KY

1NC Defense
Food prices don’t affect hunger- it only affects the richest members of other countries Paarlberg 8 (Robert, professor of political science at Wellesley College, April 22, pg. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/22/opinion/edpaarlberg.php)
International prices of rice, wheat and corn have risen sharply, setting off violent urban protests in roughly a dozen countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. But is this a "world food crisis?" It is certainly a troubling instance of price instability in international commodity markets, leading to social unrest among urban food-buyers. But we must be careful not to equate high crop prices with hunger around the world. Most of the world's hungry people do not use international food markets, and most of those who use these markets are not hungry. International food markets, like international markets for everything else, are used primarily by the prosperous and secure, not the poor and vulnerable. In world
corn markets, the biggest importer by far is Japan. Next comes the European Union. Next comes South Korea. Citizens in these countries are not underfed.

Fears of food prices causing instability is media hype Matthews 8 (Mark, Merril Lynch strategist, May 28, pg. http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/05/28/riots/)
Wordage is deep and densely packed. In one article from a respectable newspaper recently, tensions, violence, eruptions, insecurity, desperate, and afraid all managed to be squeezed into nine paragraphs . Food-related riots have been reported in Pakistan, India, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam. But when we called our offices and associates in each of those countries, each one told us there had been no riots. Photographs of machine gun-toting guards protecting rice supplies in the Philippines , for example, or crowds of jostling women at rice distribution centers in Indonesia, paint a thousand words. But visitors to the Philippines know that guns are a fairly common sight there. Contrary to press reports, there have been no riots in the Philippines. The Bangladesh Rifles were deployed to markets in that
country. Not because there were riots, but instead to ensure an orderly disbursement of food, so that middlemen could not hoard it in order to push the price up.

Plan won’t solve hunger- it’s inevitable given growing populations Avery 8 (Dennis, sr. fellow @ the Hudson Institute, May 11, pg. http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/3006)
Even giving up biofuels won’t stave off the world’s hunger for long, because we’ll need more than twice as much food and feed per year by 2050. The number of humans is likely to peak at about 8 billion, up from today’s 6.4 billion, and at least 7 billion of them are likely to be affluent enough to eat meat and ice cream. They’ll have fewer children—but more pets, few of them vegetarian.

The plan won’t affectuate change for years Braun 8 (Joachim Von, Director General, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI ), August 6, pg. http://www.economist.com/debate/index.cfm?
action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829103) The crisis is not short-term. Some have argued that this crisis will be short-lived. As positive price and policy incentives stimulate food production, they say, prices will fall and the crisis will come to an end. I have two responses: First, IFPRI has modelled scenarios for supply responses to high food prices, and even the optimistic scenarios show prices increasing until 2015 (excluding speculative effects which may change matters in the short run). Second, new research shows that young children often never completely recover from temporary episodes of undernutrition. A 2008 Lancet article shows that boys benefiting from a randomised nutrition intervention at a young age earned wages 50% higher 30 years later than boys who did not benefit from the intervention. If lack of food and poor diets

resulting from high food prices prevent infants and young children from getting the nutrients they need, the health and economic consequences for the individuals and society are not temporary, but lifelong . This means that even if prices begin falling today, the effects of this crisis will be with us for years to come.

KY

2NC Defense---XT #1: No Impact
food prices don’t affect the most impoverished Paarlberg 8 (Robert, professor of political science at Wellesley College, April 22, pg. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/22/opinion/edpaarlberg.php)
Data on the actual incidence of malnutrition reveal that the regions of the world where people are most hungry, in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, are those that depend least on imports from the world market. Hunger is caused in these countries not by high international food prices, but by local conditions, especially rural poverty linked to low productivity in farming . When international prices are go up, the disposable income of some import-dependent urban dwellers is squeezed. But most of the actual hunger takes place in the villages and in the countryside, and it persists even when international prices are low.

and our argument is empirically true Paarlberg 8 (Robert, April 22, pg. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/22/opinion/edpaarlberg.php)
The poor in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are hungry even though their connections to high-priced international food markets are quite weak.

In the poorest developing countries of Asia, where nearly 400 million people are hungry, international grain prices are hardly a factor, since imports supply only 4 percent of total consumption - even when world prices are low. Similarly in sub-Saharan Africa, only about 16 percent
of grain supplies have recently been imported, going mostly into the more prosperous cities rather than the impoverished countryside, with part arriving in the form of donated food aid rather than commercial purchases at world prices.

more evidence Paarlberg 8 (Robert, April 22, pg. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/22/opinion/edpaarlberg.php)
There is a severe food crisis among the poor in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, but it does not come from high world prices. Even in 2005 in sub-Saharan Africa, a year of low international crop prices, 23 out of 37 countries in the region consumed less than their nutritional requirements.

KY

2NC Defense---XT #2: Hype
companies have a financial interest in exaggerating food prices Washington Times 8 (April 23, pg. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/apr/23/americans-hoard-food-as-industry-seeks-regs/?page=2) The upswing in prices has been exaggerated by the massive influx of investors and speculators seeking to profit from rising prices for corn, wheat, oil, gold and other commodities. Big Wall Street firms and hedge funds have taken huge positions in futures markets that once were dominated by relatively small operators such as farmers and grain-elevator owners.

While most US shares have taken a beating. July 29. in livelihoods and in climate resilience. that "the hand hoe is an instrument of mass urbanization" and step forward to develop and disseminate appropriate technologies for meeting gaps in yields. And. In a market economy.aspx) More food is already being produced in response to higher prices: forecasts for cereals production in 2008 by the Food and Agriculture Organisation show a significant increase. it’s key to production and productivity Kharas 8 (Homi. John Deere. when demand exceeds supply. When prices fell steeply between 1997 and 2002. sr. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. CGIAR Research Progamme on Climate Change. This pattern is being repeated across the world. http://www. Director. Agriculture and Food Security “A New Vision for Sustainable Agriculture for Rio+20 Summit http://www.KY 1NC Ag Scenario High food prices are key to ag investment Kharas 8 (Homi. cereal production has resumed its upward trend. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. with investments in equipment. but they also encourage more investment and enhance production. CEO of the National Smallholder Farmers Association of Malawi. Food production is key---solves hunger Bruce Campbell 12 Ph.aspx) The good news is that higher food prices are exactly what is required to restore balance in the market. sr.edu/opinions/2008/0729_food_prices_kharas. We must take heed of the reminder from Dyborn Chibonga. Now that prices have risen back to the levels of the mid-1990s.com/bruce-campbell-phd/rio20-summit-sustainable-agriculture_b_1608824.edu/opinions/2008/0729_food_prices_kharas.html To feed a global population of 9 billion people by 2050 will require a 60 to 70% increase in global food production and a 50% rise in investments in food. This should come as no surprise.brookings. prices rise. With rising demand and constrained supply the iron law of economics permits no other response. agriculture and rural development. Anyone who doubts the link between food prices and agricultural investment should take a close look at the stock price of the world’s largest producer of agricultural equipment. John Deere’s share price has doubled and has split two-for-one in the last two years. cereal production declined.brookings.D. July 29. Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year and seriously undermine the ability of small-scale farmers to provide food for their families and national and global markets. http://www.huffingtonpost. storage and land improvements . Higher prices discourage consumption. . Productivity is on the rise. High food prices are encouraging farmers to invest heavily in new equipment.

so seems unfair to expect its productivity to increase at the same rate as computer production or jet airplane manufacturing. canals and railroads. One tangible sign of America’s sustained agricultural productivity is that we are a large net exporter of agricultural goods . country. more land and energy—as well as by increasing the efficiency with which these inputs are used. And though America has industrialized and then unindustrialized. more machines and capital goods. more to the point. in other words. Agriculture Even Stronger” 2012 http://www. agriculture remains a great constant of our economy.5 million worth of pork. and chicken in 2011). Total growth in agricultural inputs was only 0. productivity derives from multiple sources. media. so steady growth in world demand for meat implies enormous growth in demand for feed crops. Japan.11 percent during this period. and military equipment as one of the main things we sell to the world in exchange for our imports of oil and consumer goods. airplanes. tourism. high-status method of transforming grain into food for humans. South Korea. financial services. And rising living standards in the Pacific Rim promise even more agricultural bounty ahead. Relatively few Americans farm today. A firm.slate. or sector can increase output by increasing the volume or quality of inputs—more workers.html America got its start as an agricultural wonderland . The United States’ great East Coast metropolises arose as export terminals for the agricultural bounty this land bore. and their intersections brought us the cities of the Midwest.63 percent—well below the economy-wide average. As people get richer. for an average annual rate of 1. How productive is America’s farm sector? Viewed in one light. wheat. The big destinations for American farm goods are our neighbors in Canada and Mexico. But the agricultural industry was already mature in 1948. What’s more.S. meaning that almost all the growth in agriculture was due to “total factor productivity. The lion’s share of our exports—about $50 billion worth last year—were basic staples: soybeans. And here’s where America’s farms look like champions. and cotton. they start to want to eat more meat. a continent-sized expanse of free land up for grabs for anyone with the gumption to sail across the ocean and steal it from the Indians. it seems not so impressive: The 2009 output equaled 170 percent of 1948 output . Our early infrastructure megaprojects. but. stands alongside software.” otherwise known as the secret sauce by which an industry gets more efficient at turning inputs into value. and Taiwan. served to further expand the scope of agricultural shipping. plus the hungry mouths of land-scarce Asia—China. but the much-derided mainstream commercial agriculture sector in the United States remains a major engine of productivity and could easily be become stronger yet. our staple grains feed animals. Farming. America exports meat ($12. A cow is essentially a low-efficiency.com/articles/health_and_science/future_tense/2012/06/agriculture_industry_needs_more_farmland_and_better_immigration_laws_. beef. . corn.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---Productivity UQ We control uniqueness—productivity is high now Matthew Yglesias 6/8 is Slate’s business and economics correspondent “How To Make U.

August 1. limited investment in agriculture. along with the soaring prices. The fall in developed countries was most dramatic: from 1991 to 2000 real growth was negative. I wish to emphasize the importance of investment in agriculture to improve food security.org/English/thewto_e/minist_e/min01_e/statements_e/st95. www. pg. That is code for saying that prices were too low. floods and fires.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---Investment Investment is key---offsets food prices UN News Center 11 “UN food experts call for increased agricultural investment to offset soaring prices. USAID support for agricultural science in Africa has been cut by 75% over the last two decades. Public sector investment is needed to establish the basic conditions for productivity growth and this will require a reversal of the decline in aid flows to agriculture and increased national budget allocations. African conditions were not suitable for high-yielding Asian hybrids and African high-yielding varieties were not developed and distributed. Evidence clearly shows that countries which decreased the number of undernourished in the 1990s have substantially increased capital stock is agriculture whereas capital stock declined in those where the number of hungry increased. rice production in Africa was being outstripped by population growth.un. low prices discourage ag investment that is the key to overcoming hunger Kharas 8 (Pro Homi. http://www. But governments also responded by cutting their investments in agriculture.cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065) Low international food prices were partly to blame. sr. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. Support to ensure more farmers are willing and able to generate marketable surpluses will be critical in meeting increased demands in the future. irrigation and marketing infrastructure were too low to justify investment.wto. Joachim von Braun’s own organisation. Africa’s poor farmers simply could not compete when international food was so cheap. cited under- investment among four challenges in the overall food security situation. November 11.org/apps/news/story. the growth rate of public investment in agriculture fell in every region in the world. African food production per head has declined by 12% since 1980.doc) Once again. Falling production is the inevitable response when private producers are faced with falling prices. coordinator of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon s High-Level Task Force on Global Food Security. weather-related disasters such as droughts. By the mid-1990s. As real food prices fell from 1975 onwards. A point that we ve been maintaining now for the last 30 years is that there is systematic and serious under-investment in agriculture and food security and that s a problem now he later told a news conference. and pricing and marketing policies that penalized farmers”.com/debate/index. Africa had to use scarce foreign exchange to import rice and household food consumption did not grow. singles out “poor infrastructure. the International Food Policy Research Institute. but most of the needed investment will have to come from the private sector in national economies. David Nabarro. senior United Nations experts today called for greater investment in agriculture from both the public and private sectors to increase smallholder productivity . investment is vital to overcoming hunger Haen 1 (Hartwig de. pg.” Feb 18 http://www. Low food prices meant that rates of return on proposed projects in roads. and political changes and instability that are disrupting food supply chains.asp? NewsID=37570&Cr=food+prices&Cr1 Faced with soaring food prices for the second time in three years. In Africa in the 1990s.economist. high transport costs. it averaged just 1% per year. In an assessment of declining African food production. To achieve this increased investment is paramount. Policy-related solutions are also required to increase the longer-term resilience of global agriculture to allow greater levels of supply to markets as demand grows according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Particular attention is needed to increase smallholder productivity growth and to their increased integration into markets. .

short-term hunger alleviation and long-term rural development .cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068) In the last analysis. August 6. March 14. Higher farmgate prices are a key element for this to happen. And it started with a rise in food prices. sr. "Rural development is also key to any substantial progress and fighting hunger itself is the key to the Millennium Goals. fellow @ the Brookings Institute . http://www.htm) "These funds must be mobilized to fight hunger directly.com/debate/index.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---Rural Development High food prices are key to rural development Kharas 8 (Homi. "You can't improve people's health if they're hungry. pg. This is vital to combatting hunger FAO 2 (Food and Agricultural Organization. rural families were able to afford to send their children to school rather than having them work as farm labourers.org/news/2002/020303-e. One blogger commenting on this debate offered a nice example of this process at work. who directs FAO's analysis of agriculture's role in development. When Vietnam liberalised and raised rice prices in the 1990s. And you can't persuade farmers to innovate if they are just barely able to survive" . So we need that twin-track approach -. These educated children are today fuelling Vietnam’s rapid growth. The country has seen arguably the fastest decline in poverty in history.economist." says William Meyers. You can't improve education if children are too undernourished to learn.fao. You can't preserve the environment if people are forced to claw every last bit of nutrition from exhausted soil. almost everyone agrees that we need faster rural development to alleviate poverty and hunger. http://www. pg.

to feed the world's projected population.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---XT More Food Key That solves hunger Serageldin 96 (Ismail. agricultural production must increase by at least 2 percent every year to almost double yields on existing land in the next 30 years. . More than 80 percent of people in developing countries now have adequate diets.. up from 64 percent in 1970. Now.t.com/articles/1996/11/15/edser. pg. http://www.php) The increase in per capita supplies took place despite a doubling of world population to 6 billion .iht. November 15.

sr. Yes. these problems got worse.cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068) Are today’s food prices fair to producers and consumers? Yes. Yes. There has been very little progress in Africa over the last decade.com/debate/index.com/debate/index.economist. fellow @ the Brookings Institute . not better.cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065) Government interventions and distortions in food markets have been with us for decades. . Give a different system a chance. During a 30-year period of declining food prices from 1973 to 2002. in many countries. fellow @ the Brookings Institute . pg. If a strategy has not worked for 30 years. 30 years of low prices prove they don’t solve hunger Kharas 8 (Pro Homi. But the last time food prices were as high as they are today we witnessed the Green Revolution and a rapid reduction of rural poverty in one of the largest population centres of the world. http://www. surely there is an upside to changing strategies. August 6. This is already happening in Asia and other parts of the world. pg. because higher food prices will bring about new investments in agriculture and higher global production. August 6. because without higher food prices.cfm? action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 To all those who bemoan the hunger and hardship that higher food prices are causing for the poor. I would simply say that a system which failed to produce any marked change in hunger and poverty over a 30-year period of price declines was not working for the poor. http://www.low prices haven’t ever alleviated hunger Kharas 8 Homi. and will accelerate over time. land use would shift towards corn-for-ethanol and other biofuel crops and we would have less food available. August 1. sr. because the great urban/rural divide that was cleaving societies across the developing world has now narrowed.economist.economist. sr. According to the United Nations. pg. more ev Kharas 8 (Homi. South Asia. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. Yes.KY 2NC Ag Scenario---AT Low Prices Solve Hunger we control uniqueness. The prolonged period of low food prices did very little to reduce poverty and hunger.com/debate/index. more than 20% of children under five were severely or moderately underweight (the UN’s indicator of hunger) in 2000-04 in most of sub-Saharan Africa and in several countries in Asia. http://www. because a system with food prices in free fall for 30 years did not produce any measurable decline in hunger and poverty. especially in Africa where it is most intransigent. So have the problems of hunger and malnutrition in the developing world.

where there is little investment. “You’re seeing now billions of dollars of investment pouring into Africa.” says Josette Sheeran.” The world’s agricultural growth potential is in Africa. November 8.” she says. January 27th. Their governments spend far more per head on them than they do on the small farmers and landless. says the head of the United Nations’ World Food Programme. so I believe the time has come for the African farmer. This is economics as paranoia. Asia and Latin America. few schools or health clinics.FoodPrices. Most of them are small farmers or landless farm workers. Belatedly last month the World Bank has decided that improving economic growth in rural areas is by far the best way of reducing poverty among the world’s poorest people. but they may actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise for African farmers. long ago in Maoist times the friend of the peasant. controls food prices to keep its city people happy. Rio de Janeiro or Bombay live longer and in better health than their rural compatriots. not across the value chain or food production but I believe the opportunity is there . and only rutted roads and battered trucks to link their produce to the market place.the market.wsj. “There is a sense of panic. . or you can look it as a tremendous opportunity because everyone has to eat. In Russia.those left behind in the remote reaches of the countryside. in pushing up agricultural prices. http://blogs.KY 1NC Poverty Turn Rising food prices are the best way to reduce poverty.” http://transnational.” says Abdolreza Abbassian. goes to the rural poor. The European Union has suspended its “set-aside” rules that ban farmers from planting cereals on 10% of their land. whereby the urban minority of the world.com/davos/2012/01/27/could-high-food-prices-be-a-blessing-in-disguise-for-africanfarmers/) High food prices may sound catastrophic. referring to a a theory that once population growth exceeds agricultural production. Shanghai. price controls on basic foodstuffs have been imposed.world’s poorest are rural farmers Jonathan Power. The world can’t feed itself in 2050 without the African farmer having its time in the sun. Only 4% of foreign aid. They would benefit even more if governments would allow markets to do their job. The majority of slum residents of Lagos. The truth is this is a long overdue correction in the terms of trade. not enough. according to the World Bank’s latest report. We should feel a bit less pity for these urban consumers. Yet the cacophony of apparently “informed opinion” now giving vent is loudly moaning about food price rises. China for example.html Most of the world’s poor live in the rural backwaters of Africa. secretary of the grains trading group at the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation. “If you solve hunger.org/Columns_Power/2007/43. “You can look at hunger as a Malthusian nightmare. where yields are one tenth of what they could be with proper investment and conditions. Could High Food Prices Be a Blessing in Disguise?. Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research. is doing much of the job for it! High food prices good – African Farmers Hotter 12 (Andrea. headlines the Financial Times. “High food prices could help the very poor. 2007. people will be forced to return to subsistence-level conditions. executive director of the WFP. have long been subsidised by the poorest of the poor. “The first global food shortage since the 1970s”. whether they be shanty town dwellers in Nigeria’s Lagos or Parisian consumers of Danone’s yoghurt whose prices have just been raised by 10%. The overwhelming majority of them are starting to benefit from the present rise in global food prices. What fortuitous timing. you create jobs up the entire hunger chain.

Most of the evidence I have seen suggests that when looked at in detail. copper. raising living standards and feeding the emergence of a middle class.carnegieendowment. because a system with food prices in free fall for 30 years did not produce any measurable decline in hunger and poverty. Europe and Japan pay for fuel and other raw materials amounts to a massive transfer of income to the developing world. Rising food prices cause a net decrease in poverty Sandra Polaski. But the last time food prices were as high as they are today we witnessed the Green Revolution and a rapid reduction of rural poverty in one of the largest population centres of the world. 2008. where the money is fueling rapid growth. Rising prices might improve local economies in rural areas in ways that benefit non-farming households. "Latin America and the OPEC countries are the greatest beneficiaries. surely food prices are no exception.pdf Rising food prices can either reduce or increase poverty. land use would shift towards corn-forethanol and other biofuel crops and we would have less food available.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. but a boon to the emerging economies. Unskilled workers in urban areas may also be affected. If food prices go down. since a rising tide can lift even a poorly sailed boat. Commodity boom creates a net gain for developing countries Patrice Hill. China has cultivated close ties with African nations like Sudan and Angola to ensure it has the raw materials it needs . the poverty impact will also depend on how price changes are transmitted through labor markets. diamonds and other basic goods the world needs for sustenance and growth. landless farm workers may benefit. although their rising costs for food might outweigh the benefits.the world's richer countries are paying the biggest price because they are dependent on developing nations for the raw materials they need to fuel their economies. however. households that produce and sell food crops will benefit from an increase in prices.almost all of which are commodity importers. a number of studies using detailed household data have called that generalization into question. because without higher food prices. one might assume that rising food prices would tend to alleviate poverty on average and at the global level. Surprisingly. Senior Associate and Director. perhaps the best performance in history. As there is an upside to most things. 2008. Chile.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 Are today’s food prices fair to producers and consumers? Yes. "The strong revenues are even helping the countries where government policies are poor.copper.economist. Poverty. Equity and Development Program. The hundreds of billions more dollars each year that consumers in the United States. “The Proposition's closing statement." Mr. Yes. This is already happening in Asia and other parts of the world. Botswana. unless they buy more food than they sell. Now. Africa holds many of the crucial minerals . contributing to the supply of labor and perhaps lowering wages. aluminum. such as those of small-scale traders and service providers.Some have argued that the proposition is unfairly worded. There were relatively few studies that used actual data on sources of household incomes as well as household food expenditures to explore this question. Most Middle Eastern nations as well as countries such as Brazil.primarily the urban poor not engaged in farming or mining .new investments and rural /urban gap Homi Kharas. MAY 2008. Developing nations provide materials. but economists say the commodities boom is probably helping more poor people than it hurts because developing countries are the primary source of raw materials. averaging 5." said David Wyss.giving a shot in the arm to some of the weakest economies on the continent. This view held that because more poor households were net food buyers than were net food sellers. gold. http://www. most poor people will gain from higher food prices. depending on how poor households earn their income and how they spend it. rice. Wyss said. wheat. because higher food prices will bring about new investments in agriculture and higher global production. and will accelerate over time. the conventional view has been the opposite in recent decades. For example. A forthcoming study by two . August 6. Wyss said. lower food prices would alleviate poverty. The factors determining the impact on poverty are complex and the results are likely to vary among countries and for different crops. but sub-Saharan Africa is also a winner.that fast-rising Asian economies like China and India needed to fuel their rapid development.4 percent real growth over the past five years. nickel. many of which are net exporters of commodities. In addition to direct selling and buying of food. Instead let us be clear about the real changes in people’s lives that can come about in the long run from higher food prices. Venezuela. uranium . Trade. While high costs are a burden on millions of people in the developing world . South Asia." Mr. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development.” LexisNexis The hardship of high food and fuel prices for the world's most impoverished people has garnered much attention.Yes. Because about seventy-five percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas where agriculture is the main economic activity. if rising prices lead farmers to expand production and hire more farm labor.KY 2NC Poverty Turn---XT Link Higher food prices solve poverty. “Rising Food Prices. laborers from the countryside may search for work in nearby towns and cities. "High commodity prices are a problem for the industrial countries . Zambia and Congo are major beneficiaries of the sixfold increase in oil prices since 2002 as well as record high prices for corn. because the great urban/rural divide that was cleaving societies across the developing world has now narrowed. Yes.com/debate/index. chief economist at Standard & Poor's Corp. “High prices not all bad. I do not want this debate to be about such sophistry. and the Doha Round.” The Economist.org/files/polaski__food_prices. June 2. http://www. For example. Argentina. soybeans. The Washington Times.

Among poor net food buying households. and spillover effects of agricultural prices in rural economies and tested them with household survey data. developed theoretical models of the role of labor markets. whether directly through farming or pastoral activities or through wage and business income that is linked to agricultural incomes.5 Rising food prices would tend to transfer income from richer to poorer households. meaning that rising prices would have only small impacts on expenditure and might be outweighed by changes in income. They also provide important analytical foundations for further work to better understand the relationship of food prices to poverty. The study then explores the links between agricultural prices and the sources of income for net food buying rural households.KY World Bank researchers finds that in a sample of nine low income countries. finding that about half of their income depends on agriculture. almost half spent less than ten percent of their income on food. Two other seminal studies.6 They demonstrate that secondary effects may outweigh the direct effects of food prices. Findings from all of these studies indicate that a simple focus on net consumption versus net production is likely to be misleading. while lower prices do the opposite. the net food sellers were poorer than net food buyers. one for Bangladesh and one for Mexico. . land markets.

