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A New Approach to Determine Base,
and Peak-Demand in an Power System
A. Salimi-beni Iran Grid Management Company-IGMC Beni(tavanir.org.ir
D. Farrokhzad Iran Grid Management Company-IGMC
M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad Department of Electrical Engineering Sharif University of Technology firstname.lastname@example.org
S. J. Alemohammad Khozestan Electric Power Regional Company
Accurate load forecasting is an important issue as it ensures the availability of supply and also provides a mean to avoid over or under utilization of generation, transmission and distribution facilities. Electricity demand fluctuates throughout every 24-hour period as well as through the week, and also seasonally. It also varies from place to place and from country to country depending on the mix of demand, the climate, and other factors. A typical load curve of a power electricity system through one period of time is normally divided into three parts as base, intermediate and peak-load. Figure 1 shows these three main parts. The shape of such a curve will vary markedly according to the kind of demand. While having accurate information for the three parts of a load curve is very important, it is not an easy task to calculate the base, intermediate and peak-load of a particular system. Determination of these three main parts of system demand is one of the major issues in power system planning. Because of the large fluctuations in demand over the course of the day, it is normal to have several types of power stations broadly categorized as base-load, intermediate-load and peak load stations. The base load stations  are usually steam- driven and run more or less continuously at near rated power output. Coal and nuclear power are the main energy sources used. Intermediate-load and peak-load stations must be capable of being brought on line and shut down quickly once or twice daily. A variety of techniques are used for intermediate and peak-load generation including gas turbines, gas-and oil-fired steam boilers and hydro-electric generation. Peak-load equipment tends to be characterized by low capital cost, and relatively high fuel cost is not a great problem.
Abstract--Electricity demand varies from place to place and from country to country depending on the mix of demand, the climate, and other factors. A typical load curve of a power electricity system through one period of time is normally divided into three parts as base, intermediate and peak-load. While having accurate information for the three parts of a load curve is very important, it is not an easy task to calculate the base, intermediate and peak-load of a particular system. This paper presents a new statistical approach to calculate the three main parts of a system load demand; base, intermediate and peak-load using a cluster analysis which is one of the statistical methods to in data categorizing. The main advantage of the proposed technique is that it can be applied to situations in which LDC or system load factor varies. The applicability of the proposed technique is illustrated by determining the base, intermediate and peak-load for different seasons of Iran power network. Index Terms--Base load, cluster analysis, Intermediate load, Load Division Curve(LDC), Peak load.
society because of its pattern of social and working habits has come to expect the supply to be continuously available on demand. This can only be achieved by focusing on all aspects of an electric power system from the generating units through the transmission system down to the customer at the end of the distribution system. At the same time, electric power utilities are required to operate their systems more efficiently and economically and therefore the planning process is becoming a critical factor in determining the performance and design of power systems. One of the main issues in this regard is to acknowledge that reliable forecasting of the expected growth in electric energy demand is the fundamental determinant of the necessity for system development and/or reinforcement.
T HE importance of electricity in our economy and in all aspects of our lives is constantly growing. Modem
LDC Iran Network 2001
d (P, Q) = (x1 - Y1)2 + (x2 - Y2 )2 +
+ (x_ )2 y_
Peak load Intermediate load
Y ) (1) The statistical distance between the same two observations can be expressed in the form of:
d(X,Y) = (-
5761 7201 8641
4321 Time for 2001
Ordinarily, A = S 1 where S contains the sample variances and co-variances. Another distance measure is the Minkowski metric:
Fig 1. Iran load duration
(P, Q) =
The base load demand  for reliable, continuous supply of large amounts of electricity is the key factor in any system. The main investment of any electric utility is to meet that kind of demand. As well as daily and weekly variations in demand there are gradual changes occurring in the pattern of electricity demand from year to year. In most literature, attempt has not been devoted to develop a technique to
calculate base, intermediate and peak-load.  
