You are on page 1of 39

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Economic Impact of Global Warming is NOT a Hoax A Detailed Project Report

Subject : National Economic Planning II Submitted To : Prof. Robin Thomas :Submitted By: Sudip Vyas Puran Sen Dipesh Bhimani Sohil Vekariya Batch : FC 2 (1) ISBE, Ahmedabad.

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Abstract
The issues involved in understanding global warming and taking policies to slow its harmful impacts are the major environmental challenge of the modern age. Global warming poses a unique mix of problems that arise from the fact that global warming is a global public good, is likely to be costly to slow or prevent, has daunting scientific and economic uncertainties, and casts a shadow over the globe for decades, perhaps even centuries to come. Global Warming is rising temperatures on Earths surface. Everything you buy or do someone must have polluted in order to make it. The Greenhouse effect is one of the major causes of Global Warming. Greenhouse gases naturally cover the Earth and keep it about 33 degrees Celsius warmer than it would be without those gases in the atmosphere. Greenhouse effect is heating of the Earth due to pressure of greenhouse gases. The gases that make up this are: Fluorocarbons 5%, methane 13%, Nitrous Oxide 6%, and Carbon Dioxide 76%. It is said Global Warming will affect our economy. After finding information on this huge topic we have found that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere causes growth of plants to increase in a major fashion. This does cause plants like corn and beans to grow very big causing farmers to have an abnormal growing season. This will still cause the need for more food all around the world. The rising of cost production due to this food will result in prices rising. This growing of plants could also cause productivity losses. This is because insects have more to feed on, severe drought, and scarcity for water could happen due to all these plants. The challenge of coping with global warming is particularly difficult because it has spans many disciplines and parts of society. Ecologists may see it as a threat to ecosystems, marine biologists as a problem arising from ocean acidification, utilities as a debit to their balance sheets, and coal miners as an existential threat to their livelihood. Businesses may view global warming as either an opportunity or a hazard, politicians as a great issue as long as they dont need to mention taxes, ski resorts as a mortal danger to their already short seasons, golfers as a boon to yearround recreation, and poor countries as a threat to their farmers as well as a source of financial and technological aid. This many-faceted nature also raises challenges to natural and social scientists, which must incorporate a wide variety of geophysical, economic, and political disciplines in their diagnoses and prescriptions.

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Acknowledgement
We would like to thank IIPM first for giving such a thoughtful topic and making us strong in Presentations. We would like to give immense thanks to Prof. Robin Thomas for his everlasting support. We have taken efforts in this project of effect of global warming on economy is not a hoax. However, it would not have been possible without the kind support and help of many batch mates, seniors, and faculty members. We would like to extend our sincere thanks to all of them.

We are highly indebted to IIPM faculties for their guidance and constant supervision as well as for providing necessary information regarding the project & also for their support in completing the NEP presentation.

Our thanks and appreciations also go to our group members in developing the NEP presentation and people who have willingly helped us out with their abilities.

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

: Table of Content:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Chapters Global Warming An Overview Ecological Impacts Economical Impacts Glacier Melting Sea Level Rise Agriculture Natural Calamities Health Worldwide Economic Effects Africa India Japan Middle East Policies to Curb Global Warming References Page No. 5 11 14 16 19 22 24 28 30 31 33 34 38

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

:Global Warming:
A Brief Profile Global warming is the current rise in the average temperature of Earth's oceans and atmosphere. The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and was initiated by human activities, especially those that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning of fossil fuels. This finding is recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries and is not rejected by any scientific body of national or international standing. As a result of the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), it is expected that significant climate changes will occurs in the coming decades and beyond. The major industrial GHGs are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, ozone, nitrous oxides, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The most important GHG is CO2, whose emissions have risen rapidly in recent decades. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide of 380 parts per million (ppm) in 2005 far exceeds the range over the last 650,000 years(estimated to be between 180 to 300 ppm). Current calculations from climate models are that doubling the amount of CO2 or the equivalent in the atmosphere compared with pre-industrial levels will in equilibrium lead to an increase in the global surface temperature of 2 to 4.5 degrees C, with a best estimate of about 3 C. During the 20th century, global surface temperature increased by about 0.74 C (1.33 F) Using computer models of the climate system based on six greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global surface temperature is likely to rise1.1 to 6.4 C (2.0 to 11.5 F) by 2100. The suite of models and emissions scenarios used by the IPCC produce a range of temperature change over the 21 st century of between 1.8 and 4.0 C. Other projected effects are increases in precipitation and evaporation, an increase in extreme events such as hurricanes, and a rise in sea levels of 0.2 to 0.6 meters over this century. Some models also predict regional shifts, such as hotter and drier climates in mid-continental regions, such as the U. S. Midwest. Climate monitoring indicates that the actual global warming is occurring in line with scientific predictions.

Climate change The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause. Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Nio, do not represent climate change. The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity, as opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earths' natural processes, and the differentiation of these two causes, human impact vs. natural processes is a key component of the climate change debate.

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Causes Climate change reflects a change in the energy balance of the climate system, i.e. changes the relative balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation from Earth. When this balance changes it is called "radiative forcing" Consequently, the debate is shifting onto ways to reduce further human impact and to find ways to adapt to change that has already occurred and is anticipated to occur in the future.

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play both separately and in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate, microclimate, and measures of climate variables

Temperature change The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 0.18 C over the period 19062005. Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmest year since reliable. Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.

Fossil fuel burning The fossil fuels, which contain high percentages of carbon, include coal, petroleum, and natural gas. World energy consumption was growing about 2.3% per year. Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources because they take millions of years to form, and reserves are being depleted much faster than new ones are being made. The production and use of fossil fuels raise environmental concerns The burning of fossil fuels produces around 21.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year, but it is estimated that natural processes can only absorb about half of that amount, so there is a net increase of 10.65 billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year (one tonne of atmospheric carbon is equivalent to 44/12 or 3.7 tonnes of carbon dioxide). Carbon dioxide is one of the greenhouse gases that enhances radiative forcing and contributes to global warming.

Deforestation Deforestation is the removal of a forest or stand of trees where the land is thereafter converted to a nonforest use. Examples of deforestation include conversion of forestland to farms, ranches, or urban use. The term deforestation is often misused to describe any activity where all trees in an area are removed.Deforestation occurs for many reasons: trees or derived charcoal are used as, or sold, for fuel or as timber, while cleared land is used as pasture for livestock, plantations of commodities, and settlements. The removal of trees without sufficient reforestation has resulted in damage.

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


It has adverse impacts on biosequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Deforestation causes extinction, changes to climatic conditions, desertification, and displacement of populations as observed by current conditions and in the past through the fossil record.

Source: Prof. Dato Dr. Ho Sinn Chye, Wawasan University, Malaysia.

10

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax :Ecological Impacts:
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and pole ward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming. Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs. It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems. El Nino La Nina: El Nio and La Nia are different stages in a cyclical pattern of climate turbulence otherwise known by meteorologists as the Southern Oscillation. First noticed by 16th century fishermen on the Pacific coast of South America, these phenomena were not scientifically documented until the 1920s when scientists noticed periodic occurrences every three to seven years in the eastern Pacific. Since the 1970s, though, El Nio and La Nia have been occurring with more frequency and intensity. The Effects of El Nio According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the El Nio part of the cycle involves warmer-than-usual sea temperatures, great amounts of rainfall (in the northern hemisphere) and low atmospheric pressure. The most extreme results of an El Nio event have included flooding from Ecuador to the Gulf of Mexico, massive marine life die-offs in the Pacific, hurricanes in Tahiti and Hawaii, and concurrent droughts in many other parts of the world from Southern India to Australia to Central America. The Effects of La Nia In contrast, cooler sea temperatures, high atmospheric pressure and drier air characterize the La Nia phase of the Southern Oscillation. During La Nia, currents bring nutrients up from the deep water, providing feast, rather than famine, for marine organisms. And accompanying strong winds blow moisture away, making for cloudless skies and dry conditions in equatorial countries from the International Date Line east to South America. How is Global Warming Related to El Nio and La Nia? Some scientists believe that the increased intensity and frequencynow every two to three yearsof El Nio and La Nia events in recent decades is due to warmer ocean temperatures resulting from global warming. In a 1998 report, scientists from NOAA explained that higher global temperatures might be increasing evaporation from land and adding moisture to the air, thus intensifying the storms and floods associated with El Nio. Another take on whats happening is from Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the Colorado-based National Center for Atmospheric Research. Trenberth believes that the Southern Oscillation may be functioning like a pressure release valve for the tropics. With global warming driving temperatures higher, ocean currents and weather systems might not be able to release all the extra heat getting pumped into the tropical seas; as such an El Nio occurs to help expel the excess heat.