One blogger commenting on this debate offered a nice example of this process at work. These educated children are today fuelling Vietnam’s rapid growth. Higher farmgate prices are a key element for this to happen. http://www.com/debate/index. August 6. 2008.” The Economist. “The Proposition's closing statement. rural families were able to afford to send their children to school rather than having them work as farm labourers.KY 2NC Poverty Turn---Ag Key Growth in agriculture key to solving poverty Homi Kharas. . almost everyone agrees that we need faster rural development to alleviate poverty and hunger.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 In the last analysis. When Vietnam liberalised and raised rice prices in the 1990s. And it started with a rise in food prices. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. The country has seen arguably the fastest decline in poverty in history.economist.

cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 To all those who bemoan the hunger and hardship that higher food prices are causing for the poor. Give a different system a chance. Could anything have generated a successful change to encourage more production in the absence of higher food prices? I think not. “The Proposition's closing statement.low prices have entrenched poverty for 30 years Homi Kharas. . 2008. surely there is an upside to changing strategies. I would simply say that a system which failed to produce any marked change in hunger and poverty over a 30-year period of price declines was not working for the poor. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. We needed a change.com/debate/index. http://www.” The Economist. If a strategy has not worked for 30 years. Let there be no mistake.economist. Our global food production system was under severe threat in the early years of this century.KY 2NC Poverty Turn---No Turns No risk of a turn. August 6.

the report says. This may result in food insecurity and malnutrition. Cambodia or Kenya.especially for young children. and it is both direct and indirect. often irreversible. such as education and health care. Higher food prices have a particularly negative impact on food security when prices spike suddenly or reach extremely high levels. When they occur globally.) When needed to help earn income for the family. Two of these goals. farmers can be expected to ramp up production as much as they can to take advantage. as well as in neighbouring countries in the Horn of Africa. Countries such as Ethiopia. especially for the urban poor. http://www. But in many parts of Ethiopia.com/business/High+food+prices+halt+progress+many+world+poor/6515030/ story. at both household and country levels.KY 2AC Poverty Turn High food prices halt progress for the poor – this directly answers their increased production warrant Cayo 12 (Don. which can have serious health consequences . are on track or close to it. which I recently visited to look into food-related issues. Child malnutrition accounts for more than a third of the under-five mortality . And – Farmers don’t produce enough food to benefit from high prices . during the global recession of 2008. undermined some of the value of these gains. April 25th. the second in three years. The first spike.vancouversun. and reduced nutritional intake. which makes things worse. The best news is that the key goal of reducing by half the number of people who in 1990 lived in abject poverty . "Even temporarily high food prices can affect children's long-term development. So the short-term problem can be acute. development paths. and in the meantime people have to eat every day. or they're feature-length report on my Ethiopia visit is to be published in The Sun on May 5. Price spikes can also limit the ability of poor households to meet important non-food expenses. is estimated to have kept or pushed 105 million people below the poverty line. even if it's short-lived. according to the World Bank's latest Global Monitoring Report.on less than $1.25 a day . And poor nutrition can only make them worse. The effect of the higher food prices varies from region to region and country to country. Food price hikes wreck the poor IFAD 12 (Higher and volatile food prices and poor rural people. putting pressure on their limited financial resources. the report says. drought has sorely reduced local harvests. Price hikes for cereals and other staples can force them to cut back on the quantity or quality of their food. http://www. poor health. with tragic implications in both the short and long term. lowers productivity and can have severe lifelong effects." So this issue. Vicious circles of malnutrition. which reduces income for all. Undernourishment increases disease and mortality. those concerning child and maternal mortality.html#ixzz1ykW8aC2R) The world has attained two important Millennium Development Goals well ahead of the UN's 2015 target.was reached in 2010. which can have broad economic effects. millions of children either have not started or have withdrawn from school because their families can't afford the small cost of attendance . one relating to gender parity in primary schools and one concerning primary school completion rates. Immediate consequences include both the erosion of consumer purchasing power. and are thus cushioned a bit. particularly for children. The effect is worst in poor countries such as Bangladesh." the report notes. June 12th. The second spike in 2010-11 increased that number by more than 10 per cent.org/operations/food/) Food price trends have a major impact on food security. But two others.and malnutrition during pregnancy. High food prices halt progress for many of the world's poor. price hikes can affect low-income. produce most of their own food. yet higher and more volatile food prices are undermining overall progress and trapping millions of families in relentless poverty. But it takes time for new crops to grow. So was the goal of halving the proportion of people without safe drinking water. (A prices rise. and impaired cognitive development set children on lower. Indirect effects include reduced remittances from relatives who find work abroad and a sudden influx into the informal sector of workers who lose their jobs.ifad. are seriously lagging. Many of the world’s poorest people spend more than half their income on food. As well. a full five years ahead of schedule. food importing countries. and this should help ease prices. But a 2011 spike in food prices. for more than a fifth of maternal mortality. where a sizable proportion of the food consumed is imported. "Early life conditions [from conception to two years of age] provide the foundations for adult human capital . could have a continuing and serious effect on at least a couple of the other four Millennium Development Goals.

. http://www.KY WFP 11 (World Food Programme. October 10. let alone to sell any. High Food Prices: 10 Questions Answered. Many do not have access to the markets where prices are higher nor the resources they need for inputs like fertilizer to increase their yields.org/stories/rising-food-prices-10-questions-answered) Aren’t high food prices good for poor farmers? High food prices could represent an opportunity for people who make a living from agriculture. The trouble is that many of these people don’t produce enough food even for themselves.wfp.

The socialist vision sees humans as inflexible and slightly stupid." said Angela Me.com/money/2008/may/24food. farmers have switched from growing opium to wheat owing to higher wheat prices! Opium trade threatens instability in the Balkans Duncan 7 (Thomas A. High prices generate the incentives for increasing yield. The Opium trade through the Balkans clearly undermines NATO efforts to maintain long term peace in the region.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-06-12/poppyafghanistan-opium/55655966/1 Poppy cultivation in Afghanistan's key opium producing region has declined 40% over the past four years as coalition and government forces have secured key towns and villages and the Afghan government has ramped up eradication .50 That “Albanian Islamists” and the KLA in Kosovo “have used $4 million in profits from Afghan heroin.” 2012 http://www. has been going on for centuries. an analyst at the U. Brzezinski.dtic." Higher food prices cause afghan farmers to transition away from growing opium Shah 8 (Ajay. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The areas that are more secure are where we had less opium. far below what is possible with contemporary science. Expanded Academic ASAP) FOR THE next several decades. http://www. Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). including SA18 and SA 7 surface-to-air missiles.have extremely poor yields. down from its peak of nearly 256. in India -. The Balkans are the most likely scenario for global war Brzezinski 3 (a professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies.N. Zbigniew. The two eventualities together could then put the prevailing American global hegemony at risk." (1) It is here that America could slide into a collision with the world of Islam while American-European policy differences could even cause the Atlantic Alliance to come unhinged. This year farmers grew poppy on about 143. http://www.000 acres in 2008.. pg. the most volatile and dangerous region of the world--with the explosive potential to plunge the world into chaos--will be the crucial swathe of Eurasia between Europe and the Far East. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is seeking to overthrow the government of Uzbekistan to establish an Islamic regime across central Asia. May 24. "Hegemonic quicksand. When prices change. and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia facilitate opium smuggling and use the trade as a source of revenue to achieve their local aims. we might term this crucial subregion of Eurasia the new "Global Balkans.”51 There is no doubt that the heroin from Afghanistan continues to flow through the Balkans .g. This process.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA470654&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc." The National Interest 74 (Winter 2003): 5(12). . pg. "In all countries we see links between cultivation and security. Vast tracts of land in the world -. of prices sending out signals and yields then going up. to purchase weapons. Office on Drugs and Crime.KY 1NC Opium Turn Opium production declining now Jim Michaels 6/12 “Afghan poppy crops down 40% since '08 as key towns secured. They have also targeted US forces in Afghanistan as well as US diplomatic facilities in central Asia in recent years.rediff. according to Regional Command Southwest. many of which counter US national interest. Heavily inhabited by Muslims. The single great idea of economics is that people respond to incentives. There are reports that in Afghanistan.000 acres in Helmand province. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is an ally of the Taliban and al-Qaeda49 and also benefits from the opium trade. who then need to be told what to do by the government.e. far-reaching changes take place in response .52 Any illicit trade that strengthens local criminals or the potential resurgence of any armed group could provide the spark that reignites a Balkan conflict.htm) The simple fact is the average global yields are far. which they sold in European cities.pdf) There are many other guerrilla-terrorist organizations that benefit from the Afghan drug trade.

The coalition command in Helmand expects to see a 6% to 7% decline in cultivation this year over last. U. The overall reduction in cultivation is due to increased security.S. "Life has not been good for them this year. a key poppy growing area largely controlled by insurgents. The United Nations said it expects to report that cultivation will be little changed this year. forces ordered by the White House two years ago was concentrated in Helmand and the province's sprawling farming region of Marjah. Afghan government eradication and programs designed to encourage farmers to shift to legal crops.com/news/world/story/2012-06-12/poppyafghanistan-opium/55655966/1 Afghanistan is the source of more than 90% of the world's heroin poppies. Much of the initial surge of U. and military officials said. down from about 60% to 70% before the offensive. and most of the crop comes from Helmand. the agricultural adviser for the regional command. It was the second time in the past three years that yields were hurt by weather. Only about 5% of Marjah's farmland is growing poppy today." Harris said of narcotics traffickers. said Wes Harris.KY 2NC Opium Turn---UQ Opium production low Jim Michaels 6/12 “Afghan poppy crops down 40% since '08 as key towns secured.” 2012 http://www. . Poppy farmers were slammed with uncooperative weather this year.usatoday. the regional command said. which hurt yields.N.

The same drastic weather conditions also hurt other crops. led by strong provincial governors. http://www. As wheat prices tumble in markets overflowing with the crop. pg. is creating a food crisis. A major survey of farmers' intentions conducted by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in late 2003 found that 61 percent of farmers interviewed cited poverty and the high prices of opium as the primary motivation for poppy cultivation. but bumper yields meant opium production only fell by 6 per cent.unodc. increasing significantly its domestic price.org/InDepthMain.aspx?InDepthId=21&ReportId=63020) The key attraction .uk/news/world/asia/the-big-question-why-is-opium-production-rising-in-afghanistan-and-can-it-bestopped-960276. Crucially. particularly in the north and north-west where most cultivation is rain-fed. the drop was down to farmers deciding not to plant poppies.5 per cent of the country's poppy fields were eradicated in 2008. http://www. like wheat.html 10/14) There was a 19 per cent drop in cultivation from 2007 to 2008.irinnews. drought contributed to crop failure. in parts of the country that are relatively safe.independent. and we have reverse casual evidence. is the price. .KY 2NC Opium Turn---XT Link high wheat prices causing a shift away from opium The Independent 8 (pg. Yet. however. high wheat prices key to checking opium UNODC 8 (UN Office on Drugs and Crime.low food prices cause resurgence in opium Irin News 8 (pg.pdf) Second. higher farm-gate wheat prices (because of shortages). and that was largely a result of a successful pre-planting campaign.org/documents/data-and-analysis/ExSum25August-standard. High wheat prices and low opium prices are also a factor in persuading some farmers to switch to licit crops. This. nothing compares with the price of opium. http://www. combined with the global impact of rising food prices. and lower farm-gate opium prices (because of excess supply) have significantly improved the terms of trade of food: this may provide further incentive to shift crops away from drugs.co. Only 3.

Major opium trade routes leave Afghanistan in all directions to the international consumer markets. double standards of morality. pg. western authorities claim many of the Islamic groups affiliated with al Qaeda in Europe and Southeast Asia have turned to financing themselves and that dealing in narcotics has become one of their mainstays. and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. Al-Qaeda. nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national. and criminal groups are benefiting from the trade at every stop along the route. the US military have to examine the connections between the international terror organizations. and Chechnya. the United Kingdom is in Afghanistan as part of international community effort to stabilize the country and also because 90 percent of the heroin in the United Kingdom (UK) originates in Afghanistan. as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons. including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion.”43 It has also been reported by DEA sources following the 2001 war in Afghanistan that “al-Qaeda gave large sums of money to Afghan farmers to increase opium production. Terrorism Leads to Extinction Alexander 3 (Yonah. are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. the Central Asian Republics.”44 It appears the US and their allies have had some success reducing the amount of financial support available to international terror organizations in recent years.pdf) The US and her allies appear to have had success cutting into funding to terror organizations. 2001. that on September 11.45 Most of Afghanistan’s poppy products end up in Europe. chemical. Washington Times. and local insurgent-guerrillas. but they will continue to look for new sources of funding. to Moscow Central Asia. Turkey. despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago. Unlike their historical counterparts.. Ehrenfeld (2003) states “With many channels of funding cut off or curtailed since 11 September 2001. August 28. LN) Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that the international community failed. radiological. thus far at least. the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Israel and its citizens. guerilla-insurgent.dtic. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. regional and global security concerns.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA470654&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc. contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. . Russia. therefore. and they cannot stop identifying these new sources and reducing or stopping them.g. It is not surprising.46 Understanding the opium trade routes enables us to understand how terror. Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. to the US through Pakistan. such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism. The opium trade appears to be growing in importance to terror organizations . Likewise. the religionization of politics. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e. biological. Opium drug trade moves to Europe through Pakistan. Why are the United States and Israel. or the Balkans. weak punishment of terrorists. trade routes. According to British Lieutenant Colonel Rochelle. and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) all have benefited from their role in the Afghani opium trade. Hizbollah.KY 2NC Opium Turn---Terrorism Impact opium financing causes global terrorism Duncan 7 (Thomas A. To understand how money is made by many terror guerilla and criminal organizations on the trade route. http://www.

." Mohammed Amin. Terrorists and the CIA.. informal economy will increase."[20] c. In Kosovo."[18] b. you can sell it whenever and get cash. "It is like gold. The Times said the current poppy crop in southern Afghanistan is expected to be lower this year due to bad weather and blight. Professor or Economics at the University of Ottawa. Terrorists and the CIA. Bashkim Gazidede.” Online The supply route for arming KLA "freedom fighters" are the rugged mountainous borders of Albania with Kosovo and Macedonia. officials concede the economics of the situation and the likelihood of corruption among local police make the task difficult. the rate of unemployment increased to a staggering 70 percent (according to Western sources).[14] Mercenaries financed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had been fighting in Bosnia.[15] And the Bosnian pattern was replicated in Kosovo: Mujahadeen mercenaries from various Islamic countries are reported to be fighting alongside the KLA in Kosovo.[17] "Gazidede.. counter-narcotics experts predicted.” Online Bonn and Washington's "hidden agenda" consisted in triggering nationalist liberation movements in Bosnia and Kosovo with the ultimate purpose of destabilising Yugoslavia." Afghanistan has pledged to continue its efforts to eradicate poppy crops and steer farmers into legitimate crops. director of the U. Poverty and economic collapse served to exacerbate simmering ethnic tensions. Seventy-five percent of the heroin entering Western Europe is from Turkey." Some Afghan farmers said they indeed had little choice but to turn to the profitable poppy." another grower told the Times. told The New York Times. "The poppy is always good. May 27 (UPI) -. "The prognosis post-2014 is not a positive one. reportedly a devout Moslem who fled Albania in March of last year [1997].[22] . Alt causes a. a poppy grower in Oruzgan province."[19] A recent intelligence report by Germany's Federal Criminal Agency suggests that: "Ethnic Albanians are now the most prominent group in the distribution of heroin in Western consumer countries. Still.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/05/27/Growth-in-Afghan-poppy-cropsexpected/UPI-16031338132834/ KABUL. "Some money is available through the licit economy. “The KLA: Gangsters. were drafted into the ranks of the KLA . Terrorists and the CIA.[16] According to a Deutsche Press-Agentur report.The withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan will likely result in a new surge in the production of opium poppies. German. But the consequence will likely be that poppies from other parts of the country will fetch a much higher price for the struggling farmers. "I don't have any cash now to start another business. "it is estimated that 4-6 metric tons of heroin leave each month from Turkey having [through the Balkans] as destination Western Europe. Turkish and Afghan instructors were reported to be training the KLA in guerrilla and diversion tactics. economic collapse Chossudovsky 99 Michel. though with the Americans shipping out by 2014 and Afghanistan's economy still weak. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). Professor or Economics at the University of Ottawa. and so the importance of the illicit.KY 2AC Opium Turn Non-unique---opium production high now UPI 5/27 “Growth in Afghan poppy crops expected” 2012 http://www. and if I grow any other crops. Professor or Economics at the University of Ottawa. many impoverished farmers will likely turn to opium as a cash crop.N. And a large part of drug shipments originating in Turkey transits through the Balkans . Financial support from radical groups Chossudovsky 99 Michel. Ethnic Albanians and Serbs were driven into abysmal poverty.. financial support from Islamic countries to the KLA had been channelled through the former Albanian chief of the National Information Service (NIS). 75% percent of the drug money is from Turkey Chossudovsky 99 Michel. but less than in the past as Western contracts dry up. I cannot make a profit. The United States has been leading a long battle to snuff out the Afghan opium industry.” Online Industry and agriculture in Kosovo were spearheaded into bankruptcy following the IMF's lethal "economic medicine " imposed on Belgrade in 1990. Thousands of unemployed youths "barely out of their teens" from an impoverished population. is presently [1998] being investigated for his contacts with Islamic terrorist organizations . The latter objective was also carried out "by turning a blind eye" to the influx of mercenaries and financial support from Islamic fundamentalist organisations. Office on Drugs and Crime in Afghanistan. Afghanistan. “The KLA: Gangsters. The embargo was imposed on Yugoslavia. you can sell it at any time.. said. Economic collapse created an environment which fostered the progress of illicit trade. Albania is also a key point of transit of the Balkans drug route which supplies Western Europe with grade four heroin. “The KLA: Gangsters.upi." Jean-Luc Lemahieu.

Ironically. the Taliban had overseen a significant fall in heroin production in the months before the invasion. according to a UN report. Cutting the supply of heroin was one of the prime reasons given by then-prime minister Tony Blair in 2001 for sending in British troops. it was claimed. Last year opium production halved largely due to a plant infection which drastically reduced yields.000 hectares compared with 104. the ‘reality’ was that forces were too thinly stretched to focus on crop destruction – a move that. fertiliser and cash advances – to distribution and protection. 33 times its level in 2001. Their leader Mullah Mohammed Omar – collaborating with the UN – had decreed that growing poppies was un-Islamic. This is another part of their regime we should seek to destroy. up from 14 a year ago. turned farmers against the troops.co. Afghan drug war debacle: Blair said smashing opium trade was a major reason to invade but 10 years on heroin production is up from 185 tons a year to 5. Officials say there is clear evidence that the opium trade is being orchestrated by the Taliban. However. but the UN figures show that it increased sharply again last year when 131.172 hectares. commanders said. (and) weaken the rule of law.5. in his opening comments.800.dailymail.6billion each year. The warning came at a meeting in Austria of more than 50 countries.KY 1AR Opium Turn---XT UQ Opium production has actually increased Williams 12 (David. Despite spending £18billion and a conflict which has so far cost the lives of almost 400 British troops. cited a 2011 UN survey saying that poppy cultivation has increased by 7 per cent and opium production by 61 per cent in the past year. recorded no poppy cultivation during the 2001 season. February 17th. who was fatally wounded by small arms fire during an insurgent attack on Monday in Helmand Province – the heart of the opium industry.606 in 2001 under the Taliban. Mr Blair said: ‘The arms the Taliban are buying today are paid for by the lives of young British people buying their drugs on British streets. despite the destruction of crops by coalition forces and initiatives to persuade farmers to switch to other produce. Britain alone has spent an estimated £18billion – a further £4billion is said to have been earmarked for this year – in Afghanistan. http://www. Some 15 per cent of Afghanistan’s Gross National Product now comes from drug-related exports – a business worth up to £1. In his opening address to the Vienna conference.800 tons of opium. The United Nations yesterday warned that the situation was out of control. producing some 5. The increase has been attributed to rising opium prices that have driven farmers to expand cultivation of the illicit opium poppy by 7% in 2011.bbc. resulting in one of the world’s most successful anti-drug campaigns. http://www. the UN figures reveal how the outcome has been so dramatically different. ‘Drug trafficking and transnational organized crime undermine the health of fragile states.100 tons.000 in 2005 and 7.000 hectares were under cultivation.800 tons. said his country understood international concerns but noted that ‘95 per cent of poppy cultivation takes place in nine insecure provinces’. Three weeks after the attack on America’s Twin Towers on September 11. 10/11/11. from 2 Squadron RAF Regiment. Analysts say that revenue from the drug has helped fund the Taliban .200 per cent increase in five years. This fell in figures for 2010 because of crop disease.the main ingredient of heroin. ‘Above all. Afghani Opium production is rising BBC 11(BBC. The ban was so effective that Helmand Province. where 398 of its troops have died and thousands have been injured. There was some success but. The rise came even though the Afghan government and Nato have boosted crop eradication measures by 65 per cent and made significant seizures in recent months.uk/news/article-2102158/Heroin-production-Afghanistan-RISEN-61. Cultivation in 2006 reached a record 165.’ But ten years later. a 3. As a result of this ban.html) The West is losing the heroin war in Afghanistan – ten years after Tony Blair pledged that wiping out the drug was one of the main reasons for invading the country. which had accounted for more than half of this production. the UN Secretary General warned that the problem extends beyond those who abuse drugs and is threatening Afghanistan itself. The UN says there are now 17 provinces in Afghanistan affected by poppy cultivation. Afghanistan produces 90% of the world's opium . 2001.800 tonnes this year .’ he said.co. anyway. Such has been the failure to combat the problem that more than 90 per cent of the heroin sold on Britain’s streets is still made using opium from Afghanistan. the Afghan minister. The most recent was Senior Aircraftman Ryan Tomlin. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime estimated that the 2006 harvest was around 6. “Afghan opium production rises by 61% compared with 2010”.’ The UN figures make grim reading for those who backed the invasion. opium poppy cultivation was reduced by 91 per cent from the previous year’s estimate of 82. a glum UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon added: ‘Time is not on our side. the Afghan government must prioritise the issue of narcotics. Declaring that the West had lost its war against the drug. production of the class-A drug by Afghan farmers rose between 2001 and 2011 from just 185 tons to a staggering 5.’ A report by the UN Office of Drugs and Crime said revenue from opium production in Afghanistan soared by 133 per cent last year to about £900million after the crop recovered from a 2010 blight and approached previous levels. with the overthrow of the Taliban opium fields returned. It increased by 61 per cent last year alone. Experts say the Taliban’s involvement in the drugs trade ranges from direct assistance – such as providing farmers with seed. Ban Kimoon. Zarar Ahmed Moqbel Osmani. He urged the international community to work hard in preventing the components needed to turn opium into heroin from entering Afghanistan from neighbouring countries.uk/news/world-southasia-15254788) Opium production in Afghanistan rose by an estimated 61% this year compared with 2010. with vast profits used to buy weapons and fuel the insurgency.

KY
insurgency. Farmers who responded to the survey described economic hardship and lucrative prices as the main reasons for the increase. Nearly 80% of the opium grown in Afghanistan is being produced in
provinces in the south, including Helmand and Kandahar, which are among the most volatile in the country. The UN says this demonstrates that there is a clear link between insecurity and opium cultivation.

Opium production has continued to rise throughout the decade
Williams 12 (David, journalist, “Afghan drug war debacle: Blair said smashing opium trade was a major reason to invade but
10 years on heroin production is up from 185 tons a year to 5,800, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2102158/Heroinproduction-Afghanistan-RISEN-61.html#ixzz1ykokVMTF”, 2/17/12,

The West is losing the heroin war in Afghanistan – ten years after Tony Blair pledged that wiping out the drug
almost 400 British troops,

was one of the main reasons for invading the country. Despite spending £18billion and a conflict which has so far cost the lives of

production of the class-A drug by Afghan farmers rose between 2001 and 2011 from just 185 tons to a staggering 5,800 tons. It increased by 61 per cent last year alone. The United Nations yesterday warned that the situation was out of control. Declaring that the West had lost its war against the drug, a glum UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon added: ‘Time is not on our side.’ The UN figures make grim

reading for those who backed the invasion. Cutting the supply of heroin was one of the prime reasons given by then-prime minister Tony Blair in 2001 for sending in British troops. Three weeks after the attack on America’s Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, Mr Blair said: ‘The arms the Taliban are buying today are paid for by the lives of young British people buying their drugs on British streets. This is another part of their regime we should seek to destroy.’ Warning: UN Secretary General Ban Kimoon has said the drug problem in Afghanistan threatens the entire country with organised crime and trafficking But ten years later, the UN figures reveal how the outcome has been so dramatically different. Some 15 per cent of Afghanistan’s Gross National Product now comes from drug-related exports – a business worth up to £1.6billion each year, it was claimed. Officials say there is clear evidence that the opium trade is being orchestrated by the Taliban, with vast profits used to buy weapons and fuel the insurgency. The warning came at a meeting in Austria of more than 50 countries. Britain alone has spent an estimated £18billion – a further £4billion is said to have been earmarked for this year – in Afghanistan, where 398 of its troops have died and thousands have been injured. The most recent was Senior Aircraftman Ryan Tomlin, from 2 Squadron RAF Regiment, who was fatally wounded by small arms fire during an insurgent attack on Monday in Helmand Province – the heart of the opium industry.

With troops leaving Afghanistan, The opium trade will explode
Farmer, 11
(Ben, Afghani correspondent for The Telegraph, “Afghan opium production to explode as foreign troops withdraw”, 11-25-11, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/8915644/Afghan-opium-production-toexplode-as-foreign-troops-withdraw.html) Taliban insurgents and farmers will take advantage of the withdrawal to increase poppy production, said General Khodaidad.

