Sensitivity of the

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
to Climate Change
Martin C. Doege
Diplomarbeit im Fach Meteorologie
angefertigt am Max-Planck-Institut f¨ ur Meteorologie,
Hamburg
Betreuer:
Dr. Marco A. Giorgetta
Gutachter:
Prof. Dr. Guy P. Brasseur
Dr. Olaf Kr¨ uger
Hamburg im Oktober 2003
False-color image of Eastern Asia and the Western Pacific in thermal infrared
taken by GOES-9 at 155 degrees East above the equator on September 21st, 2003 at
12:00 UTC. The high and thus cold cloudtops (colored in white) associated with deep
tropical convection are quite apparent in the Indonesian ”warm pool” region as well
as over the Pacific. These mesoscale systems generate internal gravity waves that
constitute a major part of the forcing driving the quasi-biennial oscillation. Heading
east-northeast along the coast of Japan is typhoon Choi-wan, showing a prominent eye.
Grayscale image decoded from the Eumetsat WEFAX transmission by the Department
of Electron Devices and Circuits at the University of Ulm.
Contents
1 Introduction 5
1.1 The QBO in observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2 Theory of the QBO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.3 Simulation of the QBO with General Circulation Models . . . . . 8
1.4 CO
2
concentration and and IPCC assessment of climate change . 9
1.5 The Brewer-Dobson circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.6 Motivation for this thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2 The MAECHAM5 General Circulation Model 15
2.1 The ECHAM lineage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.2 Modifications for middle atmosphere modelling . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.3 Model equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.4 Parameterizations related to the QBO forcing . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3 Experimental setup 19
3.1 Climatological boundary conditions for SST and sea ice cover . . 21
3.2 Initial conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4 The Control experiment 33
5 Run001 results 37
5.1 Zonal mean zonal wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
5.2 Residual circulation and forcing by resolved waves . . . . . . . . 41
5.3 Derivation of the gravity wave RMS wind parameter . . . . . . . 44
5.4 Summary of experiment Run001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
6 Run002 and Run003 results 51
6.1 Zonal mean zonal wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
6.2 Forcing by resolved and parameterized waves . . . . . . . . . . . 54
6.3 Vertical and meridional structure of the QBO . . . . . . . . . . . 58
6.4 Extratropical effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
7 Summary and conclusion 69
7.1 Future directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
A The Transformed Eulerian Mean and the
Eliassen-Palm flux 73
3
Abstract
The period of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial strato-
spheric winds is mainly determined by the magnitude of upward momen-
tum transport by equatorial waves and the intensity of the Brewer-Dobson
circulation. The observed QBO period is an average of 28 months, but it
can range from 24 to 30 months. The purpose of this study is to find out
how sensitive the period and other characteristics of the QBO are to the
climate change caused by doubling CO
2
concentration.
MAECHAM5 T42L90 experiments are conducted with initial values
and boundary conditions (sea ice cover, sea surface temperature) acquired
from the AMIP2 climatology and two lower-resolution coupled runs of
ECHAM5 and MPI-OM1 with CO
2
concentrations of 348 and 696 ppmv,
respectively.
In a test experiment with unchanged gravity wave parameterization,
both a speedup of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and a significant increase
in convective precipitation variance are observed. Increased variance in
the diabatic forcing of the tropical atmosphere leads to strengthened exci-
tation of vertically propagating waves, specifically of gravity waves. Thus
two sensitivity experiments with different parameter settings of the sub-
grid scale gravity wave drag parameterization are analyzed.
A speedup of the oscillation from the control experiment value of 34
months to between 22 and 17 months is observed, where easterly (westerly)
phase durations decrease mostly at upper (lower) QBO levels. While the
Brewer-Dobson circulation also intensifies due to stronger forcing by the
breaking of extratropical planetary waves, it does not offset the enhanced
generation of both parameterized and resolved waves.
Discrimination between zonal wind forcing by resolved and parame-
terized waves reveals considerable changes in the parameterized forcing,
which extends to lower levels and intensifies, especially maximum west-
ward acceleration. Resolved wave forcing seems to increase mostly be-
tween 10 and 20 hPa.
Considerable uncertainty about the exact amount of QBO period short-
ening remains and longer runs will need to be conducted to more accu-
rately estimate the parameterized gravity wave amplification.
1 Introduction
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO, a term coined in Angell and Korshover
1964) of equatorial stratospheric winds, discovered in the 1950s, is an oscillation
with a period of about 28 months in lower-stratospheric winds between 3 and
100 hPa, in which alternating easterly and westerly wind regimes develop at the
top and then descend at a rate of about 1 km/month. Easterlies are dominating
at the upper levels, while westerlies take precedence below. Maximum QBO
amplitude of about 20 m/s is attained at about 20 hPa, around 50 hPa the speed
of downward propagation of easterly phases often slows considerably. Below
70 hPa the QBO amplitude weakens drastically, but the signal does reach the
tropical tropopause (Baldwin et al. 2001).
The upper layers of the QBO region intersect with the vertical extent of
the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO), which is an oscillation of easterlies and
westerlies at the stratopause level with a period of six months, characterized by
easterlies at solstice and westerlies at equinox. In contrast to the QBO, the SAO
is coupled to the annual cycle, which causes westerlies in the winter hemisphere
and easterlies in the summer hemisphere. Conservation of angular momentum
then leads to zonal acceleration experienced by cross-equatorial flow. For some
time, when observational data was sparse, it was thought the QBO might be
caused by the SAO, but this was later refuted on theoretical grounds.
1.1 The QBO in observations
The lack of instruments that could reach the stratosphere and the intermit-
tent character of observations were responsible for two conflicting opinions on
the tropical stratospheric circulation—either westerlies at the lower layers and
easterlies above or the reverse: The first theory was based upon the so-called
“Krakatau easterlies”, originating when Mount Krakatau erupted in the Pacific
and its volcanic ashes entered the stratosphere, moving from east to west as well
as the “Berson westerlies”, termed after German meteorologist A. Berson, who
discovered them in his balloon observations from 1908. However, there were
also measurements that favored the opposing view of the second theory.
For a long time this controversy could not be resolved, until 1954 when
Palmer found that the boundary between the wind regimes moved with time.
This was refined by Graystone (1959), who was able to show the descending
nature of this boundary, made possible by a longer observational record. The
papers that first introduced the idea of an oscillation were those by Ebdon
(1960) and Reed et al. (1961), who had been working independently. Ebdon
and Veryard (1961) later found the oscillation to be mostly zonally symmetric,
with only minor delays between the setting in of a wind regime at a specific
5
level at different longitudes, meaning that generally zonally averaged fields are
used to investigate the QBO.
For the time span from 1953 onwards, a dataset of lower stratospheric winds
is supplied by the Stratospheric Research Group at the Free University Berlin as
part of their stratospheric data series. Observations are taken at Canton Island,
Gan (Maledives), and Singapore (Labitzke and van Loon 1999). A sample 10-
year period of the of the Singapore wind data is contoured in Figure 1. While the
basic QBO features can be seen during the entire period, considerable variability
exists in the shape of the maxima and their precise timing within the cycle.
Hence, the name quasi -biennial oscillation is justified.
Due to the long timescale and equatorial symmetry of the QBO, the QBO
zonal winds are in thermal wind balance according to u
z
= −R(Hβ)
−1
T
yy
(Andrews et al. 1987), where R is the gas constant, H is the scale height, and
β ≡ ∂f/∂y with the Coriolis parameter f ≡ 2Ωsinφ. Thus a vertical wind
shear is associated with a temperature anomaly, therefore a warm anomaly
with sinking motion exists in westerly shear and vice versa. This secondary
circulation supplies the adiabatic warming to sustain thermal wind balance and
is closed off the equator. It is visible, superimposed on the Brewer-Dobson
circulation, in plots of the residual circulation, which approximates Langrangian
tracer transport at solstice (also Andrews et al. 1987).
Figure 1: The quasi-biennial oscillation as measured by rawinsondes: zonal wind
in m/s. The data is supplied by the 2002 edition of the CD-ROM “The Berlin
Stratospheric Data Series”published by K. Labitzke’s research group at the Free
University Berlin.
1.2 Theory of the QBO
Explaining the QBO proved more difficult than first imagined, and even to
this day, while the driving forces (that is, types of waves) are well known, the
exact magnitude of each contribution is not firmly established. Nevertheless the
6
first theory put forth by Lindzen and Holton (1968) has only undergone minor
changes and is still considered basically valid today.
As soon as a long enough observational record of the QBO cycles was avail-
able, it was clear that the QBO signal was not simply a subharmonic of the SAO
or otherwise coupled to the annual cycle but an independent fluctuation, even
though the probability of QBO phase changes are somewhat dependent on the
season. Instead, the QBO can be explained as being caused by the dissipation
of equatorial gravity waves in lower stratospheric shear layers (also in Holton
and Lindzen 1968).
In the first place, there must be a wave source in the troposphere that excites
gravity waves with westerly and easterly phase speeds. The Indonesian “warm
pool” region with its most intense high-reaching convection is a prime candidate
for this. Because the Coriolis parameter is so low at the equator, the individual
waves can travel upwards into the stratosphere, their wavelength decreasing as
they encounter a layer where the difference |c −u| between the background flow
speed and their phase speed vanishes. There, close to the critical layer, the
waves are absorbed and their momentum accelerates the flow even more. Thus,
an existing slightly disturbed background flow will be amplified by the waves,
and since wave absorption takes place in the shear layers below the critical
layers, the bands of easterlies and westerlies will propagate downward.
Later it was thought that Rossby-gravity and Kelvin waves might be the ma-
jor driving force (Holton and Lindzen 1972), but in recent years at least a third
of the forcing is attributed to gravity waves and it is clear that Rossby-gravity
and Kelvin waves alone would not suffice to cause a QBO because of tropical
upwelling (Dunkerton 1997), which the QBO cycle has to act against. This
upwelling is the equatorial branch of the global stratospheric Brewer-Dobson
circulation, which is caused by planetary wave absorption in the mid-latitude
stratosphere and accompanying descent, balanced by the ascent of air through
the equatorial tropopause. The tropical upward motion counteracts the down-
ward phase propagation of the QBO, effectively doubling the wave driving nec-
essary to yield the observed QBO period. The importance of this circulation for
the QBO period has not been recognized for a long time.
The QBO has also been successfully simulated in water tank experiments
by Plumb and McEwan (1978). For this, a cylindrical tank was filled with
a solution that was then mechanically excited on its bottom by a standing
wave. A standing wave is the result of the superposition of two waves with
opposite and equal phase speeds c
1
, c
2
= −c
1
. When the fluid has been initially
at rest, a circular current soon develops which reverses its direction with a
period of several hours. This was the first experimental evidence that Holton
and Lindzen’s theory of the generation of the QBO by internal gravity wave
7
momentum deposition was essentially correct.
1.3 Simulation of the QBO with General Circulation Mod-
els
While 1- and 2-dimensional mechanistic models could be devised to simulate a
realistic QBO, general circulation models were unable to generate a QBO au-
tonomously until recently. A variety of causes were identified, first of all the
high computational demand caused by running the models at a high enough
vertical resolution to have a vertical grid spacing of less than 1 km in the lower
stratosphere necessary to resolve the stratospheric shear layers sufficiently. An-
other obstacle were too large values for the diffusion coefficient, destroying the
meridional profile of the QBO.
An important contributing factor lay in the parameterizations for convec-
tion employed in the models. While the convection parameterization usually
produced correct amounts of precipitation, the convection variances were often
too low, corresponding to drizzle in the tropics, rather than the actual violent
convection observed (Horinouchi et al. 2003). Correspondingly, the excitation
of resolved tropical waves in the model was not sufficient. Finally, a parameter-
ization for a spectrum of sub-grid scale gravity waves had to be implemented.
These kinds of model inadequacies, present in MAECHAM4 among others,
prevented the formation of a spontaneous QBO, consequently an assimilated
QBO momentum source was introduced into the experiments (Giorgetta and
Bengtsson 1999; Giorgetta, Bengtsson, and Arpe 1999). It was then possible to
compare the easterly and westerly phases of the QBO with the QBO-less control
run and study the effect of the QBO on, for instance, the Indian monsoon or the
stratospheric secondary circulation, which is relevant for global tracer transport,
in detail.
While such sensitivity experiments gave new insights into the importance of
the QBO, a GCM capable of simulating a QBO on its own without external
prescription continued to be elusive until the late 1990s, when Takahashi (1996,
1999) was the first to achieve a mostly realistic QBO in the CSSR/NIES model.
However, certain model parameters such as the horizontal diffusion coefficient
had to be changed considerably from their usual values to make this possible.
Scaife et al. (2000) used the Unified Model with the Warner and McIntire
(1999) as well as the Hines (1997a,b) schemes for the momentum transport
by sub-grid scale gravity waves to simulate a realistic QBO. Giorgetta et al.
(2002) were able to reproduce the oscillation also using the Hines scheme in the
MAECHAM5 model without any tuning of parameters.
In the remainder of this section, some of the other underlying aspects touched
8
upon in this study will be briefly reviewed in no particular order. While the
information given here is by no means exhaustive, the most important issues
that pertain to this study are outlined.
1.4 CO
2
concentration and and IPCC assessment of cli-
mate change
In the atmosphere of Earth, carbon dioxide (CO
2
) is one of the major green-
house gases, others of which also include water vapor, methane, nitrous oxide,
halocarbons, and ozone. Both the natural and anthropogenic greenhouse effect
are partly caused by the heat-trapping properties of CO
2
in the terrestrial part
of the spectrum. As a linear molecule (i.e., its three atoms lie on a line in
the time average), it has among its modes of excitation four vibrational modes,
three of which can interact with infrared radiation (Schwartz et al. 1994). The
first one (Figure 2b) has a wavelength of 4.26 µm, the others (Figure 2c,d) are
found at 14.99 µm. The fourth, at an energy of 7.20 µm, does not not change its
dipole moment during vibration, so it cannot gain or lose energy by exchange
with photons. The 15 µm absorption bands are lying at the edge of the “at-
mospheric window”, where little absorption takes place by other atmospheric
gases, and effectively close this window, trapping infrared radiation that would
otherwise have escaped into space.
(c)
(a) (b)
(d)
Figure 2: The four vibrational modes of carbon dioxide: (a) symmetric, (b)
asymmetric stretching; (c), (d) bending, where (d) is just (c) rotated by 90

