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Experiment is an operation that produces outcomes which can be observed Outcome/event is the result of an experiment Sample Space is the totality of all possible outcomes of an experiment Events are said to be Mutually Exclusive when they cannot occur at the same time(occurrence of 1 implies n another) when an experiment is performed.P(A) + P(A') = 1 and P(A and A')=0 Collectively Exhaustive list is a list of all possible events of an experiment Classical Probability probability is the ratio of n. of equalaly ikely outcomes favurable for an event to the total number of utcomes

Relative Frequency we define probability of event A, occuring as the proportion of times A occurs, if we repeat the experiment sev times under the same or similar conditions. Subjective Probability determined by a personal statement of how likely an outcome is.

Marginal Probability ratio of number of possible outcomes favourable to the event A to th total number of possible outcomes P(A) = number of possible outcomes favouring A / tota number of possible outcomes the definition assumes that the elements of the sampe space have an equally likely chance of occuring. Marginal probability in case of independent events is just the addition of the probabilities of all the events in w simple event occurs. Probability Rules RULE 1 P(sample space S) = 1 RULE 2 0<=P(A)<=1 RULE 3 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) because P(A and B) = 0 when A and B are mutually exclusive evnts Additional rule In case of mutually exclusive events P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P( C) In case events re not mutually exclusive P(A or B) = P(a) + P(B) - P(A and B)

UNCONDITIONAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Independent and Dependent Events Two events A and B are independent events if the occurrence of event A is in no way related to the occurrenc occurrence of event B and vice versa two events A and B are dependent events if the occurrence of event A is related to the occurrence event B Multiplication rule: Indepnedent events P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B) Multiplication Rule : Dependent events P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B/A) P(B and A) = P(B)*P(A/B)

Conditional Probability: Inependent Events if the probability of an event is subject to a restriction on the sample space, the probability is said to be conditi conditional probability is the probability of the occurrence of an event say A, subject to the occurrence of a pre P(A/B) = P(A) Conditional Probability: dependent events P(A/B) = P(A and B)/P(B)

Bayes' Theorem P(Ai/B) = [ P(Ai)*P(B/Ai)] / [ P(A1)P(B/A1)+P(A2)P(B/A2)+….+P(Ak)P(B/Ak) ]

ame time(occurrence of 1 implies non occurrence of =0

t to the total number of utcomes

s, if we repeat the experiment several

mber of possible outcomes sible outcomes ly likely chance of occuring. e probabilities of all the events in which the

e mutually exclusive evnts

NAL PROBABILITY

in no way related to the occurrence or nonsa ated to the occurrence event B

Rule : Dependent events

he probability is said to be conditional. subject to the occurrence of a previous event say B.

Arithmetic Mean

X' = (X1 + X2 + … + Xn) / n μ = Sum of all the data points in the population / size of popuation X' = Sum of all the data points in the sample / Size of sample Calculation for Discrete Series or Ungrouped Data X' = ΣfX / Σf Calculation for Continuous Series or Grouped Data X' = Σfm / N where, m = mid-point of class = (Lower limit + Lower limit of next class) / 2 N = Σf

Median

ungrouped data if there are odd number of items media = (n+1/2) th item if there are evn no. of items mathematical property the sum of the deviations of the items from medians, ignoring signs, is the least as compared to the sum of deviations of the items from other value, ignoring signs grouped data

Median = {[(N+1)/2 - (F+1)]/fm} * W + Lm where Lm = lower limit of the median class fm = frequency of the median class F = cumulative frequency upto the lower limit of the median W = width of the class interval N = Total frequency

Quartiles those values which divide the total frequency into 4 equal parts. Deciles those values which divide the total frequency into 10 equal parts Percentiles those values which divide the total frquency into 100 equal parts Any set of these partition values divides the area of the frequency curve on histogram into equal parts

Mode

The mode is the value which occurs most frequently in a set of observations or the point of maximum frequency and around which other items of the set cluster densely Grouped Data Mode = Lmo + (f - f1) / (2f - f1 - f2) * W where, Lmo = lower limit of the modal class which is the class having maximum frequency f1, f2 = Frequencies of the classes preceding an succeeding the modal class respectively. f = Frequency of the modal class