Afghanistan already produces more than 90 per cent of the world's opium and more than 95 per cent of the heroin on Britain's streets, but he predicted the trade would soon be "completely out of control". Britain has spent tens of millions of pounds on counter narcotics schemes in the
past six years in Helmand. The province remains the world centre of opium production. Gen Khodaidad, who was minister for counter narcotics for four years, said the industry was thriving on Afghan insecurity, corruption and weak government. He said: "The Taliban is stronger than this present government and that directly affects poppy cultivation." "The Taliban explains to the farmer that the foreign troops are leaving and if you grow poppy, I am still here." The Taliban are estimated to raise

annually between £60 and £250 million a year through the trade. High opium prices meant production rose nearly seven percent this year according to the latest United Nations estimates

KY

1NC Warming Turn
High food prices solve global warming Brasher 8 (Philip, 9/14, pg. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080914/BUSINESS03/809140321/-1/NEWS04)
So, it would seem to follow that if food prices go up because commodity prices are rising, well, that's only fair. Americans spend on average 10 cents of every dollar of their income on food. But what if Americans respond to inflation by eating less? Some environmentalists and experts in nutrition consider that a good idea. Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the United Nations' panel on climate change, recently called for

people to consider eating less meat as a way of controlling global warming. Livestock production accounts for an estimated 18 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. That estimate accounts for everything from the fuel used to produce feed and livestock to the impact of
clearing forests for growing feed crops. He told the BBC that "among options for mitigating climate change, changing diets is one thing we should consider." Soaring food prices could be one way to do that. Keith-Thomas Ayoob, a pediatric nutritionist who teaches at New York's Albert Einstein College of Medicine, said at a recent food policy conference that rising prices can be a way to get people to prepare more healthful foods and eat out less.

Global warming is real and happening now---the impact is extinction Kaku 11 Michio Kaku is the Professor Theoretical Physics at City College of New York, Theoretical Physicists, Co-Founder of String Theory, Physics of the
Future By midcentury, the full impact of a fossil fuel economy should be in full swing: global warming. It

is now indisputable that the earth is heating up. Within the last century, the earth’s temperature rose 1.3° F, and the pace is accelerating. The signs are unmistakable everywhere we look:
The thickness of Arctic ice has decreased by an astonishing 50 percent in just the past fifty years. Much of this Arctic ice is just below the freezing point, floating on water. Hence, it is acutely sensitive to small temperature variations of the oceans, acting as a canary in a mineshaft, an early warning system. Today, parts of the northern polar ice caps disappear during the summer months, and may disappear entirely during summer as early as 2015. The polar ice cap may vanish permanently by the end of the century, disrupting the world’s weather by altering the flow of ocean and air currents around the planet. Greenland’s ice shelves shrank by twenty-four square miles in 2007. This figure jumped to seventy-one square miles in 2008. (If all the Greenland ice were somehow to melt, sea levels would rise about twenty feet around the world.) Large chunks of Antarctica’s ice, which have been stable for tens of thousands of years, are gradually breaking off. In 2000, a piece the size of Connecticut broke off, containing 4,200 square miles of ice. In 2002, a piece of ice the size of Rhode Island broke off the Thwaites Glacier. (If all Antarctica’s ice were to melt, sea levels would rise about 180 feet around the world.) For every vertical foot that the ocean rises, the horizontal spread of the ocean is about 100 feet. Already, sea levels have risen 8 inches in the past century , mainly caused by the expansion of seawater as it heats up. According to the United Nations , sea levels could rise by 7 to 23 inches by 2100. Some scientists have said that the UN report was too cautious in interpreting the data. According to scientists at the University of Colorado’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, by 2100 sea levels could rise by 3 to 6 feet. So gradually the map of the earth’s coastlines will change. Temperatures started to be reliably recorded in the late 1700s; 1995, 2005, and 2010 ranked among the hottest years ever recorded; 2000 to 2009 was the hottest decade. Likewise, levels of carbon dioxide are rising dramatically. They are at the highest levels in 100,000 years. As the earth heats up, tropical diseases are gradually migrating northward. The recent spread of the West Nile virus carried by mosquitoes may be a harbinger of things to come. UN officials are especially concerned about the spread of malaria northward. Usually, the eggs of many harmful insects die every winter when the soil freezes. But with the shortening of the winter season, it means the inexorable spread of dangerous insects northward . CARBONDIOXIDE— GREENHOUSEGAS According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, scientists have concluded with 90 percent confidence that global warming is driven by human activity, especially the production of carbon dioxide via the burning of oil and coal. Sunlight easily passes through carbon dioxide. But as sunlight heats up the earth, it creates infrared radiation, which does not pass back through carbon dioxide so easily. The energy from sunlight cannot escape back into space and is trapped. We also see a somewhat similar effect in greenhouses or cars. The sunlight warms the air, which is prevented from escaping by the glass. Ominously, the amount of carbon dioxide generated has grown explosively, especially in the last century. Before the Industrial Revolution, the carbon dioxide content of the air was 270 parts per million (ppm). Today, it has soared to 387 ppm. (In 1900, the world consumed 150 million barrels of oil. In 2000, it jumped to 28 billion barrels, a 185-fold jump. In 2008, 9.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide were sent into the air from fossil fuel burning and also deforestation, but only 5 billion tons were recycled into the oceans, soil, and vegetation. The remainder will stay in the air for decades to come, heating up the earth.) VISIT TO ICELAND The rise in temperature is not a fluke, as we can see by analyzing ice cores. By drilling deep into the ancient ice of the Arctic, scientists have been able to extract air bubbles that are thousands of years old. By chemically analyzing the air in these bubbles, scientists can reconstruct the temperature and carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere going back more than 600,000 years. Soon, they will be able to determine the weather conditions going back a million years. I had a chance to see this firsthand. I once gave a lecture in Reykjavik, the capital of Iceland, and had the privilege of visiting the University of Iceland, where ice cores are being analyzed. When your airplane lands in Reykjavik, at first all you see is snow and jagged rock, resembling the bleak landscape of the moon. Although barren and forbidding, the terrain makes the Arctic an ideal place to analyze the climate of the earth hundreds of thousands of years ago. When I visited their laboratory, which is kept at freezing temperatures, I had to pass through thick refrigerator doors. Once inside, I could see racks and racks containing long metal tubes, each about an inch and a half in diameter and about ten feet long. Each hollow tube had been drilled deep into the ice of a glacier. As the tube penetrated the ice, it captured samples from snows that had fallen thousands of years ago. When the tubes were removed, I could carefully examine the icy contents of each. At first, all I could see was a long column of white ice. But upon closer examination, I could see that the ice had stripes made of tiny bands of different colors. Scientists have to use a variety of techniques to date them. Some of the ice layers contain markers indicating important events, such as the soot emitted from a volcanic eruption. Since the dates of these eruptions are known to great accuracy, one can use them to determine how old that layer is. These ice cores were then cut in various slices so they could be examined. When I peered into one slice under a microscope, I saw tiny, microscopic bubbles. I shuddered to realize that I was seeing air bubbles that were deposited tens of thousands of years ago, even before the rise of human civilization. The carbon dioxide content within each air bubble is easily measured. But calculating the temperature of the air when the ice was first deposited is more difficult. (To do this, scientists analyze the water in

KY
the bubble. Water molecules can contain different isotopes. As the temperature falls, heavier water isotopes condense faster than ordinary water molecules. Hence, by measuring the amount of the heavier isotopes, one can calculate the temperature at which the water molecule condensed.) Finally, after painfully analyzing the contents of thousands of ice cores, these scientists have come to some important conclusions . They found that temperature and carbon dioxide levels have oscillated in parallel, like two roller coasters moving together, in synchronization over many thousands of years. When one curve rises or falls, so does the other. Most important, they found a sudden spike in temperature and carbon dioxide content happening just within the last century. This is highly unusual, since most fluctuations occur slowly over millennia. This unusual spike is not part of this natural heating process, scientists claim, but is a direct indicator of human activity. There are other ways to show that this sudden spike is caused by human activity, and not natural cycles. Computer simulations are now so advanced that we can simulate the temperature of the earth with and without the presence of human activity. Without civilization producing carbon dioxide, we find a relatively flat temperature curve. But with the addition of human activity, we can show that there should be a sudden spike in both temperature and carbon dioxide. The predicted spike fits the actual spike perfectly. Lastly, one can measure the amount of sunlight that lands on every square foot of the earth’s surface. Scientists can also calculate the amount of heat that is reflected into outer space from the earth. Normally, we expect these two amounts to be equal, with input equaling output. But in reality, we find the net amount of energy that is currently heating the earth. Then if we calculate the amount of energy being produced by human activity, we find a perfect match. Hence, human activity is causing the current heating of the earth. Unfortunately, even if we were to suddenly stop producing any carbon dioxide, the gas that has already been released into the atmosphere is enough to continue global warming for decades to come. As a result, by midcentury, the situation could be dire. Scientists have created pictures of what our coastal cities will look like at midcentury and beyond if sea levels continue to rise. Coastal cities may disappear. Large parts of Manhattan may have to be evacuated, with Wall Street underwater . Governments will have to decide which of their great cities and capitals are worth saving and which are beyond hope. Some cities may be saved via a combination of sophisticated dikes and water gates. Other cities may be deemed hopeless and allowed to vanish under the ocean, creating

mass migrations of people. Since most of the commercial and population centers of the world are next to the ocean, this could have a disastrous effect on the world economy. Even if some cities can be salvaged, there is still the danger that large storms can send surges of
water into a city, paralyzing its infrastructure. For example, in 1992 a huge storm surge flooded Manhattan, paralyzing the subway system and trains to New Jersey. With transportation flooded, the economy grinds to a halt. FLOODING BANGLADESH AND VIETNAM A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change isolated three hot spots for potential disaster: Bangladesh, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, and the Nile Delta in Egypt. The worst situation is that of Bangladesh, a country regularly flooded by storms even without global warming. Most of the country is flat and at sea level. Although it has made significant gains in the last few decades, it is still one of the poorest nations on earth, with one of the highest population densities. (It has a population of 161 million, comparable to that of Russia, but with 1/120 of the land area.) About 50 percent of the land area will be permanently flooded if sea levels rise by three feet. Natural calamities occur there almost every year, but in September 1998, the world witnessed in horror a preview of what may become commonplace. Massive flooding submerged two-thirds of the nation, leaving 30 million people homeless almost overnight; 1,000 were killed, and 6,000 miles of roads were destroyed. This was one of the worst natural disasters in modern history. Another country that would be devastated by a rise in sea level is Vietnam, where the Mekong Delta is particularly vulnerable. By midcentury, this country of 87 million people could face a collapse of its main food-growing area. Half the rice in Vietnam is grown in the Mekong Delta, home to 17 million people, and much of it will be flooded permanently by rising sea levels. According to the World Bank, 11 percent of the entire population would be displaced if sea levels rise by three feet by midcentury. The Mekong Delta will also be flooded with salt water, permanently destroying the fertile soil of the area. If millions are flooded out of their homes in Vietnam, many will flock to Ho Chi Minh City seeking refuge. But one-fourth of the city will also be underwater. In 2003 the Pentagon commissioned a study, done by the Global Business Network, that showed that, in a worst-case scenario, chaos could spread around the world due to global warming. As millions of refugees cross national borders, governments could lose all authority and collapse, so countries could descend into the nightmare of looting, rioting, and chaos. In this desperate situation, nations, when faced with the prospect of the influx of millions of desperate people, may resort to

nuclear weapons. “Envision Pakistan, India, and China—all armed with nuclear weapons—skirmishing at their borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and arable land,” the report said. Peter Schwartz, founder of the Global Business Network and a principal author of the Pentagon study, confided to me the details of this scenario. He told me that the biggest hot spot would be the border
between India and Bangladesh. In a major crisis in Bangladesh, up to 160 million people could be driven out of their homes, sparking one of the greatest migrations in human history. Tensions could rapidly rise as borders collapse, local governments are paralyzed, and mass rioting breaks out. Schwartz sees that nations may use nuclear weapons as a last resort. In a worst-case scenario, we could have a greenhouse effect that feeds on itself. For example, the melting of the tundra in the Arctic regions may release millions of tons of methane gas from rotting vegetation. Tundra covers nearly 9 million square miles of land in the Northern Hemisphere, containing vegetation frozen since the last Ice Age tens of thousands of years ago. This tundra contains more carbon dioxide and methane than the atmosphere, and this poses an enormous threat to the world’s weather. Methane gas, moreover, is a much deadlier greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. It does not stay in the atmosphere as long, but it causes much more damage than carbon dioxide. The

release of so much methane gas from the melting tundra could cause temperatures to rapidly rise, which will cause even more methane gas to be released, causing a runaway cycle of global warming.

" writes Noam Mohr in a report for EarthSave International. according to the FAO. because the turnover rate for farm animals is shorter than that for cars and power plants.Changing one's diet can lower greenhouse gas emissions quicker than shifts away from fossil fuel burning technologies.KY 2NC Warming Turn---I/L Livestock is the largest contributor to warming. whose family raised beef cattle in Israel. "If you simply cut down from two burgers a week to one. you've already made a substantial difference.5 tons of CO2-equivalent (in the form of all greenhouse gases) compared to a no-meat diet. they would take many years to build and slowly replace the massive infrastructure our economy depends upon today."Even if cheap."Arguably the best way to reduce global warming in our lifetimes is to reduce or eliminate our consumption of animal products. and livestock will soon be the biggest contributors to warming) Knickerbocker 7 Brad. unlike carbon dioxide which can remain in the air for more than a century. releasing the gas now trapped below decaying vegetation. annual global meat production is projected to more than double from 229 million tons at the beginning of the decade to 465 million tons in 2050.Methane could become a greater problem if the permafrost in northern latitudes thaws with increasing temperatures. Between 1970 and 2002. "Similarly.) to 29 kilograms (64 lbs. February 20.Animal-rights activists and those advocating vegetarianism have been quick to pick up on the implications of the FAO report. total meat consumption in the developing world grew nearly five-fold over that period. Mohr writes. But methane has 23 times the global warming potential (GWP) of CO2 and nitrous oxide has 296 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide.even though they represent far smaller concentrations in atmosphere than CO2. the comparable figures were 65 kilos and 80 kilos. Christian Science Monitor. annual per capita meat consumption in developing countries rose from 11 kilograms (24 lbs."It doesn't have to be all the way to the extreme end of vegan."Researchers at the University of Chicago compared the global warming impact of meat eaters with that of vegetarians and found that the average American diet ." he writes.Beyond that. What's more certain is that emissions of these gases can spike as humans consume more livestock products.) As population increased. This makes livestock the fastest growing sector of global agriculture. methane cycles out of the atmosphere in just eight years.including all food processing steps results in the annual production of an extra 1. that's more than the emissions caused by transportation.). Researchers Gidon Eshel and Pamela Martin concluded that dietary changes could make more difference than trading in a standard sedan for a more efficient hybrid car." . Mr. which reduces annual CO2 emissions by roughly one ton a year. so that lower methane emissions quickly translate to cooling of the earth. which remains the main global warming culprit. Lexis Altogether. the number of people eating meat (and the amount one eats every year) has risen steadily. zero-emission fuel sources were available today.As prosperity increased around the world in recent decades. The latter two gases are particularly troubling . Eshel.(it’s key to methane that contributes more to warming and which is easier solved. (In developed countries." says Dr.

some backlash against intensified farming among green groups. pink. several hundred million years old. bilateral farming aid from Europe dropped by two-thirds and World Bank lending in the sector slipped from 30% to 8% . though South African newspapers reported a boa-constrictor-sized monster twenty feet long.KY 1NC Environment Turn 1. other things being equal.nature. “A research menu. Earthworms. In the United States. There are various ways in which the fruits of scientific research might have helped ease the suffering that comes from this confluence of factors. the largest a ten-foot giant in Australia. The proportion of US aid ploughed into agriculture wilted from 25% to 1% . the International Monetary Fund and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are also opening their coffers. blue. the bank noted with self-reproach — cites 700 published estimates of rates of return on investment in agricultural research. actually. such as in the valleys of three great civilizations . healthy soil with high amounts of organic matter and vice versa. mean higher farm incomes. 2004. Voisin traces man's civilizations in relation to the distribution of active earthworms. The rises accelerated in 2006.com/2ngyqd) — the first of the annual reports to focus on agriculture for a quarter of a century. belatedly. There are many useful directions for such development. eight times the number in the United States and four times the number in India. Not so. drought resistance and reduced requirements for inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides are all promising. http://www. not to mention rice rationing at Wal-Mart's cash-and-carry stores. It took a French scientist and ecologist. Among the most ancient of terrestrial animal groups. It may be only this spring that food prices have started sparking riots on the streets of Haiti and Egypt. High energy prices mean costly fertilizers and insecticides.html This was not a sudden crisis.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/full/453001b. Microsoil. too. It reports an average annual return of 43% . Lumbricus terrestris. Higher food prices. But here. more and more corn (maize) goes to making ethanol. A contributing factor to this decline from the 1990s on was Europe's attitude to genetically modified crops. author of the insightful Soil. the net effect so far has been negative.microsoil. 1 May 2008. and some of them are things no one should want to undo. And although the factors driving them are many and various. Agricultural research systems in sub-Saharan Africa are fragmented into almost 400 distinct agencies. Ten thousand years ago. but food prices have been rising since 2000. the . A study of 42 developing countries covering the period from 1981 to 2003 found that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) that originated in agriculture increased spending by the poor two-and-a-half times more than does GDP growth in other sectors. In the case of the Gates's money. Resources need to go towards coordinating and strengthening local agricultural extension services as an integral part of revamping and reintegrating the research infrastructure. indeed. Nor is the crisis unremittingly heinous. grows barely longer than six inches. immediately after the last ice age. High food prices spark new research into crops which require less pesticides and fertilizers Declan Butler. Public spending on basic agricultural research fell during the 1980s and 1990s in rich countries (see page 8). not to mention making farm machinery more expensive to run. of which he lists some three thousand species. January 20. the pay-offs to agricultural research are massive. development and extension services in developing countries. to this logic. when global cereal stocks dropped to levels not seen since the early 1980s. Many agriculture oriented people still do not understand or appreciate the tremendous enriching value that earthworms have on our soils.com/earthworm. The reasons for this included the perceived success of Green Revolution technologies in Asia. One reason for this is that poor people in poor countries who earn a little extra cash will spend it on basic local goods and services — agricultural growth spurs economic growth from the bottom up. act as a barometer for soil health. they come in various colors and sizes: brown. which both chilled research in the area and reduced incentives for such technologies to be fielded in countries looking to European export markets. most common in the United States and Europe. green and light tan. Pesticides kill earthworms – causes extinction. But although this may suggest benefits for some in the future. Grass and Cancer.” http://www. The past weeks have brought signs that global institutions and donors are beginning to bow. and bank administrators say that a portion of the new money will go towards basic research. where the cutbacks were still severe even though there had been no Green Revolution comparable to that in Asia. and. a good few of them look likely to persist for years to come. Nature Magazine. Earthworms simply cannot proliferate and flourish in areas where chemical fertilizers and pesticides are paramount. André Voisin. purple. the smallest barely an inch long. the lumbricid earthworms were to be found only in certain restricted areas of the planet. higher yields. An interim report released by the World Bank in April says that seven years' poverty reduction has been undone by the past two years of high staple-food prices. and in particular the slippery lumbricid. a yard wide through the middle. In China and India there is ever more — and utterly reasonable — demand for a third meal in the day and more meat in the diet. The World Bank's World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development (http://tinyurl. But the more pressing problem for poor farmers is not the development of new technologies but access to those already there. agriculture expert. In Australia prolonged drought has had a severe effect on wheat production. red. 2. The most common European and American earthworm. One might assume that such cutbacks in research reflected poor results. Britain.htm Only where you find earthworms will you find rich. raising the price of both corn and other cereals that can substitute for it. On 2 April the World Bank announced its intention to double agricultural lending to sub-Saharan Africa over the next year.the Indus. The downslide was most pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa. Plenty of good agricultural science — such as locally adapted seed varieties and soil surveys — sits unused because it has not been delivered in a form adequately tailored to the end users and their limited means. the harvest is not what it might have been. In Better Grassland Sward. much will be channelled through the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa led by Kofi Annan. The causes of these shortages are not easily undone. and there are a lot of poor farmers in the world who could do with such a boost. Agriculture has poverty-busting powers beyond straightforward revenue increases. is not only essential to good agriculture but is the very foundation of all civilization. to point out that the earthworm.

was writing: Worms seem to be the great promoters of vegetation. where the clitter . easily . more easily taken up by plants. sounds produced not by chance but by the deliberate opening and closing of the earthworms' mouths. earthworms can dispose of 90 percent of the fallen leaves. With the undersides of their bodies held firmly together by tiny bristles. Night crawlers. neither too acid nor too alkaline for the growth of plants. or setae. Real organic NPK! What's more. Earthworms are prodigious diggers and earth movers. earthworms consume large amounts of soil. They can squeeze between and push apart the soil crumbs. burrows drain superfluous water. most of all. during the three months of autumn. which help make a crumblike structure of the soil. by actions of enzymes in their digestive tract. That the phenomenon was understood before the time of Christ is clear from Cleopatra's decree that the earthworm be revered and protected by all her subjects as a sacred animal. while it helps a worm worm its way out of a predator's grasp.KY Euphrates. and silt. bits of paper. or more than 5 percent of the total soil volume to plow depth. Not that the point was entirely overlooked by the USDA. Mixed in the crop with digestive chemicals and disintegrator bacteria. each possessing both male and female organs. and. as the French savant Louis Karvran would have it. the elements come out in different combinations. As Tunnels held together by their mucus afford planted roots quicker avenues into the soil. in a shorter time.where crops grew almost without cultivation in a soil of immensely fruitful richness. it also helps hold the soil firm. rendering it pervious to rains and the fibers of plants by drawing straws and stalks of leaves and twigs into it. which is pumped through the bloodstream by five sets of double hearts in rings or segments close to the head . Aristotle called the earthworm "the guts of the soil" because it produces particles that are smaller than when they enter. and can actually sing. and especially raw meat. More surprising still is his report that a German researcher. In the northern part of North America the last ice age so stripped the country bare of earthworms that in very few areas of what is now the United States were agricultural lands rich enough to support even moderately large populations of native American Indians. containing mineral and organic matter in a soluble form. The lush meadows of New England. and farmers were not to trouble the worms for fear of stunting the renowned fertility of the Nilotic valley's soil. By digging into the subsoil. consist of about one-third of the contents of the worm's intestines. By ripping up fine mineral particles and depositing them as castings on or near the surface of the soil. or are they merely collecting. and in the Nile Valley as many as two hundred tons. other areas of the earth offered ideal climates and rich soils. do not dissolve again in water. An agricultural report on investigations carried out in the valley of the Nile in 1949. showed a predilection for celery. Merker. It was estimated that during the six months of active growing season each year the castings of earthworms on these soils amounted to a stunning 120 tons per acre. this mucus helps cement the walls of their tunnels. . once dried. in light sandy soils. and in the root balls of European plants immigrant earthworms arrived to remedy the situation. especially plants that form the basis of our food supply. is strong indication that a complex civilization cannot develop until the basic agricultural needs of its people are met. a supply which must be kept up so long as one wishes to retain the earthworms. How this could be.breathing through the whole surface of their skin. A cleric contemporary of Darwin complained that earthworms are also "much addicted to venery. though congenital scatophages. perforating and loosening the soil. capable of burrowing down as deep as fifteen feet. Muscularly pumping through the soil. which can be found in the soil during the warmer months of winter. . carrot leaves. the worms have an immense impact on the soil. C. Counts of earthworms ran as high as over four million per acre. loosening it. delivering mineral substances that would otherwise remain largely unavailable to most plants." Dr. turning animal manure into sweet-smelling humus. and consequently sterile. But the worms must be fed. usually deposited in old burrows. a red manure worm that inhabits compost heaps. dissolving even tough material such as stems and roots. Eisenia foetida. who reported seeing burrows plugged with twigs. but produced. which being their excrement. As Minnich says: "Before European contact. naturally improving the local pH factor as armies of earthworms work to keep the soil in balance. they constantly adding nutrients to the zone in which plant roots feed. burrowing. forming humus. but generally in series marked by a definity and changing rhythm. held together by the intestinal fluid that makes for a finer-structured earth. and by mixing the two produce a rich humus. And the mucus. the they burrow. no such civilizations." But wedged in the shoes of the colonists' horses were tiny lumbricid egg capsules. earthworms mix and sift the soils. The Egyptian experience alone. night crawlers can spend a goodly portion of their nocturnal activities in the pursuit of sex. producing a nutrient in just the right condition for the plant to absorb.aggregates being the formations of individual particles of sand. feathers. tufts of wool. it looks like a lemon and contains scores of fertilized eggs. and one worm alone can move a stone fifty times its own weight. grows to five inches. the vast farmlands of the upper Midwest. One of the principal functions of the earthworm is to consume available mineral nutrients. An omnivorous and unfinicky eater. In classical Greek times. even an entire night coupled to a willing hermaphroditic mate. neutralized by constant additions of carbonate of lime from three pairs of calciferous glands near the worm's gizzard. but cannot live without copious amounts of decaying organic matter. Henry Hopp of the USDA estimates that one acre of good agricultural land can produce well over five tons of castings in a year. excluding a special mucus from the sexual region to protect the spermatozoa being mutually exchanged. Even when ample organic matter is available.a white band a third of the way down their bodies touches the surface of its mate. feed on leaves. by throwing up such infinite numbers of lumps of earth called worm-casts. Worm castings. slipping the ring off the body. As they burrow. More mucus secreted by the clitellum forms a jellylike ring. and that requires the earthworm. its fertility. which picks up the worm eggs from ovaries and sperm cells from testes. With their mixing. In the process of producing its castings. Earthworms can produce more compost. Darwin. and threading it with tunnels. excellent as both a fertilizer and as a soil conditioner. or horsehair. and humus-making activities. digging. more than three times the maximum populations of the same species in their Old World habitats. Some carry down leaves and other organic matter. and void of fermentation. . the only lumbricids native to the United States were some lacy species of Bismatus and Eisenia. with less effort. while the soil thus treated holds the required moisture. The source of all this fertility was what the worms excreted in the form of castings. claims that worms. and rearranging them to fertilize the soil? The former would appear to be more likely. the eyeless earthworm ingests whatever appears before it in morsels fit for its toothless gums. and have a third more bacteria than the surrounding soil. its texture. and. Yet. Experiments have shown that soils with earthworms drain from four to ten times faster than those without. fertilizing. clay.which shows more wit than the leaf-gathering suburbanite who regularly spends a fortune to deprive the earthworm of his autumnal fare. so named because they creep about at night on the surface of the earth. before the folly of the Aswan Dam. the great wheat fields of Canada are all attributed to the introduction of the earthworm. Under good conditions. Thirty years before the birth of Darwin. to form a tiny yellow cocoon. or by night crawlers on the surface when they come up to mate or draw leaves into their burrows. In no time a rich but dormant soil was transformed into one of high fertility. their faint sound being "rarely in a solo number. are five times as rich in available nitrogen. They Copulate by exchanging sperm cells stored in cuplike hollows in the ninth and tenth segments. Conversely. Egyptians were forbidden to remove it from the land. In an orchard. The earth without worms would soon become cold. Henry Hopp says these materials. says Minnich. earthworms are credited with turning more than fifty tons of soil per acre. which helps them through the roughest ground. grouped into larger units. retaining moisture as it hardens. render them water soluble. Gilbert White. it ingests not only organic matter but the raw earth itself. says Minnich. Continually rubbed off. New Zealand soil scientists observed that European lumbricids were making vigorous inroads into the island's previously wormless soils. essentially worthless as soil builders. perfect in texture. an average red worm can produce from 150 to more than 200 young ones annually. prevents erosion.EARTHWORMS Could it be that these great sinusoid fertilizers actually transmute elements. hard-bound." In suitable weather. earthworms gradually deepen the topsoil layer. compost of the highest grade. PESTICIDES IMPACT. they lie with their heads pointing in opposite directions. distilling. using sand and other mineral particles as grinding stones in its gizzard. others bring nutrients and humus to the top. writing in the 1940's. into a fructifying base. when earthworms have no lungs . wild cherry leaves. and finely ground prior to digestion. they are constantly bathed in mucus. touching in the region of the spermathecal openings. which they drag down into their burrows. and in each handful of that soil are more microorganisms than there are humans on the planet. and even with their pinhead brains they have the wit to pull them by the narrow end . proliferating in direct proportion to the amount of organic matter incorporated into the soil. indicated that the great fertility of the soil was due in large part the work of earthworms. An earthworm is said to produce its own weight in castings each day it is on the prowl. astounded fellow scientists by asserting that earthworms have voices. on even an ordinary agricultural soil. As Jerry Minnich points out in The Earthworm Book. Merker claimed to be able to hear the sounds when within twelve feet of the worms.is all the more amazing. an English naturalist. Castings contain a higher percentage of aggregates than is found in the surrounding soil . as the American colonists were breaking away from the mother country. seven times as rich in available phosphates. and its ability to support everything that lives in or on it. Castings. where water tends to run straight through to the subsoil. including fat. Hill pastures that could barely support a stand of grass were gradually becoming lush and green even though no fertilizer was applied. with more plant nutrients than in the material from which it was derived. and eleven times as rich in available potash as anything else in the upper six inches of the soil. Minnich reports that one Wisconsin commercial raiser of earthworms even chose to feed his charges ice cream as a treat on Saturday nights. moistened to dissolve oxygen. By the early part of the twentieth century. Greatly enlarged. breaking up clods and burying stones. in pelletlike form. the aggregates produced by earthworm castings act to improve the retention of water. And. is a fine manure for grain and grass. and the Nile . the castings are always more acidically neutral than the soil from which they were formed. with the exception of China. than any other method.

