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SUB:-Forecasting of Manpower

Requirement for the Year 2011-12

Regional College of Management Autonomous


Professor: Amresh C. Nayak

Submitted by,
Gurjinder Singh-1006247018 J. Supriya Subudhui-1006247019 Jyotiprakash Patra-1006247021 Kaushiki Sharma-1006247023 Mukul Sharma-1006247028

Pallavi Pradhan-1006247030 CONTENTS


Chapter-1 Chapter-2

Introduction Company profile (O v e r v i e w o f A X I S B A N K )


Literature review
(Need of HRP & Forecasting Future Manpower)


Research Methodology
Research Design Sources of Data

Chapter-5 Chapter-6

Data Analysis & Interpretation Findings & Conclusion



INTRODUCTION:The Human resource is the most significant and the only active factor of production. All other factors like capital, materials, buildings, plants and machinery etc. Remain inactive unless there are competent people to utilize them for producing goods and services desired by the society. Therefore human resources planning are necessary for organizational development. Now we are in 21st century the millennium has ushered in changing the very perception of the world we live in today industrialization is at its peak. Changes are taking place very rapidly. There is a stiff competition everywhere survival of the fittest is the new mantra of new millennium. Human resource is an important corporate asset and the overall performance of companies depends upon the way it is put to use. In order to realize company objectives, it is essential to have a human resource planning(employment or personnel planning) is essentially the process of waiting the right number of qualified people into the right job at the right time so that an organization can meet its objectives. It is a system of matching the supply of people(existing employees and those to be hired or searched for) with openings,the organizations expects over a given time frame. HRP is a forward looking function. It tries to assess Human Resource requirements in advance keeping the production schedules, market fluctuations, demand forecasts etc in the background. The Human Resource plan is subject to revision, of course, and each tuned to the requirements of an organization from time to time. It is an integral part of the overall corporate plan and reflects the broad thinking of management about manpower needs within the organization. The focus of the plan is always on getting right number of qualified people into the organization at the right time. To this end, Human Resource plans are prepared for varying time periods i.e. short term plans covering a time frame of two years and long term plans encompassing a period of five or more years.




UTI Bank was the first of the new private banks to have begun operations in 1994, after the Government of India allowed new private banks to be established. The Bank was promoted jointly by the Administrator of the specified undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (UTI I), Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) General Insurance Corporation of India (GIC) and other four PSU insurance companies,


National Insurance Company Ltd.,

2. The New India Assurance Company Ltd., 3. The Oriental Insurance Company Ltd. 4. United India Insurance Company Ltd. The Bank as on 30th September, 2011 is capitalized to the extent of Rs. 412.32 corers with the public holding (other than promoters and GDRs) at 52.07%. The Bank's Registered Office is at Ahmadabad and its Central Office is located at Mumbai. The Bank has a very wide network of more than 1281 branches (including 169 Service Branches/CPCs as on 31st March, 2011). The Bank has a network of over 7591 ATMs (as on 30th September, 2011) providing 24 hrs a day banking convenience to its customers. This is one of the largest ATM networks in the country. The Bank has strengths in both retail and corporate banking and is committed to adopting the best industry practices internationally in order to achieve excellence.

Customer service and product innovation tuned to diverse need of individual and corporate clients. Continuous technology up gradation while maintaining human values Progressive globalization and achieving international standards Efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices


To be the preferred financial solutions provider excelling in customer delivery through insight, empowered employees and smart use of technology

Customer satisfaction through: providing quality service effectively and efficiently Smile, it enhances your face value is a service quality stressed onperiodic customer service audits.

