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© Markit Economics Limited 2012
News Release
Purchasing Managers’ Index
®
MARKET SENSITIVE INFORMATION
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 09:00 (UK Time), 3 December 2012
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
®
– final data
Downturn extends into sixteenth month, though rate of decline eases
Data collected 12–23 November.
Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 46.2 in November (flash estimate also 46.2)
Downturn in output moderates, but manufacturers still face falling order inflows
Weak demand and spare capacity leads to widespread job losses
Manufacturing PMI
®
(overall business conditions)
3035404550556065
1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, sa, 50 = no change
Source: Markit.
The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector eased in November, as the rates of contraction in output, new orders and employment all slowed. At 46.2, up from 45.4 in October, the seasonally adjusted Markit
Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
®
rose to an eight-month month high and was unchanged from the earlier flash estimate. The PMI has signalled a deterioration in manufacturing business conditions in each of the past 16 months. Contractions were signalled for almost all of the nations covered by the survey, Ireland being the sole exception. Rates of decline eased in Germany, France, Spain, Austria and Greece, with the extent of the moderation in Austria particularly marked. Italy and the Netherlands saw steeper rates of contraction, but Greece nonetheless remained bottom of the PMI league table.
Countries ranked by Manufacturing PMI
®
(Nov.)
Ireland 52.4 4-month high Austria 49.3 5-month low Netherlands 48.2 6-month low Germany 46.8 2-month high Spain 45.3 15-month high Italy 45.1 3-month low France 44.5 3-month high Greece 41.8 2-month high
35404550556065
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2
GermanyFranceItalySpainNetherlands AustriaIrelandGreeceManufacturing PMI, sa, 50 = no change
Source: Markit.
Manufacturing
production
contracted for the ninth successive month in November, although the rate of decline was the weakest since April of this year. Output rose at consumer goods producers, but fell in both the capital and intermediate goods sectors. Companies are facing reduced levels of new work from domestic markets and lower exports. However, the rates of contraction in both
total new orders
and
new export business
eased to eight-month lows. New export orders declined for the seventeenth successive month, largely due to reduced demand from within the euro area and weaker global market conditions. Reductions were reported in all nations bar the Netherlands and Ireland. The steepest declines were again seen in Greece and Germany,
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© Markit Economics Limited 2012
despite the rate of contraction easing to an eight-month low in Germany. Excess capacity remained present in the Eurozone manufacturing sector in November, as
backlogs of work
fell for the eighteenth month in a row. The combination of weak demand and spare capacity led to further job cuts.
Employment
fell for the tenth straight month, albeit to a slightly lesser degree than in October, with further losses reported in almost all of the nations covered. Only the Netherlands saw a steeper rate of decline during November, as the pace of job losses eased in Germany, France, Spain, Austria and Greece. For Germany, the rate decline was only marginal. The latest reduction in payroll numbers also reflected continued cost caution at manufacturers, as were further depletions of both
inventories of purchases
and
finished products
. By far the steeper decline was signalled for pre-production stocks, as
purchasing activity
was cut back markedly. Input buying volumes decreased for the seventeenth successive month, with the rate of decline much sharper than the survey average. Average
input prices
rose for the third successive month in November. The rate of inflation eased to its weakest during this period, however, and remained slower than that seen at the start of the year. Although costs continued to rise, average
selling prices
fell, reflecting weak demand and ongoing strong competition. The rate of at which prices were cut remained only minor, however.
253035404550556065'06'07'08'09'10'11'12-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0Industrial productionexcl. constructionPMI Output IndexMarkit Eurozone PMI Output IndexEurostat, monthly % changeSources: Markit,
Comment:
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit
said:
“The November PMI indicated that manufacturing conditions deteriorated at the slowest rate for eight months, but the downturn clearly remains severe. The ongoing steep pace of manufacturing decline suggests that the region’s recession will have deepened in the final quarter of the year, extending into a third successive quarter. With official data lagging the PMI, the rate of GDP decline is likely to have gathered pace markedly on the surprisingly modest 0.1% decline seen in the third quarter. “The picture is nevertheless starting to brighten somewhat, with the PMI appearing to have bottomed out back in July. Production and employment look set to fall at reduced rates in coming months as export demand slowly revives in markets such as the US and Asia. “However, the ongoing uncertainty caused by the region’s debt crisis means business confidence clearly remains fragile and companies continue to focus on tight cost control, meaning any robust recovery still looks a long way off and prone to a set-back if the crisis worsens.”
-Ends-
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© Markit Economics Limited 2012
For further information, please contact:
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist Rob Dobson, Senior Economist Telephone +44-20-7260-2329 Telephone +44-1491-461-095 Mobile +44-779-5555-061 Mobile +44-7826-913-863 Email chris.williamson@markit.com Email rob.dobson@markit.com
Caroline Lumley, Director, Corporate Communications Telephone +44-20-7260-2047 Mobile +44-781-581-2162 Email caroline.lumley@markit.com
Note to Editors:
The Eurozone Manufacturing
PMI
®
(
Purchasing Managers' Index
®
) is produced by Markit and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of around 3,000 manufacturing firms. National data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece. These countries together account for an estimated 90% of Eurozone manufacturing activity. The final Eurozone Manufacturing
PMI
follows on from the flash estimate which is released a week earlier and is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total
PMI
survey responses each month. The November flash was based on 88% of the replies used in the final data. The average differences between the flash and final
PMI
index values (final minus flash) since comparisons were first available in January 2006 are as follows (differences in absolute terms provide the better indication of true variation while average differences provide a better indication of any bias): Average Average difference Index difference in absolute terms Eurozone Manufacturing
PMI
®
0.0 0.2 The
Purchasing Managers’ Index
(
PMI
) survey methodology has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries (including the European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest rate decisions.
PMI
surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies. Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. Historical data relating to the underlying (unadjusted) numbers, first published seasonally adjusted series and revised data are available to subscribers from Markit. Please contact economics@markit.com.
About Markit
Markit is a leading, global financial information services company with over 2,300 employees. The company provides independent data, valuations and trade processing across all asset classes in order to enhance transparency, reduce risk and improve operational efficiency. Its client base includes the most significant institutional participants in the financial marketplace. For more information, see www.markit.com.
About PMIs
Purchasing Managers’ Index
®
(PMI
®
)
surveys are now available for 32 countries and also for key regions including the Eurozone. They are the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics.
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®
and
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®
are registered trade marks of Markit Economics Limited. Markit and the Markit logo are registered trade marks of Markit Group Limited.