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Food prices don’t affect hunger- it only affects the richest members of other countries Paarlberg 8 (Robert, professor of political science at Wellesley College, April 22, pg. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/22/opinion/edpaarlberg.php)
International prices of rice, wheat and corn have risen sharply, setting off violent urban protests in roughly a dozen countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. But is this a "world food crisis?" It is certainly a troubling instance of price instability in international commodity markets, leading to social unrest among urban food-buyers. But we must be careful not to equate high crop prices with hunger around the world. Most of the world's hungry people do not use international food markets, and most of those who use these markets are not hungry. International food markets, like international markets for everything else, are used primarily by the prosperous and secure, not the poor and vulnerable. In world
corn markets, the biggest importer by far is Japan. Next comes the European Union. Next comes South Korea. Citizens in these countries are not underfed.
Fears of food prices causing instability is media hype Matthews 8 (Mark, Merril Lynch strategist, May 28, pg. http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/05/28/riots/)
Wordage is deep and densely packed. In one article from a respectable newspaper recently, tensions, violence, eruptions, insecurity, desperate, and afraid all managed to be squeezed into nine paragraphs . Food-related riots have been reported in Pakistan, India, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam. But when we called our offices and associates in each of those countries, each one told us there had been no riots. Photographs of machine gun-toting guards protecting rice supplies in the Philippines , for example, or crowds of jostling women at rice distribution centers in Indonesia, paint a thousand words. But visitors to the Philippines know that guns are a fairly common sight there. Contrary to press reports, there have been no riots in the Philippines. The Bangladesh Rifles were deployed to markets in that
country. Not because there were riots, but instead to ensure an orderly disbursement of food, so that middlemen could not hoard it in order to push the price up.
Plan won’t solve hunger- it’s inevitable given growing populations Avery 8 (Dennis, sr. fellow @ the Hudson Institute, May 11, pg. http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/3006)
Even giving up biofuels won’t stave off the world’s hunger for long, because we’ll need more than twice as much food and feed per year by 2050. The number of humans is likely to peak at about 8 billion, up from today’s 6.4 billion, and at least 7 billion of them are likely to be affluent enough to eat meat and ice cream. They’ll have fewer children—but more pets, few of them vegetarian.
The plan won’t affectuate change for years Braun 8 (Joachim Von, Director General, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI ), August 6, pg. http://www.economist.com/debate/index.cfm?
action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829103) The crisis is not short-term. Some have argued that this crisis will be short-lived. As positive price and policy incentives stimulate food production, they say, prices will fall and the crisis will come to an end. I have two responses: First, IFPRI has modelled scenarios for supply responses to high food prices, and even the optimistic scenarios show prices increasing until 2015 (excluding speculative effects which may change matters in the short run). Second, new research shows that young children often never completely recover from temporary episodes of undernutrition. A 2008 Lancet article shows that boys benefiting from a randomised nutrition intervention at a young age earned wages 50% higher 30 years later than boys who did not benefit from the intervention. If lack of food and poor diets
resulting from high food prices prevent infants and young children from getting the nutrients they need, the health and economic consequences for the individuals and society are not temporary, but lifelong . This means that even if prices begin falling today, the effects of this crisis will be with us for years to come.
2NC Defense---XT #1: No Impact
food prices don’t affect the most impoverished Paarlberg 8 (Robert, professor of political science at Wellesley College, April 22, pg. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/22/opinion/edpaarlberg.php)
Data on the actual incidence of malnutrition reveal that the regions of the world where people are most hungry, in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, are those that depend least on imports from the world market. Hunger is caused in these countries not by high international food prices, but by local conditions, especially rural poverty linked to low productivity in farming . When international prices are go up, the disposable income of some import-dependent urban dwellers is squeezed. But most of the actual hunger takes place in the villages and in the countryside, and it persists even when international prices are low.
and our argument is empirically true Paarlberg 8 (Robert, April 22, pg. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/22/opinion/edpaarlberg.php)
The poor in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are hungry even though their connections to high-priced international food markets are quite weak.
In the poorest developing countries of Asia, where nearly 400 million people are hungry, international grain prices are hardly a factor, since imports supply only 4 percent of total consumption - even when world prices are low. Similarly in sub-Saharan Africa, only about 16 percent
of grain supplies have recently been imported, going mostly into the more prosperous cities rather than the impoverished countryside, with part arriving in the form of donated food aid rather than commercial purchases at world prices.
more evidence Paarlberg 8 (Robert, April 22, pg. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/22/opinion/edpaarlberg.php)
There is a severe food crisis among the poor in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, but it does not come from high world prices. Even in 2005 in sub-Saharan Africa, a year of low international crop prices, 23 out of 37 countries in the region consumed less than their nutritional requirements.
2NC Defense---XT #2: Hype
companies have a financial interest in exaggerating food prices Washington Times 8 (April 23, pg. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/apr/23/americans-hoard-food-as-industry-seeks-regs/?page=2) The upswing in prices has been exaggerated by the massive influx of investors and speculators seeking to profit from rising prices for corn, wheat, oil, gold and other commodities. Big Wall Street firms and hedge funds have taken huge positions in futures markets that once were dominated by relatively small operators such as farmers and grain-elevator owners.
Productivity is on the rise.brookings. Higher prices discourage consumption. storage and land improvements . John Deere’s share price has doubled and has split two-for-one in the last two years. sr. With rising demand and constrained supply the iron law of economics permits no other response. Food production is key---solves hunger Bruce Campbell 12 Ph. We must take heed of the reminder from Dyborn Chibonga. This should come as no surprise. Agriculture and Food Security “A New Vision for Sustainable Agriculture for Rio+20 Summit http://www. cereal production has resumed its upward trend. http://www. July 29. When prices fell steeply between 1997 and 2002. http://www.aspx) The good news is that higher food prices are exactly what is required to restore balance in the market. Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year and seriously undermine the ability of small-scale farmers to provide food for their families and national and global markets.html To feed a global population of 9 billion people by 2050 will require a 60 to 70% increase in global food production and a 50% rise in investments in food. CEO of the National Smallholder Farmers Association of Malawi.huffingtonpost. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. This pattern is being repeated across the world. John Deere. In a market economy.com/bruce-campbell-phd/rio20-summit-sustainable-agriculture_b_1608824. sr. Anyone who doubts the link between food prices and agricultural investment should take a close look at the stock price of the world’s largest producer of agricultural equipment. prices rise. And.KY 1NC Ag Scenario High food prices are key to ag investment Kharas 8 (Homi. agriculture and rural development. July 29.D. cereal production declined. Now that prices have risen back to the levels of the mid-1990s. Director.edu/opinions/2008/0729_food_prices_kharas. it’s key to production and productivity Kharas 8 (Homi. CGIAR Research Progamme on Climate Change.edu/opinions/2008/0729_food_prices_kharas. While most US shares have taken a beating. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. that "the hand hoe is an instrument of mass urbanization" and step forward to develop and disseminate appropriate technologies for meeting gaps in yields. but they also encourage more investment and enhance production. when demand exceeds supply. with investments in equipment. .brookings. in livelihoods and in climate resilience.aspx) More food is already being produced in response to higher prices: forecasts for cereals production in 2008 by the Food and Agriculture Organisation show a significant increase. High food prices are encouraging farmers to invest heavily in new equipment.
in other words. it seems not so impressive: The 2009 output equaled 170 percent of 1948 output .” otherwise known as the secret sauce by which an industry gets more efficient at turning inputs into value. more machines and capital goods. Farming. Japan. for an average annual rate of 1. A cow is essentially a low-efficiency. productivity derives from multiple sources. high-status method of transforming grain into food for humans. The big destinations for American farm goods are our neighbors in Canada and Mexico.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---Productivity UQ We control uniqueness—productivity is high now Matthew Yglesias 6/8 is Slate’s business and economics correspondent “How To Make U. America exports meat ($12.11 percent during this period. beef. stands alongside software. airplanes. our staple grains feed animals. The United States’ great East Coast metropolises arose as export terminals for the agricultural bounty this land bore. so seems unfair to expect its productivity to increase at the same rate as computer production or jet airplane manufacturing.com/articles/health_and_science/future_tense/2012/06/agriculture_industry_needs_more_farmland_and_better_immigration_laws_. and military equipment as one of the main things we sell to the world in exchange for our imports of oil and consumer goods. How productive is America’s farm sector? Viewed in one light. and chicken in 2011). served to further expand the scope of agricultural shipping. And here’s where America’s farms look like champions. tourism. so steady growth in world demand for meat implies enormous growth in demand for feed crops. agriculture remains a great constant of our economy. more to the point. .5 million worth of pork. meaning that almost all the growth in agriculture was due to “total factor productivity. Relatively few Americans farm today. canals and railroads. As people get richer. and Taiwan.slate. a continent-sized expanse of free land up for grabs for anyone with the gumption to sail across the ocean and steal it from the Indians. The lion’s share of our exports—about $50 billion worth last year—were basic staples: soybeans. but the much-derided mainstream commercial agriculture sector in the United States remains a major engine of productivity and could easily be become stronger yet. But the agricultural industry was already mature in 1948. A firm. country. What’s more. and cotton. plus the hungry mouths of land-scarce Asia—China. financial services.S. South Korea.63 percent—well below the economy-wide average.html America got its start as an agricultural wonderland . more land and energy—as well as by increasing the efficiency with which these inputs are used. And though America has industrialized and then unindustrialized. Total growth in agricultural inputs was only 0. and their intersections brought us the cities of the Midwest. And rising living standards in the Pacific Rim promise even more agricultural bounty ahead. they start to want to eat more meat. but. Our early infrastructure megaprojects. wheat. Agriculture Even Stronger” 2012 http://www. or sector can increase output by increasing the volume or quality of inputs—more workers. corn. One tangible sign of America’s sustained agricultural productivity is that we are a large net exporter of agricultural goods . media.
cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065) Low international food prices were partly to blame. www.doc) Once again. pg. USAID support for agricultural science in Africa has been cut by 75% over the last two decades. Low food prices meant that rates of return on proposed projects in roads. the International Food Policy Research Institute. floods and fires.economist. sr. . but most of the needed investment will have to come from the private sector in national economies. But governments also responded by cutting their investments in agriculture. To achieve this increased investment is paramount. high transport costs.org/English/thewto_e/minist_e/min01_e/statements_e/st95. African food production per head has declined by 12% since 1980.wto. and pricing and marketing policies that penalized farmers”. low prices discourage ag investment that is the key to overcoming hunger Kharas 8 (Pro Homi.un. Africa had to use scarce foreign exchange to import rice and household food consumption did not grow. That is code for saying that prices were too low. it averaged just 1% per year. senior United Nations experts today called for greater investment in agriculture from both the public and private sectors to increase smallholder productivity . singles out “poor infrastructure. limited investment in agriculture. and political changes and instability that are disrupting food supply chains.asp? NewsID=37570&Cr=food+prices&Cr1 Faced with soaring food prices for the second time in three years. Support to ensure more farmers are willing and able to generate marketable surpluses will be critical in meeting increased demands in the future.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---Investment Investment is key---offsets food prices UN News Center 11 “UN food experts call for increased agricultural investment to offset soaring prices. pg. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. Policy-related solutions are also required to increase the longer-term resilience of global agriculture to allow greater levels of supply to markets as demand grows according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Particular attention is needed to increase smallholder productivity growth and to their increased integration into markets.org/apps/news/story. A point that we ve been maintaining now for the last 30 years is that there is systematic and serious under-investment in agriculture and food security and that s a problem now he later told a news conference. irrigation and marketing infrastructure were too low to justify investment. rice production in Africa was being outstripped by population growth. In an assessment of declining African food production. August 1. African conditions were not suitable for high-yielding Asian hybrids and African high-yielding varieties were not developed and distributed. I wish to emphasize the importance of investment in agriculture to improve food security. The fall in developed countries was most dramatic: from 1991 to 2000 real growth was negative. weather-related disasters such as droughts. David Nabarro. Evidence clearly shows that countries which decreased the number of undernourished in the 1990s have substantially increased capital stock is agriculture whereas capital stock declined in those where the number of hungry increased. November 11. http://www. In Africa in the 1990s. Joachim von Braun’s own organisation.” Feb 18 http://www. the growth rate of public investment in agriculture fell in every region in the world. Falling production is the inevitable response when private producers are faced with falling prices. investment is vital to overcoming hunger Haen 1 (Hartwig de. cited under- investment among four challenges in the overall food security situation. Africa’s poor farmers simply could not compete when international food was so cheap. By the mid-1990s. As real food prices fell from 1975 onwards. along with the soaring prices. Public sector investment is needed to establish the basic conditions for productivity growth and this will require a reversal of the decline in aid flows to agriculture and increased national budget allocations.com/debate/index. coordinator of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon s High-Level Task Force on Global Food Security.
almost everyone agrees that we need faster rural development to alleviate poverty and hunger. When Vietnam liberalised and raised rice prices in the 1990s. http://www. This is vital to combatting hunger FAO 2 (Food and Agricultural Organization. You can't improve education if children are too undernourished to learn. August 6.cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068) In the last analysis. rural families were able to afford to send their children to school rather than having them work as farm labourers. http://www. You can't preserve the environment if people are forced to claw every last bit of nutrition from exhausted soil. These educated children are today fuelling Vietnam’s rapid growth. And you can't persuade farmers to innovate if they are just barely able to survive" ." says William Meyers.economist. sr. who directs FAO's analysis of agriculture's role in development. March 14. pg.fao.htm) "These funds must be mobilized to fight hunger directly.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---Rural Development High food prices are key to rural development Kharas 8 (Homi.com/debate/index. fellow @ the Brookings Institute .short-term hunger alleviation and long-term rural development . Higher farmgate prices are a key element for this to happen. pg.org/news/2002/020303-e. "You can't improve people's health if they're hungry. "Rural development is also key to any substantial progress and fighting hunger itself is the key to the Millennium Goals. So we need that twin-track approach -. One blogger commenting on this debate offered a nice example of this process at work. The country has seen arguably the fastest decline in poverty in history. And it started with a rise in food prices.
pg.php) The increase in per capita supplies took place despite a doubling of world population to 6 billion .. Now. .t. More than 80 percent of people in developing countries now have adequate diets. to feed the world's projected population. November 15. http://www. agricultural production must increase by at least 2 percent every year to almost double yields on existing land in the next 30 years.com/articles/1996/11/15/edser. up from 64 percent in 1970.iht.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---XT More Food Key That solves hunger Serageldin 96 (Ismail.
not better.cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065) Government interventions and distortions in food markets have been with us for decades. because a system with food prices in free fall for 30 years did not produce any measurable decline in hunger and poverty.cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 To all those who bemoan the hunger and hardship that higher food prices are causing for the poor. http://www. Yes. fellow @ the Brookings Institute . these problems got worse. The prolonged period of low food prices did very little to reduce poverty and hunger. I would simply say that a system which failed to produce any marked change in hunger and poverty over a 30-year period of price declines was not working for the poor. pg. land use would shift towards corn-for-ethanol and other biofuel crops and we would have less food available. and will accelerate over time. sr. August 6. August 6.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---AT Low Prices Solve Hunger we control uniqueness. because higher food prices will bring about new investments in agriculture and higher global production.com/debate/index. fellow @ the Brookings Institute . because the great urban/rural divide that was cleaving societies across the developing world has now narrowed. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. 30 years of low prices prove they don’t solve hunger Kharas 8 (Pro Homi. There has been very little progress in Africa over the last decade. sr. But the last time food prices were as high as they are today we witnessed the Green Revolution and a rapid reduction of rural poverty in one of the largest population centres of the world. August 1. This is already happening in Asia and other parts of the world. in many countries. Yes. http://www. more ev Kharas 8 (Homi. because without higher food prices. Give a different system a chance. .economist.economist. Yes. pg. more than 20% of children under five were severely or moderately underweight (the UN’s indicator of hunger) in 2000-04 in most of sub-Saharan Africa and in several countries in Asia.economist.low prices haven’t ever alleviated hunger Kharas 8 Homi. surely there is an upside to changing strategies. South Asia. http://www. sr. So have the problems of hunger and malnutrition in the developing world. According to the United Nations.com/debate/index. If a strategy has not worked for 30 years.cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068) Are today’s food prices fair to producers and consumers? Yes. During a 30-year period of declining food prices from 1973 to 2002. pg.com/debate/index. especially in Africa where it is most intransigent.
” says Josette Sheeran. . “High food prices could help the very poor. is doing much of the job for it! High food prices good – African Farmers Hotter 12 (Andrea.FoodPrices. The European Union has suspended its “set-aside” rules that ban farmers from planting cereals on 10% of their land. people will be forced to return to subsistence-level conditions. In Russia. “You’re seeing now billions of dollars of investment pouring into Africa. where yields are one tenth of what they could be with proper investment and conditions. We should feel a bit less pity for these urban consumers. executive director of the WFP. China for example. says the head of the United Nations’ World Food Programme. Rio de Janeiro or Bombay live longer and in better health than their rural compatriots. have long been subsidised by the poorest of the poor. November 8. price controls on basic foodstuffs have been imposed. This is economics as paranoia. goes to the rural poor. where there is little investment. The overwhelming majority of them are starting to benefit from the present rise in global food prices. “You can look at hunger as a Malthusian nightmare. “The first global food shortage since the 1970s”. Yet the cacophony of apparently “informed opinion” now giving vent is loudly moaning about food price rises. The majority of slum residents of Lagos. “If you solve hunger. referring to a a theory that once population growth exceeds agricultural production.com/davos/2012/01/27/could-high-food-prices-be-a-blessing-in-disguise-for-africanfarmers/) High food prices may sound catastrophic. January 27th. you create jobs up the entire hunger chain.the market. not enough. The world can’t feed itself in 2050 without the African farmer having its time in the sun. Their governments spend far more per head on them than they do on the small farmers and landless.” she says. Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research. Asia and Latin America. The truth is this is a long overdue correction in the terms of trade. long ago in Maoist times the friend of the peasant.wsj. Most of them are small farmers or landless farm workers. 2007.those left behind in the remote reaches of the countryside. and only rutted roads and battered trucks to link their produce to the market place.world’s poorest are rural farmers Jonathan Power. whereby the urban minority of the world. few schools or health clinics. Could High Food Prices Be a Blessing in Disguise?.” The world’s agricultural growth potential is in Africa. headlines the Financial Times. Only 4% of foreign aid. Shanghai. according to the World Bank’s latest report. but they may actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise for African farmers. Belatedly last month the World Bank has decided that improving economic growth in rural areas is by far the best way of reducing poverty among the world’s poorest people. not across the value chain or food production but I believe the opportunity is there . or you can look it as a tremendous opportunity because everyone has to eat. http://blogs. They would benefit even more if governments would allow markets to do their job. “There is a sense of panic. whether they be shanty town dwellers in Nigeria’s Lagos or Parisian consumers of Danone’s yoghurt whose prices have just been raised by 10%. in pushing up agricultural prices.KY 1NC Poverty Turn Rising food prices are the best way to reduce poverty. controls food prices to keep its city people happy.” says Abdolreza Abbassian.org/Columns_Power/2007/43. secretary of the grains trading group at the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation.html Most of the world’s poor live in the rural backwaters of Africa. so I believe the time has come for the African farmer.” http://transnational. What fortuitous timing.
There were relatively few studies that used actual data on sources of household incomes as well as household food expenditures to explore this question. I do not want this debate to be about such sophistry. Poverty. Rising food prices cause a net decrease in poverty Sandra Polaski. For example. the poverty impact will also depend on how price changes are transmitted through labor markets.that fast-rising Asian economies like China and India needed to fuel their rapid development. China has cultivated close ties with African nations like Sudan and Angola to ensure it has the raw materials it needs ." Mr. Wyss said. Africa holds many of the crucial minerals . Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. but economists say the commodities boom is probably helping more poor people than it hurts because developing countries are the primary source of raw materials. Unskilled workers in urban areas may also be affected. Europe and Japan pay for fuel and other raw materials amounts to a massive transfer of income to the developing world. many of which are net exporters of commodities. land use would shift towards corn-forethanol and other biofuel crops and we would have less food available. because without higher food prices. although their rising costs for food might outweigh the benefits. “Rising Food Prices. a number of studies using detailed household data have called that generalization into question. Rising prices might improve local economies in rural areas in ways that benefit non-farming households.” The Economist.com/debate/index.” LexisNexis The hardship of high food and fuel prices for the world's most impoverished people has garnered much attention.giving a shot in the arm to some of the weakest economies on the continent. Yes. Venezuela. http://www. such as those of small-scale traders and service providers. Developing nations provide materials.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 Are today’s food prices fair to producers and consumers? Yes. Surprisingly. diamonds and other basic goods the world needs for sustenance and growth. Zambia and Congo are major beneficiaries of the sixfold increase in oil prices since 2002 as well as record high prices for corn. but a boon to the emerging economies. 2008.Some have argued that the proposition is unfairly worded." Mr. since a rising tide can lift even a poorly sailed boat. contributing to the supply of labor and perhaps lowering wages. "Latin America and the OPEC countries are the greatest beneficiaries. While high costs are a burden on millions of people in the developing world .Yes. Botswana. 2008. aluminum. gold. laborers from the countryside may search for work in nearby towns and cities. In addition to direct selling and buying of food. Senior Associate and Director. soybeans. Yes. Instead let us be clear about the real changes in people’s lives that can come about in the long run from higher food prices.primarily the urban poor not engaged in farming or mining .pdf Rising food prices can either reduce or increase poverty.4 percent real growth over the past five years. depending on how poor households earn their income and how they spend it. MAY 2008. Most Middle Eastern nations as well as countries such as Brazil. and the Doha Round. lower food prices would alleviate poverty. http://www. where the money is fueling rapid growth. but sub-Saharan Africa is also a winner. rice. Wyss said. wheat. copper. nickel. because the great urban/rural divide that was cleaving societies across the developing world has now narrowed. This view held that because more poor households were net food buyers than were net food sellers. Equity and Development Program. averaging 5. Now.KY 2NC Poverty Turn---XT Link Higher food prices solve poverty.almost all of which are commodity importers. however. "The strong revenues are even helping the countries where government policies are poor.carnegieendowment. This is already happening in Asia and other parts of the world. The hundreds of billions more dollars each year that consumers in the United States. Argentina. August 6. if rising prices lead farmers to expand production and hire more farm labor. uranium . The Washington Times.copper.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. and will accelerate over time.new investments and rural /urban gap Homi Kharas. surely food prices are no exception. most poor people will gain from higher food prices. Commodity boom creates a net gain for developing countries Patrice Hill. Because about seventy-five percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas where agriculture is the main economic activity.org/files/polaski__food_prices. As there is an upside to most things. South Asia. "High commodity prices are a problem for the industrial countries .economist. “The Proposition's closing statement. because a system with food prices in free fall for 30 years did not produce any measurable decline in hunger and poverty. the conventional view has been the opposite in recent decades." said David Wyss. households that produce and sell food crops will benefit from an increase in prices. “High prices not all bad. But the last time food prices were as high as they are today we witnessed the Green Revolution and a rapid reduction of rural poverty in one of the largest population centres of the world. Chile. chief economist at Standard & Poor's Corp. one might assume that rising food prices would tend to alleviate poverty on average and at the global level. For example. unless they buy more food than they sell. landless farm workers may benefit. A forthcoming study by two . If food prices go down. Most of the evidence I have seen suggests that when looked at in detail. Trade. The factors determining the impact on poverty are complex and the results are likely to vary among countries and for different crops.the world's richer countries are paying the biggest price because they are dependent on developing nations for the raw materials they need to fuel their economies. June 2. because higher food prices will bring about new investments in agriculture and higher global production. raising living standards and feeding the emergence of a middle class. perhaps the best performance in history.
The study then explores the links between agricultural prices and the sources of income for net food buying rural households. meaning that rising prices would have only small impacts on expenditure and might be outweighed by changes in income. land markets. .KY World Bank researchers finds that in a sample of nine low income countries. the net food sellers were poorer than net food buyers. almost half spent less than ten percent of their income on food. while lower prices do the opposite. Two other seminal studies.6 They demonstrate that secondary effects may outweigh the direct effects of food prices. whether directly through farming or pastoral activities or through wage and business income that is linked to agricultural incomes. and spillover effects of agricultural prices in rural economies and tested them with household survey data.5 Rising food prices would tend to transfer income from richer to poorer households. one for Bangladesh and one for Mexico. developed theoretical models of the role of labor markets. Findings from all of these studies indicate that a simple focus on net consumption versus net production is likely to be misleading. They also provide important analytical foundations for further work to better understand the relationship of food prices to poverty. finding that about half of their income depends on agriculture. Among poor net food buying households.
2008. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. almost everyone agrees that we need faster rural development to alleviate poverty and hunger. “The Proposition's closing statement. rural families were able to afford to send their children to school rather than having them work as farm labourers.KY 2NC Poverty Turn---Ag Key Growth in agriculture key to solving poverty Homi Kharas.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 In the last analysis.economist. And it started with a rise in food prices. One blogger commenting on this debate offered a nice example of this process at work. .” The Economist. When Vietnam liberalised and raised rice prices in the 1990s.com/debate/index. August 6. These educated children are today fuelling Vietnam’s rapid growth. http://www. The country has seen arguably the fastest decline in poverty in history. Higher farmgate prices are a key element for this to happen.
