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WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT HYDROLOGY AND HYDROGEOLOGY POSTGRADUATE STUDIES PROGRAMME 2003-2004 http://www.ihw.

ethz.ch/hydrologie http://dgrwww.epfl.ch/HYDRAM/enseignement/postgrade/

STOCHASTIC MODELLING, HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING AND FLOOD RISK 8 - 19 March 2004
26 - 30 April 2004 (for regular students only) Institute of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Hönggerberg, Zürich, Switzerland

8 MARCH (MONDAY)
INTRODUCTORY LECTURE CONTENTS • Course introduction • Presenting topics of stochastic modelling, hydrological forecasting and flood risk 9:50 - 10:20 STOCHASTIC MODELS IN HYDROLOGY CONTENTS • Stochastic methods in hydrology, introduction • The use of stochastic models for simulation and forecasting of hydrological processes • Dependent and independent variables • Autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) processes • Examples and applications 10:45 - 17:00 TIME: 6×45 MIN TIME: 30 MIN PROF. PAOLO BURLANDO Inst. of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zürich Switzerland paolo.burlando@ethz.ch PROF. JOSE D. SALAS Dept. of Civil Engineering Colorado State University USA

salas@engr.colostate.edu

9 MARCH (TUESDAY)
STOCHASTIC MODELS IN HYDROLOGY (CONTINUATION) CONTENTS • Single site and multisite models • Models of long term persistence • Examples and applications • Basic concepts of artificial neural networks • Examples and applications 9:00 - 15:15 LONG AND MID TERM FORECASTING CONTENTS • Management requirements for forecasting in hydrology • Purposes of forecasting, classification of forecasts • Stochastic models for long and mid term forecasting • SAMSF software application examples 15:30 - 17:00 TIME: 2×45 MIN 1/6 TIME: 6×45 MIN PROF. JOSE D. SALAS PROF. JOSE D. SALAS

10 MARCH (WEDNESDAY)
STOCHASTIC MODELS IN HYDROLOGY: POINT PROCESS MODELS OF RAINFALL CONTENTS • Basic concepts of temporal rainfall modelling • Cluster-based models (calibration, verification) • Examples and applications 9:00 - 11:30 LONG MEMORY STOCHASTIC MODELS CONTENTS • Long memory in hydrological series: the Hurst effect • Long memory models 11:30 - 12:15 TIME: 1×45 MIN TIME: 3×45 MIN PROF. PAOLO BURLANDO Inst. of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zürich Switzerland paolo.burlando@ethz.ch DR. ANTONIO CANCELLIERE Inst. of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Water Resources Management University of Catania Italy acance@iiiga.ing.unict.it DR. ANTONIO CANCELLIERE

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISATION AND STOCHASTIC MODELLING OF DROUGHTS CONTENTS • Basic concepts (drought definition, indeces) • Return period of droughts and regional droughts • Stochastic modelling of droughts • Examples and applications 13:45 - 17:00 TIME: 4×45 MIN

11 MARCH (THURSDAY)
FLOOD FORECASTING: AN INTRODUCTION CONTENTS • The structure of a flood forecasting system • Real time monitoring and predicition of rainfall and runoff • Prerequisites of a flood warning system 9:00 - 9:45 TIME: 1×45 MIN PROF. PAOLO BURLANDO Institute of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zürich Switzerland paolo.burlando@ethz.ch PROF. PAOLO BURLANDO

STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR QUANTITATIVE RAINFALL FORECASTING CONTENTS • State-of-the-art temporal models for rainfall • Stochastic models for real time rainfall based on autoregressive schemes • Use of radar data in rainfall modelling 9:45 - 11:30 TIME: 2×45 MIN

RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR FLOOD FORECASTING CONTENTS • The (historical) development of rainfall-runoff models for forecasting • The use of rainfall-runoff models in flood forecasting • Examples and applications 11:30 - 17:00 TIME: 5×45 MIN

PROF. EZIO TODINI Dept. of Earth Sciences and Environmental Geology University of Bologna Italy todini@tin.it

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12 MARCH (FRIDAY)
COUPLING OF RAINFALL FORECASTING MODELS AND RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR FLOOD FORECASTING CONTENTS • Concepts of coupling rainfall forecasting models and rainfall-runoff models in flood forecasting • The definition of a real time flood forecasting problem (scale, advance time, accuracy, benefits, treatment of uncertainty) • The use of real-time forecasting models (reliability) 9:00 - 10:30 TIME: 2×45 MIN PROF. EZIO TODINI Dept. of Earth Sciences and Environmental Geology University of Bologna Italy

todini@tin.it PROF. EZIO TODINI

CASE STUDY ILLUSTRATION: FORECASTING IN MESOSCALE CATCHMENTS CONTENTS • Problems of operational real time flood forecasting systems • Reduction of uncertainty 10:45 - 12:15 DISCUSSION (OPTIONAL) CONTENTS • Discussion about problems related to flood forecasting 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 2×45 MIN TIME: 2×45 MIN

PROF. EZIO TODINI

15 MARCH (MONDAY)
FLOOD FORECASTING IN LARGE RIVERS CONTENTS • Hydrodynamic flow simulation in large river systems • Assumptions, simplifications, models • Examples and applications (EFFS, Nile River) 9:00 - 11:30 TIME: 3×45 MIN DR. JAAP KWADIJK Delft Hydraulics Netherlands

jaap.kwadijk@wldelft.nl DR. JAAP KWADIJK

REAL-TIME PREDICTION OF FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION CONTENTS • Models for real-time prediction of floodplain inundation • Examples and applications 11:30 - 12:15 STRUCTURE OF A WARNING SYSTEM CONTENTS • Elements of a flood warning system • Knowledge transfer to a flood warning system • Prediction and uncertainty in rainfall 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 2×45 MIN TIME: 1×45 MIN

