SDI HBR 08-09

Global Warming Core

Global Warming Core

***Affirmative Mechanics and Impacts***.................................................................4 Yes Warming..............................................................................................................4 Yes Warming..............................................................................................................5 AT: No Warming – Satellites.......................................................................................6 AT: No Warming – Balloons........................................................................................7 AT: No Warming – City Temps....................................................................................8 Human Induced.........................................................................................................9 Human Induced.......................................................................................................10 Yes Runaway............................................................................................................11 Yes Runaway............................................................................................................12 Yes Runaway............................................................................................................13 Positive Feedbacks..................................................................................................14 Positive Feedback – New FF Finds............................................................................15 AT: Warming Inevitable – Sun..................................................................................16 AT: Warming Inevitable – Nature..............................................................................17 AT: Warming Inevitable – China...............................................................................18 AT: Warming Inevitable – China...............................................................................19 AT: Ice Age...............................................................................................................20 AT: Ice Age...............................................................................................................21 AT: So2 Screw..........................................................................................................22 AT: So2 Screw – Non-Unique....................................................................................23 AT: So2 Screw – Link Turn........................................................................................24 AT: Adaptation.........................................................................................................25 AT: Adaptation.........................................................................................................26 AT: CO2 Ag – Prefer Our Evidence............................................................................27 AT: CO2 Ag – Comparative Link Evidence................................................................28 AT: Co2 Ag – Decay DA............................................................................................29 ***Impacts***..........................................................................................................30 Extinction................................................................................................................30 Extinction................................................................................................................31 Biodiversity..............................................................................................................32 Biodiversity..............................................................................................................33 Biodiversity - Amazon..............................................................................................34 African Instability.....................................................................................................35 India-Pakistan War...................................................................................................36 India-Pakistan War Impact.......................................................................................37 Terrorism.................................................................................................................38 Billions of Deaths.....................................................................................................39 Disease....................................................................................................................40 Proliferation.............................................................................................................41 Agriculture – Aquifers..............................................................................................42 Agriculture...............................................................................................................43 Ocean Acidity..........................................................................................................44 Ocean Acidity MPX – Extinction...............................................................................45 Economy..................................................................................................................46 Negative Impacts Outweigh any Positive Impacts...................................................47 1

SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
***Negative Mechanics and Impact Takeouts***.....................................................48 No Warming.............................................................................................................48 No Runaway Warming.............................................................................................49 Warming Inevitable.................................................................................................50 Warming Inevitable.................................................................................................51 Warming Inevitable – China Outweighs...................................................................52 Alt Caus Frontline....................................................................................................53 Alt Caus Frontline....................................................................................................54 Indicts/Prodicts – General........................................................................................55 Indicts/Prodicts – General........................................................................................56 ***Impact Takeouts***.............................................................................................57 Sea Level Rise.........................................................................................................57 Sea Level Rise.........................................................................................................58 Biodiversity..............................................................................................................59 Biodiversity..............................................................................................................60 Biodiversity..............................................................................................................61 Biodiversity – Prefer Our Evidence..........................................................................62 Ocean Acidity..........................................................................................................63 Disease – Malaria.....................................................................................................64 Superstorms............................................................................................................65 Farmine....................................................................................................................66 Famine.....................................................................................................................67 Water Wars..............................................................................................................68 Water Wars..............................................................................................................69 Africa.......................................................................................................................70 AT: Big Impacts........................................................................................................71 ***Negative Offense***...........................................................................................72 *Ice Age Turn...........................................................................................................72 Ice Age Turn.............................................................................................................73 ...............................................................................................................................73 Ice Age MPX – Ag Collapse......................................................................................74 Co2 Solves Ice Age..................................................................................................75 Co2 Solves Ice Age..................................................................................................76 ...............................................................................................................................76 Ice Age – AT: Link Turn.............................................................................................77 Ice Age Coming.......................................................................................................78 *Adaptation DA – Link..............................................................................................79 Adaptation DA – Link...............................................................................................80 Adaptation DA.........................................................................................................81 Adaptation DA.........................................................................................................82 Adaptation Solves....................................................................................................83 Adaptation Solves....................................................................................................84 *Co2 Ag DA..............................................................................................................85 Co2 Ag DA...............................................................................................................86 Co2 Ag – Link...........................................................................................................87 Co2 Key to Ag – A2: Pests........................................................................................88 Co2 Key To Bio-D.....................................................................................................89 2

SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Co2 Key To Bio-D.....................................................................................................90 Food Prices MPX – Hunger.......................................................................................92 Food Prices Good – Dev Nations..............................................................................93 CO2 Solves Hunger..................................................................................................94 A2: Idso Indicts........................................................................................................95 A2: Loladze..............................................................................................................96 AT: Warming Collapses Ag.......................................................................................97 AT: Warming Collapses Ag.......................................................................................98 *So2 Screw DA.........................................................................................................99 So2 Screw – Link....................................................................................................100 So2 Screw – Link....................................................................................................101

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
***Affirmative Mechanics and Impacts*** Yes Warming
VAST SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS WARMING EXISTS, AND IS HUMAN INDUCED Monbiot 7 George, Professor @ Oxford Brookes University, Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning, pg. 5

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Yes Warming
100 PERCENT OF SCIENTIFIC PEER-REVIEWED JOURNALS AGREE WARMING IS REAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED Hendricks and Inslee 7 Bracken, Senior Fellow with American Progress, Jay, Representative from Washington, Apollo’s Fire, pg.7

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: No Warming – Satellites
PREVIOUS SATELLITE DATA DOESN’T DISPROVE WARMING Pearce 7 Fred, With Speed and Violence, environment and development consultant, pg. 12

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: No Warming – Balloons
NEW BALLOON TECHNOLOGY IS THE CAUSE OF TEMPERATURE DISPARITY – DOESN’T DISPROVE WARMING THEORY Pearce 7 Fred, With Speed and Violence, environment and development consultant, pg. 12

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: No Warming – City Temps
CITY TEMPS DON’T DISPROVE WARMING Pearce 7 Fred, With Speed and Violence, environment and development consultant, pg. 13

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Human Induced
CONSENSUS CO2 LEADS TO WARMING Hendricks and Inslee 7 Bracken, Senior Fellow with American Progress, Jay, Representative from Washington, Apollo’s Fire, pg. 7

SOME WARMING IS INEVITABLE – BUT SHOULD ACT NOW TO PREVENT RAPID CLIMATE VARIATIONS Chemical and Engineering News 5 Stark Effects From Global Warming, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/news/83/i12/8312globalwarming.html It may not be feasible to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C, Keller warned. “But if you want to limit the temperature increase to 2.5 °C, you have to decarbonize the economy during this century,” he said. In other words, society must start deriving energy from sources other than fossil fuel or find some way to sequester the CO2 from fossil fuel. Keller pointed out that “these predictions of threshold responses are deeply uncertain because of
uncertainties in the structural models and in observational constraints.” Resolving the uncertainties could have considerable economic benefits, he said. All of the scientists who spoke during this AAAS session agreed that, despite uncertainties about when climate thresholds will be reached, near-term action should be taken to reduce emissions. If society waits for the research that will nail down the

thresholds with greater clarity, it may well be too late to avoid exceeding them, they said. “If we don’t reduce CO2 emissions now, then future generations may bear the cost,” Keller said.

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Human Induced
WARMING IS HUMAN INDUCED – NO OTHER POSSIBLE EXPLANATION Rahmstorf 8 Stefan, Professor of Physics of the Oceans Potsdam University, Looking Beyond Kyoto, pg. 47

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Yes Runaway
SEVERAL TIPPING POINTS PROVE WARMING WILL BE RAPID Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 46-47

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Yes Runaway
WARMING WILL BE RAPID – COLLAPSES CIVILIZATION Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 48

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Yes Runaway
WARMING WILL BE RAPID – DISTINCTIVE TIPPING POINTS Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 88

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Positive Feedbacks
METHANE HYDRATES CAUSE RUNAWAY WARMING Leggett 1 Jeremy, chief executive of Solar Century, the UK's largest independent solar electric company, PhD and Geologist, Carbon War, pg. 36

FOREST FIRES CAUSE RUNAWAY WARMING Leggett 1 Jeremy, chief executive of Solar Century, the UK's largest independent solar electric company, PhD and Geologist, Carbon War, pg. 43

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Positive Feedback – New FF Finds
NEW FOSSIL FUEL FINDS ACTS AS A POSITIVE FEEDBACK Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 95

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: Warming Inevitable – Sun
RECENT TRENDS DISPROVE SUN’S EFFECTS ON WARMING Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 20

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: Warming Inevitable – Nature
NATURAL CAUSES DON’T LEAD TO UNSTABLE WARMING – HUMANS SHIFT THE BALANCE Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 233

NATURAL CAUSES DON’T DOOM GAINS Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 234

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: Warming Inevitable – China
CHINESE CONSUMPTION DOESN’T DOOM GAINS – THEIR EFFECT IS NEGLIGIBLE Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 180

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: Warming Inevitable – China
NOT TOO LATE TO PREVENT WARMING – EVEN DEVELOPING COUNTRY GROWTH CAN BE LIMITED BY US CUTS Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 239-240

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: Ice Age
GLOBAL WARMING LEADS TO ICE AGE Roach 5 John, National Geographic, Global Warming May Alter Atlantic Currents, Study Says, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/06/0627_050627_oceancurrent.html Acting like a conveyor belt, the current transports warm, surface waters toward the Poles and cold, deep waters toward the Equator. In the Atlantic Ocean, these warm surface waters push northward, releasing heat into the atmosphere and becoming cooler and denser. As they do, the waters sink and flow southward in the deep ocean. "The Atlantic circulation moves heat toward the Arctic, and this helps moderate wintertime temperatures in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere," said Ruth Curry, a physical oceanography research specialist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Curry noted that excessive amounts of freshwater dumped into the North Atlantic could alter seawater density and, in time, affect the flow of the North Atlantic ocean current. (Global warming has boosted freshwater runoff in the form of glacier meltwater and additional precipitation, Curry said.) Just how much extra freshwater it would take to alter the circulation system, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is a gray area of climate science. Broken Belt? Suffice it to say that the conveyor belt continues to work today. But freshwater runoff into the North Atlantic has increased in recent decades, and runoff is expected to increase further as global temperatures climb higher, Curry said. LINK TURN – GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES QUICK COOLING Hartmann 4 Thom, How Global Warming May Cause the Next Ice Age..., http://www.commondreams.org/cgi-bin/print.cgi?file=/views04/0130-11.htm While global warming is being officially ignored by the political arm of the Bush administration, and Al Gore's recent conference on the topic during one of the coldest days of recent years provided joke fodder for conservative talk show hosts, the citizens of Europe and the Pentagon are taking a new look at the greatest danger such climate change could produce for the northern hemisphere - a sudden shift into a new ice age. What they're finding is not at all comforting. In quick summary, if enough cold, fresh water coming from the melting polar ice caps and the melting glaciers of Greenland flows into the northern Atlantic, it will shut down the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe and northeastern North America warm. The worst-case scenario would be a full-blown return of the last ice age - in a period as short as 2 to 3 years from its onset - and the mid-case scenario would be a period like the "little ice age" of a few centuries ago that disrupted worldwide weather patterns leading to extremely harsh winters, droughts, worldwide desertification, crop failures, and wars around the world