Our global food production system was under severe threat in the early years of this century.com/debate/index. Could anything have generated a successful change to encourage more production in the absence of higher food prices? I think not.KY 2NC Poverty Turn---No Turns No risk of a turn. I would simply say that a system which failed to produce any marked change in hunger and poverty over a 30-year period of price declines was not working for the poor. . surely there is an upside to changing strategies. If a strategy has not worked for 30 years.low prices have entrenched poverty for 30 years Homi Kharas. August 6.economist. “The Proposition's closing statement.” The Economist.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 To all those who bemoan the hunger and hardship that higher food prices are causing for the poor. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. Let there be no mistake. http://www. Give a different system a chance. 2008. We needed a change.
such as education and health care. Two of these goals. poor health.vancouversun.25 a day . often irreversible. So was the goal of halving the proportion of people without safe drinking water.on less than $1. The first spike. which can have broad economic effects. Immediate consequences include both the erosion of consumer purchasing power. the report says. where a sizable proportion of the food consumed is imported. is estimated to have kept or pushed 105 million people below the poverty line. putting pressure on their limited financial resources." So this issue. at both household and country levels. and in the meantime people have to eat every day. one relating to gender parity in primary schools and one concerning primary school completion rates. Child malnutrition accounts for more than a third of the under-five mortality . June 12th. The effect of the higher food prices varies from region to region and country to country. farmers can be expected to ramp up production as much as they can to take advantage. are on track or close to it.was reached in 2010. and are thus cushioned a bit.org/operations/food/) Food price trends have a major impact on food security. Price hikes for cereals and other staples can force them to cut back on the quantity or quality of their food. April 25th. a full five years ahead of schedule. But in many parts of Ethiopia. The effect is worst in poor countries such as Bangladesh. during the global recession of 2008. And poor nutrition can only make them worse.and malnutrition during pregnancy." the report notes.) When needed to help earn income for the family. according to the World Bank's latest Global Monitoring Report. But a 2011 spike in food prices. yet higher and more volatile food prices are undermining overall progress and trapping millions of families in relentless poverty. for more than a fifth of maternal mortality. price hikes can affect low-income. and impaired cognitive development set children on lower. and this should help ease prices. Indirect effects include reduced remittances from relatives who find work abroad and a sudden influx into the informal sector of workers who lose their jobs.com/business/High+food+prices+halt+progress+many+world+poor/6515030/ story. When they occur globally. http://www. "Even temporarily high food prices can affect children's long-term development. especially for the urban poor. Countries such as Ethiopia. Undernourishment increases disease and mortality. Price spikes can also limit the ability of poor households to meet important non-food expenses. development paths. Vicious circles of malnutrition. Cambodia or Kenya. The second spike in 2010-11 increased that number by more than 10 per cent. and reduced nutritional intake. Food price hikes wreck the poor IFAD 12 (Higher and volatile food prices and poor rural people. which I recently visited to look into food-related issues. food importing countries. drought has sorely reduced local harvests. which can have serious health consequences . even if it's short-lived.KY 2AC Poverty Turn High food prices halt progress for the poor – this directly answers their increased production warrant Cayo 12 (Don. the second in three years.especially for young children. particularly for children. This may result in food insecurity and malnutrition. which makes things worse. could have a continuing and serious effect on at least a couple of the other four Millennium Development Goals. the report says.ifad. But it takes time for new crops to grow. produce most of their own food. Many of the world’s poorest people spend more than half their income on food. with tragic implications in both the short and long term. http://www. or they're feature-length report on my Ethiopia visit is to be published in The Sun on May 5. which reduces income for all. Higher food prices have a particularly negative impact on food security when prices spike suddenly or reach extremely high levels. and it is both direct and indirect. As well. those concerning child and maternal mortality. as well as in neighbouring countries in the Horn of Africa. (A prices rise. "Early life conditions [from conception to two years of age] provide the foundations for adult human capital . undermined some of the value of these gains. But two others.html#ixzz1ykW8aC2R) The world has attained two important Millennium Development Goals well ahead of the UN's 2015 target. lowers productivity and can have severe lifelong effects. are seriously lagging. And – Farmers don’t produce enough food to benefit from high prices . High food prices halt progress for many of the world's poor. So the short-term problem can be acute. The best news is that the key goal of reducing by half the number of people who in 1990 lived in abject poverty . millions of children either have not started or have withdrawn from school because their families can't afford the small cost of attendance .
October 10. http://www. let alone to sell any.org/stories/rising-food-prices-10-questions-answered) Aren’t high food prices good for poor farmers? High food prices could represent an opportunity for people who make a living from agriculture. High Food Prices: 10 Questions Answered.KY WFP 11 (World Food Programme.wfp. The trouble is that many of these people don’t produce enough food even for themselves. Many do not have access to the markets where prices are higher nor the resources they need for inputs like fertilizer to increase their yields. .
Expanded Academic ASAP) FOR THE next several decades. including SA18 and SA 7 surface-to-air missiles. Heavily inhabited by Muslims. http://www.dtic. "In all countries we see links between cultivation and security. pg.000 acres in 2008.htm) The simple fact is the average global yields are far.KY 1NC Opium Turn Opium production declining now Jim Michaels 6/12 “Afghan poppy crops down 40% since '08 as key towns secured. who then need to be told what to do by the government. we might term this crucial subregion of Eurasia the new "Global Balkans. "The areas that are more secure are where we had less opium.have extremely poor yields.rediff.usatoday. Brzezinski." Higher food prices cause afghan farmers to transition away from growing opium Shah 8 (Ajay. There are reports that in Afghanistan. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. This year farmers grew poppy on about 143. the most volatile and dangerous region of the world--with the explosive potential to plunge the world into chaos--will be the crucial swathe of Eurasia between Europe and the Far East. . "Hegemonic quicksand. Vast tracts of land in the world -. according to Regional Command Southwest. Office on Drugs and Crime. May 24.50 That “Albanian Islamists” and the KLA in Kosovo “have used $4 million in profits from Afghan heroin.”51 There is no doubt that the heroin from Afghanistan continues to flow through the Balkans . pg. in India -. has been going on for centuries. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is an ally of the Taliban and al-Qaeda49 and also benefits from the opium trade. The socialist vision sees humans as inflexible and slightly stupid." said Angela Me. Zbigniew. of prices sending out signals and yields then going up. an analyst at the U." The National Interest 74 (Winter 2003): 5(12). far-reaching changes take place in response .e. down from its peak of nearly 256. High prices generate the incentives for increasing yield. farmers have switched from growing opium to wheat owing to higher wheat prices! Opium trade threatens instability in the Balkans Duncan 7 (Thomas A. They have also targeted US forces in Afghanistan as well as US diplomatic facilities in central Asia in recent years. http://www.com/money/2008/may/24food. The Balkans are the most likely scenario for global war Brzezinski 3 (a professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies." (1) It is here that America could slide into a collision with the world of Islam while American-European policy differences could even cause the Atlantic Alliance to come unhinged. The Opium trade through the Balkans clearly undermines NATO efforts to maintain long term peace in the region. and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia facilitate opium smuggling and use the trade as a source of revenue to achieve their local aims. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is seeking to overthrow the government of Uzbekistan to establish an Islamic regime across central Asia. to purchase weapons.000 acres in Helmand province.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA470654&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc. When prices change.g. which they sold in European cities.N.pdf) There are many other guerrilla-terrorist organizations that benefit from the Afghan drug trade. far below what is possible with contemporary science. The single great idea of economics is that people respond to incentives.52 Any illicit trade that strengthens local criminals or the potential resurgence of any armed group could provide the spark that reignites a Balkan conflict. The two eventualities together could then put the prevailing American global hegemony at risk. This process..” 2012 http://www. many of which counter US national interest. a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.com/news/world/story/2012-06-12/poppyafghanistan-opium/55655966/1 Poppy cultivation in Afghanistan's key opium producing region has declined 40% over the past four years as coalition and government forces have secured key towns and villages and the Afghan government has ramped up eradication . Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA).
The overall reduction in cultivation is due to increased security. U.KY 2NC Opium Turn---UQ Opium production low Jim Michaels 6/12 “Afghan poppy crops down 40% since '08 as key towns secured. down from about 60% to 70% before the offensive. The United Nations said it expects to report that cultivation will be little changed this year.N. Afghan government eradication and programs designed to encourage farmers to shift to legal crops.” 2012 http://www. which hurt yields.com/news/world/story/2012-06-12/poppyafghanistan-opium/55655966/1 Afghanistan is the source of more than 90% of the world's heroin poppies. . forces ordered by the White House two years ago was concentrated in Helmand and the province's sprawling farming region of Marjah. said Wes Harris.usatoday. the agricultural adviser for the regional command. the regional command said. It was the second time in the past three years that yields were hurt by weather. Much of the initial surge of U. and most of the crop comes from Helmand." Harris said of narcotics traffickers. and military officials said. "Life has not been good for them this year.S. The coalition command in Helmand expects to see a 6% to 7% decline in cultivation this year over last. a key poppy growing area largely controlled by insurgents. Poppy farmers were slammed with uncooperative weather this year. Only about 5% of Marjah's farmland is growing poppy today.
. combined with the global impact of rising food prices. higher farm-gate wheat prices (because of shortages). the drop was down to farmers deciding not to plant poppies. http://www. As wheat prices tumble in markets overflowing with the crop. Crucially. particularly in the north and north-west where most cultivation is rain-fed. and we have reverse casual evidence. A major survey of farmers' intentions conducted by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in late 2003 found that 61 percent of farmers interviewed cited poverty and the high prices of opium as the primary motivation for poppy cultivation.irinnews. and that was largely a result of a successful pre-planting campaign. http://www.low food prices cause resurgence in opium Irin News 8 (pg.independent. nothing compares with the price of opium. pg.5 per cent of the country's poppy fields were eradicated in 2008. This. http://www.unodc.KY 2NC Opium Turn---XT Link high wheat prices causing a shift away from opium The Independent 8 (pg. but bumper yields meant opium production only fell by 6 per cent.org/documents/data-and-analysis/ExSum25August-standard. however. and lower farm-gate opium prices (because of excess supply) have significantly improved the terms of trade of food: this may provide further incentive to shift crops away from drugs.html 10/14) There was a 19 per cent drop in cultivation from 2007 to 2008. increasing significantly its domestic price.co. led by strong provincial governors. High wheat prices and low opium prices are also a factor in persuading some farmers to switch to licit crops. is the price. is creating a food crisis. Only 3.aspx?InDepthId=21&ReportId=63020) The key attraction . like wheat.pdf) Second. high wheat prices key to checking opium UNODC 8 (UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Yet. The same drastic weather conditions also hurt other crops. drought contributed to crop failure.org/InDepthMain.uk/news/world/asia/the-big-question-why-is-opium-production-rising-in-afghanistan-and-can-it-bestopped-960276. in parts of the country that are relatively safe.
the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Opium drug trade moves to Europe through Pakistan. western authorities claim many of the Islamic groups affiliated with al Qaeda in Europe and Southeast Asia have turned to financing themselves and that dealing in narcotics has become one of their mainstays. Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. or the Balkans. trade routes.dtic. the religionization of politics. biological.45 Most of Afghanistan’s poppy products end up in Europe. such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism. 2001. August 28. Israel and its citizens. According to British Lieutenant Colonel Rochelle. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e. to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. thus far at least. . LN) Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that the international community failed. pg. Turkey. contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. that on September 11.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA470654&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. Why are the United States and Israel. and Chechnya. The opium trade appears to be growing in importance to terror organizations . the United Kingdom is in Afghanistan as part of international community effort to stabilize the country and also because 90 percent of the heroin in the United Kingdom (UK) originates in Afghanistan. as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons. Al-Qaeda.. Terrorism Leads to Extinction Alexander 3 (Yonah. guerilla-insurgent.46 Understanding the opium trade routes enables us to understand how terror. nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national. Major opium trade routes leave Afghanistan in all directions to the international consumer markets. to Moscow Central Asia. radiological. and local insurgent-guerrillas. are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. It is not surprising. and criminal groups are benefiting from the trade at every stop along the route. including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion. the US military have to examine the connections between the international terror organizations. chemical.g. To understand how money is made by many terror guerilla and criminal organizations on the trade route. to the US through Pakistan. and they cannot stop identifying these new sources and reducing or stopping them. Washington Times. Russia.”43 It has also been reported by DEA sources following the 2001 war in Afghanistan that “al-Qaeda gave large sums of money to Afghan farmers to increase opium production.”44 It appears the US and their allies have had some success reducing the amount of financial support available to international terror organizations in recent years. double standards of morality. despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago. regional and global security concerns. and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. Ehrenfeld (2003) states “With many channels of funding cut off or curtailed since 11 September 2001. http://www. Unlike their historical counterparts. Likewise.pdf) The US and her allies appear to have had success cutting into funding to terror organizations. but they will continue to look for new sources of funding. Hizbollah.KY 2NC Opium Turn---Terrorism Impact opium financing causes global terrorism Duncan 7 (Thomas A. the Central Asian Republics. weak punishment of terrorists. therefore. and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) all have benefited from their role in the Afghani opium trade.
Professor or Economics at the University of Ottawa." A recent intelligence report by Germany's Federal Criminal Agency suggests that: "Ethnic Albanians are now the most prominent group in the distribution of heroin in Western consumer countries. Economic collapse created an environment which fostered the progress of illicit trade. were drafted into the ranks of the KLA . is presently  being investigated for his contacts with Islamic terrorist organizations ." another grower told the Times. "The poppy is always good. Bashkim Gazidede. a poppy grower in Oruzgan province. Turkish and Afghan instructors were reported to be training the KLA in guerrilla and diversion tactics. "it is estimated that 4-6 metric tons of heroin leave each month from Turkey having [through the Balkans] as destination Western Europe. many impoverished farmers will likely turn to opium as a cash crop.. And the Bosnian pattern was replicated in Kosovo: Mujahadeen mercenaries from various Islamic countries are reported to be fighting alongside the KLA in Kosovo. Office on Drugs and Crime in Afghanistan.. said. the rate of unemployment increased to a staggering 70 percent (according to Western sources). And a large part of drug shipments originating in Turkey transits through the Balkans . May 27 (UPI) -. you can sell it whenever and get cash.” Online Industry and agriculture in Kosovo were spearheaded into bankruptcy following the IMF's lethal "economic medicine " imposed on Belgrade in 1990." c. The Times said the current poppy crop in southern Afghanistan is expected to be lower this year due to bad weather and blight. Ethnic Albanians and Serbs were driven into abysmal poverty. "Some money is available through the licit economy. The latter objective was also carried out "by turning a blind eye" to the influx of mercenaries and financial support from Islamic fundamentalist organisations." b. reportedly a devout Moslem who fled Albania in March of last year . told The New York Times.” Online Bonn and Washington's "hidden agenda" consisted in triggering nationalist liberation movements in Bosnia and Kosovo with the ultimate purpose of destabilising Yugoslavia. Albania is also a key point of transit of the Balkans drug route which supplies Western Europe with grade four heroin. Thousands of unemployed youths "barely out of their teens" from an impoverished population." Jean-Luc Lemahieu.KY 2AC Opium Turn Non-unique---opium production high now UPI 5/27 “Growth in Afghan poppy crops expected” 2012 http://www. I cannot make a profit." Afghanistan has pledged to continue its efforts to eradicate poppy crops and steer farmers into legitimate crops. .N. Afghanistan. though with the Americans shipping out by 2014 and Afghanistan's economy still weak. The embargo was imposed on Yugoslavia. informal economy will increase.The withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan will likely result in a new surge in the production of opium poppies. German. financial support from Islamic countries to the KLA had been channelled through the former Albanian chief of the National Information Service (NIS). In Kosovo. "I don't have any cash now to start another business. “The KLA: Gangsters. and so the importance of the illicit." Some Afghan farmers said they indeed had little choice but to turn to the profitable poppy. and if I grow any other crops. Seventy-five percent of the heroin entering Western Europe is from Turkey. director of the U. Terrorists and the CIA. economic collapse Chossudovsky 99 Michel. but less than in the past as Western contracts dry up. Financial support from radical groups Chossudovsky 99 Michel. you can sell it at any time. Mercenaries financed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had been fighting in Bosnia. But the consequence will likely be that poppies from other parts of the country will fetch a much higher price for the struggling farmers. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). “The KLA: Gangsters.. Professor or Economics at the University of Ottawa. officials concede the economics of the situation and the likelihood of corruption among local police make the task difficult. According to a Deutsche Press-Agentur report. "It is like gold. “The KLA: Gangsters. Poverty and economic collapse served to exacerbate simmering ethnic tensions.upi. "Gazidede. Alt causes a.” Online The supply route for arming KLA "freedom fighters" are the rugged mountainous borders of Albania with Kosovo and Macedonia.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/05/27/Growth-in-Afghan-poppy-cropsexpected/UPI-16031338132834/ KABUL. Terrorists and the CIA. Professor or Economics at the University of Ottawa. 75% percent of the drug money is from Turkey Chossudovsky 99 Michel. Terrorists and the CIA." Mohammed Amin. "The prognosis post-2014 is not a positive one. counter-narcotics experts predicted. The United States has been leading a long battle to snuff out the Afghan opium industry.. Still..
It increased by 61 per cent last year alone. Three weeks after the attack on America’s Twin Towers on September 11. 10/11/11. There was some success but. Declaring that the West had lost its war against the drug. Afghan drug war debacle: Blair said smashing opium trade was a major reason to invade but 10 years on heroin production is up from 185 tons a year to 5. ‘Drug trafficking and transnational organized crime undermine the health of fragile states. Experts say the Taliban’s involvement in the drugs trade ranges from direct assistance – such as providing farmers with seed.5. the Afghan government must prioritise the issue of narcotics. Britain alone has spent an estimated £18billion – a further £4billion is said to have been earmarked for this year – in Afghanistan. Such has been the failure to combat the problem that more than 90 per cent of the heroin sold on Britain’s streets is still made using opium from Afghanistan.’ The UN figures make grim reading for those who backed the invasion. up from 14 a year ago. This fell in figures for 2010 because of crop disease. where 398 of its troops have died and thousands have been injured.co. producing some 5. who was fatally wounded by small arms fire during an insurgent attack on Monday in Helmand Province – the heart of the opium industry. Cutting the supply of heroin was one of the prime reasons given by then-prime minister Tony Blair in 2001 for sending in British troops. 33 times its level in 2001. cited a 2011 UN survey saying that poppy cultivation has increased by 7 per cent and opium production by 61 per cent in the past year.dailymail. the ‘reality’ was that forces were too thinly stretched to focus on crop destruction – a move that. Zarar Ahmed Moqbel Osmani.co.the main ingredient of heroin.KY 1AR Opium Turn---XT UQ Opium production has actually increased Williams 12 (David. February 17th.html) The West is losing the heroin war in Afghanistan – ten years after Tony Blair pledged that wiping out the drug was one of the main reasons for invading the country. turned farmers against the troops.6billion each year. opium poppy cultivation was reduced by 91 per cent from the previous year’s estimate of 82. fertiliser and cash advances – to distribution and protection. As a result of this ban. However.800. anyway. http://www. Ban Kimoon.100 tons.172 hectares. in his opening comments. with the overthrow of the Taliban opium fields returned.606 in 2001 under the Taliban. with vast profits used to buy weapons and fuel the insurgency. Afghani Opium production is rising BBC 11(BBC. “Afghan opium production rises by 61% compared with 2010”. according to a UN report.000 in 2005 and 7. 2001. ‘Above all. which had accounted for more than half of this production.800 tonnes this year .uk/news/world-southasia-15254788) Opium production in Afghanistan rose by an estimated 61% this year compared with 2010.’ he said. the Taliban had overseen a significant fall in heroin production in the months before the invasion.’ But ten years later. despite the destruction of crops by coalition forces and initiatives to persuade farmers to switch to other produce. The most recent was Senior Aircraftman Ryan Tomlin. Mr Blair said: ‘The arms the Taliban are buying today are paid for by the lives of young British people buying their drugs on British streets. This is another part of their regime we should seek to destroy.’ A report by the UN Office of Drugs and Crime said revenue from opium production in Afghanistan soared by 133 per cent last year to about £900million after the crop recovered from a 2010 blight and approached previous levels. He urged the international community to work hard in preventing the components needed to turn opium into heroin from entering Afghanistan from neighbouring countries. recorded no poppy cultivation during the 2001 season. a 3. said his country understood international concerns but noted that ‘95 per cent of poppy cultivation takes place in nine insecure provinces’.uk/news/article-2102158/Heroin-production-Afghanistan-RISEN-61.200 per cent increase in five years. http://www. Last year opium production halved largely due to a plant infection which drastically reduced yields. Officials say there is clear evidence that the opium trade is being orchestrated by the Taliban. The rise came even though the Afghan government and Nato have boosted crop eradication measures by 65 per cent and made significant seizures in recent months. the Afghan minister. Some 15 per cent of Afghanistan’s Gross National Product now comes from drug-related exports – a business worth up to £1. The increase has been attributed to rising opium prices that have driven farmers to expand cultivation of the illicit opium poppy by 7% in 2011. the UN Secretary General warned that the problem extends beyond those who abuse drugs and is threatening Afghanistan itself.800 tons of opium. The UN says there are now 17 provinces in Afghanistan affected by poppy cultivation.000 hectares were under cultivation.000 hectares compared with 104. but the UN figures show that it increased sharply again last year when 131. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime estimated that the 2006 harvest was around 6. Despite spending £18billion and a conflict which has so far cost the lives of almost 400 British troops. Analysts say that revenue from the drug has helped fund the Taliban .800 tons. Cultivation in 2006 reached a record 165. The United Nations yesterday warned that the situation was out of control. In his opening address to the Vienna conference. Ironically.bbc. a glum UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon added: ‘Time is not on our side. resulting in one of the world’s most successful anti-drug campaigns. (and) weaken the rule of law. Their leader Mullah Mohammed Omar – collaborating with the UN – had decreed that growing poppies was un-Islamic. from 2 Squadron RAF Regiment. Afghanistan produces 90% of the world's opium . commanders said. production of the class-A drug by Afghan farmers rose between 2001 and 2011 from just 185 tons to a staggering 5. it was claimed. The ban was so effective that Helmand Province. the UN figures reveal how the outcome has been so dramatically different. The warning came at a meeting in Austria of more than 50 countries.
insurgency. Farmers who responded to the survey described economic hardship and lucrative prices as the main reasons for the increase. Nearly 80% of the opium grown in Afghanistan is being produced in
provinces in the south, including Helmand and Kandahar, which are among the most volatile in the country. The UN says this demonstrates that there is a clear link between insecurity and opium cultivation.
Opium production has continued to rise throughout the decade
Williams 12 (David, journalist, “Afghan drug war debacle: Blair said smashing opium trade was a major reason to invade but
10 years on heroin production is up from 185 tons a year to 5,800, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2102158/Heroinproduction-Afghanistan-RISEN-61.html#ixzz1ykokVMTF”, 2/17/12,
The West is losing the heroin war in Afghanistan – ten years after Tony Blair pledged that wiping out the drug
almost 400 British troops,
was one of the main reasons for invading the country. Despite spending £18billion and a conflict which has so far cost the lives of
production of the class-A drug by Afghan farmers rose between 2001 and 2011 from just 185 tons to a staggering 5,800 tons. It increased by 61 per cent last year alone. The United Nations yesterday warned that the situation was out of control. Declaring that the West had lost its war against the drug, a glum UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon added: ‘Time is not on our side.’ The UN figures make grim
reading for those who backed the invasion. Cutting the supply of heroin was one of the prime reasons given by then-prime minister Tony Blair in 2001 for sending in British troops. Three weeks after the attack on America’s Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, Mr Blair said: ‘The arms the Taliban are buying today are paid for by the lives of young British people buying their drugs on British streets. This is another part of their regime we should seek to destroy.’ Warning: UN Secretary General Ban Kimoon has said the drug problem in Afghanistan threatens the entire country with organised crime and trafficking But ten years later, the UN figures reveal how the outcome has been so dramatically different. Some 15 per cent of Afghanistan’s Gross National Product now comes from drug-related exports – a business worth up to £1.6billion each year, it was claimed. Officials say there is clear evidence that the opium trade is being orchestrated by the Taliban, with vast profits used to buy weapons and fuel the insurgency. The warning came at a meeting in Austria of more than 50 countries. Britain alone has spent an estimated £18billion – a further £4billion is said to have been earmarked for this year – in Afghanistan, where 398 of its troops have died and thousands have been injured. The most recent was Senior Aircraftman Ryan Tomlin, from 2 Squadron RAF Regiment, who was fatally wounded by small arms fire during an insurgent attack on Monday in Helmand Province – the heart of the opium industry.
With troops leaving Afghanistan, The opium trade will explode
(Ben, Afghani correspondent for The Telegraph, “Afghan opium production to explode as foreign troops withdraw”, 11-25-11, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/8915644/Afghan-opium-production-toexplode-as-foreign-troops-withdraw.html) Taliban insurgents and farmers will take advantage of the withdrawal to increase poppy production, said General Khodaidad.