Maximization of stake holders value. Success through teamwork, integrity and people. Bank business is divided into 4 segments: Retail banking, corporate banking, treasury banking and merchant banking Apart from this, the bank is also into insurance, investment banking, mortgage financing, credit cards and depository services.

it is also registered on the following exchanges OTCEI BSE NSE London stock exchange

Retail banking
Deposit schemes Loans and advances Personal Loans Housing Loans

Cards Consumer durables Auto Loans

Personal banking
Accounts Cards Different variants like: Gold plus cards, silver and silver plus cards Terms deposits Fixed deposits Recurring deposits

Corporate banking
Accounts Normal current a/c Trust/NGO savings a/c

Services Private equity, mergers and acquisitions Advisory services Capital market funding E- broking

Anywhere banking Instant fund transfer Interest banking At-par (multi-city) cheque book

ATM cum Debit card Mobile banking Phone banking

Private Sector competitors: HDFC ICICI

Public Sector competitors: SBI PNB

Differentiated against other banks on the base of Max Area Coverage. Some banks have no reach to the some parts of the country .So Axis bank has an advantage of reach, in terms of reach to its customers. Level of service- Axis has an advantage of the product innovation.


High level of service Quality & through Product Innovation. Axis is not near in terms of reach but however it has created a Separate Segment for those who believe in high set of services.


Reach & Coverage to the People. Level of Service is same. International banks may create a problem but however it can be eliminated from constant publicity, innovation- atm divisions, varied services etc.,

Market Communication Objectives:

Emphasize as Independent Bank- gives imp on customer.

Emphasize on Product Innovation and communicating about new product launches. Global Market & global Std., services. Achievements.

900 Branches & 3875 ATMs A footprint in Asia-Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai and Shanghai. Strategic tie-ups & alliances UAE, Doha, Muscat (to be launched).

To achieve the following MO by 2011: To get the Market CAP of 500cr. 200 cr of Retail Investment. 125 cr Corporate Investments. To get the 175 Cr Capital Investments.


FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Total Deposits - Saving Bank Deposits - Current Account Deposits Total Advances - Retail Advances Total Investments 200620072008 2007 2008 -2009 58,785.60 87,626.22 117,374.1 1 12,125.88 19,982.41 25,822.12 11,304.31 20,044.58 36,876.48 59,661.14 8,927.54 13,591.68 24,821.61 81,556.77 16,051.78 46,330.35 2009 2010 141,300.2 2 33,861.80 32,167.74 104,340.9 5 20,820.73 55,974.82 2010 2011 189,237.8 0 40,850.31 36,917.09 142,407.8 3 27,759.23 71,991.62

26,897.16 33,705.10

Shareholders' 3,393.23 8,768.50 Funds Total 73,257.22 109,577.8 Assets/Liabilitie 5 s Net Interest 1,468.33 2,585.35 Income Other Income 1,010.11 1,795.49 Operating 2,478.44 4,380.84 Revenue Operating 1,214.59 2,154.92 Expenses Operating Profit 1,263.85 2,225.92 Provisions and 604.82 1,154.89 Contingencies Net Profit 659.03 1,071.03

10,213.59 147,722.0 5 3,686.21 2,896.88 6,583.09 2,858.21 3,724.88 1,909.52 1,815.36

16,044.45 180,647.8 5 5,004.49 3,945.78 8,950.27 3,709.72 5,240.55 2,726.02 2,514.53

18,998.83 242,713.3 7 6,562.99 4,632.13 11,195.12 4,779.43 6,415.69 3,027.20 3,388.49

Trend of Intellectual Capital For The Last Five Years:

(2006-07 2010-11)
Educational Qualifications CA/CS/ICWA/CFS Graduates/Post Graduate MBA/Masters Engineering/Technical 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 7% 36% 34% 2% 2.31% 51.66% 36.48% 2.31% 2% 53.74% 33.53% 2.95% 2% 53% 36% 4% 1.82 % 50.40% 37.70 % 6.36 %

Ph.D/Doctorate Bankers/Law Degree

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09


0.02% 4.10%

0.04% 4.73%

0.4% 4.6%

0.04 % 3.68 %

CA/CS/ICWA/CFS Graduates/Post-Graduates MBA/Masters Engineering/Technical Ph.D/Doctorate Bankers/Law Degree 2009-10 2010-11

Profile of Employees By Age For The Last Five Years:

(2006-07 2010-11)
AGE Below 30 Years Above 30 yrs to 40 yrs Above 40 yrs to 50 yrs Above 50 yrs to 60 yrs
120% 100% 80% Above 50 yrs to 60 yrs 60% 40% 20% 0% 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Above 40 yrs to 50 yrs Above 30 yrs to 40 yrs Below 30 Years