11

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Extinction of Species: Another major effect of Global Warming has been noticed in the behavior of the wild life. There has been extinction of various species due to global warming. Major changes are seen in the animals as they react to the warmer environment, which are caused due to global warming. A behavior pattern of the animals studied shows that the animals are beginning to shift their population towards north or towards a higher altitudes. A simple study that was made in the university of California on a small butterfly is enough to depict the changes in the availability of species in the warmer areas. A survey at one hundred and fifty one areas showed that the butterfly were getting less populated in the southern areas which were warmer as compared to the northern areas. Hence the butterflies have migrated from warm southern zone to cooler northern zone. The marine life is also very sensitive to the increase in temperatures. The effect of global warming will definitely be seen on some species in the water. A survey was made in which the marine life reacted significantly to the changes in water temperatures. It is expected that many species will die off or become extinct due to the increase in the temperatures of the water, whereas various other species, which prefer warmer waters, will increase tremendously. Perhaps the most disturbing changes are expected in the coral reefs that are expected to die off as an effect of global warming. Even the penguins that live on poles are getting affected as a result of global warming. Due to melting of polar ice their life cycle is getting disturbed and which leads to death of many animals. Even penguins are affected by the climate change that takes place out there. Due to global warming around the world, their natural environment is affected. Those species that live in the extremely cold regions depend on the ice because it is what they walk on. When it is melting at fast rates it completely changes their natural environment. At the same time it can make them vulnerable to predators that they were protected from in the past due to the thick sheets of ice. According to a recent study conducted, around 400 species of bird may become endangered due to global warming in the coming 50 years. A few major causes for the extinction of various species of birds are climate change, deforestation and converting grassland into cropland. Sources also indicated that the number of extinction would grow more in the coming century. According to the author Walter Jetz of the University of California, We found in our study that under certain assumptions by the year 2100, 950 to 1,800 bird species may be imperiled or even driven to extinction by climate change and habitat destruction, he further added, Most of these species are currently not recognized as imperiled. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment has estimated this with the combine projections of future global warming, agricultural expansion and human population growth. If you are looking for some detail information then you may go for the online PloS Biology journals. Climate change has been considered as one of the major cause for extinction, as birds look out for more suitable habitat. Direct habitat destruction is one the major cause in case of tropical birds.

12

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Ocean Acidification :

Ocean acidification is the name given to the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by their uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Between 1751 and 1994 surface ocean pH is estimated to have decreased from approximately 8.25 to 8.14, representing an increase of approaching 30% in "acidity" (H+ ion concentration) in the world's oceans. pH(The pH scale measures how acidic or basic a substance is. The pH scale ranges from 0 to 14. A pH of 7 is neutral. A pH less than 7 is acidic. A pH greater than 7 is basic.) Acidification

Carbonate system of seawater Dissolving CO2 in seawater increases the hydrogen ion (H+) concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean pH. ocean acidification and warmer surface temperatures increase the dangers to many aquatic animals, particularly crustaceans, molluscs and coral reefs. Coral reefs are very sensitive to temperature changes, with many of them already observed to have bleached and died thanks to climate change. The most direct impacts of ocean acidification will be on marine ecosystems. Desertification: Desertification is the degradation of land in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humidareas due to various factors: including climatic variations and human activities. Desertification is one of the worlds most alarming global environmental problems. It takes place worldwide in drylands. At least 90% of the inhabitants of drylands live in developing countries and they suffer the poorest economic and social conditions. Drylands occupy 41% of Earths land area and are home to more than 2 billion people.How global warming affects desertification is not entirely understood, yet it is clear that an elevation in atmospheric and ground-level temperatures is likely to aggravate soil and vegetation loss in already hot climes. An increase in evapotranspiration and the accompanying decrease in rainfall mean that already semi-arid and sub-humid areas found across the world would face a future barrenness that is almost irreversible. This would negatively affect biodiversity and have a major impact on local human cultures and wildlife.

13

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Economical Impacts:
Timber Industry: Fires and wildfires

As the planet continues to warm, dry areas of land that are already susceptible to wildfires are likely to be ravaged by even more frequent and destructive episodes. In 2007, more than 3,000 fires brought destruction to Southeastern Europe thanks to a long summer that created arid and parched conditions a situation that would become normal as a consequence of the greenhouse effect. The 2006 wildland fire season in USA set new records in both the number of reported fires as well as acres burned. Close to 100,000 fires were reported and nearly 10 million acres burned, 125 percent above the 10year average.Firefighting expenditures have consistently totaled upwards of $1 billion per year in USA.

Glaciers Melting: Mountain glaciers are one of the world's primary freshwater reservoirs, feeding rivers via snowmelt during the dry summer months and preventing flooding during the winter wet season. In other words, glaciers minimize seasonal variations in the availability of water, a service that is vital to many of the world's most agriculturally important regions. Furthermore, mountain glaciers offer an enormous global tourism value by supporting snow sports, mountain climbing, and general scenic beauty. The snow-capped peak of Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania, which attracts tens of thousands of visitors each year, has already lost 82 percent of its ice and will likely be completely melted by 2020. Also it is happening in Alaska, the Himalayas, and the Andes. Research in Antarctica confirmed that its glaciers were losing their mass at an unusual rapid rate. Pine islands glaciers lost their thickness at the rate of 1.6 meters per year. The average rate of ice loss since 2000 is over half a meter per year, which is three times the annual rate of the 1980s. Polar ice caps melting

The ice cap melting is a four-pronged danger. First, it will raise sea levels. There are 5,773,000 cubic miles of water in ice caps, glaciers, and permanent snow. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, if all glaciers melted today the seas would rise about 230 feet. Luckily, thats not going to happen all in one go! But sea levels will rise. Second, melting ice caps will throw the global ecosystem out of balance. The ice caps are fresh water, and when they melt they will desalinate the ocean, or in plain English make it less salty. The desalinization of the Gulf current will "screw up" ocean currents, which regulate temperatures. The stream shutdown or irregularity would cool the area around Northeast America and Western Europe. Luckily, that will slow some of the other effects of global warming in that area! Third, temperature rises and changing landscapes in the Artic Circle will endanger several species of animals. Only the most adaptable will survive.

