been notable with the fund delivering close to 16% returns vis-à-vis 9% returns of the benchmark index (CRISIL MIPEX) and 10.81 -1218 -21.11 Fund Manager Prashant Jain (Equity Fund Manager) is MBA and CFA (USA).05 1176 -55 23.13 -2.37 -7.Hybrid Mutual Funds' Performance Report Point to Point Returns % Average AUM Since 1 3 6 1 3 Inception (Rs.19 -5624 -11.48 NA -3.LTP CRISIL MIPEX MIP Aggressive funds Returns (%) Average Assets under Management .62 -768 -14. Fund Focus will feature one of the CRISIL Mutual Fund Rank 1 Schemes .71 8. with a predominant investment in debt designed to provide regular income to investors in the form of dividends at a regular frequency.21 10.18 MIP Aggressive Canara Robeco Monthly Income Plan HDFC Monthly Income Plan .Crore) Jul-Sep 2011 Change % (Rs.55 11.76 -5.39 3-Apr-01 26-Dec-03 340.93 -7.98 11-Sep-00 11-Nov-99 502.05 0. Style Box Legend Value Large Cap Small & Midcap Diversified (FOR BALANCED SCHEMES) Blend Growth High Style Box Legend Medium Low High INTREST Medium RATE SENSITIVTY Low (FOR MIP AGGRESSIVE AND CONSERVATIVE SCHEMES) Performance The fund has given annualised returns of 11% since its inception in 2003. MS. Consistent Dividend Payouts Over 5 years. The fund varies its allocation dynamically between equity and debt based on the fund managers' view on equity and interest rates.10 115 580 523 NA 69 -5 128 5.000 cr.31 1183 34.78 2901 481 -1898 -2044 -1160 -335 554 775 -239 1087 436 447 2011 8. The average annualised dividend payout of the fund over this period is 8. Over the same period.Crore) Change 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 Month Absolute 3 Months Absolute 6 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Absolute Annualised Annualised Annualised Period HDFC Mutual Fund Reliance Mutual Fund ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund UTI Mutual Fund SBI Mutual Fund Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund IDFC Mutual Fund Tata Mutual Fund Sundaram Mutual Fund Deutsche Mutual Fund Religare Mutual Fund Fidelity Mutual Fund Axis Mutual Fund Canara Robeco Mutual Fund JM Financial Mutual Fund JPMorgan Mutual Fund LIC NOMURA Mutual Fund IDBI Mutual Fund HSBC Mutual Fund 88737 84300 69472 60406 57817 42108 37312 30565 30203 26864 21473 14775 13314 11818 8880 8631 7356 6915 6759 6223 6102 4897 91827 90661 75217 64217 62580 47731 34410 30084 32101 28908 22634 15110 12761 11042 9120 7545 6920 6468 4748 7075 4926 4952 -3090 -6360 -5745 -3811 -4763 -3. the fund has given dividends in 52 months.87 17 -24 3.02 -2.98 11.69 9.72 24.76 -0. Investment Strategy As per the scheme's classification.LTP (CRISIL Fund Rank 1) HDFC Monthly Income Plan Long Term Plan (LTP).49 CRISIL Mutual Fund Ranks as of December 2011 Point to Point Returns are as on February 29.91 11.36 Goldman Sachs Mutual Fund 4349 PRINCIPAL Mutual Fund Morgan Stanley Mutual Fund Pramerica Mutual Fund ING Mutual Fund Indiabulls Mutual Fund Daiwa Mutual Fund AIG Global Investment Group Mutual Fund Edelweiss Mutual Fund Union KBC Mutual Fund Sahara Mutual Fund Mirae Asset Mutual Fund Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund Escorts Mutual Fund Quantum Mutual Fund Bharti AXA Mutual Fund IIFL Mutual Fund Grand Total 3942 2086 2084 1559 1308 858 718 576 540 473 422 232 205 179 161 26 687639 -594 -13.Savings 5 Plan 1.YEARS MAKING MA RK S ET CTION BE TT FUN ER CRISIL Fund Rank 1 Schemes . indicating consistency in superior performance and disciplined portfolio management.61 13.40 6.53 0.22 4. is the largest fund among Monthly Income Plans (MIP).12 3. and has 20 years of experience in fund management and research.91 -7.731 in the benchmark index and Rs 1.30 6.LTP 1.64 24-May-04 398.the average 91-day T-Bill auction cut-off rate for two years Average AUM is 3-months average number as disclosed by AMFI for the period October. i.978 in the peer group. launched on December 26. it has consistently maintained its equity exposure above 20%.LTP has had an average equity exposure of 23% over the past three years.72 -8 -0.05 8. Shobhit Mehrotra (Debt Fund Manager) is a B-Tech.54 4.40 4. The fund is ranked CRISIL Fund Rank 1 (top 10 percentile of the peer set) over the past nine quarters. The higher debt component seeks to provide the necessary stability in returns for the fund.417 as on February 29.50 1. Deviation Sharpe (%) Ratio Scheme Name Style Box Fund focus HDFC Monthly Income Plan . with average assets under management (AUM) of Rs 7.41 Portfolio Analysis HDFC Monthly Income Plan .64 -5. 2003. Balanced HDFC Balanced Fund ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund 5.29 7876.43 1.75 12. MBA (USA) and has 18 years of experience in fixed income markets.72 5. indicating its consistency in terms of regular dividend payouts.34 7.07 -5.88 -1.82 2.57 16.07% .24 3.com. Most of the peers in the category have an AUM of less than Rs 1.51 50. -46 -16. please refer to www.000 in the fund in December 2003 (at inception). This is beneficial to investors looking for a small equity exposure but with stable returns on a monthly basis.38 11.62 4.4%.

