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 What If?
"Every step that you take Could be your biggest mistake It could bend or it could break But that's the risk that you take."  —
Coldplay, "What If?"
"Two questions form the foundation of all novels: 'What if?' and 'What next?'... Every novel begins with the speculative question, What if 'X' happened? That's how you start." —
Tom Clancy
"There are known knowns: there are things we know that we know.There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know.But there are also unknown unknowns — there are things we do not know we don't know." —
Donald Rumsfeld, Fmr. US Secretary of Defense
"You see, the what ifs are as boundless as the stars." —
Sally Gardner, "Maggot Moon"
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THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO
Hmmm...
A walk around the fringes of nance
By Grant Williams
15 JULY 2013
 
 3
THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO
Hmmm...
15 JULY 2013
Things That Make You Go
 Hmmm...
 
A few weeks ago, I put a chart with which I am acutely familiar up on my Bloomberg. It is a chart I have studied every single day for over a decade, so by now I know pretty much every dip, every rally, and every sideways channel that makes up this particular pattern.I remember where I was when the big moves took place, and I recall with great clarity my varying degrees of comprehension and incredulity over every meaningful change in direction.I have lived every Golden Cross and died every Death Cross, cheered every bottoming pattern, and despaired each time the chart patterns signaled a breakdown in an upward trend; but above all, I have continued to remorselessly reassess my view of the investment case for this particular instrument, looking for signs — not evident in the charts — that would suggest it had run its course.As I stared at the chart again, almost absentmindedly, I put two vertical lines on it, one representing August 17, 2011, and one that marked January 14, 2013; and suddenly, a concept that had been gnawing away at me for a while crystallized in my mind as those two lines pulled in a whole bunch of known knowns, known unknowns, and even a couple of unknown unknowns. It was a truly Rumsfeldian moment.By now, there is no doubt a distinct three-way split amongst those who have made it all the way to the third paragraph of this week's TTMYGH. There are some new readers who are wondering what
asset the chart reected, as well as many who are already rolling their eyes and muttering to themselves "Really? Gold? AGAIN?" — and nally there are the overwhelming majority who have already scrolled to the "...and nally" page, chuckled at the cartoon, and moved on to more
edifying fare.
Yes, it's one of those weeks when I must ask your indulgence while I ramble on about a subject
close to my heart that has recently been a source of great frustration. And yes, it's gold — particularly, the bizarre price action of the last six months, which has run counter to most
logical assumptions, given the various macro factors bringing inuence to bear on the yellow
metal.Cyprus should have been a hugely positive tailwind for gold. But it wasn't. The ongoing money printing should have provided support for gold. But it hasn't. The talk of tapering should have had a minor but noticeable effect on gold, given its healthy recent correction. But it didn't. Sustained data suggesting a voracious appetite for the physical metal not only in Asia but in Western countries, too, should have led to a bounce on the COMEX. But it hasn't.
The whole thing is as bafing as Kim Kardashian's fame.
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