Estimation Of Population Parameters

i) Population - A collection of all possible items
ii) Sample - A subset of population
Population parameters : µ (population mean), σ
2
(population

variance)
Sample statistics :
x
(sample mean), s
2

(sample variance)
Usually, the population parameters are not known. Therefore to estimate
the population parameters, we select samples from the population and
calculate the sample statistics. A sample statistic used to estimate the
population parameter is called an estimator and is denoted by capital letters
(formulae). The numerical value taken by the estimator in a particular
instance is called an estimate and is denoted by small letters. There are
many estimators which could be formed, but the best estimator is the one
which is unbiased and has the smallest variance.
Let θ be the unknown population parameter and T be the estimator of θ
taken from a sample of size n. The statistic T is said to be an unbiased
estimator of θ if and only if E(T) = θ . If E(T) ≠ θ, then T is called the biased
estimator of θ .

The unbiased estimator for µ is denoted by
x
(or
µˆ
)
and the unbiased
estimator for σ
2
is denoted by

2
ˆ
σ
.
Parameter Unbiased Estimator

µ
x
=
µˆ
=
n
x

x =
µˆ
= constant a is c ;
) (
c
n
c x
+



σ
2
2
ˆ
σ

=



1 n
) x x (
2

2
ˆ
σ


=
) x n x (
1 n
1
2 2



2
ˆ
σ
=
)
) (
(
1
1
2
2
n
x
x
n




2
ˆ
σ
=
]
]
]
]


− −



2
2
)] ( [
) (
1
1
n
c x
c x
n
c is a constant
2
ˆ
σ


=
variance sample is s
1 n
ns
2
2
;

1. Find the unbiased estimate of the population mean and of the population
variance from which each of the following sample is drawn.
Use x =
µˆ
=
n
x

;
2
ˆ
σ


=
) x n x (
1 n
1
2 2


∑ or
2
ˆ
σ
=
)
) (
(
1
1
2
2
n
x
x
n




a) 46, 48, 51, 50, 45, 53, 50, 48
b) 35, 42, 38, 55, 70, 69
c) 1.684, 1.691, 1.687, 1.688, 1.689, 1.688, 1.690, 1.693, 1.685

2.

x
= 120,

2
x
= 2120, n = 8
Use x =
µˆ
=
n
x

;
2
ˆ
σ
=
)
) (
(
1
1
2
2
n
x
x
n




3. ∑x = 120, ∑(x – x)
2
= 302, n = 8 ;
Use x =
µˆ
=
n
x

;
2
ˆ
σ

=



1 n
) x x (
2


4. ∑(x – 25) = 27.2, ∑(x – 25)
2
= 85.1, n = 80
x =
µˆ
= ; 25
) 25 (
+


n
x
;
2
ˆ
σ
=
]
]
]
]


− −



2
2
)] 25 ( [
) 25 (
1
1
n
x
x
n


For Q5 – Q7 Use x =
µˆ
=


f
fx
;
2
ˆ
σ


=
)
) (
(
1
2
2





f
fx
fx
f
5.
Interval
1 - 10 11 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 50 51 – 60 61 - 70 71 - 80
Frequency
2 4 9 18 21 23 22 1
∑fx
2
= 243965 ∑fx = 4690 ∑f = 100

