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Memo to: Oaktree ClientsFrom: Howard MarksRe: The Role of ConfidenceConfidence is generally defined as belief in one

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s ability to choose a course of action and executeon it. Although it

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s not part of the definitions I

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ve consulted, I think confidence also connotesoptimism (at least it does among investors). Finally, there

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s an element of certainty: beyond anoptimistic view of the future, there

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s conviction that view is correct.

Taken together, theingredients I see in confidence

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belief, optimism and certainty

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combine to create a feelingof well-being. Confident investors are sure big returns lie ahead.

The Confidence EffectThe so-called

“wealth effect” plays a

n important and well recognized part in the functioning of an economy. In short, when assets appreciate in value, the owners of those assets translate their increased wealth into increased spending. While at first glance this is unsurprising, it should benoted that this is true even if the appreciation is unrealized, and thus the increased wealth existssolely on paper. The relationship can be simply stated as follows: the richer people feel, themore they spend.Changes in confidence have an impact on behavior similar to the wealth effect. That

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s what thismemo is about.I have long been impressed by the role of confidence in an economy. In fact, I

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ve written in the past

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exaggerating only slightly

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that sometimes I think confidence is all that matters. Iconsider its impact to be significant, pervasive, self-reinforcing and self-fulfilling.The primary impact of confidence on the economy is simple.

If people think the economicfuture will be good, they

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ll spend and invest . . . thus things will be good.

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Consumers

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optimism will translate into incremental demand for goods, adding to GDP.

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Consumer buying will convince businesses to invest in expanded facilities and additionalworkers in order to keep up with growing demand.

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Businesses

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investment in plant and workers will add to GDP.

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Newly hired workers will have money to spend, and their buying will add further to thecycle.

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The reports of confidence-fueled increases in GDP and other positive mentions of theeconomy in the media will reinforce this virtuous circle of optimism: back to step one.So, just like the wealth effect, increased confidence makes people and businesses spend more,and this in turn cycles back into the economy.

Confidence leads to spending; spending

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strengthens the economy; and economic strength buttresses confidence. It

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s a circular, self-fulfilling prophesy.

Confidence can also fuel market movements. Belief that the price of an asset will rise causes people to buy the asset . . . making its price rise. This is another way in which confidence is self-fulfilling.Of course, the confidence that underlies economic gains and price increases only has an impactas long as it exists. Once it dies, its effect turns out to be far from permanent. As the economistHerb Stein sai

d, “

If something cannot go on forever, it

will stop.” This is certainly true for

confidence and its influence.Confidence Today

Back in September, I wrote a memo entitled “On Uncertain Ground.” It

began as follows:

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Theworld seems more uncertain today than at any other time in my life.

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I went on to review themany elements contributing to uncertainty. For the sake of completeness, I

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m going to restateand update my list. These are things I

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m asked about all the time. I don

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t recall another timewhen the list was as long:In the U.S.:

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Will the recovery from the recession of 2008

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long in the tooth but still halting andunsteady

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ever gain vitality? Today it seems we

’re experiencing “two steps forward,one step back,” as

positive reports are regularly mixed with disappointments. Further,even the improvements

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in areas like job creation, consumer confidence andmanufacturing output

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seem tepid rather than eye-popping. This is quite different fromthe recoveries of the last few decades.

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To what extent will the recovery be impaired by recent tax increases and the budget cuts

mandated by “sequestration”?

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When will sales increases overcome businesses

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resistance to spending on plant and personnel?

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How much longer will the Fed keep interest rates low? Three months? Three years? In perpetuity?

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What will happen when it no longer does? Will rates rise? How much? Will the effectof higher rates on the cost of financing purchases and investments be enough to slow theeconomy? And what will be the impact of higher rates on the government

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s cost of financing, and thus on the deficit?

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What are the implications of the fact that the Fed

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s balance sheet has swelled to over $3trillion? How does the Fed pay for the bonds it buys under QE? Will it have to pay thatmoney back? Will the Treasury have to pay off the Fed when the debt matures? Wherewill it get the money? And where will the money go? (Think about this for a minute: doyou feel you understand the workings of this process? Do you know anyone who does?)

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Will our economy ever get back to the higher growth rates of the late twentieth century,or will we be stuck in a slow-growth mode?

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Will “structural unemployment”

in the future remain stubbornly above the 5% or so of the last few decades?

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Will profit margins retreat from their current record levels, and if so, what will be theeffect on corporate profits?

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Longer term, can progress ever be made on cutting the budget deficit and reducing theunfunded entitlement obligations?

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What will be the social ramifications of slow growth, high unemployment and increasedincome disparity?

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Will the U.S. devalue the dollar, the usual path to dealing with excessive national debt?

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Will slow growth lead to Japan-style deflation? Or will high-volume money printing tomake it easier to repay the debt bring on chronic inflation? (The mere fact that intelligent people worry simultaneously about both these polar opposites is in itself an indicator of the high level of uncertainty that is present.)In Europe:

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Can the seeming downward spiral in peripheral Europe

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s economies be arrested?

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Can Europe

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s excessive indebtedness be brought down, and can the chronic deficits thatled to that level of indebtedness be trimmed through austerity?

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Will richer nations continue to support poorer without insisting on the latter applying painful austerity?

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In practical terms, can austerity be undertaken at a time of economic weakness? If austerity is continued, are recession, suffering and unrest unavoidable?

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Won

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t voters demand isolationism in the richer nations and relief from the pain of austerity in the poorer nations? Won

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t elected leaders offering anything else be ousted?

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Will the highly restrictive regulations and labor laws be eased so as to enable Europe tocompete on an equal footing with the rest of the world?

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Longer term, will the nations of Europe give a central body the control over economiesand financial institutions required for an effective economic union?

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Will UK voters vote in the coming referendum to stay in the European Union or leave?

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Will the EU remain intact? Is a political union in which actions require unanimoussupport practical? Can governance and coordination be improved?Regarding Leadership:

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Are there leaders

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anywhere in the world

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of the caliber we need to see us through theseuncertain times?

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Can officials who seek re-election first and foremost rise to the occasion and make thetough decisions needed to apply unpopular solutions to problems, rather than palliativeBand-Aids?

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Will the successors to Geithner and Bernanke prove up to the task of continuing therecovery while weaning the economy from ultra-low interest rates?

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Is it conceivable that America

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s elected leaders will create an environment in whichuncertainty over taxation, regulation and healthcare costs no longer discourages businesses from investing in plant and personnel?