Afghanistan already produces more than 90 per cent of the world's opium and more than 95 per cent of the heroin on Britain's streets, but he predicted the trade would soon be "completely out of control". Britain has spent tens of millions of pounds on counter narcotics schemes in the
past six years in Helmand. The province remains the world centre of opium production. Gen Khodaidad, who was minister for counter narcotics for four years, said the industry was thriving on Afghan insecurity, corruption and weak government. He said: "The Taliban is stronger than this present government and that directly affects poppy cultivation." "The Taliban explains to the farmer that the foreign troops are leaving and if you grow poppy, I am still here." The Taliban are estimated to raise
annually between £60 and £250 million a year through the trade. High opium prices meant production rose nearly seven percent this year according to the latest United Nations estimates
1NC Warming Turn
High food prices solve global warming Brasher 8 (Philip, 9/14, pg. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080914/BUSINESS03/809140321/-1/NEWS04)
So, it would seem to follow that if food prices go up because commodity prices are rising, well, that's only fair. Americans spend on average 10 cents of every dollar of their income on food. But what if Americans respond to inflation by eating less? Some environmentalists and experts in nutrition consider that a good idea. Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the United Nations' panel on climate change, recently called for
people to consider eating less meat as a way of controlling global warming. Livestock production accounts for an estimated 18 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. That estimate accounts for everything from the fuel used to produce feed and livestock to the impact of
clearing forests for growing feed crops. He told the BBC that "among options for mitigating climate change, changing diets is one thing we should consider." Soaring food prices could be one way to do that. Keith-Thomas Ayoob, a pediatric nutritionist who teaches at New York's Albert Einstein College of Medicine, said at a recent food policy conference that rising prices can be a way to get people to prepare more healthful foods and eat out less.
Global warming is real and happening now---the impact is extinction Kaku 11 Michio Kaku is the Professor Theoretical Physics at City College of New York, Theoretical Physicists, Co-Founder of String Theory, Physics of the
Future By midcentury, the full impact of a fossil fuel economy should be in full swing: global warming. It
is now indisputable that the earth is heating up. Within the last century, the earth’s temperature rose 1.3° F, and the pace is accelerating. The signs are unmistakable everywhere we look:
The thickness of Arctic ice has decreased by an astonishing 50 percent in just the past fifty years. Much of this Arctic ice is just below the freezing point, floating on water. Hence, it is acutely sensitive to small temperature variations of the oceans, acting as a canary in a mineshaft, an early warning system. Today, parts of the northern polar ice caps disappear during the summer months, and may disappear entirely during summer as early as 2015. The polar ice cap may vanish permanently by the end of the century, disrupting the world’s weather by altering the flow of ocean and air currents around the planet. Greenland’s ice shelves shrank by twenty-four square miles in 2007. This figure jumped to seventy-one square miles in 2008. (If all the Greenland ice were somehow to melt, sea levels would rise about twenty feet around the world.) Large chunks of Antarctica’s ice, which have been stable for tens of thousands of years, are gradually breaking off. In 2000, a piece the size of Connecticut broke off, containing 4,200 square miles of ice. In 2002, a piece of ice the size of Rhode Island broke off the Thwaites Glacier. (If all Antarctica’s ice were to melt, sea levels would rise about 180 feet around the world.) For every vertical foot that the ocean rises, the horizontal spread of the ocean is about 100 feet. Already, sea levels have risen 8 inches in the past century , mainly caused by the expansion of seawater as it heats up. According to the United Nations , sea levels could rise by 7 to 23 inches by 2100. Some scientists have said that the UN report was too cautious in interpreting the data. According to scientists at the University of Colorado’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, by 2100 sea levels could rise by 3 to 6 feet. So gradually the map of the earth’s coastlines will change. Temperatures started to be reliably recorded in the late 1700s; 1995, 2005, and 2010 ranked among the hottest years ever recorded; 2000 to 2009 was the hottest decade. Likewise, levels of carbon dioxide are rising dramatically. They are at the highest levels in 100,000 years. As the earth heats up, tropical diseases are gradually migrating northward. The recent spread of the West Nile virus carried by mosquitoes may be a harbinger of things to come. UN officials are especially concerned about the spread of malaria northward. Usually, the eggs of many harmful insects die every winter when the soil freezes. But with the shortening of the winter season, it means the inexorable spread of dangerous insects northward . CARBONDIOXIDE— GREENHOUSEGAS According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, scientists have concluded with 90 percent confidence that global warming is driven by human activity, especially the production of carbon dioxide via the burning of oil and coal. Sunlight easily passes through carbon dioxide. But as sunlight heats up the earth, it creates infrared radiation, which does not pass back through carbon dioxide so easily. The energy from sunlight cannot escape back into space and is trapped. We also see a somewhat similar effect in greenhouses or cars. The sunlight warms the air, which is prevented from escaping by the glass. Ominously, the amount of carbon dioxide generated has grown explosively, especially in the last century. Before the Industrial Revolution, the carbon dioxide content of the air was 270 parts per million (ppm). Today, it has soared to 387 ppm. (In 1900, the world consumed 150 million barrels of oil. In 2000, it jumped to 28 billion barrels, a 185-fold jump. In 2008, 9.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide were sent into the air from fossil fuel burning and also deforestation, but only 5 billion tons were recycled into the oceans, soil, and vegetation. The remainder will stay in the air for decades to come, heating up the earth.) VISIT TO ICELAND The rise in temperature is not a fluke, as we can see by analyzing ice cores. By drilling deep into the ancient ice of the Arctic, scientists have been able to extract air bubbles that are thousands of years old. By chemically analyzing the air in these bubbles, scientists can reconstruct the temperature and carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere going back more than 600,000 years. Soon, they will be able to determine the weather conditions going back a million years. I had a chance to see this firsthand. I once gave a lecture in Reykjavik, the capital of Iceland, and had the privilege of visiting the University of Iceland, where ice cores are being analyzed. When your airplane lands in Reykjavik, at first all you see is snow and jagged rock, resembling the bleak landscape of the moon. Although barren and forbidding, the terrain makes the Arctic an ideal place to analyze the climate of the earth hundreds of thousands of years ago. When I visited their laboratory, which is kept at freezing temperatures, I had to pass through thick refrigerator doors. Once inside, I could see racks and racks containing long metal tubes, each about an inch and a half in diameter and about ten feet long. Each hollow tube had been drilled deep into the ice of a glacier. As the tube penetrated the ice, it captured samples from snows that had fallen thousands of years ago. When the tubes were removed, I could carefully examine the icy contents of each. At first, all I could see was a long column of white ice. But upon closer examination, I could see that the ice had stripes made of tiny bands of different colors. Scientists have to use a variety of techniques to date them. Some of the ice layers contain markers indicating important events, such as the soot emitted from a volcanic eruption. Since the dates of these eruptions are known to great accuracy, one can use them to determine how old that layer is. These ice cores were then cut in various slices so they could be examined. When I peered into one slice under a microscope, I saw tiny, microscopic bubbles. I shuddered to realize that I was seeing air bubbles that were deposited tens of thousands of years ago, even before the rise of human civilization. The carbon dioxide content within each air bubble is easily measured. But calculating the temperature of the air when the ice was first deposited is more difficult. (To do this, scientists analyze the water in
the bubble. Water molecules can contain different isotopes. As the temperature falls, heavier water isotopes condense faster than ordinary water molecules. Hence, by measuring the amount of the heavier isotopes, one can calculate the temperature at which the water molecule condensed.) Finally, after painfully analyzing the contents of thousands of ice cores, these scientists have come to some important conclusions . They found that temperature and carbon dioxide levels have oscillated in parallel, like two roller coasters moving together, in synchronization over many thousands of years. When one curve rises or falls, so does the other. Most important, they found a sudden spike in temperature and carbon dioxide content happening just within the last century. This is highly unusual, since most fluctuations occur slowly over millennia. This unusual spike is not part of this natural heating process, scientists claim, but is a direct indicator of human activity. There are other ways to show that this sudden spike is caused by human activity, and not natural cycles. Computer simulations are now so advanced that we can simulate the temperature of the earth with and without the presence of human activity. Without civilization producing carbon dioxide, we find a relatively flat temperature curve. But with the addition of human activity, we can show that there should be a sudden spike in both temperature and carbon dioxide. The predicted spike fits the actual spike perfectly. Lastly, one can measure the amount of sunlight that lands on every square foot of the earth’s surface. Scientists can also calculate the amount of heat that is reflected into outer space from the earth. Normally, we expect these two amounts to be equal, with input equaling output. But in reality, we find the net amount of energy that is currently heating the earth. Then if we calculate the amount of energy being produced by human activity, we find a perfect match. Hence, human activity is causing the current heating of the earth. Unfortunately, even if we were to suddenly stop producing any carbon dioxide, the gas that has already been released into the atmosphere is enough to continue global warming for decades to come. As a result, by midcentury, the situation could be dire. Scientists have created pictures of what our coastal cities will look like at midcentury and beyond if sea levels continue to rise. Coastal cities may disappear. Large parts of Manhattan may have to be evacuated, with Wall Street underwater . Governments will have to decide which of their great cities and capitals are worth saving and which are beyond hope. Some cities may be saved via a combination of sophisticated dikes and water gates. Other cities may be deemed hopeless and allowed to vanish under the ocean, creating
mass migrations of people. Since most of the commercial and population centers of the world are next to the ocean, this could have a disastrous effect on the world economy. Even if some cities can be salvaged, there is still the danger that large storms can send surges of
water into a city, paralyzing its infrastructure. For example, in 1992 a huge storm surge flooded Manhattan, paralyzing the subway system and trains to New Jersey. With transportation flooded, the economy grinds to a halt. FLOODING BANGLADESH AND VIETNAM A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change isolated three hot spots for potential disaster: Bangladesh, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, and the Nile Delta in Egypt. The worst situation is that of Bangladesh, a country regularly flooded by storms even without global warming. Most of the country is flat and at sea level. Although it has made significant gains in the last few decades, it is still one of the poorest nations on earth, with one of the highest population densities. (It has a population of 161 million, comparable to that of Russia, but with 1/120 of the land area.) About 50 percent of the land area will be permanently flooded if sea levels rise by three feet. Natural calamities occur there almost every year, but in September 1998, the world witnessed in horror a preview of what may become commonplace. Massive flooding submerged two-thirds of the nation, leaving 30 million people homeless almost overnight; 1,000 were killed, and 6,000 miles of roads were destroyed. This was one of the worst natural disasters in modern history. Another country that would be devastated by a rise in sea level is Vietnam, where the Mekong Delta is particularly vulnerable. By midcentury, this country of 87 million people could face a collapse of its main food-growing area. Half the rice in Vietnam is grown in the Mekong Delta, home to 17 million people, and much of it will be flooded permanently by rising sea levels. According to the World Bank, 11 percent of the entire population would be displaced if sea levels rise by three feet by midcentury. The Mekong Delta will also be flooded with salt water, permanently destroying the fertile soil of the area. If millions are flooded out of their homes in Vietnam, many will flock to Ho Chi Minh City seeking refuge. But one-fourth of the city will also be underwater. In 2003 the Pentagon commissioned a study, done by the Global Business Network, that showed that, in a worst-case scenario, chaos could spread around the world due to global warming. As millions of refugees cross national borders, governments could lose all authority and collapse, so countries could descend into the nightmare of looting, rioting, and chaos. In this desperate situation, nations, when faced with the prospect of the influx of millions of desperate people, may resort to
nuclear weapons. “Envision Pakistan, India, and China—all armed with nuclear weapons—skirmishing at their borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and arable land,” the report said. Peter Schwartz, founder of the Global Business Network and a principal author of the Pentagon study, confided to me the details of this scenario. He told me that the biggest hot spot would be the border
between India and Bangladesh. In a major crisis in Bangladesh, up to 160 million people could be driven out of their homes, sparking one of the greatest migrations in human history. Tensions could rapidly rise as borders collapse, local governments are paralyzed, and mass rioting breaks out. Schwartz sees that nations may use nuclear weapons as a last resort. In a worst-case scenario, we could have a greenhouse effect that feeds on itself. For example, the melting of the tundra in the Arctic regions may release millions of tons of methane gas from rotting vegetation. Tundra covers nearly 9 million square miles of land in the Northern Hemisphere, containing vegetation frozen since the last Ice Age tens of thousands of years ago. This tundra contains more carbon dioxide and methane than the atmosphere, and this poses an enormous threat to the world’s weather. Methane gas, moreover, is a much deadlier greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. It does not stay in the atmosphere as long, but it causes much more damage than carbon dioxide. The
release of so much methane gas from the melting tundra could cause temperatures to rapidly rise, which will cause even more methane gas to be released, causing a runaway cycle of global warming.
Changing one's diet can lower greenhouse gas emissions quicker than shifts away from fossil fuel burning technologies. whose family raised beef cattle in Israel. February 20.). Between 1970 and 2002. annual global meat production is projected to more than double from 229 million tons at the beginning of the decade to 465 million tons in 2050. (In developed countries.5 tons of CO2-equivalent (in the form of all greenhouse gases) compared to a no-meat diet. Researchers Gidon Eshel and Pamela Martin concluded that dietary changes could make more difference than trading in a standard sedan for a more efficient hybrid car. Eshel. the comparable figures were 65 kilos and 80 kilos.Beyond that. total meat consumption in the developing world grew nearly five-fold over that period."Researchers at the University of Chicago compared the global warming impact of meat eaters with that of vegetarians and found that the average American diet . Mr. zero-emission fuel sources were available today. they would take many years to build and slowly replace the massive infrastructure our economy depends upon today.including all food processing steps results in the annual production of an extra 1. Christian Science Monitor. methane cycles out of the atmosphere in just eight years."Arguably the best way to reduce global warming in our lifetimes is to reduce or eliminate our consumption of animal products." writes Noam Mohr in a report for EarthSave International." says Dr.Methane could become a greater problem if the permafrost in northern latitudes thaws with increasing temperatures. What's more certain is that emissions of these gases can spike as humans consume more livestock products.KY 2NC Warming Turn---I/L Livestock is the largest contributor to warming. the number of people eating meat (and the amount one eats every year) has risen steadily. that's more than the emissions caused by transportation. which reduces annual CO2 emissions by roughly one ton a year. and livestock will soon be the biggest contributors to warming) Knickerbocker 7 Brad. because the turnover rate for farm animals is shorter than that for cars and power plants.Animal-rights activists and those advocating vegetarianism have been quick to pick up on the implications of the FAO report." . This makes livestock the fastest growing sector of global agriculture. releasing the gas now trapped below decaying vegetation."Even if cheap.) to 29 kilograms (64 lbs."It doesn't have to be all the way to the extreme end of vegan. unlike carbon dioxide which can remain in the air for more than a century. The latter two gases are particularly troubling . annual per capita meat consumption in developing countries rose from 11 kilograms (24 lbs. But methane has 23 times the global warming potential (GWP) of CO2 and nitrous oxide has 296 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. Mohr writes. "If you simply cut down from two burgers a week to one. "Similarly.(it’s key to methane that contributes more to warming and which is easier solved.) As population increased." he writes. so that lower methane emissions quickly translate to cooling of the earth. you've already made a substantial difference.As prosperity increased around the world in recent decades. which remains the main global warming culprit.even though they represent far smaller concentrations in atmosphere than CO2. according to the FAO. Lexis Altogether.
most common in the United States and Europe. Nature Magazine. which both chilled research in the area and reduced incentives for such technologies to be fielded in countries looking to European export markets.html This was not a sudden crisis. not to mention rice rationing at Wal-Mart's cash-and-carry stores. the smallest barely an inch long. the International Monetary Fund and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are also opening their coffers. On 2 April the World Bank announced its intention to double agricultural lending to sub-Saharan Africa over the next year. more and more corn (maize) goes to making ethanol. http://www. It took a French scientist and ecologist. higher yields. immediately after the last ice age. indeed. other things being equal. and there are a lot of poor farmers in the world who could do with such a boost.the Indus. healthy soil with high amounts of organic matter and vice versa. but food prices have been rising since 2000. the largest a ten-foot giant in Australia. Public spending on basic agricultural research fell during the 1980s and 1990s in rich countries (see page 8). Many agriculture oriented people still do not understand or appreciate the tremendous enriching value that earthworms have on our soils. There are many useful directions for such development. much will be channelled through the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa led by Kofi Annan. But the more pressing problem for poor farmers is not the development of new technologies but access to those already there. In the United States. the lumbricid earthworms were to be found only in certain restricted areas of the planet. the . One reason for this is that poor people in poor countries who earn a little extra cash will spend it on basic local goods and services — agricultural growth spurs economic growth from the bottom up. And although the factors driving them are many and various. actually. red. An interim report released by the World Bank in April says that seven years' poverty reduction has been undone by the past two years of high staple-food prices. Not so. In the case of the Gates's money. eight times the number in the United States and four times the number in India. The World Bank's World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development (http://tinyurl.microsoil. the harvest is not what it might have been. Ten thousand years ago. Higher food prices. André Voisin. the bank noted with self-reproach — cites 700 published estimates of rates of return on investment in agricultural research. development and extension services in developing countries. purple. Nor is the crisis unremittingly heinous. and some of them are things no one should want to undo. It reports an average annual return of 43% . drought resistance and reduced requirements for inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides are all promising. agriculture expert. Voisin traces man's civilizations in relation to the distribution of active earthworms. mean higher farm incomes. blue. It may be only this spring that food prices have started sparking riots on the streets of Haiti and Egypt. raising the price of both corn and other cereals that can substitute for it. Resources need to go towards coordinating and strengthening local agricultural extension services as an integral part of revamping and reintegrating the research infrastructure. grows barely longer than six inches. to this logic. though South African newspapers reported a boa-constrictor-sized monster twenty feet long. too. Agricultural research systems in sub-Saharan Africa are fragmented into almost 400 distinct agencies. some backlash against intensified farming among green groups.htm Only where you find earthworms will you find rich. High food prices spark new research into crops which require less pesticides and fertilizers Declan Butler. Among the most ancient of terrestrial animal groups. There are various ways in which the fruits of scientific research might have helped ease the suffering that comes from this confluence of factors. 2004.KY 1NC Environment Turn 1. pink. The downslide was most pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa.” http://www. author of the insightful Soil. Lumbricus terrestris.com/2ngyqd) — the first of the annual reports to focus on agriculture for a quarter of a century. the pay-offs to agricultural research are massive. they come in various colors and sizes: brown. Earthworms simply cannot proliferate and flourish in areas where chemical fertilizers and pesticides are paramount. In Australia prolonged drought has had a severe effect on wheat production. bilateral farming aid from Europe dropped by two-thirds and World Bank lending in the sector slipped from 30% to 8% . January 20. Plenty of good agricultural science — such as locally adapted seed varieties and soil surveys — sits unused because it has not been delivered in a form adequately tailored to the end users and their limited means. and bank administrators say that a portion of the new money will go towards basic research. One might assume that such cutbacks in research reflected poor results. 2. a yard wide through the middle. Earthworms. In Better Grassland Sward. The past weeks have brought signs that global institutions and donors are beginning to bow. such as in the valleys of three great civilizations . not to mention making farm machinery more expensive to run.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/full/453001b.com/earthworm. belatedly. A contributing factor to this decline from the 1990s on was Europe's attitude to genetically modified crops. and. Pesticides kill earthworms – causes extinction. and in particular the slippery lumbricid. act as a barometer for soil health. 1 May 2008. The causes of these shortages are not easily undone. where the cutbacks were still severe even though there had been no Green Revolution comparable to that in Asia. Britain. green and light tan. to point out that the earthworm. Agriculture has poverty-busting powers beyond straightforward revenue increases. the net effect so far has been negative. is not only essential to good agriculture but is the very foundation of all civilization. The rises accelerated in 2006. In China and India there is ever more — and utterly reasonable — demand for a third meal in the day and more meat in the diet. The most common European and American earthworm. “A research menu. Grass and Cancer. when global cereal stocks dropped to levels not seen since the early 1980s. But although this may suggest benefits for some in the future. But here. of which he lists some three thousand species. Microsoil. a good few of them look likely to persist for years to come. A study of 42 developing countries covering the period from 1981 to 2003 found that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) that originated in agriculture increased spending by the poor two-and-a-half times more than does GDP growth in other sectors. High energy prices mean costly fertilizers and insecticides. The reasons for this included the perceived success of Green Revolution technologies in Asia. several hundred million years old. The proportion of US aid ploughed into agriculture wilted from 25% to 1% .
an English naturalist. digging. the they burrow. is strong indication that a complex civilization cannot develop until the basic agricultural needs of its people are met. touching in the region of the spermathecal openings. Worm castings." But wedged in the shoes of the colonists' horses were tiny lumbricid egg capsules. and. says Minnich. showed a predilection for celery. fertilizing. or by night crawlers on the surface when they come up to mate or draw leaves into their burrows. so named because they creep about at night on the surface of the earth. by actions of enzymes in their digestive tract. it ingests not only organic matter but the raw earth itself. distilling. rendering it pervious to rains and the fibers of plants by drawing straws and stalks of leaves and twigs into it. than any other method. Counts of earthworms ran as high as over four million per acre. It was estimated that during the six months of active growing season each year the castings of earthworms on these soils amounted to a stunning 120 tons per acre. The earth without worms would soon become cold. Under good conditions. PESTICIDES IMPACT. Some carry down leaves and other organic matter. And. and threading it with tunnels. though congenital scatophages. Castings. An earthworm is said to produce its own weight in castings each day it is on the prowl. grouped into larger units. most of all. and rearranging them to fertilize the soil? The former would appear to be more likely. feathers. they are constantly bathed in mucus. is a fine manure for grain and grass. Even when ample organic matter is available. held together by the intestinal fluid that makes for a finer-structured earth. night crawlers can spend a goodly portion of their nocturnal activities in the pursuit of sex. A cleric contemporary of Darwin complained that earthworms are also "much addicted to venery. and one worm alone can move a stone fifty times its own weight. once dried. when earthworms have no lungs . And the mucus. and by mixing the two produce a rich humus. indicated that the great fertility of the soil was due in large part the work of earthworms. earthworms gradually deepen the topsoil layer. it also helps hold the soil firm. Greatly enlarged. As Minnich says: "Before European contact. was writing: Worms seem to be the great promoters of vegetation. Real organic NPK! What's more. and in each handful of that soil are more microorganisms than there are humans on the planet. the worms have an immense impact on the soil.breathing through the whole surface of their skin. this mucus helps cement the walls of their tunnels. in a shorter time. and even with their pinhead brains they have the wit to pull them by the narrow end . They Copulate by exchanging sperm cells stored in cuplike hollows in the ninth and tenth segments. With the undersides of their bodies held firmly together by tiny bristles. loosening it. proliferating in direct proportion to the amount of organic matter incorporated into the soil. They can squeeze between and push apart the soil crumbs. producing a nutrient in just the right condition for the plant to absorb. in light sandy soils. slipping the ring off the body. More mucus secreted by the clitellum forms a jellylike ring. more than three times the maximum populations of the same species in their Old World habitats. Henry Hopp says these materials.which shows more wit than the leaf-gathering suburbanite who regularly spends a fortune to deprive the earthworm of his autumnal fare. One of the principal functions of the earthworm is to consume available mineral nutrients. more easily taken up by plants. with more plant nutrients than in the material from which it was derived. excellent as both a fertilizer and as a soil conditioner. perforating and loosening the soil. but generally in series marked by a definity and changing rhythm. on even an ordinary agricultural soil. and its ability to support everything that lives in or on it. Mixed in the crop with digestive chemicals and disintegrator bacteria. Conversely. An agricultural report on investigations carried out in the valley of the Nile in 1949. while it helps a worm worm its way out of a predator's grasp. C. feed on leaves. and. which they drag down into their burrows. and the Nile . . earthworms mix and sift the soils. In the northern part of North America the last ice age so stripped the country bare of earthworms that in very few areas of what is now the United States were agricultural lands rich enough to support even moderately large populations of native American Indians. but produced. are five times as rich in available nitrogen. prevents erosion. others bring nutrients and humus to the top. which being their excrement. an average red worm can produce from 150 to more than 200 young ones annually. with less effort.EARTHWORMS Could it be that these great sinusoid fertilizers actually transmute elements.is all the more amazing. tufts of wool. The source of all this fertility was what the worms excreted in the form of castings. the aggregates produced by earthworm castings act to improve the retention of water. bits of paper. before the folly of the Aswan Dam. In the process of producing its castings. . forming humus. and that requires the earthworm. astounded fellow scientists by asserting that earthworms have voices. usually deposited in old burrows. The lush meadows of New England. which help make a crumblike structure of the soil. the elements come out in different combinations. they lie with their heads pointing in opposite directions.where crops grew almost without cultivation in a soil of immensely fruitful richness. and farmers were not to trouble the worms for fear of stunting the renowned fertility of the Nilotic valley's soil. retaining moisture as it hardens. which helps them through the roughest ground. each possessing both male and female organs. neutralized by constant additions of carbonate of lime from three pairs of calciferous glands near the worm's gizzard. which can be found in the soil during the warmer months of winter. to form a tiny yellow cocoon. grows to five inches. and have a third more bacteria than the surrounding soil. Henry Hopp of the USDA estimates that one acre of good agricultural land can produce well over five tons of castings in a year. other areas of the earth offered ideal climates and rich soils. earthworms consume large amounts of soil. turning animal manure into sweet-smelling humus. Minnich reports that one Wisconsin commercial raiser of earthworms even chose to feed his charges ice cream as a treat on Saturday nights. That the phenomenon was understood before the time of Christ is clear from Cleopatra's decree that the earthworm be revered and protected by all her subjects as a sacred animal. during the three months of autumn. and eleven times as rich in available potash as anything else in the upper six inches of the soil. or horsehair. and silt. As they burrow. into a fructifying base. and in the root balls of European plants immigrant earthworms arrived to remedy the situation. and consequently sterile. and humus-making activities. and finely ground prior to digestion. while the soil thus treated holds the required moisture. and in the Nile Valley as many as two hundred tons. But the worms must be fed. dissolving even tough material such as stems and roots. no such civilizations. naturally improving the local pH factor as armies of earthworms work to keep the soil in balance. Continually rubbed off. claims that worms. clay. and void of fermentation. In no time a rich but dormant soil was transformed into one of high fertility. As Jerry Minnich points out in The Earthworm Book. containing mineral and organic matter in a soluble form. earthworms are credited with turning more than fifty tons of soil per acre. as the French savant Louis Karvran would have it. a red manure worm that inhabits compost heaps. earthworms can dispose of 90 percent of the fallen leaves. wild cherry leaves. compost of the highest grade. Earthworms can produce more compost. the only lumbricids native to the United States were some lacy species of Bismatus and Eisenia. they constantly adding nutrients to the zone in which plant roots feed. the eyeless earthworm ingests whatever appears before it in morsels fit for its toothless gums. with the exception of China. where water tends to run straight through to the subsoil. the great wheat fields of Canada are all attributed to the introduction of the earthworm. perfect in texture. Hill pastures that could barely support a stand of grass were gradually becoming lush and green even though no fertilizer was applied. do not dissolve again in water. says Minnich. Eisenia foetida. Merker. delivering mineral substances that would otherwise remain largely unavailable to most plants. their faint sound being "rarely in a solo number. Muscularly pumping through the soil. the castings are always more acidically neutral than the soil from which they were formed.aggregates being the formations of individual particles of sand. In an orchard. Merker claimed to be able to hear the sounds when within twelve feet of the worms." Dr. Gilbert White. consist of about one-third of the contents of the worm's intestines. especially plants that form the basis of our food supply. by throwing up such infinite numbers of lumps of earth called worm-casts.a white band a third of the way down their bodies touches the surface of its mate.KY Euphrates. its texture. a supply which must be kept up so long as one wishes to retain the earthworms. Earthworms are prodigious diggers and earth movers. Aristotle called the earthworm "the guts of the soil" because it produces particles that are smaller than when they enter. How this could be. as the American colonists were breaking away from the mother country. burrows drain superfluous water. or setae. By the early part of the twentieth century. including fat. The Egyptian experience alone. In classical Greek times. By digging into the subsoil. it looks like a lemon and contains scores of fertilized eggs. New Zealand soil scientists observed that European lumbricids were making vigorous inroads into the island's previously wormless soils. . Darwin. which picks up the worm eggs from ovaries and sperm cells from testes. Not that the point was entirely overlooked by the USDA. Egyptians were forbidden to remove it from the land. in pelletlike form. excluding a special mucus from the sexual region to protect the spermatozoa being mutually exchanged. sounds produced not by chance but by the deliberate opening and closing of the earthworms' mouths. seven times as rich in available phosphates. but cannot live without copious amounts of decaying organic matter. writing in the 1940's. where the clitter . essentially worthless as soil builders. Castings contain a higher percentage of aggregates than is found in the surrounding soil . who reported seeing burrows plugged with twigs. its fertility. By ripping up fine mineral particles and depositing them as castings on or near the surface of the soil. or are they merely collecting. easily . or more than 5 percent of the total soil volume to plow depth. and especially raw meat. With their mixing. capable of burrowing down as deep as fifteen feet. which is pumped through the bloodstream by five sets of double hearts in rings or segments close to the head . the vast farmlands of the upper Midwest. Thirty years before the birth of Darwin. Night crawlers. carrot leaves. Yet. and can actually sing. breaking up clods and burying stones. neither too acid nor too alkaline for the growth of plants. using sand and other mineral particles as grinding stones in its gizzard. burrowing. Experiments have shown that soils with earthworms drain from four to ten times faster than those without. moistened to dissolve oxygen. render them water soluble. More surprising still is his report that a German researcher." In suitable weather. even an entire night coupled to a willing hermaphroditic mate. hard-bound. An omnivorous and unfinicky eater. As Tunnels held together by their mucus afford planted roots quicker avenues into the soil.