14

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Fourth, global warming could snowball with the ice caps gone. Ice caps are white, and reflect sunlight, much of which is reflected back into space, further cooling Earth. If the ice caps melt, the only reflector is the ocean. Darker colors absorb sunlight, further warming the Earth. Melting glaciers will set off avalanches, floods and mud flows in the Alps and other mountain ranges; torrential rainfall in the UK is likely to cause widespread erosion; while disappearing Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets threaten to let loose underwater landslides, triggering tsunamis that could even strike the seas around Britain. At the same time the disappearance of ice caps will change the pressures acting on the Earth's crust and set off volcanic eruptions across the globe. Life on Earth faces a warm future and a fiery one. "Not only are the oceans and atmosphere conspiring against us, bringing baking temperatures, more powerful storms and floods, but the crust beneath our feet seems likely to join in too," said Professor Bill McGuire, director of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, at University College London (UCL). "Maybe the Earth is trying to tell us something," added McGuire, who is one of the organisers of UCL's Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards conference, which will open on 15 September. Some of the key evidence to be presented at the conference will come from studies of past volcanic activity. These indicate that when ice sheets disappear the number of eruptions increases, said Professor David Pyle, of Oxford University's earth sciences department. "The last ice age came to an end between 12,000 to 15,000 years ago and the ice sheets that once covered central Europe shrank dramatically," added Pyle. "The impact on the continent's geology can by measured by the jump in volcanic activity that occurred at this time." In the Eiffel region of western Germany a huge eruption created a vast caldera, or basin-shaped crater, 12,900 years ago, for example. This has since flooded to form the Laacher See, near Koblenz. Scientists are now studying volcanic regions in Chile and Alaska where glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking rapidly as the planet heats up in an effort to anticipate the eruptions that might be set off. Last week scientists from Northern Arizona University reported in the journal Science that temperatures in the Arctic were now higher than at any time in the past 2,000 years. Ice sheets are disappearing at a dramatic rate and these could have other, unexpected impacts on the planet's geology. According to Professor Mark Maslin of UCL, one is likely to be the release of the planet's methane hydrate deposits. These ice-like deposits are found on the seabed and in the permafrost regions of Siberia and the far north. "These permafrost deposits are now melting and releasing their methane," said Maslin. "You can see the methane bubbling out of lakes in Siberia. And that is a concern, for the impact of methane in the atmosphere is considerable. It is 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas." A build-up of permafrost methane in the atmosphere would produce a further jump in global warming and accelerate the process of climate change. Even more worrying, however, is the impact of rising sea temperatures on the far greater reserves of methane hydrates that are found on the sea floor. It was not just the warming of the sea that was the problem, added Maslin. As the ice around Greenland and Antarctica melted, sediments would pour off land masses and cliffs would crumble, triggering underwater landslides that would break open more hydrate reserves on the sea-bed. Again there would be a jump in global warming. "These are key issues that we will have to investigate over the next few years," he said. There is also a danger of earthquakes, triggered by disintegrating glaciers, causing tsunamis off Chile, New Zealand and Newfoundland in Canada, Nasa scientist Tony Song will tell the conference. The last on this list could even send a tsunami across the Atlantic, one that might reach British shores.

15

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


The conference will also hear from other experts of the risk posed by melting ice in mountain regions, which would pose significant dangers to local people and tourists. The Alps, in particular, face a worryingly uncertain future, said Jasper Knight of Exeter University. "Rock walls resting against glaciers will become unstable as the ice disappears and so set off avalanches. In addition, increasing meltwaters will trigger more floods and mud flows." For the Alps this is a serious problem. Tourism is growing there, while the region's population is rising. Managing and protecting these people was now an issue that needed to be addressed as a matter of urgency, Knight said. "Global warming is not just a matter of warmer weather, more floods or stronger hurricanes. It is a wake-up call to Terra Firma," McGuire said.

Sea Level Rise: Sea level is rising along most of the U.S. coast, and around the world. In the last century, sea level rose 5 to 6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, because coastal lands there are subsiding. EPA, in coordination with the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has published a report, "Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region." The study is one of 21 climate change studiescommissioned being conducted by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). "Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region" discusses the possible impacts of sea-level rise and how governments and communities can respond to rising waters. Higher temperatures are expected to further raise sea level by expanding ocean water, melting mountain glaciers and small ice caps, and causing portions of Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets to melt. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global average sea level will rise between 0.6 and 2 feet (0.18 to 0.59 meters) in the next century (IPCC, 2007). The range reflects uncertainty about global temperature projections and how rapidly ice sheets will melt or slide into the ocean in response to the warmer temperatures. Furthermore, some processes affecting sea level have long (centuries and longer) time-scales, so that current sea level change is also related to past climate change, and some relevant processes are not determined solely by climate. Climate models, satellite data and hydrographic observations demonstrate that sea level is not rising uniformly around the world. Depending on the region, sea level has risen several times the global mean rise, or has actually fallen (IPCC, 2007). While current model projections indicate substantial variability in future sea level rise at regional and local scales, the IPCC has concluded that the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative (IPCC, 2007). Rising sea levels inundate wetlands and other low-lying lands, erode beaches, intensify flooding, and increase the salinity of rivers, bays, and groundwater tables. Some of these effects may be further compounded by other effects of a changing climate. Additionally, measures that people take to protect private property from rising sea level may have adverse effects on the environment and on public uses of beaches and waterways. Some property owners and state and local governments are already starting to take measures to prepare for the consequences of rising sea level. Land Loss

16

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as salt marshes and mangroves are particularly vulnerable to rising sea level because they are generally within a few feet of sea level (IPCC, 2007). Wetlands provide habitat for many species, play a key role in nutrient uptake, serve as the basis for many communities economic livelihoods, provide recreational opportunities, and protect local areas from flooding. As the sea rises, the outer boundary of these wetlands will erode, and new wetlands will form inland as previously dry areas are flooded by the higher water levels. The amount of newly created wetlands, however, could be much smaller than the lost area of wetlands - especially in developed areas protected with bulkheads, dikes, and other structures that keep new wetlands from forming inland. The IPCC suggests that by 2080, sea level rise could convert as much as 33 percent of the worlds coastal wetlands to open water. (IPCC, 2007). Tidal wetlands are generally found between sea level and the highest tide over the monthly lunar cycle. As a result, areas with small tide ranges are the most vulnerable. An EPA Report to Congress estimated that a two foot rise in sea level could eliminate 17-43 percent of U.S. wetlands, with more than half the loss taking place in Louisiana (EPA, 1989). Nationwide, about 5000 square miles of dry land are within two feet of high tide. Although the majority of this land is currently undeveloped, many coastal counties are growing rapidly. Land within a few feet above the tides could be inundated by rising sea level, unless additional dikes and bulkheads are constructed. A two foot rise in sea level would eliminate approximately 10,000 square miles of land (PDF) (26 pp, 267K)including current wetlands and newly inundated dry land, an area equal to the combined size of Massachusetts and Delaware (EPA, 1989). Some of the most economically important vulnerable areas are recreational resorts on the coastal barriers of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. In many cases, the ocean-front block of these islands is 5 to 10 feet above high tide; but the bay sides are often less than two feet above high water and regularly flooded (see USGS's 7.5-minute map series). Erosion threatens the high ocean sides of these densely developed islands and is generally viewed as a more immediate problem than inundation of their low bay sides. Many ocean shores are currently eroding 1 to 4 feet per year (FEMA, 2000). 1 meter rise could displace 7 million people. According to the OECD the cost of building walls to prevent flooding would cost 107 billion. Storms and Flooding Sea level rise also increases the vulnerability of coastal areas to flooding during storms for several reasons. First, a given storm surge from a hurricane or northeaster builds