animals. and man. has traditionally been negative toward the earthworm. But Minnich complains that with the single exception of Dr. As Voisin points out. Henry Hopp. along with that of many of their associated colleagues in subsidized state universities.KY absorbable by the root hairs of plants. . to be made available in turn to the cells of plants. the attitude of USDA scientists. without earthworms there would be no civilization.

Pesticides are key cause of honeybee deaths Consumer Affairs. if they visit fields and gardens that were recently treated with the chemicals. “Forget Climate Change: The Bees are Buzzing Off. While we panic over oil prices. beekeepers have needed to use some sort of chemical control of these mites. more than three-quarters. For the past decade. June 29. If pesticides used to control mites build up in the wax. And what do you think it might be then?” “Bees sir. That source of exposure has been a concern for beekeepers since pesticides came into wide use in the 1950s. beekeepers have treated their hives with pesticides to combat two kinds of mites that parasitize the bees.” said Sheppard. Varroa mites will kill a colony within two years. Aids? Hands down. Keep this up and you could make a bit of a name for yourself in biology. Honeybee extinction causes human extinction. countless millions of our little friends the honeybees are simply vanishing across the world in an epidemic known as Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) . no more life. weep over polar bears and waste our time nit-picking over the details of scientific evidence for global warming.” Honey bees rear their young in waxy honeycomb which is re-used for several years. According to a small group of experts to whom nobody is listening. it appears that Einstein’s (possibly apocryphal) quote may shortly be put to the test. “Normally. Today were are going to be looking at what may possibly prove to be the greatest threat facing humanity today. The United States. environmental organisations and governments appear not to care particularly either. has now lost at least a quarter of its estimated 2.an affliction which leaves no hives full of sick or dying bees.” “If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe then Man would have only four years of life left.” said Sheppard. Germany. France.es/2008/08/14/forget-climate-change-the-bees-are-buzzing-off/ If bees became extinct today. BOB MADDOX believes we must refocus our attentions and save the humble bumble bee “GOOD morning class.” August 14. Lose the Honeybee . as the World’s media focuses on spiralling food and energy prices.” Well.” when honey bees leave the hive and don’t return. it looks like I am going to have to tell you. a quieter and much deeper threat to our future may be taking shape.theolivepress. it could be just around the corner. still less appear to care and it is largely ignored by environmental organisations and governments worldwide. Few people have heard of it. we have only to look to the horrors of Ethiopia to see what can happen when a food chain collapses.6 million honeybee colonies. over time they could reach a concentration at which they harm the bees as well. OK. we should be in any doubt as to the potential consequences of this. Switzerland .consumeraffairs. shrinking ice-caps and burning forests.KY 2NC Environment Turn---Honeybees Scenario 1. and we’ll be doing some experiments to compare them with combs from healthy colonies. More alarmingly. that is my advice. “Well. Hmm. Now all those who go for bird flu. We’ll have our [healthy] queens laying eggs on both the collapsed colony combs and the control combs at the same time. And lest. no piles of little furry black and yellow bodies to mourn over. Tell us how bees could possibly bring down the human race. Hmm. because Albert is absolutely right! Well done boy. especially on a commercial level. from the cloistered security of our overstocked Saturday supermarket shopping trips. No more bees.” Sheppard said the study should yield information about the potential role of pesticides in causing colony collapse by the end of the year. It is… hold on. no more pollination. he said. And no one knows how or why. Any guesses as to what it might be? Now hands down all those who think it is climate change. stick to what you are good at. http://www. The Olive Press. first question is simple and direct. 2007. more than one-third of everything you and I consume has reached our tables courtesy of a pollinating honeybee. So why are honey bees so important? And why do we take them so much for granted that we appear to be largely ignoring a real threat to their survival as a species? Ignored threat The answer to the Honeybees form a critical part of the human food chain. Walter Sheppard and other researchers at Washington State University say that rather than being driven off by cell phone frequencies – as some have suggested – its more likely that the bees have simply been poisoned. 2. . What’s that you say Albert? Physics? No. the United Kingdom and here in Spain. Sheppard is testing whether something in the honeycomb of a failed colony will carry over and affect the health of a new brood of honey bees. “We’ve gotten some combs that were from colonies that suffered from colony collapse disorder. Sheppard said honey bees could also be exposed to pesticides during their foraging flights.” “OK Albert. The research team has been looking into what has become known as “colony collapse disorder. leaving hives reminiscent of the Marie Celeste. For out there. 2008. Increasingly large numbers of those busy aerial pollinators are leaving for a day in the fields and simply failing to return home from work. no more animals. CCD appears to be going pandemic. Is that one last little hand I see still up over there in the corner? And what is your name then?” “Albert Einstein sir. But the search for a cause is definitely narrowing . As their numbers dwindle. researchers say the reason is most likely overexposure to pesticides. Albert Einstein proclaimed this insect the most important factor in our food chain. http://www. Ebola? An uprising of the undead? George W Bush? Nuclear War? Osama Bin Laden? No more hands left up I see. With honeybees responsible for pollinating 80 per cent of our flowering crops.S. mankind would follow suit in 2012. which is where CCD was first recognised and is assumed to have originated.” “Go on Albert. no more plants. Today.html While a number of theories have been advanced for the recent disappearance of millions of honey bees.com/news04/2007/06/honey_bees. with serious outbreaks reported in Brazil.lose the food chain. Canada. “I don’t think we really know what we’re up against with colony collapse disorder. not too many left now. U. The bees are simple disappearing. “To keep bees. if they’re not treated and the use of these pesticides brings with them a risk of accumulation in the wax.” outburst of sniggering “Quiet! The rest of you can all stop laughing. that has thinned things out a little.

Yes.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829068 Are today’s food prices fair to producers and consumers? Yes. http://www. Yes. 2008. This is already happening in Asia and other parts of the world. August 6. South Asia. “The Proposition's closing statement. land use would shift towards corn-forethanol and other biofuel crops and we would have less food available. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development.com/debate/index. .KY 2NC Environment Turn---XT Link Higher food prices spur investment and research in agriculture Homi Kharas. because without higher food prices. But the last time food prices were as high as they are today we witnessed the Green Revolution and a rapid reduction of rural poverty in one of the largest population centres of the world. because higher food prices will bring about new investments in agriculture and higher global production.” The Economist. because a system with food prices in free fall for 30 years did not produce any measurable decline in hunger and poverty.economist. and will accelerate over time.

2 billion. Continued population and economic growth and expansion of irrigated agriculture over the next 15 years will increasingly stress water resources. Other beneficiaries are in poor countries. In assessing the security situation in the region. this would be an enormous relief to places that have suffered from a relentless decline in their terms of trade." the report said. but its need for oil and desire to balance Arab ties to Pakistan will lead to strengthened ties to Persian Gulf states as well. About a score of countries have imposed food-price controls of some sort. the report said: "Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement. January 22.5 is the mark of a highly unequal society. South Africa and Swaziland will gain from increased export earnings." The agency also states that. And a noticeable increase in the size of India's arsenal would prompt Pakistan to further increase the size of its own arsenal. Given that commodity prices have been falling for so long in real terms. exposing southern Asia to the threat of a nuclear conflict. you would conclude that dearer food was unequivocally a bad thing.” http://www." Pakistan will be more fractious. isolated and dependent on international financial assistance." Since 1998. India and Pakistan are the world's two newest states which openly possess nuclear weapons. United Press International. Both countries tested atomic devices in May 1998. Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. including India. A score of 0. Changing military capabilities will be prominent among the factors that determine the risk of war. In its Global Trends 2015 report. the report said. Dec 6th 2007. the CIA said that "continued turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir and other areas of the subcontinent. divisive politics. The report adds that. including naval and nuclear capabilities and a dynamic and growing economy. the report . urban wages have outstripped rural ones. India and Pakistan have also tested several types of ballistic missiles in their quest to acquire a dependable weapons delivery system. The percentage of urban dwellers will climb steadily from the current 25-30 percent of the population to between 40-50 percent. Income inequality is conventionally measured using a scale running from zero to one called the Gini coefficient. “Cheap no more. Both will continue to build up their nuclear and missile forces. If farm incomes in poor countries are pushed up by higher food prices. "India will look increasingly to the West. the central government's control will probably be reduced to the Punjab heartland and the economic hub of Karachi. that could mitigate the growing gap between city and countryside. "although population growth rates in South Asia will decline. The changing dynamics of state power will combine with other factors to affect the risk of conflict in various regions. "Both India and Pakistan will see weapons of mass destruction as a strategic imperative and will continue to amass nuclear warheads and build a variety of missile delivery systems. High food prices decrease rural-urban income gap in India The Economist.com/displaystory. for example." it said. net farm income this year will be $87 billion. The decisive shift in conventional military power in India's favor over the coming years potentially will make the region more volatile and unstable. But dearer food is not a pure curse: it produces winners as well as losers. which used to export food but no longer do so. have imposed export taxes or limited exports. A dozen countries. the world's biggest agricultural exporter. farmers benefit—if governments allow them to keep the gains. Argentina and Russia have done both.cfm?story_id=10250420 If you took your cue from governments. "India will also continue to build up its ocean-going navy to dominate the Indian Ocean transit routes used for delivery of Persian Gulf oil to Asia. Morocco. leading to continued deterioration in the overall quality of urban life. “CIA warns of nuclear war. In emerging markets an income gap has opened up between cities and countryside over the past few years. who may significantly increase their role in national politics and alter the makeup and cohesion of the military.41 in 1993 to 0. Vietnam." Giving its projections on Pakistan's economic woes. Argentina. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil. which sparks nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan ANWAR IQBAL. "Pakistan's projected growth from 140 million to about 195 million in 2015 will put a major strain on an economy already unable to meet the basic needs of the current population. being wary of China. prompting Indian leaders to take more aggressive preemptive and retaliatory actions. and pollution of surface and groundwater will be a serious challenge. The prairie farmers of the Midwest are looking forward to their Caribbean cruises. the Central Intelligence Agency says that "India most likely will expand the size of its nuclear-capable force. In all these places governments are seeking to shelter their people from food-price rises by price controls. Food exporters such as India. 2001. Serbia and Ukraine. But will it? 2. once Pakistan's most capable institution. India's population alone will grow to more than 1. lawlessness. corruption and ethnic friction. India and Pakistan are both prone to miscalculation.economist. population still will grow by nearly 30 percent by 2015. As countries have diversified away from agriculture into industry and services.47 in 2004. Countries such as Malawi and Zimbabwe. Egypt. "Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists. India's conventional military advantage over Pakistan will widen as a result of New Delhi's superior economic position. that risk will remain fairly high over the next 15 years. Obviously. The Asian Development Bank reckons that China's Gini coefficient rose from 0. "In South Asia." "Water will remain South Asia's most vital and most contested natural resource.” LexisNexis The CIA has warned in a new report that economic disparities and political instability could cause another war between India and Pakistan. The widening India-Pakistan gap. Mexico and China have put restraints on domestic prices. 50% more than the average of the past ten years. will be accompanied by deep political. Differential population growth patterns will exacerbate inequalities in wealth. instability in south Asia. Income inequality causes social unrest. Ties between provincial and central governments throughout the region will be strained. also stand to gain if they can boost their harvests. In America. destabilizing in its own right. beginning a new stage of their nuclear race in one of the world's most-populated regions. economic and social disparities within both states.KY 1NC India Turn 1. The CIA believes that "India will be the unrivalled regional power with a large military.

damage crops and other plants and injure animals. said the damage to the ozone layer would be worse than what has been predicted by "nuclear winter" and "ultraviolet spring" scenarios. animals and people worldwide. "The smoke is the key and it is coming from these firestorms that build up actually several hours after the explosions. "We find column ozone losses in excess of 20 percent globally.it would knock a big hole in the ozone layer.com/dailynewsstory. This would let in enough ultraviolet radiation to cause cancer.cfm/newsid/47829/story. "The big surprise is that this study demonstrates that a small-scale. Indo-Pak war is worse than nuclear winter.destroys the ozone and ends all life on earth Fox.htm) WASHINGTON . affecting crops. We saw these kinds of megafires in World War Two in Dresden and Tokyo. and 50 percent to 70 percent at northern high latitudes persisting for five years. regional nuclear conflict is capable of triggering ozone losses even larger than losses that were predicted following a full-scale nuclear war. damage eyes and skin. water could become a source of renewed friction. Mill noted. with substantial losses continuing for five additional years. for example. each with the power of the weapon the United States used to destroy Hiroshima in 1945. and forest fires are not big or hot enough. and heat from the sun would carry these blackened particles into the stratosphere. 25 percent to 45 percent at midlatitudes.planetark." 3." Mills said in a telephone interview. per capita water availability is likely to drop by 50-75 percent. Mills and colleagues based their computer model on other research on how much fire would be produced by a regional nuclear conflict.KY said." Nothing natural could create this much black smoke in the same way. Volcanic ash. The University of Colorado's Brian Toon. who also worked on the study. the team at the University of Colorado reported. "In India. and land degradation in Bangladesh. . The difference is we are talking about a large number of cities that would be bombed within a few days. ‘8 (Maggie. and Pakistan and India are believed to have at least 50 weapons apiece. US researchers said on Monday." he said. dust and smoke is of a different nature. Mills said the study added a new factor to the worries about what might damage the world's ozone layer." Toon said in a statement. SMOKE IS KEY Eight nations are known to have nuclear weapons." said Michael Mills of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. This could be typical of what you might see. "The sunlight really heats it up and sends it up to the top of the stratosphere. Up there. "We are talking about modern megacities that have a lot of material in them that would burn. flooding. Reuters News. the soot would absorb radiation from the sun and heat surrounding gases." Mills' team wrote in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. causing chemical reactions that break down ozone. Fires from burning cities would send 5 million metric tonnes of soot or more into the lowest part of Earth's atmosphere known as the troposphere. as well as to research about the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange.Nuclear war between India and Pakistan would cause more than slaughter and destruction -. April 8. Because many of the region's waterways are interstate. "Certainly there is a growing number of large nuclear-armed states that have a growing number of weapons. Deforestation in India and Nepal will exacerbate pollution. who chose India and Pakistan as one of several possible examples. “India-Pakistan Nuclear War Would Cause Ozone Hole” http://www.

Both the agriculture and manufacturing sectors have been hit by slowdowns while industrial output actually contracted. The resulting fall-off in business investment is a major contributor to the current malaise. For a country of India’s size and diversity. will drive the economy and buffer it from the external shocks to which most other emerging markets are prone. India should not be measured merely in terms of short-term growth. but only if a new wave of reforms provides them with the necessary skills and opportunities. The biggest worry is a deficit in governance. Decision-making has ground to a halt as ministers look over their shoulders. Democracy is one of India’s greatest strengths. This disparity together with an increasing willingness to vote across caste and religious lines has resulted in the ouster of some non-performing state administrations and improved the performance of others. This will generate a surge in infrastructure building ($1 trillion over the next five years). even those with reputedly close links to government. despite the economic malaise and current political paralysis. Indian democracy is slow moving and uneven. India’s long term prospects are undiminished. it is often quickly reversed in the face of heated opposition. Its young. India’s rapidly growing middle class will exceed 500 million people . The current account is also worsening. along with changing tastes and consumption patterns. High food prices reduce Indian poverty. but it will happen. Senior Associate and Director.a reduction now would hurt the Indian economy Sandra Polaski. Within the next decade. Weakness at the centre has emboldened other states to flaunt their powers in areas affecting their interests. have been unable to secure approvals for major investment projects. http://www. regulatory uncertainty and increasing tension between corporate India and the government. fifty-four percent of the world’s poor live in India and China and thus the response of poverty in these two countries is an important component in assessing how changes in food prices will affect global poverty. Equity and Development Program. current account and governance. bloated by costly subsidies and generous welfare schemes while proposed tax reforms that would raise revenues are stalled. that can be sold in large volume locally and later adapted for sale globally. The “bottom of the pyramid” will not be left behind. On the rare occasion that a new policy is announced. Although exports have grown this past year. the country with the largest number of poor in the world. and the Doha Round. India suffers from three deficits: fiscal. Within the Congress Party-led coalition there are divisions inside the Party itself and between coalition members. Poverty. 6. discourage investment and constrain growth. Formerly backward states such as Bihar and Orissa now exceed the national growth rate. it has not been enough to offset costly imports of energy and other commodities.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. India is also the world’s largest federation. low-income products such as the Tata Nano city car. India is the world’s largest democracy and arguably the most rambunctious. 2012. A recent study by the Carnegie Endowment probed the effect of food price changes in India. Has India’s bubble burst? Hopefully yes in the positive sense that inflated projections of future growth will be replaced by more realistic expectations. By 2025. “India's slowing growth not a worry in the long run”. The rural-urban income gap continues to decline. where over eighty percent of the population live on less than $2 per day. http://www. fearful of intense public scrutiny and a zealous media.canadianbusiness. It is a long-term value investment . A prominent and potentially damaging example is the retroactive tax on foreign investors introduced ostensibly to nullify the impact of a Supreme Court judgement in favour of Vodafone. it is the only feasible system of government. Standard & Poor has warned that India could lose its investment grade rating and be downgraded to junk category if the situation doesn’t improve.KY 2NC India Turn---Econ Scenario India’s economy is on the rise and the income gap is declining Peter Sutherland 6/22 is the Vice-Chairman of the Canada-India Business Council and Senior Business Advisor. but net financial flows have slowed and will likley decline further if the economy continues to struggle. A series of high-profile scandals has implicated several ministers and further debilitated the government. “it may not be perfect. boost productivity as workers leave the less productive rural sector. Foreigners continue to invest in India. During the first three months of this year India’s economy grew 5. MAY 2008. Aird & Berlis LLP. 7 Using a general equilibrium . For an economy roughly the size of Canada’s. The resulting jump in discretionary spending. Inflation hovers over 7 per cent and the rupee has sunk to record lows against the dollar. Yet. but it is the best system available”. For these reasons projections that India will rank among the top three global economies are still credible. Such flip flops and the absence of needed reforms undermine business confidence. This is especially true for democracies whose leaders are subject to re-election and usually eschew unpalatable economic reforms. It may take longer than some people predicted. Trade. but the eurozone crisis will not.3 per cent. A large trade deficit combined with slowing capital inflows is expected to push the current account deficit above 4 per cent of GDP this year. By some estimates. and consequently faster growing. The fundamentals that have underpinned over 7 percent average growth during the past decade are still intact. To paraphrase Churchill. Rural India now accounts for close to half of GDP and will continues to spur innovative.5 percent growth expected this year isn’t shabby . Asia. than others. another 130 million Indians will migrate to the cities. straight-line growth. The reformist instincts of Prime Minister Singh have been thwarted by the populist leanings of Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi and by regional partners such as Mamata Bannerjee in West Bengal. The budget deficit has widened. India will account for the largest share of global consumption by 2030. ambitious and enterprising workforce has the potential to generate enough savings and investment to propel the country to among the top three global economies by 2030. For the same reason large corporate groups. A weaker rupee may help exports.org/files/polaski__food_prices. He was previously Canada's High Commissioner to India as well as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the Philippines.carnegieendowment. “Rising Food Prices.pdf Overall. but ultimately rewarding for committed and patient investors. Its 29 states have considerable autonomy in economic matters which explains why some are more business friendly. but it expresses the popular will and therefore mitigates political risk. Very few major economies have enjoyed continuous. and foster social integration in urban melting pots. India is the second most populous country in the world with a median age of 26. Foreign and domestic investors alike are deterred by proposed tax changes. subject to ups and downs. the slowest rate in almost a decade and sharply down from 9 per cent last year.com/article/88678--india-s-slowing-growth-not-a-worry-in-the-long-run Clearly the bloom is off the rose.