without earthworms there would be no civilization. along with that of many of their associated colleagues in subsidized state universities. As Voisin points out. animals. to be made available in turn to the cells of plants. . and man. has traditionally been negative toward the earthworm. Henry Hopp. the attitude of USDA scientists. But Minnich complains that with the single exception of Dr.KY absorbable by the root hairs of plants.
For out there. The bees are simple disappearing. no more pollination. beekeepers have needed to use some sort of chemical control of these mites.” outburst of sniggering “Quiet! The rest of you can all stop laughing. has now lost at least a quarter of its estimated 2. over time they could reach a concentration at which they harm the bees as well. Is that one last little hand I see still up over there in the corner? And what is your name then?” “Albert Einstein sir. http://www. As their numbers dwindle.theolivepress. If pesticides used to control mites build up in the wax. Keep this up and you could make a bit of a name for yourself in biology. it appears that Einstein’s (possibly apocryphal) quote may shortly be put to the test. But the search for a cause is definitely narrowing . Germany. 2008. Aids? Hands down. . http://www.” “OK Albert. We’ll have our [healthy] queens laying eggs on both the collapsed colony combs and the control combs at the same time. Today. weep over polar bears and waste our time nit-picking over the details of scientific evidence for global warming. Increasingly large numbers of those busy aerial pollinators are leaving for a day in the fields and simply failing to return home from work. beekeepers have treated their hives with pesticides to combat two kinds of mites that parasitize the bees. For the past decade.an affliction which leaves no hives full of sick or dying bees. June 29. Ebola? An uprising of the undead? George W Bush? Nuclear War? Osama Bin Laden? No more hands left up I see. which is where CCD was first recognised and is assumed to have originated. first question is simple and direct. According to a small group of experts to whom nobody is listening. “I don’t think we really know what we’re up against with colony collapse disorder. leaving hives reminiscent of the Marie Celeste. it looks like I am going to have to tell you. What’s that you say Albert? Physics? No. Hmm.com/news04/2007/06/honey_bees. OK. With honeybees responsible for pollinating 80 per cent of our flowering crops. that has thinned things out a little. if they’re not treated and the use of these pesticides brings with them a risk of accumulation in the wax.” “If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe then Man would have only four years of life left. we should be in any doubt as to the potential consequences of this. “Well. Albert Einstein proclaimed this insect the most important factor in our food chain. more than three-quarters.” said Sheppard. as the World’s media focuses on spiralling food and energy prices. The research team has been looking into what has become known as “colony collapse disorder. no piles of little furry black and yellow bodies to mourn over. no more plants. more than one-third of everything you and I consume has reached our tables courtesy of a pollinating honeybee. While we panic over oil prices. if they visit fields and gardens that were recently treated with the chemicals. still less appear to care and it is largely ignored by environmental organisations and governments worldwide. and we’ll be doing some experiments to compare them with combs from healthy colonies. with serious outbreaks reported in Brazil. The United States. BOB MADDOX believes we must refocus our attentions and save the humble bumble bee “GOOD morning class.html While a number of theories have been advanced for the recent disappearance of millions of honey bees. he said. not too many left now. Switzerland . And no one knows how or why. The Olive Press. no more life. 2. And lest. Honeybee extinction causes human extinction. no more animals.” August 14. Pesticides are key cause of honeybee deaths Consumer Affairs.” “Go on Albert. researchers say the reason is most likely overexposure to pesticides.” Honey bees rear their young in waxy honeycomb which is re-used for several years.es/2008/08/14/forget-climate-change-the-bees-are-buzzing-off/ If bees became extinct today. Tell us how bees could possibly bring down the human race.consumeraffairs. “Normally. So why are honey bees so important? And why do we take them so much for granted that we appear to be largely ignoring a real threat to their survival as a species? Ignored threat The answer to the Honeybees form a critical part of the human food chain. Today were are going to be looking at what may possibly prove to be the greatest threat facing humanity today. Varroa mites will kill a colony within two years.KY 2NC Environment Turn---Honeybees Scenario 1.” Sheppard said the study should yield information about the potential role of pesticides in causing colony collapse by the end of the year.” when honey bees leave the hive and don’t return. That source of exposure has been a concern for beekeepers since pesticides came into wide use in the 1950s. Few people have heard of it. the United Kingdom and here in Spain. mankind would follow suit in 2012.” Well. “To keep bees.6 million honeybee colonies. Any guesses as to what it might be? Now hands down all those who think it is climate change. countless millions of our little friends the honeybees are simply vanishing across the world in an epidemic known as Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) . we have only to look to the horrors of Ethiopia to see what can happen when a food chain collapses. Now all those who go for bird flu. CCD appears to be going pandemic. Sheppard is testing whether something in the honeycomb of a failed colony will carry over and affect the health of a new brood of honey bees. No more bees. stick to what you are good at.lose the food chain. shrinking ice-caps and burning forests. Canada. “We’ve gotten some combs that were from colonies that suffered from colony collapse disorder. 2007. because Albert is absolutely right! Well done boy. And what do you think it might be then?” “Bees sir. it could be just around the corner. It is… hold on.” said Sheppard. Walter Sheppard and other researchers at Washington State University say that rather than being driven off by cell phone frequencies – as some have suggested – its more likely that the bees have simply been poisoned.S. France. especially on a commercial level. U. More alarmingly. Hmm. from the cloistered security of our overstocked Saturday supermarket shopping trips. a quieter and much deeper threat to our future may be taking shape. environmental organisations and governments appear not to care particularly either. “Forget Climate Change: The Bees are Buzzing Off. Sheppard said honey bees could also be exposed to pesticides during their foraging flights. Lose the Honeybee . that is my advice.
This is already happening in Asia and other parts of the world. because a system with food prices in free fall for 30 years did not produce any measurable decline in hunger and poverty.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 Are today’s food prices fair to producers and consumers? Yes. because without higher food prices. August 6. because higher food prices will bring about new investments in agriculture and higher global production.economist. South Asia. “The Proposition's closing statement. Yes. .KY 2NC Environment Turn---XT Link Higher food prices spur investment and research in agriculture Homi Kharas. http://www. 2008. But the last time food prices were as high as they are today we witnessed the Green Revolution and a rapid reduction of rural poverty in one of the largest population centres of the world. land use would shift towards corn-forethanol and other biofuel crops and we would have less food available.” The Economist. and will accelerate over time. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development.com/debate/index. Yes.
" the report said. 2001. Morocco. In America. prompting Indian leaders to take more aggressive preemptive and retaliatory actions. Other beneficiaries are in poor countries. Dec 6th 2007." Pakistan will be more fractious. you would conclude that dearer food was unequivocally a bad thing. which used to export food but no longer do so.2 billion. The changing dynamics of state power will combine with other factors to affect the risk of conflict in various regions. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil. Obviously. exposing southern Asia to the threat of a nuclear conflict. January 22. leading to continued deterioration in the overall quality of urban life. The CIA believes that "India will be the unrivalled regional power with a large military." it said. And a noticeable increase in the size of India's arsenal would prompt Pakistan to further increase the size of its own arsenal.com/displaystory. Food exporters such as India. destabilizing in its own right. In assessing the security situation in the region. “Cheap no more. farmers benefit—if governments allow them to keep the gains. The widening India-Pakistan gap.” LexisNexis The CIA has warned in a new report that economic disparities and political instability could cause another war between India and Pakistan. But dearer food is not a pure curse: it produces winners as well as losers. lawlessness. United Press International. the CIA said that "continued turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir and other areas of the subcontinent. the world's biggest agricultural exporter.5 is the mark of a highly unequal society. Differential population growth patterns will exacerbate inequalities in wealth. Ties between provincial and central governments throughout the region will be strained. which sparks nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan ANWAR IQBAL. “CIA warns of nuclear war. Both countries tested atomic devices in May 1998. The prairie farmers of the Midwest are looking forward to their Caribbean cruises. "although population growth rates in South Asia will decline. India's conventional military advantage over Pakistan will widen as a result of New Delhi's superior economic position.41 in 1993 to 0. In all these places governments are seeking to shelter their people from food-price rises by price controls. A dozen countries. that risk will remain fairly high over the next 15 years. being wary of China. the report said: "Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement. corruption and ethnic friction. Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. Egypt. who may significantly increase their role in national politics and alter the makeup and cohesion of the military. will be accompanied by deep political. Serbia and Ukraine. beginning a new stage of their nuclear race in one of the world's most-populated regions. The Asian Development Bank reckons that China's Gini coefficient rose from 0. Both will continue to build up their nuclear and missile forces. But will it? 2. but its need for oil and desire to balance Arab ties to Pakistan will lead to strengthened ties to Persian Gulf states as well. The percentage of urban dwellers will climb steadily from the current 25-30 percent of the population to between 40-50 percent. A score of 0. for example. and pollution of surface and groundwater will be a serious challenge. "Both India and Pakistan will see weapons of mass destruction as a strategic imperative and will continue to amass nuclear warheads and build a variety of missile delivery systems. the central government's control will probably be reduced to the Punjab heartland and the economic hub of Karachi. The report adds that. divisive politics. urban wages have outstripped rural ones. economic and social disparities within both states. the report . Argentina. In its Global Trends 2015 report. "India will also continue to build up its ocean-going navy to dominate the Indian Ocean transit routes used for delivery of Persian Gulf oil to Asia. About a score of countries have imposed food-price controls of some sort. India and Pakistan have also tested several types of ballistic missiles in their quest to acquire a dependable weapons delivery system. "India will look increasingly to the West. Given that commodity prices have been falling for so long in real terms. India and Pakistan are the world's two newest states which openly possess nuclear weapons." Since 1998.47 in 2004." "Water will remain South Asia's most vital and most contested natural resource. net farm income this year will be $87 billion. Changing military capabilities will be prominent among the factors that determine the risk of war. Argentina and Russia have done both. India and Pakistan are both prone to miscalculation. once Pakistan's most capable institution. Mexico and China have put restraints on domestic prices. isolated and dependent on international financial assistance. High food prices decrease rural-urban income gap in India The Economist. have imposed export taxes or limited exports. "Pakistan's projected growth from 140 million to about 195 million in 2015 will put a major strain on an economy already unable to meet the basic needs of the current population. In emerging markets an income gap has opened up between cities and countryside over the past few years. also stand to gain if they can boost their harvests. Vietnam. India's population alone will grow to more than 1.economist. As countries have diversified away from agriculture into industry and services. Countries such as Malawi and Zimbabwe. Income inequality causes social unrest. that could mitigate the growing gap between city and countryside. including naval and nuclear capabilities and a dynamic and growing economy. population still will grow by nearly 30 percent by 2015. "Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists.” http://www. this would be an enormous relief to places that have suffered from a relentless decline in their terms of trade." The agency also states that. 50% more than the average of the past ten years. including India. the Central Intelligence Agency says that "India most likely will expand the size of its nuclear-capable force. If farm incomes in poor countries are pushed up by higher food prices. the report said. "In South Asia. South Africa and Swaziland will gain from increased export earnings. Income inequality is conventionally measured using a scale running from zero to one called the Gini coefficient. The decisive shift in conventional military power in India's favor over the coming years potentially will make the region more volatile and unstable." Giving its projections on Pakistan's economic woes. Continued population and economic growth and expansion of irrigated agriculture over the next 15 years will increasingly stress water resources.KY 1NC India Turn 1. instability in south Asia.cfm?story_id=10250420 If you took your cue from governments.
Nuclear war between India and Pakistan would cause more than slaughter and destruction -." 3. ‘8 (Maggie. who chose India and Pakistan as one of several possible examples. "The smoke is the key and it is coming from these firestorms that build up actually several hours after the explosions. affecting crops.it would knock a big hole in the ozone layer. "The big surprise is that this study demonstrates that a small-scale. Because many of the region's waterways are interstate. the team at the University of Colorado reported. The University of Colorado's Brian Toon." Nothing natural could create this much black smoke in the same way. the soot would absorb radiation from the sun and heat surrounding gases." Mills said in a telephone interview. as well as to research about the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange. for example. The difference is we are talking about a large number of cities that would be bombed within a few days. This would let in enough ultraviolet radiation to cause cancer.destroys the ozone and ends all life on earth Fox. We saw these kinds of megafires in World War Two in Dresden and Tokyo. said the damage to the ozone layer would be worse than what has been predicted by "nuclear winter" and "ultraviolet spring" scenarios.cfm/newsid/47829/story. Deforestation in India and Nepal will exacerbate pollution. animals and people worldwide. "The sunlight really heats it up and sends it up to the top of the stratosphere. each with the power of the weapon the United States used to destroy Hiroshima in 1945. Reuters News. and land degradation in Bangladesh.planetark.com/dailynewsstory. . causing chemical reactions that break down ozone. US researchers said on Monday. "We are talking about modern megacities that have a lot of material in them that would burn. 25 percent to 45 percent at midlatitudes. regional nuclear conflict is capable of triggering ozone losses even larger than losses that were predicted following a full-scale nuclear war. April 8. flooding. "In India. Indo-Pak war is worse than nuclear winter. Volcanic ash. This could be typical of what you might see. Mill noted. damage crops and other plants and injure animals." said Michael Mills of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. "Certainly there is a growing number of large nuclear-armed states that have a growing number of weapons. Fires from burning cities would send 5 million metric tonnes of soot or more into the lowest part of Earth's atmosphere known as the troposphere." Mills' team wrote in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. and 50 percent to 70 percent at northern high latitudes persisting for five years. "We find column ozone losses in excess of 20 percent globally. with substantial losses continuing for five additional years. Up there. water could become a source of renewed friction. and heat from the sun would carry these blackened particles into the stratosphere. “India-Pakistan Nuclear War Would Cause Ozone Hole” http://www. and forest fires are not big or hot enough." Toon said in a statement. Mills and colleagues based their computer model on other research on how much fire would be produced by a regional nuclear conflict. per capita water availability is likely to drop by 50-75 percent. and Pakistan and India are believed to have at least 50 weapons apiece. who also worked on the study.htm) WASHINGTON .KY said. damage eyes and skin. dust and smoke is of a different nature. SMOKE IS KEY Eight nations are known to have nuclear weapons. Mills said the study added a new factor to the worries about what might damage the world's ozone layer." he said.
A recent study by the Carnegie Endowment probed the effect of food price changes in India. The rural-urban income gap continues to decline. Its 29 states have considerable autonomy in economic matters which explains why some are more business friendly. Within the next decade. He was previously Canada's High Commissioner to India as well as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the Philippines. It is a long-term value investment . boost productivity as workers leave the less productive rural sector. fearful of intense public scrutiny and a zealous media. Asia. http://www. A weaker rupee may help exports. Although exports have grown this past year. subject to ups and downs. Very few major economies have enjoyed continuous. “India's slowing growth not a worry in the long run”. India will account for the largest share of global consumption by 2030. For the same reason large corporate groups.com/article/88678--india-s-slowing-growth-not-a-worry-in-the-long-run Clearly the bloom is off the rose. and the Doha Round. but net financial flows have slowed and will likley decline further if the economy continues to struggle. The resulting fall-off in business investment is a major contributor to the current malaise. Decision-making has ground to a halt as ministers look over their shoulders. Trade. India is the second most populous country in the world with a median age of 26. The “bottom of the pyramid” will not be left behind. despite the economic malaise and current political paralysis. “it may not be perfect. Yet. it has not been enough to offset costly imports of energy and other commodities. On the rare occasion that a new policy is announced. “Rising Food Prices. ambitious and enterprising workforce has the potential to generate enough savings and investment to propel the country to among the top three global economies by 2030. have been unable to secure approvals for major investment projects. but ultimately rewarding for committed and patient investors. Inflation hovers over 7 per cent and the rupee has sunk to record lows against the dollar.carnegieendowment. Foreigners continue to invest in India. During the first three months of this year India’s economy grew 5. that can be sold in large volume locally and later adapted for sale globally. Such flip flops and the absence of needed reforms undermine business confidence. than others. http://www. but it is the best system available”. This is especially true for democracies whose leaders are subject to re-election and usually eschew unpalatable economic reforms. By 2025. Within the Congress Party-led coalition there are divisions inside the Party itself and between coalition members. India is also the world’s largest federation. but it will happen. By some estimates. will drive the economy and buffer it from the external shocks to which most other emerging markets are prone. For an economy roughly the size of Canada’s. even those with reputedly close links to government. It may take longer than some people predicted.KY 2NC India Turn---Econ Scenario India’s economy is on the rise and the income gap is declining Peter Sutherland 6/22 is the Vice-Chairman of the Canada-India Business Council and Senior Business Advisor. Has India’s bubble burst? Hopefully yes in the positive sense that inflated projections of future growth will be replaced by more realistic expectations. it is often quickly reversed in the face of heated opposition. the country with the largest number of poor in the world. The budget deficit has widened. but it expresses the popular will and therefore mitigates political risk. The resulting jump in discretionary spending. it is the only feasible system of government.canadianbusiness. India’s rapidly growing middle class will exceed 500 million people . another 130 million Indians will migrate to the cities. Democracy is one of India’s greatest strengths. The current account is also worsening. low-income products such as the Tata Nano city car. but the eurozone crisis will not. but only if a new wave of reforms provides them with the necessary skills and opportunities.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This disparity together with an increasing willingness to vote across caste and religious lines has resulted in the ouster of some non-performing state administrations and improved the performance of others. India’s long term prospects are undiminished. current account and governance. Its young. regulatory uncertainty and increasing tension between corporate India and the government. bloated by costly subsidies and generous welfare schemes while proposed tax reforms that would raise revenues are stalled. Aird & Berlis LLP. India suffers from three deficits: fiscal.5 percent growth expected this year isn’t shabby . Standard & Poor has warned that India could lose its investment grade rating and be downgraded to junk category if the situation doesn’t improve. Poverty. Equity and Development Program. A large trade deficit combined with slowing capital inflows is expected to push the current account deficit above 4 per cent of GDP this year. along with changing tastes and consumption patterns.3 per cent. For a country of India’s size and diversity. This will generate a surge in infrastructure building ($1 trillion over the next five years). India is the world’s largest democracy and arguably the most rambunctious. For these reasons projections that India will rank among the top three global economies are still credible. straight-line growth. fifty-four percent of the world’s poor live in India and China and thus the response of poverty in these two countries is an important component in assessing how changes in food prices will affect global poverty. Foreign and domestic investors alike are deterred by proposed tax changes. A series of high-profile scandals has implicated several ministers and further debilitated the government. and foster social integration in urban melting pots. 7 Using a general equilibrium . The fundamentals that have underpinned over 7 percent average growth during the past decade are still intact. Both the agriculture and manufacturing sectors have been hit by slowdowns while industrial output actually contracted. discourage investment and constrain growth. and consequently faster growing. the slowest rate in almost a decade and sharply down from 9 per cent last year. Formerly backward states such as Bihar and Orissa now exceed the national growth rate. MAY 2008. Senior Associate and Director. The biggest worry is a deficit in governance. Weakness at the centre has emboldened other states to flaunt their powers in areas affecting their interests. where over eighty percent of the population live on less than $2 per day. Indian democracy is slow moving and uneven. Rural India now accounts for close to half of GDP and will continues to spur innovative. High food prices reduce Indian poverty.pdf Overall.org/files/polaski__food_prices. The reformist instincts of Prime Minister Singh have been thwarted by the populist leanings of Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi and by regional partners such as Mamata Bannerjee in West Bengal.a reduction now would hurt the Indian economy Sandra Polaski. India should not be measured merely in terms of short-term growth. 6. To paraphrase Churchill. 2012. A prominent and potentially damaging example is the retroactive tax on foreign investors introduced ostensibly to nullify the impact of a Supreme Court judgement in favour of Vodafone.
partly due to its inward looking development strategy. http://www. Only the richest ten percent of rural households would lose from a price increase.” and “other backward classes”). India comes to the diplomatic table buoyed by its ever more formidable economic presence. at times. Afghanistan's ongoing crisis. exports. The drop in rice prices would reduce demand for unskilled labor in rice production sharply. India's relations with the United States and Europe were not well developed in the post-war period. Pakistan. That this wealth is being generated in the world economy is consequential.KY model to simulate the impact of different prices. as 92 million rural households in the bottom six deciles of income would experience some real income loss. while only 32 million urban households in the same deciles would experience income gains. and this. Pakistan's domestic turmoil and its historic rivalry with India. civil war in Sri Lanka. its socialist economic organization. 45. . almost by default. and the apparent failure of Soviet-style economic planning all compelled Indian leaders to revamp the country's international posture. but also with Europe. including private consumption. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of linkages between rural and urban labor markets is necessary to understand the impact of agricultural prices on the poor. government spending. the largest gainers were illiterate workers and disadvantaged groups. The impact on urban households was more varied. and total domestic production (Table 1). China and Russia have evolved substantially over the last decade. we found that an increase in the price of rice would benefit most poor households (Figure 4). the end of Cold War rivalry. India began to buy into the economic principles for which the West stood. the rise of religious extremism in the region. by almost twelve percent in the case of a fifty percent decline. A changing global order and rapid Indian growth have fostered conditions for India to redefine its place in the region and in the world. Real income would fall for all rural households except the richest ten percent. Displaced rural laborfers would spill over into urban unskilled labor markets. INDIAN GROWTH KEY TO PREVENT MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FOR REGIONAL ESCALATION NATO Parliamentary Assembly – ‘8 The Rise of the Indian Economy: Transatlantic and Global Implications. and tensions in Nepal are all flash points with varying implications for Indian security. with some poor households gaining slightly and others losing slightly. Illiterate urban workers from all disadvantaged groups would see their incomes rise.asp?SHORTCUT=1472 44. India clearly has welcomed the international community's efforts to help ease tensions in its immediate neighbourhood. The detailed household data we used included information on vulnerable social groups (defined in the Indian constitution as “scheduled tribes. Declines in the world price of rice would have negative effects on all major components of the Indian economy. its special relationship with Russia and its role in the non-aligned movement. The lowest income brackets of disadvantaged groups experience small income losses. while the results for other urban workers showed a mix of small gains and small losses with no consistent pattern. The results showed similar patterns but with more muted effects. The poorest households and the most disadvantaged groups saw the largest gains (up to six percent increase in income from a fifty percent increase in the price of rice). Most urban households would feel little impact from the price declines. India now holds a greater stake in the global trading and financial systems. either driving down wages or increasing unemployment. This alone endows it with a kind of weight that demands other great powers pay it close attention. The collapse of the Soviet Union. Yet. Seventy-eight percent of households would experience real income losses and the distributional impact would be regressive. overtly hostile. The overall effect of a decline in wheat prices could be to increase poverty. We found that labor markets played a largely positive role in transmitting price effects. and reduce overall demand for labor in the agricultural sector. Income increased for rural workers at all education levels and for both men and women.int/Default. Indian relations with the United States.nato-pa. imports. India's relations with China and Pakistan were also tense and. pointed a way toward improved relations with the United States in particular. investment. We conducted a similar exercise for increases and decreases in wheat prices. particularly over Kashmir. with the poorest households and disadvantaged groups in rural areas losing the most (Figure 5). India is increasingly making use of a plethora of bilateral and multilateral channels to ease tension and is far better positioned than it was during the Cold War to work towards this end with other great powers including the United States and China.” “scheduled castes. No longer mired in economic stasis. India's foreign policy has undergone a profound transformation since 1991 that has more or less paralleled its economic transition.
