L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
E󰁱󰁵󰁩󰁴󰁹 M󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 M󰁯󰁮󰁩󰁴󰁯󰁲 󰀭 D󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 2013 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 1
󰁅󰁱󰁵󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁍󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 󰁍󰁯󰁮󰁩󰁴󰁯󰁲 󰁄󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 󰀲󰀰󰀱󰀳
 
 
L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
E󰁱󰁵󰁩󰁴󰁹 M󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 M󰁯󰁮󰁩󰁴󰁯󰁲 󰀭 D󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 2013 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 2
Contents
I󰁮󰁴󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 .................................................................................................................................................. 3 P󰁥󰁲󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥: H󰁯󰁷 󰁴󰁯 󰁖󰁩󰁳󰁵󰁡󰁬󰁩󰁺󰁥 I󰁴 ................................................................................................................. 4 P󰁥󰁲󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥: N󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁮󰁡󰁬 󰁯󰁲 󰁒󰁥󰁡󰁬 ..................................................................................................................... 5 P󰁥󰁲󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥: 󰁔󰁨󰁥 I󰁭󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥 󰁯󰁦 󰁔󰁩󰁭󰁥 ......................................................................................................... 6 󰁖󰁡󰁬󰁵󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: P󰁲󰁩󰁣󰁥󰀭E󰁡󰁲󰁮󰁩󰁮󰁧󰁳 .............................................................................................................................. 8 󰁖󰁡󰁬󰁵󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: CAPE ............................................................................................................................................ 9 󰁖󰁡󰁬󰁵󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: CAPE H󰁩󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁧󰁲󰁡󰁭 ......................................................................................................................... 10 󰁖󰁡󰁬󰁵󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: CAPE E󰁮󰁴󰁲󰁹 󰁡󰁮󰁤 E󰁸󰁩󰁴 ................................................................................................................... 11 GDP 󰁡󰁮󰁤 P󰁲󰁯󰁦󰁩󰁴󰁳: 2 M󰁯󰁤󰁥󰁬󰁳 .......................................................................................................................... 12 GDP: C󰁯󰁭󰁰󰁯󰁮󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁳 󰁯󰁦 G󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 ..................................................................................................................... 13 GDP: E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 G󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 .......................................................................................................................... 14 GDP: C󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡󰁬 ................................................................................................................................................ 16 GDP: P󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁶󰁩󰁴󰁹 ........................................................................................................................................ 17 GDP: M󰁯󰁤󰁥󰁬 󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁳󰁵󰁳 󰁒󰁥󰁡󰁬󰁩󰁴󰁹 .......................................................................................................................... 18 C󰁯󰁲󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 P󰁲󰁯󰁦󰁩󰁴󰁳 󰀭 󰁔󰁨󰁥 K󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁣󰁫󰁩 E󰁱󰁵󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 .................................................................................................... 19 󰁗󰁡󰁲, I󰁮󰁦󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁓󰁴󰁯󰁣󰁫 M󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 ................................................................................................................. 26
 