by almost twelve percent in the case of a fifty percent decline.” “scheduled castes. Yet. Declines in the world price of rice would have negative effects on all major components of the Indian economy. almost by default. with the poorest households and disadvantaged groups in rural areas losing the most (Figure 5). Illiterate urban workers from all disadvantaged groups would see their incomes rise. India is increasingly making use of a plethora of bilateral and multilateral channels to ease tension and is far better positioned than it was during the Cold War to work towards this end with other great powers including the United States and China. overtly hostile. while the results for other urban workers showed a mix of small gains and small losses with no consistent pattern. but also with Europe. India's foreign policy has undergone a profound transformation since 1991 that has more or less paralleled its economic transition. Income increased for rural workers at all education levels and for both men and women. its special relationship with Russia and its role in the non-aligned movement. Only the richest ten percent of rural households would lose from a price increase. A changing global order and rapid Indian growth have fostered conditions for India to redefine its place in the region and in the world. government spending.nato-pa. Displaced rural laborfers would spill over into urban unskilled labor markets. INDIAN GROWTH KEY TO PREVENT MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FOR REGIONAL ESCALATION NATO Parliamentary Assembly – ‘8 The Rise of the Indian Economy: Transatlantic and Global Implications. either driving down wages or increasing unemployment. and this. The overall effect of a decline in wheat prices could be to increase poverty. Seventy-eight percent of households would experience real income losses and the distributional impact would be regressive. investment. Pakistan. the largest gainers were illiterate workers and disadvantaged groups. Indian relations with the United States. and reduce overall demand for labor in the agricultural sector. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of linkages between rural and urban labor markets is necessary to understand the impact of agricultural prices on the poor. We conducted a similar exercise for increases and decreases in wheat prices. and the apparent failure of Soviet-style economic planning all compelled Indian leaders to revamp the country's international posture. Real income would fall for all rural households except the richest ten percent. The detailed household data we used included information on vulnerable social groups (defined in the Indian constitution as “scheduled tribes. China and Russia have evolved substantially over the last decade. we found that an increase in the price of rice would benefit most poor households (Figure 4). India comes to the diplomatic table buoyed by its ever more formidable economic presence. the end of Cold War rivalry. Afghanistan's ongoing crisis. No longer mired in economic stasis. The collapse of the Soviet Union. The impact on urban households was more varied. The lowest income brackets of disadvantaged groups experience small income losses. The drop in rice prices would reduce demand for unskilled labor in rice production sharply. That this wealth is being generated in the world economy is consequential. Most urban households would feel little impact from the price declines. The results showed similar patterns but with more muted effects. as 92 million rural households in the bottom six deciles of income would experience some real income loss. including private consumption. This alone endows it with a kind of weight that demands other great powers pay it close attention.” and “other backward classes”). exports.asp?SHORTCUT=1472 44. Pakistan's domestic turmoil and its historic rivalry with India. the rise of religious extremism in the region. We found that labor markets played a largely positive role in transmitting price effects. The poorest households and the most disadvantaged groups saw the largest gains (up to six percent increase in income from a fifty percent increase in the price of rice). while only 32 million urban households in the same deciles would experience income gains. imports. and tensions in Nepal are all flash points with varying implications for Indian security. India now holds a greater stake in the global trading and financial systems. 45.KY model to simulate the impact of different prices. India's relations with the United States and Europe were not well developed in the post-war period.int/Default. partly due to its inward looking development strategy. India's relations with China and Pakistan were also tense and. India began to buy into the economic principles for which the West stood. at times. and total domestic production (Table 1). with some poor households gaining slightly and others losing slightly. pointed a way toward improved relations with the United States in particular. its socialist economic organization. civil war in Sri Lanka. http://www. India clearly has welcomed the international community's efforts to help ease tensions in its immediate neighbourhood. particularly over Kashmir. .

a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary.KY 2NC India Turn---XT Impact Indo-Pak war escalates to nuclear conflict Washington Times 2001 Ghulam Nabi Fai. the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. B4 The foreign policy of the United States in South Asia should move from the lackadaisical and distant (with India crowned with a unilateral veto power) to aggressive involvement at the vortex. The director of central intelligence. or indicated an inclination to ratify an impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention. July 8. executive director of the Kashmiri American Council. Neither country has initialed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This apocalyptic vision is no idiosyncratic view. Their defense budgets are climbing despite widespread misery amongst their populations. The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir. 2001. and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. . the Defense Department. It has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965. and world experts generally place Kashmir at the peak of their nuclear worries. p. Both India and Pakistan are racing like thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery vehicles. The Washington Times.

http://www. for instance." says Gustafson.com/debate/index. But in rural areas. rural poverty will decline. surprise . high food prices will increase poverty by 1.5 percentage points. which they probably will. . especially in Asia. On balance.economist. China and Indonesia. She has used an econometric model to estimate the impact of high wheat and rice prices on poverty. High prices benefit farmers but hit consumers. Aug 24. Consider India. 2008.surprise.6 percentage points among farmers. we could see some of these people returning to what now may be a better option. "We could see some significant increases in Indian cereal production.8 percentage points. India. “Can high food prices win votes?” The Times of India. solving rural poverty and income gap Homi Kharas.org/pubs/newsletters/ifpriforum/if200803. financially unsustainable. There are other areas where people have left the farm. so if high prices prevail. Rural areas will have losers as well as winners. International Food Policy Research Institute. In urban areas. he says. so future large harvests may not represent large increases over past production. and so will national poverty. 2008. to persuade it to reform its agricultural pricing system and provide new opportunities for its desperate farmers. the national impact turns out to be poverty reduction of 0. According to the ADB.” Higher world food prices might be just the push needed by India. The FAO's Daniel Gustafson sees evidence that certain countries will significantly raise agricultural production. The net outcome .asp High food prices should present a golden opportunity for poor farmers to ramp up production and increase their profits. July 29. research fellow at the Cato Institute. High food prices prompt the Indian government to reform ag policy.cms However. especially landless labourers. But some countries behave differently.6 percentage points. South Africa is expected to increase its planted area by 8 percent. have been producing record harvests in recent years anyway. this has led to a system which is “unproductive. and farmers in Malawi and Zambia are likely to increase their production owing to subsidized input programs in those countries.9 percentage points.indiatimes. March 2008.com/Opinion/Columnists/Can_high_food_prices_win_votes/articleshow/3397897.is a decline in the poverty ratio by 0.KY 2NC India Turn---XT Link Higher food prices decrease rural poverty in India Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. leaving land fallow. along with many other countries. Since 70% of the country is rural. But they will also cut poverty by 4. High food prices boost rural farmer’s incomes in India Heidi Fritschel. which has a long history of subsidising agricultural input and output prices. has increased its investment in agriculture in its 2008-09 budget and has raised prices for farmers. national agricultural pricing policies and the remoteness of some rural areas often prevent world prices from reaching domestic markets. http://timesofindia. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. “The Proposition's opening statement” The Economist.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829062 The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just completed a study including the three countries with the largest rural populations in the world: India. poverty will fall 1. Cristina Savescu of World Bank provides another viewpoint. “What Goes Down Must Come Up: Global Food Prices Reach New Heights. and there are many parts of India where even if the local rise in prices doesn't match international ones.” http://www. while protecting its consumers from high price increases. there could still be a big jump. according to her projections." Still. and thus farmers may not have as much incentive to boost production as world price increases may imply. … (it) also accentuates inequality among rural Indian states. Costlier foodgrains will tend to worsen the poverty of rural consumers by 2.8 percentage points. or some members of the family have left the farm.ifpri. A number of countries. "The price rise really is quite dramatic. and environmentally destructive.

the Indian Prime Minister.KY 2NC India Turn---XT I/L Indian income gap creates social unrest Jeremy Page." Mr Singh. industry needs to be moderate in the emolument levels its adopts. has long been calling for more inclusive economic growth. if not matched by a corresponding rise of incomes across the nation. limit their profits. “Stop showing off wealth. ." he told the opening of the annual conference of the Confederation of Indian Industry on Thursday. eschew lavish weddings and shun "wasteful" Western lifestyles. striking a distinctly Gandhian -if not overtly socialist tone. The Times (London).” LexisNexis Manmohan Singh. But this time he went farther than ever in dressing down India's business elite. "In a country with extreme poverty. has stunned business leaders by telling them to pay themselves less. tycoons are told. who unleashed India's current economic boom when he introduced market reforms as Finance Minister in 1991. "Rising income and wealth inequalities. 2007. Mr Singh warned an audience including some of India's richest tycoons that they could face severe social unrest if they did not curb their spending and do more to bridge the country's yawning income gap. can lead to social unrest. May 26.

Foodgrain production is a record 230. from high employment.3 million tonnes and 208. Wheat production has risen from 69. by rising prices and falling employment. What's new about 2007-08 is that this is the first time that food prices have shot up despite a record harvest. Labourers have gained too.indiatimes. But news reports highlight labour scarcity and rising wages in Punjab-Haryana.cms Critics will ask. So. even as the procurement price has risen almost 50%. why did they cause such savage impoverishment in past inflations? The answer is that 2008 is truly different. So. http://timesofindia. 2008. Through history. So. and the resulting scarcity raised prices. A few lucky farmers benefiting from decent rain gained from high prices. and the increased farmer spending produces a second round of increased demand for labour. This was a recipe for impoverishment. high food prices in India were caused by droughts. Falling farm incomes translated into falling demand for other kinds of labour. Aug 24. The employment guarantee scheme has provided a separate boost to wages. if rising food prices can cut poverty today. farmers have reaped a double bonanza. distress was acute among farmers no less than labourers.6 million tonnes respectively in the previous two years. Farmers suffered too. research fellow at the Cato Institute.7 million tonnes. A smaller crop meant less labour was used for harvesting and post-harvest operations. . Bumper crops increase the demand for labour in harvesting and post-harvest operations.4 million tonnes to 79 million tonnes over the last two years. “Can high food prices win votes?” The Times of India.com/Opinion/Columnists/Can_high_food_prices_win_votes/articleshow/3397897. Production fell sharply. up from 217. Droughts greatly reduced employment. We won't get official wage data for a long time.KY 2NC India Turn---AT Poverty Turn High prices have only caused poverty during bad harvests Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. but drought wiped out millions of others. labourers were hit twice over. from higher production and higher prices.

Chari is a research professor at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi and a former member of the Indian Administrative Service.21 billion people live on less than $1. global war on terrorism has also increased the cost for Pakistan of indulging in provocative behavior. Pakistan has also realized the dangerous implications of supporting militancy. For similar reasons.uk/news/world-asia-india-16064321 Inequality in earnings has doubled in India over the past two decades. extending a “hand of friendship” to Pakistan. Indonesia and. especially Islamic militants and jihadi groups.bbc. Recently. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says the top 10% of wage-earners make 12 times more than the bottom 10%. says.S. 2003. China. Pakistan’s readiness to support militancy has also diminished since Pakistan itself has become the target of Islamic jihadists and has experienced terrorist attacks throughout the country. the report says. On Pakistan’s part. the Russian Federation and South Africa have all become less equal over time. R. D. it said. discouraging their citizens from visiting India. India accepted his offer and suggested its extension to Siachen. says OECD” http://www. India’s longstanding policy of shunning international mediation and insisting on strict bilateralism in its dealings with Pakistan has been diluted considerably . it was Pakistani-backed militants who attacked the Indian Parliament on December 13. the ratio between the top and the bottom wage-earners has doubled since the early 1990s. and the U.co. The OECD says India has the highest number of poor in the world. triggering the border confrontation. This transformation in India-Pakistan relations can be traced back to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s statement in the symbolically significant venue of Srinagar— the summer capital of J&K—on April 18. an undemarcated region north of but adjacent to the . The acquisition of nuclear weapons has highlighted the grave risks of trying to alter the status quo by military means. global response to the attacks of September 11. both India and Pakistan have realized that they have no alternative but to enter into a peace process. as occurred during the 2001–02 border confrontation crisis when “travel advisories” were issued by the United States and several other developed countries. 2001. **Hasan Askari Rizvi is an independent political and defense consultant in Pakistan and is currently a visiting professor with the South Asia Program of the School of Advanced International Studies." In India.. Further. India has also not fared well in poverty reduction. 2001. Subtle changes in their positions have stimulated creative ideas for managing the conflict. The last two of these developments have led India and Pakistan to realize that a military victory over the other is not possible. a nuclear conflict is unthinkable. The United States has now established a physical presence in Pakistan to pursue its “war on terror” in Afghanistan. created a global consensus for controlling transnational terrorism. making it one of the worst performers among emerging economies . the rise of China and its support for the peace process between India and Pakistan. among them the end of the Cold War. The new government in Pakistan has declared that it wishes to take the peace process forward. even suggested freezing the Kashmir issue. During the Kargil conflict neither country could extend its theater of operations because of fears that the conflict might become nuclearized. which inhibits hostilities being initiated by either India or Pakistan. they realize there is no “winning” – mutually assured destruction AND international sanctions. Johns Hopkins University. compared to six times 20 years ago.usip.KY 2AC India Turn Income inequality high now BBC News 11 “India income inequality doubles in 20 years. and any forcible alteration of status quo would be unacceptable to the international community. in November 2003. Zafarullah Khan Jamali. Several developments have contributed to this attitudinal shift.pdf The Kashmir dispute has reached an impasse. Neither side will start a war. without officially abandoning them.org/files/resources/sr210. Unable to impose their preferred solution.25 a day. as against the official Indian figure of 37%. In cities.S. India was deterred from attacking Pakistan during the border confrontation in 2001–02. The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Any attempt by either country to improve its ground situation in Kashmir would be frowned upon by the international community and might prompt economic repercussions . although he later had to backtrack on that proposal. as illustrated during the Kargil conflict of 1999 and the 2001–02 border confrontation. education and health" in villages. Indeed. A World Bank report in May said attempts by the Indian government to combat poverty were not working . individual earnings of 32 rupees a day (66 US cents) were adequate. Pakistan has since found it difficult to support the jihadi Islamic groups in J&K. cochairman of the Pakistan People’s Party. on some indicators. former President Pervez Musharraf abandoned his country’s traditional position of insisting on implementing the UN resolutions on Kashmir. India has discarded its traditional stand that the whole of Kashmir belongs to India and has shown signs of departing from its stated policy of negotiating with Pakistan only after cross-border terrorism ceases. Given that a major conventional conflict is dangerous. the spread of globalization and its implications for international security. entitled Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising. the nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan in May 1998 that consolidated a nuclear deterrent relationship. the Indian government was criticised for saying that an individual income of 25 rupees (52 US cents) a day would help provide for adequate "private expenditure on food. Some 42% of its 1. 1 A cease-fire along the LOC was suggested by Pakistan’s prime minister.C. both India and Pakistan have become flexible regarding their traditional positions on Kashmir . Furthermore. the report says. Chari and Rizvi 8 *P. Many experts said the income limit to define the poor was too low and aimed at artificially reducing the number of people below the poverty line. 2001." the report. Poverty line "Brazil. Asif Zardari. the passage of a 2007 law in the United States has linked American military and economic assistance to Pakistan to its performance in stopping cross-border terrorism. the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the current resurgence of Russia. India. The Parisbased OECD is a grouping of 34 advanced and emerging economies. It says 42% of Indians live below the poverty line. “Making Borders irrelevant in Kashmir” http://www. The U. Argentina have recorded significant progress in reducing inequality over the past 20 years. on September 11. a new report says. internal economic pressures. "By contrast.

greatly improving the safety of people living along the border. On November 26. .KY LOC. though slow. with significant improvements occurring in cross-border communications and the movement of people and goods. the cease-fire went into effect. has made steady progress. The resulting peace process.

the semi-official Press Trust of India quoted a former Indian Army general as saying on Monday. including five terrorists. Alabama. Deterrence solves Peoples Daily 9 “Ex-Indian general: Pakistan nuclear weapons prevent India from retaliatory attacks twice”. India’s response to the 26–29 November 200 Mumbai terrorist attack is a good example of the moderating effect nuclear weapons have on the behavior of nuclear-armed adversaries. neither country is willing to take such a risk. Maxwell AFB. in which at least 173 people were killed and over 300 wounded. The Logic of the Nuclear Arsenal. the Second Kashmir War (1965). . 3/9/09. The 2001 Indian Parliament attack was a high-profile attack by militants belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed groups against the building housing the Parliament of India in New Delhi. according to the report. six Indian policemen and one civilian.html Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons prevented India from attacking it twice. http://www. If this were not the case. the probability of a conventional conflict between the United States and the USSR would likely have been much higher had both sides not possessed nuclear weapons. While India would likely win a conventional war with Pakistan.pdf Conventional and nuclear weapons are different—very different. faculty researcher and defense analyst at the Air Force Research Institute. Lashkar-e-Taiba’s attack left 172 innocent civilians dead and placed the Indian government under great pressure to respond with force. and the Indo-Pakistani War (1971). Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Winter 2009.peopledaily. yet Prime Minister Singh has shown tremendous restraint that can be attributed to the fear of a conventional conflict escalating to nuclear war.dtic. He also told the seminar .19 These two rivals are not the only examples of the moderating influence of nuclear weapons . It also led to tensions between India and Pakistan and the 2001-2002 India-Pakistan standoff.cn/90001/90777/90851/6610093. While it is only possible to speculate. why is 9 August 1945 the last time that a nuclear weapon was used in war? The same cannot be said of conventional weapons.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA511235&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.com. http://english. along with numerous artillery exchanges in Kashmir over the decades. one after the Mumbai attacks last November and the 2001 terrorist attack on Indian Parliament. Former Indian Army chief Gen. The Cold War provides the single best example of nuclear weapons preventing conventional conflict among great-power rivals. India also blames the same militant groups for staging the Mumbai attacks.KY 1AR India Turn---XT No War MAD checks Indo-Pak escalation Lowther 9 Adam. said the report. Prior to developing nuclear weapons. rarely did a year go by during the Cold War that US troops were not engaged in a conventional conflict. India and Pakistan fought one another in the First Kashmir War (1947). Shankar Roychowdhury told a seminar in New Delhi that Pakistan's nuclear weapons deterred India from attacking that country after the Mumbai strikes.1 The same is true of the post–Cold War period. The attack led to the death of a dozen people. As Ellen Collier of the Congressional Research Service illustrated in 1993. entitled "Nuclear Risk Reduction and Conflict Resolve" that it was due to Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons that India stopped short of a military retaliation following the attack on Parliament in 2001.

conflict. he is strengthening economic ties in the region in a bid to limit U. Now. government. “Chavez Builds His Sphere Of Influence. two months after winning reelection and consolidating his hold on the country with new powers to rule by decree.” “nationbuilding. a highway and an oil refinery in Nicaragua. Chavez’s aid pushes out US influence in the region Juan Forero and Peter S.mil/pdffiles/PUB628. the investments signify an effort by Venezuela to curb the reach of the U. and Asymmetric Warfare” www. Venezuelan inflation reached an annualized rate of 31.S.so much so that Chavez recently threatened to nationalize grocery stores if they did not limit price increases. ‘5 (Max. President Daniel Ortega." Exploding food and fuel prices have reignited overall inflation throughout Latin America. along with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. the global community increasingly is being asked . Less than a decade ago. the corollary at this level must address questions associated with “peacekeeping. But some private-sector analysts say the government is manipulating the data.pdf) At the same time. "I've said it before -. “Chavez Builds His Sphere Of Influence.” The implications are straightforward. energy and other raw materials. The central bank adds a quarter-point to its benchmark despite the government's move to freeze food prices. Mexico's inflation is modest in comparison.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/22/AR2007022201875_pf. and individual national powers. Goodman.html The question now is how long Venezuela can maintain the aid.html CARACAS. In the contemporary security environment.4% in May. The central banks of Chile and Brazil have likewise raised rates in recent weeks because of inflation concerns. Farther south. Chavez recently announced that his government would build housing. part of an aid package that would benefit one of Washington's most tenacious Cold War adversaries. Venezuela President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has long pledged to buck Washington-backed economic policies in Latin America. which press governments to limit spending. Bolivarian Socialism. Washington Post Foreign Service. Although the economy is growing thanks to high oil prices. Consumer prices in Argentina were up 9. the goal is nothing less than to kill the so-called Washington consensus." the bank said in a statement.” and “state failure." said Teodoro Petkoff. President Chávez’s approach to Latin American security and stability requires a realignment from capitalist and “neo-liberal” economics and politics to his socialism for the 21st century. Taken together. according to official estimates.S. 2007. http://www. Thus. "I don't know if Venezuela can simultaneously sustain internal spending and external spending at the level it has until now. a former leftist guerrilla and a Chavez opponent who runs a newspaper in Caracas.1% last month. Chavez has announced a $2 billion international investment fund for Latin America. 2007. High inflation will prevent Chavez from maintaining aid to other countries in Latin America Juan Forero and Peter S. General Douglas MacArthur Chair and Professor of Military Strategy at the U. a gesture that would soften the blow if that country's leftist government follows through on its threat to default on foreign debt payments. For Chavez.” Washington Post. and probably exacerbate the processes of state failure in important parts of the hemisphere. whose influence has waned in Latin America. “ Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. “Rising costs push Mexico to hike rates. 2008 Los Angeles Times. Venezuela has pledged to provide Ecuador with $1 billion in credit. Likewise. a foe of the Bush administration. the economic prescriptions championed by the International Monetary Fund and the U. Goodman. Washington Post Foreign Service. And. June 21. 2. Treasury. inflation is skyrocketing -.this year. They estimate that Argentina's real inflation rate is running above 20%.” “stability operations. February 23.S.washingtonpost. economists and others who track the country's affairs say. influence.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/22/AR2007022201875_pf.” Washington Post.KY 1NC Venezuela Turn 1. increasingly are being called on to respond to conflict generated by all kinds of material instabilities and human destabilizers. And." 3. But the central bank has been hawkish in combating it.strategicstudiesinstitute. 4. http://www. international organizations such as the UN and the OAS. the economy is going to begin to cost Chavez.washingtonpost. High food prices cause inflation in Venezuela Marla Dickerson. raise interest rates and open their economies to foreign trade and investment. true to the predictions of economists who are skeptical of the Chavez model. it has little private investment and creates few new jobs. That realignment will likely generate instability.S. Staff Writer-LA Times. Army War College and Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College. February 23.” LexisNexis "The recent dynamic of inflation is worrying.army. "World inflationary pressures have intensified due to strong price increases in food. Failure of Latin American liberal democracy allows Chavez to spread his socialist agenda causing multiple scenarios for extinction Manwaring. the Mexican economy was pummeled by inflation that approached 20%. October.

criminality. these actions are usually unconfined and spill over into regional syndromes of poverty. rogue states. It is a great deal more. and prosperity. it may be a zerosum game in which only one winner emerges or. everything. In that context. this will cause the enemy nation to fall into social panic. Some Final Thoughts On Chávez’s Asymmetrical Conflict As A Challenge To Hemispheric Security Chávez may be a military caudillo. First. of course. and prosperity that has been achieved. the longer dysfunctional.56 The questions associated with the corollaries and implications of each of the above levels of analysis. all of the above types of threats are seen as methods of choice—or areas for exploitation—for various commercial (narco-traffickers and organized criminals). these conditions spawn all kinds of things people in general do not like such as murder. criminal states. but he is no “nut case. in fact. or a mix of everything within a state’s or a coalition of states’ array of instruments of power. disease. in addition to helping to provide wider latitude to further their tactical and operational objectives. Chávez finds that it is more useful to think of them as parts within his concept of total war. More specifically. Finally.64 But failing and failed states simply do not go away. and thus to “destroy in order to rebuild” in true revolutionary fashion. These are the bases of power—all else. real threats to effective sovereignty exist. Chávez understands the centrality of relative moral legitimacy in conflict— and the critical importance of creating popular perceptions that his cause is morally correct. in a worst-case scenario. to him. narco-states. He also understands the value of facilitating the processes of state failure to achieve the objectives of bolivarianismo. as well as balance of Second. ethnic cleansing. financial transaction network. buries a computer virus and hacker detachment in the opponent’s computer system in advance. while at the same time carrying out a network attack against the enemy so that the civilian electricity network.58 As a consequence. telephone communications network. and social injustice fairly and effectively. trafficking and proliferation of conventional weapons systems and WMD. Chávez’s intent is to focus his primary attack politically and psychologically on selected Latin American governments’ ability and right to govern. The tendency is that the best motivated and best armed organization on the scene will control that instability. and conflict. Fourth Generation War and Asymmetric War” in 2004) to develop a doctrinal paradigm change from conventional to people’s war. it is important to remember that state failure is a process.60 Chávez understands all this. thus. Rather. one can rest assured that Chávez and his Bolivarian populist allies will be available to provide money. and will lead to a better life. rather than considering each level of conflict as an independent form of warfare. insurgency. two Chinese colonels. state and nonstate actors’ strategic efforts are aimed at progressively lessening a targeted regime’s credibility and capability in terms of its ability and willingness to govern and develop its national territory and society. This caudillo will tailor his campaign to his adversaries’ political and economic vulnerabilities. intimidation. it may be military or nonmilitary. and other “root causes” of conflict. trafficking in women and body parts. economic. regional conflict. stemming from chronic poverty. and terrorism. and place the posterity of the hemisphere at serious risk. disenfranchisement. corruption. ideological (insurgencies such as Peru’s Sendero Luminoso) movements.59 To give the mind as much room as possible to contemplate the sophistication and complexity—and the totality—of contemporary conflict.S. These threats include. Chávez understands that every player in the international community from small powers to the U. In connection with the creation of new people’s democracies. and launches a sneak attack against its financial markets. Thus.KY to respond to failing and failed states. destabilization. or a super insurgency. poverty. or some form of ideological crusade such as Bolivarianismo.61 The Issue of State Failure. failing and failed states become dysfunctional states. warlordism. traditional and lingering boundary and territorial disputes. These means of coercion and persuasion can spawn further human rights violations. it is important to understand that Chávez considers three issues to be key to success (or failure) in contemporary asymmetric conflict. instability and the threat of subverting or destroying such a government are real. narco-trafficking. or new people’s democracies. urban criminal gangs. to facilitate the processes of state failure. traffic dispatching network. thus. he understands that popular perceptions of corruption. At the same time. In these terms. social programs. and caudillos like Chávez who are completely and ruthlessly dedicated to achieving control or radical change in a given nation-state. There is finally the forceful bearing down by the army.63 Thus. if the United States and the other countries of the Americas ignore what is happening in the region. poverty. the associated question is “How should the processes of state failure be addressed before they run their courses and achieve conflict and/or crisis proportions?” Conclusions from the Four Levels of Analysis. rogue. lethal or nonlethal. And. the more they and their associated problems endanger global security. is illusion. Chávez understands that contemporary nontraditional war is not a kind of appendage (a lesser or limited thing) to the more comfortable conventional military attrition and maneuver warfare paradigms. then after causing a financial crisis. it appears that this astute warrior is prepared to destabilize. street riots. and everywhere. destabilizing nontraditional internal public and personal security threats can been seen all over the hemisphere in ungoverned territories. a people’s war. These conditions breed massive humanitarian disasters and major refugee flows. superpower must cope simultaneously with four separate and potentially grave types of contemporary threat. and insurgency. free market economies. torture. peace. power concerns. Liang and Xiangsui.”57 He will not even attempt to defeat his enemies on their terms. more conventional terrorism. The Sophistication and Complexity of War as a Whole. and destruction of infrastructure. and to their psychological precepts. all means that can be brought to bear on a given situation must be used to compel a targeted government to do one’s will. each protagonist must deal with the very real possibility that transnational and internal nonstate actors can be used by one nation-state to play serious roles in destabilizing and taking down another. and a political crisis. he understands the sophistication and complexity of war as a whole. and communications efforts. he will seek to shift the playing field away from conventional military confrontations and turn to nontraditional forms of assault on a nation’s stability and integrity. At the same time. However. what Ralph Peters calls a “wise competitor. kidnapping.62 Peru’s Sendero Luminoso calls violent and destructive activities that facilitate the processes of state failure “armed propaganda. and lack of upward mobility limit the right and the ability of a given regime to conduct the business of the state. and narco-states and people’s democracies persist. The argument in general is that failing and failed state status is the breeding ground for instability. Additionally. have provided a scenario that is instructive and sobering: If the attacking side secretly musters large amounts of capital without the enemy nation being aware of this. Nevertheless.” He is. In either case. imply no easy set of tasks. Until a given populace generally perceives that its government is dealing with these and other basic issues of political.” Drug cartels operating throughout the Andean Ridge of South America and elsewhere call these activities “business incentives. no winner. criminal. Virtually anyone can take advantage of such an unstable situation. starvation. that inaction could destroy the democracy. and leadership at any given opportunity. total. And this is the basis of Chávez’s instruction to the Venezuelan armed forces (at the “1st Military Forum on President Chávez also understands that the process leading to state failure is the most dangerous long-term security challenge facing the global community today. It is a process by which a state loses the capacity and/or the will to perform its essential legitimizing governance and security functions. He understands that war is no longer limited to using military violence to bring about desired political change. first. and mass media network are completely paralyzed. As a consequence. the “battlefield” is extended to everyone. and military means are utilized in gradual stages until the enemy is forced to sign a dishonorable peace treaty. the recruitment and use of child soldiers. and criminal anarchy. Rather. It is. not an outcome. That is to say.65 . Accordingly.” Chávez considers these actions to be steps that must be taken to bring about the political conditions necessary to establish Latin American socialism for the 21st century. Again. arms. whether they involve criminal business enterprise. disease. They are closely related to his security scheme. As such. genocide. They can host “evil” networks of all kinds.