Their defense budgets are climbing despite widespread misery amongst their populations. The director of central intelligence. 2001. Both India and Pakistan are racing like thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery vehicles. and world experts generally place Kashmir at the peak of their nuclear worries. and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. the Defense Department. or indicated an inclination to ratify an impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention. It has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965. This apocalyptic vision is no idiosyncratic view. the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. p.KY 2NC India Turn---XT Impact Indo-Pak war escalates to nuclear conflict Washington Times 2001 Ghulam Nabi Fai. a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. B4 The foreign policy of the United States in South Asia should move from the lackadaisical and distant (with India crowned with a unilateral veto power) to aggressive involvement at the vortex. July 8. The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir. . Neither country has initialed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary. The Washington Times. executive director of the Kashmiri American Council.
She has used an econometric model to estimate the impact of high wheat and rice prices on poverty. In urban areas. has increased its investment in agriculture in its 2008-09 budget and has raised prices for farmers. surprise . which has a long history of subsidising agricultural input and output prices. “The Proposition's opening statement” The Economist.com/Opinion/Columnists/Can_high_food_prices_win_votes/articleshow/3397897. International Food Policy Research Institute. along with many other countries. which they probably will. But they will also cut poverty by 4. 2008. and so will national poverty. Rural areas will have losers as well as winners. and there are many parts of India where even if the local rise in prices doesn't match international ones. have been producing record harvests in recent years anyway. 2008. Aug 24. so future large harvests may not represent large increases over past production. http://timesofindia. for instance. But in rural areas. High prices benefit farmers but hit consumers. The FAO's Daniel Gustafson sees evidence that certain countries will significantly raise agricultural production. especially in Asia. India.” http://www. "We could see some significant increases in Indian cereal production.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829062 The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just completed a study including the three countries with the largest rural populations in the world: India. “What Goes Down Must Come Up: Global Food Prices Reach New Heights. "The price rise really is quite dramatic. he says.8 percentage points. while protecting its consumers from high price increases. especially landless labourers.ifpri. But some countries behave differently. .asp High food prices should present a golden opportunity for poor farmers to ramp up production and increase their profits.is a decline in the poverty ratio by 0. and farmers in Malawi and Zambia are likely to increase their production owing to subsidized input programs in those countries. … (it) also accentuates inequality among rural Indian states. High food prices prompt the Indian government to reform ag policy. July 29. Since 70% of the country is rural. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. to persuade it to reform its agricultural pricing system and provide new opportunities for its desperate farmers. or some members of the family have left the farm. research fellow at the Cato Institute.” Higher world food prices might be just the push needed by India. rural poverty will decline. so if high prices prevail. According to the ADB.5 percentage points. The net outcome . High food prices boost rural farmer’s incomes in India Heidi Fritschel. according to her projections.com/debate/index. national agricultural pricing policies and the remoteness of some rural areas often prevent world prices from reaching domestic markets.economist. Costlier foodgrains will tend to worsen the poverty of rural consumers by 2. Cristina Savescu of World Bank provides another viewpoint. There are other areas where people have left the farm. http://www. and thus farmers may not have as much incentive to boost production as world price increases may imply.surprise.6 percentage points among farmers. A number of countries. this has led to a system which is “unproductive. there could still be a big jump. “Can high food prices win votes?” The Times of India." Still. high food prices will increase poverty by 1. we could see some of these people returning to what now may be a better option. financially unsustainable. On balance.org/pubs/newsletters/ifpriforum/if200803. and environmentally destructive. poverty will fall 1. China and Indonesia.9 percentage points. the national impact turns out to be poverty reduction of 0." says Gustafson.indiatimes.8 percentage points. solving rural poverty and income gap Homi Kharas. South Africa is expected to increase its planted area by 8 percent.KY 2NC India Turn---XT Link Higher food prices decrease rural poverty in India Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar.6 percentage points. March 2008. Consider India. leaving land fallow.cms However.
industry needs to be moderate in the emolument levels its adopts.KY 2NC India Turn---XT I/L Indian income gap creates social unrest Jeremy Page. . eschew lavish weddings and shun "wasteful" Western lifestyles. has stunned business leaders by telling them to pay themselves less. tycoons are told. who unleashed India's current economic boom when he introduced market reforms as Finance Minister in 1991. limit their profits." he told the opening of the annual conference of the Confederation of Indian Industry on Thursday. May 26. if not matched by a corresponding rise of incomes across the nation. But this time he went farther than ever in dressing down India's business elite. “Stop showing off wealth. striking a distinctly Gandhian -if not overtly socialist tone. "In a country with extreme poverty. Mr Singh warned an audience including some of India's richest tycoons that they could face severe social unrest if they did not curb their spending and do more to bridge the country's yawning income gap. has long been calling for more inclusive economic growth. the Indian Prime Minister. 2007. The Times (London)." Mr Singh. "Rising income and wealth inequalities.” LexisNexis Manmohan Singh. can lead to social unrest.
indiatimes.com/Opinion/Columnists/Can_high_food_prices_win_votes/articleshow/3397897. and the increased farmer spending produces a second round of increased demand for labour. Production fell sharply. The employment guarantee scheme has provided a separate boost to wages. farmers have reaped a double bonanza. . 2008.cms Critics will ask. Bumper crops increase the demand for labour in harvesting and post-harvest operations.6 million tonnes respectively in the previous two years. and the resulting scarcity raised prices. Labourers have gained too. “Can high food prices win votes?” The Times of India. What's new about 2007-08 is that this is the first time that food prices have shot up despite a record harvest. from high employment. Farmers suffered too. This was a recipe for impoverishment. labourers were hit twice over. why did they cause such savage impoverishment in past inflations? The answer is that 2008 is truly different. Wheat production has risen from 69. but drought wiped out millions of others. So. if rising food prices can cut poverty today. So.7 million tonnes. up from 217. even as the procurement price has risen almost 50%.4 million tonnes to 79 million tonnes over the last two years. research fellow at the Cato Institute. Droughts greatly reduced employment. We won't get official wage data for a long time. Foodgrain production is a record 230. http://timesofindia. by rising prices and falling employment. high food prices in India were caused by droughts.3 million tonnes and 208. A smaller crop meant less labour was used for harvesting and post-harvest operations. Through history. Aug 24.KY 2NC India Turn---AT Poverty Turn High prices have only caused poverty during bad harvests Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. A few lucky farmers benefiting from decent rain gained from high prices. from higher production and higher prices. Falling farm incomes translated into falling demand for other kinds of labour. distress was acute among farmers no less than labourers. But news reports highlight labour scarcity and rising wages in Punjab-Haryana. So.
without officially abandoning them. The U..25 a day. the Indian government was criticised for saying that an individual income of 25 rupees (52 US cents) a day would help provide for adequate "private expenditure on food. Given that a major conventional conflict is dangerous. The OECD says India has the highest number of poor in the world. Johns Hopkins University. Recently. 2003. the ratio between the top and the bottom wage-earners has doubled since the early 1990s.bbc. a new report says. India. This transformation in India-Pakistan relations can be traced back to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s statement in the symbolically significant venue of Srinagar— the summer capital of J&K—on April 18. It says 42% of Indians live below the poverty line. as against the official Indian figure of 37%. as occurred during the 2001–02 border confrontation crisis when “travel advisories” were issued by the United States and several other developed countries. India’s longstanding policy of shunning international mediation and insisting on strict bilateralism in its dealings with Pakistan has been diluted considerably . Several developments have contributed to this attitudinal shift. India accepted his offer and suggested its extension to Siachen. D. The acquisition of nuclear weapons has highlighted the grave risks of trying to alter the status quo by military means." In India. created a global consensus for controlling transnational terrorism. as illustrated during the Kargil conflict of 1999 and the 2001–02 border confrontation. it said. compared to six times 20 years ago. The last two of these developments have led India and Pakistan to realize that a military victory over the other is not possible. the spread of globalization and its implications for international security. internal economic pressures." the report. on September 11. both India and Pakistan have become flexible regarding their traditional positions on Kashmir . the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the current resurgence of Russia. Zafarullah Khan Jamali. Pakistan’s readiness to support militancy has also diminished since Pakistan itself has become the target of Islamic jihadists and has experienced terrorist attacks throughout the country. The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. entitled Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising. Further. Indonesia and. Poverty line "Brazil.co. both India and Pakistan have realized that they have no alternative but to enter into a peace process. For similar reasons. an undemarcated region north of but adjacent to the . which inhibits hostilities being initiated by either India or Pakistan. The United States has now established a physical presence in Pakistan to pursue its “war on terror” in Afghanistan. in November 2003. former President Pervez Musharraf abandoned his country’s traditional position of insisting on implementing the UN resolutions on Kashmir. says. In cities. the Russian Federation and South Africa have all become less equal over time. The Parisbased OECD is a grouping of 34 advanced and emerging economies. and the U. India was deterred from attacking Pakistan during the border confrontation in 2001–02. among them the end of the Cold War. global war on terrorism has also increased the cost for Pakistan of indulging in provocative behavior. even suggested freezing the Kashmir issue. education and health" in villages. “Making Borders irrelevant in Kashmir” http://www. India has also not fared well in poverty reduction.uk/news/world-asia-india-16064321 Inequality in earnings has doubled in India over the past two decades. 2001. Subtle changes in their positions have stimulated creative ideas for managing the conflict. Chari is a research professor at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi and a former member of the Indian Administrative Service.pdf The Kashmir dispute has reached an impasse. the rise of China and its support for the peace process between India and Pakistan. extending a “hand of friendship” to Pakistan. it was Pakistani-backed militants who attacked the Indian Parliament on December 13. and any forcible alteration of status quo would be unacceptable to the international community. Furthermore. the report says. Indeed. Neither side will start a war. Pakistan has also realized the dangerous implications of supporting militancy. Some 42% of its 1. says OECD” http://www. Pakistan has since found it difficult to support the jihadi Islamic groups in J&K. 2001. Asif Zardari. cochairman of the Pakistan People’s Party. China. making it one of the worst performers among emerging economies . Unable to impose their preferred solution. global response to the attacks of September 11. individual earnings of 32 rupees a day (66 US cents) were adequate.usip.C.21 billion people live on less than $1. discouraging their citizens from visiting India. A World Bank report in May said attempts by the Indian government to combat poverty were not working . Any attempt by either country to improve its ground situation in Kashmir would be frowned upon by the international community and might prompt economic repercussions . The new government in Pakistan has declared that it wishes to take the peace process forward. 2001. 1 A cease-fire along the LOC was suggested by Pakistan’s prime minister. Argentina have recorded significant progress in reducing inequality over the past 20 years. **Hasan Askari Rizvi is an independent political and defense consultant in Pakistan and is currently a visiting professor with the South Asia Program of the School of Advanced International Studies.S. a nuclear conflict is unthinkable. During the Kargil conflict neither country could extend its theater of operations because of fears that the conflict might become nuclearized. On Pakistan’s part. Many experts said the income limit to define the poor was too low and aimed at artificially reducing the number of people below the poverty line. Chari and Rizvi 8 *P.KY 2AC India Turn Income inequality high now BBC News 11 “India income inequality doubles in 20 years. especially Islamic militants and jihadi groups. the passage of a 2007 law in the United States has linked American military and economic assistance to Pakistan to its performance in stopping cross-border terrorism. the report says. although he later had to backtrack on that proposal. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says the top 10% of wage-earners make 12 times more than the bottom 10%. the nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan in May 1998 that consolidated a nuclear deterrent relationship. they realize there is no “winning” – mutually assured destruction AND international sanctions. on some indicators.org/files/resources/sr210. triggering the border confrontation. India has discarded its traditional stand that the whole of Kashmir belongs to India and has shown signs of departing from its stated policy of negotiating with Pakistan only after cross-border terrorism ceases. "By contrast.S. R.
has made steady progress. . the cease-fire went into effect. with significant improvements occurring in cross-border communications and the movement of people and goods. though slow. greatly improving the safety of people living along the border. On November 26. The resulting peace process.KY LOC.
Lashkar-e-Taiba’s attack left 172 innocent civilians dead and placed the Indian government under great pressure to respond with force. http://www. 3/9/09.com. . Prior to developing nuclear weapons. He also told the seminar . one after the Mumbai attacks last November and the 2001 terrorist attack on Indian Parliament. Former Indian Army chief Gen. said the report.dtic. Deterrence solves Peoples Daily 9 “Ex-Indian general: Pakistan nuclear weapons prevent India from retaliatory attacks twice”. according to the report. The Logic of the Nuclear Arsenal. While it is only possible to speculate. It also led to tensions between India and Pakistan and the 2001-2002 India-Pakistan standoff. Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Winter 2009. including five terrorists. The 2001 Indian Parliament attack was a high-profile attack by militants belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed groups against the building housing the Parliament of India in New Delhi. India and Pakistan fought one another in the First Kashmir War (1947). Maxwell AFB. Alabama. The Cold War provides the single best example of nuclear weapons preventing conventional conflict among great-power rivals. The attack led to the death of a dozen people. and the Indo-Pakistani War (1971). http://english. India’s response to the 26–29 November 200 Mumbai terrorist attack is a good example of the moderating effect nuclear weapons have on the behavior of nuclear-armed adversaries. entitled "Nuclear Risk Reduction and Conflict Resolve" that it was due to Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons that India stopped short of a military retaliation following the attack on Parliament in 2001. neither country is willing to take such a risk.pdf Conventional and nuclear weapons are different—very different. why is 9 August 1945 the last time that a nuclear weapon was used in war? The same cannot be said of conventional weapons. the Second Kashmir War (1965).html Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons prevented India from attacking it twice.19 These two rivals are not the only examples of the moderating influence of nuclear weapons . the probability of a conventional conflict between the United States and the USSR would likely have been much higher had both sides not possessed nuclear weapons.KY 1AR India Turn---XT No War MAD checks Indo-Pak escalation Lowther 9 Adam.peopledaily. along with numerous artillery exchanges in Kashmir over the decades. faculty researcher and defense analyst at the Air Force Research Institute.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA511235&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc. six Indian policemen and one civilian. If this were not the case. As Ellen Collier of the Congressional Research Service illustrated in 1993.1 The same is true of the post–Cold War period.cn/90001/90777/90851/6610093. India also blames the same militant groups for staging the Mumbai attacks. Shankar Roychowdhury told a seminar in New Delhi that Pakistan's nuclear weapons deterred India from attacking that country after the Mumbai strikes. rarely did a year go by during the Cold War that US troops were not engaged in a conventional conflict. in which at least 173 people were killed and over 300 wounded. While India would likely win a conventional war with Pakistan. the semi-official Press Trust of India quoted a former Indian Army general as saying on Monday. yet Prime Minister Singh has shown tremendous restraint that can be attributed to the fear of a conventional conflict escalating to nuclear war.
" said Teodoro Petkoff. 2008 Los Angeles Times. and Asymmetric Warfare” www.pdf) At the same time. a foe of the Bush administration. President Chávez’s approach to Latin American security and stability requires a realignment from capitalist and “neo-liberal” economics and politics to his socialism for the 21st century. which press governments to limit spending. ‘5 (Max. Mexico's inflation is modest in comparison. influence. economists and others who track the country's affairs say. “Chavez Builds His Sphere Of Influence. But some private-sector analysts say the government is manipulating the data. 4.html CARACAS. Now. the economic prescriptions championed by the International Monetary Fund and the U. he is strengthening economic ties in the region in a bid to limit U.” “stability operations. Treasury. Chavez recently announced that his government would build housing. Chavez’s aid pushes out US influence in the region Juan Forero and Peter S. They estimate that Argentina's real inflation rate is running above 20%. the corollary at this level must address questions associated with “peacekeeping. and individual national powers. October. "World inflationary pressures have intensified due to strong price increases in food." Exploding food and fuel prices have reignited overall inflation throughout Latin America. 2007. the global community increasingly is being asked .strategicstudiesinstitute. And. Consumer prices in Argentina were up 9.” Washington Post. and probably exacerbate the processes of state failure in important parts of the hemisphere. a gesture that would soften the blow if that country's leftist government follows through on its threat to default on foreign debt payments.” and “state failure.1% last month.” The implications are straightforward. inflation is skyrocketing -. part of an aid package that would benefit one of Washington's most tenacious Cold War adversaries. Washington Post Foreign Service. http://www. The central banks of Chile and Brazil have likewise raised rates in recent weeks because of inflation concerns. Goodman.” “nationbuilding.” Washington Post.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/22/AR2007022201875_pf. “Chavez Builds His Sphere Of Influence. Thus. two months after winning reelection and consolidating his hold on the country with new powers to rule by decree. “Rising costs push Mexico to hike rates. raise interest rates and open their economies to foreign trade and investment. High inflation will prevent Chavez from maintaining aid to other countries in Latin America Juan Forero and Peter S. along with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. Venezuela has pledged to provide Ecuador with $1 billion in credit." 3. Less than a decade ago. Taken together. The central bank adds a quarter-point to its benchmark despite the government's move to freeze food prices.S.KY 1NC Venezuela Turn 1. And. Likewise.S. High food prices cause inflation in Venezuela Marla Dickerson. Farther south. "I don't know if Venezuela can simultaneously sustain internal spending and external spending at the level it has until now.washingtonpost. according to official estimates.4% in May. the economy is going to begin to cost Chavez.S. Venezuelan inflation reached an annualized rate of 31. conflict. In the contemporary security environment. http://www.” LexisNexis "The recent dynamic of inflation is worrying. energy and other raw materials.this year. Army War College and Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College.so much so that Chavez recently threatened to nationalize grocery stores if they did not limit price increases. 2007.html The question now is how long Venezuela can maintain the aid. government. “ Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. the Mexican economy was pummeled by inflation that approached 20%. a highway and an oil refinery in Nicaragua." the bank said in a statement. June 21. it has little private investment and creates few new jobs. Goodman. whose influence has waned in Latin America. Venezuela President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has long pledged to buck Washington-backed economic policies in Latin America. Staff Writer-LA Times.S. Bolivarian Socialism. Chavez has announced a $2 billion international investment fund for Latin America. a former leftist guerrilla and a Chavez opponent who runs a newspaper in Caracas. 2. That realignment will likely generate instability. true to the predictions of economists who are skeptical of the Chavez model. February 23.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/22/AR2007022201875_pf. Washington Post Foreign Service. February 23. President Daniel Ortega. the goal is nothing less than to kill the so-called Washington consensus. General Douglas MacArthur Chair and Professor of Military Strategy at the U. But the central bank has been hawkish in combating it. "I've said it before -. For Chavez. Failure of Latin American liberal democracy allows Chavez to spread his socialist agenda causing multiple scenarios for extinction Manwaring.mil/pdffiles/PUB628. the investments signify an effort by Venezuela to curb the reach of the U. international organizations such as the UN and the OAS. increasingly are being called on to respond to conflict generated by all kinds of material instabilities and human destabilizers. Although the economy is growing thanks to high oil prices.washingtonpost.army.
economic. that inaction could destroy the democracy. The Sophistication and Complexity of War as a Whole. total. It is a great deal more.65 . he will seek to shift the playing field away from conventional military confrontations and turn to nontraditional forms of assault on a nation’s stability and integrity. real threats to effective sovereignty exist. not an outcome. These threats include. He also understands the value of facilitating the processes of state failure to achieve the objectives of bolivarianismo.KY to respond to failing and failed states. urban criminal gangs. imply no easy set of tasks. Finally. Chávez understands that every player in the international community from small powers to the U. narco-states. There is finally the forceful bearing down by the army. As such. Liang and Xiangsui. and prosperity. Additionally. intimidation.”57 He will not even attempt to defeat his enemies on their terms. in a worst-case scenario. In these terms. disease. In that context. disease. and prosperity that has been achieved. the more they and their associated problems endanger global security. and a political crisis.” Chávez considers these actions to be steps that must be taken to bring about the political conditions necessary to establish Latin American socialism for the 21st century. narco-trafficking. each protagonist must deal with the very real possibility that transnational and internal nonstate actors can be used by one nation-state to play serious roles in destabilizing and taking down another. or a super insurgency. and conflict. These conditions breed massive humanitarian disasters and major refugee flows. lethal or nonlethal. he understands the sophistication and complexity of war as a whole. thus. ethnic cleansing. The tendency is that the best motivated and best armed organization on the scene will control that instability. it may be military or nonmilitary. while at the same time carrying out a network attack against the enemy so that the civilian electricity network. rogue states. and communications efforts. poverty.60 Chávez understands all this. These means of coercion and persuasion can spawn further human rights violations. genocide. torture. insurgency. have provided a scenario that is instructive and sobering: If the attacking side secretly musters large amounts of capital without the enemy nation being aware of this. He understands that war is no longer limited to using military violence to bring about desired political change. More specifically. Until a given populace generally perceives that its government is dealing with these and other basic issues of political. Chávez understands the centrality of relative moral legitimacy in conflict— and the critical importance of creating popular perceptions that his cause is morally correct. Chávez finds that it is more useful to think of them as parts within his concept of total war. and will lead to a better life. no winner. traffic dispatching network. or a mix of everything within a state’s or a coalition of states’ array of instruments of power. The argument in general is that failing and failed state status is the breeding ground for instability. it is important to remember that state failure is a process. regional conflict. a people’s war. starvation. rather than considering each level of conflict as an independent form of warfare. However. and other “root causes” of conflict. It is. is illusion. to facilitate the processes of state failure. it is important to understand that Chávez considers three issues to be key to success (or failure) in contemporary asymmetric conflict. They are closely related to his security scheme. criminality. all of the above types of threats are seen as methods of choice—or areas for exploitation—for various commercial (narco-traffickers and organized criminals). Rather. telephone communications network. first. superpower must cope simultaneously with four separate and potentially grave types of contemporary threat. power concerns. Chávez understands that contemporary nontraditional war is not a kind of appendage (a lesser or limited thing) to the more comfortable conventional military attrition and maneuver warfare paradigms. the recruitment and use of child soldiers. it may be a zerosum game in which only one winner emerges or.61 The Issue of State Failure. this will cause the enemy nation to fall into social panic. or some form of ideological crusade such as Bolivarianismo. Fourth Generation War and Asymmetric War” in 2004) to develop a doctrinal paradigm change from conventional to people’s war. the associated question is “How should the processes of state failure be addressed before they run their courses and achieve conflict and/or crisis proportions?” Conclusions from the Four Levels of Analysis. and destruction of infrastructure. It is a process by which a state loses the capacity and/or the will to perform its essential legitimizing governance and security functions. street riots. and thus to “destroy in order to rebuild” in true revolutionary fashion.63 Thus. buries a computer virus and hacker detachment in the opponent’s computer system in advance.56 The questions associated with the corollaries and implications of each of the above levels of analysis. whether they involve criminal business enterprise. free market economies.” Drug cartels operating throughout the Andean Ridge of South America and elsewhere call these activities “business incentives. At the same time. destabilizing nontraditional internal public and personal security threats can been seen all over the hemisphere in ungoverned territories. and criminal anarchy. warlordism. and lack of upward mobility limit the right and the ability of a given regime to conduct the business of the state. financial transaction network. in fact. That is to say. Chávez’s intent is to focus his primary attack politically and psychologically on selected Latin American governments’ ability and right to govern. and leadership at any given opportunity. if the United States and the other countries of the Americas ignore what is happening in the region. These are the bases of power—all else. disenfranchisement. They can host “evil” networks of all kinds. arms.64 But failing and failed states simply do not go away. criminal. Rather. Accordingly. As a consequence. And this is the basis of Chávez’s instruction to the Venezuelan armed forces (at the “1st Military Forum on President Chávez also understands that the process leading to state failure is the most dangerous long-term security challenge facing the global community today. stemming from chronic poverty. This caudillo will tailor his campaign to his adversaries’ political and economic vulnerabilities. trafficking and proliferation of conventional weapons systems and WMD. and everywhere. to him. Again. Nevertheless. two Chinese colonels. and place the posterity of the hemisphere at serious risk. corruption. state and nonstate actors’ strategic efforts are aimed at progressively lessening a targeted regime’s credibility and capability in terms of its ability and willingness to govern and develop its national territory and society. but he is no “nut case. more conventional terrorism. and military means are utilized in gradual stages until the enemy is forced to sign a dishonorable peace treaty. trafficking in women and body parts. ideological (insurgencies such as Peru’s Sendero Luminoso) movements.59 To give the mind as much room as possible to contemplate the sophistication and complexity—and the totality—of contemporary conflict. social programs. criminal states. and to their psychological precepts. as well as balance of Second. what Ralph Peters calls a “wise competitor. all means that can be brought to bear on a given situation must be used to compel a targeted government to do one’s will. these conditions spawn all kinds of things people in general do not like such as murder. Some Final Thoughts On Chávez’s Asymmetrical Conflict As A Challenge To Hemispheric Security Chávez may be a military caudillo. and launches a sneak attack against its financial markets. and mass media network are completely paralyzed. poverty. one can rest assured that Chávez and his Bolivarian populist allies will be available to provide money. rogue. In either case. the “battlefield” is extended to everyone.62 Peru’s Sendero Luminoso calls violent and destructive activities that facilitate the processes of state failure “armed propaganda. failing and failed states become dysfunctional states. Virtually anyone can take advantage of such an unstable situation. or new people’s democracies. Thus. and terrorism. in addition to helping to provide wider latitude to further their tactical and operational objectives. these actions are usually unconfined and spill over into regional syndromes of poverty.” He is. At the same time.S. kidnapping. and social injustice fairly and effectively.58 As a consequence. everything. the longer dysfunctional. it appears that this astute warrior is prepared to destabilize. he understands that popular perceptions of corruption. traditional and lingering boundary and territorial disputes. and narco-states and people’s democracies persist. of course. First. peace. instability and the threat of subverting or destroying such a government are real. In connection with the creation of new people’s democracies. And. thus. and caudillos like Chávez who are completely and ruthlessly dedicated to achieving control or radical change in a given nation-state. and insurgency. then after causing a financial crisis. destabilization.