.
In (a), there is no change in dipole moment during vibration, thus no interaction
with photons is possible.
The longest record of atmospheric CO
2
concentration is from the station
atop Mauna Loa, Hawaii (Figure 3). From 1958 onwards, almost continuous
measurements conducted with an infrared gas analyzer are available (Keeling
and Whorf 2002). Hawaii is a good place to measure global CO
2
levels because
it is far away from both human (industry, esp. cement manufacture, energy,
9
land-use) and natural (wildfires, vegetation) sources and sinks of CO
2
. The
only major natural sources and sinks on and around Hawaii are the ocean and
the Hawaiian volcanoes, so both of these effects have to be taken into account.
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
p
p
m
v
Figure 3: Atmospheric CO
2
concentration in ppmv determined at Mauna Loa,
Hawaii. Missing values are linearly interpolated. Data from Keeling and
Whorf (2002).
Apart from the seasonal cycle, a clear increase over time is visible. How-
ever, the precise shape of the function is still under debate: While Houghton et
al. (1996) favored an exponential growth of CO
2
concentration like the IPCC
scenario IS92a, other scientists find a more linear increase like scenario IS92d
probable, pointing out the limited supply of fossil fuel in the future.
Besides the uncertainty about anthropogenic emission, the amount of uptake
by atmosphere, land, and ocean is another important source of the differences in
concentration scenarios (Cox et al. 2000). Also, different carbon cycle models
like the Bern or ISAM models give slightly different results (Houghton et al.
2001). Consequently, an increase of atmospheric CO
2
concentration to 700 ppmv
may either happen within this century or within the next one, depending on the
model and scenario used. Of course, given the aim of this particular study,
determining the exact year in which the CO
2
concentration will double with
respect to the 1990 level is rather unimportant, however, the wide range of
models and the controversy around CO
2
emission and concentration scenarios
should be pointed out.
10
1.5 The Brewer-Dobson circulation
The Brewer-Dobson circulation in ozone was postulated by Dobson et al. (1929)
based on the observation that stratospheric ozone concentration is lower at
the equator (where it is produced by photodissociation of oxygen) than in the
mid-latitudes. Later Brewer (1949) recognized such a poleward circulation also
affected stratospheric water vapor. While such a poleward mass transport ex-
plained the observations, the cause for it was debated for some time. It was
settled by Haynes et al. (1991), who explained it with mid-latitude planetary
wave breaking, westward zonal acceleration and therefore poleward transport.
This picture of the cause of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is also termed the
“wave-driven pump”.
Figure 4: Schematic view of the tropical Hadley cell and the stratospheric
Brewer-Dobson circulation at solstice. Thin lines mark Lagrangian trans-
port, while bold arrows indicate predominant mixing directions for tracers.
Tropopause and stratopause are depicted as dashed lines (from WMO 1985).
Figure 4 shows a schematic view of the Brewer-Dobson circulation at sol-
stice with upwelling in the summer hemisphere and downwelling in the winter
hemisphere. The arrows indicate the main effects of the Brewer-Dobson circu-
lation on tracers: Upward and poleward transport (upwelling) of atmospheric
constituents such as water vapor, ozone, and man-made chemical tracers such
as ozone-destroying chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) above the tropical tropopause
and sinking motion poleward of the mid-latitudes. The main ascending branch
of the Brewer-Dobson circulation also has a seasonal dependence, shifting to the
Summer hemisphere at solstice.
The importance of the Brewer-Dobson circulation for the QBO period was
11
first recognized by Dunkerton (1997), who pointed out that the tropical up-
welling was acting against QBO phase descent, yielding a longer period than
the one that would be found if there were no such upwelling.
Because the Brewer-Dobson is a phenomenon in tracer (i.e. Lagrangian)
transport, a conventional Eulerian mean does not show it. Instead, the zonal
mean residual velocities v

and w

from the Transformed Eulerian Mean equa-
tions are commonly used, as they approximate the Lagrangian mean motion at
solstice (Andrews et al. 1987, also see Appendix A).
Tropical upwelling can also be seen in the stratospheric“tape-recorder”(Mote
et al. 1996), i.e. the ascent of water vapor anomalies through the “cold trap” of
the tropical tropopause, driven by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, which pro-
duces an anomaly that looks like a signal written on magnetic tape, because the
temperature of the “cold trap”at the tropopause (and thus the maximal amount
of water vapor mixing ratio that can pass through it) depends on the season: In
boreal winter, the tropopause is coldest, with a minimum over the warm pool
region. An alternative guess of the intensity of the Brewer-Dobson circulation
can thus also be attained by looking at the time water vapor anomalies take to
travel from a level close to the tropopause to a level further up.
1.6 Motivation for this thesis
With the availability of General Circulation Models such as MAECHAM5 that
can simulate a reasonably accurate QBO on their own, it becomes feasible to
conduct experiments to assess the influence of climate change on the quasi-
biennial oscillation.
Climate change experiments conducted with coupled atmosphere-ocean mod-
els show an increase in equatorial sea surface temperature and consequently more
convection in the tropics. Also, precipitation variance grows, therefore it is con-
ceived that more intense gravity waves are excited by the individual convective
turrets and mesoscale systems. Since the QBO is to a certain degree gravity-
wave driven, it might be presumed that this change in precipitation would tend
to change the amplitude and / or frequency of the QBO. This was already shown
by Plumb (1977) in his mechanistic model of QBO, namely that the QBO cycle
accelerates when the wave momentum fluxes are increased.
At the same time, tropical upwelling might also intensify because of higher
mid-latitude planetary wave activity due to either increased winter land-sea tem-
perature contrasts (Mokhov and Petukhov 2000) or synoptic-scale mid-latitude
cyclone forcing increase (Dickson et al. 2000), thereby decreasing QBO fre-
quency. Additionally, changes in the mean wind below the QBO levels could
affect the shape of the QBO by the selectively filtering of waves.
12
If the QBO changes its dynamical characteristics under climate change this
has global repercussions, as the QBO is not only is responsible for the secondary
circulation advecting ozone and other tracers, but it might also impact the North
polar vortex (Labitzke 1977) or modify tropical convection by influencing the
cloud-top environment.
In this study, a more limited approach is chosen, where only CO
2
concentra-
tion is varied and all other constituents of realistic climate change experiments
such as changes in aerosol concentration are not considered.
Experiments with MAECHAM5 coupled to the ocean model MPI-OM1 are
used to produce changes in lower boundary conditions between the 1xCO
2
and
2xCO
2
climates. Since those experiments feature a vertical resolution of only 19
layers, inter- and extrapolation to 90 layers has to be performed for the changes
in initial conditions. Also, because of the high computational demands imposed
by the middle-atmosphere version of ECHAM, only relatively short runs of about
10 years are possible at the time of writing. Initial values at 1xCO
2
are supplied
by a longer 30-year MAECHAM5 run that has been conducted earlier.
The rest of this study is organized as follows:
In section 2, the GCM employed in the integrations, MAECHAM5, which
in contrast to MAECHAM4 is able to generate a relatively realistic QBO, is
introduced.
Section 3 outlines how the boundary conditions and initial values are con-
structed from the Control experiment, the AMIP2 boundary conditions, and
the CMIP experiments.
Section 4 gives a brief overview of the Control experiment which has been
conducted prior to this work.
In section 5, the first experiment under doubled CO
2
climate conditions with
unaltered gravity wave parameters is presented. This run is used to estimate
changes in the strength of parameterized gravity waves under doubled carbon
dioxide climate conditions and serves as a baseline for the later sensitivity ex-
periments.
In section 6, the second and third experiments with adjustments in param-
eterized gravity wave amplitude are presented.
Section 7 concludes this thesis by discussing the present results and putting
them in the larger context of other QBO model sensitivity experiments.
13
14
2 The MAECHAM5 General Circulation Model
2.1 The ECHAM lineage
Figure 5: The ECHAM model family of ECHAM, MAECHAM, and HAM-
MONIA and the effects taken into account by these models. HAMMONIA
(HAMburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere, and also Latin for
’Hamburg’) is a version of MAECHAM5 that extends up to 250 km height and
is coupled to the MOZART3 (Brasseur et al. 1998) chemistry model.
The ECHAM (for European Centre / Hamburg) family of models were
jointly developed from a 1988 version of the European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) NWP model by the Max Planck Institute
for Meteorology and the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg.
Changes with regard to the ECMWF mostly concern the parameterizations,
making the model more useful for climate modelling, and in the addition of
cloud water species q
i
as prognostic variables. Other prognostic variables are
vorticity ζ, divergence D, temperature T, logarithmic surface pressure ln p
s
and
specific moisture q.
Horizontally, ECHAM, employing the spectral transform method, uses spher-
ical harmonics up to the limits given by triangular truncation. In the exper-
iments conducted for this study it is used at a horizontal resolution of T42,
corresponding to 128 by 64 grid-points in the treatment of physical and non-
linear dynamical tendencies, where the latitudinal positions of the grid points
are the corresponding Gaussian latitudes.
Vertically, a second-order finite differencing scheme is used, with the coor-
dinates following the terrain (σ-coordinate) for the lower layers, pressure levels
for the higher layers, and with the layers in between taking on a hybrid form.
For the 90-layer (L90) middle atmosphere version of ECHAM, this means that
for the 91 half-levels between the layers the bottom three half-levels are purely
σ-coordinate and the top 55 half-levels are purely pressure coordinate, with the
transition from hybrid levels to p-levels occurring at a height of about 50 hPa
in the lower stratosphere. The relationship between level number and height as
well as layer thickness is shown in Figure 6.
The time integration follows a filtered semi-implicit leap frog scheme with
a timestep of (in the default configuration) 24 minutes for dynamics, whereas
the radiation timestep is two hours. In the experiments considered here, the
timestep for dynamics has to be decreased to 15 minutes. An Asselin time filter
is used to suppress computational artifacts.
This work makes use of MAECHAM5, the successor of MAECHAM4. Im-
provements in ECHAM5 over ECHAM4 include the parameterizations of radia-
tion, surface fluxes, and cloud physics. This set of changes as well as the Hines
scheme for parameterized gravity wave drag is responsible for MAECHAM5’s
ability to simulate a QBO as opposed to MAECHAM4.
Figure 6: Vertical coordinate system absolute heights and half-level distances,
showing the differences between the 39-layer (blue) and the 90-layer (red) ver-
sions of ECHAM. In the 90-layer case, layer thickness stays well below 1 km up
to about 40 km height.
16
2.2 Modifications for middle atmosphere modelling
The differences between the conventional, tropospheric configuration of ECHAM
and the middle atmosphere configuration MAECHAM (see Figure 5) are twofold:
Firstly, the model top moves up from 10 hPa in the 19-layer version to 0.01 hPa
in the 90-layer model and higher vertical resolutions are employed, for exam-
ple L90 in the experiments considered here. Secondly, the parameterization for
wave drag by gravity waves (Manzini et al. 1997) is vital for the accurate sim-
ulation of the stratosphere and mesosphere and can thus not be neglected as in
the tropospheric runs that only extend vertically into the lower stratosphere.
2.3 Model equations
As stated by the ECHAM5 documentation, the underlying model equations in
z-coordinate form are
dv
h
dt
= −
1
ρ

h
p −2(Ω×v
h
)
h

1
ρ
∂J
v
h
∂z
+ K
v
h
dT
dt
=
R
d
T
v
pC
p
dp
dt
+
1
C
p
¸
Q
R
+ Q
L
+ Q
D

1
ρ

∂J
s
∂z
−C
pd
T(δ −1)
∂J
q
v
∂z

+ K
T
dq
v
dt
= S
q
v

1
ρ
∂J
q
v
∂z
dq
w
dt
= S
q
w

1
ρ
∂J
q
w
∂z
p = ρR
d
T
v
∂p
∂z
= −ρg
with the virtual temperature
T
v
= T
¸
1 +