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AT: Ice Age

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AT: So2 Screw
DIMMING POLLUTANTS STILL KILL MILLIONS Shah 5 Anup, Global Dimming, http://www.globalissues.org/EnvIssues/GlobalWarming/globaldimming.asp Global warming results from the greenhouse effect caused by, amongst other things, excessive amounts of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere from fossil fuel burning. It would seem then, that the other by-products which cause global dimming may be an ironic savior. A deeper look at this, however, shows that unfortunately this is not the case. Health and environmental effects The pollutants that lead to global dimming also lead to various human and environmental problems, such as smog, respiratory problems, and acid rain. The impacts of global dimming itself, however, can be devastating. Millions from Famines in the Sahel in the 70s and 80s The death toll that global dimming may have already caused is thought to be massive. Climatologists studying this phenomenon believe that the reflection of heat have made waters in the northern hemisphere cooler. As a result, less rain has formed in key areas and crucial rainfall has failed to arrive over the Sahel in Northern Africa. In the 1970s and 1980s, massive famines were caused by failed rains which climatologists had never quite understood why they had failed. The answers that global dimming models seemed to provide, the documentary noted, has led to a chilling conclusion: “what came out of our exhaust pipes and power stations [from Europe and North America] contributed to the deaths of a million people in Africa, and afflicted 50 million more” with hunger and starvation. Scientists said that the impact of global dimming might not be in the millions, but billions. The Asian monsoons bring rainfall to half the world’s population. If this air pollution and global dimming has a detrimental impact on the Asian monsoons some 3 billion people could be affected. PLAN SOLVES THE IMPACT – REDUCES SO2 AND CO2 AT THE SAME TIME Shah 5 Anup, Global Dimming, http://www.globalissues.org/EnvIssues/GlobalWarming/globaldimming.asp Climatologists are stressing that the roots of both global dimming causing pollutants and global warming causing greenhouse gases have to be dealt with together and soon. We may have to change our way of life, the documentary warned. While this has been a message for over 20 years, as part of the climate change concerns, little has actually been done. “Rapidly,” the documentary concluded, “we are running out of time.”

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: So2 Screw – Non-Unique
SO2 DECREASING NOW NASA 7 Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists, http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html A new NASA study has found that an important counter-balance to the warming of our planet by greenhouse gases – sunlight blocked by dust, pollution and other aerosol particles – appears to have lost ground. The thinning of Earth’s “sunscreen” of aerosols since the early 1990s could have given an extra push to the rise in global surface temperatures. The finding, published in the March 16 issue of Science, may lead to an improved understanding of recent climate change. In a related study published last week, scientists found that the opposing forces of global warming and the cooling from aerosol-induced "global dimming" can occur at the same time. BRIGHTENING IS HAPPENING NOW – DIMMING THEORY IS HISTORICAL, NOT PRESCRIPTIVE NASA 7 Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists, http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html Sun-blocking aerosols around the world steadily declined (red line) since the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, according to satellite estimates. The decline appears to have brought an end to the "global dimming" earlier in the century., NASA The NASA study also sheds light on the puzzling observations by other scientists that the amount of sunlight reaching Earth's surface, which had been steadily declining in recent decades, suddenly started to rebound around 1990. This switch from a "global dimming" trend to a "brightening" trend happened just as global aerosol levels started to decline, Mishchenko said.

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: So2 Screw – Link Turn
AEROSOL LEAD TO WARMING NASA 7 Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists, http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html Further simulations using one of the Goddard climate models revealed that aerosols blocking sunlight or trapping some of the sun's heat high in the atmosphere were the major driver in 20th-century global dimming. "Much of the dimming trend over the Northern Hemisphere stems from these direct aerosol effects," Romanou said. "Aerosols have other effects that contribute to dimming, such as making clouds more reflective and longer-lasting. These effects were found to be almost as important as the direct effects."

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AT: Adaptation
DOESN’T SOLVE GLOBALLY Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 62-63

WARMING WILL BE TOO FAST FOR SPECIES TO ADAPT Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 116

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: Adaptation
FOCUS ON ADAPTATION LEADS TO INCREASED CO2 USE Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 96

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: CO2 Ag – Prefer Our Evidence
PREVIOUS CO2 AG ADVOCATES WERE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC – THE PRESENCE OF OZONE AND OTHER POLLUTANTS LIMIT YIELD EFFECTS Monbiot 7 George, Professor @ Oxford Brookes University, Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning, pg. 7

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: CO2 Ag – Comparative Link Evidence
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF WARMING OUTWEIGH CO2 BENEFITS Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 197

Even though warming increases arable land, the negative impacts outweigh. Lau 2007 <Evan, Department of Organismic and. Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 4/20, Humans the major cause of global warming the widely accepted view, The Straits Times, lexis> Mr Lay also raised the point that 'global warming makes colder regions more habitable and increases food production'. While it is true that global warming may increase arable land, the negative impacts from global warming vastly outweigh their positive ones. / Aside from the threat of rising sea levels, other dramatic negative impacts of global warming include: (i) in vast areas of boreal Canada and Russia, previously frozen peatlands are warming up and releasing carbon dioxide and methane, both greenhouse gases, thus increasing the warming trend, (ii) increasing frequency of heatwaves (leading to heat-related mortalities) in summer in central Europe, (3) warmer and drier conditions in Sahelian Africa decreasing the length of growing season and hence crop yield, (4) disappearances of alpine glaciers and their projected effects on water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
AT: Co2 Ag – Decay DA
CARBON SPARKS INCREASED DECAY – TURNS CO2’S BENEFITS Pearce 7 Fred, With Speed and Violence, environment and development consultant, pg. 75

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***Impacts*** Extinction
WARMING LEADS TO EXTINCTION – QUICK TIME FRAME Pearce 7 Fred, With Speed and Violence, environment and development consultant, pg. 240-241

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Extinction
WARMING LEADS TO EXTINCTION
Henderson 2K5
(Hill, March 16, pg. http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson160305.htm)

In September 2000, world-renowned physicist Stephen Hawking was widely quoted in the press as being very worried about runaway global warming: "I am afraid the atmosphere might get hotter and hotter until it will be like Venus with boiling sulfuric acid," said Hawking. "I am worried about the greenhouse effect." If we go over this cliff no more

humanity; the extinction of almost every existing species except some bacteria; the end of life on Earth as we know it. I have a re-occurring dream: I’m a young guy again, in a car with some friends traveling at night along the mountain
two lane blacktop of my youth. We’re going way too fast, way too fast. We’re doing things like passing blind and almost loosing it on corners. In the moonlight I can see the lake far below. I know an accident is going to happen but they won’t listen to me: shut up chicken. They are focused on the speed, the rush, on keeping the car on the road. It is insane and I’m trapped into going along with them. Wake up. An exponential increasing population with an economy growing at two percent, compounding in mere decades after centuries of industrialization based upon fossil fuel use, has us speeding recklessly, growing way, way too fast in a finite world. Science has a convincing understanding of global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels, a cause and effect first postulated more then a century ago. We are already in the skid – the accident is happening. The already existing greenhouse gases will continue to trap heat over the next century. It might be too late already to overt runaway global warming. If we know that reckless street racing leads to death, why do we allow the production and merchandising of cars designed, engineered and promoted to street race? If we know that continuing fossil fuel use risks our lives today and maybe human extinction, why do we still have an economy almost totally dependent upon fossil fuels while possible alternative renewable energy sources languish relatively ignored? Where fossil fuel exploitation is still subsidized by governments?

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Biodiversity
WARMING KILLS AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF ALL SPECIES Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 177

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Biodiversity
WARMING LEADS TO EXTINCTION – BIODIVERSITY COLLAPSE Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 118-119

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
Biodiversity - Amazon
WARMING LEADS TO AMAZON DEFORESTATION Brandenburg and Paxson 2k Both PhDs, Dead Mars, Dying Earth, pg. 224-225

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SDI HBR 08-09 Global Warming Core
African Instability
WARMING LEADS TO AFRICAN FAMINE – ADAPTATION DOESN’T SOLVE Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 125

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India-Pakistan War
WARMING LEADS TO INDIA-PAKISTAN CONFLICT Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 162

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India-Pakistan War Impact
NUCLEAR WAR UPI 4
Nuclear War A Real Fear In South Asia Washington (UPI) Dec 17 2004 http://www.spacedaily.com/news/nuclearindia-pakistan-04k.html

No conventional war between India and Pakistan will remain limited for long and will gradually lead to a full-scale war and ultimately to a nuclear conflict, warns a study by a Pakistani defense
official. The study, presented recently at a Washington think-tank, looks at various scenarios that could lead to an all-out war between the two South Asian neighbors, which conducted a series of nuclear tests in May 1998 and also possess nuclear-capable missiles. fought three wars since their independence from Britain in 1947 and

India and Pakistan have are still engaged in 57-year-old conflict in the

Himalayan valley of Kashmir which caused two of these three wars. Most of the possible war scenarios discussed in this study also focus on Kashmir where most international observers believe even a small conflict has the potential of escalating into a full-fledged war. Recently, both India and Pakistan have agreed to resolve their differences through dialogue and have taken several steps lessen tensions. The study by the Pakistani defense official envisages possible Pakistani response to a various proposals being discussed in India's defense circles for dealing with the Kashmir insurgency, which India blames on Pakistan-backed militants. The author, who wished not to be identified, argues that recently India has put forward the concept of a limited conventional war aimed at achieving a specific political objective, such as putting down the uprising in Kashmir. But the author warns that what India may see as a limited conventional war, may not be accepted to Pakistan as such. Similarly, what India defines as limited political perspective, may have a different implication for Pakistan, he adds. The author points out that most Western analysts and scholars are not comfortable with India's limited war doctrine and they also believe that a limited war between India and Pakistan cannot remain limited for long.

