WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG
BACKGROUNDER
T
here are iiatis that ISIS is abut t auh it a ew esive i Iraq. ISIS pubishe phts f a miitary parae thruh the streets f Msu Jue 24, 2014 shwasi U.S. miitary equipmet, iui armre vehies a twe artiery systems.
1
ISIS reprtey exeute ather parae i Hawijah Jue 26, 2014.
2
These paraes may be a emstrati f fre t reifre their tr f these urba eters. They may as be a preue t ISIS trp mvemets, a it is imprtat t atiipate where ISIS may epy these fres frwar. Meawhie, ISIS as reewe the use f suiie bmbers i the viiity f Baha. A ISIS bmber with a suiie vest (SVEST) attake the Kahimiya shrie i rther Baha Jue 26, 2014,
3
e f the fur hy sites i Iraq that Ira a Shi’a miitias are mst ere t prtet. ISIS as irprate a SVEST it a mpex attak i Mahmuiyah, suth f Baha, Jue 25, 2014 i a ze primariy tre by the Iraqi Seurity Fres (ISF) a Shi’a miitias the ra frm Baha t Karbaa.
4
These attaks are emstratis that ISIS has ummitte fres i the Baha Bets that may be bruht t bear i ew esives. ISIS’s esive has t umiate, a the ISIS ampai fr Iraq is t ver. Rather, as Ramaa apprahes, their mai esive is ikey immiet.*
June 27, 2014
Jessica D. Lewis
The Isami State f Iraq a a-Sham (ISIS) is frmiabe, but it is as preitabe. ISIS has expse may f the re eemets f its stratey, a it is pssibe t atiipate their ext steps. ISW assesses with ee that ISIS’s urba esive beu i Msu has t umiate, a its ampai fr Iraq is t ver. ISIS’s ext urba bjetive wi ikey be t ear the Haitha-Ramai rrir a the Euphrates River i Abar.
5
ISIS’s utimate miitary bjetive i Iraq is ikey t estry the vermet i Baha. This bakruer wi assess ISIS’s ext steps i Iraq i iht f its braer stratei as. T s, the bakruer wi examie where ISIS ha miitary streth prir t the fa f Msu a ivetry its ummitte fres. Base up bservabe eemets f the ISIS stye f warfare, this bakruer wi bserve where ISIS may have heaquarters a hw ISIS has ikey ivie the ht i Iraq a Syria it setrs. It wi evauate ISIS’s iterim miitary bjetives i eah setr base bserve atis, beause ISIS’s stratey tiues t be arefu a eiberate.
ISIS STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
ISIS seeks t reate a Isami Emirate extei arss Iraq a Syria. This visi is expasiist, a it is prseute thruh miitary quest. ISIS’s ra stratey epes up miitary superirity t wrest tr f terrai frm mer states by vermi state seurity. The ISIS stye f warfare hybriizes terrrism, ueria warfare, a vetia warfare. The presee f the ast iiates that the ISIS ikey pssesses a are
ISIS BATTlE PlAn FoR BAgHdAd
f frmer Saam-era miitary ers wh kw the miitary terrai i Iraq as their w. The miitary ampai esi exhibite by ISIS ver the ast tw years
6
bears the siature f mutipe mmaers, thuh suessive ampais i Iraq have sistety emstrate spe, istributi, eepti, a timi as verarhi stratei harateristis. The i f ISIS’s reet urba ampai i Iraq expses their ikey ext steps. Whe fai suh a eemy, it is pruet t bei by assessi the pitia bjetives that the ISIS miitary ampai i Iraq must supprt:1. Permaety break w pitia buaries i Iraq, Syria, a the rei by utivati itis fr vermet faiure a/r setaria ivi war.2. Estabish the Isami Emirate by tri terrai arss Iraq a Syria, veri the ppuati withi, a efei aaist extera threats.3. Bri ike-mie pepe t ht asie a sette withi the Isami Emirate.4. Expa the territry f the Emirate a et it t the wier Musim mmuity, r the Ummah.
*
For more information on the current situation in Iraq, see ISW’s daily “Iraq Situation Report,” published at http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/.
WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG2
WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG2
WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG2
BAcKgRoUndER | ISIS BATTlE PlAn FoR BAgHdAd | JESSIcA d. lEWIS | JUnE 27, 2014
objetives 1 a 2 are hih ee assessmets base up hw ISIS has prseute its Iraq ampai sie aui the “Breaki the Was” ampai i Juy 2012. objetives 3 a 4 are preitive assessmets that erive frm a uerstai that ISIS is beai t the braer jihaist mmuity thruh suh meas as sia meia a its ew Eish-auae Isami State Reprt, a periia that emphasizes the iyi quaities f ife a verae i the Emirate rather tha sey the miitary vitries f ISIS.
7
ISIS ikey ites a wi set itis t expa its territry bey Iraq a Syria. ISIS wi as ikey prjet a eurae terrrist attaks utsie f the Mie East i rer t aim eaership ver the ba jihaist ause. Fr the purpses f evauati the ext steps f the ISIS miitary ampai, it is vita t reize that ISIS at pree with its Isami Emirate if the uitary state f Iraq sti stas. A survivi Iraqi state a rever its frmer streth a pse a existetia threat t ISIS if Iraq is awe t preserve its apita, its miitary, a its aiaes. ISIS ikey ites t esure Iraq’s permaet ijury, by estryi the Iraqi miitary i the viiity f Baha; by estryi the seat f vermet i Baha; by attaki re iterests f her aies; r by estryi the apita. destryi the seat f vermet i Baha is ikey the primary taret, thuh the thers may be pursue i supprt r juti. It is imprtat t te that the cui f Represetatives atheri sheue fr Juy 1, 2014 t frm Iraq’s ew vermet may represet a ceter f gravity taret that ISIS wi attempt t expit.
8
ISIS has ikey siere what itis wu traspire after suh a attak, shu they prve suessfu. The remats f Baha, diyaa, a Karbaa wu frm a ew brer exusi ze betwee ISIS a a ew Iraia prtetrate mprise f Iraq’s suther prvies. The ISIS rther brer may preserve Iraqi Kurista as a rther equivaet brer exusi ze separati ISIS frm Ira t the rth. ISIS wu ee t seure these zes thruh tiue esives. Aterativey, ISIS may try t uermie the efeses f Iraqi Kurista s it is er a miitary threat. ISIS wu as ee t maae ajaet frts a syhrize fr eet i Syria a ther states i the levat. Rather tha t hpe that ISIS at ahieve its bjetives, it is pruet t evauate whether they have the meas a the stratei auus t suee by attaki a estryi the Iraqi vermet i Baha. Whie this bakruer wi fus up the immiet threat f a ISIS attak up Baha, it is as eessary t rear the Syria frt as e that ISIS may prseute with ummitte miitary fres i deir ez-Zur, Raqqa, a Aepp. These fres rw strer as ISIS aquires mre repwer a mapwer thruh its battee vitries i Iraq.
9
likewise, as ISIS frmuates attak searis fr Baha, ther ISIS fres i the rth a east f Iraq wi ikey tiue t perate i their respetive zes.
ISIS MILITARY SECTORS IN IRAQ
A year befre ISIS emir Abu Bakr a-Bahai eare the expasi f the Isami State f Iraq it a-Sham, the Isami State f Iraq (ISI) ha reeerate the apaity t sustai a ati-wie ampai f Vehie-Bre Imprvise Expsive devie (VBIEd) attaks thruh ampe huma a materia resures. ISI eaership at that time raize VBIEds it waves f simutaeus attaks, emstrati eetive mma a tr ver a istribute ru fre. The VBIEd attaks etrate rst i easter Iraq, i the Hamri rie rrir eai t rther diyaa, emstrati a reewe presee i a histri supprt ze ear where Abu Musab a-Zarqawi ha bee kie i 2006.
10
The re miitary apaity f ISIS at this time was terrrism.ISIS as reeerate the apaity t exeute a mbie arms attak aaist a xe site, suh as a pris. I September 2012, ISIS ahieve its rst vitry this frt, breaki 38 frmer AQI eaers frm Tikrit Tasrat pris.
11
At the e f the “Breaki the Was” ampai i Juy 2013, the ewy expae ISIS suessfuy brke 500 prisers frm Abu ghraib pris.
12
The reease f mutipe eeratis f frmer AQI eaers, a as the eraphy f these attaks, iiate where a hw ISIS evepe aitia eaership es. By the e f 2013, ISIS ha ikey evepe miitary heaquarters mmai peratis i separate zes i rther diyaa, the Jazeera esert west f Tikrit, a the Thar Thar rei rth f Abu ghraib. A three mmas were ativey eae i itimiati ampais t erae state seurity fres by the e f 2013, a preue t estabishi tr f urba terrai.