For m=1, d(X,Y) measures the " city-block" distance between two points in p dimensions. For m=2, d(X,Y) becomes the Euclidean distance. In general, varying m changes the weight is given to the larger and smaller differences. The construction of distances and similarities has been described. It is always possible to construct similarities from distances. For example, we might set
This paper presents a new statistical approach to calculate the three main parts of a system load demand; base, intermediate and peak-load. This technique is based on a cluster analysis which is one of the statistical methods in data categorizing. The main advantage of the proposed technique is that it can be applied to situations in which LDC or system load factor varies. The applicability of the proposed technique is illustrated by determining base, intermediate and peak-load for different seasons of Iran power network.
is the similarity between items i and k
Where 0 < Sik
and di. is the corresponding distance. The less subjective schemes for creating clusters will be discussed in more detail. In general, there are two main approaches for clustering and they are :
A. Cluster analysis
1. Hierarchical cluster methods 2. Nonhierarchical cluster methods The second approach is used in this paper. Nonhierarchical clustering techniques are designed to group items into a collection of k clusters, rather than variables. The number of clusters, k, may either be specified in advance or determined as part of the clustering procedure. Because a matrix of distances (similarities) does not have to be determined and the basic data do not have to be stored during the computer run, nonhierarchical methods can be applied to much larger data sets than hierarchical techniques. One of the more popular nonhierarchical procedures known as the kmeans is investigated in the following subsection.
C. K-means method:
Grouping or clustering is distinct from the classification methods. Classification pertains to a known number of groups, and the operational objective is to assign new observations to one of these groups. Cluster analysis is concerned with forming groups of similar objects based on several measurement of different kinds made on the objects. The key idea is to identify classifications of the objects that would be useful for the aims of the analysis. This idea has been applied in various areas. Before implementing any technique for clustering, it is required to define a measure for distances between utilities so that similar utilities are a short distance apart and dissimilar. Ones are far from each other, a popular distance measure based on variables that take on values is to standardize the values by dividing by the standard deviation (sometimes other measures such as range are used) and then to compute the distance between objects using the Euclidean metric method.
B. Similarity measure
The straight-line distance between two arbitrary points P and Q with coordinates P = (XI x2 ... , ) and (YI,Y2. ,)
This algorithm  assigns each item to the cluster having the nearest centroid (mean). In its simplest version, the process is composed of these three steps:
Partition the items in to k initial cluster. Proceed through the list of items, assigning an item to the cluster whose centroid (mean) is nearest. (Distance is usually computed using Euclidean distance with either standardized or unstandardized observations) recalculate the centriod for the cluster receiving the new item and for the cluster losing the item.
Repeat step 2 until no more reassignments take place. Rather than starting with a partition of all items into k preliminary groups in step 1. We could specify k initial centroids (seed points) and then proceed to step 2. The final assignment of items to clusters will be, to some extent, dependent upon the initial partition or the initial selection of seed points. Experience shows that most major changes in assignment occur with the first reallocation step.
APPLICATION Using the approach described in the previous sections, the three main parts of the system load demand, base load, intermediate load and peak load, are calculated using an statistical software SPSS. Hourly peak loads of Iran network as well as Khozestan region are used for the study results presented in this paper.
A. Calculating base, intermediate and peak load of Iran network
Fig. 2. Hourly peak load of Iran in year 2001.
Using the nonhierarchical cluster algorithm and K-Means technique presented in the previous section, the intervals associated with the base and peak load of Iran network are calculated. The hourly peak load of Iran network for the year 2001 are used for the analysis presented in this section. In the first step, the number of cluster is assumed to be 2 and based on the first step of the proposed algorithm initial cluster centers are determined. These values are shown in Table I.
Initial Cluster Centers Cluster
nuclear units are appropriate for the base load. 54.111% of the time period, this system requires generating units appropriate for the intermediate load. Combined cycle units are considered to be appropriate for the intermediate load. Finally the system should have sufficient peak load stations for 18.44% of the year. Hydro and gas turbine units are in the peak load station categories.
As noted earlier, having accurate information on the base, intermediate and peak load is an important issue as it ensures the availability of supply and also provides a mean to avoid over or under utilization of generation, transmission and distribution facilities. Figure 3 shows that the system requires base load stations for 27.45% of the time during a year. Thermal and
In the second step, the algorithm is converged after 7 iterations. The results associated with each iteration are presented in Table II. After convergence, based on the third step of the proposed algorithm, final clusters are obtained as shown in Table III. The values lower than the minimum cluster; here 15003 MW, are considered as base load while the values upper than the maximum cluster; here 20318 MW, are considered to be the peak load. The distance between the peak and base load is the intermediate load as shown in Figure 2.