6.
Interval 0 - 4 - 8 - 12 - 16 - 20 -
Frequency 2 4 9 18 21 23
∑fx
2
= 22516 ∑fx = 1254 ∑f = 77

7.
x 20 21 22 23 24 25
f 4 14 17 26 20 9
∑fx
2
= 46901 ∑fx = 2051 ∑f = 90
Answer
1. a)
x
=µˆ
= 48.875,
2
ˆ σ
= 6.982
b)
x
=µˆ
= 51.5,
2
ˆ σ
= 241.1
c)
x
=µˆ
= 1.69,
2
ˆ σ
= 0.000008
2.
x
=µˆ
=15,
2
ˆ σ
= 45.71
3.
x
=µˆ
=15,
2
ˆ σ
= 43.14
4.
x
=µˆ
= 25.34,
2
ˆ σ
= 0.9602
5.
x
=µˆ
= 46.9,
2
ˆ σ
= 242.46
6.
x
=µˆ
= 16.3,
2
ˆ σ
= 27.5
7.
x
=µˆ
= 22.79,
2
ˆ σ
= 1.81
Confidence Intervals
Using a measurement from a sample, we are never able to say exactly what
a population proportion or mean is; rather we always say we have a certain
confidence that the population proportion or mean lies in a particular
interval. The particular interval is centered around a sample proportion or
mean and can be expressed as the sample estimate t an associated margin
of error.
The Meaning of a Confidence Interval
If 'a' and 'b' are two quantities obtained using the observations in a random
sample and θ is an unknown population parameter such that P( a ≤ θ ≤ b) =
0.95, then the interval [a,b] is said to be a 95% confidence interval for θ .
The numbers 'a' and 'b' are called the 95% confidence limits for θ.
If we say that the mean mass of bags of sugar is 3 kg, we are making a point
estimate. If we say that the mean mass of bags of sugar is between 2 kg
and 4 kg. We are making an interval estimate.
Confidence Interval is an interval estimate of an unknown parameter which
includes a given probability of including the parameter estimated. If we
construct a 95% confidence interval to estimate the population mean, µ,
then 0.95 (95%) is the probability that the interval includes µ. For
example: The 95% confidence interval for the mean mass of bags of sugar is
2 ≤ µ ≤ 3. It means that, if we take 100 samples from a population each of
size n, and construct 100 95% confidence interval to estimate µ, then we
will find that out of 100 confidence intervals constructed, 95 of the
intervals includes the value of µ.
Confidence Interval For The Population Mean, µ
I) When the population variance or standard deviation is known.
II) When the population variance or standard deviation is unknown and
sample size is large ( n ≥ 30 ).
*Always assume that the population is normally distributed and samples
are randomly chosen.
In general the formula for constructing the confidence interval for the
population mean, µ, when σ
2
or

σ is known is :

,
`

.
|
+ < <

,
`

.
|

n
z x
n
z x
σ
µ
σ
α α
2 2

The formula for constructing the confidence interval for the population
mean,µ, when σ
2
or

σ is unknown and the sample size (n) is large is :

,
`

.
|
+ < <
,
`

.
|

n
z x
n
z x
σ
µ
σ
α α
ˆ ˆ
2 2

A bottling machine is operating with a standard deviation of 0.12 ounce.
Suppose that in a random sample of 36 bottles the machine inserted an
average of 16.1 ounces into each bottle, calculate a 95% confidence
interval for the population mean
For a 95% confidence interval, the z-value is 1.96 (the sample mean is
within 1.96 standard deviations of the population mean). Equivalently
we are 95% certain that the population mean is within 1.96 standard
deviations of any sample mean. In this case, 16.1 t 1.96(0.12/√36) =
16.1 t 0.0392, and we are 95% sure that the mean number of ounces in
all bottles is between 16.0608 and 16.1392. This is called a 95%
confidence interval estimate.
1. A piece of string is taken at random from each of the 100 balls of string
and the breaking stress, x, is measured. It is known that the variance is
2 and that the mean of the breaking stress measured from the 100 balls
is 5.3. Find a symmetric 90% and 95% confidence interval for the mean
breaking stress of the string.
2. The marks of 12 failures in an exam are recorded as 9. 5, 9. 5,11. 2, 10.
6, 9. 9, 11. 1, 10. 9, 9. 8, 10. 1, 10. 2, 10. 9, 11. 0. Assuming that this
sample came from a normal population with variance 4, calculate a 95%
confidence interval for the mean marks of all the students taking the
exam.
3. The petrol consumption of a new model of car is being tested. In one
trial, 50 cars chosen at random were driven under identical conditions,
and the distances, x miles, that were covered on precisely 1 gallon of
petrol were recorded. The results gave the following totals: Σx = 2685,
Σx
2

