The case for a new risk category
Risks that threaten human civilisation
GlobalChallenges
12
Published February 2015 by Global Challenges Foundation. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reect those of Global Challenges Foundation.
Any inaccuracies in the report remain the responsibility of the authors. The material and the geographical designations in this report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Global Challenges Foundation, concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. For comments and/or queries on this report, please contact the co-authors:
Dennis Pamlin
Executive Project Manager Global RisksGlobal Challenges Foundationdennis@globalchallenges.orghttp://globalchallenges.orgor
Stuart Armstrong
Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Universitystuart.armstrong@philosophy.ox.ac.ukhttp://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/
Dr Nick Beckstead
, Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Kennette Benedict
, Executive Director and Publisher of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Oliver Bettis
, pricing actuary Munich RE and fellow of the Chartered Insurance Institute and the Institute & Faculty of Actuaries.
Dr Eric Drexler
, Academic Visitor, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Madeleine Enarsson
, Transformative Catalyst, 21st Century Frontiers
Dr Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
, Senior Academic Manager, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford and Executive Director, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge
Martin Hellman
, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University
Pan Jiahua
, Director of the Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS); professor of economics at CASS; vice president Chinese Society for Ecological Economics; member National Expert Panel on Climate Change and National Foreign Policy Advisory Committee, China
Aled Jones
, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) at Anglia Ruskin University
Nick Mabey
, Chief Executive and a founder director of E3G (Third Generation Environmentalism)
Jennifer Morgan
, Founder & Co-Convener, the nance lab
Prof Vincent Müller
, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Robert de Neufville
, Professional Associate, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Prof Toby Ord
, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Jules Peck
, Founding Partner, Jericho Chambers; Trustee, New Economics Foundation
Dr Anders Sandberg
, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Nick Silver
, director of Callund Consulting and founder and director of the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI)
Andrew Simms
, Author, Fellow at the New Economics Foundation and Chief Analyst at Global Witness
Andrew Snyder-Beattie
, Academic Project Manager, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
James Taplan
, Principal Sustainability Advisor, Forum for the Future
Raj Thamotheram
, CEO, Preventable Surprises
Nathan Wolfe
, Director of Global Viral and the Lorry I. Lokey Visiting Professor in Human Biology at Stanford University.
Liang Yin
, Investment Consultant at Towers Watson
The main authors of this report are
Dennis Pamlin
, Executive Project Manager, Global Challenges Foundation and
Dr Stuart Armstrong
, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford. Dr Stuart Armstrong wrote the chapter covering the twelve global challenges, under the direction of Dennis Pamlin who served as project manager and himself wrote and edited the rest of the report.
Seth Baum
, Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
and aliate researcher at the Center for
Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University, also played an important role as he helped develop the methodology chapter regarding the selection of the global challenges with
potentially innite impacts as well as
providing helpful input throughout the process. But the report is the result of a collaborative approach where many people have provided invaluable contributions.The authors would therefore like to thank a few people in particular. First and foremost
László Szombatfalvy
, chairman of Global Challenges Foundation, whose work is the basis for this report and whose guidance on all levels has been invaluable. The rest of the board of the Global Challenges Foundation have
also contributed in many dierent ways,
in particular
Johan Rockström
has provided important input regarding the structure and methodology. Outside the foundation
Prof Nick Bostrom
, Professor & Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford, who initiated the possibility of working with the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, played a particularly important role.
Patrick McSharry
, head of Smith School’s Catastrophe Risk Financing research area, provided invaluable input regarding complex systems and ways that the economic
system can respond to innite impacts.
Alex Kirby
also played a key part as he did so much more than proofread the text; the report would hardly be possible to read without his help.Others that must be mentioned, including those who participated in the workshop on January 14th 2014, at the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI), University of Oxford and the workshop at
the Munich RE oce in London, January
15th 2014, and helped provide input
regarding the economic and nance
aspects, include (in alphabetical order):
Global Challenges – Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation – The case for a new category of risks
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