17

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


on top of a higher base of water. Considering only this effect, a Report to Congress by FEMA (1991) estimated that existing development in the U.S. Coastal Zone would experience a 36-58 percent increase in annual damages for a 1foot rise in sea level, and a 102-200 percent increase for a 3-foot rise. Shore erosion also increases vulnerability to storms, by removing the beaches and dunes that would otherwise protect coastal property from storm waves (FEMA 2000). Sea level rise also increases coastal flooding from rainstorms, because low areas drain more slowly as sea level rises. Other impacts of climate change may further enhance or mitigate coastal flooding. Flooding from rainstorms may become worse if higher temperatures lead to increasing rainfall intensity during severe storms. An increase in the intensity of tropical storms would increase flood and wind damages. Responses to Sea Level Rise along the Coast Property owners and federal, state, and local governments are already starting to take measures to prepare for the consequences of rising sea level. Most coastal states are working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to place sand onto their beaches to offset shore erosion. Property owners are elevating existing structures in many low-lying areas, encouraged by lower flood insurance rates. Several states have adopted policies to ensure that beaches, dunes, or wetlands are able to migrate inland as sea level rises. Some states prohibit new houses in areas likely to be eroded in the next 30-60 years (e.g. North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission). Concerned about the need to protect property rights, Maine, Rhode Island, South Carolina and Texas have implemented some version of "rolling easements," in which people are allowed to build, but only on the condition that they will remove the structure if and when it is threatened by an advancing shoreline (Titus, 1998). Historically, along sandy bay beaches, property owners have erected various types of sea walls to halt erosion. Although these hard structures protect property, they can eliminate bay beaches, which are usually less than 10 feet wide. Beaches are used for fishing, recreation, transportation, and landing small crafts, in addition to their environmental importance. The National Research Council has released a report that examines ways to minimize the loss of bay shore habitat when protecting coastal property from shore erosion, such as the "Living Shorelines approach. Coastal Water Supplies Rising sea level increases the salinity of both surface water and ground water through salt water intrusion. New York City, Philadelphia, and much of Californias Central Valley obtain some of their water from portions of rivers that are slightly upstream from the point where water is salty during droughts. If sea level rise pushes salty water upstream, then the existing water intakes might draw on salty water during dry periods. Salinity increases in estuaries also can harm aquatic plants and animals that do not tolerate high salinity. Shallow coastal aquifers are also at risk (IPCC, 2007). The freshwater Everglades currently recharge Florida's Biscayne aquifer, the primary water supply to the Florida Keys. As rising water levels submerge low-lying portions of the Everglades, portions of the aquifer would become saline. Aquifers in New Jersey east of Philadelphia are recharged by fresh portions of the Delaware River which may become saline in the future.

18

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


In all of these cases, water management authorities currently prevent excessive salinity by releasing fresh water from reservoirs during droughts. One possible response to sea level rise would be to store more water during wet seasons so that more water can be released during droughts. However, otherwater management goals (e.g. flood prevention) may make it difficult to save extra water for the occasional drought. The impacts of climate change on local hydrology may offset or increase salinity increases due to sea level rise. Agriculture Crisis: This is because global warming is projected to cause serious disruptions in the weather, which will have a domino effect on other factors. More specifically, it is predicted that global warming will seriously affect the number of rainfall that certain agricultural regions receive yearly. Without rainfall, agriculture is simply impossible. Several areas are posed to be devastated by the onset of global warming. In the United States, it is projected that the American Southwest as well as the entire arid Western United States will receive little rainfall. The drought will grow longer and more severe until agriculture is no longer viable. Longer and more intense wildfire seasons are also predicted for this area of the United States, which will further compromise the ability to do agriculture in that area. Furthermore, a drought will lead to the loss of land, resulting in a scenario resembling the dustbowl of 1930s Depression-era Regional

Africa:

Africa's geography makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and seventy per cent of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Tanzania's official report on climate change suggests that the areas that usually get two rainfalls in the year will probably get more, and those that get only one rainy season will get far less. The net result is expected to be that 33% less maizethe country's staple cropwill be grown.Alongside other factors, regional climate change - in particular, reduced precipitation - is thought to have contributed to the conflict in Darfur.The combination of decades of drought,desertification and overpopulation are among the causes of the conflict, because the Baggara Arab nomads searching for water have to take their livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by farming peoples. With high confidence, IPCC (2007:13) concluded that climate variability and change would severely compromise agricultural production and access to food. Asia: With medium confidence, IPCC (2007:13) projected that by the mid-21st century, in East and Southeast Asia, crop yields could increase up to 20%, while in Central and South Asia, yields could decrease by up to 30%. Taken together, the risk of hunger was projected to remain very high in several developing countries. More detailed analysis of rice yields by the International Rice Research Institute forecast 20% reduction in yields over the region per degree Celsius of temperature rise. Rice becomes sterile if exposed to temperatures above 35 degrees for more than one hour during flowering and consequently produces no grain. Australia and New Zealand: Hennessy et al.. (2007:509) assessed the literature for this region. They concluded that without further adaptation to climate change, projected impacts would likely be substantial: By 2030, production from agriculture and forestry was projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand; In New Zealand, initial benefits were projected close to major rivers and in western and southern areas. Hennessy et al.. (2007:509) placed high confidence in these projections. Europe: With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14) projected that in Southern Europe, climate change would reduce crop productivity. In Central and Eastern Europe, forest productivity was expected to decline. In Northern Europe, the initial effect of climate change was projected to increase crop yields. Latin America: With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14) projected that in drier areas of Latin America, productivity of some important crops would decrease and livestock productivity decline, with adverse consequences for food security. In temperate zones, soybeanyields were projected to increase.

19

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


North America: According to a paper by Deschenes and Greenstone (2006), predicted increases in temperature and precipitation will have virtually no effect on the most important crops in the US. With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14-15) projected that over the first few decades of this century, moderate climate change would increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 520%, but with important variability among regions. Major challenges were projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or which depend on highly utilized water resources.

Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic): For the Guardian newspaper, Brown (2005) reported on how climate change had affected agriculture in Iceland. Rising temperatures had made the widespread sowing of barley possible, which had been untenable twenty years ago. Some of the warming was due to a local (possibly temporary) effect via ocean currents from the Caribbean, which had also affected fish stocks. Anisimov et al.. (2007:655) assessed the literature for this region.With medium confidence, they concluded that the benefits of a less severe climate were dependent on local conditions. One of these benefits was judged to be increased agricultural and forestry opportunities. Small islands: In a literature assessment, Mimura et al.. (2007:689) concluded, with high confidence, that subsistence andcommercial agriculture would very likely be adversely affected by climate change.

Shortage in grain production: Crops such as these sunflowers can be affected by severe drought conditions in Australia. Between 1996 and 2003, grain production has stabilized slightly over 1800 millions of tons. In 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003, grain stocks have been dropping, resulting in a global grain harvest that was short of consumption by 93 millions of tons in 2003. The Earth's average temperature has been rising since the late 1970s, with nine of the 10 warmest years on record occurring since 1995.In 2002, India and the United States suffered sharp harvest reductions because of record temperatures and drought. In 2003Europe suffered very low rainfall throughout spring and summer, and a record level of heat damaged most crops from the United Kingdom and France in the Western Europe through Ukraine in the East. Bread prices have been rising in several countries in the region. Poverty impacts Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) have investigated the potential impacts climate change could have on agriculture, and how this would affect attempts at alleviating poverty in the developing world.They argued that the effects from moderate climate change are likely to be mixed for developing countries. However, the vulnerability of the poor in developing countries to short term impacts from climate change, notably the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events is likely to have a negative impact. This, they say, should be taken into account when defining agricultural policy. Crop development models Models for climate behavior are frequently inconclusive. In order to further study effects of global warming on agriculture, other types of models, such as crop development models, yield prediction, quantities of water or fertilizer consumed, can be used. Such models condense the knowledge accumulated of the climate, soil, and effects observed of the results of various agricultural practices. They thus could make it possible to test strategies of adaptation to modifications of the environment.