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Terrorism
WARMING SPARKS GLOBAL REFUGEE FLOWS AND TERRORISM Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 179

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Billions of Deaths
WARMING WILL KILL BILLIONS AND RISKS EXTINCTION Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 236-237

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Disease
Global Warming will lead to an increase in disease worldwide Santini, 2007 (Jean-Louis; “Global warming to increase infectious disease: study”; Agence France
Presse; September 18 – Lexis)

Global warming likely will lead to an increase in infectious disease around the world, as viruses, microbes and the agents that spread them flourish, experts at a medical conference warned Tuesday. The problem is already evident and has become particularly acute in just the past decade, according to researchers at a meeting of the American Society for Microbiology. "Years ago we probably would not be talking about this topic," said Anthony McMichael, lead scientist on a study entitled "The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health." "Human-induced climate change ... is proceeding a little bit faster than we would have expected," said McMichael, an epidemiologist at the University of Canberra in Australia. Experts cite West Nile virus as a disease whose spread has been facilitated by global warming. Native to Africa, West Nile can be found today throughout Canada and the United States, according to McMichael, who explained that a rise in North American temperatures since 1999 has allowed non-native mosquitoes that transmit the virus to thrive. Jim Sliwa, spokesman for the American Society for Microbiology, underscored the potential health crisis posed by a rise in world temperatures. "We know that climate change is going to change the pattern of infectious diseases," said Sliwa at the conference, which, with some 12,000 physicians and scientists, is billed as the world's biggest on disease-causing microbes. For example, he said, "the malaria line in mountainous regions will continue to rise," as global average temperature increases. McMichael also predicted a rise in the incidence of "year-round influenza" in the tropics. Near the equator, he said "there is no influenza season, so as the temperature rises the tropical areas expand and we'll get more year-round influenza." Climate change experts believe that the earth's temperature is likely to rise by 1.8-4.0 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. Experts believe diseases worsened by global warming already have contributed to the deaths of between 150,000 and five million people per year. In addition to an increase in diseases like malaria and dengue fever, global warming is likely heighten the incidence of diarrhea, heat waves, drought, floods and malnutrition. To prevent a global warming drive health crisis, McMichael said, researchers will have to begin to think about the interconnectedness of climate and infectious diseases. "We are going to have to think within larger integrated terms (and) employ a more ecological perspective," he said at the conference, which runs through Thursday. However, McMichael said there are some areas where infectious disease may be less virulent as a result of global warming. "In West Africa, for example, the rate of (malaria) is likely to decline, as future conditions are getting too hot and too dry for the mosquito," he said, adding that there has been a 25 percent decline in rainfall over the last three decades in the Sahara region of Africa. "Sub-Saharan Africa almost certainly is in an early stage of a climate change process which we know is tending to displace rainfall systems," McMichael said.

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Proliferation
Global Warming makes proliferation inevitable Schwartz and Randall, 2004 (Peter, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal
Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug of the California-based Global Business Network; “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security”; Commissioned by the U.S. Pentagon; http://www.kelber.de/medien/doks/Pentagon-Studie%20Klimawandel.pdf)

As famine, disease, and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change, many countries’ needs will exceed their carrying capacity. This will create a sense of desperation, which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance. Imagine eastern European countries, struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food, water, and energy, eyeing Russia, whose population is already in decline, for access to its grain, minerals, and energy supply. Or, picture Japan, suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply, eying Russia’s Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes. Envision Pakistan, India, and China – all armed with nuclear weapons – skirmishing at their borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and arable land. Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights – leading to conflicts at sea. And, countries including the United States would be likely to better secure their borders. With over 200 river basins touching multiple nations, we can expect conflict over access to water for drinking, irrigation, and transportation. The Danube touches twelve nations, the Nile runs though nine, and the Amazon runs through seven. In this scenario, we can expect alliances of convenience. The United States and Canada may become one, simplifying border controls. Or, Canada might keep its hydropower—causing energy problems in the US. North and South Korea may align to create one technically savvy and nuclear-armed entity. Europe may act as a unified block – curbing immigration problems between European nations – and allowing for protection against aggressors. Russia, with its abundant minerals, oil, and natural gas may join Europe. In this world of warring states, nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. As cooling drives up demand, existing hydrocarbon supplies are stretched thin. With a scarcity of energy supply – and a growing need for access -- nuclear energy will become a critical source of power, and this will accelerate nuclear proliferation as countries develop enrichment and reprocessing capabilities to ensure their national security. China, India, Pakistan, Japan, South Korea, Great Britain, France, and Germany will all have nuclear weapons capability, as will Israel, Iran, Egypt, and North Korea.

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Agriculture – Aquifers
WARMING COLLAPSES AQUIFERS – KILLS AG AND LEADS TO STARVATION Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 30-31

WARMING COLLAPSES AG – DROUGHT, PESTS, FOREST FIRES, AND DECREASED SOIL MOISTURE Hendricks and Inslee 7 Bracken, Senior Fellow with American Progress, Jay, Representative from Washington, Apollo’s Fire, pg. 7

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Agriculture
WARMING COLLAPSES AG – ACTS AS A POSITIVE FEEDBACK Hendricks and Inslee 7 Bracken, Senior Fellow with American Progress, Jay, Representative from Washington, Apollo’s Fire, pg. 172

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Ocean Acidity
CO2 LEADS TO OCEAN ACIDITY – THREATENS BIODIVERSITY COLLAPSE Monbiot 7 George, Professor @ Oxford Brookes University, Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning, pg. 9

EVEN ABSENT GLOBAL WARMING, CO2 WILL ACIDIFY OCEANS AND COLLAPSE BIODIVERSITY Rahmstorf 8 Stefan, Professor of Physics of the Oceans Potsdam University, Looking Beyond Kyoto, pg. 36

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Ocean Acidity MPX – Extinction
OCEAN ACIDITY RISKS HUMAN SURVIVAL Hendricks and Inslee 7 Bracken, Senior Fellow with American Progress, Jay, Representative from Washington, Apollo’s Fire, pg. 8

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Economy
WARMING COLLAPSES THE ECONOMY Leggett 1 Jeremy, chief executive of Solar Century, the UK's largest independent solar electric company, PhD and Geologist, Carbon War, pg. 149

NUCLEAR WAR Mead, 92 [Walter Russel Mead, Senior Fellow in American FoPo @ the Council on Foreign Relations, World Policy Institute, 1992] Hundreds of millions, billions, of people have pinned their hopes on the international market . They and their leaders have embraced market principles and drawn closer to the west because they believe the system can work for them? But what if it can’t? What if the global economy stagnates or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period of international conflict: North against South, rich against poor. Russia, China India, these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to the world than Germany and Japan did in the 30s.

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Negative Impacts Outweigh any Positive Impacts
NEGATIVE IMPACTS OUTWEIGH POSITIVE IMPACT OF WARMING Brown 2 Donald, Phillip R. Allen Professor of Economics, American Heat, pg. 204

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***Negative Mechanics and Impact Takeouts*** No Warming
WARMING IS NOT REAL – TONS OF QUALIFIED SCIENTISTS AGREE, THERE NAMES ARE BLEMISHED BUT THERE SCIENCE IS CORRECT Ball 7 Tim, Chairman of the Natural Resources Stewardship Project, Climatology Professor, http://www.iceagenow.com/Global_Warming_the_Greatest_Deception.htm Global Warming, as we think we know it, doesn't exist. And I am not the only one trying to make people open up their eyes and see the truth. But few listen, despite the fact that I was the first Canadian Ph.D. in Climatology and I have an extensive background in climatology, especially the reconstruction of past climates and the impact of climate change on human history and the human condition. Few listen, even though I have a Ph.D, (Doctor of Science) from the
University of London, England and that for 32 years I was a Professor of Climatology at the University of Winnipeg. For some reason (actually for many), the World is not listening. Here is why. Global Warming is not due to human contribution of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). This in fact is the greatest deception in the history of science. We are wasting time, energy and trillions of dollars while creating unnecessary fear and consternation over an issue with no scientific justification. No sensible person seeks conflict, especially with governments, but if we don't pursue the truth, we are lost as individuals and as a society. That is why I insist on saying that there is no evidence that we are, or could ever cause global climate change. And, recently, Yuri A. Izrael, Vice President of the United Nations sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed this statement. So how has the world come to believe that something is wrong? Let me stress I am not denying the (global warming) phenomenon has occurred. The world has warmed since

climate changes are well within natural variability and explained quite easily by changes in the sun. But there is nothing unusual going on. Since I obtained my doctorate in climatology from the University of London, Queen Mary College, England my career has spanned two climate cycles. Temperatures declined from 1940 to 1980 and in the early 1970's global cooling became the consensus. This proves that consensus is not a scientific fact. By the 1990's temperatures appeared to
1680, the nadir of a cool period called the Little Ice Age (LIA) that has generally continued to the present. These have reversed and Global Warming became the consensus. It appears I'll witness another cycle before retiring, as the major mechanisms and the global temperature trends now indicate a cooling. No doubt passive acceptance yields less stress, fewer personal attacks and makes career progress easier. What I have experienced in my personal life during the last years makes me understand why most people choose not to speak out; job security and fear of reprisals. Even in University, where free speech and challenge to

I was accused by Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki of being paid by oil companies. That is a lie. Apparently he thinks if the fossil fuel companies pay you have an agenda. So if Greenpeace, Sierra Club or governments pay there is no agenda and only truth and enlightenment? I am not alone in this journey against the prevalent myth. Several well-known names have also raised their voices. Michael Crichton, the scientist, writer and filmmaker is one of them. In his latest book, "State of Fear" he takes time to explain, often in surprising detail, the flawed science behind Global Warming and other imagined environmental crises. Another cry in the wilderness is Richard Lindzen's. He is an atmospheric physicist and a professor of meteorology at MIT, renowned for his research in dynamic meteorology especially atmospheric waves. He is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences and has held positions at the University of Chicago, Harvard University and MIT. Linzen frequently speaks out against the notion that significant Global Warming is caused by humans. Yet nobody seems to listen.
prevailing wisdoms are supposedly encouraged, academics remain silent. In another instance,

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No Runaway Warming
POSITIVE FEEDBACKS PREVENT RUNAWAY WARMING Lindzen 8 Richard, Harvard trained atmospheric physicist and the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto, pg. 13