Peak load 18.44%
4321 5761 Time
Fig. 3. Load duration
of Iran network for 2001
Iteration 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 5608.275 216.329 113.640 66.440 34.363 18.600 6.691 TABLE III
Change in Cluster Centers
2 4861.253 146.022 76.818 45.443 23.721 12.864 4.621
Final Cluster Centers Cluster
B. Calculating Base, Intermediate and Peak load of Khozestan Region Network Khozestan is located in the south west of Iran and has a very hot climate. This is the main reason in selecting this region separately from the whole country presented in Subsection A. In addition, the study results presented in this section can be compared with those obtained for the whole country to show the impacts of weather climate on the percentage of base, intermediate and peak load. Similar to the previous study, the hourly peak load of 2001 for Khozestan region is used for the analysis of this section.
Using the nonhierarchical cluster algorithm and K-Means technique, the intervals associated with the base and peak load of Khozestan region are calculated. In the first step, the number of cluster is assumed to be 2 and based on the first step of the proposed algorithm initial cluster centers are determined as shown in Table IV.
o 2881 4321 Time 5761 7201 8641
Initial Cluster Centers Cluster 1 LOAD2001
Fig 4. Load hourly khoozestan network 2001
In the second step, the algorithm is converged after 5 iterations. The results associated with each iteration are presented in table V. After convergence, final clusters are obtained as shown in table VI. The values lower than the minimum cluster; here 1709 MW, are considered as base load while the values upper than the maximum cluster; here 2932 MW, are considered to be the peak load. The distance between the peak and base load is the intermediate load as shown in Figure 4.
Figure 5 shows that Khozestan region requires base load stations for 35.54% of the time during a year. 47.24% of the time period, this region requires generating units appropriate for the intermediate load. Finally the system should have sufficient peak load stations for 17.22% of the year. It can be seen from this figure that Khozestan region needs base load stations for 35.54% of time compared to that of the whole country which was 27.45%; i.e. about 7% more. This indicates that a region with the hot weather climate requires more base load stations.
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000
Peak load 17.22%
Iteration History Change in Cluster Centers
895.787 9.344 3.808 1.917 .427
833.085 17.982 7.204 3.607 .802
4321 5761 7201 8641
Fig 5. LDC khozestan network 2001
A new statistical approach is presented in this paper to calculate the three main parts of a system load demand; base, intermediate and peak-load using a cluster analysis. The cluster analysis is one of the statistical methods in data categorizing. The main advantage of the proposed technique is that it can be applied to situations in which LDC or system load factor varies. The applicability of the proposed technique is illustrated by determining base, intermediate and peak-load for two different case studies. The results are presented and compared for the two cases. The results presented indicate that regions with the hot weather climate require more base load stations.
Final Cluster Centers
V. ACKNOWLEDGMENT Financial support provided by Khozestan Electric Regional Company is gratefully acknowledged. VI. REFERENCES  Rahman, S., Rinaldy, " An efficient load model for analyzing demand
VII. VIII. BIOGRAPHIES
A. Salimi Beni was born in Iran. Obtained B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees in statistics from Shahid Beheshti university and Amir Kabir university (poly technique of Tehran) in 1998 and 2002 respectively. Worked in Iran Grid Management Company (IGMC) in the department of load forecasting where he conducted research in the area of load forecasting.
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M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad (IEEE Senior Member, 99) was born in Iran. Obtained B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees in electrical engineering from Sharif university of technology and Tehran university in 1986 and 1989 respectively and M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in electrical engineering from the university of Saskatchewan in 1993 and 1997 respectively. Dr. Fotuhi-Firuzabad worked as a postdoctoral fellow in the department of electrical engineering, university of Saskatchewan from Jan. 1998 to Sept. 2000 and from Sept. 2001 to Sept. 2002 where he conducted research in the area of power system reliability. He worked as an assistant professor in the same department from Sept. 2000 to Sept. 2001. Presently he is an associate professor and head of the Department of Electrical Engineering, Sharif University of technology, Tehran, Iran.
Davood Farrokhzad was born in 1963 in Tehran, Iran. He received the B.Sc. degree in electrical engineering and M.Sc. degree in industrial engineering from Sharif University of Technology, in 1990 and 1996 respectively. He received his PHD degree in industrial engineering from Sharif University of Technology in 2001. He has been working in Iran Power Generation and Transmission Company (TAVANIR) for about ten years and has been responsible for power system planning and reliability evaluations. In addition he has been engaged in hydro- thermal system studies for Iran Ministry of Energy. His current research interests are in application of optimization methods to power system planning and operation problems as well as in simulation techniques for stochastic modeling of power system
S. J. Alemohammad was born in Iran. Obtained his B.Sc. degree in physics from Tehran University in 1979. Presently he is manager of research and planning office in Khozestan electric regional company.