June  4,  2012     POLL  SHOWS  LAMONTAGNE  WITH  MODEST  LEAD  OVER  SMITH  IN     REPUBLICAN  PRIMARY  –  BETTENCOURT  SCANDAL

 HIGH  ON  VOTERS  MINDS       New  Hampshire  Journal  is  pleased  to  present  the  topline  results  of  a  522N  autodial  survey   of  randomly  selected,  likely  2012  New  Hampshire  Republican  primary  voters,  and   independent  voters,  that  are  likely  to  vote  in  the  2012  Republican  state  primary.    The   interviews  were  conducted  May  31-­‐June  2,  2012.    This  survey  has  a  margin  of  error  of  +/-­‐   4.28  at  the  95  percent  confidence  interval.    The  survey  results  are  weighted  based  upon   past  primary  voter  demographics.     Republican  Primary  Voters       89.5%   Undeclared  Primary  Voters       10.5%       ANALYSIS     Ovide  Lamontagne  has  a  wide  lead  over  Kevin  Smith,  37-­‐15,  though  given  Lamontagne’s   significant  advantage  in  name  identification  and  image  his  37%  on  the  ballot  illustrates   some  weakness  as  the  campaign  season  officially  opens  this  week  as  candidates  file  their   paperwork  at  the  Secretary  of  State’s  office.    Nearly  50%  of  all  state  primary  voters  are   undecided  in  the  Republican  primary  race  for  Governor  meaning  it  is  still  a  wide-­‐open  race.     Lamontagne  has  a  good  favorable  versus  unfavorable  image,  41-­‐16,  and  leads  in  most   regions  and  demographics  showing  tremendous  strength  with  conservatives,  particularly   among  three  segments  of  voters:  pro-­‐life  voters,  those  opposed  to  same  sex  marriage,  and   fiscal  conservatives.    Lamontagne  is  clearly  benefitting  from  his  three  previous  campaigns   for  office,  most  recently  as  a  candidate  for  US  Senate  in  2010.       Smith  is  still  a  virtual  unknown  with  only  20%  hard  name  identification.    Thus,  his  15%  on   the  ballot  says  more  about  some  possible  displeasure  with  Lamontagne  than  it  does   positively  for  Smith.    With  low  name  identification  and  only  a  1-­‐1  image  ratio,  favorable   versus  unfavorable,  Smith  has  tremendous  work  to  do  in  three  months  time  if  he  is  going  to   knock  off  Lamontagne.     Additionally,  while  jobs  and  the  economy  is  the  main  concern  among  voters  in  other  states   across  the  country,  Republican  primary  voters  care  about  taxes  and  spending  (33%)  nearly   as  much  as  they  care  about  jobs  (36%).  

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        Finally,  with  the  recent  resignation  of  former  Republican  House  Majority  Leader  DJ   Bettencourt,  a  full  74%  of  Republican  primary  voters  have  seen,  read  or  heard  about  the   State  House  scandal.    However,  58%  of  voters  do  not  believe  it  will  have  an  impact  in  the   fall  elections.           FULL  TOPLINE  SURVEY  RESULTS     T1.  Do  you  have  a  favorable  or  unfavorable  opinion  of  Kevin  Smith?     Favorable     11%   Unfavorable        9%   No  Opinion     23%     Name  ID     43%   Hard  Name  ID   20%   Never  Heard  Of   57%       T2.  Do  you  have  a  favorable  or  unfavorable  opinion  of  Ovide  Lamontagne?     Favorable     41%   Unfavorable     16%   No  Opinion     23%     Name  ID     80%   Hard  Name  ID   57%   Never  Heard  Of   20%       T3.  If  the  Republican  Primary  election  for  Governor  were  being  held  today  for  whom  would   you  vote,  Ovide  Lamontagne  or  Kevin  Smith?     Ovide  Lamontagne   37%   Kevin  Smith     15%   Undecided     48%      

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      T4.    Generally  speaking,  do  you  consider  yourself  conservative,  moderate,  or  liberal  on   most  issues?     Conservative     56%   Moderate     33%   Liberal     11%       T5.    Do  you  favor  or  oppose  allowing  same  sex  marriage  in  New  Hampshire?     Favor       30%   Oppose     57%   Unsure     13%       T6.    Which  one  of  the  following  issues  is  MOST  important  to  you  in  deciding  how  to  vote  for   Governor?     Education         11%   Taxes  and  spending       33%   Gas  and  energy  prices        5%   Health  care  reform  and  cost        7%   The  economy  and  jobs     36%   Moral  values            8%       T7.    On  the  issue  of  abortion,  do  you  consider  yourself  pro-­‐life  or  pro-­‐choice?     Pro-­‐life     49%   Pro-­‐choice     43%   Don’t  know        8%       T8.    Have  you  seen,  read  or  heard  anything  about  the  scandal  involving  the  New  Hampshire   House  Republican  Majority  Leader  DJ  Bettencourt?     Yes       74%   No       26%    

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      T9.    Do  you  believe  that  a  personal  scandal  involving  one  Republican  leader  in  the  State   House  will  harm  the  Republican  Party’s  chances  of  winning  elections  this  fall?     Yes       25%   No       58%   Don’t  know     17%         ###      

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