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Warming Inevitable
EVEN WITH CO2 CUTS, CAN’T PREVENT WARMING Times Online 8 5/23, Copenhagen Consensus: global warming, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3992368.ece There is unequivocal evidence that humans are changing the planet’s climate. We are already committed to average temperature increases of about 0.6°C, even without further rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The world has focused on mitigation — reducing carbon emissions — a close look at the costs and benefits suggests that relying on this alone is a poor approach. Option One: Continuing focus on mitigation Even if mitigation — economic measures like taxes or trading systems — succeeded in capping emissions at 2010 levels, then the world would pump out 55 billion tonnes of carbon emissions in 2100, instead of 67 billion tonnes. It is a difference of 18 per cent: the benefits would remain smaller than 0.5 per cent of the world’s GDP for more than 200 years. These benefits simply are not large enough to make the investment worthwhile. TOO MUCH CO2 HAS ALREADY BEEN RELEASED – CAN’T PREVENT WARMING Longley 8 Robert, Global Warming Inevitable This Century, NSF Study Finds, http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/technologyandresearch/a/climatetochange.htm Despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global warming and a greater increase in sea level are inevitable during this century, according to a new study performed by a team of climate modelers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. Indeed, say the researchers, whose work was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), globally averaged surface air temperatures would still rise one degree Fahrenheit (about a half degree Celsius) by the year 2100, even if no more greenhouse gases were added to the atmosphere. And the resulting transfer of heat into the oceans would cause global sea levels to rise another 4 inches (11 centimeters) from thermal expansion alone. The team's findings are published in this week's issue of the journal "Science." “This study is another in a series that employs increasingly sophisticated simulation techniques to understand the complex interactions of the Earth,” says Cliff Jacobs of NSF’s atmospheric sciences division.

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Warming Inevitable
30 YEAR TIME GAP PREVENTS SOLVING WARMING – ANY EFFECT TAKES DECADES Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 47

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Warming Inevitable – China Outweighs
CHINESE EMISSIONS PREVENTS GAINS FROM US CUTS Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 194

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Alt Caus Frontline
BUILDING INEFFICIENCIES MAKE CO2 USE INEVITABLE Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 97

INDUSTRY MAKES CO2 USE INEVITABLE Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 103

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Alt Caus Frontline
AG MAKES CO2 USE INEVITABLE Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 104

DEFO MAKES WARMING INEVITABLE Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 106

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Indicts/Prodicts – General
PUBLIC FUNDING IS WORSE – CREATES AN INCENTIVE TO MAKE SIMPLE STATEMENTS Jaworowski 3
Zbigniew Jaworowski, Winter 2003-2004, http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles%202004/Winter2003-4/global_warming.pdf

In 1989, Stephen Schneider advised: “To capture the public imagination . . . we have to . . . make simplified dramatic statements, and little mention of any doubts one might have. . . . Each of us has to decide the right balance between being effective and being honest.”3 This turned out to be an “effective” policy: Since 1997, each of approximately 2,000 American climate scientists (only 60 of them with Ph.D. degrees) received an average of $1 million annually for research;4, 5 on a world scale, the annual budget for climate research runs to $5 billion.6 It is interesting that in the United States, most of this money goes toward discovering the change of global climate and its causes, while Europeans apparently believe that man-made warming is already on, and spend money mostly on studying the effects of warming. THEIR SOURCES ARE BIASED TOO – INCENTIVE FOR ALARMISM Gunter 3/10
Lorne, “The Media Snowjo lobal Warming,” 3/10/2k8, http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=364265

Just how pervasive the bias at most news outlets is in favour of climate alarmism -- and how little interest most outlets have in reporting any research that diverges from the alarmist orthodoxy -- can be seen in a Washington Post story on the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), announced last week in New
York. The NIPCC is a counter to the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. The group was unveiled this week in Manhattan at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, along with its scientific report claiming that natural factors -- the sun, El Ninos and La Ninas, volcanoes, etc, -- not human sources are behind

The Washington Post's first instincts (not just on its opinion pages, but in its news coverage, too) were cleverly to sew doubt of the group's credibility by pointing out to readers that many of the participants had ties to conservative politicians, such as former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, and that the conference sponsor -- the Heartland Institute -- received money from oil companies and health care corporations.
global warming.

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Indicts/Prodicts – General
PUBLICLY FUNDED SCIENTISTS HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO MAKE UP RESULTS Frosch 8 Kermit, 1/14, http://www.scragged.com/articles/the-hot-air-of-climate-change-part-8.aspx we have government funding of science, via grants. Many if not most science professors who are , may be receiving their paycheck from the university, but the actual money is coming from a government research grant. If the government grant ends, so does their salary. Which brings us to the first reason why global warming has become the force that it is. Dr. John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and a professional meteorologist (that is to say, a professional student of the weather), gives this explanation: Scientists know that if they do research and results are in no way alarming, their research will gather dust on the shelf and their research careers will languish. But if they do research that sounds alarms, they will become well known and respected and receive scholarly awards and, very importantly, more research dollars will come flooding their way. So when these researchers did climate change studies in the late 90's they were eager to produce findings that would be important and be widely noticed and trigger more research funding. It was easy for them to manipulate the data to come up with the results they wanted to make headlines and at the same time drive their environmental agendas. Then their like minded PhD colleagues
Thus, doing research at universities reviewed their work and hastened to endorse it without question.

CLIMATE SCIENTISTS HAVE UNETHICALLY SUPPRESSED DISSENTING VIEWS Morano 3/6
Marc, “Climate Skeptics Reveal ‘Horror Stories’ of Scientific Suppression,” 2k8, http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=865dbe39-802a-23ad-4949-ee9098538277

Scientists skeptical of man-made climate fears meeting at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change in New York City described the “absolute horror stories” about how some scientific journals have engaged in “outrageous and unethical behavior” in attempting to suppress them from publishing their work in peer-reviewed journals. The March 2-4 groundbreaking conference, which featured about 100 speakers with over 500 people
attending, presented the report of a team of international scientists who formed a group to counter the UN IPCC.

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***Impact Takeouts*** Sea Level Rise
SEA LEVEL RISE WON’T CAUSE MASSIVE DAMAGE – EMPIRICALLY PROVEN Dunn 7
J.R., “Who’s Afraid of Global Warming?”, 2/16/2k7, http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/02/whos_afraid_of_global_warming.html *LCO = the Little Climatic Optimum (LCO), a period stretching roughly from the 10th to the 13th centuries, in which the average temperature was anything from 1 to 3 degrees centigrade higher than it is today
This is one of the most popular topics among global warming advocates, probably because it lends itself to spectacular visuals: maps of Florida "after the warming" are

Speculations as to the height of the inundation vary from roughly a meter in the 2000 IPCC report to twenty feet from filmmaker Al Gore to double that from Australian activist Tim Flannery. And during the LCO? Over three centuries, the highest oceanic level was eighteen inches above the previous norm. That foot-and-a-half may sound like quite a lot, but the damage it caused appears to be minimal. There are no records of massive flooding either in Europe or elsewhere. No seacoast villages were relocated that we know of. Florida was certainly not overwhelmed. It may only be a coincidence
commonplace, while the honest and well-researched film An Inconvenient Truth features scenes of an underwater New York City. that the IPCC's new report has halved its estimate of sea level rise to the same range as occurred during the LCO. While such a rise may cause some problems, it is not Noah's Flood, and shouldn't be treated as such.

SEA LEVEL RISE ISN’T ANTHROPOGENIC Newman 3/14
Dr Muriel Newman, Director NZ Centre for Political Research, “Unstoppable Climate Change,” 3/14/2k8, http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO0803/S00141.htm

Claims that the melting snow of Mt Kilimanjaro is caused by global warming were shown to be wrong. In fact, the snow has been known to be melting since 1880 - deforestation at its base has reduced cloud cover increasing exposure to the sun. Predictions of dramatic sea level rises were categorically discredited. The sea has been rising by a constant 18cm a century (1.8mm a year) and is thought to be driven by the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The fact that this started an estimated 18,000 years ago and is expected to continue for another 7,000 years, shows that humans are not to blame!

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Sea Level Rise
INTERVENING ACTORS SOLVE – WON’T BE A MASSIVE RISE Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 61

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Biodiversity
NO SPECIES LOSS – THEY’LL ADAPT Dunn 7
J.R., “Who’s Afraid of Global Warming?”, 2/16/2k7, http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/02/whos_afraid_of_global_warming.html *LCO = the Little Climatic Optimum (LCO), a period stretching roughly from the 10th to the 13th centuries, in which the average temperature was anything from 1 to 3 degrees centigrade higher than it is today

though there's no concrete evidence of a single species actually being threatened by warmer temperatures. As with much warming rhetoric, this seems to be sheer speculation, based on the premise that certain "niche" organisms will die out as their marginal environments are changed. The problem with this thesis is that no species appears to have vanished as a result of the LCO. While it's certainly possible that a marginal species limited to a single locale might have suffered, the simple assumption cannot be made. Certainly no massive die-off as predicted by the more hysterical Greens and their media allies ever took place. Warming and cooling has occurred continually throughout the geological history of the planet earth. It's safe to assume that most organisms have developed means of dealing with them.
Mass extinction is another favorite of warming advocates, with figures of up to "one-quarter" to "one-half" of all species disappearing,

WARMING WON’T KILL SPECIES Singer and Avery 7 Fred, Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia, Dennis, director of the Center for Global Food Issues at the Hudson Institute, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 years, pg. 16

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Biodiversity
HUNTING OUTWEIGHS WARMING Singer and Avery 7 Fred, Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia, Dennis, director of the Center for Global Food Issues at the Hudson Institute, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 years, pg. 77

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Biodiversity
WARMING INCREASES BIODIVERSITY Singer and Avery 7 Fred, Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia, Dennis, director of the Center for Global Food Issues at the Hudson Institute, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 years, pg. 82

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Biodiversity – Prefer Our Evidence
WARMING IMPROVES BIODIVERSITY – MEDIA BIAS MEANS SPECULATE ON THEIR EVIDENCE Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 7

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Ocean Acidity
OCEANS IMPACTS ARE INEVITABLE – EVEN WITH EMISSIONS CUTS Lynas 7 Mark, Environmental Activist, Educational focus on Politics and History, Six Degrees, pg. 76

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Disease – Malaria
EVEN IF THERE IS A SPREAD, IT ONLY RISKS 3 MILLION LIVES Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 94-95

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Superstorms
WARMING MAKES IT HARDER FOR STORMS TO FORM Kaye 8
Ken, 1/23, http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2008/jan/23/scientists-warm-seas-may-mean-fewer-hurricanes/?printer=1/ Following in the footsteps of an earlier study, government scientists on Tuesday said warmer oceans should translate to fewer Atlantic

As sea surface temperatures warm globally, sustained vertical wind shear increases. Wind shear makes it difficult for storms to form and grow.
hurricanes striking the United States. The reason:
journal Geophysical Research Letters.

