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Generation Management with Renewable Energy

Indranil BANDYO AREVA T&D INDIA LTD, A-7, Sector-65, Noida-201301 Abstract In terms of growth in the demand and consumption of energy, India is growing exponentially. With the demand of clean and green energy, it is necessary to harness the huge potential from the renewable energy sector. With the GOI policy and guidelines, around nine percent of the total installed capacity comes from the renewable sources. With the increased renewable generation, they have to be connected to the grid and monitored to maintain the frequency and participate in the generation management system. Given the uncertainty and variability in the output of generator, it is a major challenge to maintain the grid with this fluctuation. Under this perspective, this paper emphasizes the strategy to meet the challenges in integrating the power from renewable energy sources. Quantum of wind energy is correlated with the wind velocity and direction, smart forecast engine is adopted to reduce the uncertainty. Index Terms Renewable Energy, Wind Power, Wind Forecast, Predictive Analysis & Proactive decision. I. INTRODUCTION demand is India is Twitnessing an for power growth. The exponential

availability of energy is considered as one of the catalyst for economic growth. The envisaged growth can not be achieved without meeting the energy requirement in a sustainable manner. The huge difference in the per capita consumption of electricity in India (around 620 kWH /annum) [1] compared to the world average (26% of the world average) [2], signifies a tremendous growth potential in the field of installed capacity of electricity generation. With average 8% [1] load growth, more than 13% [1] shortage during the peak hours, demands around 92,000 MW capacity additions in the next 10 years [1]. Growing concerns about global warming, demand for clean energy, climate change policies worldwide are the major drivers of global renewable energy development. The Government of India is encouraging domestic and foreign investors to establish renewable energy based power generation projects by providing exemptions /reductions in the tax, incentives and a definite power purchase agreement [1]. II. GROWTH OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN INDIA India is among the top 5 countries in the world with regard to installed power generation capacity from renewable energy sources [1]. Cumulative achievements of power from renewable sources till December, 2009 is 15,690 MW [1] (which is around 9% [1] of the total installed

capacity). Wind energy has posted the highest growth (10,925 MW) [1]. In order to promote renewable energy, Electricity Regulatory Commission has mandated renewable purchase obligations. Discoms are required to source up to 10% [1] of their power from RE sources. Different favorable government policies, generation-based incentives (GBI), tax holidays will accelerate the growth and investment in the renewable energy sector. III. POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN INDIA The major renewable energy sources in India are Wind, Hydro, Biomass and Solar. Having tremendous potential to harness, India is considered one of the ideal investment destinations for renewable generation. India has an estimated medium term renewable energy potential more than 85,000 MW [1],[2],[3] from commercially exploitable sources. Of them wind power potential holds the major share around 45,000 MW [1],[2],[3], followed by energy from biomass with a potential around 16,000 MW [2],[3]. In addition, the potential to generate power from solar energy is 50,000 MW [2]. Even at the conservative assessment, total estimated potential of 1,72,000 MW (without considering the solar energy sector), the investment potential in the country is Rs.8,600 billion [1]. The Greenpeace International, European Renewable Energy (EREC) in its report released in March, 2009 has projected that by 2050; about 69% of the electricity produced in India will come from renewable energy sources [1].

IV. MONITORING OF RENEWABLE GENERATION Currently very few of the renewable generators are connected to the grid and are monitored. Generation from renewable sources will increase day by day. And it is the need of hour to connect them with the grid to regulate frequency. This will not only reduce the burden of the conventional energy sources, especially the fossil fuel, but also improve the overall generation cost, and reduce the overall carbon foot print. V. CHALLENGES IN INTEGRATION OF RENEWABLE GENERATION Prior to integrating renewable energy, three aspects Physical, Operational, and Informational integration have to be looked into. Outputs from these generators are mostly variable and uncertain. Variability: The output of generator changes according to the availability of the primary fuel (wind, sunlight) resulting in increased fluctuations in the plant output on all time scale. Uncertainty: The ability to forecast the magnitude and phase (i.e. timing) of generator output is less predictable than for conventional generation. Wind or Solar power is not always there when it is needed most. The figure below explains its un-correlated behaviour.

Fig.1. Uncorrelated Wind Power & System Demand.