2006-07 72% 22% 5% 1%

2007-08 75% 20% 4% 1%

2008-09 76% 20% 3% 1%

2009-10 66% 29% 4% 1%

2010-11 70.94% 24.85% 3.51% 0.07%



Human resources are considered as the most valuable and important as they can become the counterproductive liability in comparison to other material resources which at best can become Non performing asset. Human resource planning is mainly concerned with crystallizing from where the right type of people in right number can be secured for future anticipated vacancies. Human resource planning attempts to recruit, retain and efficiently distribute and channel employees both laterally and hierarchically through an organization. By maintaining control over the quantitative and qualitative flows and stocks of manpower the organization functions smoothly by having the right human resource at the right place, at the right time and cost. Human resource is a primary resource without which other resources, physical and financial, cannot be put into use. Even a fully automatic unit requires human resource to run it and also to plan for further improvement. To achieve any goal, human resource requirement needs to be assessed, located and harnessed. HRP is not a mere assessment of the number of men required. An organization has to categorize men as per their knowledge and skills and also ensure their balanced allocation. Improper human resource planning may lead to overstaffing increasing direct cost (viz., salary), cost of training, amenities, apart from the cost of production. Understaffing also affects production, morale and productivity. Optimum human resource planning, therefore, aims at balancing demand, supply, distribution and allocation of human resource, controlling cost of human resources, formulating policies on transfer, succession, and relocation of human resource. Human resource planning means different things to different organizations. To some companies, human resource planning means management development. It involves helping executives to make better decisions, communicate more effectively, and know more about the firm. The purpose is qualitative to make men and women better managers. The emphasis is on having current managers who are skilled in their function and reasonably qualified for promotions. Too frequently the acquisition and development of the skills and knowledge needed for the future are lacking. The goal is often only to make the manager- a better manager today. HRP is a process by which management determines how the organization should move from the current manpower position to its desired manpower position. Through planning, management strives to have the right number and the right kinds of people, at the right places, at the right time, doing things, which result in both organization and the individual receiving maximum long run benefit.

HRP has been defined as a strategy for the acquisition, utilization, improvement, presentation and preservation of an enterprises human resources for achieving maximum long term benefits. HRP aims at maintaining and improving organizations objectives by making the workforce committed and satisfying the Individual employees needs and societal goals. It is that activity of the management which is aimed at Coordinating the requirements for and the availability of different types of employees. This involves ensuring that the firm has enough of the right kind of people at the right time and also adjusting the requirements to the available supply for achieving corporate objectives, through the development of strategies designed to enhance the contribution of human resources at all times in the foreseeable future. HRP is a component of corporate plan. The HRP assesses the corporate mission or objective before proceeding for preparation of human resource plan. Preparation of such a plan inevitably involves anticipating, inventorying, forecasting and programming future human resource requirement needs and arranging for an orderly procedure to meet these needs as and when they arise. Human Resource Planning System (HRPS) aims at better utilization of human resource existing in an organization. By identifying the deficiencies in each individual through analysis of human resource Inventory, it helps in identification of training need of an individual. By studying the job and the efficiency of the jobholder it not only helps in devising most ideal work practices but also helps in role clarity. Thus, without proper planning of human resource there is no development. HRP is the starting point of Human Resource Development System (HRDS). So concluding we can find that it is the process of forecasting, developing, controlling; by which a firm ensures that it has the right number of people and right kind of people at the right places at the right time doing the work for which they are economically most useful. It can also be expressed as the process by which an organization should move from its current manpower position to its desired man power position through planning. HRP may be viewed as foreseeing the HR requirements of an organization & the future supply of HR & Human resource or manpower is a primary resource without which other resources, physical and financial, cannot be put into use. Even a fully automatic unit requires manpower to run it and also to plan for further improvement. To achieve any goal, manpower requirement needs to be assessed, located and harnessed. HRP is not mere assessment of the number of men required. An organization has to categorize men as per their knowledge and skills and also ensure their balanced allocation. Improper manpower planning may lead to overstaffing increasing direct cost (viz., salary), cost of training, amenities, apart from the cost of production. Under-staffing also affects production, morale and productivity. Optimum manpower planning, therefore, aims at: Balancing demand, supply, distribution and allocation of manpower, Controlling cost of human resources, Formulating policies on transfer, succession, relocation of manpower.

