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A project report submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of Masters of Science (Computer Science – Real Time Software Engineering)

Faculty of Computer Science and Information System Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

MAY 2009


ALHAMDULILLAH…. To my beloved parents, my wife, brothers and sisters who have given me courage and strength



In completing the project, there are many individuals who have contributed to the success of this research. First and foremost, special thanks to my academic supervisor, Prof. Dr. Shamsul Sahibuddin who has guided me throughout this research work. Appreciation also goes to my industrial supervisor who is also the Senior Manager of Test Centre of Excellence department, Mr. Mohamed Redzuan Abdullah for his support and constructive comment in completing this project. I am very grateful to my parents and parents’ in-law who always put trust and faith in me to continue working for this research. Special gratitude goes to my wife who continually gives her dedicated encouragement to me throughout the tough period. Not forgotten, thank you to the members of Test COE department for their cooperation and valuable inputs in ensuring the success of this project. Not forgotten, special thanks to my Six Sigma coach for his constant cooperation and technical guidance. Last but not least, great gratitude expressed to the colleagues of Part Time 9 for Real Time Software Engineering programme. My thanks also go to staffs of Centre for Advanced Software Engineering (CASE) who have involved directly or indirectly in the project.



The need for predicting defects in testing phase is important nowadays as part of the improvement initiatives for software production process. Being the group that ensuring successful implementation of verification and validation process area, all test engineers in Test Centre of Excellence (Test COE) department are required to play their part to discover software defects as many as possible and contain them within testing phase. This research is aimed to achieve zero-known post release defects of the software delivered to end-user. To achieve the target, the research effort focuses on establishing a defect prediction model for testing phase using Six Sigma methodology. It identifies the customer needs on the requirement for the prediction model as well as how the model can benefits them. It also outlines the possible factors that associated to defect discovery in testing phase. Analysis of the repeatability and capability of test engineers in finding defects are elaborated. This research also describes the process of identifying type of data to be collected and techniques of obtaining them. Relationship of customer needs with the technical requirements is then explained clearly. Finally, the proposed defect prediction model for testing phase is demonstrated via regression analysis. This is achieved by considering faults found in phases prior to testing phase and also the code size of the software. The achievement of the whole research effort is described at the end of this project together with challenges faced and recommendation for next research work.



Keperluan terhadap meramalkan kecacatan dalam fasa pengujian adalah penting pada masa kini sebagai sebahagian daripada inisiatif pembaikan untuk proses penghasilan perisian. Menjadi kumpulan yang memastikan kejayaan perlaksanaan bidang proses verifikasi dan validasi, semua jurutera pengujian di jabatan Pusat Kecemerlangan Pengujian adalah diperlukan dalam memainkan peranan mereka untuk menjumpai kecacatan perisian sebanyak yang mungkin dan membendung kecacatan tersebut dalam lingkungan fasa pengujian. Penyelidikan ini menyasarkan untuk mencapai kecacatan sifar diketahui bagi pasca pelepasan untuk perisian yang diserahkan kepada pengguna akhir. Untuk mencapai sasaran tersebut, usaha penyelidikan bertumpu kepada mewujudkan model ramalan kecacatan untuk fasa pengujian dengan menggunakan kaedah Six Sigma. Ia mengenal pasti keperluan pengguna ke atas keperluan model ramalan dan juga bagaimana model tersebut member manfaat kepada mereka. Ia juga menggariskan faktor-faktor yang berpotensi dikaitkan dengan penemuan kecacatan dalam fasa pengujian. Analisa mengenai kebolehulangan dan kemampuan para jurutera pengujian dalam menjumpai kecacatan turut dihuraikan. Penyelidikan ini juga menerangkan proses mengenal pasti jenis data yang perlu dikumpul and teknik untuk memperolehnya. Kaitan keperluan pengguna dengan keperluan teknikal kemudiannya diterangkan dengan jelas. Akhirnya, cadangan model ramalan kecacatan untuk fasa pengujian ditunjukkan melalui analisa regresi. Ini dicapai dengan menimbang kesilapankesilapan yang dijumpai dalam fasa-fasa sebelum fasa pengujian dan juga saiz kod untuk perisian tersebut. Kejayaan untuk keseluruhan usaha penyelidikan dijelaskan di akhir tesis bersama-sama dengan cabaran yang dihadapi dan cadangan untuk kerja penyelidikan seterusnya.





PAGE iii iv v vi vii viii x xi xii



INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Introduction to Defect Prediction Model for Software Testing 1.3 Background of Company 1.4 Background of Problem 1.5 Statement of Problem 1.6 Objectives of Study 1.7 Importance of Study 1.8 Scope of Work 1.9 Project Schedule

1 1

1 2 3 5 6 7 7 7

ix 1.10Project Outline 8


LITERATURE REVIEW ON DEFECT PREDICTION MODEL FOR TESTING PHASE 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Defect Prediction across Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) 2.3 Reviews on the Defect Prediction across SDLC and Testing Phase 2.4 Applications and Issues of Defect Prediction 2.5 Summary of the Proposed Solution

10 10


19 20 30


METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Six Sigma - DMADV Methodology 3.3 Supporting Tools

31 31 31 36


PROJECT DISCUSSION 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Findings of Define Phase 4.3 Findings of Measure Phase 4.4 Findings of Analyze Phase

37 37 37 44 50


CONCLUSION 5.1 Achievements 5.2 Constraints and Challenges 5.3 Recommendation

53 53 55 56








1.1 2.1 2.2

Project schedule Short-term defect inflow prediction example Strength and weakness of defect prediction techniques

8 17

27 32 33

3.1 3.2

Project team Customer identification






2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

Defects detection techniques Defects per life cycle phase Defects based on testing metrics Relationship between CMM levels and delivered defects

12 14 15

15 16

2.5 2.6

Short-term defect inflow prediction example Normalized results from the application of CDM Model to test process

19 22

2.7 2.8

Process Performance Model Graphical representation of Rayleigh model parameters

24 25 25 26 32 38 39 40 41 42

2.9 2.10 2.11 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

Prediction without process metrics Prediction with process metrics High level schematic of whole phase BN DMADV phases MIMOS software production process Schematic diagram Detail schematic – Y to X tree diagram Team charter Customer need statement

xii 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 1st level of KJ analysis 2nd level of KJ analysis Kano analysis House of quality for defect prediction model Test case experiment result Assessment agreement Assessment agreement for within appraiser Assessment agreement for each appraiser against standard 4.14 Assessment agreement for all appraisers against standard 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 Operational definition Data collection plan Data for regression Regression result 48 49 50 51 51 48 43 43 44 45 46 47 47




- Bayesian Network - Capability Maturity Model - Capability Maturity Model Integration - Centre of Excellence

COQUALMO - Constructive Quality Model CUT DfSS DMADV FMEA FP IPF ISP JARING KJ KLOC LOC MEMS MIMOS MOF MSA NEMS PC PDF - Code and Unit Testing - Design for Six Sigma - Design, Measure, Analyze, Design, Verify - Failure Mode and Effect Analysis - Function Point - In-Process Fault - Internet Service Provider - Joint Advanced Research Integrated Networking - Kawakita Jiro - Kilo Lines of Code - Lines of Code - Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems - Malaysian Institute for Microelectronic Systems - Ministry of Finance - Measurement System Analysis - Nano-Electro-Mechanical Systems - Personal Computer - Probability Density Function

xiv QFD R&D SDLC SEI TER UAT V&V - Quality Function Deployment - Research and Development - Software Development Life Cycle - Software Engineering Institute - Test Effectiveness Ratio - User Acceptance Test - Verification and Validation






This chapter describes the introduction of the research effort presented throughout this project. It illustrates the overview of the research that encourages the establishment of defect prediction model for software testing phase. The discussion continues with background of the research, problem statements, research objectives and the importance of the research. The scope of work and project outline is then explained in the last sections of this chapter.