1

−1

q
v

.
The final equations result from transitioning from the z-coordinate system to
hybrid coordinates, rewriting of adiabatic terms for spherical coordinates and
use of spherical normal modes to represent the fields horizontally during the
spectral representation part of the transform method.
2.4 Parameterizations related to the QBO forcing
Deep convection is parameterized following Tiedtke (1989) with improve-
ments by Nordeng (1994). Basically, Tiedtke relates organized entrainment
at the cloud-base to large-scale horizontal moisture convergence. Nordeng, on
the other hand, uses vertical parcel acceleration as given by Convectively Avail-
17
able Potential Energy (CAPE). Convection is assumed to reduce CAPE values
exponentially with an associated resolution-dependent timescale τ
CAPE
.
Momentum flux deposition by a spectrum of gravity waves is modeled
using the Doppler spread parameterization by Hines (1997a,b). At some launch-
ing height, a horizontal wind vertical wavenumber spectrum is prescribed that
is zero for m (the vertical wavenumber) larger than a cutoff wavenumber, m
c
.
When the waves travel upward, decreasing density causes the total wind caused
by them, u
RMS
, to increase until it reaches the horizontal phase speed of waves
that have the cutoff wavenumber. At this point, nonlinear interaction between
the gravity waves of different wavenumbers sets in, which causes the spectrum
to extend beyond m
c
, and finally beyond m
m
, a wavenumber that is marked by
total dissipation of waves with higher wavenumbers.
This parameterization is somewhat complicated in the presence of mean
background winds, as the Doppler-spreading of the launching height spectra
must be accounted for. This is done by separating the spectra into azimuthal
components and summing their contributions to momentum flux at a given
height.
A comprehensive overview of this and other parameterizations for momen-
tum flux deposition is given in McLandress (1998).
18
3 Experimental setup
The basic setups cover the following three areas: QBO-Control experiment, the
CMIP experiments used to arrive at boundary conditions for the doubled car-
bon dioxide climate, and the QBO experiments under the changed climate con-
ditions. The setups and experiments are (with the names of the experimenters
given in parentheses):
1. CONTROL (Run159, Giorgetta): MAECHAM 5.1.04, resolution T42, 90
layers, present-day climate conditions, run length 30 years
2. CMIP (Roeckner, Esch): MAECHAM 5.0.10, resolution T42, 19 layers,
coupled transient Global Warming experiment (1% CO
2
concentration
increase per year, no solar variability, volcano eruptions, or increase in
aerosol concentration). The ocean model in the CMIP experiments is
MPI-OM1 (formerly called C-HOPE), resolution 128*208 grid points (see
Figure 7), 23 vertical layers.
Figure 7: The MPI-OM1 coordinate grid with increased equatorial resolution
and a polar axis tilted so that the northern pole of the grid lies above Greenland.
(a) CMIP1CO2 (Roeckner, Esch): 500-year control integration with 1990
CO
2
concentration prescribed.
(b) TRANSIENT (Roeckner, Esch): Transient integration with 1% CO
2
concentration increase per year, conducted up to about four times
the starting level of concentration.
19
(c) CMIP2CO2 (Roeckner, Esch): 150-year integration with constant
double CO
2
concentration, started from the transient CMIP run at
its 90th year.
3. QBO2CO2 (Doege, Giorgetta): MAECHAM 5.1.04, resolution T42, 90
layers, doubled CO
2
climate conditions, sea surface temperature (SST),
sea ice climatology, and initial conditions derived from the difference of
the CMIP1CO2 and CMIP2CO2 runs plus the AMIP2 climatology (SST,
SIC) or CONTROL run monthly means (all other variables)
The relationship between the CMIP experiments is shown schematically in
Figure 8. CMIP1CO2 is the Control CMIP experiment with “present-day”
(348 ppmv) CO
2
concentration. At some year, the TRANSIENT experiment is
started with an CO
2
atmospheric concentration increase of 1% per year. After
about 70 years, when the concentration has doubled (year zero in Figure 8), a
time slice run is started (CMIP2CO2) which is representative of the doubled CO
2
climate as simulated by MAECHAM5. This enables to consider monthly means
for several decades instead of just the narrow timeframe when the TRANSIENT
run has about the right CO
2
concentration. Moreover, it allows to study how
the climate reaches equilibrium after the CO
2
increase has stopped and what
the intrinsic fluctuations driven by oceanic response are.
SST, ice, atm.
CMIP1CO2
CMIP2CO2
TRANSIENT
0
1
2
3
−20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
A
t
m
o
s
p
h
e
r
i
c

c
a
r
b
o
n

d
i
o
x
i
d
e

[
3
4
8

p
p
m
v
]
Years
Figure 8: Schematic overview of the CMIP experiments.
All climatological boundary fields for the QBO2CO2 run are obtained by
adding the 20-year mean changes between the CMIP2CO2 and CMIP1CO2
SST and sea ice to the SST and sea ice fields of the AMIP2 climatology as used
in the Control experiment.
20
The spectral and grid-point initial conditions are prepared by adding the
average climate change from 20-year periods of the CMIP1CO2 and CMIP2CO2
runs to CONTROL run monthly mean data, yielding mean fields for the first
month to be integrated, which are then vertically interpolated from 19 to 90
layers.
3.1 Climatological boundary conditions for SST and sea
ice cover
In the CONTROL experiment, the lower boundary conditions are supplied by
the AMIP2 climatology. This climatology is distributed by Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory as part of its Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project
to ensure realistic and comparable forcing of the GCMs participating in this
effort. It specifies monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice cover that are
the time mean of an observational dataset spanning the time period from 1956
to 2000. In the GCM, these monthly values are then linearly interpolated for
each day.
In contrast to AMIP1, where simply the monthly mean values were used as
the climatology, AMIP2 boundary conditions are modified in such a way that
the averages of all the daily values are equal to the observed time averages,
which would not be the case if simply the observed averages themselves were
used. One can retrieve the observational data from the climatology by
O
t
=
1
8

C
t−1
+ 6C
t
+ C
t+1

where O
t
is the time-mean observational data for month t and C
t
, C
t−1
, and
C
t+1
are the climatological fields for month t and its preceding and following
months, respectively (Taylor et al. 2000). In MAECHAM5 the data is interpo-
lated first in time, and then only sea ice cover values between 0% and 100% are
retained: If the computed value is larger than 100% it is set to 100%, if it is
smaller than 1% it is set to 0%.
Figure 9 displays AMIP2 climatological SST and sea ice cover for annual
mean, DJF, and JJA conditions. Sea surface temperature is dominated by a
large maximum that extends from the Indian Ocean to Indonesia to the Western
Pacific. Particularly in the Indonesian region, northward and southward shifts
of the maximum during the course of the year are apparent. In the central
Pacific, temperatures do not change much, while there is another temperature
maximum west of Mexico and in the Gulf of Mexico. Especially in the Gulf and
beyond, temperatures rise strongly during the NH summer.
The contour levels for sea ice cover have been chosen because the 15% con-
21
Figure 9: AMIP2 climatological SST (

C, shaded) and 90% (solid) and 15%
(dashed) contours of sea ice cover for (a) annual mean, (b) December to Febru-
ary, and (c) June to August conditions.
22
tour is taken to define sea ice extent (Gloersen 1992), while the 90% contour
prominently shows the annual cycle: The Arctic maximum broadens during NH
winter, so that 90% sea ice concentration is reached at the northern edge of the
Eurasian and North American continents. In the Antarctic, high variability is
located in the Ross and Weddell Seas. There an almost continuous ice shield
can be found during the SH winter season. The yearly cycle of sea ice extent (as
opposed to area) is depicted in Figure 10. In comparison to other observational
data sources (Gloersen and Campbell 1988), the values are somewhat too large,
especially the maximum Arctic sea ice extent in spring.
The CMIP1CO2 experiment starts at January, 1st 1978 with initialization
taken from the reanalysis data for that day, but with a CO
2
level of 348 ppmv
prescribed. It needs to be kept in mind that model evolution in the CMIP ex-
periments does not represent an approximation of the past or future states of
the real atmosphere. Instead, the CMIP runs should be regarded a GCM sen-
sitivity studies without a direct relationship to current state-of-the-art global
warming experiments. All the same, model years are given here for easier refer-
ence. The transient CMIP experiment branches of from the control experiment
after 90 years (model year 2068), and after the 70 years it takes CO
2
to dou-
ble, CMIP2CO2 is started (model year 2138). For the extraction of boundary
conditions, the periods 2010 to 2029 and 2140 to 2159 were selected from the
CMIP1CO2 and CMIP2CO2 runs, respectively.
A comparison of real and simulated climate can be drawn from Figures 9 and
11. The most obvious problem in simulated SST is the equatorial “cold tongue”
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
month
0
10
20
30
s
e
a

i
c
e

e
x
t
e
n
t

[
m
i
l
l
i
o
n

k
m
²
]
NH+SH
NH
SH
Figure 10: Monthly mean sea ice extent from the AMIP2 climatology for the
entire globe as well as for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere separately.
23
Figure 11: As in Figure 9 but for the 2010-2029 period of the CMIP1CO2 run.
24
Figure 12: As in Figure 9 but for the 2140-2159 period of the CMIP2CO2 run.
25
in the Eastern Pacific. Temperatures are also too high in the Indonesian region
and off the western coast of Mexico with the greatest differences in the latter
place occurring during NH summer. Sea ice cover is simulated in agreement
with AMIP2 dataset, with the exception of sea ice concentration in the Arctic
dropping too low in NH summer, so that no 90% isoline is visible there in Figure
11.
Another difference between the AMIP2 and CMIP runs concerns model
setup: The land sea masks differ in some regions with complex land-sea dis-
tributions. The largest differences are located in the Indonesian region where
the CMIP land sea mask defines far more land points than the AMIP2 LSM. It
is therefore necessary to interpolate / extrapolate the SST for these points.
As shown in Figure 13, all missing points are either singular points or lie
on straight lines. Therefore higher order interpolation did not seem necessary.
Instead, a simple iterative interpolation method was employed: On each step,
the value of an as of yet undefined point is assigned the interpolated average of
its adjacent points to the North, South, East, and West, if at least two of these
points are either defined in the original data or have been calculated in one of
the previous iterations.
This scheme is repeated until no more points can be added. Then it is
repeated for points with only one neighbor, which then obviously assume the
temperature of that very neighbor. This simple procedure (a two-dimensional
cellular automaton, see Packard and Wolfram 1985) gives sufficiently smooth
interpolated fields for change of SST. Of the 126 points that need values supplied
to them, 121 are covered by the algorithm. The five remaining points (two
in Canada, two in the Persian Gulf, and one in the Baltic Sea) are assigned
manually to nearby values, for instance the two points in the Persian Gulf take
Figure 13: Differences between the AMIP2 (grey) and CMIP (red) land sea
masks. For the red points, SST must be interpolated.
26
on the SST of a point at the exit of the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman.
In the CMIP2CO2 experiment (Figure 12), SST increases in the tropics by
about 2

C, while the temperature patterns stay more or less the same. For a
closer look, the average differences between the CMIP1CO2 and CMIP2CO2
runs are depicted in Figure 14. SST increases almost everywhere with a maxi-
mum in the Barents Sea, where there is also the largest decrease in sea ice cover
under both DJF and JJA conditions. Other maxima of this kind are situated
in the Denmark Strait north of Iceland and the Okhotsk Sea.
Maximum tropical warming occurs in the equatorial Pacific between Indone-
sia and Middle America, exceeding 3

C in Indonesia. However, warming in this
region is not uniform, notably temperatures in the South China Sea between
Malaysia and Vietnam just increase by 1 to 1.5