20

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Because these models are necessarily simplifying natural conditions (often based on the assumption that weeds, disease and insectpests are controlled), it is not clear whether the results they give will have an infield reality. However, some results are partly validated with an increasing number of experimental results. Other models, such as insect and disease development models based on climate projections are also used (for example simulation ofaphid reproduction or septoria (cereal fungal disease) development). Scenarios are used in order to estimate climate changes effects on crop development and yield. Each scenario is defined as a set ofmeteorological variables, based on generally accepted projections. For example, many models are running simulations based on doubled carbon dioxide projections, temperatures raise ranging from 1C up to 5C, and with rainfall levels an increase or decrease of 20%. Other parameters may include humidity, wind, and solar activity. Scenarios of crop models are testing farm-level adaptation, such as sowing date shift, climate adapted species (vernalisation need, heat and cold resistance), irrigation and fertilizer adaptation, resistance to disease. Most developed models are about wheat, maize, rice and soybean. Temperature potential effect on growing period Duration of crop growth cycles are above all, related to temperature. An increase in temperature will speed up development. In the case of an annual crop, the duration between sowing and harvesting will shorten (for example, the duration in order to harvest corn could shorten between one and four weeks). The shortening of such a cycle could have an adverse effect on productivity becausesenescence would occur sooner. Effect of elevated carbon dioxide on crops Carbon dioxide is essential to plant growth. Rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere can have both positive and negative consequences. Increased CO2 is expected to have positive physiological effects by increasing the rate of photosynthesis. Currently, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 380 parts per million. Erosion and fertility The warmer atmospheric temperatures observed over the past decades are expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more extreme rainfall events. Erosion and soil degradation is more likely to occur. Soil fertility would also be affected by global warming. However, because the ratio of carbon to nitrogen is a constant, a doubling of carbon is likely to imply a higher storage ofnitrogen in soils as nitrates, thus providing higher fertilizing elements for plants, providing better yields. The average needs for nitrogen could decrease, and give the opportunity of changing often costly fertilisation strategies. Due to the extremes of climate that would result, the increase in precipitations would probably result in greater risks of erosion, whilst at the same time providing soil with better hydration, according to the intensity of the rain. The possible evolution of the organic matter in the soil is a highly contested issue: while the increase in the temperature would induce a greater rate in the production of minerals, lessening the soil organic matter content, the atmospheric CO2 concentration would tend to increase it.

Natural Calamities: Tsunamis

Although global warming does not directly influence the formation of tsunamis, they can be generated by events that are brought about by an amplification of the planets temperature. One example is the melting of ice sheets. Being extremely heavy, massive glaciers apply a considerable amount of pressure to the Earths surface underneath them.
21

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


This anchorage decreases as the glaciers diminish, resulting in a freeing up of tectonic masses that can lead to massive earthquakes and significant volcanic activity, both of which are capable of creating deadly tsunamis. Cold Waves

A cold wave is characterized by a major plunge in temperature over a 24 hour period. It can be a devastating shock for crops and commerce, and also bring death and injury to humans and animals through accidents, hypothermia and starvation. Damage to pipelines and property can be costly, and, particularly if snowfall accompanies the cold wave, transport systems can grind to a halt, adversely affecting the distribution of food, water and medical supplies. More than 150 people lost their lives during the 2009 to 2010 winter after record low temperatures and abundant snowfall caused disruption to much of Europe which doesn't take into account the many thousands more excess winter deaths that were caused indirectly. It was the UKs coldest winter for three decades. It may seem illogical at first to attribute harsher cold weather to global warming, but a change in atmospheric patterns brought about by receding glacial ice can lead to the redirection of polar air currents and the sun's rays being absorbed by the larger areas of dark blue sea, while critical phenomena like the Gulf Stream can be affected by changing ocean temperatures as well.

Increased volcanic activity

As already noted, melting glaciations can usher in new, more frequent and more dangerous episodes of volcanic activity. The shifting pressures brought about by the lightening of the vast ice sheets allows the Earths crust to bounce back and can cause eruptions in unexpected places like the one experienced during Iceland's Gjlp eruption, where magma reached the surface at an unusual intermediary point between two volcanoes. Potent or sustained volcanic activity can have an immense impact on human life even if the activity is centred away from dense population centers. It also has the potential to affect the planets climate by injecting tons of gases and solids into the atmosphere that can remain there for weeks. More dangerous thunderstorms

A consequence of the increased amounts of humid air generated by global warming is that more thunderstorms will be triggered. Research into the dynamic between climate change and thunderstorm power and frequency suggests that by the end of the century the occurrence of major thunderstorms could rise by over 100% in some places. Not only that, but this increase would generally occur during the existing storm season and not at times when such storms might provide beneficial rainfall to arid areas. Thunderstorms are also a common way of starting the devastating wildfires mentioned above. Migration, conflict and wars

It is possible that future centuries could see increased friction between nations and ethnic groups as dwindling resources lead to migration and conflict. Countries and factions would seek to control precious, dwindling resources and provide safety and shelter for their own people perhaps at the cost of others. Simultaneously, previously heavily populated places would become uninhabitable due to heat or other factors, displacing millions of people. These refugee hordes might be corralled into semi-permanent camps, or even suffer at the hands of unwelcoming native groups.

22

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Even now, relocations are taking place. Mumbais population is estimated to become swollen by a further 7 million people by the year 2050 as global warming renders villages and hamlets uninhabitable or unprofitable, either through flooding or drought. More land pollution would be an inevitable by-product of these changes in habitation and the availability of resources.

Loss of biodiversity and animal extinction

Loss of habitat for polar-ice edge communities such as polar bears is perhaps the most obvious consequence of having a warmer climate. Animals that are entirely dependent on cold environments will retreat to more northerly locations as the planet heats up leading to encroachment upon other eco-systems and displacement of other animals from their natural habitat. A strong connection between oceanic warming, declines in reproduction and increases in mortality rates among seabirds, seals and sea lions has already been observed. Acid rain has also been identified as having an adverse influence. One example of this is the death of large amounts of snails in areas prone to acidic precipitation. Birds depend upon the snails as a calcium-rich food source and, without a suitable replacement for this loss to their diet, lay eggs with a much higher amount of defective shells.

Death of ocean life

The worlds oceans absorb roughly 30% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide that seeps into the atmosphere, and so inevitably, as more fossil fuels are burned, ocean life will continue to suffer the negative consequences of global warming. One of the most critical changes brought about by global warming is the ongoing reduction of phytoplankton. These tiny plants are an integral food source for ocean life and are responsible for around half of the worlds photosynthetic activity. Essentially, they are the foundations of the oceanic food chain, so a reduction in their numbers creates a knock-on effect that ripples up the entire food chain, particularly affecting the predators at the top. Additionally, ocean acidification and warmer surface temperatures increase the dangers to many aquatic animals, particularly crustaceans, molluscs and coral reefs. Coral reefs are very sensitive to temperature changes, with many of them already observed to have bleached and died thanks to climate change.

Diminished food and water supplies

With greatly reduced rainfall, more severe droughts and loss of soil fertility, food and water supplies would soon diminish, resulting in higher prices, famine, disease, malnutrition, starvation and, ultimately, death. Politically unstable countries or badly affected areas might descend into various degrees of anarchy, with governmental collapses and shifts in authority as those in control of resources become more powerful. Countries that still retain good food and water resources might be unwilling to part with these vital commodities or accept the millions of refugees that would seek new homes. Ultimately these consequences would be catastrophic. Warmer waters and more hurricanes

23

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


As the temperature of oceans rises, so will the probability of more frequent and stronger hurricanes. We saw in this in 2004 and 2005.

Economic consequences

Most of the effects of anthropogenic global warming wont be good. And these effects spell one thing for the countries of the world: economic consequences. Hurricanes cause billions of dollars in damage, diseases cost money to treat and control and conflicts exacerbate all of these. Increased Hurricanes Cost U.S. Billions:

Many experts believe that global warming increases the size and frequency of hurricanes. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina created $125 billion in damage, with $66 billion in insured losses.It caused GDP to decline from 3.8% in Q3 to 1.3% in Q4 2005. In 2008, Hurricane Gustav andHurricane Ike hit the U.S. Though they did not cause as much damage, they support the trend of more frequent and more severe hurricanes caused by global warming.