Introduction to Defect Prediction Model for Software Testing

As an organization that aims to become a premier applied research centre in frontier technologies, MIMOS has always committed to develop, produce and release high quality software to the market. One of the key aspects to ensure it can be achieved is by having effective and efficient software development process throughout entire SDLC. Thus, prediction or estimation of defects for particular software during testing phase is very crucial to enhance the testing process as part of process improvement in SDLC.

2 Being the last gate before acknowledging that the particular software is ready to go to the market requires strong and accurate data and metrics. The initiative on having defect prediction model for testing phase helps in determining defects that are likely to occur during test execution and contributes in providing relevant software quality metrics. Defect prediction model for testing contributes to zero-known post release defects of a software product. This is determined by defect containment in testing phase. Predicting total number of defects at the start of testing allows for wider test coverage to be put in place. As more defects contained within testing phase, it helps in improving quality of software product being delivered to end user. By using testing metrics for predicting total defects, it demonstrates the stability of development effort of releasing a software product.


Background of Company MIMOS or Malaysian Institute for Microelectronics System was established on 1st

January 1985 as a unit of Prime Minister’s department following the initiative by group of academicians led by Tengku Dr. Mohd Azzman Shariffadeen. The initial objective is to conduct microelectronics research to support the industries as well as to develop indigenous products. After going through corporatization exercise as a company under Ministry of Finance (MOF), MIMOS has been focusing on three (3) core functions: Research and Development (R&D), National IT Policy Development and Business Development. Since then, MIMOS has embarking on various initiatives and projects including manufacture affordable personal computer (PC), commission industrial-class water fabrications plant, launch first Malaysia’s first Internet Service Provider (ISP) called JARING, initiate Computer Forensic Services and also launch AgriBazaar. On 1 July 2006, Dato’ AbdulWahab Abdullah was appointed as new President and Chief Executive Officer of MIMOS replacing Tengku Dr. Mohd Azzman Sharifadden. The appointment of Dato’ Abdul Wahab has turned MIMOS from the R&D organization in ICT and microelectronics to world class R&D Centre of Excellence.

3 With the tagline “Innovation for Life”, MIMOS is now the premier applied research centre in frontier technologies aimed at growing globally competitive indigenous industries. Through smart partnerships with local and international universities, research institutes, industries and Malaysia Government, MIMOS focuses on frontier technologies by pursuing exploratory and industry-driven applied research. To date, research and technology areas in MIMOS are refined into eight (8) technology clusters: Advanced Informatics, Communication Technology, Cyberspace Security, Encryption Systems, Grid Computing, Knowledge Technology, Micro Energy, and Micro Systems (MEMS/NEMS) cluster.


Background of the Problem

As defect becomes the main intention of software testing, test engineers of Test Centre of Excellence (Test COE) are expected to find and discover any errors, bugs and faults in the software through various kinds of testing techniques or strategies. Estimation of defects to be found upfront at the start of testing phase is very important to strategize on executing the test for the software. As this research problem concentrates on formulating a defect prediction model for testing, several issues contribute to this research problem.


Issue on Better Resource Planning for Test Execution Across Projects

Currently, number of test engineers allocated to a particular testing project is based on the size of the project including how detail the requirements are and complexity of the software being developed. At the same time, one test engineer can work in more than one testing project. Thus, there is a need to estimate the number of defect to be found in testing phase. Appropriate number of test engineers can be planned and

4 allocated across multiple projects. Estimated number of defects is required to support the resource planning activities within the testing department to ensure the resources are optimized and productivity of every test engineer is high.


Issue on Wider Test Coverage to Find Defect

Defects are found while test execution is still in progress. Test engineer applies various testing techniques to find and discover as many defects as possible based on the baseline requirements. There is no specific pre-determined factor that a test engineer can use as a basis to find defects. As a result, test engineer will continue to find defects until end of the execution schedule. To ensure wider and better test coverage, prediction of defects could improve the way test engineers find defects as they are now having a target of defects to be found. This can be in a form of adding more type of testing to use or adding more and relevant scenarios on how users will utilize the software which results in better root cause analysis of defects found and improve engineer’s understanding of the software under test.


Issue on Improving Test Execution Time to Meet Project Deadline

As test engineer need to discover as many defect as possible during text execution, there might be slip in schedule and cause the delay in the deliverables of the software work product from the actual planned release date. This due to necessity of ensuring all testing requirements for the software are fulfilled and covered. Putting defect prediction in place will reduce and overcome the schedule slippage problem contributed by testing activities. By having a target on estimated number of defects to be discovered, every test engineer would be able to plan test execution accordingly to ensure project deadline is achieved.

5 1.4.4 Issue on Reliability of Software to be Delivered

Defects found during testing phase are given back to development team for bugs fixing. The fixed software is then retested in several iterations to validate the defects have been resolved. More defects found within testing phase means more defects are contained from escaping to field or market that will be using the software. However, test engineers cannot give the exact figure of defect that be contained within testing phase. This is where the existence of defect prediction is really needed to provide a direction on how many defects engineers should discover and contain within the phase. Having this estimated figure contributes to the zero-known post release defects of the software. In the long run, the metrics associated with the defect prediction will portray the stability of the development effort in completing and releasing software product.


Statement of the Problem

This research is intended to tackle the issues with regard to system testing process as explained in Section 1.4. The main question to address that is “How to predict the total number of defects to be found at the start of system testing phase using a model?”. Followings are the list of sub-questions to support main research questions: i. ii. What are the key contributors to test defect prediction model? What are the factors that contribute to defect found in system testing phase? iii. How to measure the relationship between the factors of defect with the total number of defects in system testing phase? iv. What is the type of defect category that needs to be considered to calculate the total defects of the software? v. How can the prediction model helps in improving the testing process and improve the software quality? vi. What type of data should be gathered and how to get them?

6 1.6 Objectives of the Study The research is aimed to achieve following set of objectives to address the issues and problems mentioned before. The objectives are: 1) To establish a defect prediction model for software testing phase 2) To demonstrate the approach in building a defect prediction model using Design for Six Sigma (DfSS) Methodology 3) To identify the significant factors that contribute to a reliable defect prediction model 4) To determine the importance of defect prediction model for improving testing process


Importance of Study

As the organization is moving towards achieving CMMI Level 5 status company, it needs to improve and refine the Verification and Validation (V&V) Process Area. For this reason, Test Centre of Excellence (Test COE) plays the important role to ensure the goal is achieved by improving the internal testing process. As the testing approach being applied is based on V-Model, it is essential to refine all processes with regard to V&V across all phases in the life cycle, starting from requirement until actual system testing phase. By having a model to estimate and predict total number of defects in the system testing phase, it does help the testing team to contribute in achieving the said target. Putting the defect prediction in the process serves as the preventive mechanism in reducing the occurrence of defects (Mohapatra and Mohanty, 2001). Furthermore, it could be beneficial tool to reduce testing time. Reduction in testing time is accomplished by implementing effective test strategy in minimizing escaped defects while utilizing resources efficiently. At the same time, the development team can use the model to guide them in implementing higher quality codes. Obviously by looking from the overall perspective of software development life cycle, defect prediction model for test does

7 improve the verification and validation process, specifically in ensuring zero-known post release defects of a software product.