13
I Jauary 2014, ISIS exeute a ru assaut up the Abar ities f Faujah a Ramai.
14
Simutaeusy, separate ISIS fres i Syria siate wester psitis i Aepp Prvie a estabishe mpete tr i Raqqa.
15
drawi the ISF it a mai ert uter-attak i Abar a xi them there, ISIS eae i separate attaks i rther Baha a Samarra, iiati that the fres require t eae i the Ramai-Faujah ht were istit frm thse that u perate i the rther Baha Bets.
16
likewise, the ISIS easter fres attempte severa times t estabish tr f urba terrai betwee Sueima Be a Saia, eve attaki the suther Baquba suburb f Buhriz i Marh 2014.
17
With the Iraqi Seurity Fres eae i the west a east, ISIS eae its rther fres i eary Jue 2014 t seize Msu, Tikrit, Baiji, Hawija, a Ta Afar.
18
This ampai has sie expae t the upper Euphrates, with ISIS estabishi tr i Rawa, Aa, a Qaim.
19
Aitia ISIS fres ikey mve frm these uter Abar atis t take tr f Rutba, ear the Jraia brer Jue 23, 2014.
20
The ISIS ampai i Iraq verame the Iraqi Seurity Fres i the rth a west, the mbat reaiess f whih ISIS attaks a iatteti by
WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG3
BAcKgRoUndER | ISIS BATTlE PlAn FoR BAgHdAd | JESSIcA d. lEWIS | JUnE 27, 2014
the Iraqi vermet ha erae.
21
Meawhie, the ISIS easter mma seize tr f Sueima Be a earby viaes i juti with the iitia assaut up Msu.
22
This rms that ISIS a attak arss mutipe mmas a mutipe frts simutaeusy, whie hi further psitis i Faujah a Ramai. The fres rth a suth f Faujah i the viiity f Thar Thar a Jurf a-Sakhar have bee quiet uri this rther a easter esive. It is therefre eessary t rear the ptetia fr ISIS fres rth, west, a suth f Baha, ummitte at this time, t exeute esives ear Baha. give the ampai esi sphistiati eviee by ISIS t ate, a ive the ra sae f their stratei estate, it is ikey that ISIS wi evep a stratey t attak Baha fr maximum eet t rippe Iraq a prevet a uter-attak by the Iraqi Seurity Fres. It is as imprtat t reize that ISIS ikey raws histri memry frm AQI frmer eaership reease frm priss, suh that the frmer AQI pa t upy the Baha Bets i rer t tr Baha, may sti be reevat t their urret batte pa. It is as pssibe that ISIS ha a stratey fr Baha prir t the fa f Msu that ISIS must w ajust, base up uatiipate eves f Shi’a miitia mbiizati a Iraia ivvemet i Baha efeses. nevertheess, there are ways that ISIS a pursue this utimate bjetive espite these irumstaes, a ISIS is ikey pai aaist these kw straits.
HAS THE ISIS OFFENSIVE CULMINATED?
The ISIS urba esive whih bea Jue 10, 2014 i Msu has t umiate. ISIS shifte the mai ert f its urba esive Jue 21 t the Euphrates rrir that ets Abar prvie t Syria, seizi the tws f Rawa, Aa, a Qaim a the Euphrates rrir. ISIS wi ikey tiue its Euphrates mai ert uti its fres i these tws se the ap betwee Haitha a Ramai, seuri a f the tws i Abar fr ISIS tr. ISIS wi arry its mmetum frwar t wrest Abar frm the Iraqi Army mpetey. Seizi Ramai may be the a bjetive f this ampai phase beause the ity is the symbi a rea hme f the Abar Awakei. The urret esives aterati betwee Abar a rther Iraq are fuametay ike a part f the same ampai esi. We have areay bserve this aterati i eary 2014, whe ISIS ute shapi peratis fr the Msu ampai whie pai its mai mbat ert i Faujah.This ISIS rther esive brke Iraq it three ris f tr. This was ikey part f the ISIS vera batte pa, beause ri-shape setr esiati is harateristi f the
ISIS Control ZonesISIS Attack ZonesISIS Support Zones
This map depicts ISIS support, attack and control zones as of June 23, 2014. While the ISIS urban oensive that began in Mosul has primarily secured cities deep within the Sunni heartland, there are also ISIS forces positioned near to Baghdad that may present future threats.
|