Making necessary adjustments between these two & organizational plans. Foreseeing the possibility of developing the supply of HR in order to match it with requirements by introducing necessary changes in the function of HRM.

HRP functions as a planning and controlling technique. It enables a manager to predict the manpower requirement of the organization as well as control the number of employees deployed. It helps in optimum utilization of human resources. It controls wage and salary costs. It accurately estimates the number of employees required with appropriate skill and experience. It enables the organisation to undertake a manpower audit by which the shortages or surpluses in manpower are identified. The objectives of human resource planning are mainly to: 1. Integrate planning and control of human resource with organizational planning. 2. Ensure optimum use of human resource currently employed. 3. Avoid imbalances in distribution or allocation of human resources. 4. Forecast long-term manpower requirement. 5. Improve the efficiency and productivity. 6. Link HRP with organisational planning. 7. Coordinate human resource policies of the organization. 8. Provide control measure to ensure that necessary resources are available as and when required. 9. Minimize overstaffing and understaffing. 10. Anticipate redundancies and avoid unnecessary dismissals. 11. Determine optimum recruitment levels, thereby avoiding unexpected shortages. 12. Determine optimum training levels to avoid skill shortages. 13. Provide a basis for management development programmes. 14. Assess future accommodation requirements. 15. Achieve efficiency of work in all spheres of the corporate body. 16. Ensure cost minimization. 17. Eliminate all types of wastages including wastages of time. 18. Maintain required level of skill, experience & competency, matching present & future needs of the organization. 19. Control wage & salary costs. 20. Assist in productivity bargaining. 21. Enable the organization to undertake a human resource audit by which the shortage or surpluses in human resource are identified. 22. Fore see the employee turnover & make the arrangements for minimizing turnover & filling up of consequent vacancies. 23. Meet the needs of the programmes of expansion, diversification etc.

24. To fore see the impact of technology on work, existing employees & future human resource requirements. 25. Maintain congenial industrial relation by maintaining optimum level and structure of human resources. 26. Formulate transfer & promotion policies.


Various factors have contributed to the greater interest and concern for human resource planning in the modern context. Some of them are briefly summarized here. 1. The Growing Occupational Structure of the labour force in industrialized economies has shifted to meet changes in jobs. Occupations requiring the least skill and educational preparation show smaller growth and those that require more preparation are growing faster. This emphasizes the need for proper forecasting of future demand and sources of supply of different types of human resource. 2. Employment Unemployment Situation: Though in general the number of educated unemployed is on the rise there is an acute shortage for a variety of skills. This emphasizes the need for more effective recruitment and retraining people. 3. The Rising Job Requirements, within existing occupations make re-training a must for many current jobholders. This emphasizes continued retraining which makes alternative periods of work and refresher education a frequent pattern. 4. The Skill Shortages in less developed countries are a major hindrance in their progress towards industrialization. Though in general the number of educated unemployed is on the rise there is acute shortage for a variety of skills. This emphasizes the need for more effective recruitment and retraining people. Organizations have generally become more complex and require a wide range of specialist skills that are rare. Problems arise when such employees leave. 5. Technological Changes: The myriad changes in production technologies, marketing methods and management techniques have been extensive and rapid. This effect has been profound on job contents and job contexts. These changes cause problems relating redundancies, retraining and redeployment. All these suggest the need to plan human resource needs intensively and systematically. 6. Organizational Change: In the turbulent environment marked by cyclical fluctuations and Discontinuities, the nature and pace of changes in organizational environment activities and structures affect human resource requirements and require strategic considerations. 7. Demographic Changes: The changing profile of the work force in terms of age, sex, literacy, technical inputs and social background has implications for human resource planning. 8. Governmental Influence: Government control and changes in legislation with regard to alternative action for disadvantaged groups. Working conditions and hours of work, restriction on women and child employment, casual and contract labour etc.