"Using data extending back to the middle 19th century, we found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. landfalling hurricanes when the global ocean is warmed up," Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer and climate scientist with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, said in a prepared statement. Sang-Ki Lee, of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies at the University of Miami, worked with Wang on the study. Their findings are to be published on Wednesday in the

The study found that the warming of the Pacific and Indian oceans plays an important role in determining hurricane activity in the Atlantic. A study released in December found that as the Atlantic basin becomes hotter, hurricane intensity likely won't increase and might even deflate somewhat. That study found that ocean's heat acts to stabilize the upper atmosphere, which, in turn, hurts a storm's ability to build. It was
conducted by Gabriel Vecchi, a NOAA research oceanographer and Brian Soden, an associate professor of oceanography at the University of Miami.

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Farmine
WARMING WON’T LEAD TO FAMINE Singer and Avery 7
Fred, Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia, Dennis, director of the Center for Global Food Issues at the Hudson Institute, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 years, pg. 16

WARMING’S IMPACT ON AG WILL BE MINIMAL Lomborg 7
Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 103

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Famine
HIGH YIELD SOLVES FAMINE Singer and Avery 7 Fred, Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia, Dennis, director of the Center for Global Food Issues at the Hudson Institute, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 years, pg. 80-81

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Water Wars
SUPPLY IS NOT THE PROBLEM – MANAGEMENT OUTWEIGHS Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 109

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Water Wars
WARMING REDUCES WATER SHORTAGES Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 109

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Africa
WARMING MAY HURT AFRICA, BUT THE IMPACTS ARE OUTWEIGHED BY MORTALITY DECREASES GLOBALLY Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 40

TONS OF ALTERNATIVE CAUSALITIES TO AFRICAN CONFLICT Madlala-Routledge and Leibenberg 4 DEVELOPMENTAL PEACEKEEPING, Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge, Ex Deputy Minister of Defence, now Deputy Minister of Health, And Sybert Liebenberg (Associate, CSIR Boutek), presented this paper at the African Defence Summit 2004, 13 July, Gallagher Estate, Midrand, South Africa Published in African Security Review Vol 13 No 2, 2004 General Amadou Toumani Toure remarked that: “Conflicts arise from human relations in two principal ways: first, individuals or groups of individuals have different values, needs and interests; and, second, most resources are not available in unlimited quantities and so access to them must be controlled and fought for. These two factors intrinsically cause conflicts.1” Through the years a wide range of causes of conflict in Africa has been identified, these include: Unequal access to and control of resources; State collapse or failure due to poor governance and a lack of the rule of law; Social and regional inequalities; Ethnicity; Food insecurity; Economic decline and shock which leads to unfulfilled expectations; Absence of an independent, well-informed civil society sector; and Misplaced humanitarian assistance.

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AT: Big Impacts
REACTIVE ADAPTATION PREVENTS ANY WARMING CATASTROPHES Mendelsohn 8 Robert, Professor of Forest Policy & Professor of Economics, Looking Beyond Kyoto, pg. 86

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***Negative Offense*** *Ice Age Turn
WE ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING AN ICE AGE – MEANS WE CONTOL UNIQUENESS, AND THEY CAN’T ACCESS ANY OF THEIR IMPACTS BECAUSE IT’S ONLY A QUESTION OF LIMITING COOLING, NOT ACTUALLY WARMING Kukla 7
George, PhD micropalentologist and Special Research Scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Forget Warming Beware the Next Ice Age, http://www.iceagenow.com/Beware_The_Next_Ice_Age.htm

In the 1970s, leading scientists claimed that the world was threatened by an era of global cooling. Based on what we've learned this decade, says George Kukla, those scientists - and he was among them -- had it right. The world is about to enter another Ice Age. Dr. Kukla, in 1972 a member of the
Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences and a pioneer in the field of astronomical forcing, became a central figure in convincing the United States government to take the dangers of climate change seriously. In January of that year, he and another geologist, Robert Matthews of Brown University, convened what would become a historic conference of top European and American investigators in Providence, R.I. The working conference's theme: "The Present Interglacial: How and When will it End?" Many today speak with derision of the 1970s global-cooling scare, seeing it as a cautionary false alarm. Others see it as an embarrassment -- Newsweek magazine, which published a 1975 article entitled "The Cooling World," even corrected the record with a 2006 follow-up to its 1975 article arguing that scientists now have it right. Dr. Kukla sees it -- and the 1975 Newsweek article --

Although the magazine article indicated that the cooling trend would be continuous, scientists knew otherwise. "None of us expected uninterrupted continuation of the trend," he states. Moreover, thanks to new evidence that Dr. Kukla only recently published, he now knows that global warming always precedes an ice age. That makes the current period of global warming a mere blip that constitutes additional indication of the ice age to come. To Dr. Kukla, the fundamental issue here could not be more clear. For millions of years, the geologic record shows, Earth has experienced an ongoing cycle of ice ages, each typically lasting about 100,000 years, and each punctuated by briefer, warmer periods called interglacials, such as the one we are now in. This ongoing cycle closely matches cyclic variations in Earth's orbit around the sun.
differently.

CONTINUED CO2 USE PREVENTS THE ONSET OF AN ICE AGE – HISTORICALLY TRUE Thompson 7 September, Citing a researcher @ University of Southampton, Global Warming May Cancel Next Ice Age, Online The effects of burning fossil fuels today will extend long beyond the next couple of hundred years, possibly delaying the onset of Earth's next ice age, more properly called a glacial period, says researcher Toby Tyrrell of the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom. For the past 3 million years, glacial
periods have advanced and retreated about every 100,000 years or so as the pattern of Earth's orbit changes with time — called a Milankovitch cycle — and alters the way the

When less solar energy hits a given area of the surface, temperatures become cooler. This is what causes the difference in temperatures between summer and winter. Long-term changes in Earth's orbit that cause less sunlight to hit
sun strikes the planet's surface. the surface can cool down summer temperatures so that less ice melts at the poles. If ice sheets and glaciers don't melt a bit in the summer, the ice accumulates and starts to

In the most recent glacial period, sheets of ice covered all of Canada and most of the northern United States, as well as all of Scandinavia and most of Britain and Russia. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may also be an important factor in triggering glacial periods. In the past, lower carbon dioxide levels, caused by natural processes, helped cool the Earth and again allowed ice to advance. Rising carbon dioxide levels, as is the case with global warming, can have the opposite effect.
advance.

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Ice Age Turn
THERE’S ONLY A RISK OF OUR OFFENSE – COOLING IS WORSE THAN HEATING Asher, 2/26
Michael, 2/26/8, http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

Cold is more damaging than heat. The mean temperature of the planet is about 54 degrees. Humans -- and most of the crops and animals we depend on -- prefer a temperature closer to 70. Historically, the warm periods such as the Medieval Climate Optimum were beneficial for civilization. Corresponding cooling events such as the Little Ice Age, though, were uniformly bad news.
Let's hope those factors stop fast.

THE IMPACT IS EXTINCTION Caruba 5 Alan, “An Icy End for Mankind?” http://www.sepp.org/Archive/NewSEPP/Ice%20AgeCaruba.htm
It is well known that, in the course of billions of years, the earth has gone through warming and cooling cycles. From 1850 to 1940, the Earth gained about one degree Fahrenheit

The Ice Shelf in Greenland and Antarctic is actually getting thicker. This is not something to be ignored because the earth has been in an interglacial period between ice ages that lasts about 11,000 years, and we are due another ice age any day now. Just as there is nothing mankind can do to prevent a bogus global warming, there is likely nothing we can do to avoid the very real prospect of the next ice age. When it comes, it will be extinction time for people, plants and animals in the far North. That's the way it was the last time.
in warmth. It has been warmer in the past -- such as during the millions of years that dinosaurs existed. The earth, however, is not showing signs of significant warming. Indeed, in the course of its five billion years, the earth has experienced such extinctions on a regular basis. While the environmentalists have flooded the classrooms and media of America with endless nonsense about global warming, the fact is that the schedules, i.e. the movement of the earth around the sun, galactic timetables, and ways in which the earth and our solar system function, are well known to scientists who study these things and, frankly, none if it bodes well for the human race and other critters. At least, that is the conclusion of Robert W. Felix, the author of "Not by Fire, But by Ice: The Next Ice Age Now" ($15.95, Sugarhouse Publishing, Bellevue, WA). Piling scientific fact upon fact, Felix

We're beginning to realize that earth is a violent and dangerous place to live. We're beginning to realize that mass extinctions have been the rule, rather than the exception for the 3.5 billion years that life has existed on earth."
notes that, "

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Ice Age MPX – Ag Collapse
ICE AGE LEADS TO AG COLLAPSE Chapman 8 Phil, geophysicist and astronautical engineer, Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh, http://www.sciencealert.com.au/opinions/20082105-17356.html It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850. There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it. Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases.

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Co2 Solves Ice Age
MASSIVE CO2 EMISSIONS KEY TO PREVENT COMING ICE AGE Walker 8 Bruce, Global Cooling is a Serious Problem, Senior Columnist, http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/2071 Scientist who study climate change have now come up with a new prognosis for the future of our planet: 2007 saw the greatest single drop in temperature in recorded history. The ice age which had been receding for the last few centuries seems to be returning. Global Cooling is a serious problem. The last time our planet suffered from global cooling, there was also a troubling increase in crop failures, disease and the decline of habitable areas (Greenland and Iceland, for example, had much more vegetation and warmth.) It is difficult to say if mankind can stop global cooling, but it is not difficult to say what the reaction of policymakers around the world should be to this newest and real natural threat. Governments should encourage the mining of coal, the drilling for oil, increasing industrial activity, more vehicles on the highways and the introduction of heatretaining chemical compounds in our atmosphere. ICE AGE IS COMPARATIVELY MORE LIKELY THAN WARMING Walker 8 Bruce, Global Cooling is a Serious Problem, Senior Columnist, http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/2071 Unlike the mythical global warming, mankind’s ingenuity has given him the tools to deal with global cooling – if we act in time. Invention has often been a human response to cold and its effects. Indeed, human progress has largely been a response to the challenges of nature in general. Often – the vast majority of the time – this has been futile. Mankind cannot stop volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis. But sometimes, if we are prescient like the Medieval Dutch, we can hold back the sea and win quiet victories against our enemy, nature.