Health Crisis: A World Bank report estimates that environmental degradation costs India around $80bn a year in terms of public health. Cost of air pollution around country is 9% GDP, $117 billion Health Costs Determined by estimating monetary values for associated morbidity (illness) and mortality (death). Scientists the globe over have observed changes that are impacting individuals' health and have also created models to predict where we might be headed. Here's a sampling of what we could be discussing with our doctors in the decades to come. Stepped-up sniffling. Allergiesfrom ragweed in the fall to tree pollen in the springare predicted not only to become stronger but also to enjoy lengthened seasons because of less frost and earlier blooming. Fungal spores (those outdoors and in moist basements) will most likely thrive, tickling the throats of many. Algae-related complaints. Cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, thrive and bloom in the rising temperatures of bodies of water, from municipal water systems to the Great Lakes and Florida's Lake Okeechobee. The algae have been linked to digestive, neurological, liver, and dermatological diseases. Painful kidney stones. Because of higher temps and more dehydration, the crystallized calcifications that must be passedoften painfullythrough the urinary tract could plague an additional 2.2 million people a year by 2050, researchers estimate. The current "kidney stone belt," which includes southern states like Florida, the Carolinas, and Arkansas, could extend up into Kentucky and northern California. Exotic infections. Dengue fever, malaria, and encephalitis, while not exactly household names, have seen U.S. outbreaks and upticks in incidence in recent years. Mosquitoes and plankton, which flourish in warmer water temperatures, play a key role in transmitting such diseases. Itchier cases of poison ivy. Poison ivy appears to become more potent as carbon dioxide levels rise, research has suggested.

24

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Surplus of stings. Alaska's warming has heralded a six fold rise in severe stings reported, and the buzzing bees, wasps, and yellow jackets are showing up in spots never before seen. Alaska may be a harbinger for the rest of us, as its temperature changes have been the most significant in the United States. Fewer fruits available. The value of crops produced in the Yakima River Valleymore than 6,ooo square miles of orchards and farmland east of Seattlemay drop almost a quarter as temperatures rise over the coming decades. Less water for irrigation from nearby mountain snowpack could drive down fruit availability and drive up the cost of the produce. Upsurge in summertime hacking and wheezing. Cool breezes coming down from Canada could diminish, driving up ozone pollution at ground levelparticularly in the Northeast and Midwestsay some Harvard scientists. Possible result: irritated lungs, especially in people with respiratory illness. Deluge of heat-wave deaths. Already a risk to the very young and the very old in the summer months, strings of hot and humid days are expected to become more frequent and more severe, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In California, for example, such deaths could double by 2100. Bigger coastal storms. The flooding associated with the likes of Katrina and Ike and the physical and mental stresses that ensue are expected to occur more frequently as storms surge around the world. By 2050, a 1-foot rise in sea level is predicted, which could worsen flood damage by 36 to 58 percent. Malaria: The implications are enormous, said Chris Thomas, of Aberystwyth University in the U.K., who does related work. More than a million children die from malaria every year in Africa. "That's one child every 30 seconds," he said. "This is for a preventable and treatable disease." And things could get worse. With global warming, malaria is spreading into new regions, though scientists don't yet know exactly where, when and how patterns of the disease are going to change. One reason for the uncertainty, Matthew Thomas said, is that most predictive models consider only a rise in average temperatures over days, months or even years. But climate projections also forecast a spike in extreme weather events as well as a rise in variability as the atmosphere heats up. Already, a typical day in a malaria-infested place like Tanzania might average 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit), but nights can drop to 15 degrees C (59 degrees F) with daytime highs of 32 degrees C (90 degrees F). Those peaks and dips, Thomas suspected, might affect malaria-transmitting Anopheles mosquitoes in a number of ways. When a mosquito drinks the blood an infected person, the insect also swallows the malaria parasite, which then must incubate and multiply before migrating into the insect's saliva. Death by smog A powerful combination of vehicular fumes, ground-level ozone, airborne industrial pollution and the stagnant hot air associated with heat waves, smog represents an immediate and chronic health threat to those living in built-up urban areas. It exacerbates pre-existing health conditions that affect the respiratory system such as emphysema, bronchitis and asthma, and in general impedes the immune systems ability to fight against infection and disease. A hotter climate tends to lead directly to an increase in the levels of ozone, with smog-related deaths predicted to rise by about 4.5 percent from the 1990s to the 2050s, according to relevant studies undertaken by Columbia and Johns Hopkins universities. Researchers have found that there is a close link between local climate and the occurrence or severity of some diseases and other threats to human health. It is estimated that climate change contributes to 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year, and the World Health Organization estimates that a quarter of the world's disease burden is due to the contamination of air, water, soil and food. In the last quarter of the 20th century, the average atmospheric temperature rose by about 1 degree Fahrenheit. By 2000, that increase was responsible for the annual loss of about 160,000 lives and the loss of 5.5 million years of

25

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


healthy life, according to estimates by the World Health Organization. The toll is expected to double to about 300,000 lives and 11 million years of healthy life by 2020. The biggest tolls were in Africa, on the Indian subcontinent, and in Southeast Asia. Most of the increased burden of death and disease were from malnutrition, diarrhea, malaria, heat waves, and floods. But those diseases will play a minor role, at best, in many regions that nevertheless will feel the effects of global warming. Some of climate changes impacts on health include: Increased frequencies of heat waves; more variable precipitation patterns compromising the supply of freshwater, higher risks of water-borne diseases; and a rise in coastal flooding due to rising sea levels, etc. Global Warming and Human Health But even more subtle, gradual climatic changes can damage human health. During the past two decades, the prevalence of asthma in the United States has quadrupled, in part because of climate-related factors. For Caribbean islanders, respiratory irritants come in dust clouds that emanate from Africa's expanding deserts and are then swept across the Atlantic by trade winds, which have accelerated due to warmer ocean temperatures. Increased levels of plant pollen and soil fungi may also be involved. When ragweed is grown in conditions with twice the ambient level of carbon dioxide, the stalks sprout 10% taller than controls and produce 60% more pollen. Some of the health effects may lie ahead if the increase in very extreme weather events continues. Abrupt change of temperatures leading to heat waves or cold spells have become widespread, causing indirectly fatal illnesses, such as heat stress or hypothermia, as well as increasing death rates from heart and respiratory diseases. Statistics on mortality and hospital admissions show that death rates increase during extremely hot days, particularly among very old and very young people living in cities. Examples: The 2003 European heat wave involving temperatures that were 18F (10C) above the 30-year average, with no relief at night killed 21,000 to 35,000 people in five countries. Starting in August 2003, it caused more than 14,800 deaths in France. Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and the UK all reported excess mortality during the same period, with total deaths in the range of 35,000. In France, deaths were massively reported for people aged 75 and over (60%).

26

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Heat waves were also reported in 2003 in Andhra Pradesh, India, and caused the deaths of 3,000 people In July 1995, a heat wave killed more than 700 people in the Chicago area alone. Studies based on these types of statistics estimate that in Atlanta, for example, even a warming of about two degrees (F) would increase heatrelated deaths from 78 annually now to anywhere from 96 to 247 people per year. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientists project that warmer climates will increase malaria-carrying mosquitoes and put 65% of the worlds population at risk of malarial infection-an increase of 20% from the 1990s. In brief - global warming can soon become a risk factor for heat strokes, cardiovascular and respiratory problems. People with an ailing heart are especially vulnerable because the cardiovascular system has to work harder to cool the body in very hot weather. High air temperatures increase the ozone concentration at ground level. Natural ozone layer in the upper atmosphere protects the earth from the suns harmful ultraviolet radiation; but at ground level ozone becomes a harmful pollutant that damages lung tissue and aggravates asthma and other breathing diseases. Even in healthy individuals exposure to modest levels of ozone can cause nausea, chest pain and pulmonary congestion.

27

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax Worldwide Economical Effects:
Africa:

28

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

World Economic Impact of Climate Change as a share of Production with Moderate Warming (3.8o F) Country Loss (+) Gain (-) Without Catastrophe With Possibility of Catastrophe

Russia China United States Japan Eastern Europe Low Income OECD Europe Africa India Average

-1.60% -0.30% 0.01% 0.05% 0.20% 1.55% 0.90% 3.52% 2.66% 0.80%

-0.70% 0.20% 0.50% 0.50% 0.70% 2.60% 2.80% 3.90% 4.90% 1.90%

Note: Catastrophe is a climate event that would reduce income by 20% indefinitely, similar to the great depression.