Scope of Work

In this research, the scope is focused on exploring and establishing a model of defect prediction specifically for system testing phase. Study on the defects means the identification of faults, errors and bugs in the software during system testing phase of software development life cycle. It can be from functional defects, security defects, usability defects to performance defects. In order to do the prediction for these defects, analysis is done to determine the factors or contributors to the introduction of defects in the testing phase. This involves identifying all possible significant factors such as faults in requirement phase, design phase, code and unit test phase, size of the software, fault density and historical defects. Moreover, the scope of work also emphasizes on measuring the capability of test engineers in discovering defects.

The work on modeling is done to establish the relationship between the identified predictors against the defects found in testing phase. Individual analysis of each possible predictor need to be performed to determine which factors that has strong connection with defects. The output is going to be the proposed model that will be normalized to suit all kind of projects.


Project Schedule The research which is also serves as the professional training started from 20

October 2008 until 17 April 2009. However, the actual end date for this project is on 30 May 2009 since it needs to follow the agreed schedule as per Six Sigma Green Belt project methodology, in which it starts with Define phase, Measure phase, Analyze

8 phase, Design phase and Verify phase. For the purpose of this project, the results and discussion will be presented up until end of Verify phase schedule. The schedule is presented as below:

Table 1.1: Project schedule Phase Define Measure Analyze Design Verify Start Date 20/10/2008 01/12/2008 01/02/2009 01/04/2009 01/05/2009 End Date 30/11/2008 31/01/2009 31/03/2009 30/04/2009 30/05/2009


Project Outline

This research encompasses the discussion on the several topics and subjects related to establishing a defect prediction model for testing phase. Thus, the research is organized into the followings for further understanding of the subject matter.

Chapter 2:

This chapter discusses on the literature review of the defect

prediction model. Discussion involves overview of the several techniques in predicting software defects across Software Development Life Cycle, some issues with regard to defect prediction, strategies in predicting defects for software testing phase as well as application of the defect prediction model in improving software process.

Chapter 3:

It discusses the research methodology applied in analyzing the

research problem and formulating the proposed solution with regard to Six Sigma Green Belt DMADV track.

9 Chapter 4: This chapter outlines the discussion on the outcome of the research

activities that covers the characteristics of data being gathered, analysis of relationship on possible factors that contributes to the prediction defect as well as establishing the proposed model that be verified and validated to ensure it is fit to be incorporated into the software process.

Chapter 5:

This chapter summarizes the research studies that include the

achievement that have been obtained and how the proposed outcome of defect prediction model for test could contribute to the user. Then, it concludes with the limitation of the proposed solution together with recommendations for the future research work.






This chapter outlines and describes the approaches in predicting the number of defects to be discovered for a software product, particularly for software testing phase. It presents the overview of various techniques and models in predicting software defects across Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC). It then focuses on strategies in estimating defects for software testing phase using various models. Next, it describes the application and use of defect estimation with regard to software process improvement and software quality. Several critiques on defect prediction model are also presented. Finally, this chapter illustrates the proposed model in predicting and estimating defects for software testing phase.


Defect Prediction across Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC)

This section describes the approaches of defect prediction throughout Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC). It consists of perspectives of defect and defect prediction, approaches and techniques of defect prediction as well as relationship of defect prediction with reliability.

11 2.2.1 Perspectives of Defect and Defect Prediction

The term defect itself can be expressed in various ways. Defect is referred as a flaw in a component or system that can cause the component or system to fail to perform its required function (Graham, Veenendaal, Evans and Black, 2007). According to Fenton and Neil (1999), when there is deviation from specifications or expectations of particular software, then it is also called a defect. Clark and Zubrow (2001) also express defect as any flaw or imperfection in a software work product or software process. The defect found is referred to as fault or bug. Regardless of any of the definition, both are expressing towards common understanding, in which when defect takes place, it may cause failures in operation of a component or a system.

In the context of defect prediction, it is vital to analyze the defects and understand the rationale of predicting defects. Predicting defects is important for assessing project progress and planning the activities of defect detection. Predicting defects also helps those involved in coming out with the software work product to decide on the work product quality. Process performance can be assessed thus improve the capability of the process. That is why defect is always the main subject of defect prediction.


Defect Detection and Defect Prediction

As defect becomes the main focus of defect prediction, we should be able to distinguish between different defect severities, either major or minor defects. Minor should not be taken into considerations as it will inflate the estimation of product defects. From the observations done, most defect prediction depends on historical data. Furthermore, the techniques used to predict defect vary especially in term of data required (Clark and Zubrow, 2001). Prediction of defect can require little or more data. It also can rely on some work product characteristics or only use defect data. These

12 differences in the quality of inputs used for predicting defects will determine the strengths and weaknesses of a particular defect prediction.

To start off with estimating defects, we must first aware on how defects are detected and generated. The purpose of understanding the defect detection is to identify the sources of defect or how defects are discovered. Defects can be detected either from verification and validation (V & V) process or post-deployment. Figure below summarizes the defect detection techniques as outlined in the studies by Clark and Zubrow.

Figure 2.1: Defects detection techniques

In general, defect prediction deals with estimating number of defects or faults. Defect prediction is usually used interchangeably with other terms such as defect estimation, fault prediction or fault estimation. Nayak and Naidya (2003) describe defect estimation as a proactive process of identifying various kinds of defects in the design, content and code of a software product with the aim to enhance product quality and performance capability. Having the defect prediction helps in estimating the quality of software before being released and used by the users. To answer this, again Fenton and Neil (1999) observed the effort from three areas: predicting the number of defects in a

13 system, estimating the reliability of systems in terms of time to failure, and understanding the impact of design and testing process on defect counts and defect densities.

This defect prediction is expressed in a form of equations describing the defect inflow as a function of other selected measurements such as milestone completion status or lines of code (LOC), either from a short-term or long-term standpoint (Staron and Meding, 2007). Both standpoints help in monitoring the project status and project progress in developing software.

2.2.3 Approaches and Techniques of Defect Prediction

Various approaches and techniques have been formulated and applied in predicting number of defects throughout the entire SDLC. The techniques or approaches which are presented in a form of model or equation are developed according to several sources and metrics. Neil and Fenton (1999) presented their findings on how defects are predicted. First approach is prediction by using size and complexity metrics, in which it predicts defects directly based on program code, mostly towards lines of code and McCabe’s Cyclomatic complexity. According to them, a study by Akiyama of Fujitsu, Japan showed that linear models of some simple metrics provide reasonable estimates for the total number of defects. From the four equations computed by him, one of them involves equation on lines of code (LOC) as below:

Defect (D) = 4.86 + 0.018 Lines of Code (L)

They added on the argument by Gaffney that stated relationship between Defect (D) and Lines of Code (L) was not language dependent due to optimal size for individual modules with regard to defect. Lipow’s data is used for the prediction: D = 4.2 + 0.0015 L4/3

14 Further analysis was then conducted by Compton and Withrow who derived the polynomial equation, in which they concluded that the optimum size for an Ada module is 83 source statements with respect to minimizing error density. The equation is as below: D = 0.069 + 0.00156 L + 0.00000047 L2

Second approach as outlined by Neil and Fenton is predicting defects using Function Point (FP). It is a measure of number of functionality in requirements for particular software. This Albrecth Function Point describes defect density prediction by using metric extracted at specification stage due to believe function point-based metric is better than lines of code and is language independent.

Figure 2.2: Defects per life cycle phase

Testing metrics is another approach given by Neil and Fenton for predicting defects. This involves careful collection of data on defects found during inspection and testing phases. Test coverage measure is one of the testing metrics used to predict defect via structural testing strategy. The resulting metric is called Test Effectiveness Ratio (TER) that covers either statement coverage, branch coverage or Linear Code Sequence and Jump coverage. Examples of how defects are found based on testing metrics is presented below:


Figure 2.3: Defects based on testing metrics

Finally in their findings, Neil and Fenton described the usage of process quality data to predict the defects of software. This was expressed through the SEI Capability Maturity Model (CMM) ranking. The table below outlines the relationship between CMM levels and delivered defects.