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Co2 Solves Ice Age
CO2 SOLVES ICE AGE – THE IMPACT IS LARGER THAN WARMING Kelly 5 Derek, PhD, The Global Warming Scam, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/GB25Aa02.html Glaciation has prevailed for 90% of the last several million years. Extreme cold. Biting cold. Cold too intense for bikinis and swimming trunks. No matter what scary scenarios global-warming enthusiasts dream up, they pale in comparison with the conditions another ice age would deliver. Look to our past climate. Fifteen thousand years ago, an ice sheet a kilometer and a half thick covered all of North America north of a line stretching from somewhere around Seattle to Cleveland and New York City. Instead of reducing CO2, we should, perhaps, be increasing it. We should pay the smokestack industries hard dollars for every kilogram of soot they pump into the atmosphere. Instead of urging Chinese to stop using coal and turn instead to nuclear-generated electricity, we should beg them to continue using coal. Rather than bringing us to the edge of global-warming catastrophe, anthropogenic climate change may have spared us descent into what would be the most serious and far-reaching challenge facing humankind in the 21st century - dealing with a rapidly deteriorating climate that wants to plunge us into an ice age. Let's hope Antarctica and Greenland melt. Let's hope the sea levels rise. All life glorifies warmth. Only death prefers the icy fingers of endless winter.

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Ice Age – AT: Link Turn
WARMING WON’T LEAD TO AN ICE AGE – SALINITY MODELS Weaver and Marcel 4 A. J. Weaver is at the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 3P6, Canada, C. Hillaire-Marcel is at GEOTOP, Global Warming and the Next Ice Age, Science Magazine Even the recent observations of freshening in the North Atlantic (15) (a reduction of salinity due to the addition of freshwater) appear to be consistent with the projections of perhaps the most sophisticated non-flux-adjusted model (11). Ironically, this model suggests that such freshening is associated with an increased AMO (16). This same model proposes that it is only Labrador Sea Water formation that is susceptible to collapse in response to global warming. In light of the paleoclimate record and our understanding of the contemporary climate system, it is safe to say that global warming will not lead to the onset of a new ice age. These same records suggest that it is highly unlikely that global warming will lead to a widespread collapse of the AMO--despite the appealing possibility raised in two recent studies (18, 19)--although it is possible that deep convection in the Labrador Sea will cease. Such an event would have much more minor consequences on the climate downstream over Europe. WARMING WON’T COLLAPSE THE NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT – EVEN IF IT DOES, WARMING WILL OUTWEIGH O’Hare, Johnson, and Pope 5 O'Hare, Greg, Andy Johnson, and Richard Pope. "Current shifts in abrupt climate change: the stability of the North Atlantic conveyor and its influence on future climate." Geography 90.3 (Autumn 2005): 250(17). Expanded Academic ASAP. Gale. University of Kansas Libraries. 14 Mar. 2008 <http://find.galegroup.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/itx/start.do?prodId=EAIM>
By currently releasing massive quantities of fresh water into the North Atlantic through ice melt, global warming today is seen as a powerful mechanism able to switch the present 'on' state of the Northern Conveyor to the 'half-on' and even the 'off' mode condition. Global warming paradoxically has the potential to plunge the northern Atlantic region into

Using modern high quality palaeoclimatic data (ice cores and deep sea sediments) a comparison of the last four interglacials, including MIS 11 (430,000 years ago), shows us that natural factors alone are unlikely to cause a quick return to ice age conditions. In addition, theoretical and empirical findings together with modelling studies of the Northern Conveyor reveal that although there is likely to be a significant weakening in the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift by the end of the present century, a total collapse of the system is not expected. In terms of our future climate, therefore, we should expect continued warming as a result of anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases rather than cooling over the next 50-80 years. One favourite climate scenario suggests that cooling by a shut-down of the Gulf Stream at the end of the present century is more than likely to be balanced by global warming. In the final analysis, however, there are too many uncertainties in the science of climate change for us to be
new glacial conditions. Because some scientists and others in the media believe in the return or near return of an ice age, this possibility is addressed in our article. confident of what the climate will be like in the future. What we do know with a better level of authority is that abrupt climate change was a feature of the past, and it could well be one of the future.

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Ice Age Coming
LANDSCHEIDT, A QUALIFIED EXPERT CONCURS - ICE AGE COMING IN 20 YEARS Landscheidt 3 PhD, Founder of the Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, New Little Ice Age by 2030!, Online we could be headed into a Maunder minimum type of climate (a Little Ice Age). The probability is high that the minima around 2030 and 2201 will go along with periods of cold climate comparable to the nadir of the Little Ice Age, and La Niñas will be more frequent and stronger than El Niños through 2018 (Landscheidt, 2000). We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast is correct, however. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before then. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago.
Analysis of the sun's activity in the last two millennia indicates that, contrary to the IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming, that As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong. The total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 2.3 since 1901 while global temperature on earth increased by about 0.6°C. Energetic flares increased the Sun's ultraviolet radiation by at least 16

There is “a clear connection between solar eruptions and a strong rise in temperature.” Lake bottom cores from the Yukatan Peninsula covering more than 2,000 years show a similar correlation between recurrent droughts and the Sun's
percent. eruptional activity. These results and many earlier ones (Landscheidt, 1981-2001) document the importance of the Sun's eruptional activity on climate. Energetic solar eruptions do not accumulate around the sunspot maximum. In most cycles they shun the maximum phase and can even occur close to a sunspot minimum. I (Landscheidt) have shown for

the sun's varying activity is linked to cycles in its irregular oscillation about the centre of mass of the solar system (the solar retrograde cycle). As these cycles are connected with climate phenomena and can be computed for centuries, they offer a means to forecast phases of cool and warm climate. Researchers need to take the sun seriously as a factor in climate change, including warming, droughts, and cold snaps.
decades that

HIS PREDICTIONS HAVE EMPIRICALLY BEEN CORRECT Felix 7 Robert, Here's what I published in 2003, http://www.iceagenow.com/New%20Little%20Ice%20Age.htm Landscheidt's forecasts include the end of the great Sahelian drought; the last five extremes in global temperature anomalies; the last three El Niños; and the course of the last La Niña. He predicted extreme River Po discharges beginning in October 2000, some seven months before they began. This forecast skill, says Landscheidt, solely based on solar cycles, is irreconcilable with the IPCC's allegation that it is unlikely that natural forcing can explain the warming in the latter half of the 20th century.

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*Adaptation DA – Link
FOCUS ON LARGE-SCALE IMPACT PREVENTS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 123-124

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Adaptation DA – Link
THE AFFIRMATIVE IS THE “P/C” COP-OUT – FOCUS ON CO2 HAS A DIRECT TRADEOFF AND DIVERTS ATTENTION FROM BETTER ADAPTATION SOLUTIONS Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 145

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Adaptation DA
FOCUS ON NEGATIVE IMPACT PREVENTS FOCUS ON ADAPTATION Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 128

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Adaptation DA
ENVIRONMENTAL DOOMSAYING DENIES PROGRESSSIVE SOLUTIONS Lomborg 7 Bjorn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, Cool It, pg. 148

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Adaptation Solves

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Adaptation Solves
WARMING WILL BE SLOW – ADAPTATION SOLVES

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*Co2 Ag DA
FOOD PRICES ARE RISING – THE ONLY SOLUTION IS INCREASED PRODUCTION THE PRESS ASSOCIATION, 6/25 UN warns of rising food prices, 6/25/08, http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gw3QAJkWm_FVBknySwRjlxsD_Z4g The head of the UN's food agency has warned that food prices will remain high and called for a boost in production. Food and Agriculture Organisation director general Jacques Diouf said prices are expected to remain high due to climate change, continued demand for bioenergy, low food stocks and greater demand in emerging countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Brazil. Mr Diouf said the problem will not be solved without increasing food production, and he called on world leaders meeting in Japan next month to address this issue. INCREASED CO2 WILL BOOST AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT BY 33 PERCENT – HUNDRED OF STUDIES PROVE IDSO, 84 Sherwood B., prof at Arizona State, “CO2, Climate and Consensus Science,” Nov 1984 But is the situation really that bad? Decidedly not, if one can believe the results of literally hundreds of sound agronomic experiments which have established beyond all doubt that atmospheric CO2 enrichment acts as a stimulus to plant growth and development. Indeed, in a recent review of the plant science literature relative to this subject (Agron. J., 75: 779), B. A. Kimball concludes that crop yields the world over 'probably will increase by 33 per cent with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration'. What is more, atmospheric CO2 enrichment also induces partial stomatal closure, so that plants lose less water by transpiration; and in a recent review of this effect (Agric. Water Management, 7: 55) it is concluded that 'a doubling of CO2 concentration could reduce transpiration by 34 per cent.' Thus, it can be readily appreciated that plant water use efficiency, or the yield produced per unit of water used, will actually double with a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 content.

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Co2 Ag DA
HIGH FOOD PRICES THREATEN GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE FACKLER, 6/15 MARTIN FACKLER June 15, 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/15/business/worldbusiness/15ministers.html “Surging Oil and Food Prices Threaten the World Economy, Finance Ministers Warn” The global economy faces a one-two punch from slowing growth and soaring fuel and food prices, finance ministers from the world’s richest nations warned Saturday, though they stopped short of offering concrete solutions. Finance ministers from the Group of 8 industrialized nations wrapped up a two-day meeting in Japan that was dominated by talk of rising petroleum prices, which have set off street protests across the world. In a statement, the ministers said higher prices of oil and other commodities threatened the world economy at a time when it was still reeling from the collapse of the housing market in the United States. ECONOMIC DECLINE RISKS NUCLEAR WAR MEAD, 92 [Walter Russel Mead, Senior Fellow in American FoPo @ the Council on Foreign Relations, World Policy Institute, 1992]
Hundreds of millions, billions, of people have pinned their hopes on the international market . They and their leaders have embraced market principles and drawn closer to the west because they believe the system can work for them? But what if it can’t?

What if the global economy stagnates or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period of international conflict: North against South, rich against poor. Russia, China India, these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to the world than Germany and Japan did in the 30s.

