Resources and Energy Quarterly

June Quarter 2012

bree.gov.au

Resources and Energy Quarterly

June quarter 2012
bree.gov.au
1

BREE 2012, Resources and Energy Quarterly, June Quarter 2012, BREE, Canberra, June 2012. © Commonwealth of Australia 2012

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Postal address: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics GPO Box 1564 Canberra ACT 2601 Australia Phone: +61 2 6276 1000

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In the review section of Resources and Energy Quarterly there is a review of the on-going euro crisis. reviews of key topics and issues of relevance to the sector. Much of this rise in export values is because of large projected increases in the volume of bulk commodity exports. BREE’s latest forecast for the value of Australian exports of resources and energy for 2011–12 is about A$193 billion or about an 8 per cent increase from 2010–11. a review of an analysis of end use energy intensity of major household appliances. This issue provides an overview of the global macroeconomic situation. and detailed statistical tables on world production.Foreword Resources and Energy Quarterly is an important publication of the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE). The forecast for 2012–13 is for the export value of resources and energy to increase by about 8 per cent to around A$209 billion. The statistical tables in this and subsequent issues of Resources and Energy Quarterly incorporate what were previously published every quarter in BREE’s Resources and Energy Statistics. consumption. and an overview of the Australian coal industry. exports and values of major resources energy commodities and forecasts for 2011–2012 and 2012–13. Quentin Grafton Executive Director/Chief Economist Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 3 . the most up-to-date global production. stocks and trade in key commodities.

Contents Foreword Acronyms and abbreviations Macroeconomic outlook update and energy and minerals overview Energy outlook Oil Gas Prices 3 5 6 16 16 21 22 Resources outlook Gold Metals overview Copper Aluminium Alumina Nickel Zinc 26 34 37 40 44 47 49 54 Resources and Energy Quarterly Reviews PIIGS. a Trojan horse and an optimal currency area Energy intensity analysis of household appliances in Australia A short background of the Australian coal industry 59 60 67 79 Resources and Energy Quarterly Statistics 85 4 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .

Acronyms and abbreviations ABARES ABS BREE FOB GDP IEA IMF LME LNG mb/d MBtu Mt OECD OPEC PPP RBA TWI UNCTAD WTI Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science Australian Bureau of Statistics Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics free on board gross domestic product International Energy Agency International Monetary Fund London Metal Exchange liquefied natural gas millions of barrels per day million British thermal units million tonnes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries purchasing-power parity Reserve Bank of Australia trade-weighted index United Nations Conference on Trade and Development West Texas Intermediate Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 5 .

The spill-over from the euro zone crisis could also severely affect the rest of Europe. Downside risks may be accelerated if there were to be a disruption in global bond and currency markets that would be exacerbated by high budget deficits and debt in Japan and the US. and the impact of fiscal consolidation in response to market pressures. but then to reaccelerate to 6 per cent in 2013. Real GDP growth in the emerging and developing economies is projected to slow from 6. and possible contagion. The updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2012 projects improved economic activity in the US during the second half of 2012. and could result in rapidly slowing activity in some emerging economies. Despite the progress in strengthening crisis management in recent months. Global growth is projected to drop from about 3.Macroeconomic outlook update and energy and minerals overview Nhu Che. and a more expansionary policies in the euro area in response to the deepening economic crisis in the euro zone.7 per cent in 2011 to about 3.25 per cent in 2012 due to a slowdown caused by deteriorating sovereign and banking sector developments in the euro zone attributable to the current Greek economic crisis. Other European economies would likely experience further financial volatility. The IMF (the April WEO) predicts a gradual renewal of economic activity and a return to about 4 per cent global economic growth in 2013. although no major impact on activity is expected unless the euro zone crisis intensifies further. Some progress has been made in addressing fiscal imbalances and implementing structural reforms. The euro zone is still projected to drop into a mild recession in 2012 as a result of the Greek sovereign debt crisis and a general loss of confidence. but remains fragile with elevated downside risks The global economy is projected to grow slowly in 2012 relative to 2011. The ongoing political and economic crisis in Greece. but much work remains to be done. Economic conditions in Europe remain problematic. the effects of bank deleveraging on the real economy. Added to this.0 per cent in 2012. recession. In general. The IMF (the April WEO) records that the balance of risks to Europe’s nearterm growth prospects remains on the downside. lower than expected economic growth in China may have a negative impact on a number of advanced economies. weak recovery is expected in key advanced economies. are key concerns for the short-term outlook.4 per cent in 2011 to 6. and recent data that indicate a lower than expected rate of growth in China. and will remain fragile and subject to substantial downside risks. The euro zone may face a further crisis. 6 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Quentin Grafton and Pam Pham Growth continues. a renewed escalation of the euro crisis and the Greek economic crisis remains a possibility as long as the underlying issues are not resolved (see Review article on the euro crisis). including Australia. but economic activity is expected to remain robust in most emerging and developing economies.

3 4.5 3.1 0. In Asia.5 9.5 2.9 Economic growth b c OECD United States Japan Western Europe Germany France United Kingdom Italy Republic of Korea New Zealand Emerging countries Non-OECD Asia South East Asia d China e Chinese Taipei Singapore India Latin America Middle East Russian Federation Ukraine Eastern Europe % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 3.0 1. under the leadership of Antonis Samaras. Table 1: Key macroeconomic assumptions for resources and energy 2010 2011 1.2 1.8 4.2 4.0 6. the immediate concern for some of these emerging economies is their rising inflation.0 4. won the highest number of votes and it has formed a coalition government.In the 17 June Greek election the New Democracy party.2 5.3 4.9 3.3 5.7 –0.0 2.4 2. are trying to reduce the rates of price increases.4 1. but is expected to moderate in 2012 before regaining strength in 2013.9 10.4 7.7 3.8 –1.8 1.5 0.1 2.0 4.8 4.4 3.7 0.7 6.9 3.0 1.6 1.5 4. The election outcome has been viewed favourably by market commentators because the New Democracy Party is broadly in favour of the Greek bail-out and maintaining Greece within the euro zone.0 1.3 6.1 3.9 3.0 3.3 2012 a 1.9 3.2 continued Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 7 .4 7.7 1.2 5.7 2. Unlike some advanced economies concerned with lagging growth.7 7. Economic growth was robust in most of Asia and Latin America in 2011. India and China.7 4.5 1.0 3.2 4.1 3.6 0.8 4. and their actions have already moderated their previously very high rates of economic growth.5 3.1 5.0 –0.8 9.9 14.3 4.2 8.4 9.3 7.3 10.5 2.8 6.4 1.2 6.8 3.0 7.4 1.2 4.2 4.4 6.7 1.1 –0.0 7. recent data are broadly consistent with the modest slowdown that some authorities in the region have been trying to achieve in order to contain inflationary pressures.0 7. in particular.5 1.6 6.1 1.3 6.9 2.9 2013 a 1.7 0.1 3.

4 % 1. The Chinese economy continues to record strong growth. In part.0 7. g Commercial bank lending rates to prime borrowers in the US.9 9.3 percentage points lower than that assumed by BREE in March 2012.9 per cent in 2012. and measures to contain price increases in its property market. Thailand and Vietnam. Although economic growth has moderated since mid-2011.3 3. 8 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . IMF. RBA. which have helped to ease inflationary pressures.3 % pa 3. spill-over from problems in the broader global economy and some high internal risks facing the Chinese economy pose risks to its targeted level of economic growth.7 2. this expected easing in economic growth is due to domestic economic policies to combat inflation. in part due to continued solid domestic investment growth. although this is projected to moderate in 2012.6 3. b Change from previous period.4 2.Table 1: World c Key macroeconomic assumptions for resources and energy 2010 % 5. including the continuing unwinding of the 2008–09 fiscal stimulus. c Weighted using 2012 purchasing power parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the IMF. ABS. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is assumed to grow at 7.9 3. An annual rate of economic growth of 8. Chinese economic growth is projected to be around 8 per cent in 2012 and 2013.3 per cent is assumed for 2013. OECD.0 2011 3. Based on purchasing power parity terms (PPP). Malaysia. but also crude oil—have increased at a robust pace.3 2013 a 3.3 a BREE assumption.7 continued 2012 a 3.8 –0.9 16. Sources: BREE. d Indonesia. tighter monetary policy.3 3.3 3. Economic prospects in Australia’s major mining export markets Non-OECD economies China’s rapid economic growth provides a substantial impact on the demand for energy and mining products imported from Australia. the Philippines. This is 0.2 5.0 15.1 8.3 2.9 Industrial production b OECD Japan China Inflation rate b United States Interest rates US prime rate g % % % 7.9 9. consumption and investment are expected to remain robust. e Excludes Hong Kong. Growth has slowed to a more sustainable pace in China largely as a result of the effect of tighter domestic policies. Additionally. Commodity imports and consumption of more cyclical commodities—especially base metals.8 4.

which is a leading indicator of declining metal inventory buffers in the near term. industrial production in 2012 is projected to grow at around 5. Given a slight decrease in industrial production over the past quarter. Economic growth in India has moderated due to policies intended to combat rising inflationary pressures.Despite a slight moderation in its economic growth. Philippines. Economic growth is projected to be 6. In addition to the effect of tighter monetary policy.1 percentage points lower than expected by BREE in March 2012.4 per cent in 2012. Although there has been relatively weaker export demand. The slowing in growth follows a significant tightening in monetary policy. is consistent with an expectation of robust growth in the demand for base metals over the near term in China. Figure 1: Economic growth in Australia’s major resource and energy export markets 12 10 8 6 4 2 % -2 China Japan 2010 2011 Korea 2012 a India 2013 a United States a BREE assumption. This is below its early 2011 peak and 0.9 per cent in 2012. over the outlook period China is expected to continue its major role as a growth engine for the world economy. Source: BREE. The April WEO by the IMF discusses whether China will unexpectedly enter another period of ‘destocking’. near-term growth in ASEAN countries (including Indonesia. Thailand. manufacturing investment continues to grow. industrial production has also been affected by problems at a number of coal mines that have disrupted the fuel supply for coal-fired power stations. This investment should offset a possible slowdown in export momentum. Malaysia. and Vietnam) is assumed to be around 5. The recent increase in cancelled warrants relative to total stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses. Retail sales continue to expand and passenger vehicle sales are just below their late 2010 peak level. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 9 . As a result. Due to robust investment. 0.1 percentage points lower than assumed by BREE in March 2012. Chinese domestic demand remains strong.9 per cent.

including a decreasing trend in price within several economic sectors (such as mining). US economic activity gained strength through the year.1 per cent in 2012 and 2. with strong export-led growth of 3. is likely to make economic conditions in the southern economies more difficult in 2012. The US unemployment rate has declined in the past year and there are tentative signs of improvement in housing construction activity.7 percent on-year in April. such as Germany. rapid fiscal consolidation from start of 2013. has begun to show signs of the effects of weaker exports. which heavily depends on overseas demand. 0. Assumed very low nominal interest rates over the next two years are expected to provide support to investment. Australia’s economic prospects Real GDP in Australia. According to the April WEO projection. An expected slow-down in growth in the core northern euro zone economies. The pace of growth in the 17 countries in the euro zone slowed in 2011.9 percentage points lower than assumed in March 2012 by BREE.4 per cent in 2012. The Republic of Korea’s economy is expected to grow at around 3.5 per cent in 2012. With the euro region’s debt crisis ravaging economies from Greece to Spain. and a potential financial spill-over from Europe.1 per cent. The Republic of Korea’s economy.OECD economies Economic growth in OECD economies is assumed to be 1. Output in the mining and manufacturing sectors fell slightly in the first quarter of 2012. The Republic of Korea’s economic growth slowed recently due to lower exports caused by Europe’s debt crisis and the region’s economic downturn. with the quarterly growth rate rising each quarter. 0. the appreciation 10 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Risks to the outlook include fiscal uncertainty. and is estimated to grow at a rate of 2. The decrease in anticipated economic growth in 2011–12 is primarily a result of lower than expected economic growth in the last quarter of 2011.9 per cent in 2011–12.4 per cent in 2013. The annual growth rate in Japan is assumed to be 2. Economic growth is expected to be supported by increases in consumption and business investment. 0. The Reserve Bank of Australia cites the key factors contributing to lower annual growth are weaker export growth. primarily as a result of decreases in shipments to the EU and Japan.4 percentage points lower than assumed in March 2012 by BREE. Car makers and their suppliers are benefitting from demand in faster-growing markets such as China. Exports contracted 4.1 per cent. based on a PPP valuation of GDP.9 percentage points lower than expected in March 2012 by BREE. growth will slow in terms of industrial production and economic growth in 2012. Nevertheless. The US economy improved throughout 2011 and continues to expand at a moderate rate in 2012. and is expected to deteriorate further in 2012. while falling unemployment and rising wages are stimulating spending at home. German companies have shifted focus to emerging markets. Growth in the US was determined primarily by domestic factors in 2011. with forward-looking indicators of economic activity improving. weakness in the housing market. in the first quarter of 2012 the German economy actually grew more than expected due to exports to emerging markets which offset waning euro-area demand. is assumed to grow at an annual rate of 2. The German economy was the most robust economy in Western Europe in 2011.

9 2.8 3. although the high level of the exchange rate and rapid growth in mining investment is offset by weak building activity and fiscal consolidation. Australian domestic demand continues to grow at a robust pace.99 74 2011–12 a 2.01 76 Economic growth b c Inflation rate b Interest rates d Nominal exchange rates e US$/A$ Trade weighted index for A$ g a BREE assumption.03 76 2012–13 a 3.8 per cent. improved economic activity in the US. Sources: BREE.6 0. and are expected to contribute to solid growth in resource export volumes over the foreseeable future. private demand grew roughly as anticipated. due to large volume increases. Factors that would make the Australian dollar relatively weaker include a continuation of the euro zone recession. lower economic growth in China. Overall. The growth in the Australian economy is expected to be supported by mining-related activities.3 2. e Average of daily rates. c Weighted using 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by IMF. ABS. The recent fall of the Australian dollar from a peak of US108c and TWI 79 in late February 2012 is a result of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the second quarter of 2012.9 6. dwelling investment was slightly weaker. b Change from previous period. This compares with US104c and TWI 77 in January 2012.1 6. Significant expansions of iron ore and coal production capacity are underway.7 7. Export growth is assumed to be at an above-trend pace.3 6. In mid-June 2012.2 1. RBA. The Australian economy is assumed to rebound in 2012–13 and grow at around 3. public spending was less than expected. and further interest rate cuts by the RBA in 2012. and lower-than-anticipated growth in the global economy.0 0.88 69 2010–11 1. There are several important drivers of the Australian exchange rate over the near term. In March the Australian dollar traded at US102c and TWI 76. Table 2: Australia’s key macroeconomic assumptions for resources and energy % % % pa US$ index 2009–10 2. reduced demand for China’s exports to Europe. Additionally. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 11 .of the exchange rate. The Australian dollar traded across a wide range during the first half of 2012. the Australian dollar traded around US99c while the trade-weighted index was around 75. including high levels of mining investment. d Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.7 1. and business investment slightly stronger. g Base: May 1970 = 100.8 2.

particularly uranium and black coal. Projected year-on-year volume export increases in terms of Australia’s bulk commodities (iron ore. In 2012–13. primarily due to a 7 per cent increase in the output of energy commodities. Figure 2: Australian mine production index 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 index 1997-98=100 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 energy 2004-05 minerals 2008-09 2012-13 Source: BREE. the total export earnings for energy and mineral commodities are forecast to increase by 8 per cent to $209. LNG (up 29 per cent to $16. Another contributing factor to this growth will be a forecast of 5 per cent increase in the production of metals and other minerals. By contrast. total employment in the mining sector increased by 19 per cent to total 205 300 people. the gross value added produced from mining activities decreased by 2 per cent to $100. metallurgical and thermal coal.6 billion). Energy commodity export earnings in 2012–13 are anticipated to grow by 7 per cent to $82. and LNG) in 2012-13 are expected to be in excess of 10 per cent.7 billion (in 2011–12 dollars) compared with 2009–10.3 billion as a result of strong increases in export earnings from thermal coal (up 7 per cent to $18. Most of this increase is attributable to employment in the metal ore industry and the coal industry.Australian resources and energy commodities production and exports In 2010–11. The Australian mine production index based on an index of 16 commodities is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2012–13. relative to 2011–12.0 billion) and uranium (up 9 per cent to $800 million).5 billion supported by increases in the export values for both energy and mineral commodities (see Figure 3). 12 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . underpinned by rising copper and gold production.

7 – 12.4 26.1 7.8 10.0 21.2 7.2 9. iron ore (up 7 per cent to $67 billion) and copper (up 7 per cent to $9 billion).8 6.1 10. Table 3: Australia’s resources and energy commodity exports.4 9. Sources: BREE. Overall.1 2. gold (up 27 per cent to $19. The major indicators for Australia’s resources and energy commodity sector are presented in Table 4.9 2011–12 f 5 507 3 839 8 418 15 558 62 788 3 902 2 263 12 392 30 310 17 358 13 012 732 Value 2012–13 f 7 144 3 374 9 043 19 722 66 936 4 138 2 331 16 037 29 682 18 590 13 319 799 growth % 29.2 8.4 – 2. Partially offsetting the increased export earnings for mineral commodities will be lower forecast export earnings for aluminium (down 12 per cent to $3.1 13.0 3.1 billion as a result of increases in the export values of alumina (up 30 per cent to $7. the outlook for Australian resources and energy commodities production and exports in 2012–13 remains robust (see Table 3).4 12.4 billion) and metallurgical coal (down 2 per cent to $29.1 7.2 Alumina Aluminium Copper Gold Iron ore Nickel Zinc LNG Metallurgical coal Thermal coal Oil Uranium kt kt kt t Mt kt kt Mt Mt Mt ML t $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m f BREE forecast.6 6.Figure 3: Australian energy and minerals export earnings 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2011-12 A$b 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 energy 2004-05 minerals 2008-09 2012-13 Source: BREE.1 billion).6 1.7 billion). by selected commodities 2011–12 f 16 942 1 713 884 331 463 240 1 555 19 142 159 19 167 7 217 Volume 2012–13 f 19 416 1 563 974 361 510 258 1 571 23 161 179 19 389 7 860 growth % 14. Detailed forecast and projection for major energy and minerals commodities are outlined in the following Resources Outlook and Energy Outlook sections.5 1. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 13 .6 – 8. Mineral commodity export earnings in 2012–13 are forecast to increase by 10 per cent to $127.7 billion).0 29. ABS.

03 1.6 Resources and energy sector Volume index 120.3 135.9 127.0 8.0 107.4 1. ABARES.4 of mine production – energy index 116.9 113.01 index index index 100. f BREE forecast.9 – metals index 124.8 105.2 136.6 125.2 121.4 6.3 137.6 119.7 6.4 b Base 2011–12=100. 14 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .3 3.0 109.8 136.0 100.75 0.5 123.3 122. z BREE projection.5 A$m 148 702 197 701 171 551 215 316 231 369 246 745 7.4 155 324 133 890 172 068 185 563 201 081 7.6 144.7 A$m A$m A$m 117 362 45 591 71 771 161 796 77 892 83 903 139 468 57 478 81 990 179 237 69 670 109 567 193 295 77 153 116 142 209 459 82 312 127 147 7.4 152.5 6.3 3.7 140.0 100.8 8.7 9.8 10.0 – 1.4 130.0 135.9 134.0 4.2 – 3.3 146.99 1.9 Commodity exports Exchange rate US$/A$ Unit returns b Resources and energy – energy – metals and other minerals Value of exports Resources and energy – energy – metals and other minerals Total commodities 0.1 0.8 – 3.0 144.0 141.1 4.88 0.1 124. ABS.8 7.1 6.4 142.90 0.4 140.6 168.4 5.1 and other minerals Gross value of mine production A$m 112 667 121.Table 4: Major indicators for Australia’s resources and energy commodity sector 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f Change from previous year (%) 2011–12 2012–13 4. Sources: BREE.7 9.8 138.4 141.

Major Australian commodity exports
LNG and alumina are export unit returns in $A. All other commodities are world indicator prices in $US. For export value, annual forecasts are the sum of quarterly forecasts. As a result, annual export values do not necessarily re ect variations in export volumes, world prices and exchange rates. Iron ore and metallurgical coal are average negotiated contract prices for calendar years (e.g. 2011–12 = 2011). Thermal coal is the annual negotiated contract price for the Japanese scal year running from April 2011 to March 2012.

2012-13 f 2011-12 f

2011–12 f volume world price
na na

value

Iron ore and pellets Metallurgical coal Gold

A$66.9ba A$62.8b A$29.7bb A$30.3b A$19.7b c A$15.6b A$18.6bd A$17.4b A$16.0b e A$12.4b A$13.3b f A$13.0b A$9.0bg A$8.4b A$7.1bh A$5.5b

Iron ore and pellets Metallurgical coal Gold Thermal coal LNG Crude oil Copper Alumina Nickel Aluminium Zinc Bunker fuel


10%


7%


13%


-2%


9%


2%


27%

Thermal coal


13%


-11%


7%

LNG


21%


7%


29%


1%


4%


2%

Crude oil


10%


2%


7%

Copper


15%


13%


30%

Alumina


8%


-8%


6%

Nickel

A$4.1b Iron and steel A$3.9b A$3.4b j A$3.8b A$2.3bk A$2.3b A$1.9b l A$1.6b


-9%


-2%


-12%

Aluminium


1%


7%


3%

Zinc


1%


14%


15%

Bunker fuel

Titanium and zircon
Titanium and zircon Lead Manganese ore LPG A$1.6bm A$1.7b A$1.5b n A$2.1b A$1.2b o A$1.2b A$1.1bp A$1.0b 0 $b 20 40 60 80


-3%


-4%


-7%

Lead


-10%


0%


-28%

Manganese ore


5% na


4%

LPG


3%


8%


12%

Resources and Energy Quarterly

vol 1 no 4

June quarter 2012 15

Energy outlook
Oil
Nina Hitchins

Oil prices higher in 2013
Crude oil prices eased in April and May 2012, and the Brent-WTI differential narrowed. In May the WTI price averaged US$95 a barrel and the Brent price averaged US$110, around 7 per cent lower than the average for the March quarter 2012 (see Figure 1). Lower prices reflected perceived easing of tensions in the Middle East, European sovereign debt concerns, slowing economic growth in China, and increasing OECD stocks. The WTI price is forecast to average US$96 a barrel in 2012 and US$102 a barrel in 2013. The Brent price is forecast to average US$111 a barrel in 2012 and US$113 a barrel in 2013. Increasing oil consumption and persistently low OPEC spare capacity will underpin increases in oil prices. OPEC spare capacity has continued to fall since the December quarter 2011. In May 2012, it averaged 3.1 million barrels a day, or around 8 per cent of OPEC production. Lower OPEC spare capacity reflected an incremental increase of OPEC crude production of 1 million barrels a day, relative to the end of 2011. Increased production offset expansions in capacity, particularly in Libya. OPEC spare capacity is expected to remain low for the remainder of 2012 and 2013, as a result of increasing OPEC production. Low OPEC spare capacity is expected to support higher prices. There are several risks to the oil price forecast throughout 2012 and 2013. Deteriorating market sentiment with regard to the euro zone, and weaker than assumed economic growth in China could reduce world oil consumption and put downward pressure on prices. Alternatively, escalating tensions in the Middle East including those between the international community and Iran could reduce apparent availability of supply and support higher than forecast prices.

16 Resources and Energy Quarterly

vol 1 no 4

June quarter 2012

Figure 1:

WTI and Brent oil prices
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2012 US$/bbl 2003

2005

2007 WTI

2009

2011 Brent

2013

Source: BREE.

Growth in world consumption forecast to accelerate in 2013
World oil consumption is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2012 to 90.1 million barrels a day. In 2013, economic activity is assumed to pick-up and world oil consumption is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to 91.5 million barrels a day (see Figure 2). Increases in non-OECD consumption are expected to offset moderate falls in OECD consumption. Consumption in the OECD is forecast to fall 0.8 per cent in 2012 to 45.3 million barrels a day. Lower consumption in North America and Europe is forecast to offset increases in the OECD Pacific (Japan, the Republic of Korea and Australasia). Increases in OECD Pacific oil consumption are forecast to be supported by oil-fired electricity generation in Japan. Oil-fired electricity generation will be relied on to bridge the gap as a result of the temporary shutdown of Japan’s nuclear industry. In 2013, OECD oil consumption is forecast to remain relatively unchanged. Structural declines in the oil use intensity of OECD economies are forecast to be offset by stronger economic growth. Consumption in non-OECD economies is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in both 2012 and 2013 to average 46.3 million barrels a day in 2013. A third of non-OECD growth is forecast to be attributable to China. Assumed weaker economic growth during 2012 will underpin lower growth in China’s oil consumption, which is forecast to slow to 4 per cent, down from 5 per cent in 2011. In 2013, China’s oil consumption growth is forecast to rebound to 5 per cent and average 10.4 million barrels a day.

Resources and Energy Quarterly

vol 1 no 4

June quarter 2012 17

18 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . IEA. In 2013. Persistent unplanned outages during the first five month of 2012 are forecast to moderate growth in non-OPEC production during 2012. Non-OPEC production is forecast to increase by around 1 per cent in both 2012 and 2013 and account for a quarter of the incremental increases in world production during the outlook period. Production in the UK and Norway is forecast to decrease in 2012 as a result of scheduled and unplanned maintenance. and Chevron’s Papa-Terra. US oil production is forecast to increase 6 per cent in 2012 and 2 per cent in 2013 to average 8. and planned maintenance from the Sea Rose floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) and Terra Tonva FPSO.8 million barrels a day. North America’s oil production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2012. Outages continue to occur in the North Sea. Increases are forecast to be underpinned by the development of several new projects in Brazil such as Petrobras’ Parque das Beleias and Roncador module 4. are forecast to offset lower production from maturing conventional fields in Alaska and California. OPEC to underpin forecast increases in production World oil production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2012 and 2013 to 91. Nicobara and Eagle Ford formations. Canada’s oil production is expected to increase by 4 per cent to average 3. Increases in ‘tight oil’ production. primarily from the Bakken.8 million barrels a day. reflecting lower production estimates from Syncrude Canada.Figure 2: World oil consumption 60 50 40 30 20 10 mb/d 2003 2005 OECD 2007 2009 non-OECD 2011 2013 Sources: BREE. from 4 per cent in 2011. Africa and Europe.5 million barrels a day in 2013 (see Figure 3). Oil production in Canada is forecast to slow to 3 per cent in 2012. offsetting declines in non-OPEC Middle East. Latin America’s oil production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2012 and 5 per cent in 2013.

Increases in OPEC production are forecast to be underpinned by growth in the production of natural gas liquids. In 2012–13. which commenced in October 2011. is expected to partially offset these declines. Australia’s crude oil and condensate production is forecast to increase by 1 per cent as a result of the commencement of crude production from the Montara/Skua project and condensate from the Kipper gas project. reflecting forecast higher oil prices (see Figure 4). Australia’s exports of crude oil and condensate are forecast to follow a similar profile to production. multiple unplanned shut-ins throughout the Carnarvon basin during cyclone season. Lower production reflects planned maintenance on the North West Shelf for a redevelopment project. and increase by 1 per cent in 2012–13 to total 19. Exports are forecast to contact by 2 per cent in 2011–12. The value of Australian oil exports is forecast to increase to $13.3 billion in 2012–13. while OPEC crude oil production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent a year. and declines from maturing fields.4 gigalitres. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 19 . Figure 3: World oil supply 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 mb/d 2003 2005 non-OPEC 2007 OPEC crude oil 2009 2011 OPEC natural gas liquids 2013 Sources: BREE.OPEC oil production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2012 and 2013 to average 37. Output from the Kitan project in the Bonaparte Basin.9 million barrels a day in 2013.8 gigaliters. IEA. relative to 2010–11. Australia’s production and exports Australia’s production of crude oil and condensate is forecast to contract by 8 per cent in 2011– 12. to total 22.

c Primary products sold as LPG.5 1. Australian Bureau of Statistics.5 91.1 90.2 barrels a day.5 2.0 b One megalitre a year equals about 17. f BREE forecast.3 12.1 % change Production b Consumption Brent crude oil price West Texas Intermediate crude oil price mbd mbd US$/bbl US$/bbl 88. ABS.2 2.2 110 95 2010–11 Australia Crude oil and condensate Production b Exports – value Imports LPG Production c Exports – value ML ML A$m ML ML ML A$m 24 745 d 19 638 11 772 31 766 3 907 2 471 1 068 22 826 19 167 13 012 30 107 3 913 2 203 1 022 23 034 19 389 13 319 28 943 3 946 2 276 1 145 0.3 89. ABARES.1 111 96 2011–12 f 2013 f 91. International Energy Agency. Sources: BREE. 20 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Table 1: World Oil outlook 2011 2012 f 90. Energy Quest.9 1. d Energy Quest.8 3. Energy Information Administration (US Department of Energy).9 0.5 113 102 2012–13 f % change 1.4 –3.Figure 4: 25 20 15 10 5 GL Australia’s crude oil and condensate exports 15 12 9 6 3 0 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 exports 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 value (real) Sources: BREE.0 6.