prudhra@crisil. which is critical for economic growth. Deduction in respect of interest on deposits in savings accounts up to Rs 10. in its regular operations. please visit www. the fiscal deficit for 2012-13 is likely to overshoot to 5.5-7. industry associations. Mumbai – 400076.com Praveen Rudhra: +91 22 3342 8047. dmittal@crisil. We provide insights. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. This would reduce the total government debt at the end of 2012-13 to 45. and information management specialists.79 lakh cr. Impact While savings accounts offer low interest rates.9% of GDP in the Revised Estimates for 2011-12. The Budget has taken baby steps to attract new retail investors into the equity markets. 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Impact According to CRISIL Research. including industry experts. Our talent pool comprises economists. which is 5. Last updated: 31 March. and email id. adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4. The increase in the limit is expected to see an increasing appetite among retail investors for these bonds.1% of GDP. CRISIL is not liable for investment decisions which may be based on the views expressed in this Report.000 directly in equities and whose annual income is below Rs 10 lakh.5% of GDP. CRISIL Research estimates the 10-year government bond yield to soften from 8. Powai. address. enable long term funding for the infrastructure sector.14 lakh cr. obtain information of a confidential nature which is not available to CRISIL Research. For every Rs 100 that is saved. industries. mainly on account of subsidies. Contact Details: Deepak Mittal: +91 22 3342 8031. sector experts.mcgrawhill. This move will benefit both direct investors and mutual funds.8% by end-March 2013 as against the earlier expectation of 7. Impact The reduction of STT will lead to a reduction in the cost of all delivery-based transactions that are done through the stock exchanges.000 cr in 2012-13. and banking industries. The fiscal deficit for 2012-13 has been pegged at Rs 5. 5.500 primary sources. majority of which are bank deposits. STT is payable on all transactions done on the stock exchanges. We pioneered independent equity research in India. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks and leading corporations. However. company analysts. For further information. About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We use your contact information. pnanda@crisil. 2. Reduction in STT would reduce transaction cost for mutual funds Securities transaction tax (STT) has been reduced by 20% (from 0. CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy. 2011 About CRISIL Limited CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries.5% of GDP as compared to the Thirteenth Finance Commission's target of 50. Hiranandani Business Park.com Purvi Nanda: +91 22 3342 8036. including investors in exchange traded funds. the pace of rate cuts by the central bank may be slow. net market borrowings through dated government securities to finance this deficit is enhanced to Rs 4. Central Avenue. The introduction of the above deduction may see increased flows into these accounts. We are India's leading ratings agency. Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme would help increase equity penetration Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme is proposed to allow for income tax deduction of 50% to new retail investors who invest up to Rs 50. research. they are used largely for liquidity and transactional ease.com Web: www. post office or cooperative society under section 80TTA. The scheme will have a lock-in period of 3 years. thereby increasing the possibility of a higher-than-projected government borrowing programme. and higher expenditure. in parallel. Impact Equity penetration in India is very low. serving the mutual fund. Information has been obtained by CRISIL from sources which it considers reliable. and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. and does not have access to information obtained by CRISIL's Ratings Division. Accordingly.125% to 0. India Phone: + 91 22 3342 3000 Fax: + 91 22 3342 8088 Email: CRISILFundServices@crisil.crisil. The proposed Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme will help grow retail penetration in the equity markets. Tax-free infrastructure bonds may offer good investment opportunities for retail investors The limit for issuance of tax-free bonds for financing infrastructure projects has been doubled to Rs 60. The impact to the overall capital markets would be marginal since delivery-based transactions form a small component of overall transactions. capital markets and companies. The remainder is allocated across fixed income products. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. as these created an additonal avenue for tax savings. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. Inc. only about Rs 5 is invested in equity-oriented assets (including mutual funds).1%) on cash delivery transactions.3-7. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers/ users/ transmitters/ distributors of this Report.crisil. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. Impact The tax-free bonds issued in 2011-12 for financing infrastructure projects had received a very positive response from investors. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities.5% of GDP. This will also. and analysis on the Indian economy. to fulfill your request and service your account and to provide you with additional information from CRISIL and other parts of The McGraw-Hill Companies. has pushed the fiscal deficit to 5. 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