 
L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
E󰁱󰁵󰁩󰁴󰁹 M󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 M󰁯󰁮󰁩󰁴󰁯󰁲 󰀭 D󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 2013 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 3
Introduction
󰁔󰁨󰁥 󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁣󰁫 󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴. 󰁓󰁯󰁵󰁲󰁣󰁥 󰁯󰁦 󰁵󰁮󰁫󰁮󰁯󰁷󰁮 󰁲󰁩󰁣󰁨󰁥󰁳 󰀭 󰁢󰁵󰁴 󰁮󰁯󰁴 󰁮󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁡󰁲󰁩󰁬󰁹 󰁦󰁯󰁲 󰁩󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳. 󰁓󰁯󰀭󰁣󰁡󰁬󰁬󰁥󰁤 "󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁦󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁡󰁬" 󰁩󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰁯󰁦󰁦󰁥󰁲 󰁴󰁯 󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥 󰁹󰁯󰁵󰁲 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁥󰁹. H󰁯󰁷󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁲, 󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁩󰁲 󰁦󰁥󰁥󰁳 󰁡󰁲󰁥 󰁢󰁡󰁳󰁥󰁤 󰁯󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁬󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁬 󰁯󰁦 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁴󰁳 󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁤, 󰁮󰁯󰁴 󰁰󰁥󰁲󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥. H󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁩󰁲 󰁧󰁯󰁡󰁬 󰁩󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁭󰁡󰁸󰁩󰁭󰁩󰁺󰁥 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁴󰁳, 󰁮󰁯󰁴 󰁰󰁥󰁲󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥, 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁰󰁲󰁥󰁹 󰁦󰁯󰁲 󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁢󰁥󰁨󰁡󰁶󰁥. 󰁙󰁯󰁵 󰁷󰁩󰁬󰁬 󰁮󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁲 󰁨󰁥󰁡󰁲 󰁡 󰁢󰁡󰁤 󰁷󰁯󰁲󰁤 󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁵󰁴 󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁣󰁫󰁳 󰁦󰁲󰁯󰁭 󰁡 󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁦󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁡󰁬 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁥󰁹 󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁲. I󰁦 󰁨󰁥 󰁷󰁡󰁳 󰁢󰁥󰁡󰁲󰁩󰁳󰁨, 󰁨󰁩󰁳 󰁦󰁩󰁮󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁩󰁡󰁬 󰁤󰁵󰁴󰁹 󰁷󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁲󰁥󰁱󰁵󰁩󰁲󰁥 󰁴󰁯 󰁳󰁥󰁬󰁬. H󰁯󰁷󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁲, 󰁣󰁨󰁡󰁲󰁧󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁡 󰁦󰁥󰁥 󰁯󰁮 󰁺󰁥󰁲󰁯󰀭󰁹󰁩󰁥󰁬󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁣󰁡󰁳󰁨 󰁬󰁹󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁯󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁳󰁩󰁤󰁥󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁳 󰁩󰁳 󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁢󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁹 󰁮󰁯󰁴 󰁯󰁫󰁡󰁹 󰁷󰁩󰁴󰁨 󰁩󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳. A󰁬󰁳󰁯, 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁢󰁹󰀭󰁬󰁡󰁷󰁳 󰁯󰁦 󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁹 󰁭󰁵󰁴󰁵󰁡󰁬 󰁦󰁵󰁮󰁤󰁳 󰁤󰁯 󰁮󰁯󰁴 󰁡󰁬󰁬󰁯󰁷 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁲 󰁴󰁯 󰁨󰁡󰁶󰁥 󰁣󰁡󰁳󰁨 󰁬󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁬󰁳 󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁶󰁥 5% 󰁯󰁦 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁴󰁳. H󰁥
󰁨󰁡󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁢󰁥 󰁩󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁥󰁤 󰁡󰁴 󰁬󰁥󰁡󰁳󰁴 󰀹󰀵󰀥 󰁡󰁴 󰁡󰁬󰁬 󰁴󰁩󰁭󰁥󰁳
. O󰁮 󰁯󰁮󰁥 󰁨󰁡󰁮󰁤, 󰁩󰁴 󰁩󰁳 󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁢󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁹 󰁲󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴 󰁴󰁯 󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁥󰁹 󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁲󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁣󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁯󰁮 󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁣󰁫 󰁰󰁩󰁣󰁫󰁩󰁮󰁧, 󰁮󰁯󰁴 󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 󰁴󰁩󰁭󰁩󰁮󰁧. D󰁩󰁦󰁦󰁥󰁲󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁣󰁡󰁳󰁨 󰁬󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁬󰁳 󰁷󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁭󰁡󰁫󰁥 󰁰󰁥󰁲󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥 󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁰󰁡󰁲󰁩󰁳󰁳󰁯󰁮 󰁤󰁩󰁦󰁦󰁩󰁣󰁵󰁬󰁴 󰁡󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁧 󰁰󰁥󰁥󰁲󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁯󰁢󰁳󰁣󰁵󰁲󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁥 '󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁬' 󰁳󰁫󰁩󰁬󰁬. O󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁯󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁲 󰁨󰁡󰁮󰁤, 󰁴󰁨󰁩󰁳 󰁰󰁵󰁴󰁳 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁯󰁮󰁵󰁳 󰁯󰁦 󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 󰁴󰁩󰁭󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁯 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁩󰁮󰁩󰁤󰁩󰁶󰁩󰁵󰁡󰁬 󰁩󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳. B󰁵󰁴 󰁷󰁨󰁹 󰁷󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁨󰁥 󰁢󰁥 󰁢󰁥󰁴󰁴󰁥󰁲 󰁳󰁵󰁩󰁴󰁥󰁤 󰁴󰁯 󰁤󰁥󰁣󰁩󰁤󰁥 󰁯󰁮 󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 󰁴󰁩󰁭󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 "󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁦󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁡󰁬󰁳"? D󰁩󰁤󰁮'󰁴 󰁨󰁥 󰁯󰁵󰁴󰁳󰁯󰁵󰁲󰁣󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁯󰁦 󰁨󰁩󰁳 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁥󰁹 󰁥󰁸󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁬󰁹 󰁢󰁥󰁣󰁡󰁵󰁳󰁥 󰁨󰁥 󰁤󰁯󰁥󰁳󰁮'󰁴 󰁦󰁥󰁥󰁬 󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁴󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥 󰁤󰁯󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁩󰁴 󰁨󰁩󰁭󰁳󰁥󰁬󰁦? 󰁔󰁨󰁥 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁥󰁹 󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁩󰁮󰁤󰁵󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁹 󰁷󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁬󰁩󰁫󰁥 󰁴󰁯 󰁨󰁡󰁶󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁩󰁲 󰁣󰁬󰁩󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁳' 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁴󰁳 󰁩󰁮󰁤󰁥󰁦󰁩󰁮󰁩󰁴󰁥󰁬󰁹, 󰁴󰁨󰁲󰁯󰁵󰁧󰁨 󰁢󰁵󰁬󰁬󰀭 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁢󰁥󰁡󰁲 󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴󰁳. 󰁒󰁩󰁤󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁷󰁡󰁶󰁥 󰁤󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁧󰁯󰁯󰁤 󰁴󰁩󰁭󰁥󰁳. A󰁮󰁤 󰁳󰁩󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁹 󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁴 "󰁮󰁯󰁢󰁯󰁤󰁹 󰁣󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁨󰁡󰁶󰁥 󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁥󰁳󰁥󰁥󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁩󰁳", "󰁷󰁥 󰁤󰁯󰁮'󰁴 󰁨󰁡󰁶󰁥 󰁡 󰁣󰁲󰁹󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁬 󰁢󰁡󰁬󰁬" 󰁯󰁲 "󰁩󰁴'󰁳 󰁴󰁯󰁯 󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁴󰁯 󰁳󰁥󰁬󰁬 󰁮󰁯󰁷" 󰁩󰁮 󰁣󰁡󰁳󰁥 󰁯󰁦 󰁡 󰁣󰁲󰁡󰁳󰁨. 󰁔󰁨󰁥󰁲󰁥 󰁭󰁵󰁳󰁴 󰁢󰁥 󰁡 󰁢󰁥󰁴󰁴󰁥󰁲 󰁷󰁡󰁹 󰁴󰁯 󰁩󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴. 󰁔󰁨󰁩󰁳 󰁰󰁵󰁢󰁬󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁴󰁲󰁩󰁥󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁳󰁳 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁦󰁯󰁬󰁬󰁯󰁷󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁱󰁵󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳: 1.
 