C. In the Southern Pacific at
around 60

southern latitude and in the North Atlantic there are large areas
where the temperature anomaly does not pass a two-sided t test at the 5% level,
so the SST tendency there remains unclear.
Sea ice cover decreases between the 1xCO
2
and 2xCO
2
climates on both
hemispheres (Figure 15). This is also evident when comparing the AMIP2 and
the doubled carbon dioxide climatology for sea ice under doubled CO
2
conditions
(Figure 16), which show a clear decrease in sea ice cover, particularly in the
Atlantic.
When constructing the climatology for doubled CO
2
conditions, a few ad-
ditional steps have to be taken for the SST data: Firstly, the differences in
land-sea mask are accounted for by the method described above. Secondly, 9-
point-smoothing as described in the GrADS documentation is employed twice to
reduce some of the unrealistic small-scale structures in the isolines, particularly
in the Pacific, where the model might react sensitively to local disturbances in
the SST field. Thirdly, the minimum SST is set to 271.38 K where it falls below
that value, mirroring the approach taken in the AMIP2 dataset.
These differences are added to the observational monthly means O
t
of the
AMIP2 dataset as determined from the formula given above. The adjusted
differences are then added to these fields, effectively transforming the AMIP2
dataset into a new, AMIP1-style climatology, because no backtransformation to
the C
t
s is done. This seems justified because of the relatively low amplitude and
smoothness of the seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific SST, as well as the relatively
insignificant role of sea ice in establishing tropical convection and precipitation
patterns.
Figure 17 shows the finished SST and sea ice cover climatologies. Maximum
SST can be found off the coast of New Guinea, while there is a noticeably cooler
region between Sumatra and Borneo. In the mid-latitudes, a major increase in
North Atlantic temperatures and an almost complete absence of sea ice south
27
Figure 14: Average differences between the CMIPCO2 runs for (a) annual mean,
(b) December to February, and (c) June to August conditions, with ∆SST
shaded and the −50% (solid) and −25% (dashed) contours of ∆SIC. Blank
areas did not pass a t test at the 5% level.
28
of Spitsbergen can be observed.
3.2 Initial conditions
In order to reduce the spinup time that the model needs to adapt to its bound-
ary conditions and produce a stable climate, the atmospheric restart fields are
treated similarly, that is the average 20-year difference between two Januaries
in the CMIP experiments is added to the December 2019 restart file from the
CONTROL run. Since the CMIP runs only had a vertical resolution of 19 layers,
linear interpolation to 90 layers is used, with differences regarded as constant
above the 19-layer top level of 1 hPa.
Figure 18 shows the zonal mean temperature and zonal wind for the CON-
TROL run restart file (a), the resulting 2xCO
2
restart file, as well as their
difference. Since these fields just represent a snapshot of the model at its first
timestep, they can only be seen as an approximation to the differences between
the 1xCO
2
and 2xCO
2
climates. This is exemplified by the apparent triple jet
in (c), which in all likeliness is an artifact. However, the contrasting temper-
ature changes of a warming troposphere versus a cooling stratosphere seem in
accordance with prior knowledge of atmospheric behavior under global warming
conditions.
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
month
0
10
20
30
s
e
a

i
c
e

e
x
t
e
n
t

[
m
i
l
l
i
o
n

k
m
²
]
AMIP
CMIP1CO2
CMIP2CO2
Figure 15: Monthly sea ice extent from the two CMIP runs in comparison to
the AMIP2 climatology.
29
Figure 16: Decrease in sea ice cover between the AMIP2 climatology and
the modified 2xCO
2
climatology: Annual mean 75% sea ice cover for AMIP2
(shaded) and 2xCO
2
(black contour line) for the northern (top) and southern
(bottom) hemisphere.
30
Figure 17: Resulting climatology for SST and sea ice cover as derived from
the CMIP1CO2 and CMIP2CO2 runs: SST (

C, shaded) and 90% (solid) and
15% (dashed) contours of sea ice cover for (a) annual-mean, (b) December to
February, and (c) June to August conditions.
31
Figure 18: Zonal mean zonal wind (m/s, black contours) and tempera-
ture (K) for experiments (a) QBO, (b) QBO2CO2, and (c) their difference,
QBO2CO2−QBO.
32
4 The Control experiment
The Control run is an extension of the 17 year L90 experiment documented in
Giorgetta et al. (2002). It was conducted before this body of work by M. A.
Giorgetta as part of the ongoing effort to modify MAECHAM5 in such a way
that the simulated QBO is as realistic as possible. The integration spans 30
years under the normal (i.e. AMIP2) climate conditions for SST and sea ice
and is started from an atmospheric state without a QBO.
In Figure 19, zonal wind for the ten year period that is covered in Giorgetta
et al. (2002) is shown (neglecting the seven-year spinup time), while in Figure
20 the entire 30 year period of the extended run is contoured.
After an initial phase of irregular wind patterns in the Hovm¨oller diagram,
a regular QBO with a period of about 32 months sets in. The QBO signal does
not reach the tropical tropopause but is strongly dampened around 70 hPa. The
westerlies have an amplitude of about 15 m/s, while the easterlies exceed 30 m/s
in amplitude above 20 hPa. The model simulations also feature a considerably
smoother QBO signal than the one in the observational record, as even at a
90-layer resolution, the complexity, particularly of the westerly wind maxima,
cannot be entirely duplicated.
Forcing by resolved waves (Figure 21a) is strong above 3 hPa. Between 3
and 10 hPa parameterized gravity waves (Figure 21b) effect most of the westerly
acceleration while contributing somewhat less to easterly acceleration. Below
10 hPa, the forcing by resolved and unresolved waves at the zero wind con-
tours mostly matches the acceleration needed to drive the QBO wind pattern.
Examples of resolved waves accelerating the wind in the opposite direction are
sporadic and are mostly located around 20 hPa.
Figure 19: Monthly and zonal mean zonal wind (m/s) at the equator in Exper-
iment L90 (from Giorgetta et al. 2002).
33
Figure 20: Monthly mean time-height section of zonal mean zonal equatorial
wind in m/s for the Control run, the extension of the L90 experiment.
Figure 21: Monthly and zonal mean tendency of zonal wind in ms
−1
d
−1
at the
equator by resolved waves (a) and by parameterized gravity wave dissipation
(b). The zero contour of the zonal mean wind is shown in black (from Giorgetta
et al. 2002).
34
To illustrate how the forcing of the QBO propagates upwards from the trop-
ical tropopause, the absolute single-zonal-wavenumber contribution to the tem-
perature field for waves with zonal wavenumber two is shown in Figure 22. Over
the course of the sixty days from the run depicted here, two such events where
strong wave excitation causes wave trains to travel into the lower stratosphere
can be seen. In the region of strong easterly shear at and above 30 hPa the
waves become quickly attenuated because their phase speeds are easterly.
Some of the remaining challenges surrounding the accurate simulation of the
QBO by MAECHAM5 are quite evident in the Control experiment in compar-
ison to the observed QBO, namely the period, which at 32 months is about
four months too long, and the failure of the QBO signal to reach the tropical
tropopause. Other sensitivity experiments outside the scope of this study will
have to be conducted to identify the reasons for these shortcomings and improve
the realism of the QBO as simulated in MAECHAM5.
Figure 22: Individual wave trains emanating from the tropical tropopause vi-
sualized as the absolute daily mean temperature anomaly caused by the k = 2
wave averaged between 5

N and 5

S. Upward-propagating Rossby-gravity waves
are absorbed in a strong easterly shear around 30 hPa.
35
5 Run001 results
In this first experiment, the model was run with the initial values as well as SST
and sea ice climatologies for the 2xCO
2
conditions over an eleven-year period
and parameterized gravity wave forcing was left unmodified. This experiment
allows to assess the changes in model parameters necessary to complete the
transition from the 1xCO
2
to the 2xCO
2
climate and serves to test whether the
model will reach a stable climate from the initial values and under the imposed
boundary conditions.
5.1 Zonal mean zonal wind
As Figure 23 shows, after about two years where there is a hint of a descending
easterly QBO phase, a two-to-three-year oscillation with easterly and westerly
phases that remain more or less fixed in height sets in. The cycle starts with
easterlies becoming westerlies at around 50 hPa, followed about three months
later by an intensification of easterlies between 10 and 20 hPa. Between 80
and 90 hPa there is another easterly phase that shows little temporal variation,
while between 100 and 300 hPa, there are prominent super-rotating westerlies
at a speed of about 5 m/s.
Close to the end of the model integration time (year 10/11), there is an
instance of descending easterlies and westerlies that look vaguely like the QBO
of the control experiment. However, downward movement stops at about 50 hPa
(the level of the time-mean westerly jet), and more importantly, another two
years of model integration time showed that this QBO cycle was in all likeliness
an episodic event—perhaps caused by an overly intensive generation of resolved
equatorial waves by the model in comparison to other years—and not a sign of
the model climate transitioning to a new regime.
If the zonal mean zonal wind minus the annual mean zonal mean zonal wind
is considered (Figure 24), it becomes apparent that downward propagation of
the QBO signal also takes place in this experiment, even though a systematic
shift of the vertical wind profile masks this propagation somewhat in the zonal
mean zonal wind. This figure shows a westerly jet between 1 and 10 hPa, from
which westerly QBO phases descend at fairly regular intervals. Prompted by
the absorption of westerly wave momentum, easterly wind maxima develop, e.g.
in spring of years 6, 8, and 10. It is beyond the aim of this study to ascertain
the cause of this mean wind shift and its disappearance in later experiments.
The differences between the QBO in Control and the QBO in Run001 can
be shown in a wavelet power spectrum of 48.13 hPa zonal wind. Wavelets are
a technique similar to windowed Fourier spectra in that they show how the
frequency distribution of variance of a time series changes over time (Torrence
37
Figure 23: Run001 monthly mean zonal mean equatorial zonal wind in m/s. A
regular QBO does not develop, instead there a layers of fluctuating westerlies
and easterlies at and below 50 hPa and only sporadic downward propagation of
westerlies between 10 and 20 hPa.
Figure 24: As in Figure 23 but with the annual mean zonal mean values for
each level removed.
38
and Compo 1998). In contrast to the Fourier transform, the wavelet transform
however uses basis functions (so-called “mother wavelets”) that are localized in
time. This makes it possible to investigate non-steady spectra with decidedly
non-sinusoidal basis functions.
In practice, the time series is first zero-padded so that its length is an integer
power of two and then Fourier-transformed. The mother wavelet is scaled for the
particular frequency (and is then called a daughter wavelet) and also Fourier-
transformed, and the wavelet transformation is computed as the convolution of
the two transforms. When the point where the wavelet is centered on is so close
to one of the ends of the data set that the wavelet has nonzero amplitude beyond
the confines of the time series, this point is said to be in the “cone of influence”,
where spectral power is diminished due to the influence of the zero-padding
region. This area is usually indicated in wavelet power spectra by hatching.
The mother wavelet used here is the Morlet wavelet (shown on the top right
in Figure 25), because it is the product of a sine and a Gaussian that can
represent slowly varying sinusoidal components like those likely to be found
both in the QBO signal, and annual and semiannual components that result
from the seasonal cycle.
Figure 25: Wavelet power spectrum for the Control experiment 48.13 hPa zonal
mean zonal wind monthly means.
Both for the Control (Figure 25b) and Run001 (Figure 26b) experiments,
39
there is a maximum of power in the QBO frequency range (26-30 months). But
Run001 also has additional power over all frequencies in the cone of influence
at the beginning of the time series due to initial tendencies, visible in the time
series (Figure 26a) itself as an almost linear decrease from 13 m/s to −8 m/s
during the first year of the experiment. Naturally, this linear shape requires
many daughter wavelets of different periods to be represented accurately, thus
accounting for the broad spectral peak. This first year is the period of initial
adjustment where the model has not reached a balanced climate state. Thus,
the first year of integration time is disregarded and only the ensuing ten years
are considered in the following analyses.
Another interesting difference is found in between the contributions of annual
and semi-annual components in the two experiments: In Control, there is a
period component of about 1.5 years that is almost continually present, while
at a period of 0.5 years there is very little power. In Run001, there is very
little variability on the 1.5 year time scale, while the semiannual component is
much more prominent, even though intermittent over time. This latter point
can also be inferred from the global wavelet spectrum of Run001 (i.e. the sum
over time of the power spectrum, Figures 25c, 26c), which shows a pronounced
secondary maximum at a period of 0.5 years for the Run001 experiment which
Figure 26: As in Figure 25 but for the Run001 experiment.
40
is not present in the Control experiment.
Finally, from looking at the QBO-induced maximum in variance, it seems
that the maximum power in this frequency range is reached toward the end of
the run for experiment Run001—the maximum in power lies close to the edge of
the trailing cone of influence. This is also visible in the time series (Figure 26a),
which shows an increase in the 2-year component amplitude. For Control, it is
somewhat similar, maxima are reached around the years 12, 20 and 30. This
suggests that the QBO in MAECHAM5 does have some decadal variability
beyond the spinup phase. Of course, the length of the conducted experiments
do not suffice to investigate this point quantitatively.
5.2 Residual circulation and forcing by resolved waves
To study the forcing of the mean zonal wind by resolved waves and their inter-
action with the zonal mean circulation, a Transformed Eulerian Mean analysis
(Figure 27, see Appendix A) is carried out for three OND (October-December)
time periods in which the 50 hPa westerly jets are intensifying. The TEM anal-
ysis shows that the z-divergence of the vertical Eliassen-Palm flux component
(Figure 27e) plays a major role in supporting both the 50 hPa westerly and the
15 hPa easterly jets. The y-divergence of horizontal E-P flux (Figure 27d) on
the other hand counteracts the jets and seeks to reverse them.
The thermal wind relationship requires that downward (upward) movement
sets in in westerly (easterly) shear to raise (lower) temperature by adiabatic
warming (cooling). Therefore, a meridional circulation develops that transports
momentum downward out of the westerly jets, as can be seen in the v

and
w

residual circulation (Figure 27c) . The figure also indicates an off-equatorial
closing of the secondary circulation. As a final observation, the forcings are
clearly not symmetrical about the equator, resulting in small meridional shifts
of the QBO jets also found in observations.
Tropical upwelling, i.e. the tropical branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation,
is caused in the mid-latitude stratosphere by the breaking of planetary waves
from the winter hemisphere that induces descent of air in the mid-latitudes and
an associated ascent dictated by continuity in the tropical stratosphere. Since
this upwelling causes individual air parcels (in the Lagrangian sense) to rise, the
QBO downward phase movement is hindered by a speedup of this background
motion.
For some time, this upwelling was disregarded in idealized QBO simulations,
until it was pointed out by Dunkerton (1997) that considerably higher wave mo-
mentum deposition was needed to achieve the observed period of the QBO. As
the forcing by planetary waves in the mid-latitudes has supposedly changed (the
41
Figure 27: Forcings of ∂u/∂t in cm/(sd) averaged over the NH winters of years
2/3, 4/5, and 7/8: (a) advection by v

