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Black Box Thinking, Matthew Syed

 p. 80: ‘When we are confronted with evidence that challenges our deeply held beliefs we are
more likely to reframe the evidence than we are to alter our beliefs. We simply invent new
reasons, new justifications, new explanations. Sometimes we ignore the evidence altogether.’
o ‘What is important for our purposes, however, is not whether the Iraq intervention
was right or wrong, but how different people responded to the new
evidence…According to a Knowledge Networks poll published in October 2003,
more than half of Republicans, who had voted for George W. Bush, simply ignored it.
They said that they believed the weapons had been found.’
 p. 102: ‘If it is intolerable to change your mind, if no conceivable evidence will permit you to
admit your mistake, if the threat to ego is so severe that the reframing process has taken on a
life of its own, you are effectively in a closed loop. If there are lessons to be learned, it has
become impossible to acknowledge them, let alone engage with them.’

McKinsey & Company, ‘Why diversity matters’ (2015)


- Companies in the top quartile for racial and ethnic diversity are 35 percent more likely to
have financial returns above their respective national industry medians.
- Companies in the top quartile for gender diversity are 15 percent more likely to have financial
returns above their respective national industry medians.
- Companies in the bottom quartile both for gender and for ethnicity and race are statistically
less likely to achieve above-average financial returns, i.e. bottom-quartile companies are
lagging rather than merely not leading.
- In the UK, greater gender diversity on the senior-executive team corresponded to the highest
performance uplift in the data set of McKinsey. For every ten percent increase in gender
diversity, earnings before interest and taxes rose by 3.5%.
- ‘More diverse companies…are better able to win top talent and improve their customer
orientation, employee satisfaction, and decision making, and all that leads to a virtuous
cycle of increasing returns.’

McKinsey & Company, ‘Delivering through diversity’ (2018)


- Companies in the top quartile for gender diversity are 21% more likely to experience above-
average profitability than companies in the fourth quartile.
- Companies in the top quartile for ethnic and cultural diversity are 33% more likely to
outperform a company in the fourth quartile on EBIT margin.
- Gender diversity is correlated with both profitability and value creation. As well as 21%
likelihood of outperforming fourth-quartile industry peers on EBIT margin, more gender
diverse companies also had a 27% likelihood of outperforming companies on long-term
value creation.

- For gender, the executive team shows the strongest correlation. Having gender diversity
on executive teams specifically is shown to be consistently positively correlated with higher
profitability.

- Ethnic and cultural diversity is correlated with profitability. Companies with the most
ethnically diverse executive teams – not only with respect to absolute representation but
also a variety or mix of ethnicities – are 33% more likely to outperform their peers on
profitability.
- Ethnic and cultural diversity on executive teams is low. In the UK, 22% of university
students identify as black and minority ethnic, but only 8% of UK executives do.

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