. Iran's suspected nuclear plans. This combination of legal and social change has a contradictory content and appeal. Nigeria and Venezuela. “Does Hugo Chavez have us over a barrel?”. Lexis. Chavez will essentially be granted dictatorial powers -. They ranged from abolishing presidential term limits that would have allowed him to stand again in 2013. The day could easily deteriorate into one of violence. An oil crisis during the Christmas season -. Mr Chávez acknowledged that in a statement accepting defeat when he said he has attempted too much change too rapidly.php?context=va&aid=5964) Times of economic crisis produce international tension and politicians tend to go to war rather than face the economic music.S. notwithstanding the oil boom which has sustained Mr Chávez's social programme. Ahmadinejad can use world chaos to gain hegemonic strength in the Middle East.ca/index. causing a recession Rowan & Schoen 11-13-07 (Michael-. trade deficit. entrenching socialist values. decreasing central bank autonomy.an elected strongman reminiscent of Spain's Franco. but they depend on local control rather than the centralisation implied by Mr Chávez's own political role. Ahmadinejad and Chavez see opportunity: Civil discord lines their pockets. NUCLEAR WAR Cook 7 (Richard C. Latin American Newspaper Columnist & Consultant.7 to 49. banks. economy. The Saudis and other oil-producing countries have tried to increase output to offset rising costs. milk. meat and sugar have mocked his promises of greater equality and raised questions about whether they will be delivered upon.S. It may galvanise the fragmented opposition but is not likely to affect the underlying popularity of his programme of change. In Chavez's eyes. the U. working in cahoots. This is the first vote Mr Chávez has lost since coming to power in 1998. Parallel attacks on opposition media had a similar resonance. Overall turnout was down from 70 to 56 per cent. December 6. who are in a strategic alliance to push up the price of oil. pg. such a move on Chavez's part would go a long way in triggering a recession. But where the world sees a threat. Chavez's Bolivarian socialist economic order would supposedly move to the forefront. if Venezuelan citizens pass the dozens of constitutional amendments on the ballot. Many of his supporters were worried that abolishing the limit on presidential terms would further encourage the authoritarian tendencies already so visible in his populist style of rule.globalresearch. Chavez would use increased Constitutional power to cut off oil to the US. notably among a freshly mobilised student movement. to social changes like reducing the working day from eight to six hours. June 14. cooking oil. This setback is a healthy democratic check for Mr Chávez. With the price of oil hovering near $100 a barrel and markets skittish because of the subprime housing crisis (not to mention the stability of U.” LexisNexis The key fact about Sunday's surprise defeat of President Hugo Chávez's proposal to change Venezeula's constitution was the massive abstention of his own supporters. The proposals to fund community organisations directly could make a difference here. “Defeat for Chávez. Oil economists calculate that on a supply-anddemand basis alone. Political Consultant. 2007. extending social security to the selfemployed and directly funding the community councils he has created as a bulwark for his "Bolivarian revolution".S. eggs. His opponents rallied some 30 per cent of the electorate to give them a very narrow victory of 50. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez can tip the world into a recession. Italy's Mussolini and Orwell's Big Brother. Growing inflation. Conditions in the coming years could be as . Compared to the seven million votes he received in the presidential election last December. only 4. But working against stability and for high oil prices are Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.KY 2NC Venezuela Turn---Econ Scenario Inflation is key to preventing voters from granting Chavez more constitutional powers The Irish Times. the latter calculated to inflict maximum damage on the U. These proposed changes became more salient because of the recent uneven performance of the Venezuelan economy.3 million voted in favour of these changes. the weak dollar and deteriorating domestic consumer confidence).S.' "evil empire" is historically over. could then reach out to partners in Syria and elsewhere in the region.would be especially detrimental in the U. The two. Influential allies broke with him on this issue. saying he should not be trusted on it and that a personality cult is developing alongside plans to merge his supporters into one political party. http://www. The classic example is the worldwide depression of the 1930s leading to World War II. the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and social unrest in Pakistan. Douglas-.3 per cent. For his part. the remaining $45 in the current price is a political premium caused by uncertainty in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It proposed a complex package of constitutional changes which he insisted be treated as a unitary whole. a world economic crisis would prove that capitalism is a failure and the U. 2. martial law and suspension of oil production. On that day.with its 40% share of annual retail sales -. Jacob) On Dec. corruption and shortages of staple products like flour. Rising oil prices have caused global recessions in the past.S. Los Angeles Times. the price of oil would be about $50.
decides once and for all to haul off and let China. have it in the chops.KY bad as they were then. We could have a really big war if the U. If they don’t want our dollars or our debt any more. or whomever. how about a few nukes? .S.
" Despite suffering from an unspecified cancer. to reduce speculation to zero because it is one of the main factors causing inflation. a major gripe with voters. In fact. The massive injection of funds is expected to heat up the economy and speed up inflation. "We will continue monitoring clothing. medicine .KY 2NC Venezuela Turn---UQ Inflation high now Eyanir Chinea 4/16 writer for Reuters. the worse inflation will get. The analysts say price controls will only distort a highly regulated economy further and speed up inflation in the long run as the cheaper regulated goods become scarce and producers compensate their losses by raising prices on unregulated goods. His government plans to spend $26 billion on social programs for 2011-2012 and has expanded this year's national budget by 45 percent. Additional funding will come from new bond issues after the government eliminated the debt ceiling by decree in March. said Puentes. Chavez is seeking another six-year term in October in the toughest election battle he has faced in 13 years in office. for which he is having radiation treatment in Cuba. cars. But most economists believe Chavez's efforts to contain inflation will have only short-term results because increased public spending in the run-up to the October 7 presidential election is bound to stoke prices again in the oil-producing OPEC nation." said economist Pedro Palma of the Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica. the lowest quarterly rate since the oil exporting country introduced a new index four years ago. The cash flow is expected to begin in the second quarter. many of the causes are being deepened. Chavez. “Chavez battles re-election hurdle: Venezuela inflation.2 percent." he vowed recently.. Last year. . Financial analysts expect Venezuela to place at least another $15 billion in bonds on the capital markets this year. and he accuses his political opponents of trying to disrupt the economy to undermine his government.com/article/2012/04/16/us-venezuelainflation-idUSBRE83F16N20120416 (Reuters) . but market players expect it to be closer to last year's 27.to fund housing projects.more than $17 billion . The official inflation target for this year is in the 22-25 percent range. as well as over a rising crime rate that has made Venezuelan cities unsafe. "What's happening is they are containing inflation but not really attacking the causes of inflation. Venezuelan business leaders criticize the government for suffocating the economy with regulations like price controls that reduce productivity and increase the country's dependence on imported goods. "Some producers are operating almost at a loss. May and September." complained Moises Bittan of Fedecamaras.Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is so determined to contain one of the world's highest inflation rates in an election year that his price control officials are sticking signs outside stores to enforce compliance.. according to Jose Manuel Puentes of the IESA business school in Caracas. Chavez's opposition is taking him to task for the high cost of living.” http://www. who has nationalized great swathes of the Venezuelan economy. maintains that speculators and hoarders are fueling inflation. putting further stress on a weakened private sector.5 percent in the first three months of 2012. Venezuela's main business lobby. The initial freezing of prices of 19 key goods in December has begun to kick in: Consumer prices rose 3. temporary closure or outright expropriation by his socialist government. "This is just the start. Businesses that don't comply face fines. Amid doubts over his health. and includes a 30 percent increase in the minimum wage that will be seen in paychecks in two stages. Venezuela has the most regulated economy in Latin America after communist Cuba and inflation rates that are four or five times higher than the region's average. the import of food and medicine as well as non-essential consumer goods. food above all. The government's dilemma is that the more it regulates the economy.reuters. CASH INJECTION Chavez has made clear that his election strategy is to put more money in the pockets of Venezuelans by stepping up an array of social programs that have redistributed income to the poor as part of his so-called socialist revolution. The red-yellow-green traffic light notices tell shoppers whether a store is obeying new price caps. Venezuela issued more sovereign paper than any other Latin American state .
have slowed Chávez's drive to make the fertile land produce more. a leader of peasant farmers.” The International Herald Tribune. a leftist populist. LexisNexis Hurt by sporadic shortages of basic products last year. ''This is a serious attempt to break with a model based only on oil and diversify the economy. some products have been scarce as world supplies tighten. but agriculture began to diminish in importance as oil boomed in the 1920s. Nicaragua and Cuba . Venezuela has promised to help other left-leaning governments in the region . Reuters.'' Venezuela is a lush country.'' said Andrés Tuesta. but it has run into difficulties at home. 2008. fixed prices distort the supply chain and a bonanza from record oil prices drives up domestic demand. ''Some day Venezuela will export food. Oil wealth contributes to a strong currency. said Thursday during a visit to a newly irrigated corn farm in the neighboring state of Barinas.to increase their grain production. and coffee and cocoa farms were neglected. who says high food prices show that capitalism is a failed system. Even as a member of OPEC. April 30. meaning imports are often less expensive than home-grown produce. Venezuela confronts shortages. the country is now one of the few net food importers in Latin America. There is little doubt that Chávez is paying more attention to the countryside than any government in a generation. ''It was totally abandoned. Chávez. along with an overvalued currency. as unrest from Haiti to Senegal has shown in recent months.'' But cases like the empty plant in Mantecal show that bad planning.empirically proven Frank Jack Daniel. as world food prices hit all-time highs. Even so.'' Chávez.like Bolivia. where new tractors worked the land. Anger at long lines for milk contributed to Chávez's defeat in a referendum on extending his powers last year. Food shortages are a tinderbox issue everywhere in the world. “Stumbling toward food security. Chávez is determined to reduce Venezuela's dependence on costly imports and make its fields more productive. . has sheltered consumers from rising world food costs with subsidies and price controls. Harvests of many crops have risen steadily since he took office. ''Output keeps on rising.KY 2NC Venezuela Turn---XT Link High food prices prevent Chavez from gaining more powers. Hobbled by poor planning.
washingtonpost. Latin American Newspaper Columnist & Consultant. Giordani said this downward trend reaffirms the goal set in the national budget of annual inflation in 2AC Venezuala Uniqueness . In Bolivia. has plainly gathered steam in some Latin American countries. Jacob) Chavez is a brilliant military strategist who has reportedly spent or committed $110 billion since 2004 (an amount equivalent in today's dollars to what the U. has moved to cut back its ties to the IMF and related lenders. Ecuador.4%. Bolivia.KY 2NC Venezuela Turn---XT Kills US Influence Venezuelan aid is pushing the US out of Latin America Juan Forero and Peter S. Venezuelan inflation decreasing Venezuelan News Agency 12 (Venezuela's Inflation Falls for 5 Months in a Row. the vice president. coupled with Chavez's recent announcements that he will nationalize utilities and take greater control of oil projects at the expense of multinational corporations.measures opposed by orthodox economists.impossible to deliver considering that Venezuela's annual budget hovers around $50 billion. Los Angeles Times. a consulting firm in Caracas. His plan is to spread the revolution against capitalism and the United States. Bolivia let its agreement with the fund end.S. Venezuela has committed more than $140 million in loans and grants while pledging to invest as much as $1. he pledged $47 billion in aid and agreements -. “Chavez Builds His Sphere Of Influence. a Bank of the South. we're locked into specific areas -. authorities confirmed that accrued inflation during the first four months of 2012 amounts to 4. 2007. The Center of Economic Investigations.com/news/6970) Venezuela’s National Consumer Price Index recorded a 0. has kept track of Chavez's frequent pronouncements and says that in 2006. too. dwarfing the amount the United States offers in assistance to Latin America. Bolivian leaders said Venezuelan aid comes with fewer strings attached. especially those ventures that include a state presence. while the annual rate from May 2011 to April 2012 is 23. a former chief of staff to Chavez who studies economic issues at the state-funded International Miranda Center in Caracas." The Venezuelan model. the closer ties to Ecuador and Nicaragua. aid for electricity. and his candidates came within 1% of winning elections in Mexico and Costa Rica in 2006. he has a string of victories to show for it. the capital. It was aided by Venezuela. Argentina owes him $5 billion. Morales nationalized the gas industry and renegotiated agreements with foreign investors -. February 23. which is predicated on a break with all multinational institutions with Washington ties." With Venezuela offering loans.6%. thinking of human beings. Still. So far. In Venezuela.html The amount of Venezuelan aid is hard to quantify. http://venezuelanalysis. said in an interview in his office. Washington Post Foreign Service. which represents a decline in inflation for the fifth month in a row. Argentina. Venezuela is proposing a new multinational bank. thinking of the conditions of people's lives and people's culture. This represents a fall from the annualised inflation rate in March of 24.5 billion in Bolivia's gas industry in coming years. Nelson Merentes. "In the case of the United States. recovering after its 2001 economic collapse by ignoring some crucial aspects of IMF advice.8%. to replace Washington-based lenders. Lexis. aid for health. Presenting the results of a report drafted by the Venezuelan Central Bank and the National Statistics Institute. Douglas-.8% inflationary increase in April. has enthralled supporters who believe the country is in the vanguard of a new era in Latin America.” Washington Post. informed Finance Minister Jorge Giordani during a joint press conference with the president of the Venezuelan Central Bank. spent in the Marshall Plan after World War II) in political investments in the Americas and elsewhere. Political Consultant.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/22/AR2007022201875_pf. Chavez’s aid increases Venezuelan influence Rowan & Schoen 11-13-07 (Michael-. which had bought $2. The Venezuelan aid "allows us greater flexibility to choose projects with more productive impact. "We are distancing ourselves fundamentally from the imperial pretensions of the United States. The Correa administration said it would not sign an agreement allowing the fund to monitor the government's economic plan. May 4th. Last year. Last March. Meanwhile. "The leftist. “Does Hugo Chavez have us over a barrel?”. http://www. progressive thought is thinking the same. paid off the last of the $10 billion it owed the fund.aid for roads." said Haiman El Troudi. the installation of new social relations to get along. Ecuador and Nicaragua are already in his camp. Goodman.5 billion in Argentine debt. after spending nearly two decades under the strictures of an IMF program." Alvaro Garcia Linera. the country's central bank recorded billions spent on foreign bonds and other investments in the first nine months of last year.
the sharpest rise so far in 2012. with the consumer price index climbing 1." Mr. In February it was 1. "I personally estimate an inflation [rate] below 20%. who expect 2012 inflation of between 20% and 22%. the minister stated.wsj.8%.6% posted last year. Venezuela has made progress toward the goal. The latest results followed two consecutive month-on-month increases below 1. 1. I am optimistic.5% and in December 2011. in January 1. the smallest jumps in four years. however.1%. down from the 27. Venezuela Inflation Could Slow to 18% in 2012 . I think it can reach 18% or 19%.Government Official. This data "is accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate (7.KY 2012 of between 20% and 22%. .com/article/BT-CO-20120612-710137. http://online." said National Assemblyman Jesus Faria in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. Variation of the National Consumer Price Index rated 0. according to the vice president of the parliament's finance committee. which would mean a reduction of nearly 10 percentage points when compared to the end of 2011. with annualized inflation slowing through the first five months of the year to register at 22.6% in May. Faria's forecast improves on predications by the heads of Venezuela's central bank and finance ministry.9% in March).” and the result of first quarter economic performance. Venezuelan inflation slowing down – expected to fall to 18% this year Minaya 12 (Ezequiel.9% in March. "We are confident that the downward trend that is being registered will continue.0%.6% last month when compared to April. according to a report from the central bank last week.html) CARACAS--Venezuela's annual inflation rate could ease to as low as 18% by year's end. The downward trend appears at risk.
The proportion of US aid ploughed into agriculture wilted from 25% to 1% . both as a source of nourishment and a means of acquiring wealth.S. A contributing factor to this decline from the 1990s on was Europe's attitude to genetically modified crops. “Six Reasons to Kill Farm Subsidies and Trade Barriers”." Stern told the U. The World Bank's World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development (http://tinyurl. eight times the number in the United States and four times the number in India. 2. Plenty of good agricultural science — such as locally adapted seed varieties and soil surveys — sits unused because it has not been delivered in a form adequately tailored to the end users and their limited means. Public spending on basic agricultural research fell during the 1980s and 1990s in rich countries (see page 8). where the cutbacks were still severe even though there had been no Green Revolution comparable to that in Asia. One might assume that such cutbacks in research reflected poor results.com/2ngyqd) — the first of the annual reports to focus on agriculture for a quarter of a century. Not so. These sentiments transcended geographic.nature. perceive U. Slivinski. Stephen. the International Monetary Fund and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are also opening their coffers. The past weeks have brought signs that global institutions and donors are beginning to bow. 1 May 2008. The frustration and despair caused by these policies undermine American security. terrorist ringleaders find fertile ground for their message of hate and violence. Nicholas Stern. much will be channelled through the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa led by Kofi Annan. of the Swedish think tank Timbro. Many people who depend on agriculture for their survival. farm policy as part of an anti-American narrative in which Washington wants to keep the rest of the world locked in poverty. where people are heavily dependent on agriculture. and. One reason for this is that poor people in poor countries who earn a little extra cash will spend it on basic local goods and services — agricultural growth spurs economic growth from the bottom up. There are many useful directions for such development. But the more pressing problem for poor farmers is not the development of new technologies but access to those already there. But here. In such an environment. drought resistance and reduced requirements for inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides are all promising. Agriculture has poverty-busting powers beyond straightforward revenue increases. is blunt about America's leadership role.best way to solve poverty Declan Butler. indeed.” http://www. the bank noted with self-reproach — cites 700 published estimates of rates of return on investment in agricultural research. The reasons for this included the perceived success of Green Revolution technologies in Asia. Britain. 1. http://www. & Preble Trade & Foreign Policy Studies Cato ‘6 (Daniel. such as sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia. too. High food prices spur international aid and development in the ag sectors Sub Saharan Africa. ethnic. Jacob) The collective effect of American farm policies is to depress the income of agricultural producers worldwide. "It is hypocritical to preach the advantages of free trade and free markets. to this logic. and Christopher.org/node/493.S.html There are various ways in which the fruits of scientific research might have helped ease the suffering that comes from this confluence of factors. On 2 April the World Bank announced its intention to double agricultural lending to subSaharan Africa over the next year.S." Johan Norberg. Nature Magazine.freetrade. Cotton subsides fuel anti-American sentiment increasing terrorist recruitment Griswold. bilateral farming aid from Europe dropped by two-thirds and World Bank lending in the sector slipped from 30% to 8% . the Pew Research Center found a majority of respondents in more than a dozen countries were convinced that U. exacerbating poverty in areas. The downslide was most pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa. which both chilled research in the area and reduced incentives for such technologies to be fielded in countries looking to European export markets. some backlash against intensified farming among green groups. in a survey of anti-American sentiment around the world. chief economist at the World Bank. argues that farm . farm and trade policies increased the "poverty gap" worldwide.KY 1NC Africa Turn 1. and bank administrators say that a portion of the new money will go towards basic research. Feb. higher yields. agriculture expert. or religious boundaries. the pay-offs to agricultural research are massive. A study of 42 developing countries covering the period from 1981 to 2003 found that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) that originated in agriculture increased spending by the poor two-and-a-half times more than does GDP growth in other sectors. publication Africa Recovery. In the case of the Gates's money. Resources need to go towards coordinating and strengthening local agricultural extension services as an integral part of revamping and reintegrating the research infrastructure. "and then erect obstacles in precisely those markets in which developing countries have a comparative advantage.N. Agricultural research systems in sub-Saharan Africa are fragmented into almost 400 distinct agencies. It reports an average annual return of 43% . the harvest is not what it might have been. Indeed.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/full/453001b. “A research menu. Furthermore the economic disparities created by U. belatedly. development and extension services in developing countries.
Washington must be particularly sensitive to policies that exacerbate poverty in the developing world. we will all be losers.htm) What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails.000 growers. tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It is also more than the GDP of Benin. they want our respect." (See "Poor Man's Hero.ahram. "it is nearly twice the total amount of U. from which no one will emerge victorious." The subsidies drive down world cotton prices. or Chad." December 2003.eg/2004/705/op5. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. Societies would close in on themselves.4 billion in total subsidies to the cotton sector. Terrorism causes extinction SID-AHMED 04 (Mohamed. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet. the main cotton-producing countries in the region. This could lead to a third world war. costing developing countries billions of dollars in lost export earnings. police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights." Oxfam says. Poor countries don't want our pity. “Extinction!” Al-Ahram Weekly. government provided $3.org.S. "in crop year 2002. According to Oxfam. "To put this figure into perspective. this war will be without winners and losers.S. it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. internationally renowned reporter and columnist in Al Ahram. To the extent that American security depends on the expansion of liberal democratic institutions and free market economics." including about 25. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds.KY protection in developed countries amounts to a "deliberate and systematic means of undermining the very type of industry in which the developing countries do have comparative advantages. Burkina Faso.) American subsidies and tariffs amount to much more money than its foreign aid to the developing world. the U. foreign aid given to sub-Saharan Africa. . 3. http://weekly.
Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. August 1.economist. none of this happened when food prices were low.pdf The curse of higher food prices can be turned into a blessing if African agriculture finally becomes a business. Stagnating productivity and the pre-dominance of subsistence agriculture represent the current sorry state of agriculture but also indicate unexploited agricultural potential and . Norman Borlaug.” The Economist. Now the alarm has been rung and misguided agricultural policies are being rectified. The real point is that the status quo of low food prices was itself the problem. Michael O'Donnell. rain-fed. Writing about that success.creates long term solution to poverty and hunger Homi Kharas. “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”.economist. smallholder production systems with little acreage and limited intensification. which is key to the sector Denise Wolter. continue to experience food-security problems for two main reasons: the malfunctioning of internal food markets and low productivity.html Experts say many of the right conditions are in place across West Africa to make cash distributions work in the current global food price crisis. yields for cereals. a silent tsunami that threatened humanity. “The Proposition's rebuttal statement. In Africa. 2008. The share of African products in world agricultural imports has actually declined from 5. subsidies and export restrictions have not resolved Africa’s food-security problems. many new opportunities present themselves. “West Africa: Do High Food Prices Warrant a Cash Response?” http://allafrica. http://www. http://www. May 2008. High food prices prompt agencies to build better social protection infrastructure AllAfrica.solves poverty and hunger Homi Kharas. investment in agriculture and more agricultural science and technology—all of which are called for by Mr von Braun— will result from high food prices. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development.com/debate/index. called the hunger and malnutrition goal the “forgotten MDG”. August 1. The Gates and Rockefeller Foundations created an Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa in 2006. Zambia is a case in point: less than 15 per cent of its arable land is under cultivation. The commercialisation of agriculture would provide many opportunities for Africa even though the approach does not seem to sit easily with the notions of poverty reduction and food security. September 3. The World Bank president. while yields in Southeast Asia increased by more than 30 per cent (see Figures 1 and 2). “The Proposition's rebuttal statement. Food aid. one of the leading economists of our generation has said on another occasion. credits the Indian government’s decision to drop price controls on food to restore market incentives to a point where farmers would rapidly introduce the new varieties.com/stories/200809040012.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065 Mr von Braun deplores the change in the status quo that higher food prices represent. 2008. said "the current food price crisis could be an opportunity for governments to work with NGOs and UN agencies to provide cash transfers to build up stronger social protection systems for the chronically poor.oecd. and 40 per cent of rural households are solely engaged in subsistence agriculture. The continent is losing out in world agricultural trade. and roots and tubers have stagnated during 1990-2006.com. such as Tanzania and Ghana. Yet. head of hunger reduction for non-governmental organisation (NGO) Save the Children. Carlo Schmid Fellow at OECD Development Centre. African agriculture is still dominated by traditional.” The Economist. only 10 per cent of the land area suitable for irrigation is being irrigated. They are trying to replicate the successful Green Revolution which helped large parts of Asia defeat hunger in the 1970s.KY 2NC Africa Turn---XT Link High food prices prompt investment in African agriculture. Robert Zoellick. http://www. with significant funding to improve seeds and soil. which correspond to the same real level as in the 1960s and 1970s. 2008. There is every hope that changes in trade policy. It was high food prices in the 1960s and 1970s that helped initiate and sustain the Green Revolution and there is every reason to suppose that high food prices today can serve as a prologue for a similar revolution in Africa in the years to come.2 per cent in 2006. The World Bank has already announced $350m more in agricultural support for Africa next year. As Paul Romer." High food prices will spur investment in African agriculture.org/dataoecd/15/7/40573527. High food prices key to increasing investment and research in African agriculture.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065 At today’s higher food prices. even countries which are in principle food-secure. “Higher Food Prices – A Blessing in Disguise For Africa?” OECD Development Centre.4 per cent in the mid-1980s to 3. These measures can only provide short-term emergency relief as long as agricultural productivity remains low.com/debate/index. As we would expect. Nobel Laureate and the father of the Green Revolution.
especially in Africa where it is most intransigent. Senegal and to a lesser extent in Mali and Zambia. By the mid-1990s. According to recent OECD Development Centre research. while commercialisation programmes for export crops are quite common. and pricing and marketing policies that penalized farmers”. This trend should be reversed and extension services need to be improved to ensure that farmers obtain the full benefit from R&D results. commercialising food-crop production also presents the opportunity for Africa to re-gain ground in world agricultural trade. Rising local and regional demand in Africa provides ample opportunities to expand production and to develop food-processing industries. high transport costs. rice production in Africa was being outstripped by population growth. "The price rise really is quite dramatic. Traders. A number of countries. There has been very little progress in Africa over the last decade. African food production per head has declined by 12% since 1980. comparable examples for food crops are rare. especially in Asia.org/pubs/newsletters/ifpriforum/if200803. and farmers in Malawi and Zambia are likely to increase their production owing to subsidized input programs in those countries. Africa had to use scarce foreign exchange to import rice and household food consumption did not grow. International Food Policy Research Institute. African conditions were not suitable for high-yielding Asian hybrids and African highyielding varieties were not developed and distributed. August 1. seeds. In Africa in the 1990s. The FAO's Daniel Gustafson sees evidence that certain countries will significantly raise agricultural production. Yet. large European agro-food companies are already examining the investment possibilities in African agriculture to ensure future supplies for their domestic markets. or some members of the family have left the farm. more than 20% of children under five were severely or moderately underweight (the UN’s indicator of hunger) in 2000-04 in most of sub-Saharan Africa and in several countries in Asia. Increasing the productivity of food crops will require sizeable investments in irrigation. rather to other regions of their own. who may not be considered poor themselves. the growth rate of public investment in agriculture fell in every region in the world. High food prices are an opportunity for poor farmers in SSA to increase profits Heidi Fritschel. storage and transport infrastructure as well as improved access to inputs (such as fertilisers. and there are many parts of India where even if the local rise in prices doesn't match international ones. Seeing agriculture as a business also requires a broadening of the scope of the actors to be involved.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065 The prolonged period of low food prices did very little to reduce poverty and hunger. Contract farming (e. “What Goes Down Must Come Up: Global Food Prices Reach New Heights. in Tanzania surplus regions prefer to export their produce to neighbouring countries. which they probably will. it averaged just 1% per year. Building on the lessons learned from successful commercialisation programmes in the export sector.” http://www. there could still be a big jump. however. Low food prices meant that rates of . wholesalers and exporters. public R&D spending has been declining over the last three decades." Low food prices caused low investment production. So far. Last but not least. limited investment in agriculture.” The Economist. In Africa. OECD Development Centre research shows that donor projects. Donor support has been crucial in facilitating the establishment of those schemes. lack of market information and unpredictable government interventions currently hinder commercial development. are important intermediaries in the agro-food value chain. There are other areas where people have left the farm. produced positive results in the horticultural sectors in Ghana. The fall in developed countries was most dramatic: from 1991 to 2000 real growth was negative. the potential impact on poverty reduction and economic development should not be underestimated. we could see some of these people returning to what now may be a better option. leaving land fallow. he says." says Gustafson. so if high prices prevail. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. for example. Governments and donors should aim their interventions at unleashing this potential.g. Low international food prices were partly to blame. Admittedly the design of such programmes for food crops is more challenging.ifpri.asp High food prices should present a golden opportunity for poor farmers to ramp up production and increase their profits. In an assessment of declining African food production. South Africa is expected to increase its planted area by 8 percent. Poor transport infrastructure. Falling production is the inevitable response when private producers are faced with falling prices. 2008. the International Food Policy Research Institute.KY commercial opportunities. planting materials and credit) and markets. have been producing record harvests in recent years anyway. This is why. That is code for saying that prices were too low. the observed improvements in agricultural productivity in Southeast Asia have been closely linked to increased public spending on agricultural research and development (R&D) and better extension services. outgrower schemes) has proved to be an effective mechanism for involving smallholder farmers in export-crop production and to achieve economies of scale. contributing to African poverty Homi Kharas. leaving aside market linkages and institutional capacity building. The chance of combining business with agricultural development should not be missed as in the long-term a vibrant private sector should be the motor of development. donors should now turn their attention to the commercial potential of food crops. March 2008. especially in Senegal.com/debate/index. so future large harvests may not represent large increases over past production. As real food prices fell from 1975 onwards. The current food-price crisis could become a blessing if it leads to a stronger focus on how to make food markets work. "We could see some significant increases in Indian cereal production. Joachim von Braun’s own organisation.economist. singles out “poor infrastructure. donors and governments have focused too much on production. But governments also responded by cutting their investments in agriculture. Donors and governments need to move beyond working only with small-scale producers to alleviate poverty. USAID support for agricultural science in Africa has been cut by 75% over the last two decades. Moreover. http://www. which adopted a commercial approach. “The Proposition's rebuttal statement. According to the United Nations.
irrigation and marketing infrastructure were too low to justify investment. Africa’s poor farmers simply could not compete when international food was so cheap.KY return on proposed projects in roads. .
a proxy war alone may not induce the Great Powers to fight each other. an African war can attract outside involvement very quickly.com/jeff-deutsch/rtn/ newsletterv2n9.com. Nov. in Europe where the political lines have long since been drawn. a political risk consulting and related research firm. Civil wars in the Congo (the country formerly known as Zaire). Rwanda. Geopolitically speaking. http://users.the international community has "compelling" reasons to try to prevent them. such a strike would in the first place have been facilitated by outside help . who are willing to push the button rather than risk being seen as wishy-washy in the face of a mortal threat and overthrown. even apart from the humanitarian reasons. Vol.rcn. or Asia where many of the countries (China. etc. and some people love to go fishing. 18. Certainly. Very few countries in Africa are beholden to any particular power. say. “At last. engineering.not to mention in that she also probably already has the Bomb. Africa is open range. South Africa is a major exception in this respect .and even to faraway rich countries . Thus. Of course. Founder of Rabid Tiger Project. Sudan and other countries.au/articles/2003/07/11/ 1057783349674. Jacob) Rabid Tiger Project. But a recent World Bank study of 52 major civil wars found most were caused not by ethnic tensions but by entrenched poverty and heavy dependence on natural resource exports. scientific. India. Jacob) Africa's wars are often dismissed as "ethnic" conflicts.The report concluded that because the effects of these wars often spill over into neighbouring countries . July 12. But an African nuclear strike can ignite a much broader conflagration. Thus. and domestic instability in Zimbabwe. Rabid Tiger Newsletter.theage. Japan) are powers unto themselves and don't need any "help. America discovers Africa”. Assoc. 2 #9.html. The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear war is most likely to start in Africa. 2. We've got all too many rabid tigers and potential rabid tigers." thank you. if the other powers are interested in a fight. Nuclear War Deutsch-Phd economics George Mason‘2 (Jeffrey. Editor The Age.KY 2NC Africa Turn---War Impact 1. Somalia and Sierra Leone. . African poverty and limited exports cause civil wars that escalate outside the continent Bone-associate editor The Age ‘3 (Pamela-. as well as occasional brushfire and other wars (thanks in part to "national" borders that cut across tribal ones) turn into a really nasty stew.financial. outside powers can more easily find client states there than.html. Africa is an ocean of troubled waters. http://www.
and other forms of behavioral violence occur one at a time. 1996. This is.S. in fact accelerating.KY 2NC Africa Turn---Poverty Impact Poverty is a form of structural violence that is equivalent to an ongoing nuclear war against the poor. that evolves from the experience of men in maximum security prisons and hospitals for the criminally insane must begin with the recognition that these institutions are only microcosms. 191-196 The deadliest form of violence is poverty. political parties. whereas murders. and about their families and friends. every fifteen years. as many people die because of relative poverty as would be killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year period. the Indonesian massacre of 1965-66 (perhaps 575. 1954-1973). and a member of the Academic Advisory Council of the National Campaign Against Youth Violence. or genocide. perpetrated on the weak and poor every year of every decade. In other words. and the lowest discrepancies in death rates and life expectancy. Focusing merely on those relatively few men who commit what we define as murder could distract us from examining and learning from those structural causes of violent death that are far more significant from a numerical or public health. dangerous. *Structural violence operates more or less independently of individual acts. it was clear that even war cannot begin to compare with structural violence. the Vietnam war (possibly two million. and that structure is itself a product of society's collective human choices. suicide. the discrepancies between the rich and poor nations have increased dramatically and alarmingly. [Continued… (9 Paragraphs Later…)] The finding that structural violence causes far more deaths than behavioral violence does is not limited to this country. thermonuclear war. you are forced to recognize the truth in Gandhi's observation that the deadliest form of violence is poverty. and the perpetrators who fill them are far from being the main causes of most violent deaths.000 deaths per year from armed conflict. (232 million). Sweden was their model of the nation that had come closes to eliminating structural violence. *Structural violence is normally invisible. and the highest overall life expectancy in the world. P. You cannot work for one day with the violent people who fill our prisons and mental hospitals for the criminally insane without being forcible and constantly reminded of the extreme poverty and discrimination that characterizes their lives. throughout the world. or human. which continues year after year. Structural violence differs from behavioral violence in at least three major respects. especially a psychological theory. Structural violence is also the main cause of behavioral violence on a socially and epidemiologically significant scale (from homicide and suicide to war and genocide).000) deaths). for they are inextricably related to each other. as contrasted with the relatively lower death rates experienced by those who are above them. and disability suffered by those who occupy the bottom rungs of society.S. I am contrasting "structural" with "behavioral violence. These are not acts of God. Not a day goes by without realizing that trying to understand them and their violent behavior in purely individual terms is impossible and wrong-headed. Kohler and Alcock attempted to arrive at the number of excess deaths caused by socioeconomic inequities on a worldwide basis. it is also the root cause of all other violence James Gilligan professor of Psychiatry at the Harvard Medical School. they found that 18 million deaths a year could be attributed to the "structural violence" to which the citizens of all the other nations were being subjected. Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural violence to the frequency of those caused by major military and political violence. wars. executions. soldiers in warfare. They are not where the major violence in our society takes place. When they compared the life expectancies of those living in the other socioeconomic systems against Sweden. By "structural violence" I mean the increased rates of death. the equivalent of an ongoing. It had the least inequity in income and living standards. or lethal is moot. voters) whose decisions may nevertheless have lethal consequences for others." by which I mean the non-natural deaths and injuries that are caused by specific behavioral actions of individuals against individuals. unending. independent of individuals and groups (politicians. Any approach to a theory of violence needs to begin with a look at the structural violence in this country. Violence: Our Deadly Epidemic and its Causes. including those by genocide —or about eight million per year.S. such as World War II (an estimated 49 million military and civilian deaths. on the average. The question as to which of the two forms of violence—structural or behavioral—is more important. Any theory of violence. standpoint. rather than sporadically. Those excess deaths (or at least a demonstrably large proportion of them) are a function of class structure. concerning how to distribute the collective wealth of the society. in effect. During the past decade. 1939-1945). and even a hypothetical nuclear exchange between the U. such as the deaths we attribute to homicide. capital punishment. Hearing about their lives. . because it may appear to have had other (natural or violent) causes. suicides. *The lethal effects of structural violence operate continuously. and the U.R. and so on. The 14 to 18 million deaths a year caused by structural violence compare with about 100. Director of the Center for the Study of Violence. as cause to effect.
especially when those groups have access to significant financial resources. Some 800 million people in the world don't have enough to eat. Even if the Iranian leadership does not regard sharing nuclear secrets with terrorist groups as a wise policy. and program participants are able to profit from diversion with little chance of detection by either the proliferating . the Iranian nuclear weapons program would seem to offer a tempting opportunity to Al Qaeda elements seeking clandestine access to nuclear technology. Exacerbating this risk are the efforts of non-nuclear states that are seeking to develop a nuclear strike capability.KY 2NC Africa Turn---Terrorism Impact Boosting regional agriculture is key to solving terrorism Lang ‘5 (Susan. http://www. Iran may prove to be far more dangerous. These people need to be heard. the risk that critical nuclear technology will be diverted to groups like Al Qaeda is particularly high. North Korea or Syria. 21. Cornell economist Per Pinstrup-Andersen said at the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington. Busch and Holmes have catalogued the efforts of rogue states and of Al Qaeda to acquire nuclear weapons capability from the inadequately controlled Russian nuclear sector.pdf) Raising the Stakes:The Nuclear Dimension of the Terrorist Threat. is particularly important because at present agricultural science and investment generally benefit affluent farmers and consumers.Africa.49 Given Iran’s well-established relationship with Hezballah in Lebanon and its increasingly problematic.05/AAAS. poor controls on the technology of nuclear weapons production. he warned. Much of his research is focused on developing policies to improve the global food system for the benefit of the nutritional status of low-income people. the lack of security in the Russian weaponized nuclear technology sector represents a significant risk of nuclear capability finding its way into the hands of terrorist hubs. He pointed out that about one-fifth of the world's population lives in dire poverty. Dempsey-Director of African Studies .army.46 More recent reporting on the situation is hardly more encouraging. also leave millions of people with nothing to lose. The risk that such weapons will find their way into terrorist hands is increasing significantly as a result of three interrelated factors. A survey in 2002 of 602 Russian scientists working in the Russian WMD sector revealed that roughly 20 percent of the Russian scientists interviewed expressed a willingness to work for nations identified as WMD proliferators: Iran. D. A recent study of the Iranian nuclear program published by the U. it has become increasingly evident that he exercised little control over the elements of his network operating outside of Pakistan. and poor supervision of Russia’s militarized scientific community characterized the post-Cold War Russian nuclear sector. Nutrition and Public Policy at Cornell. The consequences of such destitution are malnutrition. The problematic issue of accounting for and controlling Sovietera nuclear weapons and technology has been explored thoroughly by Jessica Stern in her 1999 study of terrorism and WMD. Stern described a Soviet-era military that was melting down.Andersen. While North Korea frequently is cited as the best example of this sort of nuclear proliferation. Army War College considers Iranian fielding of operational nuclear weapons to be inevitable and estimates the time frame for such a fielding to be 12 to 48 months. pg. relationship with the United States. making them ripe for turning to international terrorism in their frustration. The circumstances surrounding that proliferation—primarily its clandestine and covert nature—make it far more likely for nuclear weapons to find their way from state proliferators into the hands of terrorist groups. Director of African Studies @ U. PinstrupAndersen is the H. said Pinstrup-Andersen.S. February 24.edu/chronicle/05/2. Army War College-6 (Thomas. The clandestine nuclear weapons program directed by Dr. http://www. the 2001 World Food Prize Laureate and chair of the Science Council for the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. and the already very skewed gap between rich and poor keeps growing. April. as the Pakistani experience has demonstrated. environmental degradation and worldwide instability. he said. and Khan himself seems to have operated with minimal oversight from the Pakistani government. in the context of terrorist access to WMD. on Feb.48 When viewed in combination with the growing influence and reach of Russian organized crime. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and as Chief of Africa Branch for the Defense Intelligence Agency. The nature of clandestine nuclear weapons programs makes them especially vulnerable to compromise. The threat that terrorist hubs based in failed states pose to the United States and to its allies escalates dramatically if those hubs can obtain access to nuclear weapons. Lapses may have even included loss of operational nuclear devices. These circumstances.E. elements within the Iranian government or participants in its nuclear weapons program may be willing to do so for their own reasons. and rife with corruption.50 Under such circumstances. Abdul Qadeer Khan on behalf of the Pakistani government exemplifies the risks inherent in such secret undertakings.C. Counterterrorism in African Failed States: Challenges and Potential Solutions. As the details of Khan’s nuclear weapons operation have emerged. The end of the Cold War has witnessed an alarming erosion of control and security of Russian nuclear technology and weaponry. Babcock Professor of Food. Terrorists operating in Africa will deploy nuclear weapons against the U. Investment in productivity-increasing agricultural research. and have identified the human element of that sector as being especially vulnerable.html) If the developed world fails to invest more in African agriculture and rural infrastructure to benefit the poor and help them escape poverty. he said. It has also witnessed increasing nuclear proliferation among non-nuclear states..S.47 Most recently.mil/pdffiles/pub649. unpaid.24. The clandestine Iranian nuclear weapons program is reportedly well-advanced. even hostile. Army War College and served as a strategic intelligence analyst for Africa at the John F. the world will become a much more dangerous place.S. His non-Pakistani partners in acquiring nuclear technology appear to have been motivated almost entirely by money. Loss of accountability for fissionable materials.cornell. a consortium of 15 international research agricultural centers that focuses on setting priorities for international agricultural research.strategicstudiesinstitute.news.
London. delivery to a local terrorist node. If those hubs are successful in maintaining even a tenuous connection through their virtual network to terrorist nodes existing within the United States or the territory of its allies. and entering the failed state in which they are located to apprehend or destroy them will be a complex and difficult task. only the hubs present a threat of genuinely serious proportions to U. Evolved terrorist hubs operating in failed states like Sierra Leone.S. interest.S. then the risk posed by terrorist groups operating from failed states becomes real and immediate. and employment in a terrorist attack probably will require significant resources and considerable time. Identifying those hubs. Developing the nexus between nuclear weapons acquisition. Liberia. locating their members. Escalating nuclear proliferation offers terrorist hubs sheltering in failed states the opportunity to translate funding into weapons access. interests. or in other areas of vital U. and Madrid suggest that such is the case. or Somalia may have both. .KY While both hubs and nodes exist in failed state terrorist networks in SubSaharan Africa. The recent attacks by terrorist nodes in state or by opponents of that proliferation. Cairo.
with most of the rest in Asia and the Pacific. poverty in African LDCs is rising markedly. “Poverty is worsening in African LDCs”. http://www. Energy Correspondent. released in June.5 million over the same period.9 percent in 2010.59 in 1995-99. The UN has classified 49 countries around the world as LDCs. September 2002. 2/13/12.rose to 60. http://www.reuters. data showed on Monday.those who can afford only the bare essentials of food. Rather than calculating the proportion of poor people on the basis of only household survey data.org/en/africarenewal/vol16no2/162povty. the proportion of people in 29 African LDCs living below $2 per day increased from 82 per cent in the late 1960s to 87.htm) Compared with least developed countries in other parts of the world.90.un. based on their low GDP per capita. reports UNCTAD's Least Developed Countries 2002.under $1 per day -. both in the past and more recently. 2AC AFRICA TURN . In contrast. For those in extreme poverty -.7 percent in 2004.84 to $0. 2 (Nirit Ben.9 per cent. Israeli Journalist. despite strong growth in Africa's second largest economy.5 per cent in the late 1990s. average daily consumption declined from $0..KY Poverty in Africa isn’t getting better Ari . Even in Africa’s 2nd largest economy.the increase was from 55. Of that number.com/article/2012/02/13/us-nigeriapoverty-idUSTRE81C0KR20120213) Poverty in Nigeria is rising with almost 100 million people living on less than $1 a day. compared with 54.8 per cent to 64. the average daily consumption of the extremely poor in five Asian LDCs rose from $0. shelter and clothing . The UNCTAD report uses a new way to measure poverty." Statistician General Yemi Kale told reporters in the capital Abuja.6 million to 233. and thereby have led to underestimates of overall poverty levels.. says the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).66 in 1975-79 to $0. Among Africans living on less than $1 a day. UNCTAD also uses estimates based on national accounts. the report argues. This. weak human resource base and low level of economic diversification. The proportion of poor people in Asian LDCs also has declined steadily (see graph). 33 are in sub-Saharan Africa. Although Nigeria's economy is projected to continue growing. the study notes. the proportion of Nigerians living in poverty is increasing every year. The number of Africans living in extreme poverty in these countries rose dramatically from 89. The percentage of Nigerians living in absolute poverty . the national bureau of statistics said. poverty still continues to grow Brock. it is also deepening. 12(Joe. poverty is likely to get worse as the gap between rich and poor in Africa's largest oil producer continues to widen. as the World Bank and other agencies have done. According to the agency. “Nigerian Poverty rising despite economic growth”. that despite the fact that the Nigerian economy is growing. is more accurate in especially poor countries. "It remains a paradox . Not only is poverty in African LDCs widening. since household surveys have often underrepresented the poorest sectors of the population.
” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. A decade ago the CPLA was equipped with inferior copies of Russian arms from late 1950s to the early 1960s. It would require from our state maximal tension. Trade. . up to the last tank or a plane. leading to a decline in poverty for all household groups with significant poverty. It should not be forgotten. Thanks to our zeal. “The Third Threat. However.e. undoubtedly.9 Most historical studies conclude that the large reduction in poverty in China since 1978 was based primarily on better incomes in rural areas. in a single direction (we would have to forget such "trifles" like Talebs and Basaev. Equity and Development Program. whereas the general forces would be extremely exhausted in the border combats. The shock air force of our "eastern brethren" will in the near future replace antique Tu-16 and Il-28 airplanes with Su-30 fighters. it is a realistic prospect . However.org/files/polaski__food_prices.just like a war against NATO or Islamic extremists. and the Doha Round. what would exhaust Russia's armament completely. Several studies using general equilibrium models have shown that rising world prices for grains would reduce poverty in China. however. at most a quarter of China's population. but this does not guarantee success either). MAY 2008. including urban households.” What The Papers Say (Russia)) Chinese propaganda has constantly been showing us skyscrapers in free trade zones in southeastern China.8 Higher prices are offset by higher earnings for labor and land. and even against the first frost of a possible nuclear winter. For them. even the living standards of a backwater Russian town remain inaccessibly high.carnegieendowment. There is every prerequisite for "the final throw to the north. that some 250 to 300 million people live there. our country would be absolutely unprotected against the "Chechen" and the "Balkan" variants both.KY 1NC China Turn 1. India is home to the largest number of poor people in the world. i. rather disagreeable and we would not like to believe it can be true. A billion Chinese people are still living in misery. They have absolutely nothing to lose. The second largest concentration of the poor is in China. from antique MiG-21 fighters of the earliest modifications and S-75 air defense missile systems the Chinese antiaircraft defense forces have adopted Su-27 fighters and S-300 air defense missile systems. through its own efforts Russia has nearly managed to liquidate its most significant technological advantage. Rising food prices solve poverty in China Sandra Polaski. Such a war would be more horrible than the World War II. We have not got another set of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-based missiles. Poverty. which also has nuclear weapons (even tactical weapons become strategic if states have common borders) and would be absolutely insensitive to losses (even a loss of a few million of the servicemen would be acceptable for China)." The strength of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (CPLA) has been growing quicker than the Chinese economy. 2. Massive nuclear strikes on basic military forces and cities of China would finally be the only way out. universal mobilization and complete accumulation of the army military hardware. Chinese poverty causes Sino-Russia nuclear war Sharavin 10-1-2K1 (Alexander. China's air defense forces have received Tor systems instead of anti-aircraft guns which could have been used during World War II. if full mobilization is called.pdf As noted. Senior Associate and Director. attributable mainly to higher prices for food. which. http://www. is comparable in size with Russia's entire population. An aforementioned prospect is. “Rising Food Prices. In the long run. which are not yet available to the Russian Armed Forces! Russia may face the "wonderful" prospect of combating the Chinese army. even if the aggression would be stopped after the majority of the Chinese are killed.