Figure 2.4: Relationship between CMM levels and delivered defects

For large software projects, studies by Staron and Meding have produced two types of prediction model which is defect inflow prediction (2007). One model is for short-term defect inflow prediction and another is for long-term defect inflow prediction. Historical data from the defect inflow trends and project plans is used to construct the short-term prediction model. From the data, multivariate linear regression prediction model is created, which then is applied in new projects to predict number of defects for a particular week. This multivariate regression model for short-term prediction is represented as an equation based on several independent variables as below:

Y = a0x0 + a1x1 + … + anxn

16 From the equation, values for ‘a’ is the coefficient calculated using statistical regression while method while ‘x’ is the independent variable. Based on the short-term prediction model, project team members can predict the number of inflow defects to be found in future week of the project execution. As presented in the example below given in their studies, project manager should pay more attention to week 13, based on current situation of the project including number of defects reported in current and previous week as well as status of planned and accumulated number of packages.

Figure 2.5: Short-term defect inflow prediction example

Software Engineering Institute (SEI) of Carnegie Mellon University also conducted a study of the level of goodness for particular software. That study by Clark and Zubrow (2001) emphasized on techniques in defect prediction. They categorized defect prediction techniques into three areas: project management, work product assessment and process improvement. Project management covers prediction techniques such as empirical defect prediction, defect discovery profile, COQUALMO and orthogonal defect classification. For work product assessment area, it involves fault proneness evaluation and capture/recapture analysis. As for process improvement area, defect prevention and statistical process control techniques are used. The descriptions for all these techniques are presented in the table below:

17 Table 2.1: Short-term defect inflow prediction example Area Project Management Technique Empirical Defect Prediction Description Number of defects per size (Defect density) Defect density (Number of

defects/thousands line of codes) based on historical data Enhanced with historical data on injection distribution and yield Defect Discovery Profile Projection based on time or phrases of defect density found in process onto theoretical discovery curve (Rayleigh) COQUALMO Defect prediction model for

requirements, design and coding phases based on sources of introduction and discovery techniques used Orthogonal Defect Classification Classification and analysis of defects to identify project status based on

comparison of current defects with historical patterns Work Product Fault Proneness Evaluation Assessment (Size, Complexity, Prior History) Capture/Recapture Analysis Analysis of work product attributes to plan for allocation of defect detection resources (inspection and testing) Analysis of pattern of defects detected within an artifact by independent defect detention activities (inspectors or

inspection versus test) Process Improvement Statistical Process Control Defect Prevention Program Root cause analysis of most frequently occurring defects Use of control charts to determine whether inspection performance was

18 consistent performance with prior process


Defect Prediction in Testing Phase of Software Development Life Cycle

Approaches used in the previous findings of defect prediction mostly covered the potential number of defects to be found for all phases in Software Development Life Cycle but no specific prediction techniques explained for Testing phase. Although there are some techniques mentioned about defects to be found in System Test phase but the findings also take into account the defects to be found prior to and after System Test phase. The main intention is to understand more on the prediction techniques of defects to be found specifically for software testing phase of SDLC. Bertolino and Marchetti (2003) introduced a simple model called Bemar model. This model is used to predict the expected number of remaining failures in early test phases. It is quite simple since it predicts number of defects based on intervals of time between subsequent failures. The model is represented as below: NF, k = NFTI, k . Ek[F] NFK is the number of failures for k test intervals, NFTI, k is the number of failures test intervals based on test information collected during k test intervals, and Ek[F] is the expectation of failures for k intervals. This Bemar model has been applied for functional testing and also operational test data. From the results, they concluded that the model assumes defects detected are distributed over the whole test period. They also suggested that the model works well to complement reliability growth models.

Sun Microsystems has come out with an approach to simulate and predict the test process behavior, including prediction of number of remaining defects in its product release. In the case study conducted at Sun Microsystems, Karcich, Cangussu and Earl

19 proposed a state variable model called as the CDM Model (2003). CDM came from the developers’ name of the state variable model for their Software Test Process: Cangussu, DeCarlo and Mathur. Besides using the model to control the test process using failure intensity as the control variable, the CDM model is also used to calculate the estimated number of total remaining defects. Having these figures, the manager can decide number of testing cycles as well as when to stop the testing.

Figure 2.6: Normalized results from the application of CDM Model to test process


Reviews on the Defect Prediction across SDLC and Testing Phase

There were many studies and researches have been conducted to predict number of defects across Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC). However, not really many reviews conducted to specifically determine the estimated defects for System Test phase. Most of them were really focused on estimating faults or defects for every phase of SDLC.

20 From the studies presented, various techniques and approaches have been applied to predict the number of defects across SDLC. The techniques can either use software size, function point, historical defect data, process-related data, quality-related data, test process data or by using derivation of existing model such as Rayleigh model and Bayesian networks as the basis of estimating defects. Mostly, the results are presented in a form of mathematical equation model.

This project is intended to analyze the various approaches and techniques that have been put in place in order to come out with prediction model for defects, narrowing to defects to be found in System Test phase of SDLC. First step in moving forward is to identify internal predictors or factors contributing to the defects found in particular software product. This will involve collection of available software, quality, process and test data. Next action is to analyze the strength of each possible factor and the relationship with the defects detected. From the results, further analysis will be carried out to develop a mathematical model suitable for predicting the defects in testing phase.


Applications and Issues of Defect Prediction

This section describes the application and issues of defect prediction. It consists of building defect prediction in practice, application of defect prediction, enhancement to defect prediction as well as issues in defect prediction.


Building Defect Prediction in Practice

It is very crucial to ensure the process of collecting data for predicting the defects is proper and accurate, so that the data that we used for analysis is correct. Generally, most of studies follow these steps or guidelines to statistically coming out with estimated defects:

21 1. Identify parameters or factors that have impact to defect injection in a software product 2. Gather defect data for past projects in terms of total number of defects detected 3. Analyze the correlation patterns between the parameters and the total defects found in past projects 4. Estimate independent parameters for new project 5. Use Linear Regression to estimate total number of defects that may get injected based on the estimated independent parameters 6. Calculate the total number of latent defects 7. Calculate efficiency required by project 8. Calculate estimated defect rate for each period using Rayleigh Distribution 9. Calculate estimated defect injection rate by phase based on project schedule 10. Plot the S-shaped curve for defect detection pattern 11. Compare Rayleigh curve and actual data to get quantitative estimate

Banerjee and Sekhar (2004) presented their own view for the processes that need to be followed in establishing a defect prediction model. Their views were based on use of Regression Analysis as the suitable basis for predicting defects due to its long proven and established statistical techniques and its goodness can be verified via statistical analysis. The processes of developing prediction model based on Regression Analysis are as follows: 1. Gather data on given independent variables and correspondent dependent variables 2. Determine the form of equation to fit by plotting the dependent and independent data sets on a special graph such as scatter plot to shows the existence of statistical relationship 3. Fit an equation depending on number of independent variables either simple or multiple regression 4. Evaluate the fit using statistics such as Coefficient of Determination (R) or Standard Error of Estimate (SE)

22 2.4.2 Application of Defect Prediction

Defect prediction is used for various purposes throughout Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC). Defect prediction model can be used to plan for quality of a software project based on the capability baseline (Banerjee and Sekhra, 2004). This is described in the Process Performance Model in which defect prediction model is one of the importance contributors. Process Performance Model predicts the effort, number or defect and other related data based on parameters such as schedule and size.