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Co2 Ag – Link
GLOBAL WARMING ALLOWS FOR MORE FERTILE AND NUTRIENT-RICH SOIL ROSENZWEIG AND HILLEL, 95 Cynthia, Research Agronomist at NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, and Dr. Daniel, Professor Emeritus of Plant and Soil Sciences at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, “Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Supply” Consequences Vol. 1, No. 2, Summer 1995 http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/summer95/agriculture.html Higher air temperatures will also be felt in the soil, where warmer conditions are likely to speed the natural decomposition of organic matter and to increase the rates of other soil processes that affect fertility. Additional application of fertilizer may be needed to counteract these processes and to
take advantage of the potential for enhanced crop growth that can result from increased atmospheric CO2. This can come at the cost of environmental risk, for additional use of

. The continual cycling of plant nutrients--carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and sulfur--in the soil-plant-atmosphere system is also likely to accelerate in warmer conditions, enhancing CO2 and N2O greenhouse gas emissions. Nitrogen is made available to plants in a biologically usable form through the action of bacteria in the soil. This process of nitrogen fixation, associated with greater root development, is also predicted to increase in warmer conditions and with higher CO2, if soil moisture is not limiting. Where they occur, drier soil conditions will suppress both root growth and decomposition of organic matter, and will increase vulnerability to wind
chemicals may impact water and air quality erosion, especially if winds intensify. An expected increase in convective rainfall--caused by stronger gradients of temperature and pressure and more atmospheric moisture--may result in heavier rainfall when and where it does occur. Such "extreme precipitation events" can cause increased soil erosion.

INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CO2 BENEFIT AGRICULTURE AND IMPROVES PLANT EFFICIENCY TO CONSUME WATER Wang 05 (Xiaodu Wang has a Bachelor Of Science with majors in Electrical Engineering, Economics and Computer Engineering at the Johns Hopkins university and is a Master Of Science In Civil And Environmental Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The economic impact of global climate and tropospheric oxone on world agricultural production. 1 June 2005. <http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/35755>). In general, higher concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide due to increased use of fossil fuels, deforestation, and biomass burning may have a positive influence on the photosynthesis process of crops, strengthening the fertilization effect. Wolf and Erickson conclude that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration also improves the efficiency in plants to consume water because of reduced transpiration (1993). This is induced by a contraction of plant stomata with the overabundance of carbon dioxide. The number of stomata per unit leaf area could also decrease, which is combined to restrict the escape of water vapor.

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Co2 Key to Ag – A2: Pests
CO2 BOOSTS PLANT GROWTH AND RESISTANCE TO PESTS BALGORD, 1 William D., Global warming not necessarily fault of humans, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, August 11, 2001 Kyoto proponents seldom mention the obvious: CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere can provide enormous benefits to agriculture and forestry. Controlled tests show doubling CO2 stimulates faster growth and hardiness in most plants, provides resistance to drought, pollutants and pests, and enhances the ability of plants to withstand temperature extremes. Higher field crop and forest yields would ultimately benefit a growing world population. GLOBAL WARMING CONDITIONS WITH ENHANCED CO2 LEVELS WILL STIMULATE PLANT GROWTH AND TRANSMUTE PLANTS TO RETAIN MORE WATER

Morgan Et Al. 04 (A. Morgan, D. E. Pataki2, C. Körner3, H. Clark4, S. J. Del Grosso5, J. M. Grünzweig6, A.
K. Knapp7, A. R. Mosier8, P. C. D. Newton4, P. A. Niklaus3, J. B. Nippert9, R. S. Nowak10, W. J. Parton5, H. W. Polley11 and M. R. Shaw, “Water relations in grassland and desert ecosystems exposed to elevated atmospheric CO 2” Oecologia. 20 May 2004. <http://www.springerlink.com/content/8rxdbldean0qn2ae/>).

Atmospheric CO2 enrichment may stimulate plant growth directly through (1) enhanced photosynthesis or indirectly, through (2) reduced plant water consumption and hence slower soil moisture depletion, or the combination of both. Herein we describe gas exchange,
plant biomass and species responses of five native or semi-native temperate and Mediterranean grasslands and three semi-arid systems to CO2 enrichment, with an emphasis on water relations.

Increasing CO2 led to decreased leaf conductance for water vapor, improved plant water status, altered seasonal evapotranspiration dynamics, and in most cases, periodic increases in soil water content. The extent, timing and duration of these responses varied among
ecosystems, species and years. Across the grasslands of the Kansas tallgrass prairie, Colorado shortgrass steppe and Swiss calcareous grassland, increases in aboveground biomass from CO2 enrichment were relatively greater in dry years. In contrast, CO2-induced aboveground biomass increases in the Texas C3/C4 grassland and the New Zealand pasture seemed little or only marginally influenced by yearly variation in soil water, while plant growth in the Mojave Desert was stimulated by CO2 in a relatively wet year. Mediterranean grasslands sometimes failed to respond to CO2-related increased late-season water, whereas semiarid Negev grassland assemblages profited. Vegetative and reproductive responses to CO2 were highly varied among species and ecosystems, and did not generally follow any predictable pattern in regard to functional groups. Results suggest that the indirect effects of CO2 on plant and soil

water relations may contribute substantially to experimentally induced CO2-effects, and also reflect local humidity conditions.

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Co2 Key To Bio-D

CO2 IS KEY TO GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY AND IS THE ONLY WAY TO COUNTER THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING IDSO, 3
Sherwood (President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and former professor at Arizona State University), Craig, and Keith Idso, The Specter of Species Extinction, http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/150.pdf

in a world of both rising air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration? We could expect that earth’s plants would extend the current cold-limited boundaries of their ranges both poleward in latitude and upward in elevation, but that the heat-limited boundaries of the vast majority of them would remain pretty much as they are now, i.e., unchanged. Hence, the sizes of the ranges occupied by most of earth’s plants would increase. We additionally hypothesize that many of the animals that depend upon those plants for food and shelter would exhibit analogous behavior. Hence, with respect to both plants and animals, we would anticipate that nearly everywhere on earth, local biodiversity or species richness would increase in a world of rising air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, as the expanding ranges of the planet’s plants and animals overlapped those of their neighbors to an everincreasing degree. The implications of these observations are clear: if the planet continues to warm, even at what climate alarmists call “unprecedented rates,” we need not worry about earth’s plants and animals being unable to migrate to cooler regions of the globe fast enough to avoid extinction, as long as the air’s CO2 content continues to rise at its current rate. So obvious is this conclusion, in fact, that Cowling (1999) has bluntly stated that “maybe we should be less concerned about rising CO2 and rising temperatures and
So what could we logically expect to happen to the biosphere more worried about the possibility that future atmospheric CO2 will suddenly stop increasing, while global temperatures continue rising.”

BIODIVERSITY LOSS RISKS EXTINCTION DINER, GENDER PARAPHRASED, 94
Military Law Review Winter 1994 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161 LENGTH: 30655 words ARTICLE: THE ARMY AND THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT: WHO'S ENDANGERING WHOM? NAME: MAJOR DAVID N. DINER BIO: Judge Advocate General's Corps, United States Army.

Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems inherently are more stable than less diverse systems . "The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist a
[*173] stress. . . . [l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole."

n79 By causing widespread extinctions, humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems . As biologic simplicity increases,
so does the risk of ecosystem failure. The spreading Sahara Desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are relatively mild examples of what might be expected if this trend continues. Theoretically,

each new animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total ecosystem collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a mechanic removing , one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings , n80 [hu]mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.

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Co2 Key To Bio-D

LOWERING CO2 JACKS THE BIOSPHERE’S ABILITY TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS – THIS TURNS ALL YOUR BIOSPHERE IMPACTS IDSO, 3
Sherwood (President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and former professor at Arizona State University), Craig, and Keith Idso, The Specter of Species Extinction, http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/150.pdf

Cowling is right on target with her assessment of the issue. Measures designed to slow the rate of rise of the air’s CO2 content would actually be counterproductive and detrimental to the biosphere, in that they would deprive earth’s vegetation (and its associated animal life) of much of its capacity to adequately acclimate to rising temperatures forced by phenomena unrelated to the air’s CO2 content, such as variations in solar activity. However, the political pressure to respond to the counterfeit ethics of the CO2 -induced global warming extinction
hypothesis is so great that both logic and facts count for little in the debate over what to do — or not do! – about the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. Thus, the media onslaught continues, with each new scientific study that can possibly be construed to support a doom-and-gloom scenario being heralded as another important piece of evidence for the validity of the contention that earth’s biosphere is already in process of being decimated by global warming.

Increased CO2 emissions only help to boost the health and productivity of vegetation Taylor, 2007 (James; “Study: 'Global Warming' Making Northern Hemisphere Greener”; managing editor
of Environment & Climate News; June 1)

Rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, together with moderately warming temperatures, have caused a substantial greening of the Northern Hemisphere. That's according to Craig Idso, founder and former president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, reporting in the March 14 issue of CO2 Science. CO2, Climate Dominant Factors: Idso's article summarizes research first reported in the December 2006 Geophysical Research Letters. In that study, five scientists at universities in France and the United States studied the spatial patterns of vegetation growth north of 25 degrees latitude (a line running east-west just south of the Florida Keys) between 1980 and 2000. The five scientists reported, "The results indicate that changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 likely function as dominant controllers for the greening trend during the study period." Prior studies on variations in northern hemisphere vegetation taken from satellite data from 1981 to 1999 had shown vegetation had increased by 8 to 12 percent across North America and Eurasia during the time period. "At the continental scale, atmospheric CO2, temperature, and precipitation account for 49%, 31%, and 13% of the increase in growing season LAI [Leaf Area Index], respectively," the five scientists found. Carbon Dioxide Benefits: Looking more deeply into the study, Idso reported, "In response to what climate alarmists describe as unprecedented increases in the air's CO2 content and temperature, which they characterize as phenomena worse than nuclear warfare and global terrorism, the bulk of the terrestrial vegetation of the Northern Hemisphere north of 25ºN has not only not suffered because of them, it has actually grown more robust." There are "a number of biological consequences of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations," Idso wrote. "The best known of these important impacts is probably CO2's aerial fertilization effect, which works its wonders on plants that utilize all three of the major biochemical pathways of photosynthesis (C3 [typical photosynthesis], C4 and CAM [C4 and CAM are photosynthesis adopted to arid conditions])," Idso continued. "In the case of herbaceous plants," Idso noted, "this phenomenon typically boosts their productivities by about a third in response to a 300 ppm increase in the air's CO2 90

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content, while it enhances the growth of woody plants by 50% or more."