, (b) advection by w

, (c) total advection
by residual circulation, (d) y -divergence of F
y
, (e) z -divergence of F
z
, and
(f) total E-P flux divergence. Selected contours of zonal mean zonal wind are
drawn in blue.
42
Lorenz cycle will show this for the later experiments), the Brewer-Dobson circu-
lation is modified, probably accounting for the lack of downward propagation in
this experiment. Indeed the minimum value of upwelling (defined as the zonal
mean w

at 70 hPa averaged from 12

N to 12

S) increases from 0.1 mm/s in
the Control run to 0.14 mm/s in Run001.
(a)
(b)
Figure 28: Climatological atmospheric“tape recorder”signals for (a) the Control
experiment, (b) the Run001 experiment. Anomalous specific humidity in ppmv
with an approximate mean rate of ascent (black line).
Alternatively, upwelling can be inferred from the atmospheric tape recorder,
i.e. the anomalies of water vapor concentration between 10 and 90 hPa. A
climatological average for Run001 and the Control experiment is shown in Figure
28. It is apparent that the water vapor signal is somewhat higher-reaching in
the Run001 experiment than it is in the Control run, as the 0.1 and −0.1 ppmv
contours, which extend up to about 40 hPa in the Control experiment reach up
to about 25 hPa in Run001. This corresponds to a difference in height of about
3.5 km.
Changes of the seasonal pattern of water vapor anomalies at 90 hPa hint at
a modification of the source, i.e. the tropical tropopause. This makes it difficult
to draw a direct comparison and lets the residual circulation seem a better way
to characterize changes in tropical upwelling. However, the anomalies do show
an increase in vertical speed in November and December, when the maximum
of the anomaly travels upward to about 40 to 50 hPa, which is expected given
that the tropical upwelling is strongest in NH winter due to the enhanced mid-
latitude planetary wave driving (Rosenlof 1995). This is also the region where
the QBO signal comes to a standstill in this experiment.
An approximate visual assessment of the upwelling speed between two ar-
43
bitrary levels, 30 hPa and 70 hPa (see the black lines in the figure) yields a
span of 8.5 months and 8 months for the Control and Run001 experiments, re-
spectively. That is to say, from the perspective of the tape recorder analysis
differences in upwelling between the two experiments seem rather minor, even
though a shifting of the seasonal cycle is conspicuous in the diagram.
5.3 Derivation of the gravity wave RMS wind parameter
To assess the intensity of parameterized gravity wave generation that should
result from the altered climate conditions, convective precipitation means and
variances were considered. The important variable that determines gravity wave
generation by convective storms is vertical motion, since it is thought to be
the regions of upward and downward motion associated with the individual
convective cells impinging on a stably stratified layer above which are responsible
for the generation of gravity waves by convection (Fovell et al. 1992).
Numerical experiments have been conducted with mesoscale models of con-
vective storms (Alexander et al. 1995), verifying this theory, showing that indeed
gravity waves are generated at the trailing edge of the storm, because up- and
downdrafts are most intense there. Another possible mechanism in the presence
of high mean background winds is the so-called obstruction effect, where the
up- and downward currents block the mean flow similar to the way topography
does. Numerical experiments can show this behavior too when the background
flow becomes fast enough.
In ECHAM, the parameterization for convective precipitation will generate
relatively realistic variances of precipitation (Horinouchi et al. 2003), so that
convective precipitation variances can be taken as an indicator of up- and down-
draft intensity and thus gravity wave generation.
Horizontal fields of convective precipitation means for the Control and Run001
(Figure 29) experiments feature a considerable increase in maximum convective
precipitation in the Indonesian region. Panels a and c show how the maximum
to the northeast of New Guinea grows from 17 mm/d (Control) to 22 mm/d
(Run001). Another maximum centered southeast off the Philippines’ coast,
which is minor in Control, has similar amplitude as the New Guinea maximum
in Run001. But there are also decreases: The broad maximum in the Indian
Ocean flattens somewhat in the Run001 experiment with a corresponding loss
of amplitude.
The temporal variances from 12-hourly data (b, d) show even more dra-
matic shifts: While variance does rise markedly in the New Guinea maximum,
the variance peak near the Philippines (shifted northward in relation to the peak
in mean precipitation) more than doubles from 127 mm
2
/d
2
to 277 mm
2
/d
2
.
44
Similarly, the maximum over eastern India and in the Gulf of Bengals, which
had gained marginally in mean convective precipitation, shows a drastic increase
in variance as well, rivalling the Philippine maximum in magnitude. This en-
hancement is likely to be associated with an intensification of the variability of
precipitation associated with the Indian monsoon circulation. Another spot to
consider is the Andes region, where MAECHAM5 had already simulated large
variance in the Control experiment and even more in Run001.
All the precipitation variance hotspots lie in the latitudinal band between
10

N and S where upward-propagating gravity waves are bound to affect the
QBO.
In the zonal average, convective precipitation increased by a factor of 1.1
for the grid points near the equator, while variance increased by approximately
a factor of 1.2. The Indonesian maximum in convective precipitation, both
in mean and variance, however, shows larger increases from the control run,
with precipitation variance increasing to about 2.2 times the value found in the
Control run.
An estimate of the factor that should be applied to the gravity wave pa-
rameterization was obtained by first binning grid-point convective precipitation
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 29: Convective precipitation means (a, c) and temporal variances (b, d)
for the Control (a, b) and Run001 (c, d) experiments. Units are mm/d and
mm
2
/d
2
, respectively. The annual cycle has been subtracted before computing
variance.
45
values in 30-degree latitude boxes between 75

N and 75

S. For these boxes,
the area-weighted 12-hourly data were considered. Then, means and variances
were computed for each box for the entire year as well as for the four seasons
individually (Figure 30).
The amplification factor for the parameterization is then defined as
α =

σ
2
Run001
σ
2
Control
where the σ
2
are the convective precipitation variances suitably averaged over
the five latitude boxes. Table 1 shows α
2
and α for the individual latitude
bins. In all bins, variance increases significantly (at the 5% level) except for the
southernmost one, where the opposite is true. Neglecting the outer two bins, a
value of α = 1.2 ±0.1 seems plausible.
Other ways of determining the factor were investigated as well: If one divides
spectral power, for example as obtained from a periodogram of power versus
wavenumber, for a quantity such as temperature or wind for the Run001 exper-
iment by the Control experiment value, one can see how the variance for each
wavenumber increases when doubling CO
2
. If some sort of power law exists that
couples resolved scales to unresolved scales of gravity waves and this increase is
(a)
75°N-45°N 45°N-15°N 15°N-15°S 15°S-45°S 45°S-75°S
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
m
m
/d
MEAN
MAM
JJA
SON
DJF
Control run convective precipitation mean
(b)
75°N-45°N 45°N-15°N 15°N-15°S 15°S-45°S 45°S-75°S
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
m
m
/d
Run 001 convective precipitation mean
(c)
75°N-45°N 45°N-15°N 15°N-15°S 15°S-45°S 45°S-75°S
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
m
m
²
/d
²
Control run convective precipitation variance
(d)
75°N-45°N 45°N-15°N 15°N-15°S 15°S-45°S 45°S-75°S
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
m
m
²
/d
²
Run 001 convective precipitation variance
Figure 30: Zonally averaged precipitation means (a, b) and variances (c, d) for
Control run (a, c) and Run001 (b, d).
46
almost the same for all wavenumbers, it is conceivable that the unresolved wave
power should be raised accordingly.
This analysis was carried out for temperature (Figure 31) and meridional
wind (Figure 32) at 200 hPa (above the region where gravity waves are gen-
erated) using the same latitude boxes as in the precipitation method. The
computed relative spectra should be compared to the above values for α
2
.
The spectrum for temperature shows a remarkably flat increase for the equa-
torial box, resulting in about a factor of 1.3 for the higher wavenumbers. The
latitude bands next to the central one seem to indicate a factor of about 1.2.
The increases in meridional wind variance are quite similar for the equatorial
and adjacent boxes, lying around 1.2. Notably, the northernmost and southern-
most bands deviate strongly, especially in the middle wavenumber range.
5.4 Summary of experiment Run001
While the Run001 experiment is only a first approximation of the QBO under
2xCO
2
climate conditions, it has nevertheless given several important insights
into effects that will have to be investigated in more detail later. For one,
the QBO does become unstable when changes in parameterized gravity wave
momentum deposition are not accounted for. Still, some form of downward
propagation of the QBO signal exists, even though it may only be visible when
the time-mean vertical profile of zonal wind is subtracted. Another thing is the
enhancement of the Brewer-Dobson circulation below about 50 hPa which is
related to increased forcing by resolved waves in the extratropical stratosphere.
Finally, tropical convective precipitation variances are a useful indicator of in-
ternal gravity wave generation by convection. The somewhat limited integration
time of 11 years, however, limits the accuracy of this method severely, putting
the increase in source strength between about 10 and 20%.
Considering all the estimates for α, the following experiments feature an
RMS gravity wave wind at the launching height that is increased to 110% and
120% of the Control experiment values. The first value represents the best
Latitude bin α
2
= σ
2
Run001

