Who is right about measles - vaccine sceptics or proponents?
Measles data 1940 to 2008Comments
NotificationsTotalDeathsDeaths %
1940409,5218570.211941409,7151,1450.281942286,3414580.161943376,1047730.211944158,4792430.151945446,7967290.161946160,4022040.131947393,7876440.161948399,6063270.081949385,9353070.081950367,7252210.061951616,1823170.051952389,5021410.0419535450502420.041954146,995450.031955693,8031740.031956160,556280.021957633,678940.011958259,308490.021959539,524980.021960159,364310.021961763,5311520.021962184,895390.021963601,2551270.021964306,801730.021965502,2091150.021966343,642800.021967460,407990.021968236,154510.021969142,111360.031970307,408420.011971135,241280.021972145,916290.021973152,578330.021974109,636200.021975143,072160.01197655,502140.031977173,361230.011978124,067200.02197977,363170.021980139,487260.02198152,979150.03198294,195130.011983103,700160.02
Vaccine sceptics suggestmeasles cases have decreasedat a rate corresponding toimprovements in sanitaryconditions and nutrition.They also claim that thedecrease in notifications of measles cases over time is notas steep as the data shows. Itis not as steep mainly due to:- overdiagnosis of measlesprior to the introduction of the vaccine (in 1966) and todiagnosis by laboratorytesting (from 1996), and to- underdiagnosis of measlesafter the introduction of thevaccine up to laboratorytesting (1966 to 1996).Sceptics say diagnosesmethods tilt the data in favourof vaccine proponents(however consciously thishappens). Well, coulddiagnoses methods havesomething to do with thedecline?Two observations mightsupport that diagnosesmethods play some role:- during II World War andimmediately after, reportedcases were much fewer thanin the 1950s. Could that bedue to less stringent reportingunder/just after the war?- in 1996 there is a quite sharpdrop in notifications. Couldthat be due to introduction of diagnosis by laboratorytesting?You can argue both ways: Yes,the sharp decline in cases is
198462,079100.02198597,408110.01* 2008 is provisional data198682,054100.01198742,15860.01198886,001160.02198926,22230.01199013,30210.0119919,68010.01199210,26820.0219939,61240.04199416,37500.0019957,44710.0119965,61400.0019973,96230.0819983,72830.0819992,43830.1220002,37810.0420012,25010.0420023,23200.0020032,48800.0020042,35610.0420052,08900.0020063,70510.0320073,67010.0320085,08820.04Source: Office for National Statistics
ue to te vaccine; or no, tesharp decline is the result of poor diagnoses methods,meaning that the actualdecline is much more smoothand "natural".Note, by the way, the declinein deathrate (deaths perhundred notifications).Sceptics would say that thisdecline also reflects changesin diagnosis methods overtime. The more correctdiagnosis, the lower the deathrate is.So, what do you think?posted by Hans andersenemail: hgna@icloud.com