29

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

:India:
India may be a long way from melting polar ice caps, but its economy will be among the worst affect on account of climate change. According to a report by Lehman Brothers India's GDP would dip by 5% for every two degree temperature rise. John Llewellyn Lehman Brothers global economist, said, climate changes are likely to affect India in a host of ways. Both India and Bangladesh would face problems because of rising sea levels. Agricultural productivity would also be affected as monsoons will be short with intense bursts. Water supply would also suffer because of lesser snowfall in the Himalayas, which provide water for 40% of the world's population. The effect on GDP will be non-linear. Initially, every 2 degree rise in temperature would result in a 3% dip in global GDP(Total GDP Of India is $1.38 Trillion, i.e. $41.4 Billion or Indian Rs.1.83 Trillion loss in GDP). The next 2 degrees would do even more damage to the economy. However for India the effects are likely to be much more harmful. For every 2 degree rise in temperature the effect on GDP is 5% ( $69 Billion and Indian Rs. 3 Trillion) and for the next 6 degrees it would be 15-16%( $ 207 Billion and Indian Rs.9.25 Trillion). He feels that India may lag China and be amongst the last of the major emitters to enact policy that seriously bears down on greenhouse gas emissions. According to Mr Llewellyn, there is both a direct and indirect effect due to climate changes and this differs from sector to sector and country to country. Incidentally the largest developers of clean development mechanism (CDM) projects are in China, while India hosts the largest number of these projects. According to Mr. Llewellyn these projects represents revenue transfers for countries like India. India will continue to reap the benefit for the next 5-10 years. At present, the carbon emitters in Europe pay up to euro 20 a tonne for their emissions. As per the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, countries will have to pay for high carbon emissions and can also trade with deficient countries. While, the developed world, led by USA and Europe are among the high polluters, India, China, along with most developing countries are among the deficient countries who can earn revenues from trading in these emissions.

30

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Japan:

1. 2. 3. 4.

New Climate Change Policy Program Integration of the environment and economy Step by step approach All sectors should make their utmost efforts to take actions. International cooperation.

Total Emissions as a Percentage of Base Year. (Note)In attaining these targets, the Government shall continue its emission reduction efforts beyond these targets where possible. The Government shall also study the way to use the Kyoto Mechanisms.

31

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


GHG Reduction in Energy Demand and Supply Sectors of Japan: Amendment of Energy Conservation Law o o o o o Application of energy management system to large commercial buildings etc. Promote appropriate energy conservation measures for buildings at the construction stage. Law Concerning the Use of New Energy by Electric Utilities (RPS law) Mandate electric utilities to achieve the fixed level of the electric power generated from new energy. RPS: renewable energy portfolio standards Climate Change Policy Law of Japan: o o o o The Kyoto Target Achievement Plan Large Emitters are encouraged to make a plan on measures for reducing GHG emissions. Centers for the Promotion of Activities to Prevent Global Warming The Global Warming Prevention Headquarters Taxation on Environmentally-friendly Cars In FY 2001, 2 million environmentally-friendly cars were purchased under reduced taxation. Reform of Existing Energy Tax Scheme Taxation on coal Expenditures focusing on GHG reduction measures Stakeholders Involvement in GHG Reduction Measures: o o o o o National and Local Government Initiatives Green procurement Official vehicles will be switched entirely to low-emission vehicles, such as hybrid cars, no later than FY 2004 Voluntary Action Plan by Nippon Keidanren Voluntary commitment to limit CO2 emissions in 2010 below its 1990 level Checked up on by the government A unique conference to discuss environmentally-friendly lifestyles (Wa-no-Kuni Kurashi Kaigi) Environmental Education Law

32

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Middle East: Rise in Sea Surface Temperature o Evidence through coral bleaching Rise in Global Temperature o Its effects on NAO, and intensity of seasons Rise in Sea level o Wipes out cities in: Egypt, Tunisia, Qatar, Libya, UAE, and Kuwait. Water Shortage More intense summers, and more intense winters. Increase in evaporation will reduce water supplies, and intensify rain seasons. Drought and the effect of surface run off on dams and cities. Inefficient use of water irrigation techniques The shortage of fresh water

33

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Policies to Curb Global Warming:

Energy Efficiency

o Green Buildings: Green building (also known as green construction or sustainable building) refers to a structure and using process that is environmentally responsible and resource-efficient throughout a building's lifecycle: from sitting to design, construction, operation, maintenance, renovation, and demolition. This practice expands and complements the classical building design concerns of economy, utility, durability, and comfort. o Energy Audit in Industry: An energy audit is an inspection, survey and analysis of energy flows for energy conservation in a building, process or system to reduce the amount of energy input into the system without negatively affecting the output(s). Increasingly in the last several decades, industrial and agricultural energy audits have exploded as the demand to lower increasingly expensive energy costs and move towards a sustainable future have made energy audit greatly important. he main issues of an audit process are: The analysis of building and utility data, including study of the installed equipment and analysis of energy bills; The survey of the real operating conditions; The understanding of the building behaviour and of the interactions with weather, occupancy and operating schedules; The selection and the evaluation of energy conservation measures; The estimation of energy saving potential; The identification of customer concerns and needs.

Renewable Energy

Solar Energy: Solar power is the conversion of sunlight into electricity, either directly using photovoltaics (PV), or indirectly using concentrated solar power (CSP) or to split water and create hydrogen fuel using techniques of artificial photosynthesis. Concentrated solar power systems use lenses or mirrors and tracking systems to focus a large area of sunlight into a small beam. Photovoltaics convert light into electric current using thephotoelectric effect. Commercial concentrated solar power plants were first developed in the 1980s, and the 354 MW SEGS CSP installation is the largest solar power plant in the world and is located in the Mojave Desert of California. Other large CSP plants include the Solnova Solar Power Station (150 MW) and the Andasol solar power station (100 MW), both in Spain. The 97 MW Sarnia Photovoltaic Power Plant in Canada, is the worlds largest photovoltaic plant. Wind Power: Wind power is the conversion of wind energy into a useful form of energy, such as using wind turbines to make electricity, windmills for mechanical power, windpumps for water pumping or drainage, or sails to propel ships.

34

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


At the end of 2010, worldwide nameplate capacity of wind-powered generators was 197 gigawatts (GW). Energy production was 430 TWh, which is about 2.5% of worldwide electricity usage; and has doubled in the past three years. Several countries have achieved relatively high levels of wind power penetration, such as 21% of stationary electricity production in Denmark, 18% in Portugal, 16% in Spain, 14% in Ireland and 9% in Germany in 2010.As of May 2009, 80 countries around the world are using wind power on a commercial basis. Large-scale wind farms are connected to the electric power transmissionnetwork; smaller facilities are used to provide electricity to isolated locations. Utility companies increasingly buy back surplus electricityproduced by small domestic turbines. Wind energy, as an alternative tofossil fuels, is plentiful, renewable, widely distributed, clean, and produces no greenhouse gas emissions during operation. The construction of wind farms is not universally welcomed because of their visual impact, but anyeffects on the environment from wind power are generally less problematic than those of any other power source. The intermittency of wind seldom creates problems when using wind power to supply a low proportion of total demand, but as the proportion rises, increased costs, a need to upgrade the grid, and a lowered ability to supplant conventional production may occur. Power management techniques such as exporting and importing power to neighboring areas or reducing demand when wind production is low, can mitigate these problems Geo Thermal Energy: Geothermal energy is thermal energy generated and stored in the Earth. Thermal energy is energy that determines the temperature of matter. Earth's geothermal energy originates from the original formation of the planet, fromradioactive decay of minerals, from volcanic activity, and from solar energy absorbed at the surface. The geothermal gradient, which is the difference in temperature between the core of the planet and its surface, drives a continuous conduction of thermal energy in the form of heat from the core to the surface. From hot springs, geothermal energy has been used for bathing sincePaleolithic times and for space heating since ancient Roman times, but it is now better known for electricity generation. Worldwide, about 10,715 megawatts(MW) of geothermal power is online in 24 countries. An additional 28 gigawatts of direct geothermal heating capacity is installed for district heating, space heating, spas, industrial processes, desalination and agricultural applications. Geothermal power is cost effective, reliable, sustainable, and environmentally friendly,but has historically been limited to areas near tectonic plate boundaries. Recent technological advances have dramatically expanded the range and size of viable resources, especially for applications such as home heating, opening a potential for widespread exploitation. Geothermal wells release greenhouse gases trapped deep within the earth, but these emissions are much lower per energy unit than those of fossil fuels. As a result, geothermal power has the potential to help mitigateglobal warming if widely deployed in place of fossil fuels. Nuclear Energy: Nuclear power is the use of sustained nuclear fission to generate heat and do useful work. Nuclear Electric Plants, Nuclear Ships and Submarines use controlled nuclear energy to heat water and produce steam, while in space, nuclear energy decays naturally in radioisotope thermoelectric generator. Scientists are experimenting with fusion energy for future generation, but these experiments do not currently generate useful energy. Cattenom Nuclear Power Plant Nuclear power provides about 6% of the world's energy and 1314% of the world's electricity, with the U.S., France, and Japan together accounting for about 50% of nuclear generated electricity. Also, more than 150 naval vessels using nuclear propulsion have been built.