2
Control
α = σ
Run001

Control
75

N-45

N 1.34 1.16
45

N-15

N 1.37 1.17
15

N-15

S 1.69 1.30
15

S-45

S 1.12 1.06
45

S-75

S 0.82 0.91
Table 1: Annual mean convective precipitation variance (second column) and
standard deviation (third column) increases in regard to the CONTROL run
values for the five latitude bins.
47
0 10 20 30 40
wavenumber
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
75°N-45°N
45°N-15°N
15°N-15°S
15°S-45°S
45°S-75°S
Quotient of RUN001 and CONTROL periodograms for temperature (200 hPa)
Figure 31: Increase in spectral power between the Control and Run001 experi-
ments for 200 hPa temperature.
0 10 20 30 40
wavenumber
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
75°N-45°N
45°N-15°N
15°N-15°S
15°S-45°S
45°S-75°S
Quotient of RUN001 and CONTROL periodograms for meridional wind (200 hPa)
Figure 32: As in Figure 31 but for meridional wind.
48
guess, while the experiment associated with the second one shows if the changes
are linear and can provide help in assessing significance of the results of the
110% experiment. Furthermore, given the sizable standard deviation of the best
estimate, it is also conceivable that 120% the Control run value RMS gravity
wave wind is the more realistic setting.
49
6 Run002 and Run003 results
The analysis of the first experiment with unchanged specification of the source
strength of sub-grid scale gravity waves suggests a value of 1.2±0.1 for the ratio
of convective precipitation variances under 2xCO
2
and 1xCO
2
conditions. The
square root of this factor then is taken to be a good estimate for the increase
in sub-grid gravity wave forcing that should occur in the 2xCO
2
climate with
respect to the 1xCO
2
climate. Consequently, Run002 is conducted with 1.1 times
the gravity wave RMS wind and Run003 with 1.2 times the control experiment
value of 1 m/s.
Figure 33: Equatorial monthly mean zonal mean zonal wind in m/s for Run002
(top) and Run003 (bottom), with 1.1 and 1.2 times the RMS gravity wave wind
from Run001 to account for more intense convection under the doubled CO
2
climate conditions.
6.1 Zonal mean zonal wind
Since the model runs start from the same initial values, it makes sense to look
at the first years of the experiments and compare the varying effect of parame-
terized gravity waves on the QBO (Figure 33). This is particularly obvious for
the first phase of westerlies and easterlies moving downward: In Run002, both
51
phases halt at certain altitudes for a month or two, while in Run003 such a
halting at these levels is not apparent. These changes already signify that the
parameterized waves may be quite important. The shortening of the QBO cycle
between Run002 (six maxima of westerlies) and Run003 (eight maxima) is also
apparent in a side-by-side comparison.
Figure 34: Composite of equatorial zonal mean zonal wind for the Control
run. Individual panels show mean u [m/s] (top) and standard deviation [m/s]
(bottom) of the composited fields. Black contours of vanishing zonal mean
zonal wind are superimposed on the standard deviation for better comparison.
Composites start with winds getting westerly at 20.77 hPa.
The enhanced downward motion of QBO phases means that a fairly regular
oscillation is found in the Run003 experiment with an average period of 17
months at 20 hPa, as opposed to the 22 months and 34 months in the Run002
and Control experiments, respectively. This is made clear by the Run002 and
Run003 u-composites (Figures 35 and 36) in comparison to the u-composite for
Control (Figure 34), which not only show the quicker QBO cycle in the latter
experiments but also subtle differences in the downward progression: The slight
halting of the line of vanishing mean zonal wind at around 25 hPa, which was
quite conspicuous in the other experiments, has completely disappeared in the
Run003 experiment.
Between 30 and 70 hPa, the downward propagation speed of the flank of
westerlies does not change in relation to the Control experiment, all the increase
of the downward propagation of the westerlies is located between 10 and 30 hPa.
52
Figure 35: As in Figure 34 but for the Run002 experiment.
Figure 36: As in Figure 34 but for the Run003 experiment.
53
This is in marked contrast to the findings of Giorgetta et al. (2002), who stated
the ineffectiveness of gravity wave drag for the layers below 20 hPa. The contrary
is true for the flank of easterlies, which shows an accelerated downward motion
below 25 hPa and little change in downward propagation speed above that level.
A change in amplitude is difficult to ascertain from the zonal mean zonal
wind, but it is interesting to look at the standard deviation of the individual
samples used in the composite analysis (Figures 34 to 36). Here, the uncertainty
in the timing of the setting in of the ensuing (westerly) QBO cycle is apparent,
where Run002 looks considerably different from the other experiments with a
maximum in standard deviation before the winds becoming eastward at 10 hPa.
This shortening of the QBO period is consistent with the findings of Hamilton
et al. (2001), who used the GFDL SKYHI model, which simulates an equatorial
oscillation with a period of 12 months, to conduct sensitivity experiments with
raised and lowered SSTs. They added the term 2.5K(1 +cos θ), where θ is lati-
tude, to the control experiment SST. Even though they had to use a horizontal
resolution too low to generate a QBO, the model did produce a QLO, a “QBO-
like oscillation”, that had a shorter period in the “warm SST” case and a longer
period in the “cold SST” case, in relation to their control experiment outcome.
6.2 Forcing by resolved and parameterized waves
The forcing of QBO phases consists of E-P flux divergence by resolved waves
(RW) and parameterized momentum deposition by sub-grid scale gravity waves
(SGSGW). In Figures 37, 39, and 41, these forcings are shown (in m/s per
day) for the individual experiments as diagnosed from the TEM equations and
the MAECHAM5 SGSGW parameterization scheme. Furthermore, for each
experiment the composite SGSGW forcing is shown (Figures 38, 40, and 42)
to elucidate in particular the changes in vertical structure. Composites of the
resolved wave forcing did not provide significant insights because of the highly
erratic nature of the RW signal. Therefore, the time evolution of individual RW
forcing phase should be considered instead.
The figures show that resolved and unresolved waves contribute with about
similar strength to the QBO acceleration. The diagnosed RW forcing shows a
more variable pattern than the SGSGW forcing, which changes much smoother
over height. This smoothness is effected by the close coupling of the parame-
terization to the zonal wind, which means that the vertical wind shear largely
determines the SGSGW forcing and regions of little vertical wind shear experi-
ence only minor SGSGW forcing.
Particularly for westward acceleration in the QBO region, RW acceleration
is centered around the zero line of zonal wind, whereas the SGSGW forcing
54
Figure 37: Monthly mean momentum deposition above the equator by resolved
(top) and unresolved (bottom) waves in ms
−1
d
−1
for eleven years of the Control
experiment. The zero contour of zonal mean zonal wind is shown in black.
Figure 38: Composite of parameterized gravity wave forcing (top) and its stan-
dard deviation (bottom) for the Control experiment. The units are ms
−1
d
−1
and the composite contour of vanishing zonal mean zonal wind is drawn in black.
55
Figure 39: As in Figure 37 but for ten years of the Run002 experiment.
Figure 40: As in Figure 38 but for the Run002 experiment.
56
Figure 41: As in Figure 37 but for ten years of the Run003 experiment.
Figure 42: As in Figure 38 but for the Run003 experiment.
57
takes place mostly after the mean wind has changed direction. Changes in RW
forcing magnitude between Control and the other experiments are difficult to
quantify, although it seems that between about 10 and 20 hPa periods of extreme
forcing occupy a larger fraction of the total forcing at the shear zones. All in
all, however, RW variability is too high to allow confident conclusions about the
momentum deposition differences between 2xCO and 1xCO climates from such
short-duration experiments.
SGSGW forcing does increase as expected from the prescribed change in
parameterization. The intensity of this forcing also shows almost no dependence
on height, which is a stark contrast to the vertical gaps that can be seen be seen,
e.g. above 10 hPa in the Control run. Finally, the temporal breaks in downward
propagation of westerlies is due to RW forcing, which frequently counteracts the
setting in of the next phase at levels between 20 and 50 hPa. SGSGW forcing
on the other hand always contributes positively to the QBO cycle and to the
setting in of westerlies.
If the minimum and maximum SGSGW forcings for the three runs are com-
pared, it is interesting to note that the biggest changes involve forcing in the
westward direction (Figure 43), which even shows differences between Run002
and Run003. Between 50 and 100 hPa, a new band of major gravity wave forcing
seems to emerge, which can be seen to intensify in Run003.
Maximal eastward forcing does not look very dissimilar for the three experi-
ments, even though Run003 differs considerably from the other two experiments
between 10 and 30 hPa. Above 10 hPa, the Control experiment appears to ex-
hibit somewhat smaller values of forcing.
6.3 Vertical and meridional structure of the QBO
Interestingly, the acceleration of the QBO in MAECHAM5 is unevenly dis-
tributed on the phases, as the histograms for 20.77 hPa and 48.13 hPa (Figures
44 and 45) easterly and westerly phase durations clearly show. While at 20.77
hPa the length of the westerly phases decreases only slightly, it is the east-
erly phases that contribute almost exclusively to the decreased QBO periods in
Run002 and Run003, shortening from about 21 months to 8 to 10 months. In
the case of Run003, this drastic shortening of the easterly phases means that
the 20.77 hPa winds will tend to be in a westerly phase slightly more often than
in the easterly phase. This asymmetric behavior might be due to an increased
absorption of gravity waves with westerly phase speed in the region of intense
westerlies below the QBO domain.
At lower altitudes, at 48.13 hPa, it is the westerly phase which shows a
strong decrease in average duration, halving from about 24 months to 9 to 12
58
1
10
100
[hPa]
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2
Figure 43: Vertical profile of the minimum and maximum parameterized grav-
ity wave drag forcings for Control (black), Run002 (red), and Run003 (blue)
in ms
−1
d
−1
.
59
months. Not much can be said with certainty about the easterly phase, even
though it seems to shorten as well. The differences between Run002 and Run003
are difficult to assess, however, for these short experiment durations.
The shortening of the QBO cycle and the comparatively longer time spent
by the monthly mean zonal mean zonal wind in transitioning states also de-
creases the lag-1 autocorrelation in relationship to the Control experiment val-
ues at 20.77 and 48.13 hPa, although the decrease becomes more erratic with
decreasing height (Table 2). Closer to the tropical tropopause at 74.27 hPa, the
strengthening of sporadic westerlies reduces the autocorrelation even more.
Experiment 20.77 hPa 48.13 hPa 74.27 hPa
Control 0.97 0.96 0.82
Run001 0.95 0.85 0.37
Run002 0.94 0.91 0.36
Run003 0.91 0.86 0.48
Table 2: Lag-1 autocorrelations for monthly mean zonal mean zonal wind in all
experiments at three levels.
To investigate the meridional profile of the QBO, following the example of
Dunkerton and Delisi (1985), a harmonic analysis of the 30 hPa zonal mean zonal
wind is performed. For this, annual and semiannual components are subtracted
from the time series, and then the residual is fitted to a Gaussian of the form
u(φ) = a + b exp(−φ
2
/c
2
)
where φ is latitude. Between about 20

N and S the fit resembles well the
latitudinal structure of the QBO and the half-width of the function is then
φ
1/2
= c

log b −log(b/2 −a/2).
Table 3 lists the fitted parameter means and standard deviations.
Parameter Control Run002 Run003
a[m/s] 2.8±0.5 3.4±0.6 2±2
b[m/s] 17.9±0.4 16.3±0.6 22±2
c[

] 13.1±0.4 12.4±0.5 14±1
Table 3: Fitted Gaussian parameters for the QBO zonal wind signals in the
various experiments.
Half-widths for the individual experiments are (12.2 ± 0.4)

for the Con-
trol experiment, (12.0 ±0.6)

for the Run002 experiment, and (12.1 ±1.4)

for
the Run003 experiment. Evidently, the differences in mean are not significant,
which supports the view taken by Haynes (1998) that the QBO half-width de-
60
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
20.77 hPa westerly phase histogram for Control
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
20.77 hPa easterly phase histogram for Control
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
20.77 hPa westerly phase histogram for Run002
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
20.77 hPa easterly phase histogram for Run002
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
5
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
20.77 hPa westerly phase histogram for Run003
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
5
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
20.77 hPa easterly phase histogram for Run003
Figure 44: Histograms of QBO westerly (left column) and easterly (right col-
umn) phase durations in months at 20.77 hPa for the Control, Run002, and
Run003 experiments (rows). The data has been binned into three-month inter-
vals around multiples of three.
61
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
5
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
48.13 hPa westerly phase histogram for Control
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
5
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
48.13 hPa easterly phase histogram for Control
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
48.13 hPa westerly phase histogram for Run002
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
48.13 hPa easterly phase histogram for Run002
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
5
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
48.13 hPa westerly phase histogram for Run003
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
duration [months]
0
1
2
3
4
5
n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

e
v
e
n
t
s
48.13 hPa easterly phase histogram for Run003
Figure 45: As in Figure 44 but for a height of 48.13 hPa.
62
pends primarily on the Coriolis force and not so much on the width of the wave
excitation region. He reasons that the switch from the tropical response (ac-
celeration) and the extratropical response (steady state meridional circulation)
takes place at
φ
Trans
= (σ/α)
1/4
(ND/β)
1/2
,
where σ is the frequency of applied body force, α is radiative damping, N is
buoyancy frequency, D is the depth scale of the forcing, and β = ∂f/∂y|
equator
.
This equation is derived from the TEM equation for vertical motion. However,
the increase in standard deviation, particularly in the experiment with 1.2 times
the gravity wave RMS wind, is striking. It might be associated with barotropic
instability in this region. To verify this, following Hamilton et al. (2001), the
quantity
σ = β −u
yy
= f
y
−u
yy
where f is the Coriolis parameter 2Ωsin φ, with Ω being the angular frequency
of Earth rotation and the indices denoting partial derivatives, is plotted against
the u-contours. In Figure 46, this quantity normalized by β
equator
= 2Ω/a,
where a is the radius of Earth, is shown for the Run002 experiment at 29.08
hPa in a Hovm¨oller diagram.
The westerly QBO jet does indeed have regions of barotropically unstable
flow (σ < 0) close to the half-width latitudes, where lateral mixing of momentum
takes place. If the minimum σ for all the experiments at 30 hPa is considered,
the various experiments do not show significantly different values, but the re-
gions of barotropic instability near the QBO jet occur with higher frequency.
This quantity is defined here as the average number of grid points at 29.08
hPa between 30

N and 30

S that have barotropically unstable flow. While the
horizontal resolution is coarse and monthly averaging will suppress short-term
instable conditions, statistically significant numbers (in grid points / monthly
mean) can be established as 0.75±0.06 for Control, 1.2±0.1 for Run002, and
1.5±0.1 for Run003. So barotropic mixing does become more important in the
latter two experiments.
The values for upwelling (Figure 47), measured as the time-mean zonal mean
w

, do not change much between 10 hPa and 50 hPa but they show a clear
increase below 50 hPa. This is much more apparent in this quantity than in the
tape recorder climatology. This considerable strengthening of upwelling below
50 hPa explains why QBO downward movement stopped there in Run001.
63
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Figure 46: Non-dimensional barotropic instability parameter at 29.08 hPa for
the entire Run002 experiment. The zero contour is drawn in black. Negative
values indicate barotropically unstable conditions.
64
1
10
100
hPa
0 0.5 1 1.5
w* [mm/s]
Figure 47: Zonal mean equatorial w