Table 2: Australia Production LNG exports – value Gas outlook 2010–11 Gm3 Mt A$m 53. The value of Australia’s LNG exports is forecast to increase to $16 billion in 2012–13. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 21 .4 f BREE forecast.Gas Australian gas production is forecast to fall by 2 per cent to 52. reflecting greater export volumes and higher oil-linked LNG prices.96 10 437 2011–12 f 52.25 12 392 2012–13 f 58.1 20. Sources: BREE. Lower production as a result of maintenance is forecast to offset new production from the Pluto facility. gas production is forecast to increase by 13 per cent to 58. ABARES.9 23. Department of Resources.1 19. ABS. Figure 5: 25 20 15 10 5 Mt 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 exports 2008-09 value (real) 2010-11 2012-13 Australia’s gas exports 20 16 12 8 4 2011-12 A$/b Sources: BREE. In 2012–13. In 2012–13. which commenced operations in April 2012. reflecting planned maintenance to the North West Shelf LNG facility and the Darwin LNG facility.26 16 037 % change 13. relative to 2010–11.8 29.9 billion cubic metres reflecting new production from the Pluto/Xena and Kipper gas fields.1 19. Australia’s exports are forecast to increase 21 per cent to total 23 million tonnes. declines from maturing fields in the Gippsland Basin and delays to the Kipper project. Lower production reflects maintenance at LNG facilities. Energy and Tourism.1 billion cubic meters in 2011–12. Australia’s LNG exports are forecast to decrease by 4 per cent in 2011–12. as production at the Pluto facility is scaled up towards capacity (see Figure 5).

relative to 2011. The global seaborne trade in 2013 is forecast to increase by a further 5 per cent. China is forecast to increase its seaborne imports by 6 million tonnes in both 2012 and 2013 to total 145 and 151 million tonnes. 22 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . relative to 2012. relative to 2011. Imports Growth in imports in 2012 and 2013 will primarily be supported by increased demand from Asia. World trade The world thermal coal seaborne trade in 2012 is forecast to increase by around 4 per cent. to total 919 million tonnes. Higher electricity demand associated with robust economic growth in emerging economies is expected to be a key driver of demand. and by a further 17 per cent in 2013 to total 104 million tonnes. India and the European Union (EU). This price represents a decrease of about 12 per cent from the JFY 2011 price. respectively. India is forecast to contribute the most to this growth.Thermal coal Tom Shael Prices Thermal coal contract prices were settled in early June at around US$115 a tonne for Japanese Financial Year (JFY) 2012 with several Japanese power utilities (see Figure 1). to total 871 million tonnes. In line with lower expected economic growth in China. thermal coal spot prices are around a US$30 a tonne discount from the JFY 2012 contract price. growing by 14 per cent in 2012. Figure 1: JFY thermal coal prices 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 JFY 2012 US$/t 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: BREE.

Japan’s imports in 2013 are forecast to increase by a further 1 million tonnes. is expected to decline sharply as producers respond to falling domestic demand and lower export prices.5 million tonnes). Indonesia’s exports are forecast to increase by 2 per cent to total 308 million tonnes. This expected decline is a result of assumed weak economic growth and lower electricity demand stemming from the euro zone crisis. In 2013. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 23 . before increasing by a further 4 per cent in 2013 to 319 million tonnes. exports from the US are forecast to increase by 16 per cent. This growth is expected to be supported by increased production from PT Bumi’s. PT Adaro Energy’s and PT Indika Energy’s coal mines along with output expansions from mines located in the East Kalimantan region. stage 1 of Yancoal’s Moolarben mine (8 million tonnes) and Peabody Energy’s expansion of its Wilpinjong operation (additional annual capacity of 2–3 million tonnes). exports should be robust as producers sell their stocks before placing mines on care and maintenance. however. This large increase will be supported by production from soonto-be-commissioned mines that include the Hunter Valley Operations Expansion (6 million tonnes) and Narrabri Coal Project stage 2 expansion (4. The sharp upturn is expected to be a response to low domestic demand arising from the cheap and plentiful supply of natural gas. In 2012. Japan’s imports of thermal coal are forecast to increase slightly in 2012 to total 128 million tonnes in response to the temporary shutdown of its nuclear electricity generation capacity. In 2013 an assumed increase in economic growth in Europe will contribute to a 3 million tonnes increase in import demand into the EU from 2012 levels. Exports in 2013 are forecast to fall relative to 2012 levels to total 31 million tonnes. Australia’s exports are forecast to increase by 11 per cent to 164 million tonnes. to 129 million tonnes. Increased volumes are forecast from: Xstrata’s Mangoola mine (annual capacity of 8 million tonnes). relative to 2011. Exports from Colombia are forecast to remain relatively unchanged in 2012.In 2012. Indonesia and Colombia. This represents a volume increase in Australia of 16 million tonnes that will be underpinned higher production rates from existing mines and recently commissioned operations. Exports Higher import demand across 2012 and 2013 is forecast to be supplied with higher exports from Australia. imports into the EU are forecast to fall by 1 million tonnes to 160 million tonnes. Colombia’s higher thermal coal exports in 2013 should be supported by expansions to capacity at mines in the La Guajira and César regions. Domestic production of thermal coal in the second half of 2012. In 2012. Australia’s exports are forecast to increase by a further 17 per cent to total 192 million tonnes. before increasing by 6 million tonnes to total 82 million tonnes in 2013. to total 36 million tonnes. In 2012. Despite the fall in production.

Australia
In 2011–12, Australia’s thermal coal production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent, relative to 2010–11, to total 223 million tonnes. Production in 2012–13 is forecast to increase by a further 9 per cent, to 244 million tonnes. In line with higher production, exports of thermal coal in 2011–12 and 2012–13 are forecast to be 159 million tonnes and 179 million tonnes, respectively. The growth in export volumes will be supported by increased port capacity associated with the start-up of the Port Waratah Coal Services’ Kooragang Island Coal Terminal expansion (11 million tonnes a year), the X50 expansion at Abbot Point (25 million tonnes a year) and higher throughput at the Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group’s Coal Terminal. In 2011–12 the value of Australia’s thermal coal exports is forecast to increase by 24 per cent, relative to 2010–11, to total $17.4 billion primarily as a result of higher export volumes. In 2012–13, forecast higher export volumes will outweigh lower contract prices for JFY 2012 that should result in export earnings increasing to $18.6 billion. Figure 2:
200

Australia’s thermal coal exports
20

150

15

100

10

50

5 2011-12 A$b 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 volume 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 value (right axis)

Mt

Sources: BREE; ABS.

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Table 1:

Thermal coal outlook
2011 2012 f 115 871 599 145 68 89 128 99 21 49 205 160 45 67 164 12 76 308 99 69 36 108 2011–12 f 223.4 159.0 17 358 2013 f 100 919 632 151 69 104 129 102 22 55 210 163 48 77 192 12 82 319 99 72 31 111 2012–13 f 244.3 179.3 18 590 % change –13.0 5.4 5.4 4.1 1.8 16.9 0.4 3.0 3.9 12.4 2.4 1.6 5.5 14.3 17.4 2.5 7.8 3.6 0.6 3.7 –13.9 3.0 % change 9.4 12.8 7.1

World Thermal coal Contract prices b Coal trade Imports Asia – China – Chinese Taipei – India – Japan – Korea, Rep. of – Malaysia – other Asia Europe – European Union 27 c – other Europe Other Exports Australia China Colombia Indonesia Russian Federation South Africa United States Other Australia Production Exports – value

US$/t Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt

130 837 569 139 67 78 125 97 20 43 204 161 43 64 148 13 75 302 97 66 31 105 2010–11 206.1 s 143.3 13 956

Mt Mt A$m

b Japanese Fiscal Year, starting April 1, fob Australia basis, BREE Australia–Japan average contract price assessment. For steaming coal with a calorific value of 6700 kcal/kg (gross air dried. c Regarded as 27 countries for all years. f BREE forecast. s BREE estimate.
Sources: BREE; ABARES; International Energy Agency; Coal Services Pty Ltd; Queensland Department of Mines and Energy.

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Resources outlook
Steel and steel-making raw materials
Rubhen Jeya

Contract prices
In the first quarter of 2012, iron ore spot prices averaged around US$135 a tonne for 62 per cent iron ore content free on board (FOB) Australia, an increase of 4 per cent from the previous quarter. The increase in spot prices was largely due to the effect of weather-related supply disruptions in Western Australia and Brazil, and restocking in China. In the June quarter 2012, spot prices have averaged around US$135 a tonne, but prices in the second half of the June quarter have fallen. For 2012 as a whole, contract prices are forecast to average around US$136 a tonne (see Figure 1). In 2013, contract prices are assumed to moderate to average around US$131 a tonne. The forecast decrease in prices is a result of projected increased supply from Australia and Brazil, and a moderation of growth in import demand. The June quarter 2012 contract prices for high-quality hard coking coal settled at around US$210 a tonne. This represents an 11 per cent decline from the March quarter contract price primarily due to weaker import demand. The September quarter contract prices are expected to settle higher at around US$225 a tonne partly as a result of reduced production associated with industrial action at BHP Billiton-Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) mines in Queensland. For 2012 as a whole, contract prices for high-quality hard coking coal are forecast to average around US$221 a tonne. Hard coking coal contract prices are projected to moderate through 2013, underpinned by supply increases from Australia, Canada, Mongolia and Mozambique. Figure 1: Raw material contract prices, FOB Australia
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2012 US$/t

2003

2005 hard coking

2007

2009

2011

2013

semi-soft coking

iron ore (62% iron content)

Source: BREE.

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In 2012 and 2013. World Steel Association. relative to 2012.55 billion tonnes (see Table 1). steel demand for infrastructure construction and higher consumption of consumer durables is expected to underpin a 7 per cent increase in steel consumption in 2013. to total 648 million tonnes and 676 million tonnes. in line with assumed weaker economic growth across the OECD and China. respectively. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 27 . Rep. to total 1. In the European Union (EU). of Chinese Taipei India World steel production Sources: BREE. relative to 2011. supported by demand from the construction of infrastructure projects in a number of developing economies. China’s steel consumption is forecast to increase by 4 per cent each year. to 1.Steel World steel consumption In 2012. In India. strong growth in steel consumption has been supported by the construction of public infrastructure and manufacturing of consumer durables. Rep. Table 1: World steel consumption and production (Mt) 2010   160 90 30 42 600 68 55 21 66 1389   173 81 33 67 627 110 58 20 67 1415 2011   162 94 31 44 624 69 56 24 76 1448   176 86 35 69 683 108 68 23 72 1511 2012   162 95 32 45 648 74 57 25 80 1494   175 89 37 71 723 111 72 23 75 1573 2013   162 97 34 47 676 77 59 25 86 1549   175 92 39 74 760 113 75 24 79 1634   Crude steel consumption European Union 27 United States Brazil Russian Federation China Japan Korea. In 2013.5 billion tonnes. In China. the rate of growth is forecast to slow. Despite robust growth in steel consumption. Downward revisions have been made to China’s steel consumption growth from the March 2012 Resource and Energy Quarterly due to a reduction in assumed domestic economic growth. of Chinese Taipei India World steel consumption Crude steel production European Union 27 United States Brazil Russian Federation China Japan Korea. relative to 2011. world steel consumption is forecast to increase by about 4 per cent. steel consumption is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2012 and 2013 due to an assumed contraction in economic growth over the period. world steel consumption is forecast to increase by 3 per cent.

63 billion tonnes in 2013.57 billion tonnes. to total 1.1 billion tonnes. and increase by a further 5 per cent to 79 million tonnes in 2013. relative to 2011.2 billion tonnes (see Table 2). steel production in 2012 and in 2013 is forecast to remain largely unchanged. The growth in steel production is expected to be supported by increased production from both public and private steel producers. at around 175 million tonnes. For 2012. similar to levels in 2011. This is due to the steel industry operating well below capacity. relative to 2011. In the first four months of 2012. India’s steel production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to 75 million tonnes in 2012. World trade in iron ore in 2013 is forecast to increase by a further 6 per cent to 1. Figure 2: 120 100 80 60 40 20 Mt Jan-08 Monthly world steel production Jul-08 Jan-09 China India Jul-09 Japan South Korea Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 United States Germany Russian Federation Source: World steel association.World steel production In 2012. China had robust steel production totalling 235 million tonnes. Moreover. China achieved a record rate of production in March 2012 that was equivalent to an annualised rate of 738 million tonnes (see Figure 2). and increase by a further 4 per cent to 1. world steel production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent. China’s steel production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to total 723 million tonnes before increasing by a further 5 per cent to 760 million tonnes in 2013. world trade in iron ore is forecast to increase by 5 per cent from 2011 to 1. In the EU. India’s steel production was 24 million tonnes. Iron ore In 2012. 28 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . In the first four months of the year.

Iron ore imports
In 2012, China’s imports of iron ore are forecast to increase by 8 per cent, compared with 2011, to total 699 million tonnes. In 2013, imports are forecast to increase by a further 4 per cent to 724 million tonnes. The increase in iron ore imports will be underpinned by continued growth in steel production and domestic iron ore consumption growth that will continue to outpace the rise in domestic production. Iron ore imports into the EU in 2012 and 2013 are forecast to remain steady at around 137 million tonnes. The lack of growth in iron ore imports in 2012 and 2013 reflects unchanged levels of steel production in these years. Imports by other major iron ore consumers, such as the Republic of Korea and Japan, are expected to continue to increase in line with modest growth in steel production in 2012 and 2013. Table 2: World iron ore trade (Mt)
2010 Iron ore imports European Union 27 Japan China Korea, Rep. of Chinese Taipei World imports Iron ore exports Australia Brazil India Canada South Africa West Africa (Guinea & Mauritania) World exports Source: BREE. 402 311 96 33 48 11 1051 439 313 63 34 54 12 1075 479 326 48 36 58 14 1133 535 361 53 37 64 15 1204 133 134 619 56 19 1051 136 128 645 64 22 1075 137 134 699 67 23 1133 137 136 724 72 23 1204 2011 2012 2013

Iron ore exports
In 2012, Australia’s exports of iron ore are forecast to increase by 9 per cent from the previous year to total 479 million tonnes. The increase will be supported by capacity expansions at a number of mines including those operated by Rio Tinto, and the ramp up of production at BHP Billiton’s Rapid Growth Project 5. In 2013, Australia’s iron ore exports are forecast to increase by a further 12 per cent, supported by new mine operations scheduled to start in late 2012 and 2013. These include: Fortescue’s Chichester Hub (capacity of 40 million tonnes per year), CITIC Pacific Mining’s Sino Iron Project (capacity of 28 million tonnes per year) and Rio Tonto’s Hope Downs 4 (capacity of 15 million tonnes per year) and Western Turner Syncline 2 (capacity of 9 million tonnes per year).

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In the financial year 2011–12, Australia’s export volumes are forecast to increase by 14 per cent, relative to 2010–11, to total 463 million tonnes. The value of Australia’s iron ore exports in 2011–12 is forecast to increase by 8 per cent to $63 billion, compared with 2010–11. In 2012–13, Australia’s iron ore export volumes are forecast to increase by 10 per cent, relative to 2011–12, to total 510 million tonnes. The value of iron ore export values in 2013–13 is forecast to increase by 7 per cent to $67 billion (see Figure 3). This value is largely attributable to an increase in export volumes that will outweigh a slight decline in prices from the previous corresponding period. In 2012, Brazil’s iron ore exports are forecast to increase by 4 per cent, relative to 2011, to total 326 million tonnes. Brazil’s exports in 2013 are forecast to increase by 11 per cent year on year to total 361 million tonnes. The slower growth in 2012, relative to 2013 is largely attributable to weather related production losses in the first quarter of 2012. The increase in exports in 2013 is largely a result of the increase in production at a number of mines in the south-eastern Systems and at Carajas where production is expected to ramp up from recent expansions and also from increased production at existing mines as these return to normal levels of production. A large proportion of these exports are expected to be sourced from expansions to Vale’s operations. Figure 3:
600 500 400 300 200 100 Mt 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 volume 2008-09 value (right axis) 2010-11 2012-13

Australia’s iron ore exports
78 65 52 39 26 13 2011-12 A$b

Sources: BREE; ABS.

Metallurgical coal
In 2012, global trade in metallurgical coal is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 286 million tonnes. World metallurgical trade is forecast to increase by a further 3 per cent to 296 million tonnes in 2013 supported by import growth in China and India (see Table 3).

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Metallurgical coal imports
In the first three months of 2012, China increased its imports of metallurgical coal by around 17 per cent from the previous quarter. The higher volumes were sourced from increased exports from Australia and Mongolia. For 2012 as a whole, China’s metallurgical coal imports are forecast to increase by 15 per cent to 53 million tonnes, partly as a result of restocking at steel mills, but also from forecast robust steel production throughout 2012. In 2013, China’s imports are forecast to increase by a further 6 per cent to 56 million tonnes, as metallurgical coal consumption outpaces growth in domestic production. The other major source of metallurgical coal import growth is India, where imports are forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2012 to total 34 million tonnes, and by a further 6 per cent to 36 million tonnes in 2013. Imports by the EU are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2012 and 2013 from 2011 at around 46 million tonnes. The lack of growth in 2012 and 2013 is consistent with stagnant steel production forecast for these years. Table 3: World metallurgical coal trade (Mt)
2010 Metallurgical coal imports European Union 27 Japan China Korea, Rep. of Chinese Taipei India Brazil World imports Metallurgical coal exports Australia Canada United States Russian Federation World exports Source: BREE. 159 28 51 14 273 133 30 55 17 270 149 33 51 18 286 163 35 46 20 296 45 58 48 28 5 30 12 273 45 55 46 34 7 32 13 270 46 55 53 34 7 34 14 286 46 56 56 35 7 36 15 296 2011 2012 2013

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underpinned by increased production from BMA mines in Queensland under the assumption that current industrial disputes conclude shortly. During the 2012–13. Exports in 2013 are forecast to increase further by 9 per cent to 163 million tonnes.7 billion due to forecast lower contract prices for 2012–13 (see Figure 4). There is also expected to be increased production from a number of mines that are scheduled to start up in 2013. Australia’s metallurgical coal exports are forecast to increase by 13 per cent to 161 million tonnes. Australia’s metallurgical coal export volumes in the financial year 2011–12 are forecast to increase by 1 per cent to 142 million tonnes and this is expected to result in an increase in export earnings by 2 per cent to $30 billion. such as Peabody Energy’s Burton mine and at Anglo Coal’s Grosvenor underground mines. 32 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . US metallurgical coal exports are forecast to decrease by 7 per cent relative to 2011 to total 51 million tonnes. Despite high export volumes. ABS. Exports are forecast to decline by a further 11 per cent in 2013 to total 46 million tonnes. In 2012. Figure 4: 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Mt 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 volume 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 value (right axis) Australia’s metallurgical coal exports 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2011-12 A$b Sources: BREE. earnings are forecast to decline by 2 per cent to $29.Metallurgical coal exports Australia is the largest exporter of metallurgical coal in the world. Australia’s metallurgical coal exports in 2012 are forecast to increase by 12 per cent to 149 million tonnes as mines in Queensland recover from flood-related disruptions in 2011. The decline in US metallurgical coal exports is partly a result of a decline in import demand in Europe and from the idling of a number of coal mines.

Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 33 . Goonyella export coal.31 450 147 s 5.6 Mt A$m Mt A$m Mt A$m 1. For example.3 –19. Coal Services Australia.1 b fob Australian basis. Sources: BREE. Australian Harmonized Export Commodity Classification.38 509 146 4. e Includes all steel items in ABS. Queensland Coal Board.3 6.2 –4.19 983 463 62 788 142 30 310 1. d High–quality hard coking coal. excluding ferrous waste and scrap and ferroalloys.4 –2.78 1 303 407 58 387 140 29 793 1. f BREE forecast. ABARES. 62% iron content basis.Table 4: Steel and steel-making raw materials outlook 2011 2012 f 2013 f % change World Contract prices b Iron ore c Metallurgical coal d US$/t US$/t 153 289 2010–11 136 221 2011–12 f 131 211 2012–13 f –3.7 10. s BREE estimate.5 12.6 13.7 3. c Fines contract. ‘Iron and steel’.86 527 164 –9. chapter 72.02 789 510 66 936 161 29 682 –14. International Iron and Steel Institute. BREE Australia–Japan average contract price assessment. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.7 % change Australia Production Iron and steel e s Iron ore Metallurgical coal Exports Iron and steel e s – value Iron ore – value Metallurgical coal – value Mt Mt Mt 7.

In 2012. an increase of 6 per cent relative to 2011. The decrease in the gold price over the June quarter has been in response to a re-emergence of sovereign debt issues in the euro zone which has seen a flight of capital into the US and a strengthening of the US dollar. This increase is driven largely by China. where income growth has fuelled significant demand for gold jewellery. the price of gold averaged US$1690 an ounce. Figure 1: 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 2012 US$/oz Gold prices 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sources: BREE. The modest growth in fabrication demand reflects high gold prices that are expected to dampen consumption growth in many markets. LMBA. the price of gold is forecast to average US$1660 an ounce. In particular. the gold price has fallen from US$1670 an ounce in early April to US$1550 an ounce in late May. This in turn has led to a decline in the US dollar denominated price of gold. In 2012. coins and other industrial uses. in the June quarter. Strong supply and demand fundamentals are expected to support the price of gold in 2012. Fabrication demand to be supported by China Fabrication demand comprises gold used in jewellery. medals. However. particularly from the official sector. electronics. very close to the average price in the December quarter 2011. fabrication demand for gold is expected to increase by 2 per cent to 2856 tonnes. gold fabrication demand is forecast to increase by 2 per cent relative to 2011 to total 2808 tonnes. The increase in the gold price in 2013 reflects strong demand. In 2013. dental applications.Gold Adam Bialowas Prices In the March quarter of 2012. official sector purchases represent a relatively price independent source of demand that will underpin the price of gold in 2012. 34 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . reflecting expectations of a more stable gold price. Gold prices in 2013 are forecast to increase by an additional 3 per cent to US$1710 a tonne (see Figure 1).

relative to 2010–11. as uncertainty remains in financial and asset markets. Australia’s gold exports consist of refined gold from domestic mine production and imports of gold dore (impure gold) and scrap gold. Global gold mine production is forecast to increase in 2013 by a further 2 per cent to 2977 tonnes. The recent variability of the US dollar relative to some national currencies and concerns over the euro has led to increased interest in gold as a means of diversifying central bank asset holdings. despite a forecast price increase in 2013.Official sector purchases to continue In 2012. the quantity of gold sourced from scrap is expected to decline by a further 6 per cent to 1450 tonnes. The levels of official sector purchases are due to the exposure of many central banks to foreign exchange risks. official sector purchases of gold are expected to remain robust at 425 tonnes. The fall in scrap supply reflects consumers’ willingness to hold gold in the absence of better alternative investments. Australia’s gold production to increase strongly Australia’s gold mine production in 2011–12 is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent relative to 2010–11 to total 261 tonnes. The decrease in production is due to a number of mines taking advantage of high gold prices to target lower ore grades that would otherwise have been uneconomic to extract. Gold production in Turkey is also expected to increase due to the start up of Eldorado Gold’s Efemçukuru and Alacer Gold’s copper operations. to total 331 tonnes. the volume of Australia’s gold exports is forecast to increase by 10 per cent. relative to 2011. Other mines starting up in 2012–13 include Millennium Minerals’ Nullagine and Crocodile Gold’s Cosmo Deeps. In 2013 the official sector is expected to remain a net purchaser of gold at a level of 400 tonnes. Supply to increase modestly World gold mine production in 2012 is forecast to increase by 3 per cent. Australia’s gold mine production in 2012–13 is expected to increase by 8 per cent relative to 2010–11 to total 283 tonnes. It also reflects the decreased availability of scrap as stock levels have been run down significantly over the past four years following successive increases in gold prices. Strong growth is expected to come from the Russian Federation as a result of Polyus Gold’s Verninskoye and Natalka operations. which are shipped to Australia and then refined into gold bullion and re–exported. In 2011–12. Similarly. Latin America will become an increasingly important gold producing region with new mines starting up such as Newgold’s Cerro Negro operation in Argentina and Barrick’s Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic. Production is expected to increase in Canada as a result of new developments such as New Gold’s New Afton project and AuRico’s Young-Davidson operation. to 2907 tonnes. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 35 . The largest contribution to this increase is expected to come from Newcrest’s Cadia East operation with an increase in capacity of 8 tonnes a year. Reduced availability to see scrap supply decline In 2012 the supply of scrap is forecast to decrease by 7 per cent to 1550 tonnes. similar to levels in 2011.

2 2.6 billion (see Figure 2). This reflects a combination of high gold prices and increased export volumes. 36 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Australian Bureau of Statistics.0 0.0 – 5.7 2. Sources: BREE.The increase in exports is expected to be supported by a forecast increased availability of scrap and gold dore from international sources as a result of continued high prices for gold.7 billion.1 26.3 – 2. Table 1: Gold outlook 2011 2012 f 2 808 2 907 380 272 240 217 195 1 550 (1 633) 425 (1 214) ( 10) 1 663 2011–12 f 261 331 15 558 1 624 2013 f 2 856 2 977 390 297 247 222 190 1 450 (1 551) 400 (1 161) ( 10) 1 713 2012–13 f 283 361 19 722 1 698 % change 1.6 – 6. ABARES.9 – 4. Accordingly. London Bullion Market Association.4 2. In 2012–13. ABS. the value of Australia’s gold exports is forecast to rise by 20 per cent in 2011–12 to $15. Gold Fields Mineral Services. The value of Australia’s gold exports is forecast to increase by 27 per cent to $19.6 9. increases in exports of both domestically produced gold and re-exported scrap are forecast to result in export volumes rising by 9 per cent to 361 tonnes.0 % change 8.4 9. Note: Net purchasing and dehedging shown in brackets. f BREE forecast.0 3.8 4.5 World Fabrication consumption Mine production – China – Australia – United States – Russian Federation – South Africa Scrap sales Net stock sales – official sector – private sector – producer hedging Price b t t t t t t t t t t t t US$/oz 2 759 2 818 371 259 233 212 198 1 661 (1 720) 455 (1 271) 6 1 569 2010–11 Australia Mine production Exports – value Price t t A$m A$/oz 265 301 13 016 1 389 b London Bullion Market Association AM price.9 2. Figure 2: 500 400 300 200 100 tonnes 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 volume 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 value (right axis) Australia’s gold exports 25 20 15 10 5 2011-12 A$b Sources: BREE.5 – 5.

The uncertainty over potential impacts from Europe's sovereign debt crisis has resulted in lower consumer and business confidence. This in turn will lead to a slowing of economic growth and manufacturing activity resulting in a slowing of demand for metals. In China. Europe. 2011 vs 2012 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 kt Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 aluminium US copper China nickel EU zinc Sources: BREE. ILZSG. is expected to result in a slowing in manufacturing activity. uncertainty over the economic outlook is expected to result in weaker metals consumption growth in China and the US and the continued contraction of consumption in Europe. WBMS. Figure 1: March quarter consumption of base metals. INSG. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 37 . copper and nickel increased across most large consuming regions. it remained robust and supportive of increased metals consumption. Importantly for the US economy. reduced economic activity in one of its major trading partners.Metals overview Adam Bialowas Metals consumption In the March quarter 2012. relative to the corresponding period in 2011 (see Figure 1). These developments have been reflected in price movements over the past quarter (see Figure 2). Many European economies are now in recession. with the exception of nickel. In Europe. which is expected to result in lower demand for metal-intensive products. While China's economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2012. housing construction has started to pick up which is a large consumer of copper and aluminium. Also supporting China's metal consumption was the restocking of depleted inventories. The increase in consumption was largely underpinned increasing consumption in China and the US. The growth in US metals consumption was underpinned by improvements in economic activity and industrial production. relative to the corresponding quarter in 2011. Europe's consumption of metals in the first quarter of 2012 was generally lower. weak economic growth across the region has resulted in lower consumption of most metals in the March quarter of 2012. In the June quarter 2012. All metals prices have fallen over the course of the quarter with the largest decreases being for copper (16 per cent) and nickel (13 per cent). global consumption of aluminium.