󰁗󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁫󰁩󰁮󰁤 󰁯󰁦 󰁲󰁥󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁮 󰁣󰁡󰁮 󰁢󰁥 󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁳󰁯󰁮󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁹 󰁥󰁸󰁰󰁥󰁣󰁴󰁥󰁤 󰁦󰁲󰁯󰁭 󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁣󰁫 󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 󰁩󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁳? I󰁳 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁳󰁵󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥? 2.
 
󰁗󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁫󰁩󰁮󰁤 󰁯󰁦 󰁳󰁩󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁥 󰁴󰁯󰁯󰁬󰁳 󰁥󰁸󰁩󰁳󰁴 󰁴󰁯 󰁴󰁥󰁬󰁬 󰁩󰁦 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁣󰁫 󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 󰁩󰁳 󰁣󰁨󰁥󰁡󰁰 󰁯󰁲 󰁥󰁸󰁰󰁥󰁮󰁳󰁩󰁶󰁥? 3.
 
A󰁲󰁥 󰁳󰁴󰁯󰁣󰁫 󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁴 󰁲󰁥󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁮󰁳 󰁭󰁥󰁡󰁮󰀭󰁲󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁮󰁧? 4.
 
A󰁲󰁥 󰁷󰁥 󰁧󰁯󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁴󰁯 󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁩󰁮󰁵󰁥 󰁴󰁯 󰁳󰁥󰁥 󰁳󰁩󰁭󰁩󰁬󰁡󰁲 󰁣󰁹󰁣󰁬󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁬 󰁦󰁬󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳 󰁩󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁦󰁵󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁥, 󰁯󰁲 󰁡󰁲󰁥 󰁷󰁥 󰁩󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁭󰁩󰁤󰁳󰁴 󰁯󰁦 󰁡 󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁡󰁬 󰁢󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁫? I 󰁷󰁩󰁬󰁬 󰁴󰁲󰁹 󰁴󰁯 󰁫󰁥󰁥󰁰 󰁴󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁧󰁳 󰁡󰁳 󰁳󰁩󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁥 󰁡󰁳 󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁢󰁬󰁥. F󰁩󰁮󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥 󰁤󰁯󰁥󰁳󰁮'󰁴 󰁨󰁡󰁶󰁥 󰁴󰁯 󰁢󰁥 󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁥󰁸 (󰁰󰁥󰁯󰁰󰁬󰁥 󰁭󰁡󰁫󰁥 󰁩󰁴 󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁥󰁸). A 󰁰󰁩󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁥 󰁳󰁡󰁹󰁳 󰁭󰁯󰁲󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁮 󰁡 󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁷󰁯󰁲󰁤󰁳 󰀭 I 󰁨󰁯󰁰󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁦󰁯󰁬󰁬󰁯󰁷󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁣󰁨󰁡󰁲󰁴󰁳 󰁨󰁥󰁬󰁰.