This uncertainty in the availability of the power makes the generator an unsuitable candidate and for the grid operator it will be a very challenging task to sustain the grid. VI. PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY OF INTEGRATION Since the quantum of available energy is directly correlated with the wind forecast (wind velocity and direction), adoption of a smart forecast engine can reduce the uncertainty. The figure below explains the relation. Fig.3. Accumulated propagation of gusts through a wind farm in specific time span. A. Wind Power Forecast for each Generator The energy output from a generator i in a specific time span can be expressed as:



= Ei


Fig.2. Quantum of wind forecast is correlated with the quantum of predicted power. Several forecasting methods can be adopted, they are: Physical Method Statistical & Fuzzy Neural Network method. Further the forecast can be for Short Term (several future hours) Medium Term (upto couple of days). Now propagation of gust of wind in different directions is accumulated to find out the total wind energy available in a specific period of time. The figure below explains the calculation method.

Where, pti = Wind Power available at time t for generator i. T = Total span of study Ei = Total quantum of renewable energy available in the total span for generator i. Average power which can be fed to the grid by generator i for the same time span can be expressed as: Ei (2 ) Ai = mega watt. T Where, Ai = Average Power from generator i for the above time span. Calculation of Ai is necessary to have an idea of the base MW, the generator may cater when connected to the grid. But in actual condition, more or less than Ai mega watt of power will be available for injection. If the wind farm contains very few generators, the diversity in the output will be high. However wind farm containing

large number of generator, it will be possible to compensate the peak created by one generator by the valley created by another generator output.
B. Instantaneous Wind Power Forecast for one Wind Farm The total power output from the wind Farm at any point of time can be expressed as: (3) pti = Wt

Where, pti = Wind Power available at time t for generator i Wt = Wind Power available at time t from the wind farm. If Wt does not have much variation, the farm would be ideal to integrate with grid.
C. Wind Power Forecast for one wind Farm The total energy output from the wind Farm in a specific time span can be expressed as:

tolerance, can trigger a refined forecast. Now for a smooth and sustainable operation of the grid, the peaks in the power available curve need to be clipped and the valleys are to be filled as long as the generators are connected to the grid. One of the most popular ways to peak clipping or valley filling is to store the energy. So during the heavy wind, power will be stored, and in the low wind period the stored energy can be consumed. Depending on the feasibility, location, the energy can be stored in the pump storage plant or in a series of batteries. Quantum of storage capacity is guided by average power from the wind farm ( Aw ). If the study results are consistent, Aw is considered as the base MW for the wind farm. The figure below explains the maximum storage capacity required for a wind farm.




(4 )

Where, W = Total quantum of renewable energy available in the total span from the wind farm. Similarly average power from the wind farm ( Aw ) for the same time span can be expressed as: W (5) Aw = mega watt. T With the help of historical forecast information and statistical analysis, minimum power output from the wind farm are estimated. Residual and variance of the actual condition are computed against the estimated wind power forecast. Residual more than the user defined

Fig.4. Capacity determination of the storage to sustain different wind condition during operation. This is how the physical and the operational challenges are addressed. These actions are reactive actions followed by the occurrence of the event. Given the complexity of ever-changing load and weather conditions, a predictive analysis followed by a proactive action will help to stabilize the grid in smarter way [4]. The figure below explains the predictive analysis and there by situational awareness [4].

Conventional Energy Sources, Government of India, Table 1. [4] Areva T & D solution e-terra renewableplan for renewable energy integration. Indranil Bandyo is graduated in Power Plant Engineering from Jadavpur University. Currently employed in AREVA T&D India Limited heading a team for EMS / DMS application to deliver SCADA/ EMS projects. He has worked in different SCADA/EMS projects in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Indonesia, Senegal, Ethiopia, Brazil, European Community, and Qatar. The author can be contacted at e-mail:

Fig.5. Predictive analysis and Proactive action for Smart operation. VII. CONCLUSION Renewable energy is definitely the smart source of energy. Managing it prudently contributes to the Smart GRID. ACKNOWLEDGMENT Author expresses his gratitude to Dr. Lawrence Jones, Director, Strategy & Special projects, Mr. Dhananjay Ketkar, Regional Managing Director, Mr. Sudesh Nehru, General Manager, for inspiration in writing this paper. REFERENCES [1] Indias Renewable Energy Sector Potential and Investment Opportunities Delhi International Renewable Energy Conference, 2010, 27-29 October 2010. [Online].' s-RE-Sector-Potential-and-Investmentopportunites-SSM.pdf, Page 2, 4, 7, 914. [2] Eleventh Five Year Plan (20072012) Agriculture, Rural Development, Industry, Services and Physical Infrastructure, Volume III, Planning Commission Government of India, Oxford University Press, New Delhi, Chapter 10, Energy 10.2, Table 10.27. [3] Booklet no. 9 'Solar Energy Centre', published by Ministry of Non-