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Food Prices MPX – Hunger

HIGHER FOOD PRICES KILL BILLIONS TAMPA TRIBUNE 96
(January 20, LN) "Even

if they are merely blips, higher international prices can hurt poor countries that import a significant portion of their food," he said. "Rising prices can also quickly put food out of reach of the 1.1 billion people in the developing world who live on a dollar a day or less ." He also said many people in low-income countries already spend more than half of their income on food. THIS OUTWEIGHS ALL – WE MUST STOP HUNGER, EVEN IF IT LEADS TO EXTINCTION LAFOLLETTE 2K3 (Hugh, http://www.stpt.usf.edu/hhl/papers/World.Hunger.htm)
Those who claim the relatively affluent have this strong obligation must, among other things, show why Hardin's projections are either morally irrelevant or mistaken. A hearty few take the former tack: they claim

we have a strong obligation to aid the starving even if we would eventually become malnourished. On this view, to survive on lifeboat earth, knowing that others were tossed overboard into the sea of starvation, would signify an indignity and callousness worse than extinction (Watson 1977). It would be morally preferable to die struggling to create a decent life for all than to continue to live at the expense of the starving.

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Food Prices Good – Dev Nations
HIGH FOOD PRICES SPUR PRODUCTION FROM DEVELOPING NATIONS – THIS IS KEY TO GROWING ECONOMIES AND SOLVES YOUR HUNGER IMPACTS WAFULA, 6/24 Walter, Writer for The Monitor (Kampala), High Food Prices an Opening for Developing Countries http://allafrica.com/stories/200806240205.html Rather than worry about the rising global food prices, developing nations like Uganda should exploit this opportunity to earn millions of dollars from food importing nations. Dr Jurgen Zattler, the Deputy Director General Multilateral and European Development Policy, trade, at the Ministry for Economic Cooperation in Germany, advised developing countries to step up their agricultural out put to take advantage of foreign markets where food prices have soared as a result of food shortages. He underlined that the swelling prices are not only negative but also positive because they are also stimulating production especially in developing countries. "The high prices are a big chance for developing countries to increase their productivity in the agriculture sector," Dr Zattler told Daily Monitor in an interview, on June 13. At the moment, he said, there are no export subsidies in Europe because food prices like elsewhere, are high. He said this was a result of rising energy prices as a result of increased demand for oil and food stuff like beef, rice and wheat by China and India with ballooning growth rates. Subsidies for local farmers in European countries have for long been a major impediment in trade between them, the United States of America and developing countries. If counties like Uganda increase their food production, and exported to these markets, this would translate into higher incomes for the local farmers and increased revenue for government.

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CO2 Solves Hunger
CO2 IS KEY TO FOOD PRODUCTION IN THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES

idso, 84
Sherwood B., prof at Arizona State, “CO2, Climate and Consensus Science,” Nov 1984 Rainfed agriculture will thus be able to expand into areas where it is currently impractical; and this will be of great significance for Third World countries, where many people eke out a meagre living on lands barely able to sustain a crop. Natural vegetation will also respond better, as grasslands begin to invade deserts and create new ranges for animal production. More water will also be available for irrigation and industrial uses, as the antitranspirant effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment acts to conserve soil moisture. Indeed, in stark contrast to the 40 to 75 per cent reductions in streamflow predicted by the NRC report-which failed to consider the effect of CO2 on plant stomatal conductance-A. R. Aston of Australia has recently demonstrated (J. Hydrol., 67: 273) that 'we can expect streamflow to increase from 40 to 90 per cent as a consequence of doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration'.

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A2: Idso Indicts
PREFER OUR EVIDENCE – YOUR AUTHORS IGNORE THE POSITIVE EFFECTS OF CO2 IDSO, 3 Sherwood (President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and former professor at Arizona State University), Craig, and Keith Idso, The Specter of Species Extinction, http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/150.pdf Proponents of what we shall call the CO2-induced global warming extinction hypothesis seem to be totally unaware of the fact that atmospheric CO2 enrichment tends to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures on earth’s vegetation. They appear not to know that more CO2 in the air enables plants to grow better at nearly all temperatures, but especially at higher temperatures. They feign ignorance of the knowledge (or truly do not know) that elevated CO2 boosts the optimum temperature at which plants grow best, and that it raises the upper-limiting temperature above which they experience death, making them much more resistant to heat stress. YOUR AUTHORS ARE CORRUPTED BY MONEY HOSKINS, 7 John, How Much Hot Air is Due to Global Warming?, Indoor and Built Environment No. 16
A big problem, then, for all of us but is it true? Even a superficial reading of the literature shows there is much confusion. Firstly, how do you measure global temperature? Not easy, and even harder if you want historical measurements. Historically you need proxies, such as tree growth rings and the like, in recent decades you actually make measurements. One person’s measurements it turns out are not accepted by another’s. There are those who would say there are few or no changes to global temperature. The official temperature records of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, say that for the years 1998–2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a slight, though not statistically significant, decrease). A rather short period admittedly but many of the arguments about global warming are based on short periods. The world has been warming since 1850, it warmed more between the two World Wars; 1940 was reportedly warmer than any warm year in more recent times. If we accept unreservedly the IPCC’s findings then all this seems silly. If we believe that global temperature still goes up and down with time as it has done forever then it does not seem silly. Overall, it seems most likely that global mean temperature has increased in recent decades. Whether any consequent ‘greenhouse effect’ has occurred is a matter still for debate. If it has whether the effect was good or bad is a matter for even more intense debate. Whether it will get worse is a subject which has people at each other’s throats. There are somelike Professor Sherwood Idso from Arizona State University, who says: ‘‘[W]arming has been shown to positively impact human health, while atmospheric CO2 enrichment has been shown to enhance the healthpromoting properties of the food we eat, as well as stimulate the production of more of it. . . . [W]e have nothing to fear from increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and global warming’’ [1]. This brings me back to carbon dioxide which the IPCC says is the engine that is driving the global warming. Now, carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. Not a very powerful one and not by any means the major one, which is water vapour. We cannot do anything about water but maybe we can

enormous sums of money have been made available to study, solve or ameliorate the problem. Zbigniew Jaworowski, a climate scientist and carbon dioxide denier, wrote recently [2]: During the past six years, the President of the U nited S tates devoted nearly $29 billion to climate research, leading the world with its unparalleled financial commitment (The White House 2007 [3]). This was about $5 billion per year, more than twice the amount spent on the Apollo Program ($2.3 billion per year), which in 1969 put man on the Moon. A side-effect of this situation , and of politicizing the climate issue, was described by meteorologist Piers Corbyn in the Weather Action Bulletin, December 2000: ‘‘The problem we are faced with is that the meteorological establishment and the global warming lobby research bodies which receive large funding are now apparently so corrupted by the largesse they receive that the scientists in them have sold their integrity.’’
about carbon dioxide – and so, with that idea firmly entrenched, a global warming industry was born. Money just poured in,

Money on this scale is, of course not spread evenly. It is handed out very selectively. Now is a good time to make windmills, but not, it seems, nuclear power stations. The considerable involvement of governments and politicians and agendas which do not seem an all out struggle to address the problem have led those such as Patrick J. Michaels, who is a Research Professor of Environmental Sciences

a coalition of interests has promoted the greenhouse theory; scientists have needed funds, the media a story, and governments a worthy cause’’.
at the University of Virginia to say [4]: ‘‘It may not quite add up to a conspiracy, but certainly

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A2: Loladze
LOLADZE IS WRONG – HIGH CO2 LEVELS ALLOW FOR PLANTS TO USE NITROGEN EFFICIENTLY IDSO, 2 Sherwood (President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and former professor at Arizona State University), Craig, and Keith Idso, “Has the Historical Rise in the Air's CO2 Content Negatively Impacted Human Health?” Volume 5, Number 44: 30 October 2002 Loladze's thesis is based on the assumption that certain essential micronutrients should be present in plants at concentrations that are greater than, or at least equal to, their current concentrations. By this thinking, any concentration reductions from those of the present are deemed to be bad. This premise, however, is far too simplistic; for it is not the amount of those elements, but how they are used, that defines their utility or value to the plant and/or human body. A case in point from the plant world is the commonly - but not universally - observed decrease in foliage nitrogen concentration that occurs in vegetation growing in air enriched with CO2. Originally thought to be a negative response, this acclimation phenomenon has gradually come to be realized to be a positive reaction to atmospheric CO2 enrichment. Not requiring as much nitrogen to maintain their photosynthetic machinery in top working condition when growing in air enriched with CO2, plants need not acquire as much nitrogen as they do in CO2-deficient air (such as that of the present) and, therefore, they need not expend the extra energy required to do so, growing bigger and better all the while. And that is why it is openly acknowledged that atmospheric CO2 enrichment greatly enhances plant nitrogen use efficiency.

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AT: Warming Collapses Ag
LOWER TEMPERATURES CRUSH AGRICULTURE – HISTORY PROVES Dunn 7 J.R., “Resisting Global Warming Panic,” 1/31/2k7, American Thinker, http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/01/resisting_global_warming_panic.html The climate closed down. Rains ruined crops and washed away entire seacoast towns. Far to the north, the great colonies of Iceland and Greenland faltered and began to fade away. Famine returned to Europe, and with it the plague, in one of the greatest mass deaths ever witnessed by humanity. The bright centuries were replaced by the dance of death and a dank and morbid religiosity. The
focus of culture shifted to the warm Mediterranean. It remained cold, within certain broad limits, for six hundred years. The chill only lifted in the 1850s, when our current warming actually began.

We look back to a world that was a far more pleasant place at the turn of the last millennium, with a milder climate, plentiful food, a healthy populace. A picture, needless to say, at some
variance with the Greens' prediction of coming universal disaster. It also undermines one of one of the basic environmentalist tenets - that nature is in delicate balance that can

The LCO suggests that a warmer world may well be more desirable than the one we have now. To go a step further, my research implied that the planet is in fact meant to be somewhat warmer than it is today, that the life-forms we see around us are in fact adapted to a warmer climate. The earth is, after all, stuck within a
destroyed by a hard look from any given capitalist, and that any such change leads inevitably to catastrophe. three-million-year glacial epoch whose origin and cause remain a mystery. (We're now in a brief "interglacial" - a warming period! - that began only 12,000 years ago and could end tomorrow.)

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AT: Warming Collapses Ag
WARMING NET BETTER FOR AG

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*So2 Screw DA
SO2 DECREASES WARMING Walker and King 8 Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, Sir David, Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and a senior scientific adviser to UBS, The Hot Topic, pg. 26

REMOVAL OF SO2 EXACERBATES WARMING

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So2 Screw – Link

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So2 Screw – Link

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