If the economic conditions around the world worsen. particularly for coal and gas. particularly in Europe. Additionally. Consumption growth in 2013 may start to increase associated with assumed stronger economic growth. In the US. Related to the economic outlook are movements of the US dollar. before increasing modestly in 2013. If prices continue to fall. This would result in an appreciation of the value of the US dollar against other currencies. Metals prices In 2012. In China the implementation of a stimulus package would be supportive of increased metals consumption. Over the second half of 2012 and in 2013. 38 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . The extent to which metals prices fall in 2012. most metals prices are forecast to decrease relative to 2011. which in turn would reduce the purchasing power of non US denominated currencies place further downward pressures on commodity prices. high prices for many base metals in the preceding few years provided incentives for producers to mine progressively lower grade ores and/or deposits that are technically more difficult to mine.Figure 2: Index of daily base metal prices 120 110 100 90 Index 2-Jan =100 2-Jan 22-Jan aluminium 11-Feb 2-Mar copper 22-Mar 11-Apr nickel 1-May 21-May zinc Sources: BREE. labour and other inputs. low energy prices. the higher extraction and refining costs will cause a number of mines will become unprofitable and will be shut down. LME. metals prices would likely continue to fall. relative to 2011 is linked to two factors. Economic uncertainty could lead to a flight of capital to US dollar denominated safe haven or quality investments. which could limit price decreases. This in turn will lead to a reduction in supply which will provide some support for commodity prices. Firstly. could be supportive of increased manufacturing activity. metals price decreases will reflect market expectations for future consumption. which in turn would support metals demand. metals consumption growth is expected to be subdued relative to growth rates in 2011 and 2010. Capital and operating costs have been impacted by increases in the costs of plant and machinery. The second factor is the extent which metals production costs have increased over the past decade.

prices for most metals are forecast to increase as economic growth and consumption increase and under the assumption that the uncertainty that currently surrounds the economic outlook starts to ease (see Figure 3). Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 39 . Figure 3: Index of quarterly base metal prices 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 index Mar 08 = 100 2008 2009 aluminium 2010 copper 2011 2012 nickel 2013 zinc Sources: BREE. LME.In 2013.

placing downward pressure on prices. 40 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .Copper Adam Bialowas Prices to decline in 2012 and 2013 In the March quarter of 2012 the price of copper averaged $US8300 a tonne. Figure 1: 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 2012 US$/t 2003 2005 2007 stocks (right axis) 2009 price 2011 2013 Copper prices and stocks 5 4 3 2 1 weeks of consumption Sources: BREE. This represented an 11 per cent increase compared to the December quarter 2011 but a 14 per cent fall when compared to the March quarter 2011. WBMS. Copper prices in 2013 are forecast to decrease by a further 3 per cent to $US7608 a tonne. In the June quarter 2012 the copper price declined from US$8580 a tonne in early April to US$7520 a tonne in late-May. copper prices are forecast to average $US7860 a tonne. The weakening of market sentiment has occurred because of recent weaker Chinese economic data and uncertainty over the outlook for a number of large European economies. a decrease of 11 per cent relative to 2011 (see Figure 1). LME. Growth in world refined copper production is expected to outpace growth in consumption in 2013. For 2012 as a whole. The decrease in prices over the June quarter and compared with 2011 is due to weaker market sentiment towards the outlook for global copper consumption.

5 million tonnes. increasing production by 8 per cent to 5. The strongest growth in consumption is forecast to occur in China (up 8 per cent to 9.3 million tonnes. Other countries where copper consumption is forecast to grow include: the US (up 4 per cent to 1. Mine production to grow strongly in 2013 In 2012 world copper production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent relative to 2011 to 16. In 2013 world refined copper consumption is forecast to increase by a further 5 per cent.4 million tonnes. World copper mine production in 2013 is expected to increase a further 9 per cent to 18 million tonnes. Increased production is expected to occur mainly in China and Africa. Refined production to follow growth in mine production In 2012 world refined production is forecast to increase by only 2 per cent to 20. relative to 2011. particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia. many OECD countries such as Germany and Italy are expected to register stagnant or decreases in consumption in 2012. A large proportion of this increase is expected to occur in China where copper consumption is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2012. as a result of improved concentrate availability. By contrast. In Chile. both of which are located in Zambia.6 million tonnes. to 21.5 million tonnes).8 million tonnes). In 2013. Increases in world refined copper production are expected to continue to be constrained by a shortage of concentrates.5 million tonnes.5 million tonnes. Australia’s copper production in 2013 is forecast to increase by 16 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes).2 million tonnes. Antofagasta’s Esperanza mine (annual capacity of 210 000 tonnes) is continuing to ramp up towards full production while in Peru Chinalco’s Tormocho mine (200 000 tonnes) is expected to commence production in 2013. rather than a lack of refining capacity. to total 20.Consumption to increase steadily World consumption of refined copper in 2012 is forecast to increase by 4 per cent.2 million tonnes supported by an expansion of the Cadia East mine and the start up of the Nullagine and DeGrussa mines. to 8. Growth is expected to come from Africa. refined copper production is expected to grow by 6 per cent to 21. China is forecast to remain the world’s largest producer of refined copper. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 41 . with growth occurring in Chile (up 4 per cent to 6 million tonnes) and Peru (up 7 per cent to 1. both of which have new mines which employ the solvent-extraction electro-winning (SX-EW) mining technique. underpinned by new operations such as First Quantum Minerals’ Kansanshi operation (annual capacity of 400 000 tonnes) and a continued ramp up to full production at Vedanta Resource’s Konkola operation (200 000 tonnes). Africa’s copper production in 2012 is also forecast to increase. The increase in copper production assumes an easing of industrial and labour disputes in Latin America and Indonesia which adversely impacted copper production in 2011. the Russian Federation (up 4 per cent to 720 000 tonnes) and India (up 5 per cent to 438 000 tonnes). the Republic of Korea (up 6 per cent to 792 000 tonnes) and Brazil (up 4 per cent to 439 000 tonnes). supported by growth in other non-OECD economies such as Brazil (up 8 per cent to 475 000 tonnes). relative to 2011.

1 million tonnes. are forecast to increase by a further 10 per cent to 966 000 tonnes. These new operations will more than offset the effects of the closure of Kagara Mining’s operation (annual capacity of 20 000 tonnes) in early 2012. 42 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Assuming no unplanned refinery outages. The increase is expected to just offset a decline in the Australian dollar denominated price of copper. ABS. Figure 2: 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 kt 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 volume 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 value (right axis) Australia’s copper exports 12 10 8 6 4 2 2011-12 A$b Sources: BREE. Increased production will be supported by the start up of Hillgrove Resources’ Kanmantoo mine (annual capacity of 20 000 tonnes) and Kimberley Metals’ Mineral Hill operation (10 000 tonnes). resulting in a 7 per cent increase in the value of Australian copper exports to $9 billion. the metallic content of Australia’s copper exports is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2011–12 to 880 000 tonnes.Australia’s copper production and exports to increase In 2011–12. with the value of Australian copper exports remaining relatively unchanged at $8. The increase is expected to more than offset a decline in the Australian dollar denominated price of copper. A large proportion of this increase is expected to come from production at Newcrest’s expanded Cadia East operation (additional annual capacity of 80 000 tonnes) as well as the start up of Sandfire Resources’ DeGrussa operation (annual capacity of 70 000 tonnes). Consistent with increased mine production.4 billion (see Figure 2). in metallic content terms. Australia’s refined copper production in 2012-13 is expected to increase 4 per cent to relative to 2011–12 to 504 000 tonnes. Australia’s copper mine production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent. In 2012–13 exports of Australian copper. to 971 000 tonnes. relative to 2010–11. Australian copper mine production in 2012–13 is forecast to increase by 15 per cent to 1.

2 10. Rep. Australian Bureau of Statistics.5 16. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 43 .0 13.2 8.2 % change 14.4 0.6 – 5.1 2012–13 f 1 113 504 % change 9.0 3.6 8 852 401.2 6. of – Russian Federation Closing stocks – weeks consumption Price kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt US$/t USc/lb 16 242 5 263 1 267 1 235 1 138 959 784 19 791 19 472 7 915 1 756 1 251 1 007 747 676 985 2. International Copper Study Group.5 2011–12 f 971 484 2013 f 18 039 5 959 1 463 1 496 1 369 1 184 1 010 21 490 21 366 9 249 1 884 1 260 1 000 822 720 1 064 2.1 3.2 – 3.1 5.6 7 608 345.1 Mine production – Chile – China – Peru – United States – Australia – Zambia Refined production Consumption – China – United States – Germany – Japan – Korea.3 3.6 7.4 19. f BREE forecast.8 4. Sources: BREE.4 b Quantities refer to gross weight of all ores and concentrates.3 8.3 0. ABARES.5 2010–11 Australia Mine output Refined output Exports – ores and concentrates b – refined – total value kt kt 952 485 kt kt A$m 1 750 375 8 422 1 832 386 8 418 2 227 365 9 043 21. World Bureau of Metal Statistics.4 7.4 7 860 365.3 – 3.6 4.9 7.Table 1: World Copper outlook 2011 2012 f 16 533 5 752 1 356 1 396 1 239 1 017 847 20 249 20 294 8 540 1 824 1 255 1 000 792 692 940 2.

1 million tonnes. relative to 2012. or 9.4 weeks of consumption (see Figure 1). to average around US$2100 a tonne. 44 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . or around 9 weeks of consumption. underpinned by stronger aluminium consumption. to reach around 8. The growth in aluminium demand is expected to be faster than the increase in production and is expected to result in a decrease in stocks to 8. LME. aluminium prices are forecast to decline by 12 per cent relative to 2011. to average around US$2300 a tonne. WBMS.Aluminium George Stanwix Aluminium prices to recover Falling world aluminium demand growth has largely contributed to the downward movement in aluminium prices in the first half of 2012. Further price declines are expected to be limited by production curtailments and rising input costs in key producing regions. In 2013. Figure 1: 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 2012 US$/t Aluminium prices and stocks 12 10 8 6 4 2 weeks of consumption 2003 2005 2007 2009 prices 2011 2013 stocks (right axis) Sources: BREE.3 million tonnes at the end of 2013. For 2012 as a whole. by 9 per cent. Aluminium stocks in 2012 are forecast to increase by 13 per cent. aluminium prices are forecast to increase. Aluminium prices averaged around US$2100 a tonne in the first half of 2012. compared with 2011. a 17 per cent decrease on the corresponding period in 2011.

Aluminium consumption growth to strengthen in 2013 In 2012. to around 4. cost pressures and power availability at a number of smelters in the European Union. In the Russian Federation. and in the Middle East. relative to 2011. aluminium production is expected to decrease by 13 per cent. relative to 2011. aluminium production is forecast to increase by 24 per cent. In the US. to around 1 million tonnes in 2013. China’s aluminium consumption is forecast to increase by 9 per cent. in response to assumed weaker economic growth across most major consuming regions. compared with 2011. relative to 2012.8 million tonnes in 2012. compared with 2012. relative to 2012. world aluminium production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent.6 million tonnes in 2012. to total 48 million tonnes.6 million tonnes in 2012. to total 400 000 tonnes. compared with 2012. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 45 .9 million tonnes in 2013. to around 2.1 million tonnes in 2013. Growth in aluminium consumption is expected to be supported by stronger aluminium demand in China and the US. The production curtailments are in response to declining prices. relative to 2012. India. relative to 2011. Stronger aluminium production growth expected in 2013 In 2012. world aluminium consumption growth is expected to be relatively weak. In Canada. to total 600 000 tonnes in 2013. to around 4 million tonnes. aluminium consumption is forecast to increase by 13 per cent. world aluminium consumption is forecast to increase by 7 per cent. Production of aluminium in Saudi Arabia is forecast to rise by 62 per cent. aluminium production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent. relative to 2011. In 2012. In 2013. In Qatar. to total 44. World aluminium consumption is forecast to increase by 5 per cent. Iceland. Canada and Australia. The relatively weak growth is a result of production curtailments in late 2011 and early 2012. relative to 2011. Aluminium production in Iceland is forecast to increase by 9 per cent. In 2013. to total 46 million tonnes. growth in aluminium production is expected to be supported by smelter restarts and the commissioning of new capacity in the Russian Federation. compared with 2012. Aluminium production in China is expected to increase by 4 per cent. to around 4. to total 21 million tonnes in 2013. Growth in aluminium production in the Middle East is expected to be supported by increased production capacity in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. to around 18. aluminium production in the Russian Federation is expected to increase by 1 per cent. relative to 2012.

ABS. to around $3. In 2012–13.Australia’s production and export earnings to weaken Australia’s aluminium production in 2011–12 is estimated to remain relatively unchanged.71 million tonnes. to total 1. On the basis of reported curtailments of production at a number of smelters.4 billion in 2012–13. to 1.5 6 1 4 0.94 million tonnes. Australia’s export earnings from aluminium are estimated to decrease by 8 per cent. relative to 2011–12.56 million tonnes (see Figure 2). Australian aluminium production in 2012–13 is forecast to decline by 9 per cent.5 2 2011−12 A$b 2002-03 2004-05 volume 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 value (right axis) Mt Source: BREE. Lower aluminium output and declining prices are expected to have a negative impact on the value of aluminium exports. compared to 2010–11. relative to 2011–12. Lower production of aluminium is expected to lead to a reduction in the volume of exports. relative to 2010–11. Figure 2: 2 Australia’s aluminium exports 8 1. and by a further 12 per cent. In 2011–12. to around 1. 46 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .78 million tonnes. relative to 2010–11. to total 1. Australia’s aluminium exports are forecast to decline by 9 per cent.8 billion in 2011–12. the volume of aluminium exports is forecast to increase moderately by 2 per cent. relative to 2011–12. to $3.

Alumina production in Australia in 2011–12 is forecast to increase by 4 per cent. relative to 2010–11. Australian export earnings The most significant use for alumina is in the production of aluminium metal. In 2012–13. For 2012 as a whole.9 million tonnes.5 billion. on average. to total $5.9 million tonnes. relative to 2010–11. relative to 2012. the spot price of alumina is forecast to decrease by 15 per cent. In 2011–12 and 2012–13. Figure 3: 20 Australia’s alumina exports 8 15 6 10 4 5 2 2011-12 A$b 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 volume 2008-09 value (right axis) 2010-11 2012-13 Mt Sources: BREE. Accordingly. to around US$320 a tonne. in line with projected increases in aluminium production. and by a further 16 per cent in 2012–13 to total 22. Alumina prices are forecast to be moderately higher. underpinned by higher prices and export volumes.Alumina Alumina prices to rise in 2013 In the first six months of 2012 the spot price of alumina averaged around US$330 a tonne. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 47 . the majority of the forecast increase in alumina production is expected to be exported. a 17 per cent decrease on the corresponding period in 2011. The decrease in the alumina spot price reflects lower alumina demand associated with relatively weaker growth in aluminium production in the first half of 2012.4 million tonnes (see Figure 3). ABS. to total 19.1 billion. to $7.8 million tonnes. In 2012–13. With higher export volumes projected in 2011–12. relative to 2011. relative to 2011–12. the volume of alumina exports is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to around 16. Australia’s alumina exports are forecast to rise by a further 15 per cent to 19. Australia’s alumina production is forecast to increase with the completion of expansions at the Yarwun and Worsley refineries. in 2011–12. As a result of production curtailments at Australian aluminium smelters. export earnings for Australia’s alumina are forecast to increase by 30 per cent. in 2013. the value of Australia’s alumina exports is forecast to increase by 6 per cent. Alumina prices in 2013 are forecast to increase by 4 per cent. to average US$330 a tonne.

7 – 12. ABARES.6 14.3 8.4 7.4 5. World Bureau of Metal Statistics.5 – 4.7 – 8.Table 1: Aluminium outlook 2011 2012 f 45 554 1 855 2 610 18 826 4 025 2 257 44 601 19 357 1 914 1 906 1 900 4 309 8 051 9.7 2 402 109 374 2010–11 Australia Production Bauxite Alumina Aluminium Exports Alumina – value Aluminium – value Mt kt kt kt A$m kt A$m 69 19 041 1 938 16 227 5 218 1 686 4 178 71 19 780 1 944 16 942 5 507 1 713 3 839 74 22 880 1 776 19 416 7 144 1 563 3 374 4.8 4.5 18.5 2.7 – 8.3 – 8.9 7.0 % change World aluminium Production – Australia – Canada – China – Russian Federation – United States Consumption – China – Germany – India – Japan – United States Closing stocks b – weeks consumption Price c World alumina Spot price kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt US$/t USc/lb US$/t 44 624 1 945 2 983 18 062 3 992 1 983 42 386 17 629 2 103 1 611 1 946 4 060 7 098 8.6 29. c LME cash prices for primary aluminium.1 15. f BREE forecast.2 2. 48 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .1 8. London Metal Exchange.0 2 308 105 331 2012–13 f % change 5.1 b Producer and LME stocks.8 8.9 13.9 11.0 1. Sources: BREE.4 2 122 96 318 2011–12 f 2013 f 47 981 1 698 2 662 19 131 4 125 2 672 47 781 21 082 2 133 2 018 2 050 4 878 8 252 9.6 2.

The slight increase in prices to US$19 600 a tonne was a reflection of stronger economic data. For 2012 as a whole. As a result. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 49 . compared with the average LME price in December 2011. the nickel price has been declining steadily in line with uncertainty associated with the outlook for world economic growth. in particular from the US.Nickel Tom Shael Prices and stocks Nickel prices were 7 per cent higher in the March quarter of 2012. INSG. nickel prices are forecast to average around US$17 500 a tonne. A major factor behind this increase is forecast higher growth in nickel consumption relative to refined production. the nickel price is estimated to have averaged around US$16 900 a tonne. since mid-February. However. Prices in 2013 are forecast to average higher than in 2012 at around US$19 400 a tonne.5 weeks of consumption (see Figure 1). Figure 1: 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 2012 US$/t 2003 2005 2007 stocks (right axis) 2009 price 2011 2013 Annual nickel prices and stocks 10 8 6 4 2 weeks of consumption Sources: BREE. in the June quarter 2012. LME. Contributing to this decline in prices is a forecast 19 per cent yearon-year increase in stocks to 205 000 tonnes or 6.

relative to 2011. relative to 2011. Higher world consumption in 2013 is also expected to be supported by an increase in consumption in the European Union (up 8 per cent to 409 000 tonnes) in line with an assumed rebound in economic growth.65 million tonnes. to total 1. In 2013 consumption is forecast to grow by 5 per cent. The expected restart of Lundin Mining’s Aguablanca mine in Spain in late 2012 will also contribute to higher world mine production in 2013.73 million tonnes.04 million tonnes. Operations at the Aguablanca mine were suspended in December 2010 after heavy rains caused a mine entry ramp to collapse. This figure will be driven by the continued expansion to capacity of recently commissioned projects in Australia (up 4 per cent from 2011 to 224 000 tonnes) and Finland (up 33 per cent to 48 000 tonnes). Supporting higher world consumption will be strong growth in China of 6 per cent. Mine production In 2012 world nickel mine production is forecast to increase to 1. Again this will be underpinned by growth in China (up 4 per cent from 2012 to 750 000 tonnes) and the Republic of Korea (up 8 per cent to 86 000 tonnes). compared with 2012. to total 720 000 tonnes. to 140 000 tonnes. Mine production in 2013 will be supported by the start-up of Sherritt International’s joint venture Ambatovy mine in Madagascar (annual capacity of 60 000 tonnes) and Xstrata’s Koniambo mine (60 000 tonnes) in New Caledonia. to 2. Nickel mine production in 2013 is forecast to increase by 3 per cent. 4 per cent higher than the total produced in 2011. This figure is lower than previously forecast due to an accident at the sulphuric acid plant of Vale’s VNC operation in early May 2012. 50 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Growth in the US (up 6 per cent from 2011 to 130 000 tonnes) and the Republic of Korea (up 8 per cent from 2011 to 80 000 tonnes) will also contribute to higher world consumption.97 million tonnes. Production in New Caledonia is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2012.Consumption In 2012 consumption of refined nickel is forecast to increase by 5 per cent. to total 1.

after low production in early 2011 due to a shortage of nitrogen gas. A 28 000 tonne increase in production in Australia (up 17 per cent) will be the most significant contribution to world growth in refined nickel production in 2012.68 million tonnes. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 51 . Australia’s refined nickel production is forecast to increase by a further 6 per cent in 2012–13 to 128 000 tonnes. Production in 2013 is forecast to be supported by the increase in mine production from new facilities in Madagascar and New Caledonia that have refineries on site. Growth in China’s nickel pig iron production is expected to slow in line with assumed lower economic growth and increased availability of relatively cheap refined nickel on the international market. respectively. Australia Nickel mine production in Australia in 2011–12 is forecast to total 226 000 tonnes. This increase is largely a result of the redevelopment and restart of the Ravensthorpe mine (annual capacity of 39 000 tonnes) by First Quantum Minerals in late 2011. relative to 2012. The increase in Australia’s production will largely be a result of higher production of class I nickel at BHP Billiton’s Nickel West Kwinana refinery. to total 258 000 tonnes in 2012–13 (see Figure 2). In 2012–13 mine production is forecast to decline marginally relative to 2011–12 to 221 000 tonnes as a result of BHP Billiton’s plan to decrease mine production at its Nickel West operation in Western Australia from early 2012. 5 per cent higher than the total produced in 2011. The decline is due to a weakening of the Australian dollar price. as a higher Australian dollar price will facilitate increased earnings from larger export volumes. a key input. Refined nickel production in 2011–12 is forecast to total around 121 000 tonnes following a sharp decline in production in 2010–11. to 1. Export volumes of nickel from Australia are forecast to increase in 2011–12 and 2012–13 in line with higher mine and refined production. 16 per cent higher than in 2010–11. In 2012–13 export earnings are forecast to increase by 6 per cent to $4. Export volumes are forecast to increase by 14 per cent and 8 per cent year-on-year in 2011–12 and 2012–13.Refined production Refined nickel production in 2012 is forecast to total 1. Export earnings from nickel in 2011–12 are forecast to decline by 5 per cent to $3. In 2013 world refined production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent.75 million tonnes. The lower production in 2010–11 was a result of a temporary production substitution away from refined class I nickel to intermediate nickel at BHP Billiton’s Nickel West operations induced by a shortage of a key input to production. which will more than offset higher export volumes.9 billion.1 billion.

ABS.Figure 2: 300 250 200 150 100 kt Australia’s nickel exports 10 8 6 4 2 2011-12 A$b 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 volume 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 value (right axis) Sources: BREE. 52 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .

2 0.0 0.5 2.7 22 854 1 037 2010–11 Australia Production – mine bs – refined – intermediate Exports cs – value kt kt kt kt A$m 195 101 60 210 4 096 226 121 58 240 3 902 221 128 80 258 4 138 – 2.9 10.3 2.5 5. intermediate products and nickel metal. Sources: BREE. of – United States Closing stocks – weeks consumption Price kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt US$/t USc/lb 1 903 215 95 220 294 245 270 1 597 110 142 411 157 266 1 569 680 365 35 152 74 123 172 5.3 6.2 0.7 10.6 19 375 879 2012–13 f % change 3. ABARES. s BREE estimate.5 17 506 794 2011–12 f 2013 f 2 038 224 120 230 290 245 280 1 747 127 150 420 172 274 1 732 750 409 42 160 86 133 219 6.8 – 1.4 4. c Includes metal content of ores and concentrates.Table 1: World Nickel outlook 2011 2012 f 1 975 224 115 225 290 245 275 1 683 129 150 410 165 270 1 650 720 379 38 155 80 130 205 6. World Bureau of Metal Statistics.9 7.0 4.2 7.2 5. London Metal Exchange.8 37. Rep. Australian Bureau of Statistics. International Nickel Study Group.8 1.2 1.5 10.0 4.8 3.0 1.5 3. f BREE forecast.7 % change Mine Production – Australia – Brazil – Canada – Indonesia – Philippines – Russian Federation Refined Production – Australia – Canada – China – Japan – Russian Federation Consumption – China – European Union 27 – India – Japan – Korea.6 0.5 6.2 7.0 2. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 53 .0 b Nickel content of domestic mine production.

The decrease in price reflects weak growth in zinc consumption as a result of assumed slowing of economic growth in key developed and emerging economies. to US$2060 a tonne as growth in world zinc consumption increases and expansion in global zinc production eases. LME. Figure 1: 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 2012 US$/t 2003 2005 2007 price 2009 stocks (right axis) 2011 2013 Zinc prices and stocks 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 weeks of consumption Sources: BREE. For 2012 as a whole. The fall in price is similar to changes in other base metals prices and is attributed to concerns about the future economic prospects in the European Union (EU). and to a lesser extent in China. In 2013. ILZSG. zinc prices are forecast to average US$1980 a tonne. a decrease of 4 per cent compared with the March quarter 2012. the zinc price is estimated to average around US$1940 a tonne. zinc prices are forecast to increase by 4 per cent. the zinc prices averaged US$2020 a tonne. 54 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Zinc production is also forecast to increase at a faster rate than consumption as new mines commence production. For the quarter as a whole. a decrease of 10 per cent compared with 2011. the price of zinc has fallen a further 6 per cent to be US$1850 a tonne in early June. 6 per cent lower than in the December quarter 2011.Zinc Alan Copeland and Adam Bialowas Prices In the March quarter of 2012. relative to 2012. During the June quarter 2012.

The majority of this increase is expected to come from China.6 million tonnes.2 million tonnes) and India (8 per cent to 700 000 tonnes).5 million tonnes. Mine Production Global zinc mine production in 2012 is expected to increase by 2 per cent to total 13. will account for the largest proportion of this increase with its consumption in 2012 forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 5.Consumption World zinc consumption in 2012 is forecast to increase 3 per cent relative to 2011. In 2012. Amongst OECD nations. world zinc mine production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent relative to 2012.3 million tonnes. Refined Production Refined zinc production in 2012 is expected to increase by 2 per cent relative to 2011 to total 13. China. Offsetting this trend are new mines scheduled to commence operations in 2013. of Xstrata. Additionally. Teck and Mitsubishi’s joint venture Antamina mine in Peru (capacity of 300 000 tonnes a year) and Hindustan Zinc’s Rampura Agucha expansion in India (additional annual capacity of 100 000 tonnes) both of which were commissioned during 2011. relative to 2012.1 million tonnes. Zinc consumption in the European Union is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 2. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 55 . to total 13. in 2011.3 million tonnes. In 2013 world refined zinc production is expected to increase an additional 4 per cent to 13. Higher zinc production in 2012 reflects the start up. which is expected to commission an additional 400 000 tonnes of refining capacity in 2012. In 2013 world zinc production is forecast to increase by a further 4 per cent. The projected increase in zinc consumption is a result of an assumed improvement in global economic growth in 2013 relative to 2012. such as MBC Corporation’s Ozernoye (390 000 tonnes)in Russia and TriAusMin’s Woodlawn project (150 00 tonnes) in Australia. Xstrata’s Brunswick mine (250 000 tonnes) in Canada is scheduled to cease production in 2013. Japan’s consumption of zinc is expected to increase by 7 per cent to total 540 000 tonnes. From 2013. In 2013. to reach 13. Growth in global zinc consumption in 2013 is also expected to be supported by robust increases in demand in both China (7 per cent to 6. Japan is expected to register the largest growth in zinc consumption as a result of rebuilding activities following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami.7 million tonnes. For example. which currently comprises over 40 per cent of global zinc demand.8 million tonnes. world zinc mine production is expected to be affected by major mine closures.7 million tonnes. BHP Billiton. to total 13. a number of other mines are approaching the end of their productive lives and are expected to have lower production in 2013.

56 million tonnes. compared with 2010–11. 56 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .Australian zinc production to grow In 2011–12. as a result of lower forecast world zinc prices and an assumed strong Australian dollar. to total 1. relative to 2010–11 to total 1. this is expected to result in a 3 per cent increase in Australian export earnings from zinc to about $2. In 2012–13 Australian production of refined zinc will increase by 3 per cent to 535 000 tonnes and will approach the current total refining capacity of about 540 000 tonnes.61 million tonnes. and also the expected commencement of production at CBH Resources’ Rasp mine. Nevertheless. Under the assumption of a higher zinc price in 2012–13.3 billion. The scheduled expansion of production at Xstrata’s George Fisher Mine and Perilya’s Potosi mine.57 million tonnes. export earnings are expected to decrease by 5 per cent in 2011–12 to $2. The increase in production is underpinned by the expansion of production at Xstrata’s Black Star Open Cut Deeps mine (annual capacity of 120 000 tonnes a year) and commencement of production at Xstrata’s Handle Bar Hill mine (88 000 tonnes). will contribute around 190 000 tonnes additional capacity to support higher production levels. The expansion of production at Bass Metal’s Hellyer mine (annual capacity of 55 000 tonnes) that was commissioned during 2010–11 will also support increased production. ABS. Australian production of refined zinc in 2011–12 is expected to grow by 4 per cent to 521 000 tonnes. export volumes of both zinc ores and concentrates and refined zinc are forecast to increase by 4 per cent. Figure 2: 2000 1600 1200 800 400 kt 2002-03 2006-07 volume 2010-11 value (right axis) Australia’s zinc exports 5 4 3 2 1 2011-12 A$b Sources: BREE. Australian export volumes and values to increase In 2011–12. Australia's zinc mine production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent. The higher export volumes are a result of increased domestic production. The volume of Australian zinc exports is expected to increase by a further 1 per cent in 2012–13 to total 1.55 million tonnes. Australian zinc mine production is forecast to increase by a further 5 per cent in 2012–13 to total 1.3 billion.