In fact.economist. the poorest households saw the biggest gains from increasing rice prices. It concludes that rural households in China should enjoy a significant reduction in the incidence of poverty as a result of high food prices.KY 2NC China Turn---XT Link Rising food prices decrease Chinese poverty Patrice Hill.com/debate/index.” LexisNexis Rising food prices clearly helped lift the incomes and living standards of poor people in China and India.” Higher world food prices might be just the push needed by India. which has the largest number of poor living on less than $2 a day." she said. In fact. said Sandra Polaski. Developing nations provide materials. “High prices not all bad. a short while ago many analysts claimed that the greatest risk to China’s development was the growing gap between income levels in urban and rural areas. the two countries with the biggest concentrations of poor people in the world.brookings. these are the same households which have seen steady growth in wages in the last few years and have a middle-class living standard . July 29. … (it) also accentuates inequality among rural Indian states. With today’s food prices. which has a long history of subsidising agricultural input and output prices.edu/opinions/2008/0729_food_prices_kharas. attributable mainly to higher prices for food. .cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829062 The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just completed a study including the three countries with the largest rural populations in the world: India. The ADB report also analyses China in some detail. With today’s food prices. According to the ADB.Consider India. to persuade it to reform its agricultural pricing system and provide new opportunities for its desperate farmers. Although some urban households will be made worse off. along with many other countries. author of the Carnegie study. July 29. http://www. most of whom live in rural areas. higher food prices key to resolving rich poor gap in china Kharas 8 (Homi. Also in India. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. "The large reduction in poverty in China since 1978 was based primarily on better incomes in rural areas. The Washington Times.aspx) The ADB report also analyses China in some detail. a short while ago many analysts claimed that the greatest risk to China’s development was the growing gap between income levels in urban and rural areas. that problem has receded. http://www. sr. these are the same households which have seen steady growth in wages in the last few years and have a middle-class living standard. and environmentally destructive. Although some urban households will be made worse off. that problem has receded. financially unsustainable. “The Proposition's opening statement” The Economist. China and Indonesia. 2008. High food prices decrease Chinese poverty and income inequality Homi Kharas. this has led to a system which is “unproductive. It concludes that rural households in China should enjoy a significant reduction in the incidence of poverty as a result of high food prices. 2008. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. June 2.
Despite sharp growth in countries like China and India. he said. former World Bank president James Wolfensohn said here yesterday.KY 2NC China Turn---Rich/Poor Gap --> Instability rich poor gap leads to chinese instability Brunei Times 8 (March 6. there were about five billion poor people in the world a number that "will grow to eight billion people in the next five years". he told business and civic leaders. pg. Fifteen years ago. Unlike in the past.bt. he told a public forum in the Philippine capital.com. The increasing income disparity between nations and within their borders "will ensure you will have growing conflicts between the rich and the poor". . http://www. the absolute number of poor in the world was still growing. the poor in undeveloped countries were well-informed and knew about the comforts and jobs out of their reach.bn/en/international_business/2008/03/06/rich_poor_gap_could_lead_to_more_strife) A WIDENING rich-poor gap in countries around the world could lead to a rise in class conflicts. particularly in Africa.
on its own.once occupied by Japan .into nervous breakdowns .KY 2NC China Turn---XT Impact chinese instability risks world war 3 Plate 3 (Tom. Then you can say hello to World War III. A massive flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls. LN) But. the Chinese middle class alone may approach the size of the entire population of America. much less outright military invasion . Meanwhile.bet on it. not less . which don't want them and can't handle them. Straits Times. security and economic growth . having created a runaway economic elephant. That's why wise policy encourages Chinese stability. UCLA professor. June 28.the very direction the White House now seems to prefer.because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. That would send Singapore and Malaysia . But imagine a China disintegrating . and Pakistan for Kashmir. while China's prosperity may be good for Americans. India might make a grab for Tibet. some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of World War II Revisited and look to annex a slice of China. It will want more freedom. without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting. Asia-style. . is it necessarily the same for the totalitarians running China? After all. will the Communist Party leaders be able to stay in the saddle? Before long. That would knock Asia into chaos.
He said China faces an uphill journey in promoting sustainable development . uncoordinated and unsustainable development remain challenging. pressure from resources and the environment continues to mount. "Last year World Bank pegged China's below poverty line population who lived on less than $1. official media here quoted him as saying while addressing the meeting at Rio de Janeiro.rediff.” http://www.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-china-has-over-100mn-living-below-poverty-line/20120621. "Moreover. China still has more than 100 million people living below the poverty line . . and problems of unbalanced.25 a day at about 150 million.KY 2AC China Turn---Poverty High China sucks at poverty reduction Rediff Business 6/21 “China has over 100 mn living below poverty line.htm Calculated according to a new standard.
htm) World food prices that surged 30 percent in the first two months of the year threaten to push millions of Asians into extreme poverty and cut economic growth.tw/business/asia/asian-market/2011/04/27/300112/Risingfood. which could drive 64 million people into poverty. 4/27/11.5 percentage points from economic growth in developing Asian countries. Food prices have been driven higher by surging oil prices.KY High Food prices INCREASE the rate of poverty in China China Post. the bank said in a report.chinapost. If higher food and oil prices persist for the rest of the year. adding that it will also erode the living standards of families already living in poverty. the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Tuesday.Rising Food prices bad . 11 (“Rising Food Prices threaten Asia’s poor”.com. the report said. they could shave as much as 1. production shortfalls due to bad weather and export restrictions by several food producing countries. The surging prices translated into domestic food inflation of 10 percent on average in many Asian economies. 2AC China turn. http://www.
on its own. which resulted from an undersupply of vegetables due to relatively cold weather in March. Refugees by the gazillions would head for Indonesia and other poorly border-patrolled places. some in Japan might lick their chops for World War II Redux and look to annex a slice of China. That's a tough task: nearly every time we've seen this movie before. Say hello to World War III Asia-style! 2AC Chinese Inflation Turn . warned consumer prices remained high and said the government's aim was to keep inflation within four percent this year. That would send small but successful Singapore and Malaysia -. non-inflationary economy.co.telegraph.com/2010/05/19/news/international/china. l/n nick] But imagine a China disintegrating -.KY Chinese Inflation increases because of high food prices AFP. while Seoul was down 1. “Chinese inflation might be out of control”.into absolute nervous breakdowns. but also the safety of a properly valued.57pc. That would knock Asia into chaos.9pc. Inflation has triggered social unrest in the past and senior leaders are anxious to keep prices of basic goods such as vegetables.3pc. without neo-con or CIA prompting. 12 (The Telegraph. with the CPI bottoming out in July this year.uk/finance/chinabusiness/9194038/China-inflation-rises-as-bad-weather-pushes-up-food-prices.htm ) What worries Chinese economic planners considering these fixes is that rather than just slow down and control growth. much less outright military invasion -. Huiyong." Stock markets throughout Asia reacted negatively to Monday's figure which was slightly higher than analysts' expectations of 3." Li think the downward trend will likely be unchanged. Premier Wen Jiabao.html) "CPI was mainly pushed up by food prices. China would like to have it both ways right now: rapid growth and wealth creation. and while it does.fortune/index. meat and housing under control ahead of a once-a-decade power transition that begins later this year. speaking at the opening of the annual session of parliament in March. “Neo-Cons: A Bigger Risk to Bush than China”. http://www. 4/9/12. http://money. India might make a grab for Tibet. making Jim Chanos a happy man but also causing serious damage to China's export heavy economy.inflation. they have the potential of "popping" the bubble.47pc and Shanghai dropped 0.because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses.cnn. Chinese economic collapse leads to multiple scenarios of nuclear war Plate 2003 [Tom (Professor at UCLA). the ending is the same. which don't want them and can't handle them. Tokyo fell 1. June 28. Straits Times. "We And Chinese Inflation will collapse their economy Jones 2010 (Daryl. “China Inflation Rises as bad weather pushes up food prices”.once Japanese colonies -. a Shanghai-based analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities said. Pakistan for Kashmir.
Furthermore. most notably in developing nations. p. ed. Hess. Goldsmith and Brauer. (Blomberg & Hess. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major.' Zell told the Milken Institute Global Conference.4 percent in 2007 . causing imports of all kinds to leap by 172 percent to $6 trillion in those nations between 2000 and 2007. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises. First. the likelihood for conflict increases. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defense behavior of interdependent states. Second. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon. and array of crops and natural resources has made it largely self-sufficient. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. Brazil's record commodity exports have bolstered its revenues and reserves to the point that it shed its external debts and became a net creditor to the world in January. June 2. The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Several notable contributions follow. & Weerapana. soybeans. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. “Economic Integration. 89) Economic decline has been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. Nuclear war Royal 10 Jedediah Royal. which at the turn of the decade was a debt-ridden ward of the International Monetary Fund. prompting Wall Street ratings agencies to raise the nation's credit rating above junk status .” LexisNexis Brazil's star rising Perhaps the most notable rising star among developing countries getting a lift from the commodities boom is Brazil. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. “Brazil tipped to be major world economic power.html Sam Zell. Crisis could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U. ‘Diversionary theory’ suggests that. believes Brazil ticks all the right boxes. 'It has the chance 30 years from now of being a bigger economic power than China." he said.and its exports have tripled since 2003 amid booming global demand for steel. dyadic and national levels. They write.com/news/southamerica/brazil-tipped-to-be-major-world-economic-power-20080503906. highly-trained work force.KY 1NC Brazil Turn High food prices key to Brazil’s economy Patrice Hill. 'I'd buy Brazil. 2004). Legal and Political Perspectives. 03 May 2008. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflict self-reinforce each other. the Latin American giant whose exports of everything from beef to oranges have turned it into an economic force to contend with this decade. said Joseph P. 213-215 Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict.” http://www. particularly during periods of economic downturn. The investment bank believes Brazil is on course to be the 5th largest economy in the world by 2050. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic.S. Quinlan. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson’s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. chief executive of Chicago Tribune and chairman and president of Equity Group Investments LLC.” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic. orange juice and sugar. 2008. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that ‘future expectation of trade’ is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavious of states. “High prices not all bad. "Going to the mall on Saturday afternoon is just as popular in Bangkok and Sao Paulo as it is in Boston and San Antonio." Brazil is key to the global economy Property Wire. Brazil's economy expanded by 5. medium and small powers. 1999).propertywire. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. As such. exogenous shocks such as economic crisis could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. The surge in food prices after years of stagnation has been especially kind to Brazil. if the expectations of future trade decline . "The penchant to consume is gaining traction globally.a fitting symbol for the country's meteoric rise. sitting . 1995). as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. The growing incomes and rising opportunities for people in Brazil and other commodity-rich countries have raised living standards and enabled consumers to purchase more from abroad. chief market strategist at Bank of America Corp. However. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. P. Seperately. He said Brazil's large population of 180 million people. Third. The Washington Times. Moreover.' Goldman Sachs is also tipping Brazil for big things although on a longer timescale than Zell. With a recent major discovery of oil off the coast of Rio de Janiero. Developing nations provide materials. 2002.the fastest rate in three years . when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. 2010. Alternatively. Department of Defense. some analysts think Brazil may soon become a major exporter of oil as well. iron-ore. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations . which in turn returns the favor. on the systemic level. on a dyadic level. Copeland’s (1996.
and Blomberg. crisis and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economicsecurity debate and deserves more attention. DeRouen (1995). due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. Wang (1996). and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. recent economic scholarship positively correlated economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. This implied connection between integration. . and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.KY governments have increase incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a ‘rally around the flag’ effect. Miller (1999). dyadic and national levels. In summary. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. Hess. Gelpi (1997). and thus weak Presidential popularity.
php?id=674707 SAO PAULO. Tombini said Brazil has room to boost economic growth by fuelling consumption without threatening its 4. bankruptcy in 2008.75% in the first quarter of 2012 from a year earlier.47% contraction in the third quarter of 2009. down from 7. “Important stimulus measures that have already been introduced haven’t fully taken hold yet. June 21 (BERNAMA-NNN-MERCOPRESS) – Brazil’s economy will be expanding in the beginning of next year at the fastest pace since the last quarter of 2010.5% in the first quarter of 2013 from a year earlier. the national statistics agency said. The world’s biggest emerging economy after China will grow more than 4. Tombini said at an event in Sao Paulo. its worst performance since a 1. . said central bank President Alexandre Tombini . according to the statistics agency. spurring a rebound from the first quarter. Record low unemployment will help sustain domestic demand. when Brazil posted its weakest year-over-year economic performance since the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. cut taxes and taken measures to boost credit in a bid to shore up economic growth.KY 2NC Brazil Turn---UQ Brazil’s economy is growing Bernama 6/21 Malaysian National News Agency 2012 “Brazil’s Central Bank Forecast Strong Rebound In 2013” http://www. Inflation slowed to 4.bernama.31% in Sept.com/bernama/v6/newsworld. he said.” The economy expanded 0. at this moment that inflation continues to slow and move toward the target” Tombini said. Growth will accelerate to a 4% pace in the last quarter of this year. stimulating new private investments that will support sustainable growth over the next years.99% in the 12 months through May. President Dilma Rousseff’s administration has reduced the benchmark interest rate to a record low. “It’s import to highlight.5% inflation target.” Tombini said. “Cosumption is what will propagate growth.
and its (alleged) repository of beautiful women but also because of the position it commands in the global economy. for six years . I would not want to take anything away from GS here but simply note that the BRIC narrative is not exactly fitting for what is happening in the global economy. to some extent shared by the other usual suspects who make up the notorious BRIC group. May 20.Copenhagen Business School. while Burgan is claimed to have up to 72 billion). Consequently. “Brazil's Economy .which has an estimated reservoir of between 5 and 8 billion barrels of oil. I will try to present an argument to explain why it is that I am so very constructive on the upside potential for Brazil's economy. Petrobras is rumored to be hawking as much as 80% of global capacity as a function of the company's demand for deep drilling rigs and given the fact that these things don't exactly come off the shelf with the same ease as flat screens it will take some time for supply to respond to the increased demand thus pushing up rent for these vessels. Perhaps the most telling sign of Brazil's increasing status as a global force to be reckoned with was the recent announcement by Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP) of the discovery of a new oil field (Carioca) which potentially holds as much as 33 billion barrels of oil . Extraordinary evidence of this was delivered in the context of Petrobras' demand for the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to put action behind the recent discoveries. how it got to where it is today and where it is likely to go in the future? First. of course. while at the same time trying to untangle (as I have tried so many times before) some of the above mentioned areas of discussion and debate in the context of the global economy and Brazil. are sure to calm down even the most careful treasurer in the Brazilian finance ministry. oranges. This new found oil prowess even prompted the president Lula da Silva recently to suggest that Brazil enter OPEC. Of course.Ghawar reputedly holds as much as 83 billion barrels of crude. global inflation.5 mill USD the corresponding date 2008 (note that the exchange rate is with our US friend here too). Of course. and global liquidity/SWFs just to name a few. However.making it the third-largest oil field ever discovered (only Saudi Arabia's Ghawar and Kuwait's Burgan fields are bigger . Specifically.com/2008/05/brazils-economy-not-emerging-anymore. and could itself produce output at the not to be sneezed at rate of a million barrels a day .S. beef.this is very likely to fast forward Brazil rapidly up through the ranks of global oil producing nations.enough to supply every refinery in the U. 2008. Obviously.KY 2NC Brazil Turn---KT Econ Brazil’s economy is key to the global economy. These discourses include the debate on decoupling/re-coupling.better positioned than China Claus Vistesen. even border lining on a bubble if you look at the growth rate alone. iron ore etc but now also the black gold. not only because of its fabulous nature. India. Brazil's economy represents an excellent point of departure for the evaluation of many highly strung discourses in the context of the global economy and her financial markets. the figures for PPP adjusted GDP are interesting since they show how Brazil is steadily and unrelentlessly creating an ever larger share of global GDP. Thus assured of Brazil's current economic potential we should take a few steps back and have a look at the historical economic performance of Brazil.html Brazil is interesting. Petrobras (Petroleo Brasileiro SA) is not sitting idle and the effects of Brazil's oil discoveries are already rippling through the market. It is indeed true that the four economies are amongst the fastest growing economies of the world but they are very difficult in terms of structural setup which tends to blur the analysis.blogspot. it is difficult to make solid conclusions solely on the basis of growth figures but as can readily be observed Brazil is moving up in the world. as originally coined by Goldman Sachs.Not Emerging Anymore?” http://globaleconomydoesmatter. This performance is. if realized. Over the three year period a US investor investing 1 mill USD the 16th of May 2005 would have been able to walk away with just shy of 4. I would distinguish between Brazil. why not take a glance at some charts? It does not take much of a macroeconomist to see how the stories above tell a story of rapid economic development. Petrobras thus projects investments to the tune of 112 billion USD between 2008 and 2012 which. the set up of a proper supply chain in the context of oil production takes time and it will take at least one year before we see the first barrels rolling in from Tupi not to speak of Carioca.g. The inflation figure also shows that almost a decade's worth of rampant inflation has now receded to much more comfortable levels. the latter topic being the focus of this note. rice. standard deviation or global beta) but the rate of expansion in the main stock index is still quite remarkable. soya. Such oil discoveries come at a near-perfect time for Brazil who thus seems set not only to enjoy the upward march of commodities such as sugar. Coupled with the discovery last year of the Tupi field . Soon in fact China may join Russia's side of the fence if the inflation bonfire currently experienced proves inextinguishable. . Especially. In many ways. its rhythmic and musical heritage. such examples are not kosher as we are not looking at risk (e. as Edward also hints in a recent article the oil discoveries mentioned above represent a good initial image of Brazil's growing role in the global economy. Bretton Woods II/global imbalances. macroeconomist. As for the allure of Brazilian asset markets the last figure just about sums it up. and China on one side and Russia on the other. In what follows.
trailing the rest of Latin America. the firm said. reinforcing signs that its consumer-led growth model. a magnet for investment over the past decade. the national statistics agency said in a report today. the strategy pursued by two successive presidents. is a particular risk to the housing market. is faltering even as the government cuts taxes and lowers borrowing costs to stoke spending by the 40 million Brazilians who rose out of poverty from 2003-2011. A slowing economy has sent the real down 21 percent against the dollar since the summer — from 1.growing sectors will lose steam.5 percent from last year’s 2. Economists in the latest weekly central bank survey cut their forecast for 2012 growth for the third straight week to 2. That means the public sector is preventing an even worse slowdown. In a report issued Monday.9 percent for all U.com/news/2012-06-01/weakening-brazil-economy-raises-doubts-about-credit-ledgrowth. The MSCI Brazil Consumer Discretionary Index of construction and retail companies has plunged 13 percent this year compared with a 5 percent fall for the Bovespa (IBOV) stock index. a Latin America economist at Standard Chartered Bank. Traders are projecting that central bank President Alexandre Tombini will reduce the target lending rate to as low as 7. said by telephone from New York before the report was released. but the gains are slowing. Growth in the first three months of the year was lower than expected by all but one of 50 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. according to MB Associados. according to the latest statistics. That means they spend more than 30 percent of total income on servicing debt. according to Wells Fargo.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.” Michael Shaoul. 2012.html) Brazil’s economy grew less than analysts expected in the first quarter. which grew by 43 percent over the past 12 months.7 percent. chairman of Marketfield Asset Management. Debt Burden Nearly a quarter of Brazilian households.KY 2AC Brazil Turn Brazilian economy slowing Hanks 6/5 (Douglas. compared with an average 10. Gross domestic product expanded 0. the government has abandoned its goal of boosting growth to 4. A slowdown in mortgage lending. India reported first quarter growth of 5. households. a Sao Paulo-based economic consulting firm. Government figures show g Brazil’s economy grew only .” BRICS Faltering Investors are concerned that some of Brazil’s fastest. Consumer demand driven by credit expansion. Manufacturing continues to grow.miamiherald. Well Fargo pinned much of the problem on a plunge in the South American giant’s farming and cattle industries. http://www.2 percent in the first quarter of 2012. while vehicle sales fell 11 percent in April as the default rate among tapped-out consumers rose to 5.html) The Western Hemisphere’s economic darling may be losing its shine. Consumer-led growth model running out of steam – hurts their economy Colitt 6/1 (Raymond. in 2008 are also losing steam. the least in nine years. Retail sales barely rose in February and March. Brazilian econ sucks Bloomberg 6/4 “Brazil’s economic growth slows” http://gulfnews.1031340 Brazil's real fell to a one-week low and yields on interest-rate futures contracts dropped after reports showed the nation's economic growth was slower than forecast.S.bloomberg. “People owe a lot and own too much stuff. Brazilian economy losing steam.5 percent. its slowest pace in 13 years.3 percent yesterday.99 percent. they forecast the second-largest developing economy after China will grow less than 3 percent for the second consecutive year in 2012. as a weakening global economy cuts into demand. “The economy is stuck. . Brazil’s economy has slowed considerably in recent months.” Italo Lombardi. As Europe’s debt crisis has deepened. While economists expect the pace of growth to accelerate in coming months. the futures yields indicate. 2012.9 trillion in losses in world stock markets since May.com/business/economy/brazil-s-economic-growth-slows-1. The best performer in Brazil: government spending.8 percent.2 percent in the first quarter and 0. Consumer spending grew by 1 percent in the first quarter.8 percent from the same period a year ago. are over-indebted. Weaker Brazil Economy Raises Doubts About Credit-Led Growth. its longest losing streak since February 2009.58 per dollar to $1.5 percent expansion. Shaoul said.75 per cent by the end of August. which increased 1.com/2012/06/04/2832867/brazilian-economy-losing-steam.2 percent. The real fell for a third straight month in May.98`. compared to a meager 1. particularly those in lower-income brackets. China this year will expand 8. http://www. Other emerging markets that have been powering the world economy since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. “Brazil had a great decade and now it’s going into a slowdown. causing $3. whose median forecast was for a 0. is running out of steam.
Like other emerging countries that learned the bitter lessons of the 1990s. housing and public works. financial system seemed to teeter on collapse.KY said by phone from New York. It fell 2.5 per cent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. . Brazil's economy expanded 0.5 per cent in May. Baosteel of China and Dongkuk of South Korea. They are investing to produce steel for export to Asian markets – but also to supply Brazilian manufacturers struggling to meet accelerating domestic demand for motor vehicles.04 per centage point. “Now we have diversified. Brazil’s economy is much stronger this time around.8 per cent from a year earlier. saying in effect that in terms of financial crises. compared with the 0. market crisis” http://articles. Gross domestic product grew 0. already underway. are building multibillion-dollar steel plants in partnership with Brazilian iron ore producer Vale. not mine. “The GDP data reinforce the trend of the central bank to cut rates. Yields on the interest-rate futures contract due in January 2014 fell 4 basis points. two other international steel companies. more diversified and better able to withstand global shocks – including the economic ups and downs of its powerful neighbor to the north. In addition to Germany’s ThyssenKrupp. Ask [President] Bush about the crisis because it’s his.23 per cent. the weakest level since May 24. or 0. ” Lula said at a gathering in the northern city of Mossoro. the shoe is on the other – meaning American – foot. They are at the vanguard of foreign companies rushing in to position themselves for what many see as a structural change in Brazil’s economy. Brazilian economy is resilient LA Times 8 “Brazil unfazed by U.0401 per US dollar after touching 2. to 8.0447. if the United States coughed.S. appliances. falling short of the 1. The worsening global outlook and speculation that Brazil's central bank will make deeper cuts in borrowing costs helped drive the real's depreciation. That change.2 per cent in the first quarter from the previous three months.latimes. booming consumption and reduced poverty.6 per cent this week and 6. according to Lombardi.3 per cent median projection. “A few years ago.com/2008/sep/22/world/fg-brazil22 9/22 But as the U. few here seemed too concerned . we don’t depend so much on one or two countries… . Brazil got pneumonia. centers on the emergence of a middle class.9 per cent to 2. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in fact felt confident enough Friday to take a few pokes at the United States.” Brazil’s growing appeal to investors from around the world is a convincing endorsement of his confidence. extending their weekly decrease to 29 basis points.” The real declined 0.S.
Algeria. Yemen. in 15 countries in Asia. An article in Foreign Affairs magazine earlier this year noted that a list of the world`s major wheat importers in 2010 includes of number of Middle Eastern countries where governments are fragile or have already fallen. Following the self-immolation death of a Tunisian produce vendor. I believe it is more than a coincidence that in December 2010. More recently.KY 2NC Arab Spring Scenario High food prices key to Arab Spring revolts Senator Richard Lugar 11 “ADDRESS AT THE NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION” Congressional Press Release Dec 13 lexis In recent years. we have seen two clear examples of how hunger can lead to instability and conflict. Libya and Tunisia. the Middle East. when the Arab Spring began. Latin America. . The first was in 2008. the subsequent pro-democracy demonstrations included protestors waiving baguettes because grain prices had reached intolerably high levels. when a spike in global food prices sparked disturbances in many countries around the globe. Morocco. even higher than in 2008. By one count. there were food riots. and Africa. sometimes quite violent. They include Egypt. an index of global food prices had reached a record high. some have argued that the upheavals in the Middle East have their roots in high food prices.
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