Figure 2.7: Process Performance Model

One of the items in the quality planning as outline by the two authors with regard to process performance is to control number in User Acceptance Testing (UAT) phase. For this, it starts with predicting the total number of defects using defect prediction model, which then being adjusted according to project parameters such as customer

23 quality goals, past data from similar project and type of development methodology used. Then, the defects are distributed amongst the phases in software life cycle. Next, these distributed defects are adjusted for three things: to distribute defects early in the life cycle to achieve zero defects at acceptance phase, to distribute the remaining defects in other phases as per project scope and also to be used for verification and validation strategy which involves use of various type of test strategy to tackle more defects. From the result, project team should be able to derive several measures such as defect per function point per phase, defects per person month and also review effectiveness. The data will then be recorded and tracked.

Defect prediction is also used to determine the reliability of software. This is because defect prediction is also part of the software reliability model. Software reliability model aims to estimate the reliability of the latent defects of software, especially when it is available to customers. The defects estimated across the SDLC provide a basis for describing the probability of the software operating in a given environment within the design range of input without failure (Thangarajan and Biswas, 2000). Rayleigh Model is chosen to be the suitable software reliability model as it predicts the expected value of defect density at different stages of life cycle of the project. The equation presented in the Rayleigh Model is used to predict the number of defects over time. In order to determine the accuracy of the duration and magnitude of this Rayleigh Model, specific inputs must be selected. Having good inputs to the model allows accurate forecast for a specified scenario. Three main factors of the model are mentioned in several studies: source lines of code in a form of size required to build the software functionality, productivity index in a form of product efficiency and complexity as well as peak staffing in terms of human effort required to build and test the software. Thangarajan and Biswas then explained the nature of the curve of Rayleigh model indicates the defect removal pattern across the entire life cycle. The measurement of total defects likely to be occurred from the software being constructed is represented by the area bounded by the x-axis and the curve as depicted in the figure below:


Figure 2.8: Graphical representation of Rayleigh model parameters

From the above figure, an equation of Probability Density Function (PDF) is produced, which is F (t) = f (K, tm, t). K denotes cumulative defect density, tm represents actual time unit while t is the time at the peak of the curve.

Good software maintenance also depends on good prediction model. Selecting good defect prediction model is important for pricing maintenance contracts and insurance (Li, Shaw and Herbsleb, 2003). It also helps in predicting support costs for software including maintenance staffing. Defect prediction model helps in planning the maintenance activities and timing for resolving reported defects. This is because a good model should be able to simulate occurrences of similar defects in the field. The essential thing to consider here is the different type of operational setting in which the model is applied to. The model should be able to work in environment of user-reported defects, widely-used systems, multi-release systems or commercial systems so that suitable maintenance activities can be adopted.

25 2.4.3 Enhancement to Defect Prediction One approach to enhance the defect prediction is by using the process metrics. Process metrics or process data covers the data that is gathered in and by the problem tracking system and the configuration management system (Kaszycki, 1999). The data can be in a form of number of changes since last release, number of faults found since last release, number of different developers who turned over, versions of this module since last release or number of features that were added that affected this module. By using process metrics, it contributes to developing a higher accuracy of defect prediction model as well as helps in earlier detection of defect in the development process. Figures below depict the differences between prediction without process metrics and prediction with metrics.

Figure 2.9: Prediction without process metrics

Figure 2.10: Prediction with process metrics

Another approach to the enhanced defect prediction is through advanced model. This is achieved via phase level Bayesian Networks (BN) for defect prediction. The objective is to predict defects and defect rates at different periods across software development project based on information available at any stage of development and

26 testing (Neil, 2006). This advanced model takes into account several things: how big the software is, how good the development process is, how good the testing process is and also chances of successfully of removing defects.

Figure 2.11: High level schematic of whole phase BN

Phase level BN for defect prediction is very useful to predict defects introduction, prevention, detection and removal. It also covers wider scope starting from specification, design and development, testing and rework. However, the successful implementation of this advanced technique depends on capability and maturity of the organization.

27 2.4.4 Issues in Defect Prediction

In producing and implementing defect prediction model in actual software development practice, there are several issues and concerns have been discussed and being put forward. In describing the common techniques used to predict defect in their research, Clark and Zubrow (2001) also provided the strength and weakness of each technique. The details are presented in the table below:

Table 2.2: Strength and weakness of defect prediction techniques Technique Empirical Defect Prediction • • Strength Easy to use and understand Can be implemented with minimal data • • Weakness Requires stable processes and standardized life cycle Does not account for changes in project, personnel or platform Defect Discovery Profile • Predicts defect density by time period enabling estimation of defect to be found in test • No adjustment mechanism for efficiency of discovery processes to account for changes in product, personnel, platform or project will impact defect predictions COQUALMO • • Predict defects for three phases Quantify effects of different discovery techniques on detection and removal of defects • • Covers small number of phases Does not predict test or post-deployment defects

28 Orthogonal Defect Classification • • • Classifications linked to process provide valuable insight Classification takes little time Fault Proneness Evaluation (Size, Complexity, Prior History) Efficient and effective focus of defect detection activities • • • Requires development of classification scheme Does not account for changes in people, process or product “In-process” fault density by module or component may not predict operational fault density; effort may be misdirected Capture/Recapture Analysis • Can be used as soon as data are available • Estimates of number of remaining defects best when stringent assumptions are met Defect Prevention Program • Allows for comparison of defect trends overtime to assess impact and ROI for defect prevention activities • • • Requires sampling of defects and in-depth analysis and participation by engineers to identify root cause Statistical Process Control Gives indication of inspection and development process performance Requires stable process and real time data

collection and analysis

Several critiques have been brought up with regard to current approaches of defect prediction (Fenton and Neil, 1999). The critiques involve the unknown relationship between defect and failures (1), problems with multivariate statistical approach (2), problems of using size and complexity metrics as sole predictors of defects (3), problems in statistical methodology and data quality (4) as well as false claims about

29 software decomposition and “Goldilock’s Conjecture” (5). Reasons for critique 1 are due to difficulty to determine upfront the importance of defect by classifying them to different classes and also variety of how different users use the system resulting in variety in operational profiles and difficulties to predict which defects cause which failures. Critique 2 is related to using multivariate techniques, such as factor analysis that involves producing metrics that cannot be interpreted directly into program features. Explanations to critique 3 are related to ignorance of the prediction on programmers and designers as causal effects since faulty code introduced by them, poor design ability that leads to complex programs and inconsistencies between design modules due to complex design. Issues in critique 4 are caused by lack of attention to the essential assumptions for particular statistical technique, removal of data points without proper justification and less focus between model prediction and model fitting. Finally, critique 5 takes place because of inaccurate modeling and inference due to unclear relationship between module size and defect density.


Reviews and Remarks on Application and Issues in Defect Prediction

In order to build a good defect prediction model, it is imperative to have and follow appropriate steps. It should start with identifying suitable parameters that influence the introduction of defect in software before moving on with collecting data with regard to the identified parameters. Then, the data collected from previous step should be plotted in a graph against the defects found to study and establish statistical relationship between them in a form of equation. The equation obtained from the graph is fitted and evaluated using statistical technique such as verifying it using current and future projects until it satisfies the purpose of the model.

From various reviews conducted, having defect prediction in place helps in increasing the software product quality while saving maintenance cost and effort. Defect prediction also facilitates the distribution of testing resources in parallel with defect

30 density. Sources of defects also can be identified through predicting defects. Putting defect prediction in practice enables the creation of quantifiable metrics to aid the decision making on software product delivery.