(averaged between 10

N and 10

S) in
mm/s for Control (blue), Run002 (red), Run003 (green).
65
6.4 Extratropical effects
The extratropical influence of the QBO has been proposed originally by
Holton and Tan (1980) and relates the strength of the stratospheric winter
vortex and the QBO phase. It is found that the 40 hPa QBO wind speed is
related to the polar circulation in such a way that during the easterly phase, the
speed of the jet is decreased and the temperature in the jet region is maximal.
The geopotential is also lower during the easterly phase. The opposite is found
to be true for the westerly phase, and also for higher reference points in the
QBO at 20 hPa, where the effects are anti-correlated to the ones at 40 hPa.
This effect is most pronounced during NH winter, because the generation of
planetary waves is more intense there due to the distribution of land and sea
(and hence, surface temperature) that is less zonally symmetric than in the SH.
The Holton-Tan effect is commonly explained with critical lines, which are
the latitudes of vanishing zonal mean zonal wind. Rossby waves that are gen-
erated on the NH are reflected on this line if the QBO is easterly, so that they
stay in the NH and decelerate the mean flow there. If, on the other hand, the
QBO is westerly, they can extend beyond the equator and will not affect the NH
as much. Thus the QBO acts as a “valve” to the planetary waves that regulates
their momentum deposition in the polar stratosphere.
The Lorenz energy cycle separates between potential and kinetic energy of
the mean flow and the disturbances. An extension of the common Lorenz energy
cycle was calculated, which discerns between stationary and transient eddies,
and also gives, besides the total energy, a distribution of energy on three wave-
length ranges: Planetary (wavenumber 1 to 3), synoptic (wavenumber 4 to 9),
and short (wavenumber greater than 9) waves.
For the study of NH hemispheric planetary waves, variables of interest are
the kinetic energy of (A) the zonal mean flow, (B) the standing long waves, (C)
the transient long waves, and (D) the transient synoptic waves. Table 4 lists
the values of the reservoirs in 10
5
J/m
2
. The analysis was conducted for each
of ten years from each experiment and then averaged.
Quantity Control Run002 Run003
A 6.3±0.1 7.3±0.1 7.1±0.1
B 0.75±0.07 1.0±0.1 0.99±0.09
C 2.64±0.06 3.0±1.0 3.08±0.07
D 3.1±0.1 3.28±0.05 3.31±0.09
Table 4: NH Lorenz energy cycle components in 10
5
J/m
2
for Control, Run002,
and Run003 with standard deviations.
Because of the low number of ten samples and the positive definiteness of
the reservoirs, the distribution of the values was deemed to be too non-Gaussian
66
to ascertain significance with a conventional t-test. Instead, a Wilcoxon-Mann-
Whitney rank-sum significance test (Wilks 1995) was conducted. In it, the data
is sorted into a batch that comprises the two datasets to be compared, and
the asymmetry of the sum of ranks for one or the other set is compared to the
distribution of all possible combinations. For sample sizes larger than ten, this
distribution is almost Gaussian by the central limit theorem, but in this case
the null distribution was generated by a Monte Carlo resampling method.
Given a test level of 5%, none of the differences in the Lorenz variables
between Run002 and Run003 are significant. This is to be expected, since
planetary and synoptic waves are generated by regions of high horizontal tem-
perature contrasts and should not be affected much by the change in gravity
wave parameterization.
The differences between both the Control experiment and Run002 and be-
tween Control and Run003, on the other hand, are all statistically significant,
in that the Control run values are all significantly lower than the Run002 and
Run003 values. It is also interesting to note that the standard deviations of the
quantities A through C are almost the same for these two experiments.
It needs to be kept in mind that the Control experiment is three times longer
than the other two runs and that the NH winter circulation is quite variable.
For the verification of an extratropical influence of the accelerated QBO in a
doubled CO
2
climate, longer integration times are necessary to allow comparison
of the full 30 years of the Control experiment with the other two runs.
67
7 Summary and conclusion
Three experiments with MAECHAM5 under climate change, i.e. doubled CO
2
levels, were conducted to study the impact of man-made global warming on the
quasi-biennial oscillation, one of the major dynamical phenomena of the middle
atmosphere.
The first experiment used the changed boundary conditions and initial val-
ues obtained from the two coupled experiments, the AMIP2 data set, and the
Control run under present-day climate. This test experiment did not produce
the QBO which was not unexpected given that the additional momentum fluxes
by enhanced tropical convection were not accounted for in the parameterization
settings. Instead, waxing and waning winds at almost fixed levels were observed.
In particular, around 50 hPa there seemed to be a strong blocking of downward
motion of the QBO phase. However, close to the end of the run an event took
place that showed marked downward propagation, but this event was singular.
All in all, this run was the baseline used to estimate the effect of CO
2
dou-
bling on the excitation of equatorial gravity waves, which is prescribed in the
MAECHAM5 GCM. Several approaches can be utilized to arrive at the values
for this parameter: In this study, comparisons of convective precipitation vari-
ance and spectral variance in wind and temperature fields were considered. The
idea is that (given the ability of ECHAM to reproduce a precipitation variance
in good agreement with observational estimates in the tropics, see Horinouchi et
al. 2003) this variance coincides with convective system updraft velocity, which
is responsible for gravity wave generation by impinging on the stratified layer
above.
The other approach assumes that there is some sort of power law governing
the increase in variance over the wavenumbers. While long wave increase is
erratic and short wave increase near the truncation limit is modified by diffusion,
the central part of the spectrum did show a roughly constant and linear increase,
at least in the tropics.
Both these approaches suggested an amplification factor for variance of about
1.2, which translates to 1.1 ≈

1.2 m/s for the gravity wave RMS wind setting
of the MAECHAM5 Hines gravity wave momentum flux scheme. Both to assess
the linearity of response and because considerable uncertainty about the value
remained (with a high probability that the actual value should lie higher, for
various reasons), two runs were conducted, with 1.1 and 1.2 times the Control
run gravity wave RMS wind of 1 m/s at launching height.
Both of these experiments produced a QBO with considerably shorter peri-
ods. The forcing by resolved and unresolved waves was analyzed by the Trans-
formed Eulerian Mean formalism and an additional parameterization-only run
69
of the model on the prognostic variable output of the experiment. It became
clear that resolved waves played not only a role in QBO amplification / down-
ward propagation but also hindered the downward motion at times. The halting
levels were explained by the increase in mean residual vertical motion, i.e. the
tropical branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, as effected by momentum de-
position by planetary waves in the winter hemisphere stratosphere. This motion
lifts the whole QBO domain uniformly, necessitating increased wave driving to
achieve the same downward phase speed. While the changes below about 50
hPa were considerable, levels at higher altitudes showed only minor increases
and may also have been tainted by the QBO signal itself.
Parameterized waves played a considerable part in QBO forcing, as is also
observed in nature. Their forcing increased considerably between 1xCO
2
and
2xCO
2
climates, becoming more pronounced and occupying a larger domain
in the QBO region, as could be seen in composites of parameterized forcing.
The coverage of parameterized wave forcing, which has gaps in the Control
experiments, is continuous in the other runs. The importance of sub-grid scale
waves lies in the fact that their momentum is largely deposited in such a way
as to strengthen the QBO signal.
By compositing fields by QBO phase, additional features not apparent in the
plots of time evolution can be recognized, such as the differences in parameter-
ized gravity wave drag that include more intense forcing in lower layers and a
higher degree of vertical homogenization. Resolved wave momentum deposition
proves difficult to assess from the comparatively short model integration times.
A comparison of the vertical structure of the QBO shows that the period
shortening does not take place evenly over the entire vertical domain for west-
erlies and easterlies, respectively. In accordance with the time-mean vertical
QBO wind profile, easterly phases shorten at higher levels while westerlies are
responsible for much of the period shortening at lower levels.
The meridional structure of the QBO did not show significant differences
between 1xCO
2
and 2xCO
2
climates, supporting the view that the meridional
QBO length scale is primarily a consequence of the Coriolis force.
There are also indications of extratropical effects of the faster QBO, even
though the high natural variability of NH winter circulation is an impediment
to a precise assessment. Nevertheless statistically significant increases in annual
mean kinetic energy of the zonal mean flow, standing and transient long waves
as well as synoptic waves were observed.
70
7.1 Future directions
The need for longer experiments
Due to computationally intensive nature of the experiments conducted at T42L90
resolution, it was only possible to integrate the model over 11 years. In com-
parison to the 30 year length of the Control run, it is clear that this severely
limits the statistical significance of the results obtained. While the number of
available QBO phases for post-processing is larger in the later experiments and
serial correlation in the lower stratospheric winds decreases, thus increasing the
ratio of effective sample size and sample size, ten years of data are not enough
for some analyses. Thus one has to be cautious when making statements on
these experiments.
Therefore, longer integration times to gain more statistical confidence seem
desirable. Of course this would also allow examination of longer timescales
in these runs, namely the hint of decadal variability evident in the Control
experiments. The improvement in certainty provided by a longer experiment
could be helpful in settling some of the questions around extratropical effects of
the modified QBO.
Comparison with observations
Given the importance of sub-grid scale waves, a better estimate of RMS wind
might be desirable. Other means of determining this parameter, e.g. band-pass
filtered vertical profiles of temperature similar to diagnostics applied to satellite
data, may help to improve the accuracy of the estimate. It is unclear, however, if
the current vertical resolution of about 1 km per layer in the lower stratosphere
is sufficient for this kind of analysis.
While precipitation variance in ECHAM is comparatively lifelike (Horinouchi
et al. 2003), it is conceivable the further refinements to the Tiedtke-Nordeng
deep convection closure scheme will be implemented that effect a different spec-
trum of resolved waves, just as the Tiedtke-Nordeng scheme is superior to the
Tiedtke scheme as used in ECHAM3, which, when used in MAECHAM5, gen-
erates a QBO with a 60-month period.
The results achieved with MAECHAM5 can be compared to soundings or
satellite measurements, which could lead to verification of both the tropospheric
(more intense tropical convection) and stratospheric (faster QBO) effects found
in the experiments. Satellite soundings in particular could also improve un-
derstanding of tropical gravity wave generation and yield a better view on the
intricate role of gravity waves in the QBO.
If the tendency of a faster QBO exists not just in MAECHAM5 but also
in reality (which seems reasonable, although the experiments conducted here
71
are deliberate simplifications of the problem), the ever-growing observational
record of the QBO should mirror this tendency. A new generation of satellites
currently in deployment might supply a better coupling of reality and general
circulation models in the future.
Other model sensitivities
Finally, other sensitivities exist that may have a major impact on the outcome:
Higher horizontal resolution influences QBO period by decreasing the spatial
limit for resolved waves, thus adding momentum flux to the experiment. For
example, increasing horizontal resolution to T63 reduces the current-climate
QBO period to a more realistic 27 months (M. A. Giorgetta, personal commu-
nication). It remains to be seen whether this speedup influences the ratio of
Control experiment QBO period by CO
2
climate QBO period or if this effect is
such that even though the individual periods are shortened, the ratio remains
more or less the same.
The importance of the RMS gravity wave wind parameter even under normal
climate conditions for the QBO is evidenced by other sensitivity experiments un-
der present-day climate conditions (M. A. Giorgetta, personal communication)
that show a 48-month QBO period for rmswind=0.9 m/s, a 22-month period
for rmswind=1.1 m/s, and a 29-month period under default (rmswind=1.0 m/s)
conditions.
The Run001 experiment with its borderline, wind profile-shifted may also
behave differently under later model revisions and / or higher horizontal reso-
lutions. This would allow to draw comparisons for forcing and upwelling that
might shed light on why the oscillation behaves somewhat unusually in the
Run001 experiment as documented here.
72
A The Transformed Eulerian Mean and the
Eliassen-Palm flux
The Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) formalism was introduced by Andrews
and McIntyre (1976) as a means to group momentum and heat transport by
eddies together in such a way that the eddy effect on the mean background
flow becomes apparent in the zonally averaged equations of motion. It was an
extension of the work done by Eliassen and Palm (1961) a decade earlier, who
had introduced the Eliassen-Palm flux for the study of the effects of mountain
lee waves.
The E-P flux is basically a vector in the meridional plane, whose components
are related to the eddy flux of sensible heat (vertical component, F
z
) and the
eddy flux of momentum (horizontal component, F
y
). When the E-P flux as well
as its divergence are plotted over each other, the total amount of eddy forcing
of the zonal background wind can be inferred (from the divergence) and also the
relative importance of the two eddy fluxes (the angle of the E-P flux vector in the
plane) for causing these effects (Peixoto and Oort 1992). Furthermore the E-P
flux divergence is proportional to the northward transport of quasi-geostrophic
potential vorticity (Edmon et al. 1980).
The TEM formalism can be derived from different zonally averaged sets
of equations of atmospheric motions, such as the primitive equations or the
quasi-geostrophic approximation, and will look slightly different according to
the assumptions used. Andrews and McIntyre (1976) use the Boussinesq ap-
proximation for the β-plane primitive equations in their derivations, while An-
drews et al. (1987) employ quasigeostrophy. The so-called residual circulation,
v

and w

, is introduced into the zonally averaged momentum and thermody-
namic equations. If in the quasi-geostrophic framework, for example, v

and w

are defined as
v

= v −ρ
−1
0

ρ
0
v

θ

(∂θ
0
/∂z)
−1

/∂z
and w

= w + ∂

v

θ

(∂θ
0
/∂z)
−1

/∂y,
(where the quantities with subscripted zeroes refer to average vertical reference
profiles) these zonally averaged equations take on a simple form where the eddy
forcing, represented by the divergence of the E-P flux F, and the nonconservative
effects (X) impact the zonally averaged zonal momentum, while the diabatic
heating term Q acts to change the zonally averaged temperature field:
∂u/∂t = ρ
−1
0
∂F
y
/∂y + ρ
−1
0
∂F
z
/∂z + f
o
v