= 144346. Calculate a 99% confidence interval for the mean petrol
consumption, in miles per gallon, of cars of this type.
4. In order to estimate the mean life, µ hours, of a certain type of electrical
component which a manufacturer is producing in large quantities, a
random sample of 50 such components is tested. The life time, x hours,
of each component is recorded, and it is found that Σx = 5. 684 x 10
4
,
Σx
2
= 6. 475 x 10
7
. Calculate a 99% confidence interval for µ.
5. There are many complaints from passengers about the late running of
trains in Ruritania. The Railway Passenger’s Association conducts a
study of a random sample of 200 trains and notes the time, t, in
seconds, by which each train in the sample is late (no trains are early).
The results are summarized by Σ(t – 300) = 2012, Σ(t – 300)
2

= 525 262.
Find a symmetric 95% confidence interval for the mean time by which a
train is late.
6. A random sample of 100 packets of a breakfast cereal were examined
and the mass, m grams, of the contents recorded. The results revealed
that Σm = 3010 and Σm
2

= 91280. Obtain an unbiased estimate of the
population variance and hence calculate a 95% confidence interval for
the mean mass of the contents of all packets of this type.

Assuming that the unbiased estimate obtained above is equal to the
population variance, find the number of packets that need to be sampled
to be 98% confident that the sample mean will be within 0.5 g of the true
mean.
7. At a certain plant, batteries are being produced with a life expectancy
that has a variance of 5.76 months
2
. Suppose the mean life expectancy
in an SRS of 64 batteries is 12.35 months
a) Find a 90% confidence interval estimate of life expectancy for all the
batteries produced at this plant.
b) What would the 90% confidence interval estimate be if the sample
mean of 12.35 had come from a sample of 100 batteries?
c) What conclusion can you draw from a) and b)?
8. Ball bearings are manufactured by a process that results in a standard
deviation in diameter of 0.025 inch. What sample size should be chosen
if we wish to be 99% sure of knowing the diameter to be within t 0.01
inch?
9. A government investigator plans to test for the mean quantity of a
particular pollutant that a manufacturer is dumping into a river each
day. She needs an estimate that it is within 50 grams at the 95%
confidence level. If previous measurements indicate that the variance is
approximately 21, 800 grams
2
, how many days should she include in the
sample?
10.The number of accidents per day at a large factory is noted for each of 64
days resulting in a mean,
x
= 3.58 and standard deviation = 1.52. With
what degree of confidence can we assert that the mean number of
accidents per day at the factory is between 3.20 and 3.96?
(Caution: *Check if sample standard deviation = s = 1.52 is used or
unbiased estimate,
347 . 2 ˆ
2
· σ
is used).
11.A new drug results in lowering the heart rate by varying amounts with a
standard deviation of 2.49 beats per minute. Find a 95% confidence
interval estimate for the mean lowering of the heart rate in all patients if
a 50-person Simple Random Sampling averages a drop of 5.32 beats per
minute. With what certainty can we assert that the new drug lowers the
heart rate by a mean of 5.32 t 0.75 beats per minute?
Textbook: Exercise 9e page 460 - 461
Answer
1. 90%: (5.07, 5.53) or 5.07 < µ < 5.53
95%: (5.02, 5.58) or 5.02 < µ < 5.58
2.
x
=10.39; (9.26, 11.5) or 9.26 < µ < 11.5
3.
x
=53.7,
2
ˆ σ
= 3.2959 ; (53.1, 54.4) or 53.1 < µ < 54.4
4. (1118 , 1156) or 1118 < µ < 1156
5.
t
=310.06,
2
ˆ σ
= 2537.795; (303, 317) or 303 < µ < 317
6.
2
ˆ σ = 6.859; 29.6 < µ < 30.6 or (29.59, 30.61); n = 149
7. a) 12.35 t 0.4935 = (11.9, 12.8) or 11.9 < µ < 12.8