Several critiques towards existing defect prediction have revealed the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and technique. It also shows the capabilities of existing models to cater for different objective of defect prediction, thus provides the opportunities for more improvement to be imposed on these models in improving the quality and reliability of software.


Summary of the Proposed Solution

From the above discussion, the author draws several conclusions with regard to new approach of defect prediction model for software testing phase in SDLC. First, it is important to set the clear objective of what the proposed model need to achieve when it is implemented in real software development operations, which is to be able to estimate total number of defects to be discovered in software testing phase. Getting started with sample technique will do. Second, identification and collection of appropriate factors’ data that has strong significance with defect need is very essential in defect prediction by following proper steps or processes, especially historical data. Whatever data that is available in place could help in determining the suitable prediction technique. This is because the historical data may drive the model selection. This bring to third conclusion in which the statistical relationship between the factors and defects must be established in coming out with the model to determine the correlation between those parameters. Instead of just focusing on fixing defects, analysis on the patterns against defects can be carried out. Fourth, verification of the model, in which in a form of equation, must be performed to ensure the model works and suitable with the internal software production process.






This chapter discusses the research methodology applied towards the establishment of defect prediction model for testing phase. As this project is a Six Sigma Green Belt project, the methodology follows the Design for Six Sigma (DfSS) approach, which is DMADV comprises of Define phase (D), Measure phase (M), Analyze phase (A), Design phase (D) and Verify phase (V). Then, it explains on the supporting tools used throughout this research with regard to data gathering, data analysis and also the establishing the proposed model.


Six Sigma - DMADV Methodology

As mentioned, the research uses Six Sigma DMADV methodology consists of Define, Measure, Analyze, Design and Verify phases. As this research will finish in end of May 2009, the research has been completed until end of Analyze phase. However, complete activities in all phases are explained throughout this chapter.

32 3

Figure 3.1 DMADV phases 1:


Define Ph hase

In this ph hase, busines opportunit that leads to the estab ss ty s blishment of this researc f ch is ide entified. It involves pro oducing busi iness scoreca drill-dow as well as building a ard wn tree d diagram. These are deriv from the organizatio software production process. Thi ved e on is is wh here the Big Y or busin g ness target a detail tr diagram are defined Then, it i and ree m d. is requi ired to devel the team charter an build effe lop m nd ective team. Building a team charte er invol lves identifyi Project S ing Sponsor, Pro oject Champion, Leader and Team M Members.

Table 3 Project t 3.1: team Project Type P Sponsor Champion C Leader L Team T Members M DMAD DV Moham Redzuan Abdullah med n Moham Redzuan Abdullah med n Muham mmad Dhiaud ddin Moham Suffian med V.Veera anjeneya Reddy Mohd K Khairulnizam Md Dahar m ri Vivek K Kumar Nagesw Kumara wari an

Project sc cheduling is outlined in this phase t determine start date, end date an to e nd off mpion for eve phase. Th the acti ery hen, ivity moves t identifyin to ng signo date by Project Cham the cu ustomers tha are directly related and impacted b the projec at d by ct.

33 Table 3.2: Customer identification Customers Software Tester Segments Test COE Priorities Planning & Benchmarking Benchmarking Improvement

Software Developers Software Development

After that, analysis on voice of customer is done by identifying the customer need statement, conducting KJ Analysis and performing Kano Analysis. Customer need statement is important to know what is needed by the identified customers to predict the defects and what the customers will do when the model is in place. From this exercise, the author could conduct KJ Analysis to observe the relationship among the list of customer need statement. Survey form on “What is the contributor for test defect prediction model” is distributed to all test engineers to get the total score of their needs. Then, author could perform Kano Analysis to obtain exact customer requirement and conduct further analysis.


Measure Phase Customer requirements that have been identified in Define phase is translated into

system or technical requirements. This is done using Quality Function Deployment (QFD) or House of Quality. QFD helps to determine product development characteristics by combining customer needs with technical requirements. After building the QFD, it moves to performing Measurement System Analysis (MSA). MSA that is done here is for attribute data since the result of test case execution is only PASS or FAIL. For this MSA, ten (10) test cases with known result of PASS or FAIL are selected. Then, three (3) testers are chosen to execute all test cases in random for three times. The result of this will be used to determine repeatability of test engineers in finding defects and their capability against specified standard.

34 After completing the MSA, next activity is to describe the Operational Definition. It defines the customer needs followed by the description of each customer need and unit of measurement that will be used for each need. Then, author outlines the data collection plan. Data collection plan includes the data that need to be collected with regard to defined Operational Definition. Furthermore, data collection plan also includes identifying the sample size of data, sources of data, time to gather the data, mechanism or ways to obtain the data, persons that will collect the data and measurement unit for data being collected.


Analyze Phase

This important phase involves several activities that need to be performed. From the data collected in Measure phase, author identifies significant factors that contribute to the defect detection in software testing phase. Thus, author selects the data from a few numbers of projects for analyzing the factors. Author needs to quantify any issues with regard to the data that has been collected and determine the significant factors by using comparative methods or by quantifying the design relationship. In this case of establishing the defect prediction model, author performs regression and correlation analysis of identified factors against the number of defects.

After completing the regression, author could observe the strong factors that lead to the defect discovery in testing phase. From the regression, an equation of the relationship between significant factors against the defects is generated using statistical software tool. Next, author need to identify and prevent design failure modes. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is done to identify potential failure modes, potential effect to customers, potential causes of failures and probability of failures occurrences with regard to defect discovery. Author then identifies the design alternatives and conceptual design of the proposed model. This is done using Pugh Method technique in

35 which alternative design concepts are evaluated and compared against the proposed model.


Design Phase

As this research focusing on establishing a model and not a product, several activities in Design phase are skipped. Outcome from the Analyze phase is used to perform tolerance analysis. The predicted defects from the model are compared with the actual defects found. Tolerance from that comparison is recorded and analyzed. It has been set that the actual defects found must be within 10% less or 10% more of the predicted defect. Then, the performance of the proposed model is evaluated using scorecard.


Verify Phase

In this last phase, reliability of the proposed model is assessed using statistical method. Then, author need to perform capability flow-up and scorecard to ensure customer requirements are met. If there is a need, FMEA will be updated. Finally, transition plan will be prepared. This is to ensure that the proposed defect prediction model for test is implemented and incorporated into the software production process. Final sign-off will be obtained from the relevant parties including Project Sponsor, Project Champion, Leader and the Process Owner.

36 3.3 Supporting Tools

Throughout the research on establishing the defect prediction model for testing phase, several software tools or software application are used. The tools or applications serve as the basis in gathering related data, conducting survey, building graphs and also performing regression. Followings are the tools used throughout the research: i) Rational Clear Case – software for acquiring Test Summary Report that contains the list of defects for particular projects ii) Rational Clear Quest – software for obtaining defect data for particular projects iii) iv) Microsoft Excel – software for recording survey results and MSA result Microsoft Power Point – software for documenting the results of each phase in slides format

Minitab 15 – statistical software tool for building related graphs and performing regression


MyMetrics – centralized repository of software quality metrics






This chapter discusses the results and outcome of each phase. It explains the MIMOS software production process, list of schematic diagram, team charter, customer need statement, KJ Analysis of customer need and Kano Analysis of Define phase. Discussion on outcome of Measure phase covers explanation House of Quality for Defect Prediction Model, MSA results, Operational Definition and Data Collection Plan. Then, it describes the outcome of Analyze phase including the data for regression, regression analysis, FMEA result and Pugh Method result.