trade deficit. if Venezuelan citizens pass the dozens of constitutional amendments on the ballot. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez can tip the world into a recession. This is the first vote Mr Chávez has lost since coming to power in 1998.3 million voted in favour of these changes.” LexisNexis The key fact about Sunday's surprise defeat of President Hugo Chávez's proposal to change Venezeula's constitution was the massive abstention of his own supporters. decreasing central bank autonomy. Influential allies broke with him on this issue. the latter calculated to inflict maximum damage on the U.' "evil empire" is historically over. It proposed a complex package of constitutional changes which he insisted be treated as a unitary whole. only 4.S.3 per cent. banks. who are in a strategic alliance to push up the price of oil. Growing inflation. The Saudis and other oil-producing countries have tried to increase output to offset rising costs.KY 2NC Venezuela Turn---Econ Scenario Inflation is key to preventing voters from granting Chavez more constitutional powers The Irish Times. This setback is a healthy democratic check for Mr Chávez. The proposals to fund community organisations directly could make a difference here. could then reach out to partners in Syria and elsewhere in the region. Political Consultant. the remaining $45 in the current price is a political premium caused by uncertainty in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Many of his supporters were worried that abolishing the limit on presidential terms would further encourage the authoritarian tendencies already so visible in his populist style of rule. December 6.would be especially detrimental in the U. extending social security to the selfemployed and directly funding the community councils he has created as a bulwark for his "Bolivarian revolution". June 14. working in cahoots. a world economic crisis would prove that capitalism is a failure and the U. The day could easily deteriorate into one of violence. Italy's Mussolini and Orwell's Big Brother. corruption and shortages of staple products like flour. cooking oil. http://www. milk. In Chavez's eyes. martial law and suspension of oil production. An oil crisis during the Christmas season -.php?context=va&aid=5964) Times of economic crisis produce international tension and politicians tend to go to war rather than face the economic music. 2. the U.S.. Conditions in the coming years could be as .with its 40% share of annual retail sales -.globalresearch. “Does Hugo Chavez have us over a barrel?”. With the price of oil hovering near $100 a barrel and markets skittish because of the subprime housing crisis (not to mention the stability of U. Los Angeles Times. to social changes like reducing the working day from eight to six hours. The two. Latin American Newspaper Columnist & Consultant. Nigeria and Venezuela. But where the world sees a threat. NUCLEAR WAR Cook 7 (Richard C. His opponents rallied some 30 per cent of the electorate to give them a very narrow victory of 50. the weak dollar and deteriorating domestic consumer confidence). Ahmadinejad can use world chaos to gain hegemonic strength in the Middle East. Chavez's Bolivarian socialist economic order would supposedly move to the forefront. These proposed changes became more salient because of the recent uneven performance of the Venezuelan economy. Chavez will essentially be granted dictatorial powers -.ca/index. meat and sugar have mocked his promises of greater equality and raised questions about whether they will be delivered upon. Overall turnout was down from 70 to 56 per cent. notwithstanding the oil boom which has sustained Mr Chávez's social programme.S. pg. But working against stability and for high oil prices are Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They ranged from abolishing presidential term limits that would have allowed him to stand again in 2013. Jacob) On Dec. the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and social unrest in Pakistan. For his part. notably among a freshly mobilised student movement. Lexis. but they depend on local control rather than the centralisation implied by Mr Chávez's own political role. Oil economists calculate that on a supply-anddemand basis alone. The classic example is the worldwide depression of the 1930s leading to World War II. It may galvanise the fragmented opposition but is not likely to affect the underlying popularity of his programme of change. causing a recession Rowan & Schoen 11-13-07 (Michael-. Douglas-.S. Mr Chávez acknowledged that in a statement accepting defeat when he said he has attempted too much change too rapidly. This combination of legal and social change has a contradictory content and appeal. entrenching socialist values. Rising oil prices have caused global recessions in the past.7 to 49. Parallel attacks on opposition media had a similar resonance. Chavez would use increased Constitutional power to cut off oil to the US. 2007. On that day.S. such a move on Chavez's part would go a long way in triggering a recession. economy. the price of oil would be about $50. Ahmadinejad and Chavez see opportunity: Civil discord lines their pockets. eggs. “Defeat for Chávez. Compared to the seven million votes he received in the presidential election last December. saying he should not be trusted on it and that a personality cult is developing alongside plans to merge his supporters into one political party. Iran's suspected nuclear plans.an elected strongman reminiscent of Spain's Franco.

or whomever.KY bad as they were then. how about a few nukes? . If they don’t want our dollars or our debt any more.S. We could have a really big war if the U. have it in the chops. decides once and for all to haul off and let China.

Financial analysts expect Venezuela to place at least another $15 billion in bonds on the capital markets this year. said Puentes.KY 2NC Venezuela Turn---UQ Inflation high now Eyanir Chinea 4/16 writer for Reuters. His government plans to spend $26 billion on social programs for 2011-2012 and has expanded this year's national budget by 45 percent. The analysts say price controls will only distort a highly regulated economy further and speed up inflation in the long run as the cheaper regulated goods become scarce and producers compensate their losses by raising prices on unregulated goods. cars.” http://www. Chavez. a major gripe with voters. to reduce speculation to zero because it is one of the main factors causing inflation. according to Jose Manuel Puentes of the IESA business school in Caracas. Last year. The initial freezing of prices of 19 key goods in December has begun to kick in: Consumer prices rose 3. In fact.." complained Moises Bittan of Fedecamaras. "This is just the start.reuters. CASH INJECTION Chavez has made clear that his election strategy is to put more money in the pockets of Venezuelans by stepping up an array of social programs that have redistributed income to the poor as part of his so-called socialist revolution. as well as over a rising crime rate that has made Venezuelan cities unsafe. for which he is having radiation treatment in Cuba. . the worse inflation will get. maintains that speculators and hoarders are fueling inflation.5 percent in the first three months of 2012. Chavez's opposition is taking him to task for the high cost of living. The government's dilemma is that the more it regulates the economy. "Some producers are operating almost at a loss..Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is so determined to contain one of the world's highest inflation rates in an election year that his price control officials are sticking signs outside stores to enforce compliance. "We will continue monitoring clothing. who has nationalized great swathes of the Venezuelan economy. Venezuela has the most regulated economy in Latin America after communist Cuba and inflation rates that are four or five times higher than the region's average. putting further stress on a weakened private sector.more than $17 billion . medicine . temporary closure or outright expropriation by his socialist government. the lowest quarterly rate since the oil exporting country introduced a new index four years ago. The official inflation target for this year is in the 22-25 percent range." Despite suffering from an unspecified cancer. food above all. Amid doubts over his health. "What's happening is they are containing inflation but not really attacking the causes of inflation. Venezuela's main business lobby. But most economists believe Chavez's efforts to contain inflation will have only short-term results because increased public spending in the run-up to the October 7 presidential election is bound to stoke prices again in the oil-producing OPEC nation.com/article/2012/04/16/us-venezuelainflation-idUSBRE83F16N20120416 (Reuters) . Additional funding will come from new bond issues after the government eliminated the debt ceiling by decree in March. The red-yellow-green traffic light notices tell shoppers whether a store is obeying new price caps. the import of food and medicine as well as non-essential consumer goods. many of the causes are being deepened. Venezuelan business leaders criticize the government for suffocating the economy with regulations like price controls that reduce productivity and increase the country's dependence on imported goods. and includes a 30 percent increase in the minimum wage that will be seen in paychecks in two stages." said economist Pedro Palma of the Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica. but market players expect it to be closer to last year's 27. Businesses that don't comply face fines. The cash flow is expected to begin in the second quarter. Chavez is seeking another six-year term in October in the toughest election battle he has faced in 13 years in office.2 percent. and he accuses his political opponents of trying to disrupt the economy to undermine his government. May and September. “Chavez battles re-election hurdle: Venezuela inflation. The massive injection of funds is expected to heat up the economy and speed up inflation. Venezuela issued more sovereign paper than any other Latin American state ." he vowed recently.to fund housing projects.

who says high food prices show that capitalism is a failed system. Chávez. fixed prices distort the supply chain and a bonanza from record oil prices drives up domestic demand. the country is now one of the few net food importers in Latin America. as unrest from Haiti to Senegal has shown in recent months. a leftist populist. has sheltered consumers from rising world food costs with subsidies and price controls. “Stumbling toward food security. . Harvests of many crops have risen steadily since he took office. ''Some day Venezuela will export food. but it has run into difficulties at home.'' Venezuela is a lush country. Reuters. Food shortages are a tinderbox issue everywhere in the world. said Thursday during a visit to a newly irrigated corn farm in the neighboring state of Barinas.” The International Herald Tribune. Even as a member of OPEC. meaning imports are often less expensive than home-grown produce. where new tractors worked the land. Oil wealth contributes to a strong currency. ''Output keeps on rising. along with an overvalued currency. Hobbled by poor planning. 2008. and coffee and cocoa farms were neglected.to increase their grain production. Even so. Venezuela has promised to help other left-leaning governments in the region . Chávez is determined to reduce Venezuela's dependence on costly imports and make its fields more productive. Nicaragua and Cuba . LexisNexis Hurt by sporadic shortages of basic products last year.'' But cases like the empty plant in Mantecal show that bad planning.empirically proven Frank Jack Daniel.like Bolivia. ''It was totally abandoned.KY 2NC Venezuela Turn---XT Link High food prices prevent Chavez from gaining more powers. April 30. There is little doubt that Chávez is paying more attention to the countryside than any government in a generation.'' Chávez. but agriculture began to diminish in importance as oil boomed in the 1920s. as world food prices hit all-time highs. have slowed Chávez's drive to make the fertile land produce more. ''This is a serious attempt to break with a model based only on oil and diversify the economy. some products have been scarce as world supplies tighten. a leader of peasant farmers. Anger at long lines for milk contributed to Chávez's defeat in a referendum on extending his powers last year. Venezuela confronts shortages.'' said Andrés Tuesta.

"We are distancing ourselves fundamentally from the imperial pretensions of the United States.5 billion in Bolivia's gas industry in coming years. Last year. May 4th.washingtonpost. Political Consultant. Washington Post Foreign Service. he pledged $47 billion in aid and agreements -. Latin American Newspaper Columnist & Consultant. In Venezuela. too.6%. The Center of Economic Investigations. “Does Hugo Chavez have us over a barrel?”." Alvaro Garcia Linera. aid for health. the vice president. Venezuelan inflation decreasing Venezuelan News Agency 12 (Venezuela's Inflation Falls for 5 Months in a Row. Lexis.8%. Bolivia. Argentina owes him $5 billion. In Bolivia. Bolivia let its agreement with the fund end.8% inflationary increase in April. http://venezuelanalysis. the capital. has plainly gathered steam in some Latin American countries. Last March. Venezuela is proposing a new multinational bank." With Venezuela offering loans. It was aided by Venezuela. “Chavez Builds His Sphere Of Influence. Argentina. Los Angeles Times. "In the case of the United States. thinking of the conditions of people's lives and people's culture. Chavez’s aid increases Venezuelan influence Rowan & Schoen 11-13-07 (Michael-.4%.5 billion in Argentine debt. which had bought $2.com/news/6970) Venezuela’s National Consumer Price Index recorded a 0. which represents a decline in inflation for the fifth month in a row." said Haiman El Troudi. the country's central bank recorded billions spent on foreign bonds and other investments in the first nine months of last year. we're locked into specific areas -. So far. has moved to cut back its ties to the IMF and related lenders. and his candidates came within 1% of winning elections in Mexico and Costa Rica in 2006. which is predicated on a break with all multinational institutions with Washington ties. has enthralled supporters who believe the country is in the vanguard of a new era in Latin America. Giordani said this downward trend reaffirms the goal set in the national budget of annual inflation in 2AC Venezuala Uniqueness . Presenting the results of a report drafted by the Venezuelan Central Bank and the National Statistics Institute. Goodman. to replace Washington-based lenders." The Venezuelan model. "The leftist. spent in the Marshall Plan after World War II) in political investments in the Americas and elsewhere.” Washington Post. after spending nearly two decades under the strictures of an IMF program. Venezuela has committed more than $140 million in loans and grants while pledging to invest as much as $1. while the annual rate from May 2011 to April 2012 is 23. This represents a fall from the annualised inflation rate in March of 24. Still. said in an interview in his office. Bolivian leaders said Venezuelan aid comes with fewer strings attached. informed Finance Minister Jorge Giordani during a joint press conference with the president of the Venezuelan Central Bank. The Venezuelan aid "allows us greater flexibility to choose projects with more productive impact. aid for electricity.measures opposed by orthodox economists. Morales nationalized the gas industry and renegotiated agreements with foreign investors -. a former chief of staff to Chavez who studies economic issues at the state-funded International Miranda Center in Caracas.KY 2NC Venezuela Turn---XT Kills US Influence Venezuelan aid is pushing the US out of Latin America Juan Forero and Peter S. recovering after its 2001 economic collapse by ignoring some crucial aspects of IMF advice. paid off the last of the $10 billion it owed the fund. 2007. February 23.aid for roads. a Bank of the South.S. Ecuador. dwarfing the amount the United States offers in assistance to Latin America. coupled with Chavez's recent announcements that he will nationalize utilities and take greater control of oil projects at the expense of multinational corporations. Jacob) Chavez is a brilliant military strategist who has reportedly spent or committed $110 billion since 2004 (an amount equivalent in today's dollars to what the U. The Correa administration said it would not sign an agreement allowing the fund to monitor the government's economic plan.html The amount of Venezuelan aid is hard to quantify. Nelson Merentes. progressive thought is thinking the same. the installation of new social relations to get along. Meanwhile. Ecuador and Nicaragua are already in his camp. authorities confirmed that accrued inflation during the first four months of 2012 amounts to 4.impossible to deliver considering that Venezuela's annual budget hovers around $50 billion. has kept track of Chavez's frequent pronouncements and says that in 2006. His plan is to spread the revolution against capitalism and the United States. he has a string of victories to show for it. Douglas-. especially those ventures that include a state presence.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/22/AR2007022201875_pf. http://www. a consulting firm in Caracas. thinking of human beings. the closer ties to Ecuador and Nicaragua.

KY 2012 of between 20% and 22%. the smallest jumps in four years. In February it was 1.0%.1%.5% and in December 2011.9% in March. with the consumer price index climbing 1. which would mean a reduction of nearly 10 percentage points when compared to the end of 2011.6% last month when compared to April. I am optimistic. Variation of the National Consumer Price Index rated 0. down from the 27. The downward trend appears at risk.” and the result of first quarter economic performance. with annualized inflation slowing through the first five months of the year to register at 22. the sharpest rise so far in 2012. This data "is accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate (7. ." said National Assemblyman Jesus Faria in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.9% in March). the minister stated.wsj. Venezuelan inflation slowing down – expected to fall to 18% this year Minaya 12 (Ezequiel. 1. Venezuela has made progress toward the goal. according to a report from the central bank last week.html) CARACAS--Venezuela's annual inflation rate could ease to as low as 18% by year's end. in January 1.Government Official.6% posted last year. "We are confident that the downward trend that is being registered will continue. however. I think it can reach 18% or 19%.com/article/BT-CO-20120612-710137. Faria's forecast improves on predications by the heads of Venezuela's central bank and finance ministry.8%. who expect 2012 inflation of between 20% and 22%.6% in May." Mr. http://online. according to the vice president of the parliament's finance committee. Venezuela Inflation Could Slow to 18% in 2012 . "I personally estimate an inflation [rate] below 20%. The latest results followed two consecutive month-on-month increases below 1.

best way to solve poverty Declan Butler. Public spending on basic agricultural research fell during the 1980s and 1990s in rich countries (see page 8). bilateral farming aid from Europe dropped by two-thirds and World Bank lending in the sector slipped from 30% to 8% .nature. There are many useful directions for such development. Indeed.” http://www.freetrade. Jacob) The collective effect of American farm policies is to depress the income of agricultural producers worldwide. the pay-offs to agricultural research are massive. terrorist ringleaders find fertile ground for their message of hate and violence. The frustration and despair caused by these policies undermine American security. High food prices spur international aid and development in the ag sectors Sub Saharan Africa. which both chilled research in the area and reduced incentives for such technologies to be fielded in countries looking to European export markets. eight times the number in the United States and four times the number in India. and bank administrators say that a portion of the new money will go towards basic research.S. The downslide was most pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa. farm and trade policies increased the "poverty gap" worldwide." Johan Norberg. in a survey of anti-American sentiment around the world. Nicholas Stern. But the more pressing problem for poor farmers is not the development of new technologies but access to those already there. Plenty of good agricultural science — such as locally adapted seed varieties and soil surveys — sits unused because it has not been delivered in a form adequately tailored to the end users and their limited means. Agriculture has poverty-busting powers beyond straightforward revenue increases. indeed. too. much will be channelled through the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa led by Kofi Annan. of the Swedish think tank Timbro. “Six Reasons to Kill Farm Subsidies and Trade Barriers”. Slivinski. belatedly. some backlash against intensified farming among green groups. chief economist at the World Bank. exacerbating poverty in areas. and. development and extension services in developing countries. Resources need to go towards coordinating and strengthening local agricultural extension services as an integral part of revamping and reintegrating the research infrastructure.S. Feb. argues that farm . A contributing factor to this decline from the 1990s on was Europe's attitude to genetically modified crops. Nature Magazine. Many people who depend on agriculture for their survival. But here. to this logic. or religious boundaries. is blunt about America's leadership role. where people are heavily dependent on agriculture. farm policy as part of an anti-American narrative in which Washington wants to keep the rest of the world locked in poverty. One might assume that such cutbacks in research reflected poor results. drought resistance and reduced requirements for inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides are all promising. such as sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia. higher yields.N. the International Monetary Fund and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are also opening their coffers.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/full/453001b. It reports an average annual return of 43% . both as a source of nourishment and a means of acquiring wealth. & Preble Trade & Foreign Policy Studies Cato ‘6 (Daniel. and Christopher.KY 1NC Africa Turn 1.html There are various ways in which the fruits of scientific research might have helped ease the suffering that comes from this confluence of factors. Agricultural research systems in sub-Saharan Africa are fragmented into almost 400 distinct agencies. http://www.org/node/493. One reason for this is that poor people in poor countries who earn a little extra cash will spend it on basic local goods and services — agricultural growth spurs economic growth from the bottom up. In the case of the Gates's money. 1 May 2008. “A research menu. the Pew Research Center found a majority of respondents in more than a dozen countries were convinced that U. In such an environment. On 2 April the World Bank announced its intention to double agricultural lending to subSaharan Africa over the next year.S. the bank noted with self-reproach — cites 700 published estimates of rates of return on investment in agricultural research. publication Africa Recovery. The past weeks have brought signs that global institutions and donors are beginning to bow." Stern told the U. agriculture expert. ethnic. "and then erect obstacles in precisely those markets in which developing countries have a comparative advantage. where the cutbacks were still severe even though there had been no Green Revolution comparable to that in Asia. 1. 2. "It is hypocritical to preach the advantages of free trade and free markets. These sentiments transcended geographic. The World Bank's World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development (http://tinyurl. Cotton subsides fuel anti-American sentiment increasing terrorist recruitment Griswold. Stephen. A study of 42 developing countries covering the period from 1981 to 2003 found that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) that originated in agriculture increased spending by the poor two-and-a-half times more than does GDP growth in other sectors. Furthermore the economic disparities created by U. the harvest is not what it might have been. The reasons for this included the perceived success of Green Revolution technologies in Asia.com/2ngyqd) — the first of the annual reports to focus on agriculture for a quarter of a century. The proportion of US aid ploughed into agriculture wilted from 25% to 1% . Not so. Britain. perceive U.

"To put this figure into perspective.) American subsidies and tariffs amount to much more money than its foreign aid to the developing world. we will all be losers. internationally renowned reporter and columnist in Al Ahram. tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate.S.000 growers. It is also more than the GDP of Benin. "it is nearly twice the total amount of U. it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. the main cotton-producing countries in the region. government provided $3. Societies would close in on themselves. from which no one will emerge victorious.eg/2004/705/op5. To the extent that American security depends on the expansion of liberal democratic institutions and free market economics. this war will be without winners and losers. they want our respect. police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights. Burkina Faso.htm) What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds." including about 25.S.KY protection in developed countries amounts to a "deliberate and systematic means of undermining the very type of industry in which the developing countries do have comparative advantages. According to Oxfam. the U.ahram. This could lead to a third world war. or Chad." The subsidies drive down world cotton prices. Washington must be particularly sensitive to policies that exacerbate poverty in the developing world. Terrorism causes extinction SID-AHMED 04 (Mohamed.4 billion in total subsidies to the cotton sector. 3. foreign aid given to sub-Saharan Africa. Poor countries don't want our pity.org." (See "Poor Man's Hero. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet." December 2003. "in crop year 2002. . It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another." Oxfam says. “Extinction!” Al-Ahram Weekly. costing developing countries billions of dollars in lost export earnings. http://weekly.