2 2 063 94 2012–13 f 1 637 535 2 407 462 1 591 2 264 % change 2. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 57 .0 6.7 4. Sources: BREE.6 2 195 100 2010–11 1 479 499 2 317 410 1 494 2 373 US$/t USc/lb Australia Mine output Refined output Exports – ores and concentrates b – refined – total metallic content – total value kt kt kt kt kt A$m b Quantities refer to gross weight of all ores and concentrates.4 1.8 World Production – mine Production – refined Consumption Closing stocks – weeks consumption Price kt kt kt kt 12 960 13 084 12 709 1 867 7. International Lead and Zinc Study group.1 1 978 90 2011–12 f 1 574 521 2 278 443 1 510 2 161 2013 f 13 543 13 772 13 641 2 161 8. Australian Bureau of Statistics.0 3. ABARES. f BREE forecast.3 % change 4.3 4.7 4.3 5.Table 1: Zinc outlook table 2011 2012 f 13 281 13 281 13 117 2 031 8.2 4.4 4.0 2.7 5.

58 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .

Resources and Energy Quarterly Reviews Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 59 .

Sep-09 May-10 60 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . what is unfolding in Europe in June 2012 potentially could have major important impacts in Australia and globally. It consists of 17 sovereign countries that have all agreed to share a common currency within a broader economic union of 27 countries. the European Central Bank (ECB). the rules by which it governs were ‘Made in Germany’ with their focus on price stability. Its * The views expressed in this review are those of the author alone and are not necessarily those of the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics nor the Department of Resources. Cost of borrowing begins to increase.to BBB+. 15 Sep 2009 18 Oct 2009 8 Dec 2009 4 Mar 2010 2 May 2009 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy. Greek and is by far the world’s largest currency union. a description about how we arrived at what increasingly looks like either the exit of Greece from the euro zone or a much more closely unified and different euro zone. Energy and Tourism. Fitch downgrades Greece from A. cap on civil servants’ pay.PIIGS. Greek government reveals black hole in account. The origin of the word is. Euro rules! The euro is unique in many ways. An optimal currency area is also compared to the euro zone and what this implies about the future of the euro. Within the euro zone countries monetary policy is set by one institution. a Trojan horse and an optimal currency area Quentin Grafton* The events of the past few weeks in Europe have focussed almost everyone’s attention on debts. Greece announces austerity plan . liquidity and financial contagion. While the ECB is a pan-European institution with an Italian President.increase in VAT. freeze on pensions. the European Union (EU). with budget deficit hitting 12% of GDP. tax on cigarettes and alcohol. Despite the small size of the Greek economy and the large geographical distance between Athens and Canberra. Eurozone finance ministers agree to rescue Greece with €110bn in loans over three years. Mario Draghi. ironically. A week later ministers announce a €500bn eurozone rescue fund. In this review.

There are also so-called convergence criteria that require states in the euro zone to not have annual budget deficits in excess of 3 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) and to ensure that the gross government debt to GDP ratio should not exceed 60 per cent of GDP. 2 per cent over the medium term. has a debt to GDP ratio of about 160 per cent. the convergence criteria have not been followed by a number of euro zone countries. This essentially transferred commercial bank losses. Government responses to the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008–09.5 billion bailout for Ireland May-10 Feb-11 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 61 . Unfortunately. The EFC has been agreed to by all but two members (the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic) of the EU.5 per cent of its GDP annually unless it has a GDP/ debt ratio significantly below 60 per cent and long-term financial sustainability risks are low. A consistent failure to meet the convergence criteria by some countries has ultimately led to the Treaty on Stability. but is subject to national legislative approval. until very recently. The convergence rules were designed to ensure fiscal prudence by all euro zone members and to avoid Germany. As a result of the GFC. in addition to the convergence criteria. Other EU rules. aimed at buying public and private debt. and in some cases very large losses as a proportion of GDP (such as in Ireland). bailing out profligate members. but close to.principal goal is to keep the inflation rate below. Italy has a ratio of about 120 per cent and even Germany has a ratio of about 80 per cent. National Bank of Greece announces it will go through with larger than expected capital raising Europe seals EUR 67. at least in theory. that had its origins in the US. It will come into force on 1 January 2013 provided that it has been ratified by at least 12 members of the euro zone. and other more prosperous countries. no real attempt to meet these criteria. raises women’s retirement age from 60 to 65. The EFC places strict limits on spending and borrowing by governments including penalties for countries that violate the rules and. Meeting gives birth to European Financial Stability Facility . some European countries assumed the debts of insolvent banks to maintain confidence in their financial systems. for example. Coordination and Governance in the European and Monetary Union. 10 May 2010 7 Jul 2010 7 Sep 2010 28 Nov 2010 EU finance chiefs agree to set up EUR 750 billion rescue mechanism. to national governments. Greece. Enforcement would be via a national ‘correction mechanism’ that would need to be formally enshrined in law within countries that approve the EFC and that would be triggered should there be a deviation from the agreed to fiscal rules. requires that the structural deficit of a country not exceed 0. commonly known as the European Fiscal Compact (EFC). Greek parliament passes pension reforms. In the case of Greece and Italy there was. within initial capital of EUR 440 billion. prevent the ECB from assuming the sovereign debts of euro zone members. has made it much more difficult to achieve the convergence criteria.

from 1 July 2012 there will be a permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) that will allow for a permanent bail-out mechanism that is intended to avoid shocks in one country affecting all euro zone members. euro zone members recognised the obvious and in October 2011 agreed to a 50 per cent writedown of Greek sovereign debt and an increase in the bail-out funds held under the European Financial Stability Fund to about 1 trillion euros. After much deliberation. Ireland and Greece. in particular. By the end of 2011 and early 2012 the long-term interest rate in Greece was over 20 per cent and the country was insolvent (Grafton 2011). European Commission says Greek budget deficit is worse than expected at 13.6% of GDP. EU set this bill as precondition for further aid. 25 Mar 2011 23 Apr 2011 13 Jun 2011 29 Jun 2011 The European Council adopts the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). S&P downgrades Greece to CCC– Greek parliament passes second austerity bill containing spending cuts and tax increases. As the interest spread—the difference between the interest Greece had to pay to its bondholders and that paid by Germany—increased it became increasingly difficult for Greece to stay solvent (see Figure 1). Mar-11 Jun-11 62 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .PIIGS By the end of 2009 investors who had purchased government bonds from euro zone countries began to demand an additional risk premium from the highly-indebted countries and. which will enter into force on 1 July 2013. Further. Figure 1: Yields for German and Greek 30-year bonds 30 25 20 15 10 5 yield (%) Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Germany Mar-09 Mar-10 Greece Mar-11 Mar-12 Source: Bloomberg.

The price for such help to the heavily indebted nations of the euro zone is their acceptance of fiscal austerity packages and economic reform to restore competiveness and promote productivity. The monetary expansion by the ECB coupled with a need to recapitalise commercial banks in the PIIGS encouraged these banks to buy the sovereign debt issued by their governments and that paid an interest rate much higher than the 1 per cent the commercial banks were obliged to pay to the ECB. While such reforms will eventually help economic growth. which threatens to bring down the EU banking sector. given the large negative economic shock. A modified version of the ESM was signed by euro area member states. The modified version will come into operation on 1 July 2012. a year earlier than orginally planned. These were long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) in which the ECB loaned about half a trillion euros to more than 500 banks for a three year period and at an interest rate of 1 per cent. in the event of sovereign debt default. Ireland. Further economic contraction and higher unemployment is expected as Greece implements its-agreed-to fiscal austerity as part of the conditions of its bailout. The euro zone fiscal initiatives were supplemented by ECB interventions that began at the very end of 2011. especially in Portugal. and to restore confidence in the European financial system. a banking crisis or an exit from the euro this would exacerbate the negative financial effects on the real economy in the affected country. ECB offers loans to bank to prevent second credit crunch. Until the Greek 6 May 2012 election there was both a democratic and fiscal deficit because the fiscal austerity programs agreed to on behalf of the Greeks was made by a Prime Minister who was not popularly elected to that position. Greece reaches deal with private creditors to reduce country’s debt. leaders agreed to force private investors to accept a 50% haircut on Greek bonds and increase bail-out funds held under the European Financial Stability Fund to about 1 trillion. Jul-11 Feb-12 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 63 . 27 Oct 2011 8 Nov 2011 28 Jan 2012 2 Feb 2012 EU leaders hold another crisis summit.In early 2012 a second bail-out was agreed to for Greece. But Germany insists in limiting loans and austerity cuts. LTROs have helped to greatly reduce bond yields on PIIGS sovereign debt. in the short run rapid fiscal consolidation can weaken growth and impose major costs on households. Italy. this has caused a great deal of hardship and angst. but have also ended up linking even more national solvency and the viability of the commercial banks. Greece and Spain (PIIGS). A Trojan horse Greece has experienced four years of recession such that its economy has shrunk by 15–20 per cent and its unemployment rate has doubled to about 20 per cent. The objective of this monetary intervention was to lower interest rates. Unsurprisingly. Thus. After 10 hours of talks.

or Greece’s departure from the euro zone. however. In addition to the adjustments costs a Grexit would impose on Greece (Cliffe 2012). Exporters to the EU would also suffer as demand for their products declined. significant government cuts are agreed on. The deal is expected to bring Greek debt down to 120% of GDP by 2020. in particular. The majority of Greek voters backed parties opposed to austerity plans. Optimal currency area Given the current state of the euro zone a good question to pose is. there was another election on 17 June in which the New Democracy Party won the most votes (about 30 per cent). European Fiscal Compact (EFC) was signed by all but two (UK and Czech Republic). Greek elections. in a famous paper on optimal currency areas (OCAs) published in 1961 (Mundell 1961). Robert Mundell. 9 Feb 2012 21 Feb 2012 2 Mar 2012 6 May 2012 After talks with EU and IMF inspectors. the smaller remaining members of the PIIGS and peripheral countries such as Cyprus. The New Democracy led coalition government wishes Greece to remain in the euro zone.The outcome of the Greek election on 6 May 2012 was that no single party or coalition of parties had a sufficient numbers of seats to form a viable government. In the worst case scenario. especially in terms of maintaining price stability and protecting against external shocks. His work suggested that a single currency for countries or regions could be economically advantageous. it could cause a possible run on European banks. EFC will come into force on Jan 2013. A loss of confidence and a reduction in consumer spending following a Grexit would considerably worsen the current euro zone recession. it would cause major spillovers in the EU as Greece owes about 300 billion euros to governments and institutions in the euro zone. would go beyond Europe and its financial sector. The negative spillovers. to help refinance loans. Should Greece fail to accept or fully implement the bailout conditions it would trigger a ‘Grexit’. As a consequence. but would like the austerity conditions to be softened. The runner-up in votes cast was Syriza (about 27 per cent) which strongly opposes the austerity conditions imposed on Greece as part of its bailout. why have a currency union? A framework to understand currency unions was developed by the Canadian economist and Nobel Laureate. Feb-12 May-12 64 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . especially as there is already a banking crisis in Spain. The major concern is that a Grexit could be the first step in a sequence of ‘falling dominoes’ that could result in the exit of other heavily indebted euro zone countries and. After lengthy talks eurozone countries agree to hand EUR 130bn. as would commercial banks and companies who use European financial markets as a funding source for their loans and investments. Unemployment rises to 21%.

For an optimal currency area to work in the long run there needs to be free movement of labour. Without independent sovereign monetary policy. but with a set of binding fiscal rules that limits budget deficits. Without such transfers the costs of currency union would likely outweigh the benefits for countries faced with economic shocks because without a flexible exchange rate the only way intra-competitiveness can be restored is by deflation and lower wages rather than by currency depreciation with a flexible exchange rate. Similarly.In a speech that Mundell gave in Israel in December 1997. the more profligate countries can benefit from the prudence of their more disciplined members by financing their deficits at a much lower cost than they would outside of a currency union. at least until 2009. capital mobility and flexible wages. it would be politically difficult for leaders of well-off countries to make such transfers. Interestingly. that was sorely lacking within some countries within the euro zone. but gave this as a remote possibility. Nevertheless. the New Democracy Party formed a coalition government that favours Greece remaining in the euro zone. Mundell observed back in his 1997 speech that ‘If Greece makes a real effort to put its economic house in order—which it has announced it will do—it could be accepted into the union (currency) as well. It is worth noting that one of the reasons Mundell provided for joining an OCA was to establish a mechanism to enforce monetary and fiscal discipline. This perverse incentive to borrow money at a much lower interest rate after joining a currency area is exactly what happened in the case of Greece. transfers across the OCA are the only way governments can effectively smooth out major economic shocks. he presented reasons for and against a particular country joining an OCA (Mundell 1997). The majority of Greek voters back parties opposed to austerity plans. May-12 Jun-12 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 65 . A common set of rules in terms of fiscal policy across members is another prerequisite for a successful currency area. Without it.’. just before the formal establishment of the euro on 1 January 1999 (Greece joined the euro in 2001). without a great deal of control in the form of a fiscal and political union. 29 May 2012 31 May 2012 11 Jun 2012 17 Jun 2012 Greece’s four largest banks record losses as bad debt balloons. Irish Government secures strong support for the Fiscal Stability Treaty. Spanish bank bailout of up to EUR 100 billion announced Greek elections. Such discipline. Such mobility and flexibility are hallmarks of sovereign states and are necessary to allow for different parts of the currency area to cope with shocks and dynamic adjustments to their economies.

December Quarter 2011. 4: 509-517. R. 5 December 1997. Sovereign Debt Crises. No 2. the better off countries will need to make large fiscal transfers to poorer countries over a number of years and also accept a collective responsibility for the national debts of insolvent countries within the euro zone. luncheon speech presented at Tel-Aviv University. Likewise.. Resources and Energy Quarterly Vol 1. No. A much more unified banking system will also be needed with a common deposit insurance scheme to protect against bank runs and to ensure private borrowing costs are similar across the euro zone. 1997. will require different currency area rules and fiscal behaviour by members than that which occurred in the first decade of the euro. Voters within both the sets of countries—providers and recipients of transfers—will also need to be persuaded that such a compact is worth it. To maintain a viable euro zone.Euro versus OCA The implication of an OCA is that either the euro zone countries develop a much more integrated fiscal and political union or the current membership of the euro zone will change. 2011.. —. to maintain Greece within the euro zone.html. Optimum Currency Areas.columbia. Pay Later. Pay Now. In particular. References Cliffe. Mundell. The American Economic Review LI. ING. it will require that recipient countries accept the lack of political autonomy such transfers imply and to abide by the fiscal rules set by those countries providing the transfers.edu/~ram15/eOCATAviv4.Q. Grafton. A Theory of Optimal Currency Areas.. Global Economics and Strategy Team. 66 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . the real economy and the euro zone crisis.. Available at http://www. EMU Break Up. 2011.A. M. 1961. R.

From 1989–90 to 2009–10 energy consumption of all household appliances in Australia increased from 71 petajoules to 133 petajoules. microwaves. a structural effect. This review analyses the underlying trends in energy intensity of major appliances in Australian households. This represents a 30. Appliances accounted for an important part of energy consumption in the residential sector. clothes washers. by 42. In this review.7 per cent increase in the Australian population.4 per cent. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 67 . Energy and Tourism. information and technology (IT) equipment. Over the study period the Australian population and the number of households increased steadily at an average rate of 1. dishwashers. changes in living standards of Australian households have had a discernible impact on the composition of household appliance ownership and energy consumption. freezers. The term ‘appliances’ refers only to the major appliances that include clothes dryers. and televisions because of data limitation. The number of households also increased. This sector’s energy consumption grew at an average annual rate of 1. Changes in energy consumption are decomposed into an activity effect. and amounted to more than 30 per cent of the total energy consumption of Australian households. which is based on changes in the output or level of activity.8 per cent per year. which is based on changes in the composition of activity.6 per cent over the period 1989–90 to 2009–10. refrigerators.6 million households in 2009–10.3 million people (see Figure 1).3 per cent and 1. * The views expressed in this review are those of the authors alone and are not necessarily those of the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics nor the Department of Resources. the changes in living standard are measured by increases in average living area per person and decreases in household occupancy. These appliances accounted for more than half of energy consumption for all appliances in 2009–10. and an efficiency effect. or at an average annual growth rate of 3. respectively.1 per cent over the period to approximately 8.1 million to 22. which is based on changes in energy intensity.Energy intensity analysis of household appliances in Australia Nhu Che and Pam Pham* Introduction The residential sector overall accounted for around 11 per cent of final energy use in Australia in 2009–10. Changes in living standards in Australian households Over the study period from 1989–90 to 2009–10. or a rise from 17.

DEWHA.0 2. the average living area per person has increased steadily at an average annual rate of 2 per cent. by 45 per cent. to around 64.5 per cent per year (see Figure 2). while the number of people per household has decreased gradually at an average rate of 0.6 2.8 2. 68 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . DEWHA. During the study period the average living area per person increased substantially.2 persons/ household 1989-90 1993-94 1997-98 2001-02 2005-06 2009-10 average household occupancy (right axis) average stock area per person Sources: ABS.Figure 1: Population growth and number of households 25 20 15 10 5 10 8 6 4 2 millions 1989-90 1993-94 1997-98 household (right axis) 2001-02 2005-06 population 2009-10 millions Source: ABS. BREE. Over the same period.4 2.2 square metres per person in 2009–10. Figure 2: 70 60 50 40 30 square metres Average household occupancy and average stock area per person 3.

2 1.4 0. Appliances with the fastest growing frequency of ownership by households are IT equipment. with an average annual growth rate of 17. In 2009–10.6 per cent and 0. the number of appliances owned by each household has not.0 0. respectively. followed by televisions at 25 per cent. Figure 3: Household appliance ownership 2. dishwashers. microwaves. Over the study period. televisions and refrigerators. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 69 .5 per cent per year. they still accounted for a large proportion of household appliance energy consumption. In 2008–09 and 2009–10.7 per cent (see Figure 4).4 1.Although the number of persons per household has decreased.6 0. much higher than the growth in the Australian population. respectively. ownership of refrigerators and televisions only increased at an average annual rate of 0. IT equipment constitutes the fastest growing appliance use in households.4 per cent.2 units/ household 1989-90 1993-94 dishwashers IT equipment 1997-98 2001-02 refrigerators televisions 2005-06 microwaves 2009-10 Source: DEWHA.0 1. energy consumption of IT equipment accounted for 16 per cent and 16. The number of appliances in the household sector has increased at an average growth rate of 3. of the total energy consumption of household appliances (see Figure 5). Household ownership of IT equipment has increased significantly over the study period (see Figure 3). refrigerators accounted for the largest share of total energy consumption of household appliances at 34 per cent.8 per cent. Nevertheless.8 1.6 1.8 0.

0% 2009-10 70 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . BREE.1% 16.0% 4.5% 25.0% 4.4% 8. Figure 5: Shares in total energy consumption of major household appliances in 2009–10 refrigerators televisions IT equipment freezers clothes dryers clothes washers microwaves dishwashers 34.Figure 4: Annual average growth rate of household ownership of major appliances IT equipment dishwashers microwaves televisions refrigerators clothes dryers clothes washers freezers total % 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Average annual growth rate.0% 4.3% 4. 1989-90 to 2009-10 Sources: DEWHA.

Observed trends in energy consumption of household appliances in Australia Figure 6 presents the changes in energy consumption of major appliances. However. Heritage and the Arts (DEWHA 2008) and BREE data of historical and projected energy consumption. or at an average growth rate of 3 per cent per year. Based on Department of the Environment. and contributed to 56 per cent and 34 per cent of overall household appliance energy consumption in 2008–09 and 2009–10. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 71 . energy consumption for refrigerators only increased by an average of 0. Figure 6: Energy consumption of major appliances 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 PJ 1989-90 1993-94 1997-98 2001-02 Appliances 2005-06 2009-10 Figure 7 shows the composition of and growth in energy consumption by household appliance. Water. Information and technology (IT) equipment—a component of household appliances— accounted for 16 per cent of total energy use in households.3 per cent per year over the study period. From 1989–90 to 2009–10 energy consumption of major appliances increased continually from 37 petajoules to 67 petajoules. respectively. but at an average annual growth rate of 27 per cent. this was the fastest growing energy use in the residential sector. it is estimated that refrigerators dominated appliance energy consumption.

72 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .Figure 7: Energy consumption of major appliances refrigerators televisions IT equipment freezers clothes dryers clothes washers microwaves dishwashers 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1989-90 40 45 50 2009-10 55 60 energy consumption shares refrigerators televisions IT equipment freezers clothes dryers clothes washers microwaves dishwashers -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 average annual growth rate.1 petajoules. During the study period. energy consumption of appliances increased by 30. 1989-90 to 2009-10 Figure 8 shows the decomposition of the change in energy consumption of major household appliances. The activity effect alone resulted in energy consumption increasing by 23 petajoules as a result of an increase in both the number of households and the average units of appliances used per household.

1 petajoules.2 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 The structural effect represents a shift in the relative use of different appliances. energy intensity of appliances decreased slightly at an average growth rate of 0. microwaves. dishwashers.1 e eciency e ect -5 0 11. does not necessarily indicate lower energy efficiency of these appliances. The largest declines in energy intensity were in dishwashers and refrigerators. Trends in energy intensity indicators Overall. This is primarily attributed to decreased energy intensity in the appliance group that includes clothes dryers. IT equipment and televisions (see Figure 10). Energy consumption of this group of appliances grew at a slower rate than the increasing energy intensity group of clothes washers. An increase in energy intensity for some end uses.Figure 8: Decomposition of change in energy consumption of major appliances change in energy consumption activity e ect 30. IT equipment and televisions. refrigerators and freezers (see Figure 9). IT equipment and televisions increased due to a growing trend of high technology televisions (such as plasma and LCD televisions). microwaves. larger screen sizes. which have fallen by 2. dishwashers. The efficiency effect of appliances led to an increase in energy consumption of appliances by 11.2 petajoules. microwaves. which partly offset increasing energy intensity in the appliance group that includes clothes washers. This is because over the study period energy intensity use per unit of clothes washers.0 structural e ect -4. and larger size with higher level of energy consumption for clothes washers. respectively.1 23. such as IT equipment. refrigerators and freezers has fallen over the study period (see Figure 9).4 per cent per year. Between 1989–90 and 2009–10 the structural change effect led to a decrease in energy consumption of appliances by 4. Energy intensity of the appliance group that includes clothes dryers. microwaves and IT equipment. A negative structural effect implies there has been a shift toward less energy intensive appliances by households.1 per cent and 2 per cent. however. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 73 .

which grew at an average rate of 27 per cent per year—the fastest among other household appliances—while the stock owned per household also increased.Figure 9: Decreasing energy intensity group of appliances 1. This may be attributed to significant increases in its energy consumption.25 2. microwaves.75 0.95 0.90 0.50 2. Figure 10: Increasing energy intensity group of appliances 2. at an average rate of 6.05 1. energy intensity of IT equipment has steadily increased during the study period.00 1.00 0. This group includes the fastest growing energy users of household appliances over this period.75 index 1989-90=1 1989-90 1993-94 clothes washers 1997-98 microwaves 2001-02 2005-06 2009-10 televisions IT equipment 74 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . For instance.70 index 1989-90=1 1989-90 total 1993-94 clothes dryers 1997-98 2001-02 dishwashers 2005-06 refrigerators 2009-10 freezers Energy intensity of the appliance group that includes clothes washers.85 0. but at a lower average growth rate of 20 per cent per year. IT equipment and televisions has generally increased over the study period (see Figure 10).50 1.00 0.25 1.75 1.80 0.4 per cent per year.

were achieved.50 2 0. The efficiency effect has resulted from increases in energy consumption of household appliances over this period.0 0. Energy intensity of major household appliances has declined consistently over the period 1989–90 to 2005–06.25 index 1989-90=1 1 PJ 1989-90 1993-94 1997-98 2001-02 2005-06 energy intensity 2009-10 change in energy consumption (right axis) Figure 12 shows the change in energy consumption as a result of the efficiency effect for each year over the study period.0 1.00 4 0.1 petajoules.Figure 11 presents trends in energy intensity and the yearly change in energy consumption in major household appliances as a whole.5 1. Figure 11: Trends in energy intensity and yearly change in energy consumption of major household appliances 1. and has remained relatively stable between 2005–06 and 2006–07 before increasing during the period 2007–08 to 2009–10.75 3 0.5 1989-90 1993-94 1997-98 2001-02 2005-06 2009-10 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 75 . respectively.5 PJ -0.2 petajoules and 0. This suggests that the efficiency effect can be an important factor that contributes to savings in energy consumption. The exception was in 2004–05 and 2005–06 when energy savings of 0. Figure 12: Yearly energy consumption due to the efficiency effect of major appliances 2.

A change in Australian household living standards also contributed to the change in the composition of household energy consumption over the same period. This is attributed to a shift toward the use of less energy intensive appliances by households. 76 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . The findings highlight the potential importance of energy efficiency in reducing household energy consumption.4 per cent over the period 1989–90 to 2009–10.Concluding remarks Energy intensity of major household appliances decreased at an average annual rate of 0.

Energy consumption E for household’s appliance category with n appliances can be expressed as: (1) (1) where A is the total activity for household’s appliance.Appendix: Decomposition of  energy  consumption   consumption Appendix:  Decomposition  method   method of energy This analysis applies a similar approach used in the report by Sandu and Petchey (2009) and Che and Pham (2012) for energy consumption decomposition analysis (see Ang and Liu 2001 and Ang et al. 2003). By defining and . However. The change in energy consumption associated with changes in the composition of household appliance ownership is referred to as the structural effect. Ai is the activity of an ith appliance and Ei is the energy consumption of the ith appliance. a change because of shifts in structure (structural effect) and a change because of changes in energy intensity (efficiency effect): (3) (3) where the subscripts 0 and T refer to the value of the variables at the start and end of the interval of interest. The second term on the right-hand side gives the share of the appliance’s activity of the total activity and the third term gives the energy intensity of the ith appliance. the structural effect. it is not equal to energy efficiency in the strict engineering sense unless the analysis is undertaken at the most disaggregated level of appliances. after adjusting for growth in overall activity. The structural effect captures changes in energy consumption when the composition of appliances with different energy intensities grows or declines at different rates. equation (1) can be rewritten as: (2) (2) The additive type of the log-mean divisia index method (LMDI) decomposition method allows us to express a given change in energy consumption of the ith appliance as the sum of a change in activity (activity effect). Changes in energy use over the study period are separated into three components that affect energy consumption: the activity effect. The variable is the logarithmic mean of energy consumption across the start and end periods and is defined as: (4) Resources and Energy Quarterly th • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 77 Similarly. and the efficiency effect. The activity effect of an appliance refers to the changes in energy consumption that arise solely from changes in the number of appliances owned by households. The change in energy consumption associated with the change in the energy intensity of each sector is referred to as the efficiency effect. the multiplicative type of the LMDI decomposition method allows us to express a given . This measure provides a useful indicator of energy efficiency.

Australian Demographic Statistics.. catalogue no. the multiplicative type of the LMDI decomposition method allows us to express a given change in energy consumption of the ith appliance as the product of an activity effect. B. ABARE research report • June quarter 2012 Sandu. The variable is the logarithmic mean of energy consumption across the start and end periods and is defined as: (4) (4) Similarly. catalogue no.’ End-use Energy vol. N. E.. End use energy intensity in the Australian economy. and Petchey. and Pham. ‘Perfect decomposition techniques in Che.’ Energy Policy. Economic Analysis of End-use Energy Intensity in Department of Environment... F. L. F. L. Canberra. Australian Demographic Statistics.17. E. prepared by Energy Efficient Strategies for DEWHA... Australia. May.0. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2011. June 2011. 3101.. Canberra. pp. and Chew. L. 31. December. P. and Liu. Liu. 26. Australian residential sector 1986–2020. Ang. 537–548. 3101. 1561–1566... End use energy intensity in the Australian . and Chew. Heritage and the Arts (DEWHA) 2008. ABARE S. Canberra. research report 09. of Resources and Energy Economics. 26. decomposition and consistent in pp. L. 2001. W. May.0. aggregation. a structural effect and an efficiency effect: 1 Here. W. Canberra. P. Ang. November.   economy. P. Canberra. 2001. ‘A new energy decomposition method: perfect in decomposition References   and consistent in aggregation. Intensitypp. pp. F. and Liu. 2012. N. 2012. Heritage and the Arts (DEWHA) 2008.’ Energy Policy. Liu. Energy use in the Department of Environment. Bureau2009. 2009. vol. Water...changes in energy intensity (efficiency effect): (3) where the subscripts 0 and T refer to the value of the variables at the start and end of the interval of interest. Sandu.‘A new energy decomposition method:energy and environmental analysis. prepared by Energy Efficient Strategies for DEWHA. in Australia...17. vol. December. W. 78 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 09. the variable (5) (5) is the logarithmic mean of energy consumption across the start 0 and end T periods and is defined as: (6) (6) References Ang. B.. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2011. Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.. Canberra.. and Petchey. P. 1561–1566. November. Energy use in the Australian residential sector 1986–2020.energy and environmental Analysis of Energy Policy. R. 2003. 2003. and Pham. Che. R.. Economic analysis. 537–548. F. June 2011. Water. B. vol. W. S. B. 31. ‘Perfect decomposition techniques in perfect in Ang..’ Energy Policy.