Findings of Define Phase


MIMOS Software Production Process

As presented in Figure 4.1, testing team involves in all review session for each phase, starting from planning until end of system testing phase throughout the software production process. Test engineers involve in reviewing planning document, requirement

38 analysis document, design document, test planning document and test cases. The software production process is governed by project management, quality management, configuration and change management, integral and support as well as process improvement initiatives, which CMMi. From Figure 4.1, the area of study is the functional or system test phase. In order to perform further analysis and establish defect prediction model for system test phase, faults and errors captured in previous phases prior to testing phase must be considered and investigated.

Figure 4.1: MIMOS software production process


Schematic Diagram

There are two (2) schematic diagrams that have been produced, which are high level schematic diagram and detail schematic diagram. High level schematic diagram deals with establishing the Big Y or business target, little Ys, vital Xs and the goal statement against the business scorecard. In this research, Big Y is to produce software with zero-known post release defects. As for little Ys, elements that contribute in

39 achieving Big Y are defect containment in test phase, customer satisfaction, quality of the process being imposed to produce the software and project management. From the little Ys, it is obvious that testing team involves in ensuring the defect containment in test phase. There two (2) aspects involved related to this litte Y: potential number of defects before test phase which is the research interest and number of defects after completing test phase. The goal statement for this research is “To achieve and implement Defect Prediction Model for Test in Test Centre of Excellence by 30th May 2009”. This is presented in Figure 4.2 as below:

Figure 4.2: Schematic diagram

Going into detail schematic diagram, from the Vital X which is potential number of defects before test, possible factors that contribute to the defect prediction are defined and summarized in a Y to X tree diagram. Basically, author defines seven (7) main factors associated to defect prediction. They are software complexity, developer, tester, test process, fault, historical defects and projects. Software complexity could be in a form of requirement, programming language used or code size. Developer’s factor involves knowledge they have in developing the software. Knowledge of tester in testing the software product is also considered. As for the test process factor, it includes test case design coverage, test case execution productivity, test tool used and test strategy being

40 applied. Fault factor comprises of requirement fault, design fault, code and unit testing (CUT) fault, integration fault and test case fault. Historical defect factor consists of defect severity, defect category and defect validity, while for project factor involves type of project domain and project thread, either it is application based software or component based software. These descriptions are exhibited in the Figure 4.3 as below:

Figure 4.3: Detail schematic – Y to X tree diagram

4.2.3 Team Charter

In team charter, author defines the business case, opportunity statement, specific goal statement, project scope, in scope and out of scope for the project. Business case explains the relevancy of why defect prediction is needed and how it can improve the business. Opportunity statement outlines the customer of the project, potential volume and market share for the project. Specific goal statement is similar with the one that has been defined in the high level schematic diagram. Project scope defines the application of Design for Six Sigma (DfSS) using DMADV in the Testing phase of Software

41 Development Life Cycle. For in scope and out of scope section, it details out the location of project and business that is related and not related to the project.

Figure 4.4: Team charter


Customer Need Statement

Customer need statement involves two main things. First, author identifies customer need from the point of what are required or factors that could help in predicting total number of defects in testing phase. Second thing is author observe what the customer of the project will do once the defect prediction model is established and incorporated in the process. This is explained in Figure 4.5.


Figure 4.5: Customer need statement

4.2.5 KJ Analysis and Kano Analysis

From the customer need statement, author establishes the relationship between the lists of customer needs. For this purpose, author prepares a survey form and distributes the form to all test engineers. The survey is meant for collecting the scores from all test engineers on key contributors for test defect prediction model. The scores are put accordingly to the related customer needs. Using KJ Analysis, author establishes the relationship between the customer needs and observes the significance between them. The outcomes of KJ Analysis are presented below in Figure 4.6 and Figure 4.7.


Figure 4.6: 1st level of KJ analysis

Figure 4.7: 2nd level of KJ analysis

After completing KJ Analysis, author performs Kano Analysis. This is where author determines Kano identifier of the customer needs. Since the project is focused on establishing defect prediction model for testing phase, the customer need that is considered is “Estimated total number of defects to be discovered per project”. Kano identifier is “Must Be” to proceed with further analysis. Figure 4.8 shows Kano Analysis.


Figure 4.8: Kano analysis


Findings of Measure Phase

4.3.1 House of Quality

From the customer needs, it is translated into technical requirement using Quality Function Deployment (QFD). QFD determines the model characteristics by combining customer needs with technical requirements. QFD consists of customer requirements, direction of goodness, system or technical requirements, competitive analysis, importance, technical analysis and relationship matrix. From the QFD, author observed that project name, Problem Report number, submission date of defect, fault and inprocess fault are strong factors for defect prediction. Project scheduling is outned in this phase to determine start date, end date and signoff date by Project Champion for every phase. Then, the activity moves to identifying the customers that are directly related and impacted by the project.


Figure 4.9: House of Quality for defect prediction model

4.3.2 Measurement System Analysis

Measurement System Analysis (MSA) that has been conducted is the attribute MSA since result of test case execution is either PASS or FAIL. MSA begins with identifying ten (10) test cases with known result of PASS and FAIL. Then, three (3) test engineers are selected and execute the test cases in random. This is repeated three (3) times for every engineer. The result is recorded in Microsoft Excel as below:


Figure 4.10: Test case experiment result

The result as above is then transferred to Minitab software for further attribute assessment agreement. The assessment is done to evaluate the agreement within appraisers, each appraiser against standard and all appraisers against standard. For attribute agreement within appraisers, the MSA result is PASS since it shows 100% assessment agreement and shows Kappa value of 1 which demonstrates perfect agreement. Thus, it proves strong repeatability in achieving test result within tester. As for attribute agreement for each appraiser against standard, the result is also PASS since Kappa value shows the value of more than 0.7 or more than 70%. This demonstrates acceptable result of accuracy against standard. Finally, for MSA of all appraisers against standard, the result is PASS. Thus, it summarizes that overall MSA being conducted is PASS with Kappa value of more than 0.7 or 70%. These results are shown in following figures.


Figure 4.11: Assessment agreement

Figure 4.12: Assessment agreement for within appraiser


Figure 4.13: Assessment agreement for each appraiser against standard

Figure 4.14: Assessment agreement for all appraisers against standard



Operational Definition and Data Collection Plan

Operational definition describes the type of data that need to be collected, definition for each data as well as unit of measurement used for each data. The operational definition that has been prepared is summarized as below:

Figure 4.15: Operational definition

From the operational definition, a plan has been established to determine when to collect and obtain the data from the respective sources. The data collection plan consists of data that need to be collected as specified in operational definition, description of each data, sample size, sources of data, time to collect the data, methods to extract the data, responsible person to extract the data and unit of measurement that will be used for every data extracted. The plan is presented in following figure:


Figure 4.16: Data collection plan


Findings of Analyze Phase



To perform the regression, right data must be obtained to ensure correct regression is performed. Below is the data collected and used to perform the regression analysis.


Figure 4.17: Data for regression

Using the above data, author performs regression using Minitab. In Minitab, multiple regression option is chosen to do the regression. For the regression, factors that being considered are faults in requirement, faults in design, faults in CUT, total faults, inprocess fault which is faults divided by code size or KLOC and code size itself. Defects in this case are the defects raised as functional defects. Non-functional defects such as usability or performance defects are not considered to conduct the regression. The regression result is presented below:

Figure 4.18: Regression result

52 From the regression result, since total fault is highly correlated with other factors, it is removed from the equation. With R-Square values of 80.2%, the model equation to predict the defects is summarized as:

Defect = -1.27 - 0.025 Requirement – 0.026 Design + 0.320 CUT + 0.207 + 0.604 KLOC

It is also observed that KLOC and CUT are the strong factors in predicting defects by looking at the P-value of 0.009 and 0.091 respectively. However, all factors are considered to avoid bias in establishing the defect prediction model. This regression result will be used to complete another two phases: Design and Verify phases.