35

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Nuclear power is controversial and there is an ongoing debate about the use of nuclear energy. Proponents, such as the World Nuclear Association and IAEA, contend that nuclear power is a sustainable energysource that reduces carbon emissions.Opponents, such as Greenpeace International and NIRS, believe that nuclear power poses many threats to people and the environment. Some serious nuclear and radiation accidents have occurred. Nuclear power plant accidents include the Chernobyl disaster (1986),Fukushima I nuclear accidents (2011), and the Three Mile Island accident (1979). Nuclear-powered submarine mishaps include theK-19 reactor accident (1961), the K-27 reactor accident (1968), and the K-431 reactor accident (1985). International research is continuing into safety improvements such as passively safe plants, and the possible future use of nuclear fusion.

Carbon Sequestration

Carbon sequestration is the capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) and may refer specifically to: o "The process of removing carbon from the atmosphere and depositing it in a reservoir."When carried out deliberately, this may also be referred to as carbon dioxide removal, which is a form of geo engineering. o The process of carbon capture and storage, where carbon dioxide is removed from flue gases, such as on power stations, before being stored in underground reservoirs. o Natural biogeochemical cycling of carbon between the atmosphere and reservoirs, such as by chemical weathering of rocks. o Carbon sequestration describes long-term storage of carbon dioxide or other forms of carbon to either mitigate or defer global warming. It has been proposed as a way to slow the atmospheric and marine accumulation of greenhouse gases, which are released by burning fossil fuels. Reducing Carbon Footprint: A carbon footprint is "the total set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by an organization, event, product or person." Greenhouse gases can be emitted through transport, land clearance, and the production and consumption of food, fuels, manufactured goods, materials, wood, roads, buildings, and services. For simplicity of reporting, it is often expressed in terms of the amount of carbon dioxide, or its equivalent of other GHGs, emitted. The concept name of the carbon footprint originates from ecological footprint discussion. The carbon footprint is a subset of the ecological footprint and of the more comprehensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). An individual's, nations, or organization's carbon footprint can be measured by undertaking a GHG emissions assessment. Once the size of a carbon footprint is known, a strategy can be devised to reduce it, e.g. by technological developments, better process and product management, changed Green Public or Private Procurement (GPP), carbon capture, consumption strategies, and others. The mitigation of carbon footprints through the development of alternative projects, such as solar or wind energy or reforestation, represents one way of reducing a carbon footprint and is often known as Carbon offsetting The main influences on carbon footprints include population, economic output, and energy and carbon intensity of the economy. These factors are the main targets of individuals and businesses in order to decrease carbon footprints. Scholars suggest the most effective way to decrease a carbon footprint is to either decrease the amount of energy needed for production or to decrease the dependence on carbon emitting fuels.

36

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax

Excel Sheet of Cost comparisons of Energy supply technologies: cost data.xlsx


Solar Tower Combined Solar Geothermal steam tower and PV panels 60 350MW/hr 10MW/hr 0 340 97.14% 15 300MW/hr 15MW/hr 15MW/hr 270 90.00% 30 200MW/hr 10MW/hr 10MW/hr 180 90.00% Wave Power Concetrated Solar PV 15 150MW/hr 5MW/hr 0 145 96.67% Parabolic Concentrated Solar steam 15 200MW/hr 5MW/hr 0 195 97.50%

2009 Estimate
60 200 MW/hr 5MW/hr 0 195 97.50%

Concentrated Solar Tower (steam) 15 100MW/hr 5MW/hr 2MW/hr 93 93.00%

$150,000,000 $150,000,000 $400,000,000 $250,000,000 $90,000,000 $1,040,000,000

$220,000,000 $250,000,000 $500,000,000 $350,000,000 $130,000,000 $1,450,000,000

$250,000,000 $500,000,000 $550,000,000 $350,000,000 $200,000,000 $1,850,000,000

$150,000,000 $250,000,000 $600,000,000 $350,000,000 $300,000,000 $1,650,000,000

$150,000,000 $150,000,000 $450,000,000 $250,000,000 $190,000,000 $1,190,000,000

$250,000,000 $250,000,000 $600,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 $1,650,000,000

$150,000,000 $250,000,000 $550,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $1,400,000,000

37

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


References:
http://environment.about.com/od/globalwarming/a/elninolanina.htm IPCC (2007). "1. Observed changes in climate and their effects. In (section): Summary for Policymakers. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))". Book publisher: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. Retrieved 2010-04-17. Extinction of species : http://www.globalwarming.org.in/effects-of-global-warming.php Birds on verge of extinction www.scincehead.com http://www.penguins-world.com/penguins-and-global-warming.html Ocean Acidification: EarthTrends Update: September 2007 "Ocean Acidification, the Other Threat of Rising CO2 Emissions" by Crystal Davis. Desertification: Shrinking African Lake Offers Lesson on Finite Resources Agriculture: 1. John Vidal (2005-06-30). "In the land where life is on hold".The Guardian. Retrieved 2008-01-22. 2. ^ "Climate change - only one cause among many for Darfur conflict". IRIN. 2007-06-28. Retrieved 2008-0122. 3. ^ Nina Brenjo (2007-07-30). "Looking to water to find peace in Darfur". Reuters AlertNet. Retrieved 200801-22. 4. IPCC (2007). "Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. pp. 722. Retrieved 2009-05-20. 5. NOAA (2006-01-30). "NOAA reports 2005 global temperature similar to 1998 record warm year". Press release. Retrieved 2007-07-26. 6. The Food, the Bad, and the Ugly Scherer, Glenn Grist July, 2005

Hurricane Cost : Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth A. Stanton Global Development and Environment Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center, Tufts University

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability . Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, Martin L.,

38

Economic Impacts of Global Warming A Reality and NOT a Hoax


Canziani, Osvaldo F., Palutikof, Jean P., van der Linden, Paul J., and Hanson, Clair E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 1000 pp. Titus, J., 1998: Rising Seas, Coastal Erosion, and the Takings Clause: How to Save Wetlands and Beaches Without Hurting Property Owners (PDF)(121 pp, 2.0MB) Maryland Law Review, vol. 57, no. 4, pp. 12791399. FEMA, 2000: Evaluation of Erosion Hazards . FEMA, 1991: Projected Impact of Relative Sea Level Rise on the National Flood Insurance Program (PDF) (70 pp, 690K) October 1991. EPA, 1989: The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Report to Congress. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA 230-05-89-052.

Issues in Middle East: Nature: Increased seasonality in Middle East temperatures during the last interglacial period, Felis Thomas, march 2004 Social Science Research Network: Climate Change and Water Resources in the Middle East: Vulnerability, Socio-Economic Impacts, and Adaptation, El-Faddel, Bou-Ziad, 2001

Cost Comparison of Energy Supply Technologies : http://www.unenergy.org/Popup%20pages/Comparecosts.html

39