have stimulated the organizations to become involved in systematic human resource planning. 9. Legislative Control: The days of executive flat and hire and fire policies are gone. Now legislation makes it difficult to reduce the size of an organization quickly and cheaply. It is easy to increase but difficult to shed the fat in terms of the numbers employed because of recent changes in labour law relating to layoff and closures. Those responsible for managing human resource must look ahead and thus attempt to foresee human resource problems. 10. Impact of Pressure Groups: Pressure groups such as unions, politicians and persons displaced from land by location of giant enterprises have been raising contradictory pressures on enterprise management such as internal recruitment, and promotions, preference to employees children, displaced persons, sons of the soil etc. 11. Changes in Mobility: Increased mobility of human resource has worked both to assist organizations and nations in meeting new job requirements and to complicate managers efforts to retain qualified employees by putting emphasis on human resource planning. 12. Systems Concept: The spread of system thinkers and the advent of the microcomputer as part of the on-going revolution in information technology which emphasizes planning and newer ways of handling voluminous personnel records. 13. Lead Time: The long lead-time is necessary in the selection process and for training and development of the employees to handle new knowledge and skills successfully. Finally the growing interest in the total process of management planning has stimulated attention to the need for human resource planning.


Human resource planning is practically useful at different levels such as: National Level: It is generally done by the Government and covers items like population projections, programmes of economic development, educational facilities occupational distribution and growth, industrial and geographical mobility of personnel. As per example the mass literary adult literary programmes, the childrens vaccination programme, setting up of school and colleges in the block level depending on the number of population in those areas, Midday lunch to poor school children in rural and tribal areas are some of the HRP programme at the National level. Subsidies to farmers and entrepreneurs in the backward areas are some of the sectoral level HRPs. It may be done by Central or State Government and may cover human resource needs of agricultural, industrial and service sectors. Industry Level: It may cover human resource forecast for specific industries, such as engineering, heavy industries, consumer goods industries, public utility industries etc.

Individual Unit Level: It may relate to the human resource needs of each individual organization for various departments and for various types of personnel. Planning the manpower requirement of RIL or NALCO for the future time period is an example of HRP at an individual unit level.

Short range
1. It occurs normally for 0-2 yrs. 2. It is done when expansion occurs due to technological change or because of employee turnover. 3. Supply of labour in this case can be done through departments, divisions or through promotions internally. 4. Externally labour supply can be done according to the area, employment levels etc.

Intermediate Range
1. This short of planning is normally done for a period of 2-5 yrs. 2. It is done when there is need from budgets or plans or because of expansion or contraction. 3. Internal supply of labour is done through merger or acquisition. 4. External supply is done through labour market projection.

Long range
1. It is a planning process, which is normally meant beyond 5yrs. 2. It is done when there is a change in the environment and technology. 3. Essentially it is judgmental. 4. Internal labour supply depends upon management expectations of employees and future available manpower. 5. External supply in this case depends upon future conditions affecting man power requirement.


Manpower planning consists of a series of activities, which can be listed as follows: Forecasting future manpower requirements: This is done either in terms of mathematical Projections or in terms of judgmental estimates. Mathematical projections are done depending on the specific future plans of a company by managerial discretion, which is based on past experience. Preparing an inventory of present manpower: Such inventory contains data about each employee's Skills, abilities, work preferences and

other items of information. Inventory of manpower resources helps in assessing the extent of deploying such resources optimally. Anticipating problems of manpower: This can be done by projecting present resources into the future and comparing the same with the forecast of manpower requirements. This helps in determining the quantitative and qualitative adequacy of manpower. Meeting manpower requirements: This can be achieved through planning, recruitment and selection, training and development, induction and placement, promotion and transfer, motivation and compensation to ensure that future manpower requirements are correctly met.