b) 12.35 t 0.3948 = (12.0, 12.7) or 12.0 < µ < 12.7
c) smaller width as sample size increases.
8. width = 0.02; 42 ball bearings
9. width = 100; 34 days
10. 95.26% = 95.3% (Caution: *Check if sample std dev = s = 1.52 is
used or unbiased estimate,
347 . 2 ˆ
2
· σ
is used).
11. 5.32 t 0.75 = (4.57, 6.07) or 4.57 < µ < 6.07; 96.7%
Confidence Interval For The Population Proportion, p
In general the formula for constructing the confidence interval for the
population proportion, p, when n is large is:
n
q p
z p p
n
q p
z p
s s
s
s s
s
2 2
α α
+ < < −
If 64% of a random sample of 550 people leaving a shopping mall caim to
have spent over $25, determine a 99% confidence interval estimate for the
proportion of shopping mall customers who spend over $25.
p
s
= 0.64. The standard deviation of the set of sample proportions is
550
36 0 x 64 0
n
q p
s s
s
p
. .
σ · · = 0.0205. For a 99% confidence interval, the z-
value is 2.576 (the sample proportion is within 2.576 standard deviation of
the population proportion). Thus the 99% confidence interval estimate of
the population proportion is 0.64 t 2.576(0.0205) = 0.64 t 0.053. We say
the margin of error is t 0.053. We are 99% certain that the proportion of
shoppers spending over $25 is between 0.587 and 0.693.
1. In a survey concerning ownership of television sets in a certain city, 985
randomly households were investigated. It was found that there was no
television set in 77 households, one set in 621 households, and two or
more sets in 287 households. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the
proportion of households in the city with at least one television set.
2. In an election in which there were a large number of voters, a sample of
2156 voters at certain polling stations were interviewed just after they
had voted, and 1734 of them said they had voted for candidate Y. The
overall proportion of voters who voted for candidate Y is p. Assuming that
a symmetrical 99.9% confidence interval for p can be based on these
figures, show that the interval obtained is 0.78 < p < 0.83, approximately.
3. In a survey into things that people most commonly fear, 43 people out of
a random sample of 200 people said they were afraid of flying.
a) Find a 90% confidence interval for the proportion of the population
who are afraid of flying.
b) In order to obtain a more accurate estimate of the proportion of the
population who are afraid of flying, it is proposed to take a larger
random sample. Estimate the sample size that will be needed if it is
intended that the resulting 90% confidence interval for this proportion
should have a width of 0.05.
4. A telephone survey of 1000 football fans was done to vote the European
Footballer of the year. If 832 supported Zinedine Zidane, with what
confidence can it be asserted that 83.2% t 3% of the football fans
supported him? 98.9%
5. Three opinion polls, which concerned the proportion of voters supporting
a certain political party, were carried out. For the first poll, 1000
randomly chosen people were interviewed and 356 of them said they
intended to support the party. Calculate an approximate 95%
confidence interval for the population proportion supporting the party.
The result of the second poll was reported in the newspaper. The report
said that support for the party was “between 35% and 39%, based on a
random sample of 1577 people”. Calculate the level of confidence
associated with these figures.
Textbook: Exercise 9g page 471 - 472
Miscellaneous Exercise 9h page 478 - 480
Mixed Test 9A page 481
Mixed Test 9B page 482
Answer
1. (0.922 t 0.017) = (0.905, 0.939) or 0.905 < p < 0.939
3. a) (0.167, 0.263)
b) sample size = 730 if width = 0.05
sample size = 731 if width = 0.0499
4. 98.9%
5. (0.326, 0.386); 90%