Lighthouse Investment Management
How the market works - Time dependency of bull markets - January 17, 2013 Page 1
How the market works
"Time dependency of bull markets"
Contents
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 2Bull market duration ..................................................................................................................................... 3Bear market duration .................................................................................................................................... 6Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................... 8
Lighthouse Investment Management
How the market works - Time dependency of bull markets - January 17, 2013 Page 2
Summary
Stock market performance during bull markets is mainly (89%)explained by the duration of the bull market (defined as an uptrendwithout any pull-backs of 20% or more).
Lighthouse Investment Management
How the market works - Time dependency of bull markets - January 17, 2013 Page 3
Bull market duration
I came across this chart via Barry Ritholtz ("The Big Picture"-blog, FusionIQ):Nice, but what about performance?So I looked at the duration of bullmarkets, defined as not interruptedby a 20%+ decline (which would be abear market) and the correspondingperformance:
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