Planners face significant barriers while formulating an HRP. The major ones are following: 1. HR practitioners are perceived as experts in handling personnel matters, but are not experts in managing business. 2. People question the importance or making HR practices future oriented and the role assigned to HR practitioners in formulation of organisational strategies. There are people when needed offer handsome packages of benefits to them to quit when you find them in surplus. When the task is so simple, where the need for is elaborate and time consuming planning for human resources. 3. HR information often is incompatible with other information used in strategy formulation. Strategic planning efforts have long been oriented towards financial forecasting, often to the exclusion of other types of information. Financial forecasting takes precedence over HRP. 4. Conflict may exist between short term and long term HR needs. For example, there arises a conflict between the pressure to get the work done on time and long term needs, such as preparing people for assuming greater responsibilities. Many managers are of the belief that HR needs can be met immediately because skills are available on the market as long as wages and salaries are competitive. Therefore, long time plays are not required, short planning are only needed.



Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can also define research as a scientific and systematic search for pertinent information on a specific topic. In fact, research is an art of scientific investigation. The Advanced Learners Dictionary of Current English lays down the meaning of research as a careful investigation or inquiry specifically through search for new facts in any branch of knowledge. Redman and Mory define research as a systematized effort to gain new knowledge. Research is an academic activity and as such the term should be used in a technical sense. According to Cliffort Woody research comprises defining and redefining problems, formulating hypothesis or suggested solutions; collecting, organizing and evaluating data; making deductions and reaching conclusions; and at last carefully testing the conclusions to determine whether they fit the formulating hypothesis. D. Slesinger and M. Stephenson in the Encyclopedia of Science and define research as the manipulation of things, concepts or symbols for the purpose of generalizing to extend, correct or verify knowledge, whether that knowledge aids in construction of theory or in the practice of an art. Sources of Data There are two sources of data collection. They are:

Primary Data Source Secondary Data Source

The secondary data are those, which have already been collected by someone else through Books, Internet, Television, journals, Magazines, etc. On the other hand primary data does not exist . The researcher has to gather primary data afresh for the specific study undertaken by him. In this case data is collected from the Internet and Companys Annual Reports.


DATA ANALYSIS & Interpretation



NET PROFIT (X) (Rs. in crores) 659.03 1071.03 1815.36 2514.53 3388.49 X = 9448.44 MANPOWER (Y) 9980 14739 20624 21640 26435

YEAR 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

XY 6577119.40 15785911.17 37439984.64 54414429.20 89574733.15

X2 434320.54 1147105.26 3295531.93 6322861.12 11481864.48 X2 =22681683.33

Y = 93418 XY=203792177.56

X = X N = 9448.44 5 = 1889.69 Y = Y N = 93418 5 = 18683.60

B = [ XY N ( X ) ( Y ) ] [ X2 N ( X )2 ] = [203792177.56 5 (1889.69) (18683.60) ] [ 22681683.33 5(1889.69)2 ] =27261117.14 4827041.85 = 5.65 In the above formula, Y = Dependent Variable X = Independent Variable B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y A = Constant Integer N = Number of observations A = Y BX = Y B*( X ) =18683.60 5.65*(1889.69) = 8006.85 Y = A + BX = 8006.85 + 5.65 (3411.83) = 27283.69 27284

Working Notes

(a) Forecasting Net Profit for 2011-12

YEAR 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11


NET PROFIT (Rs. in crores) 659.03 1071.03 1815.36 2514.53 3388.49

CHANGES IN NET PROFIT 412 744.33 699.17 873.96 2729.46 Average Increase

in net profit = 2729.46 4 = 682.37 So Forecasted net profit for 2011-12 = 2729.46 + 682.37 = 3411.83


by giving exponentially decreasing weights to the historical data. YEAR 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 NET PROFIT in crores) 659.03 1071.03 1815.36 2514.53 3388.49 (Rs. MANPOWER 9980 14739 20624 21640 26435

FM t = FMDt + ( AMR t-1 FMD t-1 ) = 27284 + 0.5 ( 26435 23756 ) = 28624 In the above formula, FM t = Forecasting man-power for t year FMDt = Forecasting man-power demanded for t year = Smoothing constant or a non-linear decimal value lying between 0 and 1. This has been assumed as 0.5 in the above case

AMR t-1 = Actual man-power requirement for (t-1) year FMD t-1 = Forecasting man-power demanded for (t-1) year
t = The forecasting year