The commercialisation of agriculture would provide many opportunities for Africa even though the approach does not seem to sit easily with the notions of poverty reduction and food security. Nobel Laureate and the father of the Green Revolution. continue to experience food-security problems for two main reasons: the malfunctioning of internal food markets and low productivity.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065 At today’s higher food prices.4 per cent in the mid-1980s to 3. and roots and tubers have stagnated during 1990-2006. investment in agriculture and more agricultural science and technology—all of which are called for by Mr von Braun— will result from high food prices.creates long term solution to poverty and hunger Homi Kharas. The Gates and Rockefeller Foundations created an Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa in 2006. smallholder production systems with little acreage and limited intensification. said "the current food price crisis could be an opportunity for governments to work with NGOs and UN agencies to provide cash transfers to build up stronger social protection systems for the chronically poor. These measures can only provide short-term emergency relief as long as agricultural productivity remains low.com/stories/200809040012. “The Proposition's rebuttal statement. September 3. In Africa. The World Bank president.pdf The curse of higher food prices can be turned into a blessing if African agriculture finally becomes a business. a silent tsunami that threatened humanity. Stagnating productivity and the pre-dominance of subsistence agriculture represent the current sorry state of agriculture but also indicate unexploited agricultural potential and .2 per cent in 2006. “West Africa: Do High Food Prices Warrant a Cash Response?” http://allafrica. called the hunger and malnutrition goal the “forgotten MDG”. 2008. credits the Indian government’s decision to drop price controls on food to restore market incentives to a point where farmers would rapidly introduce the new varieties. none of this happened when food prices were low.org/dataoecd/15/7/40573527. 2008. The share of African products in world agricultural imports has actually declined from 5. only 10 per cent of the land area suitable for irrigation is being irrigated. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development.com.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065 Mr von Braun deplores the change in the status quo that higher food prices represent. August 1. many new opportunities present themselves. which is key to the sector Denise Wolter.” The Economist. “The Proposition's rebuttal statement. Michael O'Donnell. African agriculture is still dominated by traditional. The continent is losing out in world agricultural trade. http://www.economist. yields for cereals.oecd. They are trying to replicate the successful Green Revolution which helped large parts of Asia defeat hunger in the 1970s. The real point is that the status quo of low food prices was itself the problem. “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”. High food prices prompt agencies to build better social protection infrastructure AllAfrica. Writing about that success. Yet. one of the leading economists of our generation has said on another occasion. May 2008." High food prices will spur investment in African agriculture.economist. http://www. There is every hope that changes in trade policy.solves poverty and hunger Homi Kharas. High food prices key to increasing investment and research in African agriculture. The World Bank has already announced $350m more in agricultural support for Africa next year. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. even countries which are in principle food-secure. Zambia is a case in point: less than 15 per cent of its arable land is under cultivation.KY 2NC Africa Turn---XT Link High food prices prompt investment in African agriculture. Carlo Schmid Fellow at OECD Development Centre. head of hunger reduction for non-governmental organisation (NGO) Save the Children. August 1. Robert Zoellick.com/debate/index. Norman Borlaug. Now the alarm has been rung and misguided agricultural policies are being rectified. rain-fed.html Experts say many of the right conditions are in place across West Africa to make cash distributions work in the current global food price crisis. such as Tanzania and Ghana.com/debate/index. Food aid. 2008.” The Economist. while yields in Southeast Asia increased by more than 30 per cent (see Figures 1 and 2). and 40 per cent of rural households are solely engaged in subsistence agriculture. with significant funding to improve seeds and soil. It was high food prices in the 1960s and 1970s that helped initiate and sustain the Green Revolution and there is every reason to suppose that high food prices today can serve as a prologue for a similar revolution in Africa in the years to come. As Paul Romer. which correspond to the same real level as in the 1960s and 1970s. As we would expect. “Higher Food Prices – A Blessing in Disguise For Africa?” OECD Development Centre. subsidies and export restrictions have not resolved Africa’s food-security problems. http://www.

while commercialisation programmes for export crops are quite common. commercialising food-crop production also presents the opportunity for Africa to re-gain ground in world agricultural trade. August 1. Africa had to use scarce foreign exchange to import rice and household food consumption did not grow. the observed improvements in agricultural productivity in Southeast Asia have been closely linked to increased public spending on agricultural research and development (R&D) and better extension services. however. Joachim von Braun’s own organisation. Low international food prices were partly to blame. "The price rise really is quite dramatic. Falling production is the inevitable response when private producers are faced with falling prices. who may not be considered poor themselves. International Food Policy Research Institute. limited investment in agriculture.org/pubs/newsletters/ifpriforum/if200803. Low food prices meant that rates of . so future large harvests may not represent large increases over past production. High food prices are an opportunity for poor farmers in SSA to increase profits Heidi Fritschel. comparable examples for food crops are rare. have been producing record harvests in recent years anyway. Contract farming (e. Donors and governments need to move beyond working only with small-scale producers to alleviate poverty. high transport costs. The FAO's Daniel Gustafson sees evidence that certain countries will significantly raise agricultural production. Building on the lessons learned from successful commercialisation programmes in the export sector. planting materials and credit) and markets." Low food prices caused low investment production. the growth rate of public investment in agriculture fell in every region in the world.ifpri. and farmers in Malawi and Zambia are likely to increase their production owing to subsidized input programs in those countries. in Tanzania surplus regions prefer to export their produce to neighbouring countries. Rising local and regional demand in Africa provides ample opportunities to expand production and to develop food-processing industries. The current food-price crisis could become a blessing if it leads to a stronger focus on how to make food markets work. and pricing and marketing policies that penalized farmers”.economist. Last but not least. outgrower schemes) has proved to be an effective mechanism for involving smallholder farmers in export-crop production and to achieve economies of scale. There are other areas where people have left the farm. 2008. which they probably will. produced positive results in the horticultural sectors in Ghana. According to recent OECD Development Centre research.g. March 2008. Poor transport infrastructure. So far. Traders. Yet. African food production per head has declined by 12% since 1980. are important intermediaries in the agro-food value chain.” The Economist. wholesalers and exporters. the potential impact on poverty reduction and economic development should not be underestimated. According to the United Nations. donors and governments have focused too much on production. we could see some of these people returning to what now may be a better option. Donor support has been crucial in facilitating the establishment of those schemes. especially in Senegal. rice production in Africa was being outstripped by population growth.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829065 The prolonged period of low food prices did very little to reduce poverty and hunger.asp High food prices should present a golden opportunity for poor farmers to ramp up production and increase their profits. Admittedly the design of such programmes for food crops is more challenging. large European agro-food companies are already examining the investment possibilities in African agriculture to ensure future supplies for their domestic markets. rather to other regions of their own. donors should now turn their attention to the commercial potential of food crops. the International Food Policy Research Institute. In Africa. lack of market information and unpredictable government interventions currently hinder commercial development. Increasing the productivity of food crops will require sizeable investments in irrigation. African conditions were not suitable for high-yielding Asian hybrids and African highyielding varieties were not developed and distributed. more than 20% of children under five were severely or moderately underweight (the UN’s indicator of hunger) in 2000-04 in most of sub-Saharan Africa and in several countries in Asia. leaving land fallow." says Gustafson. especially in Africa where it is most intransigent. In an assessment of declining African food production. By the mid-1990s. OECD Development Centre research shows that donor projects. Senegal and to a lesser extent in Mali and Zambia. There has been very little progress in Africa over the last decade. USAID support for agricultural science in Africa has been cut by 75% over the last two decades. especially in Asia. In Africa in the 1990s. “The Proposition's rebuttal statement. A number of countries. Moreover. The chance of combining business with agricultural development should not be missed as in the long-term a vibrant private sector should be the motor of development. As real food prices fell from 1975 onwards. “What Goes Down Must Come Up: Global Food Prices Reach New Heights. South Africa is expected to increase its planted area by 8 percent.” http://www. contributing to African poverty Homi Kharas. public R&D spending has been declining over the last three decades. so if high prices prevail.KY commercial opportunities. he says. Governments and donors should aim their interventions at unleashing this potential. leaving aside market linkages and institutional capacity building. it averaged just 1% per year. That is code for saying that prices were too low.com/debate/index. which adopted a commercial approach. for example. This is why. and there are many parts of India where even if the local rise in prices doesn't match international ones. there could still be a big jump. storage and transport infrastructure as well as improved access to inputs (such as fertilisers. singles out “poor infrastructure. "We could see some significant increases in Indian cereal production. This trend should be reversed and extension services need to be improved to ensure that farmers obtain the full benefit from R&D results. The fall in developed countries was most dramatic: from 1991 to 2000 real growth was negative. http://www. Seeing agriculture as a business also requires a broadening of the scope of the actors to be involved. seeds. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development. But governments also responded by cutting their investments in agriculture. or some members of the family have left the farm.

KY return on proposed projects in roads. irrigation and marketing infrastructure were too low to justify investment. Africa’s poor farmers simply could not compete when international food was so cheap. .

2. Jacob) Rabid Tiger Project. who are willing to push the button rather than risk being seen as wishy-washy in the face of a mortal threat and overthrown.KY 2NC Africa Turn---War Impact 1. July 12. But an African nuclear strike can ignite a much broader conflagration. in Europe where the political lines have long since been drawn. Of course." thank you. “At last. Civil wars in the Congo (the country formerly known as Zaire). Thus. The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear war is most likely to start in Africa. India. Rabid Tiger Newsletter. http://www. outside powers can more easily find client states there than. say. We've got all too many rabid tigers and potential rabid tigers. Sudan and other countries. and some people love to go fishing.and even to faraway rich countries . Africa is open range. even apart from the humanitarian reasons. Nov. engineering. Founder of Rabid Tiger Project. a political risk consulting and related research firm.financial.html. an African war can attract outside involvement very quickly. such a strike would in the first place have been facilitated by outside help .the international community has "compelling" reasons to try to prevent them. or Asia where many of the countries (China. . But a recent World Bank study of 52 major civil wars found most were caused not by ethnic tensions but by entrenched poverty and heavy dependence on natural resource exports. Assoc. and domestic instability in Zimbabwe.com/jeff-deutsch/rtn/ newsletterv2n9. Somalia and Sierra Leone. Geopolitically speaking. etc. Thus. South Africa is a major exception in this respect . Jacob) Africa's wars are often dismissed as "ethnic" conflicts. if the other powers are interested in a fight.not to mention in that she also probably already has the Bomb. scientific. Africa is an ocean of troubled waters. America discovers Africa”.html. a proxy war alone may not induce the Great Powers to fight each other. Nuclear War Deutsch-Phd economics George Mason‘2 (Jeffrey. Certainly. http://users. Editor The Age. 18.com.au/articles/2003/07/11/ 1057783349674.theage.rcn. Rwanda. Vol. Japan) are powers unto themselves and don't need any "help. 2 #9. Very few countries in Africa are beholden to any particular power. African poverty and limited exports cause civil wars that escalate outside the continent Bone-associate editor The Age ‘3 (Pamela-.The report concluded that because the effects of these wars often spill over into neighbouring countries . as well as occasional brushfire and other wars (thanks in part to "national" borders that cut across tribal ones) turn into a really nasty stew.

Not a day goes by without realizing that trying to understand them and their violent behavior in purely individual terms is impossible and wrong-headed. and other forms of behavioral violence occur one at a time. that evolves from the experience of men in maximum security prisons and hospitals for the criminally insane must begin with the recognition that these institutions are only microcosms.S. I am contrasting "structural" with "behavioral violence. 1939-1945). It had the least inequity in income and living standards. Any theory of violence. for they are inextricably related to each other. During the past decade. especially a psychological theory. it is also the root cause of all other violence James Gilligan professor of Psychiatry at the Harvard Medical School. and the U. including those by genocide —or about eight million per year. When they compared the life expectancies of those living in the other socioeconomic systems against Sweden. Focusing merely on those relatively few men who commit what we define as murder could distract us from examining and learning from those structural causes of violent death that are far more significant from a numerical or public health. They are not where the major violence in our society takes place. capital punishment. Any approach to a theory of violence needs to begin with a look at the structural violence in this country. These are not acts of God. *Structural violence is normally invisible. such as World War II (an estimated 49 million military and civilian deaths. in effect. they found that 18 million deaths a year could be attributed to the "structural violence" to which the citizens of all the other nations were being subjected. every fifteen years.R. and even a hypothetical nuclear exchange between the U. the equivalent of an ongoing. By "structural violence" I mean the increased rates of death. Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural violence to the frequency of those caused by major military and political violence. whereas murders. as contrasted with the relatively lower death rates experienced by those who are above them. unending.KY 2NC Africa Turn---Poverty Impact Poverty is a form of structural violence that is equivalent to an ongoing nuclear war against the poor. which continues year after year. perpetrated on the weak and poor every year of every decade.000) deaths). throughout the world.S. *The lethal effects of structural violence operate continuously. The question as to which of the two forms of violence—structural or behavioral—is more important. and the lowest discrepancies in death rates and life expectancy. This is. the discrepancies between the rich and poor nations have increased dramatically and alarmingly. You cannot work for one day with the violent people who fill our prisons and mental hospitals for the criminally insane without being forcible and constantly reminded of the extreme poverty and discrimination that characterizes their lives. such as the deaths we attribute to homicide. and so on. concerning how to distribute the collective wealth of the society. or lethal is moot. thermonuclear war. ." by which I mean the non-natural deaths and injuries that are caused by specific behavioral actions of individuals against individuals. as many people die because of relative poverty as would be killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year period. independent of individuals and groups (politicians. Kohler and Alcock attempted to arrive at the number of excess deaths caused by socioeconomic inequities on a worldwide basis. and about their families and friends. dangerous. executions. or genocide. suicides. political parties. and the highest overall life expectancy in the world. wars. Violence: Our Deadly Epidemic and its Causes. or human. [Continued… (9 Paragraphs Later…)] The finding that structural violence causes far more deaths than behavioral violence does is not limited to this country. Structural violence differs from behavioral violence in at least three major respects.000 deaths per year from armed conflict. soldiers in warfare. Those excess deaths (or at least a demonstrably large proportion of them) are a function of class structure. Director of the Center for the Study of Violence. the Vietnam war (possibly two million. and disability suffered by those who occupy the bottom rungs of society. on the average. and a member of the Academic Advisory Council of the National Campaign Against Youth Violence. it was clear that even war cannot begin to compare with structural violence. The 14 to 18 million deaths a year caused by structural violence compare with about 100. In other words. Hearing about their lives. (232 million). and that structure is itself a product of society's collective human choices.S. rather than sporadically. the Indonesian massacre of 1965-66 (perhaps 575. P. suicide. standpoint. you are forced to recognize the truth in Gandhi's observation that the deadliest form of violence is poverty. 1996. in fact accelerating. 191-196 The deadliest form of violence is poverty. because it may appear to have had other (natural or violent) causes. and the perpetrators who fill them are far from being the main causes of most violent deaths. *Structural violence operates more or less independently of individual acts. Structural violence is also the main cause of behavioral violence on a socially and epidemiologically significant scale (from homicide and suicide to war and genocide). 1954-1973). Sweden was their model of the nation that had come closes to eliminating structural violence. as cause to effect. voters) whose decisions may nevertheless have lethal consequences for others.

a consortium of 15 international research agricultural centers that focuses on setting priorities for international agricultural research.47 Most recently.news. Army War College and served as a strategic intelligence analyst for Africa at the John F. Some 800 million people in the world don't have enough to eat.S.pdf) Raising the Stakes:The Nuclear Dimension of the Terrorist Threat. he said. The clandestine nuclear weapons program directed by Dr. poor controls on the technology of nuclear weapons production.KY 2NC Africa Turn---Terrorism Impact Boosting regional agriculture is key to solving terrorism Lang ‘5 (Susan. Cornell economist Per Pinstrup-Andersen said at the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington. Army War College considers Iranian fielding of operational nuclear weapons to be inevitable and estimates the time frame for such a fielding to be 12 to 48 months.50 Under such circumstances. Much of his research is focused on developing policies to improve the global food system for the benefit of the nutritional status of low-income people. Loss of accountability for fissionable materials. also leave millions of people with nothing to lose.S. the 2001 World Food Prize Laureate and chair of the Science Council for the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research.24. as the Pakistani experience has demonstrated. is particularly important because at present agricultural science and investment generally benefit affluent farmers and consumers. and rife with corruption. The end of the Cold War has witnessed an alarming erosion of control and security of Russian nuclear technology and weaponry. the lack of security in the Russian weaponized nuclear technology sector represents a significant risk of nuclear capability finding its way into the hands of terrorist hubs. Nutrition and Public Policy at Cornell. and Khan himself seems to have operated with minimal oversight from the Pakistani government. on Feb.cornell. PinstrupAndersen is the H. April. and program participants are able to profit from diversion with little chance of detection by either the proliferating . http://www. D. Stern described a Soviet-era military that was melting down. unpaid. Terrorists operating in Africa will deploy nuclear weapons against the U.46 More recent reporting on the situation is hardly more encouraging. in the context of terrorist access to WMD. The clandestine Iranian nuclear weapons program is reportedly well-advanced. and the already very skewed gap between rich and poor keeps growing. Investment in productivity-increasing agricultural research. The nature of clandestine nuclear weapons programs makes them especially vulnerable to compromise.edu/chronicle/05/2. especially when those groups have access to significant financial resources. he said. February 24. These circumstances.S.Africa. Army War College-6 (Thomas. 21. the risk that critical nuclear technology will be diverted to groups like Al Qaeda is particularly high.48 When viewed in combination with the growing influence and reach of Russian organized crime. it has become increasingly evident that he exercised little control over the elements of his network operating outside of Pakistan.mil/pdffiles/pub649. environmental degradation and worldwide instability. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and as Chief of Africa Branch for the Defense Intelligence Agency. Lapses may have even included loss of operational nuclear devices. Busch and Holmes have catalogued the efforts of rogue states and of Al Qaeda to acquire nuclear weapons capability from the inadequately controlled Russian nuclear sector. Babcock Professor of Food.C. Even if the Iranian leadership does not regard sharing nuclear secrets with terrorist groups as a wise policy. The consequences of such destitution are malnutrition.. A survey in 2002 of 602 Russian scientists working in the Russian WMD sector revealed that roughly 20 percent of the Russian scientists interviewed expressed a willingness to work for nations identified as WMD proliferators: Iran. Iran may prove to be far more dangerous. The circumstances surrounding that proliferation—primarily its clandestine and covert nature—make it far more likely for nuclear weapons to find their way from state proliferators into the hands of terrorist groups. even hostile. elements within the Iranian government or participants in its nuclear weapons program may be willing to do so for their own reasons. Dempsey-Director of African Studies . pg. These people need to be heard. Abdul Qadeer Khan on behalf of the Pakistani government exemplifies the risks inherent in such secret undertakings. A recent study of the Iranian nuclear program published by the U. Counterterrorism in African Failed States: Challenges and Potential Solutions. said Pinstrup-Andersen. North Korea or Syria. making them ripe for turning to international terrorism in their frustration. Exacerbating this risk are the efforts of non-nuclear states that are seeking to develop a nuclear strike capability.05/AAAS.html) If the developed world fails to invest more in African agriculture and rural infrastructure to benefit the poor and help them escape poverty. the Iranian nuclear weapons program would seem to offer a tempting opportunity to Al Qaeda elements seeking clandestine access to nuclear technology. he warned. and poor supervision of Russia’s militarized scientific community characterized the post-Cold War Russian nuclear sector. and have identified the human element of that sector as being especially vulnerable. Director of African Studies @ U.49 Given Iran’s well-established relationship with Hezballah in Lebanon and its increasingly problematic. The threat that terrorist hubs based in failed states pose to the United States and to its allies escalates dramatically if those hubs can obtain access to nuclear weapons. http://www. The risk that such weapons will find their way into terrorist hands is increasing significantly as a result of three interrelated factors. He pointed out that about one-fifth of the world's population lives in dire poverty. It has also witnessed increasing nuclear proliferation among non-nuclear states.Andersen. His non-Pakistani partners in acquiring nuclear technology appear to have been motivated almost entirely by money. As the details of Khan’s nuclear weapons operation have emerged.army.E.strategicstudiesinstitute. relationship with the United States. the world will become a much more dangerous place. The problematic issue of accounting for and controlling Sovietera nuclear weapons and technology has been explored thoroughly by Jessica Stern in her 1999 study of terrorism and WMD. While North Korea frequently is cited as the best example of this sort of nuclear proliferation.

Cairo. Developing the nexus between nuclear weapons acquisition. or Somalia may have both. The recent attacks by terrorist nodes in state or by opponents of that proliferation. delivery to a local terrorist node. Escalating nuclear proliferation offers terrorist hubs sheltering in failed states the opportunity to translate funding into weapons access. . and Madrid suggest that such is the case. and entering the failed state in which they are located to apprehend or destroy them will be a complex and difficult task. If those hubs are successful in maintaining even a tenuous connection through their virtual network to terrorist nodes existing within the United States or the territory of its allies. Liberia. London. locating their members. interests.S. Identifying those hubs. only the hubs present a threat of genuinely serious proportions to U.S.KY While both hubs and nodes exist in failed state terrorist networks in SubSaharan Africa. Evolved terrorist hubs operating in failed states like Sierra Leone. then the risk posed by terrorist groups operating from failed states becomes real and immediate. or in other areas of vital U. and employment in a terrorist attack probably will require significant resources and considerable time. interest.

rose to 60. average daily consumption declined from $0.59 in 1995-99.9 percent in 2010.un. that despite the fact that the Nigerian economy is growing.5 million over the same period. compared with 54. http://www. "It remains a paradox . The number of Africans living in extreme poverty in these countries rose dramatically from 89. is more accurate in especially poor countries. since household surveys have often underrepresented the poorest sectors of the population. The percentage of Nigerians living in absolute poverty . with most of the rest in Asia and the Pacific. “Poverty is worsening in African LDCs”. poverty is likely to get worse as the gap between rich and poor in Africa's largest oil producer continues to widen. Israeli Journalist. the proportion of people in 29 African LDCs living below $2 per day increased from 82 per cent in the late 1960s to 87. This. Although Nigeria's economy is projected to continue growing. weak human resource base and low level of economic diversification. it is also deepening.com/article/2012/02/13/us-nigeriapoverty-idUSTRE81C0KR20120213) Poverty in Nigeria is rising with almost 100 million people living on less than $1 a day.the increase was from 55. UNCTAD also uses estimates based on national accounts. the national bureau of statistics said. “Nigerian Poverty rising despite economic growth”. the study notes.KY Poverty in Africa isn’t getting better Ari .7 percent in 2004. and thereby have led to underestimates of overall poverty levels. The UNCTAD report uses a new way to measure poverty. the proportion of Nigerians living in poverty is increasing every year. http://www.those who can afford only the bare essentials of food. reports UNCTAD's Least Developed Countries 2002.66 in 1975-79 to $0." Statistician General Yemi Kale told reporters in the capital Abuja. September 2002.reuters. despite strong growth in Africa's second largest economy..8 per cent to 64. 33 are in sub-Saharan Africa. For those in extreme poverty -. both in the past and more recently. based on their low GDP per capita. the average daily consumption of the extremely poor in five Asian LDCs rose from $0. 2 (Nirit Ben.84 to $0. The UN has classified 49 countries around the world as LDCs.6 million to 233.htm) Compared with least developed countries in other parts of the world. poverty still continues to grow Brock.under $1 per day -.90. 12(Joe. Even in Africa’s 2nd largest economy. Among Africans living on less than $1 a day. According to the agency. 2/13/12.. Energy Correspondent. Not only is poverty in African LDCs widening. says the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Rather than calculating the proportion of poor people on the basis of only household survey data. shelter and clothing . the report argues. poverty in African LDCs is rising markedly. In contrast. as the World Bank and other agencies have done. released in June. data showed on Monday. Of that number. The proportion of poor people in Asian LDCs also has declined steadily (see graph).5 per cent in the late 1990s. 2AC AFRICA TURN .org/en/africarenewal/vol16no2/162povty.9 per cent.

KY .

The second largest concentration of the poor is in China. Poverty. It would require from our state maximal tension. attributable mainly to higher prices for food. from antique MiG-21 fighters of the earliest modifications and S-75 air defense missile systems the Chinese antiaircraft defense forces have adopted Su-27 fighters and S-300 air defense missile systems.carnegieendowment. which are not yet available to the Russian Armed Forces! Russia may face the "wonderful" prospect of combating the Chinese army. For them. Thanks to our zeal. even if the aggression would be stopped after the majority of the Chinese are killed. through its own efforts Russia has nearly managed to liquidate its most significant technological advantage. A decade ago the CPLA was equipped with inferior copies of Russian arms from late 1950s to the early 1960s." The strength of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (CPLA) has been growing quicker than the Chinese economy. MAY 2008. Several studies using general equilibrium models have shown that rising world prices for grains would reduce poverty in China.pdf As noted. what would exhaust Russia's armament completely. The shock air force of our "eastern brethren" will in the near future replace antique Tu-16 and Il-28 airplanes with Su-30 fighters. Such a war would be more horrible than the World War II. We have not got another set of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-based missiles. Rising food prices solve poverty in China Sandra Polaski. “The Third Threat. but this does not guarantee success either). Trade. Equity and Development Program. rather disagreeable and we would not like to believe it can be true. universal mobilization and complete accumulation of the army military hardware. if full mobilization is called. An aforementioned prospect is. that some 250 to 300 million people live there. however. Chinese poverty causes Sino-Russia nuclear war Sharavin 10-1-2K1 (Alexander. including urban households.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. and the Doha Round. India is home to the largest number of poor people in the world. in a single direction (we would have to forget such "trifles" like Talebs and Basaev.e. whereas the general forces would be extremely exhausted in the border combats. our country would be absolutely unprotected against the "Chechen" and the "Balkan" variants both. It should not be forgotten. Senior Associate and Director. “Rising Food Prices. 2.8 Higher prices are offset by higher earnings for labor and land. which. and even against the first frost of a possible nuclear winter. However.org/files/polaski__food_prices.KY 1NC China Turn 1. up to the last tank or a plane. China's air defense forces have received Tor systems instead of anti-aircraft guns which could have been used during World War II. even the living standards of a backwater Russian town remain inaccessibly high. In the long run. i. http://www.just like a war against NATO or Islamic extremists.” What The Papers Say (Russia)) Chinese propaganda has constantly been showing us skyscrapers in free trade zones in southeastern China. There is every prerequisite for "the final throw to the north.9 Most historical studies conclude that the large reduction in poverty in China since 1978 was based primarily on better incomes in rural areas. leading to a decline in poverty for all household groups with significant poverty. which also has nuclear weapons (even tactical weapons become strategic if states have common borders) and would be absolutely insensitive to losses (even a loss of a few million of the servicemen would be acceptable for China). is comparable in size with Russia's entire population. . it is a realistic prospect . at most a quarter of China's population. A billion Chinese people are still living in misery. Massive nuclear strikes on basic military forces and cities of China would finally be the only way out. However. undoubtedly. They have absolutely nothing to lose.