The Bowen Basin is located around 100–250 kilometres inland from the central Queensland coast. Australia's coal reserves to production ratio has remained around 90 years. Australia's economically demonstrated coal resources (EDR) as at December 2010 were estimated to be around 42 billion tonnes. The Galilee Basin is located west of the Bowen Basin. Almost all of Australia's EDR of black coal are located in Queensland and New South Wales. Global and Australian trade has been increasing significantly over the past five years. The Australian coal industry makes an important contribution to the Australian economy with exports valued at around $47 billion in 2011. and vast majority of Australia's coal production and exports originate in these two states. this is equivalent to over 90 years production. * The views expressed in this review are those of the authors alone and are not necessarily those of the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics nor the Department of Resources. Despite increases in production over the past five years. low cost and high quality reserves. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 79 . The vast majority of Queensland’s thermal coal production and all of its metallurgical coal production occurs in the Bowen Basin. It is possible that production and exports from the Galilee and Surat Basins may occur within the next decade because a number of projects have government approvals and are at an advanced stage of feasibility planning. Coal reserves in the state of Queensland consist of thermal and metallurgical coal. In terms of current levels of extraction. Surat and Galilee. Although there are substantial reserves in the Galilee and Surat Basins. Recoverable black coal in New South Wales consists primarily of thermal and semi-soft metallurgical coal. These are located predominantly in the Sydney-Gunnedah basin that extends from south of Sydney through the Hunter Valley and into the north-west of the state near Gunnedah and Narrabri. Coal reserves are located in three basins: Bowen. they are as yet untapped. This is equivalent to around 25 per cent of Australia’s resource and energy exports and 15 per cent of Australia’s total goods and services exports. while the Surat Basin is located to the south. Energy and Tourism. This review focuses on recent developments in Australia's coal industry and the outlook for the next five years. China and India. Reserves Australia's coal industry is based on large. underpinned by strong import demand from Asia. particularly the Republic of Korea.A short background of the Australian coal industry Alan Copeland and Rubhen Jeya* Australia is the world’s fourth largest black coal (thermal and metallurgical coal) producer and the world's largest coal exporter.

The increases in Australia's export volumes have been supported by the construction of a number of new mines in the Hunter Valley and the Bowen Basin. and the expansion of port facilities at Newcastle in New South Wales. Of the 281 million tonnes exported in 2011. Dalrymple Bay and Abbot Point in Queensland. including Japan. India and Europe. India. Australia’s coal exports in 2011 were around 281 million tonnes. equivalent to a quarter of world coal trade. 133 million tonnes were metallurgical coal and the remaining 148 million tonnes were thermal coal. China. Anglo American and Yancoal. increasing at an average annual rate of around 4 per cent a year. which accounted for 35 per cent of Australia's exports. Rio Tinto. The flooding was so significant that many mines still had water in their pits almost 12 months later. China. Around 80 per cent of Australia's coal production is exported. Figure 1: Australia’s market share of world exports 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 % 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 thermal metallurgical Source: BREE. Thailand and the US. Australia's coal production was around 400 million tonnes. Other important markets include the Republic of Korea. Australia's metallurgical coal exports in 2011 were around 10 per cent lower than in 2010. Major coal producers in Australia include BHP Billiton. Between 2006 and 2011.Production and exports In 2011. Australia’s coal exports grew substantially. In addition there are a number of locally based companies and those that are headquartered internationally. having increased by an average of 5 per cent a year since 2001. Peabody Energy. with the majority of the remaining production consumed in the electricity generation sector. Australia has diverse export markets with the largest being Japan. 80 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . which was a result of heavy rain and flooding across the Bowen Basin in January 2011. Xstrata. Hay Point. and Gladstone. The Australian coal industry comprises a diverse range of both publicly listed and privately owned companies.

The outlook for Australia’s coal exports over the period 2012 to 2017 is positive based on forecast increases in demand for imports from Asia.Recently. Given the relative proximity to the EU. the Republic of Korea and India. China’s coal exports in 2006 were around 63 million tonnes. the Republic of Korea and Thailand. The decrease in China’s exports has created an opportunity for other suppliers to raise their exports to Japan and the Republic of Korea. Of these 21 projects. there were 21 coal mine projects under construction with a combined value of $17. in 2006 around 11 per cent (19. growth in coal production in Colombia and the Russian Federation has enabled these countries to increase exports. Australia’s coal exports are forecast to reach 490 million tonnes in 2017 as Australian coal producers invest in new mine and infrastructure capacity to take advantage of the expected increase in import demand. The decrease in Australia’s coal exports to Europe is attributable to two factors. For instance. The current level of investment in Australian coal mines and infrastructure capacity is substantial. much of which has been exported to the EU. By 2011. this had fallen to around 15 million tonnes. a rapid expansion of coal-fired electricity generation between 2007 and 2009 increased coal demand which was sourced exclusively from imports. Japan imported around 3 per cent (7 million tonnes) from China. Asia’s imports of coal have increased by 11 per cent a year over the five years to 2011 to around 750 million tonnes. while the other 10 are in New South Wales. Secondly. China. All of these mines are scheduled to be in operation by 2015 and will add around 70 million tonnes a year of production capacity. Producers in Australia and Indonesia have been the main beneficiaries of the decrease in China’s coal exports. By 2011. Australia’s exports to Asia have increased while volumes into Europe have declined. In China and India. these two exporting countries have a significant freight cost advantage over producers in Australia and.3 billion. 11 are located in Queensland. have been able to increase their share of European imports. In the Republic of Korea.4 million tonnes) of Japan’s coal imports were sourced from China. rapid expansion of coal-fired electricity generation and steel production has resulted in domestic coal demand increasing at a rate faster than domestic production. European Union (EU) imports of coal have decreased by 4 per cent between 2006 and 2011. Over this period there is expected to be strong increases in imports from India. Firstly. This increase has been underpinned by growth in imports into China. where the majority of China’s coal was shipped to previously. The gap between domestic consumption and production has led to increased imports. In BREE’s Mining Industry Major Projects—April 2012 publication. hence. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 81 . The changes in Australia’s export markets reflect developments on both the demand and supply side.

Table 1: NSW Project Coal projects under construction   Owner Yancoal Australia Wesfarmers / Rio Tinto Idemitsu Kosan Rio Tinto / Mitsubishi Peabody Energy BHP Billiton Whitehaven Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Xstrata Xstrata   Owner BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) Peabody Energy BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) Wesfarmers BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA)       Capital expenditure* $250m US$184m (A$180m) $400m US$260m (A$255m) US$70m (A$69m) $US400m (A$392m) $300m $122m US$1. Includes development.5 Mt ROM 2014 2012 2013 2013 2012 2015 2013 2014   3.4 Mt coking late 2012 2-3 Mt hard coking 2014 8 Mt coking na US$4.2b (A$4.5 Mt coking $286m US$1. 82 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . plant and equipment costs.7 Mt thermal 2013 2013 2013 2013 5 Mt hard coking 1.1b) mid 2012 increase to 8.5 Mt coking mid 2012 1.25b $166m US$1.4b (A$1.96b) $200m US$275m (A$270m) Eagle Downs (Peak Downs East Aquila Resources underground) / Vale Ensham bord and pillar underground mine Grosvenor underground Kestrel Lake Vermont Millennium expansion Source: Ensham Resources Anglo Coal Australia Rio Tinto Jellinbah Resources Peabody Energy 2016 4.08b)   Capital expenditure* US$900m (A$882m) Austar underground (stage 3) Bengalla expansion (stage 1) Boggabri opencut Hunter Valley Operations Expansion Metropolitan longwall Mount Arthur 0(RX1) Narrabri Coal Project (stage 2) NRE No.37b) US$1.7b (A$1.3 Mt thermal 6 Mt thermal and semi soft coking 1 Mt hard coking 4 Mt thermal (ROM) 4.5 Mt thermal nil (mine upgrade) 8 Mt thermal and semi soft 7 Mt thermal   Expected New capacity startup 2013 0.66b) US$2b (A$1.55b) excl.5 Mt 2013 4.6b (A$1. 1 Colliery (preliminary works project) Ravensworth North Ulan West QLD Project Broadmeadow (mine life extension) Burton Caval Ridge / Peak Downs expansion Curragh Mine Daunia Expected New capacity startup 2014 2 Mt ROM coking mid 2012 1.1b (A$1. pre FID funding $1. * Total capital expenditure as reported by the company in current dollars.3 Mt coking 4 Mt 1-2 Mt coking BREE Mining Industry Major Projects—April 2012.

5 million tonnes). When the projects are complete. Australian coal producers will need to manage these costs while facing the challenges of a decline in coal prices expected over the next five years (BREE 2012). Beyond infrastructure capacity under construction. the Port of Newcastle will have a coal handling capacity of 211 million tonnes a year. Australia will have increased competition in export markets from existing exporters (Indonesia. Significant production and exports from the Surat and Galilee Basins are not anticipated until at least the end of this decade. while coal from the Galilee Basin could be exported through Abbot Point. equipment and consumables. however. The four largest projects. Both projects are scheduled for completion in 2014 and have a combined coal handling capacity of 38 million tonnes a year. While all of these projects are metallurgical coal mines located in the Bowen Basin. All four of these projects are scheduled for completion by 2014. labour. The increases in port capacity in both New South Wales and Queensland are also supported by a number of projects to increase rail capacity.5 million tonnes) mines. would need to be accompanied by rail connections to existing rail networks (in the case of the Surat Basin) or ports (Galilee Basin). there are a number of thermal coal projects that are going through planning and approval processes that could result in production commencing the Surat and Galilee Basins. Rio Tinto’s Hunter Valley Operations expansion (6 million tonnes) and Whitehaven’s Narrabri Longwall project (4. the majority of coal production capacity under construction is hard coking coal. are BHP Billiton’s Caval Ridge (annual capacity of 8 million tonnes) and Daunia (4. the second and third stages of Wiggins Island and new coal terminals at Abbot Point. Increased capacity at Wiggins Island could support coal exports from the Surat Basin. there are two coal port projects under construction: the first stage of the Wiggins Island Coal Terminal near Gladstone and an expansion and refurbishment of the Hay Point Coal Terminal near Mackay. there are a number of projects which are being progressed through planning and approvals stages that could increase Australia’s export capacity in the second half of this decade and beyond.5 million tonnes). the four largest projects under construction are Xstrata’s Ravensworth (8 million tonnes of annual capacity) and Ulan West (7 million tonnes) mines. Coal production costs are also increasing associated with higher costs for project capital. Colombia and North America) and from emerging exporters (Mongolia and Mozambique). These include the T4 project at Newcastle.In Queensland. transportation. the vast majority will support increased thermal coal production. The Surat and Galilee Basins have significant reserves of thermal coal and can support largescale mine developments. Of the 10 coal projects under construction in New South Wales. Any development of mines in the Surat and Galilee Basin. In terms of production capacity. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 83 . Anglo Coal’s Grosvenor mine (5 million tonnes) and Vale’s and Aquilla’s Eagle Downs mine (4. While Australia’s coal industry has grown significantly over the past five years. there are 11 coal-related infrastructure projects under construction including six rail expansions and five port expansions. All four of these projects are scheduled for completion by 2015. To support increases in Australia’s coal exports. In Queensland. and will continue to grow over the next five years. it faces some challenges. in terms of production capacity. coal port capacity will be increased by 48 million tonnes following the completion of expansions to the Kooragang Island Coal Terminal and the Newcastle Coal Infrastructure terminal. In New South Wales.

84 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .

Resources and Energy Quarterly Statistical tables Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 85 .

Australia 8 All banks lending to business. Australia 11 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities 12 Annual world production. Australia 10 Annual private mineral exploration expenditure. Australia 14 Annual volume of commodity exports. by value (fob). consumption. Australia 17 Quarterly commodity production. Australia. Australia 16 Annual value of imports of selected commodities. Australia 18 Quarterly commodity exports. balance of payments basis 4 Annual industry gross value added.REQ Statistical Tables 1 Annual exports summary. Australia 15 Annual value of commodity exports (fob). Australia 9 Annual capital expenditure of private enterprises. Balance of payments basis 2 Annual unit export returns. stocks and trade for selected commodities 13 Annual commodity production. Australia 19 Quarterly commodity exports. Australia 7 Annual business income. Australia 3 Contribution to exports by sector. Australia 20 Quarterly resources and energy export unit returns. Australia 94 95 96 97 98 98 99 99 100 101 102 103 105 107 108 109 110 112 113 114 114 86 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Australia 6 Annual employment. Australia 5 Annual volume of production indexes. Australia 21 Quarterly commodity imports. by volume.

Australia 23 Resources and energy prices 24 Aluminium 25 Coal 26 Copper 27 Diamonds and other gemstones 28 Gold 29 Iron 30 Lead 31 Manganese 32 Nickel 33 Petroleum 34 Petroleum production. by basin 35 Sales of petroleum products.22 Quarterly private resources and energy exploration expenditure. by state marketing area 36 Phosphate 37 Salt 38 Silver 39 Tin 40 Titanium minerals 41 Uranium 42 Zircon 43 Zinc 115 116 117 118 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 87 .

0b Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Vietnam Other Asia Middle East New Zealand Other 12% 6% 7% 15% 14% 20% 5% 22% $44.3% 10.1% 7.3b Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Vietnam Other Asia Middle East New Zealand Other 8% 9% 17% 4% 15% 8% 5% 34% 88 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .7% 8.2b United States Japan China Germany Malaysia Singapore New Zealand Other 11% 8% 19% 5% 4% 5% 3% 44% Resources & Energy $19.8% 2.5b Services Building and construction Manufacturing Mining Agriculture.2b United States Japan China Germany Malaysia Singapore New Zealand Other 19% 13% 8% 5% 4% 3% 4% 44% $214. forestry and shing 74% 5. forestry and shing 74.5% 7.3% 7.6% 2010-11 $1317.Contribution to GDP Australia 2000-01 $975.4% 2.9b Services Building and construction Manufacturing Mining Agriculture.3% Principal Markets for Australian Imports in 2010-11 dollars 2000-01 2010-11 Total $157.

of United States New Zealand India European Union 27 Other 19% 26% 9% 4% 3% 6% 7% 25% Resources $43. Rep.7b Japan China Korea. of Other Asia Thailand India European Union 27 Other 16% 7% 9% 20% 2% 1% 9% 36% $109.7b Japan Korea. Rep.2b Japan China Korea. Rep.9b Japan China Korea. of United States New Zealand India European Union 27 Other 20% 6% 8% 10% 6% 2% 12% 38% $245. Rep. Rep. of China India Other Asia European Union 27 Other 38% 11% 2% 3% 19% 7% 18% $69.8b Japan China Korea. of China India Other Asia European Union 27 Other 35% 13% 13% 12% 13% 6% 7% Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 89 . Rep. of Other Asia Thailand India European Union 27 Other 13% 39% 9% 8% 3% 6% 5% 16% Energy $34.1b Japan Korea.Principal Markets for Australian Exports in 2010-11 dollars 2000-01 2010-11 Total $158.

base: 1994–95 = 100 Energy minerals 90 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .Resources and energy sector indicators. Australia Mine production base: 1997–98 = 100 140 130 120 110 100 90 index 2000-01 Metals and other minerals Energy minerals 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Mineral resources exports 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 value 10 000 $m Mar 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Dec 2008 Mar 2009 Jun 2009 Sep 2009 Dec 2009 Mar 2010 Jun 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 quarterly Share of total goods and services exports 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 % Export unit returns 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 index Mar 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Dec 2008 Mar 2009 Jun 2009 Sep 2009 Metals and other minerals Dec 2009 Mar 2010 Jun 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Total mineral resources quarterly.

of India Japan China 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 91 . Rep. of China Japan 0 1900 3800 5700 7600 9500 15 188 Gold Hong Kong China Singapore Thailand India United Kingdom 0 900 1800 2700 3600 4500 0 Iron Ore United Kingdom France Chinese Taipei Korea.Principal markets for Australian resources and energy exports in 2010-11 dollars. Rep. of Japan China 0 8000 16000 24000 32000 40000 87 80 466 Aluminium Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Chinese Taipei Korea. of India Japan 0 1800 3600 5400 7200 9000 58 Oil and Gas New Zealand Thailand Singapore Korea. Rep. of Japan 0 600 1200 1800 2400 3000 Copper Chinese Taipei Malaysia Korea. $m 2000-01 2010-11 Thermal Coal Mexico Malaysia China Chinese Taipei Korea. Rep. of Japan 0 1400 2800 4200 5600 7000 40 63 35 Metallurgical Coal Brazil Netherlands Chinese Taipei China Korea. Rep. Rep.

Resources and energy prices. ended March quarter 2012 Alumina 500 400 300 200 100 0 A$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 US$/t Mar-98 Aluminium Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Gold 2000 1500 1000 500 0 US$/oz Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 160 120 80 40 0 A$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Iron ore Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Thermal coal 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 A$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 500 400 300 200 100 0 A$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Metallurgical coal Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Crude oil (WTI) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 US$/bbl Mar-98 150 125 100 75 50 25 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 0 US$/lb Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Uranium Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 92 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .

Canberra. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 93 . London Metal Exchange. Australian Bureau of Statistics. US Department of Energy. The Ux Consulting Company. ABARES.Resources and energy prices. London Bullion Market Association. Energy Information Administration. ended March quarter 2012 Copper 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 US$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 US$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Lead Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 US$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Zinc 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Silver USc/oz 0 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 US$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Nickel 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 A$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Ilmenite Mar-04 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 A$/t Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Rutile 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 A$/t A Mar-98 Zircon Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Sources: BREE.

s BREE estimate. Balance of Payments and International Investment Position.0. Reference year is 2009–10. Balance of Payments Basis Australia 2007–08 $m At current prices Resources and energy Coal. cat. na Not available. cat. Australia. coke and briquettes Other fuels Metalliferous ores and other minerals as Gold Other metals bs Total s Total commodities sector s Other merchandise s Total merchandise s Services Total goods and services Chain volume measures c Resources and energy Coal. no. f BREE forecast. coke and briquettes Other fuels Metalliferous ores and other minerals as Gold Other metals bs Total s Total commodities sector s Other merchandise s Total merchandise s Services Total goods and services 2008–09 $m 2009–10 $m 2010–11 $m 2011–12 f $m 2012–13 f $m 24 603 18 889 41 930 12 272 18 211 115 904 145 875 37 047 182 922 50 891 233 813 54 954 20 706 52 733 17 508 14 358 160 259 194 176 37 447 231 623 52 948 284 571 36 777 18 964 54 082 14 300 14 031 138 154 168 630 33 121 201 751 52 011 253 762 44 101 23 594 79 814 14 256 15 963 177 729 212 095 34 884 246 979 50 859 297 838 48 016 26 492 85 618 16 952 14 574 191 652 227 688 na na na na 48 756 31 305 91 395 21 702 14 415 207 573 242 871 na na na na 29 585 16 568 47 367 16 500 13 907 123 928 153 155 31 088 184 243 53 651 236 965 30 951 17 523 46 991 18 348 14 358 128 171 159 801 28 175 187 976 54 023 241 051 36 777 18 964 53 994 14 300 13 668 137 703 169 473 32 277 201 750 52 011 253 761 35 279 20 027 55 602 12 767 14 356 138 031 170 983 33 855 204 838 49 842 254 680 36 527 19 260 61 631 13 001 15 174 145 592 184 271 na na na na 40 145 23 196 67 215 15 546 15 109 161 212 na na na na na a Includes diamonds. which are retained as confidential by the ABS.0. ABARES. 94 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . c For a description of chain volume measures. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Introduction of chain volume measures. see ABS. no. b Includes BREE estimates for steel and nickel. which are not included in the balance of payments item by the ABS. 5248. in the Australian National Accounts. 5302. Canberra. Sources: BREE.1 Annual Export Summary. Canberra.

Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 95 .6 204.Exports 2 Unit export returns Australia Annual indexes a Metals and other minerals Energy Total resources and energy 2006–07 201. f BREE forecast.8 235.5 2011–12 f 2012–13 f 270. ABARES.0 295.2 271.1 329.3 258. Sources: BREE. Base: 1989–90 = 100. s BREE estimate.3 2010–11 281.6 345.2 293.8 214.9 229.8 398.7 299.3 290.6 2009–10 210.2 317.5 206.6 a In Australian dollars.3 2008–09 225.3 2007–08 199.

8% rural a 12.8% mineral resources 49.5% 2008–09 other merchandise 16.8% Proportion of exports of goods and services services 17.6% 2006–07 other merchandise 19.8% other merchandise 15.0% other merchandise 11.6% other merchandise 13.2% rural a 11.9% services 21.2% rural a 13.0% 2009–10 other merchandise 16.9% mineral resources 56. balance of payments basis Contribution to exports by sector. BREE. forest and sheries products. balance of payments basis Australia Australia Proportion of merchandise exports 2010–11 other merchandise 14.5% mineral resources 62.7% mineral resources 72.8% rural a 11.4% mineral resources 68.0% 96 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .1% services 20.2% rural a 14.3% 2007–08 other merchandise 20.5% mineral resources 59.4% rural a 15.6% a Includes farm.1% rural a 12% mineral resources 54.Exports Exports 3 5 Contribution to exports by sector.5% other merchandise 13.4% rural a 16.8% rural a 14.2% mineral resources 63. rural a 17.4% services 21.0% mineral resources 49.2% mineral resources 69. Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics.6% services 18.8% other merchandise 15.

no. product Non-metallic mineral products Metal products Machinery and equipment Total Construction Electricity. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Expenditure and Product. Australian National Accounts: National Income. b ANZSIC 2006. gas. chemical. clothing and other manufacturing Wood and paper products Printing and recorded media Petroleum. reference year is 2009–10. cat. coal.0.Industry gross value 4 Mining Industry gross value added a. 5206. Canberra. b Australia unit 2006–07 23 138 78 935 7 783 86 446 23 160 9 262 8 400 5 048 18 652 5 673 20 408 19 257 108 703 86 469 26 798 89 888 0 1 201 562 2007–08 24 742 79 923 8 632 88 193 23 127 9 695 8 071 5 174 19 114 5 926 22 718 19 884 113 062 92 517 26 866 91 667 0 1 246 899 2008–09 29 108 82 209 8 656 90 508 22 404 8 688 7 457 4 268 17 200 5 890 21 992 18 760 106 363 95 291 27 894 90 826 –1 1 263 934 2009–10 28 765 87 796 8 309 96 106 23 953 7 150 7 736 4 088 17 807 5 783 21 310 19 881 107 707 95 804 28 623 90 334 0 1 293 380 2010–11 29 796 88 278 9 171 97 447 23 576 6 647 7 567 4 101 17 907 5 608 21 515 19 552 106 476 101 794 28 893 91 073 –3 577 1 317 914 Agriculture. water and waste services Taxes less subsidies on products Statistical discrepancy Gross domestic product $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m a Chain volume measures. beverage and tobacco product Textile. forestry and fishing Mining (excludes services to mining) Exploration and mining support services Total Manufacturing Food. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 97 . etc.

4 2008–09 122. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics.1 2009–10 125.3 2011–12 f 127. publishing and recorded media Petroleum. Labour Force.9 124. forestry and fishing Mining Coal Oil and gas extraction Metal ore Other mining (including services) Total Manufacturing Food. b Australia 2005–06 ’000 2006–07 ’000 352 27 10 46 53 136 215 51 77 51 92 36 161 342 1 025 8 876 10 388 2007–08 ’000 355 26 11 47 62 146 230 50 70 54 98 42 159 360 1 063 9 144 10 708 2008–09 ’000 362 35 15 49 72 170 226 48 67 51 90 40 157 348 1 028 9 332 10 892 2009–10 ’000 369 41 15 52 66 173 228 46 64 52 88 37 147 343 1 006 9 479 11 027 2010–11 ’000 351 48 13 69 75 205 229 45 57 56 85 37 147 336 992 9 806 11 355 Agriculture. s BREE estimate. beverages and tobacco Textiles.8 138. 98 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .0 144.6 2012–13 f 136.2 124.1 a Uranium is included with energy. footwear and leather Wood and paper product Printing.0 144. Caution should be used when using employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposes. f BREE forecast. Note: The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Canberra.Production.4 2010–11 121. 6291.1 120.6 119.0.4 152. clothing. Sources: BREE. b ANZSIC 2006.6 121.5 123. coal and chemical product Non-metallic mineral product Metal product Other manufacturing Total Other industries Total 348 29 9 42 49 129 205 56 77 52 88 38 161 347 1 025 8 587 10 089 a Average employment over four quarters. cat. employment 5 Volume of production indexes Australia 2007–08 Mine a Energy Metals and other minerals Total resources and energy 116.2 135. Australia. Australian Bureau of Statistics.9 130. no. ABARES. 6 Employment a.

1 14.2 42. Australian Bureau of Statistics. retail trade.1 655. Australian National Accounts: National Income. Australian Bureau of Statistics.1 42.2 120.1 315.2 38. no.7 95.8 120. coal and chemical product Non-metallic mineral product Metal product Machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Total Other industries (including services) Total (including services) 40 311 4 532 548 1 085 578 3 859 1 108 10 004 1 640 762 24 116 88 856 153 273 2007–08 $m 40 184 5 757 501 1 184 620 6 192 1 359 7 924 1 937 851 26 325 99 836 166 345 2008–09 $m 67 402 6 166 245 667 170 2 159 978 3 781 2 695 637 17 498 73 102 158 029 2009–10 $m 49 889 8 168 409 615 439 3 676 1 155 2 662 3 383 712 21 219 98 834 170 042 2010–11 $m 76 563 na na na na na na na na na 20 344 103 016 199 942 a Company profits before income tax.0.4 91. Australian Industry.0 303. Australia. Sources: BREE. Canberra. cat.2 28. transport and storage Finance and insurance Other Total 57. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 99 .3 38.7 92.7 11. 5676.1 39. Australian Bureau of Statistics.1 28. no.4 665.4 673. cat. no. Bulletin Statistical Table D8. 5651.3 89. Canberra.8 96.7 310.4 92.2 Mar $b 58.0 26.3 132. beverages and tobacco Textiles.0 307.1 39.8 14.6 664.1 40.7 2010–11 Dec $b 58. cat.8 29. footwear and leather Wood and paper product Printing. fishing and forestry Mining Manufacturing Construction Wholesale.Business. banks 7 Business income Australia 2006–07 $m Company profits in selected industries a Mining Manufacturing Food.2 a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.0 40. based on ANZSIC 2006.0 306.3 669. clothing.0 661. 8 All banks lending to business a Australia 2009–10 Mar $b Agriculture.0 Jun $b 59.5 114. Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics.9 128.5 133.2 92. cat. Expenditure and Product.3 675. Canberra.0 125.6 28.1 12.3 Sep $b 58. 8155.9 657.2 Dec $b 60. no. Company Profits.0. Australia.2 309.2 Jun $b 60. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.2 90.9 28.6 121. Canberra.8 11. Australian Bureau of Statistics.2 28.1 27.6 11.0.0.8 307. 5206.5 13.2 2011–12 Sep $b 60.4 12. publishing and recorded media Petroleum.1 306. Business Indicators.

cat. 5206. beverages and tobacco Textiles. no. Sources: BREE. Australia.0. Canberra. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Expenditure and Product. Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure. ABARES. 100 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Canberra. cat. footwear and leather Wood and paper product Printing.Capital expenditure 9 Capital expenditure of private enterprises Australia 2006–07 $m At current prices Gross fixed capital formation a All sectors New capital expenditure Mining b Manufacturing Food. which include taxation-based statistics. 5625. b ANZSIC 2006 Division B. clothing. Australian National Accounts: National Income. coal and chemical product Non-metallic mineral product Metal product Machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Total Total surveyed industries Chain volume measures c Gross fixed capital formation a All sectors New capital expenditure Mining Manufacturing Other selected industries Total surveyed industries 313 198 25 463 12 663 49 861 88 109 2007–08 $m 2008–09 $m 2009–10 $m 2010–11 $m 299 101 23 621 2 256 139 759 353 1 767 467 4 761 1 436 58 12 106 87 475 336 357 29 201 2 596 112 928 396 2 126 474 4 137 1 110 164 12 340 96 833 351 112 37 977 2 492 118 897 450 2 239 609 4 608 1 160 108 12 682 113 201 356 037 35 185 2 566 140 719 452 2 207 731 3 689 1 112 126 11 743 107 104 370 295 46 847 2 882 70 610 187 2 320 806 4 017 1 340 111 12 343 119 341 343 309 30 546 13 032 54 942 98 524 348 084 37 627 12 627 60 515 110 727 356 036 35 184 11 743 60 178 107 105 369 742 46 919 12 713 62 076 121 709 a Estimates taken from ABS national accounts. c Reference year is 2009–10. publishing and recorded media Petroleum. no.0. Australian Bureau of Statistics.