PROF. FRANCO SICCARDI Dept. of Environmental Engineering University of Genoa Italy franco@diam.unige.it

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STRUCTURE OF A CIVIL PROTECTION PLAN CONTENTS • What is a civil protection system? • Sources of data, data management • Example of the Italian civil protection system 15:30 - 17:00 TIME: 2×45 MIN

PROF. FRANCO SICCARDI

16 MARCH (TUESDAY)
CASE STUDY ILLUSTRATION: 1994 AND 2000 PIEDMONT FLOODS CONTENTS • Case study examples in the Po River Basin 9:00 - 10:30 FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKING CONTENTS • Decision making approaches • Why models are not sufficient? • The need for Decision Support Systems 10:45 - 12:15 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS) CONTENTS • Decision support system architecture • A case study of Lake Verbano 13:45 - 17:00 TIME: 4×45 MIN TIME: 2×45 MIN TIME: 2×45 MIN PROF. RODOLFO SONCINI-SESSA Dept. of Electronics and Information Politecnico di Milano Italy soncini@elet.polimi.it PROF. RODOLFO SONCINI-SESSA PROF. FRANCO SICCARDI

17 MARCH (WEDNESDAY)
INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK ESTIMATION CONTENTS • Introduction: from sustainable development to risk management • Risk management: controlling the residual risk • Hydrological inputs for dike and reservoir design • Risk-based design and handling of uncertainty 9:00 - 12:15 TIME: 4×45 MIN PROF. ERICH PLATE Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management University of Karlsruhe Germany

erich.plate@bau-verm.uni-karslruhe.de DIPL.ING. ANDREA POZZI Niederer and Pozzi AG Uznach Switzerland pozzi@nipo.ch

FLOODPLAIN PLANNING AND FLOOD PROTECTION CONTENTS • Assessment of failure points in floodplain planning • Protection targets • Example of floodplain planning and development 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 2×45 MIN

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OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT SESSION

DR. PETER MOLNAR Institute of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zürich Switzerland molnar@ihw.baug.ethz.ch

CONTENTS • Discussion of the stochastic modelling assignment

15:45 - 17:00

TIME: 2×45 MIN

18 MARCH (THURSDAY)
FLOOD PROTECTION AND MITIGATION, STRUCTURAL DEFENSE CONTENTS • Flood protection: hazard maps • Flood protection: differentiated protection targets • Structural measures: basic considerations • Structural measures: examples 9:00 - 12:15 TIME: 4×45 MIN PROF. HANS-ERWIN MINOR VAW ETH Zürich Switzerland

minor@vaw.baug.ethz.ch DR. HANSPETER STAFFLER Water Authority, Hydraulic Structures Bolzano Italy hanspeter.staffler@provinz.bz.it DR. HANSPETER STAFFLER

BASIN SLOPE PROTECTION WITH BIOENGINEERING CONTENTS • Slope protection: theory and concepts • Bioengineering methods, examples • to be completed 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 2×45 MIN

FLOOD PROTECTION: RIVER TRAINING WITH BIONEGINEERING CONTENTS • History of soil bioengineering and river training • Materials, design, samples of constructions • Some newer concepts and constructions • to be completed 15:30 - 17:00 TIME: 2×45 MIN

19 MARCH (FRIDAY)
FLOOD VULNERABILITY AND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTENTS • Quantification of flood impact and hazard • Methods to influence vulnerability of human lives, infrastructure, industry and commerce, residential areas and agriculture • Methods of calculation 9:00 - 10:30 TIME: 2×45 MIN DR. ARMIN PETRASCHECK Federal Office for Water and Geology Biel Switzerland

armin.petrascheck@bwg.admin.ch DIPL.ING. ANDREAS GÖTZ Federal Office for Water and Geology Biel Switzerland

FLOOD PROTECTION: GUIDELINES FROM PUBLIC AUTHORITIES CONTENTS • Technical guidelines and administrative regulation for flood protection • Swiss Federal Law on flood protection 1993 and international guidelines • National Platform for Natural Hazards (PLANAT) 10:45 - 11:30 TIME: 1×45 MIN

andreas.goetz@bwg.admin.ch

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FLOODS - AN INSURABLE RISK CONTENTS • Trends in natural catastrophe losses • Historical and recent flood losses • Principles of insurability • Advances in flood risk assessment in the (re)insurance sector • The private-public partnership 11:30 - 12:15 TIME: 1×45 MIN

JENS MEHLHORN Flood Group Swiss Reinsurance Company, Zürich Switzerland

jens.mehlhorn@swissre.ch M.SC. JOHN HARDING ISDR Secretariat United Nations, Geneva Switzerland

THE ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY TO FLOODS CONTENTS • The vulnerability to floods on a global scale • Flood risk in developing countries: what can we do about it? • Examples 13:45 - 15:15 TIME: 2×45 MIN

harding@un.org

26 - 29 MARCH
INDIVIDUAL WORK ON ASSIGNMENTS

30 MARCH (FRIDAY)
DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION OF ASSIGNMENTS (EPFL) CONTENTS • Individual presentations of assigned projects • Discussion of assigments DR. PETER MOLNAR Inst. of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management ETH Zürich Switzerland molnar@ihw.baug.ethz.ch

10:00-17:00

TIME: 6 HRS

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