KY 2NC China Turn---XT Link Rising food prices decrease Chinese poverty Patrice Hill.brookings. a short while ago many analysts claimed that the greatest risk to China’s development was the growing gap between income levels in urban and rural areas. Developing nations provide materials. the two countries with the biggest concentrations of poor people in the world. July 29. In fact. this has led to a system which is “unproductive. that problem has receded. July 29. http://www. these are the same households which have seen steady growth in wages in the last few years and have a middle-class living standard .Consider India. these are the same households which have seen steady growth in wages in the last few years and have a middle-class living standard. http://www.aspx) The ADB report also analyses China in some detail. With today’s food prices.com/debate/index. 2008. Although some urban households will be made worse off. along with many other countries. author of the Carnegie study. attributable mainly to higher prices for food. “The Proposition's opening statement” The Economist. With today’s food prices. China and Indonesia. "The large reduction in poverty in China since 1978 was based primarily on better incomes in rural areas. most of whom live in rural areas. Also in India. The ADB report also analyses China in some detail. “High prices not all bad.cfm?action=article&debate_id=10&story_id=11829062 The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just completed a study including the three countries with the largest rural populations in the world: India.” Higher world food prices might be just the push needed by India. that problem has receded.economist. High food prices decrease Chinese poverty and income inequality Homi Kharas.” LexisNexis Rising food prices clearly helped lift the incomes and living standards of poor people in China and India.edu/opinions/2008/0729_food_prices_kharas. The Washington Times. According to the ADB. It concludes that rural households in China should enjoy a significant reduction in the incidence of poverty as a result of high food prices. fellow @ the Brookings Institute. 2008. higher food prices key to resolving rich poor gap in china Kharas 8 (Homi. … (it) also accentuates inequality among rural Indian states. It concludes that rural households in China should enjoy a significant reduction in the incidence of poverty as a result of high food prices. a short while ago many analysts claimed that the greatest risk to China’s development was the growing gap between income levels in urban and rural areas." she said. . sr. and environmentally destructive. June 2. which has a long history of subsidising agricultural input and output prices. financially unsustainable. said Sandra Polaski. which has the largest number of poor living on less than $2 a day. Although some urban households will be made worse off. to persuade it to reform its agricultural pricing system and provide new opportunities for its desperate farmers. the poorest households saw the biggest gains from increasing rice prices. In fact. Senior Fellow @ Wolfensohn Center for Development.

he told business and civic leaders. . the poor in undeveloped countries were well-informed and knew about the comforts and jobs out of their reach. pg. Unlike in the past. the absolute number of poor in the world was still growing. The increasing income disparity between nations and within their borders "will ensure you will have growing conflicts between the rich and the poor". he told a public forum in the Philippine capital.com. there were about five billion poor people in the world a number that "will grow to eight billion people in the next five years".bt.bn/en/international_business/2008/03/06/rich_poor_gap_could_lead_to_more_strife) A WIDENING rich-poor gap in countries around the world could lead to a rise in class conflicts. Despite sharp growth in countries like China and India. he said. http://www. Fifteen years ago. particularly in Africa. former World Bank president James Wolfensohn said here yesterday.KY 2NC China Turn---Rich/Poor Gap --> Instability rich poor gap leads to chinese instability Brunei Times 8 (March 6.

India might make a grab for Tibet. security and economic growth .on its own. That would send Singapore and Malaysia .bet on it. Straits Times. the Chinese middle class alone may approach the size of the entire population of America. LN) But.because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. having created a runaway economic elephant. That's why wise policy encourages Chinese stability. some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of World War II Revisited and look to annex a slice of China. But imagine a China disintegrating .the very direction the White House now seems to prefer. which don't want them and can't handle them.KY 2NC China Turn---XT Impact chinese instability risks world war 3 Plate 3 (Tom. is it necessarily the same for the totalitarians running China? After all. It will want more freedom.once occupied by Japan . Meanwhile. That would knock Asia into chaos. A massive flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls.into nervous breakdowns . without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting. much less outright military invasion . while China's prosperity may be good for Americans. . June 28. UCLA professor. not less . Then you can say hello to World War III. Asia-style. will the Communist Party leaders be able to stay in the saddle? Before long. and Pakistan for Kashmir.

pressure from resources and the environment continues to mount. uncoordinated and unsustainable development remain challenging. .KY 2AC China Turn---Poverty High China sucks at poverty reduction Rediff Business 6/21 “China has over 100 mn living below poverty line.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-china-has-over-100mn-living-below-poverty-line/20120621. China still has more than 100 million people living below the poverty line .” http://www. "Moreover. and problems of unbalanced. He said China faces an uphill journey in promoting sustainable development .rediff.htm Calculated according to a new standard.25 a day at about 150 million. official media here quoted him as saying while addressing the meeting at Rio de Janeiro. "Last year World Bank pegged China's below poverty line population who lived on less than $1.

11 (“Rising Food Prices threaten Asia’s poor”. If higher food and oil prices persist for the rest of the year.htm) World food prices that surged 30 percent in the first two months of the year threaten to push millions of Asians into extreme poverty and cut economic growth. The surging prices translated into domestic food inflation of 10 percent on average in many Asian economies.tw/business/asia/asian-market/2011/04/27/300112/Risingfood. 2AC China turn. the report said.Rising Food prices bad .com. Food prices have been driven higher by surging oil prices.chinapost.5 percentage points from economic growth in developing Asian countries.KY High Food prices INCREASE the rate of poverty in China China Post. adding that it will also erode the living standards of families already living in poverty. the bank said in a report. 4/27/11. production shortfalls due to bad weather and export restrictions by several food producing countries. http://www. the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Tuesday. they could shave as much as 1. which could drive 64 million people into poverty.

on its own. which resulted from an undersupply of vegetables due to relatively cold weather in March. http://www. Chinese economic collapse leads to multiple scenarios of nuclear war Plate 2003 [Tom (Professor at UCLA).3pc. without neo-con or CIA prompting. “China Inflation Rises as bad weather pushes up food prices”. China would like to have it both ways right now: rapid growth and wealth creation. while Seoul was down 1. a Shanghai-based analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities said.KY Chinese Inflation increases because of high food prices AFP. some in Japan might lick their chops for World War II Redux and look to annex a slice of China. Premier Wen Jiabao. Refugees by the gazillions would head for Indonesia and other poorly border-patrolled places. with the CPI bottoming out in July this year." Stock markets throughout Asia reacted negatively to Monday's figure which was slightly higher than analysts' expectations of 3. "We And Chinese Inflation will collapse their economy Jones 2010 (Daryl. Huiyong.once Japanese colonies -. Say hello to World War III Asia-style! 2AC Chinese Inflation Turn . That would knock Asia into chaos. much less outright military invasion -. 4/9/12.because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses.cnn. “Neo-Cons: A Bigger Risk to Bush than China”. they have the potential of "popping" the bubble.com/2010/05/19/news/international/china. http://money.fortune/index. non-inflationary economy. India might make a grab for Tibet. speaking at the opening of the annual session of parliament in March. the ending is the same.html) "CPI was mainly pushed up by food prices. Straits Times. l/n nick] But imagine a China disintegrating -. That would send small but successful Singapore and Malaysia -. Inflation has triggered social unrest in the past and senior leaders are anxious to keep prices of basic goods such as vegetables. warned consumer prices remained high and said the government's aim was to keep inflation within four percent this year. making Jim Chanos a happy man but also causing serious damage to China's export heavy economy.into absolute nervous breakdowns.uk/finance/chinabusiness/9194038/China-inflation-rises-as-bad-weather-pushes-up-food-prices.57pc. June 28. That's a tough task: nearly every time we've seen this movie before. but also the safety of a properly valued.47pc and Shanghai dropped 0. meat and housing under control ahead of a once-a-decade power transition that begins later this year." Li think the downward trend will likely be unchanged. 12 (The Telegraph.co. and while it does.htm ) What worries Chinese economic planners considering these fixes is that rather than just slow down and control growth. which don't want them and can't handle them. “Chinese inflation might be out of control”.telegraph.inflation.9pc. Tokyo fell 1. Pakistan for Kashmir.

'It has the chance 30 years from now of being a bigger economic power than China. causing imports of all kinds to leap by 172 percent to $6 trillion in those nations between 2000 and 2007. The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. orange juice and sugar. believes Brazil ticks all the right boxes. Developing nations provide materials. "The penchant to consume is gaining traction globally.' Zell told the Milken Institute Global Conference. chief market strategist at Bank of America Corp. if the expectations of future trade decline . which in turn returns the favor. Legal and Political Perspectives. P.4 percent in 2007 . ‘Diversionary theory’ suggests that. on the systemic level. most notably in developing nations. 1995). The growing incomes and rising opportunities for people in Brazil and other commodity-rich countries have raised living standards and enabled consumers to purchase more from abroad. 'I'd buy Brazil. Second. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that ‘future expectation of trade’ is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavious of states. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict.KY 1NC Brazil Turn High food prices key to Brazil’s economy Patrice Hill. on a dyadic level. With a recent major discovery of oil off the coast of Rio de Janiero.” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic.html Sam Zell. Alternatively. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Department of Defense. As such. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. Hess. 03 May 2008. sitting . and array of crops and natural resources has made it largely self-sufficient. 2002. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon. Brazil's economy expanded by 5. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions." he said. Nuclear war Royal 10 Jedediah Royal. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown.propertywire. soybeans. Seperately. They write." Brazil is key to the global economy Property Wire. 213-215 Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. exogenous shocks such as economic crisis could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. the likelihood for conflict increases. However. “Brazil tipped to be major world economic power. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defense behavior of interdependent states. 2008. (Blomberg & Hess. Brazil's record commodity exports have bolstered its revenues and reserves to the point that it shed its external debts and became a net creditor to the world in January. "Going to the mall on Saturday afternoon is just as popular in Bangkok and Sao Paulo as it is in Boston and San Antonio. 89) Economic decline has been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg.S. Copeland’s (1996. chief executive of Chicago Tribune and chairman and president of Equity Group Investments LLC.' Goldman Sachs is also tipping Brazil for big things although on a longer timescale than Zell. & Weerapana. highly-trained work force. Crisis could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. said Joseph P. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. Goldsmith and Brauer. the Latin American giant whose exports of everything from beef to oranges have turned it into an economic force to contend with this decade. “Economic Integration. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. Moreover. dyadic and national levels. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflict self-reinforce each other. Several notable contributions follow.the fastest rate in three years . June 2. He said Brazil's large population of 180 million people. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. 1999). The surge in food prices after years of stagnation has been especially kind to Brazil. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson’s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U. p. 2004). Furthermore. “High prices not all bad. 2010. iron-ore. some analysts think Brazil may soon become a major exporter of oil as well.com/news/southamerica/brazil-tipped-to-be-major-world-economic-power-20080503906.a fitting symbol for the country's meteoric rise. medium and small powers. Quinlan. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations . The Washington Times.” http://www. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. The investment bank believes Brazil is on course to be the 5th largest economy in the world by 2050. particularly during periods of economic downturn.” LexisNexis Brazil's star rising Perhaps the most notable rising star among developing countries getting a lift from the commodities boom is Brazil. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. prompting Wall Street ratings agencies to raise the nation's credit rating above junk status . ed. First. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. which at the turn of the decade was a debt-ridden ward of the International Monetary Fund. Third.and its exports have tripled since 2003 amid booming global demand for steel.

DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. dyadic and national levels. recent economic scholarship positively correlated economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. Hess. . whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. In summary. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. Wang (1996). and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. Gelpi (1997). Miller (1999).KY governments have increase incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a ‘rally around the flag’ effect. and Blomberg. This implied connection between integration. and thus weak Presidential popularity. DeRouen (1995). are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. crisis and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economicsecurity debate and deserves more attention.

at this moment that inflation continues to slow and move toward the target” Tombini said.” Tombini said.php?id=674707 SAO PAULO.com/bernama/v6/newsworld. .75% in the first quarter of 2012 from a year earlier. when Brazil posted its weakest year-over-year economic performance since the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. its worst performance since a 1. President Dilma Rousseff’s administration has reduced the benchmark interest rate to a record low. he said.5% inflation target. the national statistics agency said. down from 7. June 21 (BERNAMA-NNN-MERCOPRESS) – Brazil’s economy will be expanding in the beginning of next year at the fastest pace since the last quarter of 2010. Growth will accelerate to a 4% pace in the last quarter of this year. Tombini said at an event in Sao Paulo. spurring a rebound from the first quarter.bernama.99% in the 12 months through May. “Cosumption is what will propagate growth. cut taxes and taken measures to boost credit in a bid to shore up economic growth. according to the statistics agency. said central bank President Alexandre Tombini .47% contraction in the third quarter of 2009.5% in the first quarter of 2013 from a year earlier. “Important stimulus measures that have already been introduced haven’t fully taken hold yet.KY 2NC Brazil Turn---UQ Brazil’s economy is growing Bernama 6/21 Malaysian National News Agency 2012 “Brazil’s Central Bank Forecast Strong Rebound In 2013” http://www. Record low unemployment will help sustain domestic demand. The world’s biggest emerging economy after China will grow more than 4. Inflation slowed to 4. Tombini said Brazil has room to boost economic growth by fuelling consumption without threatening its 4. stimulating new private investments that will support sustainable growth over the next years. “It’s import to highlight.” The economy expanded 0.31% in Sept. bankruptcy in 2008.

However. standard deviation or global beta) but the rate of expansion in the main stock index is still quite remarkable.Copenhagen Business School. Obviously. Bretton Woods II/global imbalances. Brazil's economy represents an excellent point of departure for the evaluation of many highly strung discourses in the context of the global economy and her financial markets.enough to supply every refinery in the U. Petrobras is rumored to be hawking as much as 80% of global capacity as a function of the company's demand for deep drilling rigs and given the fact that these things don't exactly come off the shelf with the same ease as flat screens it will take some time for supply to respond to the increased demand thus pushing up rent for these vessels. global inflation. Perhaps the most telling sign of Brazil's increasing status as a global force to be reckoned with was the recent announcement by Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP) of the discovery of a new oil field (Carioca) which potentially holds as much as 33 billion barrels of oil . rice. I would not want to take anything away from GS here but simply note that the BRIC narrative is not exactly fitting for what is happening in the global economy. “Brazil's Economy . while at the same time trying to untangle (as I have tried so many times before) some of the above mentioned areas of discussion and debate in the context of the global economy and Brazil. soya. as originally coined by Goldman Sachs. May 20. Petrobras thus projects investments to the tune of 112 billion USD between 2008 and 2012 which. Soon in fact China may join Russia's side of the fence if the inflation bonfire currently experienced proves inextinguishable.S. it is difficult to make solid conclusions solely on the basis of growth figures but as can readily be observed Brazil is moving up in the world. It is indeed true that the four economies are amongst the fastest growing economies of the world but they are very difficult in terms of structural setup which tends to blur the analysis. and its (alleged) repository of beautiful women but also because of the position it commands in the global economy. iron ore etc but now also the black gold. for six years . Thus assured of Brazil's current economic potential we should take a few steps back and have a look at the historical economic performance of Brazil. oranges. Extraordinary evidence of this was delivered in the context of Petrobras' demand for the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to put action behind the recent discoveries.com/2008/05/brazils-economy-not-emerging-anymore.g. The inflation figure also shows that almost a decade's worth of rampant inflation has now receded to much more comfortable levels. Petrobras (Petroleo Brasileiro SA) is not sitting idle and the effects of Brazil's oil discoveries are already rippling through the market.better positioned than China Claus Vistesen. beef. if realized. In many ways. the latter topic being the focus of this note.making it the third-largest oil field ever discovered (only Saudi Arabia's Ghawar and Kuwait's Burgan fields are bigger . not only because of its fabulous nature. such examples are not kosher as we are not looking at risk (e. even border lining on a bubble if you look at the growth rate alone. This new found oil prowess even prompted the president Lula da Silva recently to suggest that Brazil enter OPEC. how it got to where it is today and where it is likely to go in the future? First. Of course. As for the allure of Brazilian asset markets the last figure just about sums it up. . macroeconomist.this is very likely to fast forward Brazil rapidly up through the ranks of global oil producing nations.KY 2NC Brazil Turn---KT Econ Brazil’s economy is key to the global economy.html Brazil is interesting. as Edward also hints in a recent article the oil discoveries mentioned above represent a good initial image of Brazil's growing role in the global economy. Such oil discoveries come at a near-perfect time for Brazil who thus seems set not only to enjoy the upward march of commodities such as sugar. Specifically. Over the three year period a US investor investing 1 mill USD the 16th of May 2005 would have been able to walk away with just shy of 4. the figures for PPP adjusted GDP are interesting since they show how Brazil is steadily and unrelentlessly creating an ever larger share of global GDP. and China on one side and Russia on the other. its rhythmic and musical heritage. are sure to calm down even the most careful treasurer in the Brazilian finance ministry. 2008. and global liquidity/SWFs just to name a few. and could itself produce output at the not to be sneezed at rate of a million barrels a day . to some extent shared by the other usual suspects who make up the notorious BRIC group. Consequently.5 mill USD the corresponding date 2008 (note that the exchange rate is with our US friend here too).blogspot. This performance is. I would distinguish between Brazil. the set up of a proper supply chain in the context of oil production takes time and it will take at least one year before we see the first barrels rolling in from Tupi not to speak of Carioca. Especially. while Burgan is claimed to have up to 72 billion).which has an estimated reservoir of between 5 and 8 billion barrels of oil.Not Emerging Anymore?” http://globaleconomydoesmatter. These discourses include the debate on decoupling/re-coupling.Ghawar reputedly holds as much as 83 billion barrels of crude. Coupled with the discovery last year of the Tupi field . India. of course. I will try to present an argument to explain why it is that I am so very constructive on the upside potential for Brazil's economy. why not take a glance at some charts? It does not take much of a macroeconomist to see how the stories above tell a story of rapid economic development. In what follows. Of course.

growing sectors will lose steam. Retail sales barely rose in February and March.7 percent. Other emerging markets that have been powering the world economy since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.html) Brazil’s economy grew less than analysts expected in the first quarter. said by telephone from New York before the report was released. Economists in the latest weekly central bank survey cut their forecast for 2012 growth for the third straight week to 2. Weaker Brazil Economy Raises Doubts About Credit-Led Growth. they forecast the second-largest developing economy after China will grow less than 3 percent for the second consecutive year in 2012. the firm said. Well Fargo pinned much of the problem on a plunge in the South American giant’s farming and cattle industries. Traders are projecting that central bank President Alexandre Tombini will reduce the target lending rate to as low as 7. 2012. is a particular risk to the housing market. Consumer-led growth model running out of steam – hurts their economy Colitt 6/1 (Raymond.58 per dollar to $1. The best performer in Brazil: government spending.5 percent expansion. in 2008 are also losing steam. the government has abandoned its goal of boosting growth to 4.9 trillion in losses in world stock markets since May. which increased 1. which grew by 43 percent over the past 12 months. particularly those in lower-income brackets. That means the public sector is preventing an even worse slowdown. Government figures show g Brazil’s economy grew only . according to Wells Fargo. as a weakening global economy cuts into demand.98`.bloomberg.S. Growth in the first three months of the year was lower than expected by all but one of 50 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. a Sao Paulo-based economic consulting firm. reinforcing signs that its consumer-led growth model.2 percent in the first quarter and 0. compared with an average 10.1031340 Brazil's real fell to a one-week low and yields on interest-rate futures contracts dropped after reports showed the nation's economic growth was slower than forecast. the futures yields indicate.99 percent. compared to a meager 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011. are over-indebted. is faltering even as the government cuts taxes and lowers borrowing costs to stoke spending by the 40 million Brazilians who rose out of poverty from 2003-2011. Gross domestic product expanded 0.com/2012/06/04/2832867/brazilian-economy-losing-steam. http://www. Brazilian econ sucks Bloomberg 6/4 “Brazil’s economic growth slows” http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/brazil-s-economic-growth-slows-1. Brazilian economy losing steam. is running out of steam. India reported first quarter growth of 5. whose median forecast was for a 0. 2012. “Brazil had a great decade and now it’s going into a slowdown. Manufacturing continues to grow. A slowdown in mortgage lending. Brazil’s economy has slowed considerably in recent months.9 percent for all U. In a report issued Monday.5 percent.2 percent in the first quarter of 2012. Debt Burden Nearly a quarter of Brazilian households. causing $3. according to MB Associados. . a magnet for investment over the past decade.com/news/2012-06-01/weakening-brazil-economy-raises-doubts-about-credit-ledgrowth. “The economy is stuck. its longest losing streak since February 2009. chairman of Marketfield Asset Management. China this year will expand 8.html) The Western Hemisphere’s economic darling may be losing its shine. trailing the rest of Latin America. the strategy pursued by two successive presidents.2 percent. while vehicle sales fell 11 percent in April as the default rate among tapped-out consumers rose to 5. While economists expect the pace of growth to accelerate in coming months. As Europe’s debt crisis has deepened. The MSCI Brazil Consumer Discretionary Index of construction and retail companies has plunged 13 percent this year compared with a 5 percent fall for the Bovespa (IBOV) stock index. A slowing economy has sent the real down 21 percent against the dollar since the summer — from 1. the national statistics agency said in a report today.” Italo Lombardi. Consumer spending grew by 1 percent in the first quarter. “People owe a lot and own too much stuff. the least in nine years.” BRICS Faltering Investors are concerned that some of Brazil’s fastest.5 percent from last year’s 2.” Michael Shaoul. The real fell for a third straight month in May. its slowest pace in 13 years. That means they spend more than 30 percent of total income on servicing debt. but the gains are slowing.miamiherald. households.3 percent yesterday. Shaoul said.8 percent.75 per cent by the end of August. according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.KY 2AC Brazil Turn Brazilian economy slowing Hanks 6/5 (Douglas. http://www. a Latin America economist at Standard Chartered Bank. according to the latest statistics. Consumer demand driven by credit expansion.8 percent from the same period a year ago.

3 per cent median projection. “Now we have diversified. Like other emerging countries that learned the bitter lessons of the 1990s. extending their weekly decrease to 29 basis points.KY said by phone from New York. the weakest level since May 24.” The real declined 0.23 per cent.S. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in fact felt confident enough Friday to take a few pokes at the United States. They are at the vanguard of foreign companies rushing in to position themselves for what many see as a structural change in Brazil’s economy. more diversified and better able to withstand global shocks – including the economic ups and downs of its powerful neighbor to the north. .04 per centage point. falling short of the 1. not mine. Baosteel of China and Dongkuk of South Korea. two other international steel companies.2 per cent in the first quarter from the previous three months.” Brazil’s growing appeal to investors from around the world is a convincing endorsement of his confidence. Gross domestic product grew 0. Brazil got pneumonia. appliances.6 per cent this week and 6. few here seemed too concerned .S. to 8. Ask [President] Bush about the crisis because it’s his.com/2008/sep/22/world/fg-brazil22 9/22 But as the U.5 per cent in May. housing and public works. Brazilian economy is resilient LA Times 8 “Brazil unfazed by U. according to Lombardi. financial system seemed to teeter on collapse. ” Lula said at a gathering in the northern city of Mossoro. we don’t depend so much on one or two countries… . They are investing to produce steel for export to Asian markets – but also to supply Brazilian manufacturers struggling to meet accelerating domestic demand for motor vehicles. already underway.0401 per US dollar after touching 2. “A few years ago. Brazil's economy expanded 0.5 per cent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. centers on the emergence of a middle class. That change. saying in effect that in terms of financial crises. “The GDP data reinforce the trend of the central bank to cut rates. In addition to Germany’s ThyssenKrupp. are building multibillion-dollar steel plants in partnership with Brazilian iron ore producer Vale. Brazil’s economy is much stronger this time around. It fell 2. The worsening global outlook and speculation that Brazil's central bank will make deeper cuts in borrowing costs helped drive the real's depreciation. or 0. the shoe is on the other – meaning American – foot.latimes.8 per cent from a year earlier. booming consumption and reduced poverty. if the United States coughed. Yields on the interest-rate futures contract due in January 2014 fell 4 basis points. compared with the 0.9 per cent to 2. market crisis” http://articles.0447.

More recently. when the Arab Spring began. and Africa. some have argued that the upheavals in the Middle East have their roots in high food prices.KY 2NC Arab Spring Scenario High food prices key to Arab Spring revolts Senator Richard Lugar 11 “ADDRESS AT THE NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION” Congressional Press Release Dec 13 lexis In recent years. an index of global food prices had reached a record high. even higher than in 2008. An article in Foreign Affairs magazine earlier this year noted that a list of the world`s major wheat importers in 2010 includes of number of Middle Eastern countries where governments are fragile or have already fallen. sometimes quite violent. there were food riots. in 15 countries in Asia. Libya and Tunisia. Following the self-immolation death of a Tunisian produce vendor. the Middle East. By one count. The first was in 2008. Yemen. Algeria. the subsequent pro-democracy demonstrations included protestors waiving baguettes because grain prices had reached intolerably high levels. Latin America. Morocco. when a spike in global food prices sparked disturbances in many countries around the globe. we have seen two clear examples of how hunger can lead to instability and conflict. . I believe it is more than a coincidence that in December 2010. They include Egypt.

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