2 1 742.6 48.3 2 225.6 449.9 4 049.4 399.3 185. 8412.8 1 018.2 114.9 748.2 na na 147.2 22. Mineral and Petroleum Exploration.2 438.9 3 315.5 3 501. nickel and zinc.7 297.1 1 484. silver and cobalt b Mineral sands Diamonds Other Total metals and other minerals a Total expenditure 2006–07 $m 2007–08 $m 2008–09 $m 2009–10 $m 2010–11 $m 355.8 231.2 2 502.0 588.1 493.4 3 810.6 10.3 1 740.6 2 745.9 234.4 519.0.7 756.7 6 033.1 5 496. lead.2 2 217.2 4 293.8 455.4 575.5 193. Canberra.0 669.2 169.0 652.7 6 266.0 21.6 498.5 2 558. b Base metals include copper.8 1 995.9 166.8 906.7 110.1 2 532.2 37.3 3 940.7 29.5 na na 196. cat.1 3 034.9 285.8 2 541.8 783.1 321. Australia.2 592.7 519.0 37.3 492.Mineral exploration 10 Private mineral exploration expenditure Australia 2005–06 $m At current prices Energy Petroleum Onshore Offshore Total Coal Uranium Total Metals and other minerals a Gold Iron ore Base metals.3 356.7 a Uranium is included with energy.4 555.1 30.5 3 494.2 665. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics.9 46.4 56.3 5 726.4 524.1 3 984.1 1 261.6 161.8 1 407.2 1727.0 154.7 213. no.1 457.3 3 318. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 101 .3 26.

2 89.0 111.3 96.7 96.0 23 963 2 880 23 960 2 243 104.2 75..1 13 322 1 289 13 576 1 403 74. f BREE forecast. d Australian hematite fines to Japan (fob) for Japanese Fiscal Year commencing 1 April. b Average LME spot price unless otherwise stated.25 1 868 4 919 874 145 1 459 1 340. ISTA Mielke and Co. Australian Bureau of Statistics.04 2 170 7 671 1 706 214 2 185 na 17 750 3 628 17 498 2 191 a Average of weekly restricted spot prices over the period.1 95.13 2 383 8 671 1 372 180 2 392 768. World Bureau of Metal Statistics. 102 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .3 110.81 2 016 6 691 1 092 97 2 093 544.World prices 11 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f Energy Crude oil Dubai West Texas Intermediate Brent dated Uranium (U3O8) a Minerals and metals b Aluminium Copper Gold c Iron ore (negotiated) d Lead Manganese (negotiated) e Nickel Silver Tin Zinc US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/lb US$/t US$/t US$/oz USc/dmtu US$/t US$/t US$/t USc/oz US$/t US$/t 90.7 51.2 80.9 28 564 1 544 18 529 2 606 68.9 19 390 1 688 16 202 2 066 92. Sources: BREE.8 51.4 96.1 19 217 3 326 20 011 2 046 108. London Bullion Market Association. The London Metal Exchange Ltd.8 95. US Department of Energy.0 57.2 74. e Japanese Fiscal Year commencing 1 April. Ux Consulting Company.9 55.75 2 667 7 785 823 80 2 904 540. Platts Oilgram.5 70. BREE Australia–Japan average contract price assessment. International Energy Agency. na Not available.3 68. published by Ux Consulting. c London gold fix. Reuters Ltd. London Bullion Market Association.5 43.58 2 203 8 227 1 673 230 2 185 544.

3 77.2 55. consumption.8 86.3 61.2 34.8 90.World 12 World production.4 88.1 85.2 90.3 35.6 88.2 79. stocks and trade for selected commodities a unit 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 f 2013 f Energy Crude oil Production World b OPEC c Consumption b Coal Production Hard coal d Brown coal Exports Metallurgical coal Thermal coal Uranium (U3O8) Production es Consumption Metals Bauxite production Alumina production Aluminium Production Consumption Closing stocks g Iron and steel Production Iron ore h Pig iron Crude steel Iron ore trade Gold Mine production Supply Fabrication consumption i mbd mbd mbd 86.2 85.5 35.1 91.8 58.8 56.6 87.7 kt kt kt kt kt 217 469 77 564 39 669 36 900 4 709 193 038 73 667 37 197 34 765 6 485 203 460 81 023 41 911 40 173 6 502 240 587 89 248 44 624 42 386 7 098 255 102 91 108 45 554 44 601 8 051 268 695 95 962 47 981 47 781 8 252 Mt Mt Mt Mt t t t 1 693 927 1 330 889 2 429 4 014 3 027 1 588 900 1 220 955 2 611 4 380 2 517 1 815 1 020 1 415 1 055 2 741 4 383 2 784 2 080 1 133 1 511 1 072 2 818 4 479 2 759 2 134 1 183 1 573 1 122 2 907 4 468 2 808 2 243 1 231 1 634 1 228 2 977 4 427 2 856 Continued Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 103 .6 89.5 76.2 53.6 73.5 Mt Mt Mt Mt 5 653 965 234 704 5 842 913 220 721 6 020 930 273 794 6 225 935 270 837 6 443 954 284 871 na na 292 919 kt kt 53.5 37.9 91.2 77.3 88.6 34.1 36.

h China’s iron ore production adjusted to world average. World Bureau of Metal Statistics. International Atomic Energy Agency. consumption. f BREE forecast. Australian Bureau of Statistics..G. International Lead–Zinc Study Group. Economic Commission for Europe. d Includes anthracite and bituminous coal. sub-bituminous coal. International Energy Agency. United Nations. Australia and New Zealand. ABARES. e World production data have been revised to exclude reprocessed uranium. j Primary refined metal. Consolidated Gold Fields.. International Nickel Study Group. g LME and producer stocks. c Includes OPEC natural gas liquids. stocks and trade for selected commodities a continued unit Base metals Copper Production j Consumption Closing stocks Lead Production j Consumption Closing stocks Nickel Production j Consumption Closing stocks Tin Production j Consumption Closing stocks Zinc Production j Consumption Closing stocks Mineral sands Production Ilmenite k Titaniferous slag Rutile concentrate Zircon concentrate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 f 2013 f kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt 18 501 18 138 845 9 075 9 072 307 1 382 1 278 155 332 337 32 11 778 11 565 820 18 613 18 178 1 125 9 054 9 069 390 1 322 1 234 234 333 322 46 11 286 10 920 1 217 19 177 19 332 1 017 9 682 9 683 447 1 446 1 464 213 352 368 16 12 830 12 572 1 562 19 791 19 472 985 10 372 10 216 623 1 597 1 569 172 369 375 5 13 084 12 709 1 867 20 249 20 294 940 10 653 10 556 720 1 683 1 650 205 369 375 45 13 281 13 117 2 031 21 490 21 366 1 064 11 139 10 865 995 1 747 1 732 219 384 385 45 13 772 13 641 2 161 kt kt kt kt 11 422 2 695 615 1 282 9 881 2 247 572 1 067 11 470 2 749 708 1 338 11 310 2 545 679 1 442 11 614 2 610 639 1 376 11 690 2 700 680 1 404 a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. Sources: BREE. i Includes jewellery consumption. b 1 million litres (1 megalitre) a year equals about 17. Metallgesellschaft A. ISTA Mielke and Co. International Iron and Steel Institute. 104 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . UNCTAD Trust Fund on Iron Ore. Gold Fields Mineral Services. s BREE estimate. k Excludes some small producers and large tonnages produced from ilmenite–magnetite ore in the Commonwealth of Independent States.2 barrels a day.World 12 World production. na Not available. and for the United States.

4 65.4 707 194 152 7 355 3 014 226 106 15 272 73.9 617 189 148 5 795 2 365 157 114 6 197 68. primary Gold Mine production d Iron and steel Ore and concentrate e Iron and steel Lead Mine production d Refined g Bullion Manganese Ore.2 641 203 152 5 428 2 188 190 105 15 222 64. metallurgical grade Metal content of ore Nickel h Mine production d Refined.0 25 610 k 39 575 41. raw Brown Petroleum Crude oil and condensate Petroleum products a Gas b LPG (naturally occurring) Uranium (U3O8) Metalliferous minerals and metals Aluminium Bauxite Alumina Aluminium (ingot metal) Copper Mine production d Refined.3 26 407 k 39 546 44. class I s Refined.9 353.8 s 530.7 8.4 450.7 324.8 66.1 3 907 7 069 364.6 526.6 596 213 155 3 730 1 504 185 95 15 213 67.1 3 913 7 217 408.9 68.1 19 597 1 974 890 499 217.6 4.0 7.8 453.5 508.7 3 971 10 123 339.9 3 946 7 860 Mt kt kt kt kt t Mt Mt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt 63.5 19 041 1 938 952 485 265.1 s 487.2 5.2 68.9 s na 23 034 34 387 58.6 446.7 24 745 k 38 393 53.8 25 583 k 37 200 50.Australia production 13 Commodity production Australia unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f Energy Coal Black.3 s na 22 826 37 598 52. class II i Total ore processed j Mt Mt Mt ML ML Gm3 ML t 326.5 19 359 1 964 847 444 229.7 19 780 1 944 971 484 261.2 422.8 20 056 1 920 819 395 239.9 590 181 150 7 348 3 010 221 114 15 273 Continued Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 105 .7 423. saleable Black.4 6.3 697 190 133 6 784 2 756 195 90 10 236 71.5 3 930 10 311 362.5 466.9 22 880 1 776 1 113 504 282.8 5.1 4 097 7 109 344.

s BREE estimate. b Includes ethane. i Products with a nickel content of less than 99 per cent. Queensland Government. ABARES. International Nickel Study Group. f BREE forecast. Australian Bureau of Statistics. d Primary production. Energy and Tourism. k Energy Quest. Coal Services Pty Limited. Includes electrolytic nickel. g Includes lead content of lead alloys from primary sources. briquettes and powder. c Uranium is included with energy. methane and coal seam gas. Consolidated Gold Fields.Australia production 13 Commodity production Australia unit continued 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f Metalliferous minerals and metals (continued) Silver Mine production d t Refined t Tin Mine production d t Refined t Titanium kt Ilmenite concentrate s kt Leucoxene concentrate s kt Rutile concentrate s Synthetic rutile s kt Titanium dioxide pigment s kt Zinc Mine production d kt Refined kt kt Zircon concentrate s Other minerals Diamonds Salt ’000 ct kt 1 867 605 1 767 na 2 205 153 332 672 201 1 571 507 563 16 528 9 826 1 764 751 4 045 na 1 932 117 285 732 214 1 411 506 485 15 169 11 314 1 809 701 19 829 na 1 398 123 361 553 222 1 362 515 408 11 138 11 772 1 792 712 18 410 na 1 275 200 467 542 204 1 479 499 674 8 027 11 562 1 905 883 9 202 s na 1 298 228 454 464 204 1 547 521 714 10 168 11 413 s 1 987 948 6 024 320 1 295 228 486 461 204 1 617 535 613 12 160 11 159 a Excludes production from petrochemical plants. Includes ferronickel. j Includes imported ore for further processing. Department of Resources. pellets. 106 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Sources: BREE. metal content. h Products with a nickel content of 99 per cent or more. Department of Natural Resources and Mines. nickel oxides and oxide sinter. e Excludes iron oxide not intended for metal extraction. Energy Quest.

31 billion cubic metres of gas. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 107 . International Nickel Study Group. no. 5465.0. Department of Resources. 72. International Trade. b 1 million tonnes of LNG equals aprroximately1. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Energy and Tourism. h Excludes leucoxene and synthetic rutile. concentrates. ’Iron and steel’. cat. d Quantities refer to gross weight of all ores and concentrates.Export volumes 14 Volume of commodity exports Australia unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f Resources and energy Resources Metalliferous minerals and metals c Aluminium Bauxite kt Alumina kt Aluminium (ingot metal) kt Copper kt Ore and concentrate d Refined kt t Gold e Iron and steel Iron ore and pellets Mt kt Iron and steel g Lead Ores and concentrates kt Refined kt Bullion kt kt Manganese d kt Nickel es Titanium kt Ilmenite concentrate h Leucoxene concentrate kt Rutile concentrate kt kt Synthetic rutile s Titanium dioxide pigment kt Refined silver t t Tin e Zinc kt Ores and concentrates d Refined kt kt Zircon concentrate i Other minerals Diamonds Salt Energy Crude oil a LPG LNG bs Petroleum products Metallurgical coal Thermal coal Uranium (U3O8) ’000 ct kt ML ML Mt ML Mt Mt t 7 917 15 739 1 650 1 694 296 382 294 2 131 308 193 169 5 105 211 894 69 399 513 175 335 3 079 2 323 411 637 16 528 10 686 15 975 2 589 14 1 807 137 115 10 139 7 470 16 395 1 748 1 797 361 437 324 1 741 381 261 147 3 226 194 1 538 61 550 512 141 423 4 159 2 101 451 685 16 279 10 978 16 588 2 500 15 1 164 125 136 10 114 8 023 16 653 1 624 1 928 271 335 390 1 549 491 186 151 5 648 221 1 763 18 575 513 181 420 6 031 2 271 425 748 10 355 11 185 18 064 2 776 18 850 157 135 7 555 8 595 16 227 1 686 1 750 375 301 407 1 785 494 213 93 6 190 210 1 804 27 491 517 195 198 5 431 2 317 410 963 9 900 11 162 19 638 2 471 20 760 140 143 6 950 s 9 977 16 942 1 713 1 832 386 331 463 1 186 435 223 153 6 504 240 2 045 31 334 536 191 275 4 838 2 373 452 846 11 526 10 884 19 167 2 203 19 877 142 159 7 217 s 8 894 19 416 1 563 2 227 365 361 510 1 018 404 178 150 6 854 258 2 035 31 367 462 191 474 5 704 2 363 462 771 12 160 10 773 19 389 2 276 23 1 117 161 179 7 860 s a Includes condensate and other refinery feedstock. Canberra. f BREE forecast. excluding ferrous waste and scrap and ferroalloys. intermediate products and refined metal. Australian Mining Industry Council. Australia. Australian Harmonized Export Commodity Classification. ABARES. g Includes all steel items in ABS. i Data from 1991–92 refer to standard grade zircon only. ch. c Uranium is included with energy. e Quantities refer to total metallic content of all ores. Sources: BREE. s BREE estimate. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Export values 15 Value of commodity exports (fob) Australia 2007–08 $m Resources Metalliferous minerals and metals Aluminium Bauxite s Alumina Aluminium (ingot metal) Copper c Ore and concentrate Refined Gold c Iron and steel Iron ore and pellets Iron and steel Lead c Ores and concentrates Refined Bullion Manganese Ores and concentrate s Titanium Ilmenite concentrate d Leucoxene concentrate Rutile concentrate Synthetic rutile s Titanium dioxide pigment Nickel s Refined silver Tin c Zinc c Ores and concentrates Refined Zircon concentrate e Total metalliferous minerals and metal Other minerals Diamonds s Salt Other Total other minerals Total resources 2008–09 $m 2009–10 $m 2010–11 $m 2011–12 f 2012–13 f $m $m 206 5 809 4 967 4 151 2 579 10 903 20 511 1 562 757 674 595 1 532 104 23 277 305 375 5 412 187 42 2 031 1 319 421 64 745 625 232 6 169 7 026 71 771 192 6 015 4 724 3 618 2 245 16 146 34 239 1 363 645 560 432 1 406 171 37 335 258 396 2 717 245 70 935 923 540 78 212 676 237 4 778 5 691 83 903 178 4 969 3 838 4 526 1 980 12 996 35 075 1 120 998 425 409 1 395 197 11 382 269 448 3 875 254 101 1 237 977 370 76 031 471 247 5 241 5 959 81 990 229 5 218 4 178 5 130 3 292 13 016 58 387 1 303 1 301 511 248 1 407 198 17 390 315 527 4 096 164 126 1 479 893 532 102 955 366 251 5 995 6 612 109 567 280 5 507 3 839 5 417 3 001 15 558 62 788 983 1 125 490 490 1 176 225 22 252 294 594 3 902 290 98 1 357 906 327 108 920 421 245 6 556 7 222 116 142 249 7 144 3 374 6 259 2 784 19 722 66 936 789 838 369 311 1 229 224 23 270 252 590 4 138 521 103 1 387 945 231 118 687 467 242 7 752 8 461 127 147 Continued 108 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .

h Sum of resources. d Excludes leucoxene and synthetic rutile. b International ships and aircraft stores. International Trade. Sources: BREE. Energy and Tourism.0. e Data refer to standard grade zircon only. Canberra. bunker fuel) Total resources and energy exports Derived as sum of above On balance of payments g Total agricultural exports At current prices On balance of payments g Total commodity exports h Derived as sum of above On balance of payments g 10 484 1 182 5 854 1 457 1 323 16 038 8 365 887 45 591 43 492 117 362 115 904 31 340 29 971 148 702 145 875 2008–09 $m 8 757 1 044 10 079 1 537 788 36 813 17 885 990 77 892 75 660 161 796 160 259 35 905 33 917 197 701 194 176 2009–10 $m 9 534 1 105 7 789 1 315 566 24 526 11 886 757 57 478 55 741 139 468 138 154 32 082 30 476 171 551 168 630 2010–11 $m 11 772 1 068 10 437 1 508 526 29 793 13 956 610 s 69 670 67 695 179 237 177 729 36 079 34 366 215 316 212 095 2011–12 f 2012–13 f $m $m 13 012 1 022 12 392 1 643 684 30 310 17 358 732 s 77 153 74 508 193 295 191 652 38 074 36 036 231 369 227 688 13 319 1 145 16 037 1 886 854 29 682 18 590 799 s 82 312 80 061 209 459 207 573 37 286 35 298 246 745 242 871 a Includes condensate and other refinery feedstock. Department of Resources. Australian Bureau of Statistics. cat. c Value of metals contained in host mine and smelter products are not available separately and are included in the value of the mineral product or metal in which they are exported. g As derived in table 1. data from 1991–92 refer to bulk ilmenite only. energy and agricultural commodity exports. f BREE forecast.Export values 15 Value of commodity exports (fob) Australia continued 2007–08 $m Energy Crude oil a LPG LNG Bunker fuel b Other petroleum products Metallurgical coal Thermal coal Uranium (U3O8) Total energy Derived as sum of above On balance of payments basis (excl. s BREE estimate. 5465. Australia. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 109 . ABARES. no.

no. Sources: BREE.Import values 16 Value of selected commodity imports Australia 2006–07 $m Resources and energy Aluminium (ingot metal) Diamonds Ferroalloys Gold (refined and unrefined) Ingot steel Iron ore Petroleum Crude oil a Natural gas Petroleum products b Phosphate rock Phosphates Silver Other Total resources and energy 11 397 116 5 309 2 479 338 13 360 800 7 784 32 267 98 707 31 698 2007–08 $m 10 444 154 7 311 2 225 311 17 149 724 12 730 80 778 80 483 42 479 2008–09 $m 10 417 181 11 250 3 191 269 14 727 2 166 13 129 193 549 223 794 47 098 2009–10 $m 27 442 118 7 739 1 889 259 15 031 1 219 11 296 10 347 107 1 183 39 666 2010–11 $m 18 397 127 5 426 2 121 417 19 578 1 929 12 050 57 628 490 859 44 097 a Includes condensate and other refinery feedstock. Canberra. International Trade. 110 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . b Includes LPG. 5465. Australia.0. cat. Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Energy and Tourism. class 1 kt Refined. d Includes methane. na Not available. Canberra. b Total metallic content of minerals produced. ethane and coal seam gas. Australian Bureau of Statistics. p Preliminary. e Energy Quest. Canberra. c Metallic content. class 2 kt Petroleum. field Crude oil and condensate e ML LPG (naturally occurring) ML Gas d Mm3 Petroleum. total refinery ML Salt s kt Silver t Mine production bs Refined t Tin t Mine production bs Titanium s Ilmenite concentrate kt Leucoxene concentrate kt Rutile concentrate kt kt Synthetic rutile Titanium dioxide pigment kt Uranium oxide (U3O8) t Zinc kt Mine production bs Refined kt kt Zircon concentrate s 16 541 4 950 480 118 90 na 207 104 108 2 672 65 104 105 206 1 813 172 38 50 1 355 36 15 23 2 7 1 12 9 2 252 025 376 039 936 443 170 4 673 325 37 111 140 51 1 683 385 130 138 a Quarterly data are not available. ABARES. Coal Services Pty Limited. Energy Quest.17 17 Quarterly commodity production quarter 2009–10 Jun Sep 17 504 5 061 488 124 94 16 236 116 120 2 470 68 79 109 077 1 848 186 30 33 1 798 45 14 25 2 7 1 14 9 3 246 122 207 736 091 485 136 4 610 328 43 121 139 51 2 008 368 124 158 2010–11 Dec 17 398 4 843 488 113 89 16 244 119 123 2 283 68 90 115 720 1 887 207 36 57 1 698 49 20 18 3 6 402 948 13 117 9 527 3 091 491 174 4 600 326 48 112 141 51 2 209 391 126 156 Mar 16 431 4 471 476 101 77 16 232 108 117 1 667 63 78 104 632 1 867 140 27 49 1 448 48 13 23 2 5 316 913 12 265 9 483 2 885 340 189 4 600 300 53 111 133 51 1 668 337 123 177 Jun 17 189 4 666 486 116 85 16 239 116 125 1 607 66 75 120 586 1 704 164 40 51 1 840 53 14 25 3 5 780 924 13 513 9 646 2 494 476 212 4 600 322 58 122 129 51 1 185 384 125 183 5 1 13 9 3 Sep 18 008 4 726 490 125 93 na 235 105 114 2 335 65 81 127 227 1 753 157 41 42 1 909 53 10 26 4 749 033 193 318 067 428 250 3 100 326 57 127 118 51 2 070 401 126 211 2011–12 Dec 18 349 4 864 493 127 93 na 252 112 121 1 953 64 86 135 450 1 214 160 31 45 1 766 61 16 23 4 5 954 956 12 297 9 647 2 957 481 247 3 100 329 57 114 123 51 2 019 394 133 191 Mar p 17 844 4 866 481 114 s 85 s na 228 115 124 2 840 63 77 126 362 1 212 195 40 54 1 871 57 12 29 4 5 190 908 11 577 9 520 2 544 426 168 1 496 319 57 98 105 51 1 618 389 131 s 164 Australia Quarterly commodity production. saleable Mt Mt Brown as Copper kt Mine production bs kt Blister c kt Refined s Diamonds '000 ct Gold t Mine production bs Refined t Iron Iron ore and concentrate kt kt Iron and steel s Lead kt Mine production bs Bullion c kt Refined kt Manganese s kt Nickel kt Mine production bs Intermediate kt Refined. Queensland Government. raw Mt Black. Australia Aluminium Bauxite kt Alumina kt Aluminium (ingot metal) kt Coal Black. Department of Mines and Energy. s BREE estimate. Sources: BREE. Department of Resources. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 111 .

56 517 282 2 523 922 492 8 81 141 51 1 618 386 196 Australia Quarterly commodity exports.86 212 2 840 86.14 255 2 961 80.95 39.77 469 97 2 802 1 246 527 8 82 136 41 2 019 433 219 Mar p 2 313 4 396 422 34.71 121 289 206 189 1 604 57 4 856 4.98 37.66 219 2 684 78.33 39.59 33.66 36. intermediate products and nickel metal.61 99 026 415 150 906 56 5 548 4.18 18 Quarterly commodity exports.47 30. ABARES.04 213 2 650 68. 112 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .85 536 102 3 081 1 279 433 7 123 131 50 1 701 343 260 Jun 2 663 4 094 392 33. d Includes metal content of ores and concentrates. Canberra.26 208 2 500 77.45 222 2 050 71. concentrates. intermediate products (where applicable) and refined metal.07 117 314 458 168 1 787 56 4 565 4.18 583 152 2 772 1 359 448 7 130 132 44 2 104 357 228 Mar 2 105 3 728 421 27.57 235 2 700 83. black Metallurgical Mt Thermal Mt kt Copper bs '000 ct Diamonds cs t Gold bs Iron Iron ore and pellets kt kt Iron and steel s kt Lead bs Manganese ore and concentrate kt kt Nickel ds Petroleum Crude oil and other refinery feedstock ML Mt LNG s LPG ML Refinery products ML kt Salt s t Tin b Titanium Ilmenite concentrate kt Leucoxene concentrate kt Rutile concentrate kt Synthetic rutile s kt Titanium dioxide pigment kt Uranium oxide (U3O8) s t kt Zinc b Zircon concentrate kt 2 215 4 293 445 43. s BREE estimate.95 794 211 2 714 1 573 428 6 141 131 46 1 918 383 228 2010–11 Dec 1 772 4 141 428 39.59 602 304 2 793 1 244 518 8 85 136 51 2 070 372 237 2011–12 Dec 2 803 4 103 439 37. by volume quarter 2009–10 Jun Sep 2 055 4 264 445 39. by volume. p Preliminary.78 93 737 393 158 1 681 51 4 029 4. Australia Aluminium Bauxite kt kt Alumina a Aluminium (ingot metal) kt Coal. Australian Bureau of Statistics. b Metallic content of all ores.04 36.05 105 499 371 177 1 841 54 4 604 4.10 535 214 2 817 1 432 399 5 166 134 42 1 710 432 171 a Includes aluminium hydroxide. Sources: BREE.52 108 473 263 156 1 419 63 4 753 4.17 41.61 99 650 483 185 1 351 55 5 548 4.17 108 618 605 192 1 761 50 5 456 5.86 220 2 845 98.98 557 294 2 595 1 220 496 8 98 123 53 1 227 411 247 Sep 2 724 4 054 429 35. c Unsorted and sorted.

other than diamonds Gold. refined Tin e Titanium Ilmenite concentrate Leucoxene concentrate Rutile concentrate Synthetic rutile s Titanium dioxide pigment Uranium oxide (U3O8) s Zinc e Zircon concentrate Other mineral resources f Total resources and energy g Total merchandise Total goods and services $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m 60 1 420 1 121 8 482 3 260 1 895 113 9 4 209 13 156 396 539 447 1 048 3 068 2 016 237 158 63 58 28 45 3 116 74 110 161 701 81 1 642 44 721 61 472 74 275 a Includes aluminium hydroxide. b Metallic content of all ores. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 113 . by value (fob) quarter 2009–10 Jun Sep 57 1 296 1 059 8 579 3 856 1 978 106 11 2 897 14 386 315 410 228 1 057 2 937 2 861 300 137 61 49 32 47 3 99 73 124 161 600 101 1 222 45 046 62 620 75 680 2010–11 Dec 44 1 275 1 046 7 649 3 457 2 270 108 10 3 600 14 021 399 616 441 920 2 994 2 480 265 104 63 62 30 49 4 96 77 114 177 551 122 1 513 44 560 61 753 74 749 Mar 59 1 251 1 076 5 417 3 007 2 041 83 17 3 375 13 707 292 501 384 1 131 2 638 2 463 246 78 70 43 31 48 4 94 79 136 157 570 166 1 501 40 667 56 794 69 145 Jun 70 1 397 998 8 147 3 637 2 132 69 11 3 143 16 272 297 532 353 988 3 204 2 633 256 208 58 10 33 55 5 101 85 152 114 651 143 1 703 47 456 65 812 78 264 Sep 74 1 366 1 043 8 836 4 253 2 212 94 10 3 898 17 992 344 522 322 908 3 111 2 951 265 225 63 48 30 57 5 64 78 164 215 567 117 1 879 51 713 70 632 83 186 2011–12 Dec 83 1 306 982 8 706 4 665 2 247 106 8 4 210 16 136 305 625 315 988 3 319 3 036 195 92 63 42 25 58 5 52 73 127 219 633 87 2 015 50 726 69 913 82 660 Mar p 63 1 263 923 6 796 3 985 1 854 103 16 3 127 13 073 135 501 232 1 046 3 258 2 871 263 224 57 57 18 54 6 73 76 154 154 533 60 834 41 809 58 695 71 204 Australia Quarterly commodity exports. intermediate products and nickel metal.19 19 Quarterly commodity exports. Australian Bureau of Statistics. d Includes metal content of ores and concentrates. p Preliminary. Australia Aluminium Bauxite Alumina a Aluminium (ingot metal) Coal. concentrates. intermediate products (where applicable) and refined metal. e Value of all ores. below. refined Iron Iron ore and pellets Iron and steel s Lead e Manganese ore and concentrate Nickel es Petroleum Crude oil and other refinery feedstock LNG LPG Refinery products Salt s Silver. g Total resources and energy exports on an BREE balance of payments basis. c Unsorted and sorted. black Metallurgical Thermal Copper e Diamonds cs Gems. by value (fob). concentrates. and the sum of the above items. f Derived as the difference between total resources and energy exports. intermediate products (where applicable) and refined metal. Canberra. s BREE estimate. ABARES. Sources: BREE.