( t-1 ) = The present year Working Notes: (a) Forecasting Net Profit for 2010-11

YEAR 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10


NET PROFIT (Rs. in crores) 485.08 659.03 1071.03 1815.36 2514.53

CHANGES IN NET PROFIT 173.95 412 744.33 699.17 2029.45 Average Increase in net

profit = 2029.45 4 = 507.36 So Forecasted net profit for 2010-11 = 2029.45 + 507.36 = 2536.81 (b) USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS TO FORECAST DEMAND FOR 2010-11

YEAR 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

NET PROFIT (X) (Rs. in crores) 485.08 659.03 1071.03 1815.36 2514.53 X = 6545.03

MANPOWER (Y) 6553 9980 14739 20624 21640

XY 3178729.24 6577119.40 15785911.17 37439984.64 54414429.20 Y = 73536 XY=117396173.65

X2 235302.61 434320.54 1147105.26 3295531.93 6322861.12 2 X =11435121.46

X = X N = 6545.03 5 = 1309.01

Y = Y N = 73536 5 = 14707.20

B = [ XY N ( X ) ( Y ) ] [ X2 N ( X )2 ] = [ 117396173.65 5 (1309.01) (14707.20) ] [11435121.46 5(1309.01)2 ] =21136814.29 2867585.56 = 7.37 In the above formula Y = Dependent Variable X = Independent Variable B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y A = Constant Integer N = Number of observations A = Y BX = Y B ( X ) =14707.20 7.37*(1309.01) = 5059.80 Y = A + BX = 5059.80 + 7.37(2536.81) = 23756.09 23756

Level 1 (21-30) Years Current man-power strength Percentage of employees to the next level Rate of employee turnover New recruitment as a percentage of total recruitment 18753 Level 2 (31-44) Years 7033 Level 3 (45-59) Years 649






Probability Matrix ( P )

L1 L1 0.73

L2 0.10

L3 0

P = L2





L1 = n (t+1) = 0 + ( 0.73 X 18753 ) = 13689.69 L2 = n (t+1) = ( 0.10 X 18753 ) + ( 0.85 X 7033 ) = 1875.3 + 5978.05 = 7853.35 L3 = n (t+1) = ( 0.05 X 7033 ) + ( 0.99 X 649 ) = 351.65 + 642.51 = 994.16

L1 n ( t+1) = 13690

L2 7853

L3 994

Forecasted Supply For 2011-12 = 13690 + 7853 + 994 = 22537 The formula applied to calculate n ( t+1 ) is n ( t+1 ) = n ( t ) P + R ( t+1 ) r where, n( t ) The vector of stocks at a given time, t or Number of employees in each starters group P = The matrix of transition of probabilities in each starter group r = The vector of probabilities of a recruit, starting in a particular starter group R ( t ) = The number of new recruits at time, t. t = Current Year ( t + 1 ) = Next Year Working Notes

1) Calculation of current man-power strength A ) Man-power in 2010-11 = 20645 B ) Profile By Age Age-Group Below 30 Years Above 30 yrs to 40 yrs Above 40 yrs to 50 yrs Above 50 yrs to 60 yrs Percentage Of Employees 70.94% 24.85% 3.51% 0.07%

C ) Calculation Of Number Of Employees In Age-Group Level1 (L1) = 26435 X 70.94% = 18753 Level2 (L2) = 26435 X 26.605% = 7033 Level3 (L3) = 20645 X 2.455% = 649 D ) 3.51% has been equally distributed between (i) Above 30 yrs to 40 yrs (ii) Above 50 yrs to 60 yrs

2) Calculation Of Probability Matrix

A ) Number of employees retained at a particular level L1 = (100 -10 - 16.55 )% = 73.45% 0.73 L2 = (100 - 5 -10 )% = 85% = 0.85 L1 = (100 - 0 - 1)% = 99% = 0.99



1) In the year 2011-12, Axis Bank will have a demand of 28624 employees.

2) Markov Chain Analysis indicates that in the year 2011-12, Axis Bank will have 22537 employees available within the organization to man various positions.

1) Axis Bank will have to depend on external sources of labour supply for bridging the gap (28624 22537= 6087) between demand and supply of human resources.