W = class interval Bimodal distribution or multimodal distribution if there are 2 or more values which have the maximum frequency, in such cases mode should not be used as a measure of central tendency Empirical Mode Mode = 3Median - 2 Mean

MEASURES OF DIPERSION

The variability or dispersion of data of data is given by measures of dispersion. When there is no dispersion, all the data points have identical values and the values of all the measures of central t Range range = value of highest data point - value of lowest data point Deviation average of the difference of the data points from a fixed value the average deviation from zero = arithmetic mean average deviation from arithmetic mean = 0 Mean Absolute Deviation

MAD = Σ|X - X'| / n

**Standard deviation and Coefficient of Variation
**

Standard Deviation steps 1) calculation of deviations of the observations from the mean 2) squaring each deviation 3) finding the mean of the squared deviation obtained step 2 4) taking the positive square root of the mean found in step 3 σ = √ {[(X-μ)^2] / N} where, X denotes each observation μ is the arithmetic mean of the population N is the number of observations For Grouped Data σ = √ {[Σf(X-μ)^2] / Σf} where, f = frequency of the variable, μ = population mean Step Deviation Method σ = i * √ { (Σfd^2/N) - (Σfd/N)^2 } where, d = (m-A)/i i = class interval A = assumed mean m = Mid-point of the class interval Sample Standard Deviation variance square of standard deviation the smaller the value of

A probability distribution is to future w

Coefficient of Variation standard deviation / mean *100

Expected Standard deviation σ = √ [Σpi(ki-k')^2] where, pi = Probbility associated with the oc ki = ith possible rate of return k' = mean or expected rate of return n = number of possible outcomes

s = √ [Σ(X-X')^2] / [n-1] = √{ [ΣX^2/(n-1)] - [nX'^2 / (n-1)] } where, s = Sample standard deviation X' = Sample Mean If each value is increased/ decreased by a constant quantity, Standard deviation remains same i.e. SD independent If each value is multiplied/divided by a constant quantity, Standard Deviation will be similarly affected i.e. it is depen Standard Deviation of a group σ12 = √ { [N1σ1^2 + N2σ2^2 + N1d1^2 + N2d2^2] / [N1+N2] where, μi = mean of respective group σi = standard deiation of i group Ni = no. of observations in i group d1 = μ1 -μ d2 = μ2 - μ μ = (N1μ1 + N2μ2) / (N1 + N2)

hmetic Mean

Mathematical Properties 1) Σ(X-X') = 0 2) Σ(X-X')^2 < Σ(X-A)^2 where A is any other point, different from X' 3) combined average X'ab = (NaX'a + NbX'b) / ( NaNb) where, X'ab = combined mean, X'a = mean of first group, Na = no. of iems in first group, X'b = mean of secong group, Nb = no. of items in second group weighted arithmetic mean X'w = ΣwX / Σw

F+1)]/fm} * W + Lm

median class

cy upto the lower limit of the median class

Geometric Mean nth root to the product of numbers to be averaged G = (X1*X2*X3…….Xn)^(1/n)average percent increase in sales, The GM is used to find the production, population or other economic or business series overtime. Harmonic Mean reciprocal of the arithmeic mean of the reciprocal of the given individual observations HM = N/ [(1/X1) + (1/X2) + …..(1/Xn)] Weighted Harmonic mean WHM = ΣW / Σ(W/X)

ES OF DIPERSION

lues of all the measures of central tendency converge. Inter Quartile Range last value in the third quartile - last value in the first quartile Quartile Deviation (Q3 - Q1) / 2 Q1 = Lq + [(N/4 - F)/fq] * W Q3 = Lq + [(3N/4 - F)/fq] * W where, Lq = lower limit of the quartile class N = total frequency F = cumulative frequency upto quartile class, but not including quartile class fq = frequency of the quartile class W = width of the class interval

quare of standard deviation he smaller the value of σ^2 the lesser the variability or greater the uniformity in the population. probability distribution is to future what a frequency distribution is to past

Coefficient of Variation tandard deviation / mean *100

xpected Standard deviation = √ [Σpi(ki-k')^2]

i = Probbility associated with the occurrence of i th rate of return i = ith possible rate of return = mean or expected rate of return = number of possible outcomes

remains same i.e. SD independent of change of origin be similarly affected i.e. it is dependent on change of scale

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