Although the research is not yet completed due to end date specified is in end of May 2009, several beneficial achievements have been observed and obtained with regard to establishing a defect prediction model for testing phase. Towards the end of the project, the objectives outlined beforehand have been achieved. The mathematical equation generated from the regression analysis has demonstrated that defect prediction model could be constructed with the existence of identified factors. From the model equation, author able to discover the strong factors that contribute to the number of defects in testing phase. In addition, author also realized that other important factors are also need to be considered and incorporated since those factors are also significant in predicting defects in testing phase.

Moreover throughout the research studies, author has been able to demonstrate the success of Six Sigma methodology in building a defect prediction model for testing phase. Each and every phase of the Six Sigma approach has allowed the research to be conducted in a very structured and systematic ways by having proper planning and analysis for every deliverables. Design for Six Sigma (DfSS) methodology provides opportunities to the author to clearly determine what needs to be achieved from the research, issues to be addressed, data to be collected, what needs to be measured and how the model is generated and constructed.


Technically, in building the defect prediction model, it is observed that many factors contribute to the defect discovery in testing phase. Obviously, faults in requirement, design and coding as well as in-process faults have their own relationship with defects. Code size in a form of kilo lines of code also affects the number of defects found in testing phase. By extracting the correct data from right sources, author able to conduct proper and details analysis on the identified factors while at the same time, proves that all factors must be considered in predicting defects for testing phase. On the other hand, while performing the measurement analysis and regression, author has been exposed to the usage of Minitab software, a powerful statistical solution. This has allowed author to have in-depth knowledge on the statistical knowledge and how importance the statistic is in improving the internal process.

As outlined in the business case of the team charter, this research has demonstrated the importance of defect prediction model in improving the internal software production process, specifically the testing process. Although the project is still on going until end of May 2009, the research shows that defect prediction model provides strong contribution to zero-known post release defects of particular software product since testing is the last gate in the process before the software can be said as fit for release and use. Test engineers will discover as many defects as possible to ensure all defects are contained within the testing phase and not escaping to the end-user. Additionally, having a predicted number of defects allows for better resource utilization of test engineers for a project by allocating appropriate number of testers to test the software. Better test strategy and wider test coverage could be implemented by having predicted number of defects. This can be achieved practically since every test engineer will be aware of the potential defects that they will discover. The tolerance of 10% lesser or 10% greater of actual defects found against the estimated defects could be their guide in testing the software product. Indirectly, having estimated number of defects in testing phase promotes the initiatives of the whole software development process, especially in ensuring stability of development effort in releasing a software product.

55 Furthermore, this project also shows the importance of effective communication between the team members as well as related parties that involved in gathering the software quality metrics. Author has successfully delegated related tasks to respective team members and ensuring they are completed successfully. These can be seen from performing data gathering, measurement system analysis and identification of customer needs. Besides that, effective communication is also applied when acquiring the data on software quality metrics from MyMetrics application. This is very crucial to ensure the data acquired are correct and reliable.


Constraints and Challenges

Throughout the research period, several constraints and challenges have been faced by the author. However, those challenges have been tackled accordingly to ensure the success of research effort until end of Analyze phase. First challenge that took place is when the author needs to collect the historical defects data of the selected projects. There are two sources to obtain the data: Test Summary Report and Rational Clear Quest. Author needs to extract only valid defects data from Rational Clear Quest, which means defects data with rejected status or defects that were raised out of testing phase are not considered. Author need to go through the defects data one by one for each selected project with assistance of the query provided in the system. Next, author also needs to compare that defects data extracted from the system are tally with the one reported in the Test Summary Report. However, sometimes the data are not matched between these two sources. Thus, author has to verify with respective test leads for that particular project to get the correct results.

Other challenge that has been faced was during measurement system analysis of the test case result. The MSA has to be conducted twice due to FAIL result in the first MSA activity. Author has to identify the reason on why inconsistency happened in executing the random test cases that leads to wrong test case result against the standard

56 result. Next constraint or challenge is difficulty in obtaining the data on software quality metrics. This due to the no full access given to access MyMetrics system thus resulting in less quality data can be extracted to perform further analysis. Author has to wait for quality engineers to give the data and due sometimes it caused delay to the schedule.

One more challenge happened when conducting regression analysis on the extracted data. First round of regression consists of data that involves outliers due to bigger number of requirements fault recorded. The regression result looks promising but since the data used involves outliers, it cannot be considered as the best model. Second round of regression is done and the result also looks promising. To agree with this latest equation, author has to get consensus from the Project Champion so that the author can proceed with the next phases.



To date, analysis of the proposed defect model is still being done until its completion in end of May 2009. However, from the research effort being done since start of this project, author already observes the improvements and recommendations that could be done. First recommendation is to consider more factors besides current factors that have been identified. Next research effort can focus on considering other factors with detail analysis. As of current effort, author only considers code size factor, in-process fault (IPF) and faults found in phases prior to testing phase. Moving forward, author can consider test case fault, test case coverage, test case productivity and defect severity as other factors that lead to defect discovery in testing phase. Other than, as current research area focuses on predicting total number defects regardless on severity or duration of testing activities, future effort can focus on improving the defect prediction model to predict defect severity in testing phase. For example, the model can predict how many critical or major defects can be found in testing phase. The model also can focus on predicting number of defect found over time until end of test execution activities.


Other recommendation may include incorporation of this defect prediction model with other established software reliability model, such as Musa model or Shooman’s model. This could help in enhancing the confidence and reliability of the software being released to the customer or end-user. Finally, this model can be improved by splitting it to accommodate different project thread. Current model serves as generalized model to govern the prediction of defects for all project threads. In the future, specific defect prediction model can be constructed to cater for different project thread. It means that there will be a defect prediction model for application-based project and another model for component-based project.



1. Clark, B. and Zubrow, D. (2001). How Good is the Software: A Review of Defect Prediction Techniques. Software Engineering Symposium. Carnegie Mellon University. 2. Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M. (1999). A Critique of Software Defect Prediction Models. IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering. Volume 25, No.5. 3. Grottke, M. and Dussa-Zieger, K (2001). Prediction of Software Failures Based on Systematic Testing. Ninth European Conference on Software Testing Analysis and Review. Stockholm. 4. Mohanty, B. and Mohapatra, S. (2001). Defect Prevention Through Defect Prediction: A Case Study at Infosys. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Software Maintenance. 5. Nayak, V. and Naidya, D. (2003). Defect Estimation Strategies. Patni Computer Systems Liited. Mumbai. 6. Neuendorf, S. (2004). Prediction of Software Defects. SASQAG 2004. 7. Ostrand, J.T. and Weyuker, E.J. (2007). How to Measure Success of Fault Prediction Models. SOQUA ‘07. 25-30. 8. Ostrand, T.J., Weyuker, E.J., Bell, R.M. and Ostrand, R.C. (2005). A Different View of Fault Prediction. Proceedings of the 29th Annual International Computer Software and Applications Conference (COMPSAC ’05). 9. Rana, Z.A., Shamail, S. and Awais, M.M. (2008). Towards a Generic Model for Software Quality Prediction. WoSQ ’08. Leipziq.
10. Thangarajan, M. and Biswas, B. (2002). Software Reliability Prediction Model.

Tata Elxsi Whitepaper.





Name: ____________________________________________________________

From your point of view, what is the key contributor for test defect prediction model?  (Please rank from most important to least important)                      Thank you  Requirements for Software  Programming Language Used  Software Size/Code Size (KLOC)  Errors/Mistakes Captured in Phase Prior to Testing  Historical data of defects logged (Historical PRs)  Others (Please identify): ___________________________________________