8 295. Australian Bureau of Statistics. p Preliminary.7 284. b Refined and unrefined bullion. ABARES.2 261.6 321. ABARES. Australian Bureau of Statistics.0 2010–11 Dec 308.6 339.6 Jun 369.1 quarter 2011–12 Mar 331. Australia Quantity Diamonds a Iron ore Ingot steel Ferroalloys Petroleum Crude oil and other refinery feedstock Natural gas Refinery products Phosphate rock Value Diamonds a Gold b Iron ore Ingot steel Ferroalloys Nickel Petroleum Crude oil and other refinery feedstock Natural gas Refinery products Phosphate rock Silver Other Total '000 ct kt kt kt ML kt ML kt $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m 300 1 143 475 25 7 268 773 4 741 0 105 2 492 66 535 33 13 4 115 276 2 876 0 7 383 10 900 a Includes sorted and unsorted. gem and industrial diamonds. Canberra. and diamond dust and powder.5 319.5 Dec 383. p Preliminary.8 288.3 311.8 316. Australia 2009–10 Jun Sep 335.9 301.8 296.2 Mar p 353. Canberra. Sources: BREE.4 348.5 301.1 296. Sources: BREE.4 Sep 389.5 a Base: 1994-95 = 100.20 20 Quarterly resources and energy export unit returns a Australia Quarterly resources and energy export unit returns.3 Energy Metals and other minerals Total resources and energy 318.4 330. 114 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .8 320. 21 21 Quarterly commodity imports quarter 2009–10 Jun Sep 334 1 476 597 25 7 684 1 261 4 317 146 106 1 292 86 645 40 15 4 221 576 2 463 21 23 382 9 870 2010–11 Dec 565 1 860 433 18 7 949 1 218 4 909 122 108 1 677 143 492 35 11 4 423 512 2 831 16 103 314 10 666 Mar 156 818 401 12 8 060 1 179 4 317 13 94 1 182 86 471 24 49 5 195 427 2 915 1 111 483 11 039 Jun 133 1 288 437 14 8 073 1 140 5 219 126 90 1 275 102 514 28 47 5 739 413 3 841 19 254 383 12 703 Sep 259 1 555 445 15 7 184 1 226 5 646 80 101 1 822 100 544 28 54 4 963 594 3 936 15 572 420 13 150 2011–12 Dec 151 1 314 433 14 7 269 1 089 6 180 169 107 2 043 62 521 27 39 5 173 561 4 535 29 187 586 13 871 Mar p 107 841 492 23 7 878 1 144 5 085 10 101 1 507 29 533 26 48 5 651 595 4 048 1 93 378 13 011 Australia Quarterly commodity imports.

0 323.9 57.2 849.6 22.4 54.2 1 742.7 na 73.3 497.3 154.1 70.3 658.6 147.2 2 217.6 101.1 6.4 919.7 45.8 1 574.2 214. ABARES.9 849.2 67.0 49.1 321.9 0.9 4 049.3 1 037.8 98.2 169.1 3 984.2 612.6 2 745.7 897.0 43.3 5 726.3 618.8 11.0 1 763.7 213.7 46.7 na 71.4 524.9 na 184.2 227. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 115 .2 669.4 163.9 766.1 109.1 1 756.4 662.0 177.0 311.22 22 Total Coal Uranium Quarterly private resources and energy exploration expenditure quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar Australia Quarterly private resources and energy exploration expenditure.2 234.7 702.4 519.0 na 270.7 6 266.2 536.9 9.5 196.2 186.6 146.3 64.1 Total energy Metals and other minerals Copper Diamonds Gold Iron ore Mineral sands Nickel. na Not available.1 na 652.2 665. Australia Energy Petroleum Onshore Offshore $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m 748.3 202.3 1 472.6 19. Australian Bureau of Statistics.7 206.6 278.7 248.3 802.6 2.0 153.5 na 178.2 38.1 1 416. lead and zinc Other Total metals and other minerals Total expenditure p Preliminary.7 na 575.4 201.5 3 494.7 44.6 1 098.8 na 167.1 na 203.6 43.5 29.3 769.4 18.3 65.9 596.1 21.4 643.9 3 315.0 217.9 51.2 na 62.2 200.8 267.3 22.7 1.0 1 061. cobalt Silver. Sources: BREE.6 18.1 432.5 2 558.1 168.6 108.1 1 929.3 114.8 60.0 62.4 144.9 75.7 756.6 1 160. Canberra.2 81.6 780.6 531.6 122.

97 338.75 62.27 078.75 1 371.60 Gold London AM fix US$/oz 873.54 2011 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2012 January February March 2 137.00 51.32 103.87 101.11 911.93 114.43 320.50 138.89 210.23 107.93 101.37 964.35 106. d London fix rate from May 2001.59 108.89 25 28 26 26 24 22 23 22 20 18 17 18 646.66 945.00 US$/t 4 918.00 51.53 759.45 1 973.19 194.55 211.53 465.35 235.48 357.50 304.11 137.28 011. 116 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .77 338.59 662.69 8 457.05 011.10 1 675.40 132.20 Resources and energy prices Alumina avg export unit value A$/t 366.71 032. Canberra.69 306. London Metal Exchange.77 2 126.87 Nickel LME cash US$/t 13 322.43 619. na Not available.88 196.05 215.25 51.31 422.51 Zinc (high grade) LME cash US$/t 1 403.00 354.57 Rutile e Zircon g avg export avg export unit value unit value A$/t 609. Australian Bureau of Statistics.63 945.92 344.15 89.50 54.12 185.00 69. c Average of weekly restricted spot price published by The Ux Consulting Company.37 281.79 110.25 859.51 96.00 579.96 143.15 518.12 2 061.91 335.03 045.03 244.92 114.91 251.31 106.18 041.88 2 184.92 252.92 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 439.75 8 422.14 916. s BREE estimate.04 19 390. Energy Information Administration.75 948.82 2 242.86 127.85 474.66 206.86 3 414.56 146.39 321.53 508.13 552.48 187.06 103.65 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 555.09 731.95 212.10 1 743. Handy and Harman.82 886.10 124.79 108.82 300.46 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 022.37 97.00 52.43 97.25 43.09 96.93 494. g Bagged only after September 1999.17 102.05 2 089.05 170.23 2 203.19 551.71 110.45 104.13 98.18 682.81 57.25 076.39 3 076.35 581.13 1 688.60 401.06 675. b US Department of Energy.46 Aluminium (high grade) LME cash US$/t 1 867.33 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 A$/t 788.58 118.83 116.51 89.53 102.59 2 058.06 Lead LME cash US$/t 1 458.19 528.49 102.07 2 880.28 96.16 a Lump and fines.50 775.75 52.34 Silver d London fix USc/troy oz 1 289.05 3 295.07 928.37 113.99 1 091.25 252.14 86.51 125.55 2 093.64 793.20 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 841.47 172.13 73.43 882.18 496.25 23 962.11 2 392.84 116.61 204.52 114.27 119.71 586.65 624.90 969.90 298.34 85.9 per cent prior to May 2001.20 99.84 702.42 109.22 2 695.19 927.14 426. ABARES.65 483.36 160. The Ux Consulting Company.79 111.45 99.55 247.66 2 016.65 586.00 18 635.80 108.28 324.91 330.10 349.50 55.20 741.77 119.44 251.91 109.35 129.86 6 691.74 328.64 137.98 948.95 122.00 52.75 51.81 283.24 372.57 982.50 57.43 858.59 2 349.93 109.44 122.40 Copper Uranium c Industry (high grade) spot price LME cash US$/lb 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2012 January February March 51.43 512.00 96.71 20 465.06 97.67 582.40 97. London Bullion Market Association.76 Brent spot price US$/bbl 68.10 308. commercial bar.23 664.55 530.70 135.48 371. minimum 99.50 791.77 565.39 334.88 347.61 86.59 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 360. Sources: BREE.13 248.35 542.29 89.24 113.73 Iron ore a avg export unit value A$/t 105.96 408.90 867.27 114.81 551.70 555.57 2 202.94 155.98 391.77 203.15 A$/t 293.20 2 468.31 370.61 409.43 230.32 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 601.31 512.60 334.29 75.60 331.46 121.48 390.24 2 459.23 23 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 Resources and energy prices Australia Thermal Metallurgical coal coal avg export avg export unit value unit value A$/t 131.85 668.07 226.16 88.25 2 065.70 494.83 89.64 344. e Bagged only after August 1999.54 322.75 74.38 568.99 258.78 340. US Department of Energy.35 194.26 2 382.41 511.53 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 371.50 52.10 112.33 107.19 073.13 8 670.78 223.32 19 800.15 347.80 1 656.24 038.34 370.19 068.09 296.55 018.21 2 035.24 Crude oil b West Texas Intermediate spot price US$/bbl 70.14 2 277.08 735.50 49.98 652.41 416.81 100.10 636.00 811.

d High grade. Canberra. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 117 . Rep. ABARES.24 24 Aluminium Aluminium quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine Bauxite Queensland Western Australia s Northern Territory Australia s Alumina content s Smelter and refinery Alumina Aluminium (ingot metal) Quantity Bauxite Alumina ab Aluminium (ingot metal) Chinese Taipei Indonesia Japan Korea. b Country details confidential. c Average export unit value. Sources: BREE. p Preliminary. of Malaysia Thailand Other Total Value Bauxite Alumina ab Aluminium (ingot metal) Quantity Bauxite Alumina ab Aluminium (ingot metal) Value Bauxite Alumina a Aluminium (ingot metal) Alumina c Aluminium LME cash d Australia c Production kt kt kt kt kt kt kt 17 707 42 899 7 204 67 810 25 282 20 056 1 920 19 504 42 340 6 677 68 521 26 039 19 041 1 938 4 813 10 864 1 721 17 398 6 567 4 843 488 4 668 10 098 1 665 16 431 6 257 4 471 476 5 061 10 578 1 550 17 189 6 552 4 666 486 5 403 10 745 1 860 18 008 6 935 4 726 490 5 600 10 833 1 916 18 349 7 089 4 864 493 4 974 11 008 1 862 17 844 6 774 4 866 481 Exports kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt $m $m $m 8 023 16 653 191 102 549 333 99 162 188 1 624 178 4 969 3 838 8 595 16 227 210 104 569 352 79 130 241 1 686 229 5 218 4 178 1 772 4 141 51 20 153 100 19 30 55 428 44 1 275 1 046 2 105 3 728 51 34 128 87 18 30 72 421 59 1 251 1 076 2 663 4 094 55 29 125 78 16 33 55 392 70 1 397 998 2 724 4 054 41 31 153 77 22 40 65 429 74 1 366 1 043 2 803 4 103 55 33 164 64 16 32 76 439 83 1 306 982 2 313 4 396 37 36 134 61 19 30 106 422 63 1 263 923 Imports kt kt kt $m $m $m A$/t US$/t A$/t 4 10 12 2 12 27 298 2 016 2 363 7 13 6 4 14 18 322 2 383 2 478 2 4 2 1 4 4 308 2 343 2 443 2 2 1 1 3 4 335 2 503 2 556 1 3 2 1 3 5 341 2 597 2 547 2 2 4 1 3 10 337 2 419 2 433 2 2 5 1 2 12 318 2 088 2 235 2 2 3 1 4 7 287 2 175 2 188 Prices a Includes aluminium hydroxide. Australian Bureau of Statistics. London Metal Exchange. s BREE estimate.

19 22.00 2.15 93.37 1.96 1.15 93.76 1.90 36.25 2.03 na 26.73 1.56 7.47 60.96 0.48 1.27 s 100.61 1.25 33.05 5.66 0.33 5.84 0.24 4.55 0.64 466.87 274.85 6.21 21.90 1.39 4.75 2.97 0.45 17.37 15.25 0.75 11.80 0.37 61.15 76.60 0.09 16.00 0.38 40.24 3.81 0.11 3.15 84.20 4.00 5.80 85.61 8. Rep.40 s 91.42 24.43 1.59 21.64 2.66 3.30 38.00 3.10 52.43 17.39 3.95 179.57 16.16 114.39 4.95 1.67 7.41 24.68 50. other c European Union 27 India Japan Other Total Total metallurgical coal Thermal coal Chinese Taipei European Union 27 China Japan Korea.25 39.21 11.75 s 1.62 57.67 66.72 s na Exports Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 2.67 47.41 s 40.50 s 1.11 268. raw Underground Opencut New South Wales Queensland Western Australia a South Australia a Tasmania a Australia Black coal.92 66.54 68.85 140.28 13.89 36.13 77.00 5.87 22.84 23.71 37.72 8.42 25.75 106.10 1.54 s 1.64 4.29 15.07 6.77 1.58 38.96 0.62 362.64 4.77 16.96 0.53 2.05 5.90 204.30 1.30 0.44 76.90 20.95 0. Rep.14 73.64 453.54 346.09 190.40 8.25 5.85 239.14 0.98 2.35 0.89 87.94 s 40.62 344.88 9.19 27.12 5.88 44.25 6.69 8.51 67.96 0.80 355.66 147.04 4.84 0.84 0.09 5.90 134.25 25.52 45.25 0.85 0.67 1.37 41.89 4.89 4.96 0.59 s 1.00 0.42 0.28 1.34 35.72 2.90 143.64 1.25 0.25 0.84 0.15 88.39 na 23.82 5.25 5.96 0.00 0. high quality Brazil China Chinese Taipei European Union 27 India Japan Korea.98 4.85 18.96 0.62 263.51 26.00 1.12 48.26 0.93 6.06 91.57 1.21 28.00 3.45 16.17 6.54 4.93 35. of Other Total Production Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 111.05 1.30 23.98 5.14 16.72 19.00 0.45 0.53 17.42 8.15 0.57 0.99 15.15 85.07 6.98 11. saleable Underground Opencut New South Wales Queensland Western Australia a South Australia a Tasmania a Australia Brown coal b Victoria Quantity Metallurgical coal.90 0.54 24.25 25 Coal Coal quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine Black coal.89 43.30 204.27 1.49 1.25 0.69 156.47 3.42 12.40 59.96 0.68 3.85 5.95 30.56 1.19 68.07 3.85 2.16 112.78 s 67.96 0.71 99.19 23.06 37.22 19.51 56.16 125.79 0.32 0.00 6.12 0.96 0.14 4.84 0.80 65.00 2.25 1.26 19.40 51.06 15.00 0.56 17.40 6.74 7.47 6.60 1.49 s 16.54 9.53 59.42 18.79 6.10 3.29 4.23 7.08 12.38 39.46 0.42 23.99 0.16 100.58 s 53.30 13.17 4. of Other Total Metallurgical coal.85 34.74 70.25 0.07 42.86 continued 118 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .71 3.11 3.96 0.12 4.91 1.16 10.03 6.96 28.37 5.52 3.52 5.74 3.66 27.12 24.55 7.53 2.78 50.53 97.94 1.55 157.49 13.46 47.00 0.79 1.81 16.45 1.32 27.00 0.13 26.13 91.16 126.35 1.84 5.09 s 52.00 4.96 0.41 1.98 s 74.36 66.16 115.46 20.

ABARES. d Quantity details for coke not available. Department of Mines and Energy.02 0.25 25 Coal continued Coal continued quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Quantity d Other coal Value Metallurgical coal High quality Other quality Total metallurgical coal Thermal coal Other coal Total coal Coke Metallurgical coal High quality Other quality Thermal coal Exports Mt 0.37 88. Chinese Taipei.25 0.06 97.93 194. of Korea.39 215.78 272.14 0.69 108. Canberra.15 0. Peoples Rep. e Average export unit value. b Quarterly data not available.01 216. Sources: BREE.63 207. Australian Bureau of Statistics.35 99. Dem.09 92.10 a Quarterly data derived from annual BREE estimates. Italy. Coal Services Pty Limited. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 119 .03 107.59 125.06 230.20 $m $m $m $m $m $m $m 17 060 7 465 24 526 11 886 35 36 447 100 21 143 8 650 29 793 13 956 106 43 854 177 5 520 2 129 7 649 3 457 47 11 153 44 3 721 1 697 5 417 3 007 4 8 428 52 5 810 2 337 8 147 3 637 28 11 812 40 6 545 2 291 8 836 4 253 26 13 115 86 6 237 2 470 8 706 4 665 37 13 408 69 4 705 2 091 6 796 3 985 27 10 808 53 Prices e A$/t A$/t A$/t 174. na Not available.93 164.21 254.74 162.80 202.69 99. c Country details confidential for various time periods for Brazil. p Preliminary.81 177.52 159. Queensland Government. s BREE estimate.36 0.37 0.37 207.76 0. Pakistan and Republic of Korea–commencing from October 1996.36 113.35 266.

Sources: BREE. midday. 120 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . e Based on LME cash. refined copper. ABARES. of Philippines Other Total Refined copper China c Chinese Taipei Germany Indonesia Japan Korea. p Preliminary. of Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam Other Total Copper content of all primary materials exported ds Value Copper concentrate Refined copper Total LME cash Australia kt kt kt Production 3 073 155 248 158 228 29 819 381 395 3 507 158 306 156 305 26 952 459 485 917 37 82 44 75 6 244 119 123 856 42 70 35 79 6 232 108 117 846 43 75 35 80 6 239 116 125 902 46 81 32 69 6 235 105 114 901 46 75 38 84 8 252 112 121 833 39 66 37 78 8 228 115 124 Exports kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt $m $m $m 612 609 371 211 88 38 1 928 119 45 0 12 1 15 39 0 10 25 6 271 805 4 526 1 980 6 506 6 691 7 553 566 560 303 205 83 33 1 750 121 54 0 24 10 26 74 4 20 28 14 375 877 5 130 3 292 8 422 8 671 8 752 147 130 65 78 58 11 490 35 15 0 5 0 4 19 1 4 9 3 96 235 1 429 841 2 270 8 637 8 727 130 142 80 44 0 10 407 31 9 0 5 2 14 16 3 4 4 3 90 208 1 176 865 2 041 9 651 9 620 180 116 77 42 6 11 431 19 19 0 6 8 4 21 0 5 6 4 92 222 1 330 802 2 132 9 152 8 649 172 131 122 34 0 6 466 35 15 0 8 0 0 20 0 5 4 2 89 219 1 480 733 2 212 9 120 8 658 147 164 91 80 9 11 503 51 13 0 7 1 1 20 0 5 3 3 105 255 1 454 793 2 247 7 485 7 407 163 119 56 29 0 20 386 37 11 0 6 0 0 23 1 13 6 1 97 212 1 116 738 1 854 8 301 7 869 Prices e US$/t A$/t a Includes copper cathode and copper precipitate. Rep. 25 tonne warrants. copper powder and flakes. slags. Rep. Australian Bureau of Statistics. high grade. s BREE estimate.26 26 Copper Copper quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine s Copper ore and concentrate kt Copper content of all minerals produced kt New South Wales a kt Queensland a kt Western Australia a South Australia kt Tasmania kt Australia a Smelter and refinery Blister copper (primary) b Refined copper (primary) s Quantity Copper concentrate China c India Japan Korea. b Copper content. d Copper content of all ores and concentrates. Canberra. residues. c Excludes Hong Kong. intermediate products. London Metal Exchange.

powder and unsorted diamonds. p Preliminary. b Includes cut and polished sapphires from 1 July 2000. s BREE estimate. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 121 . Canberra. Sources: BREE. ABARES. Australian Bureau of Statistics.27 27 Diamonds and other gemstones Diamonds and other gemstones quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Diamonds Northern Territory Western Australia Australia Quantity Diamonds Unsorted s Sorted Gem Industrial a Total s Value Diamonds Unsorted s Sorted Gem Industrial a Total s Opals Rough Cut and polished Total Sapphires Rough Total Other gemstones b Total gemstones Quantity Diamonds Unsorted Sorted Gem Industrial a Dust and powder Value Diamonds Unsorted Sorted Gem Industrial a Dust and powder Total Production '000 ct '000 ct '000 ct 7 11 131 11 138 0 8 027 8 027 0 2 283 2 283 0 1 667 1 667 0 1 607 1 607 0 2 335 2 335 0 1 953 1 953 0 2 840 2 840 Exports '000 ct '000 ct '000 ct '000 ct 10 299 56 0 10 355 9 810 90 0 9 900 2 678 22 0 2 700 2 484 16 0 2 500 2 020 30 0 2 050 2 668 16 0 2 684 2 938 24 0 2 961 2 829 11 0 2 840 $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m 294 176 1 471 6 28 33 1 1 5 40 225 141 0 366 6 35 41 1 1 8 49 61 47 0 108 2 7 9 0 0 2 10 53 31 0 83 2 12 14 0 0 3 17 41 28 0 69 1 9 9 0 0 2 11 61 33 0 94 2 7 9 0 0 1 10 67 39 0 106 1 6 6 0 0 1 8 75 29 0 103 0 13 14 0 0 2 16 Imports '000 ct '000 ct '000 ct '000 ct 0 317 2 705 2 282 1 904 2 77 0 487 0 66 0 90 0 61 0 72 0 73 47 138 1 63 8 79 0 66 4 36 $m $m $m $m $m 0 438 3 1 442 0 394 2 1 397 0 107 1 0 108 0 93 0 0 94 0 89 0 0 90 0 100 1 0 101 0 106 0 0 107 0 101 0 0 101 a Excludes dust.

Sources: BREE. China India Middle East United Arab Emirates Singapore Switzerland Thailand United Kingdom Other Total Value Refined Value Refined and unrefined bullion London AM fix Australia t Production 28 7 15 166 10 4 8 240 30 6 16 183 16 4 11 265 8 1 4 48 4 1 3 68 7 1 4 44 4 1 3 63 8 1 4 45 4 1 2 66 8 2 4 45 3 1 2 65 7 1 4 45 3 1 2 64 6 1 4 45 3 1 3 63 t t t t t 194 69 3 90 356 210 71 4 36 321 55 19 1 16 90 52 18 1 7 78 50 17 1 7 75 51 15 1 13 81 51 17 1 17 86 51 14 1 11 77 Exports t t t t t t t t t t $m 1 188 0 0 5 0 35 101 4 335 12 996 14 98 0 0 25 0 56 80 9 301 13 016 6 23 0 0 1 0 8 38 2 83 3 600 1 29 0 0 5 0 22 7 5 78 3 375 3 27 0 0 8 0 12 20 1 71 3 143 2 17 0 0 10 0 16 25 7 78 3 898 0 14 0 0 3 0 8 35 5 81 4 210 1 20 0 0 4 0 5 14 1 62 3 127 Imports Prices $m 7 739 1 092 1 236 5 426 1 372 1 389 1 677 1 369 1 391 1 182 1 385 1 382 1 275 1 505 1 425 1 822 1 701 1 626 2 043 1 686 1 666 1 507 1 691 1 602 US$/oz A$/oz p Preliminary. 122 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Australian Bureau of Statistics. s BREE estimate. Canberra.28 28 Gold Gold quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine s Gold content of all minerals produced New South Wales t Victoria t Queensland t Western Australia t South Australia t Tasmania t Northern Territory t Australia Refinery Primary Australian origin Overseas origin Secondary Australian origin Overseas origin Total Quantity Refined and unrefined bullion Hong Kong. London Bullion Market Association. ABARES.

b Includes recovery from scrap. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 123 . Sources: BREE. Canberra. per dry metric tonne unit. sinters and briquettes Fines Lump and run of mine Total Steel Iron and steel s Scrap Total Quantity Iron ore d Iron and steel Ferroalloys Value Iron ore d Iron and steel Ferroalloys Total Japanese negotiated e Production kt kt kt kt kt kt kt 410 8 2 2 423 256 6 206 275 360 552 393 567 886 436 9 1 2 450 273 7 296 868 840 011 014 510 305 112 212 2 622 442 443 115 720 71 746 1 887 101 701 2 285 319 327 104 632 64 695 1 867 116 793 2 611 521 661 120 586 69 738 1 704 123 579 2 541 506 600 127 227 70 269 1 753 131 613 2 754 632 450 135 450 72 297 1 214 122 442 2 959 s 512 450 s 126 362 69 178 1 212 Exports kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt $m $m $m $m $m $m $m 071 723 078 565 745 576 384 405 197 389 872 242 189 1 549 1 606 210 23 988 10 318 35 075 1 120 624 1 744 2 281 106 265 10 1 75 36 1 300 104 279 12 72 41 406 252 634 734 508 355 613 986 893 029 4 880 473 79 28 77 3 18 9 108 67 584 965 069 138 070 341 556 513 0 618 415 605 438 69 24 62 2 17 10 93 58 118 302 318 280 775 153 904 625 – 0 737 159 393 323 78 26 73 3 17 11 105 65 421 415 664 301 195 327 582 093 0 499 446 371 455 89 27 81 3 20 12 117 72 463 332 519 033 353 161 730 038 0 314 690 458 411 91 29 88 2 18 11 121 75 393 382 514 635 783 313 440 065 53 289 191 206 573 81 26 78 2 16 10 108 67 879 419 175 181 830 158 327 926 50 473 268 263 668 1 785 1 575 260 37 297 16 647 58 387 1 303 769 2 072 83 9 055 4 038 14 021 399 204 603 18 9 212 3 917 13 707 292 162 454 78 9 652 4 562 16 272 297 226 523 84 10 264 4 648 17 992 344 204 548 75 9 800 4 333 16 136 305 275 580 135 9 129 3 433 13 073 135 248 383 Imports kt kt kt $m $m $m $m USc/dmtu 5 094 1 736 71 259 1 889 118 2 265 179.18 841 492 23 29 533 26 588 212. Australian Bureau of Statistics. d Includes limonite ore used in the production of refined nickel products. for Japanese fiscal year commencing 1 April. ABARES. Rep.60 1 314 433 14 62 521 27 610 211. e Indicative price: Australian hematite fines to Japan (fob).29 29 Iron Iron quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Iron ore and concentrate a Western Australia South Australia Tasmania s Northern Territory Australia s Iron content s Iron and steel bs Quantity Iron ore and pellets Pellets. sinters and briquettes Fines Lump and run of mine China c Chinese Taipei European Union 27 Japan Korea. p Preliminary.28 1 555 445 15 100 544 28 672 248.66 Prices a For use in iron and steel making. includes pellets for Tasmania.62 1 288 437 14 102 514 28 643 248. of Other Total iron ore and pellets Iron content Steel Iron and steel s Scrap Value Iron ore and pellets Pellets. c Excludes Hong Kong.65 5 442 1 867 69 417 2 121 127 2 665 230.97 818 401 12 86 471 24 581 183.18 1 860 433 18 143 492 35 671 163. s BREE estimate.

slags. d Based on LME cash. c Lead content of all ores. 99. mainly silver. midday. standard grade. e Pasminco Metals. of Other Total Lead bullion b United Kingdom Total Refined lead China Chinese Taipei India Indonesia Korea. and refined lead. p Preliminary. Canberra. of Malaysia South Africa Thailand Vietnam Other Total Lead content of all primary materials exported cs Value Lead concentrate Lead bullion Refined lead Total LME cash d Australia e kt Production 880 77 436 32 10 26 36 617 189 21 934 77 470 78 7 29 35 697 190 28 264 19 134 35 2 8 9 207 57 9 195 17 97 9 2 6 9 140 49 6 234 22 121 2 2 8 9 164 51 5 218 20 110 4 2 11 11 157 42 5 233 18 117 2 2 11 10 160 45 5 272 21 142 2 3 10 16 195 54 6 Exports kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt $m $m $m $m US$/t A$/t 224 62 65 124 16 491 151 151 6 9 40 9 48 15 11 11 21 16 186 658 998 409 425 1 833 2 093 2 656 247 53 67 111 17 494 93 93 13 5 35 5 32 64 9 16 20 15 213 676 1 301 248 511 2 059 2 392 2 635 95 14 16 32 3 159 37 37 3 0 7 2 8 13 2 5 6 4 50 192 396 101 120 616 2 380 2 642 26 12 17 39 1 95 20 20 2 2 9 1 9 30 3 2 3 3 64 158 288 51 161 501 2 605 2 776 36 11 17 39 12 116 12 12 1 2 11 1 9 16 3 6 5 5 58 177 359 30 143 532 2 550 2 718 33 0 17 22 0 73 39 39 1 2 8 1 9 34 2 4 3 7 70 168 215 138 169 522 2 458 2 617 54 16 22 43 11 145 29 29 0 1 8 1 12 23 2 3 3 5 58 189 389 109 128 625 1 981 2 293 24 22 11 32 0 88 46 46 0 2 8 0 8 11 3 2 4 3 43 156 255 161 85 501 2 109 2 231 Prices a Includes lead content of lead alloys from primary sources.97–99. London Metal Exchange. Rep. Sources: BREE. minimum 25 tonne warrants. 124 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . concentrates. residues. na Not available. Rep.30 30 Lead Lead quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine s Lead ore and concentrates kt Lead content of all minerals produced New South Wales kt Queensland kt Western Australia kt South Australia kt Tasmania kt Northern Territory kt Australia kt Smelter and refinery kt Refined lead (primary) a Domestic despatches Refined lead Quantity Lead concentrate China European Union 27 Japan Korea.99 per cent. ABARES. b Includes a substantial precious metal content. Australian Bureau of Statistics. s BREE estimate. fob/for Port Pirie. bullion.