+ X
∂θ/∂t = −w

∂θ
o
/∂z + Q.
73
If the time derivatives vanish, i.e. the atmosphere has reached a steady state
in regard to these two zonally averaged properties, the residual circulation and
the other forcing terms balance. The vertical component, w

, will then offset the
local diabatic heating, while the meridional component, v

, will counterbalance
the eddy momentum transport as characterized by the E-P flux divergence.
While the quasi-geostrophic framework is not applicable in the tropics, the
equation for θ does reflect the observed secondary circulation of the QBO, in
which air descends and warms in the regions where the vertical velocity shear
dictates a warm anomaly to exist because of the thermal wind relation.
If the residual streamfunction χ

is defined from v

and w

analogous to the
Eulerian streamfunction χ from v and w, the dependence of w

on Q causes
χ

to take on a one-cell shape with ascent in the tropics and descent in the
subtropics and mid-latitudes, as opposed to the three-cell structure exhibited
by the convention Eulerian-mean streamfunction, χ.
For linear, conservative, and steady waves, Dunkerton (1978) formally proved
the equivalence of residual and Lagrangian circulation. If these assumptions are
violated, the Generalized Lagrangian Mean (GLM) of Andrews and McIntyre
(1978) must be used instead. However, while Dunkerton’s assumptions are rarely
met, the residual circulation still approximates the real Lagrangian motion well
enough for most purposes, because for longer time periods the diabatic warming
is by far the most important driving force while other effects tend to cancel out
(Sutton 1994).
There are two important theorems about the E-P flux divergence: The
Charney-Drazin non-acceleration theorem (after Charney and Drazin 1961) states
that linear, conservative, and steady waves do not change the zonally averages
zonal wind (u) and temperature (T) fields, that is, their E-P flux divergence,
∇· F, vanishes. The Generalized Eliassen-Palm theorem (also in Andrews and
McIntyre 1976) describes how nonlinear, nonconservative effects and a nonzero
Eliassen-Palm flux act together to change the wave activity:
∂A
∂t
= D −∇· F + O

α
3

.
This equation states that the density of wave activity will change over time
because of diabatic (i.e. heating) and nonconservative (i.e. friction) forcing
(D), eddy forcing (∇· F), and nonlinear effects (the term related to the cube of
the wave amplitude, α).
A more in-depth review of the literature on the TEM and GLM formalisms
as well as their applications to the investigation of troposphere-stratosphere
coupling is provided by Silvestre (2003).
74
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List of Figures
1 The quasi-biennial oscillation as measured by rawinsondes: zonal
wind in m/s. The data is supplied by the 2002 edition of the
CD-ROM “The Berlin Stratospheric Data Series” published by
K. Labitzke’s research group at the Free University Berlin. . . . . 6
2 The four vibrational modes of carbon dioxide: (a) symmetric,
(b) asymmetric stretching; (c), (d) bending, where (d) is just
(c) rotated by 90

. In (a), there is no change in dipole moment
during vibration, thus no interaction with photons is possible. . . 9
3 Atmospheric CO
2
concentration in ppmv determined at Mauna
Loa, Hawaii. Missing values are linearly interpolated. Data from
Keeling and Whorf (2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
4 Schematic view of the tropical Hadley cell and the stratospheric
Brewer-Dobson circulation at solstice. Thin lines mark Lagrangian
transport, while bold arrows indicate predominant mixing direc-
tions for tracers. Tropopause and stratopause are depicted as
dashed lines (from WMO 1985). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
5 The ECHAM model family of ECHAM, MAECHAM, and HAM-
MONIA and the effects taken into account by these models.
HAMMONIA (HAMburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized At-
mosphere, and also Latin for ’Hamburg’) is a version of MAECHAM5
that extends up to 250 km height and is coupled to the MOZART3
(Brasseur et al. 1998) chemistry model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
6 Vertical coordinate system absolute heights and half-level dis-
tances, showing the differences between the 39-layer (blue) and
the 90-layer (red) versions of ECHAM. In the 90-layer case, layer
thickness stays well below 1 km up to about 40 km height. . . . . 16
7 The MPI-OM1 coordinate grid with increased equatorial resolu-
tion and a polar axis tilted so that the northern pole of the grid
lies above Greenland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
8 Schematic overview of the CMIP experiments. . . . . . . . . . . . 20
9 AMIP2 climatological SST (

C, shaded) and 90% (solid) and 15%
(dashed) contours of sea ice cover for (a) annual mean, (b) De-
cember to February, and (c) June to August conditions. . . . . . 22
10 Monthly mean sea ice extent from the AMIP2 climatology for the
entire globe as well as for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere
separately. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
11 As in Figure 9 but for the 2010-2029 period of the CMIP1CO2 run. 24
12 As in Figure 9 but for the 2140-2159 period of the CMIP2CO2 run. 25
81
13 Differences between the AMIP2 (grey) and CMIP (red) land sea
masks. For the red points, SST must be interpolated. . . . . . . 26
14 Average differences between the CMIPCO2 runs for (a) annual
mean, (b) December to February, and (c) June to August con-
ditions, with ∆SST shaded and the −50% (solid) and −25%
(dashed) contours of ∆SIC. Blank areas did not pass a t test
at the 5% level. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
15 Monthly sea ice extent from the two CMIP runs in comparison
to the AMIP2 climatology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
16 Decrease in sea ice cover between the AMIP2 climatology and the
modified 2xCO
2
climatology: Annual mean 75% sea ice cover for
AMIP2 (shaded) and 2xCO
2
(black contour line) for the northern
(top) and southern (bottom) hemisphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
17 Resulting climatology for SST and sea ice cover as derived from
the CMIP1CO2 and CMIP2CO2 runs: SST (

C, shaded) and
90% (solid) and 15% (dashed) contours of sea ice cover for (a)
annual-mean, (b) December to February, and (c) June to August
conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
18 Zonal mean zonal wind (m/s, black contours) and temperature
(K) for experiments (a) QBO, (b) QBO2CO2, and (c) their dif-
ference, QBO2CO2−QBO. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
19 Monthly and zonal mean zonal wind (m/s) at the equator in
Experiment L90 (from Giorgetta et al. 2002). . . . . . . . . . . . 33
20 Monthly mean time-height section of zonal mean zonal equato-
rial wind in m/s for the Control run, the extension of the L90
experiment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
21 Monthly and zonal mean tendency of zonal wind in ms
−1
d
−1
at
the equator by resolved waves (a) and by parameterized gravity
wave dissipation (b). The zero contour of the zonal mean wind
is shown in black (from Giorgetta et al. 2002). . . . . . . . . . . 34
22 Individual wave trains emanating from the tropical tropopause vi-
sualized as the absolute daily mean temperature anomaly caused
by the k = 2 wave averaged between 5

N and 5

S. Upward-
propagating Rossby-gravity waves are absorbed in a strong east-
erly shear around 30 hPa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
23 Run001 monthly mean zonal mean equatorial zonal wind in m/s.
A regular QBO does not develop, instead there a layers of fluc-
tuating westerlies and easterlies at and below 50 hPa and only
sporadic downward propagation of westerlies between 10 and 20
hPa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
82
24 As in Figure 23 but with the annual mean zonal mean values for
each level removed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
25 Wavelet power spectrum for the Control experiment 48.13 hPa
zonal mean zonal wind monthly means. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
26 As in Figure 25 but for the Run001 experiment. . . . . . . . . . . 40
27 Forcings of ∂u/∂t in cm/(sd) averaged over the NH winters of
years 2/3, 4/5, and 7/8: (a) advection by v

, (b) advection by
w

, (c) total advection by residual circulation, (d) y -divergence
of F
y
, (e) z -divergence of F
z
, and (f) total E-P flux divergence.
Selected contours of zonal mean zonal wind are drawn in blue. . 42
28 Climatological atmospheric “tape recorder” signals for (a) the
Control experiment, (b) the Run001 experiment. Anomalous spe-
cific humidity in ppmv with an approximate mean rate of ascent
(black line). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
29 Convective precipitation means (a, c) and temporal variances (b,
d) for the Control (a, b) and Run001 (c, d) experiments. Units
are mm/d and mm
2
/d
2
, respectively. The annual cycle has been
subtracted before computing variance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
30 Zonally averaged precipitation means (a, b) and variances (c, d)
for Control run (a, c) and Run001 (b, d). . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
31 Increase in spectral power between the Control and Run001 ex-
periments for 200 hPa temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
32 As in Figure 31 but for meridional wind. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
33 Equatorial monthly mean zonal mean zonal wind in m/s for
Run002 (top) and Run003 (bottom), with 1.1 and 1.2 times the
RMS gravity wave wind from Run001 to account for more intense
convection under the doubled CO
2
climate conditions. . . . . . . 51
34 Composite of equatorial zonal mean zonal wind for the Control
run. Individual panels show mean u [m/s] (top) and standard
deviation [m/s] (bottom) of the composited fields. Black con-
tours of vanishing zonal mean zonal wind are superimposed on
the standard deviation for better comparison. Composites start
with winds getting westerly at 20.77 hPa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
35 As in Figure 34 but for the Run002 experiment. . . . . . . . . . . 53
36 As in Figure 34 but for the Run003 experiment. . . . . . . . . . . 53
37 Monthly mean momentum deposition above the equator by re-
solved (top) and unresolved (bottom) waves in ms
−1
d
−1
for eleven
years of the Control experiment. The zero contour of zonal mean
zonal wind is shown in black. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
83
38 Composite of parameterized gravity wave forcing (top) and its
standard deviation (bottom) for the Control experiment. The
units are ms
−1
d
−1
and the composite contour of vanishing zonal
mean zonal wind is drawn in black. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
39 As in Figure 37 but for ten years of the Run002 experiment. . . . 56
40 As in Figure 38 but for the Run002 experiment. . . . . . . . . . . 56
41 As in Figure 37 but for ten years of the Run003 experiment. . . . 57
42 As in Figure 38 but for the Run003 experiment. . . . . . . . . . . 57
43 Vertical profile of the minimum and maximum parameterized
gravity wave drag forcings for Control (black), Run002 (red), and
Run003 (blue) in ms
−1
d
−1
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
44 Histograms of QBO westerly (left column) and easterly (right
column) phase durations in months at 20.77 hPa for the Control,
Run002, and Run003 experiments (rows). The data has been
binned into three-month intervals around multiples of three. . . . 61
45 As in Figure 44 but for a height of 48.13 hPa. . . . . . . . . . . . 62
46 Non-dimensional barotropic instability parameter at 29.08 hPa
for the entire Run002 experiment. The zero contour is drawn
in black. Negative values indicate barotropically unstable condi-
tions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
47 Zonal mean equatorial w

(averaged between 10

N and 10

S) in
mm/s for Control (blue), Run002 (red), Run003 (green). . . . . . 65
84
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank M. A. Giorgetta for his patience, guidance, and
insightfulness. His helpful comments in the final phase of this work were also
very much appreciated.
I would also like to thank the engineers from NEC Corp. for constructing a
machine powerful enough to tackle these kinds of scientific problems which were
beyond the reach of even the most powerful computers until a few years ago.
Finally, I owe thanks to Ludwig, bonvivant and lagomorph extraordinaire,
whose ability to provide valuable emotional support remains unmatched.
In addition to the standard diagnostics and plotting packages, the following
software was used:
• Transformed Eulerian Mean and parameterized gravity wave drag analysis
code by Marco A. Giorgetta
• Fluxes and Lorenz Energy Cycle by Frank I. Lunkeit
• Wavelet analysis code in Fortran and IDL by Christopher Torrence and
Gilbert P. Compo
• Numerical Recipes for Fortran-77 and C
• Stats.py by Gary Strangman
I am indebted to the respective authors for sharing their work.
85
Erkl¨arung
Hiermit versichere ich, dass ich die vorliegende Arbeit selbst¨andig
verfasst und außer der angegebenen Hilfsmittel und Literatur keine
anderen Quellen und Hilfsmittel verwendet habe.
........................................................
Hamburg, den 30.10.2003

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