January 2014
Rehabilitating Portugal
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DISCLAIMERS
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TortusCapitalMasterFund,LPisshortcertainPortuguesesovereignbonds.ItispossiblethattherewillbedevelopmentsinthefuturethatcauseTortusfundstochangetheirpositionsregardingPortugalandpossiblyincrease,reduce,cover,disposeof,orchangetheformoftheirinvestmentinthesovereignbonds.Tortusdisclaimsanyobligationtonotifythemarketoranypartyofanysuchchanges.
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TheviewsexpressedinthisPresentationaresolelytheopinionsofTortusCapitalManagementLLC(“Tortus”).TheinformationandopinionsexpressedinthisPresentationaremadesolelyasofthedatelistedonthecoverpage,andaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeorupdate.
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TortusisnotobligatedtoandwillnotprovideanyupdatetothisPresentationevenifitislatershowntobeinaccurate.TotheextentthatyourelyonthisPresentationinconnectionwithanyinvestmentdecision,youdosoatyourownrisk.ThisPresentationisbeingprovidedinsummaryfashionanddoesnotpurporttobecomplete.
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TheanalysisandconclusionsofTortusregardingPortugaloritsbanksarebasedonpubliclyavailableinformation.Theanalysesprovidedincludecertainestimatesandprojectionspreparedwithrespectto,amongotherthings,thehistoricalandanticipatedperformanceoftheeconomy.Suchstatements,estimates,andprojectionsreflectvariousassumptionsbyTortusconcerninganticipatedresultsthatareinherentlysubjecttosignificanteconomic,andotheruncertaintiesandcontingenciesandhavebeenincludedsolelyforillustrativepurposes.Norepresentations,expressorimplied,aremadeastotheaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchstatements,estimatesorprojectionsorwithrespecttoanyothermaterialsherein.Actualresultsmayvarymateriallyfromtheestimatesandprojectedresultscontainedherein.
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ThestatementsTortusmakesinthePresentationarenotinvestmentadviceorarecommendationorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurities,includingbutnotlimitedtoPortuguesesovereigndebt.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Executive Summary4
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The Status Quo Is Not Sustainable10
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Portugal’s Sovereign Debt Is Not Sustainable31
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Portugal Already Benefits from Extraordinary Levels of Solidarity41
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Common Misconceptions50
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Rehabilitation Plan61
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