33 598.00 533. ABARES.66 Prices a Indicative price: high grade ore (48 – 50 per cent Mn) to Japan for Japanese fiscal year commencing 1 April. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 125 . Australian Bureau of Statistics.00 697. s BREE estimate.31 31 Manganese Manganese quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Manganese ore and concentrate Western Australia s Northern Territory Australia s Manganese content s Quantity Manganese ore and concentrate Value Manganese ore and concentrate Japanese negotiated a Production kt kt kt kt 1 629 4 166 5 795 2 365 1 786 4 997 6 784 2 756 415 1 283 1 698 687 435 1 013 1 448 594 551 1 290 1 840 754 570 1 339 1 909 783 544 1 222 1 766 726 525 1 346 1 871 764 Exports kt $m US$/t A$/t 5 648 1 395 544.81 1 761 441 725.00 438.67 1 604 315 540.68 6 190 1 407 767.72 1 419 232 463.90 616.00 736.00 514. Canberra. p Preliminary.19 1 681 384 700.59 1 787 322 540.65 1 841 353 633.97 777. Sources: BREE.

d Includes metal content of ores and concentrates. Sources: BREE. class 1 b Refined nickel.32 32 Nickel Nickel quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine Nickel content Western Australia Tasmania Australia Smelter and refinery Intermediate nickel Refined nickel. London Metal Exchange. pellets. b Products with a nickel content of 99 per cent or more. matte. class 2 c Total Value Primary nickel products f LME cash g Production as kt kt kt kt kt kt 157 0 157 43 114 6 195 0 195 60 90 10 49 0 49 20 18 3 48 0 48 13 23 2 53 0 53 14 25 3 53 0 53 10 26 4 61 0 61 16 23 4 57 0 57 12 29 4 Exports kt $m $m $m $m $m 221 704 776 2 285 110 3 875 210 859 960 2 093 184 4 096 50 107 295 478 40 920 51 282 272 532 45 1 131 54 254 165 517 53 988 56 145 164 541 58 908 57 328 150 466 44 988 63 243 212 538 53 1 046 Imports Prices $m US$/t A$/t 182 19 390 21 916 279 23 963 24 273 64 23 598 23 949 68 26 899 26 824 84 24 165 22 872 95 22 047 20 946 76 18 306 18 094 68 19 603 18 581 a Details of production of nickel metal. Australian Bureau of Statistics. intermediate products and nickel metal. 126 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Canberra. oxide. s BREE estimate. unwrought nickel metal and alloys and scrap.8 per cent. c Products with a nickel content of less than 99. Includes electrolytic nickel. class 2 c Quantity Nickel d Value Ores and concentrates Intermediate products e Refined nickel. Also includes value of limonite ore used in the production of refined nickel products. g Average cash settlement price for melting grade refined nickel. sinter and nickel–cobalt sulphide are not available. Includes ferronickel. sinter and intermediate products. ferronickel. briquettes and powder. nickel oxides and oxide sinter. e Includes matte and speiss for further refining. f Includes matte. class 1 b Refined nickel. p Preliminary. ABARES.

33 33 Petroleum Petroleum quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Field Crude oil d Condensate d Total d Production rate d LPG Methane Ethane Coal seam gas Refinery Refinery input Refinery output LPG Automotive gasoline Aviation gasoline Aviation turbine fuel Kerosine Heating oil Automotive diesel oil Industrial and marine diesel fuel Fuel oil (excl. refinery fuel) Lubricating oil basestock Bitumen Other products Total Sales LPG Automotive use b Total Automotive gasoline Premium unleaded Regular unleaded Other unleaded Total Aviation gasoline Aviation turbine fuel Kerosine Heating oil Automotive diesel oil Industrial and marine diesel fuel Fuel oil Lubricating oil and greases Bitumen Other products Total Production ML ML ML '000 bbl/day ML Mm3 Mm3 Mm3 ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML 16 638 8 945 25 583 442 4 097 44 712 311 5 100 37 681 1 204 16 771 104 5 341 0 35 11 720 3 846 74 690 412 37 200 16 115 8 630 24 745 428 3 907 46 851 295 5 957 39 871 1 467 16 643 91 5 448 0 16 12 858 0 952 64 476 377 38 393 4 224 2 178 6 402 443 948 11 563 64 1 490 10 044 349 4 158 22 1 347 – 0 3 3 153 0 264 27 133 71 9 527 3 330 1 986 5 316 367 913 10 809 65 1 391 9 926 372 4 011 20 1 363 0 3 3 219 0 251 11 137 96 9 483 3 731 2 049 5 780 400 924 11 932 80 1 501 10 235 371 4 159 25 1 380 0 2 3 225 0 235 2 135 112 9 646 3 691 2 058 5 749 397 1 033 11 562 103 1 529 9 862 304 4 098 24 1 414 0 3 3 084 0 223 – 2 109 63 9 318 3 949 2 005 5 954 412 956 10 676 96 1 526 9 479 292 3 824 26 1 362 na 6 3 242 0 228 – 2 132 84 9 647 3 339 1 851 5 190 359 908 9 867 75 1 636 9 894 330 3 773 25 1 426 na 2 3 168 0 243 0 98 77 9 520 ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML 2 083 3 795 1 843 12 773 4 028 18 644 80 6 675 29 7 19 044 26 982 458 814 376 50 929 2 022 3 936 2 247 11 388 5 090 18 725 79 7 068 27 5 20 054 7 757 430 719 289 52 095 523 965 587 2 969 1 348 4 905 19 1 777 5 2 5 061 3 176 107 183 74 13 276 477 907 572 2 791 1 268 4 632 18 1 756 13 1 4 823 1 208 104 196 65 12 724 491 1 011 559 2 754 1 221 4 534 20 1 768 5 1 5 335 0 201 108 194 68 13 244 504 989 589 2 810 1 262 4 662 21 1 845 4 0 5 397 0 223 88 148 66 13 443 485 890 628 2 890 1 264 4 781 21 1 852 3 0 5 511 0 245 87 204 66 13 663 468 866 630 2 837 1 244 4 711 20 1 824 3 2 5 167 0 276 83 194 79 13 225 continued Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 127 .

18 583 38 10 7 41 7 39 12 152 496 65 8 569 717 18 396 839 2 784 0 1 274 4 029 4. of ML New Zealand ML Singapore ML United States ML Other ML Total LNG s LPG Refinery products Automotive gasoline Aviation turbine fuel Diesel fuel c Fuel oil Aviation gasoline Lubricants Other products Total Ships' and aircraft stores Aviation turbine fuel Fuel oil Other products Total Value Crude oil and other refinery feedstock LNG LPG Refinery products Automotive gasoline Aviation turbine fuel Diesel fuel c Fuel oil Aviation gasoline Lubricants Other products Total Total Ships' and aircraft stores Aviation turbine fuel Fuel oil Other products Total ML Mt ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML ML Exports 2 185 261 1 931 3 710 235 3 838 622 5 283 18 064 17.59 602 117 1 42 60 6 76 2 304 496 65 18 579 1 158 16 540 606 1 1 230 263 1 041 4 856 4.33 33 Petroleum continued Petroleum continued quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Quantity Crude oil and other refinery feedstock China ML Chinese Taipei ML Japan ML Korea. Rep.98 557 78 0 71 65 3 78 – 1 294 496 65 15 576 1 206 15 243 392 1 713 101 1 894 4 565 4.87 2 776 222 72 187 109 32 212 16 850 1 985 260 41 2 285 3 632 266 2 002 3 794 56 2 649 189 7 050 19 638 19.85 536 0 0 33 20 4 43 2 102 496 65 9 570 1 046 129 571 365 1 644 0 1 848 4 604 4.56 517 21 4 70 90 9 88 1 282 496 68 3 566 $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m 9 534 7 789 1 105 138 41 131 54 30 151 22 566 18 994 1 135 140 40 1 315 11 772 10 437 1 068 120 8 94 99 22 154 29 526 23 652 1 313 157 38 1 508 2 994 2 480 265 24 7 5 18 7 32 11 104 5 843 326 38 8 372 2 638 2 463 246 0 0 27 11 5 30 5 78 5 424 329 40 9 377 3 204 2 633 256 57 0 56 38 4 50 2 208 6 301 337 42 16 395 3 111 2 951 265 84 0 39 35 6 59 1 225 6 551 337 42 19 398 3 319 3 036 195 0 0 7 25 12 36 11 92 6 642 341 44 8 393 3 258 2 871 263 15 3 57 58 9 76 5 224 6 044 344 48 4 396 continued 128 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 .77 469 0 1 6 40 11 34 5 97 496 65 7 568 948 266 533 511 3 636 0 1 855 4 753 4.96 2 471 175 12 117 194 20 223 19 760 1 985 259 38 2 282 902 15 730 1 484 1 477 0 1 847 5 456 5.

b This is a minimum level and includes only direct sales by the oil industry. Australian Bureau of Statistics. d Energy Quest. Energy and Tourism.00 100. Energy Quest.79 86. that are subsequently used or sold for automotive use.27 116.90 118. Energy Information Administration.41 105.00 102.42 19 578 1 929 376 1 838 1 440 6 237 836 671 2 581 12 050 33 557 92.59 4 423 512 146 445 399 1 288 241 159 665 2 831 7 766 84.10 107. c Includes automotive diesel oil and industrial and marine diesel fuel.19 75.82 102.26 94.21 109.59 111.81 123.18 89.29 na Prices US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl a Commercial sales plus field and plant usage.15 74.43 5 651 595 78 721 364 2 160 312 191 819 4 048 10 295 106.19 89.29 96.42 90. Canberra.85 4 963 594 167 599 482 2 053 217 212 801 3 936 9 494 107. s BREE estimate. The data do not include volumes sold to distributors etc.25 84.51 77. Sources: BREE. Department of Resources.73 5 195 427 58 597 351 1 356 238 174 568 2 915 8 537 100.21 94. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 129 . ABARES.91 5 173 561 65 905 503 2 307 297 228 791 4 535 10 269 100.40 115. US Department of Energy.34 5 739 413 87 471 378 2 309 229 189 591 3 841 9 993 110. p Preliminary.98 118. Canberra.33 33 Petroleum continued Petroleum continued quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Quantity Crude oil and other refinery feedstock Indonesia ML Malaysia ML Middle East Saudi Arabia ML United Arab Emirates ML Other ML Total Middle East ML New Zealand ML Papua New Guinea ML Singapore ML Vietnam ML Other ML Total ML Natural gas kt Refined products LPG ML Automotive gasoline ML Aviation turbine fuel ML ML Diesel fuel c Fuel oil ML Lubricants ML Other products ML Total ML Value Crude oil and other refinery feedstock $m Natural gas $m Refined products LPG $m Automotive gasoline $m Aviation turbine fuel $m $m Diesel fuel c Fuel oil $m Lubricants $m Other products $m Total $m Total $m Dubai West Texas intermediate Brent Tapis Imports 4 178 5 319 478 3 846 43 4 367 2 569 1 580 605 3 904 4 762 27 284 4 149 067 884 168 668 797 415 1 966 19 967 1 3 2 8 1 4 805 5 929 156 4 683 0 4 880 2 565 1 612 497 2 554 8 923 31 766 4 799 888 653 086 820 559 463 2 293 18 762 2 2 8 1 1 596 1 431 92 926 0 018 621 220 164 777 121 949 218 1 000 1 337 0 1 037 0 1 037 658 566 139 428 2 894 8 060 1 179 136 827 462 1 815 420 124 533 4 317 1 019 1 274 64 1 688 0 1 793 640 409 162 558 2 218 8 073 1 140 191 599 485 2 888 375 123 558 5 219 662 866 0 1 260 0 1 260 578 305 104 831 2 577 7 184 1 226 411 775 642 2 704 361 132 619 5 646 959 1 335 0 1 566 0 1 566 498 399 96 356 2 058 7 269 1 089 168 1 176 646 2 920 451 141 677 6 180 782 1 604 216 887 0 103 587 408 128 262 004 878 144 1 1 2 7 1 3 7 1 327 712 633 2 040 505 113 579 4 909 156 897 466 2 703 457 128 278 5 085 15 031 1 219 405 2 447 1 283 5 270 910 519 1 683 11 296 27 546 74.

130 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Table 34 will be updated once these issues are resolved. Data for this table are sourced from the Australian Petroleum Statistics. ethane and natural gas by basin on a quarterly and annual basis. The Department of Resources. which are collected via voluntary industry reporting by the Department of Resources. Energy and Tourism is currently liaising with industry to resolve data-reporting issues and improve the coverage of the Australian Petroleum Statistics. The Department of Resources. condensate. Energy and Tourism.34 Petroleum production. by basin Table 34 habitually contains production statistics for crude oil. Energy and Tourism and ABARES conducted a review of the Australian Petroleum Statistics that identified issues affecting the coverage and quality of petroleum data. LPG.

ML March quarter 2012 p LPG b Automotive use c Total Automotive gasoline Premium unleaded Regular unleaded Other unleaded d Total of which sales to retailers Aviation gasoline Aviation turbine fuel Kerosine Heating oil Automotive diesel oil of which sales to retailers Industrial and marine diesel fuel Fuel oil e Lubricating oil and greases Bitumen Other products f Total 132 255 303 435 795 1 533 1 319 4 827 1 0 1 073 453 0 92 20 43 63 3 910 NSW a ML 200 301 110 940 150 1 199 1 010 4 283 0 0 872 377 0 75 15 43 7 2 800 Vic. by state marketing area Sales of petroleum products. ML Qld ML WA ML SA ML Tas. ML 2 7 5 21 0 26 14 2 45 0 0 112 10 0 0 1 0 0 194 NT ML 468 866 630 2 837 1 244 4 711 3 883 20 1 824 3 2 5 167 1 527 0 276 83 194 79 13 225 Aust. ML NT ML Aust. Energy and Tourism. ML 41 131 113 704 212 1 030 814 5 369 2 0 1 469 367 0 54 24 66 3 3 152 QLD ML 39 71 63 393 49 506 441 4 228 0 0 1 182 227 0 52 15 19 2 2 079 WA ML 51 86 22 260 33 315 237 2 68 0 0 364 84 0 0 7 17 2 861 SA ML 3 16 13 84 5 102 48 0 5 0 2 96 10 0 2 1 5 0 229 Tas. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 131 . ML 2010–11 LPG b Automotive use c Total Automotive gasoline Premium unleaded Regular unleaded Other unleaded d Total of which sales to retailers Aviation gasoline Aviation turbine fuel Kerosine Heating oil Automotive diesel oil of which sales to retailers Industrial and marine diesel fuel Fuel oil e Lubricating oil and greases Bitumen Other products f Total 563 1 206 1 003 2 160 2 996 6 159 5 172 14 3 191 1 0 4 352 1 682 6 192 130 190 214 15 655 874 1 396 398 3 612 629 4 640 3 864 14 1 138 3 1 3 269 1 410 0 269 102 123 31 10 988 191 583 433 2 515 1 181 4 130 3 166 21 1 477 19 0 5 501 1 388 0 128 97 264 20 12 241 149 284 249 1 576 149 1 973 1 725 15 836 0 0 4 535 879 0 168 62 65 12 7 952 225 374 91 1 090 116 1 296 973 6 239 0 0 1 427 317 0 0 28 59 10 3 440 13 65 51 331 19 401 198 1 27 1 4 367 34 0 0 5 13 0 885 7 28 21 104 0 126 67 7 159 1 0 603 57 0 0 5 4 1 934 2 022 3 936 2 247 11 388 5 090 18 725 15 165 79 7 068 27 5 20 054 5 766 7 757 430 719 289 52 095 a Includes Australian Capital Territory. b Includes sales for petrochemical feedstock. e Excludes refinery fuel. Source: Department of Resources. c This is a minimum level and includes only direct sales by the oil industry. The data do not include volumes sold to distributors etc. f Sales of LPG for petrochemical feedstock are included in LPG sales.35 35 Sales of petroleum products. d Includes proprietary brand and other blends. that are subsequently used or sold for automotive use. by state marketing area NSW a ML Vic. Canberra. p Preliminary.

p Preliminary.13 0 81 30 0 11 122 27 154 171 16 15 85 42 129. b P2O5 equivalent: 50 per cent.82 0 80 34 0 12 126 33 152 24 19 19 93 8 147.36 0 0 0 0 13 13 112 388 82 1 67 225 27 110. 132 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Primary Industries and Resources South Australia. d Average import unit value. Canberra. na Not available. Queensland Government.05 0 0 0 0 10 10 68 365 41 1 35 203 14 121.36 36 Imports Phosphate Phosphate quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Quantity Phosphate rock China Morocco Nauru Togo Other Total Phosphates Diammonium a Monammonium b High analysis c Value Phosphate rock Phosphates Diammonium a Monammonium b High analysis c Australia d kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt $m $m $m $m A$/t 1 73 0 0 11 85 203 433 160 10 107 203 36 253. Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics.40 1 98 42 0 28 169 13 128 26 29 9 84 12 172.38 Prices a P2O5 equivalent: 46 per cent.11 0 288 74 0 46 408 185 753 297 57 109 437 81 133.09 0 55 0 0 25 80 3 5 5 15 2 4 2 187. Government of South Australia. c P2O5 equivalent: 48 per cent. Department of Mines and Energy.

50 2 772 63 22.09 11 162 251 22.69 2 595 58 22. bagged and table Value Bulk.37 37 Salt Salt quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar 2 885 Jun 2 494 Sep 3 067 2011–12 Dec 2 957 Mar p 2 544 Australia a Production Exports s s kt 11 772 11 562 3 091 Quantity Bulk.29 2 793 63 22. p Preliminary. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 133 . b Average export unit value.49 2 802 63 22.49 Prices s a Excludes Victoria. s BREE estimate. ABARES.55 3 081 70 22. Sources: BREE. bagged and table Australia b kt $m A$/t 11 185 247 22.50 2 523 57 22.

c Pasminco Metals. fixed rate. s BREE estimate. b London Bullion Market Association. Australian Bureau of Statistics. unwrought silver and semi-manufactured forms. ABARES. p Preliminary. London Bullion Market Association. fob/fot Port Pirie.38 38 Silver Silver quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine s Silver content of all minerals produced New South Wales t Queensland t Western Australia t South Australia t Tasmania t Northern Territory t Australia Refinery Refined silver Quantity Refined silver bullion Value Refined silver a Value Refined silver bullion World b Australia c t t Production 82 1 527 60 15 78 47 1 809 701 73 1 483 51 34 110 42 1 792 712 18 417 12 9 23 12 491 174 19 272 12 8 21 7 340 189 20 376 14 8 46 12 476 212 17 321 22 7 48 14 428 250 18 384 15 7 43 13 481 247 23 338 13 6 34 13 426 168 Exports t $m 420 254 198 164 79 62 41 43 7 10 41 48 44 42 56 57 Imports Prices $m USc/oz A$/kg 107 1 688 609 490 2 880 920 103 2 643 841 111 3 186 991 254 3 796 1 178 572 3 898 1 128 187 3 188 948 93 3 263 992 a Includes refined bullion. powder. 134 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . Canberra. Sources: BREE.

Sources: BREE. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 135 . London Metal Exchange. p Preliminary. s BREE estimate. ABARES. Australian Bureau of Statistics. b LME official close. Canberra.39 39 TinTin quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010-11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine Tin content of all minerals produced t Western Australia s Tasmania t Australia s t Production 13 562 6 267 19 829 12 000 6 410 18 410 3 000 1 600 4 600 3 000 1 600 4 600 3 000 1 600 4 600 1 500 1 600 3 100 1 500 1 600 3 100 70 1 426 1 496 Exports Quantity Tin concentrate Refined tin Tin content of primary materials exported as Value Tin concentrate Refined tin Total Quantity Refined tin Value Refined tin LME b t t t $m $m $m 11 922 29 6 031 101 0 101 12 835 5 5 431 126 0 126 4 812 1 1 359 30 0 30 2 594 0 1 279 31 0 31 2 438 3 1 220 33 0 33 2 538 10 1 244 29 0 30 3 478 6 1 246 25 0 25 1 859 0 922 18 0 18 Imports t $m US$/t 752 14 16 202 673 18 23 960 167 4 26 001 216 6 24 200 146 4 25 400 187 5 23 200 127 3 22 100 190 4 17 339 Prices a Tin content of tin ores and concentrates and refined tin.

Australian Bureau of Statistics. s BREE estimate. b Average export unit value.40 40 Titanium minerals Titanium minerals quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Ilmenite concentrate New South Wales Queensland Victoria South Australia Western Australia Northern Territory Australia Leucoxene concentrate New South Wales Victoria South Australia Western Australia Northern Territory Australia Rutile concentrate New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Australia Synthetic rutile Titanium dioxide pigment Quantity Ilmenite concentrate a Leucoxene concentrate Rutile concentrate s Synthetic rutile s Titanium dioxide pigment Value Ilmenite concentrate a Leucoxene concentrate Rutile concentrate s Synthetic rutile s Titanium dioxide pigment Ilmenite concentrate Bulk s Rutile concentrate Bagged Titanium dioxide pigment Production s kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt 90 186 27 38 1 058 0 1 398 67 8 0 48 0 123 69 108 86 6 93 361 553 222 90 186 87 173 739 0 1 275 134 10 0 56 0 200 80 235 75 27 50 467 542 204 23 47 26 42 189 0 326 32 3 0 14 0 48 20 58 19 3 13 112 141 51 23 47 26 39 166 0 300 36 3 0 14 0 53 20 57 19 6 10 111 133 51 23 47 26 46 180 0 322 41 3 0 15 0 58 20 59 19 15 10 122 129 51 23 47 26 46 185 0 326 41 3 0 14 0 57 20 60 19 19 10 127 118 51 23 47 22 43 195 0 329 41 3 0 14 0 57 20 50 19 16 10 114 123 51 23 47 25 44 182 0 319 41 3 0 14 0 57 20 34 18 17 10 98 105 51 Exports kt kt kt kt kt $m $m $m $m $m A$/t A$/t A$/t 1 763 18 575 513 181 197 11 382 269 448 112 1 2 477 1 804 27 491 517 195 198 17 390 315 527 110 949 2 708 448 7 130 132 44 49 4 96 77 114 110 621 2 579 433 7 123 131 50 48 4 94 79 136 110 624 2 703 496 8 98 123 53 55 5 101 85 152 110 624 2 850 518 8 85 136 51 57 5 64 78 164 110 685 3 217 527 8 82 136 41 58 5 52 73 127 110 638 3 134 492 8 81 141 51 54 6 73 76 154 110 643 3 033 Prices b a From January 1992. ABARES. p Preliminary. na Not available. Canberra. Sources: BREE. 136 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . bulk only.

57 51. Sources: BREE.11 a ABS confidentiality: no country details to July 2009 and no details from August 2009.41 41 Uranium Uranium quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine Uranium oxide (U3O8) Uranium (U content) South Australia Northern Territory Australia Quantity Uranium oxide (U3O8) s Value Uranium oxide (U3O8) s Uranium oxide (U3O8) Industry spot b Australia cs Production t t t t 7 109 2 414 3 614 6 028 7 069 3 724 2 270 5 995 2 209 885 988 1 873 1 668 975 439 1 414 1 185 934 70 1 005 2 070 899 856 1 755 2 019 839 873 1 712 1 618 853 519 1 372 Exports as t $m 7 555 757 6 950 610 2 104 177 1 701 157 1 227 114 2 070 215 2 019 219 1 618 154 Prices US$/lb A$/kg 43. c Average export unit value. Department of Resources.50 84. The Ux Consulting Company. s BREE estimate.00 103. b Average of weekly restricted spot price.57 55.17 68. ABARES. p Preliminary.81 100.13 87.75 92. published by The Ux Consulting Company.70 51. Canberra.71 58.67 95. Energy and Tourism.42 92. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 137 .47 51.83 108.23 57.

Canberra.42 42 Zircon Zircon quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Production s Zircon concentrate New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Northern Territory Australia kt kt kt kt kt kt kt 53 92 49 46 168 0 408 70 197 40 249 118 0 674 14 47 10 54 30 0 156 21 48 10 71 27 0 177 21 53 10 71 28 0 183 21 58 15 93 24 0 211 21 59 15 69 27 0 191 22 35 15 67 24 0 164 Exports s Quantity Zircon concentrate Value Zircon concentrate kt $m 748 370 963 532 228 122 260 166 247 143 237 117 219 87 196 60 Prices a Zircon concentrate All grades – bagged A$/t 1 049 1 322 1 097 1 380 1 585 2 162 2 488 2 275 a Average export unit value. 138 Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 . ABARES. Sources: BREE. p Preliminary. s BREE estimate. Australian Bureau of Statistics.

London Metal Exchange. registered brands. Rep. 98. na Not available. China India Indonesia Korea. Sources: BREE. concentrates. Rep. intermediate products. Prime Western. Canberra. s BREE estimate. ABARES. Australian Bureau of Statistics. refined zinc. zinc powders. 25 tonne warrants. midday. slags. b LME cash. Resources and Energy Quarterly • vol 1 no 4 • June quarter 2012 139 . p Preliminary. of Malaysia New Zealand Saudi Arabia United States Other Total Zinc content of all primary materials exported as Value Zinc concentrates Refined zinc Total LME cash b Australia c kt kt kt Production 2 600 102 858 109 23 84 186 1 362 515 71 2 947 102 1 009 79 17 92 181 1 479 499 65 771 26 271 20 5 24 46 391 126 7 647 23 223 24 4 21 42 337 123 17 820 28 268 13 4 23 48 384 125 19 879 29 255 34 5 26 52 401 126 15 847 32 262 19 5 27 49 394 133 17 830 28 255 25 6 28 47 389 131 s na Exports kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt kt $m $m $m US$/t A$/t 26 1 146 11 39 285 333 217 116 100 0 2 271 109 91 61 6 20 6 26 7 7 21 71 425 1 482 1 237 977 2 214 2 066 2 265 51 973 84 44 249 316 293 234 64 9 2 317 73 84 61 6 22 8 29 11 6 73 38 410 1 494 1 479 893 2 373 2 243 2 458 13 374 0 5 108 52 72 0 11 5 639 8 23 13 1 6 3 7 3 2 0 7 73 357 388 164 551 2 315 2 545 13 164 44 9 26 116 70 63 9 0 514 17 15 15 2 5 1 7 2 2 31 7 103 343 334 235 570 2 393 2 575 13 187 31 10 70 119 71 92 25 0 617 28 23 16 2 4 0 8 3 2 20 17 121 411 389 263 651 2 250 2 387 13 269 19 9 77 101 50 57 0 0 594 25 17 18 1 4 0 7 2 0 20 5 100 372 350 217 567 2 224 2 327 13 373 11 10 86 100 54 0 21 0 668 44 22 16 1 4 0 6 3 1 20 6 122 433 388 245 633 1 912 2 112 13 153 40 12 59 119 98 61 10 0 565 26 17 6 1 3 0 7 2 1 48 5 117 386 311 222 533 2 022 2 094 Prices a Zinc content of all ores. flakes and dust. minimum 98 per cent. residues. c EZ Industries.43 43 Zinc Zinc quarter 2009–10 2010–11 Dec 2010–11 Mar Jun Sep 2011–12 Dec Mar p Mine s kt Zinc ore and concentrates Zinc content of all minerals produced kt New South Wales kt Queensland kt Western Australia kt South Australia kt Tasmania kt Northern Territory Australia Smelter and refinery Refined zinc (primary) Domestic despatches Refined zinc Quantity Zinc concentrates Belgium–Luxembourg China Germany India Japan Korea.5 per cent. of Netherlands Spain Thailand Other Total Refined zinc China Chinese Taipei Hong Kong.

au (02) 6243 7510 Nhu Che nhu.au (02) 6243 7504 roger.gov.armitage@bree.BREE Contacts Executive Director / Chief Economist – BREE Quentin Grafton Deputy Chief Economist/Research Director Roger Rose Modelling & Policy Integration Program Leader Resources Program Leader Alan Copeland alan.au (02) 6276 1000 Energy & Quantitative Analysis Program Leader Data & Statistics Program Leader Geoff Armitage geoff.rose@bree.gov.gov.grafton@bree.gov.au (02) 6243 7539 .au (02) 6243 7583 quentin.che@bree.au (02) 6243 7501 Arif Syed arif.gov.syed@bree.gov.copeland@bree.

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